Susan Mazer, PhD, Liz Matthews, PhD, and Brian Haggerty, M.S. · 2011-10-04 · Heracleum maximum Mimulus guttatus Penstemon newberryi Pinus contorta Pinus ponderosa 38 Populus tremuloides

Using phenology to detect plant

responses to climate and

climate change

Susan Mazer, PhD, Liz Matthews, PhD, and Brian Haggerty, M.S.

1

• California Phenology Project (CPP)

– Lassen Volcanic NP and the Mountain bioregion

• Workshop logistics

• Workshop agenda and goals

• CPP LAVO visit

– agenda and goals

• Introductions

– name, title, organization

Welcome!

2

Workshop outline

3

hands-on practice, outside!!

• Phenology, climate, and climate change

• Case studies


• National Phenology Network (NPN)

• Buds….and flowers….and fruits- oh my! plant responses to spring

• NPN and Nature’s Notebook

• CPP at LAVO

Spring wildflowers

Foliage color change

Migration patterns

4

Phenology is the science of the seasons

Other examples?

HAZARDS CULTURE

Invasions

Allergies

HEALTH

Pests & Diseases

Wildfires

Flu season

Agriculture

Phenology is the science of the seasons

Festivals

Ecotourism

Timing and abundance

are important

Deciduous forest time-lapse movie

Plants & animals are very dynamic over the seasons

Vegetation

(Leaves)

Reproduction

(Flowers, Fruits)

Leaves provide energy to the plant for reproduction & growth

Canopy shades the understory – other plants & animals, grazing, fires

Herbivores eat leaves, Birds nest in the canopy

Carbon sequestration…

Vegetative phenology

Flowering time-lapse movie

Plants & animals are very dynamic over the seasons

Vegetation

(Leaves)

Reproduction

(Flowers, Fruits)

Flowering phenology Repeated photos

Reproductive success for plants Nectar & pollen for pollinators Fruits & seeds for animals – including agricultural crops

Phenological patterns are important

… and sensitive to climate

… and sensitive to climate change.

Climate change: global and continental patterns

11

National Arbor Day Foundation

1990

2006

Zone #

Climate change: U.S. Winter hardiness maps

12

Temperature

Time of Year

Warmer winter

Earlier spring

Persistent summer

Phenological patterns are sensitive to climate

…and to climate change.

Growing season length

Phenology

“Indicators” of

climate change US E.P.A. (2010)

Workshop outline

14


• Case studies





• CPP at LAVO

• The first phenological monitoring effort in the U.S.

• 1950’s - 1990’s: ~3500 citizen scientists monitored lilac plants in backyards and gardens

• Each year, data postcards sent to Professor Joe Caprio at Montana State Univ.

• First bloom dates of these lilacs have been used:

• To show the effects of elevation and latitude on the onset of spring

• To generate predictive maps for agriculture best practices

• To assess climate change throughout the U.S.

Common Lilac Monitoring Nationwide

Common Lilac Monitoring Nationwide

Date of first flower

Date of first leaf

Phenology for one Lilac individual

Phenology is an indicator of environmental change

17

“fingerprint of climate change”

First bloom of Common Lilac in

California

1.8 days earlier per decade

Schwartz and Caprio 2003

“fingerprint of climate change”

2005 leaf-out at the Lowell Cemetery in Massachusetts occurred much earlier

when compared to 1868

Photographs & herbarium specimens as tools to

detect the biological effects of climate

19 Miller-Rushing et al. 2006 AJB

Blue Hill Meteorological Observatory in Milton, Massachusetts. The horizontal

line represents the long-term mean February–May temperature (4.48C)

Photographs & herbarium specimens as tools to

detect the biological impacts of climate

Miller-Rushing et al. 2006 AJB 20

• Primary productivity

• Trophic relationships

• Species movements

• Population demographics

• Resource management

• Human activities

Photo David Inouye

Phenology – Timing is Everything!

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Phenological Shifts: So What?

Parmesan 2007. Global Change Biology.

Rate of phenological response varies among plants and animals

For reference, Lilac example from California would be placed here (1.8 days/decade)

English oak

Winter moth

Pied flycatcher

Both et al. 2006 Nature

Leafing out earlier

Migrating the same time each year

Emerging earlier

The earlier winter moths emerge, the steeper the decline in bird population size. Up to 90% population decline

“Phenological mismatches” cause population crashes

23

Ozgul et al. 2010

Shifts in phenology result in changes in body mass and population dynamics

(a) time of weaning

(b) mean mass on August 1st

(c) total abundance at each

age class

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Phenological patterns are sensitive to climate…and to climate change.

• Primary productivity

• Trophic relationships

• Species movements

• Population demographics

• Resource management

• Human activities

Workshop outline

26


• Case studies





• CPP at LAVO

California Phenology Project

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Establish a phenology

monitoring network

across California

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establish a phenology monitoring

network across California

monitor across a large geographic

area and along key environmental

gradients

allow the CPP to address

key scientific questions

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• identify key scientific questions

• facilitate the selection of focal species for three

bioregions (desert, coastal, mountains)

• identify historical datasets

• develop phenophase descriptions

• set-up monitoring infrastructure in 6 pilot parks

in spring & summer 2011

• develop a variety of approaches for

ongoing, sustainable long-term phenology

monitoring programs

• link-in with other monitoring efforts at each

park

• identify current outreach and education

programs & develop new programs that can

incorporate phenology

• develop materials to support these efforts


31


• facilitate the selection of focal species for three

bioregions (desert, coastal, mountains)







monitoring programs


park





• enable forecasts of biological responses to climate change

• inform land management decisions

• use historical data: e.g. herbaria, journals, archives

Herbarium sheets: species with the most long-term collection records and

species with most wide-spread geographic range (elevation, latitude)

Informal phenological records: museum or botanical garden archives

Individual professional or amateur journals

Identification of specific, tractable questions that:


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CPP scientific questions

• What are the responses of iconic, widespread species? • Which taxa or functional groups are most sensitive to

climate change? • Are relationships between plant and animal mutualists

disrupted by climate change? • Do communities or habitats differ in their general

responses to climate change?

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• How do species behave at their range margins or in ecotones?

• How do species respond to the presence of invasive species?

• How do species respond to abiotic disturbance (fire, flood, etc.)?

• What are the earliest indicators of spring?

34


See full report of scientific advisory meeting (with scientific questions) at CPP website:

www.usanpn.org/cpp

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36


• facilitate the selection of focal species for

three bioregions (desert, coastal, mountains)







monitoring programs


park





CPP species selection criteria

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• dominant species

• widely distributed taxa

• indicator species

• species of local ecological or management concern

• ease of identification

• accessibility for monitoring across an abiotic or biotic

gradient

• proximity to other monitoring efforts

• species for which there are legacy data to which current

phenological behavior can be compared

• benchmark species

• ability to engage Citizen Scientists

• known and accessible locations of multiple individuals in

park/unit

CPP taxa: Mountain bioregion/LAVO

Arctostaphylos patula Ceanothus cordulatus Cornus nuttallii Epilobium canum Heracleum maximum Mimulus guttatus Penstemon newberryi Pinus contorta Pinus ponderosa

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Populus tremuloides Prunus emarginata Quercus kelloggii Sambucus nigra ssp. cerulea

(=S. mexicana)

Taraxacum officinale Wyethia mollis

Possible additions: Lupinus obtusilobus, Monardella odoratissima, others?


39


• facilitate the selection of focal species for

three bioregions (desert, coastal, mountains)



• set-up monitoring infrastructure in 6 pilot

parks in spring & summer 2011


ongoing, sustainable long-term

phenology monitoring programs

• link-in with other monitoring efforts at

each park





40

CPP: monitoring infrastructure

Discuss this afternoon! • Where?

• When?

• Who?

• How?

JOTR

REDW

GOGA



• facilitate the selection of focal species

for three bioregions (desert, coastal,

mountains)



• set-up monitoring infrastructure in 6 pilot

parks in spring & summer 2011

• identify current outreach and

education programs & develop new

programs that can incorporate

phenology

• develop materials to support

these efforts 41

CPP outreach and education

42

Developing partnerships with outdoor schools, local schools

(K-12), volunteer organizations, adult education programs,

and more….your ideas here!

• Website coming soon

– Landing page on NPN site (www.usanpn.org/cpp)

• Contact information on handouts

43


http://www.usanpn.org/cpp

Workshop outline

44


• Case studies





• CPP at SEKI

Key Goal To detect and to understand how plants, animals, and landscapes respond to environmental variation and to

climate change

NPN Partners

National Phenology Network in a nutshell

• A consortium of scientists, educators, and the public

• Agencies, NGOs, academia

• A national biological science and monitoring platform

• Standard protocols for plants, animals, & landscapes

• A national phenological data management system

• Facilitate scaling from 'leaf to globe'

• Integrate with other monitoring networks

• Education and training 47

Go to www.usanpn.org

∙ 300+ plant species

∙ 160+ animal species

∙ Core protocols

a project of the USA-NPN

48

National Phenology Network: Nature’s Notebook

Standard protocols for plants, animals, and landscapes

Protocols for different

plant life forms:

• Evergreens

• Cacti

• Conifers

• Deciduous

• Forbs

• Grasses

• Sedges 49

Liz Matthews


Eschscholzia californica

CA poppy

50

Liz Matthews


51


Sambucus nigra

Blue elderberry

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Sambucus nigra

Blue elderberry


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Sambucus nigra

Blue elderberry

Workshop outline

55


• Case studies





• CPP at LAVO

Vegetative structures

• Leaves and stems

Reproductive structures

• Flower buds, flowers, fruits & seeds

Pollination Fertilization Seeds & Fruits develop

Basic Botany Review

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Basic Botany Review

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Basic Botany Review

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Buds may be found in several locations relative to leaves and

stems. Generally, leaves ALWAYS have a bud in their axil.

Floral bud

Mixed bud

Axillary bud

Lateral bud

Terminal bud

Accessory bud

Basic Botany Review

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Vegetative structures: buds & leaves

Lilac

White ash

White pine

60

Reproductive structures: flower buds, flowers, fruits & seeds

The elegant Clarkia: Clarkia unguiculata 61

male

female

Pollination & fertilization

Reproductive structures: flower buds, flowers, fruits & seeds

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eggplant

orange

pear

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Always be on the lookout for buds, flowers, and fruits!

Megan van den Bergh. UCSB Phenology Stewardship Program

The temporal progression of flower bud, flower and fruit production

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Let’s go observe!!

CPP taxa: Mountain bioregion

• 22 candidate taxa identified for the Mountain bioregion

– Approximately 15 candidates for LAVO

– Will be narrowed down to approximately 4 taxa over the next year

• Taxa cover a range of life-forms (and therefore Nature’s Notebook datasheets), plant families, habitat associations, and more!

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Arctostaphylos patula Greenleaf manzanita

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Ceanothus cordulatus Mountain whitethorn, Snow Bush

Cornus nuttallii Pacific dogwood

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Epilobium canum California fuchsia; hummingbird trumpet

Heracleum maximum Common cowparsnip

= H. lanatum Br. Alfred Brousseau, Saint Mary's College

Mimulus guttatus Common yellow monkeyflower

Eugene Zelenko Eugene Zelenko

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Penstemon newberryi Mountain Pride

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Pinus contorta Lodgepole pine

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Pinus ponderosa Ponderosa Pine

Populus tremuloides Quaking aspen

Prunus emarginata Bitter cherry

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Quercus kelloggii California black oak

Sambucus nigra ssp. cerulea Blue elderberry

= S. mexicana

Taraxacum officinale Common dandelion

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Wyethia mollis Wooly mule ears

CPP taxa: Mountain bioregion/LAVO

Arctostaphylos patula Ceanothus cordulatus Cornus nuttallii Epilobium canum Heracleum maximum Mimulus guttatus Penstemon newberryi Pinus contorta Pinus ponderosa

82

Populus tremuloides Prunus emarginata Quercus kelloggii Sambucus nigra ssp. cerulea

(=S. mexicana)

Taraxacum officinale Wyethia mollis

Possible additions: Lupinus obtusilobus, Monardella odoratissima, others?

83

CPP taxa tagged at each park

SAMO: Quercus agrifolia* Quercus lobata Adenostoma fasciculatum* Eriogonum fasciculatum Sambucus nigra ssp. cerulea Baccharis pilularis* (future)

JOTR: Larrea tridentata Coleogyne ramosissima Yucca brevifolia Yucca schidgera Prosopis glandulosa

GOGA: Quercus agrifolia* Baccharis pilularis* Eschscholzia californica Mimulus aurantiacus* Heracleum lanatum

REDW: Baccharis pilularis* Trillium ovatum Rhododendron macrophyllum Lathyrus littoralis

• REMEMBER: observing any phenophase and marking either Y or N is important

– observing that a phenophase IS occurring or that a phenophase IS NOT occurring allows us to look at onset, duration, and end of a phenophase

• GOAL– monitor each plant, at minimum, twice weekly!!

• MISSING PHENOPHASE PHOTOS- help us fill the gaps!

– contribute to our collection of phenophase photos on our upcoming website (late summer 2011)

CPP taxa

84

Workshop outline

85


• Case studies





• CPP at LAVO

NPN and Nature’s Notebook

Where did these protocols and datasheets come

from? What to do with the data after they are

collected??

http://www.usanpn.org/

86



NPN: Nature’s Notebook

LAVO trail chosen for CPP monitoring

87



sites, where CPP taxa occur, are chosen along

the trail

1

2

3

4

5

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the trail

individuals of each species are chosen and

labeled

label: CPP- LAVO- trailname#- GESP#

1

2

3

4

5

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the trail


labeled

label: CPP- LAVO- TRAI#- GESP#

example: CPP- LAVO- TRAI4- PICO1

1

2

3

4

5

3

2 1

90


1

2

3

4

5

3

2 1

1

3

2

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the trail


labeled



example2: CPP- LAVO- TRAI4- ARPA1


1

2

3

4

5

3

2 1

1

3

2

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the trail


labeled





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JOTR monitoring sites–

roadside transect

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JOTR monitoring sites–

demo at Visitor Center

Pinus contorta

PICO1 CPP- LAVO-TRAI4 2011

LAVO Visitor


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Larrea tridentata Larrea1

CPP- trail1- site4 2011

Joshua Tree Visitor


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4- 11- 11 4- 14 - 11

3 - 10

> 10

< 3

< 3

Event

Activity Reproduction Development

Day of year

Status & Abundance

Status

Phenology Monitoring Methods

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Event

Day of year

Y

Status NNNN??NNNYNNNYYYYYNN

Event vs. Status Monitoring

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Phenology Monitoring Methods

Budburst- event monitoring

• requires daily monitoring leading up to

phenophase events

• great for backyards and gardens,

where daily monitoring is easy!

•only allows one individual plant per

species per site– i.e., replication is

difficult

•does not allow monitoring of animals

NPN- status monitoring

• monitoring frequency is very flexible

• shoot for twice weekly monitoring

for CPP purposes

• allows for sufficient replication to

address scientific questions (multiple

individuals per site)

• allows for plant and/or animal

monitoring

• customizable support; NPN- NCO can

create new tools for each partnership

• recently added abundance monitoring

Workshop outline

100


• Case studies





• CPP at LAVO

CPP at LAVO

101

• Where to monitor?? How to monitor? Who will monitor?

• Remember: monitoring frequency should be, at minimum, twice weekly

• How to integrate with current interpretation and education programs at LAVO?

• Tools CPP can develop and provide for LAVO

• Other topics…

CPP at LAVO

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• What scientific questions are important for LAVO?

• What are the big resource management issues at LAVO? How can phenological monitoring inform these issues?

• Coordination with other monitoring programs

• Co-location; where are other monitoring sites?

• Biological and environmental

CPP at LAVO

103

• Tuesday and Wednesday-- scouting and trail/location/site set-up

• Two more visits:

• Fall/Winter 2011

• Spring/Summer 2012

Questions?

104

Documents

Susan Mazer, PhD, Liz Matthews, PhD, and Brian Haggerty, M.S. · 2011-10-04 · Heracleum maximum Mimulus guttatus Penstemon newberryi Pinus contorta Pinus ponderosa 38 Populus tremuloides