Upload
others
View
0
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
To and Through:Community and Technical Colleges in South Seattle and South King County
October 2018
By the Community Center for Education Results
Supporting the Road Map Project
To and Through | October 2018
PRESENTATIONOVERVIEW
Project context
Postsecondary enrollment of Road Map
high school graduates
Analysis of 2012 Road Map CTC cohort
• Cohort demographics
• Persistence and completion rates
• Indicators of student success
• Predictors of on-time completion
Recommendations for system leaders
Open questions and next steps
01
02
03
04
05
2
SECTION 01
Project context
Postsecondary enrollment of Road Map
high school graduates
Analysis of 2012 Road Map CTC cohort
• Cohort demographics
• Persistence and completion rates
• Indicators of student success
• Predictors of on-time completion
Recommendations for system leaders
Open questions and next steps
01
02
03
04
05
The Road Map Project is a collective impact initiative that began in 2010 to improve student achievement from cradle through college and career in seven King County school districts: Auburn, Federal Way, Highline, Kent, Renton, (South) Seattle, and Tukwila.
This research attempts to answer six questions…
01 How many Road Map high school graduates
enroll directly in college? Where do they enroll?
Who are Road Map high school graduates
that enroll directly in local CTCs?02
How many CTC students persist to
year two? How many complete or
transfer within three years?
03
To what extent is our system supporting Road
Map students to reach key indicators of student
success at community and technical colleges?
04
What are the strongest predictors of
on-time credential completion?05
To and Through | October 2018
The Road Map Project is focusedon increasing credential attainment and closing opportunity gaps
increase equitable policies and practices
in our education systems and dramatically
improve outcomes for children and youth,
from cradle through college and career
By 2020...
eliminate the opportunity and achievement
gaps impacting students of color and low-
income children in South King County and South
Seattle, and 70 percent of the region’s youth will
earn a college degree or career credential.
By 2030...
6
To and Through | October 2018
CCER provides reliable informationand support for practice improvement
Partnership with community and technical colleges
01 Provide information that can
help illuminate current realities
and identify “bright spots”
worth investigation
Partner with local colleges
and other partners to support
improvement efforts
02
• Community and Technical College Report
• Analysis for individual colleges based on
local questions
• Puget Sound Coalition for College and
Career Readiness/PSCCN
• King County Promise (in development)
• Partnerships with individual colleges (in development)
Examples
7
The Road Map Project Annual Results Report tracks region wide progress against indicators of student success along the educational continuum.
roadmapproject.org/resources/results-report-2017/
To and Through | October 2018
college readiness is a “bright spot” in the Road Map region...While there is still work to do,
College-level
Coursetaking
HS class of 2017 grads who
took an AP, IB, Cambridge,
Running Start, or College
in the HS courses.
Career & Technical
Education
HS class of 2017 grads
who completed a CTE
program. See page 35.
College Academic
Distribution Requirements
HS class of 2017 grads who
met the minimum CADRs
requirements to apply for a
4-year college in state.
On-time Graduation
Students who graduated
HS within four years.
See page 26.
Extended Graduation
Students who graduated
HS within five years.
Federal Financial Aid for
Postsecondary Education
Hs class of 2017 grads who
submitted the Free Application
for Student Financial Aid.
Coursetaking & High School Graduation
9
2016-17 Academic Year Average Rate
Baseline Rate
Progress Made
No Progress/Negative Performance
American Indian
Pacific Islander
Asian
Black/African American
Hispanic/Latino of Any Race
Two or More Races
White
Sources: The BERC Group; National Student Clearinghouse (NSC) and OSPI CEDARS student -level data via ERDC; OSPI Report
Card Data Files; U.S. Department of Education: Federal Student Aid Office. Prepared by CCER Data & Research Team
To and Through | October 2018
...but college enrollment, persistence and completion trends remain low
College Direct Enrollment
HS class of 2016 grads who
enrolled in college one year
after graduating HS.
See page 26
Every Enrolled in College
9th graders in 2008 who ever
enrolled in a 2- or 4-year
college by the end of the
2016-17 academic year
College Persistence
9th graders in 2008 who ever
persisted to a 2nd year at a 2-
or 4-years college by the end
of the 2016-17 academic year.
Degree Attainment
9th graders in 2008 who
earned a 2- or 4-year
college credential, or degree
by the end of the 2016-17
academic year.
College Enrollment & Success Measures
10
2016-17 Academic Year Average Rate
Baseline Rate
Progress Made
No Progress/Negative Performance
American Indian
Pacific Islander
Asian
Black/African American
Hispanic/Latino of Any Race
Two or More Races
White
Source. CCER education data warehouse: OSPI CEDARS and NSC student -level via ERDC
To and Through | October 2018
Rates of direct college enrollment have remained relatively flat since the beginning of the Road Map project
11
0
2013201220112010 201620152014
61%60%
62% 62%60%
62%
59%
Road Map
Region
Sources. CCER education data warehouse: OSPI CEDARS student-level data via ERDC; National Student Clearinghouse (NSC) via ERDC.
To and Through | October 2018
What more can we do to address the “leaky pipeline”?
Black students: 19%
Latinx students: 16%
American Indian/
Alaskan Native: 11%
Native Hawaiian/
other Pacific Islander: 10%
12
Other CCER reports dive more deeply into sector specific issues.
• 2016 CTC report
• Unique look at outcomes for Road Map high school graduates
• Established indicators of student success
• Disaggregation by race/ethnicity
• Breakout by collegeJanuary 2016
To and Through | October 2018
The 7 Road Map districts send large shares of their high school graduates to 7 local CTCs
• Auburn
• Federal Way
• Highline
• Kent
• Renton
• Seattle (South)
• Tukwila
*This analysis does not include students who enroll
directly from other districts or enroll in other colleges
Students from
these districts...
...enroll directly in large
numbers at these CTCs
• Bellevue College
• Green River College
• Highline College
• Renton Technical College
• North Seattle College
• Seattle Central College
• South Seattle College
FOCUS OF
THIS ANALYSIS*KENT
AURBURN
FEDERAL
WAY
HIGHLINE
RENTON
SOUTH
SEATTLE
TUKWILLA
14
SECTION 02
Project context
Analysis of 2012 Road Map CTC cohort
• Cohort demographics
• Persistence and completion rates
• Indicators of student success
• Predictors of on-time completion
Recommendations for system leaders
Open questions and next steps
01
03
04
05
Postsecondary enrollment of Road Map
high school graduates
02
To and Through | October 2018
48% of direct enrollees start at a public 2-year college in the state
On average,
WA CTC
WA public 4-year
Other college
No direct enroll
16
SOURCES: ERDC HS Feedback Report (2016). Figures include some rounding to sum to 100. South Seattle includes Chief Sealth, Cleveland, Franklin, Garfield, Rainier Beach
Tukwila
South Seattle
Kent
Renton
Road Map Region (avg)
Auburn
Federal Way
Highline
35%
34%
32%
32%
30%
28%
27%
26%
28%
28%
24%
23%
24%
13%16%
24%
24%
1%
12%
9%
7%
9%
10%
13%
43%
36%
26%
35%
38%
37%
39%
37%
Direct College Enrollment among 2016 Road Map Project Region High School Graduates by School District and Type of College
SECTION 03
Project context
Recommendations for system leaders
Open questions and next steps
01
04
05
Postsecondary enrollment of Road Map
high school graduates
02
Analysis of 2012 Road Map CTC cohort
• Cohort demographics
• Persistence and completion rates
• Indicators of student success
• Predictors of on-time completion
03
To and Through | October 2018
29% of Road Map high school 2012 graduates enrolled directly into Road Map region CTCs. Rates of enrollment vary significantly by race/ethnicity.
18
SOURCES: OSPI CEDARS student-level data via ERDC. SBCTC and National Student Clearinghouse (NSC) via ERDC. South Seattle includes Chief Sealth, Cleveland, Franklin, Garfield, Rainier Beach and South Lake.
Asian(n=1,497)
Black/African American(n=1,003)
Latinx(n=1,043)
White(n=3,060)
American Indian(n=56)
Two or More Races
(n=371)
Pacific Islander(n=152)
29% 37% 34%
37% 41% 22%
30% 34% 36%
27% 24% 49%
28% 40% 32%
26% 26% 48%
17% 40% 42%
14% 24% 61%
All Students(n=7,182)
Directly Enrolled into a RMP CTC Directly Enrolled into College Other than RMP CTC No Direct Enrollment
Direct College Enrollment among 2012 Road Map Project Region High School Graduates by School District and Type of College
To and Through | October 2018
There are clear high school to CTC “feeder patterns” in the Road Map region (Class of 2012)
19
Bellevue(RMP direct enrollees=362)
Green River(RMP direct enrollees=585)
Highline(RMP direct enrollees=656)
Renton(RMP direct enrollees=85)
Seattle Central(RMP direct enrollees=170)
Seattle South(RMP direct enrollees=227)
78%
Auburn(n=266)
Federal Way(n=324)
Highline(n=324)
Kent(n=543)
Renton(n=260)
South Seattle(n=323)
Tukwila(n=54)
55%
53%
58%
35%
38%
77%
57%
Sources. CCER education data warehouse: OSPI CEDARS student-level data and SBCTC via ERDC; Note: While North Seattle College is included in the analysis, the results fo r this college have been suppressed–to
ensure student privacy, results with fewer than 10 student are suppressed.
Community and Technical College Feeder Patterns among Road Map Project Region 2012 High School Graduates who Directly Enrolle d in a Local CTC by Local CTCs
To and Through | October 2018
60% of students in the cohort are students of color
2,094
Students
46%
Low-Income at the
time of HS graduation
61%
Enrolled full-time
20
White,
844, 40%
Asian
564, 27%
Black/African
American
306, 15%
Latinx
283, 13%
Two or More Races, 61, 3%
Pacific Islander, 21, 1%
American Indian, 15, 1%
Sources. CCER education data warehouse: OSPI CEDARS student-level data and SBCTC via ERDC
Student Demographics among Road Map Project Region 2012 High School
Graduates who Directly Enrolled in a Local CTC
To and Through | October 2018
Almost one-third of students do not enroll in fall of their second year
Retained/transferred/completed
Did not enroll in fall term of second year
21
31%
23%
28%
33%
39%
44%
52%
53%
69%
77%
72%
67%
61%
56%
48%
47%
All Students
Asian
White
Two or More
Latinx
Black/African American
Pacific Islander
Native American n=15
n=21
n=306
n=283
n=61
n=844
n=564
n=2,094
075% 75%50% 25% 25% 50% 100%100%
Sources. CCER education data warehouse: OSPI CEDARS student-level data and SBCTC via ERDC
Persistence in Year Two among Road Map Project Region 2012 High School Graduates who
Directly Enrolled in a Local CTC by Race and Ethnicity
To and Through | October 2018
Fewer than half of students complete or transfer within three years(2012 high school graduates)
22
075% 75%50% 25% 25% 50%
All Students(n=2,094)
Asian(n=564)
White(n=844)
Two or More Races(n=61)
Latinx(n=283)
Pacific Islander(n=21)
American Indian(n=15)
Black/African American(n=306)
32%
31%
25%
37%
37%
36%
48%
67%
14%
9%
4%
8%
7%
5%
7%
26%
15%
33%
37%
31%
23%
19%
20% 7%
5%
8%
12%
8%
17%
16%
24%
26%
11%
14%
15%
25%
43%10%14% 19%
54%
42%
41%
33%
32%
26%
13%
57%
46%
58%
59%
67%
68%
74%
87%
100% 100%
Any Completion and Transfer
Still Enrolled
Left Local CTCs
Any Completion, No Transfer
Transfer, No Award
Sources. CCER education data warehouse: OSPI CEDARS student-level data and SBCTC via ERDC
Three-year Outcomes among Road Map Project Region 2012 High School Graduates who
Directly Enrolled in a Local CTC by Race and Ethnicity
To and Through | October 2018
Full time students are more likely to complete and/or transfer within three years than students who attend less than full time(2012 high school graduates)
075% 75%50% 25% 25% 50% 100%100%
23
Full Time(n=1276)
All Students(n=2094)
Part-Time(n=818)
43%57%
43% 49%51%
43%33%67%
32% 10%26% 14% 19%
13%16% 20%
11% 17% 5%
24%
28%
27%
39%
Any Completion and Transfer
Still Enrolled
Left Local CTCs
Any Completion, No Transfer
Transfer, No Award
16%
Differential
Sources. CCER education data warehouse: OSPI CEDARS student-level data and SBCTC via ERDC
Enrollment Status among Road Map Project Region 2012 High School Graduates who Directly
Enrolled in a Local CTC by Full- and Part-time Enrollment Status and Three-Year Outcomes
To and Through | October 2018
There is substantial variation in three year completion/transfer rates by college... (2012 high school graduates)
24
All Road Map CTCs(n=2094)
Highline College(n=656)
Green River College(n=585)
Bellevue College(n=362)
Seattle South College(n=227)
Seattle Central College(n=170)
Renton Technical College(n=85)
31%
30%
59%
34%
26%
35%
15%
11%
7%
8%
6%
30%
31%
42%
44% 9%
12%
20%
34%
17%
9%
10%
13%
8%
12%
39%37%
61%
61%
65%
68%
79%
63%
39%
39%
35%
32%
21%
32% 26% 43%10%14% 19%57%
075% 75%50% 25% 25% 50%100% 100%
Any Completion and TransferStill EnrolledLeft Local CTCs Any Completion, No Transfer Transfer, No Award
Sources. CCER education data warehouse: OSPI CEDARS student-level data and SBCTC via ERDC
Three-Year Outcomes among Road Map Project Region 2012 High School Graduates
who Directly Enrolled in a Local CTC by Local CTC
To and Through | October 2018
...and in three year completion/transfer rates by K-12 district.
25
All RMP Districts(n=2094)
Kent School District(n=543)
Auburn School District(n=266)
Seattle Public Schools(n=323)
Renton School District(n=260)
Highline Public Schools(n=324)
Federal Way Public Schools(n=324)
31%
27%
32%
35%
34%
34%
15%
15%
7%
6%
11%
17%
32%
34%
35% 13%
16%
16%
15%
13%
12%
12%
10%
10%
28%
31%42%
44%
58%
67%
68%
69%
58%
56%
42%
33%
32%
31%
32% 26% 43%10%14% 19%57%
Tukwila School District(n=54)
37% 6%37% 19% 26%74%
26% 18% 9%
6%
075% 75%50% 25% 25% 50%100% 100%
Any Completion and TransferStill EnrolledLeft Local CTCs Any Completion, No Transfer Transfer, No Award
Sources. CCER education data warehouse: OSPI CEDARS student-level data and SBCTC via ERDC
Three-Year Outcomes among Road Map Project Region 2012 High School Graduates who
Directly Enrolled in a Local CTC by K-12 District
KEY INDICATORS OF STUDENT SUCCESS
01 College ready*
Complete 30 or more college credits in year one
02
Concentrate in year one*03
Pass college level math by end of year two04
What makes these “key” indicators?
• Identified as relevant via previous studies
• Relevant to and actionable for students and system leaders
• Measurable using readily available data
* New this year
KEY INDICATORS OF STUDENT SUCCESS
Indicator Context
• High level of national attention
• Slows student progress to completion
• Costly for students and the state
• Shared responsibility between high schools and colleges
• Defined as not taking a developmental course during three year period and
• Enrolling in college level math and English or
• Concentrating in first year
* New this year
01 College ready*
To and Through | October 2018 28
42%n=2,094
41%n=564
33%n=21
37%n=283
27%n=15
28%n=306
51%n= 844
36%n=61
All Students
Asian
White
Latinx
Pacific Islander
Black/African American
American Indian
Two or More Races
10% 20% 30% 50%0 40%
Sources. CCER education data warehouse: OSPI CEDARS student-level data and SBCTC via ERDC
College Readiness (Basic Measure) among Road Map Project Region 2012 High School Graduates who Directly Enrolled in a Local CTC
By Race and Ethnicity
To and Through | October 2018
One-third of students in the cohort are “college ready” (no dev ed courses and enroll in college level math and English in first two years or concentrate in first year)
29
33%n=2,094
35%n=564
18%n=306
28%n=283
13%n=15
14%n=21
40%n=844
28%n=61
All Students
Asian
White
Two or More Races
Latinx
Pacific Islander
American Indian
Black/African American
10% 20% 30% 40%0%
Sources. CCER education data warehouse: OSPI CEDARS student-level data and SBCTC via ERDC
College Readiness (Refined Measure) among Road Map Project Region 2012 High School
Graduates who Directly Enrolled in a Local CTC by Race and Ethnicity
To and Through | October 2018
Three year outcomes: College readiness
30
College Ready(n=693)
All Students(n=2094)
Not College Ready(n=1401)
43%57%
43% 56%44%
43%37%63%
32% 10%26% 14% 19%
18%19% 18%
12% 19% 6%
22%
27%
23%
36%
075% 75%50% 25% 25% 50%100% 100%
Any Completion and TransferStill EnrolledLeft Local CTCs Any Completion, No Transfer Transfer, No Award
19%
Differential
Sources. CCER education data warehouse: OSPI CEDARS student-level data and SBCTC via ERDC
College Readiness among Road Map Project Region 2012 High School Graduates who
Directly Enrolled in a Local CTC by Three-year Outcome and Readiness
To and Through | October 2018
27% of students in the cohort are “college ready” in math...
31
27%n=2,094
32%n=564
13%n=306
26%n=61
7%n=15
10%n=21
32%n=844
21%n=283
All Students
Asian
White
Two or More Races
Latinx
Pacific Islander
American Indian
Black/African American
10% 20% 30% 40%0%
Sources. CCER education data warehouse: OSPI CEDARS student-level data and SBCTC via ERDC
To and Through | October 2018
...and only 30% are “college ready” in English
32
30%n=2,094
31%n=564
18%n=306
25%n=61
13%n=15
14%n=21
36%n=844
25%n=283
All Students
Asian
White
Two or More Races
Latinx
Pacific Islander
American Indian
Black/African American
10% 20% 30% 40%0
Sources. CCER education data warehouse: OSPI CEDARS student-level data and SBCTC via ERDC
KEY INDICATORS OF STUDENT SUCCESS
Indicator Context
• Credit accumulation demonstrates “momentum” toward a credential
• Previous research in Washington CTCs found year one credit accumulation to be “tipping point” that makes completion more likely
• Increasing national focus on supporting continuous enrollment (summer courses)
* New this year
02 Complete 30 or more college credits in year one
To and Through | October 2018
40% of students complete 30 or more college credits in year one
34
10% 20% 30% 40%0%
40%n=2,094
45%n=564
22%n=306
44%n=61
14%n=21
20%n=15
45%n=844
34%n=283
All Students
Asian
White
Two or More Races
Latinx
American Indian
Pacific Islander
Black/African American
50%
Sources. CCER education data warehouse: OSPI CEDARS student-level data and SBCTC via ERDC
Completing 30 or More Credits in Year one among Road Map Project Region 2012 High School
Graduates who Directly Enrolled in a Local CTC by Race and Ethnicity
To and Through | October 2018
Three year outcomes: Complete 30 or more college credits in year one
35
30+ Credits in First Year(n=829)
All Students(n=2094)
<30 Credits in First Year(n=1265)
43%57%
43% 65%35%
43%28%72%
32% 10%26% 14% 19%
21%24% 20%
8% 18%
23%
27%
12%
45%
075% 75%50% 25% 25% 50%100% 100%
Any Completion and TransferStill EnrolledLeft Local CTCs Any Completion, No Transfer Transfer, No Award
27%
Differential
Sources. CCER education data warehouse: OSPI CEDARS student-level data and SBCTC via ERDC
Figure 18. Completing 30 or More Credits in Year One among Road Map Project Region 2012 High School
Graduates who Directly Enrolled in a Local CTC by Three-year Outcome and 30 or more Credits
KEY INDICATORS OF STUDENT SUCCESS
Indicator Context
• Accumulating credits is not the only goal --credits must build toward a credential
• Previous research has focused on concentration is correlated with on time completion
• Important indicator given recent interest in guided pathways
• Concentration = completing 15 credits in a specific program area
* New this year
03 Concentrate in year one*
To and Through | October 2018
44% of students concentrate in a specific program in year one
37
20% 40%0%
44%n=2,094
51%n=61
36%n=283
44%n=844
20%n=15
29%n=21
51%n= 564
42%n=306
All Students
Two or More Races
Asian
White
Black/African American
Pacific Islander
American Indian
Latinx
10% 30% 50%
Sources. CCER education data warehouse: OSPI CEDARS student-level data and SBCTC via ERDC
Concentration in a Program of Study During Year One among Road Map Project Region
2012 High School Graduates who Directly Enrolled in a Local CTC by Race and Ethnicity
To and Through | October 2018
Three year outcomes: Concentrate in year one
38
Concentrate(n=927)
All Students(n=2094)
Did no Concentrate(n=1167)
43%57%
43% 55%45%
43%33%67%
32% 10%26% 14% 19%
16%21% 19%
9% 19% 5%
27%
24%
18%
43%
075% 75%50% 25% 25% 50%100% 100%
Any Completion and TransferStill EnrolledLeft Local CTCs Any Completion, No Transfer Transfer, No Award
22%
Differential
Sources. CCER education data warehouse: OSPI CEDARS student-level data and SBCTC via ERDC
Concentration in a Program of Study During Year One among Road Map Project Region 2012 High School
Graduates who Directly Enrolled in a Local CTC by Three-Year Outcome and Course Concentration
KEY INDICATORS OF STUDENT SUCCESS
Indicator Context
• College level math required for nearly all CTC credentials
• Math is a well documented barrier for CTC students
• Numerator = students who passed college level math by the end of their second year
• Denominator = all students in cohort
* New this year
04 Pass college level math by end of year two
To and Through | October 2018
40% of all students in the cohort pass a college level math course by the end of year two
40
20% 40%0%
40%n=2,094
43%n=61
23%n=306
40%n=844
5%n=21
13%n=15
54%n= 564
36%n=283
All Students
Two or More Races
Asian
White
Black/African American
American Indian
Pacific Islander
Latinx
10% 30% 50%
Sources. CCER education data warehouse: OSPI CEDARS student-level data and SBCTC via ERDC
Taking a College-Level Math Course by End of Year Two among Road Map Project Region
2012 High School Graduates who Directly Enrolled in a Local CTC by Race and Ethnicity
To and Through | October 2018
Three year outcomes: Pass college level math by end of year two (all students)
41
College Math
First Two Years(n=841)
All Students(n=2,094)
Did Not Pass College
Math First Two Years(n=1,253)
43%57%
43% 60%40%
43%31%69%
32% 10%26% 14% 19%
19%20% 21%
10% 17% 4%
28%
24%
12%
45%
075% 75%50% 25% 25% 50%100% 100%
Any Completion and TransferStill EnrolledLeft Local CTCs Any Completion, No Transfer Transfer, No Award
29%
Differential
Sources. CCER education data warehouse: OSPI CEDARS student-level data and SBCTC via ERDC
Taking a College-Level Math Course by End of Year Two among Road Map Project Region 2012 High School
Graduates who Directly Enrolled in a Local CTC by Three-year Outcome and Math
To and Through | October 2018
Rate of three year credential completion and/or transfer by indicator and status
56%37%
65%28%
55%33%
60%31%
40%20%0 60% 80%
College-ready
30+ Credits
Concentrate
Pass College Math
+19%
+37%
+22%
+29%
Cohort Average: 43%
Yes
No
42
Sources. CCER education data warehouse: OSPI CEDARS student-level data and SBCTC via ERDC
What abouthigh schoolcoursetaking?
To and Through | October 2018
Approximately 1/3rd of Road Map CTC students (class of 2012) took an advanced placement (AP) course during high school and 1 in 10 took an IB course
44
Total Advanced Placement International Baccalaureate
All Students 2,094 33% 11%
Two or More Races 61 43% 11%
Asian 564 38% 11%
White 844 35% 10%
Latinx 283 29% 13%
Black/African American 304 25% 11%
American Indian 15 20% 7%
Pacific Islander 21 14% 14%
Sources. CCER education data warehouse: OSPI CEDARS student-level data and SBCTC via ERDC
Advanced Placement and International Baccalaureate Coursetaking rates among Road Map Project Region 2012 High
School Graduates who Directly Enrolled in a Local CTC by Race and Ethnicity
To and Through | October 2018
Few differences in outcomes among CTC students who ever took an AP or IB course during high school
45
All Students(n=2094)
Did Not Take AP Course(n=1396)
Took AP Course(n=698)
Did Not Take IB Course(n=1859)
Took IB Course(n=235)
24%
35%
32%
32%
10%
10%
9%
29%
24%
26% 14%
15%
15%
13%
19%
17%
23%54%
59%
57%
57%
46%
41%
43%
43%
32% 26% 43%10%14% 19%57%
25% 14% 14%
075% 75%50% 25% 25% 50%100% 100%
5%
Differential
Any Completion and TransferStill EnrolledLeft Local CTCs Any Completion, No Transfer Transfer, No Award
no difference
Sources. CCER education data warehouse: OSPI CEDARS student-level data and SBCTC via ERDC
Advanced Placement and International Baccalaureate Coursetaking among Road Map Project Region 2012 High
School Graduates who Directly Enrolled in a Local CTC by Coursetaking and Three-year Outcome
To and Through | October 2018
Running Start: an increasingly common intervention to boost college enrollment and success
• Initiated by the state
legislature in 1990
• Allows high school students to
take credit bearing college courses
• Students do not pay college
tuition, but must buy own
books and pay course fees
• Growing in popularity as a
way to reduce college costs
• Persistent questions about
equitable access
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,0002006-
07
2007-
08
2008-
09
2009-
10
2010-
11
2011-
12
2012-
13
2013-
14
2014-
15
2015-
16
2016-
17
SOURCES: Superintendent of Public Instruction, State Board for Community and Technical Colleges.
16,826
23,303
18,604
Mark Nowlin / The Seattle Times
Running Start enrollment over time (by headcount)
46
19,125
To and Through | October 2018
Roughly one quarter of students in the 2012 cohort participated in Running Start
47
10% 20% 30% 40%0
24%n=2,094
24%n=21
16%n=306
20%n=564
13%n=61
16%n=283
34%n=844
20%n=15
All Students
Pacific Islander
White
Asian
American Indian
Latinx
Two or More Races
Black/African American
Sources. CCER education data warehouse: OSPI CEDARS student-level data and SBCTC via ERDC
Prior Running Start Enrollment among Road Map Project Region 2012 High School
Graduates who Directly Enrolled in a Local CTC by Race and Ethnicity
To and Through | October 2018
Three year outcomes: Running Start participation
48
Running Start(n=512)
All Students(n=2,094)
43%57%
43% 62%38%
43%37%63%
32% 10%26% 14% 19%
23%23% 16%
11% 20% 6%
17%
28%
21%
35%Not in Running Start(n=1,582)
075% 75%50% 25% 25% 50%100% 100%
25%
Differential
Any Completion and TransferStill EnrolledLeft Local CTCs Any Completion, No Transfer Transfer, No Award
Sources. CCER education data warehouse: OSPI CEDARS student-level data and SBCTC via ERDC
Prior Running Start Enrollment among Road Map Project Region 2012 High School Graduates who Directly
Enrolled in a Local CTC by Three-year Outcome and Running Start in High School
What are the strongest predictors of on-time credential completion?
WHY CONDUCT A PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS?
01 Resource constrained environments require prioritization
Static look at indicators is useful, but does not fully explain what’s driving the difference in outcomes
02
Predictive analysis controls for other factors to identify key indicators/interventions
03
Caveat: Exploratory in nature and should not be viewed as definitive
04
To and Through | October 2018
Overview of logistic regression
logit(P(AwdT = 1 | X)) = B0 +BiXiT
WHERE,
AwdT = {
AND,
Xi = matrix containing our indicators.
1 if student received an award and/or transferred to a 4-year college
0 if student is still enrolled or left the local CTC system
51
To and Through | October 2018
Indicator Summary
Outcome of InterestAward attainment or
transfer to a 4-year school
within 3 years of enrolling
for direct enrollees.
DerivedHS
• Number of passed AP semesters.
• Number of passed IB semesters.
• Running start participation.
CTC
• Successful completion of college
level math after year 2.
• Overall credit accumulation
(30 or more) in year one.
• Program Concentration in
Year one.
OthersCTC
• Full-time status
Student Demographics
• Gender
• Race/Ethnicity
• Cohort year
52
To and Through | October 2018
Our model could include more factors, but it is relatively stable
Area Under the curve (AUC) = 78% (helps
determine how well model is capturing the variance
accurately, ideally we want +80%)
Classification error = 19% (Cross validated measure
for generalizability, we want to be below 20%)
No cohort effects (this a good thing)
53
To and Through | October 2018
Running Start
30 credits or more
Pass College Math
Concentrated
Passed AP
Yes
54
Analysis: HS and CTC factors and probabilityof three-year completion and/or transfer
10% 20% 30% 50%0 40%
56%
54%
36%
36%
33%
42%
36%
45%
36%
36%
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Sources. CCER education data warehouse: OSPI CEDARS student-level data and SBCTC via ERDC
Predicted Likelihood of CTC Completion among Road Map Project Region 2011 and 2012 High School Graduates who Directly Enrolle d in a Local CTC By Indicator
Analysis: Student characteristics and student success
Black/African American, Latinx, and Asian students are less likely to have positive outcomes when compared to their White peers.
Women have better outcomes than men in our region.
SECTION 04
Project context
Open questions and next steps
01
05
Postsecondary enrollment of Road Map
high school graduates
02
Recommendations for system leaders04
Analysis of 2012 Road Map CTC cohort
• Cohort demographics
• Persistence and completion rates
• Indicators of student success
• Predictors of on-time completion
03
To and Through | October 2018
Recommendations for local K-12 and CTC leaders
Results Strategies
Address unacceptable opportunity gaps that
exist by race/ethnicity• Provide additional resources and supports to students from historically underserved groups
Improve rates of direct college enrollment
• Partner with “feeder” HS/college to develop and implement a plan to improve enrollment rates with clear
targets
• Explore “promise” programs and interventions designed to reduce barriers to college
Minimize the need for developmental
education
• Use multiple measures to reduce the need for developmental education
• Consider co-requisite remediation and other models that can help students complete college level courses as
quickly as possible
Increase number of students who accumulate
30 credits in first year
• Encourage/support students to take more credits each semester
• Encourage/support students to enroll in summer courses
Build a better understanding around student
access to and experiences in Running Start
• Conduct further quantitative and qualitative analysis
• Improve access to Running Start and scale up participation if/as appropriate
Explore barriers to credential completion before
transferring to a four year institution
• Conduct further quantitative and qualitative analysis
• Consider strategies to automatically award credentials to students who meet requirements (e.g., reverse
transfer)
57
Comprehensive efforts are needed to achieve dramatic improvements
Over 240 college promise programs nationally with
growing evidence of positive, sustained impact on
college enrollment and completion
Strongest models pair scholarship with high quality
student supports
Seattle in process of implementing a citywide promise
program for all graduating high school seniors
Students are more likely to complete if they “choose a
program and develop an academic plan early on, have a
clear road map of the courses they need to take to
complete a credential, and receive guidance and support
to help them stay on plan” (CCRC 2015)
Significant efforts to implement guided pathways are
underway nationally and within Washington State (WA
SBCTC and College Spark)
Two Road Map colleges – South Seattle and Renton Tech
– implementing now and others are in planning phases
“Promise” programs: “Guided pathways”:
How do we ensure the “promise” doesn’t stop at Seattle city limits?
How do we accelerate the shift to guided pathways in Road Map CTCs?
SECTION 05
Project context01
Postsecondary enrollment of Road Map
high school graduates
02
Recommendations for system leaders04
Analysis of 2012 Road Map CTC cohort
• Cohort demographics
• Persistence and completion rates
• Indicators of student success
• Predictors of on-time completion
03
Open questions and next steps 05
Thank You!
Community Center for Education Results
Supporting the Road Map Project