The Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes Poll2 days ago · Alittlefamiliar 29.4 26.3 32.5 28.3 32.9 25.6 21.5 33.0 Notatallfamiliar 10.4 8.5 12.3 6.5 12.5 14.9 6.8 12.5 White Ohio

The Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes PollIn partnership with Oakland University and Ohio Northern University

October 9, 2020

Contents2020 Vote Choice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3First Presidential Debate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9Transition of Power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16Public Figure Approval . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22The Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42Election Law . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55

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The Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes Poll was conducted between 9/30/20 and 10/8/20 in partnershipwith Oakland University (Michigan) and Ohio Northern University.

The survey was conducted online among likely voters in Michigan (n = 1134), Ohio (n = 1009), Pennsylvania(n = 1140), and Wisconsin (n = 883) using Qualtrics, an online sample aggregator. Sampled individuals wereemailed by Qualtrics and responded using a personalized link to the survey.

The survey included quotas for age and gender for each state. The quota for age was based on the 2016Voting and Registration Supplement to the Current Population Survey. The quota for gender was based ondata from the 2017 American Community Survey. The survey also included quotas for central metro areasand fringe metro areas at the county level based on data from the U.S. Census, as well as the 2013 NationalCenter for Health Statistics’ (NCHS) Urban-Rural Classification Scheme for Counties.

The survey results for all states are weighted by gender, education, race/ethnicity, and annual householdincome to be representative of each state’s population. In this survey, the design factors were: 1.09 (Michigan),1.02 (Ohio), 1.06 (Pennsylvania), 1.05 (Wisconsin). The overall margins of error were: ±3.2% (Michigan),±3.1% (Ohio), ±3.1% (Pennsylvania), ±3.4% (Wisconsin). For all states, the sample sizes and margins oferror are applicable only to overall results, indicated by highlighted columns in the following tables. Columnswithout highlighting refer either to demographic subgroups or to questions asked only of subgroups ofrespondents; consequently, such columns necessarily have a higher margin of error. Total column percentagesmay not add to 100% due to rounding error.

This project was funded by the Baldwin Wallace University Community Research Institute, Oakland University(Michigan), and Ohio Northern University.

Sample size Margin of errorMichigan 1134 ±3.2%Ohio 1009 ±3.1%Pennsylvania 1140 ±3.1%Wisconsin 883 ±3.4%

2

2020 Vote ChoiceQ1

If the 2020 presidential election were held today, for whom would you vote? (If you already voted, pleaseindicate which candidate you voted for.)

Response Mich. Ohio Penn. Wisc.Joe Biden (Democrat) 50.2 45.4 49.6 49.2Donald Trump (Republican) 43.2 47.0 44.5 42.5Howie Hawkins (Green Party / write in) 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.1Jo Jorgensen (Libertarian) 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.8Another candidate 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.5Unsure 4.3 5.2 4.0 6.0

WhiteMichigan Gender Party ID 4 Yr Deg?

Response All M F Dem Rep Ind Y NJoe Biden (Democrat) 50.2 47.0 53.4 93.9 4.0 43.9 45.9 43.7Donald Trump (Republican) 43.2 46.5 39.8 2.3 92.0 39.0 49.0 49.2Howie Hawkins (Green Party / write in) 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.2 1.7 0.5 0.5Jo Jorgensen (Libertarian) 1.1 0.9 1.3 0.6 0.5 3.1 0.8 1.5Another candidate 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.6 0.4Unsure 4.3 4.3 4.4 2.4 2.8 11.0 3.2 4.6

WhiteOhio Gender Party ID 4 Yr Deg?


WhitePennsylvania Gender Party ID 4 Yr Deg?


3

WhiteWisconsin Gender Party ID 4 Yr Deg?


4

Q2

How do you plan on voting in the presidential election this year? (If you already voted, please indicate howyou voted.)

Response Mich. Ohio Penn. Wisc.In person on election day 43.4 47.7 60.6 43.7In person before the election 3.3 9.4 3.6 9.6By mail or absentee ballot 50.6 39.3 32.7 44.5Unsure 2.6 3.7 3.1 2.3


Response All M F Dem Rep Ind Y NIn person on election day 43.4 47.9 39.0 27.6 62.9 40.9 48.0 44.0In person before the election 3.3 3.4 3.2 3.9 2.1 4.3 2.7 2.7By mail or absentee ballot 50.6 46.3 55.0 67.0 32.2 50.2 48.8 49.9Unsure 2.6 2.4 2.8 1.6 2.8 4.6 0.5 3.4







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Q3

(Note: Because early and absentee voting started later in Ohio than in the other three statessurveyed, this question was not shown to Ohio respondents.)Have you already voted in the presidential election this year?


Response All M F Dem Rep Ind Y NYes 28.6 33 24.5 40.5 20.3 19.4 33.8 23.9No 71.4 67 75.5 59.5 79.7 80.6 66.2 76.1


Response All M F Dem Rep Ind Y NYes 13.1 17.2 9.2 14.7 12.6 9.6 19.9 8No 86.9 82.8 90.8 85.3 87.4 90.4 80.1 92


Response All M F Dem Rep Ind Y NYes 32.5 33.6 31.4 44 30.1 18.9 37.8 30.1No 67.5 66.4 68.6 56 69.9 81.1 62.2 69.9

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Q4

How enthusiastic are you about voting in this year’s presidential election?

Response Mich. Ohio Penn. Wisc.Very enthusiastic 61.1 54.9 60.0 56.7Somewhat enthusiastic 23.1 25.5 26.0 24.9Not so enthusiastic 10.8 12.2 9.7 12.2Not at all enthusiastic 5.0 7.4 4.3 6.2


Response All M F Dem Rep Ind Y NVery enthusiastic 61.1 64.8 57.6 65.0 66.4 43.9 67.0 59.7Somewhat enthusiastic 23.1 22.0 24.1 22.3 22.9 24.9 20.6 23.2Not so enthusiastic 10.8 8.4 13.1 9.4 7.2 20.2 8.4 11.8Not at all enthusiastic 5.0 4.7 5.2 3.3 3.5 11.0 4.0 5.2







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Q5

(Note: asked only of Michigan respondents)If the election for the U.S. Senate were held today, would you be more likely to vote for Democrat GaryPeters or Republican John James?


Response All M F Dem Rep Ind Y NJohn James, Republican 42.1 47.4 36.9 4.6 89.7 33.5 50.8 45.7Gary Peters, Democrat 48.0 45.1 51.0 88.5 5.5 41.7 43.8 42.9Unsure 9.9 7.5 12.1 6.9 4.8 24.8 5.3 11.4

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First Presidential DebateQ6

Did you watch, listen to, or read about the Presidential Debate that took place in Cleveland on September29?

Response Mich. Ohio Penn. Wisc.Yes 78.4 81.1 81.8 81No 21.6 18.9 18.2 19


Response All M F Dem Rep Ind Y NYes 78.4 82.8 74.2 78.2 81.3 73.7 87.3 75.4No 21.6 17.2 25.8 21.8 18.7 26.3 12.7 24.6


Response All M F Dem Rep Ind Y NYes 81.1 82.1 80.5 85.3 79.3 77.7 85.6 79.9No 18.9 17.9 19.5 14.7 20.7 22.3 14.4 20.1


Response All M F Dem Rep Ind Y NYes 81.8 84.1 79.7 83 82 77.8 87.5 78.4No 18.2 15.9 20.3 17 18 22.2 12.5 21.6


Response All M F Dem Rep Ind Y NYes 81 84.9 77.4 85.1 80.6 75.4 84.8 79.5No 19 15.1 22.6 14.9 19.4 24.6 15.2 20.5

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Q7

(This question was asked only to respondents who indicated in Q6 that they had watched,listened to, or read about the September 29 Presidential Debate.)Regardless of which candidate you happen to support, who do you think did the better job in the firstpresidential debate on September 29: Donald Trump or Joe Biden?

Response Mich. Ohio Penn. Wisc.Biden 52.2 48.6 49.0 52.4Trump 31.8 33.2 33.6 29.7Unsure 16.0 18.2 17.4 17.9

Margin of error (applicable only to this page): ±4.0%

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Q8

(This question was asked only to respondents who indicated in Q6 that they had watched,listened to, or read about the September 29 Presidential Debate.)Did the debate make you more or less likely to vote for Donald Trump?

Response Mich. Ohio Penn. Wisc.More likely 21.1 23.9 23.7 17.8Less likely 36.4 36.0 34.5 39.5No difference 42.5 40.2 41.8 42.7


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Q9

(This question was asked only to respondents who indicated in Q6 that they had watched,listened to, or read about the September 29 Presidential Debate.)Did the debate make you more or less likely to vote for Joe Biden?



12

Q10

(This question was asked only to respondents who indicated in Q6 that they had watched,listened to, or read about the September 29 Presidential Debate.)Did the debate make you more or less likely to vote for a candidate other than Donald Trump or Joe Biden?



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Q11

(This question was asked only to respondents who indicated in Q6 that they had watched,listened to, or read about the September 29 Presidential Debate.)After watching, listening to, or reading about the debate, do you have a more favorable or less favorableopinion of Donald Trump?

Response Mich. Ohio Penn. Wisc.Much more favorable 18.0 18.7 18.3 15.6Somewhat more favorable 8.4 8.9 8.9 9.5No difference 23.8 23.0 22.2 21.3Somewhat less favorable 9.9 9.4 12.7 11.2Much less favorable 40.0 40.0 38.0 42.5


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Q12

(This question was asked only to respondents who indicated in Q6 that they had watched,listened to, or read about the September 29 Presidential Debate.)After watching, listening to, or reading about the debate, do you have a more favorable or less favorableopinion of Joe Biden?

Response Mich. Ohio Penn. Wisc.Much more favorable 27.6 23.1 23.8 25.2Somewhat more favorable 14.6 19.0 20.5 18.6No difference 22.9 25.1 23.3 24.8Somewhat less favorable 11.1 9.0 10.3 10.4Much less favorable 23.8 23.9 22.2 21.0


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Transition of PowerQ13

If Donald Trump claimed victory in the November 2020 presidential election before all of the votes werecounted, how much would you trust the accuracy of this claim?

Response Mich. Ohio Penn. Wisc.A lot 21.8 24.9 22.8 18.5Somewhat 14.8 15.4 17.3 14.9Not much 14.1 14.6 13.5 17.0Not at all 39.2 33.2 37.3 39.0Unsure 10.0 11.8 9.2 10.7


Response All M F Dem Rep Ind Y NA lot 21.8 25.2 18.6 3.0 47.6 14.2 25.1 24.0Somewhat 14.8 14.6 14.9 8.5 20.9 16.8 15.0 16.0Not much 14.1 14.6 13.6 14.4 12.3 16.8 12.5 13.4Not at all 39.2 36.4 42.0 69.2 7.5 35.0 38.1 35.3Unsure 10.0 9.2 10.8 5.0 11.7 17.2 9.4 11.3





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Q14

If Joe Biden claimed victory in the November 2020 presidential election before all of the votes were counted,how much would you trust the accuracy of this claim?

Response Mich. Ohio Penn. Wisc.A lot 23.6 19.1 21.6 21.0Somewhat 20.6 22.8 19.1 22.4Not much 18.3 18.1 21.5 21.3Not at all 25.7 28.5 27.7 24.3Unsure 11.7 11.5 10.1 11.0







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Q15

If Joe Biden loses the election, do you think he will accept the results and concede once the votes have beencertified?

Response Mich. Ohio Penn. Wisc.Yes 58.1 59.2 58.0 58.2No 22.2 22.2 23.6 23.4Unsure 19.7 18.5 18.4 18.4


Response All M F Dem Rep Ind Y NYes 58.1 62.7 53.8 76.8 40.1 52.3 65.9 53.9No 22.2 19.9 24.4 8.1 37.7 22.9 18.8 25.5Unsure 19.7 17.4 21.8 15.1 22.2 24.8 15.3 20.6







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Q16

If Donald Trump loses the election, do you think he will accept the results and concede once the votes havebeen certified?

Response Mich. Ohio Penn. Wisc.Yes 23.3 25.5 25.0 22.8No 58.0 53.6 57.1 58.0Unsure 18.8 20.9 17.9 19.2


Response All M F Dem Rep Ind Y NYes 23.3 29.0 17.8 7.4 43.2 20.1 34.2 21No 58.0 52.5 63.3 79.3 31.2 62.4 50.8 58Unsure 18.8 18.4 18.9 13.4 25.6 17.5 15.0 21







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Public Figure ApprovalQ17.1

Is your opinion of the following people or organizations in public life favorable or unfavorable? - DonaldTrump

Response Mich. Ohio Penn. Wisc.Favorable 43.1 44.1 43.4 41.9Unfavorable 52.8 51.4 52.6 54.5Unsure 4.1 4.5 4.0 3.6


Response All M F Dem Rep Ind Y NFavorable 43.1 46.3 39.9 3.7 90.1 39.4 48.3 49.0Unfavorable 52.8 49.8 55.8 93.0 6.7 53.5 49.2 46.2Unsure 4.1 3.8 4.3 3.3 3.3 7.0 2.4 4.7




Response All M F Dem Rep Ind Y NFavorable 43.4 46.9 40.1 8.5 83 41.4 46.3 49.4Unfavorable 52.6 50.2 55.0 88.1 14 50.2 50.7 46.8Unsure 4.0 2.9 5.0 3.5 3 8.5 3.0 3.9



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Q17.2

Is your opinion of the following people or organizations in public life favorable or unfavorable? - Joe Biden










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Q17.3

Is your opinion of the following people or organizations in public life favorable or unfavorable? - Mike Pence










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Q17.4

Is your opinion of the following people or organizations in public life favorable or unfavorable? - KamalaHarris










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Q17.5

Is your opinion of the following people or organizations in public life favorable or unfavorable? - MitchMcConnell










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Q18.1

Is your opinion of the following people or organizations in public life favorable or unfavorable? - Amy ConeyBarrett



Response All M F Dem Rep Ind Y NFavorable 29.4 35.2 23.8 6.8 54.5 30.6 39 29.4Unfavorable 29.7 30.7 28.9 48.2 12.0 23.8 36 25.3Unsure 40.9 34.1 47.4 45.0 33.5 45.6 25 45.3







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Q18.2

Is your opinion of the following people or organizations in public life favorable or unfavorable? - Ruth BaderGinsberg










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Q18.3

Is your opinion of the following people or organizations in public life favorable or unfavorable? - Nancy Pelosi










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Q18.4

Is your opinion of the following people or organizations in public life favorable or unfavorable? - Democratsin Congress










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Q18.5

Is your opinion of the following people or organizations in public life favorable or unfavorable? - Republicansin Congress










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Q19

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?

Response Mich. Ohio Penn. Wisc.Strongly approve 28.4 28.9 28.9 28.0Somewhat approve 17.2 20.2 18.0 16.6Somewhat disapprove 7.5 8.9 8.7 8.2Strongly disapprove 45.6 40.7 43.1 46.1Unsure 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.1


Response All M F Dem Rep Ind Y NStrongly approve 28.4 31.7 25.2 3.4 62.8 18.0 32.9 32.0Somewhat approve 17.2 16.7 17.8 3.6 29.5 23.0 18.2 19.5Somewhat disapprove 7.5 7.0 8.0 11.0 2.4 9.6 4.3 6.9Strongly disapprove 45.6 43.7 47.4 81.6 4.0 46.6 43.6 39.8Unsure 1.2 0.9 1.6 0.5 1.2 2.8 0.9 1.7





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33

Q20

Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Trump is handling the economy?








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35

Q21

Do you approve or disapprove of President Trump’s response to the coronavirus outbreak?








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37

Q22

Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job uniting the country: DonaldTrump or Joe Biden?



Response All M F Dem Rep Ind Y NBiden 51.0 48.6 53.4 92.3 6.5 46.3 48.0 45.1Trump 37.3 38.8 35.7 2.3 80.7 30.8 40.3 43.4Unsure 11.8 12.6 11.0 5.4 12.8 22.9 11.7 11.4







38

Q23

Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job handling the protests thathave been happening in different parts of the country: Donald Trump or Joe Biden?










39

Q24

Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job reducing violence in thecountry: Donald Trump or Joe Biden?










40

Q25

Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job handling the coronavirusoutbreak: Donald Trump or Joe Biden?










41

The IssuesQ26

How familiar are you with the news about President Trump’s federal tax returns?

Response Mich. Ohio Penn. Wisc.Very familiar 31.4 32.1 31.6 27.9Somewhat familiar 28.7 27.9 30.8 32.4A little familiar 29.4 30.4 29.3 30.7Not at all familiar 10.4 9.6 8.4 9.0


Response All M F Dem Rep Ind Y NVery familiar 31.4 35.1 27.9 32.9 31.3 28.9 42.7 26.5Somewhat familiar 28.7 30.1 27.3 32.4 23.4 30.7 29.0 28.0A little familiar 29.4 26.3 32.5 28.3 32.9 25.6 21.5 33.0Not at all familiar 10.4 8.5 12.3 6.5 12.5 14.9 6.8 12.5







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Q27

Do you view President Trump more favorably or less favorably because of the news about his federal taxreturns, or has your opinion not changed?

Response Mich. Ohio Penn. Wisc.Much more favorably 7.1 8.7 7.7 6.7Somewhat more favorably 5.2 4.9 5.8 4.3No change 51.8 50.3 48.7 49.1Somewhat less favorably 6.5 6.9 6.6 7.6Much less favorably 24.8 23.7 26.4 28.0Unsure 4.6 5.6 4.8 4.4


Response All M F Dem Rep Ind Y NMuch more favorably 7.1 9.7 4.6 2.3 14.3 4.2 10.5 6.4Somewhat more favorably 5.2 7.7 2.8 1.9 9.8 3.8 8.0 4.4No change 51.8 49.9 53.6 40.1 64.6 52.8 48.9 55.4Somewhat less favorably 6.5 5.4 7.5 8.3 4.8 5.9 6.7 5.7Much less favorably 24.8 24.0 25.6 44.8 2.0 24.8 23.6 22.4Unsure 4.6 3.3 5.8 2.7 4.4 8.6 2.4 5.6





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44

Q28

As you may know, U.S. Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg passed away in September, creating anopening on the Supreme Court. Do you think her replacement should be nominated by Donald Trump andconfirmed by the current U.S. Senate, or should this be left to the winner of the presidential election and aSenate vote next year?

Response Mich. Ohio Penn. Wisc.Nominated by Trump and confirmed 41.8 45.2 43.7 43.7Left to the winner of the election 48.2 45.9 49.1 48.4Unsure 9.9 9.0 7.3 7.9


Response All M F Dem Rep Ind Y NNominated by Trump and confirmed 41.8 47.9 35.9 4.6 85.9 39.0 49.1 46.7Left to the winner of the election 48.2 45.3 51.1 83.7 7.8 48.1 46.4 43.0Unsure 9.9 6.8 13.0 11.7 6.3 12.9 4.5 10.3







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Q29

Do you agree or disagree with Donald Trump’s decision to nominate someone for the U.S. Supreme Courtvacancy before the presidential election?

Response Mich. Ohio Penn. Wisc.Strongly agree 34.5 39.1 36.6 34.9Somewhat agree 9.7 11.8 12.3 12.3Somewhat disagree 8.4 9.0 8.1 8.6Strongly disagree 38.9 33.4 37.0 37.5Unsure 8.5 6.7 6.0 6.6


Response All M F Dem Rep Ind Y NStrongly agree 34.5 39.5 29.6 2.6 71.8 32.9 40.0 39.4Somewhat agree 9.7 11.0 8.3 4.4 14.9 11.0 12.4 9.1Somewhat disagree 8.4 7.9 8.9 11.8 4.7 8.1 7.9 7.1Strongly disagree 38.9 35.2 42.5 72.2 2.6 35.9 34.6 35.3Unsure 8.5 6.4 10.6 9.0 5.9 12.1 5.2 9.2





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47

Q30

Do you agree or disagree with Senate Republicans’ decision to hold confirmation hearings for Donald Trump’snomination to the U.S. Supreme Court before the presidential election?

Response Mich. Ohio Penn. Wisc.Strongly agree 31.2 34.5 32.6 31.1Somewhat agree 10.9 11.5 13.5 12.7Somewhat disagree 6.9 8.3 7.6 7.4Strongly disagree 38.5 32.7 34.8 37.5Unsure 12.5 13.1 11.5 11.3







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49

Q31

Do you feel more motivated to vote or equally motivated to vote in the U.S. presidential election as a resultof the U.S. Supreme Court vacancy?

Response Mich. Ohio Penn. Wisc.More motivated 40.8 40.1 41.0 38.7Equally motivated 46.6 48.9 49.3 50.7Unsure 12.6 11.1 9.7 10.6


Response All M F Dem Rep Ind Y NMore motivated 40.8 45.5 36.2 46.7 41.6 27.3 46.1 36.2Equally motivated 46.6 46.0 47.2 43.2 46.6 53.4 51.3 46.8Unsure 12.6 8.5 16.6 10.1 11.7 19.3 2.6 17.0







50

Q32

Do you support or oppose the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare?

Response Mich. Ohio Penn. Wisc.Strongly support 32.0 33.3 33.1 32.1Somewhat support 23.3 22.1 22.7 25.9Somewhat oppose 13.7 14.4 13.2 13.9Strongly oppose 23.4 21.9 22.5 19.8Unsure 7.6 8.3 8.5 8.3


Response All M F Dem Rep Ind Y NStrongly support 32.0 31.3 32.7 60.3 7.0 19.1 29.5 26.8Somewhat support 23.3 22.9 23.7 27.8 16.6 26.3 26.5 21.9Somewhat oppose 13.7 13.2 14.1 5.4 22.0 15.7 16.6 13.9Strongly oppose 23.4 24.6 22.2 1.4 48.1 24.1 22.4 28.6Unsure 7.6 7.9 7.3 5.1 6.3 14.8 5.0 8.8





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Q33

Which of the following statements comes closest to your views on abortion?

Response Mich. Ohio Penn. Wisc.It should always be legal 27.6 24.7 28.5 25.9It should be mostly legal 25.8 26.6 26.0 24.7It should be mostly illegal 23.7 24.8 24.3 26.0It should always be illegal 12.8 13.6 11.6 13.4Unsure 10.1 10.4 9.6 10.1


Response All M F Dem Rep Ind Y NIt should always be legal 27.6 23.6 31.2 42.0 13.7 23.1 30.5 24.6It should be mostly legal 25.8 27.5 24.3 32.0 19.3 25.1 30.8 22.5It should be mostly illegal 23.7 24.8 22.6 13.2 33.0 28.4 22.4 27.0It should always be illegal 12.8 11.6 14.0 4.4 24.7 8.4 10.7 15.5Unsure 10.1 12.5 7.9 8.5 9.2 15.1 5.7 10.4





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54

Election LawQ34

Please indicate whether you favor or oppose the following ideas about election policy: Automatically registeringall people to vote








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56

Q35

Please indicate whether you favor or oppose the following ideas about election policy: Making Election Day anational holiday








57



58

Q36

Please indicate whether you favor or oppose the following ideas about election policy: Removing inaccurateand duplicate registrations from voter lists using automatic methods







Response All M F Dem Rep Ind Y NStrongly support 45.2 46.3 44.2 41.3 51.2 40.3 49.1 43Somewhat support 27.4 30.7 24.1 27.5 26.9 28.8 30.4 28Somewhat oppose 8.3 8.4 8.2 7.9 7.0 13.2 8.0 8Strongly oppose 5.0 4.3 5.7 6.5 3.7 4.1 5.3 5Unsure 14.1 10.4 17.7 16.9 11.2 13.6 7.2 16

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60

Q37

Please indicate whether you favor or oppose the following ideas about election policy: Allowing people toregister to vote on Election Day at the polls








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62

Q38

Please indicate whether you favor or oppose the following ideas about election policy: Requiring all voters toshow government-issued photo identification to vote








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64

Q39

Please indicate whether you favor or oppose the following ideas about election policy: Making ballot dropboxes more widely available in your community








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66

Q40

Please indicate whether you favor or oppose the following ideas about election policy: Mailing all registeredvoters an absentee ballot








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68

Q41

Please indicate whether you favor or oppose the following ideas about election policy: Mailing all registeredvoters an application for an absentee ballot








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Methodological notes

Baldwin Wallace University’s Great Lakes Poll, in partnership with Oakland University (Michigan) and OhioNorthern University, was conducted between 9/30/20 and 10/8/20.

Survey RespondentsThe survey was conducted online among likely voters in Michigan (n = 1134), Ohio (n = 1009), Pennsylvania(n = 1140), and Wisconsin (n = 883) using Qualtrics, an online sample aggregator. Sampled individuals wereemailed by Qualtrics and responded using a personalized link to the survey.

To achieve a representative sample, Qualtrics panel partners randomly select respondents for surveys whererespondents are highly likely to qualify. Each sample from the panel base is proportioned to the generalpopulation and then randomized before the survey is deployed. Potential respondents receive an emailinvitation to participate, which informs them that the survey is for research purposes only, how long thesurvey is expected to take, and what incentives are available. Incentives include cash, airline miles, gift cards,redeemable points, sweepstakes entries, and vouchers. To avoid self-selection bias, the survey invitation doesnot include specific details about the contents of the survey.

The survey included quotas for age and gender for each state. The quota for age was based on the 2016Voting and Registration Supplement to the Current Population Survey. The quota for gender was based ondata from the 2017 American Community Survey. The survey also included quotas for central metro areasand fringe metro areas at the county level based on data from the U.S. Census, as well as the 2013 NationalCenter for Health Statistics’ (NCHS) Urban-Rural Classification Scheme for Counties.

Responses in this survey were weighted by gender, race/ethnicity, annual household income, and education tobe representative of each state’s population. Weights of individual respondents were capped. The margin oferror was computed using an adjustment of the classical Central Limit Theorem margin of error associatedto random samples. Specifically, the margin of error (computed at a 95% confidence level) was inflatedrelative to the ordinary calculation by a factor of

√1 + cv(weights)2, where cv denotes the coefficient of

variation. In this survey, the design factors were: 1.09 (Michigan), 1.02 (Ohio), 1.06 (Pennsylvania), 1.05(Wisconsin). The overall margins of error were: ±3.2% (Michigan), ±3.1% (Ohio), ±3.1% (Pennsylvania),±3.4% (Wisconsin). The overall margin of error was ±3.1%. This margin of error assumes that the weightedestimates are approximately unbiased. This assumption implicitly relies on the assertion that any differencesbetween the survey sample and the target population on key survey outcomes are corrected by demographicraking. No analysis was conducted to validate that assertion.

The sample size and margin of error are applicable only to overall results, indicated by highlighted columnsin the preceding tables. Columns without highlighting refer either to demographic subgroups or to questionsasked only of subgroups of respondents; consequently, such columns necessarily have a higher margin of error.Total column percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding error.

The survey was funded by the Baldwin Wallace University Community Research Institute, Oakland University(Michigan), and Ohio Northern University.

Quality ChecksTo encourage respondents to provide thoughtful answers, we included the following question towards thebeginning of the survey: “We care about the quality of our survey data and hope to receive the most accuratemeasures of your opinions, so it is important to us that you provide an honest and thoughtful answer to eachquestion in the survey. Do you commit to providing honest and thoughtful answers to the questions in thissurvey?” Respondents who did not select “I will provide my best answers” were not allowed to continue withthe survey. The survey also included a speeding check, measured as one-half the median soft launch time tocomplete the survey.

Randomized Response OptionsThroughout the survey, we randomized the order in which responses appeared to minimize response-orderbias. For Q1, we randomized the order in which the major candidates appeared. For Q5, we randomized the

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order in which the candidates appeared. For Q6, we randomized the order of “yes” and “no”. The order ofthe sub-parts of Q17 and Q18 was randomized. The order of Q34 through Q41 was randomized.

Additional Information about Quotas for Central Metro Areas and Fringe Metro AreasTo ensure that urban respondents were not overrepresented and that rural areas were not underrepresented, weinstituted quotas for large central metro areas and large fringe metro areas. To do so, we utilized populationdata at the county level from the U.S. Census, as well as the 2013 NCHS’ Urban-Rural Classification Schemefor Counties.

In Michigan, the NCHS classified Wayne County and Kent County as central metro areas. The Detroit fringemetro area included Lapeer, Livingston, Macomb, Oakland, and St. Clair counties. The Grand Rapids fringemetro area included Barry, Montcalm, and Ottawa counties.

In Ohio, the NCHS classified Cuyahoga County, Franklin County, and Hamilton County as central metroareas. The Cleveland fringe metro area included Geauga, Lake, Lorain, and Medina counties. The Cincinnatifringe metro area included Brown, Butler, Clermont, and Warren counties. The Columbus fringe metro areaincluded Delaware, Fairfield, Hocking, Licking, Madison, Morrow, Perry, Pickaway, and Union counties.

In Pennsylvania, the NCHS classified Philadelphia County and Allegheny County as large central metro areas.The Pittsburgh fringe metro area included Armstrong, Beaver, Butler, Fayette, Washington, and Westmorelandcounties. The Philadelphia fringe metro area included Bucks, Chester, Delaware, and Montgomery counties.

In Wisconsin, the NCHS classified Milwaukee as a large central metro area. The Milwaukee fringe metro areaincluded Ozaukee, Washington, and Waukesha counties.

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Survey demography: Michigan

Sample size: n = 1134 likely voters

Gender n % (raw) % (wtd)Male 550 48.5 49.1Female 581 51.2 50.7Non-binary 3 0.3 0.1

Education n % (raw) % (wtd)High School or less 307 27.1 37.8Some College 383 33.8 32.9Finished 4-year degree (or more) 444 39.2 29.4

Race/ethnicity n % (raw) % (wtd)White/Caucasian 939 82.8 84.7Black or African American 110 9.7 13.0Other* 85 7.5 2.3

Income n % (raw) % (wtd)$0 - $25,000 221 19.5 23.3$25,001 - $50,000 325 28.7 24.9$50,001 - $75,000 228 20.1 18.4$75,001 - $100,000 158 13.9 12.2$100,001 - $150,000 134 11.8 12.6More than $150,000 68 6.0 8.6

Age n % (raw) % (wtd)18 to 24 years 73 6.4 6.325 to 34 years 196 17.3 14.535 to 44 years 162 14.3 14.545 to 64 years 439 38.7 41.865 years or older 264 23.3 22.9

Party ID** n % (raw) % (wtd)Democrat 474 41.8 42.2Republican 415 36.6 37.0Independent 245 21.6 20.8

* This category includes, but is not limited to: Asian or Asian-American, Hispanic or Latino, Middle Eastern, Mixed Race or Multi-racial, Native American.

** Party ID was not used as a weighting characteristic.

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Survey demography: Ohio










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Survey demography: Pennsylvania










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Survey demography: Wisconsin










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Documents

The Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes Poll2 days ago · Alittlefamiliar 29.4 26.3 32.5 28.3 32.9 25.6 21.5 33.0 Notatallfamiliar 10.4 8.5 12.3 6.5 12.5 14.9 6.8 12.5 White Ohio