Subtitle text can go here Economic Minute November 13, 2014 [email protected] Director Seidman Research Institute

Subtitle text can go here

Economic MinuteNovember 13, 2014

[email protected] Seidman Research Institute

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“No. 11 Sun Devils beat No. 8 Irish 55-31”

Subhead text goes here

ASU and Notre Dame

Coach Kelly calls it the “Debacle in the Desert”

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Reflections on 1966 from one observer… “In 1966, Notre Dame head coach Ara Parseghian made a decision that would rattle the constituency of the sport”

He instructed his players to run out the clock and play for the tie rather than try to win

The next week the Irish thrashed USC whileMichigan State’s season was over thanksTo the Big Ten’s “no repeat” rule for the Rose Bowl

Notre Dame was awarded the “national championship” So in 1966, Playing it safe, or complacency paid off

The strategy was dubbed“playing it Parseghian” and “playing it Parseghian” paid offIn 1966 for the Irish

DecadeRank

PopulationGrowth (%)

EmploymentGrowth (%)

IncomeGrowth (%)

1960 - 1970 3rd 3rd 4th

1970 - 1980 2nd 3rd 3rd

1980 - 1990 3rd 3rd 5th

1990 - 2000 2nd 2nd 3rd

2000 - 2007 2nd 3rd 4th

2008 - 2010 14th 49th 44th

2013 8th 10th 18th

Arizona: A Leading Growth State

Annual Growth Rates from U.S. Bureau of Census; U.S. BLS; U. S. BEA

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State Rank by YTDPercent Change – Sept.

10

72

49

6

3

45

9

14

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Top 10 Growth States

U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

123

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Arizona Job Growth 14th YTD 2014(AZ Jobs Up by 1.9% - 25 yr. Average is 3.9%)

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6

2011

2012

2013

2014

Timeline detail content




Year to date Nonfarm Job Growth by State(thous of jobs)

Subhead text goes hereState rank % growth number jobs

North Dakota 1 4.55 20.04 460.48

Nevada 2 3.58 41.78 1,209.36

Texas 3 3.26 362.61 11,494.28

Utah 4 3.1 39.77 1,321.19

Florida 5 2.94 221.61 7,753.76

Oregon 6 2.82 46.94 1,710.03

Colorado 7 2.75 65.21 2,434.14

Delaware 8 2.51 10.68 435.58

California 9 2.24 337.43 15,400.56

Washington 10 2.19 65.24 3,040.57

Arizona 14 1.94 48.61 2,548.14Eighth in the West

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2011

2012

2013

2014





Year to date Goods Prod. Job Growth by State(thous of jobs)

Subhead text goes hereState rank%

growth number jobsNorth Dakota 1 9.97 8.4 92.66Florida 2 6.71 46.32 736.64Nevada 3 6.33 7.1 119.35Utah 4 5.17 10.56 214.95Colorado 5 4.79 13.85 303.21Alaska 6 4.26 2.18 53.24Minnesota 7 3.91 16.26 431.88Delaware 8 3.52 1.57 46.31Texas 9 3.43 60.83 1834.37Indiana 10 3.25 20.19 642.05

Arizona 47 -0.68 -1.99 289.91

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2011

2012

2013

2014





Year to date Construction Job Growth by State(thous of jobs)

Subhead text goes hereState rank%

growth number jobsNevada 1 10.98 6.13 62Florida 2 10.85 39.19 400.46Utah 3 8.74 6.36 79.07Minnesota 4 8.04 7.94 106.72North Dakota 5 8.04 2.59 34.8Colorado 6 5.83 7.29 132.3Kansas 7 5.75 3.22 59.26California 8 5.7 35.94 666.26Oregon 9 5.54 4.03 76.88Connecticut 10 5.35 2.83 55.81

Arizona 39 -1.03 -1.27 121.13

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2011

2012

2013

2014





Year to date NonFarm Job Growth by Metro (thous of jobs)

Subhead text goes hereMetro rank % growth number jobs

Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL 1 3.66 38.68 1096.31

Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX 2 3.47 96.41 2870.99

Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 3 3.42 105.02 3177.57

Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL 4 3.02 70.42 2403.24

Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA 5 2.87 29.51 1059.51

Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 6 2.78 33.83 1250.57

Denver-Aurora-Broomfield, CO 7 2.77 35.68 1322.79

San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA 8 2.61 54.52 2145.98

Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 9 2.59 46.04 1822.99

San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA 10 2.4 31.31 1337.71

Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ 12 2.24 40.22 1838.729th in the West

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2011

2012

2013

2014





Year to date Goods Prod. Job Growth by Metro (thous of jobs)

Subhead text goes hereMetro rank % growth number jobs



San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA 3 4.76 7.4 162.76



Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH 6 3.86 6.08 163.52


Denver-Aurora-Broomfield, CO 8 3.62 5.17 148.04

Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 9 3.55 4.12 120.13

Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA 10 3.5 8.43 249.09

Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ 27 -0.74 -1.59 212.16

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2011

2012

2013

2014





Year to date Construction Job Growth by Metro (thous of jobs)

Subhead text goes hereSan Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA 1 9.62 5.8 66.11


Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA 3 8.45 16.18 207.57



Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA 6 6.28 5.68 96.12



Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 9 4.4 3.01 71.4

Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 10 3.08 1.72 57.57

Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 11 3.05 2.7 91.13

Pittsburgh, PA 12 1.87 0.99 53.76

Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL-IN-WI 13 1.6 2.37 149.87

Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ 14 -1.18 -1.09 91.53

Top Ten Metro Destinations: 20131. Houston

(55,620)6. San Antonio

(22,392)

2. Dallas (32,641) 7. Charlotte (21,382)

3. Phoenix (32,014) 8. Nashville (17,975)

4. Denver (26,536) 9. Seattle (17,926)

5. Austin (25,908 10. Orlando (17,316)

Phoenix 3rd Among MetroNet Migration Destinations

(But Phoenix Gained 96,000 in 2006)

U. S. Census Bureau

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So Where do we go from here??

• Simply Wait it out• “Play it Parseghian”, AZ always comes back

• Market the State• So what are the key assets?

• Cut more Taxes• Which ones?• How do we pay the bills?

• Economic Development Strategy• Workforce and Skills• Affordable land and labor• Most infrastructure in place

• Can we afford to be complacent this time? • Will “playing it Parseghian” work in 2014?

Documents

Subtitle text can go here Economic Minute November 13, 2014 [email protected] Director Seidman Research Institute