Investigating the Undetected Early European Covid-19 Outbreak between December 2019 and February 2020 and the Failures of Public Policy to Manage the Epidemic

May 2020

By Prof Dr Peer EdererGlobal Food and Agribusiness Network

The author can be contacted on LinkedinAll documentation can also be accessed on the author’s homepage www.foodandagribusiness.org

Supplement IVCharts on the GISAID Phylogenomic Dendrogram of SARS-CoV-2

All charts copied as of 14 May 2020 from the sourceNextstrain.org

1) The SARS-CoV-2 global phylogenetic dendrogram on 14 May 2020

2) The main Chinese clade

The city of Wuhan – where the firstcases were confirmed

3) A super-spreader event in Wuhan on 24 December: the Wuhan Lights Festival ?

Happy Valley ParkLight Show24 December30 known branches

Spanish descendant>

<Thai descendant

<Saudi Arabiandescendant

4) A super-spreader event in USA Washington State: Kirkland Life Care Center

WA-Snohomish County,35 year old who returnedfrom Wuhan on 15 January,tested positive on 20 January

Two British Columbia infections chains in Canada

Kirkland Life Care Center, super-spreadingend of Januaryto 29 known branches

5) Most European infections occur on the A2 clade which separated from the China outbreakalready in November 2019 and which is characterized by the D614G Mutation

403 direct descendantsfrom the China outbreak

1817 direct descendantsfrom the parallel outbreak in Europe which remainedundetected until end ofFebruary

A2 cladeforkedalready in November 2019

6) The European infections on the Europe subsample only

673 direct descendantsfrom the China outbreak

2982 direct descendantsfrom the paralleloutbreak in Europe whichremained undetected

7) The European A2 clade is characterized by the D614G mutation

Yellow: D614G mutationGreen: D614D mutation

8) The North American infections

1180 direct descendantsfrom the China outbreak

2693 direct descendantsfrom the undetectedEuropean outbreak

8) The North American infections in California versus New York

California sequenced mutations New York sequenced mutations

10) The outbreak in Spain

The Spanish outbreak isstrongly clustered on oneEuropean clade

Wuhan descendant cluster

11) The outbreak in France

The French outbreak isclustered inParis (lower arrow) and in the Alps (upper arrow)

12) The outbreaks in Belgium and Netherlands

Spanish outbreak stronglyclustered on oneEuropean branch

Wuhan Light Festival cluster

Belgium sequenced mutations Netherlands sequenced mutations

13) The outbreaks in Austria and Germany

Spanish outbreak stronglyclustered on oneEuropean branch

Wuhan Light Festival cluster

Austria sequenced mutations Germany sequenced mutations

14) The Bavarian Webasto cases on 28 January 2020

The Webasto cousin cladeinfected also cases in Finland,Belgium and Brazil

The Webasto 33- year old man, first case

The Chinese business woman at Webasto

15) The mutations of the Webasto case and sequences found in Graz in late March

16) The first confirmed Italian case in Codogno

The German Webasto case

The Italian Codogno case

The common ancestorto both cases at the

beginning of January

17) A large-scale super-spreading event: The ISPO Sports Business Trade Fair in Munich?

18) A large-scale super-spreading event: The Munich Fabric Start 2020 Trade Fair ?

19) The joint infection activity of Paris and New York: the New York Fashion Week ?

Two super-spreadingevents which infectedNew York and ParissimultaneouslyGreen dots = ParisRed dots = New York

20) Summary of proposed assignment of super-spreading events to the dendrogram

Men‘s and Women‘s Fashion Show New York 03-12 Feb

Munich Fabric Start 2020 Trade Fair 04-06 Feb

Munich ISPO Sports Business Trade Fair 26-29 Jan

Four Hills Tournament Innsbruck 03/04 Jan

Webasto case

Codogno case

Gangelt outbreak

Santa Claus in Innsbruck01-06 December 2019