Sustainability impact assessments of policy changes –

recent development

of analytical modeling in Europe

Marcus Lindner, Risto Päivinen, Hans Verkerk, 

Taru Palosuo, Tommi Suominen

European Forest Institute, Joensuu

Introduction –

Sustainability  Assessments

• Sustainable yield of forest resources (Hans Carl von Carlowitz; 1713)

• Sustainable world system (Dennis L. Meadows; 1972: The Limits of 

Growth)

• Sustainable development (Brundtland Report 1987)

• Environmental, social, and economic pillars of sustainability 

(cf. EU sustainable development strategy, Gothenburg 2001 and EU

Council decision 2006)

2008: Sustainable resource use AND sectoral value chains

The sustainability concept evolved over the centuries

What are the effects of policy decision on social,  economic and environmental sustainability?

Two large European Integrated [research] Projects study this 

question with analytical tools

• SENSOR develops science‐based forecasting Sustainability 

Impact Assessment Tools (SIAT). They allow the assessment of 

land use policy effects on sustainable development at 

regional scale for Europe. 

Forestry is covered as one of six sectoral land uses

• EFORWOOD develops a Tool for the Sustainability Impact 

Assessment (ToSIA) of Forestry‐Wood Chains. 

The complete forest value chains are covered, including forest resource management, forest‐industry interactions, consumption and end‐of‐life of wood based products

SENSOR: Sustainability Impact  Assessment of multifunctional land use 

www.sensor-ip.org409/06/2008 www.sensor-ip.eu

Provision of work

Land based

production

Infra- structure

Abiotic resources

Biotic resources

Ecosystem processed

Human health &

recreation

Cultural & aesthetic

values

Industry &

services

Agriculture ForestryNature

ConservationTransport

Infrastructure Energy Tourism

Impact assessment

Social Economic Environment509/06/2008 www.sensor-ip.eu

Indicators impacts (~40)

Impacts are calculated for environmental, social and economical dimensions of

sustainability

Land use policy scenario

Land-use allocation model

(CLUE-s)Macro-

economical model

(NEMESIS)

Forest sector model

(EFISCEN)

Policy variableIn

dica

tor v

alue

Dead wood

Forest fire risk

Carbon sequestration

Agricultural model (CAPRI)

SENSOR Model Framework

Jansson et al. 2008

EFISCEN modelling framework

Age-class

Vol

ume-

clas

s

Wood demand

Manage- ment

strategy

Forest area

change

09/06/2008 7

Deadwood Carbon stock Fellings and increment

Biomass revenue

Workforce

Include social and economical indicators in EFISCEN

Indicator selection criteria

– Relevant indicators (e.g. MCPFE)

– Compatible with EFISCEN structure

Selected indicators:

Further work on forest indicators

09/06/2008 8

09/06/2008 9

Normalised indicator impacts in 2030

Baseline (2005) = 1Nordic

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5Deadwood

Carbon

Resource utilisationBiomass revenues

Workforce

Baseline Biodiversity Bio-energy

Central and Alpic

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5Deadwood

Carbon

Resource utilisationBiomass revenues

Workforce

Baseline Biodiversity Bio-energy

Example of indicator impacts

The EU Integrated Project

EFORWOODTools for Sustainability Impact Assessment of the Forestry-Wood Chain

The EU Integrated Project

EFORWOODTools for Sustainability Impact Assessment of the Forestry-Wood Chain

Main project objective is to develop a Tool for the Sustainability Impact Assessment (ToSIA) of Forestry-Wood Chains (FWC)

ToSIA approach to Sustainability Impact  Assessment of Forest‐Wood Chains

ToSIA approach to Sustainability Impact  Assessment of Forest‐Wood Chains

ToSIA measures volume flows and 

sustainability indicators

Based on:- already existing European & international sustainability

indicator Sets EU-SIAGuidelines

32 topics -- --

Eurostat – SDI 15 level 1- indicators

47 level 2- indicators

99 level 3 – indicators

MCPFE --- --- 35 indicators

CSD 15 themes 40 sub-themes 60 indicators

PAIS 5 themes 16 issues 57 indicators

Indicator development (Ewald Rametsteiner et al.)

Sustainability Indicators

Economic Environmental Social

Gross value added 

Production costs

Resource / material 

use

Total production

Investment and 

research & 

development

Energy generation and use

Greenhouse gas emissions and carbon stocks

Transport distance and freight

Water use

Soil, water and air pollution

Generation of waste

Forest biodiversity

Forest resources

Employment 

Wages and salaries

Occupational safety 

and health

Education and 

Training

14.1. Greenhouse gas emissions

14.2. Carbon storage 14.3. Greenhouse gas

balance 17.1. Area of forest and other wooded land 17.2. Growing stock 17.3. Balance of net increment and annual

fellings

ToSIA approach to Sustainability Impact  Assessment of Forest‐Wood Chains

Sustainability indicators are linked to 

all production processes

= a production process in a selected FWC = production processes in optional FWCs

Forest Resources ManagementForest Resources Management

A production processStages Forest to Industry InteractionsForest to Industry Interactions

Industrial Processing and Manufacturing Industrial Processing and Manufacturing

Industry to consumer interactionsIndustry to consumer interactions

Options

Re- c y cl in gEn d-of -l if e

The analytical  framework

The analytical  framework

FWC is a chain of processes

M2M2

A production processStages M3M3

M4M4

M5M5

Re- cyclingEnd-of-

life

Sustainability Indicator Calculation1.

Take indicator value per unit of reference flow

2.

Multiply with material flow through a process

3.

= sustainability indicator value for the process 

0,2 person hours/ m³/sawing 

A x 10 m³ = 2 person hours

0,4 person hours/ m³/sawing 

B x 10 m³

= 4 person hours

Aggregation of indicator results

• Identify same indicator for different processes in calculated chains

• Sum up indicators of the same ID in a calculated chain

Employment (ID 003895)

TOTAL

3411321

M2M2

A production processStages M3M3

M4M4

M5M5

Re - c y cli ngEnd-of -

li fe

42.5 person hours

50 person hours

Impact of changing material flow A to material flow B on social indicator ’employment’ =

Employment hours B – employment hours A =

50 – 42.5 = + 7.5

Sustainability ImpactImpact

Assessment

How to compare changes in  different indicator values?

If the impact on employment is + 7,5 h but at the same 

time waste generation increases +2%, 

is the total impact positive or negative?

Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA)

compares apples and oranges

Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA)

Converts apples and oranges into €

Sustainability Impact Evaluation

Software for Weighting of indicators

Software for Ranking of alternatives

1) Production of pellets – used in single family homes

Source: Vapo

Source: Vapo

Source: Vapo

Source: Vapo

2) Chipping of biomass – used in single family home via district heating

Jouko Parviainen, Josek Oy Source:Vapo

ToSIA application: comparing two different bio‐ energy supply chains for heating a private household

Results of the comparison

Based on: one reference year (2007)a certain land area (1803 ha)

P Chain P&C Chain increase in %

318 737 595 078 875 604 318 1 6491 609 194

0,99 2,18 12063 126 1010 5 382 n.a.

9.1 transport distance 272 416 363 846 349.2 freight transported 1 679 2 822 6810.1 energy use 1 942 126 2 348 295 2110.2 heat generation 6 404 935 20 725 555 224

7. Greenhouse Gas Emissions

9. Transport

10. Energy

8. Maintenance of soil quality

Indicator

1. Production costs3. Total heat consumption4. Employment

Unit

euro

MJ

person a

tons CO2 eqv.

kg

tkm

tons

MJ

MJ

a)

effects of additional extraction of forest biomass on 

sustainability 

Indicator P & C Chain P ChainGHG bal.EmploymentEnergy bal.CostsSoil maint.

ToSIA results

a) Pellet and Chips chain b) Pellet chain

ToSIA perspectives: How you look at things makes a lot of 

difference!

Different ToSIA perspectives at  sustainability impact assessment

I will become a nice table...

...in my earlier lives I had other carreers

I used to live in Northern Sweden...

We grew up only 35 km from here...

I will be readin downtown London!

”forest-defined” ”product-defined” ”industry-defined”

Conclusions on Tool for Sustainability  Impact Assessment (ToSIA)

• Flexible tool - User can select : system boundaries, indicators, weights ...

• Quality of assessment depends on quality of data

• Quantitative approach to sustainability assessment

• Trade-offs between different aspects of sustainability

More Conclusions ...

• Many other potential applications

• Transparent treatment of stakeholder preferences

• Designed for the demands of policy makers

Thank you!