Study on the Intelligent Transport System (ITS) in … on Economic Partnership Projects in Developing Countries in FY2014 Study on the Intelligent Transport System (ITS) in Makassar,

Study on Economic Partnership Projects

in Developing Countries in FY2014

Study on the Intelligent Transport System (ITS) in Makassar, the Republic of Indonesia

Final Report

February 2015

Prepared for:

Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry

Ernst & Young ShinNihon LLC

Japan External Trade Organization

Prepared by:

OMRON SOCIAL SOLUTIONS Co., Ltd.

OMRON ASIA PACIFIC PTE LTD

West Nippon Expressway Company Limited

THE INSTITUTE OF BEHAVIORAL SCIENCES

Japan research institute for social systems

Preface

This report is a compilation of the results of the “Study on Economic Partnership Projects in Developing

Countries in FY2014”, carried out as part of the 2014 operations by OMRON SOCIAL SOLUTIONS Co., Ltd.,

OMRON ASIA PACIFIC PTE LTD, West Nippon Expressway Company Limited, THE INSTITUTE OF

BEHAVIORAL SCIENCES, and the Japan research institute for social systems as contracted by the Ministry of

Economy, Trade and Industry.

This purpose of this investigation, the “Study on the Intelligent Transport System (ITS) in Makassar, the Republic

of Indonesia” is to research the feasibility of projects to maintain Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) at a

cost of 1.38 billion yen to resolve traffic and associated greenhouse gas emissions in cities, and was carried out in

the city of Makassar, South Sulawesi, in Indonesia.

We hope that this report will assist in the realization of the above project, and will be helpful for Japanese

concerned parties.

February 2015

OMRON SOCIAL SOLUTIONS Co. , Ltd.

O M R O N A S I A P A C I F I C P T E L T D

West Nippon Expressway Company Limited

THE INSTITUTE OF BEHAVIORAL SCIENCES

Japan research institute for social systems

Project Map

Source: Prepared by Investigation Team

Makassar

Entire View of Makassar

Entire View of the Republic of Indonesia

Data Source (c) 2014TomTom, based on c Base data Bakosurtanal


Table of Abbreviation

Abbreviation Official Name

ASEAN Association of South‐East Asian Nations

ASP Application Service Provider

B/C Benefit Cost ratio

BPR Bureau of Public Roads

BRT Bus Rapid Transit

CCTV Closed-Circuit Television

EIRR Economical Internal Rate of Return

ETC Electronic Toll Collection

FIRR Financial Internal Rate of Return

GDP Gross Domestic Product

GPS Global Positioning System

IMF International Monetary Fund

IT Information Technology

ITS Intelligent Transport Systems

JETRO Japan External Trade Organization

JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency

LAN Local Area Network

MOT Ministry of Transport

NEDO New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization

NPV Net Present Value

NTMC National Traffic Management Center

OD Origin Destination

ODA Official Development Assistance

PPP Public–Private Partnership

RTMC Regional Traffic Management Centre

RTMS Remote Traffic Microwave Sensor

SMS Short Message Service

SNS Social Networking Service

SP Stated Preferences

TMC Traffic Management Center

VGF Viability Gap Funding

Contents

Preface

Project Map

Table of Abbreviation

Contents

Executive Summary

(1) Project Background and Necessity ................................................................................................................ ES-1

(2) Basic Policy for Determination of Project Contents ..................................................................................... ES-2

(3) Project Outline .............................................................................................................................................. ES-3

(4) Implementation Schedule .............................................................................................................................. ES-5

(5) Implementation Feasibility ........................................................................................................................... ES-6

(6) Technical Advantages of Japanese Company ................................................................................................ ES-9

(7) Map Indicating Business Implementation Points in the Study Country ..................................................... ES-10

Chapter 1 Overview of the Host Country and Sector .......................................................................................... 1-1

Economic and Fiscal Conditions of the Host Country ............................................................................ 1-1 (1)

Characteristic of Indonesia ................................................................................................................. 1-1 ①

Economic Conditions of Indonesia ..................................................................................................... 1-2 ②

Financial Conditions of the Republic of Indonesia ............................................................................. 1-4 ③

Relationship between the Republic of Indonesia and Japan ............................................................... 1-5 ④

Project Target Sector Overview .............................................................................................................. 1-7 (2)

Actual state of the road traffic sector .................................................................................................. 1-7 ①

Issues for road traffic sector .............................................................................................................. 1-12 ②

Condition of the Target Area ................................................................................................................. 1-13 (3)

Makassar City Overview .................................................................................................................. 1-13 ①

Road Traffic Sector Conditions of Makassar .................................................................................... 1-14 ②

Traffic Conditions in Makassar ......................................................................................................... 1-16 ③

Wireless Communication Status in Makassar ................................................................................... 1-17 ④

Chapter 2 Study Methodology ............................................................................................................................ 2-1

Investigation Content .............................................................................................................................. 2-1 (1)

Purpose of Investigation ..................................................................................................................... 2-1 ①

Investigation Overview ....................................................................................................................... 2-1 ②

Investigation Method and Systems ......................................................................................................... 2-3 (2)

Domestic Investigation ....................................................................................................................... 2-3 ①

Local Investigation ............................................................................................................................. 2-3 ②

Investigation Framework .................................................................................................................... 2-4 ③

Investigation Schedule ............................................................................................................................ 2-6 (3)

Total Schedule of Investigations ......................................................................................................... 2-6 ①

Domestic Investigations ...................................................................................................................... 2-7 ②

Local Investigation ............................................................................................................................. 2-8 ③

Chapter 3 Justification, Objectives and Technical Feasibility of the Project ...................................................... 3-1

Project Background and Necessity ......................................................................................................... 3-1 (1)

Project Background ............................................................................................................................ 3-1 ①

Project Overview ................................................................................................................................ 3-1 ②

The Service and Business Model Provided by the Project ................................................................. 3-2 ③

Problems anticipated if the Project is Not Implemented and Effects and Influence of the Project .... 3-3 ④

Comparison of Alternate Methods for the Suggested Project ............................................................. 3-3 ⑤

Project Necessity ................................................................................................................................ 3-4 ⑥

Advancement and Practicality of Energy Use ........................................................................................ 3-5 (2)

Investigations Necessary to Determine Project Contents, etc. ................................................................ 3-6 (3)

Demand projection .............................................................................................................................. 3-6 ①

Grasping and analysis of issues necessary in reviewing and deciding on the content of the project 3-19 ②

Review of Technical Methods .......................................................................................................... 3-21 ③

Review of Applicability of GPS Probe Sensor ................................................................................. 3-26 ④

Overview of the Project Plan ................................................................................................................ 3-34 (4)

Basic Project Content Decision-Making Policy ............................................................................... 3-34 ①

Concept Design and Equipment Specifications ................................................................................ 3-34 ②

Details of the Proposed Project ......................................................................................................... 3-37 ③

Challenges and Solutions Regarding the Selection of the Proposed Technology and System ......... 3-38 ④

Chapter 4 Evaluation of Environmental and Social Impacts ............................................................................... 4-1

Analysis of the present state on the environmental society aspect ......................................................... 4-1 (1)

Analysis of the present state ............................................................................................................... 4-1 ①

Future forecast .................................................................................................................................... 4-4 ②

Environmental Improvement Effect Relating to the Implementation of the Project .............................. 4-6 (2)

Summary of traffic volume and travel speed data .............................................................................. 4-6 ①

Estimation method of environmental improvement effect................................................................ 4-11 ②

Estimation result of environmental improvement effect ................................................................... 4-14 ③

Environmental/Social Impact of Implementation of Project ................................................................ 4-19 (3)

Summary of host country environmental/social care related legislation and measures required for (4)

clearing ............................................................................................................................................................. 4-24

Summary of environmental/social care related legislation related with the project implementation 4-24 ①

Particulars of EIA, etc. of host country required for implementation of project .............................. 4-25 ②

Matters to be done by interested states to realize projects .................................................................... 4-25 (5)

Chapter 5 Financial and Economic Evaluation ................................................................................................... 5-1

Basic Policy ............................................................................................................................................ 5-1 (1)

Integration of Project Costs .................................................................................................................... 5-2 (2)

Overview of equipment installation plans .......................................................................................... 5-2 ①

Traffic information collection sensors and a weather radar to be installed on the roadside ............... 5-3 ②

Equipment for offering traffic information ......................................................................................... 5-3 ③

Collection of probe information and equipment for delivering information ...................................... 5-4 ④

Overview of Preliminary Financial and Economic Analysis Results ..................................................... 5-8 (3)

Prior conditions of analysis................................................................................................................. 5-8 ①

Revenue assumption ........................................................................................................................... 5-9 ②

Financial analysis .............................................................................................................................. 5-11 ③

Economic analysis ............................................................................................................................ 5-14 ④

Chapter 6 Planned Project Schedule.................................................................................................................... 6-1

Project Implementation Schedule Overview .......................................................................................... 6-1 (1)

Project Implementation Schedule Details ............................................................................................... 6-2 (2)

System Development Schedule .......................................................................................................... 6-2 ①

Consultation Schedule with Local Institutions ................................................................................... 6-2 ②

Project Effectiveness Verification Schedule ....................................................................................... 6-2 ③

Plans for Dissemination Development ............................................................................................... 6-3 ④

Chapter 7 Implementing Organization ................................................................................................................ 7-1

Overview of the Implementing Agencies of the Host Country ............................................................... 7-1 (1)

Central Government of the Republic of Indonesia ............................................................................. 7-1 ①

Margautama Nusantara ....................................................................................................................... 7-1 ②

Organizational Structure of the Project Implementation ........................................................................ 7-2 (2)

Capability of the Project Implementing Agencies of the Host Country .................................................. 7-3 (3)

Central Government of the Republic of Indonesia ............................................................................. 7-3 ①

Margautama Nusantara ....................................................................................................................... 7-4 ②

Chapter 8 Technical Advantages of Japanese Company ..................................................................................... 8-1

Forms in which it is envisioned Japanese businesses will participate in planning ................................. 8-1 (1)

Provision of sensors and systems ........................................................................................................ 8-1 ①

Provision of applications .................................................................................................................... 8-1 ②

Provision of contents .......................................................................................................................... 8-1 ③

Education and consulting .................................................................................................................... 8-1 ④

Financing ............................................................................................................................................ 8-2 ⑤

Advantage of Japanese businesses in executing the relevant projects .................................................... 8-3 (2)

Measures necessary to promote the placement of orders with Japanese businesses ............................... 8-5 (3)

Project SWOT analysis, based on this inquiry .................................................................................... 8-5 ①

Strategies necessary to promote the placement of orders ................................................................... 8-5 ②

Executive Summary

ES-1

(1) Project Background and Necessity

In Indonesia, transport demand caused by rapid economic growth and increase in population are deepening the

societal problems of frequent traffic congestion and traffic accidents. Additionally, in 2011 Indonesia issued a

presidential order (Numbers 61 and 71 of 2011) in regard to an action plan reducing greenhouse gas emission and

inventory management of greenhouse gasses, addressing the global issue of global warming due to transport

demand.

Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) use the data collected from sensors and other sources to appropriately regulate

the flow of traffic, easing traffic congestion and reducing the greenhouse has from it, and acting as an effecting

method for traffic accident reduction. In emergent nations such as Indonesia where the infrastructure necessary for

ITS is not adequately in place, it is important that the spread of ITS is promoted by making effective use various

data sources such as already-installed traffic-level sensors and weather sensors, minimizing initial cost. An

effective traffic information provision system is required which combines already common GPS information with

data that can be gained from sensors already in place. Although an emerging traffic information provision service

has been started, issues of information accuracy and additional value in information indicate as of yet unrealized

possibilities.

With the large market of Indonesia’s population of 240,000,000, it is expected that establishment of the country’s

ITS infrastructure will proceed at a swift pace. The impact and improving effect of ITS integration on traffic

issues is great in comparison with neighboring countries. It is also considered that projects in Indonesia, a

developed Southeast Asian nation in terms of traffic issues, could serve as a litmus test for lateral developments

into other Southeast Asian nations. While making use of Japan’s developed ITS technology and know-how, and

improving the perception of Japanese system technology in Indonesia, it is necessary that we contribute to

economic development in the country.

A system will be used to consolidate, analyze, and provide various data gained not only from image sensors

reading traffic conditions and types of probe sensors reading the positions of individual vehicles, but also from

sources such as weather sensors stationed around roads, with the final objective of structuring the business model

for a traffic information provision service in Indonesia.

Addressing the traffic issues of the Republic of Indonesia, ITS feasibility has been carried out through the NEDO

FY2013 The Feasibility Study for Demonstration Project of International Energy Consumption Efficiency

Technology and System “The present state analysis relating to the possibility of the introducing Intelligent

Transport Systems (ITS) aiming at alleviating urban traffic congestion (Indonesia)”. In this study, while placing a

strong purpose on the marketability that became an issue in the aforementioned study, and on building

relationships between government bodies, investigation of technical aspects, investigation of environmental social

aspects, and financial and economic feasibilities will be examined.

ES-2

(2) Basic Policy for Determination of Project Contents

The purpose for the project is, by implementing ITS in the Republic of Indonesia, to carry out collection, analysis,

and provision of traffic information, thereby optimizing traffic on roads.

In Japan, where high-level ITS infrastructures are already established, drivers are able to select their routes based

on traffic information provided by businesses. As a result, traffic can be diverted from congested roads to open

roads, and equalization of traffic levels occurs. Furthermore, weather sensors equipped in open areas and

high-level forecast technology realize road safety during changes in weather conditions. However, in the Republic

of Indonesia, where neither the establishment of an infrastructure of traffic and weather sensors nor a system for

the provision of information has been realized, drivers may not be able to select the optimal route, leading to

excessive traffic congestion.

As a way to resolve the ITS-related issues, from the results of rating project methods from a viewpoint of

investment cost and implementation results, the basic process for the project became to use a joint system

compiling roadside image sensors and car-mounted GPS probe data. By implementing this joint system,

highly-accurate traffic information can be provided inexpensively, with the minimal infrastructure investment

answering to site needs.

In determination of the project site and detailed contents, the following points need to be taken into consideration.

That rating of the compatibility of the technology with the site is possible

That verification of business observing progressive spread through all areas of the Republic of Indonesia is

possible.

That an on-site cooperative stance can be established for the project.

Attention will be given to these points in investigation of project contents.

ES-3

(3) Project Outline

Makassar in South Sulawesi was selected as the project site for the following reasons:

It is composed of a network of toll roads and general roads where drivers have the ability to select alternate routes,

making possible for the site a high compatibility rating with ITS technology. It possesses an economy of the scale

of which business validation over all areas of the Republic of Indonesia is possible. Specific partner businesses

and government organizations exist there, with which on-site cooperative stances can be formed for the project.

A system would be built at the project site so that after the data from installed sensors and car-mounted GPS units

is analyzed and traffic levels are understood, information such as traffic congestion and travel time information

would be provided through roadside smart information signs and websites, as well as smart phones of drivers. The

figure below displays the installation outline of units on the project site.

By collecting and providing traffic and weather-related information in real time, it is considered that diversion of

traffic levels to roads with higher movement efficiency can be achieved, making possible reduction of traffic

congestion and assurance of safety, and effectively reducing energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in

urban areas overall. Specifically, by diverting 10% of traffic, CO2 reduction and energy heat value reduction

effects of approximately 8% are expected to be attained.



Image Sensor, Wireless Packet SensorsSmart Information BoardWeather RadarWeather Sensor

ES-4

The business model in the traffic information provision service business to be ultimately realized by this project is

displayed in the figure below. The central system supporting the business model is a traffic data bank in which

data gained from the various sensors is collected together and analyzed. In order to achieve the spread of traffic

information provision services in Indonesia, consideration is being given to forming the operating agent of this

system as a joint project between Japanese businesses and Indonesian businesses.

Toward the consumer classes displayed on the figure, a hearing was conducted in this study regarding needs and

service price. Based on the study results, a calculation of the market scale for the traffic information provision

service was made, which yielded the results of 700 million yen for the project site of Makassar, and 6 billion 300

million yen for the anticipated spread site of Jakarta.


ES-5

(4) Implementation Schedule

For two years after beginning the project, demonstration will take place in Makassar. Development of systems and

sensors and establishment of infrastructure will progress. After understanding the environment improvement

results and business model profitability, development in Jakarta, Indonesia’s largest city, will be made from the

third year. To further the spread, with the results of the demonstration in Makassar, education and training will be

implemented at seminars for local government offices and businesses.

Years from project start 1st yr. 2nd yr. 3rd yr. 4th yr. 5th yr.

Stage Makassar demonstration Development in Jakarta

System development

Sensor distribution, unit placement

Effect validation

ASP service start

Data provision service

On-site training

Joint company operation preparation time

Joint company independent operation


ES-6

(5) Implementation Feasibility

The project is a plan made up of the following 2 steps:

Stage Investment details Investment amount

(Million Yen)

Procurement

of capital

STEP1: Construction of pilot

system in Makassar city

1) Installation of sensor fixed in

infrastructure and installation of GPS

probe

870 Government

support

(To be

considered)

2) ITS core system development 360 Private

STEP2: Expansion to Jakarta 3) Expansion of ITS core system 1,160 Private

Total 1,380


The estimated amount of total investment required for implementing the project is 1,380 Million Yen. This

includes the investment cost of 870 Million Yen for sensors fixed in infrastructure such as traffic sensors including

highly public CCTV. It is desirable that investment (510 Million Yen) in the core system responsible for offering

transportation information services is done by the private sector, and studying the feasibility of the aforementioned

procurement scheme of 870 Million Yen is one of the objectives of this study. Assuming that cost burden of the

Indonesian government is 870 Million Yen is 50% (equivalent to about 440 Million Yen), FIRR translates into

8.0%, which is equivalent to the long-term discount rate of 8% set based on the policy interest rate in Indonesia,

resulting in 0 NPV.

PPP : Indonesian government payment rate for infrastructure sensors 50 %(buy-out in the second year) Unit: a million yen

Project year 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

(1)Operating revenue 0 8 77 120 166 217 272 332 397 470

(2)Investment + operating costs 1,244 18 206 49 49 49 49 49 49 49

(3)Indonesian government payment 436

Profit and loss (1)-(2)+(3) -1,244 425 -129 71 117 168 223 283 348 421

Accumulated profit and loss -1,244 -819 -948 -877 -759 -591 -368 -85 262 683

FIRR= 8.00%8% NPV= 0

ES-7

Next, we should the results of sensitivity analysis of FIRR for the Indonesian government burden rate with respect

to 870 Million Yen. If we look at these results, when the entire investment in fixed sensors is borne by the

Indonesian government (burden rate 100%), FIRR will be 16%, which exceeds the general hurdle rate (around

15%) of private companies in this country. In other words, out of the total project cost 1,380 Million Yen, if the

Indonesian government supports 870 Million Yen, it can be concluded that the project is feasible as PPP.

Using Viability Gap Funding (VGF), which is one of the support measures for PPP projects granted by the

Ministry of Finance of Indonesia can be a potential way of project formation. However, as of now, the Indonesian

government hasn't expressed its intention to support. Therefore, policy formation for implementing the project is

an issue.

Capital procurement schemes other than the Indonesian government support are JICA’s grant assistance, yen loan,

and overseas investment. However, with regard to grant assistance and yen loan, feasibility is less because the

Indonesian government is yet to show its intention to accept. Besides, for overseas investment, repayment period

of this project is expected to be 10 years, and it is not possible to obtain the interest rate benefits equivalent to the

support of 870 Million Yen.

With regard to the investment scheme of mutually sharing the investment burden of 870 Million Yen required for

implementing the project between the Indonesian government and the Japanese government, NEDO’s

international energy consumption efficiency technology and system demonstration project is useful. While VGF's

scheme require only Indonesian government to bear the cost, in the NEDO project scheme, both Japanese

government and Indonesian government will share responsibilities and cost burden, and it will be easy to obtain

the Indonesian government’s understanding and consent. In specific terms, for contributing to the development

and spread of Japanese technologies and systems, Japanese government (NEDO) offers support for the expense

Payment rate FIRR NPV（8%）

0% 2.5% -373

10% 3.4% -299

20% 4.5% -224

30% 5.6% -149

40% 6.7% -75

50% 8.0% 0

60% 9.4% 75

70% 10.8% 149

80% 12.4% 224

90% 14.1% 299

100% 16.0% 373

Unit ％ Million yen

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Changes in FIRR (%) by the government payment rate

for infrastructure sensors

（Govenment Payment Rate)

（IRR)

ES-8

incurred on making mechanical equipment. On the other hand, the Indonesian government is required to provide

the local site and bear the cost incurred on installing devices.

FY 2014 budget of NEDO projects is 22,000 Million Yen, and according to the application procedure for this year,

every project should have the size of 1,000 Million Yen and above, and the present project satisfies this condition.

In addition, 760 Million Yen out of 870 Million Yen support amount required for successfully setting up this

project as a private business, is the expense to be incurred on procurement and manufacturing the sensors fixed in

infrastructure and systems (mechanical equipment) installed at the project site, and therefore it should be possible

to get adequate support. The remaining 110 Million Yen is the expense incurred on installing sensors fixed in

infrastructure, and support from the Indonesian government is desired for this amount.

For starting the demonstration project, while it is necessary to build consensus with the Indonesian government

with regard to the division of responsibilities and burden of expenses, cost burden of the Indonesian government is

less compared to VGF scheme, and if there is support of NEDO’s international demonstration project scheme,

feasibility of the project is expected to be high.

ES-9

(6) Technical Advantages of Japanese Company

Japan, which has higher population density compared to other countries, has been working on solving the

problems ahead of the work as a developed country facing the transport issues. Japan has a long history of ITS,

and research and development started from 1970s, and both public and private sectors have worked hand-in-hand

so far for developing ITS infrastructure. Over the years, Japanese companies have accumulated the experience of

operating the systems, and they have an edge in terms of technical capabilities and quality compared to overseas

companies. The term ITS was proposed by Japanese researchers for the first time in the 2nd world conference held

in Yokohama 1995, and after that people started using it all over the work. Therefore, it can be said that Japan has

been the leader of ITS all over the world.

In recent years, companies like INRIX and TomTom in the western countries have started offering traffic

information based on probe data, and Google and WAZE have started offering free transportation information

services using position information collected from word of mouth and smartphone. However, cooperative system

proposed in this project using Japan’s superior ITS infrastructure and based on the combination of data obtained

from ITS infrastructure and probe data is expected to large difference in information accuracy as compared to the

traffic information services based on probe data, especially, in the initial stage of service. In systems emphasizing

probe data, until a great number of cars act as probe cars (cars providing positional information to the provider),

information accuracy cannot be assured, however with use of a roadside ITS service, regardless of the number of

probe cars, a certain standard of service can be provided with information gained from the roadside units alone,

which can be considered to be competitive power in the form of a time advantage over the services promoted by

INRIX and TomTom.

Additionally, being that Japan is a country subject to many natural disasters, it can be said that it possesses a

greater perspective in traffic management in relation to weather risk than America or Europe. In Indonesia as well,

squalls and the resulting floods, and the following traffic congestion and accidents are a societal problem for the

country, so by making use of our know-how in weather risk management, it is thought that the advantage of

Japanese business in this project can be further increased.

In addition to the advantage of hardware such as sensors and systems, many Japanese businesses possess

know-how on traffic observation, analysis technology, and road operation, as well as on personnel training and

consulting, with many accomplishments such as being resident overseas engineers. In order to spread ITS among

emerging Southeast Asia, it is important that Japanese accomplishments and developed know-how including

planning, infrastructure establishment, service, education, and personnel training are consistently provided. The

wide array of technology and know-how possessed by Japanese business can be said to hold a competitive

advantage when compared with overseas business.

ES-10

(7) Map Indicating Business Implementation Points in the Study Country

The project will be implemented in the city of Makassar, South Sulawesi Province, in the Republic of Indonesia.

Building and maintaining infrastructure for observing traffic at the main intersections of Makassar city, two toll

roads going from the city to the port, and a general road that runs parallel to the toll roads, collecting probe data

and generation of traffic information, and offering traffic information.


Airport

Makassar City Data Source (c) 2014TomTom, based on c Base data Bakosurtanal

General Road

Harbor

Toll Road

(Harbor Route)

Toll Road

(Airport Route)

Chapter 1 Overview of the Host Country and Sector

1-1

Economic and Fiscal Conditions of the Host Country (1)

Characteristic of Indonesia ①

The Republic of Indonesia has the world's 4th largest population: approximately 237,000,000 (as of 2010) and is

ruled under a republic system. As their national policy of Indonesia, it is a multiethnic country consisting roughly

300 various ethnicities. The majority of the population is of Malay ethnicity, and the Javanese make up around

40%.

The constitution guarantees the freedom of religion, and state-recognized religions include Islam, Christianity,

Hinduism, Buddhism, and Confucianism. In particular, 80% of the total population is Muslim, making Indonesia

the world's largest Islamic state.

The country, straddling the equator, is made of 13,500 small to large islands, and spans over roughly 1,900,000

square kilometers, with an area of 5 times larger than that of Japan. As of 2010, it is composed of 33 states and

497 cities. The capital city is Jakarta, with a population of approximately 9,600,000 (as of 2010), and is the largest

city in Indonesia. Surrounding Jakarta are large cities, such as Bandung, and over half the population of Indonesia

is concentrated on the island of Java, where Jakarta is located in.

In October 2014, following the former president Yudhoyono, who served two terms over a span of 10 years, the

former governor of Jakarta, Joko Widodo, took office as the 7th President of Indonesia. His policy objectives

include infrastructure development and enhancement of social security, and as the nation's first president from

civilian origins, and there are high expectations on future economic developments.

As of 2012, the Republic of Indonesia is the largest economic power in ASEAN. Producing nearly 40% of the

GDP in the region, its abundant population is not only gaining attention as a labor force for production bases, but

also as a market with purchasing power. (Table 1-1)

1-2

Table 1-1: Nominal GDP Comparison Table of ASEAN nations (2012)

Country Name Nominal GDP

(Billion Dollars) Percentage

Indonesia 878 37.60%

Thailand 366 15.70%

Malaysia 305 13.00%

Singapore 2987 12.30%

Philippines 250 10.70%

Vietnam 156 6.70%

Myanmar 56 2.40%

Brunei 17 0.70%

Cambodia 14 0.60%

Laos 9 0.40%

Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2014

Economic Conditions of Indonesia ②

Table 1-2 displays trends in primary economic indicators in the Republic of Indonesia. Although the real

economic growth rate temporarily declined to -13% due to the 1997 Asian currency crisis, thanks to the support

from the International Monetary Fund, it has steadily recovered. The effects of the 2008 bankruptcy of Lehman

Brothers and the ensuing international financial crisis and the 2009 European economic crisis were limited, and

after 2010 the economic growth has steadily reached over 5% annually. The nominal GDP in 2010 reached 700

billion dollars. Nominal GDP per capita is at 3,000 dollars, and is expected to reach 4,000 dollars by 2017.

Recently the rate of increase in the consumer price index has settled from 5% to 6%, and the unemployment rate

that reached its peak in 2005 is slowly declining. Therefore, the economic growth is expected to stably continue.

1-3

Table 1-2: Trends of Economic Indicators in the Republic of Indonesia

Year Real Economic

Growth Rate

Nominal GDP

(Hundred

Million

Dollars)

GDP Per Capita

(Dollars)

Consumer Price

Inflation Rate

Unemployment

Rate

1996 7.80% 2,274 1,154 8.40% 5.00%

1997 4.70% 2,157 1,083 6.20% 4.80%

1998 -13.10% 954 473 58.00% 5.50%

1999 0.80% 1,400 687 20.80% 6.40%

2000 4.20% 1,650 800 3.80% 6.10%

2001 3.60% 1,604 767 11.50% 8.10%

2002 4.50% 1,957 922 11.80% 9.10%

2003 4.80% 2,348 1,091 6.80% 9.50%

2004 5.00% 2,570 1,178 6.10% 9.90%

2005 5.70% 2,858 1,291 10.50% 11.20%

2006 5.50% 3,644 1,623 13.10% 10.30%

2007 6.30% 4,323 1,898 6.70% 9.10%

2008 6.00% 5,105 2,210 9.80% 8.40%

2009 4.60% 5,386 2,299 5.00% 7.90%

2010 6.20% 7,093 2,985 5.10% 7.10%

2011 6.50% 8,456 -3,508 5.30% 6.60%

2012 6.30% 8,778 -3,591 4.00% 6.10%

2013 5.80% 8,703 -3,510 6.40% 6.30%

2014 (5.2%) -8,561 -3,404 (6%) (6.1%)

2015 (5.5%) -9,150 -3,587 (6.7%) (5.8%)

2016 (5.8%) -9,753 -3,770 (6.1%) (5.6%)

2017 (6%) -10,511 -4,006 (5.5%) (5.5%)

2018 (6%) -11,371 -4,272 (5.3%) (5.5%)

2019 (6%) -12,309 -4,560 (5%) (5.5%)

Estimates are in parentheses


1-4

Financial Conditions of the Republic of Indonesia ③

Following the Asian currency crisis, the Indonesian government has strived to restore fiscal health, and vs. GDP,

fiscal deficits have been suppressed to the 1% range. Such efforts by the government for financial reconstruction

and financial growth have led to decreasing debt from 95% vs. GDP in 2000, to 26% in 2013. Debt between 20%

and 30%, when compared to neighboring ASEAN nations, is a low standard.

Table 1-3: Financial Trends of the Indonesian Government

Year Annual Revenue

(Trillion Rupiahs)

Annual

Expenditure

(Trillion

Rupiahs)

Fiscal

Balance

(Trillion

Rupiahs)

Fiscal Balance

to GDP Ratio

Total Outstanding

Debt

to GDP ratio

2000 203 231 -28 -2.00% 95.10%

2001 318 349 -32 -1.90% 80.20%

2002 324 335 -11 -0.60% 67.80%

2003 374 398 -24 -1.20% 60.50%

2004 439 445 -6 -0.30% 55.80%

2005 539 526 13 0.50% 46.30%

2006 685 672 14 0.40% 39.00%

2007 764 805 -41 -1.00% 35.10%

2008 1,053 1,050 3 0.10% 33.20%

2009 925 1,024 -99 -1.80% 28.60%

2010 1,074 1,159 -85 -1.30% 26.10%

2011 1,336 1,383 -47 -0.60% 24.40%

2012 1,486 1,623 -137 -1.70% 24.00%

2013 1,632 1,823 -190 -2.10% 26.10%

2014 -1,774 -2,023 248 (-2.5 %) 26.2 %)

Estimates are in parentheses


1-5

Relationship between the Republic of Indonesia and Japan ④

The Republic of Indonesia is also known for its policy of cooperation with Japan, and has continued a politically

and economically close relationship with Japan. The Republic of Indonesia's major trade partners are listed on

Table 1-4. Japan, following China and Singapore, is the 3rd import partner. With regards to exports, Japan is the

biggest trade partner. Major imported items from Japan include general machinery, electric equipment,

transportation equipment, etc., and major exports to Japan include oil, natural gases, copper ore and natural

rubber.

For the Republic of Indonesia, Japan is the largest donor country, and in terms of cumulative amount, is the largest

recipient of ODA from Japan. In 2011, Japan loaned 73.9 billion yen based on an Exchange of Notes and a grant

aid of one billion yen. Furthermore, cost performance-based technical cooperation such as JICA achievements was

9.1 billion yen. However, following the economic development, after 2009 the amount of ODA loans has shown a

downward trend.

Table 1-4: Major Trade Partners of the Republic of Indonesia

Import Export

Country

Amount

(Million

Dollars)

Constituent

Ratio Country

Amount

(Million

Dollars)

Constituent

Ratio

China 29,850 16.00% Japan 27,086 14.80%

Singapore 25,582 13.70% China 22,602 12.40%

Japan 19,285 10.30% Singapore 16,686 9.10%

Malaysia 13,323 7.10% USA 15,692 8.60%

Korea 11,593 6.20% India 13,031 7.10%

Thailand 10,703 5.70% Korea 11,423 6.30%

USA 9,066 4.90% Malaysia 10,667 5.80%

Saudi Arabia 6,526 3.50% Thailand 6,062 3.30%

Australia 5,038 2.70% Taiwan 5,862 3.20%

Germany 4,426 2.40% Australia 4,371 2.40%

India 3,964 2.10% Holland 4,106 2.20%

France 1,591 0.90% Germany 2,883 1.60%

Total

(including others)

(CIF)

186,631 100.00% Total

(including others)

(FOB)

182,568 100.00%

Source: Prepared by the Investigation Team based on the Japan External Trade Organization website

1-6

Table 1-5: Japan's Records Annually and by Aid

(Units: hundred million yen)

Year ODA Grant Aid Technical

Cooperation

Technical

Cooperation

(Including JICA

achievements)

2001 908.19 72.63 149.36 113.22

2002 889.39 72.96 145.55 106.32

2003 1,046.34 50.16 123.91 91.01

2004 1,148.29 185.43 120.66 79.87

2005 930.05 63.32 108.63 85.22

2006 1,252.34 53.71 104.04 77.85

2007 1,060.03 66.64 87.62 61.12

2008 1,205.99 28.47 88.7 62.52

2009 1,139.44 33.02 98.67 81.05

2010 438.77 37.28 112.42 85.89

2011 739.42 10.13 97.97 92.47

2012 154.9 60.97 Unaggregated 61.68

Source: Prepared by Investigation Team from ODA Data Book by Nation (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan)

1-7

Project Target Sector Overview (2)

Actual state of the road traffic sector ①

Number of registered automobiles a)

In the Republic of Indonesia, in conjunction with the increase of the middle class resulting from economic

development, the use of two wheeled vehicles increased by 1.8 times in 5 years. In addition, the number of

registered passenger cars has also increased at the rate of 1.5 times in 5 years and given the increase of the

population and economic development, this upward trend of the number of registered automobiles is expected to

continue (Table 1-6, Figure 1-1).

Table 1-7 and Figure 1-2 show the transition of the number of registered automobiles in Jakarta. Although the

overall upward trend remains unchanged, it can be seen that the ratio of motor cycles is small and the ratio of the

ownership of four wheeled vehicles is high.

Table 1-6: Transition of the number of registered automobiles in Indonesia

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Passenger car 770 811 889 955 1,043 1,148

Bus 214 224 225 225 227 229

Truck 457 461 469 496 529 562

Motor cycles 4,768 5,243 6,108 6,884 7,638 8,473

Total 6,209 6,739 7,691 8,560 9,437 10,412

[Unit: ten thousand cars]

Source: 2008-2009: Statistical Year Book of Indonesia 2011,

2010: Statistical Year Book of Indonesia 2013

2011-2013: Statistical Year Book of Indonesia 2014 (Estimated figures for 2013)

1-8

Figure 1-1: Transition of the number of registered automobiles in Indonesia




Table 1-7: Transition of the number of registered automobiles in Jakarta

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Passenger car 190 197 230 250 277 304

Bus 50 50 52 52 53 53

Truck 67 68 70 74 78 83

Motor Cycles 628 654 726 821 921 1,033

Total 935 970 1,077 1,197 1,328 1,473

[Unit: ten thousand cars]




1-9

Figure 1-2: Transition of the number of registered automobiles in Jakarta




Actual state of road infrastructure b)

The total length of Indonesian public roads is estimated at 500,000 km as of 2013 and most of them are

prefectural roads (Figure 1-3). While the construction of roads is progressing, half of the roads are still unpaved

roads and safety and traffic congestion caused by damages of the road surface have become the issue. Further, due

to poor drainage capacity, flood on roads is found in various places in the rainy season resulting into traffic

congestion and safety issue.

With respect to toll roads, construction under private investment is progressing and those roads are developed

compared with public roads. The total length of toll roads operated is 742 km as of 2013 representing an average

increase of 2% from 2008 (Figure 1-4).

1-10

Figure 1-3: Total length of Indonesian public roads




Figure 1-4: Total length of Indonesian toll roads

Source: Euromonitor

Table 1-8 shows the outline of the business of Indonesian major toll road operators. Jasa Marga, a nation-owned

privately managed company 70% of whose shares are owned by the nation, has the share of around 74% of all

operated kilometers. Each operator executes a concession agreement with the government and is developing its

toll road business. The operators’ utmost concern is the security of profit from the increase of users and they are

promoting continuous improvement of the service quality for such purpose.

1-11

Table 1-8: State of Indonesian major toll road operators

Major highway operators

Operated

km

Volume of

the traffic on

the section

Total sales of

the section *

[km] [million cars] [million rupiah]

PT. JASA MARGA 560 1,260 10,295,000

PT. Astra International Tbk 72.5 40.8 193,880,000

PT. Nusantara Infrastructure Tbk 34.5 87.7 425,861

PT. CITRA MARGA NUSAPHALA

PERSADA TBK 27 103 962,564

*Sales include those from businesses other than the highway road business.

Source: Prepared by the Investigation Team based on the Annual Report (2013) of each operator

Actual state of ITS infrastructure and the provision of traffic information c)

ITS infrastructure for toll roads is to be developed mainly by each road operator. Jasa Marga, which is the biggest

road operator in Indonesia, is promoting the collection of traffic information using surveillance cameras (CCTV:

Closed Circuit Television) and remote traffic microwave sensors (RTMS: Remote Traffic Microwave Sensor) and

the provision of traffic information using variable message signs (VMS: Variable Message Sign). It has also

independently established a traffic information center and provides information not only by VMS but also using

its website and telephones1. The development plan for this ITS infrastructure has been presented from Jasa Marga

under which the installation of VMS in 70 places, the installation of 315 CCTVs and the installation of RTMS in

55 places were planned to be effected by 2017 (Table 1-9).

Collection and provision of traffic information of public roads is managed by the national police and the Ministry

of Transport through the National Traffic Management Center (NTMC). Currently, RTMS system in 8 regions

(South Sumatra, Special Region of Yogyakarta, West Java, Central Java, Jogjakarta, East Java, Bali and West

Kalimantan) and CCTV cameras in 227 places are operated together. Information collected is publicly provided

via websites, Twitter, SMS and mass media and also utilized for the traffic regulation by the police.

The service of the provision of traffic information by private sector includes that by LewatMana.com ™2, a private

independent provider, applications such as WAZE3 which collects and provides traffic information through

word-of-mouth communication and traffic information provided by Google.

1 http://www.jasamargalive.com/

2 http://lewatmana.com/

3 https://www.waze.com/

1-12

Table 1-9: Information provision infrastructure development plan of Jasa Marga

Infrastructure

installed 2011 2012 2013 2014-2017

VMS 24 36 50 70

CCTV 200 236 276 315

RTMS 26 30 35 55

Source: Jasa Marga’s Annual report 2012

Issues for road traffic sector ②

As mentioned in the previous paragraph, in relation to the number of registered four wheeled vehicles excluding

two wheeled vehicles, the development of public roads is progressing only at the rate of 1.16 times in 2008

compared with 1.35 times in the entire Indonesia, meaning an absolute lack of road infrastructure. Indonesia is

said to be a traffic issue developed country in Southeast Asia and especially traffic congestion in urban areas has

become a major issue.

The promotion of ITS is effective as a means to resolve the issue of traffic congestion by improving the efficiency

of the movement of vehicles. However, in Indonesia, the actual situation is that the information is provided

individually by private operators and each government agency using ITS infrastructure individually developed

and any comprehensive collection and provision of traffic information is not yet implemented. The Technology

Evaluation Application Agency which is in charge of the technical support for ITS is also considering this point as

an issue to be resolved and has expressed its intent to promote the integration of the systems individually

developed.

Moreover, the information which relies on such traffic information as that from Twitter, SMS and word‐of‐

mouth communication has problem in term of the accuracy of the information and is confined to the provision of

pin point congestion information and CCTV image. The lack of highly reliable congestion information with

completeness and high value added information such as travel times, congestion forecast and weather information

is also the issue.

1-13

Condition of the Target Area (3)

Makassar City Overview ①

Makassar City, the project implementation site, is located on the southwest section of the island of Sulawesi, in

the province of South Sulawesi, and is home to a population of 1.33 million (as of 2010), making it Indonesia's

10th largest city (Table 1-10). It has an area of 176 square kilometers, and is the provincial capital of South

Sulawesi.

Hasanuddin Airport, located in the northeast of Makassar, not only connects to locations such as the capital of

Jakarta or Indonesia's 2nd largest city of Surabaya, and Bali, but is also an international airport with flights

connecting with Singapore and Kuala Lumpur. Furthermore, in the southwest is Makassar port, which has

prospered from the past until today as a key point in maritime transportation, and is the center of both air transport

and maritime transport (Figure 1-5).

Major industries include commerce, manufacturing, and service industries, and the city is a location where locally

sourced marine and agricultural products gather. Furthermore, the northern section of the island of Sulawesi is

blessed with abundant mineral resources.

With the mayor as a central figure, Makassar has embraced a Smart City initiative, and is showing a

forward-thinking attitude in advancing to IT for medical welfare and maintenance of infrastructure. In particular,

the city is planning measures to mitigate traffic congestion by methods such as establishing public transportation

connecting the city and the airport.

Table 1-10: Representative Cities of Indonesia and Populations (As of 2010)

Province City Population (Persons)

Special Region of Jakarta DKI Jakarta 9,607,787

East Java Surabaya 2,765,487

West Java Bandung 2,394,873

West Java Bekasi 2,334,871

North Sumatra Medan 2,097,610

Banten Tangerang 1,798,601

West Java Depok 1,738,570

Central Java Semarang 1,555,984

South Sumatra Palembang 1,455,284

South Sulawesi Makassar 1,327,762

Source: Prepared by Investigation Team via Statistics Indonesia Population of Indonesia by Village 2010

1-14

Figure 1-5: Peripheral Situation of Makassar


Road Traffic Sector Conditions of Makassar ②

As shown in Figure 1-5, there are total two toll roads from Makassar port, namely, semi-annular harbor road and

airport road connecting the city and the airport, and there are several transport vehicles plying from the port. There

are two special purpose companies that manage each of these two roads. Table 1-11 shows operation route

distance, traffic volume, and management companies of these two roads. For both these management company,

Margautama Nusantara (MUN) is the parent company, which in turn is a subsidiary company of Nusantara

Infrastructure and which manages all toll roads for MUN.

In both routes, the traffic volume has increased by 10% compared to the previous year.

It is a 2-lane road, and is complete with guidance displays and lighting.

Table 1-11: Toll Roads in Makassar

Route Operating Distance

[km] Traffic Volume (2013) Management Company

Harbor 5.95 54,035 Cars/Day

(Year-on-year+11.92%)

PT BOSOWA MARGA NUSANTARA

Airport 11.57 35,574 Cars/Day

(Year-on-year+15.83%)

PT JALAN TOL SEKSI EMPAT

Source: Prepared by Investigation Team via the Nusantara Infrastructure Yearly Report 2013

Airport

Harbor

Makassar City

Toll Road

(Harbor Route)

Toll Road

(Airport Route)

Northern City

District

Industrial Complex

Hasanuddin University

Residential Area


1-15

Table 1-12 shows the tolls for Airport roads as of 2013. Tolls are collected at the entrance, and the fees are

uniform throughout the route. The rates are divided into 5 categories, depending on the number of axles.

Table 1-12: Tolls for Airport roads (As of 2013)

Price Category Vehicle Type Toll

(Rupiah)

Category I Passenger cars, small trucks, busses

(single-tire only)

7,500

Category II Twin-axle truck (double tire) 11,000

Category III 3-axle truck 15,000

Category IV 4-axle truck 18,500

Category V 5-axle truck 22,000


Table 1-13 and Figure 1-6 display the trends of registered vehicle numbers in South Sulawesi. Not only are there

triple the number of motorcycles to cars, but they are doubling every 4 years. General roads in the town are

overflowing with motorcycles, which are adding to the traffic congestion.

Table 1-13: Trends of Registered Vehicles in South Sulawesi

Year Passenger

Cars Busses Trucks Motorcycles Total Note

2008 232,531 127,574 257,696 1,007,412 1,625,213 2011 Statistics

2009 294,636 135,265 260,560 1,146,216 1,836,677 2011 Statistics

2010 280,662 140,468 267,636 1,784,875 2,473,641 2013 Statistics

2011 298,398 140,727 283,162 2,057,474 2,779,761 2014 Statistics

2012 315,280 140,932 295,631 2,297,145 3,048,988 2014 Statistics

2013 346,713 141,059 308,142 2,518,839 3,314,753 2014 Statistics (Estimated)

Source: Statistic Year Book of Indonesia

1-16

Figure 1-6: Registered Vehicles in South Sulawesi

Source: Prepared by Investigation Team via Statistic Year Book of Indonesia

Traffic Conditions in Makassar ③

The general road connecting the city with the airport runs parallel to the toll road connecting the city with the

airport. Along the national road, residential areas, universities, industrial complexes, various government related

institutions, and supermarkets stand beside one another, and depending on the time of day, heavy traffic occurs.

Figure 1-7 is a comparison of the parallel toll and general roads and their respective traffic volume, average

required time, and average speed based on actual measurements. The general road sees double the traffic volume

and quadruple the required time compared to toll roads. Because the toll roads have more room to spare in their

volume, it can be thought that leveling out the traffic volume between general and toll roads is effective in

mitigating total traffic congestion and energy consumption.

1-17

Figure 1-7: Traffic Conditions in Makassar

Source: Quoted from NEDO Final Report (FY2013) The Feasibility Study for Demonstration Project of

International Energy Consumption Efficiency Technology and System “The present state analysis relating to the

possibility of the introducing Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) aiming at alleviating urban traffic congestion

(Indonesia)”

Wireless Communication Status in Makassar ④

For the realization of ITS, securing communications environments for various sensors is important. In particular,

in a situation where wired communication infrastructure is unestablished, communications via mobile wireless

networks is critical.

In the Investigative Report from the past fiscal year regarding ITS (NEDO FY2013 The Feasibility Study for

Demonstration Project of International Energy Consumption Efficiency Technology and System “The present

state analysis relating to the possibility of the introducing Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) aiming at alleviating

urban traffic congestion (Indonesia)”, all areas of Makassar are covered by 3G networks. Furthermore, the 3 major

carriers in Indonesia, Telkomsel, Indosat, and XL Axiata provide sufficient services.

Approximately 15kmSmall: 28,156 vehicles / day

Large: 11,825 vehicles / day

Small: 40,011 vehicles / day

Large: 20,048 vehicles / day

Duration: Approximately 42 minutes



Approximately 10km



Chapter 2 Study Methodology

2-1

Investigation Content (1)

Purpose of Investigation ①

To develop a cooperative framework with the government of Indonesia for the implementation of the project, and

the selection of Makassar city in Indonesia and examine the expected specific effects and the validity of a business

model via traffic information provision.

Investigation Overview ②

Establish a Cooperative Framework with the Government of Indonesia for Project Implementation a)

Visit several local government institutions such as the Ministry of Public Works and Toll Road Agency, which

exercises jurisdiction over toll roads, at least 3 times, explain the projected effects of the project, gain an

understanding of the needs of the local government, and identify a local government institution where establishing

a cooperative framework for implementing the ITS project is possible.

Clarifying the Market Size for Traffic Information Provision Service Business b)

For the realization of the traffic information provision service business, investigate the market size of the business

by creating a list of expected clients and establishing a service unit price based on interviews.

With regards to the investigation itself, it will be carried out widely in addition to the project implementation site,

but also includes Jakarta and Surabaya where the business will be deployed after the project is over.

Establishing a Business Model c)

Through close investigation of the costs required for the management of the business, and establishing a business

operation scheme, establish a business model coinciding with the investigation of the market size, and examine

the validity. Furthermore, discuss with related institutions (local partner corporations) the establishment of a joint

company which will be expected to handle the actual business management and consider plan development aimed

for commercialization.

Evaluate the Feasibility of the Project d)

Investigate and evaluate the feasibility of the project from technical, environmental society, and financial aspects.

Examination of Technical Aspects i)

This project will establish a system to provide various types of traffic information to users by combining data

from sensors, which will be a fixed infrastructure on the roadside, gathering traffic information and weather

information, with probe sensors installed on vehicles to collect location information.

2-2

Analyze the competitive advantage regarding services related to traffic information already provided, and

individual elemental technologies. Furthermore, clarify the applicable technology and system issues, propose

solutions, and develop a plan for project implementation.

With this, also introduce applications on a trial basis, which will be one of the service products to local

cooperating companies and examine the effects and issues.

Examination of the Environmental and Social Aspects ii)

Evaluate and examine the addition to the natural environment, local residents and local communities in

accordance with the guidelines related to environmental and social consideration. Additionally, carry out

quantitative analysis of the expected reduction effects of greenhouse gasses due to the introduction of ITS.

Examination of the Financial and Economic Feasibility iii)

Estimate the business expenses of the project implementation. Furthermore, based on the estimated business

expenses, calculate FIRR, EIRR, NPV, and B/C, and evaluate expected financial and economic feasibility.

2-3

Investigation Method and Systems (2)

Domestic Investigation ①

Proceed with the investigation utilizing domestic and international existing documents and information published

online, as well as findings and information owned by various study teams. Examine the business model, economic

and social aspects, technical aspects, and financial and economic feasibility based on information acquired from

the local investigation.

Local Investigation ②

Consultation with the Government of Indonesia to Establish a Cooperative Framework for Project a)

Implementation

Explain the significance and effects of introducing ITS to related Indonesian government ministries, and select an

adequate ministry as a counterpart for project implementation. Major visits will be as follows:

National Development Planning Agency

Ministry of Public Works Directorate General of Roads

Ministry of Public Works Directorate General of Toll road

Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology

Proceed with discussions to construct a cooperative framework by focusing on the division of roles between Japan

and Indonesia, as well as continuity of operations after the project finishes, and management and operation of the

introduced system, etc.

Consultation toward a cooperative project policy with Indonesian businesses b)

Carry out interviews with local toll road businesses, and businesses that relate to traffic such as logistics and taxis,

and investigate the needs for introducing ITS and information provision. Visits will be made to the following 2

companies.

Local toll road business (Margautama Nusantara)

Local taxi business

Margautama Nusantara is the company that manages Makassar's toll roads, where the project will be implemented.

In addition to discussing the location and method of various sensors will install in toll road, discuss the business

model and business implementation structure as a partner for business development after the project is over. For

the taxi business A, provide an application on a trial basis for operation management, and validate its

effectiveness.

2-4

Market Research of Traffic Information Provision Service Business c)

Investigate the needs and marketability of the traffic information provision service business in Makassar, the

project implementation site, and Jakarta and Surabaya, the projected business development site, by visiting

administrative agencies and corporations. The expected customer segments are as follows:

Taxi Operators

Logistics Companies

Content Providers

Advertising Agencies

Industrial Complex Management Companies

Situation Investigation of Traffic Information Provision d)

Carry out a situation investigation of traffic information provision in Makassar, Jakarta, and Surabaya. Investigate

conditions and issues related to ITS by visiting traffic control centers and discussing with related personnel.

Investigation Framework ③

The implementation framework for investigations is as follows.

2-5

Figure 2-1: Implementation Framework of Investigation

# Project manager

Omron Social Solutions

Naito

# In charge of economic and financial analysis

Japan Research Institute for Social Systems

Nishida, Yoshida, Ohta, Morimoto, Tsujimoto

# In charge of technology

West Nippon Expressway Company

Adachi, Saita

# In charge of environmental and social analysis

The Institute of Behavioral Science

Nishimura, Makimura, Kinuta, Oka, Hino, Ebisu, Kasuya

In charge of local activities

Omron Asia Pacific

Asakura, Kokumai

In charge of collection of local information and project

management

Omron Social Solutions

Ohsio, Nakamura, Kawamura

2-6

Investigation Schedule (3)

Total Schedule of Investigations ①

The total schedule of investigations is as follows.

Table 2-1: Investigation Schedule

2014

September

October

November

December

2015

January

February

(Local Investigation)

1) 1st Local Investigation

2)2nd

Local Investigation

3)3rd

Local Investigation

(Domestic Work)

1) Market Research

2)Technology Research

3)Environmental

Analysis

4) Economic Analysis

5) System Construction

Plan Development

6) Develop Report

7) Meeting

+ Kick-off meeting (Sep. 30th)

+ Submit a draft (Jan.15th)

Final submission (Feb. 27th) +

Oct. 20th-30th

Dec. 1st-7th

Jan. 26th-30th

+ Interim report (Dec. 25th)

+ 1st report (Nov. 18th)

Final report (Feb. 9th) +

2-7

Domestic Investigations ②

Investigations were made based on the following documents, materials, and internet information.

Preceding Investigation Report a)

FY2011 private sector infrastructure projects formation, etc. investigation “Jakarta, Indonesia

Next-Generation Road Traffic Information System Business” investigative report (Ministry of Economy,

Trade and Industry)

FY2013 Energy supply and demand mitigation type infrastructure system dissemination promotion

business

“Feasibility Study on the Introduction of Smart Community Technology for Strengthening the Tourism

Industry in Bali Province, Republic of Indonesia” investigative report (Ministry of Economy, Trade and

Industry)

Final Report (FY2013) The Feasibility Study for Demonstration Project of International Energy

Consumption Efficiency Technology and System “The present state analysis relating to the possibility of

the introducing Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) aiming at alleviating urban traffic congestion

(Indonesia)” (Independent administrative agency New Energy and Industrial Technology Development

Organization: NEDO)

Indonesia-Related Laws and Regulations b)

Undang-Undang(UU) Law No.38-2004 regarding Road

Peraturan Pemerintah(PP) Government Regulation No.32-2001

Indonesian Presidential Decree No. 71, 2011 (Inventory management of greenhouse gases)

Statistics c)

Indonesia Central Bureau of Statistics

Population of Indonesia

Statistical Year Book of Indonesia

World Economic Outlook Database, October 2014

Japan External Trade Organization website

Other Materials d)

Mizuho Research Institute Mizuho Insight "Adverse effects of fuel subsidiary in Indonesia" (March 26,

2014)

Mitsubishi UFJ Research and Consulting Research Report "Current state of Indonesian economy and

future prospects) (October 16, 2014)

Official Development Assistance national data book

Japan Bank for International Cooperation JBICI Research Paper No.26 "Public Finance and Debt

Sustainability in Indonesia Structure - Policy Effects and Simulation Analysis-)"(December 2013)

Annual reports of main Indonesian toll road companies

2-8

Local Investigation ③

A total of 3 local investigations were carried for this study. The schedule and overview are as shown.

1st Local Investigation a)

The 1st local investigation was carried out between October 20th to October 30th, 2014. The visitation record is as

follows.

Table 2-2: Consultation with Local Government Agencies

Visitation Date Visitation Site Remarks

October 21, 2014 Toll Road Authority (BPJT) Responsible for the management of

toll roads

October 21, 2014 Agency for the Assessment and

Application of Technology (BPPT)

Responsible for governmental

technology research and technical

support

October 22, 2014 Ministry of Public Works (PU) Responsible for general road

administration

October 22, 2014 Directorate General of Highways Roads

October 30, 2014 Agency for the Assessment and

Application of Technology

Police

Department of Transportation

Directorate General of Highways

Toll Road Authority

Joint consultative of ministries and

agencies involved in ITS

Table 2-3: Consultation with Local Partner Companies


October 20, 2014 Nusantara Infrastructure Tbk The parent company of PT

Margautama Nusantara, which

manages toll roads

October 22, 2014 PT Margautama Nusantara Manages toll roads in Makassar

October 22, 2014 Taxi company Taxi company in Makassar

October 23, 2014 Taxi company

October 24, 2014 Taxi company

2-9

Table 2-4: Visitations to Institutions Related to the Japanese Government

Visitation Date Visitation Site

October 20, 2014 JETRO Jakarta

October 20, 2014 The Embassy of Japan in Indonesia

October 21, 2014 JICA INDONESIA OFFICE

October 23, 2014 Consular-Office of Japan in Makassar

Table 2-5: Needs Investigations of Anticipated Customers


October 21, 2014 Advertising agencies Needs Assessment (Jakarta)

October 21, 2014 Mobile carriers Needs Assessment (Jakarta)

October 22, 2014 Car rental companies Needs Assessment (Jakarta)

October 22, 2014 Mobile carriers Needs Assessment (Jakarta)

October 27, 2014 Taxi companies Needs Assessment (Jakarta)

October 27, 2014 Logistics companies Needs Assessment (Jakarta)

October 27, 2014 Bus operators Needs Assessment (Jakarta)

October 27, 2014 Trading companies Needs Assessment (Jakarta)

October 28, 2014 Taxi companies Needs Assessment (Jakarta)

October 29, 2014 Content providers Needs Assessment (Jakarta)

October 29, 2014 Airport management

companies

Needs Assessment (Jakarta)

October 30, 2014 Logistics companies Needs Assessment (Jakarta)

October 30, 2014 Advertising agencies Needs Assessment (Jakarta)

October 23, 2014 Taxi companies Needs Assessment (Makassar)

October 23, 2014 Car rental companies Needs Assessment (Makassar)

October 23, 2014 Industrial complex

management companies

Needs Assessment (Makassar)

October 24, 2014 Logistics companies Needs Assessment (Makassar)

October 24, 2014 Industrial complex

management company

Needs Assessment (Makassar)

2-10

2nd Local investigation b)

The second local survey was carried out during the period from December 1 to 7. The result of the visit is shown

below.

Table 2-6: Consultation with local government agency

Date of the visit Destination of the visit Remark

December 1, 2014 National Police

National Traffic Management

Center

In charge of the regulation of

internal traffic.

Inspection also of the Traffic

Management Center

December 1, 2014 Technology Evaluation

Application Agency(BPPT)

Implementation of prior

consultation before visiting the

Office of the Minister of

Coordination in Charge of

Economy

December 1, 2014 Road General Bureau (Bina

Marga)

Implementation of prior

consultation before visiting the

Office of the Minister of

Coordination in Charge of

Economy

December 4, 2014 RTMC Traffic management center of the

police which remotely monitor

Surabaya city

December 4, 2014 Traffic Management Center of the

Ministry of Transport

Management center which

manages surveillance camera

image

Table 2-7: Consultation with local cooperative companies


December 1, 2014 PT Nusantara Infrastructure Implementation of consultation on

roles in implementing the project

December 4, 2014 Taxi company Report of the result of the analysis

relating to systems carried out in

October, etc.

2-11

Table 2-8: Survey on the needs conducted at expected customers


December 2, 2014 Mass media Needs survey (Jakarta)

December 3, 2014 Television station Needs survey (Jakarta)

December 4, 2014 Logistics operator Needs survey (Jakarta)

December 4, 2014 Logistics operator Needs survey (Makassar)

December 5, 2014 Industrial park management company Needs survey (Surabaya)

December 5, 2014 Rental car company Needs survey (Surabaya)

3rd Local investigation c)

3rd field survey was conducted from January 26 to January 30, 2015. Mainly, we reported the outcomes of this

survey. Following table shows the details of our visits.

Table 2-9: Consultation with local agency

Visit date Institution visited Remarks

January 26, 2015 JETRO Jakarta Reporting the outcomes of this

survey

Checking the future schedule

January 26, 2015 The Embassy of Japan in Indonesia Reporting the outcomes of this

survey


January 27, 2015 Agency for the Assessment and Application

of Technology (BPPT)

Reporting the outcomes of this

survey


January 27, 2015 Road General Bureau (Bina Marga) Reporting the outcomes of this

survey


January 28, 2015 PT Nusantara Infrastructure Tbk Reporting the outcomes of this

survey


January 29, 2015 Bandung Institute of Technology (Institut

Teknologi Bandung)

Reporting the outcomes of this

survey

Chapter 3 Justification, Objectives and Technical

Feasibility of the Project

3-1

Project Background and Necessity (1)

Project Background ①

In Indonesia, transport demand caused by rapid economic growth and increase in population are deepening the

societal problems of frequent traffic congestion and traffic accidents. Additionally, in 2011 Indonesia issued a

presidential order (Numbers 61 and 71 of 2011) in regard to an action plan reducing greenhouse gas emission and

inventory management of greenhouse gasses, addressing the global issue of global warming due to transport

demand.

Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) use the data collected from sensors and other sources to appropriately regulate

the flow of traffic, easing traffic congestion and reducing the greenhouse has from it, and acting as an effecting

method for traffic accident reduction. In emergent nations such as Indonesia where the infrastructure necessary for

ITS is not adequately in place, it is important that the spread of ITS is promoted by making effective use various

data sources such as already-installed traffic-level sensors and weather sensors, minimizing initial cost. An

effective traffic information provision system is required which combines already common GPS information with

data that can be gained from sensors already in place. Although an emerging traffic information provision service

has been started, issues of information accuracy and additional value in information indicate as of yet unrealized

possibilities.

With the large market of Indonesia’s population of 240 million, it is expected that establishment of the country’s

ITS infrastructure will proceed at a swift pace. The impact and improving effect of ITS integration on traffic

issues is great in comparison with neighboring countries. It is also considered that projects in Indonesia, a

developed Southeast Asian nation in terms of traffic issues, could serve as a litmus test for lateral developments

into other Southeast Asian nations. While making use of Japan’s developed ITS technology and know-how, and

improving the perception of Japanese system technology in Indonesia, it is necessary that we contribute to

economic development in the country.

Project Overview ②

A system will be used to consolidate, analyze, and provide various data gained not only from image sensors

reading traffic conditions and types of probe sensors reading the positions of individual vehicles, but also from

sources such as weather sensors stationed around roads, with the final objective of structuring the business model

for a traffic information provision service in Indonesia.

The project site will be in Makassar, Indonesia, and several dozen sensors and 4 information provision panels will

be installed on toll roads and general roads in Makassar, and distributed to approximately 700 smartphone devices,

and introduce a cloud server system to integrate, analyze, and provide the data. A service business will be realized

that provides information such as traffic congestion, estimated travel time, accidents and road works, and weather,

etc. as the acquired information contents.

3-2

Through this system, overall optimization of traffic flow in order to reduce traffic congestion by controlling the

movement of drivers will be sought.

Figure 3-1: Intelligent traffic system sought by the project


The Service and Business Model Provided by the Project ③

The business model for the traffic information provision service to be realized in this project is displayed in Figure

3-2. To minimize the large investment necessary to enable the infrastructure for ITS implementation, data from

probe sensors requiring little investment cost will be used, and data obtained from one sensor will be put to

multiple uses, effectively diffusing investment cost. The center of the suggested business model is an ITS core

system made from the consistently collected and analyzed data from various sensors. In order to aim for the

spread of traffic information provision service in Indonesia, consideration will be given to forming an operating

agent as a joint project between Japanese businesses and Indonesian businesses.

As expressed in the figure, the following consumer classes are anticipated.

・ Businesses seeking to improve their business efficiency and service by using traffic information, such as

distribution companies and taxi companies.

・ Businesses seeking to enhance their information contents by transmitting traffic and weather information,

such as mass media, automobile companies, and cellular service providers.

・ Organizations seeking to use traffic information in the planning of policies, urban planning, and maintenance

planning, such as government, consultants, and academic organizations.

In this study a hearing was held to determine specific needs and service prices of the anticipated consumer classes,

progressing with a quantitative demand projection and market scale estimation. Details are listed in (3) 1) of this

Chapter.

3-3

Figure 3-2: Services and Business Models Provided by the Project


Problems anticipated if the Project is Not Implemented and Effects and Influence of the Project ④

As expressed in Chapter 1, the Republic of Indonesia has shown an increase in its number of cars in response to a

rapidly developing economy. If the move towards road efficiency through ITS does not progress, fuel

consumption and the environmental effects of increasing greenhouse gas will grow markedly. These

environmental influences and effects of project implementation are quantitatively examined in Chapter 4.

The suggested project will collect and provide traffic data so that drivers may independently select their own route.

However, if the project makes the Republic of Indonesia aware of the essential nature of ITS, and it progresses to

the stage of high-level traffic signal management, the benefits may be even greater than anticipated.

Comparison of Alternate Methods for the Suggested Project ⑤

The suggested project aims to optimize the traffic flow through collection and provision of traffic information

from ITS implementation, reduce energy consumption and greenhouse gas, thereby improving economic benefits

and seeking to secure further traffic safety.

In order to realize the aforementioned effects, such alternate methods as the following are thought to be possible.

It is of course possible to progress with them in tandem, attaining a synergetic effect, but from the viewpoint of

initial investment, the advantages of the suggested method are large.

3-4

Establishment of a public traffic organization a)

In Jakarta, establishment of railways and bus rapid transit (BRT) are progressing. Additionally, there is a monorail

establishment plan in place at the project site, Makassar. However, to make a BRT system function effectively,

inserting a dedicated lane and other such adjustments might exceed the capacity of preexisting roads. Railway

establishment also requires a large investment for such expenses as buying up necessary land.

Road infrastructure establishment b)

Road capacity in Jakarta has already become entirely inadequate, leading to chronic traffic congestion.

Establishment of road infrastructure is intended to progress in the future, but to make effective use of established

roads, it is necessary for the information provision suggested in the project to proceed in tandem with it.

Eco-car implementation c)

In developed countries, hybrid cars are becoming common, and the number of fuel-cell vehicles and electric

vehicles is increasing with support from the government. However, the hydrogen stations and charging equipment

require an infrastructure investment, so it can be inferred that in emerging nations, implementation of ecocars will

require some time.

Project Necessity ⑥

The selected project site, Makassar, as described in Chapter 1 article 3, is one of the few cities in Indonesia to

have over 1 million people, and boasts an appropriate economic scale, population, and traffic level for a project

site anticipating spread throughout all of Indonesia. Makassar has also enabled a “smart city” concept centered on

the mayor, so its needs are high for traffic flow optimization by establishment and information provision through

ITS. Toll roads and general roads connecting the city streets, airport, and north city area run side by side, but as

seen in the study results of traffic levels, it is an issue that the toll roads are not used effectively in comparison to

their capacity. Also, as with Jakarta’s toll roads, the current situation is that the establishment and traffic

information provision of ITS infrastructures such as CCTV and VMS. Current toll road businesses are aiming to

improve their services, so as to provide drivers with useful traffic information. Makassar has long been recognized

as an important point of marine travel, with many distribution vehicles going to and from the harbor. In the north

area there is a cement factory, and according to the hearing, the properties of cement are such that, like traffic

information, weather content such as rainfall information is in high demand.

For these reasons, the project will be implemented in Makassar, with its high needs for ITS implementation and

the added value held by traffic information, and investigation of the implementation effects to spread ITS to all

areas of Indonesia is considered necessary.

3-5

Advancement and Practicality of Energy Use (2)

The Indonesian government has, for the purpose of reducing the financial strain on the family budgets of citizens,

implemented a fuel financial aid system. In this, gasoline, light oil, kerosene, and other such petroleum products

are, compared to the international market price, sold at a reduced price. Although this fuel financial aid system

allows the Indonesian government to support economic development, economic development has led to increased

consumption levels of petroleum, causing the government budget to be overwhelmed each year.

This fuel financial aid is, based on 2014 statistics, consuming approximately 1/4 of the Indonesian government’s

1,230 trillion rupiah budget, and their largest expense (Figure 3-3). The government has made progressive

cutbacks to the financial aid in 1998, 2005, 2008, and 2013, however each time they do so riots and

demonstrations occur, making the issue a source of concern to the government. It is said that fuel subsidies greatly

benefit the wealthy people. Mr. Widodo, who became the first Indonesian president from the private sector in

October 2014 announced the reduction of fuel subsidies on November 17. With this, the retail price of gasoline

was raised from 6,500 Rupiah to 8,500 Rupiah, and the retail price of diesel oil was raised from 5,500 Rupiah to

7,500 Rupiah. While it is assessed that the official promise of reduction of fuel subsidies for fiscal consolidation

was implemented smoothly, increase in the retail prices increases the household burden of citizens, and it shows

that efficiently utilizing the fuel is going to be an important issue for the Republic of Indonesia.

Streamlining of logistics and transportation through the introduction of ITS is actually streamlining the use of

energy, and in addition to increasing time benefits, reduction of greenhouse gases, and reduction of fuel costs, it

has direct economic benefit for the government in terms of reduction of subsidy cost. Significance of this project

is to appeal the benefits by quantitatively demonstrating the economic benefits and promote the spread of ITS

throughout Indonesia.

Figure 3-3: Indonesia Central Government Expense Report (2014 fiscal year) (Units: trillion rupiah)

Source: Statistics Indonesia of the Republic of Indonesia

3-6

Investigations Necessary to Determine Project Contents, etc. (3)

Demand projection ①

Implementation of Market Study (BtoB market) a)

Implementation of hearing i)

A hearing was implemented with the following businesses as a BtoB market study.

Businesses in which BtoB service are applicable are divided among instances in which a) the business itself

becomes the customer of traffic information provision services, etc. and b) the business implements a secondary

service targeting general users. In instance a) in which the business itself is the customer, the applicable

businesses are mostly those possessing work vehicles such as taxis, trucks, and buses. In instance b) in which the

business implements a secondary service targeting general users, the applicable businesses are mostly those

implementing BtoC services such as transmission service providers and content providers. Additionally, the media

and advertising agencies may wish to use highly visible contents to increase their business revenue (media:

increase viewership, advertising agencies: advertising revenue).

Furthermore, a hearing was implemented with industrial complexes and airport management companies that are

locations of activity of multiple businesses belong in a), and considered to possess significant information on

multiple businesses.

3-7

Table 3-1: Hearing-implemented Businesses

Business Industry Location Hearing Date

a. Businesses that are

customers of traffic

information services

A Taxi Makassar October 23, 2014

B Taxi Jakarta October 27, 2014

C Taxi Jakarta October 28, 2014

D Distribution Makassar October 24, 2014

E Distribution Jakarta October 27, 2014

F Distribution Jakarta October 30, 2014

G Distribution Surabaya December 4, 2014

H Distribution (consignor) Jakarta October 22, 2014

I Car rental Jakarta October 22, 2014

J Car rental Makassar October 23, 2014

K Car rental Surabaya December 4, 2014

b. Businesses implementing

secondary information

transmission services

L Transmission service provider Jakarta October 21, 2014

M Transmission service provider Jakarta October 22, 2014

N Content provider Jakarta October 29, 2014

O Advertising agency Jakarta October 21, 2014

P Advertising agency Jakarta October 30, 2014

Q Radio station Jakarta December 2, 2014

R TV station Jakarta December 3, 2014

Other S Industrial complex Makassar October 23, 2014

T Industrial complex Makassar October 24, 2014

U Industrial complex Surabaya December 5, 2014

V Airport management company Jakarta October 29, 2014


Hearing results ii)

a. Businesses that are customers of traffic information services

In regard to traffic information provision services (BtoC, BtoB), it was confirmed that there are no added-value

services combining traffic and weather information offered in Indonesia, and that in Indonesia (particularly

Jakarta), where traffic congestion is a serious urban issue, it was confirmed that a large desire for such

added-value services.

Additionally, vehicle operation management services for taxis and trucks (BtoB) were described as highly

promising markets by the businesses surveyed in the hearing, and it was confirmed that they have significant

demand. Among the 9 companies that answered regarding usage cost, 6 answered that a budget of between 1000

and 4000 yen per car per month, exceeding the initially anticipated budget of 1000 yen per car per month, would

be possible.

3-8

GPS has already been installed on tens of thousands of service vehicles such as taxis. Those businesses, such as

major taxi businesses and distribution businesses, have indicated their willingness to provide probe data, thus

confirming that probe data can be obtained. The GS data of each company is currently only used in the operation

management of that company, so if information with added value such as travel time were to be provided, the

possibility was confirmed that the GPS data provided by each company could be accepted.

b. Businesses implementing secondary information transmission services

Major cellular service providers indicated their willingness to participate and cooperate in the project.

Transmission-related offers such as of SIM cards and support from a special team were received. Content

providers indicated their willingness to participate and cooperate in the project, and their interest in content

services using information provided from the suggested systems. It was confirmed that the business prospects for

the project are promising in Indonesia, where traffic congestion that is more serious than that of Japan.

Television stations and radio stations collect information from that provided by traffic management centers and

from short messages and telephones from viewers and listeners and are willing positively to work for the

provision of traffic information utilizing ITS. It was confirmed that as the service of the provision of traffic

information utilizing ITS is not actually introduced, it is a future promising service. As establishment of

advertisements and signage along the road rapidly progresses, traffic information, with its importance to drivers, is

appealing content to the businesses that operate these mediums.

Among all the businesses surveyed in the hearing, there were many questions as to how the project is different

from already-established services such as Google’s traffic conditions and WAZE services. In response, we

explained that:

a) Google and WAZE, which rely only on probe data, would not be able to provide information in the event of a

typhoon, or other such instance where traffic levels are low, whereas the system of this project, using fixed sensors,

would be able to provide information even if roads are closed.

b) Google and WAZE do not announce the data source of their GPS, nor their basis for assessment of traffic

congestion, whereas the system of this project can provide raw data of location positioning of vehicles, meaning

that it is possible to provide the necessary information for traffic control such as prediction of necessary time,

prediction of traffic congestion, and signal control, which differentiates it from already-established services.

It was understood that these two points constitute a significant difference.

3-9

Implementation of the market research (BtoC market) b)

A market research has been carried out in Jakarta using questionnaires to grasp the needs for information on traffic

and weather among general drivers and the market scale.

Outline of the questionnaire survey i)

The questionnaire survey has been carried out under the following conditions to grasp the needs for the

information among users of general vehicles in Jakarta city area.

Number of subject persons: 100 persons

Subject area: within the commutable area in Jakarta city area

Attribute of subjects: men and women in the range of 20 to 50 years old who own a vehicle and

smartphones

Implementation period: December 2014

Survey method: questionnaire survey in the form of interviews at advanced shopping malls

Implementation venues:

Gandaria City Mall ・・・South Jakarta

Senayan City Mall ・・・Central Jakarta

Kelapa Gading Malll ・・・North Jakarta

Survey items

Basic attribute of respondents: age・gender・residence area

State of the ownership of vehicles

State of the ownership of mobile phones

Whether or not traffic information is obtained in going out and the method thereof

Whether or not weather information is obtained in going out and the method thereof

Whether or not applications relating to traffic information are used

Interest in applications relating to traffic information and weather information

Amount affordable as the payment for applications relating to traffic information and weather

method

Result of the questionnaire survey ii)

1. State of the use of vehicles

73 questionnaire respondents drive themselves every day without using a driver. 92 persons daily drive a vehicle

including those who drive at least once a week.

3-10

Figure 3-4: State of the use of vehicles among questionnaire respondents


2. Whether or not traffic information is obtained in going out and the method thereof

In response to the question “whether you are concerned about traffic information in going out”, over 80% of all

respondents answered that they were concerned about traffic information (congestion) including those concerned

in balance and thus it can be said that an overwhelmingly large number of persons are concerned about traffic

information. To note, the result was that there was no one who responded that he/she was not concerned including

“not concerned in balance.”

Figure 3-5: Response to the question “whether you are concerned about traffic information in going out”


Although being “concerned about traffic information”, many of drivers do not grasp traffic condition in advance

and only one person responded that “I consult (before going out).” Those responded “I do not consult in balance”

or “I cannot say either no or yes” totaled 67%.

Never (having a driver) Almost never (around once a month) Sometimes (around once a week) Only on weekend (having a driver for attending the office) Everyday (including for attending the office)

Drive oneself once a week to everyday 92%

Not at all concerned

Not concerned in balance

Cannot say yes or no

Concerned in balance

Extremely concerned

Unclear

3-11

Figure 3-6: Whether or not traffic information is grasped in going out


The top three methods used in consulting traffic information were radio (68%), internet (use of search engines,

etc.) (14%), internet (specific traffic information sites) (10%).

Figure 3-7: Method to grasp traffic information


3. Whether or not weather information is obtained in going out and the method thereof

In response to the question “whether you are concerned about weather information in going out”, around 40% of

all respondents answered that they are concerned about weather information (congestion) including those

concerned in balance. Although less than in the case of traffic information, large needs can be said to exist also for

weather information in that around 40% of drivers are concerned about weather.

Figure 3-8: Response to the question “whether you are concerned about weather information in going out”

Do not consult

Do not consult in balance


Consult in balance

Consult

Radio

Internet (Search engines, etc.) Internet (Specific traffic information sites)

Television news

To ask friends and family members (located around the destination)

Unclear

Not at all concerned

Not concerned in balance


Concerned in balance

Extremely concerned

Unclear

concerned about weather

information 39%

3-12


Similarly as for traffic information, although being “concerned about weather information”, many of drivers do

not grasp weather condition in advance and only one person responded that “I consult (before going out).” Those

responded “I do not consult in balance” or “I cannot say either no or yes” totaled 72%.

Figure 3-9: Whether or not weather information is grasped in going out


The top three methods used in consulting traffic information were radio (62%), internet(use of search engines,

etc.)(25%), internet(specific traffic information sites)(6%).

Figure 3-10: Method to grasp weather information


4. Whether or not applications relating to traffic information are used

76% of all respondents use applications to obtain traffic and weather information.

Do not consult

Do not consult in balance


Consult in balance

Consult

Do not consult, Cannot

say yes or no…72%

Radio

Internet (Search engines, etc.) Internet (Specific traffic information sites)

Television news

To ask friends and family members (located around the destination)

Unclear

3-13

Figure 3-11: State of the use of existing applications for obtaining traffic information


”Waze” is used by 43 persons representing over half (57%) of applications used to collect information on traffic

and weather.

Figure 3-12: Existing applications used


Among 76 persons who use applications relating to traffic and weather information, 31 persons (41%) responded

that as to the frequency of the use of traffic information applications, they use applications relating to traffic

information 5 days a week to every day.

Figure 3-13: Frequency of the use of applications


Do not use

Use

76 persons use existing applications

Everyday

Around 6 times a week




Around twice a week

Around once a week

Those who use 5 times or more a week: 31 persons

(41% of all persons using applications)

3-14

Regarding the timing to use applications, it became clear that overwhelmingly many persons responded “during

commutation” with 52 persons (68%) and by time zone, those who use in the morning were slightly more with 40

persons (53%) than those who use at noon or in the afternoon.

Figure 3-14: Timing to use applications relating to traffic and weather information


Among 76 persons who use applications to collect information on traffic and weather, 55 persons (73%)

responded that it became more convenient using applications including “convenient in balance” and therefore it

became clear that the information on traffic and weather was useful information for drivers during transfer.

Figure 3-15: Evaluation on applications used


5. Interest in applications relating to traffic information and weather information

Taking the data separately for those using applications and those who do not use applications with respect to the

satisfaction of traffic and weather information, the result showed that those using applications are more satisfied.

On the other hand, considering that no one responded as “extremely satisfied” and the top was “satisfied in

balance” in both types, it is considered that they are not fully satisfied with existing services and it is expected that

needs exist for further information among many drivers.

Noon

Morning

Afternoon

Noon

Morning

Afternoon

Noon

Morning

Afternoon

Noon

Morning

Only when driving

oneself

Only when raining

Always when going out

During trasport to the

office

Use when going to the office 52 persons

(53% of all persons using applications)

Not at all convenient

Not convenient in balance


Convenient in balance

Extremely convenient

3-15

Figure 3-16: Satisfaction for existing traffic and weather information


As the question was anew posed on whether or not interested in applications to collect information on traffic and

weather, it became clear that around half of drivers who did not use similar applications were interested.

Figure 3-17: Whether or not interested in applications relating to traffic and weather


6. Amount affordable as the payment for applications relating to traffic information and weather method

As the amount affordable for drivers as the payment for applications relating to traffic and weather was questioned,

it became clear that among drivers who did not then use services, many of those who were interested were willing

to be charged for applications if it was around 10,000 rupiah (about 100 yen/month).

Figure 3-18: Amount affordable for drivers as the payment for applications relating to traffic information (those

who do not use existing applications)


Extremely dissatisfied

Dissatisfied in balance


Satisfied in balance

Dissatisfied in balance


Satisfied in balance

Those who use

applications

Those who do

not use

applications

“Satisfied in balance” 16 persons

(66% of all persons who do not use

applications) “Dissatisfied in balance” 70 persons

(92% of all persons who use applications)

Already using

Do not use: Not interested

Interested

Not interested: Do not use if payable

IDR 10,000/month

Not using: Interseted: Do not use if paybale

IDR 100,000/month

IDR 50,000/month

IDR 30,000/month

IDR 20,000/month

IDR 10,000/month

IDR 5,000/month

IDR 2,000/month

3-16

Also among drivers using existing traffic information services, the top answer indicated around 10,000 rupiah

(about 100 yen/month). Many answers were also confirmed responding that depending on the content of the

information, even around 50,000 rupiah (about 500 yen/month) was affordable.

Figure 3-19: Amount affordable for drivers as the payment for applications relating to traffic information (those

who use existing services)


Estimation of the market scale c)

The scale of the market for the service of the provision of traffic and weather information and the service of car

dispatch management under this project is estimated based on the following presupposition. This project

contemplates the business in Makassar and Jakarta.

Taxi business i)

For taxi operators, it is contemplated to provide car dispatch management applications for taxis and traffic and

weather information intended for taxis. As to the usage fee, 6 companies responded 1,000 yen to 4,000 yen at the

hearing of taxi operators and logistics companies and this preliminary calculation sets the price at 2,000

yen/month/car. The numbers of taxis are those in Makassar and Jakarta.

Logistics business ii)

For logistics operators, it is contemplated to provide car dispatch management application for logistics and traffic

and weather information intended for logistics. The usage fee will be set at 2,000 yen/month/car similarly as for

taxi operators based on the result of the hearing. Regarding the number of trucks, 150,000 trucks are contemplated

to be for business use among 830,000 trucks in Jakarta. As the ratio of vehicles for business use is unavailable, the

ratio of business use in Japan of 18% was supposed. As the statistic of the number of trucks in Makassar is

unavailable, it was set at 19,000 trucks supposing that the level is identical to the number of trucks per one person

in Jakarta.

Do not use if paybale

IDR 100,000/month

IDR 50,000/month

IDR 30,000/month

IDR 20,000/month

IDR 10,000/month

IDR 5,000/month

IDR 2,000/month

3-17

General drivers iii)

Applications for traffic and weather information will be provided to general drivers. The usage fee will be set at

100 yen/month/car based on the result of the hearing carried out in shopping malls in Jakarta. The number of users

was set based on the smartphone usage rate of 14% and the population in the cities in Indonesia.

Mass media iv)

With respect to television stations and radio stations, currently traffic information is provided via short messages,

etc. from viewers and listeners and no traffic information utilizing ITS such as the one under this project is

provided, and the information on the usage fee of traffic information could neither be obtained. For such reasons,

it was set at 3 million yen/year/company referring to the fact that the monthly basic amount of the information

provision fee of the Japan Road Traffic Information Center was 170,000 yen to 340,000 yen (separately added

depending on the information provided). The quotation of the general advertisement cost for televisions in

Indonesia is around 300,000 yen for spot advertisement and therefore, it was judged that the bearing of the cost of

the usage fee of traffic and weather information was possible as it corresponded to 10 times of 30 seconds spot

advertisement per year. For companies in Makassar, the fee was set to 1 million yen/year/company due to the

small economic scale there compared with that in Jakarta.

Content providers v)

With respect to the service of the provision of traffic and weather information to content providers, the fee was

contemplated as the same level as that for mass media and thus set at 3 million yen/year/company.

Automobile companies and car navigation related companies vi)

With respect to the service of the provision of traffic and weather information to automobile companies and car

navigation related companies, the fee was contemplated as the same level as that for mass media and thus set at 3

million yen/year/company.

The result of the preliminary estimation of the market scale is shown in Figure 3-2. The market scale is

preliminarily estimated as 6.7 billion yen.

3-18

Table 3-2: Result of the preliminary calculation of the market scale

Makassar

Unit price Quantity Market scale

Operation management + traffic

information provision service

Taxi business 24 thousand ues/year/car 850 cars 0.02 billion yen

Logistics business 24 thousand ues/year/car 10,000 cars 0.46 billion yen

Traffic information provision

service

General driver 1.2 thousand ues/year/ person 178 thousand persons 0.21 billion yen

Mass media 3,000 thousand ues/year/company 5 companies 0.016 billion yen

Total 0.71 billion yen

Jakarta

Unit price Quantity Market scale

Operation management + traffic

information provision service

Taxi business 24 thousand ues/year/car 27,300 cars 0.66 billion yen

Logistics business 24 thousand ues/year/car 150,100 cars 3.6 billion yen

Traffic information provision

service

General driver 1.2 thousand ues/year/ person 1,396 thousand persons 1.68 billion yen

Mass media 3,000 thousand ues/year/company 20 companies 0.06 billion yen

Contents Provider 3,000 thousand ues/year/company 8 companies 0.02 billion yen

Automobile

company and car

navigation

3,000 thousand ues/year/company 5 companies 0.02 billion yen

Total 6.03 billion yen

Source: prepared by the survey group based on the hearing

3-19

Grasping and analysis of issues necessary in reviewing and deciding on the content of the project ②

The system to collect and provide comprehensive traffic information which unifies various sensors installed on the

roadside and the data of probe sensors of GPS as proposed under this project is a new effort in the Republic of

Indonesia. The issues to be taken into account in the implementation are considered as follows.

Consistency with the policy of the Republic of Indonesia on ITS a)

The Indonesian government positions the development of ITS as the central activity in the fields of energy and

traffic in the National Activity Plan for the Reduction of the Emission of Greenhouse Gas (President’s order No.

61). The development of the ITS master plan is promoted mainly by the Ministry of Transport.

Efforts to centralize the management of ITS infrastructure are promoted by, among other methods, gathering

CCTV camera systems of each state at the National Traffic Control Center. However, the actual state is the

independent development of sensors and systems by each government office and local government and the issue is

the lack of the alliance of systems and coordinated efforts. This survey received the wish to unify efforts on ITS

from the Technical Evaluation Application Agency which summarized ITS technology within the government and

this project is desired to be proceeded aiming at the standardization of ITS in the Republic of Indonesia.

Establishment of the organizational system in the Republic of Indonesia b)

In implementing this project, it is necessary to decide the Indonesian governmental office to be the counterpart of

the Japanese government. Under this survey, while the establishment of a system is expected to be feasible

whereby under the direction of the National Development Plan Agency, the Road General Affair Bureau of the

Ministry of Public Business will serve as the contact window and the Technical Evaluation Application Agency

will provide technical support, it is necessary to proceed with consultation on detailed points such as the role

allocation.

Grasping of the statutory regulation relating to ITS c)

In Indonesia, the statutory regulation on road traffic is shown in 2009 Law No. 22 and 2011 Governmental

Regulation No. 32. However, the survey carried out last year (NEDO Final Report (FY2013) The Feasibility

Study for Demonstration Project of International Energy Consumption Efficiency Technology and System “The

present state analysis relating to the possibility of the introducing Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) aiming at

alleviating urban traffic congestion (Indonesia)”) revealed that there is no specific regulation to restrict the

collection and provision of traffic information.

Provided that because the jurisdiction over general roads is divided by the kind of roads (national roads, state

roads and municipal roads), the permission and authorization from competent government will be necessary for

the implementation.

3-20

Decision on the scheme to procure fund for the implementation of the project d)

No possibility of a large scale support budget relating to the introduction of ITS is found among the Indonesian

government. Especially concerning toll roads, it is necessary for each private operator to work for the

development of roads and the introduction of ITS under its own budget,

The specific evaluation of economy is dealt with in Chapter 5, but just to mention that a large aspect of this

project is of public nature in that it seeks to develop ITS infrastructure aimed at the mitigation of congestion in

urban areas. From such reason, it is desirable to show the meaning and effect of the project and to cover a part of

the business cost with the project budget of the Indonesian government or the Japanese government.

Settlement of technical issues e)

The technical issues of traffic sensors to realize ITS and the result of the study thereon is discussed in the

following Section. Especially, the issues in the application in Indonesia and the method of the settlement are

considered.

3-21

Review of Technical Methods ③

Comparison with Alternative Methods for Collection and Furnishing Method of Traffic Information a)

The results of comparison between the proposed method for collecting and furnishing traffic information and the

present method are shown in Table 3-3. The proposed method which integrates the data of various sensors and

complements each other has high information precision and can minimize investment in sensors, which is the

method having high investment effectiveness in emerging countries, where ITS infrastructures are not well

developed.

Table 3-3: Comparison of Methods of Collecting and Furnishing Traffic Information

Fixed sensor method Probe sensor method Fixed sensor and probe sensor

coordination method

Implementation

Examples

ITS in advanced

countries

Web service Propose method

(No representative examples)

Sensors to be

used

Traffic volume

sensor

GPS Probe Sensor

Posting by users

Image sensor

Wireless packet sensor

GPS Probe sensor

Weather sensor

Type of data

obtained

B

Section traffic

volume

Site occupation rate

Site speed

C

Position, speed and

acceleration of each

vehicle

AA

Section traffic volume, Site

occupation rate

Site speed, Section traveling hours

Position, speed and acceleration of

each vehicle

Site image

Weather data(Rainfall,

temperature, atmospheric pressure)

Initial

Investment

C

It is necessary to

prepare sensor

infrastructures at

each site.

AA

Cheap automotive

terminals and smartphones

can be used.

A

As mutual implementation of data

is possible, investment will be

minimized.

Data Precision A

Information

precision is high at

the improved site.

B

Data cannot be collected at

sites with small traffic.

AA

Multiple sensor data can be

mutually complemented.

Data Reliability AA

Sensors with quality

assurance are used.

C

Various data are mixed.

A

Although data are mixed,

reliability level can be controlled.

General

Evaluation

B

Investments are

required for

preparation of

infrastructures

A

Services are available at

small investments, but it

has a precision problem.

AA

Investment effectiveness is high in

emerging countries, where ITS

infrastructures are not

disseminated.


(AA: Excellent, A: Good, B: Average, C: Poor)

3-22

The details in various sensor technologies will be stated hereinafter in order to realize the proposed method.

Image Sensor b)

Review of Image Sensor i)

Traffic volume sensors which are installed on roadsides to apprehend the traffic situations will be reviewed.

Traffic volume sensors measure section traffic volume, occupation rate and speed, etc. of roads and the data are

used for the basic data of traffic, including apprehension of traffic jam conditions, urban planning and signal

control, etc.

Traffic volume sensors are generally classified into ultrasound wave method, loop coil method and image method

(Table 3-4). Ultrasound wave method and loop coil method have high measurement precision, but as they only

detect the existence of vehicles, they are specialized for measurement of the number and speed of vehicles. On the

other hand, traffic volume sensors with image can apprehend not only existence of vehicles but also changes in

movement of vehicles by digital processing of images recorded by cameras. They have been disseminated in

Japan and while measurement precision is a little inferior, they are superior in concurrent use with image

monitoring and detection of abnormalities on roads such as accidents, traffic congestion and fallen objects. In

recent years, in Indonesia, improvement of CCTV has been developed for the purpose of image monitoring and

traffic volume sensors with image method are seemed to be promising in comparison with sensors with other

methods.

Table 3-4: Comparison of Traffic volume sensors

Ultrasound wave

method Loop coil method Image method

Measurement

Principle

Reflections of

ultrasound wave

Changes in inductance of coils Digital processing of

images

Measurement

Item

Number and

speed of vehicles

Number and speed of vehicles Number and speed of

vehicles

Measurement

Precision 99% 99% 95%

Easiness of

installation

A

C

Burying construction in roads is

necessary

A

Maintainability A B

Coils will be cut

A

Expandability C

Only number

and speed of

vehicles

C

Only number and speed of

vehicles

A

Concurrently used with

image monitoring and

phenomenon detection is

possible


(A: Good, B: Average, C: Poor)

3-23

Tasks of Image Sensor Method ii)

In the NEDO FY2013 Feasibility Study for Demonstration Project of International Energy Consumption

Efficiency Technology and System “The present state analysis relating to the possibility of the introducing

Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) aiming at alleviating urban traffic congestion (Indonesia)”, technological

review has been made toward introduction of image sensors to Indonesia. In emerging countries, including

Indonesia, ratio of motorcycles is incomparably greater than that of Japan, which is one of the tasks for

introduction of image sensors. In the aforementioned investigation, it is stated that only cars can be extracted by

image processing technology based on the verification results of the local site.

In this investigation, based on the aforementioned investigation, we discussed on introduction of image sensors

with Technical Assessment Application Agency, a research institute under the direct control of the Indonesian

government, which is leading ITS technology in Indonesia. As a result, as we had expected, Technical Assessment

Application Agency saw the impact of existence of motorcycles on detection of cars was the task to be coped with

for using image sensors. We found that there are the needs for the technology not only excluding the impact of

motorcycles but also distinguishing motorcycles from cars.

Wireless Packet Sensor c)

Wireless Packet Sensor is the sensor system measuring the moving speed between multiple sites by receiving at

multiple sites on roadsides the information specific to the device, contained in wireless packet transmitted by

smartphones, etc. equipped with wireless LAN (Wi-Fi)at multiple sites on roads and by matching the received

data.

In Indonesia, as dissemination of smartphones has been rapidly developing, many vehicles are running, equipped

with smartphones. By censing Wi-Fi wireless packet transmitted by such devices, distribution of moving speed by

road can be obtained.

As to the usefulness of Wireless Packet Sensor, experiments have already been made in Japan and overseas. In the

NEDO feasibility study for Demonstration Project of International Energy Consumption Efficiency Technology

and System “The present state analysis relating to the possibility of the introducing Intelligent Transport Systems

(ITS) aiming at alleviating urban traffic congestion (Indonesia)” conducted in January 2014, censing experiments

were made at nine sites of toll roads and general roads, which succeeded in measurement of section traveling

speed of vehicles. In the above study, 60-90 minutes Wi-Fi packets were simultaneously measured, and

measurement of the travel speed distribution of vehicles between each section was also successful.

This technique obtains the travel speed of vehicles traveling between a section, and in that sense, it is

complementary to the image sensors based method described in b) that measures traffic volume and speed

distribution of the road cross section (point) based on the analysis of CCV images. While it is possible to obtain

travel speed of the vehicle with wireless packet sensor, it can only measure the terminals equipped with

3-24

smartphone and where Wi-Fi is turned on. Therefore, by tracking the total traffic volume and vehicle types by

jointly using with the image senor in b), it should be possible to conduct more accurate analysis of traffic flow by

combining the data of two sensors.

GPS Probe Sensor d)

Mechanism of GPS Probe i)

GPS probe is the method of analyzing running speed of road section and traffic congestion conditions by

continuously apprehending the location information of vehicles which is obtained from GPS module, equipped

with cars.

More GPS modules are now built in the equipment installed for dynamic state management of vehicles, including

drive recorders, digital tachographs and taxi fare meters. As a result of rapid dissemination of smartphones, as

GPS modules are built in most models of smartphones, it became possible to continuously obtain the location

information of vehicles by activating the application with the function of obtaining location information and

transmitting data by smartphones.

Examples of Use in Japan ii)

There are many examples of use of traffic analysis by GPS probe in Japan. NEXCO West Japan is always

observing traffic mobility on roads by traffic counters, fixed traffic observation sensors installed on express ways,

but as it requires large cost to install and operate traffic counters, there are some sections where traffic counters

are not installed in some local routes and new routes, etc.

As it is also difficult for traffic counters to precisely measure the required time of section, GPS probe system is

used to detect the head of traffic congestion particularly in case of traffic congestion and to measure the precise

required time of sections.

NEXCO West Japan has been building up the system to analyze comprehensive road traffic information by using

GPS probe information. Buildup of this system is promoted under the name of INTRAMs: Integrated Transport

Management System, which is the system the service of which is provided on a cloud basis which is accessible on

the Internet. In this investigation, trial operation of taxi operation management service is shown below by using

the service of INTRAMs. Composition of INTRAMs is as shown in the Figure 3-20.

3-25

Figure 3-20: Composition of INTRAMs operated by NEXCO West Japan


GPS Positioning Precision in Makassar iii)

As GPS positioning precision differs according to the model of smartphones disseminated in the subject region, it

is necessary to conduct investigation by using the model disseminated in the local site. As it uploads the location

information through mobile phone lines, usefulness of GPS probe is greatly affected by the quality of mobile

phone lines. Depending on the land shape and buildings and weather (for example, heavy rainfall, etc.) of the local

site, radio wave from GPS satellite is affected and positioning precision might be reduced.

In order to verify the GPS positioning precision at the site, in the NEDO FY2013 Feasibility Study for



urban traffic congestion (Indonesia)”, positioning performance in the bad weather was investigated and actual

driving was made in the urban regions, where many buildings exist to determine GPS positioning precision.

In the above study, we did GPS positioning on toll roads and general roads in the entire Makassar city, and we

showed heat map that was measured at the congested locations. GPS measured with the smartphone mounted on

the vehicle is uploaded to INTRAMs installed in Japan on the real-time basis through the Internet using mobile

phone lines, which allows immediate analysis. Throughout Makassar, excellent speed measurement is conducted

with GPS probe. Especially, at the tollgate on a toll road, it measures the state where vehicles have stopped, and

3-26

even on general roads, traffic jam is detected mainly in the city center or near intersection of main roads, and near

markets.

GPS positioning accuracy due to the effect of building in the central part of Makassar city is also verified. Even

from the results of positioning in the central part of Makassar city, it is evident that the positioning accuracy of

GPS is high and it shows clear distribution of congestion along the vehicular path.

Effect of the Indonesia-specific heavy rain (squall) is also verified locally. Result of GPS positioning accuracy

during heavy rainfall is also shown, and it is clear that a large error doesn’t occur. Even during intense squall at

the site, acquisition accuracy of GPS doesn’t decline significantly and it is confirmed in this study that it has

adequate practical utility.

Review of Applicability of GPS Probe Sensor ④

In order to collect GPS probe data, it is necessary to equip GPS terminals with vehicles and to have vehicles run

for certain area coverage rates. For that purpose, we made trial introduction of developed operation management

application to taxi operators in the project site and conducted technical review to determine the usefulness of

application and applicability to data collection and precision.

Objective of Operation Management Application a)

In order to collect GPS probe information, it is necessary to equip with many vehicles terminals with GPS

modules for vehicle dynamic state management. For that purpose, it is conceivable that we develop an application,

providing carriers and taxi operators which operate vehicles with useful operation management service and that by

furnishing this application, we collect GPS probe information.

By furnishing operation management application with consideration, it is planned to gain profits of the

organization providing ITS services.

Types of Operation Management Application b)

Needs of operation management of carriers differ depending on the subject provided transportation services.

Accordingly, in this Operation, the following three operation management applications are expected.

① Taxi operation management system T-ProbITS

② Distribution vehicles operation management system F-ProbITS

③ Route bus operation management system B-ProbITS

Among them, as to taxi operation management system in 1) , we conducted hearings from the taxi company

cooperating to us in the regions and we also distributed 10 terminals equipped with testing vehicles and conducted

driving test for a month.

3-27

As to distribution vehicle operation management system in 2), we gave an explanation of the overview of the

system to a distribution service company and conducted hearings on its use.

As to route bus operation management system in 3), we decided to postpone the review of introduction by the

following reasons: Route buses in Makassar City are operated by omnibus transportation using light van-type

vehicles similar to those in Japan and operated by individuals, it is difficult to introduce terminals equipped with

vehicles due to management problems, etc. Since vehicles held by the taxi company in 1) reaches more than 500

cars, we can expect to ensure sufficient probe data.

Figure 3-21: Operation Management Application with INTRAMs as Base System


Taxi Operation Management System c)

Trial operation system introduced to the taxi company is the system which apprehends the position of vehicles by

mobile phone lines using smartphones (Google NEXUS5: Android OS) and gives instruction to each vehicle on

allocation of vehicles as well as obtains the driving tracks of vehicles in real time.

Management PCs used by the operation manager display the location information of taxis and traffic jam

information in real time and if a request for allocation of a car was received on the phone, etc., instruction can be

given to the available taxi from among the taxis near the site of allocation.

It is the system in which taxis designate the status of their cars (occupied/available, sending and meeting and rest)

by smartphones and wait for instructions from the operation manager.

As all systems are provided by the application based on WEB connected on the Internet, commercial models of

terminals and management PCs can be used and the system introduction cost is inexpensive and they are

affordable to carriers in developing countries.

It monitors conditions of driving by indicating the instructions by the operation manager on allocation to hotels

3-28

and hospitals and the conditions of running of taxies indicating the status of available or occupied.

Figure 3-22 shows the status of installation of smartphones equipped with taxies. The screen indicates the input of

the status of occupied or available of taxis and instructions on allocation by the operation manager.

Figure 3-22: Installation condition of automotive terminals

Source: Photographed by Investigation Team

Explanation Meeting for Introduction to the taxi company d)

We brought the system into the taxi company and held an explanation meeting. Now in Indonesia, taxi meters

with GPS function are introduced to several large taxi companies, but in many small and medium taxi companies,

dynamic state management of taxis is not made.

Instructions on allocation to taxi drivers of small and medium companies are given by taxi radio, but competition

among drivers for capturing passengers are severe as the contract between drivers and taxi companies is based on

sales commissions. Therefore, if a taxi is called by a passenger, not always the nearest taxi would respond and

such waste driving occurs as several taxis would simultaneously go to the destination, which caused the problem

that efficient operation management was not made.

The above car allocation system resolves this problem and also such reactions were made as it had various merits

of operation management, including analysis of sales performance by taxi driver and identification of the car

actually driving if an inquiry about lost property was made by a passenger.

There was also an opinion that the status of traffic jam determined by the driving speed of running taxis would be

useful information to the operation manager.

3-29

Figure 3-23: Manual used at Explanation Meeting


Results of Trial Operation e)

Trial operation was made from October 30, 2014 to November 26, 2014. The coverage distance was 31,804.5 ㎞

in total, which covered almost all the city of Makassar.

Table 3-5: Driving distance by car


No.700 No.861 No.552 No.580 No.800 No.708 No.528 No.855 No.527 No.846 Total

10/30 0.1 270.3 20.2 315.3 294.8 100.9 285.8 289.1 293.6 179.0 2,049.2

10/31 39.1 1.0 139.5 276.0 216.1 50.2 349.7 36.9 259.3 336.6 1,704.4

11/1 163.4 92.1 125.5 440.6 307.7 198.1 284.7 0.0 295.0 187.9 2,095.2

11/2 205.7 0.0 296.5 304.0 346.6 74.1 96.4 0.0 58.5 253.9 1,635.7

11/3 299.1 0.0 77.1 327.6 305.2 41.2 0.0 0.0 197.1 190.1 1,437.4

11/4 252.1 0.0 21.7 274.4 155.9 36.9 0.5 0.0 83.4 216.0 1,041.1

11/5 347.2 0.2 0.0 370.6 59.3 0.0 362.2 91.3 107.0 260.2 1,597.9

11/6 177.1 220.1 186.2 70.0 127.3 132.7 362.6 176.0 18.4 223.4 1,693.8

11/7 265.7 330.5 107.5 360.0 5.5 68.3 0.1 255.7 103.1 264.7 1,761.3

11/8 193.8 461.1 97.0 297.1 0.0 35.7 366.4 336.6 87.0 206.2 2,080.9

11/9 330.4 89.1 117.5 298.9 0.0 0.0 356.0 110.6 86.9 222.7 1,612.1

11/10 223.7 337.6 205.1 278.9 0.0 129.1 165.1 295.8 0.5 199.0 1,834.7

11/11 388.1 113.9 200.2 107.1 0.0 6.7 0.0 105.9 10.7 129.3 1,061.9

11/12 303.8 377.2 211.4 210.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 105.4 0.4 214.1 1,422.3

11/13 82.2 154.2 208.2 348.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 152.0 135.7 296.5 1,377.8

11/14 0.1 280.6 179.8 269.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 228.8 960.0

11/15 241.2 82.4 114.4 298.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 192.5 110.3 1,038.9

11/16 193.5 0.0 182.3 299.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 49.5 234.5 959.4

11/17 133.7 0.0 135.9 343.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 51.0 225.2 889.4

11/18 0.0 0.0 85.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 22.1 288.7 396.0

11/19 168.3 0.2 52.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 113.2 160.4 495.0

11/20 276.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 218.9 495.3

11/21 253.7 0.7 17.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 155.3 151.8 579.4

11/22 214.8 91.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.1 260.7 572.4

11/23 11.3 51.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 241.6 304.0

11/24 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.2 0.0 0.0 197.1 216.3

11/25 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 43.5 0.0 70.2 255.6 369.2

11/26 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.7 0.0 0.0 110.7 123.5

Total 4,764.4 2,954.0 2,782.0 5,490.2 1,818.5 874.0 2,704.8 1,955.5 2,397.1 6,064.0 31,804.5

3-30

Sales Analysis f)

Based on the analysis of running tracks of taxis, a taxi of the Company runs 300 km-600 km day and half of the

distance was unoccupied. In Figure 3-24, red tracks show running with passengers. About 40% of distance and

30% of time are running with passengers, which mean sales efficiency is not high.

These sales analyses can be made by taxi and by day and they can be used for analysis of sales efficiency and

comparison of performance of drivers as the place of getting on and off per one ride can be extracted.

Figure 3-24: Analysis of Ratio of Taxi Sales Run


Figure 3-25: Analysis of Comparison of Sales by


3-31

Results of Experiment g)

After actual running of about 320,000km, it was confirmed that it was possible to obtain high precision GPS probe

in the entire Makassar City. In particular, there is no area where the difference in obtaining GPS probe data is

large and the data could be obtained in the city in general.

By analyzing the driving routes of taxis, routes of high main road nature were extracted in the City, which could

be reflected on the fixed sensor allocation plan, etc.

It is the Figure 3-26 that indicated by expansion the driving tracks actually obtained. There are the routes on

which several tens of running tracks duplicate in the city center and the routes with high main road nature could

be extracted by the density of running of taxis. In Makassar area, maps indicating roads by Google and Open

Street Map are published, but there are many places which contain difference in positions of roads shown on maps

and we can confirm the precision of maps by using the running tracks data obtained above. In general in the area,

the level of organization of Open Street Map is high and it was confirmed that land shape was shown at relatively

high precision.

Figure 3-26: Identification of Main Roads by the Running Tracks of Taxis in the City Center


Further, parameters could be adjusted in relation to the filter, processing the difference in positioning to determine

the route, which generally varies depending on the precision of obtaining GPS. GPS noise removal filter could be

more advanced and as shown in the Figure 3-26, we succeeded in obtaining relatively precise tracks.

3-32

Through the verification tests, the taxi company proposed for the necessity of theft countermeasures for the

terminals installed in cars and for conjunction with new GPS tax meters which were scheduled to be introduced

and both parties confirmed, in time of commercialization, the policy for continuing consultations on technical

introduction corresponding to the status of introduction of equipment by the Company.

Distribution Vehicle Operation Management System h)

We conducted hearing researches of the distribution and transportation company on the vehicle operation

management system for distribution.

The Company has about 240 distribution vehicles and transports products and raw materials of cement between

the cement plant, located to 40km in the northeast of Makassar City, and Makassar Port. The route is shown in the

Figure 3-27. For the distance of 15km from the Port to Makassar City, the toll road is used and then operation is

made on the general road (Provincial Road) to the Cement Plant.

3-33

Figure 3-27: Operation Route of Distribution Vehicles


During the hearings, we asked the possible use by the Company of the distribution vehicle operation management

system used in Japan based on its example of use. The company has not yet introduced the vehicle dynamic state

management system and showed strong interest in the operation management system presented. In particular, the

highly valued features were that the present positions of vehicles could be apprehended in real time, that operation

out of the designated route could be discovered and that instructions could be directly given to drivers by the

operation manager.

Further, when we explained in the Project that it was planned to provide weather information together with road

traffic information by combining with weather sensor and as the transportation objects of the company were

cement and in case of heavy rain, vehicles were operated to avoid rain by temporal refuge of vehicles and we

received an opinion that the effect of providing weather information would be very large.

Cement Plant

Makassar Port

Toll Road

Route A: 42min. 40.0kmRoute B: 48min. 47.3km


3-34

Overview of the Project Plan (4)

Basic Project Content Decision-Making Policy ①

The purpose of this project is to introduce ITS to the Republic of Indonesia in order to optimize road traffic flow

by collecting, analyzing, and providing traffic information.

Inside Indonesia, which already has high-level ITS infrastructure, drivers can select routes based on traffic

information provided by business operators. As a result, traffic is diverted from congested routes to uncongested

routes, contributing to the normalization of traffic. Further, widespread weather sensors and high-level forecast

technology have led to the realization of improved road safety in changing weather conditions. However, the

development of infrastructure such as traffic and weather sensors, as well as systems to share information has not

progressed in the Republic of Indonesia. There, drivers will not necessarily choose the most optimal routes, which

leads to excessive congestion.

As we stated in Chapter 3(3)③, we evaluated the project's methodologies in terms of investment costs,

information accuracy, and expandability. As a result, for this project we settled on a basic policy of introducing a

cooperative system that integrates data from roadside image sensors and vehicle-mounted GPS probes. By

introducing this cooperative system, and by making minimal infrastructure investment that meet the needs of the

location, accurate traffic information can be provided at low cost. In regards to decisions regarding details on the

project, such as the project site, the following points must be considered.

A compatibility evaluation of technology that suits the location is feasible.

A validation of the business viability of the project that focuses on the diffusion of ITS into the whole of the

Republic of Indonesia is feasible.

An on-site project cooperation system is built.

Keeping the above points in mind, we will discuss the project in the next paragraph.

Concept Design and Equipment Specifications ②

Figure 3-28 shows the configuration of the system to be introduced. The system is comprised of three layers: the

sensor layer that acquires traffic information, the system layer that collects and analyzes data, and the provision

layer that displays information. The data acquired by the sensor layer is collected by system layer and then

undergoes temporary processing such as filtering and spot speed. The system layer's data fusion servers combine

data collected from different sensors, and carry out analytical processing and data interpolation. The traffic

information provision applications process the data into the output format required by information recipient of the

data.

The specifications for the functions required by each layer are shown on Table 3-6.

3-35

Figure 3-28: System Configuration


Image Sensors Wireless Packet Sensors Probe Sensors Weather Sensors

Smart Message Signs

Traffic Information Provision Application

Data Fusion Server

Image Collection

Server

Image Sensor Data

Collection Server

Wireless Packet Data

Collection Server

Weather Data

Collection Server

Probe Data

Collection Server

Website Smartphones

3-36

Table 3-6: Device Functions

Layer Devices Function

Sensor Image

Sensors

Measure and transmit the traffic data of their installation points (spot traffic

volume, spot speed, images)

Wireless

Packet

Sensors

Acquire and transmit the MAC addresses of the Smartphones of drivers who pass

by their installation point.

Probe

Sensors

Acquire and transmit the positioning information (latitude and longitude) or

terminals.

Weather

Sensors

Measure and transmit the weather data (temperature, humidity, atmospheric

pressure, rainfall) of their installation point.

System Image

Collection

Servers

Receive and accumulate still and moving pictures transmitted by image sensors.

As needed, provide search and playback functionality.

Traffic Data

Collection

Servers

Accumulate spot traffic volume and speed information transmitted by image

sensors.

Wireless

Packet Data

Collection

Servers

Based on MAC addresses transmitted by wireless packet sensors, compare data

from multiple locations in order to calculate the travel time between those

locations.

Probe Data

Collection

Servers

Collect and accumulate data transmitted by the probe sensors.

Carry out map-matching.

Calculate and accumulate speed information.

Provide terminals independent interfaces

Weather Data

Collection

Servers

Collect and accumulate acquired from weather sensors.

Analyze weather risks and other data.

Integration

Servers

Integrate data acquired from multiple sensors and provide information such as

travel time, congestion information, and weather forecasts.

Traffic

Information

Provision

Applications

Provide information generated by the integration server in a number of different

formats.

Information

Provision

Smart

Message

Signs

Provide real-time information (travel time) that affects route selection.

Smartphones Provide real-time information (travel time, congestion information, images, event

locations, etc.) that affects route selection.

Provide terminals independent interfaces

Websites Provide real-time information (travel time, congestion information, images, event

locations, etc.) and statistical information (congestion forecasts and trends,

construction schedules, etc.) that affect route selection.

3-37

Details of the Proposed Project ③

Project Site Selection a)

The city of Makassar in South Sulawesi has been selected as the project site. The reasons for Makassar’s selection

as the project site are as below.

It has a network of toll roads and general roads suitable for verifying the project's efficacy.

It has alternate routes which drivers could select based on provided traffic information.

It is seen to likely have the local partner companies and government agencies needed to smoothly progress

with the project, which is advantageous for negotiating the installation of sensors into toll roads and general

roads. Specifically, Margautama Nusantara, a toll road operator, and the Makassar municipal government. A

comprehensive agreement regarding the provision of traffic information has been signed with Margautama

Nusantara and the Makassar municipal government, and we believe this will lead to a fruitful partnership for

advancing the project. Further, relationships with local taxi companies will allow us to proceed with trial

implementations of car-mounted GPS probe sensors and software applications.

It has airports, hub ports, industrial parks, universities, etc., and is predicted to see future economic

development, with business predicted to continue expansion after the end of the project.

It is one of the Republic of Indonesia's few cities with a population over one million people, and the results

of an empirical study in this area would show the project's viability in the entire of the Republic of Indonesia,

including Jakarta.

Device Installation Plan b)

Devices will be installed within the project site of the city of Makassar based on Figure 3-29. Based on the

operational experience in Japan, wireless packet sensors and image sensors are installed at approximately 2

kilometer interval, and considering their application for signal control in future, they are also installed at the main

intersections. Weather sensors are planned to be installed at 15 places shown in Figure 3-29 for the purpose of

quantitatively capturing any sudden weather changes due to cumulonimbus that is as small as 1 kilometer to 3

kilometers.

By analyzing the data acquired by road-mounted sensors and car-mounted GPS terminals, traffic volume can be

estimated. Then, information such as congestion levels, travel time, etc. can be provided online, through smart

roadside message signs, and through drivers' smartphones, etc.

By collecting and providing traffic and weather information in real time, traffic can be diverted to more efficient

routes, reducing congestion and improving safety. This may also reduce the energy consumption and greenhouse

gas production of the entire city. Specifically, the system will integrate and analyze traffic volume and speed

information from road-mounted image sensors, vehicle positioning information from smartphones and

vehicle-mounted devices (probe data), packet information from in-vehicle wireless devices, and data from

3-38

road-side weather sensors, etc. Then, it will provide information on congestion in the target areas, travel time

information, and safety-related information on the risks of changing weather conditions.

Figure 3-29: Device Installation Plan


Challenges and Solutions Regarding the Selection of the Proposed Technology and System ④

We predict the following challenges facing the introduction of the proposed advanced traffic system.

Standardization a)

The proposed system is intended to integrate traffic data acquired from a number of sensor types to efficiently

leverage ITS infrastructure. In this study, we received offers from taxi operators who have GPS-equipped vehicles

to provide vehicle data when expanding the system to other cities at the end of this project. Further, administrative

agencies wished to integrate images from the CCTV systems installed around the city.

In order to easily integrate the data from numerous business operators and systems, it is vital to establish a

common type and format for the data that will be provided.

One possible strategy would be to establish a de facto standard in the private sector before anyone else. However,

because of the deep connection between ITS, road administration, and the police, we believe standardization with

government collaboration is necessary. In this project, we believe that there is a need to collaborate with the

agencies of the Indonesian government responsible for implementing ITS to create a system built with

standardization in mind.


Image Sensor, Wireless Packet SensorsSmart Information BoardWeather RadarWeather Sensor

3-39

Privacy Considerations b)

The data handled by the proposed system includes image data from urban areas and vehicle positioning

information, etc. This means that there is a need to protect the privacy of this raw data, as well as any industrial

secrets. The data processing layers will have to be clearly demarcated, whether the data is being used in

applications designed for specific customers, such as operation and management, or whether they are used for

reproducing traffic information for a large area, etc. This is to assure anonymity and proper statistical processing.

Installation Work c)

Image sensors, wireless packet sensors, and weather sensors will have to be installed along general roads and toll

roads. As the installation and adjustment of image sensors in particular will have an effect on the accuracy of

measurements, manuals and training programs will have to be prepared for local contractors ahead of time.

Operation and Maintenance d)

Our study has shown that many devices in Indonesia are inoperative due to technical malfunction. In the project,

we found that many traffic signals in the city of Makassar were broken down. The operation and maintenance of

devices after their implementation is one of the largest challenges for introducing the system in Indonesia.

There is a need to develop individuals with an understanding of ITS, who are capable of autonomously handling

not only installation work, but also software-related issues such as operation and maintenance. Ideally, we would

like to provide follow-up through education and training in cooperation with local companies.

Chapter 4 Evaluation of Environmental and Social Impacts

4-1

Analysis of the present state on the environmental society aspect (1)

In the present chapter, we will conduct analysis focusing on the present state of the entire Indonesia and Propinsi

Daerah Khusus Ibukota Jakarta (DKI-Jakarta), and if required, we have added the analysis of present state of

Makassar, South Sulawesi in this project. We referred to the NEDO Final Report (FY2013) The Feasibility Study

for Demonstration Project of International Energy Consumption Efficiency Technology and System “The present


urban traffic congestion (Indonesia)” during analysis.

Analysis of the present state ①

Climate a)

Republic of Indonesia is very long with East-West distance of 5,110 km, and it is a country with the highest

number of islands in the world and it has tropical rainforest climate and monsoon climate.

Makassar city which is assumed as the demonstration project field has monsoon climate, and it is divided into

season with large precipitation amount (November – April) and somewhat dry season due to the effect of monsoon

(May – October). As for the features of rainy season, intertropical convergence zone moves south near Indonesia

and in December – February, there are days when daily precipitation exceeds 100mm. In January, which witnesses

the highest precipitation, squall occurs several times in a day, and monthly precipitation approaches 1,000 mm.

Besides, peak of thunderstorm is November, and in many years thunderstorm is observed around 20 days in a

month. Peak of thunderstorm is earlier than the peak of precipitation because of high surface temperature. Feature

of summer season is dominance of wind from west and no prominent convergence, because of which the number

of days of precipitation and the number of days of thunderstorm are fewer than the normal years. However, the

maximum temperature of from August through October is very high at 35 degree Celsius.

4-2

Figure 4-1: Monthly average precipitation and number of days of lighting during 2008 - 2012

Source: Written out and quoted according to the data of NEDO Final Report (FY2013) The Feasibility Study for



urban traffic congestion (Indonesia)”

Atmosphere, noise and vibration b)

According to Ministry of the Environment of Japan, with regard to environment and atmosphere, there is

tremendous pollution along roadside due to transportation vehicles such as cars and motorbikes in a day, and

because high volume transportation systems such as railways are not yet developed, there is excess dependence on

road transport and chronic traffic congestion, which adversely affects atmosphere and environment in the cities yet

developed, there is excess dependence on road transportation, air pollution arising from car transportation is very

serious4.

In this project, even in Makassar, South Sulawesi where we verify the effectiveness of providing transportation

information, in most of the cases, the only public transportation available is community bus. In other words, even

in Makassar, because of excess dependence on road transportation, it can be presumed that the conditions are

similar to other Indonesian cities, and adverse effect on atmosphere, noise and vibration arising from road

transportation is a pressing issue.

4 “Deployment of Japan’s Environment Protection Technologies in Asia” Ministry of the Environment

No. of times of lighting (times) mean monthly

precipitation

No. of times of lighting (times) mean monthly precipitation (mm)

Jan. Feb. Mar. Apl. May. Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.

4-3

Population c)

As of 2010, Republic of Indonesia is a republic country with population over 237 Million people. Most of the

people follow Islam, and it is the single largest Islamic country in the world. Total land area is about 1.9 million

square kilometers, about 5 times of Japan, and it is comprised of several small and large islands around the equator.

Its capital is Jakarta, which is the largest city of Indonesia and its population is about 9.6 Million (as of 2010).

Main ten cities with population exceeding one Million people are concentrated in Java where the capital city

Jakarta is also located, followed by two cities in Sumatra Island and one city in Sulawesi Island.

Figure 4-2: Trend of population of Indonesia

Source: Statistics Indonesia Population of Indonesia by Province 1971, 1980, 1990, 1995, 2000 and 2010

Number of automobiles owned d)

Trend of the number of automobiles owned across Indonesia after 2008 is as shown in Figure 4-3.

With the increase in middle class layer, the number of users of motor cycles has increased significantly. Besides,

the number of automobile users is also increasing, and considering the size of population, it is expected that the

number will continue to increase in future. Apart from passenger cars, the number of cargo vehicles is also large,

and for streamlining the distribution vehicles, its importance is very high from the standpoint of environmental

society.

Population (10 thousand)

1971 1980 1990 1995 2000 2010

4-4

Figure 4-3: Trend of the number of automobiles owned across Indonesia

Source: Statistics Indonesia Number of Motor Vehicles by Types, Indonesia 1987-2013

Future forecast ②

Atmosphere, noise, and vibration a)

As described above, because of dependence on automobile and lack of development of large-scale transportation

means, traffic congestion occurs chronically in Indonesia at present, and atmospheric environment of cities is

worsening. As shown below, considering the social trend of increase in the number of vehicles owned due to the

future population and economic growth, there is a risk that there will be significant adverse impact on the

environmental aspects such as atmosphere, noise, and vibration.

Population b)

According to the forecast of United Nations, it is expected that population of Indonesia will grow 0.8% per annum

in short term, and in 2050, it is expected to reach 300 Million people. Besides, with economic growth, population

will naturally concentrate in major cities, and it is possible that increase in population of Jakarta metropolitan area

will exceed the national average.

4-5

Figure 4-4: Forecast of population across Indonesia

Source: Statistics Indonesia Population Projection by Province, 2010-2035

Number of automobiles owned c)

Due to growing income of citizens because of economic growth in future, the number of automobiles owned will

continue to increase. In 2030, it is forecasted that the number of automobiles owned of all types will exceed 90

Million units. In that, it is expected that increase in two-wheelers and passenger vehicles will be significant.

Especially, considering the expected increase in the income of citizens due to economic growth in future, it is

expected that across Indonesia, people will change from two wheelers, which currently occupies a major part of

vehicles owned, to passenger cars. Therefore, transportation demand management focusing on passenger cars will

be extremely important in future.

Ten thousand

1971 1980 1990 1995 2000 2010 2015 2035

4-6

Environmental Improvement Effect Relating to the Implementation of (2)the Project

The overall improvement of the regional environment may become possible, if the drivers who are using general

road can be guided to instead use the toll road through the providing/collection of the real-time traffic information

implemented in the project.

For this section, a consideration was given to the environmental improvement effect related to the implementation

of the project at Makassar city in Indonesia, a city being hypothesized as the field to verify the effectiveness of the

providing of traffic information.

In specifics, the fuel consumption amount and CO2 emission amount are being estimated based on the

investigation result of the current traffic volume and travel time of local area (NEDO Final Report (FY2013) The

Feasibility Study for Demonstration Project of International Energy Consumption Efficiency Technology and

System “The present state analysis relating to the possibility of the introducing Intelligent Transport Systems

(ITS) aiming at alleviating urban traffic congestion (Indonesia)”), and a quantitative calculation was made on the

environmental improvement effect brought by the conversion of traffic relating to the providing of traffic

information.

Summary of traffic volume and travel speed data ①

The summary of the traffic volume and travel speed data used for the analysis of this chapter is as follows. Toll

roads, toll service roads and general roads in parallel with the toll road were used as the target of investigation,

and the investigation was being implemented on the cross-section traffic volume and territory travel time for each

of the main points.

Although 24-hours observation is ideal for the cross-section traffic volume investigation, since making such

observation at all points of main roads is proven difficult, 24-hour observation was conducted on at least one point

of toll road and general road in parallel to such toll road. For other investigation points, based on the short term

investigation result, the estimation was made on a set-time-zone-traffic-volume being determined from the time

allotment of 24-hour investigation point. Furthermore, for the travel time investigation, probe investigation was

conducted by the investigation vehicle based on the separate time zone of each of the up and down direction.

Upon conducting such investigation, the passing time of main passing points were recorded on the investigation

sheet as the countermeasure against the potential risk of measuring instrument breaking down.

4-7

Table 4-1: Content and method of investigation

Investigation classification Investigation content Investigation

point Investigation method

Investigation

of traffic

volume

24-hour

investigation

*Separate assessment of up

and down direction

*Per individual time zone

*Per vehicle type

*Toll road

*General road

parallel to the

toll road

Manual observational

investigation

Video observational

investigation

Short time

investigation


and down direction

*Per vehicle type

*Service road

*General road

parallel to toll

road

*Other types of

road

Manual observational

investigation

Travel speed investigation


and down direction

*Per individual time

zone(Morning/noon/evening)

*Toll road

*Service road

*General road

parallel to toll

road

Probe investigation by

investigation vehicle

Passing time of main passing

point is also being recorded on

the investigation sheet

Source: Written out and edited according to the data of NEDO Final Report (FY2013) The Feasibility Study for




The main investigation results for the traffic volume and travel speed are as follows:

Traffic volume

The investigation was conducted on the total of 2 points (toll road and general road parallel to

expressway) as 24-hour manual observation point, 2 points as 24-hour video observation point (urban

area), and 14 points as short-time observation point of traffic volume.

For the traffic volume obtained from the short-time observation, the estimation was made on the traffic

volume per time zone based on the time allotment of 24 hours observation point. Upon such observation,

for toll road the allocation of toll road, and for general road the allocation of general road were being

applied, respectively.

Although the data for motorcycles, small cars and large cars are being obtained, since the purpose of this

observation is to consider the potential conversion to the toll road, the decision was made to use the data

for small cars and large cars for the analysis by sorting them out.

Travel time

The data was obtained for all target routes per individual direction such as toll road, service road and

general road parallel to the toll road.

In the case of missing of data due to the arising of time zone where data could not be obtained depending on the

route, compensation was made for such data by applying the average of 3 hour time zone. However, for the night

time travel time, the shortest necessary time of morning/noon/evening was being applied.

4-8

Figure 4-5: Per time zone traffic volume for toll road(Direction from urban area to airport)





Figure 4-6: Per time zone traffic volume for toll road (Direction from airport to urban area)





0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

06

:00

- 0

7:0

0

07

:00

- 0

8:0

0

08

:00

- 0

9:0

0

09

:00

- 1

0:0

0

10

:00

- 1

1:0

0

11

:00

- 1

2:0

0

12

:00

- 1

3:0

0

13

:00

- 1

4:0

0

14

:00

- 1

5:0

0

15

:00

- 1

6:0

0

16

:00

- 1

7:0

0

17

:00

- 1

8:0

0

18

:00

- 1

9:0

0

19

:00

- 2

0:0

0

20

:00

- 2

1:0

0

21

:00

- 2

2:0

0

22

:00

- 2

3:0

0

23

:00

- 0

0:0

0

00

:00

- 0

1:0

0

01

:00

- 0

2:0

0

02

:00

- 0

3:0

0

03

:00

- 0

4:0

0

04

:00

- 0

5:0

0

05

:00

- 0

6:0

0

小型大型

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

06

:00

- 0

7:0

0

07

:00

- 0

8:0

0

08

:00

- 0

9:0

0

09

:00

- 1

0:0

0

10

:00

- 1

1:0

0

11

:00

- 1

2:0

0

12

:00

- 1

3:0

0

13

:00

- 1

4:0

0

14

:00

- 1

5:0

0

15

:00

- 1

6:0

0

16

:00

- 1

7:0

0

17

:00

- 1

8:0

0

18

:00

- 1

9:0

0

19

:00

- 2

0:0

0

20

:00

- 2

1:0

0

21

:00

- 2

2:0

0

22

:00

- 2

3:0

0

23

:00

- 0

0:0

0

00

:00

- 0

1:0

0

01

:00

- 0

2:0

0

02

:00

- 0

3:0

0

03

:00

- 0

4:0

0

04

:00

- 0

5:0

0

05

:00

- 0

6:0

0

小型大型Large Small

Large Small

4-9

Figure 4-7: Per time zone traffic volume for general road (Direction from urban area to airport)





Figure 4-8: Per time zone traffic volume for general road(Direction from airport to urban area)





0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

06

:00

- 0

7:0

0

07

:00

- 0

8:0

0

08

:00

- 0

9:0

0

09

:00

- 1

0:0

0

10

:00

- 1

1:0

0

11

:00

- 1

2:0

0

12

:00

- 1

3:0

0

13

:00

- 1

4:0

0

14

:00

- 1

5:0

0

15

:00

- 1

6:0

0

16

:00

- 1

7:0

0

17

:00

- 1

8:0

0

18

:00

- 1

9:0

0

19

:00

- 2

0:0

0

20

:00

- 2

1:0

0

21

:00

- 2

2:0

0

22

:00

- 2

3:0

0

23

:00

- 0

0:0

0

00

:00

- 0

1:0

0

01

:00

- 0

2:0

0

02

:00

- 0

3:0

0

03

:00

- 0

4:0

0

04

:00

- 0

5:0

0

05

:00

- 0

6:0

0

小型大型

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

06

:00

- 0

7:0

0

07

:00

- 0

8:0

0

08

:00

- 0

9:0

0

09

:00

- 1

0:0

0

10

:00

- 1

1:0

0

11

:00

- 1

2:0

0

12

:00

- 1

3:0

0

13

:00

- 1

4:0

0

14

:00

- 1

5:0

0

15

:00

- 1

6:0

0

16

:00

- 1

7:0

0

17

:00

- 1

8:0

0

18

:00

- 1

9:0

0

19

:00

- 2

0:0

0

20

:00

- 2

1:0

0

21

:00

- 2

2:0

0

22

:00

- 2

3:0

0

23

:00

- 0

0:0

0

00

:00

- 0

1:0

0

01

:00

- 0

2:0

0

02

:00

- 0

3:0

0

03

:00

- 0

4:0

0

04

:00

- 0

5:0

0

05

:00

- 0

6:0

0

小型大型Large Small

Large Small

4-10

Figure 4-9: Traffic volume, target point for travel speed investigation and summary result





4-11

Estimation method of environmental improvement effect ②

Frame work of estimation a)

The estimation was made on the traffic volume of toll road/general road and the environmental improvement

effect upon change of travel speed (heating value of energy, CO2 emission amount), by hypothesizing the

converted traffic volume during pre/post implementation of the traffic information providing due to the

implementation of the project.

By converting to toll road from parallel general road, you can see the effect of increase in the speed of

converted vehicle, improvement on the fuel cost, and coefficient of CO2 emission getting smaller.

You can see the increase in the speed of a vehicle not being converted due to the alleviation of the traffic

congestion of the parallel general road, fuel cost is being improved and the coefficient of CO2 emission

getting smaller.

The framework of the environmental improvement effect estimation is as follows:

Figure 4-10: The framework of the environmental improvement effect estimation


Traffic volume data (Local

investigation, etc.)

Travel speed data

(Local investigation, etc.)

Energy heat value and CO2 emission amount (current value)

Fuel cost and CO2

emission factor

(basic unit)

Road network data

(Open street map, etc.)

Assumption of converted traffic volume due

to the project

Change of travel speed estimation

(BPR function)

Energy heat value and CO2 emission amount (improvement effect)

Estimating method of energy heat amount and CO2 emission amount

Estimation method of energy heat value and CO2

emission amount

4-12

Estimation method of energy heat value and CO2 emission amount b)

The estimation method of energy heat value and CO2 emission amount is as follows. Furthermore, the scopes of

estimation target are 3 routes which are toll road, service road of toll road, and parallel general road of Makassar

city.

For the road network data being used for estimation, the environmental improvement effect was being estimated

on road link base by sorting the road extension through the use of “Open street map”, and by attaching on it the

traffic volume/travel speed data obtained at on-site investigation on.

Estimation method of energy heat value

Gasoline-gas oil consumption volume (l)

= traffic volume * road extension (km) * per speed zone fuel cost (l/km)

= converting to heat value (J)

Estimation method of CO2 emission amount

CO2 emission amount (kg-CO2)

= traffic volume * road extension (km) * per speed zone emission basic unit (kg-CO2/km)

Table 4-2: Gathering method of data being used for estimation

No Data Gathering method

1 Traffic volume From investigation result

2 Travel speed From investigation result

3 Road extension Sort by “Open street map”

4

Per speed zone fuel cost

Per speed zone

emission basic unit

Make a setup by referring to existing information/investigation

Source: Investigation report of CO2 emission amount reduction

of road traffic sector (The Ministry of Economy, Trade and

Industry、FY2011 and FY2012)

5 Heat value conversion

coefficient Based on Petroleum Association


4-13

Estimation method of fuel cost and CO2 emission basic unit c)

The energy heave value and CO2 emission amount necessary for the estimation and CO2 emission basic unit are

being determined through the existing information/investigation (road traffic sector) that is estimating the fuel cost

and CO2 emission basic unit, based on the driving experiment conducted in Jakarta.

The setup was made pursuant to the following formula by referring to the investigation report of CO2 emission

amount reduction, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, (FY2011 and FY2012).

For the existing investigation, the regression formula of fuel cost and CO2 emission basic unit has been drawn-up

based on the travel performance fuel cost investigation that targeted Jakarta and Chassis Dynamometer test that

provided consideration to the traveling cycle in Jakarta.

For this investigation, the estimation of fuel cost and CO2 emission basic unit were estimated based on the

estimation formula of existing investigation by assuming gasoline vehicle to be a small-size car, and diesel vehicle

to be a large-size car.

Estimation formula

Y=ax2+bx+c/x+d (1)

Y: Basic unit, x: Travel speed(km/h)

Parameter

Car type Basic unit a b C d

Gasoline car

Fuel

cost(l/100km)

CO2(g/km)

1.010e-3

2.295e-2

-1.225e-1

-2.759e+0

4.440e+1

1.013e+3

8.941e+0

2.062e+2

Diesel car

Fuel

cost(l/100km)

CO2(g/km)

2.912e-4

8.038e-3

-6.301e-2

-1.780e+0

2.272e+1

4.634e+2

1.033e+1

2.817e+2

Figure 4-11: Basic unit of gasoline car(Left: Fuel cost、Right: CO2 emission amount)

Source: NEDO Final Report (FY2013) The Feasibility Study for Demonstration Project of International Energy

Consumption Efficiency Technology and System “The present state analysis relating to the possibility of the

introducing Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) aiming at alleviating urban traffic congestion (Indonesia)”

Test Data Regression curve Prius

Test Data Regression curve Prius

4-14

Figure 4-12: Diesel car emission factor(Left: Fuel cost、Right: CO2 emission amount)




Estimation result of environmental improvement effect ③

Current status of energy heat value and CO2 emission amount a)

Under the pretext of implementing the sorting of gathered data and supplementation of lost data, the energy heat

value and CO2 emission amount were estimated pursuant to the above mentioned estimation method. The

calculation result for the toll road, service road and parallel general road are as follows. The status of energy heat

value prior to the project implementation at target region was 6,616 TJ/year, and the CO2 emission amount was

446,000 t-CO/year.

Figure 4-13: Estimation result of energy heat value




Test Data Regression curve

Test Data Regression curve

Current Status

Toll Road

General Road

Unit: TJ/year

4-15

Figure 4-14: Estimation result of CO2 emission amount




Assumption of converted traffic volume to toll road and estimation method of travel speed change b)

The energy saving effect (energy heat value, CO2 emission amount) upon change of traffic volume on toll

road/general road and travel speed was estimated by assuming the converted traffic volume during pre/post

providing of information.

For the converted traffic volume, 1%, 2%, etc. assumed cases of conversion were setup, and for the change of

travel speed on the toll road and general road due to the conversion, the travel speed corresponding to the

converted traffic volume were being setup pursuant to the below shown traffic volume and relative equation of the

speed (BPR function) BPR function is a function that was displayed on the traffic distribution manual in 1964 by

the U.S Bureau of Public Road. Because of its operability, the function was being utilized as a useful function for

a long period of time.

BPR function is shown in the Figure 4-15 and is defined by several parameters. For this investigation, by referring

to the existing research, we have used the revised BPR function (Steenbrink 1974). However, for the free travel

time and traffic capacity of the project field, we have decided to provide a setup by referring to the same degree of

standard as the road standard in Japan, since the result value similar to the road traffic census in Japan do not

currently exist.

For this investigation, we had no choice but to succumb to this type of easy method, since there is shortage of data

necessary in performing strict estimation such as estimating the free-travel-time and traffic capacity. However, by

gathering necessary data, we are expecting to be able to perform estimation with higher accuracy for our future

prospect. Furthermore, although we used the revised BPR function (Steenbrink, 1974) based on the existing

Current Status

Toll Road

General Road

Unit: Thousand t-CO2/year

4-16

research for the BPR function parameter, with the progress in the accumulation of necessary data, it is eventually

possible to be able to conduct parameter estimation that is ideal for Indonesia. Such issue must be addressed as an

important part of future challenge.

The estimation method of speed is as follows.

The result traffic volume xa of a link a regarded as input data is being entered

The necessary time ta of a certain link a is being calculated by basing on BPR function

The free travel time and traffic capacity was setup by refering to the same degree of road standard as the

standard in Japan

Parameter will be setup pursuant to existing research (revised BPR function)

Estimated speed va is being calculated based on the link extension La and necessary time ta

Figure 4-15: Estimation method of speed

Estimation result of environmental improvement effect relating to the providing of traffic information. c)

The estimation result of the environmental improvement effect (energy heat value and CO2 emission amount) in

the case of assuming the converted traffic volume to toll road from 5% to 20% in the increment of 5%, were

shown as the result on the next page. The investigation showed that as the converted traffic volume increased, the

energy heat value and CO2 emission amount showed a sign of declining trend. This is due to the fact that with the

reduction of general road’s traffic volume, its travel speed is being improved, and it leads to the reduction of the

energy heat value and CO2 emission amount. In specifics, it showed that the reduction rate of the energy heat

value was approximately 3.4% upon 5% of the traffic volume of the parallel general road being converted to the

toll road, and the reduction rate of CO2 emission amount was approximately 3.2%. Although such finding

indicates that the response of CO2 emission amount is slightly lower than the energy heat value, it none the less

lead to the result of seeing an increase of reduction rate proportional to the increase of the converted traffic

volume.

The analysis result showed that a certain degree of environmental improvement effect can be obtained by pressing

the conversion to toll roads. The result also showed that pressing the conversion to toll roads not only increases

the revenue of toll road companies, but it also quantitatively showed the manifestation of social effect upon target

areas, including parallel roads.

交通量

ta0

ca

ta(1+α)

a

aaaa

c

xtxt 1)( 0

xa：実績交通量ta0：自由旅行時間ca：時間交通容量α：パラメータ（＝2.62）β：パラメータ（＝5）

Result Traffic Volume

Free Travel Time

Time-Traffic Capacity

Parameter (=2.62)

Parameter(=5) Traffic Volume

4-17

For the future prospect, by basing on this calculation result, it is essential that we verify the conversion amount of

actual traffic volume of the project field, along with verifying the effect.

For this section, trial calculation of the environmental improvement effect (energy heat value and CO2 emission

amount) was made based on the on-site observation data of traffic volume and travel speed, and assumption of

converted traffic volume rate to toll road. Based on this, a trial calculation of 8.2% reduction on energy heat value

and 8.1% reduction of CO2 emission amount were being obtained by basing on the assumption of 10% converted

traffic volume. On the other hand, we still need to solve the two issues of “grasping the potential of converted

traffic volume” and “assumption of conversion rate of traffic volume”.

For this investigation, we investigated the cross-section traffic volume on local basis and used it as the parameter

of converted traffic volume, since there is no existing data that have investigated the OD (Origin-Destination)

traffic volume within Indonesia.

For this reason, the trial calculation became a kind of calculation that included vehicles that do not need to use the

toll road, such as its place of destination falling at the middle of general road, etc. From the standpoint of

performing estimation with higher accuracy, instead of performing trial calculation based on the cross-section

traffic volume, we believe it is more desirable to perform trial calculation of environmental improvement effect by

performing trial calculation based on the OD traffic volume. However, such calculation must be performed under

the pretext of grasping the number of vehicles that can convert into using toll road within the entire traffic volume.

When considering the fact that converted traffic volume (revenue increase) to toll road is regarded as the highest

priority especially for the business scheme of local toll road company (MUN), it becomes very necessary to make

estimation with higher accuracy in calculating the potential for converted traffic volume.

Furthermore, for the assumption of conversion rate of traffic volume, we believe it is desirable to make

quantitative setup based on the survey data of actual road users. Based on such reason, we believe it is necessary

to implement field survey at local site concerning the potential conversation to toll road. When considering the

method for conducting the field survey, we believe the implantation of questionnaire survey based on SP (stated

preferences) to be effective. SP survey is a technique used to evaluate the hypothetical condition by asking

travelers their likes/dislikes through questionnaire survey. Although the questioning format is done in several

ways, one such example is to formulate ideas through the rating method of showing respondents several cards and

ask them to pick the most ideal traffic method/traffic route from the cards. Even though SP method is typically

being applied in the field of public works planning and transport economics, we believe it can still be applied to

this investigation, since it is also actively being applied in the fields such as demand survey of a new product in

the marketing research field, value evaluation of environment in the environmental economics field, etc. For the

future prospect, within the scope of potential traffic volume that can make conversion based on SP survey, we

believe it is necessary to include a type of quantitative trial calculation that can figure out the type of method

needed to guide a certain level of drivers.

4-18

Figure 4-16: Reduction effect of energy heat value


Figure 4-17: CO2 reduction effect of emission amount


Unit: TJ/year

Unit: Thousand t-CO2/year

General Road Toll Road

General Road Toll Road

Current Status

5% Converted

10% Converted

15% Converted

20% Converted

Current Status

5% Converted

10% Converted

15% Converted

20% Converted

4-19

Environmental/Social Impact of Implementation of Project (3)

This project intends to provide traffic and weather information to users of existing toll roads and general roads to

promote selection of proper travel path by passenger cars and freight cars for traffic demand management within a

subject area. New construction or improvement of roads, condemnation of lands or other large-scale actions are

not covered by this project and therefore, the natural environment, local residents and local communities will not

suffer material adverse effects by this project.

Based on such assumption, current situation of the subject zone and effects of this project are considered in this

section using the items of the environmental society care check list of the Japan Bank for International

Cooperation (JBIC) guideline.

4-20

Table 4-3: Environmental Society Care Items and Impact of this Project

Category Environmental

Issues Major Check Issues

Current Condition and Impact of this Project

Ap

pro

val/L

icense an

d D

escriptio

n

(1) EIA and environmental approval/license

1) Have the environmental impact assessment report (EIA report) and other documents been completed? 2) Have the EIA report, etc. been approved by the interested state government? 3)Are the EIA report, etc. unconditionally approved? If there are incidental requirements, are they fulfilled? 4) Have the approval and license on the environment, in addition to above-described ones, been acquired from the local governing agency, if required?

As this project is software undertaking, preparation of EIA report is not likely required.

(2) Explanation to local residents

1) Are the particulars and impact of the project properly explained to local residents to obtain their understanding? 2) Are the comments from the residents and governing agency properly addressed?

This project is software undertaking with minor impact on local residents and therefore not explained to them.

Measu

res for P

ollu

tion

Co

ntro

l

(1) Air quality 1) Isn’t there impact of air pollutant substances discharged from passage of vehicles, etc.? Is the environmental standard of the interested state fulfilled? 2) If an industrial zone causing air pollutant already exists near the route, doesn’t the air pollution get worse by the project?

The air quality is expected to be improved by the traffic demand management when this project is implemented.

(2) Water quality 1) Doesn’t the water quality in the downstream water area get worse by the soil flowage from the topsoil exposed area of the banking, earth cut and other parts? 2) Doesn’t the effluent discharge from the road surface contaminate the ground water or other water sources? 3) Doesn’t the water discharged from stations, parking/service areas, etc. fulfill the emission standard of the interested state? Aren’t there some water areas where the environmental standard of the interested state is not satisfied because of the discharge?

This project is software undertaking and not likely to deteriorate the water quality by the implementation of the project.

(3)Noise and vibration

1) Do the noise and vibration of the vehicles or railways meet the standard of the interested state?

Noise and vibration are expected to be improved by the management of the traffic demand as a result of implementation of this project.

4-21


Item Major Check Item


Natural

Environment

(1) Protected area

1) Isn’t the site located within a protected area selected by law of the interested state or international treaty? Does the project have an impact on the protected area?

The zone covered by this project is not located in the protected area.

(2) Ecological system

1) Doesn’t the site contain old-growth forest, tropical natural forest, or habitat important ecologically (coral reef, mangrove swamps, tidal flat, etc.)? 2) Doesn’t the site contain habitat of precious species for which protection is required by laws of the interested state, international treaties, etc.? 3) If a serious impact on the ecological system is a concern, are countermeasures to reduce such impact taken? 4) Are measures taken to prevent the block of wild life and livestock migration pathway, fragmentation of habitat, or traffic accidents of animals? 5) Does the development resulting from the construction of new roads cause destruction of forests, poaching, desertification, drying of moor, etc.? Don’t alien species (which were not lived before in the area), disease and pest ingress to perturb the ecological system? Are countermeasures taken against such troubles? 6) If a road is constructed in the underdeveloped area, is the natural environment significantly damaged?

The subject zone of this project contains no tropical natural forest and ecological system significant ecologically. No road is constructed for this project and the natural environment is not affected.

(3)Hydrometeor 1) Doesn’t the alteration of geological formation or construction of tunnel or new structures have adverse impact on the flow of surface water or underground water?

No road is newly constructed for this project and the natural environment is not affected.

(4)Geography formation and geological condition

1) Are there places of poor geological condition on the route which may cause earthfall or landslide? Will proper construction method or other measures be considered for such cases? 2) Is earthfall or landslide caused by banking, earth cut or other civil engineering work? Are proper measures taken to prevent earthfall or landslide? 3) Is soil flowage from banking, cut, damping area or earth and sand pit caused? Will proper measures be taken to prevent soil flowage?

No road is newly constructed for this project and the geography formation and geological condition are not influenced.

4-22




So

cial En

viro

nm

ent

(1) Relocating residents

1) Does the implementation of the project cause residents to relocate involuntarily? In such event, are efforts to minimize the impact of relocation made? 2) Is compensation for relocation properly explained to relocating residents before the relocation? 3) Is investigation for the relocation or residents made and is a relocation plan made including restoration of basics of life after relocation? 4) Does the plan give due diligence to relocating residents, particularly to women, children, poor people, ethnic minority, indigenous or other socially week persons? 6) Is consensus obtained for relocating residents before the relocation? 7) Is the framework for proper enforcement of relocating of residents prepared to implement the relocation of residents properly? Is sufficient capability to perform provided and budgetary measures taken? Is agreement for the relocating residents obtained for the relocation? 7) Is monitoring of impact of relocation planned?

No road is constructed for this project and relocation of residents is not caused.

(2) Life and

livelihood

1) Doesn’t the construction of railways and roads for the new development have impact on existing means of transportation or the life of residents who are engaged in it? Aren’t significant changes of land utilization or livelihood caused or isn’t misemployment caused? Does the plan give consideration to impact mitigation? 2) Is there no other adverse influence on the life or residents by this project? Will consideration be given to mitigate the influence when required? 3)Is there risk of disease outbreak by inflow of population from other areas (including HIV or other infectious diseases)? Is consideration given to appropriate public health as required? 4) Isn’t the road traffic in the ambient area adversely affected by the project (congestion, increase of traffic accidents, etc.)? 5) Isn’t the movement of residents interfered by roads or railroad lines? 6) Isn’t the sunlight blocked or radio disturbance caused by road structures (overpass, etc.)?

New roads are not constructed for this project and therefore the life and livelihood are not adversely influenced. Traffic demand management as a result of implementation of this project will mitigate congestion in the ambient area.

(3)Cultural assets

1) Are the archaeologically, historically, culturally or religiously magnificent legacies, historic sites, etc. damaged by the project? Are measures stipulated by the national law of the interested state given?

No road is newly constructed for this project and cultural assets are not damaged.

(4)Landscape 1) Isn’t there any landscape subjected to adverse influence requiring specific consideration? Will measures required be taken?

For this project, installation of CCTV camera is examined but it is not a large-scale facility and its influence on the landscape is limited.

(5)Ethnic minority and aboriginal people

1) If ethnic minority and aboriginal people live on the route, will consideration be given to minimize the impact on their culture and style of living? 2) Will the law regarding the rights of ethnic minority and aboriginal people in the interested nation be observed?

No roads are newly instructed for this project and the style of neighboring residents is not affected.

4-23



Current Condition and Impact of this

Project

Oth

ers

(1) Impact of

construction

work

1) Are remedial actions taken for

contamination (noise, vibration, muddy

water, dust, exhaust gas, waste, etc.)

during the construction work?

2) Doesn’t the construction give adverse

effect to the natural environment

(ecological system)? Are mitigation

measures for the impact taken?

3) Doesn’t the construction give adverse

effect on the social environment? Will

mitigation measures be taken for the

influence?

4) Will training for safety (traffic safety

and public health) be given to workers

and other project related personnel when

required?

Large-scale construction work is not

planned for this project. Impact of the

assumed very small-scale construction

work will be limited and mitigation

measures will not be required.

(2)

Monitoring

1) Is undertaker monitoring planned and

executed for the above environmental

items which are supposed to give

impact?

2) Are the items, methods, frequency and

other conditions of that plan judged to be

proper?

3) Is the undertaker monitoring system

(organization, personnel, equipment,

budget and continuity) established?

4) Have the method, frequency and other

conditions of report by the undertaker to

governmental agencies been specified?

Large-scale construction works are not

assumed for this project. Construction

works will be very small in scale and

monitoring plan will not be required.

Rem

ind

ers

Reference to

other

environmental

check list

1) Applicable check items for the forest

industry shall be added and evaluated

when required (when large-scale

deforestation is required, for instance).

2) Check items for the electric feeder line

and delivery of electricity shall be added

and evaluated when required (when

power transmission and transformation

facilities are constructed, for instance).

Large scale deforestation or

construction of power transmission and

transformation facilities is not involved

in this project.

Caution for

use of

environmental

check list

1) When required, impact on crossing of

borders or global scale environmental

issues shall be confirmed (when factors

related with treatment of waste crossing

the border, acid rainfall, ozone layer

destruction, or global warming issues are

anticipated, for instance).

Impact crossing the border or global

scale impact is not assumed with this

project.

4-24

Summary of host country environmental/social care related legislation (4)and measures required for clearing

Summary of environmental/social care related legislation related with the project implementation ①

With respect to the environmental/social care related legislation in Indonesia, the basic environmental

conservation law (Law No.4/1982 for Basic Provision for Environment)was enacted first in 1982. This was

amended in 1997 as an environmental management law (Law No.23/1997 for Environmental Management), by

which regulations for the environmental right and actions giving influence on the environment were provided.

To be more precise, with respect to the environmental management law, environmental standards were tightened,

penalties were tightened, provisions on dispute settlement were reinforced, and regulations on the right of

nationality on environmental information were introduced. This law was amended again in 2009 and enforced as

the environmental protection management law(Law No.32/2009 on Environmental Protection and Management).

This law provided for environmental management program and environmental monitoring program (UKL-UPL),

authority and penal provisions for environmental authorities were greatly enhanced, and authority was given to the

environmental ministry to arrest suspects of environmental crimes in cooperation with the police bureau.

Environmental impact assessment (EIA; called as AMDAL: Analisis Mengenai Dampak Lingkungan in

Indonesia) was introduced in 1986 based on the provisions of the 1983 basic environment law and revised by the

governmental ordinance for the environmental impact assessment centering on the reinforcement of authority of

the Environment Management Center in 1993. It was revised again in 1999 and currently, businesses requiring

environmental impact assessment based on the 2012 governmental ordinance No.27, which was revised again in

2012, are provided.

Table 4-4: Ordinances related with environmental management and environmental impact assessment

Title and summary of ordinances

Environmental

Management

Law

No.32/2009 Environmental Management Law (provided by AMDAL as a means for

environmental protection and management)

Environmental

impact

assessment

No.27/2012 )(Environmental permit)

No.07/2010(Environmental impact assessment document processing qualification and entitlement

training institution)

No.15/2010(Requirements and procedure for permission of commission for environmental impact

assessment)

No.16/2012(Environmental impact assessment document procedure)

No.05/2012(Businesses subjected to environmental impact assessment and types of activities)

No.07/2012 (Procedures for resident participation and environmental permit for environmental

impact assessment)

No.08/2013 (Environmental permit rules)

Source: Prepared by the Investigation Team based on the web site of the Indonesia Ministry of Environment

4-25

Particulars of EIA, etc. of host country required for implementation of project ②

In case of EIA at state level, particulars of projects and development actions requiring EIA, method of disclosure

of information and other requirements are stipulated by various government ordinances. Major among them is the

2012 government ordinance No. 27 (Government Regulation No. 27/2012 on Environmental Impact Assessment).

2012 government ordinance No.27 stipulates that businesses requiring environmental impact assessment should

prepare (1) first, then (2) through (4) and obtain approval from the governing agency.

(1) Environmental impact assessment method document(KA-ANDAL: Kerangka Acuan–Analisis Dampak

Lingkungan Hidup)

(2) Environmental impact assessment document (ANDAL: Analisis Dampak Lingkungan Hidup)

(3) Environmental management plan (RKL: Rncana Pengelolaan Lingkungan Hidup)

(4) Environmental monitoring plan (RPL: Pencana Pemantauan Lingkungan Hidup)

Requirements of EIA for road businesses are stipulated only with respect to the increased distance. Businesses like

this project which condemn no land or cause no atmospheric air pollution are not included in projects or

development actions which should perform EIA.

Provisory clause, however, sets forth that EIA is required when the approval body acknowledges the necessity and

therefore it will be necessary to confirm with the approval body. The approval body is the Environmental Ministry

for national large-scale projects and projects across provinces or the province where the project is to be

implemented for other cases.

Bodies performing business submit details of business plan to the approval authority. Projects are classified into

those requiring detailed EIA, those requiring no detailed EIA but requiring environmental management plan and

environmental monitoring plan (equivalent to the IEE level) and those requiring no EIA procedure. Procedures

required for each category are taken.

Matters to be done by interested states to realize projects (5)

As described above, businesses which do not condemn land and cause no air pollution are not included in projects

or development actions which should perform EIA. However, because of the provisory clause that EIA is required

when the approval body acknowledges the necessity, it should be confirmed with the approval body before

implementing this project.

Chapter 5 Financial and Economic Evaluation

5-1

Basic Policy (1)

This project is a plan proceeded by the following two steps.

Figure 5-1: Implementation flow of the project

Source: Prepared by the Investigation Team

Under the current status of the ITS information service in the present Indonesia, CCTV cameras, traffic sensors

(traffic counters), etc. which become traffic observation infrastructure have been installed only in some places.

The national traffic police, the road administrator, the Ministry of Transport, etc. have their own plans to develop

CCTV cameras in order for the purpose of signal and traffic controls, however, these are only methods for taking

pictures to visually confirm the status of the local areas. The reason for this is that the traffic volume and the

vehicle speed cannot be analyzed from images when crossing vehicles and motorcycles are mixed because the

image processing technology is not sufficient.

Therefore, in this project, we install hybrid highly-functional fixed sensors combining an image sensor and a

Wireless packet sensor to measure the traffic volume and the running speed in a point and section travel speed of

vehicles with a high degree of accuracy. With a combination of GPS probe information, we also obtain accurate

and wide range of traffic information, including the detection of traffic congestion and the continuous variation of

the travel time in the Makassar area. Furthermore, we generate and deliver traffic information with high utility

value by combining with weather information from weather sensors and radar.

STEP2 : Expansion to Jakarta

Information from fixed sensors, such as CCTVs installed by the Indonesian

government agencies

Probe information from private

institutions, such as taxi companies

Extension of the ITS core system

STEP1 : Construction of a pilot system in Makassar

Installation of infrastructure fixed sensors

Installation of GPS probes to

taxis, etc.

Development of the ITS core

system

Use of external information

Investment outlets in this project

5-2

We prepare this ITS core system developed in Makassar for processing information from highly-functional fixed

sensors and GPS probes as a pilot system and show its performance and effects to ITS-related agencies of the

Indonesian government. In the subsequent expansion to Jakarta, etc., we perform only the extension of the ITS

core system and not the development of infrastructure fixed sensors in this project because they should be

installed by the government agencies. Similarly, for vehicle onboard units to acquire GPS probes. We obtain GPS

information by cooperating with the taxi group in Jakarta which are promoting the development of taximeter

linked units for the future. Therefore, at the time of the expansion to Jakarta, we do not project the investment

other than the investment in the expansion of the ITS core system to receive these data.

Integration of Project Costs (2)

Overview of equipment installation plans ①

The pilot system built in Makassar gains traffic volume and measure travel time by installing sensors on toll roads

and general roads. Also, it converts information obtained from GPS probes into running speed by each line to

measure traffic congestion and required time. For weather, it gains information in real time by using a radar and

weather sensors.

We offer the results via smart information boards installed on the roadside, websites, smart phones owned by

drivers. Figure 5-2 shows the scheduled locations for installing equipment in the field to build the pilot system.

Selection of equipment installation locations was performed based on the local investigation of actual conditions

and the interviews with the local companies, the police, etc. and spots of traffic bottleneck and spots required to be

monitored for safety measures were chosen. In addition to this, we are placing CCTVs and wireless packet sensors

at the main intersections of major roads by grasping heavily traveled roads in Makassar through the test operation

of GPS probe equipment on the taxi company.

The costs for the development, installation and operation of sensors and systems required for the project are

described in the paragraph (3).

5-3

Figure 5-2: Equipment installation plan


Traffic information collection sensors and a weather radar to be installed on the roadside ②

Sensors to be installed at the roadside are image sensors, wireless packet sensors and a weather sensor for

grasping the weather conditions. We think that these sensors are more efficient when they are installed together in

one place because we need to secure the power supplies and communication lines for them. In particular, for

wireless packet sensors, we also consider integrating them with image sensors, including the cost reduction of the

equipment.

We are planning to install one weather radar as complementary to the local observation network and scheduling to

install it in the BOSOWA tower office building, which is the highest building in the city and has already been

taken up occupation by a local partner company, an assumed toll road company and the BOSOWA group in

consideration of the maintainability of the equipment.

Equipment for offering traffic information ③

We are planning to install smart information boards (information boards which can deliver not only traffic

information but also signage advertisements) in four places as media offering traffic information. The purpose of

our proposed system is to guide drivers traveling on the general roads to the toll roads to ease traffic congestion

and optimize energy consumption by offering traffic information. For this purpose, we think that it is preferable to

install them near the junctions of the directions of the urban and north areas.

Also, from the results of interview with the local toll road company and for the purpose of aiming the

5-4

development of the business by delivering advertisements in conjunction with offering traffic information, we

decided that the boards should be smart information boards which can deliver signage advertisements at the same

time.

We are planning to effectively use the equipment which is scheduled to be installed and operated by the local toll

road company of our cooperative firm.

Collection of probe information and equipment for delivering information ④

For the purpose of collecting the location and speed information of each vehicle and the purpose of receiving

traffic information, we prepare and distribute 750 onboard terminals with installed applications. The distributions

are 500 taxis of the taxi company and 250 logistics vehicles of the logistic company, which are the local

cooperation firms planning demonstration projects.

The basis of distribution numbers of onboard terminals is as follows. From survey results, the average travel

distance of taxis is about 300 km a day per vehicle. Many of logistics vehicles are traveling on the toll road. Half

of taxis are assumed to travel on the major roads. The length of the major roads in Makassar is about 130 km by

each direction, and the coverage of location information using 500 onboard terminals can be estimated to be one

per about 2.5 minutes. Also considering the averaging, the acquisition of traffic information every 15 minutes can

be assumed and the acquisition of traffic information with satisfactory accuracy can be expected.

Table 5-1 shows the breakdown of costs required for the initial investment and capital investment. The number of

sensors to be installed is calculated based on Figure 5-1 and Table 5-1. The server costs are mainly for the

collection, storage, management and analysis of data, and for the ITS core server, the capital investment costs are

reduced by using a cloud server.

The costs are recorded in two stages, the pilot system developed in Makassar and the enhancement cost for the

expansion to Jakarta starting from the third year. In addition, the system consists of the two parts of the

infrastructure sensors and the ITS core system which conducts the analysis of data obtained from the sensors. The

infrastructure sensors are assumed to be transferred to the government or Makassar after verification because they

are mainly installed in the public space such as roads. The governing body of this project continuously holds the

ITS core server and operates it as a basic system to analyze and process information from the sensors to offer

traffic information service. The ITS core server, which is built as the pilot system in Makassar, is moved to the full

scale operation after the extension of facilities and database when the system is expanded to Jakarta.

5-5

Table 5-1: Breakdown of costs required for initial investment

Cost items Amount

[Million Yen]

Detailed cost items Remarks

Cost for infrastructure fixed sensor equipment

372.5 Image sensor 120 units

Wireless packet sensor 40 units

Weather sensor 15 units

Weather radar 1 unit

Onboard terminal for GPS probe acquisition 750 units

Traffic counter collection server 1 set

Recorded image collection server 1 set

Wireless packet data collection server 1 set

Weather data collection server 1 set

Probe data collection server 1 set

Design cost for sensor systems and sensor data collection servers

350 Design of traffic counter data collection system

1 set

Design of image sensor and algorithm 1 set

Design of wireless packet analysis and traffic jam analysis

1 set

Design of recorded image collection system 1 set

Design of wireless packet sensor collection system

1 set

Design of weather data collection system 1 set

Design of probe data collection system 1 set

Signage 40 Travel time offering signage 1 set

Adjustment cost for construction work

108.5 Setup adjustment of fixed sensor, etc. 40 units

Setup adjustment of weather radar 1 place

Setup of information board 4 places

Materials for construction work 40 places

Subtotal 871

Cost for ITS core server

5 ITS core server and hardware 1 set

Building cost for ITS core system

250 Design cost for ITS core server 1 set

Map data maintenance and matching processing

1 set

Data analysis processing 1 set

Design cost for onboard business application

1 set

Domestic labor cost 100 Domestic labor cost until the start of the project

The first 2 years

Subtotal 355

5-6

Cost items Amount

[a million yen]

Detailed cost items Remarks

Enhancement cost for system expansion to Jakarta

157 Extension cost for ITS core server 1 set

Additional map data maintenance and matching processing

1 set

Server and hardware for data collection 5 units

Design of recorded image collection server 1 set

Subtotal 157

Source: Investigation Team

The operating costs of this project are summed up below. The labor costs for the initial two years of the project

start-up totals 10 million yen per year for two persons, including 1.5 million yen per year for one local employee

based on the average monthly income of Indonesia and 8.5 million yen per year for one resident employee from

Japan. From the third year when the full scale deployment will start in Jakarta, the estimated annual total is 20

million yen with four staff, including two local employees and two resident employees from Japan. In addition,

communication costs, etc. during the pilot system operation in Makassar are estimated as costs for the system

maintenance and operation, and from the third year when the operation will move to the full scale in Jakarta, 10

million yen per year are respectively included in the system maintenance cost and the system improvement cost

for dealing with customer needs.

As a result, the annual total is 18 million yen for each of the first and second year of the operational phase of the

pilot system in Makassar, and the operation cost totals 49 million yen per year from the third year when the full

scale deployment will start in Jakarta.

Qty Cost (thousand yen) Total Qty Cost (thousand yen) Total

Communication cost 40 12 480

Communication cost 16 2.4 38

Communication cost 750 2.4 1,800

System maintenance cost 1 1,000 1,000 1 10,000 10,000

System improvement cost 0 1 10,000 10,000

Working cost (cost of vehicles etc) 1 3,000 3,000 1 6,000 6,000

Office cost 1 2,000 2,000 1 3,000 3,000

Local labor cost 1 8,500 8,500 2 8,500 17,000

Local labor cost(local employment) 1 1,500 1,500 2 1,500 3,000

Total operational cost (annual) 18,318 49,000

ItemsMakassar (1st, 2nd year) Jakarta (3rd year and later)

5-7

To summarize the above, the capital investment and annual operating cost from the start of this project up to the

10th year will be as follows.

Unit: Million Yen

Project year 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Initial investment in infrastructure sensors of Makassar pilot

system871

Initial investment in the ITS core sysytem of Makassar pilot

system355

Investment in the ITS core sysytem enhancement for Jakarta full

scale operation157

Operating cost 18 18 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49

Total cash-out 1,244 18 206 49 49 49 49 49 49 49

Accumulated cash-out 1,244 1,263 1,469 1,518 1,567 1,616 1,665 1,714 1,763 1,812

5-8

Overview of Preliminary Financial and Economic Analysis Results (3)

Prior conditions of analysis ①

The following is a summary of the prior conditions for preliminary financial and economic analysis.

Items Conditions

Price Rate as of December, 2014. Calculated based on Japanese yen.

As of December 21, 2014. 1 yen = 103.96 Indonesian rupiah

It changed between 98 - 120 yen in the Indonesian rupiah / yen chart of 2010 - 2014.

Project period Starts in 2015 and ends in 2024. Assumed period is 10 years.

Implementation

schedule

STEP1 : Pilot system building in Makassar 2015 - 2016

STEP2 : Project expansion to Jakarta 2017 - 2024

Revenue assumption 1) Sale of a traffic control system application to logistics companies and taxis in Makassar and

Jakarta

2) Sale of a traffic information providing application to general drivers

3) Provision of charged traffic information for corporations

The prices of applications are 1) the monthly fee of 2,000 yen/vehicle and 2) the monthly fee

of 100 yen/vehicle

Detailed information is described in the next section.

Discount rate of NPV

calculation

Policy interest rate of Bank Indonesia was raised in November 18, 2014 and revised to 7.75%.

Since the announced forecast inflation rate at the end of 2014 is 7.9 %, it is set to 8.0 % in

view of these circumstances.

Growth rate of

vehicles

The growth rate in vehicle ownership from 2005 to 2009 was 4.6 % - 7.1 %.

5 % of the safe side is set in consideration of the reduction of fuel subsidies in the future

because auto sales for vehicle ownership in 2012 were 6.2 %.

5-9

Figure 5-3: Transition of currency exchange rates of Indonesian rupiah

Source: QUICK Corp.

Revenue assumption ②

Prior conditions for revenue a)

Assumed revenue from the implementation of this project is the following three businesses.

i) Sale of the traffic control system application to logistics companies and taxis in Makassar and Jakarta

ii) Sale of the traffic information providing application to general drivers

iii) Provision of charged traffic information for corporations

For the selling price of the application of i), a local market survey showed the results that the monthly fee for one

vehicle was between 2,000 - 3,000 yen and the annual amount 24,000 yen was assumed based on this. The price is

higher compared to the local commodity prices or the service price in Japan, however, it is assumed that this is for

the larger cost reduction effect by avoiding traffic congestion than that in Japan because the traffic congestion are

heavier and the travel distance of commercial vehicles is longer than those in Japan.

With regard to ii), we set the monthly fee of 100 Yen and annual fee of 1,200 Yen based on the market survey

conducted at the site (Chapter 3(3)①b)ii)). While the possible competitive services by Google and WAZE are

offered free of cost, information services offered by the project are highly accurate traffic information and weather

information, and we think that it is competitive based on the results of market survey.

Corporations to purchase traffic information shown in iii) are assumed to be broadcasting stations, internet

providers, transportation companies, etc., and the sale to 2 corporations in Makassar and 10 corporations in

Jakarta was assumed from the market survey. Each of information providing fees was assumed to be 1 million yen

per year in Makassar and 3 million yen per year in Jakarta. These are the prices set by reference to the monthly

Unit: Yen

5-10

basic information providing fees between 170,000 yen and 340,000 yen (a fee is added according to the provided

information) of the Japan Road Traffic Information Center.

Trial calculation of revenue b)

Table 5-2 shows the revenue assumption calculated on the basis of the above.

Table 5-2: Trial calculation results of incomes


[Application sales]

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Unit

5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% %

Logistics (truck, etc.) 19,200 20,160 21,168 22,226 23,338 24,505 25,730 27,016 28,367 29,786 Vehicle

Taxi 850 893 937 984 1,033 1,085 1,139 1,196 1,256 1,319 Vehicle

General vehicle 178,000 186,900 196,245 206,057 216,360 227,178 238,537 250,464 262,987 276,136 Vehicle

Logistics (truck, etc.) 150,100 157,605 165,485 173,760 182,447 191,570 201,148 211,206 221,766 232,854 Vehicle

Taxi 27,300 28,665 30,098 31,603 33,183 34,842 36,585 38,414 40,335 42,351 Vehicle

General vehicle 1,396,000 1,465,800 1,539,090 1,616,045 1,696,847 1,781,689 1,870,774 1,964,312 2,062,528 2,165,654 Vehicle

Logistics company / taxi 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% 6.00% 7.00% 8.00% 9.00% %

General vehicle 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% 3.50% 4.00% 4.50% %

Logistics company / taxi 0.00% 0.00% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% 3.50% 4.00% 4.50% %

General vehicle 0.00% 0.00% 0.50% 0.75% 1.00% 1.25% 1.50% 1.75% 2.00% 2.25% %

Number of Makassar logistics apps to be purchased 0 202 423 667 934 1,225 1,544 1,891 2,269 2,681 Package

Number of Makassar taxi apps to be purchased 0 9 19 30 41 54 68 84 100 119 Package

Number of Makassar general vehicle apps to be purchased 0 935 1,962 3,091 4,327 5,679 7,156 8,766 10,519 12,426 Package

Number of Jakarta logistics apps to be purchased 0 0 1,655 2,606 3,649 4,789 6,034 7,392 8,871 10,478 Package

Number of Jakarta taxi apps to be purchased 0 0 301 474 664 871 1,098 1,344 1,613 1,906 Package

Number of Jakarta general vehicle apps to be purchased 0 0 7,695 12,120 16,968 22,271 28,062 34,375 41,251 48,727 Package

Logistics apps (2,000 yen per month) 0 5 10 16 22 29 37 45 54 64 Million Yen

Taxi apps (2,000 yen per month) 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 Million Yen

General vehicle apps (100 yen per month) 0 1 2 4 5 7 9 11 13 15 Million Yen

Logistics apps (2,000 yen per month) 0 0 40 63 88 115 145 177 213 251 Million Yen

Taxi apps (2,000 yen per month) 0 0 7 11 16 21 26 32 39 46 Million Yen

General vehicle apps (100 yen per month) 0 0 9 15 20 27 34 41 50 58 Million Yen

0 6 69 109 152 200 252 309 371 438 Million Yen

[Traffic information sales to corporations]

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Unit

Makassar Number of corporations to buy traffic inforamtion 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Corporation

Jakarta Number of corporations to buy traffic inforamtion 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 10 Corporation

Makassar Information sales (1 million yen / year) 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Million Yen

Jakarta Information sales (3 million yen / year) 0 0 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 30 Million Yen

0 2 8 11 14 17 20 23 26 32 Million Yen

[Total]

0 8 77 120 166 217 272 332 397 470 Million Yen

(2) Total information sales to corporations

Total sales (1)+(2)

Number of app sales

in Makassar

Number of app sales

in Jakarta

Sales in Makassar

Sales in Jakarta

(1) Total application sales

Project year

Project year

Annual growth rate of vehicles

Number of vehicles

in Makassar

Number of vehicles

in Jakarta

App purchase rate in

Makassar

App purchase rate in

Jakarta

5-11

Financial analysis ③

When all payment of the pilot system in Makassar is self-pay (Case 1) a)

We assumed the project to be performed with PPP and included all investment in the pilot system built in

Makassar as self-pay of private business to calculate FIRR and NPV by using the capital investment and annual

operating costs of this project added up in (1) as cash-out.

As a result, FIRR was 2.46% and NPV with 8% discount rate was -373 million yen, which clearly showed that

realizing the project was difficult.

This indicates that a model cannot be normally established when the private business develops all of the traffic

observation infrastructure sensors on the roads which should be burdened as public works and bears these initial

costs in the revenue of traffic information providing business.

In Japan, the Japan Road Traffic Information Center (JARTIC) has been providing traffic information services,

however, development costs of traffic observation infrastructure such as sensors installed on the roads are a

burden of the road administrator or the like, not a business operator burden. We think that it is a logical conclusion

that it is difficult to establish business with the self-pay of all development costs of traffic observation

infrastructure in the regions where the market of the traffic information is in its infancy like developing countries.

Therefore, we verified the possibility of establishment as the project with PPP based on the assumption that the

Indonesian government partly bears the costs of the pilot system and buys out the infrastructure after the

development.

When 50% of the costs of Makassar infrastructure sensors are the payment of the Indonesian government (Case b)

2)

Of the 1,240 million yen investment in Makassar pilot system in the first year, the infrastructure sensor part such

as fixed sensors and their control system is 871 million yen.

The table below shows the cash flow when the Indonesian government bears 50% of this cost, that is to say, when

the government buys out the infrastructure sensors for 50% price of this building costs in the second year of the

completion of the infrastructure sensors.

Project year 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Cash-in 0 8 77 120 166 217 272 332 397 470

Cash-out 1,244 18 206 49 49 49 49 49 49 49

Profit and loss (cash flow) -1,244 -10 -129 71 117 168 223 283 348 421

Accumulated profit and loss -1,244 -1,254 -1,383 -1,312 -1,195 -1,027 -804 -521 -173 248

FIRR= 2.46%

8% NPV= -373

Unit: a million yen

5-12

According to this result, FIRR is 8.0%, which is over the policy interest rate in Indonesia and equivalent to the set

long-term discount rate of 8%, and NPV becomes zero. In general, the capital opportunity cost in Indonesia is

considered to around 15 % and it seems that it is difficult to perform the project with PPP with the assumption of

the private investment.

In addition, we performed the sensitivity analysis of the impact by the changes in the Indonesian government

payment rate for infrastructure sensors on the profitability.

This result shows that FIRR is 16 % when the Indonesian government bears all of the Makassar infrastructure

sensor costs, and FIRR is thought to exceed a typical hurdle rate for private firms in Indonesia.

PPP : Indonesian government payment rate for infrastructure sensors 50 %(buy-out in the second year) Unit: a million yen

Project year 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024



(3)Indonesian government payment 436

Profit and loss (1)-(2)+(3) -1,244 425 -129 71 117 168 223 283 348 421

Accumulated profit and loss -1,244 -819 -948 -877 -759 -591 -368 -85 262 683

FIRR= 8.00%8% NPV= 0

Payment rate FIRR NPV（8%）

0% 2.5% -373

10% 3.4% -299

20% 4.5% -224

30% 5.6% -149

40% 6.7% -75

50% 8.0% 0

60% 9.4% 75

70% 10.8% 149

80% 12.4% 224

90% 14.1% 299

100% 16.0% 373

Unit ％ Million yen

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Changes in FIRR (%) by the government payment rate

for infrastructure sensors

（Govenment Payment Rate)

（IRR)

5-13

When NEDO international energy consumption efficiency technology and system demonstration project is c)

applied (Case 3)

NEDO international energy consumption efficiency technology and system demonstration project is a business

system to support demonstration projects with the purpose of applying technologies in the energy field in Japan

and we performed a trial calculation of the balance of payments when this project is applied.

The following is the business balance with the application of this project when the ITS core system can be

acquired for the remaining book value (55 %). This result shows that FIRR is 15.3 % and NPV is 235 million yen.

Application of the NEDO energy consumption efficiency project Unit: a million yen

Project year 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024



(3)NEDO payment 1,226 18

(4)System acquisition at the book value 674.3

Profit and loss (1)-(2)+(3)-(4) -18 0 -803 71 117 168 223 283 348 421

Accumulated profit and loss -18 -18 -821 -751 -633 -465 -242 41 389 809

FIRR= 15.31%8% NPV= 235

5-14

Economic analysis ④

The implementation of this project can achieve to ease traffic congestion or avoid driving in the traffic congestion

spots and generate the following economic effects in the targeted regions.

Effect of fuel savings

Effect of travel time reduction (Effect of labor cost reduction)

These effects are created not only for the vehicles receiving traffic information via this project and the vehicles

with proper traffic control, but also vehicles running all over the region by rightly delivering traffic information

via mass media, the Internet, etc. However, in this survey, we calculated the above effects only for the targeted

vehicles for delivering traffic information because they were in the range of more specific impacts.

Firstly, for the vehicle travel distance and the occurrence rate of traffic congestion in Makassar and Jakarta, we

made settings as follows based on the results, etc. from the operations test of the traffic control application to taxis

running in Makassar because there was no accurate statistical information about them.

Taxis driving in Makassar area run 300 km - 350 km per day.

Logistics vehicles driving in Makassar area run 160 km in total, which is 2 round trips including 40 km of

each way and 80 km of both ways.

General vehicles in Makassar run 80 km per day, which is a half distance of logistics vehicles.

Vehicles in Jakarta are assumed to run a half travel distance of each vehicle type in Makassar because their

running efficiency has been lowered due to traffic congestion.

The traffic jam rate in Jakarta is assumed to be 20% of all travel distance base on the traffic jam map of

Google Map, and the traffic jam rate in Makassar is assumed to be10 %, which is a half of that in Jakarta .

20% of traffic congestion is assumed to be avoidable by the delivery of traffic information and traffic

support system offered by this project.

For the fuel saving by avoiding traffic congestion sections, the gasoline saving generated by avoiding

traffic congestion is calculated based on the speed 10 km/hour of in the traffic congestions, the fuel

consumption of 5 km/L for logistics vehicles and the fuel consumption of 10 km/L for taxis and general

vehicles.

The labor cost reduction generated by avoiding traffic congestions for the time saving by avoiding traffic

congestion is calculated by using 12,237 rupiah of the hourly wage which is calculated from the minimum

wage in Jakarta.

To summarize the above results, the annual economic effects per vehicle in Makassar and Jakarta are as follows.

Savings are 32,848 yen per year for a logistics vehicle, 43,684 yen per year for a taxi and 11,649 yen per year for

a general vehicle. These economic effects per vehicle are higher compared to 24,000 yen per year of the

application usage fee for a logistics vehicle and a taxi and 1,200 yen per year of the application usage fee for a

general vehicle, and the B/C by the introduction of the project is high even when they are compared to each

vehicle.

5-15

Secondly, we calculated the whole economic effects as below by applying this economic effect per vehicle to the

vehicle with the application.

As a result, the economic internal rate (EIRR) of this project was 22.88 %, the NPV was 1,487 million yen when

the discount rate was 8% and the total B / C of the project period was 2.96.

This figure of EIRR indicates that the project effects are significantly high because the effects of traffic jam

measures in Indonesia are greatly large, and we can judge that the project promises full effectiveness even when

compared to the capital opportunity cost (around 15%) in Indonesia and is feasible.

Region Vehicle types

Daily

travel

distance

Annual

travel

distance

Traffic jam

rate

Traffic jam

avoidance

rate

Traffic jam

avoidance

distance

Fuel

consumpti

on in

traffic

congestio

nection

Fuel

saving by

avoiding

traffic

congestio

n

Speed

during

traffic jam

Time

saving by

avoiding

traffic

congestio

n

Economic

effect per

Vehicle

Logistics vehicle 160 58,400 10% 20% 1,168 5 234 10 117 32,848

Taxi 300 109,500 10% 20% 2,190 10 219 10 219 43,684

General vehicle 80 29,200 10% 20% 584 10 58 10 58 11,649

Logistics vehicle 80 29,200 20% 20% 1,168 5 234 10 117 32,848

Taxi 150 54,750 20% 20% 2,190 10 219 10 219 43,684

General vehicle 40 14,600 20% 20% 584 10 58 10 58 11,649

km/day km/year ％％ km/year km/L L/yaer Km/ｈ Time/year Yen/year

Makassar

Jakarta

Unit:

Unit: Million Yen

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Logistics vehicle 0 7 14 22 31 40 51 62 75 88

Taxi 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 4 4 5

General vehicle 0 11 23 36 50 66 83 102 123 145

Logistics vehicle 0 0 54 86 120 157 198 243 291 344

Taxi 0 0 13 21 29 38 48 59 70 83

General vehicle 0 0 90 141 198 259 327 400 481 568

0 18 195 307 429 564 710 870 1,044 1,233

1,244 18 206 49 49 49 49 49 49 49

-1,244 0 -11 258 380 515 661 821 995 1,184

EIRR= 22.88%8% NPV= 1,487

B/C= 2.96

Makassar

Jakarta

B. Total benefits

C. Investment and costs

B-C

Project year

Chapter 6 Planned Project Schedule

6-1

Project Implementation Schedule Overview (1)

This project combines data gathered from sensors established along the roadside with data from terminals

equipped on vehicles to contribute to the reduction of greenhouse gases and environmental improvement by

energy conservation through reliable traffic information acquisition and provision, and will be demonstrated in

Makassar city, Indonesia. Additionally, it will create a traffic information provision service, demonstrate a

sustainable business model, and aim to expand across Indonesia.

For the first 2 years following the beginning of the project, demonstrations will be carried out in Makassar.

Systems and sensor development and infrastructure maintenance will be advanced. After ascertaining the effects

on environmental improvement and profitability, commence expansion after the 3rd year in Jakarta, the largest

city in Indonesia. For dissemination development, following the results of the demonstrations in Makassar,

enlighten and educate local government institutions and corporations through seminars.

Table 6-1: Project Implementation Schedule Overview

Years after project

commencement

1 2 3 4 5-

Stage Makassar demonstrations Develop to Jakarta

System development

Procurement of sensors and

equipment installation

Effect verification

ASP service commencement

Data provision service

Local education

Operation preparation period of

joint company

Independent operation of joint

company


6-2

Project Implementation Schedule Details (2)

System Development Schedule ①

Develop a system to collect, analyze, and provide traffic information. In the 1st half of the 1st year of the project,

define requirements and commence designs centered on the Japanese side. Regarding the details on specs, etc.,

decide upon following discussions with local institutions, and complete development in the 1st year. After the 3rd

year of the project, expansion into Jakarta is planned, and system expansion development for this will commence.

Consultation Schedule with Local Institutions ②

In the 1st year of the project, submit specific plans for systems and sensor introduction and installation

construction plans, and implement so the system is operational after system development is complete. Report on

the results of the project effectiveness verification in the 2nd year of the project, and request assistance for future

dissemination deployment.

Project Effectiveness Verification Schedule ③

In the 2nd year, when system development and introduction is complete, commence project effectiveness

verification. Specifically, “the effects on environmental improvement”, “traffic information accuracy”, and

“business potential” following the introduction of the system will be verified.

Verification of Effects on Environmental Improvement a)

Commence verification of effects on energy consumption and greenhouse gas reduction in the 2nd year, when

system construction is completed. To verify the effects, measure the types of information provided and the timing

of them as parameters. Following the verification results, explain to government related institutions, hold seminars,

and aim to spread values on site.

Verification of Traffic Information Accuracy b)

Continue the development of analysis techniques of the relationship between combinations of sensors for

collecting traffic information and the accuracy of traffic information after system construction, and carry out

quantitative studies while taking actual measurements on site.

Verification of Business Potential c)

In the 2nd year, when system construction will be completed, commence an ASP service business to raise

short-term profits for entities that will be collecting and providing various traffic data, and a traffic information

provision service business in anticipation of future dissemination deployment. The former is a delivery and fleet

6-3

management service for logistics companies, and a dispatch and fleet management service targeted at taxi

operators. The latter is a traffic information provision service targeted at content providers and various media, and

will combine surveillance images and information regarding spot traffic volume and speed from image sensors,

section travel time information from wireless packet sensors, and meteorological data and forecast data collected

from weather sensors, and will quantitatively be analyzed to ascertain what information contents can create the

most revenue.

Plans for Dissemination Development ④

With the effectiveness verification results carried out by the 2nd year of the demonstration project, and after

briefing government institutions, commence preparations for establishing a joint company as an entity to handle

traffic information provision when the profitability as a business is verified. Simultaneously educate on know-how

for system construction and installation construction to local toll road operators, the government, and stakeholders

such as general citizens through seminars. Set the term between the 3rd year of the demonstration project to

follow-up project period as the joint company operation preparation period, and continue joint company education

and educational activities in Indonesia related to ITS, and commence independent operation of the joint company

after the follow-up project finishes.

After the 3rd year of the demonstration project, based on the system template constructed in Makassar, it is

projected that the dissemination deployment will take place preferentially in Jakarta, where the introduction of

ITS is expected to be highly effective.

With regards to system operation, although it will be handled by a domestic group of corporations with the

Investigation Team at the center, when the effects of the project can be anticipated to a certain degree, it is thought

of that the establishment of the joint company in conjunction with local corporations is crucial to the success of

this project.

6-4

Table 6-2: Schedule of Project Implementation

After Project

Commencement 1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year-

System

development

Consultations

with local

institutions

Effect

verification

Dissemination

deployment


System design

Machinery design

Machinery development arrangement

System development System Improvement

Submission of the introduction

plan

Verification of the effect of the improvement of the

environment

Verification of the accuracy of traffic information

Explanation to related

agencies

Installation work

Verification of business

potential

Start of ASP service and the service of the provision of traffic

information (Makassar City)

Development to Jakarta

Formalization Education at the region

Preparation of the incorporation of the Joint Company Management of the Joint Company

Chapter 7 Implementing Organization

7-1

Overview of the Implementing Agencies of the Host Country (1)

The National Development Planning Agency which is the central government, Ministry of Public Works

Directorate General of Roads, Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology, and Margautama

Nusantara which is a toll road operation company are expected as implementing agencies for this project in the

Republic of Indonesia.

Central Government of the Republic of Indonesia ①

Government Agencies of the Republic of Indonesia related to ITS are shown as the Figure 7-1. National

Development Planning Agency controls the planning or the budget of each ministry. Ministry of Public works

Directorate General of Roads is in charge of the entire road administration and manages the ITS infrastructure

such as sensor and systems. Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology administers the ITS

technology’s related support and pilot projects under the control of the Ministry of Research and Development.

Figure 7-1: Outline of the Republic of Indonesia Government Agencies related to ITS

Source: Investigation Team, from Hearing

Margautama Nusantara ②

Margautama Nusantara (MUN) was one of the affiliated companies that operated the toll way business of

Nusantara Infrastructure (NI), and in 2013 it was acquired with 20 % investment by Capita Advisors Partners Asia

(Cap Asia), which is a holding company, and became an operational company that controls the entire toll ways

owned by Nusantara Infrastructure. Margautama Nusantara is operating two toll ways in Jakarta and two other toll

ways in the target city for the project, Makassar.

7-2

Figure 7-2: Corporate Overview of Nusantara Infrastructure

Source: Prepared by Investigation Team based on the annual report and hearing.

Organizational Structure of the Project Implementation (2)

Envisioned implementation structure for this project is shown as the Figure 7-3. It is a plan that Ministry of Public

Works or Ministry of Research, Technology and Higher Education will be a counterpart of the Japanese

government and expected to work on the project such as the instruction for the project execution and asset

management at the direction of National Development Planning Agency. Agency for the Assessment and

Application of Technology will join the project as a technical support for ITS.

Since the MUN is primarily operating the toll ways at the project area, Makassar city, the company will take

charge of the installation of infrastructure and system management. Installation of sensors into the general roads

requires support from Baray, Besar, Jaran, National, State government, and city government depending on road

categories.

Nusantara

Infrastructure

Marga Utama

Nusantara

Bosowa Marga

Nusantara

Jalan Tol

Seksi Empat

Bintaro

Serpong Damai

Jakarta Lingkar

Maratsatu

Jasa Marga

Jakarta Toll road Business

Makassar Toll roadBusiness

98%

80%

88%

97%

Toll road Business Control

25%

Toll road Business

Capital Advisors

Partners Asia

20%

7-3

Figure 7-3: Envisioned implementation structure for this project


Capability of the Project Implementing Agencies of the Host Country (3)

Central Government of the Republic of Indonesia ①

Ministry of Public Works, Directorate General of Roads a)

Directorate General of Roads is an agency which is in charge of the road administration, planning technical

specifications for infrastructure and so on in the Republic of Indonesia. It is important for this project to

continuously manage the introduced ITS infrastructures and we believe that Directorate General of Roads is the

best fit to take its role since it is managing the assets of toll roads and general roads.

Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology b)

Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology is in charge of technology development,

implementation for pilot projects, and so on for the Republic of Indonesia. It has been proposed a scheme for the

technical support related to ITS technology for this project.

It shows an interest especially in the standardization of CCTV camera network and has a capability to manage the

ITS project with its technologies for the Republic of Indonesia.

Agreement

Consignment

MUN

National Development Planning Board

Ministry of Public Works

Or

Ministry of Research, Technology

and Higher Education

Agency for the Assessment and

Application of Technology

Indonesian government

Supervision

Technical support

related to ITS

Counterpart

Asset underwriting and

management

System operation

Demonstration site provision

Equipment provision

Infrastructure installation work

Cooperative instructions

Balai Besar Jalan Nasional

South Sulawesi government

Makassar City Government

(National Road)

(State Road)

(Municipal road)

Demonstration site provision

Equipment provision

Infrastructure installation work

Japanese Corporations

Japanese Government

Agreement

7-4

National Development Planning Agency c)

The agency responsible for planning the national development projects of the Republic of Indonesia, with the role

of summarizing the various ministries.

In implementation of the project, the agency can be relied upon for designation of the counterpart ministry,

designation of cooperation with related ministries, budget planning, and a wide range of other support.

Margautama Nusantara ②

The financial status of NI, the parent company of MUN is shown as the Table 7-1. The business has been steadily

growing and it achieved 425.9 billion Rupiah with an increase of 57.5% over the previous year for the sales and

128.5 billion Rupiah with an increase of 23.2% over the previous year for the operating income. It also achieved

black numbers for the net income with 80.7 billion Rupiah for the two consecutive years. Over 70% of the NI’s

entire sales of 370.4 billion Rupiah is by the sales of toll way business and the contribution of MUN, which is

holding the toll road business of NI, is significant.

Toll roads managed by MUN are shown as the Table 7-2. Jakarta beltway is owned by the government-owned

company, JASA MARGA with 75% of its stock and the traffic has been fairly growing, which has resulted in the

sales expansion even though MUN is not involved in the management.

MUN has introduced the simple traffic information acquisition system as a trial by using the location information

obtained from GPS that is equipped into the company-owned patrol car. The company has been also promoting

the installation of CCTV camera into the own toll ways and the bulletin board to provide the traffic information.

In addition the company has developed a comprehensive cooperative relationship with Makassar city.

For the project implementation, the company shows an intention to utilize the information board and to support

the construction to install the sensors as well as to provide its own optical communication line and CCTV screen.

From the above reasons, it can conclude that the company has capability as an implementation agency in the host

country in terms of financially and technologically.

Table 7-1: Financial Status of NI

Fiscal Year 2010 2011 2012 2013

Sales [billion Rupiah] 187.618 232.000 270.397 425.861

Operating Income [billion Rupiah] 68.847 88.027 104.039 128.474

Net Income [billion Rupiah] -37.748 -27.865 48.163 80.654

Source: NI Annual Report 2013

7-5

Table 7-2: Toll roads managed by MUN

Route

Operating

Distance

[Km]

Traffic Volume (2013) Management Company

Bintaro Serpong

Expressway

(Jakarta)

7.25

53,800 vehicles/day

(+6.89% vs the

previous year)

PT Bintaro Serpong Damai

Beltway

(Jakarta) 9.7

(+17.8% vs the

previous year)

PT Jakarta Lingkar Baratsatu

Harbor Road

(Makassar) 5.95

54,035 vehicles/day

(+11.92% vs the

previous year)

PT BOSOWA MARGA NUSANTARA

Airport Road

(Makassar) 11.57

35,574 vehicles/day

(+15.83% vs previous

year)

PT JALAN TOL SEKSI EMPAT

Source: Prepared by Investigation Team based on the annual report 2013.

Chapter 8 Technical Advantages of Japanese Company

8-1

Forms in which it is envisioned Japanese businesses will participate in (1)planning

In this project, it is envisioned that the joint venture which will be the business operation core will be established

in cooperation with local businesses, and traffic information provision service projects will be developed at the

actual location in Indonesia. It is envisioned that Japanese businesses will employ ITS technology and know-how

cultivated in Japan as strengths and participate in planning for not only the joint venture company which will be

the core of the business, but also for each of the stakeholders which will be the target of the services. It is

envisioned that participation in planning will take various forms, such as those outlined below,

Provision of sensors and systems ①

Sensors which collect traffic information and systems which manage the sensors will be provided to the joint

venture company in line with the expansion of the business. Further, Japanese businesses providing sensors and

systems necessary for the Indonesian government to promote the spread of and development of ITS can also be

considered. It is thought that in this project, approaches that lead to acting as one with the Indonesian government

in advancing the introduction of technology and forming an ITS de facto in Indonesia are important.

Provision of applications ②

It is envisioned that the joint venture company will sell applications which are necessary in expanding the services,

such as dispatch control and navigation applications. Further, provision to general drivers in the form of smart

phone applications and direct provision to taxi business operators and logistics business operators of dispatch

control and operation control applications can also be considered.

Provision of contents ③

Concerning information for which advanced analysis is necessary, such as weather forecasts, it is thought that

Japanese businesses will provide the information to the joint venture company as contents based on data gathered

locally. It is envisioned that the joint venture company will process the provided contents into forms that conform

to local standards, and sell the contents.

Education and consulting ④

In order to make efforts to promote the spread of ITS in Indonesia, consulting regarding technology and services

will be carried out for the joint venture company which will develop the business and for business operators,

administrative agencies, and other entities which wish to utilize the joint venture company. Concerning education,

for example, it is envisioned that seminars regarding the beneficial effects of introducing ITS and ITS introduction

methods will be held, and participants will be accepted for training aimed at personnel development for local

people. Further, support, education for local staff, and so on concerning system maintenance, construction, and

8-2

improvement will also be carried out.

Through the measures outlined above, the continued participation of Japanese businesses in local planning in not

just the area of equipment and materials, such as the provision of sensors and systems, but also the area of

personnel will be aimed at.

Financing ⑤

The joint venture company which will conduct the traffic information services will be established in cooperation

with local businesses, and participation in planning for business operation will be carried out in the form of

finance provision.

As outlined above, it is thought that by being both directly and indirectly involved in traffic information provision

service businesses centering on the joint venture company, efforts can be made to promote export of not only

Japanese products, but also technology and know-how cultivated in Japan. Envisioned forms of participation in

planning by Japanese businesses are shown in Figure 8-1.

Figure 8-1: Envisioned forms of participation in planning by Japanese businesses


8-3

Advantage of Japanese businesses in executing the relevant projects (2)

The relevant projects will provide imaging sensors, wireless packet sensors, and weather sensors as ITS

infrastructure on roadsides, and will gather, analyze, and provide traffic information provided from these sensors

as well as traffic information from vehicle probe data obtained from smartphones and GPS onboard devices.

Japan, which has higher population density compared to other countries, has been working on solving problems

ahead of the world as a developed country facing the transport issues. Japan has a long history of ITS, and

research and development started from 1970s, and both public and private sectors have worked hand-in-hand so

far for developing ITS infrastructure. Over the years, Japanese companies have accumulated the experience of

operating the system, and they have an edge in terms of technical capabilities and quality compared to overseas

companies. In recent years, companies like INRIX and TomTom in the western countries have started offering

traffic information based on probe data, and Google and WAZE have started offering free transportation

information services using position information collected from word of mouth and smartphone. However,

cooperative system proposed in this project using Japan’s superior ITS infrastructure and based on the

combination of data obtained from ITS infrastructure and probe data is expected to large difference in information

accuracy as compared to the traffic information services based on probe data, especially, in the initial stage of

service. In the system that is focused on probe data, accuracy of information cannot be guaranteed until a large

number of vehicles become problem vehicles (vehicles that provide the position information to provider). Against

this, when using road side ITS infrastructure, irrespective of the number of probe vehicles, it is possible to offer a

certain level of services only with the information obtained from the road side equipment. Therefore, it is

competitive from the standpoint of temporal superiority over the service offered by INRIX and TomTom.

In systems which attach importance to probe data, the accuracy of information cannot be guaranteed until many

vehicles become probe vehicles (vehicles which provide location information to providers). In contrast, in cases

where roadside ITS infrastructure is utilized, regardless of the amount of probe vehicles, it is possible to achieve a

certain level of service just by using information obtained from roadside devices. In this respect, it is considered

that compared to services promoted by INRIX, Inc. and TomTom International BV., Japanese businesses have a

competitive edge in terms of temporal superiority.

Further, Japan is a nation where many disasters such as meteorological disasters occur, and in terms of road traffic

control carried out under conditions of meteorological risk, compared to countries in the West, Japan possesses a

large amount of knowledge. Similarly, in Indonesia, in particular, floods caused by squalls and so on and traffic

congestion and accidents that occur along with the floods have become a social problem. Therefore, it is thought

that by utilizing meteorological risk management know-how, the superiority of Japanese businesses in the relevant

projects will further increase.

Japanese businesses are not only superior in terms of equipment and materials, such as sensors and systems. Many

businesses in Japan possess traffic observation and analysis technology, road operation know-how, and personnel

training and consulting know-how, and have achieved many results, such as inviting overseas technical experts to

8-4

their companies. In order to promote ITS in the emerging countries of Southeast Asia, it is important to provide

planning, infrastructure development, services, education, personnel training, and so on as an integrated series,

utilizing results achieved in Japan and know-how cultivated in Japan as strengths. It is thought that the

wide-ranging technology and know-how possessed by Japanese businesses gives them superiority and a

competitive edge compared to overseas companies.

8-5

Measures necessary to promote the placement of orders with Japanese (3)businesses

Project SWOT analysis, based on this inquiry ①

Based on the results of this inquiry, a project SWOT analysis was conducted, and measures to promote the

placement of orders with Japanese businesses were considered.

Table 8-1: SWOT analysis for this project

Strength (S)

- Ability to provide

high-value-added traffic

information

- Advanced domestic ITS

technology and know-how

Weaknesses (W)

- Initial investment for business

startup

- Uncertainty involved in overseas

businesses

Opportunities (O)

- Existence of local companies that

will cooperate which are positive

about ITS introduction

- There is a need for businesses that

provide services which utilize

traffic information

- Environment in which cooperation

of government offices and regional

governments can be obtained

Standardization strategy (S x O)

- Formulation of plan for

standardization, in cooperation with

local research organizations

- Start up business at early state

Partner strategy (W x O)

- Cooperate with local businesses to

set up joint venture company

- Form network of contacts in

cooperation with local businesses

Threats (T)

- European and North American

businesses have already developed

businesses in other regions

- Traffic provision services have

low level of understanding of

location of project

Promotion strategy (S x T)

- Hold seminars at the location of

the project

- Educate overseas technical experts

and accept them into training

Strategy of cooperation between

governments (W x O)

Execution of government to

government projects


Strategies necessary to promote the placement of orders ②

Based on the results of the SWOT analysis, it is thought that employing the following four strategies will lead to

promoting the placement of orders with Japanese businesses.

Standardization strategy a)

In this inquiry it became clear that the office which makes practical use of technology assessment is a core

organization which unifies ITS technology in Indonesia and coordinates various related government offices. The

wish to standardize systems which have been introduced independently has been communicated to us. It is

necessary to gain a full understanding of issues related to ITS technology at an early stage, and promote policies

for standardization in a way such that underlying technology and system technology possessed by Japanese

businesses is utilized.

8-6

Partner strategy b)

In Indonesia, the introduction of ITS to toll roads is left to local toll road business operators. Therefore, it is

necessary to view local toll road business operators as partners in realizing a sustainable business that is not

limited to just introducing a system, and to act in cooperation with them with the aim of achieving implementation

of the project. Toll road business operators also have relatively close ties with regional governments, and it is

thought they will play an important role in acquisition of local information and formation of networks of contacts.

Further, it is important to form policies for encouraging government investment in ITS infrastructure, which has a

highly public nature.

Promotion strategy c)

In the Republic of Indonesia, there is still a low level of understanding of ITS. In promoting projects and business

in the location of the project, it is necessary to spread advanced ITS technology and its effects through the location

of the project. The project site will be made an ITS technology showroom, and seminars for spreading technology

and so on throughout the location of the project will be held on a continuous basis after completion of the project

as well. In addition, it is thought that it is important for Japan to take the lead in conducting support for promoting

technical personnel training for the purpose of conducting operation. An example of such support would be

inviting local technicians to Japan.

Strategy of cooperation between governments d)

It is thought that it is important to build a relationship between governments which enables both countries to

obtain benefits through the introduction of ITS. It is considered that starting up projects which enable Japanese

businesses to smoothly enter overseas businesses is also one method of achieving this.

Reproduction Prohibited

(Style 2)

Page Chart No.

--- ---

ES-3 ---

ES-10 ---

1-14 Figure 1-5

1-17 Figure 1-7

3-33 Figure 3-27

3-38 Figure 3-29

4-10 Figure 4-9

5-3 Figure 5-2

Traffic Volume, target point for travel speed investigation and summary result

Equipment installation plan

List of Secondary Use Prohibeted

Study on Economic Partnership Projects in Developing Countries

Study on the Intelligent Transport System (ITS) in Makassar, the Republic of Indonesia

OMRON SOCIAL SOLUTIONS Co., Ltd.

Traffic Conditions in Makassar

Title

Project Map

Equipment Installation

Map Indicating Business Implementation Points

Peripheral Situation of Makassar

Operation Route of Distribution Vehicles

Device Installation Plan

Documents

Study on the Intelligent Transport System (ITS) in … on Economic Partnership Projects in Developing Countries in FY2014 Study on the Intelligent Transport System (ITS) in Makassar,