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The XLRI Student Fund Banking
The XLRI Student Fund
Equity Research Report # 3 July 2014
Sarvesh Singh
2 The XLRI Student Fund
SECTOR OUTLOOK- BANKING
STRONG GOVERNMENT MIGHT ACCELERATE ASSET QUALITY IMPROVEMENT: As BJP achieved majority in just concluded general elections, we are optimistic that the government would take strong steps with regards to asset quality improvement. The key infrastructural issues are likely to be resolved and payment norms would become clear and stringent. NPAs of PSU banks which stand at a level of 3-4% should come down in next few fiscals as a result of drive towards benign asset quality. FINANCIAL INCLUSION AND RURAL BANKING FOCUS: One major change over the past 4-5 years has been the increasing footprint of Indian banks in semi-urban and rural areas. In line with RBI mandate and increasing growth opportunities, private players such as ICICI Bank, Axis Bank and HDFC Bank has current rural and semi-urban footprints of more than 50%. It is notable that ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank had footprint of close to a quarter in 2009. Other private majors such as Yes Bank and IndusInd Bank has this footprint equal to 47% and 40%. So, going deeper into the unbanked areas has become the new theme for private banks and trend is expected to continue in the years to come.
25%
23%22%
30%
ICICI Bank
Metro
Urban
Rural
Semi urban
23%
21%
22%
34%
HDFC Bank
Metro
Urban
Rural
Semi urban
24%
24%24%
28%
Axis Bank
Metro
Urban
Rural
Semi urban
30%
30%
18%
22%
IndusInd Bank
Metro
Urban
Rural
Semi urban
Financial inclusion- percentage of branches in different regions
3 The XLRI Student Fund
SECTOR OUTLOOK- BANKING
FOCUS ON DE-RISKING OF BALANCE SHEET: The economy has not been on song for past4-5 years. In a deteriorating macro environment, the private banks have focussed on de-risking their balance sheets by either focussing on retail assets or on better rated corporate. RWA/assets, which was at 82% for Axis Bank in FY08-09, has improved to 75%, while for Yes Bank it has improved from ~80% to 70%. Moreover, RWA to balance sheet stands lowest for Yes Bank among peers at ~70%, followed by HDFC Bank and Axis Bank at 75%. IndusInd Banks RWA to assets has increased steadily since the past two years (from 68% in FY12 to 78% in FY14). ANTI-INFLATION MEASURES MAY TRIGGER RATE CUTS BY RBI: The major criticism of UPA government was high inflation which resulted in less headroom for RBI to cut repo rates. The high repo rates resulted in poor investment climate and lower growths. With BJP garnering the full majority by itself, strong anti-inflation measures are expected. We could expect inflation numbers to fall and rate cut by RBI by year end. Lower inflation combined with improved GDP outlook number would definitely help the banking industry stocks. ASSET QUALITY REMAINS A CONCERN: Bad loans could climb to 7% of total advances by March 2015, the RBI warned in a report in December. This is nearly equal to the size of the budget of Uttar Pradesh. The biggest chunk of the soured debts is with PSU banks, which account for two-third of loans but 80 per cent of NPAs. The RBI plans to take up with the government concrete suggestions on reining in NPAs. These include creation of additional debt recovery tribunals, creating special cadre of officers and a separate bench for speedy disposal of NPA-related cases. Asset quality pressures are high in mid-corporate and SME segments and these segments are more susceptible to decline in industrial GDP growth. Iron & Steel, infrastructure, power and textile sectors are worst hit by NPAs and new government is expected to look into these sectors to bring about structural reforms. .
4 The XLRI Student Fund
SECTOR OUTLOOK- BANKING
STATE OWNED ENTERPRISE BANKS REFORMS NEEDED: SOE banks have traditionally been devoid of autonomy vis a vis their private counterpart. On one hand they are excessively regulated by Finance ministry while on the other hand their Board is relatively less empowered. Dr P J Nayak Committee recommendations to allow more autonomy and less fiscal dependence of SOEs bank capital needs. With new strong government, structural reforms are expected to be carried in terms of tenure of chairman and allowing more regulatory functions to RBI. Fiscal Deficit to remain under control: In his maiden budget speech, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley has signalled stronger steps to curb the fiscal deficit in coming years. The government is targeting fiscal deficit of 3.6% for FY16 and 3% for FY17. Lowering down of fiscal deficit will be one key step in improving the macro economic scenario of the country and would result in lowering down of inflation and more headroom to government as well as RBI for reforms.
5 The XLRI Student Fund
SECTOR OUTLOOK- BANKING
CAD pressure has eased off providing more headroom to RBI: Indias ballooning CAD in FY13 and early-FY14 along with the US Federal Reserves announcement of tapering of its asset purchase programme in May13 resulted in the INR depreciating to record lows of 68.6 to the USD. The sharp respite on the INR since Aug13 (up ~11.4%) is largely due to measures taken by the new RBI Governor Dr. Raghuram Rajan, which resulted in huge inflows via FCNR (B) deposits (US$ 34bn). However, it has been the sharp decline in trade deficit figures that helped the rupee sustain at appreciated levels, even post the shutdown of the FCNR (B) swap window. Lower CD ratio will result in strong credit growth: In current high inflation scenario, lower Loan deposit ratio base would aid in uptick of CD ratio in coming years. As inflationary pressure is expected to cool off in coming years, our estimate is that credit growth might record 15-20% growth in next couple of years with increase in deposits of banks. Improving CASA ratios for PSU and Private banks, a positive signal for Indian Banking: Indian banking CASA for private banks are increasing gradually over the years at the cost of PSU banks share. However, CASA levels are encouraging for both PSU as well as private banks with most major players recording CASA ratio in the range of 32-45%. Increase in CASA ratio signals increase in Saving accounts and Current account deposits underscoring the growing retail segment of the banks. Higher CASA ratio also provides much needed cushions to banks during poor macro environment. Capitalisation levels a key differentiator among banks: One major concern for Indian banks is the transition to BASEL III norms by 2019. PSU banks with stressed asset quality and lower profitability would require close to Rs 2 trillion of capital expenditure. Recently, Finance ministry and RBI has cautioned banks to get their books clean by practicing tougher measures in recovery of loans. Private banks are in better position due to the cushion provided by their existing higher Capital Adequacy Ratios.
6 The XLRI Student Fund
SECTOR OUTLOOK- BANKING
Minimum capital ratios (% of RWAs)
April 1,
2013
March 31,
2014
March 31,
2015
March 31,
2016
March 31,
2017
March 31,
2018
March 31,
2019
Minimum Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) 4.50 5.00 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50
Capital conservation buffer (CCB) - - - 0.63 1.25 1.88 2.50
Minimum CET1+ CCB 4.50 5.00 5.50 6.13 6.75 7.38 8.00
Minimum Tier 1 capital 6.00 6.50 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00
Minimum Total Capital* 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00
Minimum Total Capital +CCB 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.63 10.25 10.88 11.50
TRANSITIONAL ARRANGEMENT-SCHEDULED COMMERCIAL BANKS
Poor Monsoons might hamper the recovery of macro scenario: Things dont look as rosy for the Agriculture sector, after a bumper FY14, amidst expectations of El Nino. Poor monsoons would result in stress in agricultural loans which is the major chunk of loan portfolio of several major banks mandated by Priority sector lending norms by RBI. Growth recovery could be stretched: We remain cautious on Indias prospects over the medium term while growth seems to have bottomed out, recovery could stretch well into FY15 and hence growth is likely to remain below-potential over FY14-FY15. With little scope for significant upside from the Agriculture sector due to higher chances of below-normal rainfall in FY15 (El Nino), weak Manufacturing and an unlikely turnaround in the Services sector due to elevated interest rates, we believe credit growth could fall to low levels of 12-14% in FY15, before bouncing back in FY16.
Date Jul 12, 2014
Market cap INR 1990 bn
52 wk L-H INR 560/861
P/E 23.8 x
ROE (%) 21.3
Shareholding pattern (Mar 31, 2014)
Promoter 22.6 %
Institutions 44.0 %
Others 33.4 %
Company overview One of the premier private bank in India in terms of
India with more than 3300 branches and 11500 ATMs.
HDFC bank is a leading player in retail banking,
wholesale banking, and treasury operations, its
three main business segments.
Its competitive strength lies in providing world
class service to its customers through superior
technology.
HDFC Bank has two subsidiaries, HDB Financial
Services Limited and HDFC Securities Limited.
Effective September 14, 2013, HDFC Bank Ltd has
raised its interest from 62.06% to 89.88%, by acquiring
further 27.82% interest in HDFC Securities Ltd
Trading Multiples
Investment Thesis Net Interest Income grew 16% to Rs 4635 cr driving Net Profit
growth of 25% to Rs 2326cr.
Benign asset quality with Gross NPA of 1% and Net NPA of
0.30% (10bps rise on YoY basis).
Advance and deposits both rose by 22.90% at Rs.
3,49,215 cr and Rs. 2,96,742 mn respectively in Q3 FY14.
HDFC Banks revenue rose in double digits in all the four
segments, treasury, retail, corporate and other banking
business at 26%, 17%, 16% and 26% respectively.
NIMs improved 20 bps on QoQ basis to 4.2% which is one of
the best among private banks.
Strong CASA uptick (26% rise on QoQ basis) with current
CASA ratio of44.8% makes HDFC Bank performance
commendable in stagflation period.
With tier-1 capital of 11.8%, the bank is well-capitalized for
over 20% business growth over FY15-16.
Key Risks
Slower retail growth might hamper the credit growth.
Stagnation in CV and auto loans are the barriers to
overcome.
Higher credit costs might occur due to expected
growth in FY15-16 remaining lower than expected.
This would result in deterioration of asset quality and
rise in NPA.
The high interest rate scenario would lead to gloomy
investment climate if RBI does not go for rate cuts in
next few quarters.
Quarterly Results:
Share Price Movement
Stock performance (%)
1m 6m 12m
Stock (2.2) 20.1 17.5
Nifty (1.2) 17.9 23.6
HDFC Bank CMP Rs. 836
Target
Rs. 870
Rating
Hold
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
7,500
8,000H
D
F
C
B
a
n
k
N
i
f
t
y
Nifty HDFC Bank
YE Mar (Values in Rs Cr) Q4FY13 Q4FY14 % YoY
Net Int Income 4295 4953 15.3%
Non- Interest Income 1804 2001 10.9%
Operating Expenses 3136 3175 1.2%
Provisions 300 286 -4.7%
PBT 2662 3493 31.2%
Tax 772 1167 51.2%
PAT 1889 2327 23.2%
EPS 7.9 9.6 21.5%
8 The XLRI Student Fund
Financial Summary CMP Rs. 836
Target
Rs.xxx
Rating
Hold Rs. 870
Income Statement
Ratio Analysis
Balance Sheet
Rs in Cr Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
Interest Earned 20043 28193 35861 42555
Other Income 4585 5992 7133 8298
Interest expended 9425 15106 19695 23445
Payments to/Provisions for Employees 2977 3573 4202 4494
Operating Expenses & Administrative Expenses 2091 2391 2892 3019
Depreciation 509 554 663 689
Other Expenses, Provisions & Contingencies 3669 4893 5538 5994
Provision for Tax 2285 2670 3374 4446
Deferred Tax -345 -276 -270 0
Net Profit 4018 5273 6900 8765
Minority Interest (after tax) 32 30 34 25
Extraordinary Items 0 1 -1 2
Adjusted Net Profit 3993 5246 6870 8741
Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
% of Net Non-Performing Assets to Net Advance 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3
Capital Adequacy Ratio (%) 15.3 15.7 15.9 15.6
Tier I Capital (%) 11.6 11.0 10.5 11.3
Tier II Capital (%) 3.8 4.7 5.4 5.3
Interest Income % Average Working Fund 8.0 9.6 9.9 9.7
Non Interest Income % Average Working Fund 1.8 2.0 1.9 1.9
Operating Profit % Average Working Fund 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.4
Return on Assets (%) 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.0
Business Per Employee (Rs. Cr) 6.5 6.5 7.5 8.9
Profit Per Employee (Rs. Cr) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Rs in Cr Mar 11 Mar 12 Mar 13 Mar 14
SOURCES OF FUNDS :
Capital 465 469 476 480
Reserves Total 25118 29741 36167 43687
Equity Application Money 3 0 0 0
Minority Interest 122 184 221 152
Deposits 208287 246540 296092 367080
Borrowings 14650 26334 39497 49597
Other Liabilities & Provisions 29393 37848 35328 42684
TOTAL LIABILITIES 248645 303268 372452 460995
APPLICATION OF FUNDS :
Cash & Balances with RBI 25101 14992 14631 25357
Balances with Banks & money at Call 4737 6184 12900 14556
Investments 70277 96795 110960 119571
Advances 160831 198838 247245 315419
Fixed Assets 2201 2378 2773 3026
Other Assets 14892 21931 19271 25749
TOTAL ASSETS 278039 341117 407781 503679
Date Jul 12, 2014
Market cap INR 1615 bn
52 wk L-H INR 759/1590
P/E 14.9 x
RoE (%) 14.1
Shareholding pattern (Mar 31, 2014)
Promoter -
Institutions 63.3 %
Others 36.7 %
Company overview Largest Private sector bank and second largest bank in
India in terms of assets and market capitalization.
Bank has more than 3500 branches and 11,000 ATMs.
One of the big four banks- others being SBI,PNB and
Bank of Baroda.
The Banks is the first Indian Bank listed on New York
Stock Exchange.
The Bank and their subsidiaries offers a wide range of
banking and financial services including commercial
banking, retail banking, project and corporate finance,
working capital finance, insurance, venture capital and
private equity, investment banking, broking and
treasury products and services.
Trading Multiples
Investment Thesis Healthy operating performance with robust NII growth
of 14.5% YoY to Rs. 4357 cr with a loan book growth of
16.7%.
PAT growth of 15.1% to Rs 2652 cr owing to strong
non interest income growth of 34% to Rs 2976cr.
Fresh Loan impairment equal to 4.68% of advances in
Q4FY14 resulting in stable Net NPA of 82bps
compared to 81bps in Q3FY14.
Average core CASA has also remained healthy at
39.4% during FY14 as compared to 38.0% in FY13
which led to decline in funding costs from 6.43% in
FY13 to 6.21% in FY14.
Despite of slowdown in growth, ICICI has maintained
better NIM number of 3.35% compared to its 3%
levels in past years.
Key Risks
High NPA levels will be a major reason of concern for
ICICI in future with current GNPA of 3.2% as one of the
highest among private sector banks.
ICICI will need the highest capitalization fund for
implementation of BASEL III norms compared to peer
banks. This might lead to dilution of share price.
High inflation and low growth scenario would lead to
high interest rate scenario which would hamper the
loan growth of the bank.
Quarterly Result
Share Price Movement
Stock performance (%)
1m 6m 12m
Stock (5.9) 27.0 26.7
Nifty (1.2) 17.9 23.6
ICICI Bank CMP Rs. 1459
Target
Rs. 1510
Rating
Hold
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
1,500
1,700
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
7,500
8,000I
C
I
C
I
B
a
n
k
N
i
f
t
y
Nifty ICICI Bank
YE Mar (Values in Rs Cr) Q4FY13 Q4FY14 % YoY
Net Int Income 3803 4356 14.5%
Non- Interest Income 2208 2976 34.8%
Operating Expenses 2407 2879 19.6%
Provisions 460 713 55.0%
PBT 3144 3639 15.7%
Tax 840 1087 29.4%
PAT 2304 2652 15.1%
EPS 20.0 23.0 15.0%
10 The XLRI Student Fund
Financial Summary CMP Rs. 1459
Target
Rs.xxx
Rating
Hold Rs. 1510
Income Statement
Ratio Analysis
Balance Sheet
Rs in Cr Mar 11 Mar 12 Mar 13 Mar 14
SOURCES OF FUNDS :
Capital 1152 1153 1154 1155
Reserves Total 54150 60121 67604 75268
Minority Interest 1358 1428 1706 2011
Deposits 259106 281950 314771 359513
Borrowings 125839 161297 172888 183542
Other Liabilities & Provisions 28136 47544 48261 53355
Policy Holders Fund 64482 66229 68911 74927
TOTAL LIABILITIES 506088 572181 627037 696422
APPLICATION OF FUNDS :
Cash & Balances with RBI 21234 20728 19306 22097
Balances with Banks & money at Call 18151 20428 30065 26161
Investments 209653 239864 255667 267609
Advances 256019 292125 329974 387342
Fixed Assets 5490 5432 5473 5507
Other Assets 23677 41147 34813 41061
TOTAL ASSETS 534224 619725 675298 749777
Rs in Cr Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
INCOME :
Interest Earned 30081 37995 44885 49479
Other Income 31513 28663 29320 30085
Interest expended 19343 25013 28285 29711
Payments to/Provisions for Employees 4393 5101 5629 5969
Operating Expenses & Administrative Expenses 2777 2784 7470 7986
Depreciation 740 671 625 719
Other Expenses, Provisions & Contingencies 25956 22408 18585 18898
Provision for Tax 2513 2571 3370 4316
Deferred Tax -444 172 110 289
Net Profit 6318 7938 10130 11677
Minority Interest (after tax) 225 295 526 636
Extraordinary Items 21 -3 25 97
Adjusted Net Profit 6072 7646 9578 10944
Equity Dividend (%) 140 165 200 230
Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
% of Net Non-Performing Assets to Net Advance 1.1 0.7 0.8 1.0
Capital Adequacy Ratio (%) 17.6 16.3 16.9 17.7
Tier I Capital (%) 11.8 11.1 11.5 12.8
Tier II Capital (%) 5.9 5.2 5.4 4.9
Interest Income % Average Working Fund 6.8 7.8 8.2 8.0
Non Interest Income % Average Working Fund 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.9
Operating Profit % Average Working Fund 2.4 2.4 2.7 3.0
Return on Assets (%) 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.8
Business Per Employee (Rs. Cr) 7.4 7.1 7.4 7.5
Profit Per Employee (Rs. Cr) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Date Jul 12, 2014
Market cap INR 897 bn
52 wk L-H INR 764/1990
P/E 11.6 x
RoE (%) 17.6
Shareholding pattern (Mar 31, 2014)
Promoter 27.36%
Institutions 58.54 %
Others 14.10 %
Company overview Third largest private bank in India in terms of loans
and advances.
As on 31-Mar-2014, the Bank had a network of 2402
branches and extension counters and 12922 ATMs.
Axis Bank was incorporated in the year 1993 with the
name UTI Bank Ltd.
The Bank operates in four segments, namely treasury,
retail banking, corporate/ wholesale banking and
other banking business.
The Bank has five wholly-owned subsidiaries namely
Axis Securities and Sales Ltd, Axis Private Equity Ltd,
Axis Trustee Services Ltd, Axis Asset Management
Company Ltd and Axis Mutual Fund Trustee Ltd.
Trading Multiples
Investment Thesis Aided by health 19% growth in NII, Q4FY14 earnings
stood at Rs 1842 cr, an upside of 18.5% YoY.
Stress addition of Rs 1416 cr within the guidance of Rs
1500 cr by the bank. GNPA of bank steady at 1-1.2% in
past many years. Provision coverage ratio of 78% is
impressive.
Advances growth was slightly above estimate at 16.8%
YoY to | 230667 crore. Loan growth CAGR has been
whopping 34% in past 8 years, well above the industry
average of 19%.
CASA ratio improved 240 bps QoQ to 45% driven by
SA balances.
NIMs improved 18 bps QoQ to 3.89%. NIM is expected
to remain above 3.5% over FY14-16E.
Contingent liabilities have lagged balance sheet
growth for last 3 years.
Key Risks Poor health of Indian economy is detrimental for
growth of banks and a lot depends on recovery in
coming years.
Banks are relying a lot on interest rate cut by RBI by
this year end. No rate cut this year would result in
poor projections.
High exposure to non operational power projects
possess a potential risk for Axis Bank in future. Only
one-third of power portfolios of bank are operational
at this stage.
Quarterly Result
Share Price Movement
Stock performance (%)
1m 6m 12m
Stock 1.6 56.7 41.1
Nifty (1.2) 17.9 23.6
Axis Bank CMP Rs. 1965
Target
Rs. 2024
Rating
Buy
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
1,500
1,700
1,900
2,100
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
7,500
8,000
Jul-
13
Au
g-1
3
Sep
-13
Oct
-13
No
v-1
3
De
c-1
3
Jan
-14
Feb
-14
Ma
r-1
4
Ap
r-1
4
Ma
y-1
4
Jun
-14
A
x
i
s
B
a
n
k
N
i
f
t
y
Nifty Axis Bank
YE Mar (Values in Rs Cr) Q4FY13 Q4FY14 % YoY
Net Int Income 2664 3166 18.8%
Non- Interest Income 2007 2213 10.3%
Operating Expenses 1872 2131 13.8%
Provisions 595 505 -15.1%
PBT 2204 2742 24.4%
Tax 649 900 38.7%
PAT 1555 1842 18.5%
EPS 34 39 13.4%
12 The XLRI Student Fund
Financial Summary CMP Rs. 1965
Target
Rs.xxx
Rating
Hold Rs. 2024
Income Statement
Ratio Analysis
Balance Sheet
Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
Gross Non-Performing Assets (Rs. Cr) 1599 1806 2393 3146
Net Non Performing Assets (Rs. Cr) 410 473 704 1025
% of Net Non-Performing Assets to Net Advance 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4
Capital Adequacy Ratio (%) 12.7 13.7 17 17
Tier I Capital (%) 9.4 9.5 12.2 12.6
Tier II Capital (%) 3.2 4.2 4.8 4.9
Interest Income % Average Working Fund 7.5 8.7 8.9 8.8
Non Interest Income % Average Working Fund 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1
Operating Profit % Average Working Fund 3.2 2.9 3.1 3.3
Return on Assets (%) 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8
Business Per Employee (Rs. Cr) 13.7 12.8 12.2 12.3
Profit Per Employee (Rs. Cr) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2
Rs in Cr Mar 11 Mar 12 Mar 13 Mar 14
SOURCES OF FUNDS :
Capital 411 413 468 470
Reserves Total 18484 22269 32690 37926
Minority Interest 0 0 13 13
Deposits 189166 219988 252149 280541
Borrowings 26268 34072 44105 52739
Other Liabilities & Provisions 8270 8699 11159 14704
TOTAL LIABILITIES 234329 276741 329425 371689
APPLICATION OF FUNDS :
Cash & Balances with RBI 13886 10703 14792 17041
Balances with Banks & money at Call 7522 3231 5708 11541
Investments 71788 92921 113378 113093
Advances 142408 169760 196990 232382
Fixed Assets 2293 2284 2387 2447
Other Assets 4702 6540 7328 9890
TOTAL ASSETS 242599 285440 340584 386394
Rs in Cr Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
Interest Earned 15155 21995 27202 30736
Other Income 4671 5487 6833 7766
Interest expended 8589 13969 17513 18703
Payments to/Provisions for Employees 1746 2254 2675 2973
Operating Expenses & Administrative Expenses 1675 1906 2161 2315
Depreciation 294 348 359 375
Other Expenses, Provisions & Contingencies 2426 2734 3702 4657
Provision for Tax 1958 2262 2741 3533
Deferred Tax -205 -211 -350 -363
Adjusted Net Profit 3344 4208 5238 6319
Equity Dividend (%) 140 160 180 200
Date Jul 12, 2014
Market cap INR 284 bn
52 wk L-H INR 318/587
P/E 18.2x
RoE (%) 17.3
Shareholding pattern (Jul 12, 2014)
Promoter 15.2%
Institutions 52.1 %
Others 32.7 %
Company overview IndusInd Bank is one of the leading banks among the
new generation Indian Banks.
According to the bank, its name is derived from the
rich and vivid Indus Valley Civilisation.
IndusInd Bank Ltd was incorporated in the year 1994
and was promoted by Mr Srichand P Hinduja, a leading
Non-Resident Indian businessman and head of the
Hinduja Group.
Mr. Romesh Sobti has joined the bank as Managing
Director & CEO
Trading Multiples
Investment Thesis PAT grew 29.8% in Q4FY14 to Rs 396 cr aide by strong
fee income growth.
GNPA stood at 1.1% while Net NPA remained at 0.3%
which is one of the best in the industry. With
slowdown in CV segment bottomed out, loan quality
should improve in coming years.
Driven by 28 bps drop in cost of funds, NIM improved
by 10bps to 3.75%.Bank is targeting NIM of 4% in next
2-3 years.
Fee income grew by 28% resulting in 24% growth in
advances. CASA ratio continues to rise with current
levels at 32.5% led by 41% growth in SA YoY.
Cost to core income continue to trend lower to 48.6%
v/s 50.6% in FY13 led by strong traction in core
income.
Key Risks High reliance on Forex income might hinder the
profitability in unfavorable scenarios.
Promoter holding of ~15% higher than norms set by
RBI and bank is required to reduced its promoter
holding in upcoming years.
High loan growth might lead to rising NPAs in the
future if economy continues to experience low growth
rate and high inflation.
Low CASA ratio compared to other top players might
risk the bank to poor investment climate more than
other big players.
Quarterly Result
Share Price Movement
Stock performance (%)
1m 6m 12m
Stock (0.1) 28.9 5.9
Nifty (1.2) 17.9 23.6
IndusInd Bank CMP Rs. 540
Target
Rs. 565
Rating
Hold
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
7,500
8,000
I
I
B
N
i
f
t
y
Nifty IndusInd Bank
YE Mar (Values in Rs Cr) Q4FY13 Q4FY14 % YoY
Net Int Income 661 781 18.2%
Non- Interest Income 368 523 42.1%
Operating Expenses 486 585 20.4%
Provisions 82 121 47.6%
PBT 462 599 29.7%
Tax 154 203 31.8%
PAT 307 396 29.0%
EPS 5.9 7.5 27.1%
14 The XLRI Student Fund
Financial Summary CMP Rs. 540
Target
Rs.xxx
Rating
Hold Rs. 565
Income Statement
Ratio Analysis
Balance Sheet
Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
Gross Non-Performing Assets (Rs. Cr) 266 347 458 621
Net Non Performing Assets (Rs. Cr) 73 95 137 184
% of Net Non-Performing Assets to Net Advance 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Capital Adequacy Ratio (%) 14.4 15.5 15.4 13.8
Tier I Capital (%) 11.1 11.2 13.8 12.7
Tier II Capital (%) 3.3 4.3 1.6 1.1
Interest Income % Average Working Fund 9.1 10.5 10.7 10.6
Non Interest Income % Average Working Fund 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.4
Operating Profit % Average Working Fund 2.7 2.7 2.8 3.3
Return on Assets (%) 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.8
Business Per Employee (Rs. Cr) 8.4 7.9 8.4 7.2
Profit Per Employee (Rs. Cr) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Year Mar 11 Mar 12 Mar 13 Mar 14
SOURCES OF FUNDS :
Capital 466 468 523 526
Reserves Total 3576 4263 7097 8506
Equity Application Money 8 11 11 11
Deposits 34365 42362 54117 60502
Borrowings 5525 8682 9460 14762
Other Liabilities & Provisions 1750 1887 2218 2882
TOTAL LIABILITIES 45691 57672 73425 87190
APPLICATION OF FUNDS :
Cash & Balances with RBI 2456 2904 3250 4414
Balances with Banks & money at Call 1569 2636 3599 2356
Investments 13551 14572 19654 21563
Advances 26166 35064 44321 55102
Fixed Assets 596 657 756 1016
Other Assets 1353 1840 1845 2739
TOTAL ASSETS 45691 57672 73425 87190
Rs in Cr Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
Interest Earned 3589 5359 6983 8254
Other Income 714 1012 1363 1891
Interest expended 2213 3655 4750 5363
Payments to/Provisions for Employees 383 485 661 809
Operating Expenses & Administrative Expenses 350 453 617 731
Depreciation 61 75 73 98
Other Expenses, Provisions & Contingencies 418 510 668 1015
Deferred Tax -25 -14 -8 -22
Reported Net Profit 577 803 1061 1408
Extraordinary Items -2 0 5 0
Adjusted Net Profit 579 802 1056 1408
Equity Dividend % 20 22 30 35
15 The XLRI Student Fund
Disclaimer
CAR - Capital Adequacy Ratio
NPA Non Performing Assets
CASA Current Account Saving Account
NIM Net Interest Margin
CD Ratio Loan to deposit ratio
RWA Risk Weighted Assets
Rating key
1 year return greater than 10% -Buy
1 year return between (5%) and 10% -Hold
1 year return less than (5%) - Sell
General disclaimer:
This report has been prepared by The XLRI Student Fund and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. The document at best represents the opinion of The XLRI Student Fund. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at, based upon information obtained in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation of warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. This document is for information purposes only. Descriptions of any company or companies or their securities mentioned herein are not intended to be complete and this document is not, and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments.