Taking the Easy Way Out: How the GED Testing Program ...jenni.uchicago.edu/GED_dropout/GED_incentives/web-app...2011/05/04 · GED Testing Program Induces Students to Drop Out" James

Web Appendix for “Taking the Easy Way Out: How the

GED Testing Program Induces Students to Drop Out”

James J. Heckman, John Eric Humphries, Paul A. LaFontaine,

and Pedro L. Rodrıguez

First draft, December 2007

Revised, May 12, 2011

Contents

A Data Sources 7

B Definitions 8

B.1 Weighted GED Test Taking Rate Across Groups: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

B.2 Overall Dropout Rate (10th-12th Grade) in state i in year t: . . . . . . . . . 9

B.3 Upper Level Dropout Rate (12th Grade) in state i in year t: . . . . . . . . . 9

B.4 Lower Level Dropout Rate (10th-11th Grade) in state i in year t: . . . . . . 9

B.5 Cohort Completion Rates (8th, 9th, or 10th) in district i in year t: . . . . . . 10

C Supplementary Materials for the 1997 Increase in Passing Standards 11

D Robustness Checks for the Effect of the 1997 Increase in Passing Standards 16

D.1 Alternate Control Group . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

D.2 Southern States Only . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

D.3 Excluding States that Changed Minimum Age Requirements . . . . . . . . . 20

D.4 Excluding Additional Years from the Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

D.5 Extending the GED Testing and Dropout Rate Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

E Fixed Effect Estimates of the Effect of Increasing Passing Standards 24

F Supplementary Material for the Analysis of the GED Option Program 29

G Additional Supplementary Materials 43

List of Figures

C-1 Average Pre- and Post-1997 10th-11th Grade Dropout Rate for Treatment

and Control Group . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

C-2 White Dropout Rates by Year, Treatment vs. Control States . . . . . . . . . 13

1

C-3 Black Dropout Rates by Year, Treatment vs. Control States . . . . . . . . . 14

C-4 Hispanic Dropout Rates by Year, Treatment vs. Control States . . . . . . . 15

D-1 GED Testing and Dropout Rates By Year, Treatment vs. Control States

(extended years) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23

F-1 Median Days of Enrollment in GED Option, by State: 2008–09 School Year . 30

F-2 Median Preparation Hours of GED Option Candidates, by State: 2008–09

School Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31

F-3 Ninth Grade Cohort Graduation Status of GED Option Candidates, by State:

2008–09 School Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32

F-4 The Effect of Regular Schools Option Program on High School Cohort Com-

pletion Rates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34

F-5 Descriptive Comparisons of Districts with and without GED Option Programs

(2000, prior to GED Option). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35

F-6 Descriptive Comparisons of Districts with and without GED Option Programs

(2000, prior to GED Option) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36

G-1 Graduation Rate Before and After Implementing the GED Program, Califor-

nia vs. All other States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44

List of Tables

D-1 Summary of Robustness Checks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

D-1 Summary of Robustness Checks (Continued) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

D-1 Summary of Robustness Checks (Continued) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

D-2 Alternative Year Specification for Change in Test Difficulty . . . . . . . . . . 21

E-1 Changes in GED Testing and Mandatory Schooling Age Requirements by

Treatment Status, 1994-2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25

2

E-2 Weighted OLS Fixed Effects Estimates of the Impact of the 1997 GED Reform

on Various Dropout Rate Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27

E-3 Summary Statistics of Variables Used in the Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28

F-1 States Issuing Credentials Indistinguishable from High School Diplomas (2008)

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33

F-2 The Effect of District-Wide Option Programs on Cohort Diploma Rates in

Oregon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37

F-3 The Effect of District-Wide Option Programs on Cohort Other-Completer

Rates in Oregon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38

F-4 The Effect of Option Programs only in Alternative Schools on Cohort Diploma

Rates in Oregon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39

F-5 The Effect of Option Programs only in Alternative Schools on Cohort Other-

Completer Rates in Oregon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40

F-6 The Effect of Option Programs in Traditional Schools on Cohort Diploma

Rates in Oregon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41

F-7 The Effect of Option Programs in Traditional Schools on Cohort Other-

Completer Rates in Oregon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42

G-1 Fixed Effects Estimates of the Effect of the Reform on GED Test Taking Rates

by Younger Cohorts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45

G-2 Fixed Effects Estimates of the Effect of the Reform on GED Test Taking Rates

by Younger Cohorts Controlling for Age Requirements . . . . . . . . . . . . 46

G-3 Fixed Effects Estimates of the Effect of the Reform on Dropout Rates (All

Races) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47

G-4 Fixed Effects Estimates of the Effect of the Reform on Dropout Rates (Whites) 48

G-5 Fixed Effects Estimates of the Effect of the Reform on Dropout Rates (Blacks) 49

G-6 Fixed Effects Estimates of the Effect of the Reform on Dropout Rates (Hispanics) 50

3

G-7 Fixed Effects Estimates of the Effect of the Reform on Dropout Rates Con-

trolling for Age Requirements (All Races) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51


trolling for Age Requirements (Whites) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52


trolling for Age Requirements (Blacks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53


trolling for Age Requirements (Hispanics) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54

G-11 Fixed Effects Estimates of the Effect of the Reform on Dropout Rates with

Minimum Score Changer States as Control Group (All Races) . . . . . . . . 55


Minimum Score Changer States as Control Group (Whites) . . . . . . . . . . 56


Minimum Score Changer States as Control Group (Blacks) . . . . . . . . . . 57


Minimum Score Changer States as Control Group (Hispanics) . . . . . . . . 58

G-15 Fixed Effects Estimates of the Effect of the Reform on Dropout Rates Re-

stricting Sample to Southern States (All Races) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59


stricting Sample to Southern States (Whites) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60


stricting Sample to Southern States (Blacks) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61


stricting Sample to Southern States (Hispanics) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62

G-19 Fixed Effects Estimates of the Effect of the Reform on Dropout Rates Ex-

cluding States that Changed Minimum Age Required to Drop Out (All Races) 63

4


cluding States that Changed Minimum Age Required to Drop Out (Whites) 64


cluding States that Changed Minimum Age Required to Drop Out (Blacks) . 65


cluding States that Changed Minimum Age Required to Drop Out (Hispanics) 66

G-23 Fixed Effects Estimates of the Effect of the Reform on Dropout Rate Exclud-

ing States that Changed the Minimum Age Required to either Drop Out or

Take the GED (All Races) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67



Take the GED (Whites) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68



Take the GED (Blacks) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69



Take the GED (Hispanics) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70

G-27 GLS Fixed Effects Estimates of the Effect of the Reform on Dropout Rates

Controlling for Age Requirements (All Races) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71


Controlling for Age Requirements (Whites) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72


Controlling for Age Requirements (Blacks) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73


Controlling for Age Requirements (Hispanics) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74

5


Controlling for Age Requirements and Using Panel Specific AR-1 Autocorre-

lation Structure (All Races) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75



lation Structure (Whites) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76



lation Structure (Blacks) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77



lation Structure (Hispanics) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78

G-35 Difference-in-Difference Estimates of the Effect of the Reform on Dropout

Rates Controlling for Age Requirements and Restricting Control Group to

California and Florida (High Immigrant States) (All Races) . . . . . . . . . . 79



California and Florida (High Immigrant States) (Whites) . . . . . . . . . . . 80



California and Florida (High Immigrant States) (Blacks) . . . . . . . . . . . 81



California and Florida (High Immigrant States) (Hispanics) . . . . . . . . . . 82

6

A Data Sources

This article uses the Common Core of Data (CCD) to construct annual exit rates from

secondary schooling. The CCD data are collected each year by the National Center for Edu-

cation Statistics from state and local departments of education. The data provide aggregate

annual counts of enrollments and diplomas issued (excluding GED certificates, certificates of

completion and other alternative credentials) at the state, district and even school level. We

use the aggregate state counts to construct various dropout measures using the methodology

summarized in the next section. Many states do not report estimates by race for all years.

They tend to be states that do not have large minority populations and therefore our esti-

mates should not be overly biased due to their exclusion. In a very small number of cases,

the estimated dropout rate was negative and these were set to missing. We experimented

with a number of imputation procedures to correct for missing values. These were found

not to affect our results in any substantial manner. The final measures used in the paper

do not contain imputations and all estimates by race are restricted to the same sample of

states to make the estimates comparable across groups. To be included in the analysis, states

needed to have at least two observations for each dropout measure in both the pre and post

treatment periods. It was not necessary to drop any treatment states in the analysis by race.

The estimates by race should be considered more cautiously than the overall estimates due

to these data limitations. For the analysis not by race only a few state-year observations are

missing for the treatment and control states.

A summary of all the variables used in our analysis broken down by treatment status

and time period are listed in Table E-3. GED testing rates by age at the individual state

level are obtained from multiple years of the annual GED statistical reports published by the

American Council on Education (ACE). GED age requirements by state are also from this

source. Mandatory school leaving age for each state was obtained from various years of the

Digest of Education Statistics. Annual measures at the state level of unemployment rates

and per capita income were obtained from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Census

7

Bureau, respectively. Population estimates at the state level for each age are obtained from

the U.S. Census Bureau. For the California analysis, population estimates were obtained

from the California Demographic Research Unit due to a lack of data available on the state

level from the Census Bureau. Diplomas issued in California and the U.S. were obtained

from various years of the Digest of Education Statistics.

District level data on the implementation of the GED Option program were collected

from unpublished administrative records from the Oregon Department of Education. These

data include which districts implemented Option programs from its introduction in the 2001-

2002 school year, through 2008. Cohort Completion rates and additional district level data

were collected from the National Center for Educational Statistics Common Core Data.

Enrollment by grade, number of diplomas issued per year, number of other completers per

year, and district-level demographics were collected from 1998 through 2008. Additional

Data from the 2000 Census incorporated into the NCES Common Core Data on poverty

rates, median family income, and per-capita income by district were also extracted

B Definitions

B.1 Weighted GED Test Taking Rate Across Groups:

Let i denote state and t denote years. The rate is

51∑i=1

G(a)i,t

P (a)i,t

,

with i = 1, ..., 51 and t = 1994, ..., 2000, where

G(a)i,t = Number of GED Test Takers Age a in state i in year t.

P (a)i,t = Population Age a in state i in year t.

8

The number of states included in each sum is the number of states in groups 1 and 3 as

defined in the text, dropping any states with fewer than two observations per period.

B.2 Overall Dropout Rate (10th-12th Grade) in state i in year t:

DOi,t =

P (15− 17)i,t

51∑i=1

P (15− 17)i,t

·(E(10)i,t−1 + E(11)i,t−1 + E(12)i,t−1)− (E(11)i,t + E(12)i,t +Hi,t)

(E(10)i,t−1 + E(11)i,t−1 + E(12)i,t−1),

with i = 1, ..., 51 and t = 1994, ..., 2000, where

P (15− 17)i,t = Population Age 15-17 for i, t.

E(10)i,t = Enrollment in Grade 10 for i, t.



Hi,t is the number who graduate in state i at time t. These are people who were enrolled in

school in the previous year.

B.3 Upper Level Dropout Rate (12th Grade) in state i in year t:

DUi,t =

P (15− 17)i,t

51∑i=1

P (15− 17)i,t

· E(12)i,t−1 −Hi,t

E(12)i,t−1

,

with i = 1, ..., 51 and t = 1994, ..., 2000.

B.4 Lower Level Dropout Rate (10th-11th Grade) in state i in

year t:

DLi,t =

P (15− 17)i,t

51∑i=1

P (15− 17)i,t

· (E(10)i,t−1 + E(11)i,t−1)− (E(11)i,t + E(12)i,t)

(E(10)i,t−1 + E(11)i,t−1),

9

with i = 1, ..., 51 and t = 1994, ..., 2000.

Weighted dropout rates by group are obtained by summing across the states in each group.

B.5 Cohort Completion Rates (8th, 9th, or 10th) in district i in

year t:

CR =Diplomasi,t

Enrollment8th,i,t−4

CR9th,i,t =Diplomasi,t


CR10th,i,t =Diplomasi,t


with t = 2000,...,2008, where:

CRjth,i,t = Completion Rates Using Base Grade j for i, t.

Diplomasi,t = Number of Diplomas Issued for i, t.

Enrollmentjth,i,t = Number of Enrolled Students in Grade j for i, t.

10

C Supplementary Materials for the 1997 Increase in

Passing Standards

11

Fig

ure

C-1

:A

vera

geP

re-

and

Pos

t-19

9710

th-1

1th

Gra

de

Dro

pou

tR

ate

for

Tre

atm

ent

and

Con

trol

Gro

up

10.8

%

8.6

%

17.0

%

16.5

%

11.2

%

8.9

%

14.0

%

15.2

%

10.5

%

8.2

%

16.0

%

14.3

%

10.5

%

8.5

%

13.4

%13

.3%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

22%

All

Races

Wh

ites

Bla

ck

sH

isp

an

ics

Dropout RateF

igu

re 8

.A

vera

ge

Pre

-an

d P

ost

-1997 1

0th

-11th

Gra

de

Dro

po

ut

Rat

e fo

r T

reat

men

t an

d C

on

tro

l G

roup

Co

ntr

ol G

roup

Pre

-97

Tre

atm

ent

Gro

up

Pre

-97

Co

ntr

ol G

roup

Po

st-9

7T

reat

men

t G

roup

Po

st-9

7

No

te: T

he

dro

po

ut

rate

is

def

ined

as

the

rati

o o

f st

ud

ents

en

rolle

d in

a g

iven

gra

de(

s) in

yea

r t

and

th

e n

um

ber

of

stud

ents

en

rolle

d in

th

e p

revio

us

grad

e(s)

in

yea

r t-

1,

wh

ere

t =

1994-2

000. A

ll es

tim

ates

are

wei

ghte

d b

y th

e 15-1

7 y

ear

old

po

pula

tio

n in

th

e gi

ven

sta

te. T

he

plo

t ab

ove

sho

ws

the

aver

age

dro

po

ut

rate

rat

e fo

r th

e p

erio

d

pre

-1997 (

i.e. 1994-1

996)

and

po

st-1

997 (

i.e. 1998-2

000).

Co

nle

y-T

aber

ad

just

edco

nfi

den

ce in

terv

als

in p

aren

thes

es.T

reat

men

t st

ates

are

th

ose

sta

tes

that

wer

e re

quir

ed t

o

elim

inat

e th

e an

d/

or

sco

re o

pti

on

. T

hes

e in

clud

e: L

A, M

S, N

E, N

M, T

X. C

on

tro

l st

ates

are

th

ose

th

at a

lrea

dy

had

hig

h e

no

ugh

sta

nd

ard

s b

y 1997. T

hes

e in

clud

e: A

R,

CA

, CO

, DE

, D

C, F

L, ID

, K

Y, M

D, M

O, N

J, N

Y, N

D, O

K, O

R, S

D, U

T, W

A, W

V, W

I. S

tate

s w

ith

few

er t

han

tw

o o

bse

rvat

ion

s p

er p

erio

d a

re d

rop

ped

fo

r 'a

ll ra

ces'

ca

tego

ry. Sta

tes

wit

h f

ewer

th

an t

wo

ob

serv

atio

ns

per

per

iod

fo

r an

y o

f th

e d

rop

out

rate

mea

sure

s b

y ra

ce a

re d

rop

ped

fo

r b

y ra

ce c

ateg

ori

es. C

on

tro

l st

ates

dro

pp

ed f

rom

'a

ll ra

ces'

reg

ress

ion

s d

ue

to m

issi

ng

and

neg

ativ

e d

rop

out

rate

s in

clud

e: N

J. C

on

tro

l st

ates

dro

pp

ed f

rom

reg

ress

ion

by

race

due

to m

issi

ng

and

neg

ativ

e d

rop

out

rate

s in

clud

e: A

R, ID

, K

Y, M

O, N

D, N

J, N

Y, SD

, U

T, W

A, W

V. N

o t

reat

men

t st

ates

are

dro

pp

ed f

rom

an

y re

gres

sio

ns.

Sin

ce t

her

e ar

e m

ore

mis

sin

gs in

th

e d

rop

out

rate

s b

y ra

ce, th

e 'a

ll ra

ces'

cat

ego

ry is

no

t d

irec

tly

com

par

able

to

th

e ca

tego

ries

by

race

. So

urc

e: C

om

mo

n C

ore

of

Dat

a (C

CD

).

DiD

Est

imate

-0

.42%

(-1.

87%

,

0.7

4%

)

DiD

Est

imate

0.0

2%

( -1

.13%

, 1.

64%

)

DiD

Est

imate

0.3

6%

(-1.

88%

, 8.3

9%

)

DiD

Est

imate

0.2

7%

(-13

.38%

, 2.5

7%

)

Note

:T

he

dro

pou

tra

teis

defi

ned

as

the

rati

oof

stud

ents

enro

lled

ina

giv

engra

de(

s)in

yea

rt

an

dth

enu

mb

erof

stu

den

tsen

roll

edin

the

pre

vio

us

gra

de(

s)in

yea

rt−

1,

wh

ere

t=1994-2

000.

All

esti

mate

sare

wei

ghte

dby

the

15-1

7yea

rold

pop

ula

tion

inth

egiv

enst

ate

.T

he

plo

tab

ove

show

sth

eaver

age

dro

pou

tra

tefo

rth

ep

erio

dp

re-1

997

(i.e

.1994-1

996)

an

dp

ost

-1997

(i.e

.1998-2

000).

Con

ley-T

ab

erad

just

edco

nfi

den

cein

terv

als

inp

are

nth

eses

.T

reatm

ent

state

sare

those

state

sth

at

wer

ere

qu

ired

toel

imin

ate

the

an

d/or

score

op

tion

.T

hes

ein

clu

de:

LA

,M

S,

NE

,N

M,

TX

.C

ontr

ol

state

sare

those

that

alr

ead

yh

ad

hig

hen

ou

gh

stan

dard

sby

1997.

Th

ese

incl

ud

e:A

R,

CA

,C

O,

DE

,

DC

,F

L,

ID,

KY

,M

D,

MO

,N

J,

NY

,N

D,

OK

,O

R,

SD

,U

T,

WA

,W

V,

WI.

Sta

tes

wit

hfe

wer

than

two

ob

serv

ati

on

sp

erp

erio

dare

dro

pp

edfo

r’a

llra

ces’

cate

gory

.S

tate

sw

ith

few

erth

an

two

ob

serv

ati

ons

per

per

iod

for

any

of

the

dro

pou

tra

tem

easu

res

by

race

are

dro

pp

edfo

rby

race

cate

gori

es.

Contr

ol

state

sd

rop

ped

from

’all

race

s’re

gre

ssio

ns

du

e

tom

issi

ng

an

dn

egati

ve

dro

pou

tra

tes

incl

ud

e:N

J.

Contr

ol

state

sd

rop

ped

from

regre

ssio

nby

race

du

eto

mis

sin

gan

dn

egati

ve

dro

pou

tra

tes

incl

ud

e:A

R,

ID,

KY

,M

O,

ND

,

NJ,

NY

,S

D,

UT

,W

A,

WV

.N

otr

eatm

ent

state

sare

dro

pp

edfr

om

any

regre

ssio

ns.

Sin

ceth

ere

are

more

mis

sin

gs

inth

ed

rop

ou

tra

tes

by

race

,th

e’a

llra

ces’

cate

gory

isn

ot

dir

ectl

yco

mp

ara

ble

toth

eca

tegori

esby

race

.S

ou

rce:

Com

mon

Core

of

Data

(CC

D).

12

Fig

ure

C-2

:W

hit

eD

rop

out

Rat

esby

Yea

r,T

reat

men

tvs.

Con

trol

Sta

tes

Note

:G

ED

test

ing

rate

sare

calc

ula

ted

from

yea

rly

GE

DS

tati

stic

al

Rep

ort

sas

the

per

centa

ge

of

the

state

pop

ula

tion

inth

egiv

enage

ran

ge

wh

ota

ke

the

GE

Din

that

yea

r.

Dro

pou

tra

tes

are

calc

ula

ted

from

the

Com

mon

Core

of

Data

(CC

D)

as

the

exit

rate

for

those

inth

ein

dic

ate

dgra

des

inth

egiv

enyea

r.S

eeth

eap

pen

dix

for

furt

her

det

ails.

Sta

tes

requ

ired

tora

ise

GE

Dp

ass

requ

irem

ents

(ch

an

ger

state

s)are

:L

A,

MS

,N

E,

NM

,T

X.

Sta

tes

that

did

not

chan

ge

pass

requ

irem

ents

(non

-ch

an

ger

state

s)are

:A

R,

CA

,

CO

,D

E,

DC

,F

L,

ID,

KY

,M

D,

MO

,N

J,

NY

,N

D,

OK

,O

R,

SD

,U

T,

WA

,W

V,

WI.

NJ

isex

clu

ded

inall

dro

pou

tca

lcu

lati

on

sd

ue

tod

ata

erro

rs.

13

Fig

ure

C-3

:B

lack

Dro

pou

tR

ates

by

Yea

r,T

reat

men

tvs.

Con

trol

Sta

tes

Note

:G

ED

test

ing

rate

sare

calc

ula

ted

from

yea

rly

GE

DS

tati

stic

al

Rep

ort

sas

the

per

centa

ge

of

the

state

pop

ula

tion

inth

egiv

enage

ran

ge

wh

ota

ke

the

GE

Din

that

yea

r.

Dro

pou

tra

tes

are

calc

ula

ted

from

the

Com

mon

Core

of

Data

(CC

D)

as

the

exit

rate

for

those

inth

ein

dic

ate

dgra

des

inth

egiv

enyea

r.S

eeth

eap

pen

dix

for

furt

her

det

ails.

Sta

tes

requ

ired

tora

ise

GE

Dp

ass

requ

irem

ents

(ch

an

ger

state

s)are

:L

A,

MS

,N

E,

NM

,T

X.

Sta

tes

that

did

not

chan

ge

pass

requ

irem

ents

(non

-ch

an

ger

state

s)are

:A

R,

CA

,

CO

,D

E,

DC

,F

L,

ID,

KY

,M

D,

MO

,N

J,

NY

,N

D,

OK

,O

R,

SD

,U

T,

WA

,W

V,

WI.

NJ

isex

clu

ded

inall

dro

pou

tca

lcu

lati

on

sd

ue

tod

ata

erro

rs.

14

Fig

ure

C-4

:H

ispan

icD

rop

out

Rat

esby

Yea

r,T

reat

men

tvs.

Con

trol

Sta

tes

Note

:G

ED

test

ing

rate

sare

calc

ula

ted

from

yea

rly

GE

DS

tati

stic

al

Rep

ort

sas

the

per

centa

ge

of

the

state

pop

ula

tion

inth

egiv

enage

ran

ge

wh

ota

ke

the

GE

Din

that

yea

r.

Dro

pou

tra

tes

are

calc

ula

ted

from

the

Com

mon

Core

of

Data

(CC

D)

as

the

exit

rate

for

those

inth

ein

dic

ate

dgra

des

inth

egiv

enyea

r.S

eeth

eap

pen

dix

for

furt

her

det

ails.

Sta

tes

requ

ired

tora

ise

GE

Dp

ass

requ

irem

ents

(ch

an

ger

state

s)are

:L

A,

MS

,N

E,

NM

,T

X.

Sta

tes

that

did

not

chan

ge

pass

requ

irem

ents

(non

-ch

an

ger

state

s)are

:A

R,

CA

,

CO

,D

E,

DC

,F

L,

ID,

KY

,M

D,

MO

,N

J,

NY

,N

D,

OK

,O

R,

SD

,U

T,

WA

,W

V,

WI.

NJ

isex

clu

ded

inall

dro

pou

tca

lcu

lati

on

sd

ue

tod

ata

erro

rs.

15

D Robustness Checks for the Effect of the 1997 In-

crease in Passing Standards

This section reports alternative specifications of our model in the main text to test the

robustness of the results (Table D-1). As in the main text, we only report the γ estimates

for each check. For the full set of parameter estimates please refer to the Web Appendix.

D.1 Alternate Control Group

As one check of the exogeneity of the policy change assumption, we re-estimate the model

using states that were required to raise the GED minimum score requirement rather than

states that did not change. These are the lightly shaded states in Figure 4 in the text.

These states were also required to change GED policies but the increase in difficulty was

much smaller.

The first row of Table D-1 summarizes our overall results and results by race using this

alternate control group. The estimated effect on the upper level dropout rate is in general

larger than the effect obtained from our main control group. On the other hand, the effect

on the lower level dropout rate is in general smaller except for whites. However, these results

are generally consistent with the results reported in the text.

D.2 Southern States Only

With the exception of Nebraska, all treatment group states are located in the South. This

suggests that while the timing of the score requirement change was exogenous, the states

that were required to change were not a random sample of states. States likely set GED

standards endogenously to reflect conditions in the state, i.e. states with traditionally higher

dropout rates have lower GED testing standards. As a further robustness check of our main

results, we estimate the model using only treatment and control states located in the South.

The estimates, shown in the second row of Table D-1, are very similar to those reported

16

Tab

leD

-1:

Sum

mar

yof

Rob

ust

nes

sC

hec

ks

All

Rac

esW

hit

esB

lack

sH

isp

anic

sTr

eatm

ent E

ffect

-1.5

3%-1

.08%

-1.9

0%-2

.67%

95%

CI (

Hub

er-W

hite

)(-2

.37%

, -0.

68%

)(-1

.92%

, -0.

24%

)(-4

.00%

, 0.2

1%)

(-4.8

7%, -

0.47

%)

95%

CI (

Conl

ey-T

aber

)(-2

.19%

, -0.

49%

)(-3

.40%

, 0.1

5%)

(-4.3

9%, 2

.06%

)(-6

.17%

, -0.

98%

)90

% C

I (Co

nley

-Tab

er)

(-2.0

5%, -

0.64

%)

(-3.0

2%, -

0.02

%)

(-3.8

6%, 1

.40%

)(-5

.68%

, -1.

33%

)Tr

eatm

ent E

ffect

-1.4

5%-0

.42%

-2.1

6%-3

.08%

95%

CI (

Hub

er-W

hite

)(-1

.91%

, -1.

00%

)(-0

.75%

, -0.

10%

)(-3

.23%

, -1.

09%

)(-5

.51%

, -0.

65%

)95

% C

I (Co

nley

-Tab

er)

(-2.0

4%, 0

.06%

)(-0

.79%

, 2.8

2%)

(-3.3

9%, -

1.18

%)

(-7.5

3%, -

0.72

%)

90%

CI (

Conl

ey-T

aber

)(-1

.91%

, -0.

14%

)(-0

.65%

, 1.5

2%)

(-2.9

6%, -

1.29

%)

(-7.2

3%, -

0.99

%)

Trea

tmen

t Effe

ct-1

.30%

-0.4

2%-1

.25%

-2.5

8%95

% C

I (H

uber

-Whi

te)

(-2.0

6%, -

0.53

%)

(-0.7

7%, -

0.07

%)

(-3.4

2%, 0

.92%

)(-3

.47%

, -1.

70%

)95

% C

I (Co

nley

-Tab

er)

(-2.5

6%, -

0.37

%)

(-0.9

0%, 0

.15%

)(-3

.00%

, 3.4

7%)

(-3.7

2%, 0

.48%

)90

% C

I (Co

nley

-Tab

er)

(-2.3

0%, -

0.56

%)

(-0.8

0%, 0

.03%

)(-2

.69%

, 2.6

0%)

(-3.5

6%, -

0.06

%)

Not

e: Th

e fu

ll re

gres

sion

spec

ifica

tions

are

pre

sent

ed in

the

web

app

endi

x. U

nles

s oth

erw

ise st

ated

the

mod

el is

estim

ated

usin

g O

LS. S

tate

15-

17 y

ear o

ld p

opul

atio

ns

(by

race

for r

eleva

nt re

gres

sions

) are

use

d as

weig

hts.

The

estim

ate

repo

rted

abov

e is

the

inte

ract

ion

betw

een

the

treat

men

t sta

te d

umm

y an

d th

e po

st p

erio

d du

mm

y, w

here

the

treat

men

t sta

te d

umm

y is

equa

l to

1 fo

r tre

atm

ent s

tate

s and

the

post

per

iod

dum

my

is eq

ual t

o 1

for t

he y

ears

199

8-20

00, o

ther

wise

bot

h du

mm

ies a

re e

qual

to 0

. Sta

tes w

ith fe

wer

than

two

obse

rvat

ions

per

per

iod

are

drop

ped

for "

all ra

ces"

regr

essio

ns. S

tate

s with

few

er th

an tw

o ob

serv

atio

ns p

er p

erio

d fo

r any

of t

he

drop

out r

ate

mea

sure

s by

race

are

dro

pped

for b

y ra

ce re

gres

sions

. Tre

atm

ent s

tate

s are

thos

e st

ates

that

wer

e re

quire

d to

elim

inat

e th

e an

d/or

scor

e op

tion.

The

se

inclu

de: L

A, M

S, N

E, N

M, T

X. U

nles

s oth

erw

ise st

ated

con

trol s

tate

s are

thos

e th

at w

ere

not r

equi

red

to ra

ise th

eir G

ED

min

imum

scor

e re

quire

men

t. Th

ese

inclu

de:

AR,

CA

, CO

, DE

, DC,

FL,

ID, K

Y, M

D, M

O, N

J, N

Y, N

D, O

K, O

R, S

D, U

T, W

A, W

V, W

I. Fr

om th

ese

stat

es th

e fo

llow

ing

had

to b

e dr

oppe

d fr

om th

e "b

y ra

ce"

regr

essio

ns d

ue to

miss

ing

and

nega

tive

drop

out r

ates

: AR,

ID, K

Y, M

O, N

D, N

J, N

Y, S

D, U

T, W

A, W

V. T

he st

ate

of N

J is a

lso d

ropp

ed fr

om th

e "a

ll ra

ces"

re

gres

sions

. Sco

re c

hang

er st

ates

are

thos

e st

ates

that

wer

e re

quire

d to

raise

their

min

imum

scor

e re

quire

men

t fro

m 3

5 to

40

in 1

997.

The

se in

clude

: AK

, AL,

AZ

, CT,

G

A, H

I, IA

, IL,

IN, K

S, M

A, M

E, M

I, M

N, M

T, N

C, N

H, N

V, O

H, P

A, R

I, SC

, TN

, VA

, VT,

WY

. Fro

m th

ese

stat

es th

e fo

llow

ing

are

drop

ped

due

to m

issin

g an

d ne

gativ

e dr

opou

t rat

es: A

L, A

Z, I

A, M

E, M

N, M

T, N

H, S

C, T

N, V

T, W

Y. N

o tre

atm

ent s

tate

s are

dro

pped

from

any

of t

he re

gres

sions

. Sta

tes t

hat c

hang

ed th

e m

inim

um a

ge re

quire

d to

dro

p ou

t inc

lude

: DC

(from

orig

inal

cont

rol g

roup

), M

S an

d N

M (b

oth

from

trea

tmen

t gro

up).

Stat

es th

at c

hang

ed e

ither

scho

ol le

avin

g or

G

ED

age

requ

irem

ents

inclu

de:

AR,

DC,

KY

, MO

, OK

, OR,

SD

, UT,

WI (

from

orig

inal

cont

rol g

roup

) and

MS,

NE

and

NM

(fro

m tr

eatm

ent g

roup

).

Exc

ludi

ng st

ates

that

ch

ange

d m

inim

um a

ge

requ

ired

to d

rop

out

10th

-12t

h G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e

Sout

hern

stat

es o

nly

Scor

e ch

ange

r sta

tes a

s co

ntro

l gro

up

Note

:T

he

full

regre

ssio

nsp

ecifi

cati

on

sare

pre

sente

din

the

Web

Ap

pen

dix

.U

nle

ssoth

erw

ise

state

dth

em

od

elis

esti

mate

du

sin

gO

LS

.S

tate

15-1

7yea

rold

pop

ula

tion

s(b

y

race

for

rele

vant

regre

ssio

ns)

are

use

das

wei

ghts

.T

he

esti

mate

rep

ort

edab

ove

isth

ein

tera

ctio

nb

etw

een

the

trea

tmen

tst

ate

du

mm

yan

dth

ep

ost

per

iod

du

mm

y,w

her

eth

e

trea

tmen

tst

ate

du

mm

yis

equ

al

to1

for

trea

tmen

tst

ate

san

dth

ep

ost

per

iod

du

mm

yis

equ

al

to1

for

the

yea

rs1998-2

000,

oth

erw

ise

both

du

mm

ies

are

equ

al

to0.

Sta

tes

wit

h

few

erth

an

two

ob

serv

ati

on

sp

erp

erio

dare

dro

pp

edfo

r“all

race

s”re

gre

ssio

ns.

Sta

tes

wit

hfe

wer

than

two

ob

serv

ati

on

sp

erp

erio

dfo

rany

of

the

dro

pou

tra

tem

easu

res

by

race

are

dro

pp

edfo

rby

race

regre

ssio

ns.

Tre

atm

ent

state

sare

those

state

sth

at

wer

ere

qu

ired

toel

imin

ate

the

an

d/or

score

op

tion

.T

hes

ein

clu

de:

LA

,M

S,

NE

,N

M,

TX

.U

nle

ss

oth

erw

ise

state

dco

ntr

ol

state

sare

those

that

wer

en

ot

requ

ired

tora

ise

thei

rG

ED

min

imu

msc

ore

requ

irem

ent.

Th

ese

incl

ud

e:A

R,

CA

,C

O,

DE

,D

C,

FL

,ID

,K

Y,

MD

,M

O,

NJ,

NY

,N

D,

OK

,O

R,

SD

,U

T,

WA

,W

V,

WI.

Fro

mth

ese

state

sth

efo

llow

ing

had

tob

ed

rop

ped

from

the

”by

race

”re

gre

ssio

ns

du

eto

mis

sin

gan

dn

egati

ve

dro

pou

tra

tes:

AR

,ID

,K

Y,

MO

,N

D,

NJ,

NY

,S

D,

UT

,W

A,

WV

.T

he

state

of

NJ

isals

od

rop

ped

from

the

”all

race

s”re

gre

ssio

ns.

Sco

rech

an

ger

state

sare

those

state

sth

at

wer

ere

qu

ired

to

rais

eth

eir

min

imu

msc

ore

requ

irem

ent

from

35

to40

in1997.

Thes

ein

clu

de:

AK

,A

L,

AZ

,C

T,

GA

,H

I,IA

,IL

,IN

,K

S,

MA

,M

E,

MI,

MN

,M

T,

NC

,N

H,

NV

,O

H,

PA

,R

I,S

C,

TN

,V

A,

VT

,W

Y.

Fro

mth

ese

state

sth

efo

llow

ing

are

dro

pp

edd

ue

tom

issi

ng

an

dn

egati

ve

dro

pou

tra

tes:

AL

,A

Z,

IA,

ME

,M

N,

MT

,N

H,

SC

,T

N,

VT

,W

Y.

No

trea

tmen

t

state

sare

dro

pp

edfr

om

any

of

the

regre

ssio

ns.

Sta

tes

that

chan

ged

the

min

imu

mage

requ

ired

tod

rop

ou

tin

clu

de:

DC

(fro

mori

gin

al

contr

ol

gro

up

),M

San

dN

M(b

oth

from

trea

tmen

tgro

up

).S

tate

sth

at

chan

ged

eith

ersc

hool

leavin

gor

GE

Dage

requ

irem

ents

incl

ud

e:A

R,

DC

,K

Y,

MO

,O

K,

OR

,S

D,

UT

,W

I(f

rom

ori

gin

al

contr

ol

gro

up

)an

dM

S,

NE

an

dN

M(f

rom

trea

tmen

tgro

up

).

17

Tab

leD

-1:

Sum

mar

yof

Rob

ust

nes

sC

hec

ks

(Con

tinued

)

All

Rac

esW

hit

esB

lack

sH

isp

anic

sTr

eatm

ent E

ffect

-1.5

3%-1

.08%

-1.9

0%-2

.67%

95%

CI (

Hub

er-W

hite

)(-2

.37%

, -0.

68%

)(-1

.92%

, -0.

24%

)(-4

.00%

, 0.2

1%)

(-4.8

7%, -

0.47

%)

95%

CI (

Conl

ey-T

aber

)(-2

.19%

, -0.

49%

)(-3

.40%

, 0.1

5%)

(-4.3

9%, 2

.06%

)(-6

.17%

, -0.

98%

)90

% C

I (Co

nley

-Tab

er)

(-2.0

5%, -

0.64

%)

(-3.0

2%, -

0.02

%)

(-3.8

6%, 1

.40%

)(-5

.68%

, -1.

33%

)Tr

eatm

ent E

ffect

-1.4

5%-0

.42%

-2.1

6%-3

.08%

95%

CI (

Hub

er-W

hite

)(-1

.91%

, -1.

00%

)(-0

.75%

, -0.

10%

)(-3

.23%

, -1.

09%

)(-5

.51%

, -0.

65%

)

10th

-12t

h G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e

Sout

hern

stat

es o

nly

Scor

e ch

ange

r sta

tes a

s co

ntro

l gro

up

95%

C(H

beW

te)

(.9

%,

.00%

)(0

.75%

,0.

0%)

(3.

3%,

.09%

)(5

.5%

,0.

65%

)95

% C

I (Co

nley

-Tab

er)

(-2.0

4%, 0

.06%

)(-0

.79%

, 2.8

2%)

(-3.3

9%, -

1.18

%)

(-7.5

3%, -

0.72

%)

90%

CI (

Conl

ey-T

aber

)(-1

.91%

, -0.

14%

)(-0

.65%

, 1.5

2%)

(-2.9

6%, -

1.29

%)

(-7.2

3%, -

0.99

%)

Trea

tmen

t Effe

ct-1

.30%

-0.4

2%-1

.25%

-2.5

8%95

% C

I (H

uber

-Whi

te)

(-2.0

6%, -

0.53

%)

(-0.7

7%, -

0.07

%)

(-3.4

2%, 0

.92%

)(-3

.47%

, -1.

70%

)95

% C

I (Co

nley

-Tab

er)

(-2.5

6%, -

0.37

%)

(-0.9

0%, 0

.15%

)(-3

.00%

, 3.4

7%)

(-3.7

2%, 0

.48%

)90

% C

I (Co

nley

-Tab

er)

(-2.3

0%, -

0.56

%)

(-0.8

0%, 0

.03%

)(-2

.69%

, 2.6

0%)

(-3.5

6%, -

0.06

%)

Not

e: Th

e fu

ll re

gres

sion

spec

ifica

tions

are

pre

sent

ed in

the

web

app

endi

x. U

nles

s oth

erw

ise st

ated

the

mod

el is

estim

ated

usin

g O

LS. S

tate

15-

17 y

ear o

ld p

opul

atio

ns

(by

race

for r

eleva

nt re

gres

sions

) are

use

d as

weig

hts.

The

estim

ate

repo

rted

abov

e is

the

inte

ract

ion

betw

een

the

treat

men

t sta

te d

umm

y an

d th

e po

st p

erio

d du

mm

y, w

here

the

treat

men

t sta

te d

umm

y is

equa

l to

1 fo

r tre

atm

ent s

tate

s and

the

post

per

iod

dum

my

is eq

ual t

o 1

for t

he y

ears

199

8-20

00, o

ther

wise

bot

h du

mm

ies a

re e

qual

0S

ihf

hb

ii

dd

df

"ll

"i

Sih

fh

bi

id

ff

h

Exc

ludi

ng st

ates

that

ch

ange

d m

inim

um a

ge

requ

ired

to d

rop

out

to 0

. Sta

tes w

ith fe

wer

than

two

obse

rvat

ions

per

per

iod

are

drop

ped

for "

all ra

ces"

regr

essio

ns. S

tate

s with

few

er th

an tw

o ob

serv

atio

ns p

er p

erio

d fo

r any

of t

he

drop

out r

ate

mea

sure

s by

race

are

dro

pped

for b

y ra

ce re

gres

sions

. Tre

atm

ent s

tate

s are

thos

e st

ates

that

wer

e re

quire

d to

elim

inat

e th

e an

d/or

scor

e op

tion.

The

se

inclu

de: L

A, M

S, N

E, N

M, T

X. U

nles

s oth

erw

ise st

ated

con

trol s

tate

s are

thos

e th

at w

ere

not r

equi

red

to ra

ise th

eir G

ED

min

imum

scor

e re

quire

men

t. Th

ese

inclu

de:

AR,

CA

, CO

, DE

, DC,

FL,

ID, K

Y, M

D, M

O, N

J, N

Y, N

D, O

K, O

R, S

D, U

T, W

A, W

V, W

I. Fr

om th

ese

stat

es th

e fo

llow

ing

had

to b

e dr

oppe

d fr

om th

e "b

y ra

ce"

regr

essio

ns d

ue to

miss

ing

and

nega

tive

drop

out r

ates

: AR,

ID, K

Y, M

O, N

D, N

J, N

Y, S

D, U

T, W

A, W

V. T

he st

ate

of N

J is a

lso d

ropp

ed fr

om th

e "a

ll ra

ces"

re

gres

sions

. Sco

re c

hang

er st

ates

are

thos

e st

ates

that

wer

e re

quire

d to

raise

their

min

imum

scor

e re

quire

men

t fro

m 3

5 to

40

in 1

997.

The

se in

clude

: AK

, AL,

AZ

, CT,

G

A, H

I, IA

, IL,

IN, K

S, M

A, M

E, M

I, M

N, M

T, N

C, N

H, N

V, O

H, P

A, R

I, SC

, TN

, VA

, VT,

WY

. Fro

m th

ese

stat

es th

e fo

llow

ing

are

drop

ped

due

to m

issin

g an

d ne

gativ

e dr

opou

t rat

es: A

L, A

Z, I

A, M

E, M

N, M

T, N

H, S

C, T

N, V

T, W

Y. N

o tre

atm

ent s

tate

s are

dro

pped

from

any

of t

he re

gres

sions

. Sta

tes t

hat c

hang

ed th

e m

inim

um a

ge re

quire

d to

dro

p ou

t inc

lude

: DC

(from

orig

inal

cont

rol g

roup

), M

S an

d N

M (b

oth

from

trea

tmen

t gro

up).

Stat

es th

at c

hang

ed e

ither

scho

ol le

avin

g or

G

ED

age

requ

irem

ents

inclu

de:

AR,

DC,

KY

, MO

, OK

, OR,

SD

, UT,

WI (

from

orig

inal

cont

rol g

roup

) and

MS,

NE

and

NM

(fro

m tr

eatm

ent g

roup

).

10th

-11t

hG

rad

eD

rop

out

Rat

e

All

Rac

esW

hit

esB

lack

sH

isp

anic

s

Trea

tmen

t Effe

ct-0

.23%

-0.3

9%0.

25%

-1.0

9%95

% C

I (H

uber

-Whi

te)

(-0.9

1%, 0

.47%

)(-1

.10%

, 0.3

2%)

(-2.7

4%, 3

.25%

)(-4

.33%

, 2.1

5%)

95%

CI (

Conl

ey-T

aber

)(-1

.47%

, 0.6

6%)

(-3.2

2%, 0

.52%

)(-2

.43%

, 6.1

2%)

(-4.8

2%, 0

.92%

)90

% C

I (Co

nley

-Tab

er)

(-1.3

1%, 0

.47%

)(-2

.75%

, 0.3

9%)

(-2.0

1%, 4

.83%

)(-4

.34%

, 0.4

8%)

Trea

tmen

t Effe

ct-0

.95%

-0.5

3%-1

.59%

-1.8

9%95

% C

I (H

uber

-Whi

te)

(-1.5

2%, -

0.38

%)

(-1.5

6%, 0

.50%

)(-3

.67%

, 0.4

8%)

(-5.1

6%, 1

.39%

)95

%CI

(Cl

Tb

)(1

83%

086

%)

(126

%1

77%

)(3

59%

015

%)

(906

%0

14%

)

Scor

e ch

ange

r sta

tes a

s co

ntro

l gro

up

Sout

hern

stat

es o

nly

10th

-11t

h G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e

95%

CI (

Conl

ey-T

aber

)(-1

.83%

, 0.8

6%)

(-1.2

6%, 1

.77%

)(-3

.59%

, -0.

15%

)(-9

.06%

, 0.1

4%)

90%

CI (

Conl

ey-T

aber

)(-1

.71%

, 0.5

6%)

(-1.1

1%, 1

.11%

)(-3

.09%

, -0.

52%

)(-8

.18%

, -0.

34%

)Tr

eatm

ent E

ffect

-0.5

6%0.

01%

0.13

%-1

.25%

95%

CI (

Hub

er-W

hite

)(-1

.68%

, 0.5

7%)

(-1.0

3%, 1

.05%

)(-3

.49%

, 3.7

4%)

(-2.4

0%, -

0.09

%)

95%

CI (

Conl

ey-T

aber

)(-1

.91%

, 0.6

11%

)(-0

.95%

, 1.3

9%)

(-2.7

6%, 7

.41%

)-3

.73%

, 2.6

6%)

90%

CI (

Conl

ey-T

aber

)(-1

.73%

, 0.3

9%)

(-0.8

8%, 0

.99%

)(-2

.50%

, 5.0

0%)

(-3.3

1%, 1

.63%

)N

ote:

The

full

regr

essio

n sp

ecifi

catio

ns a

re p

rese

nted

in th

e w

eb a

ppen

dix.

Unl

ess o

ther

wise

stat

ed th

e m

odel

is es

timat

ed u

sing

OLS

. Sta

te 1

5-17

yea

r old

pop

ulat

ions

(b

y ra

ce fo

r rele

vant

regr

essio

ns) a

re u

sed

as w

eight

s. Th

e es

timat

e re

porte

d ab

ove

is th

e in

tera

ctio

n be

twee

n th

e tre

atm

ent s

tate

dum

my

and

the

post

per

iod

dum

my,

whe

re th

e tre

atm

ent s

tate

dum

my

is eq

ual t

o 1

for t

reat

men

t sta

tes a

nd th

e po

st p

erio

d du

mm

y is

equa

l to

1 fo

r the

yea

rs 1

998-

2000

, oth

erw

ise b

oth

dum

mies

are

equ

al

Exc

ludi

ng st

ates

that

ch

ange

d m

inim

um a

ge

requ

ired

to d

rop

out

to 0

. Sta

tes w

ith fe

wer

than

two

obse

rvat

ions

per

per

iod

are

drop

ped

for "

all ra

ces"

regr

essio

ns. S

tate

s with

few

er th

an tw

o ob

serv

atio

ns p

er p

erio

d fo

r any

of t

he

drop

out r

ate

mea

sure

s by

race

are

dro

pped

for b

y ra

ce re

gres

sions

. Tre

atm

ent s

tate

s are

thos

e st

ates

that

wer

e re

quire

d to

elim

inat

e th

e an

d/or

scor

e op

tion.

The

se

inclu

de: L

A, M

S, N

E, N

M, T

X. U

nles

s oth

erw

ise st

ated

con

trol s

tate

s are

thos

e th

at w

ere

not r

equi

red

to ra

ise th

eir G

ED

min

imum

scor

e re

quire

men

t. Th

ese

inclu

de:

AR,

CA

, CO

, DE

, DC,

FL,

ID, K

Y, M

D, M

O, N

J, N

Y, N

D, O

K, O

R, S

D, U

T, W

A, W

V, W

I. Fr

om th

ese

stat

es th

e fo

llow

ing

had

to b

e dr

oppe

d fr

om th

e "b

y ra

ce"

regr

essio

ns d

ue to

miss

ing

and

nega

tive

drop

out r

ates

: AR,

ID, K

Y, M

O, N

D, N

J, N

Y, S

D, U

T, W

A, W

V. T

he st

ate

of N

J is a

lso d

ropp

ed fr

om th

e "a

ll ra

ces"

re

gres

sions

. Sco

re c

hang

er st

ates

are

thos

e st

ates

that

wer

e re

quire

d to

raise

their

min

imum

scor

e re

quire

men

t fro

m 3

5 to

40

in 1

997.

The

se in

clude

: AK

, AL,

AZ

, CT,

G

A, H

I, IA

, IL,

IN, K

S, M

A, M

E, M

I, M

N, M

T, N

C, N

H, N

V, O

H, P

A, R

I, SC

, TN

, VA

, VT,

WY

. Fro

m th

ese

stat

es th

e fo

llow

ing

are

drop

ped

due

to m

issin

g an

d ne

gativ

e dr

opou

t rat

es: A

L, A

Z, I

A, M

E, M

N, M

T, N

H, S

C, T

N, V

T, W

Y. N

o tre

atm

ent s

tate

s are

dro

pped

from

any

of t

he re

gres

sions

. Sta

tes t

hat c

hang

ed th

e m

inim

um a

ge re

quire

d to

dro

p ou

t inc

lude

: DC

(from

orig

inal

cont

rol g

roup

), M

S an

d N

M (b

oth

from

trea

tmen

t gro

up).

Stat

es th

at c

hang

ed e

ither

scho

ol le

avin

g or

G

ED

age

requ

irem

ents

inclu

de:

AR,

DC,

KY

, MO

, OK

, OR,

SD

, UT,

WI (

from

orig

inal

cont

rol g

roup

) and

MS,

NE

and

NM

(fro

m tr

eatm

ent g

roup

).

Note

:T

he

full

regre

ssio

nsp

ecifi

cati

on

sare

pre

sente

din

the

Web

Ap

pen

dix

.U

nle

ssoth

erw

ise

state

dth

em

od

elis

esti

mate

du

sin

gO

LS

.S

tate

15-1

7yea

rold

pop

ula

tion

s(b

y

race

for

rele

vant

regre

ssio

ns)

are

use

das

wei

ghts

.T

he

esti

mate

rep

ort

edab

ove

isth

ein

tera

ctio

nb

etw

een

the

trea

tmen

tst

ate

du

mm

yan

dth

ep

ost

per

iod

du

mm

y,w

her

eth

e

trea

tmen

tst

ate

du

mm

yis

equ

al

to1

for

trea

tmen

tst

ate

san

dth

ep

ost

per

iod

du

mm

yis

equ

al

to1

for

the

yea

rs1998-2

000,

oth

erw

ise

both

du

mm

ies

are

equ

al

to0.

Sta

tes

wit

h

few

erth

an

two

ob

serv

ati

on

sp

erp

erio

dare

dro

pp

edfo

r“all

race

s”re

gre

ssio

ns.

Sta

tes

wit

hfe

wer

than

two

ob

serv

ati

on

sp

erp

erio

dfo

rany

of

the

dro

pou

tra

tem

easu

res

by

race

are

dro

pp

edfo

rby

race

regre

ssio

ns.

Tre

atm

ent

state

sare

those

state

sth

at

wer

ere

qu

ired

toel

imin

ate

the

an

d/or

score

op

tion

.T

hes

ein

clu

de:

LA

,M

S,

NE

,N

M,

TX

.U

nle

ss

oth

erw

ise

state

dco

ntr

ol

state

sare

those

that

wer

en

ot

requ

ired

tora

ise

thei

rG

ED

min

imu

msc

ore

requ

irem

ent.

Th

ese

incl

ud

e:A

R,

CA

,C

O,

DE

,D

C,

FL

,ID

,K

Y,

MD

,M

O,

NJ,

NY

,N

D,

OK

,O

R,

SD

,U

T,

WA

,W

V,

WI.

Fro

mth

ese

state

sth

efo

llow

ing

had

tob

ed

rop

ped

from

the

”by

race

”re

gre

ssio

ns

du

eto

mis

sin

gan

dn

egati

ve

dro

pou

tra

tes:

AR

,ID

,K

Y,

MO

,N

D,

NJ,

NY

,S

D,

UT

,W

A,

WV

.T

he

state

of

NJ

isals

od

rop

ped

from

the

”all

race

s”re

gre

ssio

ns.

Sco

rech

an

ger

state

sare

those

state

sth

at

wer

ere

qu

ired

to

rais

eth

eir

min

imu

msc

ore

requ

irem

ent

from

35

to40

in1997.

Thes

ein

clu

de:

AK

,A

L,

AZ

,C

T,

GA

,H

I,IA

,IL

,IN

,K

S,

MA

,M

E,

MI,

MN

,M

T,

NC

,N

H,

NV

,O

H,

PA

,R

I,S

C,

TN

,V

A,

VT

,W

Y.

Fro

mth

ese

state

sth

efo

llow

ing

are

dro

pp

edd

ue

tom

issi

ng

an

dn

egati

ve

dro

pou

tra

tes:

AL

,A

Z,

IA,

ME

,M

N,

MT

,N

H,

SC

,T

N,

VT

,W

Y.

No

trea

tmen

t

state

sare

dro

pp

edfr

om

any

of

the

regre

ssio

ns.

Sta

tes

that

chan

ged

the

min

imu

mage

requ

ired

tod

rop

ou

tin

clu

de:

DC

(fro

mori

gin

al

contr

ol

gro

up

),M

San

dN

M(b

oth

from

trea

tmen

tgro

up

).S

tate

sth

at

chan

ged

eith

ersc

hool

leavin

gor

GE

Dage

requ

irem

ents

incl

ud

e:A

R,

DC

,K

Y,

MO

,O

K,

OR

,S

D,

UT

,W

I(f

rom

ori

gin

al

contr

ol

gro

up

)an

dM

S,

NE

an

dN

M(f

rom

trea

tmen

tgro

up

).

18

Tab

leD

-1:

Sum

mar

yof

Rob

ust

nes

sC

hec

ks

(Con

tinued

)

All

Rac

esW

hit

esB

lack

sH

isp

anic

s

Trea

tmen

t Effe

ct-4

.83%

-2.1

1%-6

.10%

-6.6

6%95

% C

I (H

uber

-Whi

te)

(-7.0

5%, -

2.59

%)

(-4.5

2%, 0

.29%

)(-1

5.98

%, 3

.78%

)(-9

.55%

, -3.

78%

)

12th

Gra

de

Dro

pou

t R

ate

Scor

e ch

ange

r sta

tes a

s co

ntro

l gro

up

95%

CI (

Conl

ey-T

aber

)(-6

.62%

, -0.

79%

)(-4

.72%

, 1.5

4%)

(-1.2

3%, 3

.87%

)(-1

1.18

%, -

1.62

%)

90%

CI (

Conl

ey-T

aber

)(-6

.12%

, -1.

28%

)(-4

.33%

, 1.0

8%)

(-1.0

6%, 2

.49%

)(-1

0.15

%, -

2.22

%)

Trea

tmen

t Effe

ct-2

.17%

0.07

%-3

.30%

-5.8

2%95

% C

I (H

uber

-Whi

te)

(-4.2

9%, 0

.05%

)(-2

.76%

, 2.9

0%)

(-8.4

8%, 1

.87%

)(-8

.04%

, -3.

61%

)95

% C

I (Co

nley

-Tab

er)

(-4.3

7%, 0

.13%

)(-3

.65%

, 1.9

5%)

(-7.5

6%, 4

.04%

)(-7

.69%

, 6.7

0%)

90%

CI (

Conl

ey-T

aber

)(-3

.94%

, -0.

13%

)(-2

.06%

, 1.7

7%)

(-5.9

7%, 2

.53%

)(-7

.47%

, 1.2

7%)

Trea

tmen

t Effe

ct-2

.93%

-1.2

8%-4

.76%

-5.9

8%95

% C

I (H

uber

-Whi

te)

(-4.2

9%, -

1.57

%)

(-3.3

0%, 0

.74%

)(-8

.63%

, -0.

90%

)(-7

.05%

, -4.

92%

)

Sout

hern

stat

es o

nly

Exc

ludi

ng st

ates

that

ch

ange

d m

inim

um a

ge

id

d95

% C

I (H

uber

Whi

te)

(4.2

9%,

1.57

%)

(3.3

0%, 0

.74%

)(8

.63%

, 0.

90%

)(7

.05%

, 4.

92%

)95

% C

I (Co

nley

-Tab

er)

(-6.4

1%, -

0.46

%)

(-3.8

5%, 1

.67%

)(-9

.84%

, 1.5

2%)

(-9.9

7%, 1

.32%

)90

% C

I (Co

nley

-Tab

er)

(-5.5

7%, -

0.91

%)

(-3.2

1%, 1

.07%

)(-8

.86%

, 1.1

5%)

(-8.4

5%, 0

.29%

)

requ

ired

to d

rop

out

Not

e: Th

e fu

ll re

gres

sion

spec

ifica

tions

are

pre

sent

ed in

the

web

app

endi

x. U

nles

s oth

erw

ise st

ated

the

mod

el is

estim

ated

usin

g O

LS. S

tate

15-

17 y

ear o

ld p

opul

atio

ns

(by

race

for r

eleva

nt re

gres

sions

) are

use

d as

weig

hts.

The

estim

ate

repo

rted

abov

e is

the

inte

ract

ion

betw

een

the

treat

men

t sta

te d

umm

y an

d th

e po

st p

erio

d du

mm

y, w

here

the

treat

men

t sta

te d

umm

y is

equa

l to

1 fo

r tre

atm

ent s

tate

s and

the

post

per

iod

dum

my

is eq

ual t

o 1

for t

he y

ears

199

8-20

00, o

ther

wise

bot

h du

mm

ies a

re e

qual

to 0

. Sta

tes w

ith fe

wer

than

two

obse

rvat

ions

per

per

iod

are

drop

ped

for "

all ra

ces"

regr

essio

ns. S

tate

s with

few

er th

an tw

o ob

serv

atio

ns p

er p

erio

d fo

r any

of t

he

drop

out r

ate

mea

sure

s by

race

are

dro

pped

for b

y ra

ce re

gres

sions

. Tre

atm

ent s

tate

s are

thos

e st

ates

that

wer

e re

quire

d to

elim

inat

e th

e an

d/or

scor

e op

tion.

The

se

inclu

de: L

A, M

S, N

E, N

M, T

X. U

nles

s oth

erw

ise st

ated

con

trol s

tate

s are

thos

e th

at w

ere

not r

equi

red

to ra

ise th

eir G

ED

min

imum

scor

e re

quire

men

t. Th

ese

inclu

de:

AR,

CA

, CO

, DE

, DC,

FL,

ID, K

Y, M

D, M

O, N

J, N

Y, N

D, O

K, O

R, S

D, U

T, W

A, W

V, W

I. Fr

om th

ese

stat

es th

e fo

llow

ing

had

to b

e dr

oppe

d fr

om th

e "b

y ra

ce"

regr

essio

ns d

ue to

miss

ing

and

nega

tive

drop

out r

ates

: AR,

ID, K

Y, M

O, N

D, N

J, N

Y, S

D, U

T, W

A, W

V. T

he st

ate

of N

J is a

lso d

ropp

ed fr

om th

e "a

ll ra

ces"

g

gg

p,

,,

,,

J,,

,,

,J

ppre

gres

sions

. Sco

re c

hang

er st

ates

are

thos

e st

ates

that

wer

e re

quire

d to

raise

their

min

imum

scor

e re

quire

men

t fro

m 3

5 to

40

in 1

997.

The

se in

clude

: AK

, AL,

AZ

, CT,

G

A, H

I, IA

, IL,

IN, K

S, M

A, M

E, M

I, M

N, M

T, N

C, N

H, N

V, O

H, P

A, R

I, SC

, TN

, VA

, VT,

WY

. Fro

m th

ese

stat

es th

e fo

llow

ing

are

drop

ped

due

to m

issin

g an

d ne

gativ

e dr

opou

t rat

es: A

L, A

Z, I

A, M

E, M

N, M

T, N

H, S

C, T

N, V

T, W

Y. N

o tre

atm

ent s

tate

s are

dro

pped

from

any

of t

he re

gres

sions

. Sta

tes t

hat c

hang

ed th

e m

inim

um a

ge re

quire

d to

dro

p ou

t inc

lude

: DC

(from

orig

inal

cont

rol g

roup

), M

S an

d N

M (b

oth

from

trea

tmen

t gro

up).

Stat

es th

at c

hang

ed e

ither

scho

ol le

avin

g or

G

ED

age

requ

irem

ents

inclu

de:

AR,

DC,

KY

, MO

, OK

, OR,

SD

, UT,

WI (

from

orig

inal

cont

rol g

roup

) and

MS,

NE

and

NM

(fro

m tr

eatm

ent g

roup

).

Note

:T

he

full

regre

ssio

nsp

ecifi

cati

on

sare

pre

sente

din

the

Web

Ap

pen

dix

.U

nle

ssoth

erw

ise

state

dth

em

od

elis

esti

mate

du

sin

gO

LS

.S

tate

15-1

7yea

rold

pop

ula

tion

s(b

y

race

for

rele

vant

regre

ssio

ns)

are

use

das

wei

ghts

.T

he

esti

mate

rep

ort

edab

ove

isth

ein

tera

ctio

nb

etw

een

the

trea

tmen

tst

ate

du

mm

yan

dth

ep

ost

per

iod

du

mm

y,w

her

eth

e

trea

tmen

tst

ate

du

mm

yis

equ

al

to1

for

trea

tmen

tst

ate

san

dth

ep

ost

per

iod

du

mm

yis

equ

al

to1

for

the

yea

rs1998-2

000,

oth

erw

ise

both

du

mm

ies

are

equ

al

to0.

Sta

tes

wit

h

few

erth

an

two

ob

serv

ati

on

sp

erp

erio

dare

dro

pp

edfo

r“all

race

s”re

gre

ssio

ns.

Sta

tes

wit

hfe

wer

than

two

ob

serv

ati

on

sp

erp

erio

dfo

rany

of

the

dro

pou

tra

tem

easu

res

by

race

are

dro

pp

edfo

rby

race

regre

ssio

ns.

Tre

atm

ent

state

sare

those

state

sth

at

wer

ere

qu

ired

toel

imin

ate

the

an

d/or

score

op

tion

.T

hes

ein

clu

de:

LA

,M

S,

NE

,N

M,

TX

.U

nle

ss

oth

erw

ise

state

dco

ntr

ol

state

sare

those

that

wer

en

ot

requ

ired

tora

ise

thei

rG

ED

min

imu

msc

ore

requ

irem

ent.

Th

ese

incl

ud

e:A

R,

CA

,C

O,

DE

,D

C,

FL

,ID

,K

Y,

MD

,M

O,

NJ,

NY

,N

D,

OK

,O

R,

SD

,U

T,

WA

,W

V,

WI.

Fro

mth

ese

state

sth

efo

llow

ing

had

tob

ed

rop

ped

from

the

”by

race

”re

gre

ssio

ns

du

eto

mis

sin

gan

dn

egati

ve

dro

pou

tra

tes:

AR

,ID

,K

Y,

MO

,N

D,

NJ,

NY

,S

D,

UT

,W

A,

WV

.T

he

state

of

NJ

isals

od

rop

ped

from

the

”all

race

s”re

gre

ssio

ns.

Sco

rech

an

ger

state

sare

those

state

sth

at

wer

ere

qu

ired

to

rais

eth

eir

min

imu

msc

ore

requ

irem

ent

from

35

to40

in1997.

Thes

ein

clu

de:

AK

,A

L,

AZ

,C

T,

GA

,H

I,IA

,IL

,IN

,K

S,

MA

,M

E,

MI,

MN

,M

T,

NC

,N

H,

NV

,O

H,

PA

,R

I,S

C,

TN

,V

A,

VT

,W

Y.

Fro

mth

ese

state

sth

efo

llow

ing

are

dro

pp

edd

ue

tom

issi

ng

an

dn

egati

ve

dro

pou

tra

tes:

AL

,A

Z,

IA,

ME

,M

N,

MT

,N

H,

SC

,T

N,

VT

,W

Y.

No

trea

tmen

t

state

sare

dro

pp

edfr

om

any

of

the

regre

ssio

ns.

Sta

tes

that

chan

ged

the

min

imu

mage

requ

ired

tod

rop

ou

tin

clu

de:

DC

(fro

mori

gin

al

contr

ol

gro

up

),M

San

dN

M(b

oth

from

trea

tmen

tgro

up

).S

tate

sth

at

chan

ged

eith

ersc

hool

leavin

gor

GE

Dage

requ

irem

ents

incl

ud

e:A

R,

DC

,K

Y,

MO

,O

K,

OR

,S

D,

UT

,W

I(f

rom

ori

gin

al

contr

ol

gro

up

)an

dM

S,

NE

an

dN

M(f

rom

trea

tmen

tgro

up

).

19

in the text for nearly all groups. The one exception is that the white upper level dropout

estimate is now very small and statistically insignificant.

D.3 Excluding States that Changed Minimum Age Requirements

A number of states in both our treatment and control groups either raised or lowered the

minimum age for GED testing or the minimum age for school leaving during the period

under study. Our fixed effect model controls for these changes. Alternatively, we estimate

the model excluding these states to be sure that these changes are not driving our results.

In row 3 of Table D-1, we drop all states that changed the minimum school leaving age and

find that our estimates are robust to this alternate specification.

D.4 Excluding Additional Years from the Analysis

The change in test difficulty was implemented at the beginning of 1997, in the middle of the

1996-1997 school year. All regressions exclude 1996-1997 dropout rates as these would be the

number enrolled in 1996 who were not still enrolled or graduated in 1997. If the change was

well publicized, it may have lead to a rush of test takers trying to pass before the increase

in test difficulty. As a robustness check we exclude 1996 through 1998 from our regressions.

As shown in Figure D-2, excluding these years has little effect on the estimates. Similarly,

the 12th grade dropout rate is notably higher in 1994 than the other years. As shown in

Figure D-2, excluding 1994 has little effect on the estimates.

20

Tab

leD

-2:

Alt

ernat

ive

Yea

rSp

ecifi

cati

onfo

rC

han

gein

Tes

tD

ifficu

lty

Dep

end

ent

Var

iab

leA

ll R

aces

Wh

ites

Bla

cks

His

pan

ics

All

Rac

esW

hit

esB

lack

sH

isp

anic

sA

ll R

aces

Wh

ites

Bla

cks

His

pan

ics

-1.2

9%-0

.43%

-1.2

9%-2

.74%

-1.4

2%-0

.43%

-1.6

0%-3

.20%

-1.1

7%-0

.33%

-1.4

9%-2

.39%

(.37)

(.15)

(.98)

(.40)

(.50)

(.30)

(1.0

6)(.6

7)(.2

6)(.1

2)(.8

4)(.4

2)-0

.55%

0.00

%0.

09%

-1.3

8%-0

.57%

0.12

%-0

.02%

-1.8

1%-0

.64%

-0.1

1%-0

.62%

-0.9

9%(.5

4)(.4

5)(1

.61)

(.50)

(.65)

(.54)

(1.8

6)(.8

2)(.4

3)(.4

1)(1

.23)

(.58)

-2.9

5%-1

.32%

-4.8

4%-6

.16%

-3.3

0%-1

.58%

-5.7

0%-6

.67%

-2.3

9%-0

.72%

-3.6

3%-5

.95%

(.65)

(.88)

(1.8

2)(.4

6)(.8

3)(1

.14)

(2.3

5)(.8

3)(.6

5)(.9

4)(1

.63)

(.91)

-0.5

7%…

……

-0.5

5%-0

.53%

(.18)

……

…(.1

9)(.1

7)-0

.36%

……

…-0

.32%

-0.3

7%(.1

7)…

……

(.21)

(.18)

-0.7

7%…

……

-0.7

6%-0

.68%

(.25)

……

…(.2

7)(.2

2)

10th

-12t

h G

rade

D

ropo

ut R

ate

GE

D T

estin

g Ra

te

Age

s 18-

19

The

year

199

7 is

exclu

ded

from

all

regr

essio

ns a

s was

don

e in

the

orig

inal

pape

r.

Exc

lud

ing

1994

Not

e: H

uber

-Whi

te ro

bust

stan

dard

err

ors a

re in

par

enth

eses

(clu

ster

ed b

y st

ate)

. Mod

el is

estim

ated

usin

g O

LS. S

tate

15-

17 y

ear o

ld p

opul

atio

ns b

y ra

ce a

re u

sed

as w

eight

s. Th

e es

timat

e re

porte

d ab

ove

is th

e in

tera

ctio

n be

twee

n th

e tre

atm

ent s

tate

dum

my

and

the

post

199

7 du

mm

y, w

here

the

treat

men

t sta

te d

umm

y is

equa

l to

1 fo

r tre

atm

ent s

tate

s and

th

e po

st 1

997

dum

my

is eq

ual t

o 1

for t

he y

ears

199

8-20

00, o

ther

wise

bot

h du

mm

ies a

re e

qual

to 0

. Sta

tes w

ith fe

wer

than

two

obse

rvat

ions

per

per

iod

are

drop

ped

for '

all ra

ces'

regr

essio

ns. S

tate

s with

few

er th

an tw

o ob

serv

atio

ns p

er p

erio

d fo

r any

of t

he d

ropo

ut ra

te m

easu

res b

y ra

ce a

re d

ropp

ed fo

r by

race

regr

essio

ns. T

reat

men

t sta

tes a

re th

ose

stat

es

that

wer

e re

quire

d to

elim

inat

e th

e an

d/or

scor

e op

tion.

The

se in

clude

: LA

, MS,

NE

, NM

, TX

. Con

trol s

tate

s are

thos

e th

at a

lread

y ha

d hi

gh e

noug

h st

anda

rds b

y 19

97. T

hese

in

clude

: AR,

CA

, CO

, DE

, DC,

FL,

ID, K

Y, M

D, M

O, N

J, N

Y, N

D, O

K, O

R, S

D, U

T, W

A, W

V, W

I. Co

ntro

l sta

tes d

ropp

ed fr

om 'a

ll ra

ces'

regr

essio

ns d

ue to

miss

ing

and

nega

tive

drop

out r

ates

inclu

de: N

J. Co

ntro

l sta

tes d

ropp

ed fr

om re

gres

sion

by ra

ce d

ue to

miss

ing

and

nega

tive

drop

out r

ates

inclu

de: A

R, ID

, KY

, MO

, ND

, NJ,

NY

, SD

, UT,

W

A, W

V. N

o tre

atm

ent s

tate

s are

dro

pped

.

10th

-11t

h G

rade

D

ropo

ut R

ate

12th

Gra

de

Dro

pout

Rat

eG

ED

Tes

ting

Rate

A

ges 1

6-19

GE

D T

estin

g Ra

te

Age

s 16-

17

Incl

ud

ing

all Y

ears

Exc

lud

ing

1996

an

d 1

998

21

D.5 Extending the GED Testing and Dropout Rate Trends

When we extend the times series of GED testing and dropout rates on both sides of 1997, we

obtain results that support the analysis in the main text. Prior to the increase in standards,

the GED test-taking rate is higher in treatment states compared to control states. For

the higher grade levels, dropout rates are higher in control states compared to treatment

states prior to the introduction of the new standards but are lower afterwards. The effect is

particularly strong for the 12th grade dropout rate. The breaks in the trends around 1997

are evident for the student pools more eligible to take the GED.

22

Fig

ure

D-1

:G

ED

Tes

ting

and

Dro

pou

tR

ates

By

Yea

r,T

reat

men

tvs.

Con

trol

Sta

tes

(exte

nded

year

s)

23

E Fixed Effect Estimates of the Effect of Increasing

Passing Standards

One difficulty in isolating the effect of changes in GED passing standards on dropout rates

is that both minimum school leaving age requirements and GED testing age requirements

changed in the sample period under study (See Table E-1). During our sample period, three

of the five states in our treatment group both raised and lowered their GED minimum age

requirement. Two of these three states also raised the minimum age at which students can

drop out of school. States included in our control group also made changes in their age

requirements.

To control for these potentially confounding changes in age requirements and other

sources of variation across states, we estimate a state fixed-effect regression. The model

is

Yi,t = γ(Dtreat ·Dpost 97) + πDpost 97 + θi + ψXi,t + εi,t

where Yi,t is the dropout rate for state i in year t and Dtreat and Dpost 97 are defined as

Dtreat = {1 if the state eliminated the and/or GED score option in 19970 if the state was not required to raise GED standards in 1997

Dpost 97 = {1 if 1998 ≤ year ≤ 20000 otherwise .

The θi are time-invariant state level fixed effects and the Xi,t are control variables that

vary by states over time. These include dummy indicators for both the minimum age required

to take the GED and the minimum age required to drop out of school, as well as measures

of state level unemployment rates and per capita income to control for changes in labor

market conditions during the sample period.1 The parameter of interest is γ, which is the

conditional difference-in-difference estimate of the treatment effect of the reform in GED

1See Table E-3 for the summary statistics of all variables used in these models. We do not control for highstakes testing because no treatment or control states implemented or changed testing requirements duringthe sample period.

24

Tab

leE

-1:

Chan

ges

inG

ED

Tes

ting

and

Man

dat

ory

Sch

ool

ing

Age

Req

uir

emen

tsby

Tre

atm

ent

Sta

tus,

1994

-200

0

Pol

icy

Ch

ange

Tre

atm

ent

Gro

up

Con

trol

Gro

up

Raise

d M

inim

um G

ED

Age

Re

quire

men

tM

S (1

7 to

18,

199

7), N

E (1

6 to

18,

199

8),

NM

(16

to 1

7, 2

000)

.

AR

(16

to 1

8, 2

000)

, KY

(16

to 1

9 ,1

997

and

200

0),

MO

(16

to 1

8, 1

997)

, OK

(16

to 1

8, 1

997

and

2000

), O

R (1

6 to

18,

200

0), S

D (1

7 to

19,

199

7 an

d 16

to 1

8,

1999

), U

T (1

7 to

18,

199

7 an

d 20

00),

WI (

18 to

18.

5,

1999

).

Low

ered

Min

imum

GE

D A

ge

Requ

irem

ent

MS

(18

to 1

6, 2

000)

, NE

(17

to 1

6, 1

995)

, N

M (1

8 to

16,

199

9).

KY

(19

to 1

6, 1

999)

, MO

(18

to 1

6, 1

995)

, OK

(18

to

16, 1

995

and

1999

), O

R (1

8 to

16,

199

9), S

D (1

8 to

17

, 199

5 an

d 19

to 1

6, 1

998)

, UT

(18

to 1

7, 1

995

and

1999

), W

I (18

.5 to

18,

199

5).

Raise

d M

inim

um S

choo

l Le

avin

g A

ge R

equi

rem

ent

MS

(16

to 1

7, 1

997)

, NM

(16

to 1

8, 1

997)

.D

C (1

7 to

18,

199

7).

Low

ered

Min

imum

Lea

ving

A

ge R

equi

rem

ent

Non

e.N

one.

Not

e: Th

e ye

ar o

f cha

nge

as w

ell a

s the

initi

al an

d fin

al va

lue

for t

he a

ge re

quirm

ent a

re re

porte

d in

par

enth

eses

.

Sour

ce: G

ED

Tes

ting

Serv

ice A

nnua

l Rep

orts

: "W

ho T

ook

the

GE

D?"

(var

ious

yea

rs) a

nd D

iges

t of E

duca

tion

Stat

istics

(var

ious

ye

ars)

.

25

standards on the high school dropout rate.

Weighted OLS estimates of γ from the full model both controlling and not controlling for

changes in minimum age requirements are summarized in Table E-2.2 The other parameter

estimates are available in Table G-27. Using the full specification, the overall effect of

the reform is a 1.3 percentage point reduction in the dropout rate in treatment states.

The estimated effect on the upper level dropout rate remains close to 3 percentage points

and is statistically significant. The estimated effect on the overall lower level dropout rate

remains small and statistically insignificant. In general, the estimates including state level

fixed effects but not controlling for changes in minimum age requirements are smaller than

estimates based on the full specification. The regression-adjusted dropout and GED testing

rate estimates are for the most part smaller but in close agreement with the unadjusted

estimates reported in the text.

The fixed effects estimates by race are consistent with the unadjusted estimates as well.

Again, the estimated treatment effect is greater for minorities compared to whites. As is true

of the estimates reported in the text, the largest effect is on the upper level dropout rate.

Increasing GED passing requirements decreased the upper level dropout rate in treatment

states by 1.3 percentage points for whites, 4.8 percentage points for blacks and 6.2 percentage

points for Hispanics.

2GLS estimates of the model are also available in the Web Appendix and match those reported in thetext. The results also hold with serially correlated errors.

26

Tab

leE

-2:

Wei

ghte

dO

LS

Fix

edE

ffec

tsE

stim

ates

ofth

eIm

pac

tof

the

1997

GE

DR

efor

mon

Var

ious

Dro

pou

tR

ate

Mea

sure

s

Dep

en

den

t V

ari

ab

leA

ll R

aces

Wh

ites

Bla

ck

sH

isp

an

ics

All

Races

Wh

ites

Bla

ck

sH

isp

an

ics

Tre

atm

ent

Eff

ect

-1.2

1%

-0.4

7%

-0.8

3%

-2.6

8%

-1.2

9%

-0.4

3%

-1.2

9%

-2.7

4%

95%

CI

Hub

er-W

hit

e Sta

nd

ard

Err

ors

(-1.9

4%

, -0

.48%

)(-

0.8

0%

, -0

.13%

)(-

2.8

6%

, 1.1

2%

)(-

3.6

1%

, -1

.75%

)(-

2.0

6%

, -0

.53%

)(-

0.7

6%

, -0

.11%

)(-

3.4

0%

, 0.8

3%

)(-

3.6

0%

, -1

.89%

)

95%

CI

Co

nle

y-T

aber

Sta

nd

ard

Err

ors

(-2.0

6%

, 0.2

5%

)(-

0.7

5%

, 1.7

4%

)(-

2.0

2%

, 4.7

7%

)(-

10.7

7%

, 1.1

0%

)(-

2.1

4%

, -0

.37%

)(-

0.7

5%

, 0.8

4%

)(-

2.8

0%

, 1.5

5%

)(-

5.6

9%

, -1

.09%

)

90%

CI

Co

nle

y-T

aber

Sta

nd

ard

Err

ors

(-1.9

1%

, -0

.01%

)(-

0.6

8%

, 1.3

6%

)(-

1.6

1%

, 3.6

9%

)(-

9.4

2%

, 0.4

3%

)(-

1.9

9%

, -0

.51%

)(-

0.6

8%

, 0.6

4%

)(-

2.5

4%

, 1.0

6%

)(-

5.2

1%

, -1

.46%

)

Tre

atm

ent

Eff

ect

-0.4

6%

-0.0

2%

0.3

7%

-1.3

8%

-0.5

5%

0.0

0%

0.0

9%

-1.3

8%

95%

CI

Hub

er-W

hit

e Sta

nd

ard

Err

ors

(-1.5

3%

, 0.6

0%

)(-

0.9

6%

, 0.9

1%

)(-

2.8

3%

, 3.5

7%

)(-

2.6

7%

, -0

.095%

)(-

1.6

7%

, 0.5

7%

)(-

0.9

7%

, 0.9

7%

)(-

3.3

8%

, 3.5

7%

)(-

2.4

6%

, -0

.31%

)

95%

CI

Co

nle

y-T

aber

Sta

nd

ard

Err

ors

(-1.5

4%

, 1.1

1%

)(-

0.7

6%

, 1.8

9%

)(-

2.0

8%

, 8.9

9%

)(-

11.3

3%

, 2.9

5%

)(-

1.6

1%

, 0.5

9%

)(-

0.7

6%

, 1.0

0%

)(-

2.3

7%

, 4.7

4%

)(-

6.0

7%

, 0.3

9%

)

90%

CI

Co

nle

y-T

aber

Sta

nd

ard

Err

ors

(-1.3

8%

, 0.8

5%

)(-

0.6

3%

, 1.5

1%

)(-

1.5

1%

, 7.3

4%

)(-

9.9

0%

, 2.2

0%

)(-

1.4

1%

, 0.3

9%

)(-

0.6

3%

, 0.8

1%

)(-

2.0

9%

, 3.8

4%

)(-

5.3

1%

, -0

.02%

)

Tre

atm

ent

Eff

ect

-2.8

6%

-1.3

8%

-4.0

2%

-5.9

9%

-2.9

5%

-1.3

2%

-4.8

4%

-6.1

6%

95%

CI

Hub

er-W

hit

e Sta

nd

ard

Err

ors

(-4.2

5%

, -1

.47%

)(-

3.1

4%

, 0.3

8%

)(-

7.8

3%

, -0

.21%

)(-

6.6

4%

, -5

.34%

)(-

4.3

0%

, -1

.60%

)(-

3.2

3%

, 0.5

9%

)(-

8.7

6%

, -0

.91%

)(-

7.5

2%

, -5

.16%

)

95%

CI

Co

nle

y-T

aber

Sta

nd

ard

Err

ors

(-5.1

9%

, -1

.04%

)(-

2.8

2%

, 0.8

4%

)(-

7.9

1%

, 2.4

7%

)(-

7.9

0%

, 0.0

0%

)(-

5.1

8%

, -1

.14%

)(-

2.8

5%

, 0.4

5%

)(-

9.0

1%

, 0.2

9%

)(-

7.5

6%

, 0.3

4%

)

90%

CI

Co

nle

y-T

aber

Sta

nd

ard

Err

ors

(-4.8

0%

, -1

.31%

)(-

2.5

4%

, 0.4

8%

)(-

7.0

0%

, 1.5

6%

)(-

7.3

9%

, -0

.98%

)(-

4.8

6%

, -1

.40%

)(-

2.5

4%

, 0.2

1%

)(-

8.1

9%

, -0

.50%

)(-

7.1

1%

, -0

.52%

)

Tre

atm

ent

Eff

ect

-0.5

5%

……

…-0

.57%

……

…

95%

CI

Hub

er-W

hit

e Sta

nd

ard

Err

ors

(-0.8

7%

, -0

.23%

)(-

0.9

4%

, -0

.21%

)

95%

CI

Co

nle

y-T

aber

Sta

nd

ard

Err

ors

(-1.0

0%

, -

0.3

8%

)…

……

(-1.0

2%

, -0

.41%

)…

……

90%

CI

Co

nle

y-T

aber

Sta

nd

ard

Err

ors

(-0.9

4%

, -

0.4

2%

)…

……

(-0.9

5%

, -0

.46%

)…

……

Tre

atm

ent

Eff

ect

-0.3

4%

……

…-0

.36%

……

…

95%

CI

Hub

er-W

hit

e Sta

nd

ard

Err

ors

(-0.6

6%

, -0

.02%

)(-

0.7

1%

, -0

.023%

)

95%

CI

Co

nle

y-T

aber

Sta

nd

ard

Err

ors

(-1.0

7%

, -

0.1

4%

)…

……

(-1.0

7%

, -

0.1

7%

)…

……

90%

CI

Co

nle

y-T

aber

Sta

nd

ard

Err

ors

(-1.0

0%

, -

0.2

0%

)…

……

(-0.9

8%

, -

0.2

4%

)…

……

Tre

atm

ent

Eff

ect

-0.7

6%

……

…-0

.77%

……

…

95%

CI

Hub

er-W

hit

e Sta

nd

ard

Err

ors

(-1.2

0%

, -0

.32%

)(-

1.2

8%

, -0

.26%

)

95%

CI

Co

nle

y-T

aber

Sta

nd

ard

Err

ors

(-1.1

3%

, -

0.4

2%

)…

……

(-1.1

7%

, -

0.4

7%

)…

……

90%

CI

Co

nle

y-T

aber

Sta

nd

ard

Err

ors

(-1.0

5%

, -

0.4

7%

)…

……

(-1.0

8%

, -

0.5

1%

)…

……

No

te: C

on

ley-

Tab

er a

dju

sted

co

nfi

den

ce in

terv

als

are

in p

aren

thes

es. T

he

full r

egre

ssio

n s

pec

ific

atio

ns

are

pre

sen

ted

in

th

e w

eb a

pp

end

ix. U

nle

ss o

ther

wis

e st

ated

th

e m

od

el is

esti

mat

ed u

sin

g O

LS. Sta

te 1

5-1

7 y

ear

old

po

pula

tio

ns

(by

race

fo

r re

levan

t re

gres

sio

ns)

are

use

d a

s w

eigh

ts. T

he

esti

mat

e re

po

rted

ab

ove

is t

he

inte

ract

ion

bet

wee

n t

he

trea

tmen

t st

ate

dum

my

and

th

e p

ost

per

iod

dum

my,

wh

ere

the

trea

tmen

t st

ate

dum

my

is e

qual

to

1 f

or

trea

tmen

t st

ates

an

d t

he

po

st p

erio

d d

um

my

is e

qual

to

1 f

or

the

year

s 1998-2

000, o

ther

wis

e b

oth

dum

mie

s ar

e eq

ual

to

0. Sta

tes

wit

h f

ewer

th

an t

wo

ob

serv

atio

ns

per

per

iod

are

dro

pp

ed f

or

"all

race

s" r

egre

ssio

ns.

Sta

tes

wit

h f

ewer

th

an t

wo

ob

serv

atio

ns

per

per

iod

fo

r an

y o

f th

e d

rop

out

rate

mea

sure

s b

y ra

ce a

re d

rop

ped

fo

r b

y ra

ce r

egre

ssio

ns.

Tre

atm

ent

stat

es a

re t

ho

se s

tate

s th

at w

ere

requir

ed t

o e

lim

inat

e

the

and

/o

r sc

ore

op

tio

n. T

hes

e in

clud

e: L

A, M

S, N

E, N

M, T

X. U

nle

ss o

ther

wis

e st

ated

co

ntr

ol st

ates

are

th

ose

th

at w

ere

no

t re

quir

ed t

o r

aise

th

eir

GE

D m

inim

um

sco

re r

equir

emen

t. T

hes

e in

clud

e: A

R, C

A, C

O,

DE

, D

C, F

L, ID

, K

Y, M

D, M

O, N

J, N

Y, N

D, O

K, O

R, SD

, U

T, W

A, W

V, W

I. F

rom

th

ese

stat

es t

he

follo

win

g h

ad t

o b

e d

rop

ped

fro

m t

he

"by

race

" re

gres

sio

ns

due

to m

issi

ng

and

neg

ativ

e d

rop

out

rate

s: A

R, ID

,

KY

, M

O, N

D, N

J, N

Y, SD

, U

T, W

A, W

V. T

he

stat

e o

f N

J is

als

o d

rop

ped

fro

m t

he

"all r

aces

" re

gres

sio

ns.

Sco

re c

han

ger

stat

es a

re t

ho

se s

tate

s th

at w

ere

requir

ed t

o r

aise

th

eir

min

imum

sco

re r

equir

emen

t fr

om

35

to 4

0 in

1997. T

hes

e in

clud

e: A

K, A

L, A

Z, C

T, G

A, H

I, I

A, IL

, IN

, K

S, M

A, M

E, M

I, M

N, M

T, N

C, N

H, N

V, O

H, P

A, R

I, S

C, T

N, V

A, V

T, W

Y. F

rom

th

ese

stat

es t

he

follo

win

g ar

e d

rop

ped

due

to m

issi

ng

and

neg

ativ

e d

rop

out

rate

s: A

L, A

Z, IA

, M

E, M

N, M

T, N

H, SC

, T

N, V

T, W

Y. N

o t

reat

men

t st

ates

are

dro

pp

ed f

rom

an

y o

f th

e re

gres

sio

ns.

Sta

tes

that

ch

ange

d t

he

min

imum

age

req

uir

ed t

o d

rop

out

incl

ud

e: D

C (

fro

m

ori

gin

al c

on

tro

l gr

oup

), M

S a

nd

NM

(b

oth

fro

m t

reat

men

t gr

oup

). S

tate

s th

at c

han

ged

eit

her

sch

oo

l le

avin

g o

r G

ED

age

req

uir

emen

ts in

clud

e:

AR

, D

C, K

Y, M

O, O

K, O

R, SD

, U

T, W

I (f

rom

ori

gin

al c

on

tro

l gr

oup

)

and

MS, N

E a

nd

NM

(fr

om

tre

atm

ent

gro

up

).

Tab

le 5

. W

eigh

ted

OL

S F

ixed

Eff

ects

Est

imat

es o

f th

e Im

pac

t o

f th

e 1997 G

ED

Ref

orm

on

Var

ious

Dro

po

ut

Rat

e M

easu

res

No

t C

on

tro

llin

g f

or

Min

imu

m A

ge R

eq

uir

em

en

tsC

on

tro

llin

g f

or

Min

imu

m A

ge R

eq

uir

em

en

ts

10th

-12th

Gra

de

Dro

po

ut

Rat

e

10th

-11th

Gra

de

Dro

po

ut

Rat

e

12th

Gra

de

Dro

po

ut

Rat

e

GE

D T

esti

ng

Rat

e

Age

s 16-1

9

GE

D T

esti

ng

Rat

e

Age

s 16-1

7

GE

D T

esti

ng

Rat

e

Age

s 18-1

9

Note

:C

on

ley-T

ab

erad

just

edco

nfi

den

cein

terv

als

are

inp

are

nth

eses

.T

he

full

regre

ssio

nsp

ecifi

cati

on

sare

pre

sente

din

the

Web

Ap

pen

dix

.U

nle

ssoth

erw

ise

state

dth

em

od

el

ises

tim

ate

du

sin

gO

LS

.S

tate

15-1

7yea

rold

pop

ula

tion

s(b

yra

cefo

rre

levant

regre

ssio

ns)

are

use

das

wei

ghts

.T

he

esti

mate

rep

ort

edab

ove

isth

ein

tera

ctio

nb

etw

een

the

trea

tmen

tst

ate

du

mm

yan

dth

ep

ost

per

iod

du

mm

y,w

her

eth

etr

eatm

ent

state

du

mm

yis

equ

al

to1

for

trea

tmen

tst

ate

san

dth

ep

ost

per

iod

du

mm

yis

equ

al

to1

for

the

yea

rs1998-2

000,

oth

erw

ise

both

du

mm

ies

are

equ

al

to0.

Sta

tes

wit

hfe

wer

than

two

ob

serv

ati

on

sp

erp

erio

dare

dro

pp

edfo

r“all

race

s”re

gre

ssio

ns.

Sta

tes

wit

hfe

wer

than

two

ob

serv

ati

on

sp

erp

erio

dfo

rany

of

the

dro

pou

tra

tem

easu

res

by

race

are

dro

pp

edfo

rby

race

regre

ssio

ns.

Tre

atm

ent

state

sare

those

state

sth

at

wer

ere

qu

ired

toel

imin

ate

the

an

d/or

score

op

tion

.T

hes

ein

clu

de:

LA

,M

S,

NE

,N

M,

TX

.U

nle

ssoth

erw

ise

state

dco

ntr

ol

state

sare

those

that

wer

en

ot

requ

ired

tora

ise

thei

rG

ED

min

imu

msc

ore

requ

irem

ent.

Th

ese

incl

ud

e:A

R,

CA

,C

O,

DE

,D

C,

FL

,ID

,K

Y,

MD

,M

O,

NJ,

NY

,N

D,

OK

,O

R,

SD

,U

T,

WA

,W

V,

WI.

Fro

mth

ese

state

sth

efo

llow

ing

had

tob

ed

ropp

ed

from

the

”by

race

”re

gre

ssio

ns

du

eto

mis

sin

gan

dn

egati

ve

dro

pou

tra

tes:

AR

,ID

,K

Y,

MO

,N

D,

NJ,

NY

,S

D,

UT

,W

A,

WV

.T

he

state

of

NJ

isals

od

rop

ped

from

the

”all

race

s”re

gre

ssio

ns.

Sco

rech

an

ger

state

sare

those

state

sth

at

wer

ere

qu

ired

tora

ise

thei

rm

inim

um

score

requ

irem

ent

from

35

to40

in1997.

Thes

ein

clu

de:

AK

,A

L,

AZ

,C

T,

GA

,H

I,IA

,IL

,IN

,K

S,

MA

,M

E,

MI,

MN

,M

T,

NC

,N

H,

NV

,O

H,

PA

,R

I,S

C,

TN

,V

A,

VT

,W

Y.

Fro

mth

ese

state

sth

efo

llow

ing

are

dro

pp

edd

ue

tom

issi

ng

an

dn

egati

ve

dro

pou

tra

tes:

AL

,A

Z,

IA,

ME

,M

N,

MT

,N

H,

SC

,T

N,

VT

,W

Y.

No

trea

tmen

tst

ate

sare

dro

pp

edfr

om

any

of

the

regre

ssio

ns.

Sta

tes

that

chan

ged

the

min

imu

mage

requ

ired

tod

rop

ou

tin

clu

de:

DC

(fro

mori

gin

al

contr

ol

gro

up

),M

San

dN

M(b

oth

from

trea

tmen

tgro

up

).S

tate

sth

at

chan

ged

eith

ersc

hool

leavin

gor

GE

Dage

requ

irem

ents

incl

ud

e:

AR

,D

C,

KY

,M

O,

OK

,O

R,

SD

,U

T,

WI

(fro

mori

gin

al

contr

ol

gro

up

)an

dM

S,

NE

an

dN

M(f

rom

trea

tmen

tgro

up

).

27

Table E-3: Summary Statistics of Variables Used in the Analysis

Mean N Mean N Mean N Mean N

10th-12th Grade Dropout Rate

Overall .105 .090 .100 .098

(.019) (.021) (.033) (.032)

Whites .079 .070 .086 .082

(.019) (.019) (.029) (.030)

Blacks .140 .124 .158 .152

(.012) (.018) (.041) (.044)

Hispanics .142 .109 .158 .143

(.020) (.019) (.018) (.014)

10th-11th Grade Dropout Rate

Overall .112 .105 .105 .102

(.022) (.023) (.041) (.043)

Whites .089 .085 .086 .082

(.024) (.023) (.037) (.042)

Blacks .140 .134 .170 .160

(.019) (.015) (.042) (.051)

Hispanics .152 .133 .165 .143

(.025) (.020) (.025) (.021)

12th Grade Dropout Rate

Overall .088 .052 .095 .088

(.016) (.025) (.034) (.035)

Whites .057 .036 .086 .079

(.016) (.018) (.034) (.032)

Blacks .139 .099 .124 .129

(.019) (.035) (.058) (.039)

Hipsanics .114 .049 .138 .143

(.019) (.024) (.033) (.036)

GED Testing Rate

Ages 16-19 0.031 0.027 0.020 0.021

(.007) (.005) (.007) (.008)

Ages 16-17 0.026 0.025 0.014 0.015

(.006) (.005) (.009) (.009)

Ages 18-19 .036 .029 .026 .027

(.009) (.007) (.007) (.009)

Time Varying Covariates

Minimum dropout age 16.78 17.00 16.92 16.92

(.425) (.347) (.991) (.993)

Minimum GED testing age 17.65 17.73 17.71 17.88

(.569) (.564) (1.031) (.937)

Log per capita income 9.91 10.12 10.07 10.27

(.087) (.114) (.133) (.143)

Local unemployment rate .062 .047 .062 .046

(.010) (.007) (.014) (.009)

15

57

57

57

57

57

57

57

57

57

14

14

15

15

15

15

15

15

14

15

15

57

57

15

15 57

57

15 26 26

14 15 27 26

57

26

14 15 27 27

15 15 56 56

15 15 26

26

15 15 27 27

15 15

15 15

27

57

27

27

27

57 57

15

15

27

27

27

Note: Standard deviations in parentheses. The dropout rate is defined as the ratio of students enrolled in a given

grade(s) in year t and the number of students enrolled in the previous grade(s) in year t-1, where t = 1994-2000.

Enrollment data by grade are from the Common Core of Data (CCD). Minimum age required to drop out of school are

from the Digest of Education Statistics (several years). Minimum age required to take the GED are from the yearly

reports published by the GED Testing Service: "Who Took the GED?" (several years). Local unemployment rates are

computed using monthly data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Log of per capita income are computed using data

from the Census Bureau. All calculations are weighted by the 15-17 year old population in each state.

Table A-1. Summary Statistics of Variables Used in the Anlaysis

Treatment Group States Control Group States

Pre-1997

(N=15)

Post-1997

(N=15)

Pre-1997

(N=57)

Post-1997

(N=57)

57

15

15

15

15

15

15

15

Note: Standard deviations in parentheses. The dropout rate is defined as the ratio of students enrolled in a given grade(s) in

year t and the number of students enrolled in the previous grade(s) in year t−1, where t= 1994-2000. Enrollment data by grade

are from the Common Core of Data (CCD). Minimum age required to drop out of school are from the Digest of Education

Statistics (several years). Minimum age required to take the GED are from the yearly reports published by the GED Testing

Service: ”Who Took the GED?” (several years). Local unemployment rates are computed using monthly data from the Bureau

of Labor Statistics. Log of per capita income are computed using data from the Census Bureau. All calculations are weighted

by the 15-17 year old population in each state. 28

F Supplementary Material for the Analysis of the GED

Option Program

29

Fig

ure

F-1

:M

edia

nD

ays

ofE

nro

llm

ent

inG

ED

Opti

on,

by

Sta

te:

2008

–09

Sch

ool

Yea

r

75

68

101

87

New

Ham

pshire (N

=0)

Oregon (N=2,276)

Tenn

essee (N=375)

Texas (N=773)

Virginia (N

=3,044)

Wisconsin (N

=o)

r of GED Option Candidates)

Med

ian Days of Enrollm

ent in GED

Option, by State: 2008‐09

Schoo

l Year

Med

ian Num

ber o

f Days

of Enrollm

ent o

f GED

Option Cand

idates: 105

NA NA

168

72

217

99

94

050

100

150

200

250

Florida (N=3,755)

Kentucky (N

=70)

Louisiana (N=1,186)

Mississippi (N

=1,018)

Missouri (N=2,117)

Med

ian Num

ber o

f Days

State (Numbe

Sour

ce:

GE

DO

ptio

nSt

atis

tica

lR

epor

t(2

009)

.

30

Fig

ure

F-2

:M

edia

nP

repar

atio

nH

ours

ofG

ED

Opti

onC

andid

ates

,by

Sta

te:

2008

–09

Sch

ool

Yea

r

Med

ian Prep

aration Hou

rs of G

ED Option Ca

ndidates, by State: 2008‐09

Scho

ol Year

60

50

Virginia (N

=2,663

)

Wisconsin (N

=2,565

)Med

ian Num

ber of

Prep

arationHou

rs of G

ED

Option Cand

idates: 80

50

60

Tenn

essee (N=426

)

Texas (N=495

)

Candidates)

45

20

New

Ham

pshire (N

=65)

Oregon (N=1,927

)

r of GED Option C

150

120

137

Louisiana(N

111

7)

Mississippi (N

=1,053

)

Missouri (N=2,150

)

State (Numbe

79

75

150

Florida(N=2

614)

Kentucky (N

=61)

Louisiana (N=1,117

)

79

020

4060

8010

012

014

016

0

Florida (N

2,61

4)

Med

ian Num

ber o

f Hou

rs

Sour

ce:

GE

DO

ptio

nSt

atis

tica

lR

epor

t(2

009)

.

31

Fig

ure

F-3

:N

inth

Gra

de

Coh

ort

Gra

duat

ion

Sta

tus

ofG

ED

Opti

onC

andid

ates

,by

Sta

te:

2008

–09

Sch

ool

Yea

r

Ninth Grade

Coh

ort G

radu

ation Status of G

ED Option Ca

ndidates, by

State: 2008‐09

Schoo

l Year

83.8%

84.2%

Wisconsin (N

=3,612

)

GED

Option Total

95.5%

78.1%

91.8%

Tenn

essee (N=443

)

Texas (N=517

)

Virginia (N

=3,187

)

Candidates)

82.7%

New

Ham

pshire (N

=NA)

Oregon (N=2,409

)

()

er of GED Option

NA

86.0%

88.6%

72.5%

Louisiana (N=1,258

)

Mississippi (N

=1,132

)

Missouri (N=2,425

)

State (Numbe

84.0%89

.6%

Florida (N=3,767

)

Kentucky (N

=67)

0%20

%40

%60

%80

%10

0%12

0%

Percen

t Did Not Gradu

ate Ye

t

Sour

ce:

GE

DO

ptio

nSt

atis

tica

lR

epor

t(2

009)

.

32

Tab

leF

-1:

Sta

tes

Issu

ing

Cre

den

tial

sIn

dis

tingu

ishab

lefr

omH

igh

Sch

ool

Dip

lom

as(2

008)

State

Credential Title

Arkansas

Arkansas High School D

iploma

Connecticut

Connecticut State High School D

iploma

Florida

State of Florida High School D

iploma

Haw

aii

High School D

iploma

Kansas

Kansas State High School D

iploma

Maryland

Maryland High School D

iploma

New

Jersey

New

Jersey State Issued

High School D

iploma

New

Mexico

New

Mexico High School D

iploma

Oklahoma

Oklahoma High School D

iploma

Pen

nsylvania

Commonwealth Secondary School D

iploma

Source: GED

Statistical Rep

ort 2008

Not

es:

Incl

udes

year

and

dist

rict

back

grou

ndch

arac

teri

stic

san

dco

vari

ates

.

33

Fig

ure

F-4

:T

he

Eff

ect

ofR

egula

rSch

ool

sO

pti

onP

rogr

amon

Hig

hSch

ool

Coh

ort

Com

ple

tion

Rat

es.

1.1%

1.0%

1.5%

2%3%4%eter Rates

0%1%2%

or Other Comple

-3%

-2%

-1%

hort Diploma o

‐3.0%

-5%

-4%

-3%

t Change in Coh

‐3.8%

‐3.6%

-7%

-6%

Dip

lom

a R

ate

(8th

)D

iplo

ma

Rat

e (9

th)

Dip

lom

a R

ate

(10t

h)

Percen

Dip

lom

as (O

ptio

n In

Nor

mal

Sch

ools

)O

ther

Com

plet

ers

(Opt

ion

In N

orm

al S

choo

ls)

Sou

rce:

Nati

on

al

Cen

ter

for

Ed

uca

tion

Sta

tist

ics,

Com

mon

Core

Data

an

dO

regon

Sch

ool

Dis

tric

tsA

dm

inis

trati

ve

Data

.N

ote

s:C

oh

ort

com

ple

tion

rate

sare

defi

ned

as

the

nu

mb

erof

dip

lom

as

issu

edd

ivid

edby

8th

,9th

,or

10th

gra

de

enro

llm

ent

lagged

the

ap

pro

pri

ate

nu

mb

erof

yea

rs.

We

show

coh

ort

com

ple

tion

rate

sfo

r8th

,9th

,an

d10th

gra

de

as

ach

eck

of

rob

ust

nes

s.T

he

defi

nit

ion

of

oth

erco

mp

lete

rsin

clu

des

stu

den

tsw

ho

GE

Dce

rtif

yth

rou

gh

ad

istr

ict

or

state

san

ctio

ned

cert

ifica

tion

pro

gra

m,

an

dth

us

shou

ldca

ptu

rest

ud

ents

wh

oG

ED

cert

ify

thro

ugh

the

GE

DO

pti

on

pro

gra

m.

Ore

gon

was

gra

nte

dp

erm

issi

on

tooff

erth

eG

ED

Op

tion

by

the

Am

eric

an

Cou

nci

lon

Ed

uca

tion

in2001,

bu

tn

osc

hools

imp

lem

ente

dp

rogra

ms

unti

lth

e2001-2

002

sch

ool

yea

r.R

egre

ssio

ns

incl

ud

eco

ntr

ols

for

per

cent

bla

cken

rollm

ent,

per

cent

His

pan

icen

rollm

ent,

per

cent

free

lun

chel

igib

le,

per

cent

free

or

red

uce

dlu

nch

elig

ible

,p

up

ilte

ach

erra

tio,

exp

end

itu

res

per

pu

pil,

reven

ue

per

pu

pil,

an

dd

istr

ict

an

dyea

rfi

xed

effec

ts.

Reg

ress

ion

sin

clu

de

2001-2

002

sch

ool

yea

rth

rou

gh

2007-2

008

sch

ool

yea

r.A

nalt

ern

ati

ve

Op

tion

pro

gra

mis

defi

ned

as

on

eth

at

was

not

pre

sent

intr

ad

itio

nal

hig

hsc

hools

,b

ut

on

lyin

com

mu

nit

y

colleg

esor

oth

erin

stit

uti

on

s.E

rror

bars

show

stan

dard

erro

rs.

34

Fig

ure

F-5

:D

escr

ipti

veC

ompar

ison

sof

Dis

tric

tsw

ith

and

wit

hou

tG

ED

Opti

onP

rogr

ams

(200

0,pri

orto

GE

DO

pti

on).

35%

40%

45%

20%

25%

30% 5%10%

15% 0%

Dis

trict

Opt

ion

No

Dis

trict

Opt

ion

Any

GE

D O

ptio

nN

o O

ptio

n

Sou

rce:

Nati

on

al

Cen

ter

for

Ed

uca

tion

Sta

tist

ics,

Com

mon

Core

Data

an

dO

regon

Sch

ool

Dis

tric

tsA

dm

inis

trati

ve

Data

.N

ote

s:A

llm

easu

res

are

from

yea

r2000,

pri

or

toth

e

availab

ilit

yof

the

GE

DO

pti

on

pro

gra

m.

35

Fig

ure

F-6

:D

escr

ipti

veC

ompar

ison

sof

Dis

tric

tsw

ith

and

wit

hou

tG

ED

Opti

onP

rogr

ams

(200

0,pri

orto

GE

DO

pti

on)

101520253035404550 05

Dip

lom

a R

ate

(9th

)To

tal E

nrol

lmen

tP

upil

Teac

her

Rat

ioR

even

ue P

er

Pup

ilE

xpen

ditu

res

Per

Pup

ilP

er C

apita

In

com

eM

edia

n Fa

mily

In

com

e

Dis

trict

Opt

ion

No

Dis

trict

Opt

ion

Any

GE

D O

ptio

nN

o O

ptio

n

Sou

rce:

Nati

on

alC

ente

rfo

rE

du

cati

on

Sta

tist

ics,

Com

mon

Core

Data

an

dO

regon

Sch

oolD

istr

icts

Ad

min

istr

ati

ve

Data

.N

ote

s:T

ota

len

rollm

ent,

reven

ue

per

pu

pil,ex

pen

dit

ure

s

per

pu

pil,

per

-cap

ita

inco

me,

an

dm

edia

nfa

mily

inco

me

are

inth

ou

san

ds

of

yea

r2000

dollars

.A

llm

easu

res

are

from

yea

r2000,

pri

or

toth

eavailab

ilit

yof

the

GE

DO

pti

on

pro

gra

m.

36

Tab

leF

-2:

The

Eff

ect

ofD

istr

ict-

Wid

eO

pti

onP

rogr

ams

onC

ohor

tD

iplo

ma

Rat

esin

Ore

gon

Dip

lom

aR

ate

(8th

)D

iplo

ma

Rat

e(9

th)

Dip

lom

aR

ate

(10t

h)

Per

c.B

lack

Enro

llm

ent

1.02

1-0

.598

0.33

1(1

.071

)(0

.909

)(0

.712

)

Per

c.H

ispan

icE

nro

llm

ent

-0.8

53∗

0.07

840.

210

(0.5

14)

(0.2

93)

(0.2

45)

Per

cF

ree

Lunch

-0.3

45-0

.077

1-0

.210

(0.7

09)

(0.3

21)

(0.2

77)

Per

cR

educe

dor

Fre

eL

unch

-0.2

03-0

.237

-0.1

55(0

.452

)(0

.216

)(0

.200

)

Pupil

Tea

cher

Rat

io-0

.000

216

-0.0

0013

7-0

.000

342

(0.0

0024

4)(0

.000

244)

(0.0

0029

9)

Exp

endit

ure

sP

erP

upil

-0.0

0605∗∗

-0.0

0329

0.00

0567

(0.0

0279

)(0

.002

32)

(0.0

0198

)

Rev

enue

Per

Pupil

-0.0

157

-0.0

0526

-0.0

0666

(0.0

123)

(0.0

108)

(0.0

110)

Dis

t.W

ide

Opti

on-0

.042

4∗∗

-0.0

297∗

-0.0

420∗∗∗

(0.0

211)

(0.0

154)

(0.0

151)

Con

stan

t1.

214∗∗∗

0.88

6∗∗∗

0.91

6∗∗∗

(0.1

81)

(0.1

29)

(0.1

23)

Obse

rvat

ions

1552

1552

1552

R2

0.54

20.

562

0.35

7A

dju

sted

R2

0.47

70.

500

0.26

6

Yea

ran

dD

istr

ict

Fix

edE

ffect

sN

otSh

own

End

ogen

ous

vari

able

isa

coho

rtgr

adua

tion

mea

sure

∗p

<0.

10,∗∗

p<

0.05

,∗∗∗

p<

0.01

37

Tab

leF

-3:

The

Eff

ect

ofD

istr

ict-

Wid

eO

pti

onP

rogr

ams

onC

ohor

tO

ther

-Com

ple

ter

Rat

esin

Ore

gon

Oth

er-C

omple

ter

Rat

e(8

th)

Oth

er-C

omple

ter

Rat

e(9

th)

Oth

er-C

omple

ter

Rat

e(1

0th)

Per

c.B

lack

Enro

llm

ent

0.67

40.

258

0.18

1(0

.833

)(1

.181

)(1

.087

)

Per

c.H

ispan

icE

nro

llm

ent

-0.1

38-0

.036

1-0

.133

(0.2

12)

(0.2

17)

(0.1

94)

Per

cF

ree

Lunch

-0.3

99-0

.285

-0.0

678

(0.5

03)

(0.4

85)

(0.2

97)

Per

cR

educe

dor

Fre

eL

unch

0.33

00.

262

0.06

59(0

.339

)(0

.327

)(0

.205

)

Pupil

Tea

cher

Rat

io0.

0040

7∗0.

0057

1∗∗

0.00

313

(0.0

0245

)(0

.002

85)

(0.0

0304

)

Exp

endit

ure

sP

erP

upil

-0.0

0020

30.

0001

990.

0020

3(0

.002

12)

(0.0

0219

)(0

.002

37)

Rev

enue

Per

Pupil

0.00

0921

0.00

506

0.00

380

(0.0

0788

)(0

.009

36)

(0.0

0924

)

Dis

t.W

ide

Opti

on0.

0173∗

0.01

74∗

0.01

74∗

(0.0

104)

(0.0

101)

(0.0

0954

)

Con

stan

t0.

0310

-0.0

744

0.01

21(0

.111

)(0

.103

)(0

.111

)

Obse

rvat

ions

1134

1134

1134

R2

0.35

20.

330

0.32

5A

dju

sted

R2

0.22

00.

195

0.18

8

Yea

ran

dD

istr

ict

Fix

edE

ffect

sN

otSh

own

End

ogen

ous

vari

able

isa

coho

rtgr

adua

tion

mea

sure

∗p

<0.

10,∗∗

p<

0.05

,∗∗∗

p<

0.01

38

Tab

leF

-4:

The

Eff

ect

ofO

pti

onP

rogr

ams

only

inA

lter

nat

ive

Sch

ool

son

Coh

ort

Dip

lom

aR

ates

inO

rego

n

Dip

lom

aR

ate

(8th

)D

iplo

ma

Rat

e(9

th)

Dip

lom

aR

ate

(10t

h)

Per

c.B

lack

Enro

llm

ent

0.98

5-0

.619

0.28

8(1

.068

)(0

.912

)(0

.709

)

Per

c.H

ispan

icE

nro

llm

ent

-0.8

330.

0883

0.24

0(0

.512

)(0

.291

)(0

.243

)

Per

cF

ree

Lunch

-0.3

58-0

.087

0-0

.223

(0.7

10)

(0.3

22)

(0.2

78)

Per

cR

educe

dor

Fre

eL

unch

-0.1

93-0

.231

-0.1

45(0

.452

)(0

.216

)(0

.200

)

Pupil

Tea

cher

Rat

io-0

.000

240

-0.0

0015

2-0

.000

368

(0.0

0024

4)(0

.000

247)

(0.0

0030

5)

Exp

endit

ure

sP

erP

upil

-0.0

0600∗∗

-0.0

0327

0.00

0651

(0.0

0280

)(0

.002

33)

(0.0

0199

)

Rev

enue

Per

Pupil

-0.0

153

-0.0

0497

-0.0

0626

(0.0

122)

(0.0

108)

(0.0

110)

Opti

onP

rogr

amon

lyin

Alt

.In

stit

uti

ons

0.02

490.

0269

0.00

393

(0.0

222)

(0.0

191)

(0.0

205)

Con

stan

t1.

219∗∗∗

0.89

0∗∗∗

0.92

0∗∗∗

(0.1

82)

(0.1

30)

(0.1

24)

Obse

rvat

ions

1552

1552

1552

R2

0.54

20.

562

0.35

6A

dju

sted

R2

0.47

70.

499

0.26

5

Yea

ran

dD

istr

ict

Fix

edE

ffect

sN

otSh

own

End

ogen

ous

vari

able

isa

coho

rtgr

adua

tion

mea

sure

∗p

<0.

10,∗∗

p<

0.05

,∗∗∗

p<

0.01

39

Tab

leF

-5:

The

Eff

ect

ofO

pti

onP

rogr

ams

only

inA

lter

nat

ive

Sch

ool

son

Coh

ort

Oth

er-C

omple

ter

Rat

esin

Ore

gon

Oth

er-C

omple

ter

Rat

e(8

th)

Oth

er-C

omple

ter

Rat

e(9

th)

Oth

er-C

omple

ter

Rat

e(1

0th)

Per

c.B

lack

Enro

llm

ent

0.70

70.

289

0.21

0(0

.832

)(1

.179

)(1

.085

)

Per

c.H

ispan

icE

nro

llm

ent

-0.1

67-0

.062

7-0

.157

(0.2

06)

(0.2

11)

(0.1

90)

Per

cF

ree

Lunch

-0.3

92-0

.278

-0.0

607

(0.5

04)

(0.4

86)

(0.2

97)

Per

cR

educe

dor

Fre

eL

unch

0.32

60.

259

0.06

19(0

.340

)(0

.327

)(0

.205

)

Pupil

Tea

cher

Rat

io0.

0041

4∗0.

0057

8∗∗

0.00

320

(0.0

0245

)(0

.002

84)

(0.0

0303

)

Exp

endit

ure

sP

erP

upil

-0.0

0028

00.

0001

410.

0019

9(0

.002

14)

(0.0

0220

)(0

.002

38)

Rev

enue

Per

Pupil

0.00

0701

0.00

483

0.00

355

(0.0

0787

)(0

.009

34)

(0.0

0923

)

Opti

onP

rogr

amon

lyin

Alt

.In

stit

uti

ons

0.01

760.

0136

0.01

02(0

.013

6)(0

.013

3)(0

.013

6)

Con

stan

t0.

0309

-0.0

749

0.01

13(0

.111

)(0

.103

)(0

.111

)

Obse

rvat

ions

1134

1134

1134

R2

0.35

10.

330

0.32

4A

dju

sted

R2

0.22

00.

194

0.18

7

Yea

ran

dD

istr

ict

Fix

edE

ffect

sN

otSh

own

End

ogen

ous

vari

able

isa

coho

rtgr

adua

tion

mea

sure

∗p

<0.

10,∗∗

p<

0.05

,∗∗∗

p<

0.01

40

Tab

leF

-6:

The

Eff

ect

ofO

pti

onP

rogr

ams

inT

radit

ional

Sch

ool

son

Coh

ort

Dip

lom

aR

ates

inO

rego

n

Dip

lom

aR

ate

(8th

)D

iplo

ma

Rat

e(9

th)

Dip

lom

aR

ate

(10t

h)

Per

c.B

lack

Enro

llm

ent

1.18

8-0

.464

0.48

3(1

.098

)(0

.924

)(0

.705

)

Per

c.H

ispan

icE

nro

llm

ent

-0.8

050.

113

0.25

7(0

.511

)(0

.291

)(0

.241

)

Per

cF

ree

Lunch

-0.3

43-0

.075

0-0

.210

(0.7

07)

(0.3

20)

(0.2

77)

Per

cR

educe

dor

Fre

eL

unch

-0.2

06-0

.240

-0.1

57(0

.450

)(0

.216

)(0

.201

)

Pupil

Tea

cher

Rat

io-0

.000

233

-0.0

0014

8-0

.000

359

(0.0

0024

2)(0

.000

243)

(0.0

0029

9)

Exp

endit

ure

sP

erP

upil

-0.0

0572∗∗

-0.0

0304

0.00

0877

(0.0

0282

)(0

.002

34)

(0.0

0198

)

Rev

enue

Per

Pupil

-0.0

162

-0.0

0567

-0.0

0708

(0.0

122)

(0.0

108)

(0.0

110)

Opti

onP

rog.

inR

egula

rSch

ool

s-0

.038

4∗-0

.030

0∗-0

.035

5∗

(0.0

218)

(0.0

170)

(0.0

192)

Con

stan

t1.

206∗∗∗

0.88

0∗∗∗

0.91

0∗∗∗

(0.1

79)

(0.1

28)

(0.1

22)

Obse

rvat

ions

1552

1552

1552

R2

0.54

20.

562

0.35

7A

dju

sted

R2

0.47

70.

500

0.26

6

Yea

ran

dD

istr

ict

Fix

edE

ffect

sN

otSh

own

End

ogen

ous

vari

able

isa

coho

rtgr

adua

tion

mea

sure

∗p

<0.

10,∗∗

p<

0.05

,∗∗∗

p<

0.01

41

Tab

leF

-7:

The

Eff

ect

ofO

pti

onP

rogr

ams

inT

radit

ional

Sch

ool

son

Coh

ort

Oth

er-C

omple

ter

Rat

esin

Ore

gon

Oth

er-C

omple

ter

Rat

e(8

th)

Oth

er-C

omple

ter

Rat

e(9

th)

Oth

er-C

omple

ter

Rat

e(1

0th)

Per

c.B

lack

Enro

llm

ent

0.63

90.

229

0.12

0(0

.843

)(1

.187

)(1

.097

)

Per

c.H

ispan

icE

nro

llm

ent

-0.1

61-0

.058

4-0

.156

(0.2

05)

(0.2

11)

(0.1

89)

Per

cF

ree

Lunch

-0.3

96-0

.281

-0.0

669

(0.5

03)

(0.4

85)

(0.2

97)

Per

cR

educe

dor

Fre

eL

unch

0.32

90.

261

0.06

64(0

.339

)(0

.326

)(0

.204

)

Pupil

Tea

cher

Rat

io0.

0040

5∗0.

0057

0∗∗

0.00

308

(0.0

0244

)(0

.002

84)

(0.0

0305

)

Exp

endit

ure

sP

erP

upil

-0.0

0024

20.

0001

650.

0019

7(0

.002

13)

(0.0

0219

)(0

.002

36)

Rev

enue

Per

Pupil

0.00

0786

0.00

491

0.00

372

(0.0

0788

)(0

.009

35)

(0.0

0922

)

Opti

onP

rog.

inR

egula

rSch

ool

s0.

0107

0.00

956

0.01

51(0

.011

2)(0

.011

0)(0

.010

8)

Con

stan

t0.

0341

-0.0

718

0.01

71(0

.110

)(0

.102

)(0

.111

)

Obse

rvat

ions

1134

1134

1134

R2

0.35

10.

330

0.32

5A

dju

sted

R2

0.22

00.

194

0.18

8

Yea

ran

dD

istr

ict

Fix

edE

ffect

sN

otSh

own

End

ogen

ous

vari

able

isa

coho

rtgr

adua

tion

mea

sure

∗p

<0.

10,∗∗

p<

0.05

,∗∗∗

p<

0.01

42

G Additional Supplementary Materials

43

Fig

ure

G-1

:G

raduat

ion

Rat

eB

efor

ean

dA

fter

Imple

men

ting

the

GE

DP

rogr

am,

Cal

ifor

nia

vs.

All

other

Sta

tes

78.0

%78.4

%

77.3

%

74.3

%74.6

%

72.7

%

71.

8%

76.1

%

75.8

%

74.7

%74.7

%

73.5

%73.7

%73.8

%

65%

67%

69%

71%

73%

75%

77%

79%

81%

83%

85%

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

Graduation Rate

Year

Fig

ure

A-1

. G

rad

uat

ion

Rat

e B

efo

re a

nd

Aft

er I

mp

lem

enti

ng

the

GE

D P

rogra

m, C

alif

orn

ia v

s. A

ll o

ther

Sta

tes

Cal

ifo

rnia

U.S

. (E

xclu

din

g C

alif

orn

ia)

No

tes:

Auth

ors

' cal

cula

tio

ns

bas

ed o

n N

CE

S d

ata.

Th

e gr

aduat

ion

rat

e is

th

e n

um

ber

of

regu

lar

pub

lic a

nd

pri

vat

e h

igh

sch

oo

l d

iplo

mas

iss

ued

over

th

e 14 y

ear

old

po

pula

tio

n

four

year

s p

revio

us.

Po

pula

tio

n t

ota

ls f

or

the

U.S

. w

ere

ob

tain

ed f

rom

th

e U

.S. C

ensu

s B

ure

au. C

alif

orn

ia p

op

ula

tio

n e

stim

ates

wer

e o

bta

ined

fro

m t

he

Cal

ifo

rnia

Dem

ogr

aph

ic

Res

earc

h U

nit

.

Note

s:A

uth

ors

’ca

lcu

lati

on

sb

ase

don

NC

ES

data

.T

he

gra

du

ati

on

rate

isth

enu

mb

erof

regu

lar

pu

blic

an

dp

rivate

hig

hsc

hool

dip

lom

as

issu

edover

the

14

yea

rold

pop

ula

tion

fou

ryea

rsp

revio

us.

Pop

ula

tion

tota

lsfo

rth

eU

.S.

wer

eob

tain

edfr

om

the

U.S

.C

ensu

sB

ure

au

.C

ali

forn

iap

op

ula

tion

esti

mate

sw

ere

ob

tain

edfr

om

the

Califo

rnia

Dem

ogra

ph

ic

Res

earc

hU

nit

.

44

Tab

leG

-1:

Fix

edE

ffec

tsE

stim

ates

ofth

eE

ffec

tof

the

Ref

orm

onG

ED

Tes

tT

akin

gR

ates

by

You

nge

rC

ohor

ts

Ind

epen

den

t V

aria

ble

sG

ED

Tes

t T

akin

g R

ate

(Age

s 16

-19)

GE

D T

est

Tak

ing

Rat

e (A

ges

16-1

7)G

ED

Tes

t T

akin

g R

ate

(Age

s 18

-19)

Post

199

7 du

mm

y-0

.000

20.

0007

-0.0

012

(0.0

007)

(0.0

006)

(0.0

011)

Scor

e op

tion

chan

ger s

tate

pos

t 199

7 (tr

eatm

ent e

ffect

)-0

.005

5-0

.003

4-0

.007

6(0

.001

6)(0

.001

5)(0

.002

1)Lo

cal u

nem

ploy

men

t rat

e0.

0020

0.00

190.

0021

(0.0

005)

(0.0

007)

(0.0

008)

Log

of p

er c

apita

inco

me

0.02

130.

0184

0.02

40(0

.006

1)(0

.006

4)(0

.008

4)O

bser

vatio

ns14

314

314

3N

umbe

r of S

tate

s24

2424

Not

e: H

uber

-Whi

te ro

bust

stan

dard

err

ors a

re in

par

enth

eses

(clu

ster

ed b

y st

ate)

. Mod

el is

estim

ated

usin

g O

LS. S

tate

15-

17 y

ear o

ld p

opul

atio

ns a

re

used

as w

eight

s. Th

e tre

atm

ent e

ffect

repo

rted

abov

e is

the

inte

ract

ion

betw

een

the

treat

men

t sta

te d

umm

y an

d th

e po

st 1

997

dum

my,

whe

re th

e tre

atm

ent s

tate

dum

my

is eq

ual t

o 1

for t

reat

men

t sta

tes a

nd th

e po

st 1

997

dum

my

is eq

ual t

o 1

for t

he y

ears

199

8-20

00, o

ther

wise

bot

h du

mm

ies

are

equa

l to

0. S

tate

s with

few

er th

an tw

o ob

serv

atio

ns p

er p

erio

d ar

e dr

oppe

d. T

reat

men

t sta

tes a

re th

ose

stat

es th

at w

ere

requ

ired

to e

limin

ate

the

and/

or sc

ore

optio

n. T

hese

inclu

de: L

A, M

S, N

E, N

M, T

X. C

ontro

l sta

tes a

re th

ose

that

alre

ady

had

high

eno

ugh

stan

dard

s by

1997

. The

se in

clude

: A

R, C

A, C

O, D

E, D

C, F

L, ID

, KY

, MD

, MO

, NY

, ND

, OK

, OR,

SD

, UT,

WA

, WV

, WI.

Con

trol s

tate

s dro

pped

due

to m

issin

g an

d ne

gativ

e dr

opou

t rat

es in

clude

: NJ.

No

treat

men

t sta

tes a

re d

ropp

ed.

45

Tab

leG

-2:

Fix

edE

ffec

tsE

stim

ates

ofth

eE

ffec

tof

the

Ref

orm

onG

ED

Tes

tT

akin

gR

ates

by

You

nge

rC

ohor

tsC

ontr

olling

for

Age

Req

uir

emen

ts

Ind

epen

den

t V

aria

ble

sG

ED

Tes

t T

akin

g R

ate

(Age

s 16

-19)

GE

D T

est

Tak

ing

Rat

e (A

ges

16-1

7)G

ED

Tes

t T

akin

g R

ate

(Age

s 18

-19)

Post

199

7 du

mm

y-0

.000

10.

0007

-0.0

011

(0.0

008)

(0.0

007)

(0.0

011)

Scor

e op

tion

chan

ger s

tate

pos

t 199

7 (tr

eatm

ent e

ffect

)-0

.005

7-0

.003

6-0

.007

7(0

.001

8)(0

.001

7)(0

.002

5)Lo

cal u

nem

ploy

men

t rat

e0.

0020

0.00

190.

0021

(0.0

006)

(0.0

007)

(0.0

009)

Log

of p

er c

apita

inco

me

0.02

140.

0185

0.02

41(0

.006

5)(0

.007

0)(0

.008

9)M

inim

um G

ED

age

requ

irem

ent i

s 16

0.00

090.

0007

0.00

13(d

umm

y fo

r min

imum

GE

D a

ge re

quire

men

t set

abo

ve 1

8 is

left o

ut)

(0.0

016)

(0.0

019)

(0.0

015)

Min

imum

GE

D a

ge re

quire

men

t is 1

7 -0

.001

-0.0

013

-0.0

005

(0.0

017)

(0.0

020)

(0.0

020)

Min

imum

GE

D a

ge re

quire

men

t is 1

8 -0

.000

20.

0001

-0.0

002

(0.0

014)

(0.0

015)

(0.0

013)

Min

imum

scho

ol le

avin

g ag

e is

16-0

.000

4-0

.000

70.

0001

(dum

my

for m

inim

um sc

hool

leav

ing

age

set a

bove

17

is lef

t out

)(0

.001

9)(0

.000

9)(0

.003

2)M

inim

um sc

hool

leav

ing

age

is 17

0.00

050.

0000

0.00

11(0

.001

7)(0

.001

2)(0

.003

6)O

bser

vatio

ns14

314

314

3N

umbe

r of S

tate

s24

2424

Not

e: H

uber

-Whi

te ro

bust

stan

dard

err

ors a

re in

par

enth

eses

(clu

ster

ed b

y st

ate)

. Mod

el is

estim

ated

usin

g O

LS. S

tate

15-

17 y

ear o

ld p

opul

atio

ns a

re

used

as w

eight

s. Th

e tre

atm

ent e

ffect

repo

rted

abov

e is

the

inte

ract

ion

betw

een

the

treat

men

t sta

te d

umm

y an

d th

e po

st 1

997

dum

my,

whe

re th

e tre

atm

ent s

tate

dum

my

is eq

ual t

o 1

for t

reat

men

t sta

tes a

nd th

e po

st 1

997

dum

my

is eq

ual t

o 1

for t

he y

ears

199

8-20

00, o

ther

wise

bot

h du

mm

ies

are

equa

l to

0. S

tate

s with

few

er th

an tw

o ob

serv

atio

ns p

er p

erio

d ar

e dr

oppe

d. T

reat

men

t sta

tes a

re th

ose

stat

es th

at w

ere

requ

ired

to e

limin

ate

the

and/

or sc

ore

optio

n. T

hese

inclu

de: L

A, M

S, N

E, N

M, T

X. C

ontro

l sta

tes a

re th

ose

that

alre

ady

had

high

eno

ugh

stan

dard

s by

1997

. The

se in

clude

: A

R, C

A, C

O, D

E, D

C, F

L, ID

, KY

, MD

, MO

, NY

, ND

, OK

, OR,

SD

, UT,

WA

, WV

, WI.

Con

trol s

tate

s dro

pped

due

to m

issin

g an

d ne

gativ

e dr

opou

t rat

es in

clude

: NJ.

No

treat

men

t sta

tes a

re d

ropp

ed.

46

Tab

leG

-3:

Fix

edE

ffec

tsE

stim

ates

ofth

eE

ffec

tof

the

Ref

orm

onD

rop

out

Rat

es(A

llR

aces

)

Ind

epen

den

t V

aria

ble

s10

th-1

2th

Gra

de

Dro

pou

t R

ate

10th

-11t

h G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e12

th G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e

Post

199

7 du

mm

y0.

0089

0.01

130.

003

(0.0

039)

(0.0

047)

(0.0

066)

Scor

e op

tion

chan

ger s

tate

pos

t 199

7 (tr

eatm

ent e

ffect

)-0

.012

1-0

.004

6-0

.028

6(0

.003

5)(0

.005

1)(0

.006

7)Lo

cal u

nem

ploy

men

t rat

e0.

0041

0.00

83-0

.007

8(0

.003

0)(0

.005

7)(0

.005

6)Lo

g of

per

cap

ita in

com

e-0

.028

5-0

.007

3-0

.099

4(0

.027

3)(0

.037

1)(0

.039

1)O

bser

vatio

ns14

414

414

2N

umbe

r of S

tate

s24

2424

Not

e: H

uber

-Whi

te ro

bust

stan

dard

err

ors a

re in

par

enth

eses

(clu

ster

ed b

y st

ate)

. Mod

el is

estim

ated

usin

g O

LS. S

tate

15-

17 y

ear o

ld p

opul

atio

ns a

re

used

as w

eight

s. Th

e tre

atm

ent e

ffect

repo

rted

abov

e is

the

inte

ract

ion

betw

een

the

treat

men

t sta

te d

umm

y an

d th

e po

st 1

997

dum

my,

whe

re th

e tre

atm

ent s

tate

dum

my

is eq

ual t

o 1

for t

reat

men

t sta

tes a

nd th

e po

st 1

997

dum

my

is eq

ual t

o 1

for t

he y

ears

199

8-20

00, o

ther

wise

bot

h du

mm

ies

are

equa

l to

0. S

tate

s with

few

er th

an tw

o ob

serv

atio

ns p

er p

erio

d ar

e dr

oppe

d. T

reat

men

t sta

tes a

re th

ose

stat

es th

at w

ere

requ

ired

to e

limin

ate

the

and/

or sc

ore

optio

n. T

hese

inclu

de: L

A, M

S, N

E, N

M, T

X. C

ontro

l sta

tes a

re th

ose

that

alre

ady

had

high

eno

ugh

stan

dard

s by

1997

. The

se in

clude

: A

R, C

A, C

O, D

E, D

C, F

L, ID

, KY

, MD

, MO

, NJ,

NY

, ND

, OK

, OR,

SD

, UT,

WA

, WV

, WI.

Con

trol s

tate

s dro

pped

due

to m

issin

g an

d ne

gativ

e dr

opou

t rat

es in

clude

: NJ.

No

treat

men

t sta

tes a

re d

ropp

ed.

47

Tab

leG

-4:

Fix

edE

ffec

tsE

stim

ates

ofth

eE

ffec

tof

the

Ref

orm

onD

rop

out

Rat

es(W

hit

es)

Ind

epen

den

t V

aria

ble

s10

th-1

2th

Gra

de

Dro

pou

t R

ate

10th

-11t

h G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e12

th G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e

Post

199

7 du

mm

y0.

0073

0.00

820.

0042

(0.0

031)

(0.0

054)

(0.0

064)

Scor

e op

tion

chan

ger s

tate

pos

t 199

7 (tr

eatm

ent e

ffect

)-0

.004

7-0

.000

2-0

.013

8(0

.001

5)(0

.004

3)(0

.008

2)Lo

cal u

nem

ploy

men

t rat

e0.

0037

0.00

61-0

.001

7(0

.001

5)(0

.004

0)(0

.005

0)Lo

g of

per

cap

ita in

com

e-0

.030

9-0

.014

9-0

.066

1(0

.019

1)(0

.029

1)(0

.024

7)O

bser

vatio

ns84

8382

Num

ber o

f Sta

tes

1414

14N

ote:

Hub

er-W

hite

robu

st st

anda

rd e

rror

s are

in p

aren

thes

es (c

lust

ered

by

stat

e). M

odel

is es

timat

ed u

sing

OLS

. Sta

te 1

5-17

yea

r old

pop

ulat

ions

are

us

ed a

s weig

hts.

The

treat

men

t effe

ct re

porte

d ab

ove

is th

e in

tera

ctio

n be

twee

n th

e tre

atm

ent s

tate

dum

my

and

the

post

199

7 du

mm

y, w

here

the

treat

men

t sta

te d

umm

y is

equa

l to

1 fo

r tre

atm

ent s

tate

s and

the

post

199

7 du

mm

y is

equa

l to

1 fo

r the

yea

rs 1

998-

2000

, oth

erw

ise b

oth

dum

mies

ar

e eq

ual t

o 0.

Sta

tes w

ith fe

wer

than

two

obse

rvat

ions

per

per

iod

for a

ny o

f the

dro

pout

rate

mea

sure

s by

race

are

dro

pped

. Tre

atm

ent s

tate

s are

th

ose

stat

es th

at w

ere

requ

ired

to e

limin

ate

the

and/

or sc

ore

optio

n. T

hese

inclu

de: L

A, M

S, N

E, N

M, T

X. C

ontro

l sta

tes a

re th

ose

that

alre

ady

had

high

eno

ugh

stan

dard

s by

1997

. The

se in

clude

: AR,

CA

, CO

, DE

, DC,

FL,

ID, K

Y, M

D, M

O, N

J, N

Y, N

D, O

K, O

R, S

D, U

T, W

A, W

V, W

I.

Cont

rol s

tate

s dro

pped

due

to m

issin

g an

d ne

gativ

e dr

opou

t rat

es in

clude

: AR,

ID, K

Y, M

O, N

D, N

J, N

Y, S

D, U

T, W

A, W

V. N

o tre

atm

ent s

tate

s ar

e dr

oppe

d.

48

Tab

leG

-5:

Fix

edE

ffec

tsE

stim

ates

ofth

eE

ffec

tof

the

Ref

orm

onD

rop

out

Rat

es(B

lack

s)

Ind

epen

den

t V

aria

ble

s10

th-1

2th

Gra

de

Dro

pou

t R

ate

10th

-11t

h G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e12

th G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e

Post

199

7 du

mm

y0.

0145

0.01

380.

0156

(0.0

098)

(0.0

141)

(0.0

251)

Scor

e op

tion

chan

ger s

tate

pos

t 199

7 (tr

eatm

ent e

ffect

)-0

.008

30.

0037

-0.0

402

(0.0

094)

(0.0

148)

(0.0

176)

Loca

l une

mpl

oym

ent r

ate

-0.0

032

-0.0

004

-0.0

109

(0.0

067)

(0.0

118)

(0.0

160)

Log

of p

er c

apita

inco

me

-0.1

364

-0.1

245

-0.1

584

(0.0

688)

(0.0

760)

(0.1

409)

Obs

erva

tions

8484

82N

umbe

r of S

tate

s14

1414

Not

e: H

uber

-Whi

te ro

bust

stan

dard

err

ors a

re in

par

enth

eses

(clu

ster

ed b

y st

ate)

. Mod

el is

estim

ated

usin

g O

LS. S

tate

15-

17 y

ear o

ld p

opul

atio

ns a

re

used

as w

eight

s. Th

e tre

atm

ent e

ffect

repo

rted

abov

e is

the

inte

ract

ion

betw

een

the

treat

men

t sta

te d

umm

y an

d th

e po

st 1

997

dum

my,

whe

re th

e tre

atm

ent s

tate

dum

my

is eq

ual t

o 1

for t

reat

men

t sta

tes a

nd th

e po

st 1

997

dum

my

is eq

ual t

o 1

for t

he y

ears

199

8-20

00, o

ther

wise

bot

h du

mm

ies

are

equa

l to

0. S

tate

s with

few

er th

an tw

o ob

serv

atio

ns p

er p

erio

d fo

r any

of t

he d

ropo

ut ra

te m

easu

res b

y ra

ce a

re d

ropp

ed. T

reat

men

t sta

tes a

re

thos

e st

ates

that

wer

e re

quire

d to

elim

inat

e th

e an

d/or

scor

e op

tion.

The

se in

clude

: LA

, MS,

NE

, NM

, TX

. Con

trol s

tate

s are

thos

e th

at a

lread

y ha

d hi

gh e

noug

h st

anda

rds b

y 19

97. T

hese

inclu

de: A

R, C

A, C

O, D

E, D

C, F

L, ID

, KY

, MD

, MO

, NJ,

NY

, ND

, OK

, OR,

SD

, UT,

WA

, WV

, WI.

Co

ntro

l sta

tes d

ropp

ed d

ue to

miss

ing

and

nega

tive

drop

out r

ates

inclu

de: A

R, ID

, KY

, MO

, ND

, NJ,

NY

, SD

, UT,

WA

, WV

. No

treat

men

t sta

tes

are

drop

ped.

49

Tab

leG

-6:

Fix

edE

ffec

tsE

stim

ates

ofth

eE

ffec

tof

the

Ref

orm

onD

rop

out

Rat

es(H

ispan

ics)

Ind

epen

den

t V

aria

ble

s10

th-1

2th

Gra

de

Dro

pou

t R

ate

10th

-11t

h G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e12

th G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e

Post

199

7 du

mm

y0.

0136

0.00

970.

0233

(0.0

062)

(0.0

064)

(0.0

074)

Scor

e op

tion

chan

ger s

tate

pos

t 199

7 (tr

eatm

ent e

ffect

)-0

.026

8-0

.013

8-0

.059

9(0

.004

3)(0

.006

0)(0

.003

0)Lo

cal u

nem

ploy

men

t rat

e0.

0120

0.02

02(0

.011

4)(0

.004

6)(0

.006

9)(0

.006

3)Lo

g of

per

cap

ita in

com

e-0

.004

90.

0674

-0.2

041

(0.0

562)

(0.0

677)

(0.0

611)

Obs

erva

tions

8483

82N

umbe

r of S

tate

s14

1414

Not

e: H

uber

-Whi

te ro

bust

stan

dard

err

ors a

re in

par

enth

eses

(clu

ster

ed b

y st

ate)

. Mod

el is

estim

ated

usin

g O

LS. S

tate

15-

17 y

ear o

ld p

opul

atio

ns a

re

used

as w

eight

s. Th

e tre

atm

ent e

ffect

repo

rted

abov

e is

the

inte

ract

ion

betw

een

the

treat

men

t sta

te d

umm

y an

d th

e po

st 1

997

dum

my,

whe

re th

e tre

atm

ent s

tate

dum

my

is eq

ual t

o 1

for t

reat

men

t sta

tes a

nd th

e po

st 1

997

dum

my

is eq

ual t

o 1

for t

he y

ears

199

8-20

00, o

ther

wise

bot

h du

mm

ies

are

equa

l to

0. S

tate

s with

few

er th

an tw

o ob

serv

atio

ns p

er p

erio

d fo

r any

of t

he d

ropo

ut ra

te m

easu

res b

y ra

ce a

re d

ropp

ed. T

reat

men

t sta

tes a

re

thos

e st

ates

that

wer

e re

quire

d to

elim

inat

e th

e an

d/or

scor

e op

tion.

The

se in

clude

: LA

, MS,

NE

, NM

, TX

. Con

trol s

tate

s are

thos

e th

at a

lread

y ha

d hi

gh e

noug

h st

anda

rds b

y 19

97. T

hese

inclu

de: A

R, C

A, C

O, D

E, D

C, F

L, ID

, KY

, MD

, MO

, NJ,

NY

, ND

, OK

, OR,

SD

, UT,

WA

, WV

, WI.

Cont

rol s

tate

s dro

pped

due

to m

issin

g an

d ne

gativ

e dr

opou

t rat

es in

clude

: AR,

ID, K

Y, M

O, N

D, N

J, N

Y, S

D, U

T, W

A, W

V. N

o tre

atm

ent s

tate

s ar

e dr

oppe

d.

50

Tab

leG

-7:

Fix

edE

ffec

tsE

stim

ates

ofth

eE

ffec

tof

the

Ref

orm

onD

rop

out

Rat

esC

ontr

olling

for

Age

Req

uir

emen

ts(A

llR

aces

)

Ind

epen

den

t V

aria

ble

s10

th-1

2th

Gra

de

Dro

pou

t R

ate

10th

-11t

h G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e12

th G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e

Post

199

7 du

mm

y0.

0093

0.01

250.

0023

(0.0

040)

(0.0

050)

(0.0

066)

Scor

e op

tion

chan

ger s

tate

pos

t 199

7 (tr

eatm

ent e

ffect

)-0

.012

9-0

.005

5-0

.029

5(0

.003

7)(0

.005

4)(0

.006

5)Lo

cal u

nem

ploy

men

t rat

e0.

0043

0.00

90-0

.008

4(0

.003

1)(0

.006

0)(0

.005

7)Lo

g of

per

cap

ita in

com

e-0

.027

6-0

.003

7-0

.101

8(0

.028

5)(0

.039

2)(0

.039

2)M

inim

um G

ED

age

requ

irem

ent i

s 16

0.00

470.

0145

-0.0

092

(dum

my

for m

inim

um G

ED

age

requ

irem

ent s

et a

bove

18

is lef

t out

)(0

.004

3)(0

.003

7)(0

.005

7)M

inim

um G

ED

age

requ

irem

ent i

s 17

0.00

650.

0155

-0.0

101

(0.0

054)

(0.0

053)

(0.0

117)

Min

imum

GE

D a

ge re

quire

men

t is 1

8 0.

0035

0.01

14-0

.008

6(0

.003

8)(0

.002

3)(0

.004

8)M

inim

um sc

hool

leav

ing

age

is 16

0.00

70.

0073

0.00

39(d

umm

y fo

r min

imum

scho

ol le

avin

g ag

e se

t abo

ve 1

7 is

left o

ut)

(0.0

058)

(0.0

071)

(0.0

060)

Min

imum

scho

ol le

avin

g ag

e is

170.

0187

0.01

520.

0187

(0.0

091)

(0.0

099)

(0.0

139)

Obs

erva

tions

144

144

142

Num

ber o

f Sta

tes

2424

24N

ote:

Hub

er-W

hite

robu

st st

anda

rd e

rror

s are

in p

aren

thes

es (c

lust

ered

by

stat

e). M

odel

is es

timat

ed u

sing

OLS

. Sta

te 1

5-17

yea

r old

pop

ulat

ions

are

us

ed a

s weig

hts.

The

treat

men

t effe

ct re

porte

d ab

ove

is th

e in

tera

ctio

n be

twee

n th

e tre

atm

ent s

tate

dum

my

and

the

post

199

7 du

mm

y, w

here

the

treat

men

t sta

te d

umm

y is

equa

l to

1 fo

r tre

atm

ent s

tate

s and

the

post

199

7 du

mm

y is

equa

l to

1 fo

r the

yea

rs 1

998-

2000

, oth

erw

ise b

oth

dum

mies

ar

e eq

ual t

o 0.

Sta

tes w

ith fe

wer

than

two

obse

rvat

ions

per

per

iod

are

drop

ped.

Tre

atm

ent s

tate

s are

thos

e st

ates

that

wer

e re

quire

d to

elim

inat

e th

e an

d/or

scor

e op

tion.

The

se in

clude

: LA

, MS,

NE

, NM

, TX

. Con

trol s

tate

s are

thos

e th

at a

lread

y ha

d hi

gh e

noug

h st

anda

rds b

y 19

97. T

hese

inclu

de:

AR,

CA

, CO

, DE

, DC,

FL,

ID, K

Y, M

D, M

O, N

Y, N

D, O

K, O

R, S

D, U

T, W

A, W

V, W

I. C

ontro

l sta

tes d

ropp

ed d

ue to

miss

ing

and

nega

tive

drop

out r

ates

inclu

de: N

J. N

o tre

atm

ent s

tate

s are

dro

pped

.

51

Tab

leG

-8:

Fix

edE

ffec

tsE

stim

ates

ofth

eE

ffec

tof

the

Ref

orm

onD

rop

out

Rat

esC

ontr

olling

for

Age

Req

uir

emen

ts(W

hit

es)

Ind

epen

den

t V

aria

ble

s10

th-1

2th

Gra

de

Dro

pou

t R

ate

10th

-11t

h G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e12

th G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e

Post

199

7 du

mm

y0.

0076

0.00

870.

0042

(0.0

033)

(0.0

056)

(0.0

066)

Scor

e op

tion

chan

ger s

tate

pos

t 199

7 (tr

eatm

ent e

ffect

)-0

.004

30.

0000

-0.0

132

(0.0

015)

(0.0

045)

(0.0

088)

Loca

l une

mpl

oym

ent r

ate

0.00

370.

0065

-0.0

026

(0.0

016)

(0.0

044)

(0.0

054)

Log

of p

er c

apita

inco

me

-0.0

320

-0.0

132

-0.0

741

(0.0

200)

(0.0

313)

(0.0

275)

Min

imum

GE

D a

ge re

quire

men

t is 1

6 0.

0014

0.00

59-0

.008

1(d

umm

y fo

r min

imum

GE

D a

ge re

quire

men

t set

abo

ve 1

8 is

left o

ut)

(0.0

031)

(0.0

053)

(0.0

040)

Min

imum

GE

D a

ge re

quire

men

t is 1

7 0.

0019

0.00

92-0

.016

8(0

.005

9)(0

.006

0)(0

.018

8)M

inim

um G

ED

age

requ

irem

ent i

s 18

0.00

230.

0051

-0.0

04(0

.000

6)(0

.001

1)(0

.001

6)M

inim

um sc

hool

leav

ing

age

is 16

0.01

350.

0126

0.01

15(d

umm

y fo

r min

imum

scho

ol le

avin

g ag

e se

t abo

ve 1

7 is

left o

ut)

(0.0

044)

(0.0

037)

(0.0

061)

Min

imum

scho

ol le

avin

g ag

e is

170.

0148

0.01

76-0

.001

(0.0

092)

(0.0

054)

(0.0

213)

Obs

erva

tions

8483

82N

umbe

r of S

tate

s14

1414

Not

e: H

uber

-Whi

te ro

bust

stan

dard

err

ors a

re in

par

enth

eses

(clu

ster

ed b

y st

ate)

. Mod

el is

estim

ated

usin

g O

LS. S

tate

15-

17 y

ear o

ld p

opul

atio

ns a

re

used

as w

eight

s. Th

e tre

atm

ent e

ffect

repo

rted

abov

e is

the

inte

ract

ion

betw

een

the

treat

men

t sta

te d

umm

y an

d th

e po

st 1

997

dum

my,

whe

re th

e tre

atm

ent s

tate

dum

my

is eq

ual t

o 1

for t

reat

men

t sta

tes a

nd th

e po

st 1

997

dum

my

is eq

ual t

o 1

for t

he y

ears

199

8-20

00, o

ther

wise

bot

h du

mm

ies

are

equa

l to

0. S

tate

s with

few

er th

an tw

o ob

serv

atio

ns p

er p

erio

d fo

r any

of t

he d

ropo

ut ra

te m

easu

res b

y ra

ce a

re d

ropp

ed. T

reat

men

t sta

tes a

re

thos

e st

ates

that

wer

e re

quire

d to

elim

inat

e th

e an

d/or

scor

e op

tion.

The

se in

clude

: LA

, MS,

NE

, NM

, TX

. Con

trol s

tate

s are

thos

e th

at a

lread

y ha

d hi

gh e

noug

h st

anda

rds b

y 19

97. T

hese

inclu

de: C

A, C

O, D

E, D

C, F

L, M

D,

OK

, OR,

WI.

Con

trol s

tate

s dro

pped

due

to m

issin

g an

d ne

gativ

e dr

opou

t rat

es in

clude

: AR,

ID, K

Y, M

O, N

D, N

J, N

Y, S

D, U

T, W

A, W

V. N

o tre

atm

ent s

tate

s are

dro

pped

.

52

Tab

leG

-9:

Fix

edE

ffec

tsE

stim

ates

ofth

eE

ffec

tof

the

Ref

orm

onD

rop

out

Rat

esC

ontr

olling

for

Age

Req

uir

emen

ts(B

lack

s

Ind

epen

den

t V

aria

ble

s10

th-1

2th

Gra

de

Dro

pou

t R

ate

10th

-11t

h G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e12

th G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e

Post

199

7 du

mm

y0.

0179

0.01

850.

0143

(0.0

101)

(0.0

145)

(0.0

258)

Scor

e op

tion

chan

ger s

tate

pos

t 199

7 (tr

eatm

ent e

ffect

)-0

.012

90.

0009

-0.0

484

(0.0

098)

(0.0

161)

(0.0

182)

Loca

l une

mpl

oym

ent r

ate

-0.0

026

0.00

08-0

.012

1(0

.006

7)(0

.012

5)(0

.016

7)Lo

g of

per

cap

ita in

com

e-0

.136

2-0

.123

9-0

.158

9(0

.065

2)(0

.073

3)(0

.140

5)M

inim

um G

ED

age

requ

irem

ent i

s 16

0.06

300.

0697

0.04

10(d

umm

y fo

r min

imum

GE

D a

ge re

quire

men

t set

abo

ve 1

8 is

left o

ut)

(0.0

080)

(0.0

138)

(0.0

156)

Min

imum

GE

D a

ge re

quire

men

t is 1

7 0.

0296

0.03

8-0

.025

7(0

.014

6)(0

.013

9)(0

.020

9)M

inim

um G

ED

age

requ

irem

ent i

s 18

0.05

190.

055

0.04

17(0

.003

8)(0

.005

1)(0

.008

8)M

inim

um sc

hool

leav

ing

age

is 16

0.05

650.

0666

0.03

01(d

umm

y fo

r min

imum

scho

ol le

avin

g ag

e se

t abo

ve 1

7 is

left o

ut)

(0.0

139)

(0.0

149)

(0.0

122)

Min

imum

scho

ol le

avin

g ag

e is

170.

0413

0.04

63-0

.003

(0.0

090)

(0.0

154)

(0.0

148)

Obs

erva

tions

8484

82N

umbe

r of S

tate

s14

1414

Not

e: H

uber

-Whi

te ro

bust

stan

dard

err

ors a

re in

par

enth

eses

(clu

ster

ed b

y st

ate)

. Mod

el is

estim

ated

usin

g O

LS. S

tate

15-

17 y

ear o

ld p

opul

atio

ns a

re

used

as w

eight

s. Th

e tre

atm

ent e

ffect

repo

rted

abov

e is

the

inte

ract

ion

betw

een

the

treat

men

t sta

te d

umm

y an

d th

e po

st 1

997

dum

my,

whe

re th

e tre

atm

ent s

tate

dum

my

is eq

ual t

o 1

for t

reat

men

t sta

tes a

nd th

e po

st 1

997

dum

my

is eq

ual t

o 1

for t

he y

ears

199

8-20

00, o

ther

wise

bot

h du

mm

ies

are

equa

l to

0. S

tate

s with

few

er th

an tw

o ob

serv

atio

ns p

er p

erio

d fo

r any

of t

he d

ropo

ut ra

te m

easu

res b

y ra

ce a

re d

ropp

ed. T

reat

men

t sta

tes a

re

thos

e st

ates

that

wer

e re

quire

d to

elim

inat

e th

e an

d/or

scor

e op

tion.

The

se in

clude

: LA

, MS,

NE

, NM

, TX

. Con

trol s

tate

s are

thos

e th

at a

lread

y ha

d hi

gh e

noug

h st

anda

rds b

y 19

97. T

hese

inclu

de: C

A, C

O, D

E, D

C, F

L, M

D,

OK

, OR,

WI.

Con

trol s

tate

s dro

pped

due

to m

issin

g an

d ne

gativ

e dr

opou

t rat

es in

clude

: AR,

ID, K

Y, M

O, N

D, N

J, N

Y, S

D, U

T, W

A, W

V. N

o tre

atm

ent s

tate

s are

dro

pped

.

53

Tab

leG

-10:

Fix

edE

ffec

tsE

stim

ates

ofth

eE

ffec

tof

the

Ref

orm

onD

rop

out

Rat

esC

ontr

olling

for

Age

Req

uir

emen

ts(H

ispan

ics)

Ind

epen

den

t V

aria

ble

s10

th-1

2th

Gra

de

Dro

pou

t R

ate

10th

-11t

h G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e12

th G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e

Post

199

7 du

mm

y0.

0141

0.01

070.

0224

(0.0

067)

(0.0

068)

(0.0

079)

Scor

e op

tion

chan

ger s

tate

pos

t 199

7 (tr

eatm

ent e

ffect

)-0

.027

4-0

.013

8-0

.061

6(0

.004

0)(0

.005

0)(0

.004

6)Lo

cal u

nem

ploy

men

t rat

e0.

0122

0.02

04-0

.011

0(0

.004

5)(0

.007

1)(0

.007

0)Lo

g of

per

cap

ita in

com

e-0

.003

30.

0664

-0.1

958

(0.0

582)

(0.0

690)

(0.0

714)

Min

imum

GE

D a

ge re

quire

men

t is 1

6 0.

0265

0.03

270.

0088

(dum

my

for m

inim

um G

ED

age

requ

irem

ent s

et a

bove

18

is lef

t out

)(0

.015

0)(0

.021

8)(0

.008

9)M

inim

um G

ED

age

requ

irem

ent i

s 17

0.03

010.

0414

0.00

16(0

.011

4)(0

.017

4)(0

.010

4)M

inim

um G

ED

age

requ

irem

ent i

s 18

0.04

150.

0521

0.01

31(0

.003

5)(0

.005

1)(0

.004

7)M

inim

um sc

hool

leav

ing

age

is 16

-0.0

051

-0.0

001

-0.0

166

(dum

my

for m

inim

um sc

hool

leav

ing

age

set a

bove

17

is lef

t out

)(0

.007

6)(0

.010

5)(0

.006

4)M

inim

um sc

hool

leav

ing

age

is 17

0.09

120.

113

-0.0

194

(0.0

186)

(0.0

281)

(0.0

216)

Obs

erva

tions

8483

82N

umbe

r of S

tate

s14

1414

Not

e: H

uber

-Whi

te ro

bust

stan

dard

err

ors a

re in

par

enth

eses

(clu

ster

ed b

y st

ate)

. Mod

el is

estim

ated

usin

g O

LS. S

tate

15-

17 y

ear o

ld p

opul

atio

ns a

re

used

as w

eight

s. Th

e tre

atm

ent e

ffect

repo

rted

abov

e is

the

inte

ract

ion

betw

een

the

treat

men

t sta

te d

umm

y an

d th

e po

st 1

997

dum

my,

whe

re th

e tre

atm

ent s

tate

dum

my

is eq

ual t

o 1

for t

reat

men

t sta

tes a

nd th

e po

st 1

997

dum

my

is eq

ual t

o 1

for t

he y

ears

199

8-20

00, o

ther

wise

bot

h du

mm

ies

are

equa

l to

0. S

tate

s with

few

er th

an tw

o ob

serv

atio

ns p

er p

erio

d fo

r any

of t

he d

ropo

ut ra

te m

easu

res b

y ra

ce a

re d

ropp

ed. T

reat

men

t sta

tes a

re

thos

e st

ates

that

wer

e re

quire

d to

elim

inat

e th

e an

d/or

scor

e op

tion.

The

se in

clude

: LA

, MS,

NE

, NM

, TX

. Con

trol s

tate

s are

thos

e th

at a

lread

y ha

d hi

gh e

noug

h st

anda

rds b

y 19

97. T

hese

inclu

de: C

A, C

O, D

E, D

C, F

L, M

D,

OK

, OR,

WI.

Con

trol s

tate

s dro

pped

due

to m

issin

g an

d ne

gativ

e dr

opou

t rat

es in

clude

: AR,

ID, K

Y, M

O, N

D, N

J, N

Y, S

D, U

T, W

A, W

V. N

o tre

atm

ent s

tate

s are

dro

pped

.

54

Tab

leG

-11:

Fix

edE

ffec

tsE

stim

ates

ofth

eE

ffec

tof

the

Ref

orm

onD

rop

out

Rat

esw

ith

Min

imum

Sco

reC

han

ger

Sta

tes

asC

ontr

olG

roup

(All

Rac

es)

Ind

epen

den

t V

aria

ble

s10

th-1

2th

Gra

de

Dro

pou

t R

ate

10th

-11t

h G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e12

th G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e

Post

199

7 du

mm

y0.

0182

0.01

460.

0274

(0.0

071)

(0.0

064)

(0.0

161)

Scor

e op

tion

chan

ger s

tate

pos

t 199

7 (tr

eatm

ent e

ffect

)-0

.015

3-0

.002

3-0

.048

3(0

.004

4)(0

.003

5)(0

.011

4)Lo

cal u

nem

ploy

men

t rat

e0.

0069

0.00

060.

0193

(0.0

036)

(0.0

042)

(0.0

073)

Log

of p

er c

apita

inco

me

-0.0

420

-0.0

897

0.06

40(0

.035

5)(0

.054

0)(0

.058

6)M

inim

um G

ED

age

requ

irem

ent i

s 16

0.00

07-0

.001

00.

0034

(dum

my

for m

inim

um G

ED

age

requ

irem

ent s

et a

bove

18

is lef

t out

)(0

.002

7)(0

.004

2)(0

.007

6)M

inim

um G

ED

age

requ

irem

ent i

s 17

0.00

460.

0037

0.00

31(0

.007

7)(0

.008

6)(0

.023

6)M

inim

um G

ED

age

requ

irem

ent i

s 18

0.00

450.

0088

-0.0

103

(0.0

076)

(0.0

087)

(0.0

099)

Min

imum

scho

ol le

avin

g ag

e is

160.

0031

-0.0

016

0.01

7(d

umm

y fo

r min

imum

scho

ol le

avin

g ag

e se

t abo

ve 1

7 is

left o

ut)

(0.0

036)

(0.0

026)

(0.0

083)

Min

imum

scho

ol le

avin

g ag

e is

170.

0101

-0.0

002

0.03

79(0

.005

2)(0

.005

1)(0

.023

7)O

bser

vatio

ns18

618

618

4N

umbe

r of S

tate

s31

3131

Not

e: H

uber

-Whi

te ro

bust

stan

dard

err

ors a

re in

par

enth

eses

(clu

ster

ed b

y st

ate)

. Mod

el is

estim

ated

usin

g O

LS. S

tate

15-

17 y

ear o

ld p

opul

atio

ns a

re

used

as w

eight

s. Th

e tre

atm

ent e

ffect

repo

rted

abov

e is

the

inte

ract

ion

betw

een

the

treat

men

t sta

te d

umm

y an

d th

e po

st 1

997

dum

my,

whe

re th

e tre

atm

ent s

tate

dum

my

is eq

ual t

o 1

for t

reat

men

t sta

tes a

nd th

e po

st 1

997

dum

my

is eq

ual t

o 1

for t

he y

ears

199

8-20

00, o

ther

wise

bot

h du

mm

ies

are

equa

l to

0. S

tate

s with

few

er th

an tw

o ob

serv

atio

ns p

er p

erio

d ar

e dr

oppe

d. T

reat

men

t sta

tes a

re th

ose

stat

es th

at w

ere

requ

ired

to e

limin

ate

the

and/

or sc

ore

optio

n. T

hese

inclu

de: L

A, M

S, N

E, N

M, T

X. C

ontro

l sta

tes a

re th

ose

that

wer

e re

quire

d to

raise

their

min

imum

scor

e re

quire

men

t fr

om 3

5 to

40

in 1

997.

The

se in

clude

: AK

, AL,

AZ

, CT,

GA

, HI,

IA, I

L, IN

, KS,

MA

, ME

, MI,

MN

, MT,

NC,

NH

, NV

, OH

, PA

, RI,

SC, T

N, V

A,

VT,

WY

. No

stat

es h

ad b

e dr

oppe

d as

a re

sult

of m

issin

g or

neg

ativ

e dr

opou

t rat

es.

55

Tab

leG

-12:

Fix

edE

ffec

tsE

stim

ates

ofth

eE

ffec

tof

the

Ref

orm

onD

rop

out

Rat

esw

ith

Min

imum

Sco

reC

han

ger

Sta

tes

asC

ontr

olG

roup

(Whit

es)

Ind

epen

den

t V

aria

ble

s10

th-1

2th

Gra

de

Dro

pou

t R

ate

10th

-11t

h G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e12

th G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e

Post

199

7 du

mm

y0.

0071

0.00

150.

001

(0.0

099)

(0.0

044)

(0.0

193)

Scor

e op

tion

chan

ger s

tate

pos

t 199

7 (tr

eatm

ent e

ffect

)-0

.010

8-0

.003

9-0

.021

1(0

.004

0)(0

.003

4)(0

.011

5)Lo

cal u

nem

ploy

men

t rat

e-0

.002

3-0

.004

80.

0024

(0.0

040)

(0.0

040)

(0.0

090)

Log

of p

er c

apita

inco

me

-0.0

403

-0.0

386

0.01

32(0

.027

8)(0

.025

3)(0

.044

8)M

inim

um G

ED

age

requ

irem

ent i

s 16

-0.0

061

-0.0

009

-0.0

174

(dum

my

for m

inim

um G

ED

age

requ

irem

ent s

et a

bove

18

is lef

t out

)(0

.004

3)(0

.003

4)(0

.009

4)M

inim

um G

ED

age

requ

irem

ent i

s 17

-0.0

084

-0.0

066

-0.0

089

(0.0

080)

(0.0

049)

(0.0

228)

Min

imum

GE

D a

ge re

quire

men

t is 1

8 -0

.007

6-0

.002

4-0

.015

4(0

.005

5)(0

.004

6)(0

.011

1)M

inim

um sc

hool

leav

ing

age

is 16

0.00

450.

0037

0.00

02(d

umm

y fo

r min

imum

scho

ol le

avin

g ag

e se

t abo

ve 1

7 is

left o

ut)

(0.0

048)

(0.0

033)

(0.0

106)

Min

imum

scho

ol le

avin

g ag

e is

170.

0059

0.00

350.

0078

(0.0

069)

(0.0

037)

(0.0

229)

Obs

erva

tions

117

116

118

Num

ber o

f Sta

tes

2020

20N

ote:

Hub

er-W

hite

robu

st st

anda

rd e

rror

s are

in p

aren

thes

es (c

lust

ered

by

stat

e). M

odel

is es

timat

ed u

sing

OLS

. Sta

te 1

5-17

yea

r old

pop

ulat

ions

are

us

ed a

s weig

hts.

The

treat

men

t effe

ct re

porte

d ab

ove

is th

e in

tera

ctio

n be

twee

n th

e tre

atm

ent s

tate

dum

my

and

the

post

199

7 du

mm

y, w

here

the

treat

men

t sta

te d

umm

y is

equa

l to

1 fo

r tre

atm

ent s

tate

s and

the

post

199

7 du

mm

y is

equa

l to

1 fo

r the

yea

rs 1

998-

2000

, oth

erw

ise b

oth

dum

mies

ar

e eq

ual t

o 0.

Sta

tes w

ith fe

wer

than

two

obse

rvat

ions

per

per

iod

for a

ny o

f the

dro

pout

rate

mea

sure

s by

race

are

dro

pped

. Tre

atm

ent s

tate

s are

th

ose

stat

es th

at w

ere

requ

ired

to e

limin

ate

the

and/

or sc

ore

optio

n. T

hese

inclu

de: L

A, M

S, N

E, N

M, T

X. C

ontro

l sta

tes a

re th

ose

that

wer

e re

quire

d to

raise

their

min

imum

scor

e re

quire

men

t fro

m 3

5 to

40

in 1

997.

The

se in

clude

: AK

, AL,

AZ

, CT,

GA

, HI,

IA, I

L, IN

, KS,

MA

, ME

, MI,

MN

, MT,

NC,

NH

, NV

, OH

, PA

, RI,

SC, T

N, V

A, V

T, W

Y. C

ontro

l sta

tes d

ropp

ed d

ue to

miss

ing

and

nega

tive

drop

out r

ates

inclu

de:A

L, A

Z, I

A,

ME

, MN

, MT,

NH

, SC,

TN

, VT,

WY

. No

treat

men

t sta

tes w

ere

drop

ped.

56

Tab

leG

-13:

Fix

edE

ffec

tsE

stim

ates

ofth

eE

ffec

tof

the

Ref

orm

onD

rop

out

Rat

esw

ith

Min

imum

Sco

reC

han

ger

Sta

tes

asC

ontr

olG

roup

(Bla

cks)

Ind

epen

den

t V

aria

ble

s10

th-1

2th

Gra

de

Dro

pou

t R

ate

10th

-11t

h G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e12

th G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e

Post

199

7 du

mm

y0.

0274

0.00

630.

0414

(0.0

193)

(0.0

098)

(0.0

587)

Scor

e op

tion

chan

ger s

tate

pos

t 199

7 (tr

eatm

ent e

ffect

)-0

.019

0.00

25-0

.061

(0.0

101)

(0.0

143)

(0.0

472)

Loca

l une

mpl

oym

ent r

ate

-0.0

047

-0.0

190

0.03

39(0

.007

8)(0

.017

0)(0

.031

7)Lo

g of

per

cap

ita in

com

e-0

.171

9-0

.234

90.

1443

(0.1

152)

(0.1

908)

(0.2

572)

Min

imum

GE

D a

ge re

quire

men

t is 1

6 -0

.027

10.

0037

-0.1

088

(dum

my

for m

inim

um G

ED

age

requ

irem

ent s

et a

bove

18

is lef

t out

)(0

.009

4)(0

.016

3)(0

.048

5)M

inim

um G

ED

age

requ

irem

ent i

s 17

-0.0

415

-0.0

04-0

.138

2(0

.014

8)(0

.021

0)(0

.074

3)M

inim

um G

ED

age

requ

irem

ent i

s 18

-0.0

357

0.00

08-0

.123

6(0

.012

4)(0

.021

7)(0

.063

1)M

inim

um sc

hool

leav

ing

age

is 16

0.01

95-0

.006

10.

0753

(dum

my

for m

inim

um sc

hool

leav

ing

age

set a

bove

17

is lef

t out

)(0

.009

7)(0

.015

1)(0

.045

0)M

inim

um sc

hool

leav

ing

age

is 17

0.02

16-0

.001

60.

0708

(0.0

136)

(0.0

200)

(0.0

693)

Obs

erva

tions

118

117

112

Num

ber o

f Sta

tes

2020

20N

ote:

Hub

er-W

hite

robu

st st

anda

rd e

rror

s are

in p

aren

thes

es (c

lust

ered

by

stat

e). M

odel

is es

timat

ed u

sing

OLS

. Sta

te 1

5-17

yea

r old

pop

ulat

ions

are

us

ed a

s weig

hts.

The

treat

men

t effe

ct re

porte

d ab

ove

is th

e in

tera

ctio

n be

twee

n th

e tre

atm

ent s

tate

dum

my

and

the

post

199

7 du

mm

y, w

here

the

treat

men

t sta

te d

umm

y is

equa

l to

1 fo

r tre

atm

ent s

tate

s and

the

post

199

7 du

mm

y is

equa

l to

1 fo

r the

yea

rs 1

998-

2000

, oth

erw

ise b

oth

dum

mies

ar

e eq

ual t

o 0.

Sta

tes w

ith fe

wer

than

two

obse

rvat

ions

per

per

iod

for a

ny o

f the

dro

pout

rate

mea

sure

s by

race

are

dro

pped

. Tre

atm

ent s

tate

s are

th

ose

stat

es th

at w

ere

requ

ired

to e

limin

ate

the

and/

or sc

ore

optio

n. T

hese

inclu

de: L

A, M

S, N

E, N

M, T

X. C

ontro

l sta

tes a

re th

ose

that

wer

e re

quire

d to

raise

their

min

imum

scor

e re

quire

men

t fro

m 3

5 to

40

in 1

997.

The

se in

clude

: AK

, AL,

AZ

, CT,

GA

, HI,

IA, I

L, IN

, KS,

MA

, ME

, MI,

MN

, MT,

NC,

NH

, NV

, OH

, PA

, RI,

SC, T

N, V

A, V

T, W

Y. C

ontro

l sta

tes d

ropp

ed d

ue to

miss

ing

and

nega

tive

drop

out r

ates

inclu

de:A

L, A

Z, I

A,

ME

, MN

, MT,

NH

, SC,

TN

, VT,

WY

. No

treat

men

t sta

tes w

ere

drop

ped.

57

Tab

leG

-14:

Fix

edE

ffec

tsE

stim

ates

ofth

eE

ffec

tof

the

Ref

orm

onD

rop

out

Rat

esw

ith

Min

imum

Sco

reC

han

ger

Sta

tes

asC

ontr

olG

roup

(His

pan

ics)

Ind

epen

den

t V

aria

ble

s10

th-1

2th

Gra

de

Dro

pou

t R

ate

10th

-11t

h G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e12

th G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e

Post

199

7 du

mm

y0.

0356

0.02

820.

0426

(0.0

081)

(0.0

102)

(0.0

162)

Scor

e op

tion

chan

ger s

tate

pos

t 199

7 (tr

eatm

ent e

ffect

)-0

.026

7-0

.010

9-0

.066

6(0

.010

5)(0

.015

5)(0

.013

8)Lo

cal u

nem

ploy

men

t rat

e0.

0251

0.01

140.

0511

(0.0

106)

(0.0

148)

(0.0

178)

Log

of p

er c

apita

inco

me

-0.0

177

-0.0

866

0.14

86(0

.091

5)(0

.130

9)(0

.135

4)M

inim

um G

ED

age

requ

irem

ent i

s 16

0.02

15-0

.022

70.

1092

(dum

my

for m

inim

um G

ED

age

requ

irem

ent s

et a

bove

18

is lef

t out

)(0

.036

3)(0

.015

6)(0

.087

9)M

inim

um G

ED

age

requ

irem

ent i

s 17

0.01

29-0

.032

40.

1062

(0.0

348)

(0.0

186)

(0.0

826)

Min

imum

GE

D a

ge re

quire

men

t is 1

8 0.

0062

-0.0

227

0.06

81(0

.031

1)(0

.015

7)(0

.074

1)M

inim

um sc

hool

leav

ing

age

is 16

0.00

950.

0078

0.00

38(d

umm

y fo

r min

imum

scho

ol le

avin

g ag

e se

t abo

ve 1

7 is

left o

ut)

(0.0

095)

(0.0

156)

(0.0

128)

Min

imum

scho

ol le

avin

g ag

e is

170.

1285

0.15

02-0

.009

(0.0

162)

(0.0

221)

(0.0

183)

Obs

erva

tions

118

116

115

Num

ber o

f Sta

tes

2020

20N

ote:

Hub

er-W

hite

robu

st st

anda

rd e

rror

s are

in p

aren

thes

es (c

lust

ered

by

stat

e). M

odel

is es

timat

ed u

sing

OLS

. Sta

te 1

5-17

yea

r old

pop

ulat

ions

are

us

ed a

s weig

hts.

The

treat

men

t effe

ct re

porte

d ab

ove

is th

e in

tera

ctio

n be

twee

n th

e tre

atm

ent s

tate

dum

my

and

the

post

199

7 du

mm

y, w

here

the

treat

men

t sta

te d

umm

y is

equa

l to

1 fo

r tre

atm

ent s

tate

s and

the

post

199

7 du

mm

y is

equa

l to

1 fo

r the

yea

rs 1

998-

2000

, oth

erw

ise b

oth

dum

mies

ar

e eq

ual t

o 0.

Sta

tes w

ith fe

wer

than

two

obse

rvat

ions

per

per

iod

for a

ny o

f the

dro

pout

rate

mea

sure

s by

race

are

dro

pped

. Tre

atm

ent s

tate

s are

th

ose

stat

es th

at w

ere

requ

ired

to e

limin

ate

the

and/

or sc

ore

optio

n. T

hese

inclu

de: L

A, M

S, N

E, N

M, T

X. C

ontro

l sta

tes a

re th

ose

that

wer

e re

quire

d to

raise

their

min

imum

scor

e re

quire

men

t fro

m 3

5 to

40

in 1

997.

The

se in

clude

: AK

, AL,

AZ

, CT,

GA

, HI,

IA, I

L, IN

, KS,

MA

, ME

, MI,

MN

, MT,

NC,

NH

, NV

, OH

, PA

, RI,

SC, T

N, V

A, V

T, W

Y. C

ontro

l sta

tes d

ropp

ed d

ue to

miss

ing

and

nega

tive

drop

out r

ates

inclu

de:A

L, A

Z, I

A,

ME

, MN

, MT,

NH

, SC,

TN

, VT,

WY

. No

treat

men

t sta

tes w

ere

drop

ped.

58

Tab

leG

-15:

Fix

edE

ffec

tsE

stim

ates

ofth

eE

ffec

tof

the

Ref

orm

onD

rop

out

Rat

esR

estr

icti

ng

Sam

ple

toSou

ther

nSta

tes

(All

Rac

es)

Ind

epen

den

t V

aria

ble

s10

th-1

2th

Gra

de

Dro

pou

t R

ate

10th

-11t

h G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e12

th G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e

Post

199

7 du

mm

y0.

0117

0.01

120.

013

(0.0

055)

(0.0

072)

(0.0

079)

Scor

e op

tion

chan

ger s

tate

pos

t 199

7 (tr

eatm

ent e

ffect

)-0

.014

5-0

.009

5-0

.021

7(0

.002

1)(0

.002

6)(0

.010

1)Lo

cal u

nem

ploy

men

t rat

e-0

.002

3-0

.006

90.

0047

(0.0

030)

(0.0

033)

(0.0

053)

Log

of p

er c

apita

inco

me

-0.0

798

-0.0

906

-0.1

029

(0.0

359)

(0.0

308)

(0.0

601)

Min

imum

GE

D a

ge re

quire

men

t is 1

6 -0

.001

90.

0128

-0.0

198

(dum

my

for m

inim

um G

ED

age

requ

irem

ent s

et a

bove

18

is lef

t out

)(0

.001

9)(0

.001

9)(0

.006

1)M

inim

um G

ED

age

requ

irem

ent i

s 17

-0.0

054

0.01

39-0

.045

3(0

.012

4)(0

.013

9)(0

.006

9)M

inim

um G

ED

age

requ

irem

ent i

s 18

-0.0

032

0.01

23-0

.020

9(0

.001

6)(0

.002

0)(0

.004

2)M

inim

um sc

hool

leav

ing

age

is 16

0.00

860.

010.

0005

(dum

my

for m

inim

um sc

hool

leav

ing

age

set a

bove

17

is lef

t out

)(0

.008

5)(0

.010

0)(0

.004

5)M

inim

um sc

hool

leav

ing

age

is 17

0.01

70.

0205

-0.0

11(0

.021

1)(0

.024

1)(0

.006

7)O

bser

vatio

ns72

7270

Num

ber o

f Sta

tes

1212

12N

ote:

Hub

er-W

hite

robu

st st

anda

rd e

rror

s are

in p

aren

thes

es (c

lust

ered

by

stat

e). M

odel

is es

timat

ed u

sing

OLS

. Sta

te 1

5-17

yea

r old

pop

ulat

ion

are

used

as w

eight

s. St

ates

with

few

er th

an tw

o ob

serv

atio

ns p

er p

erio

d ar

e dr

oppe

d. T

he tr

eatm

ent e

ffect

repo

rted

abov

e is

the

inte

ract

ion

betw

een

the

treat

men

t sta

te d

umm

y an

d th

e po

st p

erio

d du

mm

y, w

here

the

treat

men

t sta

te d

umm

y is

equa

l to

1 fo

r tre

atm

ent s

tate

s and

the

post

perio

d du

mm

y is

equa

l to

1 fo

r the

yea

rs 1

998-

2000

, oth

erw

ise b

oth

dum

mies

are

equ

al to

0. T

reat

men

t sta

tes a

re th

ose

stat

es in

the

sout

h th

at w

ere

requ

ired

to

elim

inat

e th

e an

d/or

scor

e op

tion.

The

se in

clude

: LA

, MS,

NM

, TX

. Con

trol s

tate

s are

thos

e st

ates

in th

e so

uth

that

alre

ady

had

high

eno

ugh

stan

dard

s by

1997

. The

se in

clude

: AR,

DE

, DC,

FL,

KY

, MD

, OK

and

WV

.

59

Tab

leG

-16:

Fix

edE

ffec

tsE

stim

ates

ofth

eE

ffec

tof

the

Ref

orm

onD

rop

out

Rat

esR

estr

icti

ng

Sam

ple

toSou

ther

nSta

tes

(Whit

es)

Ind

epen

den

t V

aria

ble

s10

th-1

2th

Gra

de

Dro

pou

t R

ate

10th

-11t

h G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e12

th G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e

Post

199

7 du

mm

y0.

0075

0.00

80.

004

(0.0

052)

(0.0

093)

(0.0

078)

Scor

e op

tion

chan

ger s

tate

pos

t 199

7 (tr

eatm

ent e

ffect

)-0

.004

2-0

.005

30.

0007

(0.0

014)

(0.0

045)

(0.0

123)

Loca

l une

mpl

oym

ent r

ate

0.00

10-0

.001

70.

0082

(0.0

032)

(0.0

050)

(0.0

035)

Log

of p

er c

apita

inco

me

-0.0

490

-0.0

403

-0.0

606

(0.0

408)

(0.0

546)

(0.0

476)

Min

imum

GE

D a

ge re

quire

men

t is 1

6 0.

5726

…0.

6661

(dum

my

for m

inim

um G

ED

age

requ

irem

ent s

et a

bove

18

is lef

t out

)(0

.411

0)…

(0.5

179)

Min

imum

GE

D a

ge re

quire

men

t is 1

7 0.

5632

-0.0

021

0.63

02(0

.413

4)(0

.005

2)(0

.518

2)M

inim

um G

ED

age

requ

irem

ent i

s 18

0.57

23-0

.000

30.

6664

(0.4

115)

(0.0

040)

(0.5

199)

Min

imum

scho

ol le

avin

g ag

e is

160.

0129

0.01

230.

0068

(dum

my

for m

inim

um sc

hool

leav

ing

age

set a

bove

17

is lef

t out

)(0

.006

9)(0

.006

2)(0

.006

6)M

inim

um sc

hool

leav

ing

age

is 17

0.00

560.

0139

-0.0

345

(0.0

160)

(0.0

107)

(0.0

042)

Obs

erva

tions

5453

52N

umbe

r of S

tate

s9

99

Not

e: H

uber

-Whi

te ro

bust

stan

dard

err

ors a

re in

par

enth

eses

(clu

ster

ed b

y st

ate)

. Mod

el is

estim

ated

usin

g O

LS. S

tate

15-

17 y

ear o

ld p

opul

atio

n by

ra

ce a

re u

sed

as w

eight

s. S

tate

s with

few

er th

an tw

o ob

serv

atio

ns p

er p

erio

d fo

r any

of t

he d

ropo

ut ra

te m

easu

res b

y ra

ce a

re d

ropp

ed. T

he

treat

men

t effe

ct re

porte

d ab

ove

is th

e in

tera

ctio

n be

twee

n th

e tre

atm

ent s

tate

dum

my

and

the

post

per

iod

dum

my,

whe

re th

e tre

atm

ent s

tate

dum

my

is eq

ual t

o 1

for t

reat

men

t sta

tes a

nd th

e po

st p

erio

d du

mm

y is

equa

l to

1 fo

r the

yea

rs 1

998-

2000

, oth

erw

ise b

oth

dum

mies

are

equ

al to

0.

Trea

tmen

t sta

tes a

re th

ose

stat

es in

the

sout

h th

at w

ere

requ

ired

to e

limin

ate

the

and/

or sc

ore

optio

n. T

hese

inclu

de: L

A, M

S, N

M, T

X. C

ontro

l st

ates

are

thos

e st

ates

in th

e so

uth

that

alre

ady

had

high

eno

ugh

stan

dard

s by

1997

. The

se in

clude

: AR,

DE

, DC,

FL,

KY

, MD

, OK

and

WV

. Con

trol

stat

es d

ropp

ed d

ue to

miss

ings

inclu

de: A

R, K

Y a

nd W

V. N

o tre

atm

ent s

tate

s wer

e dr

oppe

d as

a re

sult

of m

issin

gs.

60

Tab

leG

-17:

Fix

edE

ffec

tsE

stim

ates

ofth

eE

ffec

tof

the

Ref

orm

onD

rop

out

Rat

esR

estr

icti

ng

Sam

ple

toSou

ther

nSta

tes

(Bla

cks)

Ind

epen

den

t V

aria

ble

s10

th-1

2th

Gra

de

Dro

pou

t R

ate

10th

-11t

h G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e12

th G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e

Post

199

7 du

mm

y0.

0233

0.01

810.

0347

(0.0

121)

(0.0

184)

(0.0

219)

Scor

e op

tion

chan

ger s

tate

pos

t 199

7 (tr

eatm

ent e

ffect

)-0

.021

6-0

.015

9-0

.033

(0.0

046)

(0.0

090)

(0.0

224)

Loca

l une

mpl

oym

ent r

ate

-0.0

061

-0.0

112

0.00

84(0

.008

2)(0

.009

8)(0

.010

5)Lo

g of

per

cap

ita in

com

e-0

.144

6-0

.129

4-0

.172

3(0

.069

8)(0

.054

4)(0

.169

0)M

inim

um G

ED

age

requ

irem

ent i

s 16

……

1.79

31(d

umm

y fo

r min

imum

GE

D a

ge re

quire

men

t set

abo

ve 1

8 is

left o

ut)

……

(1.7

685)

Min

imum

GE

D a

ge re

quire

men

t is 1

7 -0

.013

8-0

.011

81.

7195

(0.0

052)

(0.0

069)

(1.7

593)

Min

imum

GE

D a

ge re

quire

men

t is 1

8 -0

.006

4-0

.007

41.

7908

(0.0

031)

(0.0

055)

(1.7

627)

Min

imum

scho

ol le

avin

g ag

e is

160.

0506

0.06

550.

0323

(dum

my

for m

inim

um sc

hool

leav

ing

age

set a

bove

17

is lef

t out

)(0

.004

3)(0

.005

5)(0

.015

4)M

inim

um sc

hool

leav

ing

age

is 17

0.05

260.

0656

-0.0

177

(0.0

033)

(0.0

093)

(0.0

178)

Obs

erva

tions

5454

52N

umbe

r of S

tate

s9

99

Not

e: H

uber

-Whi

te ro

bust

stan

dard

err

ors a

re in

par

enth

eses

(clu

ster

ed b

y st

ate)

. Mod

el is

estim

ated

usin

g O

LS. S

tate

15-

17 y

ear o

ld p

opul

atio

n by

ra

ce a

re u

sed

as w

eight

s. St

ates

with

few

er th

an tw

o ob

serv

atio

ns p

er p

erio

d fo

r any

of t

he d

ropo

ut ra

te m

easu

res b

y ra

ce a

re d

ropp

ed. T

he

treat

men

t effe

ct re

porte

d ab

ove

is th

e in

tera

ctio

n be

twee

n th

e tre

atm

ent s

tate

dum

my

and

the

post

per

iod

dum

my,

whe

re th

e tre

atm

ent s

tate

dum

my

is eq

ual t

o 1

for t

reat

men

t sta

tes a

nd th

e po

st p

erio

d du

mm

y is

equa

l to

1 fo

r the

yea

rs 1

998-

2000

, oth

erw

ise b

oth

dum

mies

are

equ

al to

0.

Trea

tmen

t sta

tes a

re th

ose

stat

es in

the

sout

h th

at w

ere

requ

ired

to e

limin

ate

the

and/

or sc

ore

optio

n. T

hese

inclu

de: L

A, M

S, N

M, T

X. C

ontro

l st

ates

are

thos

e st

ates

in th

e so

uth

that

alre

ady

had

high

eno

ugh

stan

dard

s by

1997

. The

se in

clude

: AR,

DE

, DC,

FL,

KY

, MD

, OK

and

WV

. Con

trol

stat

es d

ropp

ed d

ue to

miss

ings

inclu

de: A

R, K

Y a

nd W

V. N

o tre

atm

ent s

tate

s wer

e dr

oppe

d as

a re

sult

of m

issin

gs.

61

Tab

leG

-18:

Fix

edE

ffec

tsE

stim

ates

ofth

eE

ffec

tof

the

Ref

orm

onD

rop

out

Rat

esR

estr

icti

ng

Sam

ple

toSou

ther

nSta

tes

(His

pan

ics)

Ind

epen

den

t V

aria

ble

s10

th-1

2th

Gra

de

Dro

pou

t R

ate

10th

-11t

h G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e12

th G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e

Post

199

7 du

mm

y0.

0221

0.01

750.

0321

(0.0

176)

(0.0

222)

(0.0

080)

Scor

e op

tion

chan

ger s

tate

pos

t 199

7 (tr

eatm

ent e

ffect

)-0

.030

8-0

.018

9-0

.058

2(0

.010

5)(0

.014

2)(0

.009

6)Lo

cal u

nem

ploy

men

t rat

e0.

0069

0.00

580.

0108

(0.0

189)

(0.0

279)

(0.0

121)

Log

of p

er c

apita

inco

me

-0.0

579

-0.0

358

-0.1

109

(0.1

369)

(0.1

830)

(0.1

271)

Min

imum

GE

D a

ge re

quire

men

t is 1

6 …

…1.

1960

(dum

my

for m

inim

um G

ED

age

requ

irem

ent s

et a

bove

18

is lef

t out

)…

…(1

.327

7)M

inim

um G

ED

age

requ

irem

ent i

s 17

-0.0

015

0.00

001.

197

(0.0

068)

(0.0

090)

(1.3

271)

Min

imum

GE

D a

ge re

quire

men

t is 1

8 0.

0103

0.01

751.

1906

(0.0

189)

(0.0

278)

(1.3

340)

Min

imum

scho

ol le

avin

g ag

e is

160.

0003

0.00

52-0

.012

1(d

umm

y fo

r min

imum

scho

ol le

avin

g ag

e se

t abo

ve 1

7 is

left o

ut)

(0.0

100)

(0.0

122)

(0.0

060)

Min

imum

scho

ol le

avin

g ag

e is

170.

0961

0.11

97-0

.019

6(0

.018

4)(0

.024

4)(0

.012

5)O

bser

vatio

ns54

5352

Num

ber o

f Sta

tes

99

9N

ote:

Hub

er-W

hite

robu

st st

anda

rd e

rror

s are

in p

aren

thes

es (c

lust

ered

by

stat

e). M

odel

is es

timat

ed u

sing

OLS

. Sta

te 1

5-17

yea

r old

pop

ulat

ion

by

race

are

use

d as

weig

hts.

Stat

es w

ith fe

wer

than

two

obse

rvat

ions

per

per

iod

for a

ny o

f the

dro

pout

rate

mea

sure

s by

race

are

dro

pped

. The

tre

atm

ent e

ffect

repo

rted

abov

e is

the

inte

ract

ion

betw

een

the

treat

men

t sta

te d

umm

y an

d th

e po

st p

erio

d du

mm

y, w

here

the

treat

men

t sta

te d

umm

y is

equa

l to

1 fo

r tre

atm

ent s

tate

s and

the

post

per

iod

dum

my

is eq

ual t

o 1

for t

he y

ears

199

8-20

00, o

ther

wise

bot

h du

mm

ies a

re e

qual

to 0

. Tr

eatm

ent s

tate

s are

thos

e st

ates

in th

e so

uth

that

wer

e re

quire

d to

elim

inat

e th

e an

d/or

scor

e op

tion.

The

se in

clude

: LA

, MS,

NM

, TX

. Con

trol

stat

es a

re th

ose

stat

es in

the

sout

h th

at a

lread

y ha

d hi

gh e

noug

h st

anda

rds b

y 19

97. T

hese

inclu

de: A

R, D

E, D

C, F

L, K

Y, M

D, O

K an

d W

V. C

ontro

l st

ates

dro

pped

due

to m

issin

gs in

clude

: AR,

KY

and

WV

. No

treat

men

t sta

tes w

ere

drop

ped

as a

resu

lt of

miss

ings

.

62

Tab

leG

-19:

Fix

edE

ffec

tsE

stim

ates

ofth

eE

ffec

tof

the

Ref

orm

onD

rop

out

Rat

esE

xcl

udin

gSta

tes

that

Chan

ged

Min

imum

Age

Req

uir

edto

Dro

pO

ut

(All

Rac

es)

Ind

epen

den

t V

aria

ble

s10

th-1

2th

Gra

de

Dro

pou

t R

ate

10th

-11t

h G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e12

th G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e

Post

199

7 du

mm

y0.

0094

0.01

260.

0023

(0.0

040)

(0.0

050)

(0.0

066)

Scor

e op

tion

chan

ger s

tate

pos

t 199

7 (tr

eatm

ent e

ffect

)-0

.013

-0.0

056

-0.0

293

(0.0

037)

(0.0

054)

(0.0

065)

Loca

l une

mpl

oym

ent r

ate

0.00

420.

0089

-0.0

086

(0.0

032)

(0.0

062)

(0.0

058)

Log

of p

er c

apita

inco

me

-0.0

288

-0.0

043

-0.1

038

(0.0

298)

(0.0

413)

(0.0

409)

Min

imum

GE

D a

ge re

quire

men

t is 1

6 0.

0048

0.01

49-0

.009

8(d

umm

y fo

r min

imum

GE

D a

ge re

quire

men

t set

abo

ve 1

8 is

left o

ut)

(0.0

044)

(0.0

041)

(0.0

058)

Min

imum

GE

D a

ge re

quire

men

t is 1

7 0.

0073

0.01

42-0

.002

2(0

.005

0)(0

.005

2)(0

.008

9)M

inim

um G

ED

age

requ

irem

ent i

s 18

0.00

340.

0112

-0.0

084

(0.0

038)

(0.0

023)

(0.0

045)

Obs

erva

tions

126

126

125

Num

ber o

f Sta

tes

2121

21N

ote:

Hub

er-W

hite

robu

st st

anda

rd e

rror

s are

in p

aren

thes

es (c

lust

ered

by

stat

e). M

odel

is es

timat

ed u

sing

OLS

. Sta

te 1

5-17

yea

r old

pop

ulat

ion

are

used

as w

eight

s. St

ates

with

few

er th

an tw

o ob

serv

atio

ns p

er p

erio

d ar

e dr

oppe

d. T

he tr

eatm

ent e

ffect

repo

rted

abov

e is

the

inte

ract

ion

betw

een

the

treat

men

t sta

te d

umm

y an

d th

e po

st p

erio

d du

mm

y, w

here

the

treat

men

t sta

te d

umm

y is

equa

l to

1 fo

r tre

atm

ent s

tate

s and

the

post

perio

d du

mm

y is

equa

l to

1 fo

r the

yea

rs 1

998-

2000

, oth

erw

ise b

oth

dum

mies

are

equ

al to

0. T

reat

men

t sta

tes a

re th

ose

stat

es th

at w

ere

requ

ired

to e

limin

ate

the

and/

or sc

ore

optio

n. T

hese

inclu

de: L

A, M

S, N

E, N

M, T

X. T

reat

men

t sta

tes d

ropp

ed in

this

regr

essio

n ar

e M

S an

d N

M. C

ontro

l sta

tes a

re th

ose

that

alre

ady

had

high

eno

ugh

stan

dard

s by

1997

. The

se in

clude

: AR,

CA

, CO

, DE

, DC,

FL,

ID, K

Y, M

D, M

O, N

J, N

Y, N

D, O

K, O

R, S

D, U

T,

WA

, WV

, WI.

Was

hing

ton

D.C

. is t

he o

nly

one

from

the

cont

rol g

roup

dro

pped

due

to c

hang

es in

min

imum

age

requ

ired

to d

rop

out.

Cont

rol

stat

es d

ropp

ed d

ue to

miss

ing

and

nega

tive

drop

out r

ates

inclu

de: N

J. N

o tre

atm

ent s

tate

s are

dro

pped

.

63

Tab

leG

-20:

Fix

edE

ffec

tsE

stim

ates

ofth

eE

ffec

tof

the

Ref

orm

onD

rop

out

Rat

esE

xcl

udin

gSta

tes

that

Chan

ged

Min

imum

Age

Req

uir

edto

Dro

pO

ut

(Whit

es)

Ind

epen

den

t V

aria

ble

s10

th-1

2th

Gra

de

Dro

pou

t R

ate

10th

-11t

h G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e12

th G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e

Post

199

7 du

mm

y0.

0079

0.00

930.

0039

(0.0

033)

(0.0

057)

(0.0

068)

Scor

e op

tion

chan

ger s

tate

pos

t 199

7 (tr

eatm

ent e

ffect

)-0

.004

20.

0001

-0.0

128

(0.0

016)

(0.0

047)

(0.0

091)

Loca

l une

mpl

oym

ent r

ate

0.00

320.

0058

-0.0

024

(0.0

018)

(0.0

046)

(0.0

056)

Log

of p

er c

apita

inco

me

-0.0

374

-0.0

217

-0.0

708

(0.0

210)

(0.0

330)

(0.0

301)

Min

imum

GE

D a

ge re

quire

men

t is 1

6 0.

0002

0.00

47-0

.008

8(d

umm

y fo

r min

imum

GE

D a

ge re

quire

men

t set

abo

ve 1

8 is

left o

ut)

(0.0

031)

(0.0

058)

(0.0

045)

Min

imum

GE

D a

ge re

quire

men

t is 1

7 0.

0041

0.00

75-0

.002

5(0

.003

5)(0

.007

7)(0

.009

0)M

inim

um G

ED

age

requ

irem

ent i

s 18

0.00

20.

0047

-0.0

039

(0.0

007)

(0.0

011)

(0.0

016)

Obs

erva

tions

6666

66N

umbe

r of S

tate

s11

1111

No

treat

men

t sta

tes a

re d

ropp

ed.

Not

e: H

uber

-Whi

te ro

bust

stan

dard

err

ors a

re in

par

enth

eses

(clu

ster

ed b

y st

ate)

. Mod

el is

estim

ated

usin

g O

LS. S

tate

15-

17 y

ear o

ld p

opul

atio

n ar

e us

ed a

s weig

hts.

Sta

tes w

ith fe

wer

than

two

obse

rvat

ions

per

per

iod

for a

ny o

f the

dro

pout

rate

mea

sure

s by

race

are

dro

pped

. The

trea

tmen

t effe

ct

repo

rted

abov

e is

the

inte

ract

ion

betw

een

the

treat

men

t sta

te d

umm

y an

d th

e po

st p

erio

d du

mm

y, w

here

the

treat

men

t sta

te d

umm

y is

equa

l to

1 fo

r tre

atm

ent s

tate

s and

the

post

per

iod

dum

my

is eq

ual t

o 1

for t

he y

ears

199

8-20

00, o

ther

wise

bot

h du

mm

ies a

re e

qual

to 0

. Tre

atm

ent s

tate

s are

thos

e st

ates

that

wer

e re

quire

d to

elim

inat

e th

e an

d/or

scor

e op

tion.

The

se in

clude

: LA

, MS,

NE

, NM

, TX

. Tre

atm

ent s

tate

s dro

pped

in th

is re

gres

sion

due

to c

hang

es in

min

imum

age

requ

ired

to d

rop

out o

f sch

ool a

re M

S an

d N

M. C

ontro

l sta

tes a

re th

ose

that

alre

ady

had

high

eno

ugh

stan

dard

s by

1997

. The

se in

clude

: AR,

CA

, CO

, DE

, DC,

FL,

ID, K

Y, M

D, M

O, N

J, N

Y, N

D, O

K, O

R, S

D, U

T, W

A, W

V, W

I. W

ashi

ngto

n D

.C. i

s the

onl

y on

e fr

om th

e co

ntro

l gro

up d

ropp

ed d

ue to

cha

nges

in m

inim

um a

ge re

quire

d to

dro

p ou

t. Co

ntro

l sta

tes d

ropp

ed d

ue to

miss

ing

and

nega

tive

drop

out r

ates

inclu

de: A

R, ID

, KY

, MO

, ND

, NJ,

NY

, SD

, UT,

WA

, WV

.

64

Tab

leG

-21:

Fix

edE

ffec

tsE

stim

ates

ofth

eE

ffec

tof

the

Ref

orm

onD

rop

out

Rat

esE

xcl

udin

gSta

tes

that

Chan

ged

Min

imum

Age

Req

uir

edto

Dro

pO

ut

(Bla

cks)

Ind

epen

den

t V

aria

ble

s10

th-1

2th

Gra

de

Dro

pou

t R

ate

10th

-11t

h G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e12

th G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e

Post

199

7 du

mm

y0.

0168

0.01

770.

012

(0.0

098)

(0.0

145)

(0.0

264)

Scor

e op

tion

chan

ger s

tate

pos

t 199

7 (tr

eatm

ent e

ffect

)-0

.012

50.

0013

-0.0

476

(0.0

097)

(0.0

162)

(0.0

173)

Loca

l une

mpl

oym

ent r

ate

-0.0

057

-0.0

014

-0.0

173

(0.0

065)

(0.0

137)

(0.0

181)

Log

of p

er c

apita

inco

me

-0.1

582

-0.1

385

-0.1

952

(0.0

692)

(0.0

823)

(0.1

532)

Min

imum

GE

D a

ge re

quire

men

t is 1

6 0.

0693

0.08

820.

0153

(dum

my

for m

inim

um G

ED

age

requ

irem

ent s

et a

bove

18

is lef

t out

)(0

.016

7)(0

.024

0)(0

.021

1)M

inim

um G

ED

age

requ

irem

ent i

s 17

0.00

860.

0304

-0.0

44(0

.014

9)(0

.025

7)(0

.041

3)M

inim

um G

ED

age

requ

irem

ent i

s 18

0.04

990.

0537

0.03

82(0

.003

1)(0

.005

0)(0

.010

0)O

bser

vatio

ns66

6666

Num

ber o

f Sta

tes

1111

11

No

treat

men

t sta

tes a

re d

ropp

ed.

Not

e: H

uber

-Whi

te ro

bust

stan

dard

err

ors a

re in

par

enth

eses

(clu

ster

ed b

y st

ate)

. Mod

el is

estim

ated

usin

g O

LS. S

tate

15-

17 y

ear o

ld p

opul

atio

n ar

e us

ed a

s weig

hts.

Sta

tes w

ith fe

wer

than

two

obse

rvat

ions

per

per

iod

for a

ny o

f the

dro

pout

rate

mea

sure

s by

race

are

dro

pped

. The

trea

tmen

t effe

ct

repo

rted

abov

e is

the

inte

ract

ion

betw

een

the

treat

men

t sta

te d

umm

y an

d th

e po

st p

erio

d du

mm

y, w

here

the

treat

men

t sta

te d

umm

y is

equa

l to

1 fo

r tre

atm

ent s

tate

s and

the

post

per

iod

dum

my

is eq

ual t

o 1

for t

he y

ears

199

8-20

00, o

ther

wise

bot

h du

mm

ies a

re e

qual

to 0

. Tre

atm

ent s

tate

s are

th

ose

stat

es th

at w

ere

requ

ired

to e

limin

ate

the

and/

or sc

ore

optio

n. T

hese

inclu

de: L

A, M

S, N

E, N

M, T

X. T

reat

men

t sta

tes d

ropp

ed in

this

regr

essio

n du

e to

cha

nges

in m

inim

um a

ge re

quire

d to

dro

p ou

t of s

choo

l are

MS

and

NM

. Con

trol s

tate

s are

thos

e th

at a

lread

y ha

d hi

gh e

noug

h st

anda

rds b

y 19

97. T

hese

inclu

de: A

R, C

A, C

O, D

E, D

C, F

L, ID

, KY

, MD

, MO

, NJ,

NY

, ND

, OK

, OR,

SD

, UT,

WA

, WV

, WI.

Was

hing

ton

D.C

. is

the

only

one

from

the

cont

rol g

roup

dro

pped

due

to c

hang

es in

min

imum

age

requ

ired

to d

rop

out.

Cont

rol s

tate

s dro

pped

due

to m

issin

g an

d ne

gativ

e dr

opou

t rat

es in

clude

: AR,

ID, K

Y, M

O, N

D, N

J, N

Y, S

D, U

T, W

A, W

V.

65

Tab

leG

-22:

Fix

edE

ffec

tsE

stim

ates

ofth

eE

ffec

tof

the

Ref

orm

onD

rop

out

Rat

esE

xcl

udin

gSta

tes

that

Chan

ged

Min

imum

Age

Req

uir

edto

Dro

pO

ut

(His

pan

ics)

Ind

epen

den

t V

aria

ble

s10

th-1

2th

Gra

de

Dro

pou

t R

ate

10th

-11t

h G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e12

th G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e

Post

199

7 du

mm

y0.

0142

0.01

070.

0225

(0.0

064)

(0.0

065)

(0.0

076)

Scor

e op

tion

chan

ger s

tate

pos

t 199

7 (tr

eatm

ent e

ffect

)-0

.025

8-0

.012

5-0

.059

8(0

.004

0)(0

.005

2)(0

.004

8)Lo

cal u

nem

ploy

men

t rat

e0.

0105

0.01

89-0

.012

9(0

.004

6)(0

.007

6)(0

.007

2)Lo

g of

per

cap

ita in

com

e-0

.021

30.

0507

-0.2

160

(0.0

596)

(0.0

739)

(0.0

728)

Min

imum

GE

D a

ge re

quire

men

t is 1

6 0.

0226

0.02

620.

0057

(dum

my

for m

inim

um G

ED

age

requ

irem

ent s

et a

bove

18

is lef

t out

)(0

.013

2)(0

.019

2)(0

.013

1)M

inim

um G

ED

age

requ

irem

ent i

s 17

0.03

440.

0407

0.00

79(0

.011

9)(0

.018

3)(0

.016

3)M

inim

um G

ED

age

requ

irem

ent i

s 18

0.04

010.

0509

0.01

15(0

.003

5)(0

.005

4)(0

.005

0)O

bser

vatio

ns66

6664

Num

ber o

f Sta

tes

1111

11

No

treat

men

t sta

tes a

re d

ropp

ed.

Not

e: H

uber

-Whi

te ro

bust

stan

dard

err

ors a

re in

par

enth

eses

(clu

ster

ed b

y st

ate)

. Mod

el is

estim

ated

usin

g O

LS. S

tate

15-

17 y

ear o

ld p

opul

atio

n ar

e us

ed a

s weig

hts.

Sta

tes w

ith fe

wer

than

two

obse

rvat

ions

per

per

iod

for a

ny o

f the

dro

pout

rate

mea

sure

s by

race

are

dro

pped

. The

trea

tmen

t effe

ct

repo

rted

abov

e is

the

inte

ract

ion

betw

een

the

treat

men

t sta

te d

umm

y an

d th

e po

st p

erio

d du

mm

y, w

here

the

treat

men

t sta

te d

umm

y is

equa

l to

1 fo

r tre

atm

ent s

tate

s and

the

post

per

iod

dum

my

is eq

ual t

o 1

for t

he y

ears

199

8-20

00, o

ther

wise

bot

h du

mm

ies a

re e

qual

to 0

. Tre

atm

ent s

tate

s are

thos

e st

ates

that

wer

e re

quire

d to

elim

inat

e th

e an

d/or

scor

e op

tion.

The

se in

clude

: LA

, MS,

NE

, NM

, TX

. Tre

atm

ent s

tate

s dro

pped

in th

is re

gres

sion

due

to c

hang

es in

min

imum

age

requ

ired

to d

rop

out o

f sch

ool a

re M

S an

d N

M. C

ontro

l sta

tes a

re th

ose

that

alre

ady

had

high

eno

ugh

stan

dard

s by

1997

. The

se in

clude

: AR,

CA

, CO

, DE

, DC,

FL,

ID, K

Y, M

D, M

O, N

J, N

Y, N

D, O

K, O

R, S

D, U

T, W

A, W

V, W

I. W

ashi

ngto

n D

.C. i

s the

onl

y on

e fr

om th

e co

ntro

l gro

up d

ropp

ed d

ue to

cha

nges

in m

inim

um a

ge re

quire

d to

dro

p ou

t. Co

ntro

l sta

tes d

ropp

ed d

ue to

miss

ing

and

nega

tive

drop

out r

ates

inclu

de: A

R, ID

, KY

, MO

, ND

, NJ,

NY

, SD

, UT,

WA

, WV

.

66

Tab

leG

-23:

Fix

edE

ffec

tsE

stim

ates

ofth

eE

ffec

tof

the

Ref

orm

onD

rop

out

Rat

eE

xcl

udin

gSta

tes

that

Chan

ged

the

Min

imum

Age

Req

uir

edto

eith

erD

rop

Out

orT

ake

the

GE

D(A

llR

aces

)

Ind

epen

den

t V

aria

ble

s10

th-1

2th

Gra

de

Dro

pou

t R

ate

10th

-11t

h G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e12

th G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e

Post

199

7 du

mm

y0.

0125

0.01

610.

003

(0.0

048)

(0.0

059)

(0.0

083)

Scor

e op

tion

chan

ger s

tate

pos

t 199

7 (tr

eatm

ent e

ffect

)-0

.015

1-0

.007

8-0

.032

1(0

.004

5)(0

.006

8)(0

.006

3)Lo

cal u

nem

ploy

men

t rat

e0.

0072

0.01

42-0

.010

1(0

.003

9)(0

.007

7)(0

.007

0)Lo

g of

per

cap

ita in

com

e-0

.011

90.

0316

-0.1

167

(0.0

422)

(0.0

601)

(0.0

543)

Obs

erva

tions

7272

72N

umbe

r of S

tate

s12

1212

Not

e: H

uber

-Whi

te ro

bust

stan

dard

err

ors a

re in

par

enth

eses

(clu

ster

ed b

y st

ate)

. Mod

el is

estim

ated

usin

g O

LS. S

tate

15-

17 y

ear o

ld p

opul

atio

n ar

e us

ed a

s weig

hts.

Stat

es w

ith fe

wer

than

two

obse

rvat

ions

per

per

iod

are

drop

ped.

The

trea

tmen

t effe

ct re

porte

d ab

ove

is th

e in

tera

ctio

n be

twee

n th

e tre

atm

ent s

tate

dum

my

and

the

post

per

iod

dum

my,

whe

re th

e tre

atm

ent s

tate

dum

my

is eq

ual t

o 1

for t

reat

men

t sta

tes a

nd th

e po

st pe

riod

dum

my

is eq

ual t

o 1

for t

he y

ears

199

8-20

00, o

ther

wise

bot

h du

mm

ies a

re e

qual

to 0

. Tre

atm

ent s

tate

s are

thos

e st

ates

that

wer

e re

quire

d to

elim

inat

e th

e an

d/or

scor

e op

tion

and

did

not c

hang

e ag

e re

quire

men

ts d

urin

g pe

riod

unde

r stu

dy.

Thes

e in

clude

: LA

, TX

. Con

trol s

tate

s are

thos

e th

at a

lread

y ha

d hi

gh e

noug

h st

anda

rds b

y 19

97 a

nd d

id n

ot c

hang

e ag

e re

quire

men

ts d

urin

g pe

riod

unde

r stu

dy. T

hese

inclu

de: C

A, C

O, D

E, F

L, ID

, MD

, NJ,

NY

, ND

, WA

, WV

. Con

trol s

tate

s dro

pped

due

to m

issin

g an

d ne

gativ

e dr

opou

t rat

es in

clude

: NJ.

No

treat

men

t sta

tes a

re d

ropp

ed.

67

Tab

leG

-24:

Fix

edE

ffec

tsE

stim

ates

ofth

eE

ffec

tof

the

Ref

orm

onD

rop

out

Rat

eE

xcl

udin

gSta

tes

that

Chan

ged

the

Min

imum

Age

Req

uir

edto

eith

erD

rop

Out

orT

ake

the

GE

D(W

hit

es)

Ind

epen

den

t V

aria

ble

s10

th-1

2th

Gra

de

Dro

pou

t R

ate

10th

-11t

h G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e12

th G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e

Post

199

7 du

mm

y0.

0106

0.01

210.

0061

(0.0

032)

(0.0

069)

(0.0

103)

Scor

e op

tion

chan

ger s

tate

pos

t 199

7 (tr

eatm

ent e

ffect

)-0

.003

80.

0016

-0.0

145

(0.0

010)

(0.0

045)

(0.0

114)

Loca

l une

mpl

oym

ent r

ate

0.00

340.

0065

-0.0

035

(0.0

026)

(0.0

056)

(0.0

058)

Log

of p

er c

apita

inco

me

-0.0

481

-0.0

305

-0.0

856

(0.0

290)

(0.0

430)

(0.0

301)

Obs

erva

tions

4242

42N

umbe

r of S

tate

s12

1212

Not

e: H

uber

-Whi

te ro

bust

stan

dard

err

ors a

re in

par

enth

eses

(clu

ster

ed b

y st

ate)

. Mod

el is

estim

ated

usin

g O

LS. S

tate

15-

17 y

ear o

ld p

opul

atio

n ar

e us

ed a

s weig

hts.

Stat

es w

ith fe

wer

than

two

obse

rvat

ions

per

per

iod

are

drop

ped.

The

trea

tmen

t effe

ct re

porte

d ab

ove

is th

e in

tera

ctio

n be

twee

n th

e tre

atm

ent s

tate

dum

my

and

the

post

per

iod

dum

my,

whe

re th

e tre

atm

ent s

tate

dum

my

is eq

ual t

o 1

for t

reat

men

t sta

tes a

nd th

e po

st pe

riod

dum

my

is eq

ual t

o 1

for t

he y

ears

199

8-20

00, o

ther

wise

bot

h du

mm

ies a

re e

qual

to 0

. Tre

atm

ent s

tate

s are

thos

e st

ates

that

wer

e re

quire

d to

elim

inat

e th

e an

d/or

scor

e op

tion

and

did

not c

hang

e ag

e re

quire

men

ts d

urin

g pe

riod

unde

r stu

dy.

Thes

e in

clude

: LA

, TX

. Con

trol s

tate

s are

thos

e th

at a

lread

y ha

d hi

gh e

noug

h st

anda

rds b

y 19

97 a

nd d

id n

ot c

hang

e ag

e re

quire

men

ts d

urin

g pe

riod

unde

r stu

dy. T

hese

inclu

de: C

A, C

O, D

E, F

L, ID

, MD

, NJ,

NY

, ND

, WA

, WV

. Con

trol s

tate

s dro

pped

due

to m

issin

g an

d ne

gativ

e dr

opou

t rat

es in

clude

: NJ,

NY

, WA

, WV

. No

treat

men

t sta

tes a

re d

ropp

ed.

68

Tab

leG

-25:

Fix

edE

ffec

tsE

stim

ates

ofth

eE

ffec

tof

the

Ref

orm

onD

rop

out

Rat

eE

xcl

udin

gSta

tes

that

Chan

ged

the

Min

imum

Age

Req

uir

edto

eith

erD

rop

Out

orT

ake

the

GE

D(B

lack

s)

Ind

epen

den

t V

aria

ble

s10

th-1

2th

Gra

de

Dro

pou

t R

ate

10th

-11t

h G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e12

th G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e

Post

199

7 du

mm

y0.

0178

0.01

760.

0146

(0.0

107)

(0.0

163)

(0.0

297)

Scor

e op

tion

chan

ger s

tate

pos

t 199

7 (tr

eatm

ent e

ffect

)-0

.012

80.

0016

-0.0

488

(0.0

108)

(0.0

176)

(0.0

188)

Loca

l une

mpl

oym

ent r

ate

-0.0

025

0.00

24-0

.017

1(0

.006

6)(0

.014

0)(0

.020

5)Lo

g of

per

cap

ita in

com

e-0

.131

4-0

.103

1-0

.202

3(0

.073

7)(0

.074

0)(0

.169

6)O

bser

vatio

ns42

4242

Num

ber o

f Sta

tes

1212

12N

ote:

Hub

er-W

hite

robu

st st

anda

rd e

rror

s are

in p

aren

thes

es (c

lust

ered

by

stat

e). M

odel

is es

timat

ed u

sing

OLS

. Sta

te 1

5-17

yea

r old

pop

ulat

ion

are

used

as w

eight

s. St

ates

with

few

er th

an tw

o ob

serv

atio

ns p

er p

erio

d ar

e dr

oppe

d. T

he tr

eatm

ent e

ffect

repo

rted

abov

e is

the

inte

ract

ion

betw

een

the

treat

men

t sta

te d

umm

y an

d th

e po

st p

erio

d du

mm

y, w

here

the

treat

men

t sta

te d

umm

y is

equa

l to

1 fo

r tre

atm

ent s

tate

s and

the

post

perio

d du

mm

y is

equa

l to

1 fo

r the

yea

rs 1

998-

2000

, oth

erw

ise b

oth

dum

mies

are

equ

al to

0. T

reat

men

t sta

tes a

re th

ose

stat

es th

at w

ere

requ

ired

to e

limin

ate

the

and/

or sc

ore

optio

n an

d di

d no

t cha

nge

age

requ

irem

ents

dur

ing

perio

d un

der s

tudy

. Th

ese

inclu

de: L

A, T

X. C

ontro

l sta

tes a

re th

ose

that

alre

ady

had

high

eno

ugh

stan

dard

s by

1997

and

did

not

cha

nge

age

requ

irem

ents

dur

ing

perio

d un

der s

tudy

. The

se in

clude

: CA

, CO

, DE

, FL,

ID, M

D, N

J, N

Y, N

D, W

A, W

V. C

ontro

l sta

tes d

ropp

ed d

ue to

miss

ing

and

nega

tive

drop

out r

ates

inclu

de: N

J, N

Y, W

A, W

V. N

o tre

atm

ent s

tate

s are

dro

pped

.

69

Tab

leG

-26:

Fix

edE

ffec

tsE

stim

ates

ofth

eE

ffec

tof

the

Ref

orm

onD

rop

out

Rat

eE

xcl

udin

gSta

tes

that

Chan

ged

the

Min

imum

Age

Req

uir

edto

eith

erD

rop

Out

orT

ake

the

GE

D(H

ispan

ics)

Ind

epen

den

t V

aria

ble

s10

th-1

2th

Gra

de

Dro

pou

t R

ate

10th

-11t

h G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e12

th G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e

Post

199

7 du

mm

y0.

0147

0.01

160.

0219

(0.0

070)

(0.0

078)

(0.0

069)

Scor

e op

tion

chan

ger s

tate

pos

t 199

7 (tr

eatm

ent e

ffect

)-0

.027

4-0

.015

3-0

.057

5(0

.004

7)(0

.006

0)(0

.005

9)Lo

cal u

nem

ploy

men

t rat

e0.

0123

0.02

21-0

.015

5(0

.005

4)(0

.008

7)(0

.008

2)Lo

g of

per

cap

ita in

com

e-0

.004

80.

0809

-0.2

417

(0.0

663)

(0.0

811)

(0.0

803)

Obs

erva

tions

4242

41N

umbe

r of S

tate

s12

1212

Not

e: H

uber

-Whi

te ro

bust

stan

dard

err

ors a

re in

par

enth

eses

(clu

ster

ed b

y st

ate)

. Mod

el is

estim

ated

usin

g O

LS. S

tate

15-

17 y

ear o

ld p

opul

atio

n ar

e us

ed a

s weig

hts.

Stat

es w

ith fe

wer

than

two

obse

rvat

ions

per

per

iod

are

drop

ped.

The

trea

tmen

t effe

ct re

porte

d ab

ove

is th

e in

tera

ctio

n be

twee

n th

e tre

atm

ent s

tate

dum

my

and

the

post

per

iod

dum

my,

whe

re th

e tre

atm

ent s

tate

dum

my

is eq

ual t

o 1

for t

reat

men

t sta

tes a

nd th

e po

st pe

riod

dum

my

is eq

ual t

o 1

for t

he y

ears

199

8-20

00, o

ther

wise

bot

h du

mm

ies a

re e

qual

to 0

. Tre

atm

ent s

tate

s are

thos

e st

ates

that

wer

e re

quire

d to

elim

inat

e th

e an

d/or

scor

e op

tion

and

did

not c

hang

e ag

e re

quire

men

ts d

urin

g pe

riod

unde

r stu

dy.

Thes

e in

clude

: LA

, TX

. Con

trol s

tate

s are

thos

e th

at a

lread

y ha

d hi

gh e

noug

h st

anda

rds b

y 19

97 a

nd d

id n

ot c

hang

e ag

e re

quire

men

ts d

urin

g pe

riod

unde

r stu

dy. T

hese

inclu

de: C

A, C

O, D

E, F

L, ID

, MD

, NJ,

NY

, ND

, WA

, WV

. Con

trol s

tate

s dro

pped

due

to m

issin

g an

d ne

gativ

e dr

opou

t rat

es in

clude

: NJ,

NY

, WA

, WV

. No

treat

men

t sta

tes a

re d

ropp

ed.

70

Tab

leG

-27:

GL

SF

ixed

Eff

ects

Est

imat

esof

the

Eff

ect

ofth

eR

efor

mon

Dro

pou

tR

ates

Con

trol

ling

for

Age

Req

uir

emen

ts(A

llR

aces

)

Ind

epen

den

t V

aria

ble

s10

th-1

2th

Gra

de

Dro

pou

t R

ate

10th

-11t

h G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e12

th G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e

Post

199

7 du

mm

y0.

0079

0.01

110.

0027

(0.0

022)

(0.0

026)

(0.0

033)

Scor

e op

tion

chan

ger s

tate

pos

t 199

7 (tr

eatm

ent e

ffect

)-0

.012

7-0

.007

7-0

.027

(0.0

021)

(0.0

021)

(0.0

049)

Loca

l une

mpl

oym

ent r

ate

0.00

220.

0039

-0.0

034

(0.0

011)

(0.0

015)

(0.0

017)

Log

of p

er c

apita

inco

me

-0.0

370

-0.0

285

-0.0

680

(0.0

118)

(0.0

135)

(0.0

180)

Min

imum

GE

D a

ge re

quire

men

t is 1

6 0.

0072

0.01

26-0

.002

0(d

umm

y fo

r min

imum

GE

D a

ge re

quire

men

t set

abo

ve 1

8 is

left o

ut)

(0.0

030)

(0.0

041)

(0.0

035)

Min

imum

GE

D a

ge re

quire

men

t is 1

7 0.

0021

0.00

77-0

.013

4(0

.004

4)(0

.005

0)(0

.008

2)M

inim

um G

ED

age

requ

irem

ent i

s 18

0.00

590.

01-0

.004

8(0

.002

5)(0

.003

6)(0

.003

0)M

inim

um sc

hool

leav

ing

age

is 16

0.00

230.

0009

0.00

47(d

umm

y fo

r min

imum

scho

ol le

avin

g ag

e se

t abo

ve 1

7 is

left o

ut)

(0.0

056)

(0.0

041)

(0.0

106)

Min

imum

scho

ol le

avin

g ag

e is

170.

0059

0.00

290.

0097

(0.0

076)

(0.0

073)

(0.0

129)

Obs

erva

tions

144

144

142

Num

ber o

f Sta

tes

2424

24N

ote:

Hub

er-W

hite

robu

st st

anda

rd e

rror

s are

in p

aren

thes

es (c

lust

ered

by

stat

e). M

odel

is es

timat

ed u

sing

GLS

. Sta

te 1

5-17

yea

r old

pop

ulat

ions

are

us

ed a

s weig

hts.

The

treat

men

t effe

ct re

porte

d ab

ove

is th

e in

tera

ctio

n be

twee

n th

e tre

atm

ent s

tate

dum

my

and

the

post

199

7 du

mm

y, w

here

the

treat

men

t sta

te d

umm

y is

equa

l to

1 fo

r tre

atm

ent s

tate

s and

the

post

199

7 du

mm

y is

equa

l to

1 fo

r the

yea

rs 1

998-

2000

, oth

erw

ise b

oth

dum

mies

ar

e eq

ual t

o 0.

Sta

tes w

ith fe

wer

than

two

obse

rvat

ions

per

per

iod

are

drop

ped.

Tre

atm

ent s

tate

s are

thos

e st

ates

that

wer

e re

quire

d to

elim

inat

e th

e an

d/or

scor

e op

tion.

The

se in

clude

: LA

, MS,

NE

, NM

, TX

. Con

trol s

tate

s are

thos

e th

at a

lread

y ha

d hi

gh e

noug

h st

anda

rds b

y 19

97. T

hese

inclu

de:

AR,

CA

, CO

, DE

, DC,

FL,

ID, K

Y, M

D, M

O, N

Y, N

D, O

K, O

R, S

D, U

T, W

A, W

V, W

I. C

ontro

l sta

tes d

ropp

ed d

ue to

miss

ing

and

nega

tive

drop

out r

ates

inclu

de: N

J. N

o tre

atm

ent s

tate

s are

dro

pped

.

71

Tab

leG

-28:

GL

SF

ixed

Eff

ects

Est

imat

esof

the

Eff

ect

ofth

eR

efor

mon

Dro

pou

tR

ates

Con

trol

ling

for

Age

Req

uir

emen

ts(W

hit

es)

Ind

epen

den

t V

aria

ble

s10

th-1

2th

Gra

de

Dro

pou

t R

ate

10th

-11t

h G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e12

th G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e

Post

199

7 du

mm

y0.

007

0.00

860.

0008

(0.0

019)

(0.0

022)

(0.0

035)

Scor

e op

tion

chan

ger s

tate

pos

t 199

7 (tr

eatm

ent e

ffect

)-0

.004

20.

0005

-0.0

118

(0.0

015)

(0.0

017)

(0.0

041)

Loca

l une

mpl

oym

ent r

ate

0.00

380.

0051

-0.0

007

(0.0

010)

(0.0

016)

(0.0

018)

Log

of p

er c

apita

inco

me

-0.0

297

-0.0

201

-0.0

528

(0.0

100)

(0.0

124)

(0.0

181)

Min

imum

GE

D a

ge re

quire

men

t is 1

6 0.

0039

0.00

87-0

.004

4(d

umm

y fo

r min

imum

GE

D a

ge re

quire

men

t set

abo

ve 1

8 is

left o

ut)

(0.0

024)

(0.0

033)

(0.0

033)

Min

imum

GE

D a

ge re

quire

men

t is 1

7 0.

0054

0.00

92-0

.013

8(0

.005

1)(0

.007

1)(0

.010

8)M

inim

um G

ED

age

requ

irem

ent i

s 18

0.00

230.

0046

-0.0

036

(0.0

012)

(0.0

021)

(0.0

022)

Min

imum

scho

ol le

avin

g ag

e is

160.

0159

0.01

590.

0114

(dum

my

for m

inim

um sc

hool

leav

ing

age

set a

bove

17

is lef

t out

)(0

.008

9)(0

.012

9)(0

.013

6)M

inim

um sc

hool

leav

ing

age

is 17

0.01

950.

0194

0.00

1(0

.010

6)(0

.015

1)(0

.018

3)O

bser

vatio

ns84

8382

Num

ber o

f Sta

tes

1414

14N

ote:

Hub

er-W

hite

robu

st st

anda

rd e

rror

s are

in p

aren

thes

es (c

lust

ered

by

stat

e). M

odel

is es

timat

ed u

sing

GLS

. Sta

te 1

5-17

yea

r old

pop

ulat

ions

are

us

ed a

s weig

hts.

The

treat

men

t effe

ct re

porte

d ab

ove

is th

e in

tera

ctio

n be

twee

n th

e tre

atm

ent s

tate

dum

my

and

the

post

199

7 du

mm

y, w

here

the

treat

men

t sta

te d

umm

y is

equa

l to

1 fo

r tre

atm

ent s

tate

s and

the

post

199

7 du

mm

y is

equa

l to

1 fo

r the

yea

rs 1

998-

2000

, oth

erw

ise b

oth

dum

mies

ar

e eq

ual t

o 0.

Sta

tes w

ith fe

wer

than

two

obse

rvat

ions

per

per

iod

for a

ny o

f the

dro

pout

rate

mea

sure

s by

race

are

dro

pped

. Tre

atm

ent s

tate

s are

th

ose

stat

es th

at w

ere

requ

ired

to e

limin

ate

the

and/

or sc

ore

optio

n. T

hese

inclu

de: L

A, M

S, N

E, N

M, T

X. C

ontro

l sta

tes a

re th

ose

that

alre

ady

had

high

eno

ugh

stan

dard

s by

1997

. The

se in

clude

: AR,

CA

, CO

, DE

, DC,

FL,

ID, K

Y, M

D, M

O, N

Y, N

D, O

K, O

R, S

D, U

T, W

A, W

V, W

I. C

ontro

l st

ates

dro

pped

due

to m

issin

g an

d ne

gativ

e dr

opou

t rat

es in

clude

: AR,

ID, K

Y, M

O, N

D, N

J, N

Y, S

D, U

T, W

A, W

V. N

o tre

atm

ent s

tate

s are

dr

oppe

d.

72

Tab

leG

-29:

GL

SF

ixed

Eff

ects

Est

imat

esof

the

Eff

ect

ofth

eR

efor

mon

Dro

pou

tR

ates

Con

trol

ling

for

Age

Req

uir

emen

ts(B

lack

s)

Ind

epen

den

t V

aria

ble

s10

th-1

2th

Gra

de

Dro

pou

t R

ate

10th

-11t

h G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e12

th G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e

Post

199

7 du

mm

y0.

0172

0.01

40.

0136

(0.0

056)

(0.0

082)

(0.0

116)

Scor

e op

tion

chan

ger s

tate

pos

t 199

7 (tr

eatm

ent e

ffect

)-0

.016

-0.0

071

-0.0

386

(0.0

043)

(0.0

061)

(0.0

107)

Loca

l une

mpl

oym

ent r

ate

-0.0

065

-0.0

025

0.00

30(0

.003

3)(0

.005

2)(0

.005

3)Lo

g of

per

cap

ita in

com

e-0

.157

7-0

.097

6-0

.043

7(0

.031

1)(0

.044

1)(0

.054

4)M

inim

um G

ED

age

requ

irem

ent i

s 16

0.05

740.

0676

0.04

93(d

umm

y fo

r min

imum

GE

D a

ge re

quire

men

t set

abo

ve 1

8 is

left o

ut)

(0.0

143)

(0.0

217)

(0.0

122)

Min

imum

GE

D a

ge re

quire

men

t is 1

7 0.

023

0.04

06-0

.008

3(0

.022

2)(0

.035

2)(0

.019

9)M

inim

um G

ED

age

requ

irem

ent i

s 18

0.05

0.05

520.

0498

(0.0

133)

(0.0

203)

(0.0

107)

Min

imum

scho

ol le

avin

g ag

e is

160.

0395

0.06

210.

0334

(dum

my

for m

inim

um sc

hool

leav

ing

age

set a

bove

17

is lef

t out

)(0

.016

0)(0

.029

1)(0

.020

6)M

inim

um sc

hool

leav

ing

age

is 17

0.02

420.

0494

-0.0

04(0

.024

8)(0

.034

3)(0

.024

0)O

bser

vatio

ns84

8482

Num

ber o

f Sta

tes

1414

14N

ote:

Hub

er-W

hite

robu

st st

anda

rd e

rror

s are

in p

aren

thes

es (c

lust

ered

by

stat

e). M

odel

is es

timat

ed u

sing

GLS

. Sta

te 1

5-17

yea

r old

pop

ulat

ions

are

us

ed a

s weig

hts.

The

treat

men

t effe

ct re

porte

d ab

ove

is th

e in

tera

ctio

n be

twee

n th

e tre

atm

ent s

tate

dum

my

and

the

post

199

7 du

mm

y, w

here

the

treat

men

t sta

te d

umm

y is

equa

l to

1 fo

r tre

atm

ent s

tate

s and

the

post

199

7 du

mm

y is

equa

l to

1 fo

r the

yea

rs 1

998-

2000

, oth

erw

ise b

oth

dum

mies

ar

e eq

ual t

o 0.

Sta

tes w

ith fe

wer

than

two

obse

rvat

ions

per

per

iod

for a

ny o

f the

dro

pout

rate

mea

sure

s by

race

are

dro

pped

. Tre

atm

ent s

tate

s are

th

ose

stat

es th

at w

ere

requ

ired

to e

limin

ate

the

and/

or sc

ore

optio

n. T

hese

inclu

de: L

A, M

S, N

E, N

M, T

X. C

ontro

l sta

tes a

re th

ose

that

alre

ady

had

high

eno

ugh

stan

dard

s by

1997

. The

se in

clude

: AR,

CA

, CO

, DE

, DC,

FL,

ID, K

Y, M

D, M

O, N

Y, N

D, O

K, O

R, S

D, U

T, W

A, W

V, W

I. C

ontro

l st

ates

dro

pped

due

to m

issin

g an

d ne

gativ

e dr

opou

t rat

es in

clude

: AR,

ID, K

Y, M

O, N

D, N

J, N

Y, S

D, U

T, W

A, W

V. N

o tre

atm

ent s

tate

s are

dr

oppe

d.

73

Tab

leG

-30:

GL

SF

ixed

Eff

ects

Est

imat

esof

the

Eff

ect

ofth

eR

efor

mon

Dro

pou

tR

ates

Con

trol

ling

for

Age

Req

uir

emen

ts(H

ispan

ics)

Ind

epen

den

t V

aria

ble

s10

th-1

2th

Gra

de

Dro

pou

t R

ate

10th

-11t

h G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e12

th G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e

Post

199

7 du

mm

y0.

013

0.01

480.

0258

(0.0

048)

(0.0

063)

(0.0

086)

Scor

e op

tion

chan

ger s

tate

pos

t 199

7 (tr

eatm

ent e

ffect

)-0

.026

5-0

.015

5-0

.064

4(0

.004

6)(0

.005

5)(0

.006

5)Lo

cal u

nem

ploy

men

t rat

e0.

0118

0.02

31-0

.004

6(0

.002

7)(0

.003

6)(0

.003

8)Lo

g of

per

cap

ita in

com

e-0

.007

50.

0709

-0.1

568

(0.0

293)

(0.0

367)

(0.0

421)

Min

imum

GE

D a

ge re

quire

men

t is 1

6 0.

0290

0.04

540.

0143

(dum

my

for m

inim

um G

ED

age

requ

irem

ent s

et a

bove

18

is lef

t out

)(0

.017

4)(0

.025

2)(0

.017

1)M

inim

um G

ED

age

requ

irem

ent i

s 17

0.03

420.

0526

0.00

86(0

.019

5)(0

.027

7)(0

.018

8)M

inim

um G

ED

age

requ

irem

ent i

s 18

0.04

070.

054

0.01

73(0

.015

5)(0

.023

0)(0

.014

7)M

inim

um sc

hool

leav

ing

age

is 16

-0.0

027

0.00

62-0

.018

1(d

umm

y fo

r min

imum

scho

ol le

avin

g ag

e se

t abo

ve 1

7 is

left o

ut)

(0.0

114)

(0.0

136)

(0.0

101)

Min

imum

scho

ol le

avin

g ag

e is

170.

0706

0.08

77-0

.018

9(0

.014

7)(0

.022

9)(0

.042

6)O

bser

vatio

ns84

8382

Num

ber o

f Sta

tes

1414

14N

ote:

Hub

er-W

hite

robu

st st

anda

rd e

rror

s are

in p

aren

thes

es (c

lust

ered

by

stat

e). M

odel

is es

timat

ed u

sing

GLS

. Sta

te 1

5-17

yea

r old

pop

ulat

ions

are

us

ed a

s weig

hts.

The

treat

men

t effe

ct re

porte

d ab

ove

is th

e in

tera

ctio

n be

twee

n th

e tre

atm

ent s

tate

dum

my

and

the

post

199

7 du

mm

y, w

here

the

treat

men

t sta

te d

umm

y is

equa

l to

1 fo

r tre

atm

ent s

tate

s and

the

post

199

7 du

mm

y is

equa

l to

1 fo

r the

yea

rs 1

998-

2000

, oth

erw

ise b

oth

dum

mies

ar

e eq

ual t

o 0.

Sta

tes w

ith fe

wer

than

two

obse

rvat

ions

per

per

iod

for a

ny o

f the

dro

pout

rate

mea

sure

s by

race

are

dro

pped

. Tre

atm

ent s

tate

s are

th

ose

stat

es th

at w

ere

requ

ired

to e

limin

ate

the

and/

or sc

ore

optio

n. T

hese

inclu

de: L

A, M

S, N

E, N

M, T

X. C

ontro

l sta

tes a

re th

ose

that

alre

ady

had

high

eno

ugh

stan

dard

s by

1997

. The

se in

clude

: AR,

CA

, CO

, DE

, DC,

FL,

ID, K

Y, M

D, M

O, N

Y, N

D, O

K, O

R, S

D, U

T, W

A, W

V, W

I. C

ontro

l st

ates

dro

pped

due

to m

issin

g an

d ne

gativ

e dr

opou

t rat

es in

clude

: AR,

ID, K

Y, M

O, N

D, N

J, N

Y, S

D, U

T, W

A, W

V. N

o tre

atm

ent s

tate

s are

dr

oppe

d.

74

Tab

leG

-31:

GL

SF

ixed

Eff

ects

Est

imat

esof

the

Eff

ect

ofth

eR

efor

mon

Dro

pou

tR

ates

Con

trol

ling

for

Age

Req

uir

emen

tsan

dU

sing

Pan

elSp

ecifi

cA

R-1

Auto

corr

elat

ion

Str

uct

ure

(All

Rac

es)

Ind

epen

den

t V

aria

ble

s10

th-1

2th

Gra

de

Dro

pou

t R

ate

10th

-11t

h G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e12

th G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e

Post

199

7 du

mm

y0.

0076

0.01

220.

0018

(0.0

019)

(0.0

019)

(0.0

024)

Scor

e op

tion

chan

ger s

tate

pos

t 199

7 (tr

eatm

ent e

ffect

)-0

.013

7-0

.009

-0.0

283

(0.0

017)

(0.0

019)

(0.0

038)

Loca

l une

mpl

oym

ent r

ate

0.00

270.

0049

-0.0

068

(0.0

010)

(0.0

012)

(0.0

016)

Log

of p

er c

apita

inco

me

-0.0

283

-0.0

207

-0.0

925

(0.0

106)

(0.0

106)

(0.0

135)

Min

imum

GE

D a

ge re

quire

men

t is 1

6 0.

0077

0.01

50-0

.003

2(d

umm

y fo

r min

imum

GE

D a

ge re

quire

men

t set

abo

ve 1

8 is

left o

ut)

(0.0

026)

(0.0

019)

(0.0

023)

Min

imum

GE

D a

ge re

quire

men

t is 1

7 0.

0036

0.01

29-0

.008

5(0

.004

2)(0

.003

6)(0

.007

0)M

inim

um G

ED

age

requ

irem

ent i

s 18

0.00

520.

0119

-0.0

062

(0.0

024)

(0.0

011)

(0.0

012)

Min

imum

scho

ol le

avin

g ag

e is

160.

005

0.00

320.

0067

(dum

my

for m

inim

um sc

hool

leav

ing

age

set a

bove

17

is lef

t out

)(0

.005

4)(0

.005

0)(0

.010

2)M

inim

um sc

hool

leav

ing

age

is 17

0.01

210.

0098

0.02

18(0

.007

5)(0

.008

2)(0

.012

5)O

bser

vatio

ns14

414

414

2N

umbe

r of S

tate

s24

2424

Not

e: H

uber

-Whi

te ro

bust

stan

dard

err

ors a

re in

par

enth

eses

(clu

ster

ed b

y st

ate)

. Mod

el is

estim

ated

usin

g G

LS u

sing

pane

l spe

cific

AR-

1 au

toco

rrela

tion

stru

ctur

e. St

ate

15-1

7 ye

ar o

ld p

opul

atio

ns a

re u

sed

as w

eight

s. Th

e tre

atm

ent e

ffect

repo

rted

abov

e is

the

inte

ract

ion

betw

een

the

treat

men

t sta

te d

umm

y an

d th

e po

st 1

997

dum

my,

whe

re th

e tre

atm

ent s

tate

dum

my

is eq

ual t

o 1

for t

reat

men

t sta

tes a

nd th

e po

st 1

997

dum

my

is eq

ual t

o 1

for t

he y

ears

199

8-20

00, o

ther

wise

bot

h du

mm

ies a

re e

qual

to 0

. Sta

tes w

ith fe

wer

than

two

obse

rvat

ions

per

per

iod

are

drop

ped.

Tr

eatm

ent s

tate

s are

thos

e st

ates

that

wer

e re

quire

d to

elim

inat

e th

e an

d/or

scor

e op

tion.

The

se in

clude

: LA

, MS,

NE

, NM

, TX

. Con

trol s

tate

s are

th

ose

that

alre

ady

had

high

eno

ugh

stan

dard

s by

1997

. The

se in

clude

: AR,

CA

, CO

, DE

, DC,

FL,

ID, K

Y, M

D, M

O, N

Y, N

D, O

K, O

R, S

D, U

T,

WA

, WV

, WI.

Con

trol s

tate

s dro

pped

due

to m

issin

g an

d ne

gativ

e dr

opou

t rat

es in

clude

: NJ.

No

treat

men

t sta

tes a

re d

ropp

ed.

75

Tab

leG

-32:

GL

SF

ixed

Eff

ects

Est

imat

esof

the

Eff

ect

ofth

eR

efor

mon

Dro

pou

tR

ates

Con

trol

ling

for

Age

Req

uir

emen

tsan

dU

sing

Pan

elSp

ecifi

cA

R-1

Auto

corr

elat

ion

Str

uct

ure

(Whit

es)

Ind

epen

den

t V

aria

ble

s10

th-1

2th

Gra

de

Dro

pou

t R

ate

10th

-11t

h G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e12

th G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e

Post

199

7 du

mm

y0.

0076

0.00

930.

0042

(0.0

017)

(0.0

019)

(0.0

035)

Scor

e op

tion

chan

ger s

tate

pos

t 199

7 (tr

eatm

ent e

ffect

)-0

.005

1-0

.000

5-0

.017

(0.0

012)

(0.0

015)

(0.0

033)

Loca

l une

mpl

oym

ent r

ate

0.00

340.

0041

-0.0

030

(0.0

010)

(0.0

015)

(0.0

016)

Log

of p

er c

apita

inco

me

-0.0

312

-0.0

251

-0.0

638

(0.0

091)

(0.0

113)

(0.0

177)

Min

imum

GE

D a

ge re

quire

men

t is 1

6 0.

0042

0.00

93-0

.005

1(d

umm

y fo

r min

imum

GE

D a

ge re

quire

men

t set

abo

ve 1

8 is

left o

ut)

(0.0

021)

(0.0

030)

(0.0

037)

Min

imum

GE

D a

ge re

quire

men

t is 1

7 0.

0049

0.00

93-0

.025

1(0

.004

4)(0

.005

5)(0

.009

5)M

inim

um G

ED

age

requ

irem

ent i

s 18

0.00

220.

0045

-0.0

033

(0.0

009)

(0.0

020)

(0.0

027)

Min

imum

scho

ol le

avin

g ag

e is

160.

0179

0.01

930.

0122

(dum

my

for m

inim

um sc

hool

leav

ing

age

set a

bove

17

is lef

t out

)(0

.009

4)(0

.011

8)(0

.007

5)M

inim

um sc

hool

leav

ing

age

is 17

0.02

110.

0228

-0.0

076

(0.0

106)

(0.0

129)

(0.0

127)

Obs

erva

tions

8483

82N

umbe

r of S

tate

s14

1414

Not

e: H

uber

-Whi

te ro

bust

stan

dard

err

ors a

re in

par

enth

eses

(clu

ster

ed b

y st

ate)

. Mod

el is

estim

ated

usin

g G

LS u

sing

pane

l spe

cific

AR-

1 au

toco

rrela

tion

stru

ctur

e. St

ate

15-1

7 ye

ar o

ld p

opul

atio

ns a

re u

sed

as w

eight

s. Th

e tre

atm

ent e

ffect

repo

rted

abov

e is

the

inte

ract

ion

betw

een

the

treat

men

t sta

te d

umm

y an

d th

e po

st 1

997

dum

my,

whe

re th

e tre

atm

ent s

tate

dum

my

is eq

ual t

o 1

for t

reat

men

t sta

tes a

nd th

e po

st 1

997

dum

my

is eq

ual t

o 1

for t

he y

ears

199

8-20

00, o

ther

wise

bot

h du

mm

ies a

re e

qual

to 0

. Sta

tes w

ith fe

wer

than

two

obse

rvat

ions

per

per

iod

for a

ny o

f the

dr

opou

t rat

e m

easu

res b

y ra

ce a

re d

ropp

ed. T

reat

men

t sta

tes a

re th

ose

stat

es th

at w

ere

requ

ired

to e

limin

ate

the

and/

or sc

ore

optio

n. T

hese

inclu

de:

LA, M

S, N

E, N

M, T

X. C

ontro

l sta

tes a

re th

ose

that

alre

ady

had

high

eno

ugh

stan

dard

s by

1997

. The

se in

clude

: AR,

CA

, CO

, DE

, DC,

FL,

ID, K

Y,

MD

, MO

, NY

, ND

, OK

, OR,

SD

, UT,

WA

, WV

, WI.

Cont

rol s

tate

s dro

pped

due

to m

issin

g an

d ne

gativ

e dr

opou

t rat

es in

clude

: AR,

ID, K

Y, M

O,

ND

, NJ,

NY

, SD

, UT,

WA

, WV

. No

treat

men

t sta

tes a

re d

ropp

ed.

76

Tab

leG

-33:

GL

SF

ixed

Eff

ects

Est

imat

esof

the

Eff

ect

ofth

eR

efor

mon

Dro

pou

tR

ates

Con

trol

ling

for

Age

Req

uir

emen

tsan

dU

sing

Pan

elSp

ecifi

cA

R-1

Auto

corr

elat

ion

Str

uct

ure

(Bla

cks)

Ind

epen

den

t V

aria

ble

s10

th-1

2th

Gra

de

Dro

pou

t R

ate

10th

-11t

h G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e12

th G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e

Post

199

7 du

mm

y0.

0169

0.01

140.

013

(0.0

041)

(0.0

073)

(0.0

111)

Scor

e op

tion

chan

ger s

tate

pos

t 199

7 (tr

eatm

ent e

ffect

)-0

.015

6-0

.008

9-0

.040

4(0

.003

4)(0

.005

8)(0

.009

9)Lo

cal u

nem

ploy

men

t rat

e-0

.007

5-0

.006

50.

0014

(0.0

031)

(0.0

049)

(0.0

053)

Log

of p

er c

apita

inco

me

-0.1

653

-0.1

084

-0.0

613

(0.0

278)

(0.0

415)

(0.0

540)

Min

imum

GE

D a

ge re

quire

men

t is 1

6 0.

0622

0.07

320.

0457

(dum

my

for m

inim

um G

ED

age

requ

irem

ent s

et a

bove

18

is lef

t out

)(0

.012

5)(0

.018

9)(0

.012

5)M

inim

um G

ED

age

requ

irem

ent i

s 17

0.03

090.

0401

-0.0

16(0

.020

4)(0

.031

4)(0

.018

5)M

inim

um G

ED

age

requ

irem

ent i

s 18

0.05

320.

0603

0.04

73(0

.011

3)(0

.017

7)(0

.010

6)M

inim

um sc

hool

leav

ing

age

is 16

0.04

950.

0772

0.02

92(d

umm

y fo

r min

imum

scho

ol le

avin

g ag

e se

t abo

ve 1

7 is

left o

ut)

(0.0

174)

(0.0

279)

(0.0

146)

Min

imum

scho

ol le

avin

g ag

e is

170.

0388

0.06

06-0

.008

3(0

.022

1)(0

.026

8)(0

.019

5)O

bser

vatio

ns84

8482

Num

ber o

f Sta

tes

1414

14N

ote:

Hub

er-W

hite

robu

st st

anda

rd e

rror

s are

in p

aren

thes

es (c

lust

ered

by

stat

e). M

odel

is es

timat

ed u

sing

GLS

usin

g pa

nel s

pecif

ic A

R-1

auto

corr

elatio

n st

ruct

ure.

Stat

e 15

-17

year

old

pop

ulat

ions

are

use

d as

weig

hts.

The

treat

men

t effe

ct re

porte

d ab

ove

is th

e in

tera

ctio

n be

twee

n th

e tre

atm

ent s

tate

dum

my

and

the

post

199

7 du

mm

y, w

here

the

treat

men

t sta

te d

umm

y is

equa

l to

1 fo

r tre

atm

ent s

tate

s and

the

post

199

7 du

mm

y is

equa

l to

1 fo

r the

yea

rs 1

998-

2000

, oth

erw

ise b

oth

dum

mies

are

equ

al to

0. S

tate

s with

few

er th

an tw

o ob

serv

atio

ns p

er p

erio

d fo

r any

of t

he

drop

out r

ate

mea

sure

s by

race

are

dro

pped

. Tre

atm

ent s

tate

s are

thos

e st

ates

that

wer

e re

quire

d to

elim

inat

e th

e an

d/or

scor

e op

tion.

The

se

inclu

de: L

A, M

S, N

E, N

M, T

X. C

ontro

l sta

tes a

re th

ose

that

alre

ady

had

high

eno

ugh

stan

dard

s by

1997

. The

se in

clude

: AR,

CA

, CO

, DE

, DC,

FL,

ID

, KY

, MD

, MO

, NY

, ND

, OK

, OR,

SD

, UT,

WA

, WV

, WI.

Cont

rol s

tate

s dro

pped

due

to m

issin

g an

d ne

gativ

e dr

opou

t rat

es in

clude

: AR,

ID,

KY

, MO

, ND

, NJ,

NY

, SD

, UT,

WA

, WV

. No

treat

men

t sta

tes a

re d

ropp

ed.

77

Tab

leG

-34:

GL

SF

ixed

Eff

ects

Est

imat

esof

the

Eff

ect

ofth

eR

efor

mon

Dro

pou

tR

ates

Con

trol

ling

for

Age

Req

uir

emen

tsan

dU

sing

Pan

elSp

ecifi

cA

R-1

Auto

corr

elat

ion

Str

uct

ure

(His

pan

ics)

Ind

epen

den

t V

aria

ble

s10

th-1

2th

Gra

de

Dro

pou

t R

ate

10th

-11t

h G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e12

th G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e

Post

199

7 du

mm

y0.

0093

0.01

0.02

44(0

.004

3)(0

.005

6)(0

.008

3)Sc

ore

optio

n ch

ange

r sta

te p

ost 1

997

(trea

tmen

t effe

ct)

-0.0

249

-0.0

115

-0.0

645

(0.0

036)

(0.0

047)

(0.0

058)

Loca

l une

mpl

oym

ent r

ate

0.01

120.

0198

-0.0

057

(0.0

022)

(0.0

030)

(0.0

035)

Log

of p

er c

apita

inco

me

-0.0

025

0.05

17-0

.153

9(0

.026

1)(0

.032

7)(0

.041

5)M

inim

um G

ED

age

requ

irem

ent i

s 16

0.02

670.

0356

0.01

27(d

umm

y fo

r min

imum

GE

D a

ge re

quire

men

t set

abo

ve 1

8 is

left o

ut)

(0.0

163)

(0.0

189)

(0.0

169)

Min

imum

GE

D a

ge re

quire

men

t is 1

7 0.

0314

0.04

790.

0047

(0.0

185)

(0.0

217)

(0.0

185)

Min

imum

GE

D a

ge re

quire

men

t is 1

8 0.

0418

0.05

770.

0173

(0.0

147)

(0.0

167)

(0.0

146)

Min

imum

scho

ol le

avin

g ag

e is

16-0

.008

6-0

.005

3-0

.019

1(d

umm

y fo

r min

imum

scho

ol le

avin

g ag

e se

t abo

ve 1

7 is

left o

ut)

(0.0

092)

(0.0

106)

(0.0

098)

Min

imum

scho

ol le

avin

g ag

e is

170.

0713

0.09

11-0

.037

4(0

.008

7)(0

.015

8)(0

.035

3)O

bser

vatio

ns84

8382

Num

ber o

f Sta

tes

1414

14N

ote:

Hub

er-W

hite

robu

st st

anda

rd e

rror

s are

in p

aren

thes

es (c

lust

ered

by

stat

e). M

odel

is es

timat

ed u

sing

GLS

usin

g pa

nel s

pecif

ic A

R-1

auto

corr

elatio

n st

ruct

ure.

Stat

e 15

-17

year

old

pop

ulat

ions

are

use

d as

weig

hts.

The

treat

men

t effe

ct re

porte

d ab

ove

is th

e in

tera

ctio

n be

twee

n th

e tre

atm

ent s

tate

dum

my

and

the

post

199

7 du

mm

y, w

here

the

treat

men

t sta

te d

umm

y is

equa

l to

1 fo

r tre

atm

ent s

tate

s and

the

post

199

7 du

mm

y is

equa

l to

1 fo

r the

yea

rs 1

998-

2000

, oth

erw

ise b

oth

dum

mies

are

equ

al to

0. S

tate

s with

few

er th

an tw

o ob

serv

atio

ns p

er p

erio

d fo

r any

of t

he

drop

out r

ate

mea

sure

s by

race

are

dro

pped

. Tre

atm

ent s

tate

s are

thos

e st

ates

that

wer

e re

quire

d to

elim

inat

e th

e an

d/or

scor

e op

tion.

The

se in

clude

: LA

, MS,

NE

, NM

, TX

. Con

trol s

tate

s are

thos

e th

at a

lread

y ha

d hi

gh e

noug

h st

anda

rds b

y 19

97. T

hese

inclu

de: A

R, C

A, C

O, D

E, D

C, F

L, ID

, KY

, M

D, M

O, N

Y, N

D, O

K, O

R, S

D, U

T, W

A, W

V, W

I. Co

ntro

l sta

tes d

ropp

ed d

ue to

miss

ing

and

nega

tive

drop

out r

ates

inclu

de: A

R, ID

, KY

, MO

, N

D, N

J, N

Y, S

D, U

T, W

A, W

V. N

o tre

atm

ent s

tate

s are

dro

pped

.

78

Tab

leG

-35:

Diff

eren

ce-i

n-D

iffer

ence

Est

imat

esof

the

Eff

ect

ofth

eR

efor

mon

Dro

pou

tR

ates

Con

trol

ling

for

Age

Req

uir

emen

tsan

dR

estr

icti

ng

Con

trol

Gro

up

toC

alif

ornia

and

Flo

rida

(Hig

hIm

mig

rant

Sta

tes)

(All

Rac

es)

Ind

epen

den

t V

aria

ble

s10

th-1

2th

Gra

de

Dro

pou

t R

ate

10th

-11t

h G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e12

th G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e

Scor

e op

tion

chan

ger s

tate

-0.0

16-0

.016

6-0

.013

6(0

.012

7)(0

.014

6)(0

.009

1)Sc

ore

optio

n ch

ange

r sta

te p

ost 1

997

(trea

tmen

t effe

ct)

-0.0

069

0.00

56-0

.036

5(0

.006

3)(0

.012

2)(0

.013

2)Po

st 1

997

dum

my

-0.0

086

-0.0

126

0.00

07(0

.005

5)(0

.012

1)(0

.011

8)Co

nsta

nt0.

1214

0.12

900.

1014

(0.0

111)

(0.0

132)

(0.0

050)

Obs

erva

tions

4242

42N

umbe

r of S

tate

s7

77

Not

e: H

uber

-Whi

te ro

bust

stan

dard

err

ors a

re in

par

enth

eses

(clu

ster

ed b

y st

ate)

. Mod

el is

estim

ated

usin

g O

LS. S

tate

15-

17 y

ear o

ld p

opul

atio

ns a

re

used

as w

eight

s. Th

e tre

atm

ent e

ffect

repo

rted

abov

e is

the

inte

ract

ion

betw

een

the

treat

men

t sta

te d

umm

y an

d th

e po

st 1

997

dum

my,

whe

re th

e tre

atm

ent s

tate

dum

my

is eq

ual t

o 1

for t

reat

men

t sta

tes a

nd th

e po

st 1

997

dum

my

is eq

ual t

o 1

for t

he y

ears

199

8-20

00, o

ther

wise

bot

h du

mm

ies

are

equa

l to

0. S

tate

s with

few

er th

an tw

o ob

serv

atio

ns p

er p

erio

d ar

e dr

oppe

d. T

reat

men

t sta

tes a

re th

ose

stat

es th

at w

ere

requ

ired

to e

limin

ate

the

and/

or sc

ore

optio

n. T

hese

inclu

de: L

A, M

S, N

E, N

M, T

X. C

ontro

l sta

tes a

re th

ose

that

alre

ady

had

high

eno

ugh

stan

dard

s by

1997

and

hav

e lar

ge

imm

igra

nt p

opul

atio

ns. T

hese

inclu

de: C

A a

nd F

L.

79

Tab

leG

-36:

Diff

eren

ce-i

n-D

iffer

ence

Est

imat

esof

the

Eff

ect

ofth

eR

efor

mon

Dro

pou

tR

ates

Con

trol

ling

for

Age

Req

uir

emen

tsan

dR

estr

icti

ng

Con

trol

Gro

up

toC

alif

ornia

and

Flo

rida

(Hig

hIm

mig

rant

Sta

tes)

(Whit

es)

Ind

epen

den

t V

aria

ble

s10

th-1

2th

Gra

de

Dro

pou

t R

ate

10th

-11t

h G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e12

th G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e

Scor

e op

tion

chan

ger s

tate

-0.0

216

-0.0

192

-0.0

26(0

.020

5)(0

.025

1)(0

.009

9)Sc

ore

optio

n ch

ange

r sta

te p

ost 1

997

(trea

tmen

t effe

ct)

-0.0

020.

0043

-0.0

146

(0.0

038)

(0.0

108)

(0.0

148)

Post

199

7 du

mm

y-0

.007

2-0

.008

0-0

.006

5(0

.003

7)(0

.010

8)(0

.014

2)Co

nsta

nt0.

1008

0.10

770.

0830

(0.0

193)

(0.0

238)

(0.0

073)

Obs

erva

tions

4242

42N

umbe

r of S

tate

s7

77

Not

e: H

uber

-Whi

te ro

bust

stan

dard

err

ors a

re in

par

enth

eses

(clu

ster

ed b

y st

ate)

. Mod

el is

estim

ated

usin

g O

LS. S

tate

15-

17 y

ear o

ld p

opul

atio

ns a

re

used

as w

eight

s. Th

e tre

atm

ent e

ffect

repo

rted

abov

e is

the

inte

ract

ion

betw

een

the

treat

men

t sta

te d

umm

y an

d th

e po

st 1

997

dum

my,

whe

re th

e tre

atm

ent s

tate

dum

my

is eq

ual t

o 1

for t

reat

men

t sta

tes a

nd th

e po

st 1

997

dum

my

is eq

ual t

o 1

for t

he y

ears

199

8-20

00, o

ther

wise

bot

h du

mm

ies

are

equa

l to

0. S

tate

s with

few

er th

an tw

o ob

serv

atio

ns p

er p

erio

d ar

e dr

oppe

d. T

reat

men

t sta

tes a

re th

ose

stat

es th

at w

ere

requ

ired

to e

limin

ate

the

and/

or sc

ore

optio

n. T

hese

inclu

de: L

A, M

S, N

E, N

M, T

X. C

ontro

l sta

tes a

re th

ose

that

alre

ady

had

high

eno

ugh

stan

dard

s by

1997

and

hav

e lar

ge

imm

igra

nt p

opul

atio

ns. T

hese

inclu

de: C

A a

nd F

L.

80

Tab

leG

-37:

Diff

eren

ce-i

n-D

iffer

ence

Est

imat

esof

the

Eff

ect

ofth

eR

efor

mon

Dro

pou

tR

ates

Con

trol

ling

for

Age

Req

uir

emen

tsan

dR

estr

icti

ng

Con

trol

Gro

up

toC

alif

ornia

and

Flo

rida

(Hig

hIm

mig

rant

Sta

tes)

(Bla

cks)

Ind

epen

den

t V

aria

ble

s10

th-1

2th

Gra

de

Dro

pou

t R

ate

10th

-11t

h G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e12

th G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e

Scor

e op

tion

chan

ger s

tate

-0.0

31-0

.041

1-0

.001

(0.0

104)

(0.0

071)

(0.0

223)

Scor

e op

tion

chan

ger s

tate

pos

t 199

7 (tr

eatm

ent e

ffect

)-0

.011

90.

0003

-0.0

43(0

.015

5)(0

.026

6)(0

.026

7)Po

st 1

997

dum

my

-0.0

038

-0.0

065

0.00

35(0

.013

6)(0

.026

1)(0

.022

3)Co

nsta

nt0.

1707

0.18

120.

1398

(0.0

098)

(0.0

058)

(0.0

212)

Obs

erva

tions

4242

42N

umbe

r of S

tate

s7

77

Not

e: H

uber

-Whi

te ro

bust

stan

dard

err

ors a

re in

par

enth

eses

(clu

ster

ed b

y st

ate)

. Mod

el is

estim

ated

usin

g O

LS. S

tate

15-

17 y

ear o

ld p

opul

atio

ns a

re

used

as w

eight

s. Th

e tre

atm

ent e

ffect

repo

rted

abov

e is

the

inte

ract

ion

betw

een

the

treat

men

t sta

te d

umm

y an

d th

e po

st 1

997

dum

my,

whe

re th

e tre

atm

ent s

tate

dum

my

is eq

ual t

o 1

for t

reat

men

t sta

tes a

nd th

e po

st 1

997

dum

my

is eq

ual t

o 1

for t

he y

ears

199

8-20

00, o

ther

wise

bot

h du

mm

ies

are

equa

l to

0. S

tate

s with

few

er th

an tw

o ob

serv

atio

ns p

er p

erio

d ar

e dr

oppe

d. T

reat

men

t sta

tes a

re th

ose

stat

es th

at w

ere

requ

ired

to e

limin

ate

the

and/

or sc

ore

optio

n. T

hese

inclu

de: L

A, M

S, N

E, N

M, T

X. C

ontro

l sta

tes a

re th

ose

that

alre

ady

had

high

eno

ugh

stan

dard

s by

1997

and

hav

e lar

ge

imm

igra

nt p

opul

atio

ns. T

hese

inclu

de: C

A a

nd F

L.

81

Tab

leG

-38:

Diff

eren

ce-i

n-D

iffer

ence

Est

imat

esof

the

Eff

ect

ofth

eR

efor

mon

Dro

pou

tR

ates

Con

trol

ling

for

Age

Req

uir

emen

tsan

dR

estr

icti

ng

Con

trol

Gro

up

toC

alif

ornia

and

Flo

rida

(Hig

hIm

mig

rant

Sta

tes)

(His

pan

ics)

Ind

epen

den

t V

aria

ble

s10

th-1

2th

Gra

de

Dro

pou

t R

ate

10th

-11t

h G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e12

th G

rad

e D

rop

out

Rat

e

Scor

e op

tion

chan

ger s

tate

-0.0

189

-0.0

171

-0.0

214

(0.0

076)

(0.0

095)

(0.0

055)

Scor

e op

tion

chan

ger s

tate

pos

t 199

7 (tr

eatm

ent e

ffect

)-0

.016

0.00

53-0

.072

5(0

.003

7)(0

.006

8)(0

.005

9)Po

st 1

997

dum

my

-0.0

161

-0.0

246

0.00

79(0

.003

6)(0

.006

3)(0

.004

3)Co

nsta

nt0.

1604

0.16

930.

1351

(0.0

024)

(0.0

014)

(0.0

050)

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erva

tions

4242

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umbe

r of S

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77

Not

e: H

uber

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te ro

bust

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dard

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ors a

re in

par

enth

eses

(clu

ster

ed b

y st

ate)

. Mod

el is

estim

ated

usin

g O

LS. S

tate

15-

17 y

ear o

ld p

opul

atio

ns a

re

used

as w

eight

s. Th

e tre

atm

ent e

ffect

repo

rted

abov

e is

the

inte

ract

ion

betw

een

the

treat

men

t sta

te d

umm

y an

d th

e po

st 1

997

dum

my,

whe

re th

e tre

atm

ent s

tate

dum

my

is eq

ual t

o 1

for t

reat

men

t sta

tes a

nd th

e po

st 1

997

dum

my

is eq

ual t

o 1

for t

he y

ears

199

8-20

00, o

ther

wise

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h du

mm

ies

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equa

l to

0. S

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s with

few

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an tw

o ob

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er p

erio

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e dr

oppe

d. T

reat

men

t sta

tes a

re th

ose

stat

es th

at w

ere

requ

ired

to e

limin

ate

the

and/

or sc

ore

optio

n. T

hese

inclu

de: L

A, M

S, N

E, N

M, T

X. C

ontro

l sta

tes a

re th

ose

that

alre

ady

had

high

eno

ugh

stan

dard

s by

1997

and

hav

e lar

ge

imm

igra

nt p

opul

atio

ns. T

hese

inclu

de: C

A a

nd F

L.

82

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