Sustainability:Sustainability:On scheduleOn schedule

Kauai SustainabilityKauai SustainabilityThe ProblemsThe Problems

PerspectivePerspectiveDepletion – ReplacementDepletion – Replacement

Island EconomyIsland EconomyAgricultureAgriculture

PerspectivePerspective

We ignore historyWe ignore history We cannot comprehend the futureWe cannot comprehend the future We believe in the status quo or its We believe in the status quo or its

improvementimprovement We shoot at the target during planningWe shoot at the target during planning

Depletion – ReplacementDepletion – Replacement

Fossil fuels are quickly becoming very Fossil fuels are quickly becoming very expensive and less available as they are expensive and less available as they are depleteddepleted

We will not be able to replace them with We will not be able to replace them with other fuels and maintain current productionother fuels and maintain current production

EROEIEROEI

Wood

Cheap Oil

Everything Else

Cheap Coal

Expensive Oil

LNGExpensive Coal

EROEI ca 5:1

*uranium*

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Island EconomyIsland Economy

We no longer produce much, either for We no longer produce much, either for ourselves or othersourselves or others

We are merely a destination, either for We are merely a destination, either for visitors or real estate investmentvisitors or real estate investment

As “free energy” disappears people will stop As “free energy” disappears people will stop coming in droves, and people will stop coming in droves, and people will stop sending money in boxessending money in boxes

Kauai`s Economy

1 million visitors spending $1 billion dollars every year

Expect this to change drastically

July 3, 2005 “No airline can make money at $50 crude oil prices; now were up to $60,” Southwest Airlines chief Gary Kelly groused last week to Bloomberg News. And his carrier is one of the few making money.

Indeed, most experts agree that oil at $50 to $60 a barrel raises elemental questions about how airlines will survive.

AgricultureAgriculture

A return to agrarian society?A return to agrarian society? Arguably, we have some of the worst Arguably, we have some of the worst

agricultural soils in the worldagricultural soils in the world Naturally, grasses and trees are the only Naturally, grasses and trees are the only

groups of plants that will grow well groups of plants that will grow well (sustainably)(sustainably)

We cannot eat much of eitherWe cannot eat much of either

80% of Brazilian sugar cane is still harvested by hand

25% of US oil consumption goes to agriculture (NOT including packaging, refrigeration, and trucking)

“Ag Lands” and Planning

80% of the food we eat on Kauai is brought in from elsewhere.