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To and Through: Community and Technical Colleges in South Seattle and South King County October 2018 By the Community Center for Education Results Supporting the Road Map Project

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Page 1: Student pathways to and through community and … › wp-content › uploads › 2018 › 10 › ...To and Through: Community and Technical Colleges in South Seattle and South King

To and Through:Community and Technical Colleges in South Seattle and South King County

October 2018

By the Community Center for Education Results

Supporting the Road Map Project

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To and Through | October 2018

PRESENTATIONOVERVIEW

Project context

Postsecondary enrollment of Road Map

high school graduates

Analysis of 2012 Road Map CTC cohort

• Cohort demographics

• Persistence and completion rates

• Indicators of student success

• Predictors of on-time completion

Recommendations for system leaders

Open questions and next steps

01

02

03

04

05

2

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SECTION 01

Project context

Postsecondary enrollment of Road Map

high school graduates

Analysis of 2012 Road Map CTC cohort

• Cohort demographics

• Persistence and completion rates

• Indicators of student success

• Predictors of on-time completion

Recommendations for system leaders

Open questions and next steps

01

02

03

04

05

Page 4: Student pathways to and through community and … › wp-content › uploads › 2018 › 10 › ...To and Through: Community and Technical Colleges in South Seattle and South King

The Road Map Project is a collective impact initiative that began in 2010 to improve student achievement from cradle through college and career in seven King County school districts: Auburn, Federal Way, Highline, Kent, Renton, (South) Seattle, and Tukwila.

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This research attempts to answer six questions…

01 How many Road Map high school graduates

enroll directly in college? Where do they enroll?

Who are Road Map high school graduates

that enroll directly in local CTCs?02

How many CTC students persist to

year two? How many complete or

transfer within three years?

03

To what extent is our system supporting Road

Map students to reach key indicators of student

success at community and technical colleges?

04

What are the strongest predictors of

on-time credential completion?05

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To and Through | October 2018

The Road Map Project is focusedon increasing credential attainment and closing opportunity gaps

increase equitable policies and practices

in our education systems and dramatically

improve outcomes for children and youth,

from cradle through college and career

By 2020...

eliminate the opportunity and achievement

gaps impacting students of color and low-

income children in South King County and South

Seattle, and 70 percent of the region’s youth will

earn a college degree or career credential.

By 2030...

6

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To and Through | October 2018

CCER provides reliable informationand support for practice improvement

Partnership with community and technical colleges

01 Provide information that can

help illuminate current realities

and identify “bright spots”

worth investigation

Partner with local colleges

and other partners to support

improvement efforts

02

• Community and Technical College Report

• Analysis for individual colleges based on

local questions

• Puget Sound Coalition for College and

Career Readiness/PSCCN

• King County Promise (in development)

• Partnerships with individual colleges (in development)

Examples

7

Page 8: Student pathways to and through community and … › wp-content › uploads › 2018 › 10 › ...To and Through: Community and Technical Colleges in South Seattle and South King

The Road Map Project Annual Results Report tracks region wide progress against indicators of student success along the educational continuum.

roadmapproject.org/resources/results-report-2017/

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To and Through | October 2018

college readiness is a “bright spot” in the Road Map region...While there is still work to do,

College-level

Coursetaking

HS class of 2017 grads who

took an AP, IB, Cambridge,

Running Start, or College

in the HS courses.

Career & Technical

Education

HS class of 2017 grads

who completed a CTE

program. See page 35.

College Academic

Distribution Requirements

HS class of 2017 grads who

met the minimum CADRs

requirements to apply for a

4-year college in state.

On-time Graduation

Students who graduated

HS within four years.

See page 26.

Extended Graduation

Students who graduated

HS within five years.

Federal Financial Aid for

Postsecondary Education

Hs class of 2017 grads who

submitted the Free Application

for Student Financial Aid.

Coursetaking & High School Graduation

9

2016-17 Academic Year Average Rate

Baseline Rate

Progress Made

No Progress/Negative Performance

American Indian

Pacific Islander

Asian

Black/African American

Hispanic/Latino of Any Race

Two or More Races

White

Sources: The BERC Group; National Student Clearinghouse (NSC) and OSPI CEDARS student -level data via ERDC; OSPI Report

Card Data Files; U.S. Department of Education: Federal Student Aid Office. Prepared by CCER Data & Research Team

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To and Through | October 2018

...but college enrollment, persistence and completion trends remain low

College Direct Enrollment

HS class of 2016 grads who

enrolled in college one year

after graduating HS.

See page 26

Every Enrolled in College

9th graders in 2008 who ever

enrolled in a 2- or 4-year

college by the end of the

2016-17 academic year

College Persistence

9th graders in 2008 who ever

persisted to a 2nd year at a 2-

or 4-years college by the end

of the 2016-17 academic year.

Degree Attainment

9th graders in 2008 who

earned a 2- or 4-year

college credential, or degree

by the end of the 2016-17

academic year.

College Enrollment & Success Measures

10

2016-17 Academic Year Average Rate

Baseline Rate

Progress Made

No Progress/Negative Performance

American Indian

Pacific Islander

Asian

Black/African American

Hispanic/Latino of Any Race

Two or More Races

White

Source. CCER education data warehouse: OSPI CEDARS and NSC student -level via ERDC

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To and Through | October 2018

Rates of direct college enrollment have remained relatively flat since the beginning of the Road Map project

11

0

2013201220112010 201620152014

61%60%

62% 62%60%

62%

59%

Road Map

Region

Sources. CCER education data warehouse: OSPI CEDARS student-level data via ERDC; National Student Clearinghouse (NSC) via ERDC.

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To and Through | October 2018

What more can we do to address the “leaky pipeline”?

Black students: 19%

Latinx students: 16%

American Indian/

Alaskan Native: 11%

Native Hawaiian/

other Pacific Islander: 10%

12

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Other CCER reports dive more deeply into sector specific issues.

• 2016 CTC report

• Unique look at outcomes for Road Map high school graduates

• Established indicators of student success

• Disaggregation by race/ethnicity

• Breakout by collegeJanuary 2016

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To and Through | October 2018

The 7 Road Map districts send large shares of their high school graduates to 7 local CTCs

• Auburn

• Federal Way

• Highline

• Kent

• Renton

• Seattle (South)

• Tukwila

*This analysis does not include students who enroll

directly from other districts or enroll in other colleges

Students from

these districts...

...enroll directly in large

numbers at these CTCs

• Bellevue College

• Green River College

• Highline College

• Renton Technical College

• North Seattle College

• Seattle Central College

• South Seattle College

FOCUS OF

THIS ANALYSIS*KENT

AURBURN

FEDERAL

WAY

HIGHLINE

RENTON

SOUTH

SEATTLE

TUKWILLA

14

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SECTION 02

Project context

Analysis of 2012 Road Map CTC cohort

• Cohort demographics

• Persistence and completion rates

• Indicators of student success

• Predictors of on-time completion

Recommendations for system leaders

Open questions and next steps

01

03

04

05

Postsecondary enrollment of Road Map

high school graduates

02

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To and Through | October 2018

48% of direct enrollees start at a public 2-year college in the state

On average,

WA CTC

WA public 4-year

Other college

No direct enroll

16

SOURCES: ERDC HS Feedback Report (2016). Figures include some rounding to sum to 100. South Seattle includes Chief Sealth, Cleveland, Franklin, Garfield, Rainier Beach

Tukwila

South Seattle

Kent

Renton

Road Map Region (avg)

Auburn

Federal Way

Highline

35%

34%

32%

32%

30%

28%

27%

26%

28%

28%

24%

23%

24%

13%16%

24%

24%

1%

12%

9%

7%

9%

10%

13%

43%

36%

26%

35%

38%

37%

39%

37%

Direct College Enrollment among 2016 Road Map Project Region High School Graduates by School District and Type of College

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SECTION 03

Project context

Recommendations for system leaders

Open questions and next steps

01

04

05

Postsecondary enrollment of Road Map

high school graduates

02

Analysis of 2012 Road Map CTC cohort

• Cohort demographics

• Persistence and completion rates

• Indicators of student success

• Predictors of on-time completion

03

Page 18: Student pathways to and through community and … › wp-content › uploads › 2018 › 10 › ...To and Through: Community and Technical Colleges in South Seattle and South King

To and Through | October 2018

29% of Road Map high school 2012 graduates enrolled directly into Road Map region CTCs. Rates of enrollment vary significantly by race/ethnicity.

18

SOURCES: OSPI CEDARS student-level data via ERDC. SBCTC and National Student Clearinghouse (NSC) via ERDC. South Seattle includes Chief Sealth, Cleveland, Franklin, Garfield, Rainier Beach and South Lake.

Asian(n=1,497)

Black/African American(n=1,003)

Latinx(n=1,043)

White(n=3,060)

American Indian(n=56)

Two or More Races

(n=371)

Pacific Islander(n=152)

29% 37% 34%

37% 41% 22%

30% 34% 36%

27% 24% 49%

28% 40% 32%

26% 26% 48%

17% 40% 42%

14% 24% 61%

All Students(n=7,182)

Directly Enrolled into a RMP CTC Directly Enrolled into College Other than RMP CTC No Direct Enrollment

Direct College Enrollment among 2012 Road Map Project Region High School Graduates by School District and Type of College

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To and Through | October 2018

There are clear high school to CTC “feeder patterns” in the Road Map region (Class of 2012)

19

Bellevue(RMP direct enrollees=362)

Green River(RMP direct enrollees=585)

Highline(RMP direct enrollees=656)

Renton(RMP direct enrollees=85)

Seattle Central(RMP direct enrollees=170)

Seattle South(RMP direct enrollees=227)

78%

Auburn(n=266)

Federal Way(n=324)

Highline(n=324)

Kent(n=543)

Renton(n=260)

South Seattle(n=323)

Tukwila(n=54)

55%

53%

58%

35%

38%

77%

57%

Sources. CCER education data warehouse: OSPI CEDARS student-level data and SBCTC via ERDC; Note: While North Seattle College is included in the analysis, the results fo r this college have been suppressed–to

ensure student privacy, results with fewer than 10 student are suppressed.

Community and Technical College Feeder Patterns among Road Map Project Region 2012 High School Graduates who Directly Enrolle d in a Local CTC by Local CTCs

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To and Through | October 2018

60% of students in the cohort are students of color

2,094

Students

46%

Low-Income at the

time of HS graduation

61%

Enrolled full-time

20

White,

844, 40%

Asian

564, 27%

Black/African

American

306, 15%

Latinx

283, 13%

Two or More Races, 61, 3%

Pacific Islander, 21, 1%

American Indian, 15, 1%

Sources. CCER education data warehouse: OSPI CEDARS student-level data and SBCTC via ERDC

Student Demographics among Road Map Project Region 2012 High School

Graduates who Directly Enrolled in a Local CTC

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To and Through | October 2018

Almost one-third of students do not enroll in fall of their second year

Retained/transferred/completed

Did not enroll in fall term of second year

21

31%

23%

28%

33%

39%

44%

52%

53%

69%

77%

72%

67%

61%

56%

48%

47%

All Students

Asian

White

Two or More

Latinx

Black/African American

Pacific Islander

Native American n=15

n=21

n=306

n=283

n=61

n=844

n=564

n=2,094

075% 75%50% 25% 25% 50% 100%100%

Sources. CCER education data warehouse: OSPI CEDARS student-level data and SBCTC via ERDC

Persistence in Year Two among Road Map Project Region 2012 High School Graduates who

Directly Enrolled in a Local CTC by Race and Ethnicity

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To and Through | October 2018

Fewer than half of students complete or transfer within three years(2012 high school graduates)

22

075% 75%50% 25% 25% 50%

All Students(n=2,094)

Asian(n=564)

White(n=844)

Two or More Races(n=61)

Latinx(n=283)

Pacific Islander(n=21)

American Indian(n=15)

Black/African American(n=306)

32%

31%

25%

37%

37%

36%

48%

67%

14%

9%

4%

8%

7%

5%

7%

26%

15%

33%

37%

31%

23%

19%

20% 7%

5%

8%

12%

8%

17%

16%

24%

26%

11%

14%

15%

25%

43%10%14% 19%

54%

42%

41%

33%

32%

26%

13%

57%

46%

58%

59%

67%

68%

74%

87%

100% 100%

Any Completion and Transfer

Still Enrolled

Left Local CTCs

Any Completion, No Transfer

Transfer, No Award

Sources. CCER education data warehouse: OSPI CEDARS student-level data and SBCTC via ERDC

Three-year Outcomes among Road Map Project Region 2012 High School Graduates who

Directly Enrolled in a Local CTC by Race and Ethnicity

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To and Through | October 2018

Full time students are more likely to complete and/or transfer within three years than students who attend less than full time(2012 high school graduates)

075% 75%50% 25% 25% 50% 100%100%

23

Full Time(n=1276)

All Students(n=2094)

Part-Time(n=818)

43%57%

43% 49%51%

43%33%67%

32% 10%26% 14% 19%

13%16% 20%

11% 17% 5%

24%

28%

27%

39%

Any Completion and Transfer

Still Enrolled

Left Local CTCs

Any Completion, No Transfer

Transfer, No Award

16%

Differential

Sources. CCER education data warehouse: OSPI CEDARS student-level data and SBCTC via ERDC

Enrollment Status among Road Map Project Region 2012 High School Graduates who Directly

Enrolled in a Local CTC by Full- and Part-time Enrollment Status and Three-Year Outcomes

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To and Through | October 2018

There is substantial variation in three year completion/transfer rates by college... (2012 high school graduates)

24

All Road Map CTCs(n=2094)

Highline College(n=656)

Green River College(n=585)

Bellevue College(n=362)

Seattle South College(n=227)

Seattle Central College(n=170)

Renton Technical College(n=85)

31%

30%

59%

34%

26%

35%

15%

11%

7%

8%

6%

30%

31%

42%

44% 9%

12%

20%

34%

17%

9%

10%

13%

8%

12%

39%37%

61%

61%

65%

68%

79%

63%

39%

39%

35%

32%

21%

32% 26% 43%10%14% 19%57%

075% 75%50% 25% 25% 50%100% 100%

Any Completion and TransferStill EnrolledLeft Local CTCs Any Completion, No Transfer Transfer, No Award

Sources. CCER education data warehouse: OSPI CEDARS student-level data and SBCTC via ERDC

Three-Year Outcomes among Road Map Project Region 2012 High School Graduates

who Directly Enrolled in a Local CTC by Local CTC

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To and Through | October 2018

...and in three year completion/transfer rates by K-12 district.

25

All RMP Districts(n=2094)

Kent School District(n=543)

Auburn School District(n=266)

Seattle Public Schools(n=323)

Renton School District(n=260)

Highline Public Schools(n=324)

Federal Way Public Schools(n=324)

31%

27%

32%

35%

34%

34%

15%

15%

7%

6%

11%

17%

32%

34%

35% 13%

16%

16%

15%

13%

12%

12%

10%

10%

28%

31%42%

44%

58%

67%

68%

69%

58%

56%

42%

33%

32%

31%

32% 26% 43%10%14% 19%57%

Tukwila School District(n=54)

37% 6%37% 19% 26%74%

26% 18% 9%

6%

075% 75%50% 25% 25% 50%100% 100%

Any Completion and TransferStill EnrolledLeft Local CTCs Any Completion, No Transfer Transfer, No Award

Sources. CCER education data warehouse: OSPI CEDARS student-level data and SBCTC via ERDC

Three-Year Outcomes among Road Map Project Region 2012 High School Graduates who

Directly Enrolled in a Local CTC by K-12 District

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KEY INDICATORS OF STUDENT SUCCESS

01 College ready*

Complete 30 or more college credits in year one

02

Concentrate in year one*03

Pass college level math by end of year two04

What makes these “key” indicators?

• Identified as relevant via previous studies

• Relevant to and actionable for students and system leaders

• Measurable using readily available data

* New this year

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KEY INDICATORS OF STUDENT SUCCESS

Indicator Context

• High level of national attention

• Slows student progress to completion

• Costly for students and the state

• Shared responsibility between high schools and colleges

• Defined as not taking a developmental course during three year period and

• Enrolling in college level math and English or

• Concentrating in first year

* New this year

01 College ready*

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To and Through | October 2018 28

42%n=2,094

41%n=564

33%n=21

37%n=283

27%n=15

28%n=306

51%n= 844

36%n=61

All Students

Asian

White

Latinx

Pacific Islander

Black/African American

American Indian

Two or More Races

10% 20% 30% 50%0 40%

Sources. CCER education data warehouse: OSPI CEDARS student-level data and SBCTC via ERDC

College Readiness (Basic Measure) among Road Map Project Region 2012 High School Graduates who Directly Enrolled in a Local CTC

By Race and Ethnicity

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To and Through | October 2018

One-third of students in the cohort are “college ready” (no dev ed courses and enroll in college level math and English in first two years or concentrate in first year)

29

33%n=2,094

35%n=564

18%n=306

28%n=283

13%n=15

14%n=21

40%n=844

28%n=61

All Students

Asian

White

Two or More Races

Latinx

Pacific Islander

American Indian

Black/African American

10% 20% 30% 40%0%

Sources. CCER education data warehouse: OSPI CEDARS student-level data and SBCTC via ERDC

College Readiness (Refined Measure) among Road Map Project Region 2012 High School

Graduates who Directly Enrolled in a Local CTC by Race and Ethnicity

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To and Through | October 2018

Three year outcomes: College readiness

30

College Ready(n=693)

All Students(n=2094)

Not College Ready(n=1401)

43%57%

43% 56%44%

43%37%63%

32% 10%26% 14% 19%

18%19% 18%

12% 19% 6%

22%

27%

23%

36%

075% 75%50% 25% 25% 50%100% 100%

Any Completion and TransferStill EnrolledLeft Local CTCs Any Completion, No Transfer Transfer, No Award

19%

Differential

Sources. CCER education data warehouse: OSPI CEDARS student-level data and SBCTC via ERDC

College Readiness among Road Map Project Region 2012 High School Graduates who

Directly Enrolled in a Local CTC by Three-year Outcome and Readiness

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To and Through | October 2018

27% of students in the cohort are “college ready” in math...

31

27%n=2,094

32%n=564

13%n=306

26%n=61

7%n=15

10%n=21

32%n=844

21%n=283

All Students

Asian

White

Two or More Races

Latinx

Pacific Islander

American Indian

Black/African American

10% 20% 30% 40%0%

Sources. CCER education data warehouse: OSPI CEDARS student-level data and SBCTC via ERDC

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To and Through | October 2018

...and only 30% are “college ready” in English

32

30%n=2,094

31%n=564

18%n=306

25%n=61

13%n=15

14%n=21

36%n=844

25%n=283

All Students

Asian

White

Two or More Races

Latinx

Pacific Islander

American Indian

Black/African American

10% 20% 30% 40%0

Sources. CCER education data warehouse: OSPI CEDARS student-level data and SBCTC via ERDC

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KEY INDICATORS OF STUDENT SUCCESS

Indicator Context

• Credit accumulation demonstrates “momentum” toward a credential

• Previous research in Washington CTCs found year one credit accumulation to be “tipping point” that makes completion more likely

• Increasing national focus on supporting continuous enrollment (summer courses)

* New this year

02 Complete 30 or more college credits in year one

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To and Through | October 2018

40% of students complete 30 or more college credits in year one

34

10% 20% 30% 40%0%

40%n=2,094

45%n=564

22%n=306

44%n=61

14%n=21

20%n=15

45%n=844

34%n=283

All Students

Asian

White

Two or More Races

Latinx

American Indian

Pacific Islander

Black/African American

50%

Sources. CCER education data warehouse: OSPI CEDARS student-level data and SBCTC via ERDC

Completing 30 or More Credits in Year one among Road Map Project Region 2012 High School

Graduates who Directly Enrolled in a Local CTC by Race and Ethnicity

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To and Through | October 2018

Three year outcomes: Complete 30 or more college credits in year one

35

30+ Credits in First Year(n=829)

All Students(n=2094)

<30 Credits in First Year(n=1265)

43%57%

43% 65%35%

43%28%72%

32% 10%26% 14% 19%

21%24% 20%

8% 18%

23%

27%

12%

45%

075% 75%50% 25% 25% 50%100% 100%

Any Completion and TransferStill EnrolledLeft Local CTCs Any Completion, No Transfer Transfer, No Award

27%

Differential

Sources. CCER education data warehouse: OSPI CEDARS student-level data and SBCTC via ERDC

Figure 18. Completing 30 or More Credits in Year One among Road Map Project Region 2012 High School

Graduates who Directly Enrolled in a Local CTC by Three-year Outcome and 30 or more Credits

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KEY INDICATORS OF STUDENT SUCCESS

Indicator Context

• Accumulating credits is not the only goal --credits must build toward a credential

• Previous research has focused on concentration is correlated with on time completion

• Important indicator given recent interest in guided pathways

• Concentration = completing 15 credits in a specific program area

* New this year

03 Concentrate in year one*

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44% of students concentrate in a specific program in year one

37

20% 40%0%

44%n=2,094

51%n=61

36%n=283

44%n=844

20%n=15

29%n=21

51%n= 564

42%n=306

All Students

Two or More Races

Asian

White

Black/African American

Pacific Islander

American Indian

Latinx

10% 30% 50%

Sources. CCER education data warehouse: OSPI CEDARS student-level data and SBCTC via ERDC

Concentration in a Program of Study During Year One among Road Map Project Region

2012 High School Graduates who Directly Enrolled in a Local CTC by Race and Ethnicity

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Three year outcomes: Concentrate in year one

38

Concentrate(n=927)

All Students(n=2094)

Did no Concentrate(n=1167)

43%57%

43% 55%45%

43%33%67%

32% 10%26% 14% 19%

16%21% 19%

9% 19% 5%

27%

24%

18%

43%

075% 75%50% 25% 25% 50%100% 100%

Any Completion and TransferStill EnrolledLeft Local CTCs Any Completion, No Transfer Transfer, No Award

22%

Differential

Sources. CCER education data warehouse: OSPI CEDARS student-level data and SBCTC via ERDC

Concentration in a Program of Study During Year One among Road Map Project Region 2012 High School

Graduates who Directly Enrolled in a Local CTC by Three-Year Outcome and Course Concentration

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KEY INDICATORS OF STUDENT SUCCESS

Indicator Context

• College level math required for nearly all CTC credentials

• Math is a well documented barrier for CTC students

• Numerator = students who passed college level math by the end of their second year

• Denominator = all students in cohort

* New this year

04 Pass college level math by end of year two

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40% of all students in the cohort pass a college level math course by the end of year two

40

20% 40%0%

40%n=2,094

43%n=61

23%n=306

40%n=844

5%n=21

13%n=15

54%n= 564

36%n=283

All Students

Two or More Races

Asian

White

Black/African American

American Indian

Pacific Islander

Latinx

10% 30% 50%

Sources. CCER education data warehouse: OSPI CEDARS student-level data and SBCTC via ERDC

Taking a College-Level Math Course by End of Year Two among Road Map Project Region

2012 High School Graduates who Directly Enrolled in a Local CTC by Race and Ethnicity

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Three year outcomes: Pass college level math by end of year two (all students)

41

College Math

First Two Years(n=841)

All Students(n=2,094)

Did Not Pass College

Math First Two Years(n=1,253)

43%57%

43% 60%40%

43%31%69%

32% 10%26% 14% 19%

19%20% 21%

10% 17% 4%

28%

24%

12%

45%

075% 75%50% 25% 25% 50%100% 100%

Any Completion and TransferStill EnrolledLeft Local CTCs Any Completion, No Transfer Transfer, No Award

29%

Differential

Sources. CCER education data warehouse: OSPI CEDARS student-level data and SBCTC via ERDC

Taking a College-Level Math Course by End of Year Two among Road Map Project Region 2012 High School

Graduates who Directly Enrolled in a Local CTC by Three-year Outcome and Math

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Rate of three year credential completion and/or transfer by indicator and status

56%37%

65%28%

55%33%

60%31%

40%20%0 60% 80%

College-ready

30+ Credits

Concentrate

Pass College Math

+19%

+37%

+22%

+29%

Cohort Average: 43%

Yes

No

42

Sources. CCER education data warehouse: OSPI CEDARS student-level data and SBCTC via ERDC

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What abouthigh schoolcoursetaking?

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Approximately 1/3rd of Road Map CTC students (class of 2012) took an advanced placement (AP) course during high school and 1 in 10 took an IB course

44

Total Advanced Placement International Baccalaureate

All Students 2,094 33% 11%

Two or More Races 61 43% 11%

Asian 564 38% 11%

White 844 35% 10%

Latinx 283 29% 13%

Black/African American 304 25% 11%

American Indian 15 20% 7%

Pacific Islander 21 14% 14%

Sources. CCER education data warehouse: OSPI CEDARS student-level data and SBCTC via ERDC

Advanced Placement and International Baccalaureate Coursetaking rates among Road Map Project Region 2012 High

School Graduates who Directly Enrolled in a Local CTC by Race and Ethnicity

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Few differences in outcomes among CTC students who ever took an AP or IB course during high school

45

All Students(n=2094)

Did Not Take AP Course(n=1396)

Took AP Course(n=698)

Did Not Take IB Course(n=1859)

Took IB Course(n=235)

24%

35%

32%

32%

10%

10%

9%

29%

24%

26% 14%

15%

15%

13%

19%

17%

23%54%

59%

57%

57%

46%

41%

43%

43%

32% 26% 43%10%14% 19%57%

25% 14% 14%

075% 75%50% 25% 25% 50%100% 100%

5%

Differential

Any Completion and TransferStill EnrolledLeft Local CTCs Any Completion, No Transfer Transfer, No Award

no difference

Sources. CCER education data warehouse: OSPI CEDARS student-level data and SBCTC via ERDC

Advanced Placement and International Baccalaureate Coursetaking among Road Map Project Region 2012 High

School Graduates who Directly Enrolled in a Local CTC by Coursetaking and Three-year Outcome

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Running Start: an increasingly common intervention to boost college enrollment and success

• Initiated by the state

legislature in 1990

• Allows high school students to

take credit bearing college courses

• Students do not pay college

tuition, but must buy own

books and pay course fees

• Growing in popularity as a

way to reduce college costs

• Persistent questions about

equitable access

30,000

25,000

20,000

15,0002006-

07

2007-

08

2008-

09

2009-

10

2010-

11

2011-

12

2012-

13

2013-

14

2014-

15

2015-

16

2016-

17

SOURCES: Superintendent of Public Instruction, State Board for Community and Technical Colleges.

16,826

23,303

18,604

Mark Nowlin / The Seattle Times

Running Start enrollment over time (by headcount)

46

19,125

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Roughly one quarter of students in the 2012 cohort participated in Running Start

47

10% 20% 30% 40%0

24%n=2,094

24%n=21

16%n=306

20%n=564

13%n=61

16%n=283

34%n=844

20%n=15

All Students

Pacific Islander

White

Asian

American Indian

Latinx

Two or More Races

Black/African American

Sources. CCER education data warehouse: OSPI CEDARS student-level data and SBCTC via ERDC

Prior Running Start Enrollment among Road Map Project Region 2012 High School

Graduates who Directly Enrolled in a Local CTC by Race and Ethnicity

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Three year outcomes: Running Start participation

48

Running Start(n=512)

All Students(n=2,094)

43%57%

43% 62%38%

43%37%63%

32% 10%26% 14% 19%

23%23% 16%

11% 20% 6%

17%

28%

21%

35%Not in Running Start(n=1,582)

075% 75%50% 25% 25% 50%100% 100%

25%

Differential

Any Completion and TransferStill EnrolledLeft Local CTCs Any Completion, No Transfer Transfer, No Award

Sources. CCER education data warehouse: OSPI CEDARS student-level data and SBCTC via ERDC

Prior Running Start Enrollment among Road Map Project Region 2012 High School Graduates who Directly

Enrolled in a Local CTC by Three-year Outcome and Running Start in High School

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What are the strongest predictors of on-time credential completion?

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WHY CONDUCT A PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS?

01 Resource constrained environments require prioritization

Static look at indicators is useful, but does not fully explain what’s driving the difference in outcomes

02

Predictive analysis controls for other factors to identify key indicators/interventions

03

Caveat: Exploratory in nature and should not be viewed as definitive

04

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Overview of logistic regression

logit(P(AwdT = 1 | X)) = B0 +BiXiT

WHERE,

AwdT = {

AND,

Xi = matrix containing our indicators.

1 if student received an award and/or transferred to a 4-year college

0 if student is still enrolled or left the local CTC system

51

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Indicator Summary

Outcome of InterestAward attainment or

transfer to a 4-year school

within 3 years of enrolling

for direct enrollees.

DerivedHS

• Number of passed AP semesters.

• Number of passed IB semesters.

• Running start participation.

CTC

• Successful completion of college

level math after year 2.

• Overall credit accumulation

(30 or more) in year one.

• Program Concentration in

Year one.

OthersCTC

• Full-time status

Student Demographics

• Gender

• Race/Ethnicity

• Cohort year

52

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Our model could include more factors, but it is relatively stable

Area Under the curve (AUC) = 78% (helps

determine how well model is capturing the variance

accurately, ideally we want +80%)

Classification error = 19% (Cross validated measure

for generalizability, we want to be below 20%)

No cohort effects (this a good thing)

53

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Running Start

30 credits or more

Pass College Math

Concentrated

Passed AP

Yes

54

Analysis: HS and CTC factors and probabilityof three-year completion and/or transfer

10% 20% 30% 50%0 40%

56%

54%

36%

36%

33%

42%

36%

45%

36%

36%

No

Yes

No

Yes

No

Yes

No

Yes

No

Sources. CCER education data warehouse: OSPI CEDARS student-level data and SBCTC via ERDC

Predicted Likelihood of CTC Completion among Road Map Project Region 2011 and 2012 High School Graduates who Directly Enrolle d in a Local CTC By Indicator

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Analysis: Student characteristics and student success

Black/African American, Latinx, and Asian students are less likely to have positive outcomes when compared to their White peers.

Women have better outcomes than men in our region.

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SECTION 04

Project context

Open questions and next steps

01

05

Postsecondary enrollment of Road Map

high school graduates

02

Recommendations for system leaders04

Analysis of 2012 Road Map CTC cohort

• Cohort demographics

• Persistence and completion rates

• Indicators of student success

• Predictors of on-time completion

03

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Recommendations for local K-12 and CTC leaders

Results Strategies

Address unacceptable opportunity gaps that

exist by race/ethnicity• Provide additional resources and supports to students from historically underserved groups

Improve rates of direct college enrollment

• Partner with “feeder” HS/college to develop and implement a plan to improve enrollment rates with clear

targets

• Explore “promise” programs and interventions designed to reduce barriers to college

Minimize the need for developmental

education

• Use multiple measures to reduce the need for developmental education

• Consider co-requisite remediation and other models that can help students complete college level courses as

quickly as possible

Increase number of students who accumulate

30 credits in first year

• Encourage/support students to take more credits each semester

• Encourage/support students to enroll in summer courses

Build a better understanding around student

access to and experiences in Running Start

• Conduct further quantitative and qualitative analysis

• Improve access to Running Start and scale up participation if/as appropriate

Explore barriers to credential completion before

transferring to a four year institution

• Conduct further quantitative and qualitative analysis

• Consider strategies to automatically award credentials to students who meet requirements (e.g., reverse

transfer)

57

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Comprehensive efforts are needed to achieve dramatic improvements

Over 240 college promise programs nationally with

growing evidence of positive, sustained impact on

college enrollment and completion

Strongest models pair scholarship with high quality

student supports

Seattle in process of implementing a citywide promise

program for all graduating high school seniors

Students are more likely to complete if they “choose a

program and develop an academic plan early on, have a

clear road map of the courses they need to take to

complete a credential, and receive guidance and support

to help them stay on plan” (CCRC 2015)

Significant efforts to implement guided pathways are

underway nationally and within Washington State (WA

SBCTC and College Spark)

Two Road Map colleges – South Seattle and Renton Tech

– implementing now and others are in planning phases

“Promise” programs: “Guided pathways”:

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How do we ensure the “promise” doesn’t stop at Seattle city limits?

How do we accelerate the shift to guided pathways in Road Map CTCs?

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SECTION 05

Project context01

Postsecondary enrollment of Road Map

high school graduates

02

Recommendations for system leaders04

Analysis of 2012 Road Map CTC cohort

• Cohort demographics

• Persistence and completion rates

• Indicators of student success

• Predictors of on-time completion

03

Open questions and next steps 05

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Thank You!

Community Center for Education Results

Supporting the Road Map Project