T3 B5 Analysis 1 of 2 Fdr- All Typed and Handwritten Staff Notes in Folder and 3 Withdrawal Notices for Notes

8/14/2019 T3 B5 Analysis 1 of 2 Fdr- All Typed and Handwritten Staff Notes in Folder and 3 Withdrawal Notices for Notes

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Military is out of the calculation

Not a silver bulletN ot a policyEasiest thing to doStand offReally matterTLA M not an option, never going to get actual intelligence


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Your approach to the Taliban. How are you going to put coercive diplomacy to work foryou?State dep artment is carrying o n diplomacy, threatening follow through. But there is noplan in place as to what we are going to do. We are just sitting around waiting foractionable intelligence.What about a sustained, unilateral campaign at times and place of our choosing? We'vehad the Embassy attacks, we've had the Cole attack, we've had the millennium, peopletrying to get into the country to attack us.W hy aren't we following through on this.Did you have high ranking US military officers in these meetings with the Taliban?Would it have mattered?When you issued these ultimatums to the Taliban, did you have an interagency decisionthat the ultimatum w ould be backed up with military force?Did you have actual intelligence against the Taliban? Did you have targets that youcould have taken out?Was the m ilitary married up with diplomacy?We were doing diplomatic steps, but military was not really part of our coercivediplomacy campaignDon't issue ultimatums unless you intend to follow through on them.Can't have a pol mil plan unless the m ilitary is involved.The Cole attack w as an attack on the U.S.Are you able to respond to something that occurred two months previously?Politically, can you do this?


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Public agenda gets married to entrepreneurs who want to carry this out. Need to find anally.Title 10 vs. Title 50Collecting against a non-nation state actor. A virtual stationA transformative event.A lot of creative improvisation, imaginative uses of existing institutions, negligibleinstitutional changes.Big world out there, lots of non-decision decisions.What's the mission organization of the underlying problems?What's the unified command plan?Mission oriented?Strategic plan9-11 story drives substantive findings, those findings drive management prescriptionsPolicy recommendations have to derive linearly from our fact findings. Here's how wegot there!Volcanic driving force on making these changes. A Tectoinic shiftThe community is evolving haltingly but not really addressing its significance.Limping halting progress toward a unified command planThe system is inventing a unified command, but it's ad hocAtrophied intelligence structureWhy no military response to Khobar?


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More presidential role in this, more directionDid GT have the authority to do what was being asked of him?Military always wanted to go in heavy, Weinberg doctrine, Powell doctrine, Slocombeinterview.Reagan's comment on Grenada, double the size, "If Carter had done it with Desert One,he'd be president.Not just military that wants to go in heavy, lessons are not lost on political leadershipRand was doing a lot of work on matching up shooters with observation platformsAC-10 Warthogs, for examplePredator and recon platforms, combining themWhy didn't we use recon or laserball Predator to have B-52's in the air?


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Marine barracks bombing B eirut 1983 occurred during Cold War. Afghan istan sanctuarywas not a Cold War problem. Soviets were gone. Russians had been burned.W ho plausibly proposed and backed an offensive strategy? Who said, we should destroythe sanctuary? N o one. Well, except,... Clarke's D elenda comes close. PolM il planDelenda wo uld have done this.Fall '98 - '99: Clarke andPavitt really thinking about the same strategy. Pavitt said weneeded to destroy the Afghanistan sanctuary, to take it away.CA was just a palliative.Clarke's approach is to keep bom bing until the sanctuary is ended, until we get this right.This goes aw ay until NSP D 9, which is basically the same approach .Use force, similar to w hat we w ere doing in Iraqif we had a target on any given day wewould hit it. W e'd have blanket authorization to go ahead and do this.Delenda committed us to this kind of offensive approach. It was a sustained bom bingcampaign . It might have ended the sanctuary.Would have committed us in writing. Wewould have had to do it and gone ahead until we defeated the enemy.The Afghanistan sanctuary posed the biggest problem.Hadley did articulate regime change in summer 2001.


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WITHDRAWALNOTICE

RG: 148 Exposition, Anniversary, and Mem orial Comm issionsSERIES: Team 3,9/11 Commission

N N D PROJECT NU MB ER: 52100 FOIA CASE NUM BER: 31107WITHDRAWAL DATE: 12/03/2008

BOX: 00002 FOLDER: 0001 TAB: 18 DOC ID: 31207906COPIES: 1 PAGES: 1

The item identified below has been w ithdrawn from this file:FOLDER TITLE: Analysis & Recommendations [Iof2]DOCUMENT DATE: 01/01/2004 DOC UM ENT TYPE: Note/NotesFROM:TO:SUBJECT: handwritten notes

This document has been withdrawn for the following reason(s):9/11 Classified Inform ation


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WITHDRAWALNOTICE

RG: 148 Expo sition, Ann iversary, and M emorial Comm issionsSERIES: Team 3,9 /11 Commission

NN D PROJECT NU MB ER: 52100 FOIA CASE NUM BER: 31107WITHDRAWAL DATE: 12/03/2008

BOX: 00002 FOLDER: 0001 TAB: 20 DOC ID: 31207908COPIES: 1 PAGES:

The item identified below has been withdrawn from this file:FOLDER TITLE: Analysis & Recom mendations [ Iof2]DOCUMENT DATE: 01/01/2004 DOC UM ENT TYPE: Note/NotesFROM:TO:SUBJECT: Handwritten Notes

This document has been withdrawn for the following reason(s):9/11 Classified Information


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WITHDRAWAL NOTICERG: 148 Expo sition, Anniversary, and Mem orial Com missionsSERIES: Team 3,9/11 Commission

NND PROJECT NUM BER: 52100 FOIA CASE NUM BER: 31107WITHDRAWAL DATE: 12/03/2008

BOX: 00002 FOLD ER: 0001 TAB: 22 DOC ID: 31207910COPIES: 1 PAGES: 40

The item iden tified below has been withdrawn from this file:FOLDER TITLE: Analysis & Recom mendations [Iof2]DOCUMENT DATE: 01/01/2004 DOCUM ENT TYPE: Note/NotesFROM:TO:SUBJECT: Illegilbe Handw ritten Notes

This document has been withdrawn for the following reason(s):9/11 Law Enforcement Privacy


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T3 B5 Analysis 1 of 2 Fdr- All Typed and Handwritten Staff Notes in Folder and 3 Withdrawal Notices for Notes