Sustainable Futures: Transport Presentation

8/8/2019 Sustainable Futures: Transport Presentation

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Sustainable resource use in metropolitanCape Town: the passenger transport sector

Roger Behrens and Peter Wilkinson

21 January 2009

UNIVERSITY OF CAPE TOWNFaculty of Engineering & the Built EnvironmentCentre for Transport Studies

Strategy and Planning Directorate / Sustainability Institute Workshop


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Outline of discussion paper

1. Introduction

2. Cape Towns transport system: an overview

1. Transport infrastructure

2. Vehicle fleets and rolling stock

3. Modal split

4. Systemic duality and differential mobilities5. Aggregate travel pattersn

6. Institutional framework

3. Cape Towns transport system and the environment

1. Fuel consumption

2. Gaseous emissions

4. Implications for the sustainability of transport operations in Cape Town

5. Towards more sustainable resource use in the transport sector

6. Conclusion

Outline of presentation


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3. Cape Towns transport system and theenvironment

Fuel consumption:

What is transports share of energy consumption?

What are historical trends in oil production?

What are the predicted impacts of oil depletion?


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Annual energy use by user group and fuel type in Cape Town

(1,000 gigajoules)

Households, 21,505,14%

Industry / commerce,

57,123, 38%

Local authority,

2,100, 1%

Transport, 70,246,

47%

Annual transport system energy use by fuel type in Cape Town

(1,000 gigajoules)

Electricity, , 0%

Paraffin, , 0%

LPG, , 0%

Wood, , 0%Coal, , 0%

Heavy furnace oil, ,

0%

Jet fuel, 13,616,

19%

Diesel, 14,337, 20%

Petrol, 42,294, 61%

Sustainability Institute 2008

What is transports share of energy consumption?


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Petroleum = 97% of transport fuels

60% imported (85% from

Saudi Arabia + Iran)

30% Sasol (coal-to-liquids)

10% PetroSA (crude and gas-

to-liquids)

Hendler et al2007


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Global energy supply by fuel type (2004)

(million tons of oil equivalent)

Coal, 2,769, 25%

Gas, 2,310, 21%

Oil, 3,947, 36%

Combustible

renewables and

waste, 1,177, 10%

Hydro, 247, 2%

Nuclear, 718, 6% Geothermal/solar/win

d, 56, 0%

Oil provides 90% of

transport fuels

Wakeford 2007 (citing the International Energy Agency)


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What are historical trends in oil production?

Energy Watch Group 2007Hubbert 1956


8/24Energy Watch Group 2007

current global oil production = 85 Mb/d


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What are projected rates of oil production?

Wakeford 2007


10/24http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/11/13/225447/79


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WEO = World Energy Outlook (International Energy Agency, OECD)

Energy Watch Group 2007, Committee on Energy Futures and Air Pollution in Urban China and the United States 2007, IEA 2008

EIA = Energy Information Administration, USCERA = Cambridge Energy Research Associates

predicted peak = 125 Mb/d

recently reduced to 104-110 Mb/d


12/24Energy Watch Group 2007, Simmons 2008, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:OPEC-reserves-thumb.png#filehistory
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/d/d2/OPEC-reserves-thumb.png


13/24http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Oil_Prices_1861_2007.svg

Donovan et al2008

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Brent_Spot_monthly.svg

Stevens 2008

What are the predicted impacts of oil depletion?
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/Oil_Prices_1861_2007.svghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/Oil_Prices_1861_2007.svghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/Oil_Prices_1861_2007.svghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/Oil_Prices_1861_2007.svghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/Oil_Prices_1861_2007.svg


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3. Cape Towns transport system and theenvironment

Gaseous emissions:

What is transports share of emissions?

What are historical trends in emissions?

What are the predicted impacts of increased emissions?

Photo: Bruce Sutherland, City of Cape Town


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Estimated annual direct greenhouse gas emissions in Cape Town

(megaton CO2 equivalent)

Electricity, 8.6, 23%

Heating and

industrial, 3.7, 10%

Air and marinetransport, 12.6, 34%

Ground transport,

12.7, 33%

Hansen and Gasson 2008

What is transports share of emissions?

Stern 2006

Global greenhouse gas emissions by by sector (2000)

(gigatons of Co2 equivalent)

Power, 10.08, 24%

Land use, 7.56, 18%

Agriculture, 5.88,

14%

Industry, 5.88, 14%

Buildings, 3.36, 8%

Other energy related,

2.1, 5%

Waste, 1.26, 3%

Transport, 5.88,

14%


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What are historical trends in emissions?

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007

380 CO2 ppm
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/88/Mauna_Loa_Carbon_Dioxide.png


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What are the predicted impacts of increasedemissions?

Brohan et al2006

Stern 2006

+0.7 oCsince 1900


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4. Implications of the sustainability of transportoperations in Cape Town

Stabilisation and reversal of automobilisation: the acceleratingautomobilisation experienced over the last 50 years is likely to be graduallyhalted and then permanently reversed - a substantial number of choicepassengers will be unable to bear the growing cost of extensive car use, but asignificant level of private car (and perhaps motorcycle) usage is likely to remain

in the medium term, unless additional constraints are introduced and the levelsof service offered by the public transport systems improve significantly

Shifts to subsidised intra-city public passenger transport and deepenedreliance on walking: a shift from minibus-taxi services back to the cheaper,subsidised rail and bus services is likely where such services are available -

among the poorest sections of the captive market, reliance on NMT modes,particularly walking, is likely to deepen as public transport fares rise


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Inter-city freight shifts from road to rail systems: the likely effects of possiblefuture carbon pricing measures and associated energy price escalations would

be felt across both electrified and petroleum fuel-based transport systems inthe inter-city land freight transport sector, such price escalations, in conjunctionwith those induced by oil depletion, would probably lead to a shift from road toelectrified rail services, provided the reliability and competitiveness of the lattercan be improved

Decline in short-haul and discretionary air travel: the viability of air transportfor both freight and passenger movements particularly those of a discretionary(e.g. tourism) and short-haul nature is likely to decline fairly rapidly in the faceof aviation fuel price increases


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5. Towards more sustainable resource use in thetransport sector

Demand and road space management: introduction of travel demand androad space management measures, including the prioritising of available roadspace for public transport operations, instituting direct or proxy road use pricingfor private vehicles, encouraging the formation of lift clubs, firm-based travelplanning and other mobility management measures

Integrated public transport network improvements: establishment ofsystematically planned public transport networks which operate acrossintegrated road and rail-based modes to facilitate seamless, reliable, safe andaffordable transport - very substantial amounts of capital expenditure, as well aspublic funding for operating subsidies are likely to be required

Pedestrian and bicycle infrastructure improvements: significant investmentin the extension and upgrading of pedestrian and cycling infrastructure,systematically integrated with current and planned public transport facilities butalso offering opportunities for safe non-motorised travel within and between localareas


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Avoidance of counter-productive private transport improvements: As thecorollary of prioritising provision for public transport and NMT modes, investmentin infrastructure or facilities which primarily or exclusively serve the least

sustainable modes of transport particularly the use of private cars and airtravel should be discontinued, other than in cases justified on the basis ofcareful and comprehensive assessment of the full range of social andenvironmental costs that may be involved to realise any claimed benefits of suchinvestment

Build upon the existing rail- and road-based public transport assets: Theplanning and regulation of integrated public transport operations should buildupon the significant physical and human capital assets represented by keycomponents of the current public transport system local passenger railservices, in particular, but also the privately-operated and long-establishedscheduled bus services, as well as, the minibus-taxi industry. This implies themodification of any proposed clean sheet approaches to the necessary far-

reaching reform of the citys public transport system in such a way that presentcontextual realities are appropriately accommodated.


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Less travel intensive land use systems and localised economic systems:the formulation of land use plans which seek to promote, through appropriateland use management measures and careful planning of the installation of urban

infrastructure, less travel-intensive patterns of urban development includingpolycentric spatial structures at the city scale and the facilitation of transit

oriented mixed use and higher density development at the local scale


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5. Conclusion

We are rapidly approaching what may prove to be a critical tipping point -when liquid fuel prices are sustained above some threshold level which may beimminent, the travel behaviour of many people will unavoidably have to change,and with it all or most of their lifestyle choices

Another critical tipping point in the form of anthropogenic climate change mayalready have passed - acceptance of the precautionary principle would implythat we act now to contain and reduce the level of emissions in all sectors,including transport

Expectations that technological fixes will inevitably emerge which will obviate

the need for any radical change are, in our view, likely to prove self-deluding -efforts to suppress recognition of the urgency of the current situation, and todelay intervention to secure transition towards a more sustainable urbantransport system in the interests of continuing business as usual, we believe

can no longer be seen as tenable


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Sustainable Futures: Transport Presentation