Tackling Climate Change in Florida and the Tackling Climate Change in Florida and the SoutheastSoutheast

Climate Prediction and Assessment Science Workshop

March 4-7, 2008

Chapel Hill, NC

David F. Zierden, Melissa Griffin, and J. J. O’Brien

Florida State Climatologist

Center for Ocean Atmospheric Prediction Studies

The Florida State University

What is a State Climatologist?What is a State Climatologist?

• Originally a NOAA program until 1973

• Most states made it a faculty appointment at the land grant university, title transferred to FSU after a number of years

• Appointed by the University President

• MOU with partners at NOAA NWS and NCDC

• Office certified by the American Association of State Climatologists

• Active partner in the Southeast Climate Consortium

Provide climate services, data, research, and outreach on climate matters to the state of Florida

“Facilitating the effective use of climate information and forecasts in agriculture, forestry, and water resources in the the Southeast U.S.”

Southeast Climate Consortium

Stakeholder involvement and responding to needs has always been key.

Growing interest in climate change issues:

• IPCC 4 and Al Gore

• New administration in Florida

• Changing markets - biofuels and ethanol production

• Carbon credits and markets

• Sustainability

Where do I stand on global warming?Where do I stand on global warming?

ENSO - Based ForecastsENSO - Based Forecasts

El Nino Composite La Nina Composite

Feb. 2007 Feb. 2008

Sources for Local Climate Change InformationSources for Local Climate Change Information

Florida Government:

• www.floridaclimatechange.com

• www.myfloridaclimate.com

Non-governmental organizations:

• NRDC - Florida Climate Alliance (Union of Concerned Scientist)

• Environment Florida

• Center for Science and Public Policy (Texas, North Carolina, Georgia, etc)

• Various websites and blogs (climate science, climate audit, etc.)

No information:

• NOAA CPC, NWS

• Southeast Climate Consortium

• State Climate Office

SECC Climate Change “Fact Sheets”SECC Climate Change “Fact Sheets”

QuickTime™ and aTIFF (LZW) decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

Objectives:

• FOX News - fair and balanced

• Work within IPCC framework

• Focus on local issues, trends, and variability

• Stress uncertainties, both in analysis of past climate and future possibilities

Fact Sheets in draft:

• Climate Change Basics

• Historical trends

• Climate Change and Agriculture

• Adaptation and Mitigation

““Climate Change” versus “Global Warming”Climate Change” versus “Global Warming”

Climate change is ongoing and has many causes, both natural and man-made.

Natural causes:• Changes in solar intensity• Eccentricity in the earth’s orbit and “wobbles”• Vegetation, albedo changes• Volcanic eruptions• Coupled ocean/atmospheric cycles

Man-made causes:• Urbanization• Land use changes (irrigation of semi-arid areas, draining wetlands)• Aerosols• Greenhouse gases

“Global warming” specifically refers to a general warming of the planet due the anthropogenic increase in greenhouses gases.

Unfortunately, “climate change” is now misconstrued as the same as “global warming.”

Modern Day TemperaturesModern Day Temperatures

“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level.”

- IPCC 4

Southeast Temperature TrendsSoutheast Temperature Trends

Annual Average TemperatureAL, FL, GA and all three

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

74

1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year

°F

Ann GAAnn ALAnn FL3-State Avg

Rural Weather StationRural Weather Station

Town is located to the northeast of Eglin AFB, a large expanse of undeveloped forests.

Surrounding countryside consists of pastures, farmland, and pine forests.

Station located at Showel Farms, 3 miles to the east of the city.

Walton County population is very low at around 40,000.

USHCN station (unadjusted data)

Rural Weather StationRural Weather Station

UrbanizationUrbanization

• Station located at Page Field near downtown Fort Myers.

• The city of Fort Myers has experienced tremendous urban sprawl in the last 40 years.

• Lee county population has ballooned from 60,000 to over a half million in the last 40 years.

• USHCN station (unadjusted data)

UrbanizationUrbanization

Land Use ChangeLand Use Change

Small Farming community near the southern shore of Lake Okeechobee.

Station located 2.5 miles south of town at the Agriculture Experiment Station.

Relatively stable population.

USHCN station (unadjusted data)

Data record SHOULD be reflective of predominant climate trends.

Land Use ChangeLand Use Change

Land Use ChangeLand Use ChangeLand cover maps of Florida from the pre-1900’s and from 1993 show the area south of Okeechobee now surrounded by irrigated sugar cane fields.

Mesoscale modeling has shown large summertime temperature differences in the area from differences in land use (Marshall, et al., 2004).

Temperature difference in degrees C

Impact Freezes of the last centuryImpact Freezes of the last century

Freeze Date ENSO State *Dec 1894 Neutral Feb 1899 Neutral Dec 1934 Neutral Jan 1940 Neutral *Dec 1962 Neutral Jan 1977 El Nino Jan 1981 Neutral *Dec 1983 Neutral Jan 1985 Neutral *Dec 1989 Neutral Jan 1997 Neutral

* High Impact

Temperature ExtremesTemperature Extremes

Hurricanes and Global Warming?Hurricanes and Global Warming?

Emanuel (Nature, 2005) –

Hurricane power has increased in recent decades due warmer sea surface temperatures part to global warming

Webster, et al. (Science, 2005) –

The number of category 4 and 5 hurricanes have doubled in the last 30 years, due to global warming.

“Over the long term the effects of changes in society dwarf the effects of any projected changes in tropical cyclones…”

“…claims of linkages between global warming and hurricane impacts are premature…”

- Pielke, et. al., 2005

“Thus large, long-term ‘trends’ in tropical cyclone frequency are primarily manifestations of increased monitoring capabilities and likely not related to any real change in the climate in which they develop.”

- Landsea, 2007

Historic sea level riseHistoric sea level rise

• Estimates of sea level rise around 2 mm/yr (8.5 inches).

• Satellite measurements (altimeters) since 1992 indicate a rise of around 3mm/yr.

• IPCC third assessment report stated "No significant acceleration in the rate of sea level rise during the 20th century has been detected."

• IPCC 4 estimates SLR between 8 and 24 inches by 2100.

Uncertain FutureUncertain Future

IPCC Projections Poor science or practices:

• Projecting changes in global average temperature on local or regional climate

• Downscaling IPCC scenarios (or other GCM output) as input for regional physical or biological systems.

Better approaches:

• Vulnerability or risk assessments

• Sensitivity studies

• Adaptation strategies

• Proposed Center of Excellence for Climate and Society

Global Warming “Myths”Global Warming “Myths”

“Throw out the record books, because global warming is raising temperatures in Florida and across the country,”

- Environment Florida

"In low-lying areas, anticipated sea-level rise could force water to flow horizontally as much as 400 feet or more inland--flooding shoreline homes and hotels and eroding Florida's famous beaches,"

- NRDC

“The Union of Concerned Scientists predicts a three- to 10-degree Fahrenheit rise in winter low and summer high temperatures for Florida as a whole. Northern Florida, the group says, will suffer the most from loss of soil moisture.”

The EndThe End

For more information, visit our websites:

COAPS: www.coaps.fsu.edu

Florida Climate Center: www.coaps.fsu.edu/climate_center

AgClimate : www.agclimate.org