14
Please refer to page 12 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures. TAIWAN Top 2018 picks Buy Sell Tech Nanya Tech (2408) UMC (2303) Non tech AIDC (2634) Eclat (1476) Fin E.Sun (2884) Mega FHC (2886) Source: Macquarie Research, January 2018 QFII monthly fund flow (2017) Source: TEJ, Macquarie Research, January 2018 December Taiwan key reports: Kinsus (Downgrade to Underperform) Quanta (Upgrade to Neutral) Wistron (Upgrade to Neutral) Analyst(s) Macquarie Capital Limited, Taiwan Securities Branch Jeffrey Ohlweiler +886 2 2734 7512 [email protected] Corinne Jian, CFA +886 2 2734 7522 [email protected] Dexter Hsu +886 2 2734 7530 [email protected] Patrick Liao +886 2 2734 7515 [email protected] Kaylin Tsai +886 2 2734 7523 [email protected] Lynn Luo +886 2 2734 7534 [email protected] Shannen Lin +886 2 27347518 [email protected] Steven Yang +886 2 2734 7528 [email protected] Macquarie Capital Limited Allen Chang +852 3922 1136 [email protected] Stella Li +86 21 2412 9008 [email protected] Marcus Yang +86 21 2412 9087 [email protected] Verena Jeng +852 3922 3766 [email protected] 3 January 2018 Taiwan Strategy 2018 semis/IA/financials to outperform Raising our 2018 TAIEX forecast to 11,650 We lift our 2018 year-end TAIEX forecast to 11,650 (from 11,300 keeping our same 15x consensus multiple vs the 8-year average of 16x). Market estimates for 2017/18/19 EPS growth are 10%/10%/7%, respectively. We expect tech and financials to outperform in 2018 (non-tech to underperform again). Nanya Tech is our top stock pick for Taiwan in 2018. The TAIEX was up 0.8% in December, despite foreign selling and a second month in a row of tech underperforming (down 4.2%/1.6% in Nov/Dec). Foreigners sold US$1.0bn in December (finishing the year +US$5bn, but down off an inflow of US$8.5bn in 1H17). TWSE was up 15.0% in 2017 and the NT$ appreciated 7.9%. Tech was up 19.4%, non-tech up 9.7%, and financials up 10.7% (the Taiwan small cap index was up 27.8%). Overweight tech and financials, underweight non-tech Tech: We maintain a bullish multiple year outlook on both the semiconductor and the industrial automation (IA) markets where many of our top buy picks are concentrated. We expect multiple years of semiconductor growth to be driven by a combination of content growth in PC and smartphones, coupled with unit growth in auto electronics, IoT related, datacenter (plus content growth), cryptocurrency related, etc. Within semis, we like TSMC (solid EPS growth and technology leadership), ASE (benefits of SPIL acquisition), Powertech (strong growth across all 3 major products), Nanya Tech (strong 2018 bit growth and higher DRAM ASPs), King Yuan (strong growth in 2018 with low valuations / high dividend yield), Global Wafers (continued raw wafer ASP hikes), and Parade (high- speed communication technology). For non-semi tech names, we like Hon Hai (long-term growth in EV and automation), AirTAC (continued market share gains + new product launch), Wistron Neweb (top auto electronics pick), and Ennoconn (strong long-term growth outlook with margin expansion). Our top tech shorts are UMC, Advantech, Asustek, and Tung Thih. Non-tech: We continue to stay defensive in Taiwan non-tech, preferring companies with quality growth stories. We remain negative on the textile and footwear chains (de-rating cycle), as we are only in the second year of the multi-year downcycle due to e-commerce retail disruption in US, and potential threat of footwear automation supply chain disruption. After underperforming in 2017, we expect Petrochem to underperform again in 2018, as we believe the EPS cycle peaked in 2016-17 and we expect EPS to decline in 2018 despite a recent rebound. We are positive on aerospace, home improvement and home security. Top non-tech longs: Basso, AIDC, and Taiwan Secom. Top non-tech shorts: Eclat, Feng Tay, Makalot, Nien Made, and FPCC. Financials / Economy. As the central bank chairman will retire in February, we’re waiting for the DPP government to appoint a successor. We believe monetary policy will become tighter after the interest rate gap between Taiwan and the US has widened significantly. As a result, we believe NII growth will again be the growth driver amid a recovery in loan growth for both the TWD and the USD and on NIM expansion. We still prefer privately-owned banks over SOE banks because we believe newly replaced management of SOE banks will clean up political lending in the balance sheet this year. -100 -50 0 50 100 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 (NT$bn) QFII monthly fund flow

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Page 1: TAIWAN Taiwan Strategy - jrj.com.cnpg.jrj.com.cn/acc/Res/CN_RES/INVEST/2018/1/3/8bebec7c-ff...2018/01/03  · Non -tech: We continue to stay defensive in Taiwan non , preferring companies

Please refer to page 12 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website

www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures.

TAIWAN

Top 2018 picks

Buy Sell

Tech Nanya Tech (2408) UMC (2303) Non tech AIDC (2634) Eclat (1476) Fin E.Sun (2884) Mega FHC (2886)

Source: Macquarie Research, January 2018

QFII monthly fund flow (2017)

Source: TEJ, Macquarie Research, January 2018

December Taiwan key reports:

Kinsus (Downgrade to Underperform)

Quanta (Upgrade to Neutral)

Wistron (Upgrade to Neutral)

Analyst(s) Macquarie Capital Limited, Taiwan Securities Branch Jeffrey Ohlweiler +886 2 2734 7512 [email protected] Corinne Jian, CFA +886 2 2734 7522 [email protected] Dexter Hsu +886 2 2734 7530 [email protected] Patrick Liao +886 2 2734 7515 [email protected] Kaylin Tsai +886 2 2734 7523 [email protected] Lynn Luo +886 2 2734 7534 [email protected] Shannen Lin +886 2 27347518 [email protected] Steven Yang +886 2 2734 7528 [email protected] Macquarie Capital Limited Allen Chang +852 3922 1136 [email protected] Stella Li +86 21 2412 9008 [email protected] Marcus Yang +86 21 2412 9087 [email protected] Verena Jeng +852 3922 3766 [email protected]

3 January 2018

Taiwan Strategy 2018 semis/IA/financials to outperform Raising our 2018 TAIEX forecast to 11,650

We lift our 2018 year-end TAIEX forecast to 11,650 (from 11,300 – keeping

our same 15x consensus multiple vs the 8-year average of 16x). Market

estimates for 2017/18/19 EPS growth are 10%/10%/7%, respectively. We

expect tech and financials to outperform in 2018 (non-tech to underperform

again). Nanya Tech is our top stock pick for Taiwan in 2018.

The TAIEX was up 0.8% in December, despite foreign selling and a second

month in a row of tech underperforming (down 4.2%/1.6% in Nov/Dec).

Foreigners sold US$1.0bn in December (finishing the year +US$5bn, but

down off an inflow of US$8.5bn in 1H17). TWSE was up 15.0% in 2017 and

the NT$ appreciated 7.9%. Tech was up 19.4%, non-tech up 9.7%, and

financials up 10.7% (the Taiwan small cap index was up 27.8%).

Overweight tech and financials, underweight non-tech

Tech: We maintain a bullish multiple year outlook on both the semiconductor

and the industrial automation (IA) markets – where many of our top buy picks

are concentrated. We expect multiple years of semiconductor growth to be

driven by a combination of content growth in PC and smartphones, coupled

with unit growth in auto electronics, IoT related, datacenter (plus content

growth), cryptocurrency related, etc.

Within semis, we like TSMC (solid EPS growth and technology leadership),

ASE (benefits of SPIL acquisition), Powertech (strong growth across all 3

major products), Nanya Tech (strong 2018 bit growth and higher DRAM

ASPs), King Yuan (strong growth in 2018 with low valuations / high dividend

yield), Global Wafers (continued raw wafer ASP hikes), and Parade (high-

speed communication technology). For non-semi tech names, we like Hon Hai

(long-term growth in EV and automation), AirTAC (continued market share

gains + new product launch), Wistron Neweb (top auto electronics pick), and

Ennoconn (strong long-term growth outlook with margin expansion).

Our top tech shorts are UMC, Advantech, Asustek, and Tung Thih.

Non-tech: We continue to stay defensive in Taiwan non-tech, preferring

companies with quality growth stories. We remain negative on the textile and

footwear chains (de-rating cycle), as we are only in the second year of the

multi-year downcycle due to e-commerce retail disruption in US, and potential

threat of footwear automation supply chain disruption. After underperforming

in 2017, we expect Petrochem to underperform again in 2018, as we believe

the EPS cycle peaked in 2016-17 and we expect EPS to decline in 2018

despite a recent rebound. We are positive on aerospace, home improvement

and home security. Top non-tech longs: Basso, AIDC, and Taiwan Secom.

Top non-tech shorts: Eclat, Feng Tay, Makalot, Nien Made, and FPCC.

Financials / Economy. As the central bank chairman will retire in February,

we’re waiting for the DPP government to appoint a successor. We believe

monetary policy will become tighter after the interest rate gap between Taiwan

and the US has widened significantly. As a result, we believe NII growth will

again be the growth driver amid a recovery in loan growth for both the TWD

and the USD and on NIM expansion. We still prefer privately-owned banks

over SOE banks because we believe newly replaced management of SOE

banks will clean up political lending in the balance sheet this year.

-100

-50

0

50

100

Ja

n-1

7

Feb

-17

Mar-

17

Apr-

17

May-1

7

Ju

n-1

7

Ju

l-17

Aug

-17

Sep

-17

Oct-

17

No

v-1

7

De

c-1

7

(NT$bn)

QFII monthly fund flow

Page 2: TAIWAN Taiwan Strategy - jrj.com.cnpg.jrj.com.cn/acc/Res/CN_RES/INVEST/2018/1/3/8bebec7c-ff...2018/01/03  · Non -tech: We continue to stay defensive in Taiwan non , preferring companies

Macquarie Research Taiwan Strategy

3 January 2018 2

Fig 1 Macquarie Taiwan top buy and short picks

Mkt Cap CP TP TSR Ticker Company Rating (US$m) (LC) (LC) (%)

Top Buy

Tech 2330 TT TSMC O 206,959 229.5 300.0 34% 2317 TT Hon Hai* O 55,733 95.2 200.0 115% 2311 TT ASE O 11,375 38.2 45.5 24% 2408 TT Nanya Tech* O 7,979 76.2 111.0 49% 6488 TT GlobalWafers O 6,152 397.5 480.0 23% 1590 TT AirTAC O 3,356 535.0 644.0 22% 6239 TT Powertech O 2,319 88.0 120.0 42% 4966 TT Parade O 1,542 589.0 610.0 4% 2449 TT KYEC O 1,261 30.3 34.0 17% 6414 TT Ennoconn Corp O 1,150 450.0 524.0 19% 6285 TT Wistron NeWeb O 1,073 85.5 97.0 18%

Non-Tech 9917 TT Taiwan Secom O 1,404 91.6 100.0 14% 2634 TT AIDC O 1,190 37.1 54.0 49% 1527 TT Basso Industry O 306 66.7 150.0 131%

Financial 2891 TT CTBC Holding O 13,517 20.5 22.0 13% 2884 TT E.Sun FHC O 6,528 18.9 21.0 14%

Top Short

Tech 2357 TT Asustek U 6,971 279.5 213.0 -19% 2303 TT UMC U 6,191 14.2 11.1 -19% 2395 TT Advantech U 5,092 210.5 166.0 -18% 3552 TT Tung Thih Electronic U 503 172.0 115.0 -31%

Non-Tech 6505 TT FPCC U 37,371 115.5 88.0 -19% 8464 TT Nien Made Enterprise U 3,181 318.0 210.0 -31% 9910 TT Feng Tay U 3,072 135.5 84.0 -34% 1476 TT Eclat Textile* U 2,760 297.5 190.0 -33% 1477 TT Makalot U 889 125.0 84.0 -28%

Financial 2886 TT Mega FHC U 11,153 24.1 19.0 -15%

Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, January 2018. Close price based on Dec 29, 2017. * Also in Macquarie Marquee buy/short idea list

TAIEX in January – ten-year average: down 1.8%

In the past ten years, January returns of the TAIEX have averaged a decline of 1.8%, with evenly

split up and down years (although 5 out of the last 7 were up). February through May all have

positive 10-year average returns.

Fig 2 Taiex trend 2010-17 (breaking out of the range)

Source: TEJ, Macquarie Research, January 2018

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

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Macquarie Research Taiwan Strategy

3 January 2018 3

Fig 3 Relative performance (re TAIEX) by sectors, 2015 vs. 2016 and 2017

Fig 4 Sector fund flow (2015 vs. 2016 and 2017)

Source: TEJ, Macquarie Research, January 2018 Source: TEJ, Macquarie Research, January 2018

Fig 5 Non-tech subsector share price performance (re TAIEX), 2017

Source: TEJ, Macquarie Research, January 2018

Fig 6 QFII monthly fund flow Fig 7 QFII monthly fund flow (2016-2017)

Source: TEJ, Macquarie Research, January 2018 Source: TEJ, Macquarie Research, January 2018

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

Non-Tech Financial Tech

2015 2016 2017

(20.0)

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

Tech Non-tech Financial

(NT$bn)

2015 2016 2017

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Pa

per

and P

ulp

Sh

ipp

ing &

Tra

ns

To

urism

Ele

c. M

achin

ery

Gla

ss &

Cera

mic

s

Ele

c. &

Cable

Foods

Iron a

nd S

teel

Tra

din

g &

Cons.

Te

xitle

s

Bu

ildin

g &

Cons

Oil,

Ga

s a

nd E

lec

Pla

stics

Au

tom

obile

Cem

ent

Rubber

Chem

. B

iote

ch

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

(NT$bn)

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

Ja

n-1

6

Feb

-16

Ma

r-1

6

Apr-

16

May-1

6

Ju

n-1

6

Ju

l-16

Aug

-16

Sep

-16

Oct-

16

No

v-1

6

De

c-1

6

Ja

n-1

7

Feb

-17

Ma

r-1

7

Apr-

17

May-1

7

Ju

n-1

7

Ju

l-17

Aug

-17

Sep

-17

Oct-

17

No

v-1

7

De

c-1

7

(NT$bn)

QFII monthly fund flow

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Macquarie Research Taiwan Strategy

3 January 2018 4

Fig 8 QFII holdings Fig 9 QFII holdings – Tech/Non-tech/Financial

Source: TEJ, Macquarie Research, January 2018 Source: TEJ, Macquarie Research, January 2018

Fig 10 Taiwan dividend yields 2005-2017 by tech/non-tech/financials

Fig 11 Trading PE (x) by subsectors

Source: TEJ, Macquarie Research, January 2018 Source: TEJ, Macquarie Research, January 2018

Fig 12 NT$ / US$ exchange rate Fig 13 Currency movement

Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, January 2018 Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, January 2018

25

27

29

31

33

35

37

39

41

43

45

(%)

-

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

(%)

Tech Non-tech Financial

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

(%)

Taiex Tech Non-tech Financial

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

20

11

/01

20

11

/04

20

11

/07

20

11

/10

20

12

/01

20

12

/04

20

12

/07

20

12

/10

20

13

/01

20

13

/04

20

13

/07

20

13

/10

20

14

/01

20

14

/04

20

14

/07

20

14

/10

20

15

/01

20

15

/04

20

15

/07

20

15

/10

20

16

/01

20

16

/04

20

16

/07

20

16

/10

20

17

/01

20

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/04

20

17

/07

20

17

/10

Tech Non-tech Financial

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

USDTWD Curncy

dep

reciation

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

TWD KRW JPY CNY

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Macquarie Research Taiwan Strategy

3 January 2018 5

Fig 14 GDP growth (YoY) Fig 15 Export growth rate (YoY)

Source: DGBAS, Macquarie Research, January 2018 Source: DGBAS, Macquarie Research, January 2018

Fig 16 Global semiconductor revenue growth Fig 17 Taiwan semiconductor revenue growth (NT$)

Source: WSTS, Macquarie Research, January 2018

Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, January 2018 Note: Taiwan Semiconductor revenue includes: TSMC, UMC, ASE, SPIL.

Fig 18 One-year deposit rate (1985-present) Fig 19 One-year deposit rate (2015-present)

Source: DGBAS, TEJ, Macquarie Research, January 2018 Source: DGBAS, TEJ, Macquarie Research, January 2018

-1.57%

10.63%

3.80%

2.06% 2.20%

4.02%

0.81%1.40%

2.58% 2.29%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E

DGBAS forecast

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Ja

n-1

5

Mar-

15

May-1

5

Ju

l-15

Sep

-15

No

v-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Mar-

16

May-1

6

Ju

l-16

Sep

-16

No

v-1

6

Ja

n-1

7

Mar-

17

May-1

7

Ju

l-17

Sep

-17

No

v-1

7

(%)

Export growth in NTD Export growth in USD

-2%

5%

10%

0%1%

19.8%

10.5%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E

Global Semiconductor revenue growth

12%

16%

23%

9%

7%

3.0%

11.8%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E

Taiwan Semiconductor revenue growth

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

(%)

One-year time deposit rate

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30

1.35

1.40

(%)

One-year time deposit rate

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Macquarie Research Taiwan Strategy

3 January 2018 6

Fig 20 Retail sales Fig 21 Consumer confidence index

Source: MOEA, TEJ, Macquarie Research, January 2018 Source: DGBAS, TEJ, Macquarie Research, January 2018

Fig 22 Mainland visitors to TW and YoY – annual data

Fig 23 Mainland visitors to TW and YoY – monthly data

Source: Taiwan Tourism, Macquarie Research, January 2018 Source: Taiwan Tourism, Macquarie Research, January 2018

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17

(NT$bn)

Retail sales yoy growth - 3MMA - (RHS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Consumer confidence index

Dec-17: 86.05

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

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0

500

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16

Mainland visitors to TW YoY (RHS)

K people

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Macquarie Research Taiwan Strategy

3 January 2018 7

Fig 24 Plant production location and sales to the US market (analysts’ estimates)

A – by highest exposure to products exported to the US B – by highest expose to China production base

Plant location Sales to the Plant location Sales to the

Company Ticker Taiwan China RoW US market Company Ticker Taiwan China RoW US market

Eclat 1476 TT 25% 0% 75% 80% Quanta 2382 TT 0% 100% 0% 35% Makalot 1477 TT 0% 7% 93% 80% Wistron 3231 TT 0% 100% 0% 35% Toung Loong Textile 4401 TT 95% 0% 5% 80% Pegatron 4938 TT 0% 95% 5% 40% Feng Tay 9910 TT 0% 14% 86% 80% Alpha Network 3380 TT 10% 90% 0% 43% CUB 2231 TT 80% 20% 0% 70% Topkey 4536 TT 10% 90% 0% 40% Wistron Neweb 6285 TT 25% 75% 0% 55% Catcher 2474 TT 10% 90% 0% 34% Basso 1527 TT 100% 0% 0% 50% GIS 6456 TT 10% 90% 0% 33% King Slide 2059 TT 100% 0% 0% 45% AirTAC 1590 TT 10% 90% 0% 2% Accton 2345 TT 15% 85% 0% 45% Asia Cement 1102 TT 10% 90% 0% 0% AIDC 2634 TT 100% 0% 0% 45% Yungtay 1507 TT 10% 90% 0% 0% Alpha Network 3380 TT 10% 90% 0% 43% Ton Yi 9907 TT 10% 90% 0% 0% Pegatron 4938 TT 0% 95% 5% 40% Accton 2345 TT 15% 85% 0% 45% Topkey 4536 TT 10% 90% 0% 40% Taiwan Cement 1101 TT 15% 85% 0% 0% TSMC 2330 TT 92% 5% 3% 35% Inventec 2356 TT 0% 80% 20% 35% Inventec 2356 TT 0% 80% 20% 35% Compal 2324 TT 0% 80% 20% 30% Quanta 2382 TT 0% 100% 0% 35% Hon Hai 2317 TT 0% 80% 20% 20% Wistron 3231 TT 0% 100% 0% 35% Tung Thih 3552 TT 20% 80% 0% 8% FTC 1434 TT 16% 48% 36% 35% Wistron Neweb 6285 TT 25% 75% 0% 55% EVA Air 2618 TT 100% 0% 0% 35% BizLink 3665 TT 0% 60% 40% 33% Catcher 2474 TT 10% 90% 0% 34% Epistar 2448 TT 40% 60% 0% 23% BizLink 3665 TT 0% 60% 40% 33% Delta 2308 TT 15% 60% 25% 15% GIS 6456 TT 10% 90% 0% 33% Giant 9920 TT 45% 50% 5% 27% ASE 2311 TT 48% 44% 8% 30% Advantech 2395 TT 50% 50% 0% 25% Compal 2324 TT 0% 80% 20% 30% Ginko 8406 TT 50% 50% 0% 0% Acer 2353 TT na na na 30% FTC 1434 TT 16% 48% 36% 35% TPK 3673 TT 95% 5% 0% 27% ASE 2311 TT 48% 44% 8% 30% China Air 2610 TT 100% 0% 0% 27% Everlight 2393 TT 60% 40% 0% 23% Giant 9920 TT 45% 50% 5% 27% FENC 1402 TT 65% 35% 0% 7% Merida 9921 TT 70% 30% 0% 27% Merida 9921 TT 70% 30% 0% 27% UMC 2303 TT 69% 12% 19% 25% CUB 2231 TT 80% 20% 0% 70% SPIL 2325 TT 88% 12% 0% 25% NPC 1303 TT 76% 16% 8% 12% Advantech 2395 TT 50% 50% 0% 25% FCFC 1326 TT 84% 16% 0% 12% HTC 2498 TT 95% 5% 0% 25% FPC 1301 TT 85% 15% 0% 12% Everlight 2393 TT 60% 40% 0% 23% Feng Tay 9910 TT 0% 14% 86% 80% Epistar 2448 TT 40% 60% 0% 23% UMC 2303 TT 69% 12% 19% 25% Largan 3008 TT 90% 10% 0% 22% SPIL 2325 TT 88% 12% 0% 25% Hon Hai 2317 TT 0% 80% 20% 20% KYEC 2449 TT 88% 12% 0% 15% Asustek 2357 TT na na na 20% Largan 3008 TT 90% 10% 0% 22% Delta 2308 TT 15% 60% 25% 15% Transcend 2451 TT 90% 10% 0% 15% Chroma 2360 TT 100% 0% 0% 15% Powertech 6239 TT 88% 10% 2% 15% KYEC 2449 TT 88% 12% 0% 15% AUO 2409 TT 85% 10% 5% 10% Transcend 2451 TT 90% 10% 0% 15% Hiwin 2049 TT 80% 10% 10% 7% Powertech 6239 TT 88% 10% 2% 15% CTCI 9933 TT 85% 10% 5% 3% Innolux 3481 TT 95% 5% 0% 12% Makalot 1477 TT 0% 7% 93% 80% FPC 1301 TT 85% 15% 0% 12% TSMC 2330 TT 92% 5% 3% 35% NPC 1303 TT 76% 16% 8% 12% TPK 3673 TT 95% 5% 0% 27% FCFC 1326 TT 84% 16% 0% 12% HTC 2498 TT 95% 5% 0% 25% FPCC 6505 TT 100% 0% 0% 12% Innolux 3481 TT 95% 5% 0% 12% Nanya Tech 2408 TT 100% 0% 0% 10% Eclat 1476 TT 25% 0% 75% 80% AUO 2409 TT 85% 10% 5% 10% TLT 4401 TT 95% 0% 5% 80% Phison 8299 TT 100% 0% 0% 10% Basso 1527 TT 100% 0% 0% 50% Tung Thih 3552 TT 20% 80% 0% 8% King Slide 2059 TT 100% 0% 0% 45% Hiwin 2049 TT 80% 10% 10% 7% AIDC 2634 TT 100% 0% 0% 45% Mediatek 2454 TT na na na 7% EVA Air 2618 TT 100% 0% 0% 35% FENC 1402 TT 65% 35% 0% 7% China Air 2610 TT 100% 0% 0% 27% Vanguard 5347 TT 100% 0% 0% 3% Chroma 2360 TT 100% 0% 0% 15% St Shine 1565 TT 100% 0% 0% 3% FPCC 6505 TT 100% 0% 0% 12% CTCI 9933 TT 85% 10% 5% 3% Nanya Tech 2408 TT 100% 0% 0% 10% AirTAC 1590 TT 10% 90% 0% 2% Phison 8299 TT 100% 0% 0% 10% PChome 9922 TT 100% 0% 0% 2% Vanguard 5347 TT 100% 0% 0% 3% Taiwan Cement 1101 TT 15% 85% 0% 0% St Shine 1565 TT 100% 0% 0% 3% Asia Cement 1102 TT 10% 90% 0% 0% PChome 9922 TT 100% 0% 0% 2% Yungtay 1507 TT 10% 90% 0% 0% Taiwan SECOM 9917 TT 100% 0% 0% 0% Ginko 8406 TT 50% 50% 0% 0% Momo 9923 TT 100% 0% 0% 0% Ton Yi 9907 TT 10% 90% 0% 0% Addcn 9924 TT 100% 0% 0% 0% Taiwan SECOM 9917 TT 100% 0% 0% 0% Kerry TJ 9925 TT 100% 0% 0% 0% Momo 9923 TT 100% 0% 0% 0% Acer 2353 TT na na na 30% Addcn 9924 TT 100% 0% 0% 0% Asustek 2357 TT na na na 20% Kerry TJ 9925 TT 100% 0% 0% 0% Mediatek 2454 TT na na na 7%

Source: Companies, Macquarie Research, January 2018

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Macquarie Research Taiwan Strategy

3 January 2018 8

Fig 25 Valuation comparison - Tech

Mkt Cap Last TP TSR EPS (local $/¢) PER (X)

P/BV (X)

ROE (%)

Div yield (%) Ticker Company Reco. (US$m) Close (NTD) (%) 16A 17E 18E 16A 17E 18E 16A 17E 18E 16A 17E 18E 16A 17E 18E

Tech 24.2 19.3 15.5 3.7 3.3 2.9 16.4 17.6 19.9 3.4 3.6 4.4 Semiconductor 30.5 20.8 16.5 4.2 3.3 2.9 16.1 17.6 20.2 2.8 3.1 3.9 2330 TT TSMC O 206,959 229.5 300.0 34% 12.89 13.15 15.48 18.0 17.7 15.0 4.3 3.9 3.5 25.6 23.4 24.7 3.0 3.1 3.6 2311 TT ASE O 11,375 38.2 45.5 24% 2.73 2.73 3.18 14.0 14.0 12.0 1.8 1.6 1.5 12.8 12.0 12.6 3.8 4.5 5.2 6239 TT Powertech O 2,319 88.0 120.0 42% 6.20 7.90 10.00 14.1 11.1 8.8 1.9 2.0 1.9 13.9 17.5 21.8 4.6 5.8 7.3 2449 TT KYEC O 1,261 30.3 34.0 17% 2.56 2.12 3.27 12.1 14.6 9.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 12.9 10.2 14.9 5.9 4.8 7.4 6488 TT GlobalWafers O 6,152 397.5 480.0 23% 2.54 12.29 27.02 156.8 32.5 14.8 9.3 5.2 4.2 5.8 20.7 31.3 0.7 1.8 4.9 6415 TT Silergy O 2,034 680.0 780.0 16% 18.59 22.21 30.00 37.0 30.9 22.9 7.0 6.1 5.1 23.0 21.4 24.2 0.8 1.2 1.6 2408 TT Nanya Tech O 7,979 76.2 111.0 49% 8.63 8.47 12.00 9.0 9.2 6.5 2.5 2.1 1.7 33.8 24.5 28.9 1.9 3.3 4.6 6510 TT CHPT O 1,248 1145.0 1500.0 32% 20.05 24.32 42.36 55.1 45.4 26.1 12.5 6.5 5.4 22.3 18.3 22.7 0.7 0.9 1.6 4966 TT Parade O 1,542 589.0 610.0 4% 18.07 25.57 29.12 32.0 22.6 19.9 6.0 5.4 4.7 19.4 24.7 25.3 0.0 0.0 2.6 3105 TT Win Semi O 3,915 283.0 370.0 32% 7.30 9.00 13.10 38.7 31.4 21.6 6.5 5.7 4.9 17.9 19.3 24.4 0.2 1.6 1.9 2454 TT MediaTek O 15,831 294.0 400.0 39% 15.16 11.54 19.34 19.2 25.3 15.1 1.9 1.9 1.8 9.8 7.4 12.1 3.3 2.6 4.3 2337 TT Macronix O 2,710 44.2 61.0 38% (0.14) 3.34 4.39 nmf 13.0 9.9 4.2 3.3 2.5 (1.3) 24.9 28.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 2303 TT UMC U 6,191 14.2 11.1 -19% 0.67 0.74 0.38 21.1 19.2 37.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 3.8 4.2 2.2 3.5 3.3 1.7 5347 TT Vanguard U 3,531 66.0 53.5 -14% 3.38 2.73 2.96 18.6 23.1 21.3 3.6 3.6 3.5 19.7 15.7 16.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 2325 TT SPIL N 5,280 50.3 47.0 -4% 3.19 2.70 3.17 15.7 18.5 15.8 2.4 2.2 2.1 14.5 12.4 13.8 3.5 3.0 3.5 3034 TT Novatek U 2,367 113.5 90.0 -15% 8.22 7.86 8.33 14.0 14.6 13.8 2.5 2.5 2.3 17.7 16.9 17.4 6.1 5.8 6.2 8299 TT Phison U 1,966 292.0 297.0 8% 24.66 30.61 26.95 11.9 9.6 10.9 2.5 2.5 2.3 22.5 26.0 21.8 4.8 5.9 5.2 Brand/ODM/EMS 13.4 13.8 11.1 1.3 1.3 1.2 10.3 9.6 11.8 5.7 5.6 6.6 2317 TT Hon Hai O 55,733 95.2 200.0 115% 8.51 8.45 13.24 11.2 11.2 7.2 1.5 1.4 1.3 14.3 13.3 18.9 4.7 4.7 7.4 4938 TT Pegatron N 6,409 72.0 61.0 -8% 7.48 6.01 6.12 9.6 12.0 11.8 1.3 1.3 1.2 13.0 10.5 10.5 6.9 6.9 6.7 2357 TT Asustek U 6,971 279.5 213.0 -19% 25.84 19.30 19.35 10.8 14.4 14.4 1.1 1.1 1.1 11.0 7.9 7.7 6.1 4.5 4.5 2356 TT Inventec O 2,954 23.8 28.1 25% 1.57 1.87 2.25 15.4 12.9 10.8 1.6 1.5 1.5 10.1 12.1 14.2 6.0 7.0 8.4 2324 TT Compal N 3,154 21.3 18.9 -6% 1.88 1.43 2.36 11.2 14.8 8.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 7.8 6.1 10.3 5.7 5.7 7.4 2382 TT Quanta N 8,086 61.9 56.0 -4% 3.93 4.02 4.45 15.8 15.4 13.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 11.4 11.6 12.6 5.7 5.7 5.7 3231 TT Wistron N 2,222 24.0 21.6 -5% 1.21 1.48 2.16 19.7 16.1 11.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 4.4 5.8 8.4 4.9 5.0 6.4 2353 TT Acer U 2,482 24.2 16.6 -29% (1.62) 0.83 1.04 nmf 28.6 23.0 1.3 1.3 1.2 (7.9) 4.4 5.4 2.1 2.5 2.9 2498 TT HTC O 2,082 73.1 85.0 16% (12.85) (8.23) (4.95) nmf nmf nmf 1.2 1.3 1.4 (18.1) (13.6) (8.9) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Component 18.1 17.7 14.6 3.5 3.4 2.9 18.5 19.4 21.0 3.6 3.7 4.4 2059 TT King Slide N 1,308 400.5 400.0 1% 16.49 10.91 19.98 24.4 36.9 20.1 4.4 4.7 4.0 18.8 12.4 21.6 2.1 1.4 2.5 3552 TT Tung Thih U 503 172.0 115.0 -31% 14.22 5.78 7.69 12.1 29.8 22.4 3.5 3.6 3.3 30.3 11.9 15.4 4.3 1.7 2.3 2231 TT CUB N 980 274.0 304.0 13% 11.03 10.35 13.21 25.8 27.4 21.5 10.0 11.7 9.4 41.5 39.8 49.1 2.5 2.2 3.0 2451 TT Transcend O 1,209 82.7 96.5 24% 6.69 6.91 8.04 12.4 12.0 10.3 1.8 1.7 1.7 14.1 14.5 16.4 7.2 7.5 8.7 3189 TT Kinsus U 834 54.2 45.0 -15% 5.01 2.28 3.71 10.9 24.0 14.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 7.8 3.5 5.7 5.5 2.3 3.7 2393 TT Everlight O 676 45.0 65.0 51% 4.12 4.10 4.83 11.0 11.0 9.4 1.6 1.2 1.2 11.8 12.4 12.8 6.4 6.4 6.4 6456 TT GIS O 2,330 199.0 352.0 82% 9.05 22.71 29.31 21.9 8.7 6.8 5.0 2.7 2.1 24.4 40.0 35.1 2.0 4.9 6.3 6269 TT Flexium N 1,200 106.5 122.0 18% 8.54 9.22 10.16 13.0 12.0 10.9 2.0 2.2 1.9 14.8 17.4 18.6 2.9 3.3 3.7 2383 TT Elite Material O 1,124 101.5 160.0 62% 8.70 9.36 12.79 12.0 11.1 8.1 3.2 3.2 2.6 27.5 28.6 35.2 4.5 4.9 6.6 4958 TT Zhen Ding N 1,813 65.5 74.0 18% 4.29 6.21 6.72 15.4 10.7 9.9 1.4 1.6 1.5 8.6 13.9 15.5 3.3 4.8 5.2 6285 TT Wistron NeWeb O 1,073 85.5 97.0 18% 5.71 5.96 6.48 15.0 14.4 13.2 2.3 2.2 2.1 16.0 15.9 16.0 4.2 4.2 4.6 2345 TT Accton O 2,085 106.0 115.0 12% 3.51 4.74 5.73 31.7 23.5 19.5 6.8 7.7 7.0 22.2 30.9 37.6 2.8 3.8 4.6 3380 TT Alpha Networks N 367 23.8 21.1 -7% 1.40 1.47 1.63 17.3 16.4 14.9 1.2 1.3 1.2 7.2 7.7 8.5 4.3 4.5 5.0 2474 TT Catcher N 8,689 328.0 291.0 -8% 28.50 28.56 30.70 11.6 11.6 10.8 2.1 1.9 1.7 18.5 17.0 16.4 3.0 3.0 3.3 3673 TT TPK O 1,165 83.6 113.0 35% (4.11) 6.49 7.45 nmf 12.9 11.2 1.0 0.9 0.8 (4.9) 7.2 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 2448 TT Epistar U 1,697 45.2 23.3 -48% (3.24) (1.33) (1.34) nmf nmf nmf 0.9 1.0 1.1 (6.6) (2.8) (3.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 3481 TT Innolux N 4,207 12.4 13.6 12% 0.19 3.61 2.37 66 3 5.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 14.9 9.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2308 TT Delta N 12,342 143.5 134.0 -3% 7.24 7.43 8.40 19.5 19.0 16.8 3.0 3.2 3.0 15.1 16.3 18.6 3.5 3.6 4.1 3008 TT Largan U 19,484 4020.0 3000.0 -23% 168.94 212.43 250.72 25.2 20.0 17.0 7.4 6.0 4.9 32.5 33.4 32.1 1.5 1.9 2.2 2409 TT AUO U 4,052 12.4 10.0 -16% 0.81 3.33 0.82 15.2 3.7 15.0 0.6 0.6 0.6 3.9 15.6 3.7 3.2 3.2 3.2 3665 TT Bizlink N 1,116 278.5 268.0 -1% 9.14 10.35 13.41 30.8 27.3 21.0 5.1 4.3 3.9 18.7 18.5 19.4 2.2 2.5 3.2 Automation/IPC 41.5 27.3 21.1 6.4 5.8 5.3 18.2 22.6 26.8 1.7 2.3 2.9 1590 TT AirTAC O 3,356 535.0 644.0 22% 10.72 18.55 23.34 48.8 28.2 22.4 8.8 6.6 5.8 18.4 26.8 27.8 1.0 1.8 2.3 2360 TT Chroma O 2,250 162.0 145.0 -7% 4.55 6.57 8.03 35.1 24.3 19.9 5.7 5.6 5.2 17.2 23.3 27.0 2.1 3.1 3.8 6414 TT Ennoconn Corp O 1,150 450.0 524.0 19% 14.01 15.12 23.90 31.7 29.4 18.6 5.4 6.3 6.0 22.4 20.2 33.2 2.3 2.4 3.8 2049 TT Hiwin N 3,060 322.0 324.0 2% 4.87 10.60 14.75 65.7 30.2 21.7 6.4 5.4 4.6 9.6 19.3 23.1 0.5 1.1 1.6 2395 TT Advantech U 5,092 210.5 166.0 -18% 8.14 8.75 9.47 26.4 24.6 22.7 5.9 5.3 5.0 23.4 23.2 23.0 2.7 2.9 3.1

Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, January 2018, Priced as of Dec 29 2017

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Macquarie Research Taiwan Strategy

3 January 2018 9

Fig 26 Valuation comparison – Non-tech/Financial

Mkt Cap Last TP TSR EPS (local $/¢) PER (X) P/BV (X) ROE (%) Div yield (%)

Ticker Company Reco. (US$m) Close (NTD) (%) 16A 17E 18E 16A 17E 18E 16A 17E 18E 16A 17E 18E 16A 17E 18E

Non-Tech 23.8 21.7 19.6 5.0 4.4 4.2 21.3 22.4 20.3 3.8 4.0 4.0 Aerospace 13.7 15.8 12.6 2.3 2.2 2.0 16.9 13.9 16.3 4.6 4.3 5.2 2634 TT AIDC O 1,190 37.1 54.0 49% 2.21 2.00 2.70 16.9 18.7 13.9 2.9 2.6 2.4 17.5 14.7 18.0 2.6 2.8 3.8 4536 TT Topkey Corp N 276 89.8 105.0 23% 8.58 7.00 8.00 10.5 12.9 11.3 1.7 1.7 1.6 16.3 13.2 14.6 6.7 5.8 6.6 Buildings/Construction/Security 67.5 18.8 20.4 4.4 4.1 4.1 6.1 22.4 19.9 3.8 4.8 4.6 9917 TT Taiwan Secom O 1,404 91.6 100.0 14% 1.36 4.90 4.50 67.5 18.8 20.4 4.4 4.1 4.1 6.1 22.4 19.9 3.8 4.8 4.6 Industrial 16.9 20.0 14.6 4.2 4.1 3.7 24.1 19.4 25.5 5.0 5.2 6.1 1527 TT Basso Industry O 306 66.7 150.0 131% 6.88 3.00 8.30 9.5 21.8 7.9 2.4 2.5 2.2 26.3 11.4 29.7 6.3 5.9 7.6 8464 TT Nien Made Enterprise U 3,181 318.0 210.0 -31% 12.59 12.15 14.00 25.7 26.6 23.1 8.2 7.8 7.2 32.9 30.0 32.3 3.1 3.2 3.7 9933 TT CTCI N 1,164 45.2 48.0 13% 2.91 3.85 3.50 15.5 11.7 12.9 2.0 1.9 1.9 13.0 16.7 14.6 5.8 6.4 7.0 Petrochem 13.6 16.8 19.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 18.5 14.0 11.9 5.0 4.6 4.0 1301 TT Formosa Plastics N 21,119 98.7 90.0 -4% 6.19 6.10 5.70 15.9 16.1 17.2 2.0 1.9 1.9 13.1 12.2 11.1 4.7 4.6 4.3 6505 TT FPCC U 37,371 115.5 88.0 -19% 7.95 6.30 5.20 14.5 18.3 22.1 3.5 3.5 3.5 26.3 19.3 15.9 5.2 4.4 3.7 1303 TT Nan Ya Plastics U 20,706 77.9 64.0 -13% 6.16 5.00 4.40 12.5 15.4 17.5 1.8 1.7 1.7 14.7 11.5 9.8 4.3 4.8 4.2 1326 TT FCFC U 20,813 103.0 84.0 -14% 7.48 6.20 5.60 13.8 16.7 18.5 1.9 1.9 1.8 14.5 11.3 10.1 5.4 4.5 4.1 Conglomerates 18.9 15.3 14.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 4.5 5.2 5.2 3.4 4.1 4.2 1402 TT FENC O 4,870 26.8 32.5 25% 1.18 1.50 1.70 22.7 17.9 15.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 3.3 4.2 4.9 3.0 3.6 4.1 1434 TT Formosa Taffeta N 1,789 31.3 31.5 5% 2.07 2.45 2.30 15.1 12.8 13.6 0.8 0.8 0.7 5.8 6.1 5.6 3.8 4.5 4.3 Textile & Footwear 19.9 22.3 19.7 5.0 4.8 4.5 25.9 22.1 23.5 4.2 3.7 4.2 4401 TT Toung Loong Textile N 293 71.8 78.0 14% 4.37 5.00 5.60 16.4 14.4 12.8 3.3 3.1 2.9 20.6 22.5 23.7 5.0 5.7 6.4 1476 TT Eclat Textile U 2,760 297.5 190.0 -33% 13.34 11.60 13.60 22.3 25.6 21.8 5.4 5.3 4.9 27.2 20.9 23.2 3.5 3.0 3.5 9910 TT Feng Tay U 3,072 135.5 84.0 -34% 6.67 6.50 7.00 20.5 21.0 19.5 6.6 6.2 5.7 33.1 30.4 30.4 3.8 3.7 4.0 1477 TT Makalot U 889 125.0 84.0 -28% 7.38 6.20 7.10 17.0 20.3 17.7 3.0 3.1 3.0 17.3 15.0 17.0 5.4 4.5 5.2 Ecommerce 22.1 31.9 19.5 4.7 4.7 4.7 21.8 20.0 18.5 4.1 3.5 3.3 5287 TT Addcn O 348 239.0 295.0 29% 13.04 13.37 14.69 18.4 18.0 16.4 5.5 5.7 5.5 29.8 31.1 34.3 4.8 5.6 6.1 8044 TT PChome Online U 567 137.0 100.0 -26% 6.54 2.56 (0.31) 21.6 55.1 nmf 3.2 3.3 3.7 15.0 5.8 (0.8) 3.3 1.3 0.0 8454 TT Momo.com N 1,062 217.5 210.0 0% 8.33 9.69 9.75 26.4 22.7 22.6 5.4 5.1 4.9 20.7 23.0 22.1 4.2 3.7 3.7 Contact lenses 20.4 24.3 22.6 5.7 5.4 4.9 25.7 20.6 20.8 2.9 2.5 2.7 8406 TT Ginko U 696 217.0 145.0 -31% 16.37 11.98 12.10 13.6 18.5 18.3 2.0 1.9 1.8 15.1 10.7 10.3 3.1 2.7 2.7 1565 TT St Shine U 1,662 975.0 500.0 -46% 35.26 32.00 35.70 27.3 30.1 26.9 9.4 8.9 8.0 36.4 30.4 31.3 2.8 2.4 2.7 Consumer 34.0 23.3 25.1 8.9 6.8 6.6 26.8 38.5 27.2 2.2 4.0 2.9 1216 TT UPE O 12,856 66.0 70.0 12% 2.56 6.66 2.94 26.3 10.1 22.8 4.0 3.2 3.4 15.2 35.3 14.3 3.1 6.2 3.7 5903 TT Taiwan FamilyMart O 1,370 178.0 250.0 44% 6.17 7.06 8.11 29.4 25.7 22.4 8.1 7.4 6.8 28.6 30.3 31.7 2.7 3.1 3.6 5904 TT Poya O 1,219 372.5 490.0 35% 12.02 14.56 17.94 30.9 25.5 20.7 11.5 10.3 9.0 39.8 42.7 46.4 2.8 3.4 4.3 2723 TT Gourmet Master O 2,285 435.0 400.0 -7% 10.68 13.21 15.86 39.3 31.8 26.5 8.8 6.9 5.9 21.5 23.3 24.1 1.1 1.4 1.9 8436 TT TCI Co O 856 287.0 290.0 2% 6.00 7.75 9.91 48.0 37.1 29.1 10.3 7.4 6.2 20.6 22.0 23.2 0.5 0.8 1.0 2912 TT President Chain Store N 10,073 284.0 262.0 1% 9.46 29.80 9.81 30.4 9.6 29.3 10.4 5.8 8.5 35.3 77.6 23.6 2.8 8.8 2.9 Financial 14.7 12.6 12.1 1.3 1.2 1.2 9.4 10.3 10.2 4.3 4.9 5.1 2884 TT E.Sun FHC O 6,528 18.9 21.0 14% 1.31 1.55 1.70 14.4 12.2 11.1 1.4 1.3 1.2 10.5 11.0 11.1 2.6 2.8 3.2 2891 TT CTBC Holding O 13,517 20.5 22.0 13% 1.35 1.74 1.81 15.1 11.7 11.3 1.4 1.3 1.3 10.0 11.7 11.7 4.5 5.9 6.2 2886 TT Mega FHC U 11,153 24.1 19.0 -15% 1.65 1.73 1.74 14.7 14.0 13.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 7.7 8.0 7.9 5.9 5.9 5.9

Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, January 2018, Priced as of Dec 29 2017

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Macquarie tech stocks coverage: 2018E P/E vs. subsectors’ growth – Outperforms (in green) and Underperforms (in red)

Source: Macquarie Research, January 2018. Green: Outperform; Red: Underperform; Black: Neutral

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Macquarie non - tech stocks coverage: 2018E P/E vs. subsectors’ Beta – Outperforms (in green) and Underperforms (in red)

Source: Macquarie Research, January 2018. Green: Outperform; Red: Underperform; Black: Neutral

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Macquarie Research Taiwan Strategy

3 January 2018 12

Important disclosures:

Recommendation definitions

Macquarie - Australia/New Zealand Outperform – return >3% in excess of benchmark return Neutral – return within 3% of benchmark return Underperform – return >3% below benchmark return Benchmark return is determined by long term nominal GDP growth plus 12 month forward market dividend yield

Macquarie – Asia/Europe Outperform – expected return >+10% Neutral – expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform – expected return <-10%

Macquarie – South Africa Outperform – expected return >+10% Neutral – expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform – expected return <-10%

Macquarie - Canada Outperform – return >5% in excess of benchmark return Neutral – return within 5% of benchmark return Underperform – return >5% below benchmark return

Macquarie - USA Outperform (Buy) – return >5% in excess of Russell 3000 index return Neutral (Hold) – return within 5% of Russell 3000 index return Underperform (Sell)– return >5% below Russell 3000 index return

Volatility index definition*

This is calculated from the volatility of historical price movements. Very high–highest risk – Stock should be expected to move up or down 60–100% in a year – investors should be aware this stock is highly speculative. High – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 40–60% in a year – investors should be aware this stock could be speculative. Medium – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 30–40% in a year. Low–medium – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 25–30% in a year. Low – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 15–25% in a year. * Applicable to Asia/Australian/NZ/Canada stocks only

Recommendations – 12 months Note: Quant recommendations may differ from Fundamental Analyst recommendations

Financial definitions

All "Adjusted" data items have had the following adjustments made: Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging, IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expense Excluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends & minority interests EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa* ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assets ROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average total assets ROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders funds Gross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation *equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average number of shares All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks are modelled under IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards).

Recommendation proportions – For quarter ending 30 September 2017

AU/NZ Asia RSA USA CA EUR

Outperform 50.38% 56.22% 40.70% 46.21% 63.85% 41.61% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 4.18% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)

Neutral 37.50% 28.16% 43.02% 47.52% 30.00% 39.51% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 2.68% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)

Underperform 12.12% 15.62% 16.28% 6.27% 6.15% 18.88% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 1.08% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)

Company-specific disclosures: Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures.

Analyst certification: We hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. The Analysts responsible for preparing this report receive compensation from Macquarie that is based upon various factors including Macquarie Group Ltd total revenues, a portion of which are generated by Macquarie Group’s Investment Banking activities. 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Macquarie Research Taiwan Strategy

3 January 2018 13

Ltd is to allow all clients that are entitled to have equal access to our research. United Kingdom: In the United Kingdom, research is issued and distributed by Macquarie Capital (Europe) Ltd, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (No. 193905). Germany: In Germany, this research is issued and/or distributed by Macquarie Capital (Europe) Limited, Niederlassung Deutschland, which is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority (No. 193905). and in Germany by BaFin. France: In France, research is issued and distributed by Macquarie Capital (Europe) Ltd, which is authorised and regulated in the United Kingdom by the Financial Conduct Authority (No. 193905). Hong Kong & Mainland China: In Hong Kong, research is issued and distributed by Macquarie Capital Limited, which is licensed and regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission. 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Asia Research Head of Equity Research

Peter Redhead (Global – Head) (44 20) 3037 4263

Jake Lynch (Asia – Head) (852) 3922 3583

David Gibson (Japan – Head) (813) 3512 7880

Conrad Werner (ASEAN – Head) (65) 6601 0182

Automobiles, Auto Parts

Janet Lewis (China, Japan) (813) 3512 7856

Allen Yuan (China) (8621) 2412 9009

James Hong (Korea) (822) 3705 8661

Amit Mishra (India) (9122) 6720 4084

Banks and Financials

Scott Russell (Asia) (852) 3922 3567

Dexter Hsu (China, Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7530

Keisuke Moriyama (Japan) (813) 3512 7476

Chan Hwang (Korea) (822) 3705 8643

Suresh Ganapathy (India) (9122) 6720 4078

Jayden Vantarakis (Indonesia) (6221) 2598 8310

Anand Pathmakanthan (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8833

Gilbert Lopez (Philippines) (632) 857 0892

Ken Ang (Singapore) (65) 6601 0836

Passakorn Linmaneechote (Thailand) (662) 694 7728

Commodities and Basic Materials

Jim Lennon (Global) (44 20) 3037 4271

Polina Diyachkina (Asia, Japan) (813) 3512 7886

Matthew Turner (Global) (44 20) 3037 4340

Vivienne Lloyd (Global) (44 20) 3037 4530

Serafino Capoferri (Global) (44 20) 3037 2517

Lynn Zhao (Global) (86 21) 2412 9035

Yasuhiro Nakada (Japan) (813) 3512 7862

Anna Park (Korea) (822) 3705 8669

Sumangal Nevatia (India) (9122) 6720 4093

Jayden Vantarakis (Indonesia) (6221) 2598 8310

Conglomerates

David Ng (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 1291

Conrad Werner (Singapore) (65) 6601 0182

Gilbert Lopez (Philippines) (632) 857 0892

Consumer, Gaming

Linda Huang (Asia) (852) 3922 4068

Zibo Chen (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 1130

Terence Chang (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3581

Sunny Chow (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3768

Stella Li (China, Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7514

Satsuki Kawasaki (Japan) (813) 3512 7870

Kwang Cho (Korea) (822) 3705 4953

KJ Lee (Korea) (822) 3705 9935

Amit Sinha (India) (9122) 6720 4085

Karisa Magpayo (Philippines) (632) 857 0899

Chalinee Congmuang (Thailand) (662) 694 7993

Robert Pranata (Indonesia) (6221) 2598 8366

Richardo Walujo (Indonesia) (6221) 259 88 369

Emerging Leaders

Jake Lynch (Asia) (852) 3922 3583

Kwang Cho (Korea) (822) 3705 4953

Corinne Jian (Greater China) (8862) 2734 7522

Conrad Werner (ASEAN) (65) 6601 0182

Industrials, Transport and Infrastructure

Patrick Dai (China) (8621) 2412 9082

Eric Zong (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 4749

Kunio Sakaida (Japan) (813) 3512 7873

William Montgomery (Japan) (813) 3512 7864

James Hong (Korea) (822) 3705 8661

Corinne Jian (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7522

Inderjeetsingh Bhatia (India) (9122) 6720 4087

Azita Nazrene (ASEAN) (65) 6601 0560

Internet, Media and Software

Wendy Huang (Asia) (852) 3922 3378

Ivy Luo (Greater China) (852) 3922 1507

Marcus Yang (Greater China) (8862) 2734 7532

David Gibson (Japan) (813) 3512 7880

Soyun Shin (Korea) (822) 3705 8659

Alankar Garude (India) (9122) 6720 4134

Oil, Gas and Petrochemicals

Aditya Suresh (Asia) (852) 3922 1265

Polina Diyachkina (Asia, Japan) (813) 3512 7886

Yasuhiro Nakada (Japan) (813) 3512 7862

Anna Park (Korea) (822) 3705 8669

Corinne Jian (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7522

Yupapan Polpornprasert (Thailand) (662) 694 7729

Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare

Alankar Garude (India) (9122) 6720 4134

Patti Tomaitrichitr (Thailand) (662) 694 7727

Richardo Walujo (Indonesia) (6221) 259 88 369

Property, REIT

Tuck Yin Soong (Asia, Singapore) (65) 6601 0838

David Ng (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 1291

Keisuke Moriyama (Japan) (813) 3512 7476

William Montgomery (Japan) (813) 3512 7864

Corinne Jian (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7522

Abhishek Bhandari (India) (9122) 6720 4088

Aiman Mohamad (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8986

Kervin Sisayan (Philippines) (632) 857 0893

Patti Tomaitrichitr (Thailand) (662) 694 7727

Technology

Damian Thong (Asia, Japan) (813) 3512 7877

Allen Chang (Greater China) (852) 3922 1136

Jeffrey Ohlweiler (Greater China) (8862) 2734 7512

Chris Yu (Greater China) (8621) 2412 9024

Kaylin Tsai (Greater China) (8862) 2734 7523

Lynn Luo (Greater China) (8862) 2734 7534

Patrick Liao (Greater China) (8862) 2734 7515

Verena Jeng (Greater China) (852) 3922 3766

Daniel Kim (Korea) (822) 3705 8641

Abhishek Bhandari (India) (9122) 6720 4088

Telecoms

Allen Chang (Greater China) (852) 3922 1136

Soyun Shin (Korea) (822) 3705 8659

Prem Jearajasingam (ASEAN) (603) 2059 8989

Kervin Sisayan (Philippines) (632) 857 0893

Nathania Nurhalim (Indonesia) (6221) 2598 8365

Utilities, Renewables

Hiroyuki Sakaida (Japan) (813) 3512 6695

Patrick Dai (China) (8621) 2412 9082

Inderjeetsingh Bhatia (India) (9122) 6720 4087

Karisa Magpayo (Philippines) (632) 857 0899

Economics and Macro

Ric Deverell (612) 8232 4307 (Chief Economist & Head of Macro Research)

Peter Eadon-Clarke (Global) (813) 3512 7850

Larry Hu (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3778

Upasana Chachra (India) (9122) 6720 4355

Quantitative, CPG

Gurvinder Brar (Global) (44 20) 3037 4036

Alvin Chao (Asia) (852) 3922 1108

Tracy Chow (Asia) (852) 3922 4285

YingYing Hou (Asia) (852) 3922 5422

Strategy, Country

Viktor Shvets (Asia, Global) (852) 3922 3883

David Ng (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 1291

Peter Eadon-Clarke (Japan) (813) 3512 7850

Chan Hwang (Korea) (822) 3705 8643

Jeffrey Ohlweiler (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7512

Inderjeetsingh Bhatia (India) (9122) 6720 4087

Jayden Vantarakis (Indonesia) (6221) 2598 8310

Anand Pathmakanthan (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8833

Gilbert Lopez (Philippines) (632) 857 0892

Conrad Werner (ASEAN, Singapore) (65) 6601 0182

Passakorn Linmaneechote (Thailand) (662) 694 7728

Find our research at Macquarie: www.macquarieresearch.com Thomson: www.thomson.com/financial Reuters: www.knowledge.reuters.com Bloomberg: MAC GO Factset: http://www.factset.com/home.aspx CapitalIQ www.capitaliq.com Email [email protected] for access

Asia Sales Regional Heads of Sales

Miki Edelman (Global) (1 212) 231 6121

Amelia Mehta (Asia) (65) 6601 0211

Jeff Evans (Boston) (1 617) 598 2508

Jeffrey Shiu (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 2061

Sandeep Bhatia (India) (9122) 6720 4101

Thomas Renz (Geneva) (41 22) 818 7712

Tomohiro Takahashi (Japan) (813) 3512 7823

John Jay Lee (Korea) (822) 3705 9988

Nik Hadi (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8888

Gino C Rojas (Philippines) (632) 857 0861

Regional Heads of Sales cont’d

Paul Colaco (San Francisco) (1 415) 762 5003

Angus Kent (Thailand) (662) 694 7601

Ben Musgrave (UK/Europe) (44 20) 3037 4882

Christina Lee (UK/Europe) (44 20) 3037 4873

Sales Trading

Adam Zaki (Asia) (852) 3922 2002

Stanley Dunda (Indonesia) (6221) 515 1555

Sales Trading cont’d

Suhaida Samsudin (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8888

Michael Santos (Philippines) (632) 857 0813

Chris Reale (New York) (1 212) 231 2555

Marc Rosa (New York) (1 212) 231 2555

Justin Morrison (Singapore) (65) 6601 0288

Daniel Clarke (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7580

Brendan Rake (Thailand) (662) 694 7707

Mike Keen (UK/Europe) (44 20) 3037 4905

This publication was disseminated on 03 January 2018 at 10:20 UTC.