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2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 1
Systemic Vulnerability and Risk Analysis of Buildings and Infrastructure
in the City of Thessaloniki, Greece
Kyriazis Pitilakis, Sotiris Argyroudis, Jacopo Selva, Kalliopi Kakderi (AUTH) Bijan Khazai (KIT)
2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 2
New fragility curves (buildings, bridges) (UPAT) Seismic hazard – Geotechnical zonation Seismic risk – losses - Building stock (Municipality of Thessaloniki) - Main road network (interaction with buildings) - Main electric power network (transmission system) - Main water supply system (interaction with electric
power network) Transportation accessibility assessment (METU) Shelter demand assessment (KIT) Port of Thessaloniki (harbor components, interaction
with electric power network) (AUTH)
Application to the city of Thessaloniki
2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 3
Seismicity - Tectonics
Geographical distribution of earthquake events with
M ≥4.0
SHARE 2013
Tectonics
2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 4
Seismic zones
GRAS388
GRAS392
GRAS390
MKAS212
MKAS389
26°0'0"E
26°0'0"E
25°0'0"E
25°0'0"E
24°0'0"E
24°0'0"E
23°0'0"E
23°0'0"E
22°0'0"E
22°0'0"E
42°0'0"N 42°0'0"N
41°0'0"N 41°0'0"N
40°0'0"N 40°0'0"N
SHARE 2013
SYNER-G application
2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 5
Geotechnical classification according to EC8
Geotechnical classification (EC8)
23°2'0"E
23°2'0"E
23°0'0"E
23°0'0"E
22°58'0"E
22°58'0"E
22°56'0"E
22°56'0"E
22°54'0"E
22°54'0"E
22°52'0"E
22°52'0"E
22°50'0"E
22°50'0"E
22°48'0"E
22°48'0"E
22°46'0"E
22°46'0"E
22°44'0"E
22°44'0"E
22°42'0"E
22°42'0"E
22°40'0"E
22°40'0"E
40°44'0"N 40°44'0"N
40°42'0"N 40°42'0"N
40°40'0"N 40°40'0"N
40°38'0"N 40°38'0"N
40°36'0"N 40°36'0"N
40°34'0"N 40°34'0"N
40°32'0"N 40°32'0"N
40°30'0"N 40°30'0"N
23°2'0"E
23°2'0"E
23°0'0"E
23°0'0"E
22°58'0"E
22°58'0"E
22°56'0"E
22°56'0"E
22°54'0"E
22°54'0"E
22°52'0"E
22°52'0"E
22°50'0"E
22°50'0"E
22°48'0"E
22°48'0"E
22°46'0"E
22°46'0"E
22°44'0"E
22°44'0"E
22°42'0"E
22°42'0"E
22°40'0"E
22°40'0"E
40°44'0"N 40°44'0"N
40°42'0"N 40°42'0"N
40°40'0"N 40°40'0"N
40°38'0"N 40°38'0"N
40°36'0"N 40°36'0"N
40°34'0"N 40°34'0"N
40°32'0"N 40°32'0"N
40°30'0"N 40°30'0"N
Liquefaction susceptibility (HAZUS, NIBS 2004)
ABC
0: None3: Moderate5: Very High
None Moderate High
2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 6
20 Sub Districts
Sub-City Districts – European Urban Audit (Eurostat)
ID SCD name Population 0 Ladadika-Dikastirion squ. 15868 1 St.George-Rotonda 19260 2 University-Int.Exhib.Center-White Tower 21376 3 PAOK-Malakopi 21376 4 Papafio-St.Constantine-Military Hospital 17385 5 Toumba-St.Fanourios-Ydragogio 18542 6 Vlatadon-St.Dimitrios-Lachanagora 16319 7 Municipal Hospital-Fylakes (Penitentiary) 16709 8 Athinon 18860 9 Analipsi-Dermatologiko 19619 10 Nea Paralia-Municipal Library 20134 11 Railway Station-Xirokrini 16669 12 Pasha Hamam-Tyroloi 15454 13 Charilaou-Exohes 26815 14 Nomarchia-Vafopoulio-Depau 25455 15 School for the blind-Sailing Club 15822 16 Constantinoupoleos-Delfon-Botsari 16761 17 Ippokratio 16712 18 Ecclesiastic School-Kato Toumba 20724 19 Makedonia Palace-Paedagogiki Academia 16729
2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 7
Building Stock – Study area • buildings blocks (study area): 2,893
• buildings (study area): 27,738 (92% R/C, 8% masonry)
• inhabitants: 376,589 (municipality), 790,824 (city)
0 1,000 2,000500
Meters
nTotal0 - 5
5 - 15
15 - 30
30 - 80
>80
Number of buildings
2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 9
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8
x 10-3
10-5
10-4
10-3
10-2
10-1
100
BDG-deaths
B
DG
-death
s
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 100000
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.41.5
x 10-5
# runs
BD
G-d
eath
s
mean
mean +/- std
Building stock – Average Losses (Deaths) Results (10,000 runs)
BD
G (d
eath
s %
of t
otal
pop
.)
# runs
moving average
0.48x10-05
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8
x 10-3
10-5
10-4
10-3
10-2
10-1
100
BDG-deaths
B
DG
-death
s
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 100000
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.41.5
x 10-5
# runs
BD
G-d
eath
s
mean
mean +/- std
λ (B
DG
-dea
ths)
Deaths (% of total pop.)
Mean Annual Frequency of exceedance
x 790.824 = 4 deaths (population)
deaths with Tm= 500 years (λ=0.002) 0.255x10-03 x 790.824 = 201 deaths
2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 10
Building stock: Losses for Tm=500yrs 5 seismic zones (10,000 runs)
Collapses
Yield
2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 11
Deaths
Injured
Building stock: Losses for Tm=500yrs 5 seismic zones (10,000 runs)
2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 12
Building stock: Losses for Tm=500yrs 5 seismic zones (10,000 runs)
Displaced people (good weather)
Displaced people (bad weather)
2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 13
Bridges/Overpass: • Single span (non-monolithic): 15 • Multiple spans: 44
Roads (236 km) • Freeway, Major arterial: 172 km • Secondary arterial, Collective roads: 64 km
• Road distance <= 5m from buildings: 20 km
Application to RDN of Thessaloniki
2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 14
Network connectivity: Performance Indicators Simple Connectivity Loss (SCL): Connectivity loss between TAZs
Weighted Connectivity loss (WCL): Weighted (over travel speed) connectivity loss between TAZs
Bridge/road
failure
Blocked by
overpass bridges
Blocked by
buildings
2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 15
Correlation of broken bridges to network connectivity
Ring road Interchange K17
Interchange with railway
Road to airport
Ring road Interchange K18
Interchange (Monastiriou)
2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 16
Effect of interaction with collapsed buildings Road Network Risk Curve
Weighted Connectivity Loss (WCL)
Mea
n A
nnua
l Fre
quen
cy
of e
xcee
danc
e (λ
)
Interaction with BDG
no interaction with BDG
20% 33%
2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 17
Application to Water Supply System of Thessaloniki
Features:
- 21 pumps
- 11 tanks
- pipes ~280 km
- 437 demand nodes
2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 18
Correlation of damaged pipes & broken EPN transmission stations to network connectivity
2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 19
interaction
no interaction Mea
n A
nnua
l Fre
quen
cy
of e
xcee
danc
e (λ
)
Weighted Connectivity Loss (WCL)
System functionality Tm= 1000 years of WCL
1% 1.8%
Water Supply System Risk Curve Effect of interaction with Electric Power Network
2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 20
Multi-criteria Shelter Demand Model
2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 21
Shelter Needs Model
Shelter Needs Index
(SNI)
0.00 - 0.03 low 0.03 - 0.06
0.06 - 0.19
0.19 - 0.33 0.33 - 0.61 high
Uninhabitable Buildings(Bad Weather Conditions)
SCD_WGS84Uninhabitable Buildings Goal
0,000000 - 0,051637
0,051638 - 0,140218
0,140219 - 0,292172
0,292173 - 0,552840
0,552841 - 1,000000