Suyanto_ Macroeconomics Basic

8/6/2019 Suyanto_ Macroeconomics Basic

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MACROECONOMICS

By Suyanto

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WHAT MACROECONOMICS IS

Macroeconomics is concern with the structure,

performance, and behavior of the economy as

whole

Key Variables of Macroeconomics:

Total output of the economy Aggregate price level

Employment

Interest rate

Wage rate

Foreign exchange rate

Macroeconomics is Policy Oriented


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BASIC APPROACH TO MACROECONOMICS

MONEY

INTEREST RATE INCOME

AGGREGATE DEMAND

GOODMARKET

AGGREGATESUPPLY

FISCALPOLICY

PRICE, OUTPUTUN-EMPLOYMENT

WAGESEXPECTATION


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CLASSICAL ECONOMIST(1770 1930)

ADAM SMITH, DAVID HUME, DAVID RICARDO

JAMES STUART MILL, THOMAS MALTHUS

EKONOMI MENUJU KEADAAN FULL-EMPLOYMENTSECARA OTOMATIS KE CAPITALISM

SUPPLY CREATE ITS OWN DEMAND (SAYS LAW)CAMPUR TANGAN PEMERINTAH DI BIDANG EKONOMI

DI HAPUS


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KEYNES(1883 1946)

CAMPUR TANGAN PEMERINTAH SECARAAKTIF DALAM EKONOMI AKAN DAPAT

MENCAPAI FULL EMPLOYMENTDEMAND CREATE ITS OWN SUPPLY

MASALAH STAGFLATION

TINGKAT INFLASI DAN UNEMPLOYMENT TINGGI

MODEL TEORY INI RUNTUH


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FRIEDMAN - PHILIPS

DALAM JANGKA PANJANG, SUATU BANGSAAKAN MENGALAMI TINGKAT PENGANGGURAN

YANG ALAMISEARAH DENGAN MODEL EKONOMI CLASSIC

1. EKONOMI AKAN BEKERJA SECARA OTOMATISPALING TIDAK MENUJU NATURAL UNEMPLOYMENT

2. PERUBAHAN SUPPLY OF MONEY TIDAK BERPENGARUHATAS VARIABLE UTAMA (EMPLOYMENT DAN OUTPUT)


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PASAR BARANG

C = Co + bYd

I = Io + diYd = Y T

G = Go

T = To + tY

Keterangan:

i= tingkat bunga (%), b= MPC, t= tingkat pajak (taxrate), d=elastisitas (koefisien) investasi terhadap

tingkat bungab, t >0 sedang d


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S = Yd C

= (Y-T) (Co +bYd)

= {Y- (To+tY)} {Co+b(Y-T)}

= (Y- To tY) {Co + b(Y-(To+tY)}

= (Y- To tY) (Co+bY-bTo-btY)

= Y To tY Co-bY+bTo+btY= Y tY-bY+btY To- Co+bTo

= (1-t-b+bt)Y (Co+To-bTo)

Bandingkan dengan:

S = -Co +(1-b)Y (jika C = Co + bY)


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KESEIMBANGAN (IS FUNCTION)

I = S

Io +di = (1-t-b+bt)Y (Co+To-bTo)

(1-t-b+bt)Y = Io +di + (Co+To-bTo)

(1-t-b+bt)Y = di + (Io+Co+To-bTo)

Y = {(d/(1-t-b+bt)}i +

{(Io+Co+To-bTo)/(1-t-b+bt)} (Keseimbangan PasarBarang)

Ket:

{(d/(1-t-b+bt)} 0 (multiplier utk G)


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PERMINTAAN UANG

a. Klasik:Irving Fisher: MV = PT,

asumsi: V dan T konstan

Md = MsImplikasi:

M searah dan proporsional terhadap P

Pengendalian inflasi mel. Ms

Cambridge: M = k. PQ = k.Y

M/P = k.Q


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Permintaan Uang: Transaksi

Md1

Y

Md1-2=k2.Y

Md1-1=k1.Y


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PERMINTAAN UANG

b. Keynes:

L = M(Y) + M(i)

M(Y) = a + b.Y; b>0; transakiM(i) = a + i;


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Permintaan Uang: Spekulasi

i

Md-2

i1

i2

Md2-1 Md2-2


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TOOLS OF THE CENTRAL BANKING

Discount Rate

RR

OMO

OperatingTarget:

Reserve, BM,

interest

Monetary

Aggregate

Interest

Rate

GOALS :

Employment

Price Stability

BOP

Growth


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PASAR UANG TK. BUNGA

L

MS1

MS2

i

M

io

i1

M1 Mo


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Keseimbangan Pasar Uang: LM Curve

What is LM Curve How to derive LM Curve

Why do LM Curve Shift and Rotate?

i2

i1


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Aggregate Demand

Keynes Effect:penurunan harga akan menyebabkan penawaran

uang riil naik, sehingga LM bergeser ke kanan

i LM(mo,p1) LM(mo,p2) p

Y YY1 Y2

p1

p2

Y1 Y2

AD


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Aggregate Demand

Pigou Effect:penurunan harga akan menyebabkan naiknya kas riil (real

cash balance); yang akan menyebabkan konsumsi naik,

sehingga IS bergeser ke kanan

i

Y Y

p

i1

i2

IS(p1)

IS(p2)

LM p1

p2

Y1Y2 Y1 Y2

AD


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Aggregate Supply

Y P

LL*L1L2

Y*

Y1

Y2

Y*

AS

K

C

Classical AS=ASCY*, Keynes AS =KC

Y1Y2

P*

P1

P2


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Classical Aggregate Supply (Ag.S):

Upah fleksibel, penurunan harga, akan

menyebabkan upah nominal juga turun; upah

riil tetap, di pasar kerja keseimbangan tdk

berubah, output tetap berada di FE

Keynes Aggregate Supply (Ag.S):

Upah tidak fleksibel, penurunan harga tidak

menyebabkan upah nominal turun, tetapi upah

riil turun, turunnya upah riil menyebabkan

penurunan penyerapan TK di pasar kerja,

akibatnya output menurun, suplai berkurang


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KESEIMBANGAN UMUM

KLASIK KEYNES

P

GDP = Y GDP = Y

P

AgD

AgSAgS

AgD

Y* Y*

P*Pe

Ye


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MACROECONOMICPOLICY


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GENERAL LEVEL OFECONOMIC ACTIVITYGNP, INFLATION

THE CENTRAL BANK USES TOOLSOF MONETARY POLICY TO CHANGE

* INTEREST RATE AND SUPPLY OF MONEY

THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM IS THE FIRSTPOINT OF IMPACT OF

MONETARY POLICY

MONETARY POLICY IS ULTIMATELYCONCERNED WITH CHANGING THE

GENERAL LEVEL OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY


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KEBIJAKAN MONETER

MEMERLUKAN

THEORY AND MODELTENTANG BEKERJANYA

PEREKONOMIAN.

THEORY DIPERLUKANUNTUK MENJELASKAN

BAGAIMANA PERUBAHANDALAM SUPPLY OF MONEYBERPENGARUH TERHADAP

VARIABEL ECONOMY


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TOOL OFMONETARY POLICY

THE GENERAL TOOLS :1. OPEN MARKET OPERATION2. CHANGE IN RESERVE

REQUIREMENT3. DISCOUNT MECHANISM

THE SPECIFIC TOOLS:1. MARGIN REQUIREMENT

(REGULATION T, U AND G)2. INTEREST RATE CEILING

ON DEPOSIT ( REGULATION Q)

3. REGULATION W

OBJECTIVE

1. GROWTH RATE

2. INFLATION RATE

3. UNEMPLOYMENTRATE

4. REDISTRIBUTIONOF INCOME

5. BALANCE OFPAYMENT

6. EFFICIENCY


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ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

GNP, PRICE LEVEL, UNEMPLOYMENT

POLICY INSTRUMENTS FIRST AFFECTOPERATING TARGET (CENTRAL BANK

FUNDS RATE & RESERVE)

INDICATORS ALSO BEGIN TO BEINFLUENCED BY CHANGES IN THE

POLICY INSTRUMENT

THE CENTRAL BANK CHANGE POLICYINSTRUMENTS TO INFLUENCE

ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

ECONOMIC ACTIVITYGNP, PRICE LEVEL, UNEMPLOYMENT

CENTRAL BANK OBSERVESECONOMIC ACTIVITY AND

COMPARES WITH DISIRTED GOOLS

FRAMEWORK OF MONETARY POLICY


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KEBIJAKAN MONETER

THE ATTITUDE OF THE POLITICAL AUTHORITYTOWARDS THE MONETARY SYSTEM OF THE

COMMUNITY UNDER ITS CONTROL

THE EFFORT TO REDUCE TO A MINIMUM THEDISADVANTAGES AND INCREASE THE ADVANTA

GE, RESULTING FROM THE EXISTENCE ANDOPERATION OF A MONETARY SYSTEM

ALL MONETARY DECISION AND MEASURESIRRESPECTIVE OF WETHER THEIR AIMS AREMONETARY OR NON-MONETARY, AND ALLMEASURE THAT AIM AT AFFECTING THE

MONETARY SYSTEM


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CIRCLE OF INDONESIAN ECONOMIC PROBLEMS IN CRISIS

MONETARY CONDITIONS

EXCHANGE RATEDECREASE

INFLATIONINCREASE

INTEREST RATEINCREASE

BANKINGTROUBLE

BUSINESSSECTOR IS BAD

UNEMPLOYMENT

INCREASE

CONTRACTION

OF ECONOMY

DECLINEIN CONFIDENCE

SOCIAL PROBLEMSINCREASE


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MS sbg target Interest sbg target

i

MS, LM*

IS

Y*

y1 y2 y3 y4

IS*

LM

Y*

i*

i*

y1 y2 y3 y4

JikaISlebihtdkstabil drpdLM, MSsebagai

target kebijakanmoneter

JikaISlebih stabil drpdLM, tkbunga

sebagai target kebj. Moneter


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MEKANISME TRANSMISI

Kerangka Kerja Evaluasi:a. Structural Model Evidence (Keynesian)

b. Reduce Form Evidence (Monetarist)

A. Structural Model Evidence

Menurut Keynesiaan:

M i I Y

(M Pe i I Y)

B. Monetarist

M ? Y


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PEMETAAN MEKANISME TRANSMISI

KEBIJAKAN MONETER INDONESIA

BI rate SBI rate

PUAB Deposito rate Lending rate

JUB INFLASI

KURS MUINVESTASI


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Kebj. Moneter-Fiskal: IS-LMTx naik dantk bunga SBI turun

i SBI

JUB

SEKTORRIILSEKTORMONETER

C I

Ps Brg

Dom

Ps Brg

LN

Ps Brg

Dom

Ps Brg

LN

Capac

ity

Ps Uang/Mod

Domestik

Ps Uang/Mod

Luar Neg.

Ag.D Ag.S

Tx

NI

i PUAB

i


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ANATOMI INFLASI

INVESTASI KONSUMSI

ALIRAN

MODAL ASING

KEPERCAYAAN TERMOF TRADE

SUKU BUNGA

BEBAN HUTANG

KEPERCAYAAN

NET EXPORT

IMPORTEDINFLATION

FACTORINPUT

SUPPLY

SHOCKS

OUTPUTGAP

SUPPLY

PERMINTAAN

INFLASI

KEBIJAKANINDUSTRI &

TRADE

EXPECTASION

KURS

POLITIK

KREDIT

HARGA L.N

FACTOR NONEKONOMI

FACTOREKONOMI

MUSIM

TECHNOLOGI

DISTRIBUSI


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BEHAVIOUR OF INTEREST

RATES Fisher Effect: When expected inflation

rises, interest rate will rise (causality of

interest rates inflation)

Coverage interest parity: id = if + e

Macroeconomic Policy in The Short-run:


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Macroeconomic Policy in The Short-run:

Mundell Fleming Model

Assumption:small economy with perfect capital mobility (i=i*)price levels at home and abroad are fixed

$/Rp

NX

$/Rp

Y

AE

Y

IS*e1

e2

e1

e2

NX2 NX1 Y2 Y1

Y2 Y1

NX*

NX

Gb.1

Gb.2

Gb.3

2

3

5

4

1


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(under fixed rate)

i

Y

ISoIS1

FB

Fiscal expansion under fix exchange rate, asumption: free capital mobility

LMo LM1

FB : foreign balance


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Mundell Fleming Model (under

Fixed rate)

Government spending Domestic interest rate> foreign interest

rate

Capital inflows , ER tends Buying foreign currency

Domestic Money supply , and

Interest rate Conclusion: Fiscal Policy effective


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fixed rate)

i

Y

ISo

FB

Monetary expansion under fix exchange rate, asumption: free capital mobility

LMo LM1

1

2


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fixed rate)

Domestic money supply

Domestic interest rate < foreign interest rate

Capital outflows, ER tends

Selling foreign currency

Domestic Money supply , and

Interest rate

Conclusion: Fiscal Policy effective/Monetary Policy ineffective


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floating rate)

i

Y

ISoIS1

FB

Fiscal expansion under floating exchange rate, asumption: free capital mobility

LMo LM11

2


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floating rate)

Government spending

Domestic interest rate> foreign interest

rate

Capital inflows , ER (appreciate)

Competitiveness

Net export, IS back Conclusion: Fiscal Policy in effective


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Mundell Mundell Fleming Model

(under floating rate)

i

Y

ISoIS1

FB

Monetary expansion under floating exchange rate, asumption: free capital mobility

LMo LM1


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floating rate)

Domestic money supply, LM

Domestic interest rate < foreign interest rate

Capital outflows, ER (float)

Competitiveness ,

Net Export, IS

Conclusion: Monetary Policy effective


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PolicyInstruments

Fixed ER Floating ER

Fiscal Policy Effective Ineffective

Monetary Policy Ineffective Effective

NERACA PEMBAYARAN DAN KURS MATA UANG


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NERACA PEMBAYARAN DAN KURS MATA UANGNERACA PEMBAYARAN

I. TRANSAKSI BERJALAN (CA)

1. Barang, bersih (Neraca Perdagangan) NX = X - M

a. Ekspor X

b. Impor M

2. Jasa-jasa, bersih S

3. Pendapatan, bersih R

4. Transfer, bersih Tr

Pendapatan faktor produksi neto dr LN F = S + R + Tr

CA = 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 CA = NX + F

II. TRANSAKSI MODAL DAN FINANSIAL(CAP)

7. Transaski Modal CapA

8. Transaksi Finansial CapF

a. Investasi Langsung

b. Investasi Portofolio

c. Investasi lainnya

CAP = 7 + 8 CAP = CapA + CapF

III. SELISIH PERHITUNGAN E

IV. NERACA KESELURUHAN : I + II + III BOP = CA + CAP + E

V. LALU LINTAS MONETER MOV = BOP

VI. CADANGAN DEVISA CAD

Graphic IV.8. Rate of Change of Foreign Exchange Rate in ASEAN 5, 1995-


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Graphic IV.8. Rate of Change of Foreign Exchange Rate in ASEAN 5, 1995

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Year

RateofCha

nge

Indonesia

Malaysia

The Philippines

Singapore

Thailand


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PENGANGGURAN DAN KEMISKINAN

Siapa yang termasuk penganggur? Indonesia: angkatan kerja bekerja kurang dari 1 jam

selama seminggu yang lalu

ILO: angkatan kerja yg bekerja kurang dari 15 jam

selama seminggu yg lalu

Angkatan kerja, Tenaga Kerja dan Bukan

Angkatan Kerja

Tugas: mencari data tingkat pengangguran

ASEAN dan G7

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Suyanto_ Macroeconomics Basic