EMEP: monitoring and evaluation of transboundary air pollution

- Measurements & Modelling - Emission inventory - Integration

- SOx, NOx, NHx, VOC, PM - HM - POP - CO, CH4

W o rk in g G ro u p o n E ffe c ts

IC P F o re s ts

T a sk F o rce

S te e rin g B o d y o f E M E P

Im p le m e n ta tio n C o m m itte eE x e c u tiv e B o d y

W o rk in g G ro u p o n S tra te g ie s a n d R e v ie w

P ro g ra m m e C o o rd in a tin g

C e n tre

IC P W a te rs

T a sk F o rce

P ro g ra m m e C e n tre

IC P M a te r ia ls

T a sk F o rce

M a in R e se a rch

C e n tre

IC P V e g e ta tio n T a sk F o rce

P ro g ra m m e C o o rd in a tin g

C e n tre

IC P In te g ra te d M o n ito rin g

T a sk F o rce

P ro g ra m m e C e n tre

IC P M o d e ll in g a n d M a p p in g

T a sk F o rce

C o o rd in a tio n C e n tre fo r

E ffe c ts

T a sk F o rce o n

H e a lth

W H O B o n n

T a sk F o rce o n E m iss io n In ve n to rie s

a n d P ro je c tio n s

T a sk F o rce o n M e a su re m e n ts a n d

M o d e ll in g

C h e m ica l C o o rd in a tin g

C e n tre

M e te o ro lo g ica l S yn th e s iz in g C e n tre -

W e s t

M e te o ro lo g ica l S yn th e s iz in g C e n tre -

E a s t

T a sk F o rce o n In te g ra te d A sse ssm e n t

M o d e ll in g

C e n tre fo r In te g ra te d A sse ssm e n t M o d e llin g

T a sk F o rce o n P O P s

N e tw o rk o f E xp e rts o n B e n e f its a n d E co n o m ic

In s tru m e n ts

E xp e r t G ro u p o n T e ch n o -e co n o m ic

Is sue s

T a sk F o rce o n H e a vy M e ta ls

E xp e r t G ro u p o n P a rticu la te M a tte r

T a sk F o rce o n R e a c tive N itro g e n

T a sk F o rce o n H e m isp he r ic T ran sp o rt

o f A ir P o llu tio n

Organization of the ConventionOrganization of the Convention

Emissions 50*50km Meteorology 50*50km

→ →

→

EMEP Unified Chemical transport model – MSC-w

Air concentrations ofNO, NO2, NH3, NH4+, NO3-,HNO3

Reduced and oxidized nitrogen deposition

ChemistryDry/Wet removal

Validation against measurements

- CCC coordinates measurements at EMEP sites- Work guided by TF Measurements and Modelling

AL AM AT BY BE BA BG HR CY CZ DK EE FI FR GE DE GR HU IS IE IT KZ LV LT LUAL 53 0 0 0 0 16 28 1 0 1 0 0 0 3 0 3 19 6 0 0 28 0 0 0 0AM 0 5 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0AT 1 0 55 0 7 14 3 12 0 49 0 0 0 30 0 96 2 39 0 0 81 0 0 0 0BY 1 0 4 322 6 26 47 4 0 60 4 10 3 14 0 141 5 80 0 1 19 2 12 50 0BE 0 0 0 0 183 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 121 0 23 0 1 0 2 2 0 0 0 1BA 4 0 3 0 1 503 17 18 0 13 0 0 0 8 0 16 6 46 0 0 65 0 0 0 0BG 10 0 2 1 0 48 1281 4 0 8 0 0 0 4 0 12 50 34 0 0 32 1 0 0 0HR 2 0 5 0 1 120 12 80 0 15 0 0 0 10 0 19 3 57 0 0 70 0 0 0 0CY 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0CZ 1 0 15 0 11 18 8 7 0 453 1 0 0 30 0 313 1 69 0 1 24 0 0 1 0DK 0 0 0 1 8 2 0 0 0 9 59 0 0 13 0 56 0 3 1 2 2 0 0 1 0EE 0 0 0 8 1 2 3 0 0 8 2 54 7 2 0 24 0 4 0 0 1 0 11 10 0FI 0 0 1 12 5 4 7 1 0 16 8 63 205 9 0 63 1 10 0 1 3 1 9 15 0

FR 0 0 3 0 80 7 4 3 0 28 2 0 0 1648 0 111 1 10 0 17 96 0 0 0 3DE 0 0 19 2 234 15 5 5 0 206 17 0 0 425 0 2012 3 34 0 10 68 0 0 2 7GR 27 0 1 0 0 27 501 2 1 4 0 0 0 5 0 6 671 16 0 0 51 0 0 0 0HU 2 0 12 1 2 84 32 30 0 46 0 0 0 11 0 53 5 607 0 0 58 0 0 1 0IS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 24 1 0 0 0 0 0IE 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 6 0 5 0 0 0 315 1 0 0 0 0IT 10 0 9 1 4 81 30 35 0 20 1 0 0 95 0 38 17 47 0 0 1229 0 0 1 0

LV 0 0 1 19 2 4 6 1 0 16 5 12 3 5 0 42 1 10 0 1 3 0 45 46 0LT 0 0 1 19 3 5 10 1 0 25 5 4 2 8 0 69 1 15 0 1 4 0 11 107 0LU 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1MT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0NL 0 0 0 0 97 0 0 0 0 4 1 0 0 58 0 42 0 1 0 2 2 0 0 0 0NO 0 0 1 2 11 3 2 1 0 18 16 3 4 23 0 78 0 9 0 6 5 0 1 3 0PL 2 0 13 20 32 52 54 14 0 392 19 3 2 61 0 1094 4 201 0 3 47 0 4 22 1PT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 4 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0MD 1 0 0 2 0 8 30 1 0 4 0 0 0 1 0 6 3 14 0 0 5 1 0 0 0RO 12 0 6 6 2 147 399 13 0 43 1 0 0 12 1 61 41 233 0 0 81 2 0 2 0RU 12 3 10 353 18 99 440 14 6 151 19 254 74 51 54 343 64 214 0 3 103 182 53 97 0SK 1 0 8 1 2 28 17 9 0 56 1 0 0 7 0 57 2 224 0 0 24 0 0 1 0SI 0 0 4 0 0 7 2 20 0 5 0 0 0 5 0 8 1 17 0 0 47 0 0 0 0

ES 0 0 1 0 4 7 4 2 0 7 0 0 0 64 0 15 1 4 0 4 35 0 0 0 0SE 0 0 2 9 14 10 7 2 0 39 48 20 37 27 0 150 1 25 0 4 9 1 6 13 0CH 0 0 1 0 5 1 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 55 0 18 0 1 0 0 59 0 0 0 0MK 19 0 0 0 0 13 63 1 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 2 25 7 0 0 14 0 0 0 0TR 10 2 1 3 1 35 443 3 35 9 0 0 0 6 9 15 124 27 0 0 61 4 0 1 0UA 7 0 9 89 7 112 288 17 1 104 4 5 1 23 6 187 40 321 0 1 80 10 3 14 0GB 0 0 0 0 21 1 0 1 0 10 5 0 0 72 0 52 0 2 0 90 4 0 0 1 0YU 19 0 3 1 1 258 105 14 0 19 0 0 0 9 0 23 23 98 0 0 69 0 0 0 0

Blame matrix

(EMEP)

Blame matrix

(EMEP)

Transboundary air pollution in 2005 Information available: EMEP Country Reports

Country reports for 46 Parties to the Convention,MSC-W Data Notes 1/07

– Transboundary data by main pollutants (S, N, O3) and PM. by H. Klein, A. Benedictow and H. Fagerli

– For the 8 EECCA countries, these reports are available in Russian

Information available

• Maps of countribution to different regions

• Maps of transboundary contributions in each country

• Pies with source-allocation

Origin of PM2.5 in Ukraine

New developments: http://www.emep.int/OpenSource

New developments: Extension of the EMEP grid, Stage 1 -

2008

The extension will take place through two stages:Step 1: Extended EMEP 50×50 km2 grid (132×159 gridcells)

New developments: EMEP model bridges the scales

Stage 1: 10x10 km2

Stage 2: Global 50x50 km2 (2012)

New developments: Global scale Unified EMEP modelCoordinated development at MSC-W and MSC-E

• Report 2008 with provide results for 2006 in latitude-longitude, with 0.5º x 0.5º resolution

• Same model as regional Unified EMEP model, but different grid projection and input data.

TF Hemispheric Air Pollution

2009 Assessment Report• State of knowledge concerning intercontinental transport of air

pollutants in the Northern Hemisphere• Covering all pollutants of interest under the LRTAP Convention• Addressing identified policy-relevant science questions

2007 Interim Report• Significance of intercontinental transport of air pollutants within the

Northern Hemisphere for attaining the objectives of the 1999 Gothenburg Protocol

Dentener HTAP overview08.05.2008 Madrid

TFHAP: model intercomparison: Annual mean surface O3 changein EU from 20% reductions of domestic NOx emissions

Large geographical variability masked by regional mean statistics

Task Force Emission Inventories and Projections

- emission guidelines - emission data collection - verification - review of informative reports - projections

(several experts groups including agricultural emissions)

Emission densities 2005 EMEP/MSC-W

NOx NH3NOx NH3

Uncertainties in emissions are largest in EECCA countries

Differences between official and non-official emission estimates by

– 5% for SOx, – 20% for NOx, – 20% for NMVOC, – 30% for NH3, – 50% for PPM2.5 and – 60% for PPMcoarse.

msc-wemep

Task Force Integrated Assessment Modelling

Centre for IntegratedAssessment Modelling (IIASA)

RAINS: a multi pollutant multi effect framework

Economicactivities

Measuresoptions

Agriculture

NOx emission

SO2 emission

industry

Energy

NH4 deposition

S deposition

VOC emission

NH3 emission

Transport

Exceedance CL acidification

Exceedance CL Nitrogen NOy deposition

O3 production

NH3 policy

NOx/VOC

VOC policy

Costs

Exceedance CL ozone

Targets

Primary PM concentrationOther PM policy Primary PM

emission

Secondary aerosols

PM exposurehumans

SO2 policy

NOx policy

O3 exposurehumans

Impacts

Work guided by the Task Force on Integrated Assessment Modelling

From RAINS to GAINS

√√√√√- via aerosols

√

PM

√√√- via OH

√√√√Radiative forcing:- direct

√√Eutrophication

√√√Acidification

√√√Vegetation damage:O3

√√√O3

√√√√Health impacts: PM

CFCsHFCsSF6

N2OCH4CO2NH3VOCNOxSO2

EutrophicationPercent of ecosystems area with excess nitrogen deposition

2000 CLE 2020