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Study Material on Project Management Prof : M N Zamir Department of Commerce Aligarh Muslim University

Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

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Page 1: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

Study Material on Project Management

Prof : M N Zamir

Department of Commerce

Aligarh Muslim University

Page 2: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

Investment Opportunities and Demand Analysis

Page 3: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

Lecture 1.

1. Concept of project Ideas

Page 4: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

What is a Project?

• "..... an endeavour in which human, (or

machine), material and financial resources are

organised in a novel Way, to undertake a

unique . scope of work, of given specification,

within constraints of cost and time, so as to

deliver beneficial change defined by

quantitative and qualitative objectives. "

Page 5: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

distinctive features of a project

• A start and finish (although they may be difficult to define - the start may have crystallised over a period of time and the end may be a slow phase out).

• A life-cycle (a beginning and an end, with a number of distinct phases in between). A budget with an associated cash-flow.

• Activities that are essentially unique and non-repetitive.

• Use of resources, which may be from different departments and need coordinating.

Page 6: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

• A single point of responsibility (i.e. the project manager). •

• Fast tracking - getting your product to market before your competitors. •

• Team roles and relationships that are subject to change and need to be developed, defined and established (team building).

Page 7: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

PROJECT SELECTION PROCESS

• Idea generation

• Environment appraisal.

• Corporate appraisal

• Scouting for project ideas.

• Preliminary screening.

• Project rating index

• Sources of positive Net Present Value.

• Entrepreneur qualities.

Page 8: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

The discipline of project include nine knowledge areas

• Integration • Scope·• Communication• Time • Cost • Procurement• Quality • HRM • Risk

Page 9: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

Sources of Project Idea

• Knowledge of market, products, and services.

• Knowledge of potential customer choice.

• Emerging trends in demand for particular product.

• Scope for producing substitute product.

• Market survey & research.

• Going through Professional magazines.

• Making visits to trade and exhibitions.

• Government guidelines & policy.

• Ideas given by the experienced person.

• Ideas by own experience.

• SWOT analysis

Page 10: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

Types of projects

• Short Term vs. Long Term Projects

• Large, Medium and Small Projects

• Classification of projects by type and area

• Sequential vs. Parallel Projects

• External vs. Internal Projects

Page 11: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

Lecture 2

Screening of project Ideas

Page 12: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

What is a project idea screening?• The aim in idea screening is to retain the

successful ideas and eliminate the ideas which could be failures

• much easier to write than to carry out in practice!

• Idea screening can be based on tacit knowledge of the individual and of the company, with little new explicit information sought in or outside the company.

• “ screening of an idea means evaluation based certain pre determined factors”

Page 13: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

Prerequisites of Project Screening Following must be clear and concise before

screening project

• a clear description of the project;

• the usage of the project;

• the target market segment;

• the relationship to the company's present policies;

• the relationship to competing project/ product .

Page 14: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

Screening factors 1. Marketing factors

Potential market size Compatibility of market image with company's product

lines Relationship to competing products Compatibility with existing or specified market

channels Access to suitable physical distribution systems Fits into an acceptable pricing structure Relationship to promotional methods and resources Marketing resources needed to produce success

Page 15: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

2. Production factors:

Compatibility with existing product lines

Availability of processing equipment

Availability of raw materials and ingredients

Availability of technical skills to produce the product

Availability of production time

Agreement with any legal requirements

Cost and availability of new resources required

Page 16: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

3. Development factors:

Knowledge needed for development

Available knowledge and skills

Available time and human resources

Development funds needed and available

Compatibility with existing strengths

Development difficulties and risks of failure

Page 17: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

5. Financial factors:

Compatibility of development costs with financial resources

Capital investment resources needed and available

Finance needed and available for market launch and ongoing product support

Profits or returns on investment required

Page 18: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

Product ideas screening procedures(Example)

(25 ideas)

Pass/fail screening using aim and constraints

(10 ideas)

Checklist screening using market suitability and technical possibility

(2 ideas)

Economic evaluation using predicted market size, prices and production costs

(1 idea)

Page 19: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

Lecture 3

Environmental scanning

Page 20: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

What is Environmental Scanning

• Environmental scanning is a strategic tool. It is a process to identify all the external and internal elements, which can affect the project performance.

• The analysis entails assessing the level of threat or opportunity the factors might present.

• These evaluations are later translated into the decision-making process.

• The analysis helps align strategies with the firm’s environment.

Page 21: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

Elements of environmental scanning

• An entrepreneur or a firm systematically appraise the environment and assess its competitive abilities.

• For the purposes of monitoring, the business environment may be divided into six broad sectors

Page 22: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

1. Economic Sector

• State of the economy

• Overall rate of growth

• Cyclical fluctuations

• Inflation rate

• Growth rate of primary, secondary and territory sector

• Growth rate of world economy

• Trade surplus and deficits

• Balance of Payment

Page 23: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

2. Government Sector

• Industrial policy

• Government programmes and projects

• Tax structure

• EXIM policy

• Financing norms

• Subsidies incentives and concessions

• Monetary policy

Page 24: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

3. Technological Sector

• Emergence of new technologies

• Access to technical know-how, foreign as well as indigenous

• Accessibility of technology

• Level technology adoption by society

Page 25: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

4. Socio-demographic Sector

• Population trends

• Age shifts in population

• Income distribution

• Educational profile

• Employment of women

• Attitudes toward consumption and investment

Page 26: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

5. Competition Sector

• Number of firms in the industry and the market share of the top few

• Degree of homogeneity and differentiation among the products

• Entry barrier

• Comparison with substitutes in term of quality and price

• Marketing polices and practices

Page 27: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

6.Supplier Sector

• Availability and cost of raw material

• Availability and cost of energy

• Availability and cost of capital

Page 28: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

need and importance of environmental scanning

• Identification of strength

• Identification of weakness

• Identification of opportunities

• Identification of threat

• Optimum use of resources

• Survival and growth

• To plan long-term business strategy

• Environmental scanning aids decision-making

Page 29: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

Lecture 4

Opportunity Analysis

Page 30: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

Why opportunity analysis?

• Once you have drawn out the business process, look at each step and ask, “Why do we do this?”

• If there isn’t a good reason to take the step, remove it!

• If the step is necessary but could be done more intelligently, ask how.

• If the question of what needs to change isn’t answered easily, a project to fully investigate the options and create a solution could spring from your analysis.

Page 31: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

Meaning of opportunity • An opportunity is a favourable juncture of circumstances with

a good chance for success or progress.

• It is the job of the entrepreneur to locate new ideas and to putthem into action.

• Market opportunity analysis is a kind of business planning thatemphasizes on discovering the future opportunities andevaluating the company’s technological, financial andcompetitive willingness to make use of them.

• It also includes the identification of the unmet needs of thecustomers, identification of target markets, and assessingthe competitive advantages as well as resource capacity of thecompany in order to meet the market’s needs.

Page 32: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

Elements of Opportunity Analysis

• Opportunity Recognition

• Opportunity Assessment

• Opportunity Realization

Page 33: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

Process of Analyzing an Opportunity

• Identify potential opportunities

• Define your purpose and objectives

• Gather data from primary sources

• Gather data from secondary sources

• Analyze and interpret the results

• Match with objectives

• Final decision

Page 34: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

Technical Analysis

Prof: M N Zamir

Department of Commerce

AMU

Page 35: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

Technical Analysis- Conceptual aspects

• Technical analysis is related to analysis the production and project output procedures. It involves study of the project, to evaluate technical and engineering aspects when a project is being examined and formulated.

• It is a continues process to execute the project idea.

Page 36: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

Elements of Technical Analysis

• Material inputs and utilities

• Manufacturing process/ technology

• Product mix

• Plant capacity, location and site

• Machinery and equipments

• project implement procedures

Page 37: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

Plant Layout ?“ a technique of locating machines, processes

and plant services within the factory in order to secure the greatest possible output of high quality at the lowest possible total cost of production”

Proper plant layout can reduce manufacturing cost by saving money and time.

Plant layout refers to the arrangement of the machines, equipments and other physical facilities within the factory premises.

Page 38: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

“ A good layout results in comforts,

convenience, appearance, safety,

efficiency, and profits; A poor

layout results in congestions,

wastes, frustration and

inefficiency”

Page 39: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

Objectives of Plant Layout• Smooth operation of the factory works

• Time saving in manufacturing processes

• Reduction in the cost of the material handling

• Economic use of area and floor space available

• Placing materials according to workers’ and workrequirements

• Continuous movement of martial from store tomanufacturing process

• Maximum convenience, safety and health of workers

• No production delay

• Better supervision and control

Page 40: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

Types of Plant Layout 1. Product Layout: machines and equipments

are arranged in the sequence or order in which they are used in the manufacture of a given product

This type of layout best suited for mass production

The main idea behind the product layout is a continuous flow of material in process towards the finished product stage

it is also called line layout

Page 41: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

2. Process Layout: similar machines are placed in one place (work area)according to the operations or functions they perform.

• Eg: all drilling machines are arranged in drilling department, grinding machines are placed in grinding department.

• It also called functional lay out

Page 42: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

3. Combined layout: the combined or mixed layout combines the advantages of both product and process layout.

A combined layout is possible where an items is made in different type and size

It is suitable for job shops and semi mass production

Page 43: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

4. Stationary Layout; under this type layout, the men and equipments are moved to the material which remain in one place.

The product is completed at the place where material lies.

It is also called fixed position layout

This type of layout necessary in ship building, aircraft manufacturing

Page 44: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

5. Cellular Layout:

This is an innovative layout, machines dedicated to sequences of production are grouped into cells

This is based on group technology principal

Page 45: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

Merits of a good plant layout• Increase productivity

• Economic utilization of space

• Effective supervision and control

• Economy in material handling

• Improved safety

• Improved working environment

• High morale

• Better quality control

Page 46: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

Factors influencing plant layout• Nature of Industry

• Volume of production

• Type of product

• Location

• Material handling

• Type of equipment

• Factory building

• Service facilities

• Lighting and ventilation

Page 47: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

Factory DesignFactory design refers to the plan for a particular

type of building, arrangement of machinery and equipment, provision of service facilities, lighting, heating, ventilation.. Etc in the building

Factory design comprises layout of building (building design) and layout of factory.

Page 48: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

Importance of factory design • Storage and movement of materials

• Service facilities

• Supervision

• Employee morale

• Productivity

Page 49: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

Factors affecting factory design

• Location• Nature of the manufacturing process• Plant layout• Smoothness in operation• Service facilities• Material handling• Cost of construction of building• Future expansion• Nature of the product

Page 50: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

Project Financing and Sources of Finance

Prof: M N Zamir

Department of Commerce

AMU

Page 51: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

Project Financing• Project financing is a starting point of project

operation

• A financial plan should be formulated in the light of present as well as future development

• Project financing is the process of estimating the need of finance, identifying the sources. Procuring required quantity and managing through out the life of project

Page 52: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

Project financing include• Determine the financial resources required to the

company’s operating programme• Forecast the extend to which these requirement

will be met by internal generation of funds and the extend of external sources

• Develop the best plans to obtain the required external funds

• Establish and maintain a system of financial control governing the allocation and use of funds

• Analyze most effective profit – volume- cost relationship

• Analyze the financial reports

Page 53: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

Estimation of long term and short tem financial needs

• The finance required for a business can be broadly classified into two main categories:

• Fixed capital requirements

• Working capital requirements

Page 54: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

Fixed capital

Fixed or block capital generally refers to the amount required for acquiring Fixed assets like land, building, machinery, computer, equipments furniture etc.

These assets are inteded for permanent use in the business ( and not for resale), that is for long period of time

Page 55: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

Factors affecting the estimation of fixed capital

• Internal factors : factors related to business/ project

• External factors: factors related general economy as whole

Page 56: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

Internal factors

• Nature or character of business

• Size of business

• Activities undertaken by the enterprises or scope of business

• Production technique

• Mode of acquisition of fixed assets

• Decision regarding ancillary units

Page 57: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

External factors

• International conditions and economic outlook

• Population trends and its compositions

• Shift in consumer preference

• Competitive factors

• Shift in technology

• Government regulations

Page 58: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

Short term capital • Working capital or short term capital refers to

the capital required for the day to day working or operation of a project.

• It consist fund invested in current asset

• There are two concept about working capital

A. Gross working capital: total current asset

B. Net working Capital :

Current Asset – Current Liability

Page 59: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

Types of working capital• Permanent working capital: there is always a minimum

amount of working capital which is continuously required by the enterprises to carry out its normal business operations.

• Initial working capital : the working capital which is needed in the initial stage of the project.

• Regular working capital: the amount maintained for regular works

• Seasonal working capital: the working capital which is needed during the particular season

• Special working capital: extra working capital to be maintained to meet for unforeseen contingencies or to finance special operation

Page 60: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

Factors determining WC • Nature or character of business• Size of business/ seal of operation• Length of production cycle• Seasonal variation• Working capital cycle• Rate of stock turnover • Credit policy• Business cycle• Rate of growth of business• Price level changes

Page 61: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

Sources of finance

• Long-term source of finance : generally more the 5 year

• Medium term sources: not more than 3 years

• Short term sources of finance:less than one year

Page 62: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

Short term finance:

• Bank credit

• Customer advance

• Trade credit

• Factoring

• Accrtuals

• Differed income

• Commercial paper

• Installment credit

Page 63: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

Medium term finance

• Issue of debentures

• Issue of preference shares

• Bank loans

• Public deposits/ fixed deposits

• Loans from financial institutions

Page 64: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

Long-term sources

• Issue of shares

• Issue of debentures

• Ploughing back of profits

• Loans from specialized financial institutions

Page 65: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

Equity shares• Equity shares also known as ordinary shares or

common shares, represent the owners’ capital in a company

• They have a control over the working of the company

• The rate of the dividend depends upon profits of the company

• Equity shares capital cannot be redeemed during the life time of the company

Page 66: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

Preference share capital

• These shares have preferential rights as compared to other shares:

1 . There is a preferential right for payment of dividend

2. Repayment of capital at the time of liquidation of company

This type of shares also called hybrid form of securities

Page 67: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

Debentures

• A company may raise long term finance through public borrowing

• A debeture is an acknowledgement of debt

• A fixed rate of interest is paid on debentures

• A debenture generally given a floating charge over the assets of the company

Page 68: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

• Venture capital : it is the capital investment in new and high risky ventures

• It is the investment where the venture capitalist earn his return from capital gain through the sale of equity shares

Page 69: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

Lease financing

• It is the right to use an asset

the contact between lessor and lessee explain the condition for using assets

The periodic payment has to be paid lessee for the use of asset

Page 70: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

Institutional finance • There are several financial institutions for giving

financial assistances to entrepreneurs some of them are:

• Industrial finance corporation of India – 1948

• Industrial Development Bank of India – 1964

• Small Industrial Development Bank of India- 1993

• National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development 1982

• State Finance Corporation 1951 onwards

• MUDRA bank 2014

Page 71: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

Demand Forecasting

Prof: M N Zamir

Department of Commerce

AMU

Page 72: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

Demand Forecasting According to Henry Fayol, “the act of

forecasting is of great benefit to all who takepart in the process and is the best means ofensuring adaptability to changingcircumstances. The collaboration of allconcerned lead to a unified front, anunderstanding of the reasons for decisionsand a broadened outlook”.

Demand forecasting is the entire activity ofvisualizing future trend of markets

Page 73: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

Why demand forecasting

• When a product is produced for a market, the

demand occurs in the future.

• The production planning cannot be accomplished

unless the volume of the demand known.

• The success of the business in supplying the

demand in the most efficient & profitable way

will then depend on the accuracy of the

forecasting process in predicting the future

demand.

Page 74: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

Accurate demand forecasting is essential for a firm to enable it to produce the required quantities at the right time and arrange well in advance for the various factors of production.

Page 75: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

Importance of Demand Forecasting:DEMAND FORCASTING IS LONGTERM MARKET

STRATEGY

1. Helpful in deciding the number of salesmen required to achieve the sales objective.

2. Determination of sales territories./ Segment

3. To determine how much production capacity to be built up.

4. Determining the pricing strategy.

5. Helpful in deciding the channels of distribution and physical distribution decision.

6. To decide to enter a new market or not.

7. To prepare standard against which to measure performance.

8. To assess the effect of a proposed marketing programme.

Page 76: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

Demand (Sales) Forecasting Periods:

• Short run demand forecast.• Long run demand forecast.

Demand estimation and forecasting

that estimation attempts to quantify the links between the level of demand and the variables which determine it. Forecasting, on the other hand, attempts to predict the overall level of future demand rather than looking at specific linkages.

Page 77: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

Factors Affecting Demand (Sales) Forecasting:

1. Purchasing power of customers/ disposable income

2. Demography

3. Price

4. Replacement demand

5. Credit conditions

6. Conditions within the industry

7. Socio economic conditions.

Page 78: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

Methods of Estimating Future Demand:

1. survey of buyer’s intentions/opinion survey method.

Identify buyers preferences through extensive survey

2. Sales force composite method/collective opinion method.

Analysis of different sales determination variables i.e.

competition, price, fashion

3. Executive judgment/jury of executive opinion method.

4. Delphi method.

A group of experts exchange views, and each independently

gives estimates and assumptions to a facilitator who

reviews the data and issues a summary report.

Page 79: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

5. Time series analysis.

Data over a period of time have taken toconsideration to predict the future

6. Market test method.

the product is launched in a few selectedcities/town to check the response ofcustomers towards the product

7. Correlation method.

By checking relationship of various salesdetermine variables

Page 80: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

8. Trend Projections: MethodsGraphical Methods: past values of variable in

different time is plotted in a graph andmovement of the series assessed and futurevalues are forecasted.

9. Least Squares Methodtool to estimate the coefficient of a linear function

based on minimization of squared deviationsbetween best fitting line and originalobservations given.

10. Econometrics Methodsrelates a dependent variable to one or more

independent variables in the form of linearequation.

Page 81: Study Material on Project Management · •Knowledge of market, products, and services. •Knowledge of potential customer choice. •Emerging trends in demand for particular product

Demand Forecasting of New Products:

1. Evolutionary approach

2. Substitute approach

3. Market testing approach

4. The potential consumer approach.

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Criteria of Good Forecasting Method:

• Simplicity and Ease of Comprehension:

• Durability:

• Accuracy:

• Availability:

• Economy:

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Demand/Sales Forecasting Procedure:

1. Determining the objective and the purpose for which the forecasts are to be used.

2. Determining the relative importance of the factor which affect sales of each product.

3. Selecting the appropriate forecasting method.

4. Collecting and analysing the data.

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Demand/Sales Forecasting Procedure:

5. Making assumption regarding effect of factor.

6. Making specific forecasts relating to the product and territories involved.

7. periodically reviewing and reviving the forecasts.

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Market and Demand Analysis

Prof : M N ZAMIR

Department of Commerce

Aligarh Muslim University

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Market and Demand Analysis

• Before a detailed study of a project is undertaken,it is necessary to know, at least roughly, the sizeof the market.

• the viability of the project depends critically onwhether the anticipated level of sales exceeds acertain volume.

• It helps to identify the extend of success of theprojects

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What’s Involved in a Market Analysis

• Decide on your target market Š

• How many of them, how fast growing (or

declining), how dispersed? Š

• How do they buy and use the product, where do

they buy, how do they respond to various

advertising and promotion, how price-sensitive

are they? Š

• What are their needs (basis for your value

proposition), and are these changing over time?

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Target Market

Can be defined… Š

• Geographically—global, national, local, etc. Š

• Demographically—using variables such as age,income, sex, households

• ŠBusiness type or size— small, medium, large -

• Š By need—two-income families needconvenience, Internet companies needexposure, people on low carb diets

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Critical Factors in Market and Demand Analysis

• Product related factors

Proprietary,

Substitutes,

IP (patent) ,

user experience

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Market Factors

Size of the market,

Growth,

Competition,

Barriers,

Industry

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Consumer related Factors

End user of product,

Motivational level of customers

Need,

Want,

Now vs. Future taste of customers

Reach them ( advertisement )

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Firm Level Factors

• Costs to launch (R&D, regulations, infrastructure, marketing…)

• Expected Profit

• Management policy

• Relationship with Suppliers

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INFORMATION REQUIRED FOR MARKET AND DEMAND

ANALYSIS

• Effective demand in the past and present

• Breakdown of demand(i) nature of product, (ii) consumer group, (iii) geographical division.

• Price related information (i) manufacturer’s price quoted as FOB (free on board) price or CIF (cost, insurance, and freight) price,

(ii) landed price for imported goods,

(iii) average wholesale price, and

(iv) average retail price.

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• Methods of distribution and sales promotion

Channel of distribution,

• Nature Consumers

age, sex, income, avocation, residence, religion, customs, beliefs, and social background.

• Governmental policy

Governmental plans, policies, legislations, import and export trade controls, import duties, export incentives, excise duties, sales tax, industrial licensing, preferential purchases, credit controls, financial regulations,

• Supply and competition

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Sources of Information

• Primary Sources

Primary sources are first-hand accounts or individual responses/ opinion/ complements etc

• Secondary Sources

Secondary sources build off of primary sources with more extensive and in-depth analyses. They summarize, evaluate, and analytically interpret primary material, often by offering a personal perspective.

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Primary Sources • Own research in marketing

• Data from (a) Salesmen

(b) Dealers;

(c) Consumers etc.

• Market Survey

• Market experiments

• Free sample distributions/ exhibitions etc

• Consumer interview

• Controlled Experiments

• Stimulations

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Secondary Sources • Census of India—it provides information on

population, demography characteristics,household size and composition, andmaps.

• National sample survey reports— these reportspresent information on various economic andsocial aspects like patterns of consumption,distribution of households by the size of consumerexpenditure, distribution of industries, andcharacteristics of the economically activepopulation.

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• Plan reports- Issued by the Planning Commission (NITI Ayog) these reports and documents provide a wealth of information on plan proposals, physical and financial targets, actual outlays, accomplishments, etc.

• Statistical abstract of the Indian Union, An annual publication of the Central Statistical Organisation, it provides, inter alia, demographic information, estimates of national income, and agricultural and industrial statistics.

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• India Year Book; An annual publication of the Ministry of Information and Broadcasting, it provides wide ranging information on economic and other aspects.

• Trade Associations:

• Various trade associations like Chambers of Commerce, Export Promotion Council etc, publish useful data which is of immense help to the res warmer.

• Respective state governments/ local government publications

• Academic research and publications

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MARKET SURVEY

• Secondary information, though useful, often

does not provide a comprehensive basis for

demand and market analysis.

• It needs to be supplemented with primary

information gathered through a market survey,

specific for the project being appraised.

• Market survey provides first hand information

with high reliability

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The information sought in a market survey mayrelate to one or more of the following

(i) Total demand and rate of growth of demand;

(ii) Demand in different segments of the market;

(iii)Income and price elasticity of demand;

(iv)Motives for buying;

(v) Purchasing plans and intentions;

(vi)Satisfaction with existing products;

(vii)Unsatisfied needs;

(viii)Attitudes toward various products

(ix)Distributive trade practices and preferences;

(x) Socio-economic characteristics of buyers.

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Steps in a sample survey

• Definition of the target population

In defining the target population the important terms should be carefully and unambiguously defined.

• Selection of sampling scheme and sample size

• On the basis of nature of the project/ product select appropriate sampling method

There are several sampling schemes-

simple random sampling, cluster sampling, sequential sampling, stratified sampling, systematic sampling, and non probability sampling.

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• Preparation of the questionnaire—The effectiveness of the questionnaire as a device for eliciting the desired information depends on its length,

• Recruiting and training of field investigators

Great care must be taken for recruiting the right kinds of investigators and imparting the proper kind of training to them.

• Obtaining information as per the questionnaire

from the sample of respondents—

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• Scrutiny of information gathered

Information gathered should be thoroughly scrutinized to eliminate data which is internally inconsistent and which is of dubious validity.

• Analysis and interpretation of data—

After tabulating it as per a plan of analysis, suitable statistical investigation may be conducted, wherever possible and necessary.

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DEMAND FORECASTING

• Meaning and concept

• Methods of Demand forecasting

• importance of Demand forecasting

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Business Presentation

Prof : M N Zamir

Department of Commerce

AMU

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Business Presentation?

• Companies and organizations often utilize business presentations as a means of selling an idea or product, for training purposes, or to motivate the audience.

• It is typically a demonstration, introduction, lecture, or speech meant to inform, persuade, inspire, motivate or to build good will or to present a new idea or product.

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Qualities of good presentation

• Informative

Good presentations leave the audience with new information that’s often enlightening and eye-opening

• Inspiring

It's essential that a business presentation capture the audience's attention. To capture the audience's attention, the presentation also needs to focus on the most important points

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• Visually AppealingUsing physical or visual props during a presentation

also affect its impact on the audience. Screen projectors, slides, handouts, colourful posters,

as well as the body language of the presenter, all add up to make a presentation stand out

• ConnectingBusiness presentations that are interactive and

involve the audience -- such as question-and-answer sessions, games, role-playing, and contests that include small prizes -- create a memorable bonding experience between the presenter and the audience

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Features of business presentation

• A good opening

• Logical structure

• Good visuals

• Eye contact with audience

• Tone of voice

• Pitch and Pace

• Confident manner PPP (prepare, plan, practice)

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Importance of Business Presentation

Companies primarily use business presentations to share information with employees, managers and executives. The following information are shared;

• Market and Competitive Information

• Company Performance

• Customer Information

• To keep employees are motivated

• To update a New Products

• To make awareness about general economic condition

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Time management in presentation• List everything needed to present

• Break down big topics (like essays) into chunks

• Priorities presentation topics.

• Segregate total time according to relevance of topic

• Maintain a good eye contact with audience throughout the presentation

• Managing the ‘mental clock’ during presentation

• Flexibility in presentation

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Presentation plan • Analyze the audience

• Select a topic

• Define the objective of the presentation

• Prepare the body of the presentation

• Prepare the introduction and conclusion

• Practice delivering the presentation

• Speaking from Memory

• Speaking from Notes

• Speaking from Text

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Power Point Presentation • PowerPoint is the most

popular presentation program which allows

users to create, edit and show

beautiful presentations with the help of slides.

The user can combine the text, graphics and

multimedia to support a presentation.

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Benefits of PowerPoint• Visual ImpactPowerPoint allows to use images, audio and video to have a

greater visual impact. These visual and audio cues may also help a presenter be more

improvisational and interactive with the audience.• CollaborationMultiple people can collaborate on and contribute to a

presentation.• Content SharingOne can upload their presentation to websites such as YouTube,

slideshare.com etc, with everything featured of work including all of the slides, commentary and transitions.

FlexibilityPowerPoint can be used in a number of different effective ways

to communicate with the targeted audience.

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Handling Queries and questions • Talk to the audience, not just the person asking the

question. ...

• Be respectful: avoid sarcasm, criticism, or arrogance.

• Keep your sense of humour.

• Answer the question as directly and briefly as possible without being abrupt.

• Use your answers to reinforce your main points

• Credit The Person “That was a great question”

• Admit That You Don't Know, if you don't know the answer say, "I don't know the answer to that question but give me your card and I will get back to you."

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Visual aids and animation • A visual aid supplements words with pictures,

charts, graphs, or other visual information. They are important because they help the audience understand and remember, increase audience interest, and act as notes or reminders for the speaker.

• Animation is the technique of photographing successive drawings or positions of puppets or models to create an illusion of movement when the film is shown as a sequence.

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Power of Visual Communication

• Enhancing the Presentation

• Memorizing

• Concentration

• Repetition of Information

• Avoiding Distractions

• Systematizing Communication

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The end…