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Please refer to page 12 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website
www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures.
TAIWAN
Top 2018 picks
Buy Sell
Tech Nanya Tech (2408) UMC (2303) Non tech AIDC (2634) Eclat (1476) Fin E.Sun (2884) Mega FHC (2886)
Source: Macquarie Research, January 2018
QFII monthly fund flow (2017)
Source: TEJ, Macquarie Research, January 2018
December Taiwan key reports:
Kinsus (Downgrade to Underperform)
Quanta (Upgrade to Neutral)
Wistron (Upgrade to Neutral)
Analyst(s) Macquarie Capital Limited, Taiwan Securities Branch Jeffrey Ohlweiler +886 2 2734 7512 [email protected] Corinne Jian, CFA +886 2 2734 7522 [email protected] Dexter Hsu +886 2 2734 7530 [email protected] Patrick Liao +886 2 2734 7515 [email protected] Kaylin Tsai +886 2 2734 7523 [email protected] Lynn Luo +886 2 2734 7534 [email protected] Shannen Lin +886 2 27347518 [email protected] Steven Yang +886 2 2734 7528 [email protected] Macquarie Capital Limited Allen Chang +852 3922 1136 [email protected] Stella Li +86 21 2412 9008 [email protected] Marcus Yang +86 21 2412 9087 [email protected] Verena Jeng +852 3922 3766 [email protected]
3 January 2018
Taiwan Strategy 2018 semis/IA/financials to outperform Raising our 2018 TAIEX forecast to 11,650
We lift our 2018 year-end TAIEX forecast to 11,650 (from 11,300 – keeping
our same 15x consensus multiple vs the 8-year average of 16x). Market
estimates for 2017/18/19 EPS growth are 10%/10%/7%, respectively. We
expect tech and financials to outperform in 2018 (non-tech to underperform
again). Nanya Tech is our top stock pick for Taiwan in 2018.
The TAIEX was up 0.8% in December, despite foreign selling and a second
month in a row of tech underperforming (down 4.2%/1.6% in Nov/Dec).
Foreigners sold US$1.0bn in December (finishing the year +US$5bn, but
down off an inflow of US$8.5bn in 1H17). TWSE was up 15.0% in 2017 and
the NT$ appreciated 7.9%. Tech was up 19.4%, non-tech up 9.7%, and
financials up 10.7% (the Taiwan small cap index was up 27.8%).
Overweight tech and financials, underweight non-tech
Tech: We maintain a bullish multiple year outlook on both the semiconductor
and the industrial automation (IA) markets – where many of our top buy picks
are concentrated. We expect multiple years of semiconductor growth to be
driven by a combination of content growth in PC and smartphones, coupled
with unit growth in auto electronics, IoT related, datacenter (plus content
growth), cryptocurrency related, etc.
Within semis, we like TSMC (solid EPS growth and technology leadership),
ASE (benefits of SPIL acquisition), Powertech (strong growth across all 3
major products), Nanya Tech (strong 2018 bit growth and higher DRAM
ASPs), King Yuan (strong growth in 2018 with low valuations / high dividend
yield), Global Wafers (continued raw wafer ASP hikes), and Parade (high-
speed communication technology). For non-semi tech names, we like Hon Hai
(long-term growth in EV and automation), AirTAC (continued market share
gains + new product launch), Wistron Neweb (top auto electronics pick), and
Ennoconn (strong long-term growth outlook with margin expansion).
Our top tech shorts are UMC, Advantech, Asustek, and Tung Thih.
Non-tech: We continue to stay defensive in Taiwan non-tech, preferring
companies with quality growth stories. We remain negative on the textile and
footwear chains (de-rating cycle), as we are only in the second year of the
multi-year downcycle due to e-commerce retail disruption in US, and potential
threat of footwear automation supply chain disruption. After underperforming
in 2017, we expect Petrochem to underperform again in 2018, as we believe
the EPS cycle peaked in 2016-17 and we expect EPS to decline in 2018
despite a recent rebound. We are positive on aerospace, home improvement
and home security. Top non-tech longs: Basso, AIDC, and Taiwan Secom.
Top non-tech shorts: Eclat, Feng Tay, Makalot, Nien Made, and FPCC.
Financials / Economy. As the central bank chairman will retire in February,
we’re waiting for the DPP government to appoint a successor. We believe
monetary policy will become tighter after the interest rate gap between Taiwan
and the US has widened significantly. As a result, we believe NII growth will
again be the growth driver amid a recovery in loan growth for both the TWD
and the USD and on NIM expansion. We still prefer privately-owned banks
over SOE banks because we believe newly replaced management of SOE
banks will clean up political lending in the balance sheet this year.
-100
-50
0
50
100
Ja
n-1
7
Feb
-17
Mar-
17
Apr-
17
May-1
7
Ju
n-1
7
Ju
l-17
Aug
-17
Sep
-17
Oct-
17
No
v-1
7
De
c-1
7
(NT$bn)
QFII monthly fund flow
Macquarie Research Taiwan Strategy
3 January 2018 2
Fig 1 Macquarie Taiwan top buy and short picks
Mkt Cap CP TP TSR Ticker Company Rating (US$m) (LC) (LC) (%)
Top Buy
Tech 2330 TT TSMC O 206,959 229.5 300.0 34% 2317 TT Hon Hai* O 55,733 95.2 200.0 115% 2311 TT ASE O 11,375 38.2 45.5 24% 2408 TT Nanya Tech* O 7,979 76.2 111.0 49% 6488 TT GlobalWafers O 6,152 397.5 480.0 23% 1590 TT AirTAC O 3,356 535.0 644.0 22% 6239 TT Powertech O 2,319 88.0 120.0 42% 4966 TT Parade O 1,542 589.0 610.0 4% 2449 TT KYEC O 1,261 30.3 34.0 17% 6414 TT Ennoconn Corp O 1,150 450.0 524.0 19% 6285 TT Wistron NeWeb O 1,073 85.5 97.0 18%
Non-Tech 9917 TT Taiwan Secom O 1,404 91.6 100.0 14% 2634 TT AIDC O 1,190 37.1 54.0 49% 1527 TT Basso Industry O 306 66.7 150.0 131%
Financial 2891 TT CTBC Holding O 13,517 20.5 22.0 13% 2884 TT E.Sun FHC O 6,528 18.9 21.0 14%
Top Short
Tech 2357 TT Asustek U 6,971 279.5 213.0 -19% 2303 TT UMC U 6,191 14.2 11.1 -19% 2395 TT Advantech U 5,092 210.5 166.0 -18% 3552 TT Tung Thih Electronic U 503 172.0 115.0 -31%
Non-Tech 6505 TT FPCC U 37,371 115.5 88.0 -19% 8464 TT Nien Made Enterprise U 3,181 318.0 210.0 -31% 9910 TT Feng Tay U 3,072 135.5 84.0 -34% 1476 TT Eclat Textile* U 2,760 297.5 190.0 -33% 1477 TT Makalot U 889 125.0 84.0 -28%
Financial 2886 TT Mega FHC U 11,153 24.1 19.0 -15%
Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, January 2018. Close price based on Dec 29, 2017. * Also in Macquarie Marquee buy/short idea list
TAIEX in January – ten-year average: down 1.8%
In the past ten years, January returns of the TAIEX have averaged a decline of 1.8%, with evenly
split up and down years (although 5 out of the last 7 were up). February through May all have
positive 10-year average returns.
Fig 2 Taiex trend 2010-17 (breaking out of the range)
Source: TEJ, Macquarie Research, January 2018
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Macquarie Research Taiwan Strategy
3 January 2018 3
Fig 3 Relative performance (re TAIEX) by sectors, 2015 vs. 2016 and 2017
Fig 4 Sector fund flow (2015 vs. 2016 and 2017)
Source: TEJ, Macquarie Research, January 2018 Source: TEJ, Macquarie Research, January 2018
Fig 5 Non-tech subsector share price performance (re TAIEX), 2017
Source: TEJ, Macquarie Research, January 2018
Fig 6 QFII monthly fund flow Fig 7 QFII monthly fund flow (2016-2017)
Source: TEJ, Macquarie Research, January 2018 Source: TEJ, Macquarie Research, January 2018
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
Non-Tech Financial Tech
2015 2016 2017
(20.0)
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
Tech Non-tech Financial
(NT$bn)
2015 2016 2017
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Pa
per
and P
ulp
Sh
ipp
ing &
Tra
ns
To
urism
Ele
c. M
achin
ery
Gla
ss &
Cera
mic
s
Ele
c. &
Cable
Foods
Iron a
nd S
teel
Tra
din
g &
Cons.
Te
xitle
s
Bu
ildin
g &
Cons
Oil,
Ga
s a
nd E
lec
Pla
stics
Au
tom
obile
Cem
ent
Rubber
Chem
. B
iote
ch
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
(NT$bn)
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
Ja
n-1
6
Feb
-16
Ma
r-1
6
Apr-
16
May-1
6
Ju
n-1
6
Ju
l-16
Aug
-16
Sep
-16
Oct-
16
No
v-1
6
De
c-1
6
Ja
n-1
7
Feb
-17
Ma
r-1
7
Apr-
17
May-1
7
Ju
n-1
7
Ju
l-17
Aug
-17
Sep
-17
Oct-
17
No
v-1
7
De
c-1
7
(NT$bn)
QFII monthly fund flow
Macquarie Research Taiwan Strategy
3 January 2018 4
Fig 8 QFII holdings Fig 9 QFII holdings – Tech/Non-tech/Financial
Source: TEJ, Macquarie Research, January 2018 Source: TEJ, Macquarie Research, January 2018
Fig 10 Taiwan dividend yields 2005-2017 by tech/non-tech/financials
Fig 11 Trading PE (x) by subsectors
Source: TEJ, Macquarie Research, January 2018 Source: TEJ, Macquarie Research, January 2018
Fig 12 NT$ / US$ exchange rate Fig 13 Currency movement
Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, January 2018 Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, January 2018
25
27
29
31
33
35
37
39
41
43
45
(%)
-
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
(%)
Tech Non-tech Financial
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
(%)
Taiex Tech Non-tech Financial
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
20
11
/01
20
11
/04
20
11
/07
20
11
/10
20
12
/01
20
12
/04
20
12
/07
20
12
/10
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13
/01
20
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/04
20
13
/07
20
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/10
20
14
/01
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/04
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/07
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/10
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/01
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/04
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15
/07
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/10
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16
/01
20
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/04
20
16
/07
20
16
/10
20
17
/01
20
17
/04
20
17
/07
20
17
/10
Tech Non-tech Financial
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
USDTWD Curncy
dep
reciation
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
TWD KRW JPY CNY
Macquarie Research Taiwan Strategy
3 January 2018 5
Fig 14 GDP growth (YoY) Fig 15 Export growth rate (YoY)
Source: DGBAS, Macquarie Research, January 2018 Source: DGBAS, Macquarie Research, January 2018
Fig 16 Global semiconductor revenue growth Fig 17 Taiwan semiconductor revenue growth (NT$)
Source: WSTS, Macquarie Research, January 2018
Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, January 2018 Note: Taiwan Semiconductor revenue includes: TSMC, UMC, ASE, SPIL.
Fig 18 One-year deposit rate (1985-present) Fig 19 One-year deposit rate (2015-present)
Source: DGBAS, TEJ, Macquarie Research, January 2018 Source: DGBAS, TEJ, Macquarie Research, January 2018
-1.57%
10.63%
3.80%
2.06% 2.20%
4.02%
0.81%1.40%
2.58% 2.29%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E
DGBAS forecast
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Ja
n-1
5
Mar-
15
May-1
5
Ju
l-15
Sep
-15
No
v-1
5
Ja
n-1
6
Mar-
16
May-1
6
Ju
l-16
Sep
-16
No
v-1
6
Ja
n-1
7
Mar-
17
May-1
7
Ju
l-17
Sep
-17
No
v-1
7
(%)
Export growth in NTD Export growth in USD
-2%
5%
10%
0%1%
19.8%
10.5%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E
Global Semiconductor revenue growth
12%
16%
23%
9%
7%
3.0%
11.8%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E
Taiwan Semiconductor revenue growth
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
(%)
One-year time deposit rate
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
1.20
1.25
1.30
1.35
1.40
(%)
One-year time deposit rate
Macquarie Research Taiwan Strategy
3 January 2018 6
Fig 20 Retail sales Fig 21 Consumer confidence index
Source: MOEA, TEJ, Macquarie Research, January 2018 Source: DGBAS, TEJ, Macquarie Research, January 2018
Fig 22 Mainland visitors to TW and YoY – annual data
Fig 23 Mainland visitors to TW and YoY – monthly data
Source: Taiwan Tourism, Macquarie Research, January 2018 Source: Taiwan Tourism, Macquarie Research, January 2018
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17
(NT$bn)
Retail sales yoy growth - 3MMA - (RHS)
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Consumer confidence index
Dec-17: 86.05
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
Mainland visitors to TW YoY (RHS)
K people
Macquarie Research Taiwan Strategy
3 January 2018 7
Fig 24 Plant production location and sales to the US market (analysts’ estimates)
A – by highest exposure to products exported to the US B – by highest expose to China production base
Plant location Sales to the Plant location Sales to the
Company Ticker Taiwan China RoW US market Company Ticker Taiwan China RoW US market
Eclat 1476 TT 25% 0% 75% 80% Quanta 2382 TT 0% 100% 0% 35% Makalot 1477 TT 0% 7% 93% 80% Wistron 3231 TT 0% 100% 0% 35% Toung Loong Textile 4401 TT 95% 0% 5% 80% Pegatron 4938 TT 0% 95% 5% 40% Feng Tay 9910 TT 0% 14% 86% 80% Alpha Network 3380 TT 10% 90% 0% 43% CUB 2231 TT 80% 20% 0% 70% Topkey 4536 TT 10% 90% 0% 40% Wistron Neweb 6285 TT 25% 75% 0% 55% Catcher 2474 TT 10% 90% 0% 34% Basso 1527 TT 100% 0% 0% 50% GIS 6456 TT 10% 90% 0% 33% King Slide 2059 TT 100% 0% 0% 45% AirTAC 1590 TT 10% 90% 0% 2% Accton 2345 TT 15% 85% 0% 45% Asia Cement 1102 TT 10% 90% 0% 0% AIDC 2634 TT 100% 0% 0% 45% Yungtay 1507 TT 10% 90% 0% 0% Alpha Network 3380 TT 10% 90% 0% 43% Ton Yi 9907 TT 10% 90% 0% 0% Pegatron 4938 TT 0% 95% 5% 40% Accton 2345 TT 15% 85% 0% 45% Topkey 4536 TT 10% 90% 0% 40% Taiwan Cement 1101 TT 15% 85% 0% 0% TSMC 2330 TT 92% 5% 3% 35% Inventec 2356 TT 0% 80% 20% 35% Inventec 2356 TT 0% 80% 20% 35% Compal 2324 TT 0% 80% 20% 30% Quanta 2382 TT 0% 100% 0% 35% Hon Hai 2317 TT 0% 80% 20% 20% Wistron 3231 TT 0% 100% 0% 35% Tung Thih 3552 TT 20% 80% 0% 8% FTC 1434 TT 16% 48% 36% 35% Wistron Neweb 6285 TT 25% 75% 0% 55% EVA Air 2618 TT 100% 0% 0% 35% BizLink 3665 TT 0% 60% 40% 33% Catcher 2474 TT 10% 90% 0% 34% Epistar 2448 TT 40% 60% 0% 23% BizLink 3665 TT 0% 60% 40% 33% Delta 2308 TT 15% 60% 25% 15% GIS 6456 TT 10% 90% 0% 33% Giant 9920 TT 45% 50% 5% 27% ASE 2311 TT 48% 44% 8% 30% Advantech 2395 TT 50% 50% 0% 25% Compal 2324 TT 0% 80% 20% 30% Ginko 8406 TT 50% 50% 0% 0% Acer 2353 TT na na na 30% FTC 1434 TT 16% 48% 36% 35% TPK 3673 TT 95% 5% 0% 27% ASE 2311 TT 48% 44% 8% 30% China Air 2610 TT 100% 0% 0% 27% Everlight 2393 TT 60% 40% 0% 23% Giant 9920 TT 45% 50% 5% 27% FENC 1402 TT 65% 35% 0% 7% Merida 9921 TT 70% 30% 0% 27% Merida 9921 TT 70% 30% 0% 27% UMC 2303 TT 69% 12% 19% 25% CUB 2231 TT 80% 20% 0% 70% SPIL 2325 TT 88% 12% 0% 25% NPC 1303 TT 76% 16% 8% 12% Advantech 2395 TT 50% 50% 0% 25% FCFC 1326 TT 84% 16% 0% 12% HTC 2498 TT 95% 5% 0% 25% FPC 1301 TT 85% 15% 0% 12% Everlight 2393 TT 60% 40% 0% 23% Feng Tay 9910 TT 0% 14% 86% 80% Epistar 2448 TT 40% 60% 0% 23% UMC 2303 TT 69% 12% 19% 25% Largan 3008 TT 90% 10% 0% 22% SPIL 2325 TT 88% 12% 0% 25% Hon Hai 2317 TT 0% 80% 20% 20% KYEC 2449 TT 88% 12% 0% 15% Asustek 2357 TT na na na 20% Largan 3008 TT 90% 10% 0% 22% Delta 2308 TT 15% 60% 25% 15% Transcend 2451 TT 90% 10% 0% 15% Chroma 2360 TT 100% 0% 0% 15% Powertech 6239 TT 88% 10% 2% 15% KYEC 2449 TT 88% 12% 0% 15% AUO 2409 TT 85% 10% 5% 10% Transcend 2451 TT 90% 10% 0% 15% Hiwin 2049 TT 80% 10% 10% 7% Powertech 6239 TT 88% 10% 2% 15% CTCI 9933 TT 85% 10% 5% 3% Innolux 3481 TT 95% 5% 0% 12% Makalot 1477 TT 0% 7% 93% 80% FPC 1301 TT 85% 15% 0% 12% TSMC 2330 TT 92% 5% 3% 35% NPC 1303 TT 76% 16% 8% 12% TPK 3673 TT 95% 5% 0% 27% FCFC 1326 TT 84% 16% 0% 12% HTC 2498 TT 95% 5% 0% 25% FPCC 6505 TT 100% 0% 0% 12% Innolux 3481 TT 95% 5% 0% 12% Nanya Tech 2408 TT 100% 0% 0% 10% Eclat 1476 TT 25% 0% 75% 80% AUO 2409 TT 85% 10% 5% 10% TLT 4401 TT 95% 0% 5% 80% Phison 8299 TT 100% 0% 0% 10% Basso 1527 TT 100% 0% 0% 50% Tung Thih 3552 TT 20% 80% 0% 8% King Slide 2059 TT 100% 0% 0% 45% Hiwin 2049 TT 80% 10% 10% 7% AIDC 2634 TT 100% 0% 0% 45% Mediatek 2454 TT na na na 7% EVA Air 2618 TT 100% 0% 0% 35% FENC 1402 TT 65% 35% 0% 7% China Air 2610 TT 100% 0% 0% 27% Vanguard 5347 TT 100% 0% 0% 3% Chroma 2360 TT 100% 0% 0% 15% St Shine 1565 TT 100% 0% 0% 3% FPCC 6505 TT 100% 0% 0% 12% CTCI 9933 TT 85% 10% 5% 3% Nanya Tech 2408 TT 100% 0% 0% 10% AirTAC 1590 TT 10% 90% 0% 2% Phison 8299 TT 100% 0% 0% 10% PChome 9922 TT 100% 0% 0% 2% Vanguard 5347 TT 100% 0% 0% 3% Taiwan Cement 1101 TT 15% 85% 0% 0% St Shine 1565 TT 100% 0% 0% 3% Asia Cement 1102 TT 10% 90% 0% 0% PChome 9922 TT 100% 0% 0% 2% Yungtay 1507 TT 10% 90% 0% 0% Taiwan SECOM 9917 TT 100% 0% 0% 0% Ginko 8406 TT 50% 50% 0% 0% Momo 9923 TT 100% 0% 0% 0% Ton Yi 9907 TT 10% 90% 0% 0% Addcn 9924 TT 100% 0% 0% 0% Taiwan SECOM 9917 TT 100% 0% 0% 0% Kerry TJ 9925 TT 100% 0% 0% 0% Momo 9923 TT 100% 0% 0% 0% Acer 2353 TT na na na 30% Addcn 9924 TT 100% 0% 0% 0% Asustek 2357 TT na na na 20% Kerry TJ 9925 TT 100% 0% 0% 0% Mediatek 2454 TT na na na 7%
Source: Companies, Macquarie Research, January 2018
Macquarie Research Taiwan Strategy
3 January 2018 8
Fig 25 Valuation comparison - Tech
Mkt Cap Last TP TSR EPS (local $/¢) PER (X)
P/BV (X)
ROE (%)
Div yield (%) Ticker Company Reco. (US$m) Close (NTD) (%) 16A 17E 18E 16A 17E 18E 16A 17E 18E 16A 17E 18E 16A 17E 18E
Tech 24.2 19.3 15.5 3.7 3.3 2.9 16.4 17.6 19.9 3.4 3.6 4.4 Semiconductor 30.5 20.8 16.5 4.2 3.3 2.9 16.1 17.6 20.2 2.8 3.1 3.9 2330 TT TSMC O 206,959 229.5 300.0 34% 12.89 13.15 15.48 18.0 17.7 15.0 4.3 3.9 3.5 25.6 23.4 24.7 3.0 3.1 3.6 2311 TT ASE O 11,375 38.2 45.5 24% 2.73 2.73 3.18 14.0 14.0 12.0 1.8 1.6 1.5 12.8 12.0 12.6 3.8 4.5 5.2 6239 TT Powertech O 2,319 88.0 120.0 42% 6.20 7.90 10.00 14.1 11.1 8.8 1.9 2.0 1.9 13.9 17.5 21.8 4.6 5.8 7.3 2449 TT KYEC O 1,261 30.3 34.0 17% 2.56 2.12 3.27 12.1 14.6 9.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 12.9 10.2 14.9 5.9 4.8 7.4 6488 TT GlobalWafers O 6,152 397.5 480.0 23% 2.54 12.29 27.02 156.8 32.5 14.8 9.3 5.2 4.2 5.8 20.7 31.3 0.7 1.8 4.9 6415 TT Silergy O 2,034 680.0 780.0 16% 18.59 22.21 30.00 37.0 30.9 22.9 7.0 6.1 5.1 23.0 21.4 24.2 0.8 1.2 1.6 2408 TT Nanya Tech O 7,979 76.2 111.0 49% 8.63 8.47 12.00 9.0 9.2 6.5 2.5 2.1 1.7 33.8 24.5 28.9 1.9 3.3 4.6 6510 TT CHPT O 1,248 1145.0 1500.0 32% 20.05 24.32 42.36 55.1 45.4 26.1 12.5 6.5 5.4 22.3 18.3 22.7 0.7 0.9 1.6 4966 TT Parade O 1,542 589.0 610.0 4% 18.07 25.57 29.12 32.0 22.6 19.9 6.0 5.4 4.7 19.4 24.7 25.3 0.0 0.0 2.6 3105 TT Win Semi O 3,915 283.0 370.0 32% 7.30 9.00 13.10 38.7 31.4 21.6 6.5 5.7 4.9 17.9 19.3 24.4 0.2 1.6 1.9 2454 TT MediaTek O 15,831 294.0 400.0 39% 15.16 11.54 19.34 19.2 25.3 15.1 1.9 1.9 1.8 9.8 7.4 12.1 3.3 2.6 4.3 2337 TT Macronix O 2,710 44.2 61.0 38% (0.14) 3.34 4.39 nmf 13.0 9.9 4.2 3.3 2.5 (1.3) 24.9 28.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 2303 TT UMC U 6,191 14.2 11.1 -19% 0.67 0.74 0.38 21.1 19.2 37.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 3.8 4.2 2.2 3.5 3.3 1.7 5347 TT Vanguard U 3,531 66.0 53.5 -14% 3.38 2.73 2.96 18.6 23.1 21.3 3.6 3.6 3.5 19.7 15.7 16.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 2325 TT SPIL N 5,280 50.3 47.0 -4% 3.19 2.70 3.17 15.7 18.5 15.8 2.4 2.2 2.1 14.5 12.4 13.8 3.5 3.0 3.5 3034 TT Novatek U 2,367 113.5 90.0 -15% 8.22 7.86 8.33 14.0 14.6 13.8 2.5 2.5 2.3 17.7 16.9 17.4 6.1 5.8 6.2 8299 TT Phison U 1,966 292.0 297.0 8% 24.66 30.61 26.95 11.9 9.6 10.9 2.5 2.5 2.3 22.5 26.0 21.8 4.8 5.9 5.2 Brand/ODM/EMS 13.4 13.8 11.1 1.3 1.3 1.2 10.3 9.6 11.8 5.7 5.6 6.6 2317 TT Hon Hai O 55,733 95.2 200.0 115% 8.51 8.45 13.24 11.2 11.2 7.2 1.5 1.4 1.3 14.3 13.3 18.9 4.7 4.7 7.4 4938 TT Pegatron N 6,409 72.0 61.0 -8% 7.48 6.01 6.12 9.6 12.0 11.8 1.3 1.3 1.2 13.0 10.5 10.5 6.9 6.9 6.7 2357 TT Asustek U 6,971 279.5 213.0 -19% 25.84 19.30 19.35 10.8 14.4 14.4 1.1 1.1 1.1 11.0 7.9 7.7 6.1 4.5 4.5 2356 TT Inventec O 2,954 23.8 28.1 25% 1.57 1.87 2.25 15.4 12.9 10.8 1.6 1.5 1.5 10.1 12.1 14.2 6.0 7.0 8.4 2324 TT Compal N 3,154 21.3 18.9 -6% 1.88 1.43 2.36 11.2 14.8 8.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 7.8 6.1 10.3 5.7 5.7 7.4 2382 TT Quanta N 8,086 61.9 56.0 -4% 3.93 4.02 4.45 15.8 15.4 13.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 11.4 11.6 12.6 5.7 5.7 5.7 3231 TT Wistron N 2,222 24.0 21.6 -5% 1.21 1.48 2.16 19.7 16.1 11.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 4.4 5.8 8.4 4.9 5.0 6.4 2353 TT Acer U 2,482 24.2 16.6 -29% (1.62) 0.83 1.04 nmf 28.6 23.0 1.3 1.3 1.2 (7.9) 4.4 5.4 2.1 2.5 2.9 2498 TT HTC O 2,082 73.1 85.0 16% (12.85) (8.23) (4.95) nmf nmf nmf 1.2 1.3 1.4 (18.1) (13.6) (8.9) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Component 18.1 17.7 14.6 3.5 3.4 2.9 18.5 19.4 21.0 3.6 3.7 4.4 2059 TT King Slide N 1,308 400.5 400.0 1% 16.49 10.91 19.98 24.4 36.9 20.1 4.4 4.7 4.0 18.8 12.4 21.6 2.1 1.4 2.5 3552 TT Tung Thih U 503 172.0 115.0 -31% 14.22 5.78 7.69 12.1 29.8 22.4 3.5 3.6 3.3 30.3 11.9 15.4 4.3 1.7 2.3 2231 TT CUB N 980 274.0 304.0 13% 11.03 10.35 13.21 25.8 27.4 21.5 10.0 11.7 9.4 41.5 39.8 49.1 2.5 2.2 3.0 2451 TT Transcend O 1,209 82.7 96.5 24% 6.69 6.91 8.04 12.4 12.0 10.3 1.8 1.7 1.7 14.1 14.5 16.4 7.2 7.5 8.7 3189 TT Kinsus U 834 54.2 45.0 -15% 5.01 2.28 3.71 10.9 24.0 14.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 7.8 3.5 5.7 5.5 2.3 3.7 2393 TT Everlight O 676 45.0 65.0 51% 4.12 4.10 4.83 11.0 11.0 9.4 1.6 1.2 1.2 11.8 12.4 12.8 6.4 6.4 6.4 6456 TT GIS O 2,330 199.0 352.0 82% 9.05 22.71 29.31 21.9 8.7 6.8 5.0 2.7 2.1 24.4 40.0 35.1 2.0 4.9 6.3 6269 TT Flexium N 1,200 106.5 122.0 18% 8.54 9.22 10.16 13.0 12.0 10.9 2.0 2.2 1.9 14.8 17.4 18.6 2.9 3.3 3.7 2383 TT Elite Material O 1,124 101.5 160.0 62% 8.70 9.36 12.79 12.0 11.1 8.1 3.2 3.2 2.6 27.5 28.6 35.2 4.5 4.9 6.6 4958 TT Zhen Ding N 1,813 65.5 74.0 18% 4.29 6.21 6.72 15.4 10.7 9.9 1.4 1.6 1.5 8.6 13.9 15.5 3.3 4.8 5.2 6285 TT Wistron NeWeb O 1,073 85.5 97.0 18% 5.71 5.96 6.48 15.0 14.4 13.2 2.3 2.2 2.1 16.0 15.9 16.0 4.2 4.2 4.6 2345 TT Accton O 2,085 106.0 115.0 12% 3.51 4.74 5.73 31.7 23.5 19.5 6.8 7.7 7.0 22.2 30.9 37.6 2.8 3.8 4.6 3380 TT Alpha Networks N 367 23.8 21.1 -7% 1.40 1.47 1.63 17.3 16.4 14.9 1.2 1.3 1.2 7.2 7.7 8.5 4.3 4.5 5.0 2474 TT Catcher N 8,689 328.0 291.0 -8% 28.50 28.56 30.70 11.6 11.6 10.8 2.1 1.9 1.7 18.5 17.0 16.4 3.0 3.0 3.3 3673 TT TPK O 1,165 83.6 113.0 35% (4.11) 6.49 7.45 nmf 12.9 11.2 1.0 0.9 0.8 (4.9) 7.2 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 2448 TT Epistar U 1,697 45.2 23.3 -48% (3.24) (1.33) (1.34) nmf nmf nmf 0.9 1.0 1.1 (6.6) (2.8) (3.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 3481 TT Innolux N 4,207 12.4 13.6 12% 0.19 3.61 2.37 66 3 5.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 14.9 9.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2308 TT Delta N 12,342 143.5 134.0 -3% 7.24 7.43 8.40 19.5 19.0 16.8 3.0 3.2 3.0 15.1 16.3 18.6 3.5 3.6 4.1 3008 TT Largan U 19,484 4020.0 3000.0 -23% 168.94 212.43 250.72 25.2 20.0 17.0 7.4 6.0 4.9 32.5 33.4 32.1 1.5 1.9 2.2 2409 TT AUO U 4,052 12.4 10.0 -16% 0.81 3.33 0.82 15.2 3.7 15.0 0.6 0.6 0.6 3.9 15.6 3.7 3.2 3.2 3.2 3665 TT Bizlink N 1,116 278.5 268.0 -1% 9.14 10.35 13.41 30.8 27.3 21.0 5.1 4.3 3.9 18.7 18.5 19.4 2.2 2.5 3.2 Automation/IPC 41.5 27.3 21.1 6.4 5.8 5.3 18.2 22.6 26.8 1.7 2.3 2.9 1590 TT AirTAC O 3,356 535.0 644.0 22% 10.72 18.55 23.34 48.8 28.2 22.4 8.8 6.6 5.8 18.4 26.8 27.8 1.0 1.8 2.3 2360 TT Chroma O 2,250 162.0 145.0 -7% 4.55 6.57 8.03 35.1 24.3 19.9 5.7 5.6 5.2 17.2 23.3 27.0 2.1 3.1 3.8 6414 TT Ennoconn Corp O 1,150 450.0 524.0 19% 14.01 15.12 23.90 31.7 29.4 18.6 5.4 6.3 6.0 22.4 20.2 33.2 2.3 2.4 3.8 2049 TT Hiwin N 3,060 322.0 324.0 2% 4.87 10.60 14.75 65.7 30.2 21.7 6.4 5.4 4.6 9.6 19.3 23.1 0.5 1.1 1.6 2395 TT Advantech U 5,092 210.5 166.0 -18% 8.14 8.75 9.47 26.4 24.6 22.7 5.9 5.3 5.0 23.4 23.2 23.0 2.7 2.9 3.1
Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, January 2018, Priced as of Dec 29 2017
Macquarie Research Taiwan Strategy
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Fig 26 Valuation comparison – Non-tech/Financial
Mkt Cap Last TP TSR EPS (local $/¢) PER (X) P/BV (X) ROE (%) Div yield (%)
Ticker Company Reco. (US$m) Close (NTD) (%) 16A 17E 18E 16A 17E 18E 16A 17E 18E 16A 17E 18E 16A 17E 18E
Non-Tech 23.8 21.7 19.6 5.0 4.4 4.2 21.3 22.4 20.3 3.8 4.0 4.0 Aerospace 13.7 15.8 12.6 2.3 2.2 2.0 16.9 13.9 16.3 4.6 4.3 5.2 2634 TT AIDC O 1,190 37.1 54.0 49% 2.21 2.00 2.70 16.9 18.7 13.9 2.9 2.6 2.4 17.5 14.7 18.0 2.6 2.8 3.8 4536 TT Topkey Corp N 276 89.8 105.0 23% 8.58 7.00 8.00 10.5 12.9 11.3 1.7 1.7 1.6 16.3 13.2 14.6 6.7 5.8 6.6 Buildings/Construction/Security 67.5 18.8 20.4 4.4 4.1 4.1 6.1 22.4 19.9 3.8 4.8 4.6 9917 TT Taiwan Secom O 1,404 91.6 100.0 14% 1.36 4.90 4.50 67.5 18.8 20.4 4.4 4.1 4.1 6.1 22.4 19.9 3.8 4.8 4.6 Industrial 16.9 20.0 14.6 4.2 4.1 3.7 24.1 19.4 25.5 5.0 5.2 6.1 1527 TT Basso Industry O 306 66.7 150.0 131% 6.88 3.00 8.30 9.5 21.8 7.9 2.4 2.5 2.2 26.3 11.4 29.7 6.3 5.9 7.6 8464 TT Nien Made Enterprise U 3,181 318.0 210.0 -31% 12.59 12.15 14.00 25.7 26.6 23.1 8.2 7.8 7.2 32.9 30.0 32.3 3.1 3.2 3.7 9933 TT CTCI N 1,164 45.2 48.0 13% 2.91 3.85 3.50 15.5 11.7 12.9 2.0 1.9 1.9 13.0 16.7 14.6 5.8 6.4 7.0 Petrochem 13.6 16.8 19.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 18.5 14.0 11.9 5.0 4.6 4.0 1301 TT Formosa Plastics N 21,119 98.7 90.0 -4% 6.19 6.10 5.70 15.9 16.1 17.2 2.0 1.9 1.9 13.1 12.2 11.1 4.7 4.6 4.3 6505 TT FPCC U 37,371 115.5 88.0 -19% 7.95 6.30 5.20 14.5 18.3 22.1 3.5 3.5 3.5 26.3 19.3 15.9 5.2 4.4 3.7 1303 TT Nan Ya Plastics U 20,706 77.9 64.0 -13% 6.16 5.00 4.40 12.5 15.4 17.5 1.8 1.7 1.7 14.7 11.5 9.8 4.3 4.8 4.2 1326 TT FCFC U 20,813 103.0 84.0 -14% 7.48 6.20 5.60 13.8 16.7 18.5 1.9 1.9 1.8 14.5 11.3 10.1 5.4 4.5 4.1 Conglomerates 18.9 15.3 14.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 4.5 5.2 5.2 3.4 4.1 4.2 1402 TT FENC O 4,870 26.8 32.5 25% 1.18 1.50 1.70 22.7 17.9 15.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 3.3 4.2 4.9 3.0 3.6 4.1 1434 TT Formosa Taffeta N 1,789 31.3 31.5 5% 2.07 2.45 2.30 15.1 12.8 13.6 0.8 0.8 0.7 5.8 6.1 5.6 3.8 4.5 4.3 Textile & Footwear 19.9 22.3 19.7 5.0 4.8 4.5 25.9 22.1 23.5 4.2 3.7 4.2 4401 TT Toung Loong Textile N 293 71.8 78.0 14% 4.37 5.00 5.60 16.4 14.4 12.8 3.3 3.1 2.9 20.6 22.5 23.7 5.0 5.7 6.4 1476 TT Eclat Textile U 2,760 297.5 190.0 -33% 13.34 11.60 13.60 22.3 25.6 21.8 5.4 5.3 4.9 27.2 20.9 23.2 3.5 3.0 3.5 9910 TT Feng Tay U 3,072 135.5 84.0 -34% 6.67 6.50 7.00 20.5 21.0 19.5 6.6 6.2 5.7 33.1 30.4 30.4 3.8 3.7 4.0 1477 TT Makalot U 889 125.0 84.0 -28% 7.38 6.20 7.10 17.0 20.3 17.7 3.0 3.1 3.0 17.3 15.0 17.0 5.4 4.5 5.2 Ecommerce 22.1 31.9 19.5 4.7 4.7 4.7 21.8 20.0 18.5 4.1 3.5 3.3 5287 TT Addcn O 348 239.0 295.0 29% 13.04 13.37 14.69 18.4 18.0 16.4 5.5 5.7 5.5 29.8 31.1 34.3 4.8 5.6 6.1 8044 TT PChome Online U 567 137.0 100.0 -26% 6.54 2.56 (0.31) 21.6 55.1 nmf 3.2 3.3 3.7 15.0 5.8 (0.8) 3.3 1.3 0.0 8454 TT Momo.com N 1,062 217.5 210.0 0% 8.33 9.69 9.75 26.4 22.7 22.6 5.4 5.1 4.9 20.7 23.0 22.1 4.2 3.7 3.7 Contact lenses 20.4 24.3 22.6 5.7 5.4 4.9 25.7 20.6 20.8 2.9 2.5 2.7 8406 TT Ginko U 696 217.0 145.0 -31% 16.37 11.98 12.10 13.6 18.5 18.3 2.0 1.9 1.8 15.1 10.7 10.3 3.1 2.7 2.7 1565 TT St Shine U 1,662 975.0 500.0 -46% 35.26 32.00 35.70 27.3 30.1 26.9 9.4 8.9 8.0 36.4 30.4 31.3 2.8 2.4 2.7 Consumer 34.0 23.3 25.1 8.9 6.8 6.6 26.8 38.5 27.2 2.2 4.0 2.9 1216 TT UPE O 12,856 66.0 70.0 12% 2.56 6.66 2.94 26.3 10.1 22.8 4.0 3.2 3.4 15.2 35.3 14.3 3.1 6.2 3.7 5903 TT Taiwan FamilyMart O 1,370 178.0 250.0 44% 6.17 7.06 8.11 29.4 25.7 22.4 8.1 7.4 6.8 28.6 30.3 31.7 2.7 3.1 3.6 5904 TT Poya O 1,219 372.5 490.0 35% 12.02 14.56 17.94 30.9 25.5 20.7 11.5 10.3 9.0 39.8 42.7 46.4 2.8 3.4 4.3 2723 TT Gourmet Master O 2,285 435.0 400.0 -7% 10.68 13.21 15.86 39.3 31.8 26.5 8.8 6.9 5.9 21.5 23.3 24.1 1.1 1.4 1.9 8436 TT TCI Co O 856 287.0 290.0 2% 6.00 7.75 9.91 48.0 37.1 29.1 10.3 7.4 6.2 20.6 22.0 23.2 0.5 0.8 1.0 2912 TT President Chain Store N 10,073 284.0 262.0 1% 9.46 29.80 9.81 30.4 9.6 29.3 10.4 5.8 8.5 35.3 77.6 23.6 2.8 8.8 2.9 Financial 14.7 12.6 12.1 1.3 1.2 1.2 9.4 10.3 10.2 4.3 4.9 5.1 2884 TT E.Sun FHC O 6,528 18.9 21.0 14% 1.31 1.55 1.70 14.4 12.2 11.1 1.4 1.3 1.2 10.5 11.0 11.1 2.6 2.8 3.2 2891 TT CTBC Holding O 13,517 20.5 22.0 13% 1.35 1.74 1.81 15.1 11.7 11.3 1.4 1.3 1.3 10.0 11.7 11.7 4.5 5.9 6.2 2886 TT Mega FHC U 11,153 24.1 19.0 -15% 1.65 1.73 1.74 14.7 14.0 13.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 7.7 8.0 7.9 5.9 5.9 5.9
Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, January 2018, Priced as of Dec 29 2017
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Macquarie tech stocks coverage: 2018E P/E vs. subsectors’ growth – Outperforms (in green) and Underperforms (in red)
Source: Macquarie Research, January 2018. Green: Outperform; Red: Underperform; Black: Neutral
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Macquarie non - tech stocks coverage: 2018E P/E vs. subsectors’ Beta – Outperforms (in green) and Underperforms (in red)
Source: Macquarie Research, January 2018. Green: Outperform; Red: Underperform; Black: Neutral
Macquarie Research Taiwan Strategy
3 January 2018 12
Important disclosures:
Recommendation definitions
Macquarie - Australia/New Zealand Outperform – return >3% in excess of benchmark return Neutral – return within 3% of benchmark return Underperform – return >3% below benchmark return Benchmark return is determined by long term nominal GDP growth plus 12 month forward market dividend yield
Macquarie – Asia/Europe Outperform – expected return >+10% Neutral – expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform – expected return <-10%
Macquarie – South Africa Outperform – expected return >+10% Neutral – expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform – expected return <-10%
Macquarie - Canada Outperform – return >5% in excess of benchmark return Neutral – return within 5% of benchmark return Underperform – return >5% below benchmark return
Macquarie - USA Outperform (Buy) – return >5% in excess of Russell 3000 index return Neutral (Hold) – return within 5% of Russell 3000 index return Underperform (Sell)– return >5% below Russell 3000 index return
Volatility index definition*
This is calculated from the volatility of historical price movements. Very high–highest risk – Stock should be expected to move up or down 60–100% in a year – investors should be aware this stock is highly speculative. High – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 40–60% in a year – investors should be aware this stock could be speculative. Medium – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 30–40% in a year. Low–medium – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 25–30% in a year. Low – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 15–25% in a year. * Applicable to Asia/Australian/NZ/Canada stocks only
Recommendations – 12 months Note: Quant recommendations may differ from Fundamental Analyst recommendations
Financial definitions
All "Adjusted" data items have had the following adjustments made: Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging, IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expense Excluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends & minority interests EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa* ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assets ROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average total assets ROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders funds Gross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation *equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average number of shares All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks are modelled under IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards).
Recommendation proportions – For quarter ending 30 September 2017
AU/NZ Asia RSA USA CA EUR
Outperform 50.38% 56.22% 40.70% 46.21% 63.85% 41.61% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 4.18% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)
Neutral 37.50% 28.16% 43.02% 47.52% 30.00% 39.51% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 2.68% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)
Underperform 12.12% 15.62% 16.28% 6.27% 6.15% 18.88% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 1.08% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)
Company-specific disclosures: Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures.
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Asia Research Head of Equity Research
Peter Redhead (Global – Head) (44 20) 3037 4263
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This publication was disseminated on 03 January 2018 at 10:20 UTC.