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Global Nitrogen Assessment: from Our Nutrient World to the
International Nitrogen Management System (INMS)
Mark Sutton Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Edinburgh
CAPER 40,
14 04 14 Lancaster
TFRN
INI Nitrogen Assessments
• European Nitrogen Assessment (2011) • US Nitrogen Assessment (2012) • Africa, South Asia, Latin America, East
Asia (work in progress)
• What about global assessment?
Nitrogen oxides (NOx)
Nitrous Oxide (N2O)
Ammonia (NH3)
Leached Nitrate (NO3
-)
Further emission of NOx & N2O
carrying on the cascade
Natural ecosystems
Ammonium nitrate in rain (NH4NO3)
Nitrate in streams, groundwater &
coastal seas
High temperature combustion & industry
Nr
Livestock farming for food
Nr in manure
Eventual denitrification
to N2
Simplified view of the Nitrogen Cascade
Unintended N flows
N form in the cascade
Terrestrial Eutrophication
Freshwater Eutrophication
Greenhouse gas balance
Particulate Matter
Tropospheric ozone formation
Stratospheric ozone loss
Soil acidification
Urban air quality
Marine Eutrophication Environmental
concern from Nr
Fertilizer manufacture
Crops for food & animal feed
Crop biological nitrogen fixation
Intended N flow
The five key threats of excess Nitrogen
The WAGES of too much nitrogen Water quality Air quality Greenhouse balance Ecosystems Soil quality
Summary of N flows in Europe
Humannutrit.
agricult soils
Livestock farming
Atmospheric N2 pool
Crop production
Atmdepos
17.6
7.1
11.8
1.5
2.14.5
2.3
1.0
3.1
Net import of food & feed
2Crop N2fix
Fertilizers
11.23.8
NH3,NOx& N2O
emission
Denitrifi-cation
N2 fixindust
& traffic3.4
Export by rivers to the sea
Net atmosph. export
9.32.4
3.5
6.84
6
13.8
0.4
4.75.8
3.7
0.83.2
0.1
Semi-nat. soils
Nat N2fix
Wood exp.
Atmospheric NH3, NOx, N2O
wwt
Leaching & runoff
0.3
2.41.4
0.2
3.8
0.20.2
4.7
6
4
3
2
1
5
7
Nitrogen Science-Policy Engagement
UNECE Task Force Reactive Nitrogen of the CLRTAP – Gothenburg Options; Ammonia Guidance Document; Nitrogen Budgets, Nitrogen and Food; NECD support
UNEP: Global Partnership on Nutrient Management (GPNM)
UN Convention on Biological Diversity (Aichi N deposition indicator development)
OECD: Developing high level N indicators for economy – environment interactions
World Bank: Global Oceans Partnership: WG Nutrients – where should they invest?
• ...
UNECE Ammonia mitigation in the Gothenburg Protocol revision
• Ammonia Guidance Document – ECE/EB.AIR/120 at EB Decision 2012 L.9. – Coordinated with Gothenburg Protocol Annex IX – Publish and disseminate glossy version during 2014.
• Annex IX: left unchanged in GP review – Efforts needed from 2015, 2016...? – Key issues picked up again in European Commission’s
proposal for NECD revision (new NECD Annex III) – What would be an appropriate air quality limit value for
ammonia concentration?
5 priorities for ammonia in revision of the
UNECE Gothenburg Protocol (1=highest priority)
1. Low emission techniques for land spreading of cattle/pig/poultry manures and urea fertilizer
2. Animal feeding strategies, inc phase feeding 3. Covers on new slurry stores 4. Farm N balance on demonstration farms 5. Low emission new pig & poultry housing
Slurry spreading: a wide range of low-emission
techniques are available
The car and the exhaust pipe…
Splash Plate Spreader - 1950s technology
Trailing Shoe Slot Injector
Trailing Hose
EU benefit-cost ratios for NH3 and NOx mitigation
Van Grinsven et al. (Environmental Science and Technology, 2013)
NH3 NOx Commitment Agreed Geneva, May 2012
30% decrease in NOx 2% decrease in NH3
2010-2020
£650-a-year nitrogen pollution ‘could be reduced by eating less meat’ Press Comment on the European Nitrogen Assessment Metro 10 April 2011
Nitrogen and a Demitarian Europe? Example scenario of 50% consumption reduction
Aspect Unit Reference -50% meat, dairy and eggs Protein Average daily intake g cap-1 day-1 83 75 Proportion of animal origin % 60% 36% Red meat Average daily intake g cap-1 day-1 88 47 Compared with the RMDI % 207% 107%
Reference High prices scenario
Greening scenario
Environment Total losses of Nr (EU) Losses of NH3 N to air Losses of Nr to water Losses of N2O N to air
Gg year-1 6.5 2.8 3.3 0.4
4.1 1.6 2.1 0.3
3.8 (-42%) 1.6 (-43%) 2.0 (-39%) 0.2 (-45%)
GHG emissions (EU)4 Tg CO2eq yr-1 464 347 268 (-42%) ( NUE5 food system (EU) % 22 47 41 (+86%) Agriculture Soy imports (as beans) Tg year-1 34 8 8 (-76%) Cereal exports Tg year-1 3 174 54 (+1700%) Additional production of bioenergy EJ year-1 - - 2.3
Westhoek and the TFRN-EPNF (in press)
UnintendedN fixation incombustion
NOx capture& reuse
NUE combustion 5
Humans
Nr input by combustion
Energy Consumption & Transport
Choices
4 8
Full Chain NUEN,PNutrientResource
N&P Fertilizer
& Biological NitrogenFixation
Manure & sewage
fertilizer products
NUE sewage NUE manures 3
7
Feedsharvest
Livestockproduction
Foodharvest
NUEfeedcrop
NUE food crop
NUE animal
Food Consumption& Diet Choices
NUE food supply
Humans
1
2
1
69
Humans
Crop NUEN,P
10
Spatial optimization & integration
“20:20 for 2020” 20% better NUE: saving 20 Mt N per yr by 2020
Benefits expressed here as N saving / ha per year (Full-chain NUE)
N saving as kg N per ha per yr
Bottom line for the Green Nutrient Economy ($billion/year) Net Benefit 170= Fert Saving 23 + Env+Health 160 –Implementation 12
How do we strengthen the global scientific support process?
• Key policy forum: UNEP Global Programme of Action for the protection of the marine environment from land-based activities (GPA).
• Other forums: CBD, FCCC, Montreal Protocol, CLRTAP, linking regional efforts, links to IPBES, IPCC.
• What science support should be provided...
Parallel Tracks
• Track 1: International governance involving countries and linking nitrogen challenges of too much and too little.
• Track 2: A better coordinated science-policy support process – gathering evidence to support decision makers (INMS)
• Track 3: Basic and applied field research • Track 4: Extension, training, action etc.
Outlook with UNEP and the Global Environment Facility (IW)
• Outline proposal ($6M + $40M partner contribs) • Global nitrogen cycle, toward the International
Nitrogen Management System (INMS) • Opportunities
- Indicator refinement, moving to operational delivery to support countries, inc benchmarking
- Sharing and development of mitigation and management practices – understanding barriers
- Regional demonstration on contrasting challenges, e.g. Lake Victoria basin, East Asia, South Asia, East Europe
Toward an International
Nitrogen Management
System (INMS)
GPA: Global Programme of Action for the Protection of the Marine Environment from Land-based Activities
FLAG STAG
PANS
Identified N Risks
-Too much- Too little
N Fluxes, Levels & Distribution-Water, Air, Land
-Agricultural-Industrial, -Trade
Extent of threatsWater, Air, Soil
Pollution, Climate, Biodiversity, Food &
Energy Security
Development of Indicators
Budgets & balances Efficiency IndicatorsKey Levels & Effects
Options for Action
-New Technologies-Efficiency measures
-Citizens choices
Measurements, data & statistics
Measurements, data & statistics
Hydrological,meteorological & bio-geochemical models
Biological & biogeochemical
models
System & Integrated Assessment Models
Data on Cost & Benefits
Valuation of benefits &
threats- Food, Energy & Environ security Programs &
Policy Options-Integration of key
messages-Linking global and regional analysis
Technical support to GPA-Report status & trends
-Options with costs-benefits-Successes & barriers
-Technical advice
Information exchange with other science-policy
processes & stakeholders:Inc. reporting of co-benefits to UNEP, CBD, IPCC/FCCC, IPBES, FAO, WHO, UNECE and other
regional conventions etc
Monitor Progress Successes & limitations
Evaluation of barriers to change
Technical, financial & socio-political data
BID
CBAG
STOAG
Scenarios& Goals
New technologies & other options;
Pilot Demonstration
Next steps • INMS at project preparation phase, developing
through 2014 to start 2015. Preparatory action on developing global nitrogen integrated assessment
• An INI project with UNEP, OECD, GPA, GPNM, CBD, CLRTAP, Montreal Protocol, Future Earth etc
• Should improving full-chain NUE be embedded in the Millenium Development Goals?
• Could your country become a nitrogen champion in the international arena? e.g. OECD 2016 – why would your Finance Minister be at the table?