Study of 11th 5 Year Plan (2007-12)

8/14/2019 Study of 11th 5 Year Plan (2007-12)

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Study of 5 Year Plans

ByManoj Bharadwaj

Fortress Financial Services ltd.Mumbai


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Railways 10 th 5YP:Financial Review of Tenth Plan

38,163

46,545

60,600

27,600

33,000

Total

Gross Budgetary Support

Internal and Extra BudgetaryResources

Freight Traffic

Estimation of the freight traffic during 10 th five year plan was624 Million Tonnes of originating traffic and 396 Billion TonneKm of transportation output .

84,708

0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000

Original Outlay (in Rs. Crore) Outlay achieved (in Rs. Crore)


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Freight Performance during Tenth Plan

Year Originatingloading

(Million Ton)

Annual GrowthRate

Freight Output(Billion

NTKM)

Annual GrowthRate

2001-02 492.5 - 333.23

2002-03 518.7 5.32% 353.19 5.60%

2003-04 557.4 7.36% 381.24 7.94%

2004-05 602.1 8.02% 411.28 7.88%

2005-06 666.5 10.70% 441.76 7.41%

2006-07 726.0 8.93% 476.77 7.92%

verage growrate

. .

0

100

200

300

400

500

600700

800

2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07

OL (Million Ton)

0

100

200

300

400

500600

2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07

FO (Billion NTKM)


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0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2001-02

2006-07

Traffic Growth of Different Commodities

2001-02 492.5

2006-07 726

Incrementalloading

233.5

CAGR 8.07%

Cargo Handled (in milliontonnes)

Coal , 229.69

Ore to SteelPlants , 39.35

Ore - Export, 15.72

Cement , 44.04

POL , 35.62

Foodgrains ,32.82

Fertilizers , 27.2

Iron & Steel ,14.5 Others ,

53.56

Coal , 310

Ore to SteelPlants , 62

Ore - Export ,52

Cement ,65

POL , 33

Foodgrains , 46

Fertilizers , 36

Iron & Steel , 19 Others , 103

2001-02 2006-07


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Targets and achievements

Tenth Plan target At the end of Tenth

plan

Percentage of

completionNew Lines (kms) 1310 945 72.13%

Gauge Conversion(kms)*

4000 4432 110.8%

Doubling (kms) 1575 1363 86.53%

Track Renewals (kms) 23000 24053 104.57%

Railway Electrification 1800 1809 100.5%(kms)Wagons 65000 86619 133.26%

Coaches 9160 10722 117.05%

EMUs (no.s) 1965 869 44.22%

MEMU / DEMU (no.s) 750 610 81.33%

Diesel Locomotives(no.s)

444 607 136.71%

Electric Locomotives(no.s)

343 524 152.76%


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Reason for achievement

Improved asset utilization has played a major role in theperformance

Decision to use the carrying capacity of the wagonsoptimally by increasing the loadability of the wagons onselected routes up to 15 per cent

The realignment of tariff to the competitive conditions inthe market and incentives for loading in the lean seasonand the empty flow direction.

Improvements in commodities:

Major increases were seen in coal, iron ore for export andsteel plants, cement and other commodities (which includecontainers).


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Outlook for the Eleventh planPlan Outlay

The total outlay for the 11 th five year plan works out to Rs. 251000 crore. Nearly 3 times jump in allocation from the previous plan

Financing for the 11 th Five Year Plan Split Up (Rs. Crore)

(Rs. Crore)(a)Capitalfrom GeneralExchequer ,

80,300

(a)Contribution for SRSF ,

1,200(a)DieselCess for

Safety Fund ,4,500

(b)InternalResources ,

90,000

(c)ExtraBudgetary

Resources ,75,000

(a) BudgetarySupport

86000

(b) InternalResources 90,000

(c) Extra BudgetaryResources

75,000


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Forecasts of TrafficYear Originating

loading(million tonnes)

Freight Output(BTMKs)

2006-07 748 497

2007-08 801 532

2008-09 858 570

2009-10 918 610

2010-11 984 653

Assumes Annual Growthrate of for Originating

loading 7.11% and 7.12%for Freight Output

*

Assumes GDP growth of 8%, Rail TransportElasticity of 0.87

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

Traffic Forecast

Mtonnes

BTMKs

2011-12 1055 701


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Commodity-wise Projection for the Terminal Year

Originating Loading (in million tonnes)

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2006-07

2011-12

1 Coal-Total

2 Iron Ore- Steel Plants

3 Iron Ore - Exports

4 POL

5 Fertilizer

6 Cement

7 Finished steel

8 Food grains

9 Others including containers

10 Grand Total

Revenue NTKMs (in Rupee billion)

0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

0

100

200

300

400

500600

700

800

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

2006-07

2011-12

Yield per million ton (YPMT) will beat an average of Rs. 62.67 crore

from the present level of Rs. 59.8crore. It is assumed that YPMT willincrease gradually in the range of

2.2% to 3.8% every year.


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New Line Projects12%

Freight Terminals2%

OtherTrafficFacilityworks

3%Logistic Park

1%

Railway Electrification4%

Metropolitan Projects6%

Other Measures forEnhancing Capacity

3%

Running Of 25 Tones AxleLoad On Iron Ore Routes

3%

Running Of 23/24 CoachLength Trains

1%

Capacity Enhancement Spread of Funds

Gauge Conversion24%

Doubling25%

Traffic Facility Works

11%Mega Terminals atMetropolitan cities

2%

Terminals at State Capitalsand important tourists

places1%

Separators/Flyovers/Bye-

pass lines2%

Total Funds allocated:Rs. 77,050 crore


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New Policy Initiatives

Work on Dedicated Freight Corridors on the Eastern and Western routes havebeen initiated.

Container Policy Liberalization

Wagon Investment Scheme

Rail-side Warehousing Scheme

Rail Vikas Nigam Limited (RVNL )

It was set up as a special purpose vehicle to execute the bankable projects forstrengthening of Golden Quadrilateral and Port / Hinterland Connectivity under theNational Rail Vikas Yojana (NRVY) .

Liberalisation of Siding Rules

Terminal Incentive Scheme and Freight Incentive Schemes


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Roadways Review of 10th Plan

41232.94

20892

32278.67

9092.9

Gross Budgetary Support

Internal and Extra Budgetary Resource

Financial Review of Tenth Plan

Physical Achievement:The Tenth Plan envisaged the top priority in completion of:

GQ Phase I of NS- EW Corridor

62124.94

.

0 20000 40000 60000

Total

Outlay Achieved (Rs. Crore) Initial Outlay (Rs. Crore)


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Progress of the National Highways Development ProjectThe overall progress of NHDP as on February, 2007 is as under:

NHDPComponent

TotalLength

CompletedFour Lane

Under Implementation Balance foraward of civilworksLength

(km)No. of contracts

GQ 5846 5540 306 35 -

NS-EW 7300 1080 5150 146 908

Portconnectivity

380 145 214 7 21

Other NHs 945 287 638 16 20

NHDP IIIA 4035 30 1404 22 2566

NHDP-V 6500 148 2 6352

Total 25006 7082 7860 228 9867


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Historical Growth of National Highways

01000020000300004000050000600007000080000

Total length in Kms

Pre-LiberalizationAverage Growth of

NH during each 5 YPis 4.34%

Number of

kilometers added12 249 km.

0250050007500

10000125001500017500200002250025000

Length added in KmsPost-LiberalizationAverage Growth of

NH during each 5 YPis 24.08%

Number of kilometers added

39,901 km.


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Outlook for 11 th Five Year PlanAvailability of Funds for 11 th Five Year Plan: (Rs. Crore)

Cess 36,589

ExternalAssistance

4,454

Borrowingsby NHAI

Share of privatesector87,735

Total : Rs. 1,73,501crore

About 4 times jump in fundallocation from the

The target for new addition of length in NH network in 11th Five Year Plan wouldbe about 7000km .

A road vision 2021 was prepared in the Ministry, which proposes a total NationalHighway network of about 80,000 km by the end of the year 2021.

41,615

Surplus fromthe user fee

3,108

previous plan


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S. No. Name of Project Likely Cost (in Rs.Crore)

1. Completion of GQ and EW-NScorridors

52,434

2. 4 -laning of 11,113 km under NHDPPhase-III

72,454

3. 2-laning with paved shoulders of 20,000 km of National

27,800

Projects undertaken by NHAI:

Highways under NHDP Phase-IV4. 6-laning of selected stretches of

National Highways underNHDP Phase-V

41,210

5. Development of 1000 km of expressways under NHDPPhase-VI

16,680

6. Construction of ring roads, flyoversand bypasses on selected stretchesunder NHDP Phase-VII.

16,680

Total 2,27,258


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Targets:

NHDP Component Target for CompletionCompletion of GQ March, 2007 *

Completion of NS-EW Corridors,Port Connectivity & otherprojects under NHDP-Phase-I&II

December, 2009

Completion of NHDP-Phase-III December, 2013

Completion of NHDP-Phase-V December, 2012

Completion of NHDP-Phase-VI December, 2015

Completion of NHDP-Phase-VII December, 2015


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Current Status of the projects:Corridors Total Length

(in km)LengthCompleted(in km)

Length Underimplementation(in km)

Balance foraward(in km)

GoldenQuadrilateral

5846 5713 133 ----

North-South &

East-West

7142 3291 3030 821

Out of a total length of 6283 kms under implementation, 4/6 laning has been completed for apartial length of 2130 kms.

PortConnectivity

380 206 168 06

NHDP Phase-III 12,109 659 1816 9624

NHDP Phase-V 6500 77 953 5470

Total 32939 10705 6283 15951


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Agencies taking up development work:The development and maintenance of National Highways are implemented

on agency basis.

1. The Government of States / Union Territories (PWDs of State / UTs)2. The National Highways Authority of India (NHAI)3. Border Roads Organisation (BRO)

Agency Length of National Highwaysunder the respective agencies

*As on Feb 2007

The Government of States /Union Territories (PWDs of State / UTs)

43,705 km

The National Highways

Authority of India (NHAI)

16,117 km

Border Roads Organisation(BRO)

5,512 km

Total 65334 km


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State Roads and Major District Roads

State Highways (SHs) and Major District Roads (MDRs) constitute the secondarysystem of road transportation in the country.

State Highways (SHs) Major District Roads (MDRs)

Provide linkages with theNational Highways, districtheadquarters of the state andimportant towns, tourist

centres and minor ports.

Runs within the districtconnecting areas of production with markets,connecting the rural areas to

the district headquarters andto State Highways and

These roads also carry medium to heavy traffic. It is assessed that the secondarysystem carries about 40 % of the total road traffic, although they constitute onlyabout 13 % of the total road length.

National Highways.

Their total length stands atabout 131,699 km.

Their length is estimated ataround 467,763 km.


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Deficiencies in the Present SystemA total amount of Rs. 8,000 to 10,000 crore per annum is being made availableagainst the requirement of at least Rs.16,000 crore per annum.

The result is, there are several deficiencies in the existing SHs and MDRs as:

Inadequate width of carriageway in relation to traffic demand

Weak pavement and bridges

Congested stretches of SHs and MDRs passing through cities/towns

and mountainous regionMissing links and bridges

Several railway level crossings crying for replacement with ROB/RUB.

A broad assessment shows that over 50 % of SHs and MDRs network has poorriding quality.Losses due to poor condition of these roads would be around Rs. 6000 croreper annum besides their premature failure resulting in huge rehabilitation andreconstruction costs implying infusion of avoidable plan funds at acceleratedintervals.


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The total replacement cost of the existing SH and MDR network is broadlyassessed to be as under: (in Rs. Crore)

Source: Road Development Plan Vision: 2021, of the Ministry of Shipping, Road Transport & Highways, published by the IRC. Cost based on 2000-01 Prices)

Constraints Faced:

State Highways 1,50,000

Major District Roads 1,00,000

Total 2,50,000

Lack of financesSpreading resources thinlyControl on pre-construction activitiesWeak management by contractors


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Formation of Core Network It identifies major arterial routes covering national highways and those state

highways/major district roads which are either already experiencing high volumes

of traffic or have such potential in the light of industrial and other growthstrategies by both the public and the private sector.

The Core network should have a corridor concept and it should be possible toreach from one end of the State to the other at an average speed of 70-80 km perhour.

The objective should be that a commercial vehicle can cover 500 to 600 km on

such a network in one day., - ,

pavements and pavements with good riding quality, bypasses and bridges

Core network length for all

states

71500 km

Financial Outlay covering allstates

Rs. 80,000 crore


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Highway Maintenance:The requirement of funds as per the norms and fund provided during the last fiveyears are indicated below: -

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Requirement as per norms (in Rs.Crore)

Amount Provided (in Rs. Crore)

Fund Requirement for maintenanceIt is estimated that the fund requirement for maintenance of National Highwaysduring the 11th Plan period would be Rs. 11,400 crore.

Finance Commissions RecommendationsThe Finance Commission decided to provide an annual central grant of Rs.3,750crore over the period 2006-10 for the country as a whole.This amount is in addition to the normal expenditure, which the states areexpected to incur on maintenance of roads and bridges.

2002-2003 2003-2004 2004-2005 2005-2006 2006-2007


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DEVELOPMENT OF ROADS IN THE NORTH-EASTERN REGION The share of road transport would be well over 90% in the total movement by

surface transport in the Region.

The total road network now stands at 102,000 km out of which 7% are NationalHighways comprising the Primary road system, 20% are State Highways and MajorDistrict Roads comprising the Secondary road system and rest are Rural Roadsproviding links to villages.

Road Network in NORTH-EASTERN RegionState National

HighwaysStateHighways

MajorDistrictRoads

Good Fair Poor

Arunachal Pradesh 392 119 4045 - 4.5 95.5

Assam 2836 1474 6280 12.8 57.3 29.9Manipur 959 675 964 4.7 35.2 60.1Meghalaya 810 653 2712 27.0 42.3 30.7

Mizoram 927 181 1176 - 29.5 70.5Nagaland 494 637 669 12.4 45.3 42.3

Sikkim 62 186 464 NA NA NATripura 400 - 454 - 64.4 35.6Total for NE states 6,880 3925 16,764 10.7 40.9 48.4


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Special Accelerated Road Development Programme in the North-EasternRegion (SARDP-NE)

Objective: To provide connectivity to all the 85 District Headquarters of the NE Region. Covers 7616 kms of National Highways, State Highways and GS (General Staff)

roads

To connect all State capital with improved/upgraded National Highways. To improve connectivity to the neighbouring countries.

The programme is to be implemented in two phases:

Phase A Phase B

It covers 17 roads with an aggregatelength of 1310 km .

Estimated cost is Rs. 4618 crore

The target for completion of roads underthis Phase is year 2008-09

It comprises 83 roads with an aggregatelength of 6306 km .

Time-frame, cost estimates, sources of funds and the implementation agenciesare, yet to be decided.


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National Expressways

Target: 15,766 km.Phasing of expressway: 2012, 2017, 2022Project Cost estimation: >> Rs.2, 50,000 crore.Plan for Phase I: 3,530 km (Report from Yahoo News 9 th Dec 09)Estimated Cost for Phase I: Rs. 20,000 crore.The Ministry of Road Transport and Highways has identified 11 stretches in 12 states in thecountry for setting up high-speed six- to eight-lane expressways in the country in the first

phase of its plan.

HimachalPradesh

MadhyaPradesh

Uttar Pradesh Karnataka

Rajasthan Tamil Nadu AndhraPradesh

Maharashtra

Gujarat Karnataka Kerala Goa


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Ports - Review of 10 th Five Year Plan

Target:

Aggregate capacity of 12 major airports to hit 508.6 MTPA byend of 10 th 5 YP as against 343.95 MTPA by the end of 9 th 5 YP

Finance Outlay: Total plan outlay: Rs. 5418.29 crore Gross budgetary support: Rs. 972 crore Internal and external resource generation: Rs. 4446.29


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050

100150200250300350

400450500

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

Major Ports (in million tonnes)

Year

CargoHandled

(in milliontonnes) Growth

2002-03 313.55

2003-04 344.8 9.97%

2004-05 383.75 11.30%

2005-06 423.57 10.38%

2006-07 465.7 9.95%

020406080

100

120140160180

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

Minor Ports (in million tonnes)

Year

CargoHandled

(in milliontonnes) Growth

2002-03 108.3

2003-04 120.84 11.58%

2004-05 137.87 14.09%

2005-06 151.14 9.63%

2006-07 170 12.48%


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0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Traffic Handled (in milliontonnes)

Capacity (in million tonnes)

Capacity Creation and Utilization at Major Ports

Average CapacityUtilization is about

91.65%

Average Growth intraffic is 9.33%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06

Major Ports

Minor Ports

Year Overall Traffic

2000-01 367.83

2001-02 383.97

2002-03 421.87

2003-04 465.64

2004-05 521.62

2005-06 574.71

Comparison of Traffic at Major and Minor Ports


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Private Sector Participation in Major Ports:Schemes estimated to be about Rs. 11,257 crore were identified

No. of Schemes Cost (Rs.Crore) Capacity Addition (milliontonnes)

8 SchemesCompleted

1775 44.4

6 Schemesawarded

3818 45.5

er a or n a ves:

Maritime Policy:Seeks to combine vision and strategy for the sector through harmonious and coordinateddevelopment of maritime assets like:

a. Portsb. Shippingc. Inland water transport system

d. Ship buildinge. Ship repair industries

After firming up the revised draft and its clearance by COS, it has been placed before the

cabinet for approval


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Outlook 11 th Five Year Plan

InternalResources ,14502.08

GrossBudgetarysupport ,

5547.76

PrivateSector ,

36868.24

Availability of funds Split Up (Rs. Crore)

Total : Rs. 68,972.16crore

Drafted with the expectation that GDP growth rate will be in the range to 8%-9%during the 11 th five year plan.

Projections for 2012:

ExtraBudgetaryResource ,12054.08

Major ports 800 MT 1001.8 MT

Minor ports 300 MT 345.19 MT

Projected Traffic Projected Capacity

Documents

Study of 11th 5 Year Plan (2007-12)