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STUDY ON THE POTENTIAL
FOR HIGH-EFFICIENCY COGENERATION
IN PORTUGAL
(Final report)
20 December 2016
CHP2016 (Final Report)
Rapporteur: ISR–UC | INESC
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Index
1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 1
2 Overview of the energy consumption in Portugal .................................................................. 4
3 Description of the methodology adopted .............................................................................. 7
3.1 References for the calculation of the potential for thermal substitution ........................ 15
3.2 Limitations of the profiling resulting from the data available ......................................... 16
4 Agriculture and fisheries sector ........................................................................................... 18
4.1 Energy profile in the agriculture and fisheries sector ..................................................... 18
4.2 Description of the demand for heating and cooling ....................................................... 20
5 Industrial sector ................................................................................................................. 24
5.1 Energy profile in the industrial sector ........................................................................... 24
5.2 Description of the demand for heating and cooling ....................................................... 29
6 Services sector .................................................................................................................... 33
6.1 Energy profile in the services sector .............................................................................. 34
6.2 Description of the demand for heating and cooling ....................................................... 38
7 Residential sector ............................................................................................................... 43
7.1 Description of the demand for heating and cooling ....................................................... 43
8 Mapping of demand, including existing and projected infrastructures ................................. 51
8.1 Maps of existing infrastructures ................................................................................... 52
8.1.1 Map of active thermal power plants in Portugal ........................................................... 52
8.1.2 Map of active cogeneration producers in Portugal ....................................................... 52
8.1.3 Map of projected cogeneration plants .......................................................................... 53
8.2 Map of the agriculture and fisheries sector ................................................................... 53
8.3 Map of the industrial sector ......................................................................................... 55
8.4 Map of the services sector ............................................................................................ 57
8.5 Map of the residential Sector ....................................................................................... 58
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9 Identification of the high-efficiency cogeneration and of the potential created since the
previous study 69
9.1 Evolution of the number of cogeneration plants during the 2008-2014 Period ............... 69
9.2 Evolution of the electric capacity of the cogeneration plants during the 2008-2014 Period 73
9.3 District heating and cooling, and trigeneration .............................................................. 76
9.4 Identification of the technical potential of high-efficiency cogeneration in Portugal ....... 77
9.4.1 Definitions and assumptions – potential for cogeneration and for the consumption of thermal energy 77
9.4.2 Distribution of the consumption of thermal energy in the reference year by activity
sector 80
9.5 Technical potential of cogeneration and its evolution in 2014-2015 ............................... 82
9.6 Economic potential of high-efficiency cogeneration ...................................................... 87
9.6.1 Scenarios for evolution .................................................................................................. 87
9.6.2 Cost-benefit analysis ...................................................................................................... 93
9.7 Strategies, policies and measures for the realisation of the potential identified ............. 99
9.7.1 Cogeneration public support measures - definition of priority interest and sectors
.......................................................................................................................................99
9.7.2 Incentive system for existing cogeneration and possible improvements ................... 100
10 Conclusions and recommendations ................................................................................... 103
11 References ....................................................................................................................... 106
ANNEXES ................................................................................................................................. 107
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List of Figures
Figure 1.1 – Cogeneration installed capacity in the European Union (Source: Eurostat) ....................... 2
Figure 1.2 - Production of electricity in cogeneration v. ratio of electricity produced in cogeneration in
the European Union in 2014 (Source: Eurostat) ...................................................................................... 3
Figure 1.3 – Mix of fuels used in cogeneration in the European Union in 2014 (Source: COGEN)
.................................................................................................................................................................3
Figure 2.1 – Evolution of the consumption of primary energy in ktoe (Source: DGEG) .......................... 4
Figure 2.2 – Evolution of the consumption of final energy in ktoe (Source: DGEG) ............................... 5
Figure 2.3 – Evolution of the consumption of final energy by activity sector in ktoe (Source: DGEG) ... 6
Figure 3.1 - Summary sheet of the information contained in the database created within the scope of
this report ................................................................................................................................................ 9
Figure 3.2 – Desktop layout of the QGIS software ................................................................................ 12
Figure 4.1 - Breakdown of the final energy in the agriculture and fisheries sector (Source: DGEG) .... 19
Figure 4.2 - Energy consumption by district in Continental Portugal, the Azores and Madeira in the
agriculture and fisheries Sector [Source: DGEG 2014] .......................................................................... 20
Figure 4.3 - Heat/cooling needs by district in the agriculture and fisheries sector [GWh] ................... 21
Figure 5.1 - Breakdown of final energy in the industrial sector [Source: DGEG] .................................. 26
Figure 5.2 - Evolution of the industry sub-sectors during the 2008-2014 period [Source: DGEG] ....... 28
Figure 5.3 - Energy consumption by district in Continental Portugal, the Azores and Madeira in the
industrial sector [Source: DGEG 2014] .................................................................................................. 29
Figure 5.4 - Heat/cooling needs by district in the industrial sector [GWh] ........................................... 31
Figure 6.1 – Breakdown of final energy in the services sector (Source: DGEG) .................................... 35
Figure 6.2 - Evolution of consumption in the services sub-sectors during the period 2008-2014 [Source: DGEG] .37
Figure 6.3 – Energy consumption by district in Continental Portugal, the Azores and Madeira in the
services sector [Source: DGEG 2014] ..................................................................................................... 39
Figure 6.4 - Heat/cooling needs by district in the services sector [GWh] ............................................. 40
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Figure 7.1 – Consumption of energy by dwelling broken down by final use in 2012 (Lapillonne, Bruno,
Karine Pollier 2015)................................................................................................................................ 43
Figure 7.2 – Consumption for heating by m2 (Lapillonne, Bruno, Karine Pollier 2015) ......................... 43
Figure 7.3 – Number of classic and dwelling buildings (INE 2015) ........................................................ 44
Figure 7.4 – Distribution of residential consumption by source in 2014 – figures in ktoe. Data: (DGEG
2014)45 Figure 7.5 – Average number of degrees day for the 1980-2004 period in the E-27 countries
(Bertoldi et al. 2012) 46 Figure 7.6 – Zoning for the purposes of thermal surrounding requirements
(Aguiar 2013) ......................................................................................................................................... 47
Figure 7.7 – Urban fabric areas. Data: DGT ........................................................................................... 48
Figure 7.8 – Number of dwellings with heating system per NUTS II region. Data: (INE 2011).............. 48
Figure 7.9 – Number of dwellings with heating system per NUTS II region – distribution per energy
source. (Source: INE 2011) ..................................................................................................................... 49
Figure 7.10 – Evolution of consumption in the residential sector (Source: DGEG) ............................... 49
Figure 7.11 – Determination of the tendency associated with the residential consumption data ....... 50
Figure 8.1 - Location of heat and power stations with a consumption of more than 20 GWh and of
incineration plants (Source: DGEG 2014) .............................................................................................. 52
Figure 8.2 - Municipalities with active cogeneration producers (Source: DGEG 2014) ........................ 53
Figure 8.3 - Consumption by municipality in the agriculture and fisheries sector (Source: DGEG 2014). ............................................................................................................................................................... 54
Figure 8.4 - Consumption by municipality in the agriculture and fisheries sector: heat and cooling (Source: DGEG 2014)
...............................................................................................................................................................55
Figure 8.5 - Consumption by municipality in the industrial sector (Source: DGEG 2014). .................... 56
Figure 8.6 - Consumption by municipality in the industrial sector: heat and cooling (Source: DGEG2014)............................................................................................................................................. 56
Figure 8.7 - Consumption by municipality in the services sector (Source: DGEG 2014). ...................... 57
Figure 8.8 - Definition of conurbations in COS2007 (Source: COS 2007). ............................................. 59
Figure 8.9 - Distribution of dwellings by civil parish. ............................................................................. 61
Figure 8.10 - Distribution of total annual consumption in the residential sector by civil parish using
real consumption statistics, with an estimated distribution of the consumption of biomass according
to hypothesis (ii) .................................................................................................................................... 62
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Figure 8.11 - Distribution of the annual heating consumption according to hypothesis (iii) ................ 63
Figure 8.12 - Estimate of the density of the annual consumption by civil parish in toe/km2, based on
approach (ii). .......................................................................................................................................... 64
Figure 8.13 - Estimate of the density of the annual consumption by civil parish in toe/km2, based on
approach (iii) .......................................................................................................................................... 65
Figure 8.14 - Distribution of consumption for cooling according to dwellings with air-conditioning ... 66
Figure 8.15 - Annual energy consumption in the residential sector in Madeira (Source: DGEG) ......... 67
Figure 8.16 - Density of consumption in the Azores (Source: DGEG) .................................................... 68
Figure 9.1 – Number of cogeneration plants according to the NUT I division (Source: DGEG) ............ 70
Figure 9.2 – Location of cogeneration plants in 2014, according to the NUT I division (Source: DGEG
2014) ...................................................................................................................................................... 70
Figure 9.3 – Geographic distribution of active cogeneration producers (Source: DGEG 2014) ............ 71
Figure 9.4 - Breakdown (percentage of the number of facilities) of the new cogeneration plants by
sector of activity for the 2008-2014 period (Source: DGEG) ................................................................. 71
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List of Tables
Table 1 - Proportion of the consumption of heat that can be supplied through a source of residual
heat (Klotz et al 2014) ............................................................................................................................ 16
Table 2 – Thermal needs in the agriculture and fisheries sector .......................................................... 21
Table 3 - Thermal needs in the industrial sector ................................................................................... 30
Table 4 – Thermal needs in the services sector ..................................................................................... 40
Table 5 - Electrical and thermal capacities of the cogeneration plants analysed for the period 2008-2014
...............................................................................................................................................................75
Table 6 - Economic potential of high-efficiency cogeneration in 2010, 2015 and 2020, according to
the DGEG (2010) .................................................................................................................................... 76
Table 7 - Energy consumption by sector in toe - 2014 (Source: DGEG) ................................................ 81
Table 8 - Energy consumption in the services sector - 2014 (Source: DGEG) ....................................... 82
Table 9 - Weight of cogeneration in 2014 by sector of activity (Source: DGEG) ................................... 83
Table 10 - Weight of cogeneration in the services sector in 2014 (Source: DGEG) .............................. 84
Table 11 - Calculation of the potential heating and cooling to be delivered by cogeneration units (Source: DGEG) ...................................................................................................................................... 86
Table 12 – Scenarios for evolution in MWe (Source: EEP, INESCC, ISR, Protermia. 2008 ..................... 88
Table 13 - Projected evolution of consumption of energy in Portugal between 2015 and 2035 (Source:
EU Reference Scenario 2016) ................................................................................................................ 90
Table 14 - Projected evolution of the production of electricity and of the proportion generated in
cogeneration units in Portugal (Source: EU Reference Scenario 2016) ................................................ 90
Table 15 – Projected evolution of consumption by industrial sub-sector in Portugal (Source: EU
Reference Scenario2016) ....................................................................................................................... 91
Table 16 – Projected evolution of residential consumption in Portugal (Source: EU Reference
Scenario2016) ........................................................................................................................................ 92
Table 17 - Projected evolution of consumption in the services and agriculture sectors in Portugal
between (Source: EU Reference Scenario 2016) ................................................................................... 92
Table A2.18 - Case 1 - 5 kW engine (values per kW) ........................................................................... 110
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Table A2.19 - Case 2 - 50 kW engine (values per kW) ......................................................................... 110
Table A2.20 - Case 3 - 500 kW engine (values per kW) ....................................................................... 111
Table A2.21 - Case 4 - 2 MW engine (values per kW) .......................................................................... 111
Table A2.22 - Case 5 - 10 MW gas turbine (values per kW) ................................................................ 112
Table A2.23 - Case 6 - 20 MW gas turbine (values per kW) ................................................................ 112
Table A2.24 - Case 7 - 20 MW gas turbine (values per kW) ................................................................ 113
Table A2.25 - Case 8 - 100 MW CCGT (values per kW) ........................................................................ 113
Table A2.26 - Case 9 - 200 MW CCGT (values per kW) ........................................................................ 114
Table A2.27 - Case 10 - 450 MW CCGT (values per kW) ...................................................................... 114
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Index of acronyms
HWSP Hot water for sanitary purposes
CAE Economic activity code
COGEN PT Portuguese Association for Energy Efficiency and Promotion of Cogeneration
COGEN EU The European Association for the Promotion of Cogeneration
COS2007 Land use and land cover map for Continental Portugal for 2007
DGEG Directorate-General for Energy and Geology
DGT Directorate-General for the Territory
EDP Energias de Portugal
MS Member State
NG Natural gas
LPG Liquified petroleum gas
INE National Statistical Institute
REN Redes Energéticas Nacionais
GIS Geographical information system
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1 Introduction
In accordance with Article 14 of Directive 2012/27/EU on Energy Efficiency, the European
Commission required Member States to carry out a study on the identification of the high-efficiency
cogeneration potential and of energy efficient heating and cooling systems (taking into consideration
the principles contained in Annex VIII) for a period of ten years following the reference year used (in
the case of Portugal, 2014).
For that purpose, we used data provided by the Energy Planning and Statistics Services Directorate of
the Directorate-General for Energy and Geology (DGEG) relating to the 2008-2015 period, with the
consumption of each source of energy being allocated by economic activity code (CAE). Other
sources were also used as needed according to the data.
This report is divided into 11 chapters. This chapter is an introduction, whilst the second chapter
provides an overview of the energy consumption in Portugal. Chapter 3 describes the methodology
used in the calculations and in the production of this report, as well as the limitations found during
the study. In chapters 4 to 7 there is an energy profiling of each of the activity sectors, as well as a
description of the demand for heating and cooling in those sectors. Chapter 8 contains the mapping
required by Annex VIII of the directive. Chapter 9 details the high-efficiency cogeneration and the
technical and economic potential created since the last study. Chapter 10 contains the main
conclusions and recommendations of this study.
In the first part of the study, there is a description of the methodology used to process the data
acquired for the energy profiling of all the municipalities in Portugal from the available data and
existing limitations. For that purpose, an Excel database was created, which was fundamental for
undertaking this study.
The main energy sources of each sector were analysed with the aim of adequately profiling energy
needs, namely the demand for heating and cooling, and therefore providing a detailed evaluation of
each sector. The maps requested by Annex VIII of the directive and a critical analysis of those maps
were created based on the evaluations made.
After a short description of the current cogeneration situation in Portugal, we made an analysis of
the technical potential for cogeneration and efficient heating and cooling networks, as we well as an
analysis of the economic potential and an estimate of its evolution.
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Figures 1.1 to 1.3 show the cogeneration installed capacities and the combustible fuels used in the
various countries of the European Union. Electricity production values are also shown, both in
absolute and relative terms. The rate of penetration of cogeneration in Portugal is similar to the
European average, and higher than the southern EU countries (Spain, France, Greece and Italy).
Portugal displays a positive characteristic in the high percentage of renewable energies in
cogeneration, surpassed only by Finland, Sweden and Austria.
Figure 1.1 – Cogeneration installed capacity in the European Union (Source: Eurostat)
Figure 1.1 Legend:
Portuguese: English: Capacidade de Cogeração Instalada na União Europeia em 2014
Cogeneration installed capacity in the European Union in 2014
Capacidade Instalada para Cogeração [GW] Cogeneration installed capacity [GW] Capacidade de Calor Thermal capacity Capacidade Elétrica Electrical capacity Países Countries Alemanha Germany Itália Italy Holanda Holland Polónia Poland Espanha Spain Finlândia Finland Reino Unido United Kingdom Dinamarca Denmark Bélgica Belgium Suécia Sweden República Checa Czech Republic França France Áustria Austria
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Portugal Portugal Roménia Romania Hungria Hungary Bulgária Bulgaria Letónia Latvia Irlanda Ireland Grécia Greece Lituânia Lithuania Estónia Estonia Eslovénia Slovenia Croácia Croatia Noruega Norway Luxemburgo Luxembourg Chipre Cyprus Malta Malta Eslováquia Slovakia
Figure 1.2 - Production of electricity in cogeneration v. ratio of electricity produced in cogeneration in the European Union in 2014 (Source: Eurostat)
Figure 1.2 Legend:
Portuguese: English: Produção de Eletricidade em Cogeração Vs. Rácio de Eletricidade Produzida em Cogeração na União Europeia em 2014
Production of electricity in cogeneration v. Ratio of electricity produced in cogeneration in the European Union in 2014
Produção de Eletricidade em Cogeração Generation of electricity in cogeneration Rácio de Eletricidade produzida Ratio of electricity generated Países Countries Alemanha Germany Itália Italy Holanda Holland Polónia Poland
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Espanha Spain Finlândia Finland Reino Unido United Kingdom Dinamarca Denmark Bélgica Belgium Suécia Sweden República Checa Czech Republic França France Áustria Austria Portugal Portugal Roménia Romania Hungria Hungary Bulgária Bulgaria Letónia Latvia Irlanda Ireland Grécia Greece Lituânia Lithuania Estónia Estonia Eslovénia Slovenia Croácia Croatia Noruega Norway Luxemburgo Luxembourg Chipre Cyprus Malta Malta Eslováquia Slovakia
Figure 1.3 - Mix of fuels used in the cogeneration in the European Union in 2014 (Source: COGEN)
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Figure 1.3 Legend:
Portuguese: English: Mix de Combustíveis Utilizados na Cogeração na União Europeia em 2014
Mix of fuels used in the cogeneration in the European Union in 2014
Combustíveis Sólidos Solid fuels Petróleo e derivados Derivatives of petroleum Gás Natural Natural gas Renováveis Renewables Outros Combustíveis Other combustible fuels Alemanha Germany Itália Italy Holanda Holland Polónia Poland Espanha Spain Finlândia Finland Reino Unido United Kingdom Dinamarca Denmark Bélgica Belgium Suécia Sweden República Checa Czech Republic França France Áustria Austria Portugal Portugal Roménia Romania Hungria Hungary Bulgária Bulgaria Letónia Latvia Irlanda Ireland Grécia Greece Lituânia Lithuania Estónia Estonia Eslovénia Slovenia Croácia Croatia Noruega Norway Luxemburgo Luxembourg Chipre Cyprus Malta Malta Eslováquia Slovakia
2 Overview of the energy consumption in Portugal
Figure 2.1 shows the evolution of the consumption of primary energy in Portugal in ktoe. It can be
seen that in 2014 the consumption of oil represented around 44 %, natural gas 17 %, renewable
energies 26 % and coal 13 % of the total consumption.
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Figure 2.1 - Evolution of the consumption of primary energy in ktoe (Source: DGEG)
Figure 2.1 Legend:
Portuguese: English: Carvão Coal Petróleo Oil GN Natural gas Saldo Imp. En. Elétrica Balance of imported electricity Renováveis Renewables O – Outros resíduos não renováveis O – Other non-renewable residue
The evolution of the consumption of primary energy was influenced by various factors, namely the
following:
• Reduced economic growth, with a negative growth figure in some years as a result of the
2008 international crisis, which was aggravated by the need to ensure the sustainability of
the Portuguese external debt;
• Substantial reduction in the consumption of oil due as the result of an increase in prices,
reduction of the economic activity of companies and an increase in energy efficiency;
• Significant growth in the production of renewable energies, with a focus on the generation of wind energy.
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Figure 2.2 shows the evolution of the consumption of final energy in Portugal in ktoe. It can be seen that in 2014 the consumption of oil represented around 48 %, electricity 25 % and natural gas 10 %. The use of heat represented around 9 % and the consumption of biomass 7 %.
Figure 2.2 - Evolution of the consumption of final energy in ktoe (Source: DGEG)
Figure 2.2 Legend:
Portuguese: English: Petróleo Oil GN Natural gas Carvão Coal Biomassa Biomass E. Elétrica Electrical energy Calor Heat O – Outras formas de energia O – Other forms of energy
The evolution of the consumption of final energy was limited by factors similar to the primary energy,
and it should be emphasised that the consumption of electricity, natural gas and demand for heat
remained more or less constant.
Figure 2.3 shows the evolution of the consumption of final by activity sector in Portugal in ktoe. It can
be seen that in 2014, the consumption in the services sector represented around 12 %, the industrial
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sector around 30 %, the domestic sector around 18 % and the agriculture and fisheries sector 2 %.
The transport and construction and public works sectors amounted to the remaining 38 %.
In this figure, one can see in more detail the overall reduction in the consumptions of final energy by
activity sector, and it is worth highlighting the large reduction in the transport, construction and
public works, as well as in the industrial sectors.
Figure 2.3 - Evolution of the consumption of final energy by activity sector in ktoe (Source: DGEG)
Figure 2.3 Legend:
Portuguese: English: Transportes Transportation Indústria Industry Construção e Obras Públicas Construction and public works Serviços Services Doméstico Domestic Agricultura e Pescas Agriculture and fisheries
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3 Description of the methodology adopted
The carrying out of the work described in this report aimed at answering the specifications of Annex
VII of Directive 2012/27/EU using the available data. This chapter describes the methodologies for
each of the stages carried out.
The first stage was to analyse all the data available or supplied by the DGEG, namely:
• National energy balances;
• Consumption of electricity and of the main combustible fuels by council area;
• Survey on the consumption of energy in the domestic sector 2010;
• Statistics on construction and housing and censuses (National Statistical Institute).
However, this data did not include, for example, the breakdown by activity sector of the final use of
the energy so as to allow the profiling of the demand for heating and cooling. For that reason, it was
necessary to carry out some simplifications in order to estimate that consumption as accurately as
possible, namely:
• The data resulting from the survey on the consumption of energy in the domestic sector from 2010 served as reference for the breakdown of the domestic consumption by final use and by source, enabling the creation of a picture of consumption from the censuses data.
• The data on the sales of electricity and combustible fuels, together with the statistical data on heating systems, allowed us to obtain fairly accurate estimates for the consumption of energy for residential heating. Similarly, it was possible to obtain estimates on the distribution of consumption for cooling from the statistics of ownership of air conditioning.
• Consumption for the various activity sectors, industry, services and agriculture and fisheries was estimated from sales statistics by council area. However, in order to break down those consumptions by final use, it was necessary to use distribution estimates obtained from specialist literature.
The DGEG provided the data on the consumption of primary energy broken down by source of
energy, by municipality and by year, for the period 2008-2014. The DGEG also provided data on the
current situation of the existing cogeneration producers in Portugal and on their evolution during the
respective period, including their location, economic activity code, installed capacity and
serviceability. This information was complemented by data from other sources, such as: the supplier
of last resort EDP Universal, the cogeneration association (COGEN), the statistical portal Pordata and
the National Statistical Institute (INE).
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The data was compiled in a database, allowing the creation of a picture of the consumption and of
the needs of each activity sector in geographic terms, as well as the calculation and analyses needed
to undertake this study, in accordance with the specifications of the directive. Therefore, this
database acted as the input for the mapping software used and as the starting point for the
evaluation of the high-efficiency cogeneration potential.
The following Figure 3.1 summarises the location of the information contained in the database. The
year of 2014 was used as reference for the breakdown of consumption by energy source (as per the
request made by the DGEG).
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Figure 3.1 - Summary sheet of the information contained in the database created within the scope of this report
Figure 3.1 Legend:
Worksheets – Consolidated database Summary Instructions for the use of the consolidated database. Sources of energy v. CAE 2008-2014
Database with totals at national level where the various consumptions were inserted, broken down by CAE and by source of energy for 2008-2014.
Electricity Breakdown of the consumption of electricity by CAE, municipality and activity sector for 2014.
NG Breakdown of the consumption of NG by CAE, municipality and activity sector for 2014.
LPG Breakdown of the consumption of LPG (butane, propane and automotive LPG) by CAE, municipality and activity sector for 2014.
Fuel Breakdown of the consumption of Fuel by CAE, municipality and activity sector for 2014.
Diesels Breakdown of the consumption of diesel (automotive gas oil and dyed diesel) by CAE, municipality and activity sector for 2014.
Petrol Breakdown of the consumption of petrol by CAE, municipality and activity sector for 2014.
Biodiesel Breakdown of the consumption of biodiesel by CAE, municipality and activity sector for 2014.
Lubricants Breakdown of the consumption of lubricants by CAE, municipality and activity sector for 2014.
Asphalt Breakdown of the consumption of asphalt by CAE, municipality and activity sector for 2014.
Solvents Breakdown of the consumption of solvents by CAE, municipality and
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activity sector for 2014. Benzine Breakdown of the consumption of benzine by CAE, municipality and
activity sector for 2014. Paraffin Breakdown of the consumption of paraffin by CAE, municipality and
activity sector for 2014. Petroleum products for illumination and as propellant
Breakdown of the consumption of petroleum products for illumination and as propellant by CAE, municipality and activity sector for 2014.
Naphtha Breakdown of the consumption of chemical naphtha by CAE, municipality and activity sector for 2014.
Petroleum coke Breakdown of the consumption of petroleum coke by CAE, municipality and activity sector for 2014.
Aromatic raw materials
Breakdown of the consumption of aromatic raw materials by CAE, municipality and activity sector for 2014.
Evolution by sector Evolution of consumption by activity sector for the 2008-2014 period. Evolution of sub-sectors – Services
Evolution of consumption by sub-sector of activity (services) for the 2008-2014 period.
Evolution of sub-sectors – Industry
Evolution of consumption by sub-sector of activity (industry) for the 2008-2014 period.
Agriculture and fisheries sector analysis
Analysis of the total consumption in the agriculture and fisheries sector for 2014 by district. Graphical analysis of the total energy consumption and electricity consumption by district for 2014.
Industrial sector analysis
Analysis of the total consumption in the industrial sector for districts with more than 20 GWh of consumption. Graphical analysis of the total energy consumption and electricity consumption for districts with more than 20 GWh of consumption for 2014.
Services sector analysis
Analysis of the total consumption in the services sector for 2014 by district. Graphical analysis of the total energy consumption and electricity consumption by district for 2014.
Total Total consumption values by municipality and activity sector in GWh and TOE for 2014.
RE generation Only for consultation of the values supplied by the DGEG for the generation of renewable energies and installed capacity for the 1995-2014 period.
Consumption of coal 2014
Only for consultation of the values supplied by the DGEG for the coal energy balance for 2014.
Location of cogeneration producers 2014
Location and CAE of the cogeneration producers registered in Portugal in 2014. Evolution of the number of cogeneration producers in Portugal (2008-2014).
List of CAEs List of CAEs active in Portugal in 2014. Analysis of potential
Analysis of the CAEs with potential for cogeneration in the various activity sectors (agriculture and fisheries, industry and services) in municipalities with a total consumption of more than 20 GWh (total of electricity and heat/cooling) in Portugal for 2014.
Energy balance v. breakdown
Compares the data from the DGEG energy balance with the data of the breakdown of consumption by municipality/activity sector for 2014
The demand for heating and cooling was determined taking into consideration the average values for
the needs of each sector, therefore reaching the figure for the amount of heat replaceable by high-
efficiency cogeneration. In agriculture, the thermal needs in terms of cooling are much higher than
heating needs, as cooling is essentially used for the preservation of agricultural produce (cold stores).
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Cooling is basically generated from electricity, which means that cogeneration is not very relevant for
this activity sector. The fact that there are very few cogeneration producers registered with the CAE
of this sector serves as evidence to that effect. With regard to the industry and services, the situation
varies a lot. The industrial processes and services provided to very heterogeneous target audiences
have energy needs that vary considerably, justifying the use of cogeneration systems in some cases.
According to the Directive, it is necessary to identify the following without ignoring the protection of
commercially sensitive information:
i. heating and cooling demand points, including: ● municipalities and conurbations with a plot ratio of at least 0,31, and
● industrial zones with a total annual heating and cooling consumption of more than 20 GWh,
ii. existing and planned district heating and cooling infrastructures;
iii. potential heating and cooling supply points, including:
● electricity generation installations with a total annual electricity production of more than 20 GWh,
● waste incineration plants,
● existing and planned cogeneration installations using technologies referred to in Part II of Annex I, and district heating installations;
With regard to the mapping of residential consumption in municipalities and conurbations, that
information was collected from the official entities responsible for maintaining it, namely the
National Statistical Institute (INE) and the Directorate-General for the Territory (DGT).
It was only possible to obtain areas and number of dwellings from INE, and it was not possible to
calculate land occupation areas. The data from the 2011 censuses allowed the calculation of the
housing density (number of buildings or number of dwellings per km2), but without any information
on the area occupied by buildings.
The Land use and land cover map for Continental Portugal for 2007 (COS2007), which was produced
based on the visual interpretation of high resolution orthorectified aerial spatial images, was
obtained from the DGT. Through the COS2007 it is possible to identify areas marked as conurbations
and compare them with the Official administrative map of Portugal. However, the definition of
conurbation does not allow us to determine with precision the 'plot ratio' as defined in the directive,
which should correspond to the ratio of the building floor area to the land area in a given territory.
The areas identified as conurbations correspond to all the areas where the soil has been sealed,
including streets and also small gardens connected to dwelling houses. As such, there is no exact
correspondence to the 'building floor area' as defined in the directive. Even then, it appears to be the
closest definition, being the conurbations the conjunction of areas defined as continuous urban 1 The ratio between the building floor area to the land area in a given territory.
CHP2016 (Final Report)
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14
fabric and discontinuous urban fabric, defined as per Figure 8.8.
The total conurbations area is shown in Figure 7.7, where it is possible to see the relevance of the
metropolitan areas of Lisbon and Porto and the concentration in the coastal region between them.
However, just the representation of the conurbations does not allow the identification of the
potential for the application of micro-generation, or of the supply through district heating and
cooling networks, without understanding the levels of consumption of those areas, having as
reference the low levels of consumption of heating in Portugal and the short duration of the heating
season.
In order to understand the heating and cooling needs of each region, it would be necessary to obtain
statistics on consumption distributed geographically. However, there is no information containing the
sources of energy with a sufficiently detailed level of distribution, namely with respect to biomass
consumption, which has a weight of 30 % of the global consumption in the domestic sector and
which will have different levels of use, which is bound to be higher in rural places outside urban
areas.
The distribution of consumption by final use was estimated based on some known statistics of
average distribution, based on national consumption surveys (INE/DGEG 2011) or based on questions
included in the censuses.
In this manner, the following hypotheses were therefore formulated in order to estimate
consumption at the smallest possible administrative level (the civil parish), with the ultimate
objective of obtaining values for the consumption of space heating, water heating and cooling:
i. The simple application of the average consumption by dwelling to the distribution of dwellings of usual residence by civil parish, which were obtained from the censuses, based on the INE's estimates for 2014. This hypothesis only allows us to measure the distribution of dwellings in Portugal on a scale associated with the energy consumption, it does not take into account the differences in consumption associated with the climate of each region or other factors that affect consumption.
ii. Using the values for consumption or sales by council area for domestic use for all energy sources (with the exception of biomass) based on data supplied by the DGEG, distributing that consumption by the civil parishes in proportion to the number of occupied dwelling houses per civil parish, according to the statistic 'Family homes of usual residence (No.) per geographic location (as of the date of the 2011 censuses)' (INE). The biomass consumption was estimated by the distribution of the global biomass consumption for the sector indicated by the DGEG for 2014 by the different civil parishes, using the following statistic as reference for the distribution of the total consumption of that energy source: 'Whether there is a heating system and main source of energy used for heating - Ten-year period' (INE), namely dwellings that use biomass as the main heating system.
iii. Using the above statistics to estimate the consumption by civil parish of each heating energy source, distributing the estimate of the total consumption for space heating of each energy
CHP2016 (Final Report)
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15
source by the civil parishes in proportion to the number of dwellings with that main heating system in each civil parish.
iv. Using the statistic 'Family homes of usual residence (No.) per geographic location (as of the date of the 2011 censuses)' (INE) and 'Existence of air conditioning - ten-year period' (INE) to estimate the consumption by civil parish for cooling, distributing the total estimated consumption for space cooling by the civil parishes in proportion to the number of dwellings with air conditioning.
The previous four hypotheses include significant simplifications, but they allow a better assessment
of the existing variations in the consumption of energy in Portugal, to enable a better identification
of the potential for intervention. The limitations associated with the data available highlight the fact
that approximate values have to be calculated for unknown variables. The general principle adopted
was to use available data with the greatest possible spatial resolution.
The QGIS software was used for the creation of the geographic mapping. This open source
Geographic Information System (GIS) licensed under the GNU General Public License (GPL) is an
official project of the Open Source Geospatial Foundation (OSGeo). It is compatible with Linux, Unix,
Mac OSX, Windows and Android, presenting a wide range of functionality and supporting many
different formats of vectors, rasters, databases and geo-services. Figure 3.2 shows the desktop layout
of this software.
Figure 3.2 – Desktop layout of the QGIS software
CHP2016 (Final Report)
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Since the level of detail of the consumption data only goes as far as municipalities, it was not possible
to obtain a breakdown by specific areas, namely industrial areas, business parks, residential areas,
etc. In the cases of the sectors of agriculture and fisheries, industry and services, the mapping was
made based on the administrative and geographic boundaries of the Portuguese municipalities. For
the residential sector, it was possible to use the geographic boundaries of the civil parishes, since in
the residential sector there are no sub-sectors that make consumption heterogeneous, therefore
allowing a more rigorous analysis. In the remaining sectors, given their diversity and the geographic
spread of their constituting companies, we chose to break down the analysis by municipality
administrative boundaries.
Cogeneration power plants (both working and projected), incinerators and thermal power plants
with a production of more than 20 GWh in Continental Portugal, the Azores and Madeira were
mapped in accordance with the requirements of Annex VIII of the directive2. The directive also
requires the mapping of industrial zones with a total annual heating and cooling consumption of
more than 20 GWh. Since the data supplied only contained consumption by CAE at the municipality
level, it was not possible to carry out that analysis. In addition, the industry (especially older industry)
is located outside industrial areas, with many service companies installed in the latter. As such, it was
not possible to obtain the consumption of the industrial areas, especially those corresponding to the
industrial sector. Therefore, we decided to carry out an analysis based on the geographic boundaries
of each municipality, thus identifying the municipalities that have annual thermal needs of more than
20 GWh. In these maps we used a scale of colours according to the GWh consumption of each
municipality.
The identification of the high-efficiency cogeneration and of the potential created since the previous
cogeneration study was undertaken by comparing the report published in 2010 with the data
supplied by the DGEG relating to the cogeneration units in operation, including their location,
installed output, production of electricity and thermal energy and primary energy consumption.
In order to estimate the evolution of the demand for heating and cooling during the 10 years after
the reference year, the data of the PRIMES model (Capros et al, 2016), updated in 2016 and supplied
by the DGEG were used. This data allows us to estimate the evolution of the consumption of the
main industry sub-sectors, as well as the consumption of the residential and services sectors
between 2015 and 2025, although the last two in an aggregate manner.
The determination of the high-efficiency cogeneration technical potential was carried out based on
the energy balance for 2014 (DGEG), namely on the consumption values for thermal energy by
economic activity sector, and by correcting the figure corresponding to the consumption of thermal
energy, as opposed to consumption which is easily identifiable as ineligible for supply through
cogeneration, namely road fuel and oil products not for energy. The combustible fuels consumption
2 Directive 2012/27/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 25 October 2012 on energy efficiency.
CHP2016 (Final Report)
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statistics supplied by the DGEG also allowed some additional discrimination, which was particularly
useful for the services sector.
However, there are still consumption figures that are ineligible for supply through cogeneration, such
as consumption for cooking or, in the case of the industry, in high temperature processes that
require the direct burning of fuel, such as in ovens. Therefore, in order to carry out a precise
calculation of the cogeneration technical potential, it would be necessary to have detailed data on a
large number of different energy consumers, so as to be able to estimate in each case the share of
heating, cooling and electricity that could be produced through cogeneration. Considering that this
information is not readily available, it was therefore necessary to adopt a simplified approach to
estimate approximately the share of consumption of heating that can be replaced in each sector of
activity. For that reason, and since the level of consumption in the industrial sector is less dependent
on the specific characteristics of the country or territory, including the dependency on weather
events, the reference values documented in the bibliography were used to estimate the maximum
technical potential in the industry sub-sectors, based on the estimates of consumption of thermal
energy excluding road fuels. It should be noted that the real technical potential will have other
important restrictions, namely the limitations of the electricity network, which cannot be determined
in a macro approach.
However, the fulfilment of all this potential is not realistic, since it does not take into account the
pattern of functioning of the cogeneration units, the need for maintenance interruptions, or basic
aspects such as the minimum functioning capacity. As mentioned in other reports, the technical
potential is surely higher than the attainable potential, and the latter should be the one used as
reference in any political decision. However, the exact determination of this attainable potential is
particularly difficulty since there is no detailed data or basis for comparison, given the variety of
approaches and of the nature of the industry and other entities using the heat and cooling that is
generated.
Therefore, only the sub-sectors of the manufacturing industry with greater cogeneration potential
were considered, both because of the amount of heat consumed, and because of the amount of heat
that can be replaced, namely the following:
• Food, drinks and tobacco,
• Textiles,
• Paper and paper products,
• Chemicals and plastics,
• Wood and wooden articles,
• Rubber.
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Similarly, we have only considered the services sub-sectors where the use of cogeneration is already
meaningful, corresponding to around 40 % of the consumption of electricity and thermal energy
(excluding road fuels) of this sector. It is, therefore, assumed that the margin of error arising from the
non-fulfilment of the total potential in these sectors will be compensated by the existing potential in
the less significant sectors.
The evolution of the potential is determined based on the application of the same assumptions
related to the evolution of the demand for heating and cooling, determined based on the PRIMES
model.
In order to analyse possible strategies, policies and measures for the realisation of the potential
identified, it is considered fundamental to identify first of all the interest in that implementation
given the outcomes of the assessment in the most important or more indicated target sectors, whilst
analysing the outcomes of the previous stages. It is also important to analyse the existing incentives
and their possible influence in obtaining the intended outcome. Given these two points, one can
anticipate the possible need to modify or add measures that adjust the interest of individual
investors to the social interest of promoting the realization of the identified potential.
The estimate of the economic potential was carried out based on the methodology used in the
European Project CODE2 (Code2, 2014) and also based on the data supplied by REN (REN, 2016) with
the predicted evolution of consumption until 2024.
Finally, there was a cost-benefit analysis carried out of individual projects associated to industrial
units and/or large service buildings, when the heating consumption justified it. This analysis focused
on the generic viability of those projects on an individual basis in terms of electrical capacity, taking
into account different size categories and certain conditions that limited use under two essential
perspectives: the perspective of the investor and the perspective of society.
This work was carried out taking into account the fact that the data provided had some limitations,
which will be detailed in sub-chapter 3.2 of this report.
3.1 References for the calculation of the potential for thermal substitution
The precise calculation of the cogeneration technical potential would require detailed data on a large
number of various consumers of energy, so as to be able to estimate in each case the share of heat,
cooling and electricity that could be generated through cogeneration. As mentioned, it was necessary
to use a simplified approach to attempt to estimate the share of the consumption of heat that can be
replaced for each sector of activity. For that reason, and since consumption in the industrial sector is
less dependent on the specific characteristics of the country or territory, and also less dependent on
weather, it was decided to use the reference values documented in the bibliography to estimate the
maximum technical potential in the industry sub-sectors. It should be noted that the real technical
potential could face other important restrictions, namely those imposed by the electricity network,
CHP2016 (Final Report)
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which cannot be determined in a macro approach.
According to Klotz et al 2014, the consumption of heat at temperatures under 300 °C, which are
considered to be possible to replace for a source of residual heat, are distributed by the different
sub-sectors of the manufacturing industry, according to Table 1:
Table 1 - Proportion of the consumption of heat that can be supplied through a source of residual heat (Klotz et al 2014)
Food and tobacco 100.00 %
Car manufacturing 82.00 %
Quarries and mines 99.00 %
Glass and ceramic products 7.00 %
Raw chemicals 41.00 %
Rubber and plastic 100.00 %
Machinery 69.00 %
Processing of metals 19.00 %
Metal fabrication 30.00 %
Non-ferrous metals/foundries 32.00 %
Paper 100.00 %
Other chemicals 90.00 %
Processing of stone and soil 10.00 %
Rest of the economy 81.00 %
3.2 Limitations of the profiling resulting from the data available
Directive 2012/27/EU requires an exhaustive assessment of the national potential for heating and
cooling, which implies the creation of a map of the national territory that identifies heating and
cooling demand areas, including:
• municipalities and conurbations with a plot ratio of at least 0.33;
• industrial zones with a total annual heating and cooling consumption of more than 20
GWh,
• existing and planned district heating and cooling infrastructures.
With regard to the first point, the methodology used to attempt to overcome the limitation resulting
from the lack of that information has already been described. However, it should be emphasized that
the result that was possible to reach will not correspond exactly to the required, as it is not possible
to subtract some areas not corresponding to buildings, namely streets.
In relation to the second point, no information was obtained that allowed the precise determination
3 The ratio between the building floor area to the land area in a given territory.
CHP2016 (Final Report)
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of the geographic location of industrial areas, much less their consumption. Many of the so-called
industrial parks are often a cluster of buildings of service companies with small consumption. As a
matter of fact, the industrial fabric of most municipalities is dispersed throughout the territory. Since
it was impossible to achieve a single identification of industrial consumption that could allow the
consideration of a search by area of the large energy consuming industries, data from the DGEG was
used for each municipality individually, so as to identify consumption exclusively within the industrial
sector of more than 20 GWh. In this methodology, the zone was delimited by the municipality
boundaries.
On the third point, we only know of the location of the heating and cooling urban supply network of
the Parque das Nações in Lisbon, which in any case will be the only effective example of that type of
network, although there are also other small networks supplying industrial or service buildings.
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4 Agriculture and fisheries sector
4.1 Energy profile in the agriculture and fisheries sector
In order to create an adequate profile of energy needs, namely the demand for heat and cooling, it
will be necessary to identify what are the main energy sources and determine the consumption of
primary energy in this activity sector.
Figure 4.1 shows the breakdown of final energy in the agriculture and fisheries sector for the year
2014, as well as the evolution of consumption in terms of final energy for this activity sector for the
period 2008-2014. However, this breakdown does not include the consumption of renewable
energies, namely biomass, since there is no official data for the consumption of this type of energy
source for this sector broken down by municipality.
Looking at Figure 4.1, it can be seen that the most important energy sources are diesel, followed by
electricity, natural gas (NG) and LPG (propane, butane and automotive LPG). There are also some
relatively important consumptions of fuel, petrol and petroleum products (for illumination and as
propellant).
In terms of evolution of consumption, it can be seen that the consumption of diesel saw a significant
reduction between 2009 and 2012, which can be explained by the slowing of the economy, and also
due to the significant increase in the price of oil. The reduction in the consumption of diesel can also
be explained by a reduction in the fishing fleet during this period, which has a consumption of
significant weight in this sector (INE, Fishing Statistics 2010). In relation to electricity, consumption
remained relatively constant during the 2008-2012 period, and it only saw a reduction in 2013 and
2014. This reduction can be due to several reasons, such as the slowing of the economy, or due to an
increased energy efficiency as a result of the installation of more efficient illumination equipment
and systems.
The consumption of LPG has followed a negative trend since 2008, largely due to the increase in the
price of oil, especially during the period of the European financial crisis, and also due to the reduction
of activity during the same period. Another reason for this decrease might have been the increase in
the use of other (cheaper) energy sources, leading to an increase in the use of biomass. NG followed
the opposite trend, with an increase in consumption between 2008 and 2013 as a result of the fact
that it is cheaper that LPG or diesel; this tendency was only reverted in 2014. There are also other
combustible fuels being consumed, although in smaller amounts than the above and of reduced
importance for the general picture. That is the case of petrol and petroleum products (for
illumination and as propellant), which are used in very specific situations and/or with very specific
equipment.
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Petroleum as
Electricity LPG Petrol Chemical Illumination
Naphtha and Propellant
Diesel Fuel Petroleum Lubricants Asphalt
coke
Paraffin Solvents NG
2008 85.873 8 806 995 0 930 264 470 2 374 0 391 0 0 0 3 318
2009 84 830 7 157 1 492 0 1 079 238 609 3 599 0 456 0 1 0 4 508
2010 88 164 7 419 1 078 0 932 233 932 4 011 0 420 0 0 0 6 313 2011 84 381 6 293 436 0 726 237 207 4 673 0 341 0 0 0 7 596
2012 86 369 6 400 486 0 800 234 760 2 560 0 329 0 0 0 8 170
2013 79 573 5 123 859 0 705 269 588 1 874 0 309 0 0 0 9 893
2014 70 912 4 644 480 0 592 266 630 3 143 0 342 0 0 0 7 862
Cons
umpt
ion
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280 000 260 000 240 000 220.000 200 000 180 000 160 000 140 000 120 000 100 000
80 000 60 000 40 000 20 000
0
Agriculture and fisheries
Coal (hard coal/anthracite/cok
e)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Energy Source
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Figure 4.1 - Breakdown of final energy in the agriculture and fisheries sector (Source: DGEG)
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Dist
ricts
/ Isl
ands
4.2 Description of the demand for heat and cooling
Energy consumption associated with this sector is very heterogeneous. The preferred areas for
agricultural production are those where both the climate and soil are most adequate for that activity
and activities associated with fishing are restricted to the coastal area. As such, the consumption in
this sector in Continental Portugal, Madeira and the Azores, broken down by district, has the
distribution shown in Figure 4.2.
Energy consumption by district in Continental Portugal, the Azores and Madeira in the agriculture and fisheries sector
Viseu 92.78 Vila Real 27.70
Viana do Castelo Setúbal
Santarém
23.63 311.62
344.88
Porto Portalegre
Lisbon Leiria
Guarda Faro
Évora
12.64
48.84
90.19
164.04
238.77
277.78
315.07
Coimbra 68.77 Castelo Branco
Bragança Braga
Beja Aveiro
Madeira Azores
25.03
19.30
64.93
88.24
128.30
129.59
297.13 0.00 50.00 100.00 150.00 200.00 250.00 300.00 350.00 400.00
Energy Consumption [GWh]
Figure 4.2 - Energy consumption by district in Continental Portugal, the Azores and Madeira in
the agriculture and fisheries sector [Source: DGEG 2014]
Figure 4.2 shows that consumption in this sector has a higher incidence in the strip between Setúbal
and Leiria, although there are other regions in Continental Portugal with high consumption rates,
such as Évora, Porto, Braga and Aveiro. The abovementioned strip of territory has a high density of
agricultural holdings, fruit and vegetable holdings, etc., which results in a significant percentage of
consumption at national level. This strip of territory also has a more temperate climate and smaller
variations in temperature than regions further north or south, therefore allowing higher production
rates. It is also important to highlight that the Azores show one of the highest consumption rates in
this sector, which are the result of the agricultural holdings present in that region.
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According to the data made available by the DGEG in the 2014 energy balance, the consumption of
thermal energy for heating represents 4.66 % of the energy consumption of the agriculture and
fisheries sector.
The consumption of energy in this sector is mostly associated with the production of cooling in
refrigeration and freezing chambers. The estimate made of the breakdown of this type of
consumption was based on a study carried out by the University of Porto (Clito Afonso, Hugo Manuel
Pinto and João Paulo Pinto, 2016), which states that, on average, 72 % of the electricity consumption
in agriculture and 61 % of the electricity consumption in fisheries in Portugal are for cooling. These
values result in an average of 66.5 % (in respect of the consumption of electricity) for the production
of cooling in the agriculture and fisheries sector.
As such, and for the purposes of the calculation of the heating and cooling needs in agriculture and
fisheries, the ratios in Table 2 were applied.
Table 2 - Thermal needs in the agriculture and fisheries sector
Agriculture and fisheries
Heating needs 4.66 % of the total energy consumption of the sector
Cooling needs 66.5 % of the electricity consumption of the sector
Using the abovementioned values for the consumption percentages of heating and cooling, it can be
seen that the demand for heat and cooling has the distribution shown in figure 4.3.
Figure 4.3 - Heat/cooling needs by district in the agriculture and fisheries sector [GWh]
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Figure 4.3 Legend:
Portuguese: English: Necessidades de Calor/Frio por Distrito no Setor da Agricultura e Pescas [GWh]
Heat/cooling needs by district in the agriculture and fisheries sector [GWh]
Açores The Azores Lisboa Lisbon
The distribution of consumption by district allows us to have an initial idea of the regions where we
will most likely find high concentrations of consumption, in an attempt to identify areas with a
consumption above the 20 GWh specified by the directive, and which will be the target of the
mapping carried out in chapter 8 based on the consumption by council area, the highest possible
level of detail with the existing data. Figure 4.3 shows several districts (corresponding to 36
municipalities) above 20 GWh. In terms of municipalities, there are only two municipalities (Almada
and Vila Franca de Xira) where the consumption of heat or cooling in the agriculture and fisheries
sector is above 20 GWh.
Figure 4.4 summarises this information.
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Total number of municipalities in Continental Portugal, Madeira and the Azores - 307
Percentage of municipalities with consumption in the agriculture and fisheries sector of more than 20 GWh (top graph).
Percentage of municipalities with heat and cooling consumption of more than 20 GWh (bottom graph).
Consumption by municipalities in the agriculture and fisheries sector
% of municipalities with consumption in the agriculture and fisheries sector of more than 20 GWh
% of municipalities with consumption in the agriculture and fisheries sector of less than 20 GWh
Consumption of heat and cooling by municipalities in the agriculture and fisheries sector
% of municipalities with consumption of heat and cooling of more than 20 GWh
% of municipalities with consumption of heat and cooling of less than 20 GWh
Figure 4.4 - Statistics of municipalities in Continental Portugal, Madeira and the Azores for the Agriculture and Fisheries Sector (Source: DGEG 2014)
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5 Industrial sector
The industrial sector is not considered to be dependent on the climate variations from region to
region, since most of the thermal needs result from the manufacturing and production process itself.
It is important to draw a profile of the energy consumption patterns of the various industry sub-
sectors, so as to put them into groups, thus simplifying the analysis.
Since the heating and cooling needs are very heterogeneous as far as their use is concerned (which
means that the process of profiling them is a very complex process), we identified the average values
for the demand of heating and cooling in the industrial sector based on consumption data from 2014
and on studies carried out by several entities (ADENE, FEUP, ISR-University of Coimbra, etc.). These
values will be explained in more detail on Chapter 5.2.
5.1 Energy profile in the industrial sector
In order to create a profile of energy needs, namely the demand for heat and cooling in the industrial
sector and its spatial distribution, it will be necessary to identify what are the main energy sources of
energy and determine the consumption of primary energy in this activity sector. Figure 5.1 shows the
breakdown of final energy for 2014, as well as the evolution of consumption in terms of final energy
for this activity sector for the 2008-2014 period. However, this breakdown does not include the
consumption of renewable energies, namely biomass, since there is no official data for the
consumption of this energy source for this sector broken down by municipality.
Looking at Figure 5.1, it can be seen that the most important energy sources are NG, electricity,
petroleum coke and LPG. There is also a relevant level of consumption of diesel and fuel. In terms of
evolution of consumption, it can be seen that the consumption of NG has been increasing year-on-
year, with the exception of 2009. The decrease in 2009 can be explained by the reduction in
industrial activity caused by a reduction in demand as the result of the economic crisis. In 2013 and
2014 the economy started recovering again and there was an increase in demand in the internal and
external markets, which resulted in an increase in the consumption of NG. However, there was a
slight reduction in consumption in 2014.
The consumption of electricity in the industrial sector has remained very stable throughout the years.
This consumption is often not directly associated with production or with the amount of products
manufactured; as it is often associated with the parts of the production process for which
consumption does not vary much according to the levels of production.
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Until 2012, petroleum coke showed a similar trend to chemical naphtha. In 2013 that trend was
suddenly reversed and its consumption has been increasing. This product is mainly used as
combustible fuel in the cement and ceramics industry, although in a much smaller quantity in the
latter; for that reason, the increase in consumption can be associated with an increase in activity in
companies within these sectors.
The consumption of LPG in the industrial sector has not had a constant pattern of evolution, showing
several increases and decreases. From 2013 there was a period of two years where its consumption
increased effectively, with a marked increase in 2014. The remaining sources of energy have a very
reduced level of consumption, since they are used in very specific circumstances.
Analysing some of the industrial sub-sectors, it is possible to have a better idea of the energy sources
used the most, as well as the evolution of consumption by sub-sector over time (Figure 5.2). The data
shown demonstrates the particularities of each sector and, on the whole, shows that the two main
sources of energy in these sub-sectors are natural gas and electricity, although there is also a large
level of use of diesel and fuel in the food industry.
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Petroleum Electricity Chemical as
Coal Petroleum (Hard coal/An
LPG Petrol NaphthaIllumination and
Propellant
Diesel Fuel Coke Lubricants Asphalt Paraffin Solvents NG tracite/Co ke
2008 1 416 091 231 433 1 907 699 151 43 129 571 213 065 534 506 17 866 20 797 10 257 6 199 1 184 665 71 319
2009 1 295 602 116 589 1 676 612 907 41 82 588 199 611 462 500 15 229 14 011 8 436 4 644 1 058 488 22 349
2010 1 408 192 148 372 3 306 935 320 52 123 862 198 457 441 078 19 043 19 759 9 737 4 219 1 250 307 50 221
2011 1 388 777 172 645 143 866 974 26 115 311 136 662 374 878 17 329 4 928 10 864 3 637 1 298 502 20 239
2012 1 342 949 80 623 422 591 164 30 91 822 122 683 313 305 12 214 4 810 11 046 3 477 1 315 553 18 761
2013 1 347 236 352 079 31 560 933 28 89 925 90 527 334 823 9 317 0 9 485 3 703 1 566 590 18 620
2014 1 364 759 550 641 18 536 589 54 101 401 91 214 384 177 11 179 0 9 502 2 099 1 529 620 12 386
Energy Source
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Cons
umpt
ion
1 600 000
Industry
1 400 000
1 200 000
1 000 000
800 000
600 000
400 000
200 000
0
Figure 5.1 - Breakdown of final energy in the industrial sector [Source: DGEG]
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Cons
umpt
ion
Co
nsum
ptio
n
Cons
umpt
ion
Co
nsum
ptio
n
150 000
100 000
50 000
0
CAE 10 - Food Industries
150 000
100 000
50 000
0
CAE 13 - Manufacture of Textiles
Energy Source Energy Source
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
CAE 24 - Manufacture of Basic Metals CAE 32 - Other Manufacturing Industries
150 000 100 000
50 000 0
6 000 4 000 2 000
0
Energy Source Energy Source
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
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Cons
umpt
ion
Cons
umpt
ion
CAE 17 - Manufacture of pulp, paper and board
300 000 225 000 150 000
75 000 0
500 000 400 000 300 000 200 000 100 000
0
CAE 19 - Manufacture of coke, refined petroleum products
Energy Source Energy Source
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Figure 5.2 - Evolution of the industry sub-sectors during the 2008-2014 period [Source: DGEG]
Figure 5.2 Legend: Portuguese: English: Eletricidade Electricity GPL LPG Gasolina Petrol Petróleo... Oil... Gasóleo Diesel Fuel Fuel Lubrificantes Lubricants GN NG Asfaltos Asphalt Solventes Solvents Coque de... ...coke Carvão Coal Parafinas Paraffin
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Dist
ricts
/ Isl
ands
5.2 Description of the demand for heat and cooling
The energy consumption associated with this sector has a high geographic spread. Only in the last 20
to 30 years have municipalities been investing in the creation of areas and industrial parks for
businesses and industry. Prior to that, they would establish themselves in the place they deemed
most convenient for their activity and, as such, nowadays consumption is relatively dispersed across
the municipalities.
The consumption in this sector in Continental Portugal, Madeira and the Azores, broken down by
district, has the distribution shown in Figure 5.3.
Energy consumption by district in Continental Portugal, the Azores
and Madeira in the industrial sector Viseu
Vila Real Viana do Castelo
Setúbal Santarém
Porto Portalegre
Lisbon Leiria
Guarda Faro
Évora Coimbra
Castelo Branco Bragança
Braga Beja
Aveiro Madeira
Azores
428.72 70.94
495.80
1 191.63
100.79 3 057.87
1 517.31 86.21
453.89 168.93
2 939.74 325.31
38.00 1 398.13
431.39 2 603.57
1 259.55 1 439.98
7 808.67
16 632.55
0 5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000
Energy Consumption [GWh]
Figure 5.3 - Energy consumption by district in Continental Portugal, the Azores and Madeira in the industrial sector [Source: DGEG 2014]
The data used to produce figure 5.3 was made available by the DGEG and was processed in order to
be able to show a breakdown by district. In this manner, it can be seen that the areas with greater
consumption are the coastal areas, or areas relatively near the coastline, where the number of
companies set up is normally higher. Setúbal and Porto stand out from the other districts, due to the
consumption of the refineries of Sines and Matosinhos, respectively. Madeira and the Azores also
stand out due to their food and drink industries.
According to the data made available by the DGEG in the 2014 energy balance, heating needs
account for 67.1 % of the energy consumption of the industrial sector.
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Cooling needs are not directly shown in this balance. A quick analysis of the activity sub-sectors will
show that the cooling needs are met mainly by the use of electricity (industrial cooling for specific
applications). It was then necessary to break down the consumption of electricity in this sector, in
order to ascertain the ratio of consumption of energy for cooling. According to ADENE4 (the
Portuguese energy agency), the consumption of cooling by the industry represents, on average, 4 %
of the electricity consumption of this sector in Portugal. As such, and for the purposes of the
calculation of the heating and cooling needs in the industrial sector, the ratios in Table 3 were
applied.
Table 3 - Thermal needs in the industrial sector
Industry
Heat needs 67.1 % of the total energy consumption of the sector
Cooling needs 4 % of the electricity consumption of the sector
Using the abovementioned values for the consumption percentages of heat and cooling, it can be
seen that the demand for heat and cooling has the weight in the distribution per district shown in
Figure 5.4.
4 ADENE – Technical Guide of systems powered by electric engines for the industry - http://www.adene.pt/parceiro/guia-tecnico-de-sistemas-accionados-por-motores-electricos
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Figure 5.4 - Heat/cooling needs by district in the industrial sector [GWh]
Figure 4.3 Legend:
Portuguese: English: Necessidades de Calor/Frio por Distrito no Setor da Indústria [GWh]
Heat/cooling needs by district in the industrial sector [GWh]
Açores The Azores Lisboa Lisbon
Unlike the agriculture and fisheries sector, in the industrial sector heat has a greater weight than
cooling. Most production processes need or produce heat, which means that there is a great share of
consumption spent in the production of that same heat which can be replaced by cogeneration.
As in the previous case, the distribution of consumption by district allows us to have an initial idea of
the regions where we will most likely find high concentrations of consumption, in an attempt to
identify areas with consumption of more than the threshold of 20 GWh stated in the directive, and
which will be the target of the mapping carried out in Chapter 8, based on the consumption by
council area. In this case, there are 127 municipalities where the total consumption is higher than
20 GWh. However, in relation to the consumption of heat and cooling, only around 106
municipalities exceed the 20 GWh threshold.
Figure 5.5 summarises all this information.
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Total number of municipalities in Continental Portugal, Madeira and the Azores - 307
Percentage of municipalities with consumption in the industrial sector of more than 20 GWh (top graph)
Percentage of municipalities with heat and cooling consumption of more than 20 GWh (bottom graph)
Consumption by municipalities in the industrial sector
% of municipalities with consumption in the industrial sector of more than 20 GWh
% of municipalities with consumption in the industrial sector of less than 20 GWh
Consumption of heat and cooling by municipalities in the industrial sector
% of municipalities with consumption of heat and cooling of more than 20 GWh
% of municipalities with consumption of heat and cooling of less than 20 GWh Figure 5.5 - Statistics of the municipalities in Continental Portugal, Madeira and the Azores
for the industrial sector (Source: DGEG 2014)
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6 Services sector
In recent decades, this sector has had a greater impact in the national economy, representing around
67.3 % of jobs of the active population in Portugal in 2014 (INE, Employment Statistics 2014).
Similarly to the industrial sector, the services sector is very heterogeneous, ranging from small
commercial units to large shopping centres, large hospitals, and it also includes office blocks, schools,
sporting facilities, hotels, etc. There is a wide variance both in terms of size (area, number of people)
and number of hours of use, which makes the determination of the typical thermal needs by sub-
sector difficult.
In the data provided by the DGEG, consumers are identified by the CAE, which conditioned the
identification of the global consumption of each of the sub-sectors, since there are always premises
where the consumption can be allocated to more than one CAE, even when using 5 digit CAEs.
In general terms, the thermal demand in this sector is influenced by the climate zone and by the
purpose of the building. In the absence of data connecting the activity carried out in the building with
the climate zone, it was necessary to use the energy balance of 2014 and identify the average values
for thermal needs. Having also consulted the bibliography (Klotz et al 2014) there was a percentage
of heat identified that could be replaced with cogeneration.
There are various types of buildings in this sector that have different heat and cooling needs, namely:
• Hospitals and health centres (CAE 86 – Human health activities)
• Buildings for Central Administration (CAE 84 – Buildings for public administration and defence)
• Schools (CAE 85 - Education)
• Shopping Centres (CAE 47 – Retail trade, except for motor vehicles and motorcycles)
• Hotels (CAE 55 - Accommodation)
Despite the use for different purposes of each of building, there was an average value defined for
heat that can be replaced, which will subsequently be used.
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6.1 Energy profile in the services sector
In order to create a profile of energy needs, namely the demand for heat and cooling in services, it is
advisable to describe the main sources of energy and the final energy consumption in this activity
sector. Figure 6.1 shows the breakdown of primary energy for the year 2014, as well as the evolution
of consumption in terms of primary energy for this activity sector for the 2008-2014 period.
Looking at Figure 6.1, it can be seen that the most important energy sources are diesel (mostly due to
road transports associated with service companies), NG, electricity and petrol. Despite being
immediately followed by fuel and LPG, these two have much lower consumption values.
In terms of evolution of consumption, it can be seen that the consumption of NG, which is the main
combustible fuel, increased during the 2008-2011 period. From that point onwards, it has seen
successive reductions, which can be associated with improvements in efficiency (substitution by
other energy sources or substitution of equipment), reduction of the economic activity or even the
reduction in heating needs in cases where this energy source is used. The consumption of petrol and
fuel have constantly decreased since 2008. The consumption of electricity in service companies has
remained constant, possibly because it is significantly detached from the economic activity itself.
There is still the consumption of other combustible fuels, although on a smaller scale than the above,
the relevance of which for the overall panorama is minor, such as in the case of petroleum products
(for illumination and as propellant), which are used in very specific situations.
A quick analysis of some of the industry sub-sectors will provide a better idea of the energy sources
used the most, as well as the evolution of consumption over time, shown in Figure 6.2.
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Electricity
LPG
Petrol
Chemical Naphtha
Petroleum for
Illumination and as
Propellant
Fuel
Petroleum Coke
Lubricants
Asphalts
Paraffin
Solvents
NG
2008 1 474 234 162 377 1 560 858 0 36 1 003 747 0 65 705 397 467 498 180 2 592 387 2009 1 593 880 160 485 1 514 222 0 130 803 910 0 52 494 424 540 290 188 2 705 142 2010 1 601 176 642 829 1 437 162 0 24 619 610 0 49 724 315 401 72 39 2 841 913 2011 1 571 126 575 095 1 307 093 0 60 530 399 0 44 499 310 739 0 598 2 887 964 2012 1 514 665 523 071 1 189 956 0 53 440 276 0 36 766 245 188 130 570 2 278 372 2013 1 490 219 120 486 1 147 588 0 99 292 547 0 38 202 193 935 0 295 1 837 881 2014 1 509 044 120 436 1 147 140 0 2 243 042 0 38 720 131 562 355 829 1 695 730
Cons
umpt
ion
5 500 000
Services
4 500 000
3 500 000
2 500 000
1 500 000
500 000
-500 000
Energy Source
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Figure 6.1 – Breakdown of final energy in the services sector (Source: DGEG)
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Cons
umpt
ion
Cons
umpt
ion
Elec
tric
ity
LPG
Petr
oleu
m
Illum
inat
ion
Dies
el
Fuel
Lubr
ican
ts
Asph
alt
NG
62 000.00
52 000.00
42 000.00
32 000.00
22 000.00
12 000.00
2 000.00
-8 000.00
CAE 86 - Human Health Activities CAE 84 - Public Administration and Defence 160 000 140 000 120 000 100 000
80 000 60 000 40 000 20 000
0
Energy Source
Toe
Energy Source
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Elec
tric
ity
LPG
Dies
el
Fuel
Lu
bric
ants
As
phal
t N
G
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Cons
umpt
ion
Cons
umpt
ion
El
ectr
icity
LPG
Dies
el
Fuel
Lubr
ican
ts
NG
Cons
umpt
ion
Elec
tric
ity
LPG
Petr
ol
Petr
oleu
m fo
r ill
umin
atio
n an
d…
Dies
el
Fuel
NG
Para
ffin
Lubr
ican
ts
50 000 40 000 30 000 20 000 10 000
0
CAE 85 - Education
CAE 47 – Retail Trade, Except for Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles
300 000 225 000 150 000
75 000 0
Toe Energy Source
Toe Energy Source
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
70 000 60 000 50 000 40 000 30 000 20 000 10 000
0
CAE 55 - Accommodation
Electricity LPG Diesel Fuel Lubricants NG
Toe Energy Source
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Figure 6.2 - Evolution of consumption in the services sub-sectors during the 2008-2014 period [Source: DGEG]
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Looking at the sub-sectors shown in Figure 6.2, it can be seen that their behaviour and evolution is
very similar. In some sub-sectors, the consumption of electricity increased until 2011 and has been
decreasing since then. In others, consumption has remained approximately constant since 2008.
Consumption of LPG, diesel and fuel either remained constant or has decreased, whilst the
consumption of NG increased in practically all sub-sectors. This could mean that combustible fuels
were replaced, in these instances in favour of NG. Figure 6.2 shows similar behaviours in various sub-
sectors, although changes, both in terms of the source of energy or in the pattern of consumption,
could be motivated by different reasons in each sub-sector. In any case, this similar behaviour
supports the use of average values in this study, both in the demand for heat and cooling and in the
heat value that can be replaced by cogeneration.
6.2 Description of the demand for heat and cooling
The energy consumption associated with this sector varies a lot and it is normally associated with
large population centres where there is a greater concentration of companies and services.
Consumption in this sector, especially in relation to the air-conditioning of buildings, is affected by
the climate of the regions (despite the very mild climate in Portugal) namely in the coastal regions
where most of the population lives. Average consumption in terms of thermal energy varies a lot
within this sector, since the buildings included range from hospitals (with very specific thermal needs
and highly controlled environment), to shopping centres, schools, hotels, restaurants, offices,
hypermarkets, etc.
There is still a very important factor to consider in relation to the air-conditioning of these spaces:
the human factor. The sensation of comfort varies from person to person, which conditions
consumption, especially in buildings destined to the hotel trade and offices, where there is a greater
index of individual control of the air-conditioning systems.
Figure 6.3 shows the breakdown of consumption in Continental Portugal, Madeira and the Azores in
the services sector.
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Dist
ricts
/ Isl
ands
Energy consumption by district in Continental Portugal, the Azores and Madeira in the services sector
Viseu Vila Real
Viana do Castelo Setúbal
702.72 337.88 366.56
1 644.63 Santarém
Porto Portalegre
Lisbon Leiria
Guarda Faro
209.10
349.23
1 016.52 1 034.06
1 283.99
3 373.20
4 742.06
Évora Coimbra
Castelo Branco Bragança
Braga Beja
437.55 825.64
401.57 295.48
381.38
1 538.01
Aveiro Madeira
Azores
1 213.73 687.34
481.39 0.00 1 000.00 2 000.00 3 000.00 4 000.00 5 000.00 6 000.00 7 000.00 8 000.00
Energy Consumption [GWh]
Figure 6.3 – Energy consumption by district in Continental Portugal, the Azores and Madeira in the services sector [Source: DGEG 2014]
In Figure 6.3, it can be seen that the districts with the highest number of inhabitants have the highest
consumption, such as Lisbon, Porto, Setúbal, Braga, Santarém, and Aveiro, etc. The number of
inhabitants is proportional to the amount of services the populations needs, as well as to the number
of jobs available in this sector. As previously mentioned, this sector employed more than 67 % of the
active population in 2014, with a greater concentration of services in the larger residential areas
(municipality and district capitals).
The heating and cooling needs in this sector vary substantially, but according to the data made
available in the conference on energy efficiency in the services sector organised by the OE - The
Portuguese Society of Engineers5 , the cooling thermal needs in the services sector are as shown in
the following Table 4. The value for heating shown in Table 4 has been taken from the 2014 energy
balance.
5 Conference on energy efficiency in the services sector - http://www.ordemengenheiros.pt/fotos/dossier_artigo/05_20120511_jhormigo_12940243444fb2895ac0780.pdf
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Table 4 - Thermal needs in the services sector
Services
Heat needs 21.8 % of the total energy consumption of the sector
Cooling needs 17.7 % of the electricity consumption of the sector
The values shown in Table 4 are average values, but there are buildings with very different uses, such
as hypermarkets, where most of the cooling consumption is for refrigerated storage and where
heating needs are not very high due to the heat produced by the equipment, lighting and people in
the building. In the hotel trade, for example, the fact that air-conditioning is controlled
independently in each room means that the human factor is a key factor in the variation of
consumption in this sector. Therefore, we decided to use average values in order to minimise errors
in the calculation of the demand for heating that can be replaced. Therefore, using the
abovementioned values for the consumption percentages of heat/cooling, it can be seen that the
demand for heat and cooling has the distribution shown in figure 6.4.
Figure 6.4 - Heat/cooling needs by district in the services sector [GWh]
Figure 6.4 Legend:
Portuguese: English: Necessidades de Calor/Frio no Setor dos Heat/cooling needs in the services sector
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Serviços [GWh] [GWh] Açores The Azores Lisboa Lisbon
Using the available data at council area level, 252 municipalities can be identified where
consumption is greater than 20 GWh. In relation to the heating/cooling consumption, only 122
municipalities reach the consumption threshold of 20 GWh.
Figure 6.5 summarises all this information.
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Total number of municipalities in Continental Portugal, Madeira and the Azores - 307
Percentage of municipalities with consumption in the services sector of more than 20 GWh (top graph)
Percentage of municipalities with heat and cooling consumption of more than 20 GWh (bottom graph)
Consumption by municipalities in the industrial sector
% of municipalities with consumption in the industrial sector of more than 20 GWh
% of municipalities with consumption in the industrial sector of less than 20 GWh
Consumption of heat and cooling by municipalities in the industrial sector
% of municipalities with consumption of heat and cooling of more than 20 GWh
% of municipalities with consumption of heat and cooling of less than 20 GWh
Figure 6.5 - Statistics of municipalities in Continental Portugal, Madeira and the Azores for the services sector (Source: DGEG 2014)
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7 Residential sector
7.1 Description of the demand for heat and cooling
The residential sector in Portugal has very low consumption rates when compared with the other
European countries, especially in relation to consumption of heat and even for space cooling, as
shown in Figure 7.1 and 7.2.
Figure 7.1 - Consumption of energy by dwelling broken down by final use in 2012 (Lapillonne, Bruno, Karine Pollier 2015)
Figure 7.2 – Consumption for heating by m2 (Lapillonne, Bruno, Karine Pollier 2015)
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Figures 7.1 & 7.2 Legend:
Portuguese: English: Aquecimento Heating Aq. Água Water heating Cozinha Kitchen Aplicações Applications Iluminação Illumination AC AC Média Average Tep/habitação Toe/dwelling Malta Malta Portugal Portugal Bulgária Bulgaria Espanha Spain Chipre Cyprus Croácia Croatia Grécia Greece Roménia Romania Itália Italy Lituânia Lithuania Eslováquia Slovakia EU EU Polónia Poland Holanda Holland República Checa Czech Republic França France Reino Unido United Kingdom Irlanda Ireland Alemanha Germany Estónia Estonia Eslovénia Slovenia Noruega Norway Dinamarca Denmark Letónia Latvia Suécia Sweden Hungria Hungary Bélgica Belgium Áustria Austria Finlândia Finland
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Even then, according to the DGEG (2016), between 2000 and 2014 the consumption of the residential
sector mirrored the decreasing tendency of energy consumption at global level, with a reduction of
12.7 %. One of the explanations for that fact is the evolution of the number of dwellings. In 2014, the
number of housing buildings was estimated at around 3.6 million and the number of dwellings at 5.9
million, of which only 13 % of the buildings corresponded to multi-family buildings. However, the
construction of new buildings decreased in 2000, as can be seen in Figure 7.3, with the number of
works completed in 2013 corresponding to around 38.4 % of the number verified in 2000, with about
a third corresponding to rehabilitation works.
Figure 7.3 - Number of classic and dwelling buildings (INE 2015)
Figure 7.3 Legend:
Portuguese: English: Milhares Thousand Edifícios Buildings Alojamentos Dwellings Norte North Centro Centre Área M. Lisboa Lisbon metropolitan area Alentejo Alentejo Algarve Algarve RA Açores The Azores RA Madeira Madeira Fonte: INE, Estimativas do Parque Habitacional Source: INE, Estimates of the housing stock
According to the DGEG (2016), the reduction of consumption at an average rate of -4.4 % per annum
since 2009 is associated with the increase of energy efficiency resulting from multiple measures
implemented and with the improvement of equipment, as well as with the increase of rates and
higher energy prices.
The improvement in efficiency is apparently greater in respect of space heating, with a reduction of
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around 31.7 % between 2000 and 2013 and of around 28.8 % in respect of cooking and HWSP.
In terms of consumption by final use, cooking has the highest share, with around 39 % of the final
consumption, followed by water heating with 23 %. However, in the former, electricity is the main
source, whereas water heating is mainly carried out by means of LPG cylinders. The share for lighting
is small, corresponding only to 4.5 % of consumption, and consumption for space cooling is negligible
(ICESD, 2010).
In 2014, the distribution of consumption by source and final use in the residential sector are as
shown in Figure 7.4. The significant importance of the consumption of biomass should he
highlighted, which has a predominant weight in space heating (72 %), as well as the still very relevant
weight of LPG for water heating (41 %).
Figure 7.4 - Distribution of residential consumption by source in 2014 - figures in ktoe. Source: DGEG
Figure 7.4 Legend:
Portuguese: English: Total Total Aquecimento Heating Arrefecimento Cooling AQS HSWP Biomassa Biomass Solar Térmica Thermal solar Total gás/gasóleo Total gas/diesel GPL LPG Gás Gas Eletricidade Electricity
The evolution of consumption towards greater efficiency may also have been affected by several
efficiency improvement programmes which included the residential and services sector, including the
promotion of more efficient equipment, efficient lighting, windows, insulation, the certification of
buildings and the integration of renewable energies.
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The reduced consumption for air-conditioning in Portugal is no doubt closely linked with the more
mild climate when compared with other countries, as shown in Figure 7.5, which shows the average
number of degrees day for the 1980-2004 period in the E-27 countries, where Portugal appears with
the third lowest value, with a figure equal to less than half of the European average and around a
fourth of the highest figure (Finland), corresponding closely to the figures per dwelling as illustrated
in Figure 7.1 and Figure 7.2.
Figure 7.5 - Average number of degrees day for the 1980-2004 period in 27 European countries (Bertoldi et al. 2012)
Even so, Portugal's geography causes significant variations in different regions, as shown in Figure
7.6, with some of them displaying characteristics closer to other European countries with greater
consumption. However, in this figure it can be seen that the region where most of the population is
concentrated, corresponding to the coastal region between Setúbal and Braga (Figure 7.7), largely
coincides with the region with the least heating demand.
In terms of cooling, there was no data obtained that allowed a comparison at international level, but
the low average temperature levels shown in Figure 7.6, particularly in the region with the largest
concentration of population, also seems to justify the almost irrelevant level of consumption of
energy for heating in the residential sector, if we also take into account the short duration of the
season and the fact that it coincides with the holiday period.
The short duration and small importance of the heating seasons, associated with financial limitations,
will also serve as explanation in all the regions for the small number of dwellings with central heating,
as well as the significant number of dwellings for which there is no record of any heating system, as
shown in Figure 7.5.
Other relevant information corresponds to the source of energy used in the existing heating systems
as illustrated in Figure 7.9, which shows a marked importance of electric heating systems, namely in
the Lisbon region.
The information described in the last two paragraphs reveal, on the one hand, the potential for an
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increase in global efficiency if the non-centralised systems, and namely electric systems, were
replaced by the use of residual heating through heating distribution networks. However, it also
implies the need for very significant investments in the heat distribution network, also requiring
additional investment by the consumers to adapt their houses to those systems, with a potentially
long return on investment, given the reduced consumption and short duration of the heating season.
Figure 7.6 - Zoning for the purposes of the thermal envelope requirements (Aguiar 2013)
Figure 7.6 Legend:
Portuguese: English: Critério Criteria Zona zone
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Figure 7.7 - Urban fabric areas. Data: DGT
Figure 7.8 - Number of dwellings with heating system per region NUTS II. Data: (INE 2011)
Figure 7.8 Legend:
Portuguese: English: Milhares Thousands Norte North Centro Centre
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Lisboa Lisbon Alentejo Alentejo Algarve Algarve Açores The Azores Madeira Madeira Aq. Central Central heating Lareira aberta Open fireplace Recup. De calor Heat recovery Equipamentos móveis Mobile appliances Equipamentos fixos Fixed appliances Nenhum None
Figure 7.9 - Number of dwellings with heating system per region NUTS II - distribution per
energy source. (Source: INE 2011)
Figure 7.9 Legend:
Portuguese: English: Milhares Thousands Norte North Centro Centre Lisboa Lisbon Alentejo Alentejo Algarve Algarve Açores The Azores Madeira Madeira Outra (energia solar, geotérmica, ...) Other (solar energy, geothermal, ...) Gás natural, propano, butano ou outros combustíveis gasosos
Natural gas, propane, butane or other combustible gases
Petróleo, gasóleo ou outros combustíveis líquidos
Kerosene, diesel or other liquid fuels
Madeira, carvão ou outros combustíveis sólidos
Wood, coal or other solid combustible fuels
Electricidade Electricity
The evolution of consumption in the residential sector has evidenced a marked reduction, which has
followed the economic developments as well as the increase of efficiency in final uses, as shown in
Figure 7.10. A more detailed analysis of the data shows that the evolution has fluctuated around a
central tendency for linear reduction (Figure 7.11). The latter is probably the best basis for estimating
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the evolution in the near future, considering the combined effects of a stagnant, or even diminishing
demographic rate of growth, the slow economic growth and the expected increase in energy
efficiency, despite the imperfect adjustment of the linear trend curve to the evolution over the last
five years. It should be noted, however, that polynomial models that would result in a better
adjustment would show an evolution that is not very plausible should they be used to estimate future
consumption, whether because they would imply an increase in consumption in the short term
(quadratic model), or because they would imply a very accented reduction already in the next few
years (cubic model).
Figure 7.10 - Evolution of consumption in the residential sector (Source: DGEG)
Figure 7.10 Legend:
Portuguese: English: Aquecimento Heating Arrefecimento Cooling AQS HWSP Cozinha Kitchen Iluminação + aplicações Lighting + applications Outros Other
Figure 7.11 - Determination of the tendency associated with the residential consumption data
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Figure 7.11 Legend:
Portuguese: English: Mtep Mtoe Ano Year
If the tendencies of the last four years remain constant, residential consumption could be
reduced by between 30 to 40 % by 2025.
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8 Mapping of demand, including existing and projected infrastructures
According to Annex VIII of the directive, the exhaustive evaluation of the national heating and cooling
potential should include a map of the national territory that identifies the following, without ignoring
the protection of potentially sensitive data:
i. heating and cooling demand points, including:
● municipalities and conurbations with a plot ratio of at least 0.3;
● industrial zones with a total annual heating and cooling consumption of more than 20
GWh.
ii. existing and planned district heating and cooling infrastructures;
iii. potential heating and cooling supply points, including:
● electricity generation installations with a total annual electricity production of more than 20 GWh;
● waste incineration plants;
● existing and planned cogeneration installations using technologies referred to in Part II of
Annex I, and district heating installations;
As previously mentioned in chapter 3, according to the official data made available for the evaluation
of the demand and of the energy consumption (including heating and cooling) in the sectors of
agriculture and fisheries, industry and services, the mapping can only be made in respect of
municipalities. With the data available, where the consumption by economic activity code is only
processed at municipal level, it is impossible to locate that consumption more accurately.
In the second bullet point of point (i), the term industrial zone is used, a concept that has been
changing over the last 20 to 30 years. However, a large number of industrial facilities, especially older
ones, are installed outside the so-called industrial zones, being dispersed inside all 307 municipalities
in Continental Portugal, the Azores and Madeira. As such, and since the degree of precision of the
data supplied is at the municipal scale, consumption and demand will be processed at this same
scale. In the mapping, the boundaries used will be the geographic boundaries of the municipalities.
At a first stage, a database containing all the data supplied was created, namely the consumption by
energy source, economic activity and municipality; the database was then used to break down the
various data needed for the work.
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8.1 Map of existing infrastructures
8.1.1 Map of active thermal power plants in Portugal
The map in Figure 8.1 shows in black the municipalities that had active heat and power stations in
Portugal with a production of more than 20 GWh in 2014; there are 17 in Continental Portugal, 5 in
the Azores and 3 in Madeira, totalling 25 heat and power stations. Incineration plants are
represented by a yellow dot; there are two in Portugal in the municipalities of Loures and Maia, and
one in Madeira in the municipality of Santa Cruz, totalling 3 incinerators nationally.
Figure 8.1 - Location of heat and power stations with a consumption of more than 20 GWh and of incineration plants (Source: DGEG 2014)
Figure 8.1 Legend:
Portuguese: English: Arquipélago dos Açores Archipelago of the Azores Arquipélago da Madeira Archipelago of Madeira Localização das centrais termoelétricas com consumos superiores a 20GWh e das centrais incineradores (RSU)
Location of heat and power stations with a consumption of more than 20 GWh and of incineration plants
Sem centrais termoelétricas No heat and power stations Com centrais termoelétricas With heat and power stations Central incineradora Incinerator
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8.1.2 Map of active cogeneration producers in Portugal
In this map, municipalities in blue have active cogeneration producers in Portugal. There is a total of
132 cogeneration producers distributed by 61 municipalities, in the industry (74 %), services (26 %)
and agriculture (1 %) sectors. This split can be better seen in Figure 10.3.
Figure 8.2 - Municipalities with active cogeneration producers (Source: DGEG 2014)
Figure 8.2 Legend:
Portuguese: English: Arquipélago dos Açores Archipelago of the Azores Arquipélago da Madeira Archipelago of Madeira Municípios com cogeradores ativos Municipalities with active cogenerators Sem cogeradores Without cogenerators Com cogeradores With cogenerators
8.1.3 Map of projected cogeneration plants
There is no information on installations of this nature being projected or built. This is probably
associated with the fact that the incentives for cogeneration have been reduced. This is also shown
by the reduction in the number of active cogeneration units in Portugal.
8.2 Map of the agriculture and fisheries sector
Figures 8.3 and 8.4 show the total consumption and consumption of thermal energy, respectively, in
the agriculture and fisheries sector by municipality. As previously mentioned in chapter 4, the
agriculture sector depends on factors such as the climate and soil conditions, so that it can be seen in
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Figure 8.3 that the greatest number of municipalities with consumption of more than 20 GWh are
found in the centre and southern regions of the country, where the variations of temperature are not
so extreme throughout the year. The regions of Estremadura, Ribatejo and Alentejo present ideal
conditions for agriculture, both in terms of the climate and of the quality and quantity of soil. The
Azores has the highest level of consumption nationally in this sector, which is associated with the
production of milk and dairy products, as well as beef and veal. The municipality of Matosinhos has
the highest level of consumption in Continental Portugal, which is connected with its fishing
activities.
Figure 8.3 - Consumption by municipality in the agriculture and fisheries sector (Source: DGEG 2014).
Figure 8.3 Legend:
Portuguese: English: Arquipélago dos Açores Archipelago of the Azores Arquipélago da Madeira Archipelago of Madeira Consumos dos municípios no sector da agricultura e pescas (GWh)
Consumption by municipality in the agriculture and fisheries sector (GWh)
As can be seen in Figure 8.4, which relates to the consumption of thermal energy, this sector is not
very relevant for the cogeneration activity (there are only 2 cogeneration producers in this sector),
since the amounts of heat consumed are minimal; the largest proportion of consumption is
associated with the generation of cooling from electric sources. As such, there are only two
municipalities shown with a consumption of heat and cooling of more than 20 GWh.
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Figure 8.4 - Consumption by municipality in the agriculture and fisheries sector: heat and cooling (Source: DGEG 2014)
Figure 8.4 Legend:
Portuguese: English: Arquipélago dos Açores Archipelago of the Azores Arquipélago da Madeira Archipelago of Madeira Consumos dos municípios no sector da agricultura e pescas: calor e frio (GWh)
Consumption by municipality in the agriculture and fisheries sector: heat and cooling (GWh)
8.3 Map of the industrial sector
Despite the constant automation of processes in the industrial sector, this is still a sector that
generates a lot of employment, playing an important role in the economic growth of the country.
Normally, this sector tends to be located in areas with good transport and telecommunications links,
as well as areas with a high population density. As can be seen in Figure 8.5, and from comparing it to
Figures 7.7 (urban fabric areas) and 8.14 (distribution of dwellings by civil parish), the largest
concentration occurs in the coastal area of the country, where there is a higher population density
and, consequently, there are better telecommunications and transport links. In respect of access to
transportation, the coastal region also offers several maritime ports which are very important for this
sector.
The largest consumption is located in the municipalities of Sines and Matosinhos, where there are oil
refineries.
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Figure 8.5 - Consumption by municipality in the industrial sector (Source: DGEG 2014).
Figure 8.5 Legend:
Portuguese: English: Arquipélago dos Açores Archipelago of the Azores Arquipélago da Madeira Archipelago of Madeira Consumos dos municípios no sector da indústria (GWh)
Consumption by municipality in the industrial sector (GWh)
Figure 8.6 - Consumption by municipality in the industrial sector: heat and cooling (Source:
DGEG2014).
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Figure 8.5 Legend:
Portuguese: English: Arquipélago dos Açores Archipelago of the Azores Arquipélago da Madeira Archipelago of Madeira Consumos dos municípios no sector da indústria: calor e frio (GWh)
Consumption by municipality in the industrial sector: heat and cold (GWh)
The map in figure 8.6 allows us to see the concentration of heat and cooling industrial consumption
by municipality, given the distribution carried out using the ratios from Table 3.
8.4 Map of the services sector
As in the case of the industrial sector, the services sector is directly connected with population
density. As such, it can be seen that the main consumption in the services sector takes place in
municipalities with a higher urban fabric and population density, being located, once again, on the
Portuguese coastal region. The municipalities of Lisbon, Seixal, Porto and Matosinhos have the
highest consumption. In terms of districts, Lisbon has the highest consumption, followed by Porto,
Setúbal, Braga, Santarém and Aveiro. In order to create the map in Figure 8.7, the heating needs in
this sector were calculated using the ratios from Table 4.
Figure 8.7 - Consumption by municipality in the services sector (Source: DGEG 2014).
Figure 8.7 Legend:
Portuguese: English:
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Arquipélago dos Açores Archipelago of the Azores Arquipélago da Madeira Archipelago of Madeira Consumos dos municípios no sector dos serviços (GWh)
Consumption by municipality in the services sector (GWh)
Figure 8.8 - Consumption by municipality in the services sector: heat and cooling (DGEG 2014).
Figure 8.8 Legend:
Portuguese: English: Arquipélago dos Açores Archipelago of the Azores Arquipélago da Madeira Archipelago of Madeira Consumos dos municípios no sector dos serviços (GWh)
Consumption by municipality in the services sector (GWh)
8.5 Map of the residential sector
With regard to point (i) and to municipalities and conurbations, that information was collected from
the official entities responsible for maintaining it, namely the National Statistical Institute (INE) and
the Directorate-General for the Territory (DGT).
In the case of the INE, it was only possible to obtain areas and number of dwellings. It was not
possible to calculate the plot ratio, it was only possible to calculate the housing density (no. of
buildings or no. of dwellings per km2) from the 2011 censuses, but without information on the area
occupied by buildings.
The Land Use and Land Cover Map for Continental Portugal for 2007 (COS2007), which was produced
based on the visual interpretation of high resolution orthorectified aerial spatial images, was
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obtained from the DGT. Through the COS2007 it was possible to identify areas marked as
conurbations and compare them with the Official Administrative Map of Portugal. However, the
definition of conurbation does not allow us to determine with precision the 'plot ratio' as defined in
the directive, which should correspond to the ratio of the building floor area to the land area in a
given territory. The areas identified as conurbations correspond to all the areas where the soil has
been sealed, including streets and also small gardens connected to dwelling houses. As such, there is
no exact correspondence to 'building floor area' as defined in the directive. Even then, it appears to
be the closest definition, being the conurbations the conjunction of areas defined as continuous
urban fabric and discontinuous urban fabric, defined as per Figure 8.8.
Figure 8.8 - Definition of conurbations in COS2007 (Source: COS 2007).
Figure 8.8 Legend:
Portuguese: English: Cobertura Coverage 3 ou + andares 3 or more floors Tecido urbano contínuo predominantemente vertical
Mainly vertical continuous urban fabric
Tecido urbano contínuo predominantemente horizontal
Mainly horizontal continuous urban fabric
Tecido urbano descontínuo Discontinuous urban fabric Tecido urbano descontínuo esparso Sparse discontinuous urban fabric
The total conurbations area is shown in Figure 7.6, where it is possible to see the relevance of the
metropolitan areas of Lisbon and Porto and the concentration in the coastal region between them.
However, the simple representation of conurbations does not allow us to identify the potential in
terms of application of micro-cogeneration, or of the supply by district heating and cooling networks,
without first understanding the consumption levels of those areas using as reference the low level of
consumption for heating in Portugal and the short duration of the heating season.
In order to understand the heating and cooling needs of each region, it would be necessary to obtain
statistics on consumption distributed geographically. However, there is no information containing
the sources of energy with a sufficiently detailed level of distribution, namely in relation to biomass
consumption, which has a weight of 30 % of the global consumption and which will have different
levels of use, which is bound to be higher in rural places outside conurbations.
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Similarly, it is not possible to determine exactly the distribution of consumption by final use, being
necessary to make an estimate based on a few known statistics of average distribution, based on
national consumption surveys (INE/DGEG 2011) or based on questions included in the censuses.
As mentioned in Chapter 3, four hypotheses were therefore formulated in order to estimate
consumption at the smallest possible administrative level (the civil parish), with the ultimate
objective of obtaining values for the consumption of space heating, water heating and cooling:
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i. The simple application of the average consumption by dwelling to the distribution of
dwellings of usual residence by civil parish, which were obtained from the censuses, based
on the INE's estimates for 2014.
ii. Using the values for consumption or sales by council area for domestic use for all energy
sources (with the exception of biomass), estimating the distribution of that consumption by
the civil parishes in proportion to the number of occupied dwelling houses per civil parish.
iii. Distributing the estimate of the total consumption of each source of energy for space heating
by the civil parishes, proportionally to the number of dwelling houses with a corresponding
main heating system in each civil parish.
iv. Using the statistics of dwellings with air conditioning to estimate the consumption by civil
parish for cooling, distributing the total consumption for space cooling proportionally to the
number of dwellings with air conditioning in each civil parish.
The results of hypotheses (i) and (ii) relating to the distribution of total consumption are shown in
Figures 8.9 and 8.10, being possible to see that hypothesis (i), which uses simply the distribution of
dwellings in Portugal, corresponds to a very reasonable representation of the distribution of global
consumption of the residential sector, with only some loss of meaning in some regions in the interior
of the country in the most approximate distribution.
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Figure 8.9 - Distribution of dwellings by civil parish.
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Figure 8.9 Legend:
Portuguese: English: Legenda Legend N° alojamentos No. of dwellings N° alojamentos entre 500 e 1000 No. of dwellings between 500 and 1 000 N° alojamentos entre 1000 e 1500 No. of dwellings between 1 000 and 1 500 N° alojamentos entre 1500 e 2000 No. of dwellings between 1 500 and 2 000 N° alojamentos entre 2000 e 2500 No. of dwellings between 2 000 and 2 500 N° alojamentos superior a 2500 No. of dwellings higher than 2 500
Figure 8.10 - Distribution of total annual consumption in the residential sector by civil parish
using real consumption statistics, with an estimated distribution of the consumption of biomass according to hypothesis (ii).
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Figure 8.10 Legend:
Portuguese: English: Legenda Legend Consumo total < 500 tep Total consumption < 500 toe Consumo total entre 500 e 1000 tep Total consumption between 500 and 1 000 toe Consumo total entre 1000 e 1500 tep Total consumption between 1 000 and 1 500 toe Consumo total entre 1500 e 2000 tep Total consumption between 1 500 and 2 000 toe Consumo total entre 2000 e 2500 tep Total consumption between 2 000 and 2 500 toe Consumo total superior a 2500 tep Total consumption higher than 2 500 toe
The representation of hypothesis (ii), which corresponds to a distribution of heating consumption
based on the statistics relating to the types of heating, resulted in the map in Figure 8.11, which is
very similar to the previous maps despite the significant differences in the climate, clearly
demonstrating that the concentration of population on the coastal areas clearly compensates a
greater need of heat for space heating in the localities in the interior.
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Figure 8.11 - Distribution of the annual heating consumption according to hypothesis (iii)
Figure 8.10 Legend:
Portuguese: English: Legenda Legend Consumo total < 100 tep Total consumption < 100 toe Consumo total entre 100 e 200 tep Total consumption between 100 and 200 toe Consumo total entre 200 e 300 tep Total consumption between 200 and 300 toe Consumo total entre 300 e 400 tep Total consumption between 300 and 400 toe Consumo total entre 400 e 500 tep Total consumption between 400 and 500 toe Consumo total superior a 500 tep Total consumption higher than 500 toe
The distribution of the total consumption by km2 of area of the civil parishes, according to hypothesis
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(ii), reveals even more the importance of the conurbations, showing clearly that there is sparse
consumption in most of the national territory, as shown in Figure 8.12. In reality, the total
consumption at civil parish level is under 500 toe/km2 in almost all of the country, with the almost
exclusive exception of Lisbon and Porto and of a few other parishes, with Braga standing out. In
relation to heating, the situation is even clearer, with most of the territory consuming less than 100
toe/km2, with the exception of a few civil parishes, mostly in Lisbon and Porto, with consumptions
between 100 and 200 toe/km2 (Figure 8.12).
Figure 8.12 - Estimate of the density of the annual consumption by civil parish in toe/km2,
based on approach (ii).
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Figure 8.12 Legend:
Portuguese: English: Legenda Legend Consumo inferior a 500 tep/ km2 Consumption of less than 500 toe/ km2 Consumo entre 500 e 1 000 tep/ km2 Consumption between 500 and 1 000 toe/ km2 Consumo entre 1 000 e 1 500 tep/ km2 Consumption between 1 000 and 1 500 toe/ km2 Consumo superior a 1 500 tep/ km2 Consumption higher than 1 500 toe/ km2
It should be noted that this estimate has a drawback as it does not allow the evaluation of the
density in consumption in localities smaller than a civil parish. However, and considering that the civil
parishes in cities are almost always exclusively urban, the almost non-existence of civil parishes with
meaningful densities outside the large conurbations of Lisbon and Porto allows us to set aside that
uncertainly with some confidence.
Figure 8.13 - Estimate of the density of the annual consumption by civil parish in toe/km2, based on approach (iii).
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Figure 8.13 Legend:
Portuguese: English: Legenda Legend Consumo inferior a 100 tep/ km2 Consumption of less than 100 toe/ km2 Consumo entre 100 e 200 tep/ km2 Consumption between 100 and 200 toe/ km2 Consumo entre 200 e 300 tep/ km2 Consumption between 200 and 300 toe/ km2 Consumo superior a 300 tep/ km2 Consumption higher than 300 toe/ km2
Consumption for cooling tends to still be very small, as had already been mentioned in the
distribution of the global consumption for the residential sector. Its distribution, based on the
statistics of dwellings with air conditioning, results in the spatial distribution estimate visible in Figure
8.14. The high proportion of dwellings with air conditioning in the civil parish of Castelo Branco,
council area of Castelo Branco, should be highlighted; in the map it appears to indicate a meaning
greater than it actually is due to the geographic size of the civil parish. In reality, the resulting
consumption density is lower than 10 toe/km2 in almost all of Portugal, with the exception of some
civil parishes in Lisbon.
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Figure 8.14 - Distribution of consumption for cooling according to dwellings with air-conditioning
Figure 8.14 Legend:
Portuguese: English: Legenda Legend Consumo total < 50 tep Total consumption < 50 toe Consumo total entre 50 e 100 tep Total consumption between 50 and 100 toe Consumo total entre 100 e 150 tep Total consumption between 100 and 150 toe Consumo total superior a 150 tep Total consumption higher than 150 toe
In relation to the islands, in Madeira there is a meaningful total level of consumption on the south
coast, especially in Funchal, which actually corresponds to the only area with
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consumption slightly higher than 100 toe/km2, as shown in Figure 8.156. However, in relation to the
Azores, only some areas in Ponta Delgada in the S. Miguel Island and Angra do Heroísmo in the
Terceira Island show a density higher than 100 toe/km2 (Figure 8.16).
a) Total consumption
b) Density of consumption
Figure 8.15 - Annual energy consumption in the residential sector in Madeira (Source: DGEG)
Figure 8.15 Legend:
Portuguese: English: Legenda Legend Consumo total < 500 tep Total consumption < 500 toe
6 Note: The representation of consumption by parish in the map appears to allocate consumption to the Desertas Islands, because they are administratively associated with the civil parish of Sta Cruz, council area of Sta Cruz. In reality, only one of the Desertas Islands has inhabitants during the summer, so that consumption is nil, or negligible.
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Consumo total entre 500 e 1 000 tep Total consumption between 500 and 1 000 toe Consumo total entre 1 000 e 1 500 tep
Total consumption between 1 000 and 1 500 toe
Consumo total superior a 1 500 e 2 000 tep
Total consumption between 1 500 and 2 000 toe
Consumo total superior a 2 000 e 2 500 tep
Total consumption between 2 000 and 2 500 toe
Consumo total superior a 2 500 tep Total consumption higher than 2 500 toe Consumo inferior a 500 tep/km2 Consumption lower than 500 toe/km2 Consumo entre 500 e 1 000 tep/km2 Consumption between 500 and 1 000 toe/km2 Consumo entre 1 000 e 1 500 tep/km2 Consumption between 1 000 and 1 500 toe/km2 Consumo superior a 1 500 tep/km2 Consumption higher than 1 500 toe/km2
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a) Central Group
b) Eastern Group
Figure 8.16 - Density of consumption in the Azores (Source: DGEG)
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Figure 8.16 Legend:
Portuguese: English: Consumo inferior a 500 tep/km2 Consumption lower than 500 toe/km2 Consumo entre 500 e 1 000 tep/km2 Consumption between 500 and 1 000 toe/km2 Consumo entre 1 000 e 1 500 tep/km2 Consumption between 1 000 and 1 500 toe/km2 Consumo superior a 1 500 tep/km2 Consumption higher than 1 500 toe/km2
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9 Identification of the high-efficiency cogeneration and of the potential
created since the previous study
Cogeneration was used for the first time in Portugal in the 1940s in the industrial sector, with the
installation of backpressure turbines. Until 1990, there was a reduced rate of penetration of
cogeneration in the market, but in the 1990s around 530 MWe were installed in several industry sub-
sectors.
The definition of the conditions for the connection of the cogeneration power plants with the
national electricity grid, and also the remuneration principles for the sale of surplus energy were
created in 1988, with the aim by the Portuguese Government of promoting the autoproduction of
electricity. By the end of 2014, the installed output was around 1759 MWe, with an overall efficiency
of 79 %.
In 1997, the introduction of NG in Portugal brought new possibilities and a new boost for
cogeneration. New types of projects were launched using Otto cycle engines and gas turbines and old
facilities were also improved so as to increase their output and to reduce pollutant emissions. In the
last 10 years most of the diesel engines have been replaced or converted to natural gas.
9.1 Evolution of the number of cogeneration plants during the 2008-2014 period
The previous study attempted to draw a picture of the situation in 2008 and projected the technical
and economic potential of high-efficiency cogeneration in Portugal until 2020.
The processed data which follows is based on the information provided by the DGEG and
corresponds to the period between 2008 and 2014. Figure 9.1 shows the number of cogeneration
plants between 2008 and 2014, their state (working or stopped), as well as the joint total. A trend
line was inserted in Figure 9.1 corresponding to working plants, which shows the evolution of this
type of facility.
The analysis of Figure 9.1 shows that the total number of working cogeneration plants grew until
2011 and has been decreasing since then until 2014. The number of stopped plants has been growing
since 2010, reaching its peak in 2013; it has been decreasing since then at a slower rate.
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1 1
No.
of c
ogen
erat
ion
plan
ts
200
Evolution of the number of cogeneration producers in Portugal
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Working 146 151 150 158 157 1 4 1 1 3 2
Stopped 2 0 1 5 7 21 11
Total 148 151 151 163 164 1 6 2 1 4 3
Working Stopped Total Trend
Figure 9.1 - Number of cogeneration plants according to the NUT I division (Source: DGEG)
The distribution of cogeneration plants by Continental Portugal, Madeira and the Azores is shown in
Figure 9.2. This figure shows that cogeneration is mainly installed in Continental Portugal and it is
distributed throughout the whole country, as has already been shown in previous maps.
140
Working cogeneration plants 130
120
100
80
60
40
20
0 Continental Portugal Azores
Madeira
Figure 9.2 - Location of cogeneration plants in 2014, according to the NUT I division (Source: DGEG 2014)
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Figure 9.3 shows a breakdown expressed as a percentage of the active cogeneration producers in
2014 by sector of activity. Cogeneration producers were mapped according to their sector of activity,
but in municipalities where there are various cogeneration producers working both in the industry
and in services, they were included in a new category called 'Industry and Services'.
Figure 9.3 - Geographic distribution of active cogeneration producers (Source: DGEG 2014)
Figure 9.3 Legend:
Portuguese: English: Arquipélago dos Açores Archipelago of the Azores Arquipélago da Madeira Archipelago of Madeira Distribuição geográfica dos cogeradores por setor de atividade
Geographic distribution of cogenerators by sector of activity
Sem cogeradores Without cogenerators Setor Indústria Industrial sector Setor dos Serviços Services sector Setor da Agricultura e Pescas Agriculture and fisheries sector Indústria e Serviços Industry and services
Figure 9.4 shows a breakdown of the new cogeneration plants by activity sector for the 2008-2014
period.
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Figure 9.4 - Breakdown (percentage of the number of facilities) of the new cogeneration plants by sector of activity for the 2008-2014 period (Source: DGEG)
Figure 9.4 Legend:
Portuguese: English: Indústria e Agricultura Industry and agriculture Edifícios de Serviços Buildings for services
Figure 9.5 shows a breakdown of the number (percentage of the number of facilities) of existing
cogeneration plants by sector of activity in 2014.
Figure 9.5 - Breakdown of the number of cogeneration plants by sector of activity (Source: DGEG 2014).
Figure 9.5 Legend:
Portuguese: English: Indústria e Agricultura Industry and agriculture Edifícios de Serviços Buildings for services
The analysis of these figures (Figure 9.3 and Figure 9.5) leads us to the conclusion that between 2008
and 2014 the number of cogeneration plants increased in relative terms in the sector of 'Buildings for
Services'. This conclusion is reinforced by the plants that were shut down (40 in 'Industry and
Agriculture' versus 4 in 'Buildings for Services') and by the ones that started operating (27 in 'Industry
and Agriculture' versus 9 in 'Buildings for Services'). It should be mentioned that out of these nine
cogeneration plants that started operating in the sector of 'Buildings for Services', eight correspond
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to healthcare facilities with inpatient services (hospitals).
In 2008, out of a total of 148 cogeneration plants, there were 133 plants in 'Industry and Agriculture'
and 15 in 'Buildings for Services'; in 2014 the distribution was 123 cogeneration plants in 'Industry
and Agriculture' and 20 in 'Buildings for Services', totalling 143 cogeneration plants. When expressed
as a percentage, the number of cogeneration plants in 'Industry and Agriculture' decreased by about
8 %, and it increased by about 33 % in 'Buildings for Services'.
Given the current legislation, the new cogeneration plants that started functioning between 2008-
2014 were considered to be of high-efficiency, therefore partially fulfilling the potential identified in
2008. These new cogeneration plants are distributed throughout the whole of Continental Portugal
(although mostly in the north and south, and in a smaller number in the centre of the country). Most
of the cogeneration plants that stopped working were mainly located in the north. It should be
mentioned that in 2014 alone 17 cogeneration plants shut down, 16 of which in the 'Industry and
Agriculture' sector.
9.2 Evolution of the electric capacity of the cogeneration plants during the 2008-2014 period
Figure 9.1 shows the evolution of the electricity capacity of cogeneration plants between 2008 and
2014. It should be noted that the reduction in the installed capacity is the result of the closing down
of some of the older plants (due to reaching the end of their working life), namely some plants
powered by fuel oil, which are now significantly less viable.
1 800
1 400
1 399.3
1 595
1 761 1 800 1 759
1 200
1 000
800
600
400
200
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Figure 9.6 - Evolution of the electricity capacity in MW of the cogeneration plants between 2008 and 2014 (Source: DGEG 2014)
Figures 9.7 and 9.8 show distributions expressed as percentages for the two large sectors
analysed: 'Industry and Agriculture' and 'Buildings for Services'.
1 906 1 916
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Figure 9.7 - Breakdown of the electricity output of the cogeneration plants by sector of activity (Source: DGEG 2008).
Figure 9.7 Legend:
Portuguese: English: Indústria e Agricultura Industry and agriculture Edifícios de Serviços Buildings for services
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Figure 9.8 - Breakdown of the electricity output of the cogeneration plants that shut down by sector of activity for the 2008-2014 period (Source: DGEG).
Figure 9.9 - Breakdown of the electricity output of the new cogeneration plants by sector of activity for the 2008-2014 period (Source: DGEG).
Figure 9.10 - Breakdown of the electricity output of the cogeneration plants by sector of activity in 2014 (Source: DGEG).
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Figure 9.8, 9.9 and 9.10 Legend:
Portuguese: English: Indústria e Agricultura Industry and agriculture Edifícios de Serviços Buildings for services
Table 6 shows the installed capacities (electrical and thermal) of the cogeneration plants in each of
the sectors of activity for the 2008-2014 period.
Table 5 - Electrical and thermal capacities of the cogeneration plants analysed for the 2008-2014
period (Source: DGEG)
Year
Installed Capacity (MW)
Thermal Input (MW)
Sector
Installed Capacity (MW)
Thermal Input (MW)
2008 1 399 5 462.0 Industry and Agriculture 1 355 5 413.1 Buildings for Services 45 48.8
Shut down 226 583 Industry and Agriculture 217 576.3 Buildings for Services 12 6.7
New 261 294.9 Industry and Agriculture 233.8 277.5 Buildings for Services 27.2 17.4
2014 1 759 4 631 Industry and Agriculture 1 726 4 589 Buildings for Services 33 42.1
The analysis of Figures 9.7 to 9.10 and of Table 6 allows us to conclude that between 2008 and 2014
the installed electrical capacity of the cogeneration plants in the sector 'Industry and Agriculture'
increased (which means that their relative weight increased) and it decreased in the 'Buildings for
Services' sector. This conclusion is reinforced by the capacity of the plants that shut down and by the
capacity of the new plants that came into operation. Globally, the cogeneration installed electrical
capacity increased between 2008 and 2014. In 2008 there were 1399 MWe installed in cogeneration
plants; in 2014 there was approximately an additional 360 MWe installed (corresponding to an
increase of around 25.7 %). When expressed as a percentage, the installed electrical capacity of the
cogeneration plants in 'Industry and Agriculture' increased by about 27.4 %, and it decreased by
about 26 % in 'Buildings for Services'. Comparing 2008 and 2014 globally, there was an increase in
the 'Industry and Agriculture' percentage of 2 % in relation to the initial figure. In absolute terms,
there was a large increase in the installed electrical capacity in 2014 when compared to 2008, as a
result of improvements made to several plants.
As expected, the percentages in terms of the number of cogeneration plants in the two large sectors
studied are now very different from the percentages expressed in the capacity of those same plants;
especially because the plants from the 'Buildings for Services' sector are normally much smaller than
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those built in the 'Industry and Agriculture' sector.
The economic potential identified in the previous report (corresponding to 60 % of the technical
potential identified) was described in Table 6. Comparing these values with the values for the
currently installed cogeneration electrical capacity, we can see that we are still short of realising the
high-efficiency cogeneration potential. As an example, we just have to compare the value (even in
the pessimistic scenario) of the installed electrical capacity in cogeneration plants mentioned in Table
7 (1 862 MWe), with the value from Table 6 - 1 759 MWe (current data from the DGEG).
Table 6 - Economic potential of high-efficiency cogeneration in 2010, 2015 and 2020, according to the DGEG (2010)
Year Optimistic scenario (MWe)
Pessimistic scenario (MWe)
2010 1 750 1 697 2015 2 065 1 862 2020 2 320 1 979
A possible explanation for the potential for high-efficiency cogeneration previously identified to have
fallen well short of expectations may be the economic crisis that the country went through, mainly
after 2010, which resulted in a shortfall in investment in this area, as well as in the reduction of
incentives from 2011 onwards.
9.3 District heating and cooling, and trigeneration
In Portugal, according to data supplied by the DGEG, out of 185 cogeneration facilities analysed
during the 2008-2015 period (148 existing in 2008 and 37 new facilities that started operating
between 2008 and 2015), it was possible to identify four cogeneration systems that corresponded to
heat and cooling distribution networks
The main plant identified supplies the area of Parque das Nações in Lisbon. In addition to residential
buildings, this network supplies services buildings (hotels and offices, amongst other). This plant has
an installed electrical capacity of around 5 MWe. Another central in Maia generates cooling and
heating but within an internal network in the same building (this facility was classified under 'Industry
and Agriculture', according to the associated CAE). There are two other plants (one in Oeiras and one
in Madeira) which supply thermal products (vapour, hot and cold water) to business/industrial parks.
These two have also been classified as belonging to the 'Industry and Agriculture' sector, according to
the associated CAE.
The previously mentioned cogeneration systems correspond effectively to trigeneration (combined
production of heat, cooling by absorption and electricity). In addition to these trigeneration systems,
two other of these systems were identified in buildings (one in Loures and another one in Oeiras),
although one of them (the one in Loures) had been classified as 'Industry and Agriculture', since the
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CAE associated to that facility resulted in that classification. However, it is known that the purpose of
this cogeneration system (associated to an absorption chiller) is to supply space heating and cooling
to an office building (services).
The reference (Telmo Rocha, 2016) also allowed us to determine that there are a further three
trigeneration systems in buildings in Portugal. According to this source, they are all installed in
hospitals.
9.4 Identification of the technical potential of high-efficiency cogeneration in
Portugal
9.4.1 Definitions and assumptions - potential for cogeneration and for the consumption of
thermal energy
The need to ensure a minimal saving of primary energy to define a cogeneration unit as high-efficient
requires a minimal use of the heat generated by the unit. As such, the sizing of the units should be
made based on the thermal needs that can be fully or partially fulfilled by the heat reused from the
unit's residual heat. It was therefore decided that it was essential to use the consumptions of thermal
energy as reference for determining the cogeneration technical potential, namely the consumptions
by sector included in the national energy balances, excluding consumption of combustible fuel
specifically for the transportation sector and oil products not for energy.
The consumptions for each sector will result in a potential per sector based on percentages that can
be replaced, taking into account the specific characteristics of the sector, such as the use of energy
for cooking or other purposes that cannot be supplied directly by a thermal energy source such as
hot water or vapour.
The consumption of energy in the services sector in Portugal is dominated by electricity (73 % of the
total), with the consumption of thermal energy corresponding only to 19 %, of which part will consist
of uses that cannot be replaced, such as the use for cooking. There are several reasons for this
discrepancy. On the one hand, the relatively mild winter of the regions where most of the population
resides and where most services buildings are concentrated does not result in substantial heating
consumption needs. On the other hand, services buildings normally have a very significant number of
equipment that contributes in itself with significant internal gains. These two factors also contribute
to the significant use electric air-conditioning equipment, even for the generation of heating, both
due to the lack of feasibility of alternative systems, and to the reduced number of hours during which
heating is required, as well as the use of high-efficiency equipment that is also used for the
generation of cooling (reversible air-conditioning equipment). Finally, the explanations already
provided for the reduced need for heating increase the need for cooling in these buildings, therefore
contributing to increase the consumption of electricity, which is in itself already high due to the many
pieces of electrical equipment that currently dominate these spaces.
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In that sense, the use of classic cogeneration systems (meaning systems for the exclusive generation
of heat and electricity) has limited viability, except for cases where a significant amount of heating is
used throughout the year, which is the case in swimming pools and hospitals, although in the former
the potential advantage of generating heat from solar energy should be considered.
As an alternative, the generation of cooling based on the residual heat of the electric power
generation unit could be a solution to this problem, making the cogeneration units viable by ensuring
the use of heat for a sufficient amount of time for the savings created to justify the investment.
However, it is necessary to compare that possibility with the alternative of simply using electricity in
good equipment for the generation of cold by compression, given the large existing differences in
performance coefficients, otherwise it is not guaranteed that the intended savings in primary energy
that justify any type of support for these systems will occur.
The generation of cold from residual heat can use one of two base systems: absorption and
adsorption. In both cases, the best systems at present have different varieties with different
requirements in terms of the input thermal fluids, with coefficients of performance (output cooling
energy over input thermal energy) of 0.71 for simple effect chillers that only require input water and
1.37 for double effect equipment that require input steam. For that reason, the latter type of
equipment is only adequate for the direct burn of combustible fuel or to be coupled with turbines; it
is not indicated for coupling with the small combustion engines of the cogeneration systems normally
used in buildings. In any case, existing absorption and adsorption chillers available on the market are
units of significant size and that carry high costs; the double effect chillers are normally larger
because of the larger complexity of the system.
On the other hand, the best cooling equipment by compression have a COP of 5.5 for capacities
under 500 kWt, 7 for capacities between 500 kWt and 1 000 kWt, and 7.5 for capacities above 1 000
kWt (thermal cooling input).
Based on the above values and on the reference values in the directive, assuming that the
cogeneration is fuelled by natural gas and LV connections (small buildings) or MV connections (large
buildings), it was possible to determine that in the first case (which uses a combustion engine and
simple effect chillers) the generation of primary energy savings will imply the use of the effective
heat (as heating or HWSP) equivalent to 23 % of the electric energy generated or to 25 % of the
cooling energy generated. In the second case, even assuming the possibility of using a turbine and a
double effect chiller, the comparison with the best large chillers requires the use of heating
equivalent to 38 % of the electricity generated, and the same 25 % of cooling energy. In either
option, the use of the system only for the generation of electricity and cooling corresponds to an
increase in the consumption of primary energy when compared to separate production. These results
get worse if there is waste of the heat generated, which means that there must be great care in
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selecting the correct size of unit, which must be done according to consumption and not to situations
of peak demand.
Faced with these conclusions, the applications that are most likely to enable cogeneration systems in
the services sector must lie in the healthcare sub-sector, since hospitals have constant requirements
of heat and cooling. Other applications, such as in the hotel trade or in office buildings, will be
seriously conditioned by the very short length of the heating season. In addition, as they have a very
small base consumption of heating, or a small period of use resulting from working schedules, that
will have a strong impact on the return on investment.
It should be noted that the reference values of the directive have been used in this analysis for
cogeneration using natural gas adjusted for losses relating to the type of interconnecting voltage,
which assume that the avoided power generation was from a combined cycle plant, therefore
assuming that the electricity produced in cogeneration will be included in the predictable and
controllable share of the order. The consideration of a different generation mix (with the integration
of renewable energies, which is the aim of the EU) would make cogeneration in the services sector
less attractive. The complete decarbonisation in the buildings sector, which is the objective of the EU
for the following decades, points to an increasing use of high-efficiency electric equipment using
electricity from renewable sources.
The potential for cogeneration in the residential sector results from the profiling of the consumption
needs, which were analysed in chapter 7. According to the mapping carried out, it was verified that
the heat and cooling needs for the residential sector represent a very small value, reaching a
maximum of 300 toe/km2, or 3.49 kWh/m2, a value which is significantly lower than the 130 kWh/m2
threshold included in the directive supporting documentation as the minimum value to justify the
consideration of district heating networks. Although the possibility of making local units viable is not
excluded at the outset, if avoiding the costs with infrastructure, the costs per unit rise considerably
with the reduction of the installed capacity. There is also a marked improvement of the housing
thermal envelope, which reduces even more the heating needs. Therefore, and considering the
reduced period for the use of heating given the short duration of the heating season, it is unlikely
that cogeneration will be viable in this sector.
9.4.2 Distribution of the consumption of thermal energy in the reference year by activity
sector
We can obtain values for the consumption of thermal energy by sector of activity based on the 2014
(DGEG) energy balance. In Table 9 we can see the total consumption of thermal energy and the
consumption of thermal energy after taking out road fuels and oil products not for energy
(highlighted column). For information, we have also shown consumption of thermal energy already in
the form of heating from cogeneration units, as well as the total consumption of electricity; we can
see there is a clear importance of cogeneration in the sectors of paper and pulp, food and drink,
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textiles, wood and wooden articles, chemicals and plastics and rubber. We can also see that there is
an already significant weight in the services sector.
In relation to this last sector, we can make some additional discrimination based on consumption
statistics supplied by the DGEG. Table 10 shows some of the services sub-sectors with greatest
potential for application, both in terms of consumption of thermal energy, but also in terms of the
relevance they already have in cogeneration. The line 'Other (various)' corresponds to the sum of the
consumption of various sub-sectors without particular characteristics to make them obvious targets
for cogeneration. The line 'Adjustments' corresponds to differences between the total and the
corresponding estimate from the energy balance, justified as follows:
• Two of the cogeneration units operating in the services sector are classified in the list provided by the DGEG with CAE 35 - Electricity, gas, vapour, hot and cold water and cold air, without it being clear to which specific sectors their production is allocated. On the other hand, some of the remaining cogeneration units are also possibly officially registered under CAE 35, so that the calculation of the consumption of combustible fuels, namely natural gas, contains discrepancies and results in an error of 7.4 %.
• The total consumption shown in the energy balance includes an estimate of the contribution of renewable energies without electricity which is not possible to break down by sector. In any case, at the outset it is not desirable that the consumption met by renewable energies is replaced, so that the values indicated as 'non-road fuels + heat' will correspond to the portion of consumption that can be fulfilled with heating from cogeneration.
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Table 7 - Energy consumption by sector in toe - 2014 (Source: DGEG)
Total of combustible
fuels
Heat
Thermal without
road fuels
Electricity
Total
AGRICULTURE AND FISHERIES
355 760 1 203 19 965 70 912 427 875
Agriculture 269 851 1 203 16 323 67 118 338 172
Fisheries 85 909 3 642 3 794 89 703
MINING AND QUARRYING 36 148 22 800 28 503 52 697 111 645 MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES 1 931 074 1 171 323 2 973 976 1 258 872 4 361 269
Food, drinks and tobacco 232 466 53 170 259 323 159 503 445 139
Textiles 126 081 38 391 163 273 90 512 254 984 Paper and paper products 155 307 945 266 1 089 575 265 666 1 366 239 Chemicals and plastics 158 936 91 416 228 434 182 020 432 372 Ceramics 221 094 15 806 234 674 31 495 268 395 Glass and glass products 199 259 0 197 882 43 486 242 745 Cement and Lime 570 214 968 555 323 73 899 645 081 Metallurgy 26 252 0 25 226 20 142 46 394 Ironwork industry 56 321 0 54 540 109 554 165 875 Clothing, footwear and leather goods 19 324 2 197 19 486 24 104 45 625
Wood and wooden articles 45 578 11 222 49 091 43 151 99 951
Rubber 7 029 10 194 14 783 17 948 35 171 Electrical and mechanical engineering
77 126 762 69 656 165 971 243 859
Other manufacturing industries 36 087 1 931 12 710 31 421 69 439
CONSTRUCTION AND PUBLIC WORKS 232 942 30 894 27 343 260 285
DOMESTIC SECTOR 1 528 845 1 471 348 1 024 064 2 552 909 SERVICES 483 298 31 081 423 037 1 426 826 1 941 205
In relation to the services sector (Table 8), the importance of the healthcare sector is evident, since
the contribution of the cogeneration units already installed in hospitals is already visible. It is also
clear that there is no identifiable cogeneration units in the hotel trade sector, traditionally pointed
out as a sector with potential, which seems to be in line with the justifications already provided for
the limited viability of this sector in Portugal. There are also no cogeneration units identified in the
public administration services. The remaining units identified include the supply of sports centres,
swimming pools, the unit that supplies the only existing district heating and cooling network, units
installed in large shopping centres and units installed in large office buildings, including in the latter
the use of residual heat for the generation of cold by absorption chillers.
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Table 8 - Energy consumption in the services sector - 2014 (Source: DGEG)
Economic activity
Heat (toe)
Non-road fuels + heat
(toe)
Electricity
(toe)
Total (toe)
Wholesale trade, except cars and motorcycles 3 387
36 562
243 367
279 929
Accommodation 0 37 101 57 294 94 395 Public administration and defence; compulsory social security
0
39 034
148 865
188 038
Education 0 16 257 28 566 4 Human health activities 10 022 61 776 38 583 100 365
Social work activities with accommodation 0 24 980 19 148 44 129 Sports activities and amusement and recreation
1 692 12 568 17 921 30 495
Other (various) 9 723 173 745 874 488 1 072 864 Adjustment 6 258 -27 677 -1 406 86 166 Total 31 081 374 346 1 426 826 1 941 205 Adjustment as % of total 20.1
-
-
4.4
9.5 Technical potential of cogeneration and its evolution in 2014-2015
In 2014, the working cogeneration units totalled 1 759 MW of electric installed capacity and
4 631 MW of thermal capacity, having generated a total of 7 484 GWh of electricity and 19 249 GWh
of thermal energy, corresponding to a T/E ratio of 2.57. The also had an overall efficiency of 79 % and
an average number of plant utilization hours of 4 349. The application of the assumptions and
reference values associated with the directive, taking into account the combustible fuels used in each
unit and the network losses due to the location's voltage level, results in expected global savings of
30 740 TJ (0.73 Mtoe) of primary energy, corresponding to 33.5 % of savings.
The current impact of cogeneration in energy consumption can be determined from the data of the
2014 energy balance, by comparing the recorded data for cogenerated heating consumption by
sector with the replaceable thermal energy consumption, and by comparing the production of
electric power in cogeneration units with the global electricity consumption (Table 11).
In the case of the services sub-sectors, it was once again necessary to use the statistical data for each
energy source and the cogeneration data, which were both supplied by the DGEG, and which
resulted in the results shown in Table 10.
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Table 9 - Weight of cogeneration in 2014 by sector of activity (Source: DGEG)
Thermal (toe) Electricity (toe)
Production
Replaceable consumption
Replaceable heat
Production
Total consumption
Production /
Consumption
AGRICULTURE AND FISHERIES 1 203 15 124 8
1 373 70 912 2 % Agriculture 1 203 11 485 10 % 1 373 67 118 2 % Fisheries 0 3 639 0
0 3 794 0 %
MINING AND QUARRYING 22 800 28 503 80 % 16 815 52 697 32 % MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES 1 171 323 2 811 963 42 % 442 395 1 258 872 35 %
Food, drinks and tobacco 53 170 234 813 23 % 25 445 159 503 16 % Textiles 38 391 161 532 24 % 44 705 90 512 49 % Paper and paper products 945 266 1 062 925 89 % 314 225 265 666 118 % Chemicals and plastics 91 416 227 840 40 % 30 151 182 020 17 % Ceramics 15 806 217 841 7
10 846 31 495 34 %
Glass and glass products 0 197 882 0
0 43 486 0 % Cement and lime 968 493 032 0
1 297 73 899 2 %
Metallurgy 0 25 222 0
0 20 142 0 % Ironwork industry 0 54 540 0
0 109 554 0 %
Clothing, footwear and leather goods
2 197 18 499 12 % 2 645 24 104 11 %
Wood and wooden articles 11 222 21 818 51 % 6 029 43 151 14 % Rubber 10 194 14 275 71 % 4 139 17 948 23 % Electrical and mechanical engineering
762 69 488 1 %
1 253 165 971 1 %
Other manufacturing industries 1 931 12 256 16 % 1 660 31 421 5 %
CONSTRUCTION AND PUBLIC WORKS 0 30 593 0 % 0 27 343 0 %
DOMESTIC SECTOR 0 669 592 0
0 1 024 064 0 % SERVICES 31 081 374 346 5
29 860 1 426 826 2 %
The data in Table 11 shows that some sectors are already very close to their technical potential,
namely in the paper and pulp sub-sectors and in the rubber sub-sector, both because of the thermal
consumption reached, but also because of the percentage of the electricity consumption covered by
production; the latter, being an indication of a net input into the network especially in the case of
paper and pulp, will certainly give rise to the existence of physical interconnection limitations which
will at least reduce the economic viability of further investments.
Although the textile sector also shows some growth potential from a thermal point of view, it can
also be limited in this respect, since the production of electricity reaches almost 50 % of its
consumption. In the services sector, the 'human health activities' sub-sector already shows a share of
replacement which is not irrelevant.
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Table 10 - Weight of cogeneration in the services sector in 2014 (Source: DGEG)
Thermal Electricity
Economic activity
% replacement
% production/ consumption
Wholesale trade, except cars and motorcycles 9.26 %
1.23 %
Accommodation 0.00 % 0.00 % Public administration and defence; compulsory social security
0.00 %
0.00 %
Education 0.00 % 0.00 % Human health activities 16.22 % 33.41 % Social work activities with accommodation 0.00 % 0.00 % Sports activities and amusement and recreation
13.46 % 9.05 %
Other (various) 5.60 % 1.08 % Total 8.30 % 2.09 %
However, it should be noted that part of the heat generated in cogeneration units in the services
sector is being used to generate cooling in absorption systems, so the calculations of replaced
thermal energy and electricity may not be precise, both because the generated heat did not replace
the generation of heat separately (with this replacement causing an over-evaluation), and because
the generation of cooling avoided a corresponding consumption in electricity, thus having an
underestimated impact. It should also be highlighted that the calculation of thermal energy in Table
10 does not include the contribution from renewable sources of energy (including biomass) due to
lack of data, which explains the differences with Table 12 in the calculation of thermal energy
replacement percentages for the whole sector.
The technical cogeneration potential for the production of heat can be estimated by applying the
maximum replacement percentages stated in section 3.1 (Klotz et al 2014) to the replaceable heating
consumption values, resulting in around 2.7 Mtoe of potentially usable heat as shown in Table 13.
The same table also shows estimates for the consumption of cooling in the industry, in the residential
sector and in services, resulting in 0.5 Mtoe of final energy, which would correspond to between 1.1
Mtoe and 2.2 Mtoe of additional heat to feed absorption chillers, therefore resulting in between 3.8
and 4.9 Mtoe of thermal production resulting from cogeneration.
Assuming the average T/E ratio and the average number of functioning hours from existing
cogeneration units in 2014 (2.57 and 4 349 h, respectively), the electric power generated and the
installed electric capacity would correspond to 12 TWh (2.8 GW) just to meet the heating needs and
between 17.3 TWh to 22 TWh (4.0 GW to 5.1 GW) to equally meet the cooling needs. However, the
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fulfilment of all this potential is not realistic, since it does not take into account the pattern of
functioning of the cogeneration units, the need for maintenance interruptions, or basic aspects such
as the minimum functioning capacity. As such, the technical potential will surely be higher than the
attainable potential, and the latter should be the one considered for any political decision. However,
the determination of this attainable potential is particularly difficulty since there is no detailed data
or basis for comparison, given the variety of approaches and of the nature of the industry and other
entities using the heating and cooling that is generated.
Therefore, only the sub-sectors of the manufacturing industry with greater cogeneration potential
were considered, both because of the amount of heating consumed, and because of the amount of
heating that can be replaced, namely:
• Food, drinks and tobacco,
• Textiles,
• Paper and paper products,
• Chemicals and plastics,
• Wood, wooden articles,
• Rubber.
Similarly, we have only considered the services sub-sectors where the use of cogeneration is already
meaningful, corresponding to around 40 % of the consumption of electricity and thermal energy
(excluding road fuels) of this sector. The remaining consumption is of around 1.8 Mtoe of potentially
usable heating and 0.25 Mtoe of consumption for cooling, to which would correspond between 2.4
Mtoe and 2.9 Mtoe of thermal production from cogeneration or, based on the same estimates, 11
TWh to 13 TWh of generation (29 % of national consumption) and 2.4 GW to 3.0 GW of installed
capacity, representing an increase in capacity of between 700 MW to 1 300 MW in relation to the
currently installed capacity, which is 1 759 MW.
The numbers that have now been obtained, although still subject to error, have a higher degree of
accuracy since they are based on sectors with a current coverage that is already reasonably
significant, and that altogether represent the largest share of potential due to the nature of their
production process/economic activity, with the assumption being made that the margin of error in
respect of the total fulfilment of the potential in these sectors is compensated by the potential of the
sectors that have not been considered.
Based on Tables 16 and 18, we can still anticipate some future evolution of this potential as a slight
negative trend, as the result of the severe reduction of consumption projected for the sub-sectors of
paper and pulp industry (-7.3 %), and textile industry (-19.4 %), which are precisely the two most
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relevant sectors in the context of cogeneration, and also a reduction in the consumption for air-
conditioning in the services sector (-10.9 %), despite a slight increase in the global consumption of
this sector (1.7 %). Therefore, the attainable potential in 2025 will be between 2.2 Mtoe and
2.7 Mtoe of thermal production from cogeneration, or between 10 TWh to 12 TWh of electricity
generation or between 2.3 GW to 2.8 GW of installed electrical capacity.
Table 11 - Calculation of the potential heating and cooling to be delivered by cogeneration units (Source: DGEG)
ENERGY BALANCE toe
OVERA
LL TOTAL
Total replaceable
thermal energy
Replacement
potential
Cooling consumption
(estimate)
2014 (provisional) toe toe (%) toe toe
FINAL CONSUMPTION 15 166 780 3 930 121 66.21 % 2 602 023 520 053
AGRICULTURE AND FISHERIES 427 875 15 124 Agriculture 338 172 11 485 100.00 % 11 485 Fisheries 89 703 3 639 MINING AND QUARRYING 111 645 28 503 MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES 4 361 269 2 811 963 174 451
Food, drinks and tobacco 445 139 234 813 100.00 % 234 813 Textiles 254 984 161 532 81.00 % 130 841
Paper and paper products 1 366 239 1 062 925 100.00 % 1 062 925
Chemicals and plastics 432 372 227 840 100.00 % 227 840 Ceramics 268 395 217 841 7.00 % 15 249 Glass and glass products 242 745 197 882 7.00 % 13 852 Cement and lime 645 081 493 032 10.00 % 49 303 Metallurgy 46 394 25 222 19.00 % 4 792 Ironwork industry 165 875 54 540 30.00 % 16 362 Clothing, footwear and leather goods
45 625 18 499 81.00 % 14 984
Wood and wooden articles 99 951 21 818 81.00 % 17 673 Rubber 35 171 14 275 100.00 % 14 275 Electrical and mechanical engineering
243 859 69 488 69.00 % 47 947
Other manufacturing industries 69 439 12 256 81.00 % 9 927
CONSTRUCTION AND PUBLIC WORKS 260 285 30 593 81.00 % 24 780
TRANSPORT 5 511 592 0 0 % 0 DOMESTIC SECTOR 2 552 909 669 592 60.00 % 401 755 2 009 SERVICES 1 941 205 374 346 81.00 % 303 220 343 593
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9.6 Economic potential of high-efficiency cogeneration
9.6.1 Scenarios for evolution
The data submitted in the previous work relating to the economic evolution of cogeneration in
Portugal indicated two scenarios of evolution until 2020 (a pessimistic and an optimistic scenario) as
shown in Figure 9.11. These scenarios were also cited and incorporated in 2014 in the report of the
European Project CODE2 - Cogeneration Observatory and Dissemination Europe (CODE2, 2014),
where they showed the evolution of the economic potential for cogeneration by 2020.
Figure 9.11 – Economic scenarios for cogeneration (Source: EEP, INESCC, ISR, Protermia, 2010)
Figure 9.11 Legend:
Portuguese: English: Pessimista Pessimistic Otimista Optimistic Ano Year
In Table 12, the values for both scenarios (pessimistic and optimistic) are shown, as well as a
projection until 2026 based on the evolution trends of the technical potential calculations used in this
study.
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[MW
e]
Table 12 – Scenarios for evolution in MWe (Source: EEP, INESCC, ISR, Protermia. 2008)
Year Pessimistic scenario
(MWe)
Optimistic scenario
(MWe)
2008 1 070 1 770
2014 1 346 2 225
2015 1 294 2 140
2020 1 461 2 415
2026 1 573 2 600
Figure 9.12 shows the graph of the evolution of the economic potential for the 2008-2026 period.
EVOLUTION SCENARIOS OF THE ECONOMIC POTENTIAL FOR COGENERATION
3 000
2 500
2 000
1 500
1 000
500
0
2008 2014 2015 2020 2026
Real Pessimistic Scenario Optimistic Scenario
Figure 9.12 – Scenarios of evolution of the economic potential for cogeneration until 2026 (Source: DGE)
According to the data provided by the DGEG, and taking into consideration that the working
cogeneration units in 2014 totalled 1 759 MW of installed electric capacity, since there are no
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cogeneration projects planned for the next few years, it is expected that the evolution of
cogeneration will be closer to the pessimistic scenario shown in the previous graph.
For example, it is known that at present it is not expected that there will be investments of this size
(mainly due to the public nature of most of them), in the services sector, and in particular in hospital
buildings (which represent the buildings with greatest potential for the installation of cogeneration
units). Only the private healthcare operators (which in some cases include some international
groups) could potentially have the financial capacity to kick-start projects of this nature. However,
given the legislative and incentives framework current in force, these operators could consider the
investment in these cogeneration units as not being very attractive from an economic point of view.
Despite all the problems that the Portuguese economy went through, and continues to go through,
there is a high economic potential in high-efficiency cogeneration, especially in the industrial sector.
9.6.1.1 Projected evolution of consumption
The Primes model (Capros et al. 2016) is probably the most complete basis for the prediction of
energy consumption in the European Union. According to this model, in its update for 2016, the
consumption in Portugal should evolve according to Table 13, which includes the projected
contribution of cogeneration in meeting the heating needs.
On the other hand, there are projected reductions of consumption in the industrial sector and in
transportations, which will be practically compensated by increases in the residential sector and
services sector.
Cogeneration will, therefore, contribute with a share of electric power produced and consumed in
Portugal which is not insignificant as shown in Table 14, with an expected 11.3 % increase in the
contribution for the total consumption of electricity (from 19 % to 21.1 %), after reaching a peak of
23.4 % in 2020.
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Table 13 - Projected evolution of consumption of energy in Portugal between 2015 and 2035 (Source: EU Reference Scenario 2016)
Units - ktoe
2015
2020
2025 2015- 2025
Primary energy consumption 21 514 19 893 19 646 -8.7 % Final Energy Demand (in ktoe) 16 789 16 831 16 655 -0.8 % by sector Industry 5 066 5 193 4 943 -2.4 % Energy intensive industries 3 613 3 713 3 525 -2.4 % Other industrial sectors 1 452 1 480 1 418 -2.4 % Residential 2 632 2 742 2 780 5.6 % Tertiary 2 224 2 251 2 250 1.2 % Transport(5) 6 867 6 645 6 682 -2.7 % by fuel Solids 17 15 11 -36.8 % Oil 8 142 7 717 7 695 -5.5 % Gas 1 691 1 809 1 740 2.9 % Electricity 3 865 4 051 4 100 6.1 % Heat (from CHP and District Heating) 325 366 338 4.0 % Renewable energy forms 2 748 2 868 2 764 0.6 % Other 1 4 6 405.8 %
Table 14 - Projected evolution of the production of electricity and of the proportion generated in cogeneration units in Portugal (Source: EU Reference Scenario 2016)
2014
Actual values
2020
2025 2015- 2025
Gross Electricity generation by source (GWhe)
48 507
47 988
% of gross electricity from CHP 14.2 % 22.7 % 21.0 % 32.4 %
% of electricity consumption from CHP 16.6 % 23.4 % 21.1 % 21.4 %
The projected evolution of consumption for the various sub-sectors of the industry is shown in Table
15, which also includes a distribution of the total by the various energy sources and also shows the
contribution of cogeneration in the sector. However, it should be noted that the cogeneration
contribution is possibly underestimated because of the non-inclusion of its own generation of
heat/vapour, according to Eurostat's calculation criteria, since in these cases what is considered is
the primary energy supplied to the cogeneration units of the industry and not the heat they produce
for direct use. In any case, one should note the projected increase of 11.3 % in the contribution of
cogenerated heat for non-electric uses, although that is also the result of a significant reduction of
the consumption of solid fuels (coal) and of derivatives of petroleum, only slightly compensated by
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an increase in the consumption of natural gas. The projected reduction in consumption in the paper
and pulp (-7.3 %) and textiles (-19.4 %) sub-sectors is also relevant, as those sectors have a significant
weight in installed industrial cogeneration.
Table 15 - Projected evolution of consumption by industrial sub-sector in Portugal (Source: EU Reference Scenario2016)
2015
2020
2025 2015- 2025
Final Energy Demand (in ktoe) 5 066 5 193 4 943 -2.4 % By sector Iron and steel 162 173 156 -3.4 % Non-ferrous metals 22 22 22 -1.2 % Chemicals 443 453 444 0.1 % Non-metallic minerals 1 381 1 410 1 415 2.4 % Paper and pulp 1 605 1 656 1 488 -7.3 % Food, drink and tobacco 482 495 480 -0.5 % Engineering 202 216 212 4.8 % Textiles 269 258 217 -19.4 % Other industries 500 512 510 2.1 % By fuel Solids 17 15 11 -36.8 % Oil 771 682 625 -18.9 % Gas 1 203 1 300 1 222 1.6 % Electricity 1 346 1 396 1 427 6.0 % Heat (distributed CHP) 295 338 310 5.2 % Other (Biomass, waste, hydrogen etc.) 1 434 1 461 1 348 -6.0 % % Heat/total consumption 5.8 % 6.5 % 6.3 % 7.8 % % Heat/non-electric 7.9 % 8.9 % 8.8 % 11.3 %
The Primes model also includes a projection of consumption in the residential sector (Table 16),
including a residual contribution of cogeneration, possibly corresponding to the only existing heat
and cooling distribution network, despite the statistical data previously referenced (National Energy
Balance) not mentioning it. According to the illustrated data, the projected increase in consumption
in the sector will be essentially justified by the consumption of natural gas and other sources
(possibly biofuels and solar energy), with the projected increase in consumption for domestic
appliances and illumination possibly compensated by a smaller consumption of electricity for air-
conditioning, therefore resulting in a slight reduction in electricity consumption in this sector. Finally,
the evolution projected for the services and agriculture sectors is shown in Table 17.
In this case, it is worth highlighting the expected reduction in the consumption for air-conditioning,
compensated almost entirely by the increase in consumption in electric equipment and lighting. The
projected reduction in the contribution of cogeneration for these sectors should also be highlighted,
which is certainly connected with the expected reduction in the consumption for air-conditioning.
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Table 16 - Projected evolution of residential consumption in Portugal (Source: EU Reference Scenario 2016)
2015
2020
2025 2015- 2025
Final Energy Demand (in ktoe) 2632 2742 2780 5.6 % By end use Heating and cooling (incl. cooking) 2210 2305 2334 5.6 % Electric appliances and lighting 422 438 446 5.7 % By fuel Solids 0 0 0
Oil 515 486 510 -1.0 % Gas 248 278 298 20.1 % Electricity 1 048 1 067 1 039 -0.9 % Heat 8 10 10 27.7 % Other 813 901 923 13.5 % % Heat/total consumption 0.30 % 0.35 % 0.36 % 20.9 % % Heat/non-electric 0.49 % 0.57 % 0.57 % 16.2 %
Table 17 - Projected evolution of consumption in the services and agriculture sectors in Portugal (Source: EU Reference Scenario 2016)
2015 2020 2025 2015 -2025 Final Energy Demand (in ktoe) 2 224 2 251 2 250 1.2 % By sector Services 1 803 1 829 1 833 1.7 % Agriculture 421 422 417 -1.0 % By end use Heating and cooling 1 194 1 134 1 064 -10.9 % Electric appliances and lighting 643 731 804 25.2 % Agriculture specific uses 387 386 382 -1.4 % By fuel Solids 0 0 0 Oil 465 396 374 -19.5 % Gas 226 216 198 -12.3 % Electricity 1 432 1 538 1 577 10.2 % Heat 22 19 18 -21.0 % Other 79 82 82 4.5 % % Heat/total consumption 1.0 % 0.8 % 0.8 % -21.9 % % Heat/non-electric 2.8 % 2.6 % 2.6 % -7.0 %
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9.6.2 Cost-benefit analysis
Background and assumptions
In the previous chapters, it was verified that the current needs of heat and cooling in the residential
sector are significantly lower than the European average, which means that the areas with the
highest consumption density, corresponding to the central civil parishes of Lisbon and Porto, fall well
under the viability threshold established by Directive 2012/27/EU for heat and cooling supply
networks. This result is compatible with the perception that both the heating season and the cooling
season have a reduced duration and intensity, which has somehow led to a very reduced level of use
of central heating systems over time in favour of air-conditioning distribution systems with smaller
setup costs. The current evolution of the housing market should be highlighted, with a small number
of new builds, which would necessarily imply an investment in the refitting of existing housing and
constructions. It should be mentioned that even the existing centralised systems are mostly only
centralised at the level of the individual house, so that the construction of infrastructures would have
to include a connection to each individual house, in addition to the internal network in the house in
the many cases where this does not exist.
In those circumstances, it was decided that it was only relevant to carry out a cost-benefit analysis of
individual projects connected with industrial units and/or large services buildings, when justified by
the consumption of heating. Therefore, it was decided that this analysis should focus on the generic
viability of those projects on an individual basis in terms of electrical capacity, taking into account
different size categories and certain conditions that limited usage under two essential perspectives:
the perspective of the investor and the perspective of society.
The perspective of the individual investor looks at the benefits and costs incurred in by the investor,
therefore including the existing cogeneration incentives in the shape of the guaranteed value of the
electric power generated (where applicable), the value of the thermal energy produced, the
combustible fuel costs, as well as any rates and taxes. The social perspective looks at the benefits and
costs felt by society, eliminating internal trades, such as the incentives and any rates and taxes, but
including the avoided external factors associated with the savings in primary energy.
The discount rate applied in the calculation of updated values should also be lower than the rate
used in the private perspective, since society does not aim to make a profit and should ensure the
best interests of future generations. In both cases it is considered that the investment occurs in year
zero, considering that possible capital interest will be included in the discount rate used. In addition,
the NVP, the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of the investment and the simple payback period will also
be calculated, therefore facilitating the analysis.
The net annual benefits in year i (𝐵𝑖) in the private perspective can therefore be calculated according
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to the following formula:
with 𝐸𝑒𝑖 representing the generation of electric power by the cogeneration unit in year i, 𝑉𝑒
representing the unit value of electric power generated, 𝐸𝑡𝑖 the production of useful thermal energy,
𝑉𝑡 the unit value to allocate to the useful thermal energy, 𝐸𝑝𝑖 the primary energy consumed by the
cogeneration unit, C𝑐 the daily cost of combustible fuel used and C𝑂&𝑀 the annual operation and
maintenance costs.
From the perspective of society, since the electricity and thermal energy produced are replacing
energy produced by conventional units, the annual net benefits result only from the savings in
primary energy (SPE), which is calculated as a percentage figure according to the instructions in the
directive in relation to the reference values for the separate production of electricity and heat.
Therefore, the net annual benefits in year i from the perspective of society can therefore be
calculated according to the following formula:
with C𝑒𝑥𝑡 corresponding to the external costs per unit associated with the combustible fuel considered.
The electric power generated per installed kW (𝐸𝑒) is only the result of the number of peak hours of
use to be considered. The analysis of the working cogeneration units in Portugal determined an
average use of 4 255 hours, a value which is close to the 4 500 hours normally stated as being
necessary to make the units viable. The analysis being carried out will use a variable band around this
value.
The thermal power produced with be calculated according to the electric power generated, based on
a predetermined T/E ratio. The average value calculated for the working units in Portugal was 2.57
and from the equipment data we can consider ratios between 0.75 and 3 as viable .
The primary energy consumed (𝐸𝑝) can therefore be calculated based on the electric and thermal
components generated and in a specification of savings in primary energy to occur, corresponding, at
least, to the definition of high-efficiency cogeneration, i.e. stipulating PEP = 0,1 (10 %), according to
the following formula:
With ɳ𝑒l representing the reference value for the separate generation of electricity and ɳ𝑡 the
reference value for the separate generation of heating, according to the directive.
It should be noted that, based on this definition, the formula that determines the annual net benefits
from the point of view of society results in:
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Test scenarios
The existing technical potential is split between the manufacturing industry and large services
buildings. The manufacturing industry represents most of the potential, which results from the
heating needs for processing, and where installed capacities could reach significant values. In large
services building, the installed capacity could reach much smaller values, especially when considering
the need to make viable close to 4 500 hours of peak use. In any case, the analysis included both data
relating to very small units and data relating to very large units, therefore seeking to include a wide
range of scenarios. The data considered is shown in Table 20.
Table 20 - Data of generic systems to be used in the test scenarios (Source: Eurostat 2016, subsidies
and costs of EU energy).
Case
Type
Electric capacity
[kW]
Capital cost
[EUR/kW]
Working life
[year]
Operation and
maintenance costs
- EUR/kWh
Price of combustible
fuels EUR/kWh
Price of electric power (sale)
EUR/kWh
Price of electric power
(self-consumption)
EUR/kWh
1 Motor 5 1 650 15 0.0687 0.0639 0.087 0.1527 2 Motor 50 711 15 0.0208 0.0639 0.087 0.1527 3 Motor 500 504 15 0.0208 0.0423 0.087 0.1126 4 Motor 2 000 409 15 0.0165 0.0333 0.087 0.1126 5 TG 5 000 561 20 0.0155 0.0333 0.087 0.1126 6 TG 10 000 478 20 0.0138 0.0333 0.087 0.1126 7 TG 20 000 408 20 0.0138 0.0274 0.087 0.1126 8 CCGT 100 000 401 20 0.0103 0.0265 0.065 - 9 CCGT 200 000 374 20 0.0103 0.0265 0.065 -
10 CCGT 450 000 373 20 0.0103 0.0265 0.065 -
It is assumed that all the systems used consume natural gas, which is the most desirable fossil fuel
from an environmental perspective.
The discount rates being applied are 4 %7 for the perspective of the society, which is the value
normally used by the European Commission, and 7 %8 for the medium-term private perspective.
For capacities up to 20 MW, the price of electricity which was used was the average value for 2016
(data until July) of the generation under the special scheme, 0.087 EUR/kWh (Source: ERSE), and in
7 Validated by the DGEG. 8 Value recommended by the European Commission and used in the reports by the other Member States. The
current interest rates are lower, but in a mid-term perspective it is more realistic to use higher values.
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the cases of self-consumption, the average price of purchase of electricity from the grid in MV,
0.1126 EUR/kWh (Source: ERSE).
For capacities higher than 20 MW, the price of electricity used was the wholesale price, resulting in a
value of 0.065 EUR/kWh as the indicative value as of October 2016 (Source: MIBEL)9.
Analysis of scenarios
The following typical scenarios were analysed in order to profile a wide range of possible facilities:
Case 1.
The following scenarios were tested in the case of a small internal combustion engine with a capacity
of 5 kW (Annex 2 – Table A2.1).
• Peak use between 4 000 and 4 500 hours;
• T/E ratio between 0.5 and 2.57;
• Cogeneration for self-consumption and falling under the special scheme cogeneration, with and without efficiency premiums.
The results show that only in the perspective of the society is there a positive NPV, and with a high
T/E ratio (2.6), assuming a significant use at the maximum capacity of more than 4 000 hours. In the
private perspective, there is no encouraging result in any case, which results from the small
difference between the electricity generated and the cost of combustible fuel, together with the
significant cost of operation and maintenance, which results in constant annual negative results.
Case 2.
This case, consisting of an internal combustion engine with a capacity of 50 kW (Annex 2 – Table
A2.2), was tested in a similar manner to the previous case. The results from the point of view of
society are now more interesting, being always positive in every case, and reaching a NPV of
1 143 EUR/kW in the most favourable case, with a peak use of 4 500 hours and a T/E ratio of 2.6.
However, in the private perspective it is only possible to achieve a positive NPV for case of self-
consumption and with a high T/E ratio, with a maximum of 611.6 EUR/kW, corresponding to a simple
payback period of 5 years and an IRR of 19 % for the situation of highest peak use and highest T/E
ratio.
Case 3.
The case of an internal combustion engine with a capacity of 500 kW (Annex 2 – Table A2.3), was
tested in a similar manner to the previous cases. The results from the point of view of society are
9 http://www.omie.es/files/flash/ResultadosMercado.swf
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now very interesting, reaching a NPV of 217.34 EUR/kW, with an IRR of 23 % and a payback period on
investment of 4 years for the most favourable case. In the private perspective, it is now possible to
obtain a positive NPV, but only for self-consumption and for a high T/E ratio. Even then, it is possible
to obtain an IRR of 13 % and payback periods on investment of 6.7 years.
Case 4.
For a combustion engine of 2 MW (Annex 2 – Table A2.4) tested in a similar manner, it was already
possible to obtain positive results in all the situations tested, reaching an IRR in the private
perspective of 46 %, a NPV of 1 340 EUR/kW and a simple payback period of 2.18 years for the most
favourable situation (maximum peak use and maximum T/E). Even in the perspective of the society
there are high yields, resulting from a good performance and an installation cost per unit lower than
in the previous cases.
Case 5.
The same scenarios that have already been explained were applied to the case of a gas turbine of
5 MW (Annex 2 – Table A2.5) and, once again, there were positive results in all perspectives and in all
situations, only slightly worse in terms of indicators given the higher installation costs. Once again,
the self-consumption situation is the most favourable, especially when associated with a high use of
capacity and a high T/E ratio. However, even the scenario of remuneration as a cogenerator under
the special category is attractive, therefore allowing a great deal of flexibility for use of the electricity
generated, as long as there is a good use of the heat generated. Even then, the NPV in the private
perspective is not very high in those circumstances, remaining between 11.7 EUR/kW and
836.7 EUR/kW, which implies some care with the installation options.
Case 6.
Gas turbines of 10 MW (Annex 2 – Table A2.6) show even better results than in the previous case,
which results from a lower cost per unit. It should be highlighted that, despite being a bit better, the
NPV in the private perspective continues to have inferior values sufficiently low to require some care
with the options chosen, should it not be possible to ensure a high level of peak use and a high T/E
ratio, especially if there is the intention of attempting to avoid the limitation of self-consumption.
Case 7.
For a gas turbine of 20 MW (Annex 2 – Table A2.7), results continue to be very interesting, both from
the point of view of society and from the private point of view, with payback periods of around 2
years in the private perspective and of 5 to 10 years in the perspective of the society, depending on
the production ratio between useful thermal energy and electricity. However, it should be noted that
the NPV for the society varies between 141.7 EUR/kW and 817.3 EUR/kW, so that some variation in
the costs could affect the final result, namely if the implementation of cogeneration implies
significant costs in terms of construction works.
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Case 8.
In this case, for a combined cycle power station of 100 MW (Annex 2 – Table A2.8), only the limits of
4 000 and 4 500 hours of peak use and the variation of the T/E ratio between the stipulated limits
were tested. The results in the perspective of the society are always positive in terms of NPV,
showing internal rates of return between 8 and 22 % and simple payback periods between 4.5 and 10
years. In the private perspective it shows that peak use and the T/E ratio must be as high as possible,
since a positive NPV is not reached for a use of 4 000 hours with a low T/E ratio. Even then, it is
possible to reach internal rates of return between 15 and 17 % for T/E ratios in line with the current
average for the active cogeneration units in Portugal.
Case 9.
In this case, for a combined cycle power station of 200 MW (Annex 2 – Table A2.9), as in the previous
case, only the limits of 4 000 and 4 500 hours of peak use and the variation of the T/E ratio between
the stipulated limits were tested, with excellent results being obtained for all cases, both in the
perspective of the society and in the private perspective, with payback periods between 5 and 10
years in the private perspective, and 4 to 10 years in the perspective of the society, reaching internal
rates of return of 18 % and 23 %, respectively. However, the private NPV varied between 4.4 and
372.3 EUR/kW, which could mean some risk, should the implementation costs be higher than those
used as reference. Therefore, there should be some care taken to ensure a good use of the thermal
energy, since the result is depends especially on the T/E ratio.
Case 10.
The final case, for a combined cycle power station of 450 MW (Annex 2 – Table A2.10), was analysed
under similar conditions to the previous example and has very similar results, with slightly lower
internal rates of return, but showing very positive NPVs in both perspectives, especially for uses of
capacity close to 4 500 hours and with higher T/E ratios.
9.7 Strategies, policies and measures for the realisation of the potential identified
9.7.1 Cogeneration public support measures - definition of priority interest and sectors
The combined generation of electricity and heat, especially for industrial purposes, has grown and
has reached a very significant importance in Portugal as a result of the various incentive schemes
that have been in place since 1988. In 2014, the generation of electricity in cogeneration represented
14 % of the national generation, 16 % of the consumption and 32 % of the thermoelectric generation,
and heating generated corresponded to 13 % of the final consumption of thermal energy (36 % if we
exclude the consumption of road fuels). According to the assumptions in the directive, the savings in
primary energy are estimated at 31 PJ, corresponding to a reduction of one third in the consumption
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of primary energy which would be necessary to meet the final consumption currently supplied by
those units. In that sense, the promotion of cogeneration has shown to be a very successful policy,
contributing decisively for a greater energy efficiency of the national economy.
However, it has been possible to identify some cases of less adequate use of the incentives
throughout the years, which led to the existence of units with a negative contribution to the final
objective of generating savings, due to a very small level of use of the heat generated. As such, it is
important that the incentive systems take into account the interest of society and are adjusted
according to the meeting of objectives, despite the need to ensure the necessary stability for the
enabling of the investments desired.
As a result of the assessment carried out of the existing technical potential in the various sectors, it is
therefore concluded that it may be useful to continue to promote the installation of cogeneration
units in industrial facilities that can use the heat generated and that can generate savings of primary
energy substantial enough to meet the definition of high-efficiency cogeneration, whilst always
seeking to ensure the maintenance of economic viability.
In relation to the service sector in Portugal, ways of creating incentives for this type of facilities in
hospitals and other units that ensure the use of heating during a number of hours that is long enough
to justify cogeneration from an economic sense should be studied. It should also be taken into
account the fact that, even in the cases where it is viable to install equipment for the generation of
cooling from residual heat, only facilities that use a portion of the heating that is not negligible in a
direct manner (e.g. for space heating, hot sanitary water or for sterilisation) are socially interesting.
Finally, in relation to the residential sector, the Portuguese climate conditions together with the
economic situation of the households result in a level of consumption that is currently too small to
anticipate any viability in the installation of individual units or centralised systems with a respective
supply network. In addition, as has already been documented in this report, the highest consumption
densities, which corresponded only to some of the urban areas of Lisbon and Porto, are much lower
than the reference density in the European directive (130 kWh/m²). As such, despite a projected
increase of 5.6 % in the consumption for heating and cooling, it is not anticipated that that viability
can be met even by 2025. Moreover, the continuation and enhancement of the investment in the
improvement of the thermal envelope of buildings through upgrading works or the use of renewable
energies (namely in the thermal solar and solar photovoltaic energy sectors) will certainly be
investments which are more socially attractive and which reduce even more the interest of this
sector in cogeneration.
9.7.2 Incentive system for existing cogeneration and possible improvements
Decree-Law no. 68-A/2015 of 30 April 2015 amended for the second time Decree-Law no. 23/2010 of
25 March 2010, which had already been amended by Law no. 19/2010 of 23 August 2010 and which
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creates the policies of the cogeneration activity, enshrining, on the one hand, the paradigm created
by Directive no. 2012/27/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council and, on the other hand,
sustainable remuneration schemes that maintain the incentive to renewable and high-efficiency
cogeneration.
According to this decree, there are two remuneration schemes, a general and a special scheme.
The general remuneration scheme is divided into two sub-categories: one that allows the total or
partial input of the energy generated into the public service electricity network and another that
allows the self-consumption of that energy, which in the case of cogeneration facilities with an
electrical input capacity equal to or less than 20 MW benefits from the guarantee of the purchase of
surplus energy by the supplier of last resort.
Cogeneration units with a network input capacity equal to or less than 20 MW which consume part
of the energy generated can deliver the energy that has not been consumed to the supplier of last
resort (SLR) according to the terms that have been pre-defined by a specific ministerial implementing
order.
The cogeneration units that sell all or part of the electricity generated in organised markets or
through bilateral contracts, whether because they exceed the input threshold or by own choice,
enter into those contracts according to the rules in force for the producers of electrical power in
general.
When the electricity generated, in addition to being used in auxiliary services, is destined to
supplying an associated unit and the thermal energy is destined to the cogenerator itself, i.e.
supplied to a third-party, it is considered that the cogeneration unit is operating in self-consumption
mode. The cogeneration installations that meet this criteria which are connected to the public
electricity network are required to pay a fixed monthly compensation amount for a period of 10
years following the award of the operating licence. That compensation amount is destined to meet
the share of costs of the general economic interest in the global use tariff of the system allocated to
cogeneration units with an installed electric capacity equal to or less than 20 MW according to their
proportion in the National Electricity System, calculated based on the electric capacity of the unit and
of the voltage level of the interconnection. That serves the purpose of funding the network
availability to meet the generation needs when the electricity generating groups are out of service.
The special remuneration scheme applies to cogeneration facilities with an installed electric capacity
of less than, or equal to 20 MW, which can also benefit from high-efficiency and renewable energy
premiums, depending on the savings of primary energy that occur and the source of primary energy
used. The category will be effective for a period of 120 months, as long as the conditions for its
award are maintained, with a possible extension of 60 months as long as there are savings of primary
energy and, if applicable, the requirements for the high-efficiency premium and renewable energy
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premium are maintained. In these circumstances, the price of sale of energy supplied to the supplier
of last resort will result from a reference tariff plus the possible high-efficiency and renewable energy
premiums, for which the conditions are published and updated through specific ministerial
implementing orders.
Whenever the cogeneration unit has a total thermal output higher than 20 MW, the award of the
prior control licences for the cogeneration depends, amongst other things, from a favourable cost-
benefit analysis, carried out according to the terms of the decree-law. It also depends on the
estimated savings of primary energy, of the production of useful heat and of the global cogeneration
efficiency, calculated according to the provisions of the decree-law.
Cogeneration units using combustible fuels with an emissions coefficient equal to or smaller than
natural gas are given priority in the connection to the public service electricity network in the same
terms as the production of electricity from renewable sources, but without hindering access to the
network of electricity from renewable sources.
The above conditions therefore describe a set of specifications that differentiates the cogeneration
units by installed electric and thermal capacity and interconnection, with limits set at 20 MW. We
should highlight the very specific cost-benefit analyses that are required from all units with a capacity
exceeding 20 MW independently of their mode of input, and the bonuses awarded to smaller units
with electric capacity of less than 20 MW, justified by the savings in primary energy and by the
possibility of using renewable fuels. We should also mention that units operating in self-consumption
mode have a compulsory monthly payment for 10 years which is proportional to the interconnection
capacity and which relates to the general use item of the electricity rates system.
Since a good global performance should allow a cogeneration unit to achieve a competitive
production cost, as long as an adjustment is made in respect of the differences in the cost of
combustible fuels and of the equipment itself depending on the scale, the current incentives system
seems to attempt to balance this aspect by favouring smaller units, but without taking too much
responsibility away from them. However, given the recent publication of the decree-law mentioned,
the efficacy of this scheme in the promotion of high-efficiency cogeneration to realise the existing
potential can only be determined in the future, by monitoring the evolution of the system.
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10 Conclusions and recommendations
The new cogeneration units that started operating during the 2008-2015 period were considered to
be of high-efficiency according to the legislation at the time, therefore fulfilling some of the potential
identified in 2008. However, a significant part of the high-efficiency cogeneration potential that was
identified was not fulfilled.
However, the legislation was altered in 2015 so as to promote the installation of small and medium-
sized units (suitable for the sectors with higher penetration in cogeneration) through a fixed and
subsidised rate according to the efficiency achieved and to the use of renewable fuels. It guaranteed
the purchase by the supplier of last resort of energy generated in units with an interconnection
capacity of less than 20 MW, but it opened the possibility to all units of establishing contracts directly
with consumers or to negotiate in the market. It should also be noted that there are compulsory
periodic evaluations with the aim of confirming the maintenance of the yields that justify the
bonuses.
In relation to the potential associated with heat and cooling supply networks, it was verified that
there is not a sufficient level of consumption to justify those networks at an exclusively residential
level because of the characteristics of the sector in Portugal, which has a small level of consumption
for space heating and even smaller for cooling, and where there is a very small degree of penetration
of centralised air-conditioning systems, which would increase costs even further in any process of
adaptation to a new infrastructure. In any case, the highest density of consumption is so much lower
than the minimum threshold proposed in the directive that, even considering the combination with
consumption in services buildings, it would not be easy to reach viable thresholds. These factors will
explain the fact that there is only one district heating and cooling network in Continental Portugal,
which was planned and built under very favourable conditions during the urbanisation phase of a
large area of high-value housing and a great number of large services buildings. In the Azores and
Madeira no system of this type was identified. Therefore, the promotion of these networks does not
appear to be an attractive option, being more adequate to enhance industrial cogeneration and the
policies for the improvement of the thermal envelope and for the use of renewable energies in
housing, mainly in the context of renewal works.
In 2014, the working cogeneration units totalled 1 759 MW of electric installed capacity and
4 631 MW of thermal capacity, having generated a total of 7.5 TWh of electricity and 19.2 TWh of
thermal energy, corresponding to a T/E ratio of 2.57. The working cogeneration units also had an
overall efficiency of 79 % and an average number of plant utilization hours of 4 255. The application
of assumptions and reference values associated with the directive, taking into account the
combustible fuels used in each unit and the network losses due to the location's voltage level, results
in expected global savings of 30 740 TJ of primary energy, corresponding to 33.5 % of savings.
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The cogeneration potential that is thought to be attainable based on the 2014 situation would
represent 11 TWh to 13TWh of electric energy generation (29 % of national consumption) and
2.5 GW to 3.1 GW of installed capacity, representing therefore an increase of 0.7 GW to 1.3 GW of
electric power, maintaining the currently existing average production characteristics. However, the
evolution of this potential until 2024 is expected to follow a slightly negative trend, due to the
estimated reduction in consumption in the most influential sectors, namely the paper and pulp
sector, the textile sector, and even the consumption for air-conditioning in the services sector, with a
predicted attainable potential of 2.2 Mtoe to 2.7 Mtoe of thermal production from cogeneration, or
10 TWh to 12 TWh of electric power generation and 2.4 GW to 2.9 GW of installed capacity. It should
be noted that part of the uncertainly is associated with the viability of the facilities for the generation
of cooling in the services sector, which is often referred to as trigeneration, and in the systems to
install.
Since a good global performance should allow a cogeneration unit to achieve a competitive
production cost, as long as an adjustment is made in respect of the differences in the cost of
combustible fuels and of the equipment itself depending on the scale, the recently modified
incentives system seems to attempt to balance this aspect by favouring smaller units, but without
taking too much responsibility away from them in respect of the need to maintain a high yield
through an effective use of heat. However, given the recent publication of the decree creating this
scheme, its efficacy in the promotion of high-efficiency cogeneration to realise the existing potential
can only be determined in the future by monitoring the evolution of the system.
However, it is particularly important to adjust the analysis of the cogeneration cooling systems, or
trigeneration, to its particularities, being particularly important to define the method of calculation of
'useful heat', adapting the formula for the calculation of primary energy, ensuring that the heat used
at the entrance to the absorption chiller is not used as a thermal production value which, according
to the directive, would lead to the comparison with a production in a separate boiler, and not with
the correct comparison with the most efficient equipment for the exclusive generation of cold
available in the market for the same power range, therefore ensuring real savings in primary energy.
Moreover, a comparative analysis of these systems allowed us to reach the conclusion that those
savings will only occur if there is a reasonably significant direct use of the heat produced in
cogeneration, for example for space heating, heating sanitary waters or for another purpose useful
to the relevant economic activity.
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With the new tendency for stagnation in the growth of cogeneration, evident in the fact that there
are almost no new licensing requests, the possibility of creating new incentive mechanisms (financial
or otherwise) for cogeneration in Portugal should be considered, namely by creating incentives to the
investment to help overcome the limitations resulting from the situation. It is also important to
develop cogeneration awareness programmes and to publicise successful case studies (namely from
other countries), in the sectors with higher potential.
Renewable cogeneration already plays an important role in some industries, such as in the sub-
sectors of paper and wood. Portugal has international commitments to progressively reduce CO2
emissions. As such, it is important to promote a significant increase of renewable cogeneration
through a greater use of forest and farming residues. The incentives could be extended for facilities
that replace fossil fuels with biomass; the growing use of the latter could stimulate the inland regions
and contribute to mitigate forest fires.
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11 References
ADENE, 2015. Energy Efficiency trends and policies in Portugal. Energy Agency.
Aguiar, R., 2013. Climatologia e Anos Meteorológicos de Referência para o Sistema Nacional de Certificação de Edifícios (Climatology and Reference Meteorological Years for the National System for the Certification of Buildings).
Bertoldi, P., Hirl, B. & Labanca, N., 2012. Energy Efficiency Status Report 2012.
Capros, P., A. De Vita, N. Tasios, P. Siskos, M. Kannavou, A. Petropoulos, S. Evangelopoulou, et al.
2016. EU Reference Scenario 2016 - Energy, transport and GHG emissions Trends to 2050. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union. http://bookshop.europa.eu/en/eu -reference -scenario -20 16 -pbM J0 11 57 93/ .
Code2, 2014. Cogeneration Observatory and Dissemination Europe – D5.1 Cogeneration Roadmap non pilot Member State: Portugal; FAST- Federazione delle associazoni scientifiche e tecniche.
COGEN Europe – The European Association for the Promotion of Cogeneration
- http://www.cogeneurope.eu/
DGEG – Directorate-General for Energy and Geology - http://www.dgeg.pt/
EEP, INESCC, ISR, Protermia 2010. Estudo do Potencial de Cogeração de elevada eficiência em Portugal, Estudo realizado para DGEG, 2010.
INE, I., 2011. Censos 2011.
INE, I., 2014. Employment Statistics 2014.
INE, I., 2010. Fisheries Statistics 2010.
INE, I., 2015. Statistics on Construction and Housing 2015.
ICESD, 2010. 'Inquérito ao Consumo de Energia no Sector Doméstico 2010' (Survey on the Consumption of Energy in the Domestic Sector 2010). Lisbon, Portugal: Instituto Nacional de Estatística (National Statistical Institute)
Klotz, Eva-Maria, e et al. 2014. 'Potential analysis and cost-benefit analysis for cogeneration
applications (transposition of the EU Energy Efficiency Directive) and review of the Cogeneration Act in 2014'. Final report on project I C 4 - 42/13. Prognos AG Marco and Fraunhofer IFAM and IREES and BHKW-Consult.
Lapillonne, B., Pollier, K. and S., N., 2015. Energy Efficiency Trends for households in the EU.
http://www.odyssee-indicators.org/publications/PDF/Overall -Indicator-brochure.pdf
REN – Redes Energéticas Nacionais – www.ren.pt
Telmo Rocha, 2016. Cogeração | Tecnologias de Trigeração (6ª PARTE) (Cogeneration | Trigeneration Technologies (6th PART). Voltimum. http://www.voltimum.pt/artigos/artigos-tecnicos/cogeracao-tecnologias-de-trigeracao-6a- parte
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ANNEXES Annex I – Database user guide
This Excel tool was created to compile all the consumption data of the various sources of energy for the 2008-2014 period.
This collection of data allowed the carrying out of a reliable analysis of the data, which can be filtered according to the user's needs. This filtering can be done by geographic criteria, i.e. by district or municipality of Continental Portugal, Madeira and the Azores.
All the data can also be analysed by CAE and in various units of the International System (Toe, GWh, Ton, etc.) The database also allows to carrying out an analysis of the energy sources by municipality for the reference year (2014) on an individual basis.
This tool is made up of 30 sheets, the content of which will be explained below.
Summary – Contains the instructions for the use of the consolidated database.
Sources energy by CAE 2008-2014 – This sheet contains the consumption broken down by CAE and
by energy source between 2008 and 2014. In this sheet, the data can be filtered by year (2008-2014),
Economic Activity Code (CAE) and Activity Sector (Agriculture and Fisheries, Industry and Services).
The sheets included in the following list correspond to the various sources of energy, for which
consumption data was collected from the DGEG data. In these sheets it is possible to check the
individual consumption values of the respective energy source by municipality and by district.
• Electricity – Breakdown of the consumption of electricity by CAE, municipality and activity sector for 2014.
• NG – Breakdown of the consumption of natural gas by CAE, municipality and activity sector for 2014.
• LPG – Breakdown of the consumption of LPG (butane, propane and automotive LPG) by CAE, municipality and activity sector for 2014.
• Fuel – Breakdown of the consumption of fuel by CAE, municipality and activity sector for 2014.
• Diesel(s) – Breakdown of the consumption of diesel (automotive gas oil and dyed diesel) by CAE, municipality and activity sector for 2014.
• Petrol – Breakdown of the consumption of petrol by CAE, municipality and activity sector for 2014.
• Biodiesel – Breakdown of the consumption of biodiesel by CAE, municipality and activity sector for 2014.
• Lubricants – Breakdown of the consumption of lubricants by CAE, municipality and activity sector for 2014.
• Asphalt – Breakdown of the consumption of asphalt by CAE, municipality and activity sector for 2014.
• Solvents – Breakdown of the consumption of solvents by CAE, municipality and activity sector for 2014.
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• Benzine – Breakdown of the consumption of benzine by CAE, municipality and activity sector for 2014.
• Paraffin – Breakdown of the consumption of paraffin by CAE, municipality and activity sector for 2014.
• Petroleum products (for illumination and as propellant) – Breakdown of the consumption of petroleum products (for illumination and as propellant) by CAE, municipality and activity sector for 2014.
• Naphtha – Breakdown of the consumption of chemical naphtha by CAE, municipality and activity sector for 2014.
• Petroleum coke – Breakdown of the consumption of petroleum coke by CAE, municipality and activity sector for 2014.
• Mat. Aromatic raw materials – Breakdown of the consumption of aromatic raw materials by CAE, municipality and activity sector for 2014.
Evolution by sector – This sheet shows the evolution of consumption by activity sector for the 2008-
2014 period.
Evolution of sub-sectors – Services – This sheet shows the evolution of consumption by sub-sector of
the services sector for the 2008-2014 period.
Evolution of sub-sectors – Industry– This sheet shows the evolution of consumption by sub-sector of
the industrial sector for the 2008-2014 period.
Agriculture and fisheries sector analysis – This sheet shows the analysis of the total consumption in
the agriculture and fisheries sector for 2014, with municipalities with a consumption of more than 20
GWh shown in green, as well as a graphical analysis of the total energy consumption and electricity
consumption by district for 2014.
Industrial sector analysis – This sheet shows the analysis of the total consumption in the industrial
sector for 2014, with municipalities with a consumption of more than 20 GWh shown in green, as
well as a graphical analysis of the total energy consumption and electricity consumption by district
for 2014.
services sector analysis – This sheet shows the analysis of the total consumption in the services
sector for 2014, with municipalities with a consumption of more than 20 GWh shown in green, as
well as a graphical analysis of the total energy consumption and electricity consumption by district
for 2014.
Total – This sheet shows the total consumption values by municipality and activity sector in GWh and
TOE for 2014.
RE generation – This sheets shows the values supplied by the DGEG for the generation of renewable
energies and installed capacity for the 1995-2014 period.
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Consumption of coal 2014 – Shows the values supplied by the DGEG for the coal energy balance for
2014.
Location of cogeneration producers 2014 – This sheet shows a list with the location and CAE of the
cogeneration producers registered in Portugal in 2014. It also shows the evolution of the number of
cogeneration producers in Portugal for the 2008-2014 period.
List of CAEs – Shows a list of CAEs active in Portugal in 2014 according to data supplied by the DGEG.
Analysis of potential – This sheet shows an analysis of the CAEs with potential for cogeneration in
the various activity sectors in municipalities with a consumption of more than 20 GWh (total of
electricity and heat/cooling) in Portugal for 2014.
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Annex II – Cost-benefit analysis tables
Table A2.18 - Case 1 - 5 kW engine (values per kW)
Self-consumption
Benefits No. of hours
Private Social
VAL – limits (EUR) IRR - limits Payback (Years) VAL – limits (EUR) IRR - limits Payback (Years)
Yes X No Yes X No 4 000 4 500 Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper
- X X - X - -4 914.38 -4 241.93 - - - - -795.08 -2.04 -4 % 4 % - 11.13
- X X - - X -5 322.4 -4 565.89 - - - - -688.19 203.99 -3 % 6
- 9.9
- X - X X - -5 047.4 -4 498.3 - - - - -795.08 -2.04 -4 % 4 % - 11.13
- X - X - X -5 472.04 -4 854.3 - - - - -688.19 203.99 -3 % 6
- 9.9
X - - X X - -2 782.88 -2 233.78 - - - - -795.08 -2.04 -4 % 4 % - 11.13
X - - X - X -2 908.33 -2290.59 - - - - -688.19 203.99 -3 % 6
- 9.9
Table A2.19 - Case 2 - 50 kW engine (values per kW)
Self-consumption
Benefits No. of hours
Private Social
VAL – limits (EUR) IRR - limits Payback (Years) VAL – limits (EUR) IRR - limits Payback (Years)
Yes No Yes No 4 000 4 500 Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper
- X X - X - -2 230.28 -1 557.83 - - - - 143.94 936.98 7 % 19 % 9.25 4.8
- X X - - X -2 420.17 -1 663.66 - - - - 250.83 1 143.01 9 % 22 % 8.22 4.26
- X - X X - -2 363.3 -1 814.2 - - - - 143.94 936.98 7 % 19 % 9.25 4.8
- X - X - X -2 569.81 -1 952.07 - - - - 250.83 1 143.01 9 % 22 % 8.22 4.26
X - - X X - -98.78 450.32 5 16 % 11.28 5.77 143.94 936.98 7 % 19 % 9.25 4.8
X - - X - X -6.09 611.64 7 19 % 9.71 5.04 250.83 1 143.01 9 % 22 % 8.22 4.26
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Table A2.20 - Case 3 - 500 kW engine (values per kW)
Self-consumption
Benefits No. of hours
Private Social
VAL – limits (EUR) IRR - limits Payback (Years) VAL – limits (EUR) IRR - limits Payback (Years)
Yes No Yes No 4 000 4 500 Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper
- X X - X - -911.18 -424.33 - -14 % - - 107.32 673.78 7 % 20 % 9.16 4.76
- X X - - X -962.14 -414.44 - -13 % - - 183.68 820.94 9 % 23 % 8.15 4.23
- X - X X - -1 044.20 -680.71 - - - - 107.32 673.78 7 % 20 % 9.16 4.76
- X - X - X -1 111.78 -702.86 - - - - 183.68 820.94 9 % 23 % 8.15 4.23
X - - X X - -240.58 122.91 -
10 % - 7.80 107.32 673.78 7 % 20 % 9.16 4.76
X - - X - X -191.59 217.34 1
13 % 14.19 6.72 183.68 820.94 9 % 23 % 8.15 4.23
Table A2.21 - Case 4 - 2 MW engine (values per kW)
Self-consumption
Benefits No. of hours
Private Social
VAL – limits (EUR) IRR - limits Payback (Years) VAL – limits (EUR) IRR - limits Payback (Years)
Yes No Yes No 4 000 4 500 Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper
- X X - X - 174.69 584.19 13 % 26 % 6.38 3.75 100.05 572.10 7 % 20 % 8.93 4.63
- X X - - X 247.65 708.34 16 % 29 % 5.67 3.33 163.68 694.73 9 % 23 % 7.94 4.12
- X - X X - 41.67 327.82 9
18 % 8.27 5.06 100.05 572.10 7 % 20 % 8.93 4.63
- X - X - X 98.00 419.92 11 % 21 % 7.35 4.49 163.68 694.73 9 % 23 % 7.94 4.12
X - - X X - 845.28 1 131.44 32 % 40 % 3.06 2.48 100.05 572.10 7 % 20 % 8.93 4.63
X - - X - X 1 018.20 1 340.12 37 % 46 % 2.68 2.18 163.68 694.73 9 % 23 % 7.94 4.12
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Table A2.22 - Case 5 - 10 MW gas turbine (values per kW)
Self- consumption
Benefits No. of hours
Private Social
VAL – limits (EUR) IRR - limits Payback (Years) VAL – limits (EUR) IRR - limits Payback (Years)
Yes No Yes No 4 000 4 500 Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper
- X X - X - 168.91 681.45 11 % 20 % 8.14 4.78 71.60 692.46 5 % 16 % 12.05 6.08
- X X - - X 260.12 836.72 13 % 23 % 7.24 4.25 150.64 849.11 7 % 18 % 10.71 5.41
- X - X X - 11.68 369.82 7
15 % 10.38 6.38 71.60 692.46 5 % 16 % 12.05 6.08
- X - X - X 83.23 486.14 9
17 % 9.22 5.67 150.64 849.11 7 % 18 % 10.71 5.41
X - - X X - 967.47 1 325.61 25 % 31 % 4.06 3.26 71.60 692.46 5 % 16 % 12.05 6.08
X - - X - X 1 174.62 1577.53 28 % 35 % 3.56 2.87 150.64 849.11 7 % 18 % 10.71 5.41
Table A2.23 - Case 6 - 20 MW gas turbine (values per kW)
Self-consumption
Benefits No. of hours
Private Social
VAL – limits (EUR) IRR - limits Payback (Years) VAL – limits (EUR) IRR - limits Payback (Years)
Yes No Yes No 4 000 4 500 Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper
- X X - X - 323.58 836.12 15 % 26 % 6.32 3.85 154.23 775.09 7 % 19 % 10.28 5.18
- X X - - X 423.79 1 000.39 17
29 % 5.62 3.43 233.27 931.74 9 % 21 % 9.13 4.61
- X - X X - 166.35 524.49 11 % 19 % 7.86 5.05 154.23 775.09 7 % 19 % 10.28 5.18
- X - X - X 246.90 649.81 13 % 22 % 6.99 4.49 233.27 931.74 9 % 21 % 9.13 4.61
X - - X X - 1 122.14 1 480.28 30
37 % 3.3 2.68 154.23 775.09 7 % 19 % 10.28 5.18
X - - X - X 1 338.30 1 741.21 35 % 43 % 2.89 2.35 233.27 931.74 9 % 21 % 9.13 4.61
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Table A2.24 - Case 7 - 20 MW gas turbine (values per kW)
Self-consumption
Benefits No. of hours
Private Social
VAL – limits (EUR) IRR - limits Payback (Years) VAL – limits (EUR) IRR - limits Payback (Years)
Yes No Yes No 4 000 4 500 Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper
- X X - X - 829.39 1 278.47 28
39 % 3.49 2.56 141.72 681.18 8 % 19 % 10.08 5.09
- X X - - X 984.02 1 489.23 32 % 44 % 3.10 2.28 210.39 817.28 9 % 22 % 8.96 4.52
- X - X X - 672.15 966.84 25
32 % 4 3.14 141.72 681.18 8 % 19 % 10.08 5.09
- X - X - X 807.13 1 138.66 28
36 % 3.56 2.79 210.39 817.28 9 % 22 % 8.96 4.52
X - - X X - 1 627.94 1 922.63 46
52 % 2.19 1.91 141.72 681.18 8 % 19 % 10.08 5.09
X - - X - X 1 898.52 2 230.05 52
60 % 1.93 1.68 210.39 817.28 9 % 22 % 8.96 4.52
Table A2.25 - Case 8 - 100 MW CCGT (values per kW)
Self-consumption
Benefits No. of hours
Private Social
VAL – limits (EUR) IRR - limits Payback (Years) VAL – limits (EUR) IRR - limits Payback (Years)
Yes No Yes No 4 000 4 500 Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper
X X X -22.41 262.60 6
15 % 11.22 6.4 135.94 662.98 8 % 19 % 10.15 8.12 X X X 24.89 345.52 8
17 % 9.97 5.62 203.03 795.96 9 % 22 % 9.02 4.55
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Table A2.26 - Case 9 - 200 MW CCGT (values per kW)
Self-consumption
Benefits No. of hours
Private Social
VAL – limits (EUR) IRR - limits Payback (Years) VAL – limits (EUR) IRR - limits Payback (Years)
Yes No Yes No 4 000 4 500 Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper
- X X X - 51.73 372.36 9 18 % 9.31 5.31 229.87 822.80 10 % 23 % 8.42 4.25
- X X - X 4.43 289.44 7
16 % 10.47 5.97 162.78 689.82 8 % 20 % 9.47 4.78
Table A2.27 - Case 10 - 450 MW CCGT (values per kW)
Self-consumption
Benefits No. of hours
Private Social
VAL – limits (EUR) IRR - limits Payback (Years) VAL – limits (EUR) IRR - limits Payback (Years)
Yes No Yes No 4 000 4500 Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper
X X X 5.35 290.36 7
16 % 10.44 5.96 163.70 690.74 9 % 20 % 9.45 4.77 X X X 52.65 373.28 9
18 % 9.28 5.30 230.79 823.72 10 % 23 % 8.4 4.24