16
Ⅲ Appendices Supplement Fiscal Conditions and Debt Outstandings 172 (1) General Account Tax Revenues, Total Expenditures and Government Bond Issues Supplement Fiscal Conditions and Debt Outstandings (2) Government Bond Issues and Bond Dependency Ratio 41.9 57.7 Total Tax Revenues Total Expenditures JGB Issues (New Financial Resource Bonds) Note 1: FY1975-FY2017: Settlement; FY2018: Second revised budget; FY2019: Budget Note 2: Following various bonds are excluded: Ad-hoc Special Deficit-Financing bonds issued in FY1990 as a source of funds to support peace and reconstruction activities in the Persian Gulf Region, Tax reduction-related Special Deficit-Financing bonds issued in FY1994-1996 to make up for decline in tax revenues due to a series of income tax cuts preceding consumption tax hike from 3% to 5%, Reconstruction bonds issued in FY2011 as a source of funds to implement measures for the Reconstruction from the Great East Japan Earthquake, Pension-related Special Deficit-Financing bonds issued in FY2012,2013 as a source of funds to achieve the targeted one-half National contribution to basic pension. Note 3: In calculating Bond Dependency Ratio, "Temporary Bond", issued while securing future financial resources by the establishment of the Special tax, etc. are excluded. Note 4: In calculating Bond Dependency Ratio in FY2011, reconstruction-related expenditures, which are managed in Special Account for Reconstruction from the Great East Japan Earthquake after FY2012 and are not included in the total amount of General Account Expenditure, are included. If all reconstruction-related expenditures are excluded from total amount of General Account Expenditure, Bond Dependency Ratio in FY2011 is 46.7%. Note 5: The amount of Bond issues in FY2019 includes the bond issued for the Temporal and Special Measures; and the amount in parentheses represents the Construction bond issued for the Temporal and Special Measures. In calculating Bond Dependency Ratio in FY2019, the bond issued for the Temporal and Special Measures is excluded. Note 1: FY1975-FY2017: Settlement; FY2018: Second Supplementary Budget; FY2019: Initial Budget Note 2: Following various bonds are excluded: Ad-hoc Special Deficit-Financing bonds issued in FY1990 as a source of funds to support peace and reconstruction activities in the Persian Gulf Region, Tax-reduction-related Special Deficit-Financing bonds issued in FY1994-1996 to make up for decline in tax revenues due to a series of income tax cuts preceding consumption tax hike from 3% to 5%, Reconstruction bonds issued in FY2011 as a source of funds to implement measures for reconstruction from the Great East Japan Earthquake, Pension-related Special Deficit-Financing bonds issued in FY2012,2013 as a source of funds to achieve the targeted one-half National contribution to basic pension. Note 3: In FY2019, the dotted line in Total Expenditures represents a figure including the expenditure for the Temporal and Special Measures; and the solid line represents a figure excluding it. The amount of JGB Issues includes the bond issued for the Temporal and Special Measures. 35.0 18.5 19.9 13.2 9.5 9.6 5.3 7.2 10.7 13.514.2 12.9 14.013.512.8 12.3 11.3 9.4 7.2 6.6 6.3 6.7 16.2 18.4 34.0 37.5 33.0 30.0 35.3 35.5 31.3 27.5 25.4 33.2 52.0 42.3 42.8 41.5 38.7 34.9 32.4 30.5 100.7 84.8 50.6 47.2 46.9 43.4 38.8 34.1 29.1 20.9 32.7 33.6 38.0 47.5 42.8 40.9 38.5 34.9 35.4 24.5 51.5 53.0 53.6 61.5 65.9 69.3 70.5 70.5 75.1 73.6 75.9 78.8 78.5 84.4 89.0 89.3 83.7 82.4 84.9 85.5 81.4 81.8 84.7 101.0 95.3 97.1 100.2 98.8 98.2 97.5 98.1 101.4 101.5 99.4 13.8 15.7 17.3 21.9 23.7 26.9 29.0 38.2 46.8 50.8 54.9 60.1 59.8 54.4 54.1 51.0 51.9 52.1 53.9 49.4 47.2 50.7 47.9 43.8 43.3 45.6 49.1 49.1 51.0 44.3 43.9 47.0 54.0 56.3 55.5 58.8 59.9 62.5 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 (Unit: trillion yen) (FY) 32.1 34.9 34.2 35.5 39.0 40.8 48.9 44.4 51.5 39.2 33.7 36.6 41.8 42.9 41.8 42.1 23.5 25.2 21.5 9.2 21.0 23.2 24.8 26.6 29.7 27.5 31.3 29.4 25.3 27.3 26.3 29.1 31.9 33.8 36.0 34.4 34.7 36.9 26.2 19.3 21.1 23.5 26.8 28.7 20.9 21.9 24.3 16.9 8.5 9.2 2.0 0.2 1.0 2.5 6.4 6.7 2.1 3.5 4.5 4.3 6.3 7.2 5.9 7.0 6.0 5.0 0.8 25.8 28.4 25.7 8.1 8.9 6.6 7.0 11.4 8.4 7.6 7.0 6.0 7.8 8.7 11.1 13.2 17.0 9.9 10.7 16.4 12.3 16.2 9.5 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.3 6.8 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.1 6.3 5.0 3.7 3.2 6.4 6.9 6.4 6.7 9.1 9.1 6.7 6.4 15.0 6.5 7.3 7.0 (0.8) 32.9 34.7 32.6 16.3 11.6 10.1 9.5 13.5 17.9 24.2 40.3 36.9 35.4 31.0 42.5 39.0 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 50 40 30 20 10 0 (FY) (Unit: trillion yen) (%) Construction bonds Special deficit-financing bonds Public bond dependency

Supplement Fiscal Conditions and Debt Outstandings · Note 1: The consumption tax rate (central and local combined) is assumed to be raised to 10% on October 1, 2019, along with implementation

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Page 1: Supplement Fiscal Conditions and Debt Outstandings · Note 1: The consumption tax rate (central and local combined) is assumed to be raised to 10% on October 1, 2019, along with implementation

ⅢⅢ Appendices

Supplement Fiscal C

onditions and Debt O

utstandings

172

(1) General Account Tax Revenues, Total Expenditures and Government Bond Issues

【Supplement】Fiscal Conditions and Debt Outstandings

(2) Government Bond Issues and Bond Dependency Ratio

41.9

57.7

Total Tax Revenues

Total Expenditures

JGB Issues(New Financial Resource Bonds)

Note 1: FY1975-FY2017: Settlement; FY2018: Second revised budget; FY2019: BudgetNote 2: Following various bonds are excluded: Ad-hoc Special Deficit-Financing bonds issued in FY1990 as a source of funds to support peace and reconstruction activities in the Persian Gulf Region, Tax reduction-related Special Deficit-Financing bonds issued in FY1994-1996 to make up for decline in tax revenues due to a series of income tax cuts preceding consumption tax hike from 3% to 5%, Reconstruction bonds issued in FY2011 as a source of funds to implement measures for the Reconstruction from the Great East Japan Earthquake, Pension-related Special Deficit-Financing bonds issued in FY2012,2013 as a source of funds to achieve the targeted one-half National contribution to basic pension.Note 3: In calculating Bond Dependency Ratio, "Temporary Bond", issued while securing future financial resources by the establishment of the Special tax, etc. are excluded.Note 4: In calculating Bond Dependency Ratio in FY2011, reconstruction-related expenditures, which are managed in Special Account for Reconstruction from the Great East Japan Earthquake after FY2012 and are not included in the total amount of General Account Expenditure, are included. If all reconstruction-related expenditures are excluded from total amount of General Account Expenditure, Bond Dependency Ratio in FY2011 is 46.7%.Note 5: The amount of Bond issues in FY2019 includes the bond issued for the Temporal and Special Measures; and the amount in parentheses represents the Construction bond issued for the Temporal and Special Measures. In calculating Bond Dependency Ratio in FY2019, the bond issued for the Temporal and Special Measures is excluded.

Note 1: FY1975-FY2017: Settlement; FY2018: Second Supplementary Budget; FY2019: Initial BudgetNote 2: Following various bonds are excluded: Ad-hoc Special Deficit-Financing bonds issued in FY1990 as a source of funds to support peace and reconstruction activities in the Persian Gulf Region, Tax-reduction-related Special Deficit-Financing bonds issued in FY1994-1996 to make up for decline in tax revenues due to a series of income tax cuts preceding consumption tax hike from 3% to 5%, Reconstruction bonds issued in FY2011 as a source of funds to implement measures for reconstruction from the Great East Japan Earthquake, Pension-related Special Deficit-Financing bonds issued in FY2012,2013 as a source of funds to achieve the targeted one-half National contribution to basic pension.Note 3: In FY2019, the dotted line in Total Expenditures represents a figure including the expenditure for the Temporal and Special Measures; and the solid line represents a figure excluding it. The amount of JGB Issues includes the bond issued for the Temporal and Special Measures.

35.0

18.519.9

13.29.59.6

5.37.2

10.713.514.212.914.013.512.812.311.3 9.4

7.2 6.6 6.3 6.7

16.218.4

34.037.5

33.030.0

35.3 35.531.3

27.525.4

33.2

52.0

42.3

42.841.5

38.734.9

32.430.5

100.7

84.8

50.6

47.2

46.943.4

38.834.1

29.1

20.9

32.733.638.0

47.542.8

40.938.5

34.9 35.4

24.5

51.5

53.0 53.6

61.565.9

69.3 70.5

70.5

75.1 73.6

75.9

78.8

78.5

84.4

89.0 89.3

83.7

82.4

84.9

85.5

81.4

81.884.7

101.0

95.3 97.1

100.2

98.8

98.2

97.5 98.1

101.4 101.5

99.4

13.815.7

17.321.9

23.726.9 29.0

38.2

46.850.8

54.960.1 59.8

54.4 54.1

51.0

51.9

52.1

53.9

49.4

47.2

50.7

47.9

43.843.3

45.649.1

49.1

51.0

44.3

43.9

47.0

54.056.3

55.5

58.8

59.9

62.5

120

100

80

60

40

20

075 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

(Unit: trillion yen)

(FY)

32.134.934.2

35.539.0

40.8

48.9

44.4

51.5

39.2

33.7

36.6

41.842.9

41.842.1

23.5

25.2

21.5

9.2

21.023.2

24.826.6

29.7

27.5

31.329.4

25.3

27.326.3

29.131.9

33.836.0

34.434.7

36.926.2

19.321.1

23.526.8

28.7

20.921.9

24.316.9

8.59.22.00.21.02.5

6.46.72.1 3.5 4.5 4.3 6.3 7.2 5.9 7.0 6.0 5.0

0.8

25.8

28.4

25.7

8.18.96.6

7.0

11.48.4

7.6

7.0

6.0

7.8

8.7

11.113.2

17.0

9.910.7

16.4

12.316.2

9.56.36.2

6.26.36.87.0 7.0 7.07.1

6.35.03.7

3.2

6.4

6.96.4 6.7

9.19.1

6.7

6.4

15.0

6.57.3

7.0(0.8)

32.934.7

32.6

16.3

11.610.1 9.5

13.517.9

24.2

40.3

36.9

35.4

31.0

42.5 39.0

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

50

40

30

20

10

0

(FY)

(Unit: trillion yen) (%)

Construction bonds

Special deficit-financing bonds

Public bond dependency

Page 2: Supplement Fiscal Conditions and Debt Outstandings · Note 1: The consumption tax rate (central and local combined) is assumed to be raised to 10% on October 1, 2019, along with implementation

Ⅲ AppendicesSupplem

ent Fiscal Conditions and D

ebt Outstandings

173

(4) Projections in Primary Balance (Central and Local government basis ; percentage of GDP)

(3) Changes in Ratio of Primary Balance to GDP(% of GDP)

▲4.7▲4.7 ▲3.8

▲3.0

▲2.4▲1.9

▲3.7

▲7.8

▲6.4▲6.6

▲5.8 ▲5.8

▲4.1

▲3.4▲3.3

▲2.5

▲3.1▲2.8

▲5.5▲5.3

▲3.8

▲2.6

▲1.6

▲1.2

▲2.8

▲7.3

▲6.3▲6.4

▲5.5▲5.3

▲3.8

▲2.9 ▲2.9

▲2.2

▲2.8▲2.6

▲ 9.0

▲ 8.0

▲ 7.0

▲ 6.0

▲ 5.0

▲ 4.0

▲ 3.0

▲ 2.0

▲ 1.0

0.0

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Ratio of Primary Balance (Central government) to GDP as percentage

Ratio of Primary Balance (Central/Local government) to GDP as percentage

(FY)Note: Excluding the expenditures and �scal resources for the recovery and reconstruction measures related to the 2011 Earthquake. (Source) Cabinet Of�ce “Economic and Fiscal Projections for Medium to Long Term Analysis (Jan, 2019)”

▲7.0

▲6.0

▲5.0

▲4.0

▲3.0

▲2.0

▲1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

(FY)

(% of GDP)

FY2010Base year(▲6.3%)

FY2015Fiscal Consolidation Target(Halving from the 2010 rate)

(▲3.2%)

FY2015(▲2.9%) -achieved

FY2020Projection (▲1.7%)

Note 1: The consumption tax rate (central and local combined) is assumed to be raised to 10% on October 1, 2019, along with implementation of the reduced rate for the consumption tax.

Note 2: In terms of measures for the consumption tax hike, free early childhood education, the enhancement of the social security system and the Temporal and Special Measures in the Draft FY2019 Budget are reflected. In FY2020, the Temporal and Special Measures which are currently assumed to continue (Point Rewards to Consumers via Small and Medium-sized Retail Business, etc., Benefits for Housing Purchase, Disaster Prevention, Disaster Mitigation, and Building National Resilience) are also reflected. In addition, supports on tax systems such as the extension of housing loan reduction tax are reflected.

Note 3: Excluding the expenditures and fiscal resources for the recovery and reconstruction measures related to the 2011 Earthquake.

(Source) Cabinet Office “Economic and Fiscal Projections for Medium to Long Term Analysis (Jan, 2019)”

Economic Growth Achieved Case

Baseline Case

Page 3: Supplement Fiscal Conditions and Debt Outstandings · Note 1: The consumption tax rate (central and local combined) is assumed to be raised to 10% on October 1, 2019, along with implementation

ⅢⅢ Appendices

Supplement Fiscal C

onditions and Debt O

utstandings

174

(6) Historical Changes in Government Debt-related Expenditures

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Note 1: Figures may not sum up the total because of rounding.Note 2: FY2010‐FY2017: settlement; FY2018: supplementary budget; FY2019: initial budget.Note 3: FY2011: Reconstruction Bonds‐related expenditures are excluded.Note 4: Average Interest Rate is the weighted average of the nominal rate on coupon‐bearing JGBs.

(Reference) 1.29% 1.24% 1.19% 1.15%Average Interest Rate 1.11% 1.08% 1.01% 0.95%

7.5 7.8 7.9 8.1 8.2 8.1 7.9 7.9 8.7

10.7 10.6 11.2 11.812.7 12.8 13.2 14.1 14.4

14.3

1.4 1.3 1.1 0.8

0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4

0.5

19.5 19.6 20.0 20.4

21.5 21.7 22.0 22.5 22.7

23.5

Borrowing related cost, Administratiion expense, etc.JGB redemptionJGB interest payment

(Unit: trillion yen)

7.8

(5) Government Debt-related Expenditures in the General Account-Breakdown by Categories (FY2019)(Unit: billion yen)

Category FY2018 (Initial) FY2019 (Initial) Changes

Debt Redemption Expenses 14,274.5 14,658.0 383.5

JGB Redemption 13,904.0 14,301.8 397.8

Transfer Fund by the 60-Year Redemption Rule 13,110.8 13,495.9 385.1

Transfer Fund Equivalent to Income from Special Account for Social Infrastructure Improvement 81.6 67.7 ▲13.9

Transfer Fund by the Budget 711.6 738.2 26.6

Borrowing Redemption 370.5 356.2 ▲14.3

Transfer Fund by the 60-Year Redemption Rule 186.8 177.5 ▲9.3

Transfer Fund by the Budget 183.6 178.7 ▲4.9

Interest Payment and Discount Expenses 8,997.8 8,815.3 ▲182.6

JGB Interest Payment 8,921.2 8,739.8 ▲181.4

Borrowing Interest Payment 16.7 15.5 ▲1.2

Financing Bills Discount Expense 60.0 60.0 –

Administration Expense 29.6 34.9 5.3

Total 23,302.0 23,508.2 206.2Note: Figures may not sum up to the total because of rounding.

Page 4: Supplement Fiscal Conditions and Debt Outstandings · Note 1: The consumption tax rate (central and local combined) is assumed to be raised to 10% on October 1, 2019, along with implementation

Ⅲ AppendicesSupplem

ent Fiscal Conditions and D

ebt Outstandings

175

Note: FY2018: Initial budget; FY2019: Draft budget; FY2020-FY2022: Projections based on the systems and policies underlying the FY2019 budget a) Temporal and Special Measures in FY2020 are included in “ ⑥ Others”. Figures are mechanically estimated. b) “ ④ Social Security-Related Expenditure” for FY2020 and the following years are estimated by adding the expenditure for the enhancement of social security

associated with implementation of the “Comprehensive Reform of Social Security and Tax” and “New Economic Policy Package” to the expenditure projected based on the systems and policies underlying the FY2019 budget.

c) “ ⑧ Tax Revenue” is assumed that the increase in the consumption tax rate to 10% in October 2019 is projected with the implementation of reduced tax rate which brings the decline in tax.

Note: FY2018: Initial budget; FY2019: Draft budget; FY2020-FY2022: Projections based on the systems and policies underlying the FY2019 budget a) Temporal and Special Measures in FY2020 are included in “ ⑥ Others”. Figures are mechanically estimated. b) “ ④ Social Security-Related Expenditure” for FY2020 and the following years are estimated by adding the expenditure for the enhancement of social security

associated with implementation of the “Comprehensive Reform of Social Security and Tax” and “New Economic Policy Package” to the expenditure projected based on the systems and policies underlying the FY2019 budget.

c) “ ⑧ Tax Revenue” is assumed that the increase in the consumption tax rate to 10% in October 2019 is projected with the implementation of reduced tax rate which brings the decline in tax.

FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022

Expenditure

① Central Debt Service Cost 23.3 23.5 25.0 26.0 27.0

② Interest Payment 9.0 8.8 9.9 10.6 11.3

③ Primary Balance Expenditure 74.4 77.9 80.5 80.4 82.1

④ Social Security-Related Expenditure 33.0 34.1 36.2 36.9 37.9

⑤ Local Allocation Tax Grants, etc. 15.5 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.6

⑥ Others 25.9 27.9 27.7 26.5 26.6

⑦ Total Expenditure 97.7 101.5 105.4 106.4 109.0

Tax Revenue,etc.

⑧ Tax Revenue 59.1 62.5 67.0 69.1 71.4

⑨ Other Revenues 4.9 6.3 4.7 4.7 4.7

⑩ Total Revenue 64.0 68.8 71.7 73.8 76.1

⑪ Difference of Balance(⑦ - ⑩) 33.7 32.7 33.7 32.6 32.9

⑫ Primary Balance ▲ 10.4 ▲ 9.2 ▲ 8.7 ▲ 6.6 ▲ 5.9

⑬ Fiscal Balance ▲ 19.4 ▲ 18.0 ▲ 18.6 ▲ 17.2 ▲ 17.2

(Unit: trillion yen)

(Unit: trillion yen)

(7) Projection of the FY2019 Budget Impact on Following Years’ Expenditure and Revenue[CASE 1] 【Case of 3.0% nominal economic growth rate】

[CASE 2] 【Case of 1.5% nominal economic growth rate】

FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022

Expenditure

① Central Debt Service Cost 23.3 23.5 24.9 25.8 26.7

② Interest Payment 9.0 8.8 9.8 10.5 11.0

③ Primary Balance Expenditure 74.4 77.9 80.1 79.7 80.9

④ Social Security-Related Expenditure 33.0 34.1 36.2 36.8 37.7

⑤ Local Allocation Tax Grants, etc. 15.5 16.0 16.3 16.5 16.8

⑥ Others 25.9 27.9 27.7 26.4 26.4

⑦ Total Expenditure 97.7 101.5 105.1 105.5 107.5

Tax Revenue,etc.

⑧ Tax Revenue 59.1 62.5 65.9 66.9 68.1

⑨ Other Revenues 4.9 6.3 4.7 4.7 4.7

⑩ Total Revenue 64.0 68.8 70.7 71.6 72.8

⑪ Difference of Balance(⑦ - ⑩) 33.7 32.7 34.4 33.9 34.8

⑫ Primary Balance ▲ 10.4 ▲ 9.2 ▲ 9.5 ▲ 8.0 ▲ 8.1

⑬ Fiscal Balance ▲ 19.4 ▲ 18.0 ▲ 19.3 ▲ 18.5 ▲ 19.1

Page 5: Supplement Fiscal Conditions and Debt Outstandings · Note 1: The consumption tax rate (central and local combined) is assumed to be raised to 10% on October 1, 2019, along with implementation

ⅢⅢ Appendices

Supplement Fiscal C

onditions and Debt O

utstandings

176

(8) Cash-flow Projections of the GDCF(Unit: billion yen)

Issuance ofRefunding Bonds

RedemptionAmount

InterestPayments, etc

JGBOutstanding at the end of FY

FY2019 891,310.0 8,980.0 115,690.0 101,330.0

FY2020 911,130.0 10,020.0 119,580.0 104,810.0

FY2021 929,570.0 10,770.0 114,580.0 99,550.0

FY2022 948,100.0 11,470.0 116,120.0 100,780.0

FY2023 966,340.0 12,270.0 116,510.0 100,850.0

FY2024 984,330.0 12,990.0 118,330.0 102,390.0

FY2025 1,002,030.0 13,660.0 120,770.0 104,570.0

FY2026 1,019,470.0 14,350.0 117,050.0 100,580.0

FY2027 1,036,640.0 15,040.0 120,090.0 103,350.0

FY2028 1,053,560.0 15,710.0 119,190.0 102,170.0

Note.1: This calculation is based on the same assumptions as in “CASE 1” of the “Budget Projections in FY2019 Budget Policy". After FY2023, it is assumed that the amount of new issuance is equal to the “gap” in FY2022, with the same interest rates as those in FY2022.

Note.2: This calculation covers JGBs related to the fixed-rate transfers from the General Account and to the transfers equivalent to the gap between issuance-price and face value. The Special Bonds for covering Public Pension Funding are included, while the Reconstruction Bonds are excluded.

Note.3: “Issuance of Refunding Bonds” includes revenues from the Refunding Bonds that are qualified to be issued in the previous fiscal year. The volume of buy-backs is assumed to be equal to the FY2019 level, financed by issuing refunding bonds.

Note.4: “Interest Payments, etc” includes administrative costs, government bonds office handling costs and revenues from Special Tobacco Tax (which are brought into the Special Account for Government Bonds Consolidation Funds).

Note.5: This calculation does not assume surpluses to occur.Note.6: Figures may not sum up to the total because of rounding.Note.7: The above data are subject to changes for different assumptions.

○ Difference in Debt Service Cost for various interest rate assumptions(unit : trillion yen), ( ) for the amount of Debt Service Cost

Note: The interest rate for FY2019 in [CASE 1] is based on FY2019 budget, and the rates after FY2020 are calculated reflecting implied forward rates.

[Reference] Projections of various interest rate assumptions (Sensitivity analyses based on [CASE 1])

interest rate(Difference from [CASE 1]) FY2022FY2021FY2020

+2%

+1%

-1%

+ 2.1( 27.0 )

+ 1.0( 26.0 )

▲ 1.0( 23.9 )

+ 4.3( 30.3 )

+ 2.1( 28.1 )

▲ 2.1( 23.9 )

+ 6.3( 33.3 )

+ 3.1( 30.1 )

▲ 3.0( 24.0 )

Page 6: Supplement Fiscal Conditions and Debt Outstandings · Note 1: The consumption tax rate (central and local combined) is assumed to be raised to 10% on October 1, 2019, along with implementation

Ⅲ AppendicesSupplem

ent Fiscal Conditions and D

ebt Outstandings

177

(9) Changes in the Outstanding Amount of JGBs, Financing Bills, Borrowings and Government-Guaranteed Debt(Unit: billion yen)

Category FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018

Government Bonds (JGBs) 720,489.0 758,569.0 789,342.0 821,474.1 853,763.6 881,484.7 910,809.7 934,900.2 959,141.3 976,803.5

General Bonds (Reconstruction Bonds)

593,971.7 ( − )

636,311.7( − )

669,867.4(10,652.9)

705,007.2 (10,328.3)

743,867.6(9,013.5)

774,083.1(8,279.5)

805,418.2( 5,945.6)

830,573.3 (6,721.3)

853,178.9 (5,481.3)

874,043.4(5,376.3)

Long-term (10 years or more) 373,154.5 404,367.9 432,957.7 462,771.8 497,452.0 532,992.6 574,789.9 610,823.0 642,401.2 674,899.5

Medium-term (from 2 to 5 years) 177,193.2 192,631.5 195,097.6 195,522.5 204,708.2 203,289.9 194,434.2 186,776.4 183,981.6 175,047.9

Short-term (one year or less) 43,624.0 39,312.3 41,812.1 46,712.9 41,707.4 37,800.6 36,194.1 32,974.0 26,796.2 24,096.1

FILP Bonds 122,225.3 118,191.8 110,912.2 109,260.7 104,210.4 98,991.0 96,115.5 96,250.9 94,525.9 92,245.6

Long-term (10 years or more) 100,274.3 100,788.8 91,906.8 86,600.9 80,546.4 71,341.2 62,811.7 58,692.3 60,631.8 61,600.2

Medium-term (from 2 to 5 years) 21,951.0 17,403.0 19,005.5 22,659.8 23,664.0 27,649.8 33,303.8 37,558.7 33,894.1 30,645.5

Subsidy Bonds 449.6 367.3 282.6 197.7 174.6 135.5 134.2 209.4 194.1 144.0

Subscription / Contribution Bonds 1,767.1 1,623.0 1,874.2 2,189.7 2,510.0 2,681.8 4,761.2 4,627.7 4,444.1 4,342.3

Government Bonds issued to Development Bank of Japan 1,350.0 1,350.0 1,343.8 1,324.7 1,324.7 1,324.7 1,324.7 1,324.7 1,324.7 1,324.7

Government Bonds issued to Nuclear Damage Compensation and Decommissioning Facilitation Corporation

− − 4,336.4 2,768.7 1,313.0 4,268.7 3,056.0 1,914.2 5,473.6 4,703.4

Government Bonds converted from The Japan Expressway Holding and Debt Repayment Agency Bonds

725.4 725.4 725.4 725.4 363.3 − − − − −

Borrowings 56,406.3 55,005.8 53,741.0 54,859.3 55,504.7 54,984.1 54,807.5 54,420.0 54,022.8 53,201.8

Long-term (over one year) 21,092.1 19,691.6 18,226.7 17,245.1 16,458.2 15,687.6 14,861.0 14,032.9 13,218.5 12,526.3

Short-term (one year or less) 35,314.2 35,314.2 35,514.2 37,614.2 39,046.5 39,296.5 39,946.5 40,387.0 40,804.3 40,675.5

Financing Bills 106,028.1 110,784.7 116,867.3 115,267.7 115,688.4 116,888.3 83,748.9 82,239.2 74,648.9 73,349.0

Total 882,923.5 924,359.6 959,950.3 991,601.1 1,024,956.8 1,053,357.2 1,049,366.1 1,071,559.4 1,087,813.0 1,103,354.3

Category FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018

Government- Guaranteed Debt 46,596.0 44,744.6 44,039.7 44,945.8 44,532.6 43,398.4 41,780.6 40,283.2 39,711.7 38,108.7

Note: Figures may not sum up to the total because of rounding.

Page 7: Supplement Fiscal Conditions and Debt Outstandings · Note 1: The consumption tax rate (central and local combined) is assumed to be raised to 10% on October 1, 2019, along with implementation

ⅢⅢ Appendices

Supplement Fiscal C

onditions and Debt O

utstandings

178

(Unit: trillion yen)(Reference) Government Debt Outstanding Organized in Various Ways

Note 1: “Special Account for Local Allocation Tax” refers to “Special Account for Local Allocation Tax and Local Transfer Tax.”Note 2: The figures in parentheses are amounts excluding the maximum amount (53 trillion yen) of front‐loading issuance of Refunding Bonds used for refunding in the next fiscal year.Note 3: Government bonds outstanding (general bonds) as of the end of FY2019 include Reconstruction Bonds (approximately 5.4 trillion yen).Note 4: Borrowings in the General Account in①are part of borrowings in the Special Account for Local Allocation Tax transferred to the General Account.Note 5: Long‐term debt outstanding of local governments in② includes Local Government Bonds, borrowings in the Special Account for Local Allocation Tax and municipal enterprise bonds (attributed to the ordinary account) (18 trillion yen).Note 6: Borrowings in②and③= borrowings + Subscription/Contribution Bonds. Borrowings in②do not include the one in the Special Account for Local Allocation Tax (approximately 31 trillion yen), of which the redemption funds are burdens on local government.Note 7: Government bonds in④ include general bonds, Subsidy Bonds and converted government bonds and borrowings in④ include Subscription/ Contribution Bonds.

Government bonds outstanding[General bonds]:

897 (844)

①Public debt outstanding of centraland local governments

〈FY2019: Estimate〉 〈FY2019: Estimate〉 〈FY2019: Estimate〉【Office for Econometric Analysis, Cabinet Office 】

Local Governments: 194

Government bonds outstanding[General bonds]:

897 (844)

②Long‐term debt outstanding ofcentral and local governments

【Budget Bureau, Ministry of Finance】

Government bonds outstanding[General bonds]:

897 (844)

1,294

1,122(1,069)

1,082(1,029)

1,250(1,197)

The long‐term debtoutstanding of central andlocal governmentthat covers general policyexpenditure.

The long‐term debtoutstanding of central and localgovernment of which interestpayments and redemptionfunds are mainly covered bytax revenues.

The debt outstanding to show thewhole picture of the centralgovernment's financing activities suchas raising funds from the market.

The debt outstanding of generalgovernment (central government,local government and social securityfunds) calculated based on theuniversal standards and concepts (SNA) for international comparison.

Local bonds: 144

Borrowings in the Special Account forLocal Allocation Tax: 31

Borrowings in the GeneralAccount: 10

Borrowings: 31

Including 31 trillion yen inborrowings in the Special Account

for Local Allocation TaxBorrowings: 73

FB (Financing Bill): 198

FILP (Fiscal Investment andLoan Program) Bonds: 92

Borrowings: 63Including 31 trillion yen in

borrowings in the Special Accountfor Local Allocation Tax

including 24 trillion yen inTreasury Bills

③Government bonds andborrowings outstanding

【Financial Bureau, Ministry of Finance】

Debt of social security funds: 19

Local governments debt: 186

Debt of incorporatedadministrative agencies: 16

Treasury Discount Bills: 101

including 27 trillion yen inTreasury Bills

Including 32 trillion yen inborrowings in the Special Account

for Local Allocation Tax

Government Bonds[excluding Treasury Bills]: 899

④General government gross debt

〈FY2017: Actual〉【Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office】

Centralgovernment

debt

(10) Long-Term Debt Outstanding of Central and Local Governments(Unit: trillion yen)

FY1998<Actual>

FY2003<Actual>

FY2009<Actual>

FY2010<Actual>

FY2011<Actual>

FY2012<Actual>

FY2013<Actual>

FY2014<Actual>

FY2015<Actual>

FY2016<Actual>

FY2017<Actual>

FY2018<Estimated>

FY2019<Budget>

Central Government

390( 387 )

493( 484 )

621( 613 )

662( 645 )

694( 685 )

731( 720 )

770( 747 )

800( 772 )

834( 792 )

859( 815 )

881( 832 )

909( 854 )

928( 875 )

General Bonds

295( 293 )

457( 448 )

594( 586 )

636( 619 )

670( 660 )

705( 694 )

744( 721 )

774( 746 )

805( 764 )

831( 786 )

853( 805 )

880( 825 )

897( 844 )

Percentageof GDP

56%( 56% )

88%( 87% )

121%( 119% )

127%( 124% )

136%( 134% )

143%( 140% )

147%( 142% )

149%( 144% )

151%( 143% )

155%( 147% )

156%( 147% )

159%( 149% )

158%( 149% )

Local Governments 163 198 199 200 200 201 201 201 199 197 196 196 194

Percentage of GDP 31% 38% 40% 40% 41% 41% 40% 39% 37% 37% 36% 35% 34%

Total 553( 550 )

692( 683 )

820( 812 )

862( 845 )

895 ( 885 )

932( 921 )

972( 949 )

1,001( 972 )

1,033( 991 )

1,056( 1,012 )

1,077( 1,028 )

1,105( 1,050 )

1,122( 1,069 )

Percentage of GDP

105%( 105% )

134%( 132% )

167%( 165% )

173%( 169% )

181%( 179% )

189%( 186% )

192%( 187% )

193%( 188% )

194%( 186% )

197%( 189% )

197%( 188% )

200%( 190% )

198%( 189% )

Note 1: GDP: FY1998-FY2017: Actual Figures; FY2018 and FY2019: Based on the Government Economic Outlook Central Government debt: FY1998-FY2017: Actual Figures; FY2018: Second Supplementary Budget; FY2019: Initial Budget Local Government debt: FY1998–FY2017: Actual Figures; FY2018 and FY2019: Local Government Debt Plan, etc.

Note 2: Government Bonds Outstanding includes Reconstruction Bonds as a source of funds to implement the measures for the reconstruction from the Great East Japan Earthquake in FY2011-FY2019 (FY2011: 10.7 trillion yen, FY2012: 10.3 trillion yen, FY2013: 9.0 trillion yen, FY2014: 8.3 trillion yen, FY2015: 5.9 trillion yen, FY2016: 6.7 trillion yen, FY2017: 5.5 trillion yen, FY2018: 6.0 trillion yen, FY2019: 5.4 trillion yen) and Pension-related Special Deficit-Financing Bonds as a source of funds to achieve the targeted national contribution to one-half basic pension (FY2012: 2.6 trillion yen, FY2013: 5.2 trillion yen, FY2014: 4.9 trillion yen, FY2015: 4.6 trillion yen, FY2016: 4.4 trillion yen, FY2017: 4.1 trillion yen, FY2018: 3.9 trillion yen, FY2019: 3.6 trillion yen).

Note 3: Figures in parentheses (to FY2017) do not include front-loading issuance for refunding. Figures in parentheses (from FY2018) do not include front-loading limit of issuance for refunding.

Note 4: The borrowings in the Special Account for Local Allocation and Local Transfer Tax are shared by the central government and local governments in accordance with their shares of redemption. The amount of the borrowings outstanding incurred by the central government was transferred to the General Account at the beginning of FY2007, so that the borrowings outstanding in the Special Account since the end of FY2007 are the debt of the local governments (approx. 31 trillion yen in FY2019).

Note 5: Government Bonds Outstanding in the Special Account for Fiscal Investment and Loan Program are at approximately 92 trillion yen as of end-FY2019.

Page 8: Supplement Fiscal Conditions and Debt Outstandings · Note 1: The consumption tax rate (central and local combined) is assumed to be raised to 10% on October 1, 2019, along with implementation

Ⅲ AppendicesSupplem

ent Fiscal Conditions and D

ebt Outstandings

179

FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 (at the end of FY)

20 yrs-

10-20 yrs

9-10 yrs

8-9 yrs

7-8 yrs

6-7 yrs

5-6 yrs

4-5 yrs

3-4 yrs

2-3 yrs

1-2 yrs

-1 yr17.8% 18.3% 18.2% 17.9% 17.3% 16.4% 15.1% 14.3% 13.4% 13.1%

13.0% 12.5% 11.9% 12.4% 12.0% 11.1% 10.6% 10.5% 10.5% 10.8%

8.5% 7.9% 8.6% 8.1% 7.8% 7.8% 7.9% 7.7% 8.2% 7.0%8.4%

9.0% 8.6% 8.1% 8.1% 8.2% 7.8% 8.2% 7.1% 7.4%8.8%8.4% 7.8% 7.8% 7.8% 7.4% 7.8% 6.8% 6.8% 6.7%5.2%4.7%

4.9% 4.4% 4.2% 5.0% 4.2% 4.4% 5.0% 4.7%4.9%

5.2%4.6% 4.5% 5.0% 4.3% 4.4% 4.8% 4.7% 4.9%

5.5%4.8%

4.8%5.3%

4.5% 4.5% 5.0% 4.8% 5.0% 4.6%

5.2%5.1%

5.6%4.7%

4.8% 5.2% 4.9% 5.1% 4.7% 4.9%

4.7%5.2%

4.4%4.3%

4.6% 4.2% 4.5% 4.1% 4.0% 4.2%

14.4%14.4%

14.9%15.6%

16.5%17.7% 18.4% 19.2% 19.6% 20.2%

3.6%

4.6%

5.8%6.7%

7.5%8.3%

9.4%10.1%

11.1%11.6%

594.0

636.3669.9

705.0

743.9774.1

805.4830.6

853.2874.0

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

(12) Term-to-maturity Structure of General Bonds (FY2019 Initial Budget Basis)(Unit: billion yen)

Maturity RedemptionFY Maturity RedemptionFY 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 2051 2052 2053 2054 2055 2056 2057 2058 2059 Total

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039

Note: Figures may not sum up to the total because of rounding.

6,968.87,436.76,642.68,590.49,855.3

11,251.39,657.2

11,570.67,941.0

10,235.12,130.62,091.52,157.92,317.02,448.92,643.32,874.41,053.71,229.92,158.6

896,742.8

122,359.385,815.864,533.661,652.263,670.543,982.340,806.443,371.534,513.243,728.416,828.516,585.919,410.919,189.820,752.019,690.618,435.218,285.815,542.016,334.3

(Unit: trillion yen)

(11) Breakdown of the Outstanding Amount of General Bonds by Remaining Years to Maturity

*years to maturity

AverageYTM* 6Y5M 6Y8M 7Y0M 7Y3M 7Y7M 8Y0M 8Y5M 8Y7M 8Y10M 9Y0M

6Y6M 6Y10M 7Y1M 7Y5M 7Y8M 8Y0M 8Y5M 8Y8M 8Y11M 9Y1MAverage YTM*

(excluding savingbonds)

Page 9: Supplement Fiscal Conditions and Debt Outstandings · Note 1: The consumption tax rate (central and local combined) is assumed to be raised to 10% on October 1, 2019, along with implementation

ⅢⅢ Appendices

Supplement Fiscal C

onditions and Debt O

utstandings

180

(Unit: trillion yen)

Note: In FY2018, outstanding amount of General Bonds, interest rate weighted average and average years to maturity: settlement; interest payments of General Account: supplementary budget. In FY2019, outstanding amount of General Bonds and interest payments of General Account: initial budget.

(13) Breakdown of the Outstanding Amount of General Bonds by Maturity Types and Their Average Interest Rate at the end of FY 2018

(14) Outstanding Interest Rate Weighted Average, Interest Payment of General Bonds and Average Years to Maturity

(Unit : trillion yen)

Average 0.91%Average remaining years to maturity:9Y0M

(FY for redemption)

Averageinterest rate

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029~2038

2039~ 2057

0.58%

0.56%

0.63%

0.52%

0.67%

0.77%

0.71%

0.62%

0.65%

0.77%

1.51%

1.45%

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

20282029

~2038

2039~2057

Note.1: Figures in ( ) are the weighted averages of the average interest rates (nominal interest rates) of 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, 20-year, 30-year, and 40-year bonds.

Note.2: In order to hold down medium-to-long term costs, it is insufficient to have a structure of maturity that simply lowers the costs of interest at the issuance. When deciding the issuance amount by maturity, various factors need to be taken into consideration including market needs and trends, the relationship among funding costs, risks of interest rate fluctuations, refunding costs, and future redemption environments.

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180

(2.62%) (1.38%) (0.13%) (0.10%)

(2.24%) (1.13%) (0.10%) (0.10%)

(2.08%) (1.05%) (0.10%)

(1.59%) (0.74%) (0.10%)

(1.77%) (0.69%)

(2.11%) (0.47%)

(2.08%) (0.30%)

(2.16%) (0.10%)

(2.19%)

(2.09%) (0.10%)

(2.33%) (1.35%)

(1.53%) (1.43%)

40-yr bonds30-yr bonds20-yr bonds15-year-floating-rate bonds10-yr bondsJGBs for retail investors (Floating-rate)Inflation-Indexed bonds5-yr bondsJGBs for retail investors (5-yr fixed-rate)JGBs for retail investors (3-yr fixed-rate)2-yr bondsTreasury Bills

114.39

94.69

61.13

64.48

58.57

41.19

42.96

40.08

42.66

36.40 176.38

101.12

Average yearsto maturity

Interest payments of General Account

Interest rate weighted average

Outstanding Amountof General Bonds

FY2009

FY2010

FY2011

FY2012

FY2013

FY2014

FY2015

FY2016

FY2017

FY2018

FY2019

594.0

636.3

669.9

705.0

743.9

774.1

805.4

830.6

853.2

874.0

896.7

1.36 %

1.29 %

1.24 %

1.19 %

1.15 %

1.11 %

1.08 %

1.01 %

0.95 %

0.91 %

7.7

7.9

8.1

8.0

8.1

8.3

8.3

8.2

7.9

8.0

8.8

6Y5M

6Y8M

7Y0M

7Y3M

7Y7M

8Y0M

8Y5M

8Y7M

8Y10M

9Y0M

(0.10%)

(0.10%)

Page 10: Supplement Fiscal Conditions and Debt Outstandings · Note 1: The consumption tax rate (central and local combined) is assumed to be raised to 10% on October 1, 2019, along with implementation

Ⅲ AppendicesSupplem

ent Fiscal Conditions and D

ebt Outstandings

181

(15) Outstanding Amount of JGB and T-Bill -Breakdown by Holders-(Unit: billion yen, %)

Note 1: Figures are as of the end of the fiscal year, up to FY2017 are revised values, and those for FY2018 are preliminary values.Note 2: “JGB” includes “FILP Bonds.”Note 3: “Banks, etc.” includes “Japan Post Bank”, “Securities investment trust” and “Securities companies.”Note 4: “Life and Non-life insurance, etc.” includes “Japan Post Insurance.”Note 5: “Others” consists of “Nonfinancial corporations” and “Private nonprofit institutions serving households.”Note 6: Since February 2009, TBs and FBs have been jointly issued as T-Bills.Note 7: Figures of JGBs and T-Bills are calculated at market value in Flow of Funds Accounts. Figures in financial statements are different in basis from those in Flow of Funds Accounts due to a difference of evaluation methods by holding purpose (book value or market value).(Sources) Bank of Japan “Flow of Funds Accounts Statistics.”

15,882.5 1.9% 27,726.5 3.1% 17,205.8 1.9% 17,552.6 1.8% 23,546.9 2.3%

77,093.1 9.2% 73,503.7 8.3% 70,191.3 7.6% 69,950.7 7.2% 67,479.3 6.7%

1,383.7 0.2% 802.5 0.1% 874.6 0.1% 4,396.3 0.5% 600.0 0.1%

74,023.7 8.8% 78,445.8 8.9% 88,950.8 9.6% 127,881.4 13.1% 201,060.5 20.0%

395,670.6 47.2% 405,315.5 45.9% 420,174.0 45.4% 408,877.9 41.9% 359,953.0 35.9%

150,606.9 18.0% 159,157.2 18.0% 175,208.4 18.9% 192,103.9 19.7% 194,065.8 19.3%

28,178.7 3.4% 28,079.0 3.2% 29,496.0 3.2% 33,136.3 3.4% 35,158.2 3.5%

46,712.6 5.6% 62,192.8 7.0% 76,921.3 8.3% 82,057.4 8.4% 81,608.5 8.1%

33,617.2 4.0% 30,335.6 3.4% 26,638.3 2.9% 22,856.7 2.3% 20,032.1 2.0%

15,734.7 1.9% 18,300.0 2.1% 20,523.4 2.2% 15,993.8 1.6% 19,443.6 1.9%

838,903.7 100.0% 883,858.6 100.0% 926,183.9 100.0% 974,807.0 100.0% 1,002,947.9 100.0%

21,454.3 2.1% 4,220.2 0.4% 4,011.7 0.4% 3,600.7 0.3% 3,356.8 0.3%

54,711.0 5.2% 53,301.0 4.9% 49,027.4 4.5% 46,392.5 4.2% 45,502.8 4.1%

3,056.6 0.3% 0.5 0.0% 1.0 0.0% 1.0 0.0% 0.5 0.0%

274,606.7 26.3% 364,415.5 33.8% 427,342.9 39.4% 459,028.1 41.8% 477,549.7 43.0%

327,609.5 31.4% 271,997.1 25.2% 221,961.8 20.5% 204,535.7 18.6% 186,030.5 16.7%

200,403.0 19.2% 214,957.7 19.9% 209,064.3 19.3% 208,971.4 19.0% 209,150.0 18.8%

35,377.2 3.4% 35,131.0 3.3% 32,453.2 3.0% 31,760.6 2.9% 30,995.0 2.8%

97,734.7 9.4% 110,686.3 10.3% 116,794.8 10.8% 119,639.2 10.9% 134,419.8 12.1%

15,840.6 1.5% 12,373.2 1.1% 12,527.3 1.2% 12,382.3 1.1% 12,963.7 1.2%

12,823.1 1.2% 12,065.1 1.1% 10,508.6 1.0% 10,814.2 1.0% 10,965.3 1.0%

1,043,616.7 100.0% 1,079,147.6 100.0% 1,083,693.0 100.0% 1,097,125.7 100.0% 1,110,934.1 100.0%

HoldersShare Share Share Share Share

End of FY2013End of FY2012End of FY2011End of FY2010End of FY2009

HoldersShare Share Share Share Share

End of FY2018(QE)

End of FY2017End of FY2016End of FY2015End of FY2014

Public Pension

Fiscal Loan Fund

Bank of Japan

Banks, etc.

Pension Funds

Overseas

Households

Others

Total

General Government (ex Public Pension)

Life and Non-lifeInsurance, etc.

Public Pension

Fiscal Loan Fund

Bank of Japan

Banks, etc.

Pension Funds

Overseas

Households

Others

Total

General Government (ex Public Pension)

Life and Non-lifeInsurance, etc.

Page 11: Supplement Fiscal Conditions and Debt Outstandings · Note 1: The consumption tax rate (central and local combined) is assumed to be raised to 10% on October 1, 2019, along with implementation

ⅢⅢ Appendices

Supplement Fiscal C

onditions and Debt O

utstandings

182

(Reference) Share

(Reference) Outstanding Amount

2 3 2 2 2 2 0 0 0 0

9 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 4 4

0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0

9 910

1320 26 34

39 42 43

47 4645

4236

3125

20 19 17

18 18 19 20 19 19 20 19 19 19

3 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 3

6 7 8 8 8 9 10 11 11 124 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 12 2 2 2 2

1 1 1 1 1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

(%)

16 28 17 18 24 21 4 4 4 3

77 74 70 70 67 55 53 49 46 46

1 1 1 4 1 3 0 0 0 0

74 78 89128

201 275364

427459 478

396 405 420409

360328

272222 205 186

151159 175

192194

200215 209 209 209

2828

2933

3535

35 32 32 31

4762

7782

8298

111 117 120 134

3430

27

2320

1612 13 12 13

1618

2116

1913

12 11 11 11

End of FY2009

End ofFY2010

End ofFY2011

End ofFY2012

End ofFY2013

End ofFY2014

End ofFY2015

End ofFY2016

End ofFY2017

End of2018

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Others

Households

Overseas

Pension Funds

Life and No-life insurance, etc.

Banks, etc.

Bank of Japan

Fiscal Loan Fund

Public Pension

General Government(excl. Public Pension)

Others

Households

Overseas

Pension Funds

Life and No-life insurance, etc.

Banks, etc.

Bank of Japan

Fiscal Loan Fund

Public Pension

General Government(excl. Public Pension)

End of FY2009

End ofFY2010

End ofFY2011

End ofFY2012

End ofFY2013

End ofFY2014

End ofFY2015

End ofFY2016

End ofFY2017

End of2018

( trillion yen)

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Ⅲ AppendicesSupplem

ent Fiscal Conditions and D

ebt Outstandings

183

(Unit: million yen)

FY2017(as of March 31, 2018)

FY2016(as of March 31, 2017)

FY2017 (as of March 31, 2018)

FY2016(as of March 31, 2017)

<Liabilities><Assets>

10,343,737 10,515,848

Reserves Claims 289,069 265,380

Accrued Liabilities 1,250,770 1,220,788

Money in Custody 906,814 1,030,143

Deferred Revenues 4,062 9,289

Allowance for Bonus Payment 316,794 325,560

Financing Bills 84,660,527 76,987,793

Government Bonds 943,279,091 966,898,628

Borrowings

Money on Deposit 6,546,038 6,505,949

Liability Reserves 9,698,894 9,135,615

Other Liabilities 7,387,103 7,643,198

  Total Liabilities 1,221,623,389 1,238,875,311

<Difference Between Assets and Liabilities>

Cash and Deposits 55,239,666 47,860,071

Securities

Inventories

Accounts Receivable 5,611,738 5,458,548

Accrued Income 687,191 716,505

Prepaid Expenses 1,914,748 5,474,106

Loans

Money in Trust 109,111,900 111,464,931

Other Credits 3,221,957 3,264,871

National Property 29,855,770 30,305,869

Land

Unfilled Timber 2,943,594 2,997,650

Buildings

Structures

Machinery and Equipment

Ships

Aircraft

Construction in Progress 1,218,452 1,281,817

Property for Public Use (Land) 39,658,807 39,841,969

Property for Public Use (Facilities) 109,624,055 110,060,581

Construction in Progress

Commodities

Other Tangible Assets 26,055 24,826

Intangible Fixed Assets 264,985 281,123

Investments

Total Assets 672,741,915 670,513,522

Note 1: Cash and Deposits (47.9 trillion yen at the end of FY2017) take into account receipts and disbursements of cash during the “accounting adjustment term” (As of the end of FY2017, the actual balance of government deposits in the Treasury was 15.1 trillion yen and foreign currency deposits was 12.6 trillion yen). Note 2: Assets held by the government is largely to use for public purposes directly such as public property, and basically not to sell or change into cash. Note 3: Government bonds in the liabilities (966.9 trillion yen at the end of FY2017) include government bond balance such as in Special Account for Fiscal Investment and Loan Program besides general bonds (861.2 trillion yen) that will basically be the future burden on public, and cancel out bonds internally held by the government.

(16) Balance Sheet of Japanese Government (General Account and Special Accounts) (as of the end of FY2017)

Accrued Insurance Premiums(Accrued Reinsurance Premiums)

Deposit Reserved forthe Public PensionAllowance for RetirementBenefits

Difference Between Assets and LiabilitiesTotal Liabilities and Difference Between Assets and Liabilities

Prepaid Insurance Premiums(Prepaid Reinsurance Premiums)

119,868,932 118,517,982

4,285,405 4,299,555

4,736,879 4,735,921

115,550,240 112,809,764

Allowance for Doubtful ▲1,764,461 ▲1,623,059

Tangible Fixed Assets 181,560,281 182,452,620

17,430,133 17,740,516

3,383,429 3,430,462

2,733,065 2,658,601

0 0

1,431,465 1,482,320

715,630 714,501

Public Property 149,714,932 150,267,144

432,070 364,592

1,963,522 1,854,779

72,452,450 74,800,579

Accounts Payable

Advance Received 53,264 49,417

130,116 36,413

30,764,461 31,443,449

118,776,820 120,110,492

7,215,820 6,697,342

▲548,881,473 ▲568,361,788

672,741,915 670,513,522

Page 13: Supplement Fiscal Conditions and Debt Outstandings · Note 1: The consumption tax rate (central and local combined) is assumed to be raised to 10% on October 1, 2019, along with implementation

ⅢⅢ Appendices

Supplement Fiscal C

onditions and Debt O

utstandings

184

(17) Financial Assets and Liabilities of General Government (Central Government, Local Government and Social Security fund) (End of Dec, 2018 (Preliminary Figures))(Unit: billion yen)

General Government

Social Security funds Local Governments Central Government

LiabilitiesAssetsLiabilitiesAssetsLiabilitiesAssetsLiabilitiesAssets

(Source) Bank of Japan “Flow of Funds”

Currency and deposits

Currency

Government deposits

Transferable deposits

Time and savings deposits

Certificates of deposits

Foreign currency deposits

Deposits with the Fiscal Loan Fund

Loans

Call loans and bills

Loans by private financial institutions

Loans by public financial institutions

Loans by the nonfinancial sector

Debt securities

Treasury discount bills

Local government securities

Public corporation securities

Bank debentures

Industrial securities

External securities issued by residents

Commercial paper

Trust beneficiary rights

Structured-financing instruments

Equity and investment fund shares

Equity

Listed shares

Unlisted shares

Other equity

Forward-type instruments

Deposits money

Trade credits and foreign trade credits

Accounts receivable/payable

Outward investment in securities

Other external claims and debts

Of which: gold and SDRs etc.

Others

Total

85,608.1

0.8

16,239.4

24,770.7

17,375.1

14,456.0

12,766.1

21,205.3

31,131.1

6,566.6

24,480.5

84.0

80,808.6

2.3

48,857.3

11,393.4

12,301.1

489.2

7,336.2

4.8

0.4

420.2

3.7

117,556.4

117,508.5

45,831.0

14,141.8

57,535.7

47.9

0.3

0.3

8,560.3

867.8

12,135.5

188,926.3

15,182.5

3,464.6

3,365.6

565,347.8

156,616.9

61,064.8

61,064.8

89,135.8

4,407.1

31.9

1,977.3

1,081,628.3

97,835.1

908,732.6

74,412.5

45.7

602.4

14,230.2

14,230.2

0.0

14,230.2

69.2

69.2

4,742.0

17,437.6

14,784.8

2,303.0

1,886.6

12,635.1

-739,099.3

565,347.8

31,427.2

0.7

16,239.4

1,743.2

518.0

367.2

12,558.7

562.7

11,856.4

11,856.4

0.0

855.3

2.3

314.4

147.0

191.3

49.9

138.6

11.8

39,303.4

39,303.4

310.0

9,535.3

29,458.1

0.0

0.3

0.3

2,732.4

749.0

3,989.9

116,851.1

15,182.5

3,464.6

86.4

223,596.6

53,729.6

26,600.7

26,600.7

24,509.4

2,619.5

0.0

1,006,613.4

97,835.1

908,732.6

45.7

12,845.0

12,845.0

0.0

12,845.0

69.2

69.2

43.7

1,991.6

12,105.3

2,303.0

1,886.6

12,635.1

-878,739.3

223,596.6

41,975.9

0.1

17,315.3

11,445.8

13,007.3

207.4

7,035.0

6,951.0

84.0

10,299.1

0.0

2,039.5

3,748.7

4,303.4

205.2

0.0

2.3

31,731.6

31,709.6

377.3

4,604.7

26,727.6

22.0

1.0

118.8

569.7

1,058.3

92,789.4

99,810.3

34,082.2

34,082.2

63,140.3

578.6

31.9

1,977.3

75,014.9

74,412.5

602.4

1,276.6

1,276.6

1,276.6

13.6

7,812.7

99.7

-91,238.4

92,789.4

12,205.0

0.0

5,712.2

5,411.3

1,081.5

20,642.6

12,239.7

6,566.6

5,673.1

0.0

69,654.2

0.0

46,503.4

7,497.7

7,806.4

234.1

7,197.6

4.8

0.4

406.1

3.7

46,521.4

46,495.5

45,143.7

1.8

1,350.0

25.9

5,826.9

7,575.9

72,075.2

2,220.9

248,961.8

3,077.0

381.9

381.9

1,486.1

1,209.0

0.0

108.6

108.6

108.6

4,684.7

7,633.3

2,579.8

230,878.4

248,961.8

Installment credit (not included in consumer credit)Repurchase agreements and securities lending transactions

Central government securities and FILP bonds

Loans to Companies and governments

Investment trust beneficiary certificates

Financial derivatives and employee stock options

Difference between financial assets and liabilities (Assets and Liabilities)

Page 14: Supplement Fiscal Conditions and Debt Outstandings · Note 1: The consumption tax rate (central and local combined) is assumed to be raised to 10% on October 1, 2019, along with implementation

Ⅲ AppendicesSupplem

ent Fiscal Conditions and D

ebt Outstandings

185

(18) International Comparison of General Government Financial Balance to GDP

▲ 15

▲ 10

▲ 5

0

5

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(%)

Note 1: Figures represent the general government-based data (including the central/local governments and the social security funds), except for Japan and the U.S. where the figures of the social security funds are excluded.

Note 2: Figures for Japan are adjusted to exclude special factors.(Source) Based on the data included in “Economic Outlook 104” issued by the OECD in November 2018 and not reflecting the data for the budget for FY2019

Japan

Canada

France

Germany

United KingdomUnited States

Italy

Dec. 2019Japan

United StatesUnited Kingdom

GermanyFrance

ItalyCanada

▲ 3.4▲ 7.1▲ 1.6

1.1▲ 2.9▲ 2.5▲ 0.5

Page 15: Supplement Fiscal Conditions and Debt Outstandings · Note 1: The consumption tax rate (central and local combined) is assumed to be raised to 10% on October 1, 2019, along with implementation

ⅢⅢ Appendices

Supplement Fiscal C

onditions and Debt O

utstandings

186

(19) International Comparison of General Government Gross Debt to GDP

(20) International Comparison of General Government Net Debt to GDP

Note: Figures represent the general government-based data (including the central/local governments and the social security funds).(Source) IMF “World Economic Outlook Database” (April 2019)

Note: Figures represent the general government-based data (including the central/local governments and the social security funds).(Source) IMF “World Economic Outlook Database” (April 2019)

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

210

240

270(%)

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

(%)

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Italy

Apr. 2019Japan 238%

United States 107%United Kingdom 86%

Germany 57%France 99%

Italy 133%Canada 88%

United States

Japan

FranceCanadaUnited Kingdom

Germany

Apr. 2019Japan 154%

United States 83%United Kingdom 76%

Germany 39%France 88%

Italy 122%Canada 27%

Italy

United States

Japan

France

Canada

United Kingdom

Germany

Page 16: Supplement Fiscal Conditions and Debt Outstandings · Note 1: The consumption tax rate (central and local combined) is assumed to be raised to 10% on October 1, 2019, along with implementation

Ⅲ AppendicesSupplem

ent Fiscal Conditions and D

ebt Outstandings

187

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