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The TIGGE experience
Richard Swinbank and Masayuki Kyouda
with thanks to members of GIFS-TIGGE WG & THORPEX IPO
S2S project planning group meeting, Exeter, February 2013
The TIGGE experience
Aims Database content Technical – how we run TIGGE TIGGE-based products Looking ahead, post THORPEX
TIGGE THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble
A major component of THORPEX: a WMO World Weather Research Programme to accelerate the improvements in the accuracy of 1-day to 2-week high-impact weather forecasts
GEO task WE-01-C1 – “Global Multi-Model Prediction System for High-Impact Weather”
Objectives: Enhance collaboration on ensemble prediction, both internationally
and between operational centres & universities. Facilitate research on ensemble prediction methods, especially
methods to combine ensembles and to correct systematic errors Enable evolution towards a prototype operational system, the “Global
Interactive Forecast System”
TIGGE data Ten of the leading global forecast centres are providing
regular ensemble predictions to support research on predictability, dynamical processes and the development of probabilistic forecasting methods.
TIGGE data is made available for research after a 48-hour delay.
The TIGGE dataset has proved invaluable as a resource for a wide range of research projects. Over 70 articles related to TIGGE have been published in the scientific literature
Summary of TIGGE database
CentreEnsemblemembers
Output dataresolution
Forecastlength
Forecasts per day
Fields (out of 73)
Start date
BoM* 33 1.50º x 1.50º 10 day 2 55 3 Sep 07
CMA 15 0.56º x 0.56º 10 day 2 60 15 May 07
MSC 21 0.9º x 0.9º 16 day 2 56 3 Oct 07
CPTEC 15 0.94º x 0.94º 15 day 2 55 1 Feb 08
ECMWF 51N200 (Reduced
Gaussian)N128 after day 10
15 day 2 70 1 Oct 06
JMA 51 1.25º x 1.25º 9 day 1 61 1 Oct 06
KMA 24 0.56º x 0.38º 10 day 2 46 28 Dec 07
Météo-France 35 1.50º x 1.50º 4.5 day 2 62 25 Oct 07
NCEP 21 1.00º x 1.00º 16 day 4 69 5 Mar 07
UKMO 24 0.83º x 0.55º 15 day 2 72 1 Oct 06
* Delivery of BoM data currently suspended
TIGGE data flows The ensemble prediction data is transferred from the data
providers to one of the data centres (using LDM, FTP or HTTP). After checking, the data is then sent on to the other data centres. The data is archived and made available to users 48 hours after
initial forecast time.
TIGGE features All data are archived at
native resolution (on native grid when possible)
Data may be interpolated on any limited-area lat-lon grid defined by the user just before download
Field names, definitions, units, accumulation times, (etc.) are fully standardized
Data gaps are continuously monitored and every effort is made to repair them quickly
All data provided in GRIB2 (WMO standard data format)
Slide 7AMS - IIPS - 2012
NCAR
EPS 1 EPS 2 EPS n
academic NHMSotherusers
Predictability science
Applications
ECMWF CMA
TIGGE Archive The TIGGE database now contains over five years of global
forecast data. Data volume now exceeds 520 terabytes (2.6 billion fields). Around 100 users access TIGGE data every month.
2011/2012 TIGGE Archive Usage (All Portals)
1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11
Apr-11 May-11
Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12
Month
Volu
me
(GB)
0
30
60
90
120
150
Num
ber o
f Use
rs (C
ount
)
Vol Accessed (GB)
Vol Delivered (GB)
# Active Users
TIGGE – Research focus
The TIGGE project (& GIFS-TIGGE working group) was originally focused on the technical work enabling the establishment of the TIGGE archive dataset. The main scientific aspects of THORPEX were covered by Predictability & Dynamical Processes WG, and also Data Assimilation & Observing Systems WG(s).Following the successful establishment of the TIGGE dataset, the focus of the GIFS-TIGGE working group has shifted towards research on ensemble forecasting. Particular topics of interest include:
a posteriori calibration of ensemble forecasts; combination of ensembles produced by multiple models; research on and development of probabilistic forecast products.
More recently, we have broadened our range of interest to cover improvement of EPSs, including:
representing uncertainties in initial conditions stochastic physics & other techniques to account for model error
TIGGE development
Calibration, combination, products
EPS improvement
Time
Evolution of TIGGE & GIFS
The GIFS-TIGGE should also be a forum to focus on R&D directed at improving our EPS systems, to help us develop a “virtuous circle”.
In addition to post-processing and applications of EPS and EPS developments, we will also maintain an interest in ensemble verification and links with convective-scale EPS and the new sub-seasonal to seasonal group.
… to be considered further in post-THORPEX plans.
Towards the Global Interactive Forecast System (GIFS)
The THORPEX implementation plan had a grand vision for the development of a Global Interactive Forecast System. Although our plans are now more modest, one key element of GIFS that we are developing is the use of probabilistic forecast products.
Many weather forecast situations are low probability but high risk – unlikely but potentially catastrophic. Probabilistic forecasting is a powerful tool to improve early warning of high-impact events.
Using the TIGGE dataset, we are developing and evaluating probabilistic products to deliver improved forecasts of high-impact weather.
The products are focused on Tropical cyclones Heavy precipitation Strong winds
Links with Severe Weather FDP
EPS1 EPS2 EPS3
Generate Products
Regional Centre
users
National Centre
National Centre
National Centre
users usersusers
In-SituObservations
AirborneObservations
Satellite Observations
We are collaborating with WMO Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Project (SWFDP) and other projects to ensure that products address
needs of operational forecasters and end users;
to provide an environment for the evaluation of prototype products.
GIFS will use global-regional-national cascade pioneered by the SWFDP.
Web-enabled technology will be used for generation and distribution of products.
Tropical cyclones
The GIFS-TIGGE working group first set up a pilot project for the exchange of real-time tropical cyclone track predictions using “Cyclone XML” format, initially to support the THORPEX Pacific-Asia Regional Campaign (T-PARC)
Several types of products to support TC forecasting have been developed using those data.
Example of combined TC track forecasts (Met Office + ECMWF)
Warnings of other severe weather events
More recently, prototype products have been developed based on gridded forecast data, such as this product which highlights the risk of heavy rainfall.
Prototype product courtesy Mio Matsueda
Similar products also available for
• hot & cold temperatures,
• strong winds
Steps to progress use of GIFS products in SWFDP
Progress so far TC products based on CXML data; prototype products based on
gridded TIGGE forecast data Provided documentation of prototype products GIFS-TIGGE WG co-chair attended recent SWFDP SG meeting Seek feedback from RSMCs coordinating SWFDP regional
subprojects
Current Develop real-time products for SWFDP based on preferred
prototypes, e.g., Multi-model versions of TC products; near real-time versions of highest priority rainfall products.
Supply products to SWFDP regional websites
Future Provide training on GIFS products via SWFDP
TIGGE-LAM: TIGGE for limited-area models
To complement the global TIGGE project, a TIGGE-LAM panel was set up to coordinate the development of Limited Area Model Ensemble Prediction Systems.
The panel facilitates the interoperability of the different regional ensemble systems and coordinates the archiving of limited-area ensemble forecasts.
The TIGGE-LAM panel is chaired by Tiziana Paccagnella and works closely with the GIFS-TIGGE working group.
The three TIGGE archive centres have agreed to host a sub-set of high priority data, and archiving of LAM EPS data has now started.
With the increasing emphasis on convective-scale ensembles, TIGGE-LAM works closely with the WWRP Mesoscale Weather Forecasting Research group, as well as GIFS-TIGGE.
The TIGGE LAM Panel now structured in regional sub-groups to facilitate the focus on regional activities, with links to THORPEX regional committees.
More information is available from the TIGGE-LAM website http://www.smr.arpa.emr.it/tiggelam/.
GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011
GEOWOW (GEOSS interoperability for Weather, Ocean and Water) is a 3-year EU-funded FP7 project started September 2011.
The Weather component (WP4) includes TIGGE archive enhancements: TIGGE-LAM archive Time-series data – for specified set of locations Provision of data in netcdf format as alternative to GRIB2
Other developments
Clear need for coordination with S2S archive, as well as TIGGE-LAM – a trio of complementary datasets
Supplementary data Observations – NCAR model validation portal
Possible future enhancements (to be discussed) Additional fields (e.g. ice-related parameters for polar project) Reforecast data
Resolution Currently TIGGE archives data at native model resolution, but
need to consider standard or maximum resolution in future.
Post-THORPEX landscape
Still fluid, but a plausible scenario is: WWRP “Predictability and Ensemble Forecasting”
working group, focusing on science of dynamics & predictability and ensemble forecasting.
Small technical “liaison group” to manage TIGGE database (could include S2S & TIGGE-LAM too?)
New “high-impact weather” project to continue some of THORPEX R&D, with more of a focus on short-range convective-scale resolution. To be discussed at Karlsruhe workshop in March.
WWRP-THORPEX
TIGGE dataset
UsersPredictability, dynamics, probabilistic forecasting
PDP working group
GIFS-TIGGE working group
TIGGE-LAM panel
TIGGE-LAMdataset
WWRP
TIGGE dataset
UsersSub-seasonal to seasonal and polar predictability,
high-impact weather, probabilistic forecasting, RDPs, FDPs
P&EF expert team
Datasetliaison group
TIGGE-LAMdataset
HIW project team
S2S projectteam
S2S dataset
WCRP
Any Questions?