SWFDP Key Issues for GIFS-TIGGE

SG-SWFDP 23 Feb 2010

• The key issue: how to combine data from different ensembles– Until we know more about this, our

requirements can only be very usual ones

2 sets of requirements:- Short term- Longer term

Short-term requirements

• Usual stuff: …

Tools for Tropical Convection• Tropical convection is key to severe weather

prediction in many developing countries– Global models are generally poor due to

parameterized convection– Research required into better diagnostics

• Non-hydrostatic hi-res modeling – expensive!• Feature based diagnostics eg convergence lines• More reliable model field indicators eg mid-level moisture

fields (found useful in N. Australia)• Downscaling – how to estimate peak convective rainfall

accumulations from grid-box average parameterized amounts

– Calibration

Long term requirements

• Possibility of generating products from any combination of TIGGE data-base of EPS

– Guidance on how to combine fields usefully• Scientific basis => more research needed!

Tropical Cyclone Issues

• Position and intensity prediction (probabilistic)

• Probabilities relative to user defined thresholds:• Wind strength• Quantitative Precipitation • Surge

– Cyclone following and gridded probabilities

• Strike probabilities at user defined points• Probability of time of arrival of max rainfall, wind

thresholds at user defined points

• Even longer term requirement: interactive capability which would permit centres, especially regional centres, to generate user driven products, depending on the nature of events and situations– Products using local SWFDP thresholds– Interactive EPSgrams (locations, parameters)– …

Verification

• Improved objective verification of relevant severe weather phenomena and impacts– Including SERA impact verification– Consistent observational data– Methods for verification of warnings which

may be probabilistic or « low confidence over a large area »

SWFDP Key Issues for GIFS-TIGGE

Timeline:

End of 2010