Targeted research on the global N cycle: towards an International Nitrogen Management System (INMS)

Clare HowardCentre for Ecology & Hydrology, Edinburgh

GPNM Steering Committee Meeting9 Dec 2014, Washington DC

OverviewWhat is INMS and why is there the need for

such a project?The global policy perspective – how and

where to tackle the issues?How does INMS fit into all this and how is

the project structured?Where are we now and the existing landscape

The big ideaJoined up management of the nitrogen cycle

would strengthen the common cause of international waters & other global challenges

What would a global science policy support process for nitrogen look like?

What are the issues to connect?What are the main, research, demonstration

and communication challenges?

Nitrogen oxides(NOx)

Nitrous Oxide(N2O)

Ammonia(NH3)

Leached Nitrate (NO3

-)

Further emissionof NOx & N2O

carrying on the cascade

Natural ecosystems

Ammonium nitrate in rain (NH4NO3)

Nitrate in streams,groundwater &

coastal seas

High temperaturecombustion& industry

Nr

Livestock farmingfor food

Nr in manure

Eventual denitrification

to N2

Simplified view of the Nitrogen Cascade

Unintended N flows

N form in the cascade

Terrestrial Eutrophication

Freshwater Eutrophication

Greenhouse gas balance

Particulate Matter

Tropospheric ozone formation

Stratospheric ozone loss

Soil acidification

Urban air quality

Marine Eutrophication

Environmental concern from Nr

Fertilizermanufacture

Crops for food &animal feed

Crop biological nitrogen fixation

Intended N flow

Five key threats

The WAGES of too much nitrogen

Water qualityAir qualityGreenhouse balanceEcosystems Soil quality

European Nitrogen Assessment, 2011 & Our Nutrient World, 2013

Past change – future risksGlobal fertilizer use

Sutton and Bleeker Nature 2013based on FAO projections (Alexandratos & Bruinsma, 2012)

UnintendedN fixation incombustion

NOx capture& reuse

NUE combustion 5

Humans

Nr input by combustion

Energy Consumption & Transport

Choices

4 8

Full Chain NUEN,PNutrientResource

N&P Fertilizer

& Biological NitrogenFixation

Manure & sewage

fertilizer products

NUE sewage NUE manures

3

7

Feedsharvest

Livestockproduction

Foodharvest

NUEfeedcrop

NUE food crop

NUE animal

Food Consumption& Diet Choices

NUE food supply

Humans

1

2

1

69

Humans

Crop NUEN,P

10

Spatial optimization & integration

Nitrogenfor environment, food & energy security

• There is no global treaty that links the many benefits and threats of the altered N cycle.

• How can the different frameworks work together?

Key MEAs• UN Framework Convention on Climate Change• UN Convention on Biological Diversity• Montreal Protocol on stratospheric ozone• LRTAP convention and other regional agreements• Global Programme of Action for Protection of the Marine

Environment from Land-based Activities (GPA) and regional agreements

Parallel TracksTrack 1: International governance involving

countries and linking nitrogen challenges of too much and too little.

Track 2: A better coordinated science-policy support process – gathering evidence to support decision makers (INMS)

Track 3: Basic and applied field researchTrack 4: Extension, training, action etc.

UNEP – GEF INMS-targeted research

Outline proposal ($6M + $40M partner contributions)

Targeted Research on Global nitrogen cycle, toward the International Nitrogen Management System (INMS)

Opportunities- Indicator refinement, moving to operational delivery to

support countries, inc benchmarking- Sharing and development of mitigation and

management practices – understanding barriers- Regional demonstration on contrasting challenges, e.g.

Lake Victoria basin, East Asia, South Asia, East Europe

C1: Tools and

methods for understanding

the N cycle

C3: Regional

demonstration & verification

C4: Awareness raising &

knowledge sharing

C2:Global & regional quantification of N

use, flows, impacts & benefits of improved

practices

Components Diagram for INMS

Informing

modelling

requirements

Data need

& concepts

Opportunities,Local/region priorities,

Policy context, Local data,

Barriers-to-change

Improved management practices, Mitigation, Adaptation

Options & Scenarios, including

Cost-Benefit-Analysis

Improved basis for transformational actions

on N management

Development of policy homes,

Public awareness,Consensus building,

Regional DemonstrationsGaining an understanding of the nitrogen

issues specific to a regionImplementing management plans (during

project lifetime) to address the problemsCharting progress madeSharing best practice and knowledge

gained, across the projectWill also connect with regional modelling

activities

Regional DemonstrationsShould cover the four ‘cases’ outlined in the

PIFExisting activities

maximise achievement develop sustainability

3 or more countries - knowledge exchangeNetwork - scientific through to extension

organisationsCore team of director and 1-2 post-doctoral

personnelReasonable budget for travel for the network

Developing countries:

Excess nitrogen

East Asia(western Pacific seaboard)

China, Japan, S. Korea, Philippines

Network: INI East Asia, GPNM, OECD

Policy: PEMSEA, GPA

South AsiaIndia, Nepal, Sri

Lanka, BangladeshLead: INI South

AsiaPolicy: SACEP

South AmericaBrazil, tbc

Implementation: INI South America

Policy: Links to GPA

Economies in transition

Dniester. Dnieper, (part of) DanubeUkraine, Moldova, Romania, BelarusImplementation: EPN-EECCA, TFRN

Policy: UNECE -CLRTAP & Transboundary Waters, Black Sea Commission, Danube River

Basin Commission

Dniepr

Dniestr

Danube

Black Sea

Dniestr Dniepr Danubebasin area km² 71 442 503 988 785 306 runoff mm/yr 107 119 259 pop density inhab/km² 102 61 102 %agricultural area % 75 63 58 Net Inputs to wtshd kgN/km²/yr 2 264 2 660 3 605 N delivery at outlet kgN/km²/yr 132 99 468

Lake VictoriaKenya, Tanzania, Rwanda, BurundiLead: INI Africa

Policy: Lake Victoria

Commission

Developing countries:

Insufficient nitrogen

Developed countries:

Excess nitrogen

Western Europe, Atlantic Seaboard

France, Spain, PortugalUnfunded – supported

through existing projects, adding value to the global network.

Regional DemonstrationsDevelopment meetings

Japan, February 2015Ukraine, Spring 2015

BASF Fireside MeetingRegional case studiesScientists, policymakers, farmersSynergies with INMS

Toward anInternational

NitrogenManagement

System (INMS)

FLAG STAG

PANS

Identified N Risks

- Too much- Too littleN Fluxes, Levels

& DistributionExtent of

threats

Development of

Indicators

Options for Action

Measurements, data & statistics

Measurements, data & statistics

Hydrological,meteorological & bio-geochemical models

Biological & biogeochemical

models

System & Integrated Assessment Models

Data on Cost & Benefits

Valuation of benefits & threats

Programs & Policy Options

Technical support to GPA Information exchange

Monitor Progress

Evaluation of barriers to change

Technical, financial & socio-political data

BID

CBAG

STOAG

Scenarios& Goals

New technologies & other options;

Pilot Demonstration

Potential Working Group

Key Task

Measurement & data needs

Models needed

Policy Frameworks & key stakeholder

processes

WP1: Review existing N

biogeochemical, impact & integrated assessment

models

WP2: Develop global framework of the priority N-related issues to

be linked

WP3: Assess extent to which current models

deliver aspects of the global N framework

WP4: Evaluate options for linking component models

and datasets toward global &

regional N integrated assessment

WP5: Foster collaboration between key

modelling partners, considering short-

and long-term solutions

WP7: Develop recommendations for future global

& regional N modelling

WP8: Develop options for long-

term INMS durability and international authorization

WP6: Identify and pilot priority linkages between

key models

INMS-pp Integrated Assessment modelling for nitrogen

INMS – building up to PPG•PIF Development Phase

• Distribution and collation of pro-formas to express interest - co-financing

• Final submission in 2013• PIF agreed this year• Ongoing discussions with potential

demonstration areas – India, Eastern Europe

•Post PIF development• Request for updated pro-formas July 2014• Further development of demonstration

activities

Project Preparation Grant PhaseMilestones & events (now until July 2015)

Addressing GEF and STAP comments (at PIF approval)

• Avoiding overlap with GNF (Annex to FSP)

• Details on Policy Options for track 1 (FSP)

• Strengthen stakeholder participation/communication processes (C4)

• Better explain the global trade of N based products

• INMS sustainability plan (as part of review of ‘homes for nitrogen’/FSP formulation)

INMS –PPG TimescaleCo-financing commitment written confirmation

By June 2015

CEO endorsement documentation validation meeting or thru circulation

June 2015

STAP Review of CEO endorsement package July 2015UNEP’s review by the UNEP Project Review Committee

July 2015

Submission to GEF Sec for CEO endorsement

August 2015

Launching of the FSP at IWC8 October 2015

INMS EngagementFull Partner meeting

13th & 14th April, Lisbon, Portugal (tbc)Further discussion on commitment of co-financing,

refining demonstration activities, developing project components

Followed by a meeting of the UNECE Task Force on Reactive Nitrogen

INMS and Integrated Assessment ModellingINMSpp Meeting, 5th& 6th May, EdinburghFollowed by a meeting of the UNECE Task Force on

Integrated Assessment ModellingOpen meetings

INMS EngagementWebsite

Core place for information exchangeDocuments and discussionSection on demonstration areas – to refine the

approach – open for comments by the communityList of partners to the project and other groups

NewsletterMonthly e-mailed newsletter, starting this month,

updates to partners and all other interested parties

Pro-formaSubmit if not done so to establish an interest

International Nitrogen Initiative

INIUNECE

Task Force on Reactive Nitrogen

TFRN

GPNMUNEP/GPA

Global Partnership on Nutrient Management

OECDWorking Party on Nitrogen Indicators

INMSGEF/UNEP/INI

Targeted Research toward International Nitrogen Management System

Views on

NUENitrogen Use

Efficiency

EUNitrogen

Expert Panel

EU-NEP

IRPAN...CBD N indicator...

Nitrogen: the existing landscape

INI & Nitrogen AssessmentsIGBP-SCOPE-Future Earth: science communityRegional Centres

European Nitrogen Assessment (2011)US Nitrogen Assessment (2012)Africa, South Asia, Latin America, East

Asia (work in progress)

What about global assessment?

UNEP: Global Partnership on Nutrient Management (GPNM)Focus on agriculture, linking N P

and other nutrientsEmphasis on practice improvement,

and sharing between stakeholders globally (industry, science, UN).

Now has a Task Group on NUE (focused on field scale)

UNECE Task Force on Reactive Nitrogen (TFRN)

UNECE CLRTAP: Convention on Long range Transboundary Air Pollution

N and air pollution – but toward integrated approachGothenburg Protocol, Annex IX, Ammonia Guidance Doc,

Ammonia Framework Code – adopted yesterday in Geneva, Guidance Doc N budgets

Framework Code adopted (yesterday)WGSR Dec 2015 – full day with all countries in UNECE

on Agricultural Air PollutionENA reporting, with input NEU, NinE and COSTNitrogen and Food, scenariosNitrogen and EECCA countries a key priorityNECD National Emission Ceilings Directive–

Framework Code revision and Annex III.

OECD – regional N indicatorsAgricultural N balances over territoriesMove towards regional indicators: economy

wide N indicatorNitrogen to complement carbon indicator set

Others...IRPAN: International Research Programme

on Agricultural nitrogen – under development; strong biotech focus e.g. a world without fertilizers....?

UN-CBD: Convention on Biological Diversity: nitrogen indicator

There are definitely more...

Multiple relevance of the nitrogen challenge

Biodiversity:

CBD

Marine:GPA

+ regional

Stratosphere:

Montreal

Protocol

Air Quality: LRTAP + regional

INMSInternational

Nitrogen Management

System(Science Support Process linking

threats & benefits)

UNEP &

UNEA

Overarching Goals includingEconomy Wide Nitrogen Use Efficiency

More food and energy with less pollution

Climate:UNFCC

C

SDGs

FAO WMOWHO

INI

Major Groups

National Champion

s

GPNM

Thankyou – and questions!