survey of public opinion in Crimea

1

International Republican Institute

Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization

Rating Group Ukraine

with funding from the

United States Agency for International Development

Public Opinion Survey Residents of the

Autonomous Republic of Crimea

May 16 – 30, 2013

http://www.usaid.gov/

http://www.iri.org/

2

Methodology

The survey was conducted by the Baltic Surveys/Gallup on behalf of the International Republican Institute.

The fieldwork was carried out by Rating Group Ukraine. The fieldwork was done during May 16–30, 2013,

through face-to-face in-home interviews with the respondents. The survey was conducted in the Autonomous

Republic of Crimea, including the capital and all major regional centers and the city of Sevastopol.

The sample consisted of 1,200 permanent Crimea residents older than the age of 18 and eligible to vote and is representative of the general population by age, gender, education and religion.

The sample design was a multi-stage random sample:

-Stage one: Crimea is divided into official administrative regions. All regions of Crimea were surveyed.

-Stage two: Settlements were selected - towns and villages. Towns were divided into subtypes according to the size of population (large, medium, small). There were no more than 10-12 interviews in each village. This stage, among others, had the following tasks: to represent the structure of urban settlements (based on the types of towns) and to represent each of the regions. Towns were selected randomly. The settlement selection stage was implemented on the basis of the town's population. Villages were selected randomly.

- Stage three: primary sampling units were described. The households were selected using the random route method. The closest birthday rule was used for selection of the respondent.

The response rate was 61 percent.

The margin of error does not exceed plus or minus 2.8 percent.

Some charts may not round to 100 percent due to rounding.

IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine CRIMEA RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013

3

MOOD OF THE

AUTONOMOUS REPUBLIC

OF CRIMEA


4

Generally speaking, do you think that things in Ukraine are going in the right direction or wrong

direction?

11

80

62

62

14

26

14

6

24

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Nov 2009

Oct 2011

May 2013

Right direction Wrong direction DK/NA


5

Generally speaking, do you think that things in Crimea are going in the right direction or wrong

direction?

61 1722

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

May 2013

Right direction Wrong direction DK/NA


6

Over the last 12 months, how has the financial situation of your

household changed?

1

1

4

3

15

23

39

52

30

39

21

41

15

9

1

3

2

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Nov 2009

Oct 2011

May 2013

Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot DK/NA


7

In the next 12 months, how do you expect the economic situation in

Crimea to change?

1

1

8

5

16

29

31

46

24

30

15

27

11

5

11

23

18

0

0 20 40 60 80 100

Nov 2009

Oct 2011

May 2013

Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot DK/NA


% % % % % %

8

Regardless of your passport, what do you consider yourself?

28

24

14

15

45

40 115

8

5

2 3

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Oct 2011

May 2013

Crimean Ukrainian Russian Crimean-Tatar Other DK/NA


% % % % % % % % % % %

9

24

19

29

42

15

66

3

8

40

10

63

19

15

100

5

5

4

29

1

1

2

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

ALL

RESPONDENTS

ETHNICITY

Ukrainian

Russian

Crimean Tatar

Other

Crimean Ukrainian Russian Crimean-Tatar Other DK/NA

24

19

10

37

16

36

23

12

15

11

21

14

16

13

14

18

40

55

56

36

31

31

50

41

15

3

5

10

33

17

5

23

5

11

7

2

3

3

7

5

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

ALL RESPONDENTS

TYPE OF SETTLEMENT

Sevastopol

Simferopol

Other town

Rural area

REGIONS

East

South

West

Regardless of your passport, what do you consider yourself?


10

ISSUES


11

Please tell me, which three of the following issues are the most important for

Crimea?

68

50

37

37

36

12

11

8

8

5

5

5

4

4

4

2

2

Unemployment

Control over price growth

Low industry production

Corruption within the state bodies

Social protection for poor

Relations with Russia

Government incompetence

Delay in salary/pension payments

Political instability

Crime

Rights to land ownership

Lack/possibility of cutting off gas, electricity, water

Hryvnia devaluation

Russian language status

Interethnic relations

Russian Black Sea Navy presence

Other


12

Please tell me, which three of the following issues are the most important for

you personally?

65

59

38

21

18

16

12

8

7

7

6

6

6

6

2

2

10

1

Unemployment

Control over price growth

Social protection for poor

Corruption within the state bodies

Delay in salary/pension payments

Low industry production

Lack/possibility of cutting off gas, electricity, water

Crime



Political instability

Government incompetence

Hryvnia devaluation

Russian language status

Russian Black Sea Navy presence


Other

DK/NA


13

Do you think it is acceptable or not if some groups of people use the following

methods of protests? How acceptable is each of these forms?

67

55

50

42

23

21

23

15

27

39

43

48

69

71

68

77

6

6

7

10

8

9

9

8

Collecting signatures for

petition, letter

Legal demonstrations

Legal strikes

Boycott

Demonstrations without

permission

Strikes without permission

Blocking of major roads

Occupation of buildings or

enterprises

Acceptable Not acceptable DK/NA


14

If Ukraine was able to enter only one international economic union, which entity

should it be with?

17 53 8 22

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

May 2013

The European Union Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan Other DK/NA

% % % % % % % % % % %


15

How would you evaluate your attitude to the following entities?

68

14

13

10

6

26

70

61

77

68

5

15

23

12

24

1

1

3

1

2

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Russia

European Union

Turkey

Poland

USA

Warm Neutral Cold DK/NA


16

How would you evaluate current relations between Ukraine and Russia?

4

6

15

9

23

16

34

26

12

22

5

12 1

6

8

0 20 40 60 80 100

May 2013

Oct 2011

Friendly Good neighbor Quite warm Neutral Cold Tense Hostile DK/NA

% % % % % %


17

In your opinion, what should the status of Crimea be?

49

53

4

12

6

2

33

23

8

10

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Oct 2011

May 2013

Autonomy in Ukraine (as today) Crimean Tatar autonomy within Ukraine

Common oblast of Ukraine Crimea should be separated and given to Russia

DK/NA

17

% % % % % % % % % % %


18

Land ownership is a very important issue in Crimea. Many Crimean

Tartars believe they should be allocated land by the government to

compensate for the deportation. Do you agree or disagree with this opinion?

10

6

13

8

7

6

11

18

28

56

59

43

14

9

10

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Nov 2009

Oct 2011

May 2013

Stronlgy agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree DK/NA

18 IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine CRIMEA RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013

19

Do you believe tension between Crimean Tatars and non-Tatar Crimean

residents has increased or decreased during the last 12 months?

6

5

9

8

44

40

29

35

12

12

0 20 40 60 80 100

Oct 2011

May 2013

Has increased Has decreased No changes There is no tension DK/NA

19

% % % % % %


20

How would you evaluate the level of Ukraine’s involvement into solution of

the Crimean Tatars’ problems?

Does not deal at all

13%

Fully sufficient

14%

DK/NA

29%

Rather insufficient

7%

Rather sufficient

37%


21

In your opinion, are ethnic Crimeans sufficiently represented in the Crimean

authority bodies?

Definitely yes

28%

Definitely no

2%

DK/NA

26%

Rather no

12%

Rather yes

32%


22

Are you going to take part in the elections of Kurultai* delegates of the

Crimean Tatar people?

Crimean Tatars, n=184

DK/NA

38%

Definitely no

2%

Definitely yes

28%

Rather no

3%

Rather yes

29%


*The Kurultai is a 250-person elected body that is responsible for serving as the elected advocacy body for the Crimean Tatar people.

23

In your opinion, has your nationality influenced your employment

prospects?


DK/NA

42%

Has influenced

positively

2%

Hasn’t had any

influence

45%

Has influenced

negatively

11%


24

Who should be in charge of organizing memorial events dedicated to the

memory of genocide of the Crimean Tatar people?


DK/NA

36%

Other

3%

Mejlis* of the

Crimean Tatar people

36%

Authority bodies

18%

Opposition to the

Mejlis of the Crimean

Tatar people

7%


*The Mejlis is the central executive body of the Kurultai of Crimean Tatars, living in their homeland of Crimea, Ukraine.

25

There is a provision in Ukrainian legislation that requires a rayon council to address

an issue if it is raised in a citizen initiated public hearing. Are you aware of this

provision in the law or have you ever taken part in a public hearing?

1

1

4

14

10

14 59

15

22

23

67

70

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

May 2013

Oct 2011

Nov 2009

Yes, I have participated in a public hearing

Yes, I am aware of this provision but I have not participated in a public hearing

No, I am not aware of this provision and have not participated in a public hearing

DK/NA

25

% % % % % % % % % % %


26

POLITICS


27

If pre-term parliamentary elections were announced today, would you vote in such

elections?

Definitely yes

29%

Rather no

15%

Definitely no

23%

DK/NA

6%

Rather yes

27%


28

Would you participate in the presidential election, if it were to take place next

Sunday?

Definitely yes

33%

Rather no

22%

Definitely no

12%

DK/NA

9%

Rather yes

24%


29

In your opinion, has the situation in the following areas improved or worsened during

last two years?

76

61

56

54

51

49

47

44

44

42

41

40

34

33

26

24

16

16

15

20

31

38

36

38

36

38

42

40

36

45

43

44

43

56

54

63

59

73

3

3

5

8

4

13

12

11

4

18

11

6

18

19

15

19

17

12

5

1

5

1

2

7

2

3

3

12

4

3

10

4

5

3

3

4

13

7

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Prices

Healthcare

Housing and communal services

Employment

Agriculture

Economy of Ukraine

Fight against corruption

Stability of hryvnia


Social protection

Fight against criminality

Small and medium business

Government competence

Political stability

Salary/pension payments


Situation with languages

European integration of Ukraine


Worsened Stayed the same Improved DK/NA


30

MASS MEDIA


31

On average, how many times per week do you use Internet?

16

23

19

4

7

15

6

9

14

6

5

7

6

3

4

57

52

40

5

1

1

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Nov 2009

Oct 2011

May 2013

Every day 5-6 times per week 3-4 times per week 1-2 times per week Less often Never DK/NA

% % % % % % % % % % %


32

SELF-PERCEIVED

SOCIO-ECONOMIC STATUS


33

What can you say about the financial status of your family?

5.5

7

19

23.5

27

26

48

39

28

19

21

18

2

3 1 4

51

2

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

May 2013

Oct 2011

Nov 2009

Need to save money for food

Enough money for food but it is necessary to save or borrow money for buying clothes and shoes

Enough money for food and necessary clothes and shoes. It is necessary to save or borrow money for such purchases as a

good suit, a mobile phone or a vacuum cleanerEnough money for food, buying clothes, shoes and other purchases. It is necessary to save or borrow money for purchasing

more expensive things (such as a laundry machine or a refrigerator)Enough money for food, buying clothes, shoes and expensive purchases. It is necessary to save or borrow money for

purchases like a car or an apartmentI can buy anything at any time

DK/NA


34

SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHICS


35

Gender

Male

45%

Female

55%

Age groups

50+

43%

18-29

23%

30-49

34%


36

Education

University, higher

29%

General secondary

21%

Primary

1%

Vocational secondary

41%

Non-complete

secondary

4%Non-complete higher

4%

Membership in a political party or nongovernmental

organizationMember of a

nongovernmental

organization

1%

None

96%Member of a party

3%


37

Attendance of religious service

Few times a week

3%

Once a week

7%

Once a month

10%

A few times per year

37%

Never

43%

Religion

Orthodox

58%

Muslim

15%

Atheist

2%

Other

2%

I believe in God but

don't belong to any

religion

10%

DK/NA

13%


38

Sector of employment

Private sector

37%

Don't work

50%

State sector

13%

Public non-government

sector

0.3%

Occupation

Student

7%

Housewife

8%

Unemployed

6%

Other

4%Higher and medium

level executive

1%

Pensioner

25%

White collar

29%

Blue collar

16%

Farmer

4%


39

Language usually spoken at home

Russian and other

equally

3%

Ukrainian and Russian

equally

3%

Crimean Tatar

10%

Ukrainian

2%

Russian

82%

Ethnicity

Other

6%

Crimean Tatar

15%

Ukrainian

20%

Russian

59%


40

SETTLEMENT

Rural areas

31%

Other towns

38%

Sevastopol

16%

Simferopol

15%


Documents

survey of public opinion in Crimea