Sunday Times /Behaviour & Attitudesbanda.ie/wp-content/uploads/7214Sunday-Times-PreElection-Poll2.pdf · 12th Dec, 2011 20th Feb 2012 f/w : 15th – 20th Feb. 2012 17th Apr, 2012

Sunday Times /Behaviour & Attitudes

16th February 2016 Opinion Poll Prepared for

Prepared by Ian McShane

J.7214

2

Technical Appendix

3

Technical Appendix

● The results of this opinion poll are based upon a representative sample of 1026 eligible Irish voters aged 18 years +.

● As such, the results can be deemed to be accurate to within plus or minus 3.1 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.

● Fieldwork was conducted on an in-home, face-to-face basis over the period 15th and 16th February, 2016.

● The sample was stratified across all constituencies at 100 locations in the country with individuals selected for interview by way of Demographic Quotas (age, gender, socio-economic status) in line with Central Statistics Office (CSO) and market research industry population estimates.

4

Technical Appendix

● The subsequent survey results are weighted to reflect the known demographic profile of Irish adults, utilising the most recently published census population estimates from the Central Statistics Office (CSO).

● Party support levels are subsequently realigned in accordance with a technical adjustment factor, designed to smooth the effects of extreme highs and lows in support levels for individual parties as measured at a single point in time, and taking variable election day turnout levels into account.

● All aspects of the survey, including the Party Support adjustment factor, are implemented in accordance with the technical and ethical guidelines set down by the Association of Irish Market Research Organisations (AIMRO) and the European Society of Opinion & Market Research (ESOMAR).

5

Charted Summary

6

Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Government and Party Leader Satisfaction Levels

12th Feb

2011 f/w: 31st Jan –

12th Feb, 2011

24th Aug, 2011 f/w : 16th

– 24th Aug, 2011

2nd Oct, 2011 f/w : 20th Sept

– 2nd Oct, 2011

18th Oct, 2011 f/w : 16th

– 18th Oct, 2011

12th Dec. 2011 f/w : 7th-12th Dec, 2011

20th Feb

2012 f/w : 15th

– 20th Feb. 2012

17th Apr, 2012 f/w : 11th

– 17th Apr. 2012

23rd May 2012 f/w: 18th

– 23rd May, 2012

9th Sept

. 2012 f/w: 4th -9th Sept 2012

13th Nov 2012 f/w: 1st- 13th Nov 2012

21st Jan

2013 f/w: 15th

– 21st Jan. 2013

26th Mar 2013 f/w: 11th -26th Mar. 2013

24th Jun

2013 f/w: 11th –

24th June 2013

17th Sept 2013 f/w 10th Sept

– 17th Sept 2013

15th Dec 2013 f/w 3rd – 15th Dec 2013

19th Feb

2014 f/w: 11th –

19th Feb

2014

16th Apr

2014 f/w: 6th – 16th Apr

2014

13th Aug 2014 f/w: 4th – 13th Aug 2014

22nd Oct. f/w: 14th –

22nd Oct. 2014

21st Dec f/w: 9th – 17th Dec 2014

11th Mar f/w: 2nd Mar –

11th Mar 2015

** 11th May f/w: 1st – 11th May 2015

** 15th June f/w: 5th – 15th June 2015

** 14th July f/w: 4th – 14th July 2015

** 12th Aug f/w: 2nd – 12th Aug 2015

** 14th Oct f/w 5th – 14th Oct

2015

** 11th Nov f/w 30th Oct –

11th Nov 2015

** 9th Dec f/w 30th Nov – 9th Dec 2015

** 13th Jan f/w 4th

Jan- 13thJan

2016

** 2nd Feb f/w 1st – 2nd Feb

2016

** 16th Feb f/w 15th –

16thFeb

2016

The Government

5% 42% 34% 36% 26% 26% 29% 31% 24% 26% 22% 25% 24% 24% 35% 31% 28% 27% 29% 29% 35% 30% 28% 29% 30% 33% 28% 35% 33% 34% 33%

Micheál Martin

43% 40% 31% 36% 40% 33% 34% 41% 34% 42% 48% 44% 43% 37% 43% 43% 45% 39% 37% 39% 38% 35% 40% 42% 39% 41% 39% 40% 41% 39% 44%

Enda Kenny

40% 62% 51% 58% 44% 41% 47% 42% 38% 41% 39% 39% 37% 34% 44% 41% 40% 35% 29% 28% 32% 29% 28% 28% 32% 33% 31% 35% 31% 31% 31%

Eamon Gilmore/ Joan Burton

55% 52% 43% 46% 35% 34% 37% 32% 34% 29% 26% 29% 26% 26% 32% 31% 37% *

45%

41% 34% 37% 35% 36% 34% 37% 36% 34% 39% 34% 34% 30%

Gerry Adams

40% 48% 50% 50% 48% 46% 43% 42% 39% 40% 43% 45% 43% 41% 33% 39% 48% 47% 40% 34% 37% 33% 32% 32% 34% 34% 36% 35% 32% 36% 32%

Eamon Ryan

- 34% 30% 30% 30% 25% 29% 29% 27% 27% 30% 29% 30% 30% 30% 31% 33% 37% 33% 33% 33% 32% 32% 29% 33% 33% 33% 35% 32% 37% 36%

Q.2 Q.3

Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the manner in which the Government is running the country? Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way (…..) is doing his/her job as (…….)?

*Inclusion of Joan Burton as Tánaiste ** Face-to-face surveying employed

7

Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Core Party Support Levels

12th Feb. 2011

f/w: 31st Jan –

12th Feb, 2011

24th Aug, 2011 f/w:

16th – 24th Aug, 2011

2nd Oct, 2011

f/w: 20th Sept – 2nd Oct, 2011

18th Oct, 2011 f/w: 16th –

18th Oct, 2011

12th Dec. 2011 f/w : 7th-12th Dec, 2011

20th Feb. 2012 f/w: 15th –

20th Feb. 2012

17th Apr, 2012 f/w: 11th –

17th Apr. 2012

23rd May 2012 f/w: 18th –

23rd May, 2012

9th Sept

. 2012 f/w: 4th -9th Sept 2012

13th Nov 2012 f/w: 1st- 13th Nov 2012

21st Jan

2013 f/w: 15th –

21st

Jan. 2013

26th Mar 2013 f/w: 11th -26th Mar. 2013

24th Jun

2013 f/w: 11th –

24th June 2013


– 17th Sept 2013

15th Dec 2013 f/w 3rd – 15th Dec 2013

19th Feb

2014 f/w: 11th –

19th Feb

2014

16th Apr

2014 f/w: 6th – 16th Apr

2014

15th May 2014 f/w: 3rd – 15th May 2014

13th Aug 2014 f/w: 4th – 13th Aug 2014


22nd Oct. 2014



11th Mar 2015

* 11th May f/w: 1st – 11th May 2015



** 12th Aug f/w: 2nd – 12th Aug 2015


2015


11th Nov 2015


** 13th Jan f/w 4th

Jan- 13thJan

2016


2016


16thFeb

2016

Fianna Fáil

11% 12% 11% 11% 15% 11% 12% 12% 12% 16% 19% 19% 19% 15% 19% 16% 17% 16% 15% 14% 14% 14% 12% 17% 15% 16% 15% 14% 15% 15% 16% 19%

Fine Gael 26% 35% 26% 27% 22% 23% 22% 24% 23% 23% 17% 19% 19% 19% 21% 22% 18% 20% 18% 17% 17% 19% 19% 15% 18% 19% 18% 18% 20% 20% 21% 24%

Labour 17% 9% 10% 11% 8% 7% 7% 8% 8% 7% 7% 4% 5% 6% 5% 5% 6% 5% 7% 4% 4% 5% 5% 4% 5% 4% 5% 5% 5% 4% 6% 4%

Sinn Féin 10% 10% 12% 14% 15% 18% 14% 17% 13% 12% 13% 13% 13% 14% 11% 16% 16% 15% 22% 17% 20% 19% 17% 16% 15% 15% 16% 17% 16% 14% 16% 14%

Green Party

1% 2% 3% 1% 1% 1% 3% 1% 2% 1% 2% 2% 2% 3% 2% 3% 2% 1% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2%

Independents/Others

10% 10% 10% 9% 12% 11% 12% 10% 12% 11% 9% 15% 12% 14% 13% 14% 18% 16% 17% 21% 23% 17% 21% 19% 24% 19% 20% 19% 16% 19% 19% 22%

Undecided 25% 22% 28% 27% 27% 30% 30% 28% 30% 29% 33% 27% 29% 30% 28% 24% 24% 25% 19% 24% 22% 24% 25% 28% 23% 26% 23% 26% 27% 27% 19% 17%

Q.7 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?

* Face-to-face surveying employed

8

Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Party Support Levels (Excluding Undecideds - Unadjusted)

12th Feb, 2011 f/w: 31st

Jan – 12th Feb, 2011

General Election

Result

25th Feb

24th Aug, 2011 f/w: 16th –

24th Aug, 2011

2nd Oct, 2011 f/w: 20th Sept – 2nd Oct, 2011

18th Oct, 2011 f/w: 16th –

18th Oct, 2011

12th Dec. 2011 f/w: 7th-12th Dec, 2011

20th Feb, 2012 f/w: 15th –

20th Feb. 2012

17th Apr, 2012 f/w: 11th –

17th Apr. 2012

23rd May 2012 f/w: 18th –

23rd May, 2012

9th Sept

. 2012 f/w: 4th -9th

Sept 2012

13th Nov 2012 f/w: 1st- 13th Nov 2012

21st Jan

2013 f/w:15th

– 21st Jan. 2013

26th Mar 2013 f/w: 11th

-26th Mar. 2013

24th Jun

2013 f/w: 11th –

24th June 2013


– 17th Sept 2013

15th Dec 2013 f/w

3rd – 15th Dec 2013

19th Feb

2014 f/w: 11th –

19th Feb

2014

16th Apr

2014 f/w: 6th – 16th Apr

2014

15th May 2014 f/w: 3rd – 15th May 2014

13th Aug 2014 f/w: 4th – 13th Aug 2014


22nd Oct. 2014



11th Mar 2015




** 12th Aug f/w: 2nd – 12th Aug 2015

** 14th Oct f/w 5th – 14th Oct 2015


11th Nov 2015


** 13th Jan f/w 4th

Jan- 13thJan 2016

** 2nd Feb f/w 1st – 2nd Feb 2016


16thFeb 2016

Fianna Fáil 15% 17% 15% 15% 15% 20% 16% 17% 17% 18% 23% 28% 27% 27% 21% 27% 21% 22% 22% 18% 19% 17% 19% 15% 24% 19% 22% 20% 19% 21% 20% 20% 23%

Fine Gael 34% 36% 44% 36% 37% 30% 32% 32% 33% 33% 32% 26% 26% 26% 27% 29% 28% 23% 27% 22% 23% 21% 25% 25% 21% 24% 25% 24% 25% 27% 28% 27% 28%

Labour 23% 19% 12% 14% 15% 11% 10% 10% 11% 11% 10% 10% 6% 7% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 9% 5% 5% 7% 7% 6% 7% 5% 7% 7% 7% 5% 7% 4%

Sinn Féin 14% 10% 13% 17% 19% 21% 25% 20% 23% 19% 17% 20% 17% 19% 20% 15% 21% 21% 20% 27% 23% 25% 25% 22% 22% 20% 21% 21% 23% 21% 19% 20% 16%

Green Party 2% 2% 2% 4% 1% 3% 2% 5% 1% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 4% 3% 4% 3% 2% 2% 3% 1% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 3% 2% 2% 2%

Independent/ Others

14% 16% 12% 13% 13% 15% 15% 17% 14% 17% 16% 14% 21% 17% 20% 19% 18% 23% 22% 21% 28% 30% 22% 28% 27% 30% 26% 26% 25% 22% 26% 24% 26%



9

Party Support Adjustment Factor: Technical Note

● Predicting election results on the basis of poll data is not an exact science. All the evidence shows that support for individual parties can swing dramatically in the period between elections- very often outside the bounds of historic election results.

● What to do in these circumstances? Most polling companies in Britain and Ireland publish their raw survey results as an index of fluctuations in the emotional mood of voters. They also build in an adjustment based on a number of factors. Where we have reports of how people voted in the last general election as well as how they intend to vote in the next one we can use these data to model the likely level of swing from the last election results.

● We then add back in the forecasts of voters who have not voted last time or do not answer that particular question.

● Finally we take into account each individuals stated likelihood of voting in a forthcoming General Election.

● This is the basis of the adjusted voting forecast in Behaviour & Attitudes polls.

10

Party Support Levels (Excluding Undecided - Adjusted)

● Adjusted figures based on:

All who state they would definitely vote

Weighting of those respondents who give a definite answer as to who they would vote for in a general election and who they voted for in the last election, a quarter of the way between stated voting intention and the result of the last election.

Making no adjustment to stated voting intention of those who do not indicate how they voted in last election.

2nd Oct, 2011 f/w: 20th Sept – 2nd Oct, 2011

18th Oct, 2011 f/w: 16th –

18th Oct, 2011

12th Dec. 2011 f/w : 7th-12th Dec, 2011

20th Feb. 2012 f/w: 15th –

20th Feb. 2012

17th Apr, 2012 f/w: 11th –

17th Apr. 2012

23rd May 2012 f/w: 18th –

23rd May, 2012

9th Sept. 2012 f/w: 4th -9th Sept 2012

13th Nov 2012 f/w: 1st- 13th Nov 2012

21st Jan

2013 f/w: 15th –

21st

Jan. 2013

26th Mar 2013 f/w: 11th -26th Mar. 2013

24th Jun

2013 f/w: 11th –

24th June 2013


– 17th Sept 2013

15th Dec 2013 f/w 3rd – 15th Dec 2013

19th Feb

2014 f/w: 11th –

19th Feb

2014

16th Apr

2014 f/w: 6th – 16th Apr

2014

15th May 2014 f/w: 3rd – 15th May 2014

13th Aug 2014 f/w: 4th – 13th Aug 2014


22nd Oct. 2014



11th Mar 2015




** 12th Aug f/w: 2nd – 12th Aug 2015


2015

** 11th Nov f/w 30th

Oct – 11th Nov 2015


** 13th Jan f/w 4th

Jan- 13th Jan

2016


2016


16thFeb

2016

Fianna Fáil

16% 14% 18% 16% 15% 16% 16% 22% 24% 23% 24% 21% 21% 19% 20% 19% 18% 18% 18% 18% 17% 21% 18% 20% 19% 20% 19% 20% 20% 22%

Fine Gael

34% 35% 29% 33% 33% 33% 31% 30% 26% 27% 27% 25% 30% 30% 21% 26% 24% 25% 24% 27% 27% 24% 24% 27% 24% 26% 31% 31% 28% 30%

Labour 16% 16% 12% 13% 14% 14% 14% 12% 11% 7% 7% 11% 11% 9% 9% 7% 14% 9% 5% 9% 8% 9% 8% 6% 8% 7% 8% 6% 8% 4%

Sinn Féin

14% 17% 19% 20% 16% 17% 18% 14% 19% 15% 16% 18% 15% 18% 20% 21% 19% 19% 22% 19% 20% 19% 17% 19% 19% 21% 17% 16% 17% 15%

Green Party

3% 1% 3% 2% 5% 2% 2% 3% 3% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 2% 2% 3% 1% 3% 3% 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% 3% 2% 2% 3%

Indepen

dents/ Others

17% 16% 18% 16% 18% 18% 19% 19% 18% 25% 23% 23% 21% 21% 26% 24% 22% 25% 29% 23% 26% 26% 31% 26% 28% 25% 21% 24% 24% 27%



11

Other Group or Independents most likely to give first preference vote to (Adjusted) – 16th February, 2016

Q.8 And to which one of these groupings or types of Independents would you give your first preference vote?

30

22

15

4

10

5

3

5

3

3

1

0

Fine Gael

Fianna Fail

Sinn Fein

Labour Party

Other Independent candidate

Anti-Austerity Alliance / People Before ProfitAlliance

Green Party

Independent Alliance

RENUA Ireland

Social Democrats

Workers Party

Socialist Party

%

12

Other Group or Independents most likely to give first preference vote to (Adjusted) - Comparison

27

20 19

6

2

4 4

2 2 1 1

12

24

19 19

8

1

5 5

1 2 2

1

12

26

20 21

7

1 2

8

0 1 1 1

12

31

19

17

8

4

2

4

1 1 0

1

11

31

20

16

6

3 3 2 2 2

1 1

12

28

20

17

8

3 4

3

1 2

0

4

10

30

22

15

4 3

5 5

1

3

0

3

10

%

Fine Gael Fianna Fail Sinn Fein Labour Party

Green Party

Indepen dent

Alliance

Anti-Austerity Alliance/ People Before Profit

Workers Party

RENUA Ireland

Socialist Party

Social Demo crats

Other Indepen

dent candidate

Q.8 And to which one of these groupings or types of Independents would you give your first preference vote?

Aug 2015

Oct 2015

Nov 2015

Dec 2015

Jan 2016

2nd Feb 2016

16th Feb 2016

13

Coalition Preferences Base : All voters

Q.9 Since 1989, every Irish Government has been a coalition. Given current party strength, this seems likely in the future. Which of the following coalitions would you like to see following the next General Election?

17

16

4

9

9

9

8

8

19

2

Fine Gael & Fianna Fáil Other

Fine Gael & Labour

Sinn Féin, Labour, and other parties or

independents Fine Gael & Sinn Féin

Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin

Don’t know

Would not vote

Fianna Fáil, Labour and other parties or independents

Fine Gael, Labour and other parties or independents

14

Coalition Preferences 16th Feb vs 13th January 2016 Base : All voters


13th Jan f/w

4th Jan- 13th Jan

2016

16th Feb f/w

15th – 16th Feb 2016

% %

Fine Gael and Labour 17 17

Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil 13 16

Fine Gael and Sinn Féin 3 4

Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil 11 9

Fianna Fail, Labour and other parties or independents n/a 9

Fine Gael, Labour and other parties or independents 9 9

Sinn Féin, Labour, and other parties or independents 8 8

Other 9 8

Don’t know 25 19

Would not vote 6 2

15

Coalition Preferences x Demographics – February 2016 Base : All voters

Base Total Gender Age Social Class Region Area

Male Female -34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin Lein-ster

Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Unweighted 1026 508 518 310 387 329 463 505 58 287 280 275 184 681 345

% % % % % % % % % % % % % % %

Fine Gael and Labour 17 18 17 10 17 25 21 12 35 19 16 15 18 17 17

Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil 16 17 15 11 16 21 19 14 18 13 17 16 20 14 19

Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin 9 11 7 12 10 6 7 11 9 4 11 13 8 8 11

Fianna Fail, Labour and other parties or independents

9 7 11 8 8 12 8 11 5 11 7 10 9 10 7


9 7 10 7 10 8 11 7 6 14 7 7 6 10 7

Sinn Féin, Labour, and other parties or independents

8 8 8 12 7 5 5 11 2 8 8 9 7 9 6

Fine Gael and Sinn Féin 4 5 3 7 3 2 3 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 4

Other 8 8 7 6 9 8 8 8 2 6 9 9 5 9 6

Don’t know 19 16 21 27 18 12 17 21 14 19 18 17 22 17 21

Would not vote 2 1 2 2 2 1 1 2 4 1 3 0 1 1 2


16

Coalition Preferences x Party Support Base : All voters

Total Party Support

Fianna Fail

Fine Gael Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein Independent / Other

Don't Know / Would

not

Unweighted 1026 194 252 36 20 135 223 166

% % % % % % % %

Fine Gael and Labour 17 2 53 43 16 - 7 6

Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil 16 29 20 10 - 3 12 14

Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin 9 14 1 - 8 34 6 2


9 29 2 10 15 0 10 3


9 2 12 14 10 0 19 3


8 1 1 8 8 29 11 3

Fine Gael and Sinn Féin 4 2 4 - 3 11 3 2

Other 8 8 3 4 21 8 13 6

Don’t know 19 13 5 11 19 13 20 52

Would not vote 2 - - - - - 0 9


17

Best Performing Party Leader Base : All voters

Q.10 Which party leader has impressed you most during the election campaign so far?

13

25

13

4

1

5 4

35 %

Enda Kenny, Fine Gael

Micheal Martin, Fianna

Fail

Gerry Adams, Sinn Fein

Joan Burton, Labour Party

Eamon Ryan, Green Party

Lucinda Creighton,

Renua Other None

18





Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Unweighted 1026 508 518 310 387 329 463 505 58 287 280 275 184 681 345

% % % % % % % % % % % % % % %

Micheal Martin, Fianna Fail

25 28 22 20 21 34 27 24 19 20 22 32 26 24 26

Enda Kenny, Fine Gael 13 14 13 9 14 16 15 12 20 14 12 11 18 14 13

Gerry Adams, Sinn Fein 13 16 10 18 13 8 9 16 16 11 16 12 13 13 13

Lucinda Creighton, Renua 5 5 6 4 5 6 6 5 3 6 6 4 5 5 6

Joan Burton, Labour Party 4 2 6 4 3 5 3 4 8 7 4 4 1 5 3

Eamon Ryan, Green Party 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 - 2 0 1 2 1 1

Other 4 3 4 3 4 3 5 3 - 7 2 4 1 5 1

None 35 31 38 40 37 26 34 36 34 35 37 34 33 33 37

19



Total Party Support

Fianna Fail

Fine Gael Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein Independent / Other

Don't Know / Would

not

Unweighted 1026 194 252 36 20 135 223 166

% % % % % % % %

Micheál Martin, Fianna Fáil 25 66 18 9 22 12 18 12

Enda Kenny, Fine Gael 13 8 40 12 10 - 8 2

Gerry Adams, Sinn Féin 13 4 2 - 4 65 8 5

Lucinda Creighton, Renua 5 1 6 1 19 1 12 3

Joan Burton, Labour Party 4 2 6 22 - 1 3 4

Eamon Ryan, Green Party 1 - 0 6 10 - 3 1

Other 4 0 4 3 6 3 6 5

None 35 19 24 46 30 18 43 69

20

Best Performing Party Leader: Pre versus Post RTÉ TV Debate Base : All voters


Pre RTÉ TV Debate

Post RTÉ TV Debate

Total

Base: 605 421 1026

% % %

Micheál Martin, Fianna Fáil 26 24 25

Enda Kenny, Fine Gael 14 13 13

Gerry Adams, Sinn Féin 13 12 13

Joan Burton, Labour Party 5 3 4

Lucinda Creighton, Renua 3 9 5

Eamon Ryan, Green Party 1 2 1

Other 2 7 4

None 37 31 35

21

Commentary

22

Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll Series

Background

Today’s is the final Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Poll before the General Election next Friday.

Fieldwork for the survey was conducted over the period Monday, 15th and Tuesday, 16th of February last. Interviewing was split roughly 60:40 before the RTÉ TV Leaders Debate on the evening of Monday, 15th and after that debate.

All interviewing was, of course, carried out after the TV3 Leaders Debate which was held on Thursday, 11th February. According to Nielsen Ireland TV ratings, the TV3 debate attracted a total audience of over 800,000 people, with the RTÉ debate reaching over 1 million people in total.

These are huge viewing figures, and illustrate how important each leader’s performance will have been in influencing floating voters in particular in the final weeks of the campaign.

Certainly, none of the parties had set the world alight with its campaign prior to the poll being conducted.

Fine Gael, for example, had insisted on adhering to its strategy of repeatedly reminding the public of the dangers of voting for candidates or parties other than its own or Labour’s.

23


Background

There are two weaknesses in this strategy:

(i) The party has thus far failed to articulate precisely how it intends to ‘Keep the Recovery Going’.

(ii) It runs the risk of patronising the electorate, which has suffered enormously over the last five years of austerity, implemented by a Fine Gael Government.

The Labour Party meanwhile finds itself stuck between a rock and a hard place. Its messaging must chime with that of Fine Gael on matters to do with the economy, leaving it with no wriggle room to present radical solutions as to how to unwind the most painful of the Government imposed austerity measures.

Fianna Fáil’s strategy has been steady if uninspiring, albeit with its individual spokespersons doing a reasonable job arguing its policies on the airwaves.

Sinn Féin’s campaign has also failed to take off, and its failure to put forward its newer generation of bright, articulate TDs to represent the party’s position is perplexing.

If public reaction to Monday night’s leader debate is anything to go by, the most dynamic players in the game thus far have been the Independents and smaller parties, who have come across as capable, articulate and intelligent, if somewhat lacking in detailed policy positions in every area.

24


Background

It is nevertheless a fact that there will have been a further nine full days of campaigning between the end of fieldwork for this poll and election day. With so much still clearly to play for, it can be assumed that the political environment will become increasingly heated over that period, with shifts in today’s poll figures likely, if not probable.

25


Party Support and Leader Satisfaction Levels

Levels of satisfaction with the Government, Enda Kenny as Taoiseach and Eamon Ryan as leader of the Green Party have remained statistically static since our last poll of two weeks ago.

There has, however, been a statistically significant drop in Gerry Adam’s satisfaction rating, from 36% to 32%. Joan Burton’s personal rating has also declined, from 34% to 30%, which is statistically significant in and of itself, but represents an even more notable drop from the average satisfaction rating of 36% that the Tánaiste had been attracting over the previous twelve months.

The real winner from a leader satisfaction perspective has been Micheál Martin as leader of Fianna Fáil, whose rating increases by five percentage points since the beginning of the month to 44% today, achieving the highest satisfaction rating achieved by any party leader in the Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Poll series since August 2014.

From a party support perspective, Fine Gael will be pleased with its 30% share of support in today’s poll. This represents a consolidation of the circa 30% support level the main coalition party has enjoyed since last December, and represents a statistically insignificant increase of two percentage points poll-on-poll.

The party is still on course to win around 50 seats on election day, and to enter post-election coalition negotiations in pole position.

26



Compared with our last poll, Fine Gael’s support has increased most notably amongst male voters (from 28% to 33%), those aged 35 years+ (from 27% to 34%) and ABC1 white collar and professional workers (from 30% to 37%).

In other words, Fine Gael has managed to solidify its vote amongst its core demographic constituency. Its support is stronger in rural areas than urban regions, although it is very much holding its own in Dublin, where its support remains solid at 28%.

Support for the Labour Party has, however, declined significantly over the last two weeks, and now stands at just 4% nationwide. At this level, it is difficult to predict the number of seats Labour could potentially win at the next election, or indeed what its final share of the first preference vote will be. Including today’s figures, Labour’s average support level since mid March of last year has been 7%. If its final vote on election day comes in between this range of 4% to 7%, the party’s challenge becomes winning 10 seats in the next Dáil.

Compared to the last poll two weeks ago, Labour support has declined most notably amongst female, 55+ years, Dublin voters.

Today’s poll also represents bad news for Sinn Féin. On the back of quite a lacklustre campaign, support for that party now sits at just 15% - its lowest in the B&A series since December 2013, and three percentage points lower than its previous 12 month average of 18%. Support for Sinn Féin has declined most significantly amongst females, those aged 35 years+, and in the crucial Dublin area.

27



The real ‘winners’ in today’s poll are, however, both Fianna Fáil and Independents/smaller parties.

At 22% support today, Fianna Fáil’s standing is at its highest in almost three years and, if achieved on voting day, would position the party well ahead of its main opposition rival Sinn Féin.

Fianna Fáil support is up particularly so with female voters (from 19% two weeks ago to 24% today) and younger voters aged 18-34 years (from just 12% to 23%). Indeed Fianna Fáil, Sinn Féin and Independents/smaller parties are now neck and neck amongst 18 to 34 year olds – the challenge for all of them being to mobilise this constituency come election day.

The trend in most opinion polls over the last year and a half had been a decline in support for Independents/Others, from a high of 32% in July of last year to 26% at the beginning of this month.

As of last Tuesday, 30% of all Irish voters indicate they will vote for an Independent candidate or smaller party. Within this 30%, two-thirds identified specific smaller parties or groupings that they are likely to vote for.

At a national level this latter bloc, representing 20% of the entire electorate, is relatively evenly split across the AAA/PBP Alliance, Green Party, Independent Alliance, Renua Ireland and Social Democrats.

28



The message here is clear – the Independent/Others vote is hardening, rendering the prospect of as many as 45 such TDs in the next Dáil a distinct possibility.

Nowhere is the fractured nature of Irish politics more evident than in the Dublin region, which will account for 44 of the 158 seats in the next Dáil.

In today’s poll, an astonishing 38% of all voters in the Dublin region indicate support for Independents or smaller parties – an increase of 11 percentage points over the last two weeks, albeit based upon a relatively small sample size.

A detailed breakdown of the Dublin vote, again keeping sample size caveats in mind, indicates that Fine Gael is likely to emerge as the largest party in the region at 28%, with the remainder splayed widely across all other parties (from Fianna Fáil, Sinn Féin and Labour, through to the Social Democrats, AAA/PBP, Green Party, Independent Alliance and everything in between!).

This pattern of response in Dublin alone indicates how difficult it is, even at this late stage of the campaign, to predict the likely composition of the next Dáil, with a Fine Gael/Fianna Fáil coalition the only clear option, at least numerically.

29


Coalition Preferences & Most Impressive Party Leader

Towards the end of the interview, respondents were presented with seven potential coalition options, and asked which one of them they would prefer to see following the General Election.

Six of these options had been presented to respondents in our January poll, with an additional one added this month for the sake of completion.

Of the seven options presented, 46% of all voters opted for one which included Fine Gael. 34% selected an option involving Fianna Fáil participation, 21% for one including Sinn Féin, and 43% went for a coalition which would include Labour as a minority partner.

A review of this question by party support reveals some interesting insights into the mindset of the electorate.

Top preferred options amongst Fianna Fáil voters are for a Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil coalition, or a Fianna Fáil, Labour and Others coalition (with both of these options attracting 29% grassroots Fianna Fáil support).

65% of Fine Gael supporters would like to see a coalition involving themselves and Labour, and possibly other parties or Independents, although one in five Fine Gael voters would rather a Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil administration.

30



Those Sinn Féin voters expressing a coalition preference are broadly split between those favouring a Sinn Féin/Fianna Fáil Government (34%) and a Sinn Féin, Labour and Others coalition (29%).

Of those indicating they are likely to vote for an Independent or smaller party candidate, 28% suggest they would like to see a coalition in place after the election which does not include any Independents or smaller parties, 40% express a preference for a coalition involving Independents or smaller parties, while 33% are quite uncertain what their preferences might be in this regard.

Finally, survey respondents were asked, on an unprompted basis, which party leader had impressed them the most during the election campaign so far.

In response, just over a third of all voters stated that they have not been impressed by any of the party leaders.

At an overall level, Micheál Martin emerges as by far the most impressive leader, with a quarter of the electorate nominating him at this question. Enda Kenny and Gerry Adams emerge in joint second place, with just 13% of all voters across the country particularly impressed with each of them.

31



Analysis by party support reveals that Fine Gael and Labour supporters have been the least impressed of all with the leaders of their own parties with just 40% of Fine Gael supporters identifying Enda Kenny as the most impressive campaigning leader, and 22% of Labour Party voters nominating Joan Burton as such.

Tabular Data

J7214 : Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes : Pre Election Opinion Poll 2 F/W 15th-16th Feb 2016

Table 1 Behaviour & Attitudes (Private & Confidential) Page 1

Q.1 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the manner in which the Government is running the country?

Base : All Irish Voters Total Gender Age Social Class Region Area


Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Total 3,225 1,570 1,655 1,024 1,208 992 1,319 1,696 210 890 851 877 606 1,948 1,277

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Weighted Total 3,225 1,570 1,655 1,024 1,208 992 1,319 1,696 210 890 851 877 606 1,948 1,277

Unweighted Total 1,026 508 518 310 387 329 463 505 58 287 280 275 184 681 345

Satisfied 1,057 559 499 248 390 419 524 414 119 346 238 273 200 672 385

33% 36% 30% 24% 32% 42% 40% 24% 57% 39% 28% 31% 33% 35% 30%

Dissatisfied 1,968 923 1,045 671 764 534 730 1,153 86 513 559 532 365 1,176 792

61% 59% 63% 66% 63% 54% 55% 68% 41% 58% 66% 61% 60% 60% 62%

No opinion (DO NOT READ OUT)

199 89 110 106 54 39 65 130 5 31 55 72 42 100 100

6% 6% 7% 10% 4% 4% 5% 8% 2% 3% 6% 8% 7% 5% 8%



Q.1 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the manner in which the Government is running the country?

Base : All Irish Voters Total Party Support Q9 Likelihood Consitituency Seats

Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Other

Don't Know /Would not

Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote

5 Seats 4 Seats 3 Seats

Total 3,225 609 760 114 56 443 706 537 2,964 2,646 318 133 117 1,103 1,271 851

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Weighted Total 3,225 609 760 114 56 443 706 537 2,964 2,646 318 133 117 1,103 1,271 851

Unweighted Total 1,026 194 252 36 20 135 223 166 947 850 97 41 35 341 414 271

Satisfied 1,057 102 625 55 15 35 154 71 1,015 923 92 33 9 303 508 247

33% 17% 82% 48% 28% 8% 22% 13% 34% 35% 29% 25% 8% 27% 40% 29%

Dissatisfied 1,968 466 118 50 40 381 530 383 1,795 1,594 202 76 94 718 701 549

61% 77% 16% 44% 72% 86% 75% 71% 61% 60% 63% 57% 80% 65% 55% 64%


199 41 16 9 - 27 23 84 153 129 24 24 14 82 61 56

6% 7% 2% 8% - 6% 3% 16% 5% 5% 8% 18% 12% 7% 5% 7%



Q.2 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Kenny is doing his job as Taoiseach?



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Total 3,225 1,570 1,655 1,024 1,208 992 1,319 1,696 210 890 851 877 606 1,948 1,277

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Weighted Total 3,225 1,570 1,655 1,024 1,208 992 1,319 1,696 210 890 851 877 606 1,948 1,277


Satisfied 1,002 495 507 233 395 374 511 394 97 312 223 257 210 593 409

31% 32% 31% 23% 33% 38% 39% 23% 46% 35% 26% 29% 35% 30% 32%

Dissatisfied 1,969 955 1,014 656 736 577 716 1,152 101 514 545 540 370 1,193 776

61% 61% 61% 64% 61% 58% 54% 68% 48% 58% 64% 62% 61% 61% 61%


254 120 134 136 77 42 92 150 12 63 84 80 27 162 92

8% 8% 8% 13% 6% 4% 7% 9% 6% 7% 10% 9% 4% 8% 7%



Q.2 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Kenny is doing his job as Taoiseach?


Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Other


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Total 3,225 609 760 114 56 443 706 537 2,964 2,646 318 133 117 1,103 1,271 851

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Weighted Total 3,225 609 760 114 56 443 706 537 2,964 2,646 318 133 117 1,103 1,271 851


Satisfied 1,002 116 568 45 18 45 134 76 967 876 91 16 12 283 474 245

31% 19% 75% 40% 33% 10% 19% 14% 33% 33% 29% 12% 10% 26% 37% 29%

Dissatisfied 1,969 461 151 53 35 368 539 361 1,796 1,604 192 88 85 730 714 525

61% 76% 20% 46% 63% 83% 76% 67% 61% 61% 60% 66% 72% 66% 56% 62%


254 33 41 16 2 30 33 100 201 166 35 30 21 89 83 82

8% 5% 5% 14% 4% 7% 5% 19% 7% 6% 11% 22% 18% 8% 7% 10%



Q.3 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ms. Burton is doing her job as Tanaiste?



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Total 3,225 1,570 1,655 1,024 1,208 992 1,319 1,696 210 890 851 877 606 1,948 1,277

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Weighted Total 3,225 1,570 1,655 1,024 1,208 992 1,319 1,696 210 890 851 877 606 1,948 1,277


Satisfied 967 432 535 230 372 365 474 386 107 298 229 228 213 590 377

30% 28% 32% 22% 31% 37% 36% 23% 51% 34% 27% 26% 35% 30% 30%

Dissatisfied 2,096 1,052 1,044 724 784 588 780 1,221 95 562 569 597 368 1,271 825

65% 67% 63% 71% 65% 59% 59% 72% 45% 63% 67% 68% 61% 65% 65%


161 86 75 71 52 39 65 89 7 30 53 53 26 86 75

5% 5% 5% 7% 4% 4% 5% 5% 4% 3% 6% 6% 4% 4% 6%



Q.3 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ms. Burton is doing her job as Tanaiste?


Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Other


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Total 3,225 609 760 114 56 443 706 537 2,964 2,646 318 133 117 1,103 1,271 851

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Weighted Total 3,225 609 760 114 56 443 706 537 2,964 2,646 318 133 117 1,103 1,271 851


Satisfied 967 116 458 74 15 36 168 100 908 843 65 44 16 314 457 197

30% 19% 60% 65% 26% 8% 24% 19% 31% 32% 20% 33% 13% 28% 36% 23%

Dissatisfied 2,096 462 266 25 38 400 519 386 1,930 1,702 228 70 88 735 755 606

65% 76% 35% 22% 68% 90% 74% 72% 65% 64% 72% 53% 75% 67% 59% 71%


161 31 36 15 3 6 19 51 126 101 25 19 14 54 59 49

5% 5% 5% 13% 5% 1% 3% 10% 4% 4% 8% 14% 12% 5% 5% 6%



Q.4 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fail?



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Total 3,225 1,570 1,655 1,024 1,208 992 1,319 1,696 210 890 851 877 606 1,948 1,277

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Weighted Total 3,225 1,570 1,655 1,024 1,208 992 1,319 1,696 210 890 851 877 606 1,948 1,277


Satisfied 1,425 745 680 405 500 520 610 710 105 389 355 418 263 878 548

44% 47% 41% 40% 41% 52% 46% 42% 50% 44% 42% 48% 43% 45% 43%

Dissatisfied 1,451 671 780 466 600 385 586 781 84 399 396 373 283 868 584

45% 43% 47% 46% 50% 39% 44% 46% 40% 45% 47% 42% 47% 45% 46%


348 154 194 153 108 87 122 205 21 102 101 86 60 202 146

11% 10% 12% 15% 9% 9% 9% 12% 10% 11% 12% 10% 10% 10% 11%



Q.4 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fail?


Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Other


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Total 3,225 609 760 114 56 443 706 537 2,964 2,646 318 133 117 1,103 1,271 851

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Weighted Total 3,225 609 760 114 56 443 706 537 2,964 2,646 318 133 117 1,103 1,271 851


Satisfied 1,425 498 334 52 24 134 243 142 1,340 1,221 119 54 32 487 602 336

44% 82% 44% 45% 42% 30% 34% 26% 45% 46% 37% 41% 27% 44% 47% 39%

Dissatisfied 1,451 86 354 41 30 266 375 298 1,324 1,173 151 56 68 506 536 410

45% 14% 47% 36% 55% 60% 53% 56% 45% 44% 47% 42% 58% 46% 42% 48%


348 26 72 21 2 43 88 97 301 252 48 23 17 110 133 106

11% 4% 9% 19% 3% 10% 12% 18% 10% 10% 15% 17% 15% 10% 10% 12%



Q.5 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Fein?



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Total 3,225 1,570 1,655 1,024 1,208 992 1,319 1,696 210 890 851 877 606 1,948 1,277

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Weighted Total 3,225 1,570 1,655 1,024 1,208 992 1,319 1,696 210 890 851 877 606 1,948 1,277


Satisfied 1,026 594 432 399 355 272 312 649 64 242 318 284 182 645 380

32% 38% 26% 39% 29% 27% 24% 38% 31% 27% 37% 32% 30% 33% 30%

Dissatisfied 1,838 819 1,019 480 711 647 845 860 134 559 448 457 374 1,086 752

57% 52% 62% 47% 59% 65% 64% 51% 64% 63% 53% 52% 62% 56% 59%


361 158 204 146 143 73 161 188 12 89 86 136 51 216 145

11% 10% 12% 14% 12% 7% 12% 11% 6% 10% 10% 15% 8% 11% 11%



Q.5 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Fein?


Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Other


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Total 3,225 609 760 114 56 443 706 537 2,964 2,646 318 133 117 1,103 1,271 851

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Weighted Total 3,225 609 760 114 56 443 706 537 2,964 2,646 318 133 117 1,103 1,271 851


Satisfied 1,026 180 134 12 4 402 203 91 946 816 131 57 23 403 388 235

32% 30% 18% 10% 7% 91% 29% 17% 32% 31% 41% 43% 19% 37% 30% 28%

Dissatisfied 1,838 347 582 76 46 32 405 350 1,697 1,546 151 51 82 596 729 514

57% 57% 77% 67% 82% 7% 57% 65% 57% 58% 48% 39% 70% 54% 57% 60%


361 82 45 26 6 8 98 96 320 284 36 25 13 105 154 102

11% 13% 6% 23% 11% 2% 14% 18% 11% 11% 11% 19% 11% 9% 12% 12%



Q.6 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Ryan is doing his job as leader of The Green Party?



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Total 3,225 1,570 1,655 1,024 1,208 992 1,319 1,696 210 890 851 877 606 1,948 1,277

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Weighted Total 3,225 1,570 1,655 1,024 1,208 992 1,319 1,696 210 890 851 877 606 1,948 1,277


Satisfied 1,161 529 632 370 326 465 532 539 90 381 275 300 205 795 366

36% 34% 38% 36% 27% 47% 40% 32% 43% 43% 32% 34% 34% 41% 29%

Dissatisfied 1,225 631 594 352 546 327 447 686 93 344 336 296 250 699 526

38% 40% 36% 34% 45% 33% 34% 40% 44% 39% 39% 34% 41% 36% 41%


839 410 429 302 336 201 340 471 27 165 241 281 151 454 385

26% 26% 26% 30% 28% 20% 26% 28% 13% 19% 28% 32% 25% 23% 30%



Q.6 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Ryan is doing his job as leader of The Green Party?


Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Other


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Total 3,225 609 760 114 56 443 706 537 2,964 2,646 318 133 117 1,103 1,271 851

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Weighted Total 3,225 609 760 114 56 443 706 537 2,964 2,646 318 133 117 1,103 1,271 851


Satisfied 1,161 215 333 64 51 167 201 131 1,099 1,001 98 24 32 387 516 258

36% 35% 44% 56% 91% 38% 28% 24% 37% 38% 31% 18% 28% 35% 41% 30%

Dissatisfied 1,225 198 264 31 4 151 343 234 1,113 993 120 56 57 459 404 363

38% 32% 35% 27% 7% 34% 49% 44% 38% 38% 38% 42% 49% 42% 32% 43%


839 197 163 19 1 125 162 172 752 652 100 53 28 257 351 231

26% 32% 21% 17% 2% 28% 23% 32% 25% 25% 31% 40% 24% 23% 28% 27%






Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Total 3,225 1,570 1,655 1,024 1,208 992 1,319 1,696 210 890 851 877 606 1,948 1,277

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Weighted Total 3,225 1,570 1,655 1,024 1,208 992 1,319 1,696 210 890 851 877 606 1,948 1,277


Fianna Fail 609 278 331 181 180 248 238 336 35 100 180 179 150 331 278

19% 18% 20% 18% 15% 25% 18% 20% 17% 11% 21% 20% 25% 17% 22%

Fine Gael 760 416 344 141 301 318 401 269 90 208 207 181 164 437 323

24% 26% 21% 14% 25% 32% 30% 16% 43% 23% 24% 21% 27% 22% 25%

Labour Party 114 60 54 55 33 26 47 61 7 44 45 17 8 79 35

4% 4% 3% 5% 3% 3% 4% 4% 3% 5% 5% 2% 1% 4% 3%

Green Party 56 21 35 25 20 11 29 27 - 36 11 4 5 49 7

2% 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% - 4% 1% 0% 1% 2% 1%

Sinn Fein 443 251 191 213 162 68 117 302 23 88 113 142 99 273 170

14% 16% 12% 21% 13% 7% 9% 18% 11% 10% 13% 16% 16% 14% 13%

Independent / Other 706 341 366 184 286 236 275 410 22 290 125 217 75 498 208

22% 22% 22% 18% 24% 24% 21% 24% 10% 33% 15% 25% 12% 26% 16%

Don’t know 479 182 297 206 188 85 187 272 19 113 143 125 98 267 212

15% 12% 18% 20% 16% 9% 14% 16% 9% 13% 17% 14% 16% 14% 17%

Would not vote 58 23 36 20 38 - 25 19 13 12 27 12 7 14 44

2% 1% 2% 2% 3% - 2% 1% 6% 1% 3% 1% 1% 1% 3%





Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Other


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Total 3,225 609 760 114 56 443 706 537 2,964 2,646 318 133 117 1,103 1,271 851

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Weighted Total 3,225 609 760 114 56 443 706 537 2,964 2,646 318 133 117 1,103 1,271 851


Fianna Fail 609 609 - - - - - - 579 519 60 20 6 215 214 180

19% 100% - - - - - - 20% 20% 19% 15% 5% 20% 17% 21%

Fine Gael 760 - 760 - - - - - 752 694 58 6 2 210 345 206

24% - 100% - - - - - 25% 26% 18% 4% 2% 19% 27% 24%

Labour Party 114 - - 114 - - - - 108 95 13 3 3 43 46 24

4% - - 100% - - - - 4% 4% 4% 2% 2% 4% 4% 3%

Green Party 56 - - - 56 - - - 54 54 - 2 - 17 26 13

2% - - - 100% - - - 2% 2% - 2% - 2% 2% 2%

Sinn Fein 443 - - - - 443 - - 409 362 48 13 21 179 186 78

14% - - - - 100% - - 14% 14% 15% 10% 18% 16% 15% 9%

Independent / Other 706 - - - - - 706 - 666 609 58 20 20 225 290 191

22% - - - - - 100% - 22% 23% 18% 15% 17% 20% 23% 22%

Don’t know 479 - - - - - - 479 387 304 82 67 23 185 161 133

15% - - - - - - 89% 13% 12% 26% 50% 19% 17% 13% 16%

Would not vote 58 - - - - - - 58 8 8 - 3 44 28 3 27

2% - - - - - - 11% 0% 0% - 3% 37% 3% 0% 3%




Base : All voters excluding undecided

Total Gender Age Social Class Region Area


Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Total 2,688 1,366 1,322 799 982 908 1,106 1,405 177 765 681 741 501 1,667 1,021

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Weighted Total 2,688 1,366 1,322 799 982 908 1,106 1,405 177 765 681 741 501 1,667 1,021

Unweighted Total 860 447 413 241 318 301 390 420 50 246 227 234 153 582 278

Fianna Fail 609 278 331 181 180 248 238 336 35 100 180 179 150 331 278

23% 20% 25% 23% 18% 27% 21% 24% 20% 13% 26% 24% 30% 20% 27%

Fine Gael 760 416 344 141 301 318 401 269 90 208 207 181 164 437 323

28% 30% 26% 18% 31% 35% 36% 19% 51% 27% 30% 24% 33% 26% 32%

Labour Party 114 60 54 55 33 26 47 61 7 44 45 17 8 79 35

4% 4% 4% 7% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 6% 7% 2% 2% 5% 3%

Green Party 56 21 35 25 20 11 29 27 - 36 11 4 5 49 7

2% 2% 3% 3% 2% 1% 3% 2% - 5% 2% 1% 1% 3% 1%

Sinn Fein 443 251 191 213 162 68 117 302 23 88 113 142 99 273 170

16% 18% 14% 27% 16% 7% 11% 22% 13% 12% 17% 19% 20% 16% 17%


26% 25% 28% 23% 29% 26% 25% 29% 12% 38% 18% 29% 15% 30% 20%




Base : All voters excluding undecided

Total Party Support Q9 Likelihood Consitituency Seats

Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Other


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Total 2,688 609 760 114 56 443 706 - 2,569 2,333 236 63 51 890 1,107 691

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Weighted Total 2,688 609 760 114 56 443 706 - 2,569 2,333 236 63 51 890 1,107 691

Unweighted Total 860 194 252 36 20 135 223 - 823 751 72 20 16 277 361 222

Fianna Fail 609 609 - - - - - - 579 519 60 20 6 215 214 180

23% 100% - - - - - - 23% 22% 25% 31% 11% 24% 19% 26%

Fine Gael 760 - 760 - - - - - 752 694 58 6 2 210 345 206

28% - 100% - - - - - 29% 30% 24% 9% 4% 24% 31% 30%

Labour Party 114 - - 114 - - - - 108 95 13 3 3 43 46 24

4% - - 100% - - - - 4% 4% 5% 4% 6% 5% 4% 4%

Green Party 56 - - - 56 - - - 54 54 - 2 - 17 26 13

2% - - - 100% - - - 2% 2% - 3% - 2% 2% 2%

Sinn Fein 443 - - - - 443 - - 409 362 48 13 21 179 186 78

16% - - - - 100% - - 16% 15% 20% 20% 41% 20% 17% 11%


26% - - - - - 100% - 26% 26% 24% 32% 39% 25% 26% 28%



Adjusted Party Support : Q.7 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?

Base : All voters excluding undecided : Will definitely vote



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Total 2,096 1,094 1,002 559 740 796 877 1,071 147 618 486 585 406 1,317 778

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Weighted Total 2,096 1,094 1,002 559 740 796 877 1,071 147 618 486 585 406 1,317 778


Fianna Fail 457 216 242 129 127 202 179 249 29 69 120 143 126 254 204

22% 20% 24% 23% 17% 25% 20% 23% 20% 11% 25% 24% 31% 19% 26%

Fine Gael 618 356 263 101 239 279 328 211 80 175 165 135 143 347 271

30% 33% 26% 18% 32% 35% 37% 20% 54% 28% 34% 23% 35% 26% 35%

Labour Party 86 39 47 34 30 23 38 46 3 36 29 15 5 63 23

4% 4% 5% 6% 4% 3% 4% 4% 2% 6% 6% 3% 1% 5% 3%

Green Party 54 19 35 25 18 12 25 29 - 34 12 3 5 46 8

3% 2% 3% 4% 2% 1% 3% 3% - 5% 2% 1% 1% 3% 1%

Sinn Fein 309 177 132 141 102 66 80 214 15 68 77 103 61 199 110

15% 16% 13% 25% 14% 8% 9% 20% 10% 11% 16% 18% 15% 15% 14%


27% 26% 28% 23% 30% 27% 26% 30% 14% 38% 17% 32% 16% 31% 21%



Adjusted Party Support : Q.7 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?

Base : All voters excluding undecided : Will definitely vote


Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Other


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Total 2,096 457 618 86 54 309 571 - 2,096 2,096 - - - 702 866 527

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Weighted Total 2,096 457 618 86 54 309 571 - 2,096 2,096 - - - 702 866 527

Unweighted Total 751 168 230 30 19 112 192 - 751 751 - - - 243 319 189

Fianna Fail 457 457 - - - - - - 457 457 - - - 172 156 130

22% 100% - - - - - - 22% 22% - - - 25% 18% 25%

Fine Gael 618 - 618 - - - - - 618 618 - - - 173 277 168

30% - 100% - - - - - 30% 30% - - - 25% 32% 32%

Labour Party 86 - - 86 - - - - 86 86 - - - 29 39 18

4% - - 100% - - - - 4% 4% - - - 4% 5% 3%

Green Party 54 - - - 54 - - - 54 54 - - - 17 25 12

3% - - - 100% - - - 3% 3% - - - 2% 3% 2%

Sinn Fein 309 - - - - 309 - - 309 309 - - - 129 133 47

15% - - - - 100% - - 15% 15% - - - 18% 15% 9%

Independent / Other 571 - - - - - 571 - 571 571 - - - 182 237 152

27% - - - - - 100% - 27% 27% - - - 26% 27% 29%



Adjusted Party Support - Independents Analysis : Q7 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?Q8 And to which one of these groupings or types of Independents would you give your first preference vote?Base : All voters excluding undecided : Will definitely vote



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Total 2,096 1,094 1,002 559 740 796 877 1,071 147 618 486 585 406 1,317 778

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Weighted Total 2,096 1,094 1,002 559 740 796 877 1,071 147 618 486 585 406 1,317 778


Fianna Fail 457 216 242 129 127 202 179 249 29 69 120 143 126 254 204

22% 20% 24% 23% 17% 25% 20% 23% 20% 11% 25% 24% 31% 19% 26%

Fine Gael 618 356 263 101 239 279 328 211 80 175 165 135 143 347 271

30% 33% 26% 18% 32% 35% 37% 20% 54% 28% 34% 23% 35% 26% 35%

Labour Party 86 39 47 34 30 23 38 46 3 36 29 15 5 63 23

4% 4% 5% 6% 4% 3% 4% 4% 2% 6% 6% 3% 1% 5% 3%

Green Party 73 19 54 33 25 15 29 45 - 48 12 3 10 60 13

3% 2% 5% 6% 3% 2% 3% 4% - 8% 2% 1% 2% 5% 2%

Workers Party 16 13 3 8 3 6 2 14 - 8 - 8 - 8 8

1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% - 1% - 1% - 1% 1%

Sinn Fein 309 177 132 141 102 66 80 214 15 68 77 103 61 199 110

15% 16% 13% 25% 14% 8% 9% 20% 10% 11% 16% 18% 15% 15% 14%

Socialist Party 9 9 - 6 - 3 2 7 - 5 - 4 - 5 4

0% 1% - 1% - 0% 0% 1% - 1% - 1% - 0% 0%

Anti-Austerity Alliance / People Before Profit Alliance

98 69 29 30 42 26 40 58 - 51 14 26 8 90 8

5% 6% 3% 5% 6% 3% 5% 5% - 8% 3% 4% 2% 7% 1%

RENUA Ireland 59 23 36 8 22 30 21 35 4 12 22 22 4 43 17

3% 2% 4% 1% 3% 4% 2% 3% 3% 2% 4% 4% 1% 3% 2%

Social Democrats 66 40 25 17 26 22 32 33 - 54 5 7 - 61 4

3% 4% 3% 3% 4% 3% 4% 3% - 9% 1% 1% - 5% 1%

Independent Alliance 96 43 52 20 49 27 49 47 - 38 16 18 23 84 12

5% 4% 5% 4% 7% 3% 6% 4% - 6% 3% 3% 6% 6% 2%

Other Independent candidate 208 89 119 34 76 97 77 114 16 55 27 100 26 102 105

10% 8% 12% 6% 10% 12% 9% 11% 11% 9% 6% 17% 6% 8% 14%






Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Total 2,096 1,094 1,002 559 740 796 877 1,071 147 618 486 585 406 1,317 778

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Weighted Total 2,096 1,094 1,002 559 740 796 877 1,071 147 618 486 585 406 1,317 778






Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Other


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Total 2,096 457 618 86 54 309 571 - 2,096 2,096 - - - 702 866 527

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Weighted Total 2,096 457 618 86 54 309 571 - 2,096 2,096 - - - 702 866 527


Fianna Fail 457 457 - - - - - - 457 457 - - - 172 156 130

22% 100% - - - - - - 22% 22% - - - 25% 18% 25%

Fine Gael 618 - 618 - - - - - 618 618 - - - 173 277 168

30% - 100% - - - - - 30% 30% - - - 25% 32% 32%

Labour Party 86 - - 86 - - - - 86 86 - - - 29 39 18

4% - - 100% - - - - 4% 4% - - - 4% 5% 3%

Green Party 73 - - - 54 - 19 - 73 73 - - - 17 40 16

3% - - - 100% - 3% - 3% 3% - - - 2% 5% 3%

Workers Party 16 - - - - - 16 - 16 16 - - - 6 10 -

1% - - - - - 3% - 1% 1% - - - 1% 1% -

Sinn Fein 309 - - - - 309 - - 309 309 - - - 129 133 47

15% - - - - 100% - - 15% 15% - - - 18% 15% 9%

Socialist Party 9 - - - - - 9 - 9 9 - - - 3 4 2

0% - - - - - 2% - 0% 0% - - - 0% 0% 0%


98 - - - - - 98 - 98 98 - - - 34 44 21

5% - - - - - 17% - 5% 5% - - - 5% 5% 4%

RENUA Ireland 59 - - - - - 59 - 59 59 - - - 17 21 22

3% - - - - - 10% - 3% 3% - - - 2% 2% 4%

Social Democrats 66 - - - - - 66 - 66 66 - - - 10 31 24

3% - - - - - 11% - 3% 3% - - - 1% 4% 5%

Independent Alliance 96 - - - - - 96 - 96 96 - - - 43 38 15

5% - - - - - 17% - 5% 5% - - - 6% 4% 3%

Other Independent candidate 208 - - - - - 208 - 208 208 - - - 69 74 65

10% - - - - - 36% - 10% 10% - - - 10% 8% 12%





Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Other


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Total 2,096 457 618 86 54 309 571 - 2,096 2,096 - - - 702 866 527

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Weighted Total 2,096 457 618 86 54 309 571 - 2,096 2,096 - - - 702 866 527




Independents Analysis : Q7 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?Q8 And to which one of these groupings or types of Independents would you give your first preference vote?BaseAll intend to vote Independent / Other : Will definitely vote



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Total 571 287 283 131 226 214 228 323 20 237 83 184 66 408 163

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Weighted Total 571 287 283 131 226 214 228 323 20 237 83 184 66 408 163


Green Party 19 - 19 8 7 3 4 15 - 14 - - 5 14 5

3% - 7% 6% 3% 2% 2% 5% - 6% - - 7% 4% 3%

Workers Party 16 13 3 8 3 6 2 14 - 8 - 8 - 8 8

3% 5% 1% 6% 1% 3% 1% 4% - 3% - 4% - 2% 5%

Socialist Party 9 9 - 6 - 3 2 7 - 5 - 4 - 5 4

2% 3% - 5% - 1% 1% 2% - 2% - 2% - 1% 2%


98 69 29 30 42 26 40 58 - 51 14 26 8 90 8

17% 24% 10% 23% 19% 12% 18% 18% - 21% 16% 14% 12% 22% 5%

RENUA Ireland 59 23 36 8 22 30 21 35 4 12 22 22 4 43 17

10% 8% 13% 6% 10% 14% 9% 11% 19% 5% 26% 12% 6% 11% 10%

Social Democrats 66 40 25 17 26 22 32 33 - 54 5 7 - 61 4

11% 14% 9% 13% 12% 10% 14% 10% - 23% 6% 4% - 15% 3%

Independent Alliance 96 43 52 20 49 27 49 47 - 38 16 18 23 84 12

17% 15% 19% 15% 22% 12% 21% 15% - 16% 20% 10% 35% 21% 7%

Other Independent candidate 208 89 119 34 76 97 77 114 16 55 27 100 26 102 105

36% 31% 42% 26% 34% 45% 34% 35% 81% 23% 32% 54% 40% 25% 65%



Independents Analysis : Q7 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?Q8 And to which one of these groupings or types of Independents would you give your first preference vote?BaseAll intend to vote Independent / Other : Will definitely vote


Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Other


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Total 571 - - - - - 571 - 571 571 - - - 182 237 152

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Weighted Total 571 - - - - - 571 - 571 571 - - - 182 237 152

Unweighted Total 192 - - - - - 192 - 192 192 - - - 61 80 51

Green Party 19 - - - - - 19 - 19 19 - - - - 15 4

3% - - - - - 3% - 3% 3% - - - - 6% 2%

Workers Party 16 - - - - - 16 - 16 16 - - - 6 10 -

3% - - - - - 3% - 3% 3% - - - 3% 4% -

Socialist Party 9 - - - - - 9 - 9 9 - - - 3 4 2

2% - - - - - 2% - 2% 2% - - - 2% 2% 2%


98 - - - - - 98 - 98 98 - - - 34 44 21

17% - - - - - 17% - 17% 17% - - - 19% 18% 13%

RENUA Ireland 59 - - - - - 59 - 59 59 - - - 17 21 22

10% - - - - - 10% - 10% 10% - - - 9% 9% 14%

Social Democrats 66 - - - - - 66 - 66 66 - - - 10 31 24

11% - - - - - 11% - 11% 11% - - - 6% 13% 16%

Independent Alliance 96 - - - - - 96 - 96 96 - - - 43 38 15

17% - - - - - 17% - 17% 17% - - - 24% 16% 10%

Other Independent candidate 208 - - - - - 208 - 208 208 - - - 69 74 65

36% - - - - - 36% - 36% 36% - - - 38% 31% 42%






Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Total 3,225 1,570 1,655 1,024 1,208 992 1,319 1,696 210 890 851 877 606 1,948 1,277

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Weighted Total 3,225 1,570 1,655 1,024 1,208 992 1,319 1,696 210 890 851 877 606 1,948 1,277


Fine Gael and Labour 553 277 275 101 202 250 275 204 73 171 136 134 112 336 217

17% 18% 17% 10% 17% 25% 21% 12% 35% 19% 16% 15% 18% 17% 17%

Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil 523 274 249 113 199 212 250 235 39 117 143 141 122 280 244

16% 17% 15% 11% 16% 21% 19% 14% 18% 13% 17% 16% 20% 14% 19%

Fine Gael and Sinn Féin 123 72 51 68 34 21 45 70 8 34 31 38 20 71 52

4% 5% 3% 7% 3% 2% 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 4% 4%

Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin 297 176 121 121 116 60 96 183 18 40 95 114 48 161 136

9% 11% 7% 12% 10% 6% 7% 11% 9% 4% 11% 13% 8% 8% 11%


293 117 176 82 96 115 102 180 10 95 61 83 53 204 89

9% 7% 11% 8% 8% 12% 8% 11% 5% 11% 7% 10% 9% 10% 7%


275 113 162 68 124 83 139 123 13 120 59 62 34 187 89

9% 7% 10% 7% 10% 8% 11% 7% 6% 14% 7% 7% 6% 10% 7%


253 129 124 124 81 48 64 184 5 70 64 77 42 177 76

8% 8% 8% 12% 7% 5% 5% 11% 2% 8% 8% 9% 7% 9% 6%

Other 246 133 113 59 108 79 107 134 5 57 81 75 33 174 72

8% 8% 7% 6% 9% 8% 8% 8% 2% 6% 9% 9% 5% 9% 6%

Don’t know 613 259 354 273 221 119 229 354 30 173 156 148 135 339 274

19% 16% 21% 27% 18% 12% 17% 21% 14% 19% 18% 17% 22% 17% 21%

Would not vote 49 20 29 16 27 6 12 28 9 12 26 4 7 20 29

2% 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 2% 4% 1% 3% 0% 1% 1% 2%




Base Total Party Support Q9 Likelihood Consitituency Seats

Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Other


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Total 3,225 609 760 114 56 443 706 537 2,964 2,646 318 133 117 1,103 1,271 851

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Weighted Total 3,225 609 760 114 56 443 706 537 2,964 2,646 318 133 117 1,103 1,271 851


Fine Gael and Labour 553 15 401 49 9 - 48 30 537 506 30 11 5 136 283 134

17% 2% 53% 43% 16% - 7% 6% 18% 19% 10% 8% 5% 12% 22% 16%

Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil 523 180 154 12 - 15 86 77 510 470 40 2 3 207 187 130

16% 29% 20% 10% - 3% 12% 14% 17% 18% 13% 2% 3% 19% 15% 15%

Fine Gael and Sinn Féin 123 10 31 - 2 51 18 10 120 106 14 - 2 55 47 21

4% 2% 4% - 3% 11% 3% 2% 4% 4% 5% - 2% 5% 4% 2%

Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin 297 83 7 - 4 152 40 11 281 245 36 13 3 102 122 73

9% 14% 1% - 8% 34% 6% 2% 9% 9% 11% 10% 3% 9% 10% 9%


293 177 12 12 8 2 67 15 276 251 25 13 4 101 110 83

9% 29% 2% 10% 15% 0% 10% 3% 9% 9% 8% 10% 4% 9% 9% 10%


275 15 87 16 6 2 133 17 264 228 35 6 5 63 148 64

9% 2% 12% 14% 10% 0% 19% 3% 9% 9% 11% 5% 5% 6% 12% 8%


253 3 10 9 5 130 80 17 224 203 21 14 15 113 90 51

8% 1% 1% 8% 8% 29% 11% 3% 8% 8% 7% 11% 13% 10% 7% 6%

Other 246 47 23 4 12 36 91 33 238 221 18 5 3 64 93 89

8% 8% 3% 4% 21% 8% 13% 6% 8% 8% 6% 4% 2% 6% 7% 10%

Don’t know 613 79 35 12 10 56 139 280 512 413 99 69 32 237 186 190

19% 13% 5% 11% 19% 13% 20% 52% 17% 16% 31% 52% 27% 21% 15% 22%

Would not vote 49 - - - - - 3 47 3 3 - - 44 26 6 17

2% - - - - - 0% 9% 0% 0% - - 37% 2% 0% 2%






Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Total 3,225 1,570 1,655 1,024 1,208 992 1,319 1,696 210 890 851 877 606 1,948 1,277

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Weighted Total 3,225 1,570 1,655 1,024 1,208 992 1,319 1,696 210 890 851 877 606 1,948 1,277


Enda Kenny, Fine Gael 432 218 213 95 174 163 196 195 41 123 104 93 111 266 166

13% 14% 13% 9% 14% 16% 15% 12% 20% 14% 12% 11% 18% 14% 13%

Micheal Martin, Fianna Fail 801 437 364 209 257 335 362 399 40 175 189 277 160 470 331

25% 28% 22% 20% 21% 34% 27% 24% 19% 20% 22% 32% 26% 24% 26%

Gerry Adams, Sinn Fein 415 257 158 182 154 79 119 263 33 100 135 101 79 252 162

13% 16% 10% 18% 13% 8% 9% 16% 16% 11% 16% 12% 13% 13% 13%

Joan Burton, Labour Party 129 27 102 40 38 51 42 70 17 59 35 32 3 94 36

4% 2% 6% 4% 3% 5% 3% 4% 8% 7% 4% 4% 1% 5% 3%

Eamon Ryan, Green Party 38 16 22 16 17 6 17 22 - 17 3 6 13 25 14

1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% - 2% 0% 1% 2% 1% 1%

Lucinda Creighton, Renua 169 73 95 43 61 64 76 86 6 49 51 37 32 92 76

5% 5% 6% 4% 5% 6% 6% 5% 3% 6% 6% 4% 5% 5% 6%

Other 120 51 69 34 54 32 66 54 - 60 20 34 6 107 14

4% 3% 4% 3% 4% 3% 5% 3% - 7% 2% 4% 1% 5% 1%

None 1,121 491 630 406 453 262 442 607 72 307 315 297 202 643 478

35% 31% 38% 40% 37% 26% 34% 36% 34% 35% 37% 34% 33% 33% 37%




Base Total Party Support Q9 Likelihood Consitituency Seats

Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Other


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Total 3,225 609 760 114 56 443 706 537 2,964 2,646 318 133 117 1,103 1,271 851

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Weighted Total 3,225 609 760 114 56 443 706 537 2,964 2,646 318 133 117 1,103 1,271 851


Enda Kenny, Fine Gael 432 47 302 13 6 - 54 11 423 379 44 2 6 112 214 106

13% 8% 40% 12% 10% - 8% 2% 14% 14% 14% 2% 5% 10% 17% 12%

Micheal Martin, Fianna Fail 801 403 135 10 12 55 124 63 758 705 53 24 15 237 358 206

25% 66% 18% 9% 22% 12% 18% 12% 26% 27% 17% 18% 13% 22% 28% 24%

Gerry Adams, Sinn Fein 415 23 18 - 2 287 57 27 393 340 53 9 13 194 132 89

13% 4% 2% - 4% 65% 8% 5% 13% 13% 17% 7% 11% 18% 10% 10%

Joan Burton, Labour Party 129 11 44 25 - 5 24 20 121 108 13 3 5 36 44 49

4% 2% 6% 22% - 1% 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 2% 4% 3% 3% 6%

Eamon Ryan, Green Party 38 - 4 7 6 - 18 3 35 31 3 - 4 18 13 7

1% - 0% 6% 10% - 3% 1% 1% 1% 1% - 3% 2% 1% 1%

Lucinda Creighton, Renua 169 5 49 2 10 3 83 17 160 136 24 - 8 48 59 62

5% 1% 6% 1% 19% 1% 12% 3% 5% 5% 7% - 7% 4% 5% 7%

Other 120 3 27 3 3 14 41 28 109 102 7 8 - 36 59 25

4% 0% 4% 3% 6% 3% 6% 5% 4% 4% 2% 6% - 3% 5% 3%

None 1,121 117 182 53 17 80 304 368 964 845 120 88 66 421 392 307

35% 19% 24% 46% 30% 18% 43% 69% 33% 32% 38% 66% 56% 38% 31% 36%



Q.11 How likely would you be to vote if there was a General Election tomorrow?



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Total 3,225 1,570 1,655 1,024 1,208 992 1,319 1,696 210 890 851 877 606 1,948 1,277

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Weighted Total 3,225 1,570 1,655 1,024 1,208 992 1,319 1,696 210 890 851 877 606 1,948 1,277


Would definitely vote 2,646 1,316 1,330 743 986 917 1,120 1,343 183 765 636 724 520 1,615 1,030

82% 84% 80% 73% 82% 92% 85% 79% 87% 86% 75% 83% 86% 83% 81%

Would probably vote 318 154 165 153 117 48 109 197 12 73 106 95 44 196 122

10% 10% 10% 15% 10% 5% 8% 12% 6% 8% 12% 11% 7% 10% 10%

Might/might not vote 133 53 80 74 40 20 40 87 7 21 46 42 25 73 60

4% 3% 5% 7% 3% 2% 3% 5% 3% 2% 5% 5% 4% 4% 5%

Would probably not vote 49 16 33 30 19 - 21 29 - 10 20 9 10 24 25

2% 1% 2% 3% 2% - 2% 2% - 1% 2% 1% 2% 1% 2%

Would definitely not vote 68 28 40 19 45 4 26 33 9 16 37 8 7 36 32

2% 2% 2% 2% 4% 0% 2% 2% 4% 2% 4% 1% 1% 2% 3%

Don’t know (DO NOT READ OUT)

10 3 7 6 - 4 3 7 - 3 7 - - 3 7

0% 0% 0% 1% - 0% 0% 0% - 0% 1% - - 0% 1%

- ANY Would Vote 2,964 1,470 1,494 896 1,104 965 1,230 1,540 194 839 742 819 564 1,811 1,153

92% 94% 90% 87% 91% 97% 93% 91% 93% 94% 87% 93% 93% 93% 90%

- ANY Would Not 117 44 73 49 65 4 46 62 9 27 57 17 17 60 57

4% 3% 4% 5% 5% 0% 4% 4% 4% 3% 7% 2% 3% 3% 4%

Mean 4.69 4.73 4.65 4.54 4.64 4.90 4.73 4.65 4.71 4.76 4.52 4.73 4.75 4.71 4.65

Standard deviation 0.80 0.74 0.86 0.89 0.92 0.42 0.77 0.82 0.88 0.72 1.01 0.68 0.72 0.76 0.86



Q.11 How likely would you be to vote if there was a General Election tomorrow?


Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Other


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Total 3,225 609 760 114 56 443 706 537 2,964 2,646 318 133 117 1,103 1,271 851

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Weighted Total 3,225 609 760 114 56 443 706 537 2,964 2,646 318 133 117 1,103 1,271 851


Would definitely vote 2,646 519 694 95 54 362 609 312 2,646 2,646 - - - 888 1,079 679

82% 85% 91% 84% 96% 82% 86% 58% 89% 100% - - - 81% 85% 80%

Would probably vote 318 60 58 13 - 48 58 82 318 - 318 - - 100 118 101

10% 10% 8% 11% - 11% 8% 15% 11% - 100% - - 9% 9% 12%

Might/might not vote 133 20 6 3 2 13 20 70 - - - 133 - 55 49 30

4% 3% 1% 2% 4% 3% 3% 13% - - - 100% - 5% 4% 3%

Would probably not vote 49 2 2 3 - 14 12 16 - - - - 49 21 15 13

2% 0% 0% 3% - 3% 2% 3% - - - - 42% 2% 1% 2%

Would definitely not vote 68 3 - - - 6 8 50 - - - - 68 31 8 29

2% 1% - - - 1% 1% 9% - - - - 58% 3% 1% 3%

Don’t know (DO NOT READ OUT)

10 4 - - - - - 6 - - - - - 7 3 -

0% 1% - - - - - 1% - - - - - 1% 0% -

- ANY Would Vote 2,964 579 752 108 54 409 666 395 2,964 2,646 318 - - 988 1,196 780

92% 95% 99% 95% 96% 92% 94% 74% 100% 100% 100% - - 90% 94% 92%

- ANY Would Not 117 6 2 3 - 21 20 66 - - - - 117 53 23 42

4% 1% 0% 3% - 5% 3% 12% - - - - 100% 5% 2% 5%

Mean 4.69 4.80 4.90 4.77 4.92 4.68 4.77 4.11 4.89 5.00 4.00 3.00 1.42 4.64 4.77 4.63

Standard deviation 0.80 0.56 0.35 0.61 0.38 0.80 0.69 1.30 0.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.49 0.89 0.63 0.90



Q.12 And to which party or independent candidate did you give your first preference vote in the last General Election?



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Total 3,225 1,570 1,655 1,024 1,208 992 1,319 1,696 210 890 851 877 606 1,948 1,277

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Weighted Total 3,225 1,570 1,655 1,024 1,208 992 1,319 1,696 210 890 851 877 606 1,948 1,277


Fianna Fail 555 261 294 130 203 223 189 312 54 100 160 149 146 283 272

17% 17% 18% 13% 17% 22% 14% 18% 26% 11% 19% 17% 24% 15% 21%

Fine Gael 964 487 477 150 406 408 455 399 110 259 260 251 194 563 401

30% 31% 29% 15% 34% 41% 34% 24% 53% 29% 31% 29% 32% 29% 31%

Labour Party 263 135 128 71 87 105 98 162 3 117 64 74 8 205 58

8% 9% 8% 7% 7% 11% 7% 10% 1% 13% 7% 8% 1% 11% 5%

Green Party 33 14 19 13 13 7 28 6 - 24 6 4 - 31 3

1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 0% - 3% 1% 0% - 2% 0%

Workers Party 7 7 - 5 2 - 2 5 - 2 - 5 - 2 5

0% 0% - 0% 0% - 0% 0% - 0% - 1% - 0% 0%

Sinn Fein 301 165 136 135 130 36 104 182 15 57 55 117 72 196 106

9% 11% 8% 13% 11% 4% 8% 11% 7% 6% 6% 13% 12% 10% 8%

Socialist Party 29 10 19 6 2 21 6 23 - 27 - 2 - 29 -

1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 2% 0% 1% - 3% - 0% - 1% -

Independent/Other 320 165 155 76 142 103 166 149 6 114 72 92 42 216 105

10% 11% 9% 7% 12% 10% 13% 9% 3% 13% 8% 11% 7% 11% 8%

People Before Profit Alliance 7 - 7 3 4 - 3 4 - 7 - - - 7 -

0% - 0% 0% 0% - 0% 0% - 1% - - - 0% -

Anti-Austerity Alliance 6 3 3 - 3 3 3 3 - 6 - - - 6 -

0% 0% 0% - 0% 0% 0% 0% - 1% - - - 0% -

Don’t know 269 81 187 107 99 63 97 168 4 47 108 59 54 121 148

8% 5% 11% 10% 8% 6% 7% 10% 2% 5% 13% 7% 9% 6% 12%

Did not vote 470 242 228 329 118 23 169 285 16 130 127 124 90 290 181

15% 15% 14% 32% 10% 2% 13% 17% 8% 15% 15% 14% 15% 15% 14%






Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Total 3,225 1,570 1,655 1,024 1,208 992 1,319 1,696 210 890 851 877 606 1,948 1,277

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Weighted Total 3,225 1,570 1,655 1,024 1,208 992 1,319 1,696 210 890 851 877 606 1,948 1,277






Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Other


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Total 3,225 609 760 114 56 443 706 537 2,964 2,646 318 133 117 1,103 1,271 851

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Weighted Total 3,225 609 760 114 56 443 706 537 2,964 2,646 318 133 117 1,103 1,271 851


Fianna Fail 555 330 51 11 - 46 69 50 537 497 40 15 3 196 181 179

17% 54% 7% 9% - 10% 10% 9% 18% 19% 12% 12% 3% 18% 14% 21%

Fine Gael 964 92 566 26 5 46 122 107 945 871 74 9 6 268 454 242

30% 15% 74% 23% 10% 10% 17% 20% 32% 33% 23% 7% 5% 24% 36% 28%

Labour Party 263 37 21 48 5 14 96 41 259 235 24 3 - 81 108 73

8% 6% 3% 42% 9% 3% 14% 8% 9% 9% 8% 2% - 7% 8% 9%

Green Party 33 - - - 19 - 8 6 28 28 - 2 3 3 15 16

1% - - - 35% - 1% 1% 1% 1% - 2% 3% 0% 1% 2%

Workers Party 7 - - - - - 7 - 7 5 2 - - - 7 -

0% - - - - - 1% - 0% 0% 1% - - - 1% -

Sinn Fein 301 11 20 - 4 211 22 34 276 245 31 13 12 125 126 51

9% 2% 3% - 7% 48% 3% 6% 9% 9% 10% 10% 10% 11% 10% 6%

Socialist Party 29 4 3 3 - - 17 2 27 23 4 2 - 7 9 13

1% 1% 0% 2% - - 2% 0% 1% 1% 1% 2% - 1% 1% 1%

Independent/Other 320 20 25 5 7 12 213 37 320 300 21 - - 113 143 65

10% 3% 3% 4% 13% 3% 30% 7% 11% 11% 6% - - 10% 11% 8%

People Before Profit Alliance 7 - - - - - 7 - 3 3 - - 4 - 3 4

0% - - - - - 1% - 0% 0% - - 3% - 0% 0%

Anti-Austerity Alliance 6 - - - - - 6 - 6 6 - - - 6 - -

0% - - - - - 1% - 0% 0% - - - 1% - -

Don’t know 269 47 21 4 9 16 31 140 212 183 29 41 16 107 96 65

8% 8% 3% 4% 16% 4% 4% 26% 7% 7% 9% 30% 14% 10% 8% 8%

Did not vote 470 68 53 17 6 97 108 121 343 249 93 48 74 196 129 145

15% 11% 7% 15% 10% 22% 15% 22% 12% 9% 29% 36% 63% 18% 10% 17%





Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Other


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Total 3,225 609 760 114 56 443 706 537 2,964 2,646 318 133 117 1,103 1,271 851

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Weighted Total 3,225 609 760 114 56 443 706 537 2,964 2,646 318 133 117 1,103 1,271 851





Base : All Voters Excluding did not vote (Last Gen Election)



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Total 2,486 1,247 1,239 589 991 906 1,053 1,244 189 713 616 694 462 1,537 949

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Weighted Total 2,486 1,247 1,239 589 991 906 1,053 1,244 189 713 616 694 462 1,537 949


Fianna Fail 555 261 294 130 203 223 189 312 54 100 160 149 146 283 272

22% 21% 24% 22% 20% 25% 18% 25% 29% 14% 26% 22% 32% 18% 29%

Fine Gael 964 487 477 150 406 408 455 399 110 259 260 251 194 563 401

39% 39% 39% 25% 41% 45% 43% 32% 58% 36% 42% 36% 42% 37% 42%

Labour Party 263 135 128 71 87 105 98 162 3 117 64 74 8 205 58

11% 11% 10% 12% 9% 12% 9% 13% 2% 16% 10% 11% 2% 13% 6%

Green Party 33 14 19 13 13 7 28 6 - 24 6 4 - 31 3

1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% 3% 0% - 3% 1% 1% - 2% 0%

Workers Party 7 7 - 5 2 - 2 5 - 2 - 5 - 2 5

0% 1% - 1% 0% - 0% 0% - 0% - 1% - 0% 1%

Sinn Fein 301 165 136 135 130 36 104 182 15 57 55 117 72 196 106

12% 13% 11% 23% 13% 4% 10% 15% 8% 8% 9% 17% 16% 13% 11%

Socialist Party 29 10 19 6 2 21 6 23 - 27 - 2 - 29 -

1% 1% 2% 1% 0% 2% 1% 2% - 4% - 0% - 2% -

Independent/Other 320 165 155 76 142 103 166 149 6 114 72 92 42 216 105

13% 13% 13% 13% 14% 11% 16% 12% 3% 16% 12% 13% 9% 14% 11%

People Before Profit Alliance 7 - 7 3 4 - 3 4 - 7 - - - 7 -

0% - 1% 1% 0% - 0% 0% - 1% - - - 0% -

Anti-Austerity Alliance 6 3 3 - 3 3 3 3 - 6 - - - 6 -

0% 0% 0% - 0% 0% 0% 0% - 1% - - - 0% -




Base : All Voters Excluding did not vote (Last Gen Election)


Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Other


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Total 2,486 493 686 93 41 329 568 276 2,410 2,214 196 45 28 799 1,045 641

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Weighted Total 2,486 493 686 93 41 329 568 276 2,410 2,214 196 45 28 799 1,045 641

Unweighted Total 805 160 229 29 16 100 182 89 781 719 62 14 9 250 345 210

Fianna Fail 555 330 51 11 - 46 69 50 537 497 40 15 3 196 181 179

22% 67% 7% 12% - 14% 12% 18% 22% 22% 20% 34% 11% 24% 17% 28%

Fine Gael 964 92 566 26 5 46 122 107 945 871 74 9 6 268 454 242

39% 19% 82% 29% 13% 14% 22% 39% 39% 39% 38% 20% 21% 34% 43% 38%

Labour Party 263 37 21 48 5 14 96 41 259 235 24 3 - 81 108 73

11% 8% 3% 51% 13% 4% 17% 15% 11% 11% 12% 7% - 10% 10% 11%

Green Party 33 - - - 19 - 8 6 28 28 - 2 3 3 15 16

1% - - - 47% - 1% 2% 1% 1% - 5% 11% 0% 1% 2%

Workers Party 7 - - - - - 7 - 7 5 2 - - - 7 -

0% - - - - - 1% - 0% 0% 1% - - - 1% -

Sinn Fein 301 11 20 - 4 211 22 34 276 245 31 13 12 125 126 51

12% 2% 3% - 9% 64% 4% 12% 11% 11% 16% 30% 43% 16% 12% 8%

Socialist Party 29 4 3 3 - - 17 2 27 23 4 2 - 7 9 13

1% 1% 0% 3% - - 3% 1% 1% 1% 2% 5% - 1% 1% 2%

Independent/Other 320 20 25 5 7 12 213 37 320 300 21 - - 113 143 65

13% 4% 4% 5% 18% 4% 38% 14% 13% 14% 10% - - 14% 14% 10%

People Before Profit Alliance 7 - - - - - 7 - 3 3 - - 4 - 3 4

0% - - - - - 1% - 0% 0% - - 14% - 0% 1%

Anti-Austerity Alliance 6 - - - - - 6 - 6 6 - - - 6 - -

0% - - - - - 1% - 0% 0% - - - 1% - -



Q.13 Are you eligible to vote in Irish General Elections, or not?

Base : All Irish Adults 18+ Total Gender Age Social Class Region Area


Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Total 3,225 1,570 1,655 1,024 1,208 992 1,319 1,696 210 890 851 877 606 1,948 1,277

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Weighted Total 3,225 1,570 1,655 1,024 1,208 992 1,319 1,696 210 890 851 877 606 1,948 1,277


Yes, eligible 3,225 1,570 1,655 1,024 1,208 992 1,319 1,696 210 890 851 877 606 1,948 1,277

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%



Q.13 Are you eligible to vote in Irish General Elections, or not?

Base : All Irish Adults 18+ Total Party Support Q9 Likelihood Consitituency Seats

Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Other


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Total 3,225 609 760 114 56 443 706 537 2,964 2,646 318 133 117 1,103 1,271 851

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Weighted Total 3,225 609 760 114 56 443 706 537 2,964 2,646 318 133 117 1,103 1,271 851


Yes, eligible 3,225 609 760 114 56 443 706 537 2,964 2,646 318 133 117 1,103 1,271 851

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%



Analysis of Sample



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Weighted 3,225 1,570 1,655 1,024 1,208 992 1,319 1,696 210 890 851 877 606 1,948 1,277

Not Weighted 1,026 508 518 310 387 329 463 505 58 287 280 275 184 681 345

Gender

Male 1,570 1,570 - 498 601 472 597 831 142 409 423 437 302 932 639

49% 100% - 49% 50% 48% 45% 49% 68% 46% 50% 50% 50% 48% 50%

Female 1,655 - 1,655 527 608 520 721 866 68 481 429 440 305 1,016 638

51% - 100% 51% 50% 52% 55% 51% 32% 54% 50% 50% 50% 52% 50%

Age

-34 1,024 498 527 1,024 - - 422 566 36 303 255 272 195 627 397

32% 32% 32% 100% - - 32% 33% 17% 34% 30% 31% 32% 32% 31%

35-54 1,208 601 608 - 1,208 - 564 576 69 294 356 341 217 725 483

37% 38% 37% - 100% - 43% 34% 33% 33% 42% 39% 36% 37% 38%

55+ 992 472 520 - - 992 333 554 106 293 240 264 195 595 397

31% 30% 31% - - 100% 25% 33% 50% 33% 28% 30% 32% 31% 31%

Social Class

ABC1 1,319 597 721 422 564 333 1,319 - - 446 315 328 230 915 404

41% 38% 44% 41% 47% 34% 100% - - 50% 37% 37% 38% 47% 32%

C2DE 1,696 831 866 566 576 554 - 1,696 - 444 468 489 296 1,033 664

53% 53% 52% 55% 48% 56% - 100% - 50% 55% 56% 49% 53% 52%

F 210 142 68 36 69 106 - - 210 - 69 60 80 - 210

7% 9% 4% 3% 6% 11% - - 100% - 8% 7% 13% - 16%

Region

Dublin 890 409 481 303 294 293 446 444 - 890 - - - 890 -

28% 26% 29% 30% 24% 30% 34% 26% - 100% - - - 46% -

Lein-ster 851 423 429 255 356 240 315 468 69 - 851 - - 406 445

26% 27% 26% 25% 30% 24% 24% 28% 33% - 100% - - 21% 35%

Mun-ster 877 437 440 272 341 264 328 489 60 - - 877 - 456 421

27% 28% 27% 27% 28% 27% 25% 29% 29% - - 100% - 23% 33%



Analysis of Sample



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Weighted 3,225 1,570 1,655 1,024 1,208 992 1,319 1,696 210 890 851 877 606 1,948 1,277

Not Weighted 1,026 508 518 310 387 329 463 505 58 287 280 275 184 681 345

Conn/Ulster 606 302 305 195 217 195 230 296 80 - - - 606 195 411

19% 19% 18% 19% 18% 20% 17% 17% 38% - - - 100% 10% 32%

Area

Urban 1,948 932 1,016 627 725 595 915 1,033 - 890 406 456 195 1,948 -

60% 59% 61% 61% 60% 60% 69% 61% - 100% 48% 52% 32% 100% -

Rural 1,277 639 638 397 483 397 404 664 210 - 445 421 411 - 1,277

40% 41% 39% 39% 40% 40% 31% 39% 100% - 52% 48% 68% - 100%

Party Support

Fianna Fail 609 278 331 181 180 248 238 336 35 100 180 179 150 331 278

19% 18% 20% 18% 15% 25% 18% 20% 17% 11% 21% 20% 25% 17% 22%

Fine Gael 760 416 344 141 301 318 401 269 90 208 207 181 164 437 323

24% 26% 21% 14% 25% 32% 30% 16% 43% 23% 24% 21% 27% 22% 25%

Labour Party 114 60 54 55 33 26 47 61 7 44 45 17 8 79 35

4% 4% 3% 5% 3% 3% 4% 4% 3% 5% 5% 2% 1% 4% 3%

Green Party 56 21 35 25 20 11 29 27 - 36 11 4 5 49 7

2% 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% - 4% 1% 0% 1% 2% 1%

Sinn Fein 443 251 191 213 162 68 117 302 23 88 113 142 99 273 170

14% 16% 12% 21% 13% 7% 9% 18% 11% 10% 13% 16% 16% 14% 13%


22% 22% 22% 18% 24% 24% 21% 24% 10% 33% 15% 25% 12% 26% 16%

Don't Know / Would not 537 204 333 226 227 85 213 292 33 125 171 136 105 281 256

17% 13% 20% 22% 19% 9% 16% 17% 16% 14% 20% 16% 17% 14% 20%

Likelihood

Would vote 2,964 1,470 1,494 896 1,104 965 1,230 1,540 194 839 742 819 564 1,811 1,153

92% 94% 90% 87% 91% 97% 93% 91% 93% 94% 87% 93% 93% 93% 90%

Would Def vote 2,646 1,316 1,330 743 986 917 1,120 1,343 183 765 636 724 520 1,615 1,030

82% 84% 80% 73% 82% 92% 85% 79% 87% 86% 75% 83% 86% 83% 81%



Analysis of Sample



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Weighted 3,225 1,570 1,655 1,024 1,208 992 1,319 1,696 210 890 851 877 606 1,948 1,277

Not Weighted 1,026 508 518 310 387 329 463 505 58 287 280 275 184 681 345

Would Prob vote 318 154 165 153 117 48 109 197 12 73 106 95 44 196 122

10% 10% 10% 15% 10% 5% 8% 12% 6% 8% 12% 11% 7% 10% 10%

Might/might not 133 53 80 74 40 20 40 87 7 21 46 42 25 73 60

4% 3% 5% 7% 3% 2% 3% 5% 3% 2% 5% 5% 4% 4% 5%

Would not Vote 117 44 73 49 65 4 46 62 9 27 57 17 17 60 57

4% 3% 4% 5% 5% 0% 4% 4% 4% 3% 7% 2% 3% 3% 4%

Consitituency Seats

5 Seats 1,103 525 578 383 384 337 407 608 87 300 388 215 200 612 491

34% 33% 35% 37% 32% 34% 31% 36% 42% 34% 46% 24% 33% 31% 38%

4 Seats 1,271 631 640 369 481 420 590 626 55 384 150 468 269 890 381

39% 40% 39% 36% 40% 42% 45% 37% 26% 43% 18% 53% 44% 46% 30%

3 Seats 851 415 437 272 344 235 322 462 67 207 314 194 137 446 405

26% 26% 26% 27% 28% 24% 24% 27% 32% 23% 37% 22% 23% 23% 32%

Marital Status

Single 924 490 434 591 211 122 311 562 51 273 206 269 177 573 351

29% 31% 26% 58% 17% 12% 24% 33% 24% 31% 24% 31% 29% 29% 28%

Married 1,694 852 842 251 822 621 805 750 139 500 471 388 335 1,036 658

53% 54% 51% 24% 68% 63% 61% 44% 66% 56% 55% 44% 55% 53% 52%

Cohabiting 282 142 140 169 101 12 117 162 3 50 104 90 37 157 124

9% 9% 8% 16% 8% 1% 9% 10% 1% 6% 12% 10% 6% 8% 10%

Widowed 195 48 147 - 8 186 58 123 13 55 28 73 38 120 74

6% 3% 9% - 1% 19% 4% 7% 6% 6% 3% 8% 6% 6% 6%

Seperated / Divorced 130 39 92 14 65 51 27 100 4 12 42 57 19 62 69

4% 2% 6% 1% 5% 5% 2% 6% 2% 1% 5% 7% 3% 3% 5%

Civil Partnership - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -



Analysis of Sample



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Weighted 3,225 1,570 1,655 1,024 1,208 992 1,319 1,696 210 890 851 877 606 1,948 1,277

Not Weighted 1,026 508 518 310 387 329 463 505 58 287 280 275 184 681 345

Adults

1 533 194 338 114 151 268 153 348 32 99 108 205 121 300 233

17% 12% 20% 11% 12% 27% 12% 21% 15% 11% 13% 23% 20% 15% 18%

2 1,599 790 809 442 646 510 704 819 77 403 461 413 322 969 630

50% 50% 49% 43% 53% 51% 53% 48% 37% 45% 54% 47% 53% 50% 49%

3 555 338 218 198 233 124 231 275 50 191 135 134 95 340 215

17% 21% 13% 19% 19% 13% 17% 16% 24% 21% 16% 15% 16% 17% 17%

4 375 186 189 188 125 63 163 185 27 138 107 86 45 235 140

12% 12% 11% 18% 10% 6% 12% 11% 13% 15% 13% 10% 7% 12% 11%

5 121 50 71 62 33 26 64 46 11 44 33 28 16 82 39

4% 3% 4% 6% 3% 3% 5% 3% 5% 5% 4% 3% 3% 4% 3%

6 33 9 24 17 16 - 5 18 10 10 8 11 3 16 17

1% 1% 1% 2% 1% - 0% 1% 5% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

7+ 3 3 - 3 - - - - 3 - - - 3 - 3

0% 0% - 0% - - - - 2% - - - 1% - 0%

Don't Know 5 - 5 - 5 - - 5 - 5 - - - 5 -

0% - 0% - 0% - - 0% - 1% - - - 0% -

Mean 2.40 2.46 2.34 2.71 2.41 2.06 2.47 2.30 2.76 2.61 2.44 2.26 2.23 2.42 2.36

Kids

0 1,984 1,042 943 519 518 947 766 1,054 164 604 487 525 369 1,197 788

62% 66% 57% 51% 43% 95% 58% 62% 78% 68% 57% 60% 61% 61% 62%

1 495 225 270 223 238 35 184 276 35 126 133 153 83 287 208

15% 14% 16% 22% 20% 4% 14% 16% 17% 14% 16% 17% 14% 15% 16%

2 483 220 263 203 270 10 228 251 4 108 151 117 107 306 177

15% 14% 16% 20% 22% 1% 17% 15% 2% 12% 18% 13% 18% 16% 14%

3 205 59 146 64 141 - 101 100 4 35 67 68 36 126 78

6% 4% 9% 6% 12% - 8% 6% 2% 4% 8% 8% 6% 6% 6%



Analysis of Sample



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Weighted 3,225 1,570 1,655 1,024 1,208 992 1,319 1,696 210 890 851 877 606 1,948 1,277

Not Weighted 1,026 508 518 310 387 329 463 505 58 287 280 275 184 681 345

4 38 14 25 11 27 - 27 11 - 8 11 15 4 23 15

1% 1% 1% 1% 2% - 2% 1% - 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1%

5 16 8 8 5 11 - 13 3 - 8 - - 8 8 8

0% 0% 0% 1% 1% - 1% 0% - 1% - - 1% 0% 1%

6 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

7+ 4 4 - - 4 - - - 4 - 4 - - - 4

0% 0% - - 0% - - - 2% - 0% - - - 0%

Don't Know - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Mean 0.72 0.61 0.83 0.87 1.15 0.06 0.84 0.67 0.37 0.59 0.82 0.74 0.76 0.73 0.72

Work

Working - Full Time (30+ hrs) 988 639 349 412 485 91 539 394 56 269 283 224 212 603 386

31% 41% 21% 40% 40% 9% 41% 23% 27% 30% 33% 26% 35% 31% 30%

Working - Part Time (-30 hrs) 437 135 302 137 212 88 156 260 20 100 116 151 69 237 200

14% 9% 18% 13% 18% 9% 12% 15% 9% 11% 14% 17% 11% 12% 16%

Self-Employed 250 183 67 39 140 72 135 58 57 60 69 50 70 125 125

8% 12% 4% 4% 12% 7% 10% 3% 27% 7% 8% 6% 12% 6% 10%

Unemployed 320 189 131 142 121 57 29 275 16 58 118 102 43 185 136

10% 12% 8% 14% 10% 6% 2% 16% 8% 6% 14% 12% 7% 9% 11%

Home Duties 454 4 451 125 205 124 150 289 15 107 122 136 88 268 186

14% 0% 27% 12% 17% 13% 11% 17% 7% 12% 14% 15% 15% 14% 15%

Retired 590 307 283 9 24 558 220 332 38 207 109 181 94 388 203

18% 20% 17% 1% 2% 56% 17% 20% 18% 23% 13% 21% 15% 20% 16%

Student, not employed 150 86 64 132 18 - 83 62 5 66 25 29 30 115 35

5% 5% 4% 13% 1% - 6% 4% 2% 7% 3% 3% 5% 6% 3%



Analysis of Sample



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural

Weighted 3,225 1,570 1,655 1,024 1,208 992 1,319 1,696 210 890 851 877 606 1,948 1,277

Not Weighted 1,026 508 518 310 387 329 463 505 58 287 280 275 184 681 345

Student, working part-time 35 28 7 29 4 3 7 25 3 23 9 3 - 29 6

1% 2% 0% 3% 0% 0% 1% 1% 2% 3% 1% 0% - 2% 0%

Income Earners

One - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Two - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Three - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Four - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

None working at moment - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Internet Access

Yes - Broadband - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Yes - Other Connection - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

No - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

CWE

Yes 2,096 1,289 808 574 788 734 803 1,154 140 533 543 618 401 1,255 841

65% 82% 49% 56% 65% 74% 61% 68% 66% 60% 64% 70% 66% 64% 66%

No 1,129 282 847 450 420 258 516 543 70 357 308 259 205 693 436

35% 18% 51% 44% 35% 26% 39% 32% 34% 40% 36% 30% 34% 36% 34%



Analysis of Sample


Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Other


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Weighted 3,225 609 760 114 56 443 706 537 2,964 2,646 318 133 117 1,103 1,271 851

Not Weighted 1,026 194 252 36 20 135 223 166 947 850 97 41 35 341 414 271

Gender

Male 1,570 278 416 60 21 251 341 204 1,470 1,316 154 53 44 525 631 415

49% 46% 55% 53% 37% 57% 48% 38% 50% 50% 48% 40% 38% 48% 50% 49%

Female 1,655 331 344 54 35 191 366 333 1,494 1,330 165 80 73 578 640 437

51% 54% 45% 47% 63% 43% 52% 62% 50% 50% 52% 60% 62% 52% 50% 51%

Age

-34 1,024 181 141 55 25 213 184 226 896 743 153 74 49 383 369 272

32% 30% 19% 49% 44% 48% 26% 42% 30% 28% 48% 55% 42% 35% 29% 32%

35-54 1,208 180 301 33 20 162 286 227 1,104 986 117 40 65 384 481 344

37% 30% 40% 29% 35% 37% 41% 42% 37% 37% 37% 30% 55% 35% 38% 40%

55+ 992 248 318 26 11 68 236 85 965 917 48 20 4 337 420 235

31% 41% 42% 23% 21% 15% 33% 16% 33% 35% 15% 15% 3% 31% 33% 28%

Social Class

ABC1 1,319 238 401 47 29 117 275 213 1,230 1,120 109 40 46 407 590 322

41% 39% 53% 41% 51% 26% 39% 40% 41% 42% 34% 30% 40% 37% 46% 38%

C2DE 1,696 336 269 61 27 302 410 292 1,540 1,343 197 87 62 608 626 462

53% 55% 35% 53% 49% 68% 58% 54% 52% 51% 62% 65% 53% 55% 49% 54%

F 210 35 90 7 - 23 22 33 194 183 12 7 9 87 55 67

7% 6% 12% 6% - 5% 3% 6% 7% 7% 4% 5% 8% 8% 4% 8%

Region

Dublin 890 100 208 44 36 88 290 125 839 765 73 21 27 300 384 207

28% 16% 27% 39% 64% 20% 41% 23% 28% 29% 23% 16% 23% 27% 30% 24%

Lein-ster 851 180 207 45 11 113 125 171 742 636 106 46 57 388 150 314

26% 30% 27% 39% 20% 26% 18% 32% 25% 24% 33% 34% 48% 35% 12% 37%

Mun-ster 877 179 181 17 4 142 217 136 819 724 95 42 17 215 468 194

27% 29% 24% 15% 7% 32% 31% 25% 28% 27% 30% 31% 14% 19% 37% 23%



Analysis of Sample


Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Other


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Weighted 3,225 609 760 114 56 443 706 537 2,964 2,646 318 133 117 1,103 1,271 851

Not Weighted 1,026 194 252 36 20 135 223 166 947 850 97 41 35 341 414 271

Conn/Ulster 606 150 164 8 5 99 75 105 564 520 44 25 17 200 269 137

19% 25% 22% 7% 9% 22% 11% 20% 19% 20% 14% 18% 15% 18% 21% 16%

Area

Urban 1,948 331 437 79 49 273 498 281 1,811 1,615 196 73 60 612 890 446

60% 54% 58% 70% 87% 62% 71% 52% 61% 61% 62% 55% 51% 56% 70% 52%

Rural 1,277 278 323 35 7 170 208 256 1,153 1,030 122 60 57 491 381 405

40% 46% 42% 30% 13% 38% 29% 48% 39% 39% 38% 45% 49% 44% 30% 48%

Party Support

Fianna Fail 609 609 - - - - - - 579 519 60 20 6 215 214 180

19% 100% - - - - - - 20% 20% 19% 15% 5% 20% 17% 21%

Fine Gael 760 - 760 - - - - - 752 694 58 6 2 210 345 206

24% - 100% - - - - - 25% 26% 18% 4% 2% 19% 27% 24%

Labour Party 114 - - 114 - - - - 108 95 13 3 3 43 46 24

4% - - 100% - - - - 4% 4% 4% 2% 2% 4% 4% 3%

Green Party 56 - - - 56 - - - 54 54 - 2 - 17 26 13

2% - - - 100% - - - 2% 2% - 2% - 2% 2% 2%

Sinn Fein 443 - - - - 443 - - 409 362 48 13 21 179 186 78

14% - - - - 100% - - 14% 14% 15% 10% 18% 16% 15% 9%


22% - - - - - 100% - 22% 23% 18% 15% 17% 20% 23% 22%

Don't Know / Would not 537 - - - - - - 537 395 312 82 70 66 213 164 160

17% - - - - - - 100% 13% 12% 26% 53% 56% 19% 13% 19%

Likelihood

Would vote 2,964 579 752 108 54 409 666 395 2,964 2,646 318 - - 988 1,196 780

92% 95% 99% 95% 96% 92% 94% 74% 100% 100% 100% - - 90% 94% 92%

Would Def vote 2,646 519 694 95 54 362 609 312 2,646 2,646 - - - 888 1,079 679

82% 85% 91% 84% 96% 82% 86% 58% 89% 100% - - - 81% 85% 80%



Analysis of Sample


Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Other


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Weighted 3,225 609 760 114 56 443 706 537 2,964 2,646 318 133 117 1,103 1,271 851

Not Weighted 1,026 194 252 36 20 135 223 166 947 850 97 41 35 341 414 271

Would Prob vote 318 60 58 13 - 48 58 82 318 - 318 - - 100 118 101

10% 10% 8% 11% - 11% 8% 15% 11% - 100% - - 9% 9% 12%

Might/might not 133 20 6 3 2 13 20 70 - - - 133 - 55 49 30

4% 3% 1% 2% 4% 3% 3% 13% - - - 100% - 5% 4% 3%

Would not Vote 117 6 2 3 - 21 20 66 - - - - 117 53 23 42

4% 1% 0% 3% - 5% 3% 12% - - - - 100% 5% 2% 5%

Consitituency Seats

5 Seats 1,103 215 210 43 17 179 225 213 988 888 100 55 53 1,103 - -

34% 35% 28% 38% 31% 40% 32% 40% 33% 34% 31% 41% 45% 100% - -

4 Seats 1,271 214 345 46 26 186 290 164 1,196 1,079 118 49 23 - 1,271 -

39% 35% 45% 41% 46% 42% 41% 31% 40% 41% 37% 37% 19% - 100% -

3 Seats 851 180 206 24 13 78 191 160 780 679 101 30 42 - - 851

26% 30% 27% 21% 23% 18% 27% 30% 26% 26% 32% 22% 36% - - 100%

Marital Status

Single 924 139 145 40 22 171 214 192 810 678 133 67 41 305 366 253

29% 23% 19% 35% 40% 39% 30% 36% 27% 26% 42% 50% 35% 28% 29% 30%

Married 1,694 347 512 52 25 150 351 257 1,591 1,474 117 47 51 575 681 438

53% 57% 67% 45% 44% 34% 50% 48% 54% 56% 37% 36% 43% 52% 54% 51%

Cohabiting 282 49 19 19 - 79 81 35 247 214 33 13 21 123 90 68

9% 8% 3% 16% - 18% 11% 7% 8% 8% 10% 10% 18% 11% 7% 8%

Widowed 195 61 64 3 - 8 30 27 188 179 9 3 4 44 91 60

6% 10% 8% 3% - 2% 4% 5% 6% 7% 3% 2% 3% 4% 7% 7%

Seperated / Divorced 130 13 20 - 9 34 30 25 128 102 26 3 - 57 42 32

4% 2% 3% - 15% 8% 4% 5% 4% 4% 8% 2% - 5% 3% 4%

Civil Partnership - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -



Analysis of Sample


Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Other


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Weighted 3,225 609 760 114 56 443 706 537 2,964 2,646 318 133 117 1,103 1,271 851

Not Weighted 1,026 194 252 36 20 135 223 166 947 850 97 41 35 341 414 271

Adults

1 533 121 121 20 2 86 108 75 493 448 46 22 17 171 218 144

17% 20% 16% 17% 4% 19% 15% 14% 17% 17% 14% 16% 15% 15% 17% 17%

2 1,599 309 417 57 27 193 330 268 1,495 1,343 151 57 43 507 671 420

50% 51% 55% 50% 48% 44% 47% 50% 50% 51% 48% 43% 36% 46% 53% 49%

3 555 80 127 14 10 86 147 93 508 447 60 21 24 228 169 158

17% 13% 17% 12% 18% 19% 21% 17% 17% 17% 19% 16% 20% 21% 13% 19%

4 375 72 74 17 15 55 77 66 325 280 45 25 26 116 159 101

12% 12% 10% 15% 27% 12% 11% 12% 11% 11% 14% 18% 22% 11% 12% 12%

5 121 20 19 4 2 17 34 26 107 91 16 8 3 51 43 27

4% 3% 2% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 4% 3% 5% 6% 2% 5% 3% 3%

6 33 6 3 3 - 7 5 10 29 29 - - 5 30 3 -

1% 1% 0% 2% - 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% - - 4% 3% 0% -

7+ 3 3 - - - - - - 3 3 - - - - 3 -

0% 1% - - - - - - 0% 0% - - - - 0% -

Don't Know 5 - - - - - 5 - 5 5 - - - - 5 -

0% - - - - - 1% - 0% 0% - - - - 0% -

Mean 2.40 2.33 2.29 2.45 2.79 2.42 2.45 2.50 2.38 2.36 2.48 2.55 2.72 2.51 2.34 2.35

Kids

0 1,984 402 513 64 41 227 456 282 1,856 1,681 175 55 64 661 788 536

62% 66% 68% 56% 73% 51% 65% 52% 63% 64% 55% 41% 54% 60% 62% 63%

1 495 81 94 17 7 90 124 84 453 393 59 24 19 179 186 130

15% 13% 12% 15% 12% 20% 18% 16% 15% 15% 19% 18% 16% 16% 15% 15%

2 483 83 95 15 2 96 88 105 432 368 63 25 26 155 190 137

15% 14% 12% 13% 4% 22% 12% 20% 15% 14% 20% 19% 22% 14% 15% 16%

3 205 31 50 13 - 25 27 59 170 149 21 26 9 80 85 40

6% 5% 7% 12% - 6% 4% 11% 6% 6% 7% 19% 8% 7% 7% 5%



Analysis of Sample


Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Other


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Weighted 3,225 609 760 114 56 443 706 537 2,964 2,646 318 133 117 1,103 1,271 851

Not Weighted 1,026 194 252 36 20 135 223 166 947 850 97 41 35 341 414 271

4 38 9 5 - 6 5 9 3 35 35 - 3 - 17 13 9

1% 2% 1% - 12% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% - 3% - 2% 1% 1%

5 16 4 - 5 - - 3 4 16 16 - - - 7 9 -

0% 1% - 5% - - 0% 1% 1% 1% - - - 1% 1% -

6 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

7+ 4 - 4 - - - - - 4 4 - - - 4 - -

0% - 0% - - - - - 0% 0% - - - 0% - -

Don't Know - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Mean 0.72 0.64 0.63 0.98 0.66 0.85 0.61 0.94 0.70 0.69 0.78 1.25 0.83 0.78 0.72 0.66

Work

Working - Full Time (30+ hrs) 988 180 284 44 11 114 181 174 915 808 107 34 40 308 394 286

31% 30% 37% 39% 20% 26% 26% 32% 31% 31% 34% 25% 34% 28% 31% 34%

Working - Part Time (-30 hrs) 437 72 68 9 4 59 103 121 399 350 49 22 9 162 159 116

14% 12% 9% 8% 7% 13% 15% 23% 13% 13% 15% 16% 7% 15% 12% 14%

Self-Employed 250 41 66 7 11 24 74 28 236 225 11 3 11 68 102 81

8% 7% 9% 6% 19% 5% 10% 5% 8% 8% 4% 2% 9% 6% 8% 9%

Unemployed 320 51 42 4 - 102 72 49 278 236 43 27 15 151 83 86

10% 8% 5% 3% - 23% 10% 9% 9% 9% 13% 20% 12% 14% 7% 10%

Home Duties 454 106 99 16 2 66 84 80 404 362 42 24 26 159 192 103

14% 17% 13% 14% 4% 15% 12% 15% 14% 14% 13% 18% 22% 14% 15% 12%

Retired 590 143 176 18 11 34 143 66 576 542 34 11 4 203 261 126

18% 23% 23% 15% 20% 8% 20% 12% 19% 20% 11% 8% 3% 18% 21% 15%

Student, not employed 150 13 19 12 8 44 35 19 121 92 28 12 14 43 60 46

5% 2% 3% 10% 15% 10% 5% 4% 4% 3% 9% 9% 12% 4% 5% 5%



Analysis of Sample


Fianna Fail

Fine Gael

Labour Party

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Independent /Other


Would vote

Would Def vote

Would Prob vote

Might/might not

Would not Vote


Weighted 3,225 609 760 114 56 443 706 537 2,964 2,646 318 133 117 1,103 1,271 851

Not Weighted 1,026 194 252 36 20 135 223 166 947 850 97 41 35 341 414 271

Student, working part-time 35 3 6 4 8 - 14 - 35 31 4 - - 8 19 8

1% 0% 1% 4% 14% - 2% - 1% 1% 1% - - 1% 2% 1%

Income Earners

One - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Two - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Three - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Four - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

None working at moment - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Internet Access

Yes - Broadband - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Yes - Other Connection - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

No - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

CWE

Yes 2,096 395 528 85 28 302 461 297 1,980 1,787 193 68 49 667 842 588

65% 65% 70% 74% 50% 68% 65% 55% 67% 68% 61% 51% 41% 60% 66% 69%

No 1,129 214 232 29 28 141 246 240 984 859 125 65 69 436 429 264

35% 35% 30% 26% 50% 32% 35% 45% 33% 32% 39% 49% 59% 40% 34% 31%

1

The Questionnaire

BEHAVIOUR & ATTITUDES FEBRUARY POLL QUESTIONNAIRE

Good morning/afternoon/evening. My name is.............and I am carrying out a survey on

behalf of Behaviour & Attitudes, an independent market research company.

The interview will be conducted in accordance with Market Research Society guidelines - all

results will be shown in aggregate form only.

SQ. Can I just check if you are eligible to vote in Irish General Elections or not?

Yes – eligible 1 CONTINUE

No, not eligible 2

CLOSE AND DO NOT COUNT IN

QUOTA Don’t know 3

Q.1 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the manner in which the

Government is running the country?

Satisfied 1

Dissatisfied 2

No opinion 3

Q.2 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Kenny is doing his

job as Taoiseach?

Satisfied 1

Dissatisfied 2

No opinion 3

Q.3 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ms. Burton is doing her

job as Tanaiste?

Satisfied 1

Dissatisfied 2

No opinion 3

Q.4 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Martin is doing his

job as leader of Fianna Fail?

Satisfied 1

Dissatisfied 2

No opinion 3

J.7214

Q.5 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Adams is doing his

job as leader of Sinn Fein?

Satisfied 1

Dissatisfied 2

No opinion 3

Q.6 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Ryan is doing his job

as leader of The Green Party?

Satisfied 1

Dissatisfied 2

No opinion 3

Q.7 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate

would you give your first preference vote? DO NOT READ OUT

Fianna Fail 1

Fine Gael 2

Labour Party 3

Sinn Fein 4

Independent 5

Green Party 6

Workers Party 7

Socialist Party 8

Anti-Austerity Alliance - People

Before Profit Alliance (AAA-PBP) 9

RENUA Ireland 10

Social Democrats 11

Independent Alliance 12

Other specify _________________ 13

Don’t know 14

Would not vote 15

ASK Q.8 OF ALL CODED INDEPENDENT (CODE 5) AT Q.7

Q.8 And to which one of these groupings or types of Independents would you give your

first preference vote? SHOW CARD A

Anti-Austerity Alliance - People Before Profit

Alliance (AAA-PBP) 1

Green Party 2

Independent Alliance 3

RENUA Ireland 4

Social Democrats 5

Workers Party 6

Other Independent candidate 7

Don’t know 8

Q.9 Since 1989, every Irish Government has been a coalition. Given current party

strength, this seems likely in the future. Which of the following coalitions would you

like to see following the next General Election? SHOW CARD B

Fine Gael and Labour 1

Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil 2

Fine Gael and Sinn Féin 3

Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin 4

Fianna Fail, Labour and other parties or

independents 5

Fine Gael, Labour and other parties or

independents 6

Sinn Féin, Labour, and other parties or

independents 7

Other specify _________________ 8

Don’t know 9

Would not vote 10


DO NOT READ OUT.

Enda Kenny, Fine Gael 1

Micheal Martin, Fianna Fail 2

Gerry Adams, Sinn Fein 3

Joan Burton, Labour Party 4

Eamon Ryan, Green Party 5

Lucinda Creighton, Renua 6

Other specify _________________ 7

None 8

Q.11 How likely would you be to vote if there was a General Election tomorrow? PROBE

TO APPROPRIATE CODE

Would definitely vote 1

Would probably vote 2

Might/might not vote 3

Would probably not vote 4

Would definitely not vote 5

Don’t know 6

Q.12 And to which party or independent candidate did you give your first preference vote

in the last General Election? DO NOT READ OUT

Fianna Fail 1

Fine Gael 2

Labour Party 3

Green Party 4

Workers Party 5

Sinn Fein 6

Socialist Party 7

Independent 8

People Before Profit Alliance 9

Anti-Austerity Alliance 10

Other specify _________________ 11

Don’t know 12

Did not vote 13

CLASSIFICATION

C.1 Record gender of respondent

Male 1

Female 2

C.2 Exact age of respondent

TYPE IN EXACT AGE +

RECORD BELOW

18 – 24 1

25 - 34 2

35 - 44 3

45 - 54 4

55 - 64 5

65 years + 6

C.3 Marital Status

Single 1

Married 2

Cohabitating 3

Widowed 4

Separated/divorced 5

C.4 How many adults including yourself (aged 15+) live in the Household?

TYPE IN NUMBER

C.5 How many children (under 15 yrs) live in the Household?

TYPE IN NUMBER

C.6 Do you have a telephone at home?

Yes 1 RECORD TEL

NO

No 2

C.7 Would you be willing to take part in an interview like this again?

Yes 1

No 2

C.8 Are you an Irish citizen or not

Yes 1

No 2

IF NO

In which country were you born?____________________

C.9 Are you …..

Working full time (30+ hrs) 1

Working Part time (-30 hrs) 2

Self employed (incld farmers) 3

Unemployed 4

Home duties 5

Retired 6

Student 7

C.10 Are you yourself the chief wage earner in your household or not? That is the person

who contributes most money to the household income?

Yes 1

No 2

OCCUPATION OF CHIEF WAGE EARNER

(If farmer, state acreage. If proprietor/manager/supervisor, state number of employees. If

unemployed for over a year or widow on State Pension, ask about Chief Wage Earner).

NOW CODE Class

AB 1

C1 2

C2 3

DE 4

F50+ 5

F50- 6

NB: RESPONDENTS PRECISE LOCATION IS RECORDED AS PART OF THE

INTERVIEWER ASSIGNMENT NUMBER

RESPONDENTS NAME (BLOCK) MR/MRS/MISS

_________________________________________

FULL HOME POSTAL ADDRESS

________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

I certify that this is a true, accurate and complete interview taken in accordance

with my instructions, and conducted according to the guidelines set out in the

ICC/ESOMAR International Code of Marketing and Social Research Practice.

Interviewer Name

___________________________________________________________

Interviewer No. Assignment No.

Documents

Sunday Times /Behaviour & Attitudesbanda.ie/wp-content/uploads/7214Sunday-Times-PreElection-Poll2.pdf · 12th Dec, 2011 20th Feb 2012 f/w : 15th – 20th Feb. 2012 17th Apr, 2012