R E T H I N K I N G I - 9 4

MnPASS Connections CORSIM Analysis

16

Appendix T16 | 1

APPENDIX T16 - MNPASS CONNECTIONS

CORISM ANALYSIS

Introduction

Since 2016, MnDOT has been working with neighborhoods, community groups, district councils, local

governments and others interested in the future of I-94 between St. Paul and Minneapolis in an effort to

plan for transportation changes on and along the freeway. This effort is known as Rethinking I-94. The

work described in this technical memorandum was conducted as part of the initial phase of Rethinking

I-94 conducted between 2016 and 2018.

This memorandum documents an evaluation of potential MnPASS connections to downtown

Minneapolis and Saint Paul using CORSIM. As documented in the Rethinking I-94: MnPASS Connections

Concepts – Local System Considerations Concept Development and Analysis Technical Memorandum,

Option M1 (Minneapolis) and Options S1 and S5 (St. Paul) were determined to be the most promising

and were recommended to be carried forward for consideration as the study progresses into the

environmental phase. Options M1 and S1 were analyzed in more detail to better understand how the

MnPASS termini will impact I-94. This process is preliminary and will require additional analysis as the

study moves forward into the environmental phase.

A separate analysis using a Dynamic Traffic Assignment (DTA) modeling approach was also conducted

(Appendix T19). Results of these two efforts should be considered together as part of the next phase.

No Build Conditions

No build conditions were analyzed to establish a baseline to compare the impacts associated with the

addition of a MnPASS lane. No Build calibrated CORSIM Version 6.3 models used for the Spot Mobility

analysis were used as a base for this analysis. The westbound model limits extend from Snelling Avenue

to Broadway Avenue and include the I-35W Commons area. The AM (5:00 to 11:00 a.m.) and PM (1:00

to 7:00 p.m.) peak periods were analyzed. The eastbound model limits extend from Snelling Avenue to

Highway 61 and include the I-35E Commons area. The PM (2:00 to7:00 p.m.) peak period was analyzed.

The modeling limits and times were selected to capture locations and time periods that experience

reoccurring congestion.

CORSIM model outputs include VHT, VMT, and average speed on I-94. To make an accurate comparison

between existing no build conditions and MnPASS conditions, the VHT and VMT for trips that are

attracted to I-94 due to the addition of the MnPASS lane have been estimated using the Twin Cities

Regional Travel Demand Model. The VHT for the attracted trips was represented by multiplying the

number of trips by the average travel time for each trip on I-94. This assumes that the travel time for the

trips that would be attracted to I-94 under the MnPASS scenario is similar to the existing travel time on

I-94. The VMT for the additional trips was represented by multiplying the number of trips by the length

Appendix T16 | 2

that each trip is on I-94. The net change in the off-system VHT and VMT was added to the existing VMT

and VHT to make an accurate comparison.

WESTBOUND I-94 (SNELLING AVENUE TO BROADWAY AVENUE)

Table 1 summarizes the VHT and VMT for westbound I-94 between Snelling Avenue and Broadway

Avenue for the AM (5:00 to 11:00 a.m.) and PM (1:00 to 7:00 p.m.) peak periods. It also includes the

assumed off-system VHT and VMT. Figures 1 and 2 illustrate the average speed on westbound I-94

during the AM and PM peak periods.

TABLE 1 – NO BUILD CONDITIONS – WESTBOUND I -94 PEAK PERIOD VHT AND VMT SUMMARY

Scenario VHT VMT

AM

Peak Period

PM

Peak Period

AM

Peak Period

PM

Peak Period

No Build Conditions

(Modeled)

6,075 8,425 260,500 284,500

Assumed Off-System 275 575 12,000 19,500

Total 6,350 9,000 272,500 304,000

Appendix T16 | 3

F IGURE 1 – NO BUILD CONDITIONS – WESTBOUND I -94 AVERAGE S PEED (AM PEAK PERIOD)

Results from the analysis indicate poor operations at the following locations:

Congestion develops at the I-94 Tunnel and extends through the I-35W Commons (1-3 Hours)

Congestion develops at the weave section between Cretin Avenue and TH 280 and extends

through Snelling Avenue (2-3 Hours)

Appendix T16 | 4

F IGURE 2 – NO BUILD CONDITIONS – WESTBOUND I -94 AVERAGE S PEED (PM PEAK PERIOD)

Results from the analysis indicate poor operations at the following locations:

Congestion develops at the I-94 Tunnel and extends through the I-35W Commons to Huron

Boulevard (3-5 Hours)

Congestion develops at the weave section between Cretin Avenue and TH 280 and extends to

east of Cretin Avenue (1-3 Hours)

EASTBOUND I-94 (SNELLING AVENUE TO HIGHWAY 61)

Table 3 summarizes the VHT and VMT for eastbound I-94 between Snelling Avenue and Highway 61 for

the PM (2:00 to 7:00 p.m.) peak period. It also includes the assumed off-system VHT and VMT. Figure 3

illustrates the average speed on eastbound I-94 during the p.m. peak period.

Appendix T16 | 5

TABLE 3 – NO BUILD CONDITIONS – EASTBOUND I -94 PM PEAK PERIOD VHT AND VMT SUMMARY

Scenario VHT VMT

PM

Peak Period

PM

Peak Period

No Build Conditions (Modeled) 6,025 274,500

Assumed Off-System 250 11,500

Total 6,275 286,000

F IGURE 3 – NO BUILD CONDITIONS – EAST BOUND I -94 AVERAGE S PEED (PM PEAK PERIOD)

Results from the analysis indicate poor operations at the following locations:

Congestion develops at TH 52 and extends through the I-35E Commons to Lexington Avenue

(1-4 Hours)

Appendix T16 | 6

Build MnPASS Conditions

The Twin Cities Regional Travel Demand Model was used to develop a traffic volume set with an

assumed MnPASS lane between Minneapolis and St. Paul. Table 4 and Table 5 show the increase in

daily, a.m. peak hour, and p.m. peak hour traffic volumes for westbound and eastbound I-94 within the

modeling limits. The max target volume for the MnPASS lane was 1,465 vehicles per hour (vph) in the

westbound direction and 1,385 vph in the eastbound direction.

TABLE 4 – WESTBOUND I -94 – MODELED INCREASE IN TRAFFIC VOLUMES WITH ADDED MNPASS L ANE

I-94 Segment Daily Delta AM Peak Hour

Delta

PM Peak Hour

Delta

5th Street/10th Street to TH 280 6,650 555 635

Huron Boulevard to Riverside/25th Avenue 6,750 565 635

Riverside/25th Avenue to Cedar Avenue 6,750 555 640

Cedar Avenue to 7th Street 6,650 550 635

7th Street to I-35W South 3,000 270 435

Appendix T16 | 7

TABLE 5 – EASTBOUND I -94 – MODELED INCREASE IN TRAFFIC VOLUMES WITH ADDED MNPASS L ANE

I-94 Segment Daily Delta PM Peak Hour

Delta

Snelling Avenue to Lexington Parkway 6,400 525

Lexington Parkway to Dale Street 5,950 475

Dale Street to Marion Street/Kellogg Boulevard 5,500 440

Marion Kellogg Boulevard to 5th Street 5,250 425

5th Street to I-35E 1,575 165

WESTBOUND I-94 (SNELLING AVENUE TO BROADWAY AVENUE)

Option M1 (shown in Figure 4) assumes that the MnPASS lane will terminate at a direct connection to

Minneapolis using a new ramp to 7th Street. For this analysis, the westbound entrance ramp from

TH 280 was assumed to be on the right side of westbound I-94. Table 6 summarizes the VHT and VMT

for westbound I-94 between Snelling Avenue and Broadway Avenue. Figures 5 and 6 illustrate the

average speed on westbound I-94 during the a.m. and p.m. peak periods.

F IGURE 4 – OPT ION M1 – MNPASS RAMPS AT 6TH ST ./7 TH STREET IN MINNEAP OLIS

(PREL IMINARY CONCEPT DRAWING ONLY)

Appendix T16 | 8

TABLE 6 – OPTION M1 WESTBOUND I -94 PEAK PERIOD VHT AND VMT SUMMARY

Scenario VHT VMT

AM

Peak Period

PM

Peak Period

AM

Peak Period

PM

Peak Period

MnPASS Conditions

(Modeled)

6,300 9,625 272,500 304,000

F IGURE 5 – BUILD MNPASS CONDITIONS – WESTBOUND I -94 AVERAGE S PEED (AM PEAK PERIOD)

Appendix T16 | 9

Results from the analysis indicate poor operations at the following locations:

Congestion develops at the I-94 Tunnel and extends through the I-35W Commons to Huron

Boulevard (1-3 Hours)

Congestion develops at the weave section between Cretin Avenue and TH 280 to extends to east

of Cretin Avenue (2 Hours)

F IGURE 6 – BUILD MNPASS CONDITI ONS – WESTBOUND I -94 AVERAGE SPEED ( PM PEAK PERIOD)

Results from the analysis indicate poor operations at the following locations:

Congestion develops at the I-94 Tunnel and extends through the I-35W Commons to

Huron Boulevard (3-5 Hours)

Congestion develops at the weave section between Cretin Avenue and TH 280 (1-2 Hours)

Appendix T16 | 10

EASTBOUND I-94 (SNELLING AVENUE TO HIGHWAY 61)

Options S1 (shown in Figure 7) assumes that the MnPASS lane will terminate at a direct connection to

Saint Paul using a new ramp to 5th Street. Table 7 summarizes the VHT and VMT for eastbound I-94

between Snelling Avenue and Highway 61. Figures 8 illustrates the average speed on eastbound I-94

during the p.m. peak period.

F IGURE 7 – OPT ION S1 – MNPASS RAMPS AT 5TH ST ./6TH STREET IN SA INT PAUL (PREL IMINARY CONCEPT DRAWING ONLY)

TABLE 7 – OPTIONS S1 AND S5 EASTBOUND I -94 VHT AND VMT SUMMARY

Scenario VHT VMT

PM Peak Period PM Peak Period

MnPASS Conditions (Modeled) 6,950 286,000

Appendix T16 | 11

F IGURE 8 – BUILD MNPASS CONDITI ONS – EASTBOUND I -94 AVERAGE SPEED (PM PEAK PERIOD)

Results from the analysis indicate poor operations at the following locations:

Congestion develops at TH 52 and extends through the I-35E Commons to Lexington Avenue

(1-5 Hours)

Appendix T16 | 12

Summary and Considerations

TRAFFIC VOLUMES

The traffic volume set developed using the Twin Cities Regional Travel Demand Model indicates that the

added MnPASS lane would attract an additional 6,650 to 6,750 vehicles per day (550-640 during the

peak hours) in the westbound direction and 5,250 to 6,400 vehicles per day (425-525 during the p.m.

peak hour) in the eastbound direction between downtown Minneapolis and Saint Paul. However, these

additional trips would not all be destined for downtown Minneapolis and downtown Saint Paul.

Approximately 3,000 daily trips (270-435 during the peak hours) would be destined for west of the

downtown Minneapolis direct connection and approximately 1,575 daily trips (165 during the p.m. peak

hour) would be destined for east of the downtown Saint Paul direct connection. The assumed max

volume for the MnPASS lane was 1,465 vehicles per hour (vph) in the westbound direction and 1,385

vph in the eastbound direction.

VHT/VMT

Table 8 and Table 9 show the VHT and VMT under both no build and build MnPASS scenarios. Results of

the analysis indicate that the addition of a MnPASS lane with the M1 connection option in Minneapolis

would result in an increase of 625 VHT during the PM (2:00-7:00 p.m.) peak period and the S1

connection option in Saint Paul would result in an increase of 675 VHT during the PM peak period. This

equates to an annual increase in VHT of 162,500 in the westbound direction and 175,500 in the

westbound direction.

TABLE 8 – WESTBOUND I -94 VHT AND VMT SUMMARY

Scenario VHT VMT

AM

Peak Period

PM

Peak Period

AM

Peak Period

PM

Peak Period

No Build Conditions

(Modeled + Assumed Off-

System)

6,350 9,000 272,500 304,000

MnPASS Conditions 6,300 9,625 272,500 304,500

Net Change -50 625 No Change No Change

Appendix T16 | 13

TABLE 9 – EASTBOUND I -94 VHT AND VMT SUMMARY

Scenario VHT VMT

PM PM

No Build Conditions

(Modeled + Assumed Off-

System)

6,275 286,000

MnPASS Conditions 6,950

286,000

Net Change 675

No Change

AVERAGE SPEED

Figure 9 and Figure 10 illustrate the average speed on westbound I-94 near the downtown Minneapolis

connection during the AM and PM peak periods under no build conditions and build MnPASS conditions.

During the AM and PM peak periods, congestion improves under the build MnPASS scenario near

TH 280, but gets worse through the I-35W Commons. This is due to the increased demand in the I-35W

Commons and vehicles exiting the MnPASS lane to travel beyond the downtown connection.

Appendix T16 | 14

F IGURE 9 – WESTBOUND AVERGE SPEED COMPARISON (AM PE AK PERIOD)

F IGURE 10 – WESTBOUND AVERGE SPEED COMPA RISON (PM PEAK PERIO D)

Appendix T16 | 15

Figure 11 illustrates the average speed on eastbound I-94 near the downtown Saint Paul connection

during the PM peak period under no build conditions and build MnPASS conditions. Congestion gets

worse under the build MnPASS conditions due to increased demand through the I-35E commons and

vehicles exiting the MnPASS lane to travel beyond the downtown connection

F IGURE 11 – EASTBOUND AVERG E SPEED COMPARISON ( PM PEAK PERIOD

CONSIDERATIONS

Results of the analysis indicate that the addition of a MnPASS lane with the M1 connection option in

Minneapolis and the S1 connection option in Saint Paul will result in an increase in VHT during the p.m.

peak periods with congestion occurring for longer durations of time compared to no build conditions.

Additional analysis which includes the extension of the MnPASS lane to the add-lane at the southbound

I-35W off-ramp in the westbound direction and to I-35E in the eastbound direction should be considered

as potential mitigation for these impacts as this study moves forward into the environmental.

Prepared by: SRF Consulting Group, Inc.