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2H15132 2aqAq DMDTSIOW 513HM :2T3)J5IAM ){JIM oowa OIHO OMIGUTH TO 2I2YJAMA MA ioho .H hoc! oM &ioX aslguoU .1 VEOÔ ioqs nbhoW H32AH2351 DIMOMODH TO UAH2UH JAMOITAM ounovA afloair1onaanM OO I 8EIO AM obhdmeD VQQI izM oü*O \o n% ni Ilitnis!q orb 1 Ithrlod no atnomotsta bn ahoqoi iuo molt botqsbn ai ioqsq ST luiqiarl bavioooi oW .Isht ot ornso ii oiolod boffloa asw oaso ouT .\t %\tü orb molt as how 25 bbo2 oimoH bun 4tnofl tiW 4tuD uoJ nnrIsnaoiH miT molt atnommoo 10 tisq ai ioqnq atriT flH.IJ bits biolrista brn'nnfl iiaiovinU notaoH is aismmoa iii etnsqioihsq orb lo oaor!t om boaaoiqxo arloiniqo nA .noilnsinsgiO Inlitaubril ni msioiq rlomoaoi a'23HM .rlomoao2 oimonooH lo unoiufi InrioitsM out lo oaoffi ton bus aiorltun ion ixoi lo anoi ooa florh2 .bo'noaoi atrIh hA .snoS as!uoG I bun ioho'I .11 hodoM d VQQ I © tiboio Ihifi tnrlt bobivoiq noiaairmoq noilqxa tuorhtiw botoup ad ysm ar1qnigsmq owt boooxo ot .ooiuoa orb ot novig ai eOOllOfl © gnibuhoni

tü - National Bureau of Economic Research · eta mcift bebul3noo aeaso bits aid auooI ai no edt ae3nete'flib neewted gnoita bits tow aleflso eterlw edt noitonitaib aiSbet ot tedtedw

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Page 1: tü - National Bureau of Economic Research · eta mcift bebul3noo aeaso bits aid auooI ai no edt ae3nete'flib neewted gnoita bits tow aleflso eterlw edt noitonitaib aiSbet ot tedtedw

2H15132 2aqAq DMDTSIOW 513HM

:2T3)J5IAM ){JIM oowa OIHO OMIGUTH TO 2I2YJAMA MA

ioho .H hoc! oM

&ioX aslguoU .1

VEOÔ ioqs nbhoW

H32AH2351 DIMOMODH TO UAH2UH JAMOITAM ounovA afloair1onaanM OO I

8EIO AM obhdmeD VQQI izM

oü*O \o n% ni Ilitnis!q orb 1 Ithrlod no atnomotsta bn ahoqoi iuo molt botqsbn ai ioqsq ST luiqiarl bavioooi oW .Isht ot ornso ii oiolod boffloa asw oaso ouT .\t %\tü

orb molt as how 25 bbo2 oimoH bun 4tnofl tiW 4tuD uoJ nnrIsnaoiH miT molt atnommoo 10 tisq ai ioqnq atriT flH.IJ bits biolrista brn'nnfl iiaiovinU notaoH is aismmoa iii etnsqioihsq

orb lo oaor!t om boaaoiqxo arloiniqo nA .noilnsinsgiO Inlitaubril ni msioiq rlomoaoi a'23HM .rlomoao2 oimonooH lo unoiufi InrioitsM out lo oaoffi ton bus aiorltun

ion ixoi lo anoi ooa florh2 .bo'noaoi atrIh hA .snoS as!uoG I bun ioho'I .11 hodoM d VQQ I © tiboio Ihifi tnrlt bobivoiq noiaairmoq noilqxa tuorhtiw botoup ad ysm ar1qnigsmq owt boooxo ot

.ooiuoa orb ot novig ai eOOllOfl © gnibuhoni

Page 2: tü - National Bureau of Economic Research · eta mcift bebul3noo aeaso bits aid auooI ai no edt ae3nete'flib neewted gnoita bits tow aleflso eterlw edt noitonitaib aiSbet ot tedtedw

gnibbifiIo aia'1snA ciA :ato±sM AIIM Ioorloa ohIO BibS aBIgiJoU I bns iohoq .H trndo5l

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Page 3: tü - National Bureau of Economic Research · eta mcift bebul3noo aeaso bits aid auooI ai no edt ae3nete'flib neewted gnoita bits tow aleflso eterlw edt noitonitaib aiSbet ot tedtedw

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Page 5: tü - National Bureau of Economic Research · eta mcift bebul3noo aeaso bits aid auooI ai no edt ae3nete'flib neewted gnoita bits tow aleflso eterlw edt noitonitaib aiSbet ot tedtedw

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Page 6: tü - National Bureau of Economic Research · eta mcift bebul3noo aeaso bits aid auooI ai no edt ae3nete'flib neewted gnoita bits tow aleflso eterlw edt noitonitaib aiSbet ot tedtedw

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Page 7: tü - National Bureau of Economic Research · eta mcift bebul3noo aeaso bits aid auooI ai no edt ae3nete'flib neewted gnoita bits tow aleflso eterlw edt noitonitaib aiSbet ot tedtedw

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Page 8: tü - National Bureau of Economic Research · eta mcift bebul3noo aeaso bits aid auooI ai no edt ae3nete'flib neewted gnoita bits tow aleflso eterlw edt noitonitaib aiSbet ot tedtedw

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(sofia) ci! + (insml!oius) a! *QO! + Q = (flitimup)th (K!) (ô.ô)

Page 9: tü - National Bureau of Economic Research · eta mcift bebul3noo aeaso bits aid auooI ai no edt ae3nete'flib neewted gnoita bits tow aleflso eterlw edt noitonitaib aiSbet ot tedtedw

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silt sisrlw atstsm svscl oiilOlo qit taocnxrisdtuoa silt bits audmuloZ) .lsups eels Us esoiiq taswol

bohsq silt isvO .aisouboiq wsl '4svitslsi 'to abasH edt ni bstsitnsonoo ci AIim loorlos 'to 'lqqua

isdmun silt bus tt ot R moft ilsI atobtaib Iooiloa oiilO gni'nsa etnslq'to isdmun silt OQQl-O8Ql

eiliot 3vfl8151 'llama' ax nitfi doss nsdw .s.z JnOiVSilsd al 8nibbid lo Isbom nno1 booub&r £ asoimiamuoixo smoe nI" .13*15111

to aslim V nidhiw atnslqlo noitorfi silt seu ow asisda i&1 xsbth ldsbciThsH sill gthau noitsitnsonoo smeasm oW ' .miriit doss yd bonwo sm lasH noiax sill

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- at -

.ô& ot Et mon Ibi airnillo

awoda oats sWat edT stab oidO edt ni aeonataib iebbid lo noitudhteib edt ewoda £ eldaT

annil edtIo tneoieq a 'letanthcoiqqA stab edt iii coonateib teilqqua !aitnetoqIo noitudittaib edt

edt mot aelim V nadt asel bots3ol atnalq mo-ft oa ob tae' cievia a cii llim loodoa gniylqque

taeqqs at3rltaxb loodea tnateib ot AIim ylqqua ot isbio cii litne gnhebiano3 anriiI .tohteib Ioodoa

.nortateqo cii tna!q a evad iedfli neve e3nata!b d begatnavbaeib ed ot

b egatnavbsaib taetaqqa edt baa elate edt iii atnalq gniaae3otqbo noitucli-iteib edT

.AIim loodea no abid to iedmun flame 'levitslei a evieoei ot atoritaib eeuao coonateib gaol gniqqkle

vihoism A stab oidO edt cii tohtaib teq atsbbicflo iedmun edflo noitudhtaib silt awoda £ eldaT

dauodt nevH .tae dose atebbid owl to eno mot chic! bevieoet toe stab edt cii anoitoua edflo

aaem edT .bid web ev jioitous ialuoiriaq yna ioI atebbid IsitnetoqIo tedmun egral a eta eiedt

etavhq oftioeqa-nrift tnaoftinaxa ed ton 'tam eiedt tacit aetsoibni £ eldaT .8.1 ci abid to tedmun

tedtobo ataoo edt as flew as ateoo ciwo tiedt wed etebbidM .ateAiam edt cii noitannolni

ed tiluow abid owl to eno tedtie anoitqmuaea btabnata lo tea £ tebnu nedt ateilqqua thitaetoq

teoo edt woled tauj bids timdua bluow ieilqque taoo wo! edt anoitqmuaaa eeedt tebnu .bevteado

neewied tnsieThbth ed bluow teilqqua taoo taewol txea edt baa teilqqua taoo teewol ixen edflo

baa bettimduaio ecitahetoatado edt aalqaib t sidaT .gnibbid ton to Thoo nwo tiedt ta gaibbid

edtIo eno ai ti iedtodw eieilqque Isitnetoq teeaolo edflo eno ai mtft edt tediedw -- abid nnw dtiw acinfi edt yd bettimdua eta abicJ fin lo tneo-ieq £t' tuodA .tedtien io atebivoiq taeaolo bnoooe

loodoa ot ateilqqua ha lollad taom!a tacit awode oats eldat edT .iohieib edt ot taeao!o tnalq edt

.atna!q taeaolo edt dtiw acrnft edt eta atohtaib

noismdua bill .A

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- at -

edt ievenedw tobtaib isluainsq a cxi bid a ticndua 111w nnft a tetsm evxtxteqcnoo a iii

ritod WI$V03 znutei bst3eqxe edt nedw bits 48id '4evitsler 21 tthitaib tacit aninthw'to 'flilidsdrnq

beoubei A .toritaxb edt niy1qqua to ataoo latnemeioni edt bits bid edt gnSqeiq 'to ataoo edt

a 'tebbid Iaitnetoq edt toeftel tacit ae!dshsv tcft tnuooos bluoda toivaded gaibbid 'to lebom mio't

ed sm tacit aeldsitav e!qmsxo io .t3rltaib a ninoe ni estnsvba evitalot bits otuloada

tnaoftmaxa asd (1) itrifi edt ton to iedtedw ebuloni aeastnsvba eaedt 3fllsrletOstSda iii tnshoqmni

edt ot tohtaib silt mot e3nataib edt sd betoeltet as tohtaib ts!uoiitsq edt ot ataoo noitatioqanstt

edt oa bits) ieilqqua lsitnetoq taeaolo edt ai (iii) ;llim to ioaasootq £ 10 totudhtaib £ 21(11) ;tns!q

edt 1IeAil eoned bits taeao1o bnooea edt ai (vi) ;(tohtaib tadt icft ioilqqua taoo viol '(bAil teom

-regis! as johtath !oodoa llama -to egra! a no 8nibbid ai (v) ;iobivoiq !sxtnotoq yltaoo tasol bnooea

edt ebivolq '(Itneioffle irso (iv) bits ;bid a eisqetq ot grene bits emit eiom etiupel am atoiitaib

iedtedw beiiupei eta atelooc ton to tedtedw ,

.) tontnoo edt to am-lot edt iebnu Alim boffloeqa

.(anoitsoffioeqa iedto as ilew as 1beftioeqa eta atostnoo gthts!soae to anfi

edt 'to noiaioeb edt toe'fts notoit oaorft wod otsmitae ew stsb nibbid obdalisva moil

ô ebdsT 2 e!dsT iii beniatnoo al beo1qcne aa!dahsv odt'to tail A .bid a timdua ot quot botnoo

ai e!dai-iav tnebneqeb edt eiedw a!ebom tidolq !sievea 'to noitsmitae edt mail atluaei edt atneaeiq

2 eldaT cxi bedi-ioaeb as eta ae!dshsv tnsbrieqebth edt bits tahlaib £ cxi bettimdua ai bid all eno

tneae-tq eW stab eldabiava dtiw atae'(-tohtath bits accnft 'to Isnaq beortaladnu its ai elqmsa edT

dtiw noitaoffioeqa bo!ooq a ai trift edT .anoitaoflioeqa tnetfiib eeidt noqu bsaad aetamitas

betsmitae exit ays!qaib (a) ncnulot) .a-tebbid bits atontarb Ha aaotoa aeqola bits atqecrtetni nointitoo

noiiudthnoo omoa athivuiq him Fiaoo oaeili awoo sthq MCI all 'Ii 'onom otm 111w aaotheud AIim boodoa oiIt th nnfl At 10 dltw toned' eta uoy -xeilledw ai Met edt ,auriit tnshneleb oil lo sno 'to OH!) a d hetsta aA .bsodt,vo 10 aMoo hoxft ot

aaoniaud out "tuodtiw toned

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- ci -

isbbid stnsqsa ioI awolls itoitsoffiasqa bnoooa silT .aoitaitsta-t betsinitas silt (d) bits atnsbmsoo

edt (b) bits noitsoftiosqa aiilt mall atneiofflsoo betamitas silt a'zlqaib (a) nrnuloD .atosfls bsxft

atos!fis tohtaib baa isbbid stsiaqsa idi awolls rioitsaffiosqa hull silT .aoitaitsta-t bstsrnitas

ofliosqa-tontaiG .bsuuassm ed ago atos!fis sasilt sisriw stsb siltIo slqmsadua £ gniau bstsmitas

lo emit isvo tnshsvth bits tobtaib Iooiloa a 01 offlosqa 313W tacIt atosfis yns io'l 10111103 asimmub

noitsofliosqa built silt ni bslhtnebi a' titsioffisos socistaib silT .bid £ aniffkndua amifi usvo

silT .atohtaib smoa baa etnslq tasaolo tamtlI nsswtsd sonsteib silt ustla asiuaolo tnslq sausasil

sausosd bsffitnebi neflo sis silt as s1dsiIsu aasl sd 'sm atnsiamsoo noitsoftiosqa toaititoo

sd ot atnsioffleoo 1o usdmun sgusl silt lo sausosfi .auss smoa io1 aniaaim ai noitsrmthni

abnoqasnoo atluasu o tea tauft silT *i.asosiq ovfl otni msldcnq silt tsud sw (004' usvo) bstsmitae

atnsiofflsoo bstsmutas silt as1qaib (s) nmuloD .atoFuaib looiloa to quoi tauft edt mall stab silt ot

silt (ii) bits atnsioffisoo betamitas silt aslqaib (g) itmuloD .aoitaitsta-t bstsmitas silt (1) bits

aamos islitnia sis tasustniIo atnsioffisoo silT titsadue stsb bnoosa silt mall aoitaitsta-t bstsmitas

.anoitsoftnsqa ssidt lit

twill abid timdua ot ls liI rnm sus auoaas3o1 .awolidt as tluasu silt tsuqustth eW

loodoa slania 5 iflfl 01 bnst aiotudhtaib tsilt los'! silt tosfisu urn aiilT .lsups sale Hz potudiutaib

suom sw ainriq .psvilsb looiloa 111w astuol lsusvsa flUt 01 bust aioaasoouq sliilw stuou AIim

Ius1uoitusq ,tnslq tilt bnums Hz ot bsaoqqo as noitosuib isluoitusq sno ci bid £ timdua ot 1lsAil

01 ylsAil aasl sus arnui1 .asiutouuta slum gnitaixs Ia atoeb silt tosftsi yam stilT .aiotudhtaib

atordeiMo tadmun omsa sift tuods bsil tsedua ibas lath oe slab sill tilqe ban usilmun lohiaib 'd slab sift iebio 5w ,Isbom 1amns &rom sub tov ni alobom tslqmla sib losjsx 1dsdoxq bluow last olin boodhIsAll a lath solioMtt

isili stab sib ni usbbid oath susib th lailT .alahiaib fin to nsbbid lit lnsesxqsx ana tqsoislni slaina on lath nIJasUa .iil3il mu iii bslsiquslth sd blnoila alluasi silT .anifto sifibo uoivsilsd nibbid sift lnsasiqsi ot bowed ass

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-81 -

ieaob ni eta 'edt ascii tns!q iiedt mofi swa tedtuil eta tadt atahtaib loodoa no ebid tiradue

awntla 10 atelooo tasupet tacit at3l-ItaiU .asonets'fiib taoo etuloada atoeftet '1dadoiq aidT .atohtaib

anibbid tosfis ton ob erneti noitaoftioeqa tetho edT .ton ob lath etobteib usd1 abid tewSI evIeO5l

.'aw tnaofiinia 11aoitextata £ cii toivaded

sets edt cii tqeoxe bid £ gthtticndue 1o boodilsAil edt no toefie svitagen a and eonataiU

edt e'(a!qeib £ eiugil .tnalq teeeo!o edt nivsd mofi estrisvbs Isnoitsool a and rinD £ eiedw

toi .quoi Iottnoo edt cii cinfi 1soitsdtoqsd £ tol gnibbidlo fliIidsdoiq edt no eonsteiblo tosqmi

cli moft eelim 01 ascii eeel atiiteib ox teilqqua taeeolo edt ci miD edt tacit ecnuaas ew eiu8iI aidt

eeidt edT aelim 0 ban 01 neewted eeonsteib ta ieilqqua Isitnetoq teecolo bnooee edt ban tanlq

edt cii eqete owl eta eiedT '.Ô eldaT iii enoitsoihoeqe tidoiq tneieThb exit ot bnoqeenoo aevwo

ii eteclw bits egatnsvbs Isnoitsool cii aeao! rinD edt eiedw £thbbid lb 'tiidsdoiq betoibeiq

8nibbid b boodilet edT tt.ieilqqua lsitcietoq teecolo bnoosa edt toci teeeolo edt ieduien aemooed

edT .eonateib dtiw ceasetoeb tud eonataib oies is tneoteq 0 evoda ci anD Isoitedtoq'd aidt icft

cellar ac nadi tetseig eeonstaib is otes hsen ci bid £ gnuttimdue b yiilidadotq betnmitae

uoinicndua no tuegnitnoD (eyed bill .11

esiañsm ot bid cii eaoodo bluow bid £ gthttirndua rinD £ eie±ram evititeqrnoo nI

edt rewol silt bid edt redgid edt ;letinfisbni beeaeroth ed tonaso bid A .tfiorq betoeqxe

tftoiq ed ton bluow ii ticndua ot yltaoo era abid tacit tnstxs edt oT ninniw b boodilet

betoeqxe gaisimixam in-iD ciA .gnirmiwbo flilldadotq on evsd tsdt abid timdua ot gnisicnixam

bexil anft bus tohtaib exit mo-il heniasdo atnsioffleoo beismitas exit egsmvs ow eiugfi sill 8mwnMo aseoqwq exit r&I sisb othIo ateadue owl silt no becad atido-xq atoeb

exit iovowoH ssño8otsc seoul ml asldsSv rotsoibrn 'olqmo anoitsoiltoeqa tidoll mo sczssosd w000 aqete silT ' iot essnVs bomuesom ouitlo noutos-ub to esia sill no noilofiteom s saoqmi ton asob sIiJb000iq Isouteitste

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-21 -

81.anthniw lo ytilidsdoiq iewol £ taniaaa 2tftolq lecl8icl !fio aeban tftoiq

silt 'd betoeb €1 qwham edT .eteoo ievo qzthiam iiedt eaoodo etebbid levitacnetlA

.abid nittirndua ennft ieclto±o booclilelil edt no thneqeb doidw noitoua edt ninniw1o boodileAil

owt eta oteriT .teooIo level edt nevi tfiotq betoeqxe esicnixacn ot neaodo el qithacn silT

tacit aeldahav eia eisclt .toivaded gaibbid nislqxe ot bnet bluow tacit aeldahav to ashoaetao

tebbid edt ion to iedteclw ;tohteib edt ot tnalq edt cnot eonstaib as doua taoo ot etudiitnoo yam

to tedmun edt ;beilqqua 10 betiupet eia arneti iedto 10 atelooo ton 10 tedtedw ;toaaeooiq £ 81

aeldanav eta eteilt bnooe2 .eaualo totalaoae na ai eterlt ion to tedtedw baa ;aehevileb betiupet

ot evitalei egatnavba two a'iebbid edt :te±am edilo aoitanetoatado evititeqmoo toellet tacit

tobnev teeaolo edt ai tebbid £ i elqmaxe tol .te)ham edt ni etuaaetq evititeqmnoo edt baa aiedto

atecito tevo esatnavba aa ead iebbid tacit nedt tohtaib loodoa £ ot taeaolo ai tadt tnalq £ aad 10

niciniw1o yiilidadotq au gthaaetoeb tuodtiw ed bluow eaivnedto ti nadt tedid ed nao bid ti baa

tacit annA .bid £ atiindua rn-in £ tacit ytilidadotq silt ot aetalet tacit sldanav £ 21 elqmaxe bnoosa A

lo flilidadoiq dgid a evad tacit eaodt yleaioeiq eta atohtaib taluoinsq no abid tkndua ot yleAil ets

.nôitoua edt niw yedi tacit tneve silt iii atftoiq cl8id ylevitalet mae ot gnitoeqxs swill baa ninthw

abid1o iotoev a'nnft doaelo etuaaem yIsmrnua £ tointznoo 5w aeonq bid esythna oT

tneoieq owt edt toibetq eW .gcthovafl baa tnetnoo taTi tetiud iii aeonete'fiib iol nitnuoooa

a iii bsltirndua aeohq tsdto scitlo doss noqu beaad ,tniqIlad tsq atallob iii s3hq stalooodo

a baa etalooodo tneoteq owi a dtod eieclw aeonatani eaodt iii slqrnaxe ioI .isnnam eaivniaq

eonq .Ilim etiriw edt no eohq Ilicn eta!ooodo edt aaeiet 5w bsxetne eiew bid lhm eloclw etidw

beaad sohq stalooodo tneotsq ova a taaoetdf ot beau ai noitaupe betacnitae silT .tnatarioo a baa

(8Q1) isdeW bus moi8liM io (V82!) nsIliMoM bus aeIAoM (E2Q1) noaliW ..o osa '

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ifs no beasd 2taaoeiot sdtIo ssievs edT .betiicndua asw tsdt eonq Aiim elodw etiriw edt no

tneoieq owl ai ezsd edT .eohq b eiuaaem 'iammua edt as beau ai abid tnenoqmoo be'neado

edt bus Jeborn edt otni tioitasbeAaoieted b nnol £ eoubotni 'sm eiubeornq SIT .etslooodo

or ed bluow doaoiqqs iuo 03 evitanietls enO .ylnibioaoa beteiqietni ed bluoda etluaei Isoitaitata

.eiubeooiq 2J0 £ gniau Aiim 1o eqt close io anoitsupe etnaqea etsmdae

edt lo!I noiaiosb level bid edt no evods bedhoasb aiotoal edt o atoefie edt eiuasem eW

noitsmitae edtlo atluaei edt atneaoiq V eldaT .tea stsb edt cr1 bevieado as qurng loitnoo

tidoi'1 elqmia £ noqu beasd ai mD edT .atluaei bo atea eeidt tneaeiq ew nisgA .aeiubeooiq

diiw alevel bid rob noiaeeei ao gnibnoqae-rioo £ bus noxaaimdua bid iob noitnofiioeqa

rebbid awolls bnooea edT '.eiubeooiq tbloeH S £1 tot betnuooos arone edt cii noitslenoo

rob awolls bildt edT .noiisupe level bid edt cii baa aeiamitae tidoiq edt ni amiet tnatanoo oluioeqa

aeldaiisv ns rob lotnoo atoe'fie oftiseqa toi-itaiU .atoe'fie bexft oftiseqa tohtaib bus rebbid diod

OS bids gnittimdua am-rD -tevo b emit revo tnsi-isvni bits iohtaib loodoa £ 03 oftioeqa erew tacIt

bid A .bid edt isdid edt eociataib edt retseig edT awoilcil as ailuaer edt texpetth eW

eale ifs tnslq edt ot tneosjbs tohtaib £ cii nsdt redgid nneq £ revo ed bh,ow awa aelicn 001

mot aeonstaib eaedi ta atoittaib ot abid timdua or lelilnu era quoi lortnoo edt ml annR Isupe

10 eaodt nsdt tedaid tneo £ Ilad taomla era tadt abid timdua a,otudi-itaiU .revewod tnslq edt

eatcravbs tsdt tud egstnsvbs evititeqmoo emoa evad toittaib edt 03 taeaolo acrnil roaaeootq

wol bid ot loAiI rnm ets abid ticndua ot 1eAi1 em tsdi amcnil .eoustaib dtiw daictirnib ot ameea

.(ÔVQI) cmmtsll cii bedhoash sIa asoaai lsoilaimak silT ' taut aloodsa 311110 aouianatonsilo '(nfl 10 toFitath lot a cii aloodoalo iedmun edt ebuloth bluoo att eaecff or

thiltiw abaoz 311110 IIOXIIhIIOO edt bstau4ogen oil ot atJ 10 aIdaifilo rodmun edt as uloua anut revo tnstanoo bsnismsi sldiaaoq isdllolo 'flsFmv a bite ksmit ievo tnsianoo aew Ii ineixs silt ot sera edt cii ytianeb oMst edt 4oizieih lot silt

2-101081

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-

eis anoxtsoTh3eqa t3sltrlo3 edt b emo2 .tnei3meo3 oitsSI alliM eaievnl edt iii betoeflei as

bexft £ ot bs2oqqo as bid gnitsl.soes its etimdua nnft £ neriw e1qmsxe ioI .tnsoffingia v11s3!ta!tsta

toe'fie bexif iebbid edt ot 8rnblo3os thupe sale ils iewo1 231133 .O tuods si level bid edt bid

.Ieboxn

abid betoibeiq tolq eW .eenstaib dtiw xsv abid quoi lo13noo wod aesharrimue E eiuiI

eiugfi edT .tnstano3 sonstaib nsilt 13±0 aeldsnsv athblod itnil quoi 1013(103 ls3itedtoqyrl £ idb

t3sqmx gthtluaei edt bits bid £ gniffhrndua b tilidsdoiq edt no eanstaib bo to'fle edt aetsloqIooth

quo lotcioo edtbo anoitsoftiosqa tnelefiib eeldt edt tob atluast edt tneaeiq eW bid edt flO

situ betoibetq edt tsdt 02 tnstanoo edt taujbs ew leborn teefie bexa toFitaib edt nI .lebom 8nibbid

ils aaoios emsa edt ed 03 atoefie edt nisttwoo doidw 4ebom tedto edt oteldsisqmoo ai

10131103 tot bettimdua thid no eonstaib to toeTh edtbo aetsmitae tnioq atneaeiq 8 sWaT .atohtaib

quot .annfi

eta stab 3thbbid edT .esievs no eonsteib dtiw easetoni quot 10131103 edt d ablE

dose etedw jioititeqmoo lsitsqflo alebom frtsbnsta tebnu anibbid ev titsqmoo dtiw tnetaianoo

eausoed besilsool si noititsqmoo evods bedhoaeb aA .tewoq 1oqonom Isool eatotexe 'sm unit

.ataoo noitstioqansit dali! !evitsIet1o eausoed bits aeohq llim wsi to noitsiuget edtbo

amAu)lnafl to zowisafl .V

ioivsdefl quoi3 loilnoD ot noaiiaqmoD A

medt etsqmoo bits acrnfi tnsbneIeb edtlo doselo aeoitosiq gnibbid edt enimaxe won eW

bid edtlo level edt bits noiaioeb noiaairndua bid edt dtod iebianoe oW .quoig lotnoo edt dtiw

sift tol sonsiaib mesM abid bsloibeiq silt isen el sonsiath otes Is tAd belothsiq silt Mill 0€ beTh tohiath a toolea eW betlolq aenil edt noawtod oonenThb otnloads edt ol oonsffinie tim eluditns ton bluoda snO anoitsoffloeqa isilto

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- -

.noieeimdua no tne3nitnoo

teet eW .ioivsded noieeimdue bid iii eeonei&fiib Io test £ b atlueei edt a'alqeib 2 eldsT

betamitee eeodt bus quoi loitnoo edt io± betsutitee atneioffIeoo eqola edt neew-ted eeoneieThb ioI

sriiwollo edt ecu ew airnif sdtIo dose ioI .etnsbnelsb ohiO cneteewdtuoe edtIo dose ioI

() ;stsb quoi loitnoo edt ot tnsbneIsb nevia £ ioI stsb noieeimdue edt bnsqqs (I) :eiubeornq

rinD edt idI enme edt eis atrteiomeoo eqola edt tsdt exaedtoq"d ilun edt 'iebnu lebom £ etamitee

edt iebnu leborn £ etsinitee (E) (teThb ot bewolls ci tqeoietni edt) enrtfl quoi loitnoo edt bus

£ touitenoo (4') bus ;tnsbneIeb edt iol etueiolfieoo eqola etnaqee 'to eieedtoqyd evitsinetis

edt toe jei ot cu bsel 2 eldsT ni befloqei eoiteitste test edT .oiteitste test oitsi boodileAil

ta leborn quot loitnoo edt ot anibiooos abid bettkndua etnsbneIeb edt tsdt aeeedtoqyd

enoitsoffloeqe edt idI betuqrnoo oels siew aoiteitsta test edT .elevel eonsofturaie Isnoitnevnoo

emse edt ot j,sel ateet edt bits etodfte bexft iebbid bus tohteib bus etoe'fie bexft iebbid dtiw

.noieulonoo

eldsT .ebidlo level edt gnitneneg eeeooiq lsoiiaitste edt iii aeoneie'flib tol test ew !JxeM

level bid edt iii etnebffleoo eqole Isupe 'to test teilqitluM ennDsJ s 'to etlueet edt a'sIqaib Of

(I) ;etubeooiq 8niwolloI edt beau ew atnsbneleb ohiO cneteewdtuoa edt'to dose 10q .enoitsupe

() ;aetsmitee noitsupe bid quoi loitnoo edt no bead miff edt iol bid betoibetq edt etuqmoo

toitteib loodea dose tol (abid betoibeiq bus Isutos neewted eonete'fiib edt) lsubieet £ touitenoo

lottnoo edt iii aeldshsv tnebneqebni edt no elsubiasi ,a,dt eeeiet (E) ;eldiaaoq nedw tse bus

isups atneioffleoo eqole edt ils iedtedw test ot oitartsta-1 us etuqmoo (ts) bus ;noitsupe bid quoi

edt bits stsb quoz lo-rtnoo edt tol etneioffleoo eqole Isoitnebibo eieedtoqd ilun edt iebnu .oies

than nood ovzil Nuoo (olin booilhloiil as doria) aowboomq iaei -iódlo eenm1O .oonoinwnoo ith beers asw iaot Mi ecU'

Page 25: tü - National Bureau of Economic Research · eta mcift bebul3noo aeaso bits aid auooI ai no edt ae3nete'flib neewted gnoita bits tow aleflso eterlw edt noitonitaib aiSbet ot tedtedw

- £2 -

!3fl3VS no rabid iewol o ieilid evsd ot twill s gmwolls ?eutib bluoo atqeoietth edt) atnabne'±eb

lo doae awoda 01 eldaT aA .aeulsv emsilxe stt ot '!eli1nu ai ottaitata tast edt ,(llun edt iebnu

ta aiaedtoq'd ibm edtlo nohoej.ei 5 ot abse! eoritasa1o tacit tqsoxe aoitaitsta taet edt

edt iebcw bettimdua abid iol betuqmoo oltaitata taet edT .a!evel eoctzoThnia lanoitiievnoo

llrnr edtIo noitosiel £ ot has! ton aeob (eman blot) wobseM edt nsdt iedtai) oman eohtseH

iewol thtaejua no oitaitata aidt eascl ot anoitwneado viol '!evitsl5t eia eiedt tud aiaedtoqyc1

edt iebnu gnibbid rinD akil iol anoita'neado snam eta eiedT .eonatarn aidt cxi last edt tol iewoq

last edT .aiev,l eoctseftzn&ia Mnoitnevnoo is betoejei ai hurt edt eierlt him reman blot) wobseM

tobtaib bits atoe'fio bexfi tebbid beiebianoo anoitsoftioeqa iedto edt o1 betuqrnoo aaw oltaitata

.anoiaulonoo emsa edt closet ew bits atoe'fie bexif iebbid bits

dose 10 ioivsded 8nibbid edt tacit etsoibni aetubeooiq Isoita itata bisbcmta eshsmrriua oT

eta aeoneis'fiib isioivadefl .quoi iottnoo edt molt ate'fiib atnsbneleb ohiO cnetaewdtuoa edt'to

lo ioivsded edt wod cci betaeietth eta eW .ioivaded evxtiteqmoo-itns 'to tluaei edt liiaaaeoen ton

.ieftib edt tacit nevi quoi hottnoo edt molt aceThb atnsbne'teb silt 'to dose

vptsita sviaulloD £ ot noei'isqmoD .fl

neewied nidaiunitaib :aoirnonooe tazntitna cxi meldoiq btabnaia £ dtiw booth eta eW

ow anoLlous noitojntanoo yawdid cxi ,how auoiveiq iuo ccl ioivsdsd sviaulloo bits evititeqrnoo

eauaood anoiaioeb noiaaicndua nadt tedtai aleve! bid ito gniauool (1) d noiaulloo titnebi

edt cci aeonete'ftib anh1itnebi (2) abid vjstnemeiqmoo betticndua (ltnomqqs atotsiiqanoo

tacit 8niineado (E) has ;acrnft tedto 'to tacit ot evitsiet aNd ienaolo tebto tat edtlo atnaninnoteb

abid 'to tebto tat edt ot taattnoo cci beaad taoo ed ot ton bemeea abid lenso 'to tebto tat edt

.noq to*mmIo oaioiexo oth nui3sisbo eboilloin botsls'x aazcoaib (QQ!) nzdniizeiR bus 10)188

Page 26: tü - National Bureau of Economic Research · eta mcift bebul3noo aeaso bits aid auooI ai no edt ae3nete'flib neewted gnoita bits tow aleflso eterlw edt noitonitaib aiSbet ot tedtedw

- -

810(11 21 '(3SH211O3 tacit ebubnoo ow tatho aoonoiolIib sasdli sausosa .amifi iodto d bettimdua

asaoqoiq (EBQ I) -iotzoq j3t153 'aw!in yiutnso dinestenin £ lo 'buta £ iil Jon ascii 'Sli1

stab bevisado iltiw tnstaleno3 siom 21 11012111103 10 noitxtsqmoa isdtsclw titnobi ot atsot Isoitaitata

edt od ot iaoqqs ton ob anoitsutouft eohq bevisado smo2 .scnit levo arnottaq nonq no boasd

'to iristtsq be'neado silt basianI .aiotoit tao3 sldavisado 111 aonsilo 10 2111112 bnsmsb 'to tluaei

ed ot !e)h!nu 21 asiada teliam insluthut llrnjaunu1lo abonsq gniwo!!o'1 21aw eonq !snoiaaoo

.sldiaaoq ai cnsttsq £ iloua oa1iqanoo lo (xosdt offiosqa £ isbnU .noititeqmoo iobnu bov-ioado

.noiaulloo 'to sonsis'tm tin annomni msttaq £ doua sb sonsta tics edT

no esYaflOd annif tnabneIob-non silT .tnlimia ai basil is cnsldoiq silt iol otnta iuO

instaswdtuoa silt tacit bebulonoo end eW .noititeqmoo iltiw tnetaianoo iennsm a ni sasisvs

-non silt ot evitalel isnnsm tnsisThb 'ltnaoftinia s11aoitaitata £ ni evaded atnabneleb ohiO

taoo 'to atooTh oitaion'aoibi or sidatudhifa sin asons,&fith sasth tacit Iei1iI ti al .annft tnabneleb

eierlt 51510 a1otos1 tnsbnsqebni ot sidatudi-itta aeonsisThb silt s-is ton II ?noititsqmoo 10

.attottaeup owt sasrlt aaoibbs won sW ?noztslsTioo 'to ainsttaq auoio:qaua

• tacit no auoo't ow jsbom quoi lotnoo silt ni lotoal tnai-ioqmi JIB ai 8311at211) 531112

silt th asniloeb sgml iltiw betaiooaas s-is sonstaib gnlqqiila iii asaseloffi staisboM .noiansmib

s-is s3nataib ni asasetni sta-isbom halirni2 .( euiFi) bids ninimdua 'to ytffidadolq

.(E siugii) quo loitnoo silt ni abid bottimdua ni asasetni tnsnsq net tuoda dñw bstsiooaas

quoi lotnoo silt mot ioivsilsd 3thbbid am-xft tnabnslsb to anoitsiveb silt enirnsxs oW

.lxetnoo wit iii anouazbsiq

noiaalrndua bid 1311135 bus betolbsiq nsewted asonslsThb 'to noitsiudat a atnsasiq It eldaT

iol aoon5lsThb silt aa1qaib oldat silT .atnabns'tsb ohiO inotaswiltuoa silt 'to doss idI ioivsclsd

Page 27: tü - National Bureau of Economic Research · eta mcift bebul3noo aeaso bits aid auooI ai no edt ae3nete'flib neewted gnoita bits tow aleflso eterlw edt noitonitaib aiSbet ot tedtedw

- -

.bnsd eanstaib dose iii atoritaib loocfoa lo iedmun Isiot edt lo tneoleq £ 25 abnad eoitstaib Irnevea

eiom insoisq £.t beitkndua eiedtoifl eiooD tadt astsoibni 11 eldsT ni (o) nmuloo s1qmExs to1

smwolls iefls) toibeiq stab quoi Ionnoo edt nsdt inslq 231 mot aelim net ot oies atohiaib 'ii abid

eiom 4 tuods nedi $ab edt 111 bnsd aidi irk 11th aes\tohiaib 001 'II .(Sfie altioeqa rnift siol

11soiiaitsia ai tnecneq £.tCIo eoneie'fiib £ easo aidi ciT .bstoibeiq rnw nadi be'neado eiew abid

.insoffinsia

ie'eM ((o) nmuloo) aiedtoifl aioo) tla .eldsi edt iii aineitsq eldaton 3ffl08 eta eiedT

aeonsiaib is aioibeiq lebom quoig lotnoo edt nadt '1tcieupet eiom bid (e) dtusiT aiuoJ bus (b)

ietsei edtIo emon is yltneupeft eiocn bid dtusiT bits ie'eM bnoos2 .aael tO aelint Ot iuodslo

aael bid (d) nebiofi bits ((1) bits (s) anmuloo) blot) wobseM\eontsefl biidT .alsvietni eonsiaib

wobseM bus nebtofi tyllsnu1 .aelim 0th' usd1 aael asonstaib is atoibeiq lebom edt usd1 ltneupet

.aelun 001 03 OX' tuods lo aeonstaib ts ylicieupet etom bid blot)

edt neewted eoneieftib edt no beasd alsubiaei iol noitsiudsi ialimia £ ayslqaib £1 eldsT

tneoieq s. as beslqaib eta alsubiaei edT .noiioibeiq quoig loiinoo edt bns tSbjd beitftndua Isutos

betsluolso 21 ogetso eonstaib isluoinsq £ idI noitsiveb tneoieq es'tevs edT .bid betoibsiqlo

.aehogetso eonstaib 101 aeldahsv iotsoibni lo tea £ 110 mill dose 101 alsubiaei edt gniaaei&et yd

.bid edtlo level edt no ylogetso esustaib taluoiftsq £10 belie !snigism edt aslqaib eldst edT

ci betoibeiq nsdt iedid tneoieq £2 tuods abid ((o) nmuloo) nedtoia nooD e1qmsxe iol

betoibeiq bits Isutos neewied noitsiveb edT .inslq iiedt mot aehin net ot oies eta tacIt atoiitaib

sill 1oi .sldohnv mobnn illnomoH B ol noitninixoiqqs nn no heend noilorfi scillo ions lnthnzM sill sluqmoo sW botniooean slIM sldai-iav mobnsn B ei lilidndmq hsloibsiq silt lath toni silt sionz ow nottaluols3 SIlo aseoqwq

mm nnft silt tacit abidlo iotoov scillo Inomols 'cnn nath issltn abid bssiSbnst sill ot aninsisi 573 ow Cbid lauton yH .bstlzindua SYBIl

Page 28: tü - National Bureau of Economic Research · eta mcift bebul3noo aeaso bits aid auooI ai no edt ae3nete'flib neewted gnoita bits tow aleflso eterlw edt noitonitaib aiSbet ot tedtedw

- -

nash iedicI tneoieq V.0 tuods 21 'sws aslirn 0 of not atobtaib of aiooD 'd bettirndua 518 taut abid

II .(quo Ioitnoo edt evoda tneoieq 0.01 tuods .e.i) ytogetso net of otes edt tol noitsiveb edt

ni hide a iol iqooxe anibbid quoi Ioitnoo of thoitnebi ant nrth ialuoitrsq £10 9thbbid thulos silt

bid edt ni flicla £ nisgA .flide silt 'to esia edt aia1qaib £1 eldaT ni woi tail edt neil tqeoietni edt

noitqeoxe silt if tiw) abid etrcnfi doss tud wew'to tnioq evitutsqmoo £ inot snillet ton al noitondl

easetoob (icmlq ati niot 181 bid ton asob doidw atodtoia atoo) baa ebid bnaid eohtsefl 'to

abid nebiofi 3!qmaxe io1 .eonataib cltivz 'linaoffinie noitoibeiq quotg Ioitnoo edt of evits!ei

of OV 'to eonataib £ is insoieq evil tuods 'd abid quoi 1011(103 edt ascii tellacria eta ((d) nrnuloo)

.acnensq islimia tididx, blo€) wobseM baa dtuaiT ts'eM .eeliuix 08

Isoitaitata iol feet eW .noidait Iellnsq £ cii evaded earth iedtedw no auoo't ew £1 eldsT nI

.eiubeooiq biabnata £ gniau emil tnabne'leb edt tol gaibbidlo ytilidadrnq edt iii sonebneqebni

.ioivsded noiaaimdue bidlo eonebneqebni eaivnisq 'to fast £ 'to ai!uae'x edt s1qeib ew El eldaT cii

becilatniam edt baa noitsmiomni oilduq no beaad noitos tnebneqebni'to aiaedtoq'd Hun sift iebnu

abid nriil ialuoittsq eno tedtedwlo sgbslwocd 1ebom noiaaimdua tidotq uiolo anoitaoffiooqa

'to aiaedtoqd evitarneith as iebnU bid oath cad craft terliona iedteilw tozbeiq qled ton bluoda

bets!eneinil eta anoiaioeb noiaaicndua edt rioxtsoolla Ishofrnet 10 3nibbid iatnerne1qmoo teritie

'to easo edt nI .aeob iodto edt iScIW ioibeiq aqiod aevaded tedcnem lehso eno won gniwonA baa

eaao aidi nI bid oats aiedmem nh tenlto ascii abid iedmem Ienso sno Ii anibbid 'çisineme1qmoo

loliso aaoios bets!enoo i1evitiaoq ai noitsupe 8nibbid evititeqmoo eth'to noitioq benialqxenu edt

Iehso iedio nedt abid tedmem lshso isluoitiaq alt jxoiisoolls laiiotthoilo eaao edt nil .annft

.nvowod Jejtsm ovitiloqmoo s cii Jainsq ciso O8I3VE svoda yllsitnBiadu2 sm mu ahid dw thslqxo ot MmI es ii .(8QI) ioIoDlio (Côo-Iôô .qq EQQI) onsoxO sa

Page 29: tü - National Bureau of Economic Research · eta mcift bebul3noo aeaso bits aid auooI ai no edt ae3nete'flib neewted gnoita bits tow aleflso eterlw edt noitonitaib aiSbet ot tedtedw

- -

noitsupe gnibbid evititeqrnoo eriflo noihoq benis!qxenu orb nedT .bid of ton bnet 111w etedmem

noltaleno3 narrrtseq2 edt 's!qaib ow El eldsT jil .a'zedmern 131153 220135 beinlenoo '!ovits8eit 21

tidgi'! quoi lo'ItnoQ silt no beend athubiest botd€iewIo Ssq athau betuqtnoo atnoi3ffioo3

dtocJ taniaa iewoq and ow ow tacit noitE!onO3 rnes 10 eonebneqsbni idt test edT .elobom

nojatoeb noiaeimdua ooiitnea edtlo noitxoq bonislqxenu edt tacIt wode atluaet silT 8.aevitsrnetth

is tna3fiinie bits) noiaioeb ieeM edtlo noitxoq benislqxenu silt if tiw betalonos ylovitiaoq anw

nebtoa :awolldt en eta airnil lo aiinq iodto silt tol etlucet tnsoftin&ie sifT (level btabnata yits

nobioH iltiw iltuniT bits ;lls if tiw ieeM ;dtusiT bits teeM dtiw etooD ;dtustT bits te'eM dtiw

te'eM edt to1 evitieoq bits eta1 eta atnernffieo3 noitalenos nsrrnaeq2 edT .te'eM bits atooD

.atiaq atooD bits dtunT

itT .abid bettimdua edtlo love! edt no bsesd elsubiest tdt aialsns talirnia £ rcnoheq oW

eaivniaq io't test a lo atluast edt bits tnoioIfiso3 noitsienos nsrrriseq2 edt 's!qaib ow l I eldaT

no beand noitos tnsbneqsbnilo eieodtoq'r1 ilun silt tobnu .ioivnrled gitibbid 'to eonebneqobcxi

taclw 10 ebelwonA enoitaups level bid silt lo noitsoffiosqe boniatniarn edt bits noitsm-icfini otlduq

evitncnetln its tebnU .bid 111w m-th tedtons tndw toibetq qled ton eeob bid anfi izluoiriaq no

betoibotq edt evoda bid tedment leriso otto tacit gniwoml gnibbid yiatnemelqrnoo 10 aiaedtoqyil

ebid tedmem lenso eno II Jove! tacit evods bid 111w errnfi letino toilto iedtedw toibetq aq!ecl level

tadt e!qcnsxs tot woda atlucet edT 0tfr bid of leAil oath em a,edcnern nit teilto nodt 4giil

.atrltuaiT dtiw betalenoo ltnsoftinze yllsoitettsta eaw bid eteaSseflho nothoq benislqxenu edt

rnot baltimo Eaw sldnncv tnatioqnñ nail noitos tnobnoqobth o eiaothocd hun oil to oem '(am ortaitsia last sifr8 .'hslimia annil oeo± atodils taut Ithom tidotdi qum Ioztnoo sift

quoi Ioitnoo oil no bead a!subiaoi silt ioi botuqmoo inolofflooo noitsisTroo nannsoqC 31112! oulautata teot oil F

.atnsbnoIobio xiaq tao tol hebom enibbid on era ereritli ,'(oaliqrtnoo noitsoolla Isiiotthot oviioob its iebrw flint silt toe jeu ot xewoq sf1111 east last aidT °

omaa silt ni toirtaib omsa sift th arodniom enh mofi abid ovisedo ton tileim ow seusoed 1ebid '(iatnsmolqmoo

Page 30: tü - National Bureau of Economic Research · eta mcift bebul3noo aeaso bits aid auooI ai no edt ae3nete'flib neewted gnoita bits tow aleflso eterlw edt noitonitaib aiSbet ot tedtedw

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wobseM bus dtusiT atooD jiebtofl dtiw tseM ;dtusiT bus iseM ci tiw atooD ;dtusiT bus

rol tasaisi eta assia e!qrnn2 iftunT bus iesM dtiw blot) wobseM bus Ms dtiw ritusiT ;blof)

.añsq aiooD bus dtuwtT assM eeiclt edt

11 eldsT moiq .aiooD bus ieyeMIo aevitsifloasiqet d suomitast edt ttoqqua atluasi mO

yxstnsmelqmoo £ dtiw tnstaianoo eta iltusiT bus ieeM nooD'1o ioivsded edt tacit e'nsado ow

is beitimdua eta betoeqxe unit abid siom e3nia atus!q tied I ot 52013 asia edt ni emedea 3nibbid

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£ dtiw inetaianoo oath sin annft sent easdt tol 4'l bus CI aeldaT cr1 ailuasi edT .dicl

bid cr1 anoitsierioc tnssftinia '4lnitaitsta awoda CI eldsT .ecuedoa gnibbid istnemelqmoa

ot bust oath aisdto edt usd3 abid unfi saedflo eno Ii tacit athtaeua acrnfi eaedt yd anoiaaimdua

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bus sth ytimixoiq riedt unit tnetxe tetsela £ 01) iedtsgot evom 03 bust abid iiedt aiaey sums

dtiw easetoeb abid eiedw ytota evititeqmoo £ lIsts 01 tluofflib ai ii .Qoiberq bluow st edt

eaeclt lo ioivsded evilaellos edt atluasi mo b aiesd silt nO .acrnft sasdt rob ob ysdt as ssustaib

.eviaulloo as bathstoatsdo teed ci arinfi esult

nebtofi bus blot) wobssM\sohissa tsdt awoda II eldaT acrnfi ,edto silt ot tooqast cltiw

aeldaT .sgstusvbs evitarsqmoo £ ovad bluow yedt eiodw assis lasol risdt cr1 gnibbid moft ulster

betsisitos ci nebrofi bus blot) wobs,M\sohtaefl yd arnbbid tacit esnobive ebivoiq N bus CI

8thvlovth smados auibbid yistnemelqcnoo £ dtiw tnstaiauoo 21 cnsttaq SIT .3uibbid diusiT dtiw

cml scout

Page 31: tü - National Bureau of Economic Research · eta mcift bebul3noo aeaso bits aid auooI ai no edt ae3nete'flib neewted gnoita bits tow aleflso eterlw edt noitonitaib aiSbet ot tedtedw

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Page 32: tü - National Bureau of Economic Research · eta mcift bebul3noo aeaso bits aid auooI ai no edt ae3nete'flib neewted gnoita bits tow aleflso eterlw edt noitonitaib aiSbet ot tedtedw

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