Study of Changes in Climate Parameters at Regional Level ... · Homogeneous rainfall zones of India. The numbers inside the zones indicate mean monsoon rainfall (mm), standard deviation

Study of Changes in Climate Parameters at Regional Level:

Indian Scenarios

S K DashCentre for Atmospheric Sciences

Indian Institute of Technology Delhi

Climate Change and Animal Populations - The golden toad, last seen in Costa Rica’s cloud forest in 1989, is believed to be extinct. The ecology of the cloud forest depends on the frequent formation of clouds and mist. Warming of the oceans and atmosphere has contributed to declines in mist formation. This has, in turn, affected species native to the area

Leafing Dates of Oak (1746–present) - This graph shows how the leafing dates of oaks in southeastern England have changed over the past 256 years.

What climate information is available and what can be done?

• Climate science has grown using historical observed data and model output.

• Past temperature and rainfall at several places are available from number of sources.

• Climate models also give the future values into the next century.

• The above information can be utilized to know the future state of climate.

Challenging Future!Connecting climate change and societal parameters:• Extreme rainfall events to the area and number

of people to be affected by flood.• Change in land use pattern to increase in

temperature.• Increase in temperature to enhanced use of

power.• Extreme temperature and rainfall events and air

pollution to health issues such as heat stress, lungs, heart and water diseases.

For a management of future risks

…you need to understand mechanisms…you need to identify intervention points…you need to know where are the

hot spots located

Vulnerability assessments need to involve a cascade of analytical steps

Climate Impact Science cannotprovide planning tools. Climate Impact Science canoutline potential options and their potential effectiveness.

Impact chains are useful for the analysisof effects: starting points for action and transformation

Source: Reckien et al. 2009/PIK

Homogeneous rainfall zones of India. The numbers inside the zones indicate mean monsoon rainfall (mm), standard deviation (mm) and coefficient of variation (%) from top to bottom respectively

Dash et al., 2002, Mausam, 53(2), 133-144

Western Himalaya+ 0.9 0C+0.5 0C

Northwest+ 0.6 0C - 0.2 0C

North Central+ 0.8 0C + 0.2 0C

Interior Peninsula+ 0.5 0C+ 0.5 0C

West Coast+ 1.2 0C 0

+ 0.4 0C

East Coast+ 0.6 0C + 0.2 0C

Northeast+ 1.0 0C+0.2 0C

Changes in the maximum and minimum temperatures in different temperature zones during the last century. The upper numbers indicate maximum and lower ones represent minimum temperatures. Also + sign is for an increase and – is for decrease. The map of seven zones has been obtained from http://www.tropmet.res.in

Months Mean (0C) Maximum (0C)

Minimum (0C)

Jan & Feb(Winter)

+1.0 +1.0 – +1.2 +0.2 – +0.7

March-May(Pre-monsoon)

+0.3 +0.6 – +0.8 - 0.1 – +0.2

June-September(Monsoon)

+0.4 +0.4 – +0.6 -0.2 – +0.4

October-December

(Post-monsoon)

+1.1 +1.1 – +1.3 +0.6 – +0.8

Surface air temperature (0C) changes during different seasons averaged over the whole of India (+ sign indicates an increase and – represents decrease)

46.7 46.7 46.7

47.8

46.7

48

47.2

48 4848.2

47

49

45.5

46

46.5

47

47.5

48

48.5

49

49.5

HNK HNK HNK MPT ONG GNV

STATION

TEM

P(C

)

CLIMATE RECORDTEMP IN 2003

Highest maximum temperature recorded at some stations during heat wave of Andhra Pradesh in May & June 2003 and the earlier recorded highest maximum temperature.

Dash et al., 2007, Climatic Change, 85

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0

100

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20000

200

400

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

1000

1200

1400

1600

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20000

500

n

Years

Winter

n

Years

Pre-Monsoon

n

Years

Monsoonn

Years

Post-Monsoon

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

1500

2000

2500n

Years

Annual

Number of long spell rain events.Continuous rainfall for ≥4 days over all India

in different seasons. The red line is linear trend line.

The number of long spell rainfall events shows decreasing trend in monsoon season in last 54 years. This suggests that planetary scale motions, may be southwest monsoon over the country is weakening.

Dash et al. 2009 J. Geophys. Res. Vol. 114

Winter Pre-Monsoon Monsoon

Post-Monsoon Annual

Number of short spell rain events (Continuous rainfall for < 4 days) over all India in different seasons. The red line is linear trend line.

1 9 5 0 1 9 6 0 1 9 7 0 1 9 8 0 1 9 9 0 2 0 0 02 0 0

4 0 0

6 0 0

8 0 0

1 0 0 0

1 9 5 0 1 9 6 0 1 9 7 0 1 9 8 0 1 9 9 0 2 0 0 0

1 2 5 0

1 5 0 0

1 7 5 0

2 0 0 0

2 2 5 0

1 9 5 0 1 9 6 0 1 9 7 0 1 9 8 0 1 9 9 0 2 0 0 03 5 0 0

4 0 0 0

4 5 0 0

5 0 0 0

1 9 5 0 1 9 6 0 1 9 7 0 1 9 8 0 1 9 9 0 2 0 0 05 0 0

1 0 0 0

1 5 0 0

2 0 0 0

2 5 0 0

3 0 0 0

n

Y e a r s

W in te r

n

Y e a r s

P r e -M o n s o o nn

Y e a r s

M o n so o n

n

Y e a r s

P o s t M o n s o o n

1 9 5 0 1 9 6 0 1 9 7 0 1 9 8 0 1 9 9 0 2 0 0 0

7 0 0 0

8 0 0 0

9 0 0 0

1 0 0 0 0

n

Y e a r s

A n n u a l

Short spell rainfall events over India show increasing trend. This is an indication of increasing or intensifying of meso-scale conventions.

Dash et al. 2009 J. Geophys. Res. Vol. 114

Winter Pre-Monsoon

Monsoon Post-Monsoon

Annual

Summary of trends in heavy and moderate rain events in differentIndian regions for the summer monsoon season. Asterisks denote significant trend at 5% level. Dash et al. 2009 J. Geophys. Res. Vol.114

Summary of trends in long, short, dry and prolonged dry spells of rainfall in different Indian regions for the monsoon season. Asterisks denote significant trend at 5% level.

Dash et al. 2009 J. Geophys. Res. Vol.114

Temperature Indices

Names Definitions

TX90p, TX95p, TX99p

Warm days Count of days where maximum temperature TX > 90th, 95th and 99th percentile respectively

TN90p, TN95p, TN99p

Warm nights Count of days where minimum temperature TN > 90th, 95th and 99th percentile respectively

TX10p, TX05p, TX01p

Cold days Count of days where maximum temperature TX < 10th, 5th and 1th percentile respectively

TN10p, TN05p, TN01p

Cold nights Count of days where minimum temperature TN < 10th, 5th and 1th percentile respectively

WSDI Warm Spell Duration Index

Count of events where maximum temperature TX >90th percentile for at least six days continuously

CSDI Cold Spell Duration Index

Count of events where minimum temperature TN <10th percentile for at least six nights continuously

IETCCDI Klein Tank et al. (2009) http://www.clivar.org/organization/etccdi/etccdi.php

Dash et al., 2011, J Appl Met & ClimatDash et al., 2011, J Appl Met & Climat

Extreme temperature indices used


Summary of trends in annual and seasonal means of maximum and minimum temperatures with trends in different categories of warm days and nights in summer


Summary of trends in annual and seasonal mean of maximum and minimum temperatures with trends in different categories of cold days and nights in winter

Classification of Rain Events• HL: High intensity Long spell• ML: Moderate intensity Long spell• LL: Low intensity Long spell• HS: High intensity Short spell• MS: Moderate intensity Short spell• LS: Low intensity Short spell

Palampur

Coimbatore

Rajendranagar

Akola

Anand

Jodhpur

Bhubanswar

Jabalpur

Pantnagar

ERFS ProjectAgricultural Universities

Trends in the contributions of heavy, moderate, and low-intensity rainfall categories to total respective rainfall in All India, homogeneous zones, and agro-met divisions

Dash et al., 2011, Theor Appl Climato,Dash et al., 2011, Theor Appl Climato,

Contributions of different spells of rain to total summer monsoon rainfall


Percentage changes in various categories of long and short spells in the decade 1991–2000 compared with the 1951–1960 decade


Some rainfall facts for Agriculture• High intensity Short spells increase and

Moderate and Low intensity Long spells decrease.

• Contribution of Moderate Long spells to total rain decreases and Moderate Short spells increases.

• Contribution of Heavy categories to total rain increases and that of Moderate decreases.

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

16.00

18.00

1960-79 1980s 1990s 2000s

Decade

Series1

Series2

Fully workable days out of 30 by decade at Delhi in the month ofJune. (Series 1 is heavy labour; Series 2 is light factory work)

Number of workable days

Climate change in cities

• In India, the expected increase in extreme rainfall events and changes to seasonal monsoon patterns will increase the risk of major floods and the likelihood of drought, with severe consequences for the health and livelihoods of millions of people.

• Numerous cities in South and Southeast Asia are highly vulnerable to climate change.

objectives(1) to identify generic climate change parameters in four selected

cities in India and

(2) to scientifically contribute in the local climate adaptation plans.

Climate change in cities

The four selected cities in India are Howrah, Kochi, Madurai and Visakhapatnam.

For each of the above cities its local indicators for climate change adaptation are being developed.

VISHKHAPATNAMWT

2015‐2024

MADURAIWT T90p T95p

CT T10p T05p

KOCHIWTCT

HOWRAHWTCT

WARM TEMPERATURE (WT) & COLD TEMPERATURE (CT) EVENTS

Increasing (Decreasing) trends at 10%,5% and 1% significant levels are marked by the symbol , and ( , and ) respectively and represent no statistical

significance.

VISHKHAPATNAMWT T90p

2015‐2034

MADURAIWT T90p T95p

CT T10p T05p

KOCHIWTCT

HOWRAHWTCT


significance.


VISHKHAPATNAMWT T90p T95pCT T10p

2015‐2044

MADURAIWT T90p T95p T99p

CT T10p T05p T01p

KOCHIWT T90p T95pCT T10p T05p

HOWRAHWTCT


significance.


VISHKHAPATNAMWT

2071‐2099

MADURAI

WT T90p T95p

KOCHIWTCT

HOWRAHWTCT


significance.


Hot and Cool days are the quantitative indices calculated from daily mean air temperature.

These indices are widely used to describe the energy consumption of heating (cooling) so as to defend against temperature changing.

Hot Day (in degree) is defined as the accumulated Celsius degrees difference between the threshold temperature and daily mean temperature when the daily mean temperature is higher than the threshold value.

Cool Day (in degree) is defined as the accumulated Celsius degrees difference between the daily mean temperature and the threshold temperature when the daily mean temperature is lower than the threshold value.

The threshold value taken at Howrah is 26.71°C.

Hot

Day

s in

deg

ree

City: VISAKHAPATNAM

Data: IMD Gridded Mean Temperature 0.5x0.5 resolution

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Months

(1969-2000)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecMonths

Hot

Day

s in

deg

ree

(2001-2005)

Coo

l Day

s in

deg

ree

Coo

l Day

s in

deg

ree

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180


Months

(1969-2000)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180


Months

(2001-2005)

Hot

Day

s in

deg

ree

y = 0.2447x + 247.05R2 = 0.0026

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

Years

Coo

l D

ays

in d

egre

e

y = -1.0918x + 551.39R2 = 0.0579

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

Years

Ener

gy (M

illio

n K

Wh)

Years

Hot

Day

s in

Deg

ree

0

100

200

300

400

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600

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800

900

2004-05 2005-060

50

100

150

200

250

300

350ResidentialIndustrialCommercialHot Days

0

100

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400

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600

700

800

900

2004-05 2005-06460

480

500

520

540

560

580

600ResidencialIndustrialCommercialCool Days

Years

Ener

gy (M

illio

n K

Wh)

Coo

l D

ays

in D

egre

e

Immediate Goals

• Validating Regional Climate Models at all the homogeneous regions in India, especially over the Himalayas.

• Downscaling surface temperature and rainfall to the resolutions of impact assessments.

• Determining the climate uncertainties in temperature and rainfall for applications in Agriculture, Health and City Amenities.

Documents

Study of Changes in Climate Parameters at Regional Level ... · Homogeneous rainfall zones of India. The numbers inside the zones indicate mean monsoon rainfall (mm), standard deviation