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End Users Needs Report: Weather and climate data for Northern Finnish winter tourism centers

Blue-Action: Arctic Impact on Weather and Climate is a Research and Innovation action (RIA) funded by the Horizon 2020 Work programme topics addressed: BG-10-2016 Impact of Arctic changes on the weather and climate of the Northern Hemisphere. Start date: 1 December 2016. End date: 1 March 2021.

The Blue-Action project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under Grant Agreement No 727852.

Blue-Action Deliverable D5.1

About this document

Deliverable: D5.1 End User Needs ReportWork package in charge: WP5 Developing and Valuing Climate Services Actual delivery date for this deliverable: 1 July 2017Dissemination level: CO

Lead authorsArctic Centre University of Lapland: Pamela LesserRukakeskus Corporation: Jusu Toivonen

Other contributing authorsArctic Centre, University of Lapland: Roxana Contreras and Martin Coath

ReviewerDanish Meteorological Institute: Chiara Bearzotti

We support the Blue Growth! Visit us on: www.blue-action.eu Follow us on Twitter: @BG10Blueaction

Disclaimer: This material reflects only the author’s view and the Commission is not responsible for any use that may be made of the information it contains.

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Index

Summary for publication................................................................................................................4Work carried out............................................................................................................................5

Climate and Tourism...................................................................................................................5Winter Tourism in Finnish Lapland: The Case of Rukakeskus Corporation.............................7Case Study Methodology.............................................................................................................8End User Needs Report Methodology.........................................................................................9Ruka’s Anticipated Data Needs.................................................................................................11Challenges and Opportunities for Climate Services..................................................................12

Main results achieved..................................................................................................................13Progress beyond the state of the art...........................................................................................14Impact..........................................................................................................................................14Lessons learned and Links built..................................................................................................15Contribution to the top level objectives of Blue-Action................................................................16References (Bibliography)...........................................................................................................16Dissemination and exploitation of Blue-Action results.................................................................17

Peer reviewed articles................................................................................................................17Uptake by the targeted audiences..............................................................................................17Intellectual property rights resulting from this deliverable.......................................................17

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Summary for publicationResearch on the effects of climate change on the tourism industry is relatively new. Currently, this field has approached a transition phase, from observing climate change effects on a system to assessing and understanding its vulnerable points and studying adaptation measures, which is what is needed for future development strategies.

Tourism in Finnish Lapland, and in particular the ski industry, is highly dependent on climate and weather conditions as these have a direct impact on the timing and availability of snow, snow making, and snow storage conditions. While the effects of climate change are typically described in negative terms, the potential impacts during the winter are generally seen as positive. For example, milder winters in the north can be a positive phenomenon since tourists usually cannot participate in outdoor activities during extremely cold days.

On the other hand, studies also suggest that Northern Fennoscandia is one of the fastest warming regions in Europe, and Finland is a country that has one of the fastest warming rates over the last half century, with the highest increases in temperature in November, December and January. For the skiing industry, proper winter conditions are key to commercial success.

The client for this case study, Rukakeskus Corporation, is a family business in charge of the ski resorts of Ruka and Pyhä, in Northern Finland. Rukakeskus is one of the leading tourism companies in Finland employing around 200 people and responsible for nearly 20 per cent of annual ski pass sales with approximately 26 million euros in revenue. One of their primary business objectives is to continue to be the most snow-sure ski resort in Europe as Ruka already provides more than 200 ski days a year, more than any other ski resort in the world apart from those located on glaciers. Ruka focuses on the early and late seasons since that is when very few other ski resorts have snow, and as a result, many training groups currently favor Ruka during those periods. Given the changes in climate that are already visible, it is a distinct possibility that even more race teams will gravitate to Ruka not only for the early and late seasons but for the entire ski season.

Ruka has successfully operated their ski resort for decades based on a combination of weather forecasts, planning and experience. However, Ruka has always prided itself on an extremely progressive energy efficient and green business, and they realize that with the Arctic warming at twice the rate, they have already seen changes in the duration of the ski season and know their operations will inevitably be further affected. Ruka has identified data they feel would help them in their decision-making and benefit their business. This includes long-term winter forecasts for temperature, wind, cloud cover, snow fall amounts, changes in the length of the winter season, estimates of when winter starts (“permanent” snow falls) and ends (snow melts) and global climate and weather trends such as El Niño and their affects in the ski resort area are

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of particular interest. For the summer season, forecasts that include more detailed information about temperatures, rainfall, sunshine, and humidity would also be helpful. While Ruka has identified information they think would be useful, this deliverable is not intended as an analysis based on modelling data, but rather, Ruka’s first pass at providing their needs themselves. As the project continues, there will be an iterative process between modellers, the UoL and Ruka to determine what kind of data is not only useful for Ruka but feasible for the modelers to provide. As this deliverable is due Month 7, it has been too early to start this process. Thus, Deliverable 5.1 is supposed to be a first pass at identifying Ruka’s needs and will be subsequently revised as the project goes on.

Work carried out

The goal of the case study on tourism in Northern Finland is to assess the value of improved weather and climate predictions for short-term and mid-term planning of operations for ski centres in Northern Finland (Lapland and Northern Ostrobothnia). The first deliverable (D5.1) is an End User Needs Report detailing the information needs of the client, Rukakeskus. Its purpose is not to provide analytical results, but rather to lay out the business needs, priorities and information desired by Ruka to improve their decision making. The Report initiates the process of specifying the information needs of the company, including the degree of precision, and also looks into the feasibility of conducting a competitiveness assessment for the ski resort. The two partners involved in this deliverable are Rukakeskus and the Arctic Centre and they worked on the report jointly.

Climate and TourismIn general, it is agreed that climate and the tourism industry are strongly linked. A region’s tourism potential is largely defined by its climate and weather conditions [1]. Climate change has direct and indirect impacts on tourism; direct impacts refer to the availability of activities such as skiing and ice fishing (winter) or swimming and surfing (beach/summer) and the possibility to participate in them, while indirect impacts affect the natural and built environment, altering the attractiveness of the environment the tourism industry is based on [2].

The effects of climate change on the tourism industry may be negative or positive, depending on latitude, geographical location (coast versus mountains) and the nature of the industry, with great variabilities [3, 4]. For instance, northern coastal areas might benefit from warmer summers and a lengthening summer season, while Northern Finland might gain a competitive

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advantage due to the potential problems of lack of snowfall in southern Finland and central Europe (the Alps).

In the case of Finland, the possible impacts are seen, overall, as positive, especially during the summer season [3] and potentially in Northern Finland during the winter. However, the effects are expected to be detrimental to Southern Finland during the winter season as opportunities for snow-related activities are expected to decline in the future. On the other hand, studies suggest that Northern Fennoscandia is one of the fastest warming regions in Europe and Finland is a country that has shown one of the fastest warming rates over the last half century, with the highest increases in temperature in November, December and January [5, 6]. As a part of the Arctic, the weather conditions are closely linked to the changes occurring in the Arctic. For the whole winter tourism sector – from skiing centres to companies organizing tours and services/retail dependent on the presence of tourists – proper winter conditions are key to commercial success.

Nature-based tourism is regarded as very vulnerable to climate change [4], and this is critical in Finnish Lapland, where nature-based tourism provides more employment opportunities than any other regional industry [1]. Information on future climate and specific local weather conditions as well is fundamental for preparing and adapting to possible future change. For example, downhill skiing resorts makes regular use of artificial snowmaking, in order to secure their seasons (i.e. they are already well adapted for detrimental change), but this mechanism is not applicable to other services such as winter safaris, which are important in attracting foreign tourists [2, 1]; therefore, these tour operators are in a much more vulnerable position and will possibly face difficulties to adapt to changes.

In a 2006 study by Saarinen and Tervo [1], the entrepreneurs interviewed suggested that the most serious consequence on their business would be a shortening of the winter season, especially if the start of the season shifts permanently to very close or even after Christmas, since these periods play a critical role in bringing revenue. However in some respects, they see milder winters as a positive phenomenon, since tourists usually cannot participate in outdoor activities during extreme cold days. It is interesting to note that tourism operators around the Rovaniemi region have experienced losing customers to Levi and other regions in the northern parts of Finnish Lapland, due to warmer than usual winters [1].

The start of the winter season is a particularly critical time for tourism operators as winter conditions are normally less certain than later in the year, but in Northern Finland, large numbers of tourists expecting good snow conditions arrive throughout December and during the Christmas season. Moreover, several sport events are scheduled in Lapland during the fall. The recent cancellation of the FIS World Cup in slalom in Levi (Central Lapland) is a case in point

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as regards the challenges of a warming Northern Fennoscandia for tourism businesses [7]. This challenge has been also highlighted in the Lapland Climate Change Strategy 2030 [8].

Winter Tourism in Finnish Lapland: The Case of Rukakeskus CorporationThe case study will focus on Rukakeskus Corporation, a family business in charge of the ski resorts of Ruka and Pyhä, in Northern Finland. While the core business of the company is slope operations and maintenance, they also run rental shops and stores as well as provide accommodation services in both Ruka and Pyhä. Rukakeskus is one of the leading tourism companies in Finland and responsible for nearly 20 per cent of annual ski pass sales. They employ around 200 people, have a turnover of 26 million euros, and attract roughly 380,000 visitors annually. The resort itself is comprised of 34 slopes, 21 ski lifts and chairlifts, and has a lift capacity of 25,400 skiers per hour. The summit height is 492 meters with the longest slope being 1300 meters. Only man-made snow is used for the slopes (and also the resort), there is no natural snow cover. The amount of snow used for different activities varies, e.g. cross country trails only require a few inches of snow versus downhill slopes which require about half a meter.

Ruka has four main strategic objectives: to be the most profitable ski resort in Finland, to be the best ski resort for families in the world, to have the strongest ski resort brand in Finland, and to be the most snow-sure ski resort in Europe. On this last objective, Ruka provides more than 200 ski days a year, more than any other ski resort in the world, apart from ski resorts located on glaciers. The focus and comparative advantage is on the early and late seasons as that is when very few other ski resorts have snow. Currently Ruka is the first ski resort to open each year in Lapland for all customers, not just for the racing teams (although Ruka would like to attract the racing teams that practice in the Alps). Many training groups favor Ruka in the beginning of the season since Ruka is one of the few resorts open that early. As snow security is one of the most important features for a successful ski resort, the importance of always being the first open and the ability to ensure the season’s longevity (October to April for tourists but ending in June for racers) is paramount.

Snow storage is one way to ensure snow security and guarantee an early snow cover. A new method of snow storage was tested in Ruka in 2016 by forming three large snow piles, covering them with gauze and then overlaying them with sawdust in the spring. Half of the stored snow melted during the summer but the other half remained usable for the current ski season. As a result, Ruka was able to open its first slopes already in October. In addition to ensuring snow security, snow storage also improves energy efficiency. Because energy efficient snowmaking requires cold temperatures, using the snow from the previous winter reduces the need for snowmaking in warm and moist autumn weather.

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Since its inception, Ruka has endeavored to be one of the greenest ski resorts in the world. The Environmental Program of Ruka was established in 2008, and through the program, their greenhouse gas emissions have decreased by 80 per cent. In 2009, Ruka and Pyhä became the first ski resort in Finland to completely shift to renewable energy with the electricity being generated via hydropower and the buildings heated with biomass.

Ruka joined the Energy Efficiency Agreement in 2009, a voluntary tool to fulfill the energy efficiency obligations of the European Union, and has agreed to abide by the goal of 7.5 percent reduction in energy consumption set for Finland in the period of 2017-2025. An advanced monitoring system helps reduce environmental impacts by constantly observing electricity, heat and water consumption of the slopes and buildings, as well as the fuel consumption of the snow groomers and snowmobiles. Other technological improvements have been made such as automatizing the slope lighting in an effort to save electricity, and the snowmaking equipment in order to reduce energy consumption by ensuring that snowmaking takes place in the most suitable weather conditions.

Case Study MethodologySimply put, the main goal of this case study on winter tourism in Lapland, specifically that of the ski resort, Rukakeskus, is to determine whether or not improved weather and climate data enhance their business. For example, improved data should enable Ruka to make better-informed and more accurate decisions, which in turn should simultaneously increase Ruka’s competitiveness and financial viability while enhancing its resilience to the on-going challenges of climate change.

Lapland winter tourism centers require two-fold data. On the one hand, they need to plan for the next two to three seasons with respect to the probable beginning of the season and the need to make and use artificial snow (a major expenditure). Data based on the range of a half-year to two-year model resolution is needed. On the other hand, in the long-term, the companies need to plan investments that adapt their businesses to the changing climate while also simultaneously assessing the investment associated directly with winter activities against the future climate reality. In this case, a decadal model with high spatial resolution is the basis for the data to be produced in the case study. Both short-term and mid-term models are to be refined in the other work packages of the project.

This case study is closely linked to the annual operational cycle of the ski field end-user and the schedule will be adjusted to coincide with the winter operating season, with the aim of following two complete operating cycles. Model outputs forecasting the evolution of key parameters (e.g. October-December snow cover, summer snow-storage conditions) over the

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coming year and coming five-years will be collated for Rukakeskus in the January to March timeframe, with uncertainties in these predictions receiving particular emphasis. The end user will then use these forecasts in the seasonal and mid-term planning activities for the remainder of the year and into the new winter season, with guidance from the science groups. At the end of the year, the use and value of the data will be examined and refinements made to the procedure prior to the next forecasting cycle.

The assessment and evaluation of the data will focus both on the value of the information for the end user, particularly in terms of competitiveness, and the capacity of the end user to adjust business operations to improved information, both in the short-term and mid-term perspectives.

Model skill for the regions and variables of interest will be quantified based on hindcasts (obtained from the University of Hamburg) from the baseline and improved model configurations. A methodology will be proposed as part of the second deliverable for the case study to quantify the economic value of improved weather and climate information for the end user. The practical and qualitative value of the data for Ruka will be assessed in team meetings led by the resort director or the ski operations manager. As to the end product, the evaluation of the climate service prepared for Rukakeskus will be based on an assessment by the company in terms of the value of possible investments in which the data is used as well as the value of activities.

A minor element of the case study, although critical for the company as regards long-term planning, is an assessment of the competitiveness of Lapland ski resorts as compared to other European skiing centers in light of a changing climate. We already know that the snow conditions in Lapland will be less favorable in the future, but how does it compare to other destinations in Europe?

End User Needs Report MethodologyThe first deliverable, the End User Needs Report, identifies the process by which Ruka makes their current decisions and then aims to articulate the type of data they believe could improve their business operations and increase competitiveness with the other ski resorts throughout Europe.

While the process of documenting end user needs typically is used by businesses trying to evaluate the success of future products and often involves a multitude of stakeholders, there is only one stakeholder involved in this case study, Rukakeskus. It should be noted, however, that

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even if there is only one stakeholder around which the case study revolves, a meeting will be convened involving the tourism industry in Lapland toward the end of the Blue Action project and it is already built into the timeline. In addition, there are other opportunities to cast a broader net when it comes to stakeholders via the Nordic Climate KIC, one of the partners in Blue Action. After a discussion in early March 2017 with the Nordic Climate KIC, there is a possibility to apply for funding in order to convene a Business Stakeholder Panel in Lapland once the case study is further along. To date, it has been difficult to extract the hindcast data that has already been produced for the project let alone to test it against the ground truth data. Once this has been done, the accuracy of existing models can be assessed which then allows the next step to be taken to identify what type of data would not only be useful for Ruka but also feasible to obtain from the modellers. At this point it would be constructive to convene the panel in order to obtain feedback on the findings to date as well as to gather input on how the data could be improved. One of the benefits of working with the ski industry is that the operators are extremely collaborative and the practice is to share as much knowledge with one another as possible.

The initial end user needs identified in this report come directly from Rukakeskus and only from Rukakeskus. The information is based on two in-person interviews with the project leader (Jusu Toivonen) for Ruka, correspondence with him via email, and Ruka’s own summary of anticipated needs. The interviews lasted approximately one and two hours respectively and provided good insights into how the ski industry functions and what type of future information would be most valuable. The project leader did consult various specialists to try and identify data for all of the different operations involved in running a ski resort. For example, colleagues involved in actually making the snow provided different data than the environmental and management teams. None of the information given was confidential, and the project leader explicitly said they welcome the ability to share all information with the rest of the industry.

Rukakeskus does have a formal decision-making process for both deciding the goal for season opening (date) and when to start snow-making. The difficulty is that Ruka can never be certain what the weather will be in the fall, and therefore, they cannot simply follow their plans and processes as laid out. For example, before Ruka begins to store the snow, the opening date is only a goal because it is not knowable what the weather will be the next fall (and therefore, the company does not want to make a promise to customers that it cannot keep). The same uncertainties apply to snow-making. Plans are made for snow-making (according to Ruka’s processes and routines) well in advance, but the actual execution is always determined based on the weather conditions and forecasts, which are derived from the Finnish and Norwegian weather services. The experience of staff is an important part of the decision making since there is little weather data (and only for a few days at a time) that can be relied on. A problematic situation could be, for example, when the 5-day forecast in early October is

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promising good snow-making conditions, but the longer forecast (10-14 days) is predicting a warming trend after the cold snap. The question then becomes: will Ruka take a risk, make the snow, and "believe" the weather will be favourable despite the forecast, or do they wait? Ruka can make enough snow to open several slopes in five days, so these kind of situations are important and difficult. As long as there is no reliable data to use, the last call has to be always made, at least partially, based on experience and ‘gut’ feel. Hence, given these uncertainties, perhaps the most important ‘need’ is for greater precision and predictability. While certain kinds of information not available to them now could be useful in the future, such as the effects from El Nino years, what would be most beneficial is greater accuracy and more localized forecasts in order to make knowledge-based decisions as regards short-term planning and long-term investments.

One of the interesting questions that has arisen in the course of preparing this deliverable is whether or not a person’s own historical experience of weather patterns observed over decades is more accurate and helpful for operational decision-making purposes than the information obtained from improved climate and weather models. As climate services have not specifically been prepared for the ski industry to our knowledge, the particular climate service that is to be prepared for Rukakeskus has the potential to significantly impact not just the ski industry but the winter tourism sector in general.

There is one aspect of the methodology that should be noted as it remains a continuing challenge. There is a tremendous gap between modellers and end users when it comes to the knowledge base and the language used to communicate data needs. The team for this case study has come to realize that not only can the two groups not directly communicate (assuming end users are not also modellers) but ‘multiple layers’ are needed to translate the raw material from the models into something usable for end users. For example, at the University of Lapland, there are researchers who also have a great deal of expertise in modelling that interact directly with the other climate modellers in Blue Action. In turn those researchers communicate with other researchers who have worked more with the economic and business aspects of climate change, who then communicate the findings to Rukakeskus. This communication process is key to producing a successful climate service for an end user, but it also appears to be one of the most challenging aspects and a potential obstacle unless a more systematic process can be put in place to ensure on-going and smooth communications.

Ruka’s Anticipated Data Needs To improve their decision-making, especially for snow-making and snow-storage, Rukakeskus requires more accurate forecast data both in the short-term (the next two to three seasons) and over the mid- to long-term (a five- to ten-year time horizon). More accurate forecast data

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includes many different elements such as scale, where ideally a ‘micro-forecast’ focusing on the ski resort and immediate area could be provided. It must be noted though that even if a ‘micro-forecast’ were to be available, it would take years for Ruka to trust the data. Any business risks taken would be quite small, i.e. Ruka may decide to make just 30 percent more snow in January one year rather than double the production immediately. The predictability of snow-making conditions (i.e. cold, dry and not windy weather) is also crucial to Ruka’s decision when to make additional snow for the following ski season as the cost of snow making in January versus October is approximately one euro versus roughly 30 euros per cubic meter. Direct cost is not the only issue, however, as snow making conditions in winter impacts the decision on how much to make since Ruka must account for a 50 percent loss in their snow storage over the summer.

In the short term, the most helpful data would focus on the likely opening of the season, when to produce artificial snow and when/how to store it. Over the long-term, data that helps companies plan major investments to adapt to the changing climate such as infrastructure, expansions, etc. would be most useful. The particular focus is on snow conditions in the start of the winter season as well as during the high season (mid-February until end of March / mid-April). While both short- and long-term forecasts are interesting, Ruka is especially interested in long-term results. And they have also noted that even if precise data is preferable, patterns and estimates can also be helpful.

In terms of seasonal data, for the winter season, more precise information on the following is desirable: temperatures, wind, cloudiness, snow fall amounts, changes in the length of the winter season, estimates of when winter starts (“permanent” snow falls) and ends (snow melts), and global weather and climate trends (e.g. El Niño) and how they affect our area. For the summer season, the following has been identified as most helpful: temperatures, rain amounts, sunshine, humidity, and how the changes in weather or climate affect nature and different phenomena. Should the evaluation of other major European ski centres also go forward, the same type of weather and climate information will also be required to assess the competitive position of Northern Finland relative to these other major ski centres.

Challenges and Opportunities for Climate ServicesIn the Blue Action proposal, defining end user information requirements in general is described as an iterative information exchange between Blue Action scientists and stakeholders (although in this case study there are no stakeholders) that would clarify the needs of the end user, Ruka, and the exact scope of the data to be provided by the case study. While the intent of putting together an End User Needs Report documenting Rukakeskus’ wish list is that it is supposed to provide the foundation for the improved weather and climate information that may be derived

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from Blue Action, what has proven very difficult is to obtain the initial hindcasts and ground truth data needed for the case study. Only very recently has the data been obtained but the hindcast data is on a global scale so much of it needs to be stripped away before it can become useful. Hence, the team is just beginning to understand what type of data is available let alone what type of modifications can take place. As a result, this End User Needs Report is more of a guess as to whether or not Ruka can ultimately get its ‘needs’ met. One of the biggest challenges in figuring out Ruka’s needs is for those of us who do not deal with the raw climate data, to better understand what type of data is available, let alone how we might be able to affect the future models. And, since Ruka’s current decision-making has not been based on any structured business model, the company is not sure the ‘improved’ weather and climate data will be useful. It is important to note that end user needs and data needs are not necessarily equivalent, since data typically needs to be translated (aka a climate service) into useful information and/or decision support products for end users to utilize. Understanding how to tailor these climate services to the winter tourism sector is certainly just as important as the provision of new data.

Main results achieved

As noted earlier in this report, the intent of the End User Needs Report (Deliverable 5.1) is to produce the initial draft of Ruka’s own decision-making process and stated information needs. To that end, Ruka’s success derives from its own employees’ historical knowledge and experiences about local weather patterns. Both short-term (daily/monthly/yearly) operational decisions, such as when to make and store snow, and longer-term (5 to 10 years timeframe) strategic decisions, such as investing in new infrastructure, have been based on personal experience. As the Arctic is warming at twice the rate of the rest of the world, larger changes in the climate are inevitable. Hence, Ruka sees the need for more forward thinking and to obtain the most accurate weather and climate data as early as possible to help them redefine their competitive advantage and ensure their longevity as one of Lapland’s largest ski resorts.

The key results from this deliverable are the identification of Ruka’s ‘wish list’ of future data. As noted above, this includes more localized data such as a ‘micro-forecast’ focusing on the ski resort and immediate area, as well as more accurate forecast data such as the predictability of snow-making conditions. In the short term, the most helpful data would focus on being able to pinpoint more precisely the likely opening of the season, when to produce artificial snow and when/how to store it. Over the long-term, data that helps companies plan major investments to adapt to the changing climate such as infrastructure, expansions, etc. would be most useful.

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The particular focus for the end user is the timing and quality of snow conditions in the start of the winter season as well as during the high season (mid-February until end of March / mid-April). While both short- and long-term forecasts are interesting, Ruka is especially interested in long-term results. They have also noted that even if precise data is preferable, patterns and estimates can also be helpful.

In terms of seasonal data, for the winter season, more precise information on the following is desirable: temperatures, wind, cloudiness, snow fall amounts, changes in the length of the winter season, estimates of when winter starts (“permanent” snow falls) and ends (snow melts), and global weather and climate trends (e.g. El Niño) and how they affect our area. For the summer season, the following has been identified as most helpful: temperatures, rain amounts, sunshine, humidity, and how the changes in weather or climate affect nature and different phenomena. Should the evaluation of other major European ski centres also go forward, the same type of weather and climate information will also be required to assess the competitive position of Northern Finland relative to these other major ski centres.

Progress beyond the state of the artThis deliverable is just the first step in designing a climate service tailored to Rukakeskus that will improve their decision-making, make them more competitive, and ultimately ensure the continued health of their business. Although D5.1 is not intended to advance the state of the art as this is typically understood, it has clearly laid out the operational nature of a ski resort and some of the challenges and opportunities that are present given the type of weather and climate data that is now and can hypothetically be supplied in the future. Once the short-term and mid-term weather and climate models are improved as stated in the other Work Packages, this case study will be able to use that data to not only produce a tailored climate service for Rukakeskus, but to also allow Ruka to assess how beneficial – or not – that information actually is for them hence providing information that is currently not available, and in the process, advancing the state of the art.

ImpactHow has this work contributed to the expected impacts of Blue-Action?

Deliverable 5.1 contributes to Blue Action’s expected impacts in a myriad of ways. First, one of the main impacts Blue Action is supposed to have is to help Arctic businesses by providing better weather and climate data. By having an actual business entity at the center of the case study, both the impact on operations as well as revenue can be tested and hopefully enhanced.

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In addition, the improved ability to both detect and predict seasonal climate variations that might result in potentially hazardous events serve to enhance the tourism industry in Northern Finland, their coping capability and resilience.

This case study also contributes to the expected impact that Blue Action will improve the capacity to respond to the effects of climatic change on the environment and human activities in the Arctic, both in the short and longer term. The outcomes of the case study it is believed will enhance the response capacity of the winter tourism industry in northern Finland and beyond, but also with further dissemination and collaboration as envisioned in WP8, it is hoped the rest of the ski industry in the circumpolar north will also have the opportunity to adopt adaptive measures that will enable their resilience to increase. In addition to improving the adaptive capacity of companies, Blue Action will also improve stakeholders’ capacity to adapt to climate change.

Finally, this deliverable is the first step in helping to better service the winter tourism industry. The modellers, translators (UoL) and end users (Ruka) will jointly work to test the value of improved climate services for the tourism sector by relying on improved forecasting capacity for implementing joint-measures and improving service to customers.

Impact on the business sectorThis case study is focused specifically on an Arctic business in the winter tourism sector, so by definition, the outcomes from this case study are intended to benefit the private sector. In general, with improved forecasting ability, it is hoped the winter tourism industry not just in Northern Finland but around the Arctic as a whole, will be able simultaneously to make better business decisions, improve their revenue, enhance the safety of employees and users of tourism facilities, and increase their ability to adapt to an increasingly unpredictable climate.

This deliverable itself will also have positive benefits for the business sector because it lays out the current state of knowledge about how one of the larger ski resorts in Finnish Lapland operates its facilities, what Ruka bases its decisions on, and the type of data they think would be beneficial for their operations in the future.

The last benefit that derives both from this deliverable and the case study is the recognition that a wider stakeholder network would contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of end user needs and that additional input into the process of developing this particular climate service would also benefit from many perspectives and experiences. Hence, convening a Business Stakeholder Panel would benefit not only the project, but the business community as well.

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Lessons learned and Links built Lessons learned from the work to date ranges from the factual i.e. the specific data needs

that Ruka has identified and better understanding how they currently make their operational and investment decisions, to the more subjective, i.e. the communication within the Blue Action team between those with more technical expertise and the end users. Learning how to communicate among people with widely differing skill sets is an ongoing process within Blue Action, but more importantly, it reflects the communication disparities that preclude the use of technical data by the layperson, or for that matter, the preparation of truly useful climate services.

Through this case study and deliverable, links with the climate modellers involved in WP1, as well as with the communication and dissemination team in WP8, have started to be built. To date, no links have been created with other projects such as APPLICATE, INTAROS, CRESCENDO, PRIMAVERA, CLIMATEUROPE, CERES and EU-Polar Net.

Contribution to the top level objectives of Blue-ActionDeliverable 5.1, the End User Needs Report, contributes to several of the top level objectives of Blue Action.

Objective 7 Fostering the capacity of key stakeholders to adapt and respond to climate change and boosting their economic growth The first step toward achieving Objective 7 is identifying what exactly the needs of an end user are, which is what Deliverable 5.1 has set out to accomplish. As no testing of the hindcast and ground truth data has been done yet, it is not possible to refine Ruka’s initial wish list. However, as the project proceeds, the refinement of end user needs will continue on an ongoing basis.Objective 8 Transferring knowledge to a wide range of interested key stakeholders The knowledge of Ruka’s future data needs will be of most interest to similar winter tourism industries, i.e. ski resorts. However, as the project proceeds and climate services are developed, those outcomes will likely be of more interest to a wider range of stakeholders.

References (Bibliography)1. Jarkko Saarinen and Kaarina Tervo. Perceptions and Adaptation Strategies of the Tourism

Industry to Climate Change: The Case of Finnish Nature-based Entrepreneurs. Int. J. Innovation and Sustainable Development, Vol. 1 No. 3, 2006.

2. Eva Kajan and Jarkko Saarinen. Tourism, climate change and adaptation: a review. Current Issues in Tourism, 2013.

3. Marttila V., Granholm H., Laanikari J., Yrjölä T., Aalto A., Heikinheimo P., Honkatukia, J., et al. Finland’s national strategy for adaptation to climate change. Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, Publication 1a/2005.

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4. Climate Change and Tourism: Responding to Global Challenges. © 2008 World Tourism Organization and United Nations Environment Programme.

5. S. Mikkonen, M. Laine, H.J. Mäkelä, H. Gregow, H. Tuomenvirta, M. Lahtinen, A. Laaksonen. Trends in the average temperature in Finland, 1847-2013. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, August 2015, Volume 29, Issue 6, pp 1521-1529.

6. http://yle.fi/uutiset/study_finlands_average_temperature_rising_faster_than_average/ 7704310

7. http://www.thebarentsobserver.com/ecology/2015/11/world-cup-levi-cancelled 8. Lapin Ilmastostrategia 2030. Lapin Liitto, Julkaisu 27/2011. ISBN 978-951-9244-59-4 (in

Finnish).9. End Users of Urban Meterological Information and Their Needs (Urban Meteorology:

Forecasting, Monitoring and Meeting Users’ Needs) National Academy of Sciences 2012)

Dissemination and exploitation of Blue-Action results Peer reviewed articlesNot applicable for this deliverable

Uptake by the targeted audiences As indicated in the Description of the Action, the audience for this deliverable is:

X This reports is confidential, only for members of the consortium, including the Commission services (CO)

This is how we are going to ensure the uptake of the deliverables by the targeted audiences:This report will be made available on: The intranet https://code.mpimet.mpg.de/projects/bg10 And announced in the newsletter of the project A summary will be made available in Zenodo Parts of this report will be used in Twitter and on the website for getting a media coverage

on the work done so far and planned in this case study.

Intellectual property rights resulting from this deliverableNot applicable for this deliverable.

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http://www.thebarentsobserver.com/ecology/2015/11/world-cup-levi-cancelled

http://yle.fi/uutiset/study_finlands_average_temperature_rising_faster_than_average/7704310

http://yle.fi/uutiset/study_finlands_average_temperature_rising_faster_than_average/7704310

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Summary for publication - code.mpimet.mpg.de€¦ · Web viewEnd Users Needs Report: Weather and climate data for Northern Finnish winter ... more than any other ski resort in the