SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT CRITERIA TO GUIDE ENERGY TECHNOLOGY

RESEARCH FOR CLIMATE MITIGATION

Sanford E. GainesGuest Professor, Department of LawBusiness and Social Sciences, Aarhus

University

The Energy — Climate Dilemma

• Increasing energy demand– electricity demand ≈200% of 2008 by 2035

• 80% of increase from developing countries– 1.4 billion people without electricity today

• Fossil fuels expected to remain major source

• Increasing greenhouse gas emissions– CO2 emissions in 2035 ≈33% higher than today

– 2010 energy-related CO2 emissions 30.6 Gt

IEA, World Energy Outlook 2010 ; press release 30.5.2011

Current energy mix is not sustainable

Source: IPCC, Special Report Renewable Energy Sources, Summary for Policy Makers (2011)

Renewable energy sources are the solution to the dilemma

Sustainable development:principles, framework, and criteria

• Sustainable development principles Our Common Future

• Millennium Ecosystem Assessment – framework for analysis

• Social-ecological resilience theory– Environmental management and governance

criteria for decision makers

Sustainable development principles• Broad concept of development and holistic thinking

Careful, integrated analysis of• environmental (ecological),• economic, and • social consequences

• Equity considerations– Intergenerational equity

• sustain the ability of future generations to meet their own needs

– Intra-generational equity • providing access for all to resources essential for a decent life and

personal and social development

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Framework

Social-ecological resilience theory

• Resilience: “the capacity [of complex adaptive systems] to

absorb shocks while maintaining function”

• “Resilience in social-ecological systems is the key to sustainable development. To sustain development in a world in transformation, policy must enhance resilience and sustain social ecological systems in the face of surprise, unpredictability and complexity.”

• Flexibility in social systems and institutions• Adaptability and promotion of learning

• Social structures that do not limit options• Openness of institutions – participation

• Significance of local decision making• Effectiveness of multilevel governance

• Overall: ”…strengthening the ability to deal with uncertainties and surprises, rather than attempting to control nature, maintain once and for all a given social or ecological situation or counter any change.”– From Jonas Ebbesson, The rule of law in governance of complex

social-ecological changes (2010)

Salient Social Elements in Resilience Theory

• Adaptive governance– ”Transformability” into improved systems– Emphasis on learning

• innovation• experimentation

• Multilevel governance (polycentricity)– Climate change is a global challenge requiring a reponse at the global scale—

as part of a `polycentric approach´ (Elinor Ostrom 2009)– ”An adaptive governance framework relies critically on the collaboration of a

diverse set of stakeholders operating at different social and ecological scales in multi-level institutions and organizations.” (C. Folke 2006)

– No or very little top-down direction• ”dynamic efficiency is frequently … enhanced” by governance at multiple levels with

some degree of autonomy.”• ”Clumsy” approaches -- ”messy and non-hierarchical in structure”

• Openness– Many different groups and organizations can participate

Governance

• Background settings– economic development – demography – government policy, etc.

• Major systems (and their interactions and outcomes): • Resources • Resource units • Governance • Users

– Second-level variables under each system• E.g, for governance: government orgs.; NGOs; networks; property rights;

constitutional rules; monitoring and sanctioning

• ”…long-term sustainability depends on rules matching the attributes of the resource system, resource units, and users.”

Elinor Ostrom, Science, 24.7.09

Analyzing sustainability of social-ecological systems

Energy system elements in terms of sustainability-resilience criteria

• Access to low-emitting energy at manageable cost for developing countries– Intragenerational equity– Economic, social, environmental (health) benefits– Enhanced social-ecological resilience

• Diverse and decentralized energy sources– Avoid inflexibility and governance problems with

centralized systems– Enable participation, multilevel governance– Adaptable, resilient

Energy innovation and sustainability/resilience

• Decentralized/distributed energy systems– Simple systems for diverse cultures, environments– Matching attributes of resource system (networks),

ressource units (generation) and users • Sustainability of materials, production– Holistic appraisal of technology potential, trade-offs

• High-tech, centralized systems (e.g., fusion) may be sustainable for large-scale energy supply for developed countries and large urban areas

Financing and governance for massive research and development

• Multilevel governance – Financing from diverse sources• international• national government• private sector

– Governance (direction and oversight)• Participation of all stakeholders• Autonomy of researchers, but international

coordination of knowledge, development

Concluding Thought

The dogmas of the quiet past are inadequate to the stormy present. The occasion is piled high with difficulty, and we must rise with the occasion. As our case is new, so we must think anew, and act anew. We must disenthrall ourselves, and then we shall save our country.

U.S. President Abraham Lincoln, second annual message to Congress, 1 Dec. 1862.