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Support for RPP2 Housing Futures
Review & Proposals
R Emmanuel, K Baker, M Phillipson GCU Feb 01, 2012
Outline Background issues Review of RPP1 (devolved/non-devolved) General concerns Approaches for future (2022-2030 & beyond)
Baker et al., 2011 RPP2: Housing Futures 2
Background
Energy use in homes, housing stock
Key UK-wide trends Average household energy use has also fallen in real
terms from 22,235 to 18,639 kWh from 1970 to 2009, with the levelling off observed since 1995 Improvements in the Building Regulations, leading to a
consistent increase in SAP ratings Promotion and uptake of common energy efficiency
measures The changing climate – warmer winters Increase in occupants' expectations of thermal comfort, Rapid and sustained rise in energy demand for appliances
and consumer technology
4Baker et al., 2011 RPP2: Housing Futures
Key UK-wide trends . . . Other trends
Decline in energy use for water heating and cooking, related to the switch to gas
Ageing population Ageing housing stock and levels of maintenance Rapid increase in the number of employees working from
home Changes in the tenure mix – recent growth in the (less
energy efficient) privately-rented sector is a particular problem
5Baker et al., 2011 RPP2: Housing Futures
Scottish Housing Stock
6
Age of dwelling
Fraction of national total
Type of dwelling (tonnes/yr) Emission by Age of dwelling (tonnes/yr)
Detached Semi-detached
Terra-ced
Tene-ment
Other flats
Pre-1919 19% 17.5 11.2 9.5 5.2 8.8 9.91919 – 1944
14% 15.7 8.1 6.1 4.2 4.4 7.0
1945 – 1964
22% 12.4 6.7 5.3 3.9 4.3 5.7
1965 – 1982
23% 9.2 6.0 5.0 4.2 3.9 5.9
Post-1982 22% 7.5 4.5 4.0 3.3 3.1 5.2ALL 100% 11.0 7.0 5.6 4.2 4.8 6.6
Mean CO2 emissions (tonnes /yr) in dwellings in ScotlandSource: SHCS, 2011
Baker et al., 2011 RPP2: Housing Futures
Type Application ResponsibilityFabric Grid de-
carbonisationNew build Existing Devolved Non-
devolvedPolicies
Smart meter X XCERT X X XCESP X X XEAP X X XHIS / UHIS X X XEnergy Stds. 2007/2010 X X X X XRHI X X
ProposalsFuel poverty & insulation X X XDomestic energy std 2013 X X X XRegulations en. efficiency X X XESSAC X X X XLocal Housing Strategies X X X XLESA X X XEPBD X X X XTolerable Std. X X XReduce emission from Social Housing
X X X
Loans to landlords X X XHSCCC X X XCCF X XGreen Deal X X X XECO X X X
RPP1 landscape
7Baker et al., 2011 RPP2: Housing Futures
Review of RPP1
Devolved Issues
Insulation without compromising IAQ/Ventilation provision Thermal comfort improvement in under-heated housing
could have a positive health impact, particularly amongst elderly occupants
Reduction in dampness problems or resultant mould issues could benefit in terms of reduced risk of respiratory problems
Quality & performance of existing housing
9Baker et al., 2011 RPP2: Housing Futures
‘The best UK exemplar in terms of providing both a comprehensive approach ... and to linking the fourth level of assistance to the energy inefficiency of the home.’ (Boardman, 2010)
In its first year the EAP along with HIS achieved the installation of 11,502 new heating systems and 26,110 measures, at a cost of £65.9 million
Effectiveness heavily dependent on retaining the engagement of households from stage to stage
EAP/HIS/UHIS
10Baker et al., 2011 RPP2: Housing Futures
Main problems . . . Supply not being able to meet demand, particularly in rural
areas Contradiction between driving energy efficiency and reducing
fuel poverty Accessing of CERT for part of the funding (for EAP/HIS) may be
risky in the long term However, given the popularity and demand, expanding
these make sense
EAP/HIS/UHIS
11Baker et al., 2011 RPP2: Housing Futures
Scottish New Build Domestic Energy Stds. 2007-2013 Problems particular to housing in exposed locations
Addressing the urban / rural divide Problems particular to tenure
Triggering energy efficient renovation Scottish New Build Domestic Energy Stds. 2013-2022
Is net zero carbon by 2016/17 still valid?
Other devolved issues
12Baker et al., 2011 RPP2: Housing Futures
Review of RPP1
Non-devolved Issues
EPBD and EPCs CERT and CESP FiTs Green Deal / ECO
Key issues
14Baker et al., 2011 RPP2: Housing Futures
Consultation on EPBD recast now closed No evidence that EPCs are driving up demand for energy
efficient buildings (or higher rentals) Needs awareness-raising and education - current proposals will
aid this Emphasis on giving consumers the best information, in
the best format, at the best time
EPBD and EPCs
15Baker et al., 2011 RPP2: Housing Futures
CERT Issue of bias towards energy efficiency over microgen Support recommendations in RPP1 sections 4.56 to 4.58
CESP Problems with complexity Take up rate disproportionately low in Scotland (and London) Appears less successful with the fuel poor
Much useful evidence for informing future work Future initiatives should have wider scopes of measures
and maximise delivering packages of intervention measures
CERT and CESP
16Baker et al., 2011 RPP2: Housing Futures
Have led to 100% growth in capacity in Scotland, but 360% in England and Wales
Marked difference in measures installed Scotland: wind and hydro; E&W: solar Reflects greater take up in rural areas
Need to increase take up in urban and fuel poor areas Problem of signals from Westminster to the industry and
investors
FiTs
17Baker et al., 2011 RPP2: Housing Futures
Response to proposals given in the full report Causes for concern:
For households not connected to the gas grid there will be "no additional incentive" for heat pumps or low carbon heat over more traditional approaches (p. 74)
The proposals "do not intend to take account of “active comfort taking” in the savings estimates as the assessment is based on the physical performance of the building“ (p. 82)
"We do not propose to guarantee that the charge will be fully offset by the savings. This would be extremely difficult to either implement or enforce. However, there is nothing to stop organisations going further and guaranteeing that their measures will save customers money" (p. 106)
Support for energy efficiency, renewables and tackling fuel poverty should not be allowed to fall following the retirement of CERT
Any schemes should not ultimately lead to higher bills for the poor
Green Deal and ECO
18Baker et al., 2011 RPP2: Housing Futures
General concerns
Cost vs. CO2 savings
20
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,0000
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
470
533
33
933
1964-82 CWH - Loft insl
1048
484
1577
626
2848
1982 TFH - 100% LEL
666
3758
Installation Cost (£)
CO
2 S
avin
gs (
kg/y
ear)
Note: SF – Solid Wall Flat; CWH – Cavity Wall House; TFH – Timber Frame House
WA GSHP – Warm Air Ground Source Heat Pump; Combined = insulation + lighting + boiler replacement + GSHP
Baker et al., 2011 RPP2: Housing Futures
Micro/distributed generation
21
Supply Limits in Scotland
Installed micro- and distributed-generation in Scotland
Technology Number Peak Capacity1 (kW)
Energy (MWh/yr) Date of Source2
Solar PV 95 414 352 Aug 2008Micro-CHP 16-81 561 - Dec 2006Wind 410 771 676 Dec 2007Micro-Hydro 21 262 1,148 Aug 2008Solar Thermal 10,700-11,100 22,400-23,400 14,400-15,000 Jul 2008Biomass 196 3,920 3,360 Aug 2008GSHP 1,057 6,871 18,091 Aug 2008ASHP 96 416 1,643 Aug 2008
2007 shares in generation
Supply limits in 2020
Maximum MinimumWave 0 0 10.5Tidal - 0 5Onshore wind 5.5 5 35Offshore wind 0 2 15Nuclear 25.6 0 20CCGT 26.2 0 25Pulverised fuel 28.7 0 35Hydroelectric 12.2 0 15Biomass 1.8 0 5Pulverised fuel with CCS - 0 35CCGT with CCS - 0 25
Baker et al., 2011 RPP2: Housing Futures
Source: Element Energy, 2008
Source: Allan et al., 2011
Renewables and distributed generation
22
Fundamental need for new infrastructure New developments New build Retrofitted Networks for microgeneration Networks for renewable heat Low voltage networks In the long term – the Supergrid
Ownership Technological mix How to bridge the demand gap?
Baker et al., 2011 RPP2: Housing Futures
Others
23
Modelled performance vs. Post Occupancy Evaluation Actual insulation performance is often less than expected
(poor workmanship, unrealistic assumptions about stock . . .) Occupant behaviour (‘take back’) Model limitations
Behaviour change, adaptation and community empowerment Smart meters Energy efficiency advice services Using ‘what works’ in behaviour change Engaging communities Funding, monitoring and evaluating
Baker et al., 2011 RPP2: Housing Futures
Approaches for the future
2022-2030 & beyond
Our recommendations
25
Accelerate the fabric improvement programmes, especially covering Hard-to-Treat (HtT)
Decarbonise the grid at community scale Use smart meters for better energy management Enable better understanding of and support for changing
attitudes and behaviour, and better adaptation to change
Baker et al., 2011 RPP2: Housing Futures
Not all buildings are suitable for cavity wall insulation Those without cavity wall Conventional cavity wall with high exposure Consequence of cavity fill due to concerns re. cavity
Internal insulation Need to consider electrical sockets / service penetrations Interstitial condensation risk Reduction in internal space dimensions
Rendered external wall insulation and insulated over-cladding Generally more expensive option
HtT Properties
26Baker et al., 2011 RPP2: Housing Futures
HtT Properties . . .
27
Insulate and ventilate correctly External insulation
Changing the appearance of properties (positive for urban regeneration)
Covering over existing thermal bridges Improving the weather tightness of buildings
Backcourt insulation Stairwell insulation Concentrate on ‘fuel hungry’ households
Baker et al., 2011 RPP2: Housing Futures
Decarbonise the grid
28
Renewable heat is as much a priority as renewable electricity
Community scale solutions are cost and carbon effective To sell micro-generation, sell efficiency first
Tighter regulations Changes to planning system
Heat mapping / exemplar DH solutions / pilot schemes Longer term – significant potential for anaerobic digestion
Baker et al., 2011 RPP2: Housing Futures
Decarbonise the grid: barriers
29
CERT Buy Back
RO LCBP FIT 2016 Zero Carbon Target
CSH Plan
EconomicInvestment riska X X XCost—capital and operationalb
X X X
Long pay-back periodc XLack of value to stakeholdersd X X X X X X X XLack of customer demand green energy/DRES
X
OrganisationIndustrial inertia(house-building and energy industries)e
X X X
Lack of ESCOs X X XAccess to gridInformationLack of accreditation system for products and service providers
X
Knowledge transfer
Baker et al., 2011 RPP2: Housing Futures
Source: Williams, 2010.
Prioritisation of research and development of intelligent energy management systems ('smart' smart meters) to best facilitate their integration into both the built environment and human lifestyles
Capitalising on the cumulative benefits of smart meter technologies that have uses beyond energy saving Remote control of building services and appliances Bridging gaps between the physical and social sciences to solve
problems relating to human factors Addressing public concerns over the collection and use of
energy data
Smart meters for effective energy mgmt.
30Baker et al., 2011 RPP2: Housing Futures
Behaviour & attitudinal change priorities
31
Adaptive behaviours favour greater thermal comfort over lower energy use
Greater control over indoor environments should result in more optimal energy use, which aids energy efficiency
Adopting more energy efficient behaviours will reduce household energy consumption But these behaviours are complex, and are the products of
underlying attitudes and behaviours Understand ‘what works’ and use a bigger toolbox
Communities have key roles Normalising (and delivering?) behaviour / lifestyle change
Baker et al., 2011 RPP2: Housing Futures
References:
32
Allan G, Eromenko I, McGregor P, Swales K. 2011. The regional electricity generation mix in Scotland: A portfolio selection approach incorporating marine technologies, Energy Policy, 39, pp. 6–22
Baker K, Emmanuel R, Phillipson M. 2011. Final Report: Support for RPP2 Housing Futures. CXC1109-01. Report submitted to Scotland and Northern Ireland Forum for Environmental Research (SNIFFER) (on behalf of ClimateXChange). Available at: www.climatexchange.org.uk
Element Energy, 2008. Numbers of Microgeneration Units Installed in England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland. Report to BERR. Available at: http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http://www.berr.gov.uk/files/file49151.pdf
SHCS 2011. Scottish House Condition Survey: Key Findings 2010. Available at: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2011/11/23172215/0
Williams J. 2010. The deployment of decentralised energy systems as part of the housing growth programme in the UK, Energy Policy, 38, pp. 7604–7613
Baker et al., 2011 RPP2: Housing Futures