Taller de Prospectiva Del Programa de Reino Unido

11/30/2011

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SAMI Consulting www.samiconsulting.co.uk

Presentation slidedeck for a two-day training course featuring futures methods with examples from UK Government Foresight programme and other futures projects across the government and private sectors.

Dates: 1-2 December 2011 Audience: Up to 20 delegates from universities and other

institutions in Argentina with an interest in futures methods Language: Course delivered in English with simultaneous translation

available Method: Powerpoint presentations and group exercises (usually

working in four groups of 5- 6 people each) with a flipchart but no tables

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Training for Argentinean Institutions Foresight Approaches and Methods


Training for Argentinean Institutions Foresight Approaches and Methods

Dr Wendy Schultz [email protected]

Martin Duckworth

[email protected]

December 1 2, 2011


DAY ONE

3 SAMI Consulting www.samiconsulting.co.uk

SHIFT HAPPENS HTTP://WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/WATCH?NR=1&V=TZJRJEWFVTY

HTTP://SHIFTHAPPENS.WIKISPACES.COM/VERSIONS

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Aims for today

Introduction to strategic futures

Introduction to various methods

Experience in using selected foresight tools


Ground Rules The more that you contribute the more you will

benefit

All questions are valid and will contribute to the shared learning

We can all learn from the experience of others

Speak out if there are things you do not understand (others will probably have similar questions)

Engage fully with the exercises

Enjoy the day!

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Contractors to UK Foresight Dr Wendy Schultz Taught Futures Studies post-graduate courses at the University of Houston

and Nanyang Technical University, Singapore Designed and conducted futures projects for national and local

government agencies in the US and UK Designed and implemented scanning database pilot project for UK HSC Member of the Lead Expert Group for the UK Foresight Programmes Land

Use Futures Project, and conducting a formal review of UK Government Foresight programme futures frameworks and methods

Independent consultant and Principal of SAMI Consulting Martin Duckworth Delivers training courses for the UK Government Foresight programme Manages the contract to provides analysis and facilitation support to UK

Foresight Has participated in a number of futures projects to UK Government

Departments and Agencies Independent consultant and Principal of SAMI Consulting


Agenda, December 1

09:30 Welcome 09:45 Introduction to futures thinking 10:30 Introduction to Horizon Scanning 11:30 Coffee 11:45 Exercise 1: Horizon scanning 12:15 Introduction to drivers of change 13:00 Lunch 14:00 Exercise 2: Prioritise and cluster drivers 14:30 Impacts of change / Systems Thinking 15.30 Tea 15:45 Exercise 3: Futures Wheels 16:15 Reflections and follow up 16:30 Close

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Futures and Foresight Introduction and Overview


Why think about the future?

The 40:30:20 rule

The pace of change

The illusion of certainty

To give different perspectives of the present

To reduce risk

Strategic planning

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40:30:20 Rule 40% of time spent thinking about issues outside

the company

30% of this spent thinking about future challenges and strategic issues

20% of this is spent in dialogue with other senior managers

Therefore only 2.4% of senior managers time is spent collectively discussing strategic issues for the future of the business

Source: US Fortune 500 companies study


The pace of change

The time to achieve 50 million users:

Broadcast radio 38 years

Broadcast TV 13 years

Personal computers 16 years

Internet 4 years

Source: US Department of Commerce

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The illusion of certainty

"There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home."

Ken Olson, founder of computer giant DEC, 1977


Need for strategic futures thinking

We are entering a world of unprecedented uncertainty

Policies are often driven by an official view of the future

It enables a wider range of potential opportunities to be assessed

It enables risks to be identified and managed

Those engaged in it become better managers

In some cases we can influence the future.

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Futures and Forecasts

Hope!

Uncertainty

Predetermined

Distance into the future


Foresight question & context

Profession,

field, market

Organisation /

community

Problem /

question

Politics

Demo-

graphics

Economy

Environ-

ment

Science

Art, play

Technology

Lifestyles

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Five Key Components of Foresight Futures Framework to Create Change


Awareness

Identify change and its impacts: trends in chosen variables, changes in cycles, and emerging issues of change. Change identification: data mining, horizon scanning, survey research, focus groups, leading indicator analysis, cohort analysis.

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Impact mapping: Causal layered analysis, focus groups, cross-impact analysis, futures wheels, systems models & causal loop analysis.


Exploration

Identify, analyse, and build alternative images of the future, or scenarios.

Content analysis,

econometric models,

systems dynamic models,

scenario building:

matrix, FAR, dialogue, diversity, parameter.


Visioning

Identify, analyse, and articulate images of preferred futures, or visions.

Future Search,

Future Workshops,

Community Visioning,

Fluent Visioning, Learning Organisation.

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Action

Identify stakeholders and resources; clarify goals; design strategies; organise action; create change.

Backcasting, Joint Problem-Solving, Strengths-Weakness-Opportunities-Threats

analysis, Wind-tunnelling, Stakeholder Analysis, PERT and GANTT charting.

21 SAMI Consulting www.samiconsulting.co.uk 22


Case study: Natural England


Focal Question for today

What could influence Argentinas natural and built environment by 2060?

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Futures and Foresight Horizon Scanning


Horizon Scanning

The key to futures methods Definitions Uses Academic Origins of Horizon Scanning Stages to a typical horizon scanning project Horizon scanning terms Various frameworks to think about scanning Sources of horizon scanning data Organising and classifying horizon scan data Collecting interview data 7 Questions technique Drivers of the future

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The map is not the territory,

Navigational charts vs. radar: you need both.

because the territory is dynamic.


Horizon Scanning is...

. the systematic examination of potential threats, opportunities and likely developments including but not

restricted to those at the margins of current thinking

and planning. Horizon scanning may explore novel

and unexpected issues as well as persistent problems

or trends.

(Chief Scientists Advisers Committee, 09/04)

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Looking ahead beyond usual timescales

Looking across beyond usual sources

Looking around Beyond usual cultures

Beyond a single expected future

To a range of possible

futures to consider

implications for todays decisions

.flexibility and adaptability in strategy RESILIENCE

Horizon Scanning is

.not predicting, but influencing the future


Horizon Scanning

Why scan? A variety of objectives

Establishing the status quo where are we now?

Trying not to miss the obvious

An external (fresh) perspective

Evidence of change

Evidence of new trends

Sources of discontinuity

Seeking early indicators of change

More detail

Less detail

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C

H

A

N

GE

trends, drivers,

emerging issues

+ - x %

extrapolate, map systems,

assess impacts

scenario 1 scenario 2

scenario 3

scenario n

STRATEGIES

VISION - goals, values -

build on positives, counter negatives

Scanning is the essential

feedstock for all subsequent foresight activities:


Use of horizon scanning

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Foresight Programme

Sigma and Delta Scans

Land Use Futures

Environment Agency

DSTL

Home Office

Prime Ministers Strategic Futures

SAMI Consulting

Environment Agency

Defra Baseline Scan

Defra CAP Project

Natural England

British Nuclear Fuels

British defence contractor

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Horizon Scanning: Origins Environmental (horizon) scanning:

Developed by Francis Aguilar, Harvard Business School, in Scanning the Business Environment (New York: MacMillan, 1967).

Widely accepted by business (Jain 1984); linked to competitive intelligence.

Issues management: Fusion of public relations and futures studies -- links to public

policy; Analysis of near-term issues and plans to address them.

Emerging issues analysis: S-curve life-cycle of change (Molitor 1977) Leading ideas, events, authorities/advocates, literature,

organisations, political jurisdictions (bellwether); and economic activity of society (shifts in production mode).


A typical horizon scanning project

Understand client perspectives

Compilation of existing scanning outputs

Supplementary scanning

Review (workshop)

Classification and Analysis

Synthesis

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Scanning systems require

A way of identifying and gathering information (abstracts)

Breadth of evidence areas and disciplines

A mechanism for analysing information

A process for turning information into opportunity and policy/project

development and identifying risk

The right people (inside and outside the organisation) to be involved

- futures expertise, specific knowledge, challengers

Connections into the business planning process

Integration with strategic decision making

Continuous activity; systemic

Senior endorsement


Foresight question & context

Profession,

field, market

Organisation

Problem /

question

Politics

Demo-

graphics

Economy

Environ-

ment

Science

Art, play

Technology

Lifestyles

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Life-cycle of Change Life Cycle of Change

Schultz, adapted from Molitor

Dev

elo

pm

ent

of

an is

sue

Time

3rd horizon

scientists; artists; radicals; mystics

specialists journals and websites

laypersons magazines; websites; documentaries

newspapers; news magazines; broadcast media

institutions and government

local; few cases; emerging issues

global; multiple dispersed cases; trends and drivers

system limits; problems develop; unintended impacts


Three Horizons Framework Three Horizons Framework for Layering Change Life-cycles

B Sharp, T Hodgson, A Curry

Pro

min

ence (

vis

ibili

ty)

Horizon 1: The current and near future

Horizon 2: Looking further into the future

Horizon 3: The distant future 38

SAMI Consulting www.samiconsulting.co.uk 39

Horizon Scanning + the Three Horizons

Scanning provides a starting point to monitor possible transformative / disruptive changes.

Three Horizons let us organise and consider the interplay of trends and emerging changes.

Uses: Challenge obsolescing assumptions;

Spot emerging constraints/amplifiers;

Get beyond incrementalism.


Identifying Questions for the Three Horizons Framework

Does the change reinforce current working assumptions and patterns of production and marketing (horizon 1)?

Does the change present completely new paradigms and means to understand and undertake various human activities (horizon 3)?

Does the change identify a transition or accommodation for evolving tensions as current assumptions obsolesce, and transformative changes erupt into possibility (horizon 2)?

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Horizon Scanning: How

1. Identify potential scan sources;

2. Design framework/taxonomy to organise scan data (eg, Social, Technological, Environmental, Economic, Political change, or STEEP);

3. Establish standards to evaluate scan data;

4. Initiate the database with 3-5 state-of-the-art overviews of key issues of change; and

5. Validate entries by structured accrual of confirming data.


Horizon Scanning: Who

1. Core team (2-3 staff): design, initiate, maintain scanning activities and the database;

2. In-house network: interested staff contributing part-time scanning;

3. External contributors: stakeholders and topical experts; and

4. Links to scanning / foresight efforts internationally by nations and NGOs.

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Core scanning team

Team scan results

EU Scans

OECD Scans

UN Scans

Commonwealth

etc.

Scanning networked internally and to UK stakeholders:

Scanning networked

externally to other commonwealth,

regional, national, and NGO scan

databases.

Stakeholders

Division

Society experts

Technology experts

Economy experts

Politics experts

Environment experts

Stakeholders

Stakeholders

Stakeholders

Stakeholders

Stakeholders

Division

Division Division

Division Division

Division

Division

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EXAMPLE UK GOVERNMENT HOME OFFICE


Identifying Scan Sources

Look for opinion leaders Science, technology, innovation:

Discoveries and innovations Sources where scientists and researchers report

news.

Social and cultural change: Values and ideas Sources where artists, youth, marginalised

communities report news Often fringe publications or media.

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Validating Scan Sources

Distinguish among expert, popular, or fringe sources:

Lancet for medicine: expert;

The Economist for world affairs: popular;

Counterculture for value shifts: fringe.

Establish sources credibility as opinion leaders for their communities:

Citation by community members;

Market niche / branding;

Distribution data;

Media. 45 SAMI Consulting www.samiconsulting.co.uk

How to Scan Outside the Box 1. Diversify: Expertise limits -- go outside your

industry or field.

2. Go Global: escape the familiar -- tap another worldview with sources from other countries.

3. History is the Future: look at the past to find the future -- cycles, ideas that finally matured.

4. The Year 2020: search on your issue plus 2020 and see what Google finds.

5. Follow the Futurists: get newsletters from various futures groups to hear their buzz.

Courtesy Future Think LLC, from a presentation by Lisa Bodell.

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6. Join the Dialogue: Look for communities / blogs on your issue(s) and join the discussion / catch the commentary.

7. Go Ahead, Contact Them: email or call a leading thinker or advocate youve identified.

8. Be a Customer: Use a product or service from your clients industry -- get the end-user experience.

9. Advisory Boards: ask an eclectic group for review / input in your scan.

10. Search the Patent Office: whats in the pipeline for development?

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15 Tips from Future Think



11. Take a Different Route: break your own path habits walking to work.

12. Keep an Idea Journal: discipline yourself to capture your own ideas.

13. Get the Newsletter: sign up for the newsletters of organisations related to your scanning issues.

14. Look at Unrelated Industries: look at everything tangentially linked to your issue, and scan industries in those areas too.

15. Activate your Toolbar: put your favourite sources and blogs in your browsers toolbar and take a quick scan break.

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15 Tips from Future Think


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Gold Standard for Scanning

Evaluating a scan hit (change datum): Subjectively or objectively new? Confirming/reinforcing, or negating/balancing? Time horizon for emergence? Credibility of source?

Ideally, a scan hit identifies an emerging issue that is: objectively new even to experts, confirms or is confirmed by additional scan hits, and that has been identified in time for social dialogue,

impact assessment, and policy formation.


Approaches to Organising Scan Data

Expert defined: Simple, point of origin: STEEP

Simple, point of impact: VERGE EFF

Emergent: natural agendas

Socially defined: Emergent: folksonomies, or crowd-

sourced classification

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STEEP Society:

Demographics

Lifestyles

Values

Culture

Technology:

Science

Innovations

Basic Research

Health

Economy:

Production

Labour

Trade

Environment:

Biosphere

Geosphere

Atmosphere

Hydrosphere

Politics:

Governance

Laws & Regulations

Policies

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Other categories are used: STEEP, PESTE, PESTLEC, EPISTLE, SPEED, PEST


The processes and technology through which we create goods & services

The goods & services we create, and the ways in which we aquire and use them

Social structures & relationships which link

people and organizations

The concepts, ideas and paradigms we

use to define the world around us

The technologies used to connect

people, places and things

Verge: an EthnoFutures Scanning Framework

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EFF was created by Kaipo Lum and Michele Bowman of Vision Foresight Strategy LLC. http://www.kikilo.biz/

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Natural Agenda

Analysing the material Sorted by topic, find megatrends

Topics should derive from the findings

External world, market environment, internal factors

Make it easy for people to dip into Use direct quotes and references

Keep it refreshed Review every six months

What are the impacts? A key part of the Natural Agenda database


Natural Agendas: eg, UK Health & Safety Executive

External World Economics

Government, politics

Infrastructure

Culture, society

Geography

Market Interface Markets

Competitors/partners

Market segments

Marketing

Internal World

Structure

Culture

Competences

Resources

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Simple Standard Template

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Title Short name for change

Description

Brief narrative description of the change

Impact Brief description of potential impacts

Origin of change? STEEP (social, technological, environmental, economic, political)

Impact? H, M, L

Likelihood? H,M,L

Newness? H,M,L

Source? Web site, paper ref, etc


Annotation fields

Describing the scan data: Name it: brief, vivid, accurate

Summarise it: a quick description -- if you quote the source, indicate that

Point of origin or emergence: eg, STEEP

Scan source: bibliographic citation

Citation date: when was the source published?

Original research source and date: if the datum was footnoted, cite the original

Credibility: expert, popular media, fringe?

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Annotation fields Analysing the scan data:

Potential impacts: what could it do, to whom? Express as trends, up or down

Relevant impacts: whats important to your issue or client?

What kind of change is this: trend? Event? Cycle? Idea? Triggers and dependencies: what might cause it? What

does it need to grow or accelerate? Indicators: what will signal this trend is either maturing,

or fading? Impact areas: who will feel this trend first? Students?

Elderly? Health institutions? The environment? The communications industry?

Links to other trends: to what other scan data does this trend connect? What pattern or cluster is emerging?


Annotation fields In-depth impact analysis:

Timing: when is its earliest likely impact? Rate of change: how fast is it maturing? Scope / reach: localised, or global? Point of impact: where is it felt first -- at the individual level,

or at a more aggregated institutional or state level? Certainty: how certain are we that this change will mature? Power: how much transformative power does this have --

does it merely affect externalities, or does it shift worldview? Controversy: how much controversy will it generate? Vulnerability: how prepared are our systems to cope?

Novelty analysis: Objective novelty: is this new even in its own field? Or just

new to the public? Subjective novelty: totally surprising to the scan team, or a

confirming hit? 58


Validating Scan Data:

Problem: useful scan hits -- close enough to the point of origin to allow policy leverage -- are weak signals; often only one case.

Validation:

Confirmation: accrue multiple citations;

Convergence: monitor emerging scientific consensus; and

Parallax: acquire view from multiple perspectives;

A participatory team approach assists validation.


Confirm gold standard:

Double-check for objective novelty, impact, timeliness, likelihood, and credibility of the source.

Assure objective standard by layering:

Monitor expert opinion;

Elicit reviews from varied stakeholders;

Evaluate multiple cultural perspectives.

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Visual mapping to gap check example from Defra Baseline Scan

Create a radar diagram depicting your taxonomy over time; plot sources or output to get an immediate visual feel for gaps in sources or data.


The 7 Questions

The 7 Questions is a useful interview method for acquiring scanning data


SAMI 7 Questions Developed by Shell and SAMI Consulting Used in the scoping stage Aim is to capture the stakeholder view of the challenges

facing an organisation and its policy objectives An interview technique for stakeholders - but it is also

great for workshops Gets input from senior stakeholders and helps to get

their buy in Allows different perspectives, key themes and concerns

to emerge Takes you from the vision to the challenge of

implementation 63 SAMI Consulting www.samiconsulting.co.uk

What are the 7 questions?

1. Clairvoyant critical issue for the future?

2. Optimistic Outcome how develop and signs of success?

3. Pessimistic outcome how deteriorate, threats?

4. Internal situation changes to achieve optimistic outcome?

5. Looking back 10/20 years what has shaped today?

6. Looking forward near term decisions needed?

7. The Epitaph what would you do free from all constraints?

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Preparations before doing 7 Questions

Confirm scope and time scale

Eg, refer to the focal question

Agree who needs to be interviewed

Review standard questions and confirm they are the right ones to use

Decide how to synthesise the results


Focal Question for today

What could influence the Argentinas Natural and built environment by 2060?

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Exercise 1: Horizon Scanning (1/2)

Divide into four groups of equal size (helpful if at least one group member speaks English)

Brainstorm what you think will be transformative

emerging changes over the next twenty years Write each change on a single post-it Some of you will also have brought interesting

articles or papers with you please share these with the group while brainstorming

Cluster similar changes


Exercise 1: Horizon Scanning (2/2)

What trends could influence Argentinas natural and built environment by 2060?

Using the Three Horizon / Impact template, sort

your change post-its (or clusters): By timescale first, second, or third horizon, and By level of impact (low to high) on the focal question.

Identify: The three highest impact long-term changes, and The single most surprising change.

Be prepared to share the single most surprising change.

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Template for Exercise 1:

What trends could influence Argentinas natural and built environment by 2060?

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THIRD HORIZON SECOND HORIZON FIRST HORIZON

HIGH IMPACT

LOW IMPACT

HIGH IMPACT

LOW IMPACT

HIGH IMPACT

LOW IMPACT


Driver Analysis

Strategic drivers are major forces or trends that will shape the future environment within which you operate, e.g. globalisation, demographic change, technology change

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Transactional environment

Organisational

environment

Driving Forces

Driving Forces

Societal

Technological

Economic

Environmental

Political

Drivers of change


Using the output of driver analysis

Help prioritise trend analysis activities

Identify threats and opportunities and agree how to mitigate/exploit

Policy development

Develop Scenarios

Provide context for doing 7 Questions, Visioning and Road-mapping

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Example of driver Globalizacin - Dominio de China y de India


Uncertainty of driver of change

High Uncertainty

Outcome 3

outcome 1

Outcome 2

Low Uncertainty

Outcome 3

Outcome 2

Outcome 1

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Impact of a driver of change

Impact on the outcome of the focal question

Depending on the nature of the study can be an organisation, country, policy, section of society etc.

The impacts can take many forms including:

Ability of organisation, country.. etc to succeed

Financial implication e.g. economic growth or profits

Rates of development/change

Futures risks

Changes to society

Climate change

For today it is the impact on:

What could influence Argentinas natural and built environment by 2060?

For the purpose of this exercise you decide and agree as a group


Prioritising the Drivers for Change Template for Exercise 2

High Impact

Low Impact

Very uncertain

with high

potential impact

High Uncertainty Low Uncertainty

Do not ignore these

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Clustering the prioritised Drivers for Change Template for Exercise 2

High impact

Low impact

High uncertainty Low Uncertainty

Do not ignore these


Exercise 2: Prioritise and cluster drivers Each group has a deck of change cards

To these, please add your selected items from Exercise 1 (highest impact and most surprising) and any other post-its you think are important

Discuss these and place on impact/uncertainty matrix

Now concentrate on the high-impact / high uncertainty drivers put the rest aside

Try to combine drivers into clusters aim for 5 to 7 clusters

Discuss the clusters and decide which you think are the most important maximum of 3

Report back

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UK Foresight Programme Impacts of Change / Systems Thinking


The processes and technology through which we create goods & services

The goods & services we create, and the ways in

which we acquire and use them

Social structures & relationships which link

people and organizations

The concepts, ideas and paradigms we use to define the world around us

The technologies used to connect people, places and things

Verge/EFF: A focus on how change affects human systems


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Verge EFF: History Began with frustration with limitations of STEEP

taxonomy

Overly broad - human systems blur STEEP boundaries

STEEP views change from the point of origin

What categories help define our lives as human beings?

Culture points: highlighting key experiences as human beings

Explore change at the point of impact on people and human systems

Still arguing whether Destroy is a key aspect of human experience

Intellectual roots in anthropology, ethnography, and ethnographic futures research (Robert Textor), as well as social impact assessment.

LOTS of people consultants in particular talk about the drivers of change. And theyre usually referring to technology when they do so. I prefer to think about how change happens across the various segments of human experience. Michele Bowman Richard Lum Vision Foresight Strategy LLC

81 SAMI Consulting www.samiconsulting.co.uk 82

Futures presentations / workshops by Global Foresight Associates:

About identifying eternal verities around which change swirls Fidelity Bank Price Waterhouse Coopers Massachusetts Department of Education Women in Technology Nissan Motor Company Ford Motor Company Babson College, Boston, Massachusetts

Future presentations / workshops by Infinite Futures: Presidents Panel, American Library Association Singapore Civil Service College

Future presentations / workshops by The Futures Company: Royal Borough of Kensington and Chelsea Eurostar

Michele Bowman Global Foresight Associates Wendy L. Schultz Infinite Futures Andrew Curry The Futures Company

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Verge EFF: Case Studies


Pitney Bowes: Futuring Group

Growth Strategy Group

MTV User Profiles: Social Technologies presented at Trends conference (ask Terry

Grim), The Future of Happiness

Created user profiles for MTVs new customers:

Todays users increasingly pragmatic in pursuit of happiness

User profiles: enabled comparative analysis of details of users lives

Health and Safety Executive Scenarios Provided organizational frame and focus for rich welter of

detail generated by workshop discussions

Enabled detailed comparison across the scenarios on issues critical to stakeholders and policy-makers.

Andy Hines Terry Grim Social Technologies Wendy L. Schultz Infinite Futures

The VERGE framework has

proven extremely valuable at Pitney Bowes in translating thinking about the future into

innovation and strategic decision-making. We've used VERGE in

several invention and strategy contexts to organize and make sense of the changes in the

customer communications environment. ...In addition, the

immediacy of VERGE content provokes leaders to shift strategies ahead of potential disruptive

change, and to see these disruptions as opportunities, not

threats. Christian Crews

Pitney Bowes

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Verge EFF: Case Studies


The concepts, ideas and paradigms we use to

define ourselves and the world around us,

including:

Social Values & Attitudes

Scientific Models

Culture

Economic Systems

Religion

Politics & Public Policy

What new concepts, ideas, and paradigms will emerge to help us make sense of the world?

Example: radical biotechnology:

No extinction exists between natural and artificial; highly elastic notions of what human looks like

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Social structures and relationships

which link people and organizations,

including:

Demographics

Family & Lifestyle Groups

Work & Economy

Habitat & Ecosystems

Business Models & Practices

Government

International Relations

Education

How will we live together on planet Earth?


New synthetic ethnicities; some ecosystems treated as living works of

art; international regulatory compacts

to monitor impacts of bio-designs.

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The technologies used to connect people,

places and things, including:

Information Technology

Music

Media

Visual Arts

Language

Space

What arts and technologies will we use to connect people, places, and things?


DNA-based computing possible; gifts of

bio-designed life the new Valentine

bouquets; genetically engineered organic

sculptures

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The processes and technology through which

we produce goods and services, including:

Engineering

Wealth

Manufacturing

Innovation Processes

Life Sciences

Materials Sciences

Nanotechnology

As human beings what will we be inspired to create?


Many new materials manufactured on farms: goats produce proteins, plants produce plastics,

etc.; artificial insects monitor agricultural lands, water quality, etc

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The goods and services we create and the ways

in which we acquire and use them - and destroy

them, including:

Consumer Goods

Energy

Food & Agriculture

House & Home

Entertainment & Leisure

Healthcare

Natural Resources

Touch Points How will we use the earths resources?


More white goods mimic organisms in design: self-repair, communicate to

others of their kind, optimise their intake

/ output of energy and waste.

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Futures Wheels

The Futures wheel is an instrument for graphical visualisation of direct and indirect future consequences of a particular change or development.

It is a structured brainstorming

tool to predict the future of a specific topic or systematically capture the effect of various future developments on each other


Futures Wheels / Verge

Futures Wheels (Impact Wheels) augmented with Verge Adapted from J Glenn; R Lum

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ISSUE

impact impact

impact impact

impact

Futures (Impact) Wheels: Exploring cascades of change

What are the impacts of change --

and what additional changes

do those impacts create?


Futures Wheels: Origins Jerome C. Glenn

Invented futures wheels in 1971 as a method for policy analysis and forecasting

Also called Implementation Wheels, Impact Wheels, Mind Mapping, and Webbing.

Reference: Jerome C. Glenn, The Futures Wheel, in The Millennium Project Futures Research Methodology 3.0 (CD)

Joel Barker

Cascade thinking: go out at least three orders of implications to find big surprises

http://strategicexploration.com/implications-wheel/

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Futures Wheel


Augmented Futures Wheel

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Enter your assigned change in the inner circle of your worksheet.

Everyone take five minutes by themselves to imagine the possible impacts of this change.

Share your individual lists within your group. Which of these are immediate, or primary, impacts? Immediate primary impacts are the direct caused by the change. Write those down next to the appropriate spoke.

Some of the impacts on your lists may actually be the result of a primary impact, or occur after a primary impact - draw a line from the relevant primary impact, and write the suggested secondary impact in a circle at the end of that line.

Now consider each primary impact, one by one. Brainstorm two or three impacts it will have, and map those, connecting each to its primary impact.

Futures Wheels: Instructions


Priority issues generate impacts that create more change.

ISSUE

impact impact

impact impact

impact

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eg, what are the strongest IMMEDIATE impacts of our example priority issue on policing and police?

impact

Increase in power of citizen activism

impact impact

How could this affect how police define themselves, or who is identified as a peace officer?

How might this transform relationships between police officers and citizens? between officers and communities?

between officers and public officials?

...feel free to draw on information from the petals to suggest specific and vivid impacts...

What impacts might this have on how police communicate amongst themselves? communicate to the

public? what new media?

what new tabus?

impact

impact impact

impact

How might this change how police officers are trained? how policing services are designed?

How might this transform what

the public expects from

police? what

community demands on

police are?

impact SAMI Consulting www.samiconsulting.co.uk

First, what are the strongest IMMEDIATE impacts of your priority issue? Identify 3-5.

ISSUE

impact impact

impact impact

impact

impact

impact impact impact impact

impact

impact

impact

Second, consider each impact

youve identified, one at a time.

What strong impacts does each

in turn create? Identify 3-5.


Exercise 3: Futures Wheels

Each group should pick a provocative change that emerged from the analysis this morning: Place the change in the center of the flipchart. Each member suggest one immediate, significant impact

the change would generate write those around the change.

Now consider the impacts one by one, and for each identify at least two secondary impacts each primary impact would create.

Continue on to third-order impacts if you think of any. What are the two most surprising or transformative

outer-edge impacts that emerge?


Finally, what happens when impacts from your two priority issues collide? Do some impacts cancel others out? Do some impacts reinforce others?

Combining Futures (Impact) Wheels: Exploring Interconnections of Change

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Interconnecting Impacts:

Influence Mapping

Describe the relationship between two variables; what do you hear? The more , the more The less , the less Whether a virtuous or vicious cycle, this loop reinforces change.

Or, do you hear this? The more , the LESS

This loop wavers around a goal & maintains the status quo;

it BALANCES change.


DAY TWO

102


Agenda, December 2

09:30 Scenario Methods 10:30 Exploring Scenarios 11:00 Coffee 11:15 Exercise 4: Exploring scenarios 12:00 Wind-tunnelling 13:00 Lunch 14:00 Exercise 5: Wind Tunnel 14:45 Stakeholder Impacts 15.15 Tea 15:30 Exercise 6: Stakeholder Impact Analysis 16:15 Reflections and follow up 16:30 Close


CHANGE HAPPENZ

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UK Foresight Programme Scenario Building: Survey of Methods


What are scenarios

Stories that describe how the world might look in the future

Possible paths to the future

Based on an analysis of drivers of change

Should be engaging, compelling and credible

Must have internal logic and consistency

Allow critical uncertainties and predetermined elements to be separated

Not predictions or forecasts

106


Scenarios: imagining difference through structured processes.

Images of alternative possible futures;

Based on trends and emerging issues;

Exploratory, NOT predictive;

Present both opportunities and threats;

Real, NOT ideal;

Used to create contingency plans.


Effective scenarios. provoke ideas!

Vividly, boldly portray difference;

Clearly identify the time horizon;

Explain how the change unfolded tell the story of trends and impacts growing over time;

Are written in the present tense, as if the future were happening now;

Contain a few transformed elements of the past 2011 to contrast the past with the scenarios present day.

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Why use scenarios?

The future is uncertain

Opportunity to talk about the future together

Offer an inclusive and consultative process

Reflect the views and challenges facing all stakeholders

A neutral space (the future) for discussion

An important tool for organisational learning

Stories are more engaging (than numbers or policy papers) to describe strategic issue; and

Allows detailed analysis blending subjective and objective viewpoints.


Some benefits of scenarios

Enhance management skills

Framework for strategic thinking and a common language

Provide trigger points for early warning of events

Help organisations to manage risk

Better decisions and flexible response to future possibilities

Help inform research priorities

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no method suits all projects.

Narratives Axes

Co

nn

ecto

rs

Tables

Twenty+ different scenario methods:


2X2 axes of uncertainty

Deductive

Scenario

A

Scenario C

Scenario D

Scenario B

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The Scenario Cross Method

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Critical issue: what decision keeps you awake at night?

Local operating environment: what key factors will determine the success or failure of the critical issue?

MACRO environment: what are some of the driving forces creating change in the wider world?

Rank those driving forces by importance and uncertainty: MOST important AND MOST uncertain.

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Scenario Cross example: Scenario Matrix for Global Agro-Seeds, Inc.

Example -- driving forces of change:

Developing World progress; loss of marine biodiversity; trade protectionism;

decreasing water supplies; public confidence in science;

religious/philosophical conflicts; nano-bio-tech convergence.

Choose two most important to you, whose outcomes are most uncertain;

draw axes showing extreme opposite outcomes.

Developing World flourishes

Developing World crashes

Science saves

Science stumbles

broker of national, natural gene stocks

steward of national, natural gene stocks

partner in engineering new exotics from local plant stocks

supplier of high-yield engineered seeds for famine relief

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Select the scenario logics and create the scenario matrix.

Flesh out the scenarios by referring to the key factors, and suggest plausible events that might create that end state.

Implications: how does the decision look in each scenario? -- SWOT analysis.

What might usefully serve as leading indicators or signposts that you are heading toward one or another of these scenarios?

115



Create

abstracts Brainstorm Drivers capture on post its

Prioritise drivers

Agree focal issue

(exam question) -

cluster drivers

Choose 2 clusters to

create scenario axes

Develop narratives Private sector pursues

maximum economic growth to

improve environment and

human well-being

Lip service paid to major

policy decisions on sustainable

development

Private sector pursues



human well-being



development




human well-being



development




human well-being



development

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Designed for strategic insight, focussing on a decision-making goal or challenge

Shorter term futures: time horizon of 10 20 years Critical uncertainties frame a futures landscape Almost complete dependency on getting the axes

right Axes can repeat in the same domain: limits divergence Consistency of tone and purpose across the scenarios:

comparable futures worlds vs homogeneity of language and description


Co

nn

ecto

rs

Narratives

Causal Layered Analysis Scenario Archetypes Corporate Story-telling

Axes

Deductive Scenarios, eg GBN, Shell Trilemma, Oxford Scenarios

Tables

FAR Futures Table Morphological Analysis Scenario Parameter Matrix

Manoa Scenarios Systems Dynamics

Co

nn

ecto

rs Other

Scenario Methods

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Causal Layered Analysis


Causal Layered Analysis Designed to integrate different futures perspectives

(empirical, critical, interpretative): open to different ways of knowing (Inayatullah)

Every epistemological layer explored, none privileged Privileged/silenced vs winners/losers Not necessary to get to metaphor layer to build scenarios (but it

helps) Succeeded in creating transformative spaces Litany level created humour Metaphor made new connections

traders and guardians seven generations the mandarin

Resilient to process issues: thoughtful, open, and searching conversation

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Scenario Archetypes


Scenario Archetypes

Designed to capture common families of images of the future in order to enable incasting

Pre-fab worldviews and frameworks: just add data approach

Requires nuanced understanding of the archetypes Potential for not our story backlash Useful discussions generated when sorting data across the

archetypes: identifies ambiguities where drivers fall across or between boundaries

Tight focus on the research issue (civil society) Logical pattern identification: matching drivers and weak

signals with apposite worldviews ensures internal consistency of scenario

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Manoa Scenario Building


Designed to maximise evidence-driven difference from the present, in order to challenge assumptions

Focus on turbulence and the dynamics of acceleration and constraint

Surfaces emerging tensions and backlash responses Needs at least three orthogonal changes to drive each

scenario Does not directly address topic (incast later) Impact cascades create clear webs of events - aids drafting

a network future history Cross-impact step addresses boundary spaces where

innovations and threats emerge Energising: creates a playful mood supporting creativity

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Choose three emerging issues from different STEEP categories;

Create futures wheels exploring the impacts of each emerging issue, by a set date (2030);

Create a qualitative cross-impact matrix exploring the interactions of all three emerging issues;

imagine what a day would be like in the future where ALL those changes were real.

125



Manoa Approach Example: Three trends for 2025

Three futures wheels: 24/7/365 economy; vigorous aging; and voice and biometric

input/output to computers.

Brainstorm primary, secondary, tertiary impacts for each issue, addressing: government, economic structures, family

life, patterns of work, education and training, arts and leisure, news and media, religion, etc.

24/7/365 more workers needed

Small momnpop shops fail

126



Cross-Impacts: Emerging Issues

24/7/365 economy

Vigorous aging

Voice and biometric input to computers

24/7/365 economy

Vigorous aging

Results of futures wheel



What impacts will vigorous aging have on the 24/7/365 economy?

What impacts will voice and biometric input to computers have on the 24/7/365 economy?

What impacts will the 24/7/365 economy have on vigorous aging?

What impacts will voice and biometric input to computers have on vigorous aging?

What impacts will the 24/7/365 economy have on voice and biometric input to computers?

What impacts will vigorous aging have on voice and biometric input to computers?

Voice and biometric input to computers

127

Connecting Impacts Across Futures Wheels

noisy work space

market for great voices

sharp drop in CTS

voice in/out & biometrics

need for hearing filters / augmentation

design of calm infrastructure

more workers needed

24/7/365

momnpop shops fail

more stress

vigorous aging

people work into their 80s

oldsters extreme sportsters

focus on wellness

drop in health care costs


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SRI Scenario Parameters

Choose variables: Specific critical; uncertain.

Label scenario plots: usually, present trends extended, positive outcomes,

negative outcomes, transformations.

Extrapolate a range of plausible outcomes for each variable.

Sort outcomes into the plot column using the rule of logical consistency.

129

Var\Out PTE Up-side

Down-side

Wild Card

Int. rate medium low high negative

Market youth mass specialty green

Tariffs. low none high freeware

Supplies national local global recycled


FAR Futures

Table Choose variables:

specific critical; uncertain.

Estimate/forecast range of outcomes: present trends extended vs. transformation; or high, medium, low; etc.

Create internally consistent scenarios: identify and resolve impossible pairs; organize by logical relationship.

130

Var\Out A B C D

Int. rate high medium low

Market luxury green mass youth

Tariffs. none low medium high

Supplies local national regional global


Morphological Analysis

Often used for complicated multi-variable systems: Economic and policy analyses, eg, Singapores

Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning System (using purpose-built software)

Environmental and social analyses (UK National Ecosystem Assessment Scenarios, using Parmenides Foundations EIDOS)

Allows greater complexity of analysis, but at greater cost

Complex output often more difficult to communicate

131

Another futures table approach Makes use of computer-assisted

evaluation of variable output: one-stop shopping foresight from scanning to strategy


Source: Parmenides Eidos Software Suite

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Source: Parmenides Eidos Software Suite 133 SAMI Consulting www.samiconsulting.co.uk

Images of the future: a continuum of infinite possibilities

all possible images of the future

dystopias nightmares

utopias visions scenarios:

downside

scenarios: PTE

scenarios: upside

wild cards!

wild cards!

134


Existing images of alternative futures: sources

Individuals what do people think? e.g., Surveys, Ethnographic Futures Research, etc.

Culture... what do religions imply? political ideologies? what do artists imagine? writers? advertisers? other artifacts? Content analysis; hermeneutic analysis, etc.

Forecasts what trends have researchers extrapolated? what scenarios have futurists built? Secondary analysis of existing research and data.


Exploring Scenarios

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UK Futures: Society and Economy in 2030


Background and scope

Department for Innovation, Universities & Skills formed in 2007

New Minister wanted to use scenarios to test validity of legacy policies and generate new ideas

Most policies predicated on a single view of the world, leaving the department vulnerable

First 5 months of project spent defining the scope and galvanising support

138


Scenarios development summary

8 month process involving (at varying levels) 10 Govt departments, 13 other organisations and a number of individual experts and stakeholders

Workshops (3) Interviews (12) Online brainstorm (247 respondents) Stakeholder group meetings (Director General/Director or

Chief Executive level) Expert group meetings (Government analysts, social

scientists, futurists) Research programme Prosperity work with Treasury


Scenarios scoping

Early scoping work indicated four big issues that could significantly impact on UK government industrial policies:

1. Globalisation open or closed world

2. Development of emerging economies (BRICs)

3. Social values

4. Resource constraints (natural and human)

Of these, using globalisation and social values as axes gave the most useful scenarios but all four issues are major features of the scenarios

140

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Collectivist Individualistic

Social Values

Scenarios the grid

Perpetual Motion Shaken Open

Protective Collective Self-Service

Open, multilateral

Closed, unilateral/bilateral

Glo

bal P

olit

ical an

d E

con

om

ic C

on

text


Collectivist Individualistic

Social Values

Scenarios the grid

Movimiento continuo Colectivo abierto

Proteccionista Colectivo Auto-servicio

Open, multilateral

Closed, unilateral/bilateral

Glo

bal P

olit

ical an

d E

con

om

ic C

on

text

142


Scenarios Perpetual Motion (Movimiento continuo)

Short-term

Economic downturn

Rapid recovery

Medium-term

High growth

Opening markets

Rising inequalities

Long-term

Volatility and inequality accepted

Social fragmentation; individual solutions

Perpetual

Motion Shaken Open

Self-Service Protective

Collective

Open

Closed

Individual Collective


Free trade Open markets

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Rise of

China &

India


Inequality 146


Interconnected


Insecurity &

surveillance

Perpetual Motion

148

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Short-term

Major long-lasting world-wide recession

Medium-term

Bottom-up action to assist those hardest hit

Return to economic growth and opening markets though more regulated and ethical

Long-term

Major humanitarian crisis in Africa

Shift towards more global values and focus on equity

Scenarios Shaken Open (Colectivo abierto)



Collective

Open

Closed

Collective Individual


Regulated markets 150

SAMI Consulting www.samiconsulting.co.uk Collaboration 151 SAMI Consulting www.samiconsulting.co.uk

Collectives

152

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Internationalism 153 SAMI Consulting www.samiconsulting.co.uk

Conformity

154


Scenarios Self-Service (Auto-servicio)

Short-term Global economic downturn

Medium-term Trade wars and

protectionism UK forced to follow suit

painful economic restructuring

Lost of trust in official solutions

Long-term People turn inwards

looking after themselves and their families

Power shifts downwards



Collective

Open

Closed


155 SAMI Consulting www.samiconsulting.co.uk Barriers 156

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Family


Local

innovation

158


Division & inequality


Resource constraints innovative response

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Scenarios Protective Collective (Proteccionista Colectivo)

Short-term

Global economic downturn

Medium-term

Trade wars and protectionism

UK forced to follow suit painful economic restructuring

People pull together rise of Britishness

Long-term

Nation state dominant web of alliances and bilateral deals

UK: self-sufficiency ideal; nationalism



Collective

Open

Closed



Protectionism

162


Strong

national

identity


Strong

national

identity

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Intolerance


Rise of resource-rich countries

166


Resource constraints rationing response


Scenarios Summary of key features


Protective Collective Self-Service

Open

Closed


Global free markets

Mosaic of self-reliant individuals

Export-driven emerging economies grow

rapidly, competing with West

Deep pockets of poverty

Open markets in resources, though market

failures occur

Strongly-regulated global economy

Strong collective identities

Export-driven emerging economies grow

rapidly, collaborating with West

Moderate inequality high redistribution

State intervention in resource provision

Market barriers and strong nations

Strong collective identity within the UK

Resource-rich emerging economies grow in

power

Low inequality within the UK

Access to resources is constrained, with high

state intervention and rationing

Market barriers and protectionism

Competitive individuals, strong families

Resource-rich emerging economies grow in

wealth

Moderate inequality within UK

Access to resources is constrained, with local

adaptation and pricing mechanisms

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Situaciones - Resumen de caractersticas

Abierto

Cerrado

Colectivo Individual

Movimiento continuo Libre mercado a escala mundial Mosaico de individuos independientes Economas emergentes impulsadas por las exportaciones crecen rpidamente, compitiendo con el Occidente Grandes focos de pobreza Mercados abiertos en recursos aunque se presentan fallos de Mercado

Colectivo abierto Economa mundial fuertemente reglamentada Fuerte identidad colectiva Economas emergente impulsadas por las exportaciones crecen rpidamente, colaborando con Occidente Desigualdad moderada- una alta tasa de redistribucin Intervencin del Estado en obtencin de recursos

Proteccionista Colectivo Barreras de mercado y naciones fuertes Fuerte identidad colectiva dentro de Argentina Economas emergentes ricas en recursos aumentan su poder Desigualdad baja dentro de Argentina Acceso a recursos es limitado, con una alta intervencin estatal y racionamiento

Self-Service (Auto-servicio) Barreras de mercado y proteccionismo Individuos competitivos, gran unin familiar/ familias fuertes Economas emergentes ricas en recursos crecen en prosperidad/ riqueza Desigualdad moderada dentro de Argentina Acceso a recursos es limitado, con adaptaciones locales y mecanismo de fijacin de precios 169 SAMI Consulting www.samiconsulting.co.uk

Exercise 4: exploring scenarios

Your group has been assigned a scenario

What is Argentina like in this scenario?

How is it managing and using its natural environment?

How is it designing and managing its built environment?

Who are key players?

What are some tough decisions facing government?

What are some headlines re: government policy or business initiatives for the environment in 2030?

Create a front page for an Argentinean newspaper.

170


Futures and Foresight Wind-Tunnelling & Stakeholder Analysis


Wind Tunnelling

Introduction to the technique and exercise brief

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Windtunnelling

Test robustness of objectives/policies against different scenarios

Explore ways to optimise future success

Help to identify future risks

Challenge official view of the future

Create an environment for open debate on options


Windtunnelling typical steps

The process

Develop scenarios, or work with suitable existing ones

Identify the objective/policy/desired outcome to be tested

Examine how the external conditions described in each scenario affect delivery of the desired outcome

Identify the implications for strategy implementation

174


Orange SCENARIO

Blue SCENARIO

Green SCENARIO

Yellow SCENARIO

Wind Tunnelling Analytic Approach

Policy

Option

1

Policy

Option

2

Policy

Option

3

Implications Success Failure Contingent on

scenario

Action Plans Do Now Reject Monitor future

events &

Contingency

Planning


Example template/approach Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4

Goal/

objective 1 ? X

Goal/

objective 2 X

Goal/

objective 3 X X X ?

Goal/

objective 4 X X

? X

= robust

= needs modification

= redundant 176

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Case Study Tackling Obesity Anticipate & prepare

React & mitigate

Socia

l responsib

ility

first

Indiv

idual re

sponsib

ility

firs

t

Scenario 1

Vocal consumers drive for

business to lead change,

with a focus on long-term

strategies and preparation for change

Scenario 4

Individuals prioritise short-

term value maximisation

and leave the market to

balance any shifts in the resource system

Scenario 3

Society seeks consensus and

collective action to deliver

flexibility and react to the issue

of the day

Scenario 2

Belief in wider social

responsibility, and the

importance of future challenges

drives long-term preparedness and adaptive behavioural

change

Source: Tackling Obesity Main Report


Windtunnelling impacts Response Options (the built

environment and transport)

Scenario

1

Scenario

2

Scenario

3

Scenario

4

1. Introduce health as a significant

criterion in all planning procedures

(including new build and upgrading

of the current infrastructure)

MEDIUM

IMPACT

HIGH

IMPACT

LOW

IMPACT

NO

IMPACT

2. Improve the perceptions of

safety from the points of view of

traffic and crime

NO

IMPACT

LOW

IMPACT

LOW

IMPACT

NO

IMPACT

3. Increase the walkability and cyclability of the built environment (urban and rural)

MEDIUM

IMPACT

MEDIU

M

IMPACT

MEDIU

M

IMPACT

LOW

IMPACT

Source: extract from Tackling Obesity final report

178


Case Study Outcome The top five policy responses assessed as having the

greatest average impact on levels of obesity across the scenarios were: 1. Increasing walkability/cyclability of the built environment 2. Targeting health interventions for those at risk 3. Controlling the availability of/exposure to obesogenic

foods and drinks 4. Increasing the responsibility of organisations for the

health of their employees 5. Early life interventions at birth or in infancy

These have now been included in the department's new health strategy)


Exercise 5: Wind Tunnel Decide aims to be tested

Wind tunnel the aim timeline to use is 2030 Think about:

whether the outcome is still achievable and desirable

whether the aim needs to be modified in any way

how the desired outcome should be achieved in this scenario

how the current strategy for delivery needs to be modified.

Output: populated Wind tunnelling template

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Stakeholder Impact Analysis

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LVlDSzbrH5M


Stakeholder Impact Analysis

Analyse how different scenarios will impact on

stakeholders

Stakeholder is anyone or any group of people

likely to be affected by scenarios

Process will highlight strategic choices to be made

Helps to see policies from other peoples perspective

182


Exercise 6: Stakeholder Impact Analysis

Study the scenarios Use Stakeholder Impact Analysis matrix to determine how

scenarios will affect stakeholder groups in each scenario: 1. The owner of a ranch 2. Buenos Aires city planners 3. CEO of manufacturing company 4. Head of a global environmental organisation

Score from +5 (positive impact) to -5 (negative impact)

Key output: by end of session, syndicates have identified the impact on major stakeholder groups

Plenary session: summary of key issues; feedback on the process


Stakeholder impact analysis (example from previous event)

Table Group:

Stakeholder Group: Impact Analysis Score

Perpetual Motion

Global free markets

Mosaic of individuals

Deep pockets of poverty

Exporting BRICs grow and compete

Self-Service

Market barriers and protectionism

Competing individuals, strong families

Moderate inequalities in UK

Resource-rich countries grow in wealth

Shaken Open

Regulated global economy

Strong collective identities

Moderate global inequality

Exporting BRICs grow and collaborate

Protective Collective

Market barriers and strong nations

Strong collective Britishness identity

Low inequality in UK

Resource-rich countries grow in power

Higher inequality & Pension Provision

Social tension but better collaboration

Heath - diversity of provision

Ostracising different communities

Child (urban setting)

2 for rich

-5 for poor

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Stakeholder impact analysis

Group:

Stakeholder Class: Impact Analysis Score

185

Self-Service Auto-servicio

Protective Collective Proteccionista Colectivo

Shaken Open Colectivo abierto

Perpetual Motion Movimiento continuo


Summary

Future driven by trends and uncertainties

What can we control?

Strategy should take into account different possible outcomes

We can influence the future to a certain degree

186

Documents

Taller de Prospectiva Del Programa de Reino Unido