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1 Corporate Presentation Strong Asset Base Attractive Opportunities Prudent Financial Management TSX: NAE.un December 2009 Peter Imlay Associates ResourceOne Conference San Francisco, CA

Strong Asset Base Attractive Opportunities Prudent ... · 1 Corporate Presentation Strong Asset Base Attractive Opportunities Prudent Financial Management TSX: NAE.un December 2009

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Page 1: Strong Asset Base Attractive Opportunities Prudent ... · 1 Corporate Presentation Strong Asset Base Attractive Opportunities Prudent Financial Management TSX: NAE.un December 2009

1

Corporate PresentationStrong Asset Base

Attractive OpportunitiesPrudent Financial Management

TSX: NAE.un December 2009

Peter Imlay AssociatesResourceOne Conference San Francisco, CA

Page 2: Strong Asset Base Attractive Opportunities Prudent ... · 1 Corporate Presentation Strong Asset Base Attractive Opportunities Prudent Financial Management TSX: NAE.un December 2009

2

Disclaimers

Forward Looking Statements

This document contains statements that constitute “forward-looking information” or “forward-looking statements” (collectively “forward-looking information”) within the meaning of applicable securities legislation. This forward-looking information includes, among others, statements regarding: business plans for drilling, exploration and development; estimates of production and operations performance; forecasted commodity price estimates of future sales; estimated amounts and timing of capital expenditures; estimates of operating costs and unit operating costs; business strategy and plans or budgets; estimated timing and results of new development; and other expectations, beliefs, plans, goals, objectives, assumptions, information and statements about possible future events, conditions, results of operations or performance.

Various assumptions were used in drawing the conclusions or making the forecasts and projections contained in the forward-looking information contained in this presentation. Forward-looking information is based on current expectations, estimates and projections that involve a number of risks, which could cause actual results to vary and in some instances to differ materially from those anticipated by NAL and described in the forward-looking information contained in this document. Undue reliance should not be placed on forward-looking information. The material risk factors include, but are not limited to: the risks of the oil and gas industry, such as operational risks in exploring for, developing and producing oil and natural gas, market demand and unpredictable facilities outages; risks and uncertainties involving geology of oil and gas deposits; the uncertainty of estimates and projections relating to production, costs and expenses; potential delays or changes in plans with respect to exploration or development projects or capital expenditures; risk that adequate pipeline capacity to transport the natural gas to market may not be available; fluctuations in oil and gas prices, foreign currency exchange rates and interest rates; the outcome and effects of any future acquisitions and dispositions; safety and environmental risks; uncertainties as to the availability and cost of financing and changes in capital markets; competitive actions of other industry participants; changes in general economic and business conditions; the possibility that government policies or laws may change or governmentalapprovals may be delayed or withheld; changes in tax laws; changes in royalty rates; and the results of NAL’s risk mitigation strategies, including insurance; and NAL’s ability to implement its business strategy. Readers are cautioned that the foregoing list of risk factors is not exhaustive. Additional information on these and other factors which could affect NAL’s operations or financial results are included in NAL’s most recent Annual Information Form and Annual Financial Report. In addition, information is available in NAL’s other reports on file with Canadian securities regulatory authorities.

Forward-looking information is based on the estimates and opinions of NAL’s management at the time the information is released.

Boe Conversion

Throughout this press release, the calculation of barrels of oil equivalent (boe) is calculated at a conversion rate of six thousand cubic feet (mcf) of natural gas for one barrel (bbl) of oil and is based on an energy equivalence conversion method. Boes may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A boe conversion ratio of 6 mcf:1 bbl is based on an energy equivalence conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalence at the wellhead.

All dollar amounts in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.

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NAL Overview

TSX listed since 1996 NAE.UNPrice (Dec. 1, 2009) $12.77Units outstanding (MM) 112.3Market capitalization $1.4BEnterprise Value $1.8BMonthly distribution (per unit) $0.09Current yield 8.5%

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4

Fundamental Change and Repositioning

• Attracting new management / technical capability

• Adding resource focused assets and opportunities

• Exploiting low risk oil plays

• Positioning future gas prospects

• Maintaining financial capability / flexibility

• Completing value adding acquisitions

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Long-term Volume Growth

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

BO

E/D

Organic Acquisitions

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NAL Unit Ownership

Note: As at September 30, 2009

68%

Canadian

25%

U.S.

7% Other

39%Institutional

59%Retail

Consistent Foreign Ownership

Increasing Institutional Presence

Manulife owns < 2%

Institutional presence continues to increase through broader participation beyond Canada and the U.S.

6

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2009 Overview Nottingham Gas Plant

7

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Page 8

Breaker Energy Transaction Summary

• Breaker meets all of NAL’s key acquisition screening criteria:– Concentrated assets – 3 properties = 75% of value– 95% operated, high working interest (90%+)– Maintains ~ 50% gas /50% liquids balance– Low risk development profile adding more than 190

resource play locations– Accretive on cash flow, production, reserves and net

asset value on a per unit basis– Adds $270 million in tax pools

• Transaction metrics are competitive– $57,200/boe/d (6,800 boe/d) – $16.90 / P+P boe (23 MMboe – conservative estimate)

• Deal expected to close on or about Dec. 10, 2009

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Page 9

Breaker Assets Complementary to NAL

Source: GeoScout, NAL reports

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2009 Updated Full Year Guidance

Production (boe/d) 23,500 - 24,000

Capital Expenditures ($MM) 135

Wells Drilled (Gross/Net) 78 / 37

Operating Costs ($/boe) 11.30 – 11.60

Royalties (%)* 17.5 – 18.5

*Excluding New Alberta Incentive Program

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2009 - Delivering Strong Relative Performance

2009 OBJECTIVE PERFORMANCE

Deliver 2009 Guidance Strong H1/09 – increased guidance

Financial Flexibility

Live within cash flow Distribution linked to commodity prices ($0.09/month)

Payout + capital ratio is 105 - 110%

Renew $450MM bank line Completed mid-year review

Completed $86MM equity deal Solid institutional / retail support

Add Opportunities

Increase land holdings Purchased Cardium oil acreage

Target Acquisitions Alberta Clipper acquisitionCardium JV partnershipSpearpoint farm-in

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NAL Relative Performance YTD2009 To Date Total Return - Trust & Dividend Corp. Peers

84%74%72%

57%52%49%

43%41%37%35%34%31%30%

20%18%16%8% 7% 6% 4% 0%

105%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

A B C NAE.UND E F G H AverageI J K L M N O P Q R S T

Source: Bloomberg.Priced as at 01DEC09

12

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2009 Operating PlanSylvan Lake Horizontal Frac

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Concentrated Core Areas

14

Sylvan Lake, Alberta

Pine Creek, Alberta

Southeast Saskatchewan

Southeast Alberta

Monkman, B.C.

Trutch, B.C.

Beg, B.C.

• Year-round access• Volume 80% operated• Strong infrastructure position• Significant opportunity on developed land• Spearpoint adds 900,000 gross acres• Joint Venture adds 100,000 gross acres

Current Estimated Acreage (000’s)

Developed

Gross Net

1,231 452Undeveloped

Gross Net

1,242 419

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2009 Q4 Operational Focus

• 8 (6 net) Cardium horizontal oil wells using multistage fracs in AB

• 11 (5 net) horizontal Mississippian oil wells in SE Sask

• $35 million in Q4/09 capital budget to capture opportunities andmaximize incentive impacts

• Exploration drilling 10% of full year program

• Have catalogued an inventory of approximately 1,200 multi-zone deep and shallow gas/oil prospects that will continue to build with the recent announcement of Breaker Energy

• 24 geoscientists including geologists, geophysicists, Geo-techs working the extensive land base that the Trust may access with recent deals

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2009E Production Balanced

Crude Oil NGL Natural Gas

48%

68.5 Mmcf/d

44%

10,200 bbl/d

1,900 bbl/dSaskatchewan BCOntario Alberta

2%

11%

35%

52%

Note: Based on mid-point of full year guidance of 23,500 boe/d.

8%

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2009E Capital Allocation By Area

($MM)

Sylvan Lake 60

Saskatchewan 25

Alberta Other 30

NEBC & Non-Op 12

Plant & Facilities 4

Land & Seismic 4

Total 135

Maximum flexibility - 90% of capital program operated

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SE Saskatchewan – Broadening Our Horizons

• Focus on Mississippian oil reservoirs using 3D seismic& Hz drilling

• 11(5 net) wells in Q4 2009

• 80+ sections of Bakken lands –evaluating options

• Nottingham gas plant expansion: late ‘09 start up

7 wells3 wells

1 well

8 wells

3 wells

14,000+ boe/d of managed production with significant operating infrastructure

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Horizontal Cardium Oil Play

Parameters

• 2,000 meters TVD – 1,000 meter Hz

• Reserves/well: - 150 – 200 Mboe

• Capital/well ($MM) – 3.2 DCT

• Capital efficiency: $15-$20/boe

• Light sweet oil – no water

• Spacing 2 to 4 wells per section

• NPV BT15 at $2.0-$2.8 million per well

• Includes AB Royalty Incentive at 5% rate in year one

• Excludes AB drilling incentive of $600,000/well

• Compared to vertical wells:

• 2x the capital delivers 3-4x production and reserves

A Sand

B Sand

• Shoreface Bar

• 3 to 6 m clean sand

• Conglomerate lag

• Thinner

• More chert

• Higher perm

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• 150 gross (100 net) sections of Cardium oil prospective acreage

• Garrington area resource well understood through vertical delineation

• Cochrane trend well mapped with lower vertical well density

• Pine Creek Cardium is a combination of low risk offsets and trend mapping

Potential Gross Locations (~65% WI):

• Existing NAL acreage in Garrington and Pine Creek – 150 locations

• JV Partnership Agreement at Cochrane– 50 locations

• Spearpoint acreage in Garrington and Pine Creek– 75 locations

Horizontal Cardium Oil Running Room

Hz Drilling Rig North of Cochrane, AB

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Garrington – Horizontal Cardium Performance

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12Months On Production

Prod

uctio

n (b

oe/d

)

Avg Of Actuals To Date

Original Hz Forecast

Typical Vertical Well

10# of Wells 8 5 5 5 5 3 3 3 25

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Sylvan Lake – Focus Area For 2009

• Cardium in-fill of existing pools and extensions –200 future locations

• Existing infrastructure is being upgraded to accommodate increased throughput

• Significant stacked gas opportunities in the Mannville being evaluated

Cardium Hz

2009 Drills

2008 Drills

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Pine Creek – Extending the Cardium Play

Cardium oil/gas

Other – gas

8-22 Cardium Hz – 100% WI- 500m section good gas and oil shows- first month production 630 boe/d

• Spearpoint land adds significant trend acreage to the existing Cardium play

• Multi-zone gas opportunities have significant option value

• Gathering and processing capacity is available through NAL facilities and third party systems

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• Hz Cardium oil

• Mississippian/Bakken/Tilston oil

• Mannville stacked gas

• BC gas in Sukunka, Trutch, Beg

• Shallow gas / CBM

24

• Increasing opportunities in all core areas

• Broadening use of technology in tight reservoirs

• Balanced risk profile

• 1,200+ prospects identified to date -growing significantly with the Spearpointfarm-in

Diversified Portfolio of Potential Opportunities

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25

Financial Information

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2009 Financial Assumptions

Base Case*

WTI ($US/bbl) 78.00

AECO ($C/GJ) 4.40

FX (CAD/US) 1.05

Bank Interest Rate (%) 4.00

* In all cases, forecasts are based on year-to-date actual prices as at Oct. 31, 2009 and the presented flat forecast pricing for the remaining two months in 2009.

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2009 Financial Forecast

Base Case

Funds From Operations ($MM) 230

Distributions ($MM)* 120

Capital Expenditures ($MM)** 131

FFO ($ per unit) 2.15

Distributions ($ per unit) 1.12

Basic Payout Ratio (%) 52

Payout with Capital (%) 108

Payout with Capital & DRIP (%) 103

* Assumes monthly distribution of $0.09 per unit effective March 2009.

** Assumes recovery of $4 million for Alberta Royalty Drilling Credit.

*** All figures exclude impact of Breaker Energy transaction.

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2009 Balance Sheet Forecast

Base Case*

Net Bank Debt at Year-end ($MM) 165

Convertibles at Year-end ($MM) 195

Total Debt at Year-end ($MM) 360

Net Debt/Cash Flow (x) 0.7

Total Debt/Cash Flow (x) 1.6

* All figures exclude impact of Breaker Energy transaction.

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Strong Balance Sheet - Available Credit Lines

Committed Bank Lines $450 MM

Bank Debt as at Nov. 30, 2009 $133 MM

Available Credit $317 MM

Convertible Subordinated Debentures $195 MM

* All figures exclude impact of Breaker Energy transaction.

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2009 Hedging Program Contributing Value

• Board approval – up to 60% of net production• Counterparties – all Canadian Chartered banks• Crude oil hedges:

– 38% of 2010 oil volumes hedged– 20% with swaps – average floor of ~$US83.80/bbl

– 80% with collars – average floor of ~$US64.50/bbl

– average ceiling of ~$US76.30/bbl

• Natural gas hedges:– 43% of 2010 – floor C$6.00/Mcf AECO

• Interest rates – locking in low rates (3–5 years)• Currency - hedged Cdn $ at $1.22 U.S. for Q4/09

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Future DirectionSylvan Lake Horizontal Frac

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Fundamental Change At NAL

Year-end 2006 March 31, 2009

People: Senior Managers 10 12 – 75% New

Growth:

Volume (boe/d) 19,444 23,984

P+P reserves (MMboe) 58.2 77.4

Reserve Life Index (years) 8.5 8.8

Organic Reserves Replacement 25% 116%

Tax Pools ($MM) 494 954

Opportunities:

Net developed & undeveloped land (‘000 acres) 393 871

Exploration Capital 0% 10%-15%

Technical focus

Typical trust model – buy and exploit

Toward an E&P model – develop internal

growth opportunities/resource plays

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Toward 2011 – A Yield Oriented Entity

• Add size/opportunities in 2009 – 2010

• Safe harbour available - $967MM

• Capture ongoing investor demand for yield

• Retain competitive payout with dividends

• Maintain financial capability/flexibility

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Why is NAL Attractively Positioned to Add Value?

• Positive operating / financial performance

• Extensive Cardium oil resource play in Alberta

• Solid Mississippian oil business in S.E. Sask

• Significant gas upside potential in portfolio

• Positioned to maximize value from Government royalty programs

• Strong balance sheet / available lines / hedging

• Momentum through recently completed transactions

• Credible team and financial partner

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35NAE.UN - TSX

Nottingham Gas Plant

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36

Appendix

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Summary of Transactions YTD

Alberta Clipper• Corporate deal - $115 million, 3,100 boe/d, 8.6 MM P+P

Reserves, 65% gas (Trust 50%) – closed June 1

Cardium JV Partnership Agreement• Exclusive agreement with a senior player to

access 150+ sections of land in central Alberta

• 3 year/$50 million minimum commitment (65% Trust)

Spearpoint Energy• Exclusive agreement with a senior player to access 1,400 sections

of land in Alberta

• Targeting the Cardium in Garrington and Pine Creek - adds 70 horizontal oil opportunities – 5 Hz wells planned for H2/09

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Experienced Management Team

Andrew WiswellPresident & CEO

Keith SteevesVP Finance & CFO

Marlon McDougallVP Ops & COO

John KanikDirector, Marketing

Tracy WoodController

Jim Van CampSaskatchewan BU

Lance BergSylvan Lake BU

Brent GrebinskiAlberta BU

Tim BrandenborgNon-Operated BU

John KoyanagiVP Business Dev.

Clayton ParadisManager, IR

David AllenDirector, E&P

Alex TworoMgr. A&D Geology

Deric OrtonDirector, Land

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Strategic Partnership with Manulife

Manulife

• Direct oil & gas investor since 1990

• Long term investment horizon

• Desire to increase investment with Trust

Terms of Agreement:

• Calgary management runs business

• No management or acquisition fees

• Shared G&A costs

• Independently controlled Trust board

• Long term contract - 90 day trust exit option

Benefits:

• Broader technical/financial capability

• Capital market view & investment discipline

• Financial partner in transactions

NAL Resources Management

(manages 41,000 boe/d)

80% of assets are common80% are operated

Trust

24,000

boe/d

Manulife

17,000

boe/d

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Stable RLI

• McDaniels independently evaluated reserves • Conservatively booked reserves• Consistent P+P RLI of 8 to 9 years

Source: Company Reports

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

RLI

(yea

rs)

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2009 Sensitivities on FFO

Impact on FFO

($MM) $/unit

WTI ($US/bbl) $5.00 10.4 0.10

AECO ($C/GJ) $0.50 7.3 0.07

FX (CAD/US) $0.01 1.3 0.01

Prime Rate 1.0% 1.6 0.02

Production (bbl/d) 100 0.9 0.01

Production (mmcf/d) 1 0.4 <0.01

Note: Excludes impact of hedge contracts. Also, as pricing moves further from base case pricing, the sensitivity relationships weaken.

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Current Tax Pools

$ MM

Canadian Exploration Expense 44

Canadian Development Expense 243

Canadian Oil & Gas Property Expense 340

Undepreciated Capital Costs 216

Other (including loss carry forwards) 93

Total 936

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Broadened Bank Syndicate

Credit Available ($MM)

Bank of Montreal* 145

Royal Bank of Canada 105

CIBC 75

Bank of Nova Scotia 75

Alberta Treasury Branch** 25

Union Bank of California** 25

*Includes $10 million of working capital facility**Includes new capacity added in 2008

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Crude Oil Hedge PositionsCrude Oil Hedge Contracts as at 11/04/2009

Q4-09 Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 Q4-10

US$ Collar Contracts

$US WTI Collar Volume (b/d) 300 3,700 3,500 2,600 2,400

Bought Puts – Average Strike Price ($US/bbl)

$62.67 $62.51 $62.94 $64.90 $65.10

Sold Calls – Average Strike Price ($US/bbl)

$71.85 $73.61 $73.96 $76.42 $76.88

US$ Swap Contracts

$US WTI Swap Volume (b/d) 1,700 700 1,200

Average WTI Swap Price ($US/bbl) $61.94 $75.36 $75.67

Cdn$ Collar Contracts

$Cdn WTI Collar Volume (b/d) 1,500 300

Bought Puts – Average Strike Price ($Cdn/bbl)

$102.07 $66.00

Sold Calls – Average Strike Price ($Cdn/bbl)

$137.63 $80.17

Cdn$ Swap Contracts

$Cdn WTI Swap Volume (b/d) 1,300

Average WTI Swap Price ($Cdn/bbl) $92.55

Total Volume (b/d) 4,800 4,700 4,700 2,600 2,400

Note: All counterparties are Canadian banks in our syndicate.

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45

Natural Gas Hedge Positions

Natural Gas Hedge Contracts as at 11/04/2009

Q4-09 Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 Q4-10

Collar Contracts

AECO Collar Volume (GJ/d) 1,685

Bought Puts – AECO Average Strike Price ($Cdn/GJ)

$8.90

Sold Calls – AECO Average Strike Price ($Cdn/GJ)

$11.44

Swap Contracts

AECO Swap Volume (GJ/d) 32,663 30,000 30,000 31,000 14,337

AECO Average Price ($Cdn/GJ) $5.57 $8.86 $5.60 $5.62 5.67

Total Volume (GJ/d) 34,348 30,000 30,000 31,000 14,337

Note: All counterparties are Canadian banks in our syndicate.

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Interest Rate Hedge Positions

Financial Interest Rate Contracts as at 08/06/2009

Swap Contracts Notional (Cdn $MM)

Term (years)

Floating Rate(Receive)

Fixed Rate (Pay)

December 23, 2008 39 3 CAD-BA-CDOR 3 month 1.5864%

January 30, 2009 22 4 CAD-BA-CDOR 3 month 1.3850%

January 30, 2009 22 5 CAD-BA-CDOR 3 month 1.5100%

March 5, 2010 14 3 CAD-BA-CDOR 3 month 1.8750%

March 5, 2010 14 4 CAD-BA-CDOR 3 month 1.9850%

March 19, 2010 14 3 CAD-BA-CDOR 3 month 1.8500%

March 30, 2010 14 4 CAD-BA-CDOR 3 month 1.9300%

Total Notional (Cdn $) 139

Note: All counterparties are Canadian banks in our syndicate.

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47

Foreign Exchange Hedge Positions

Foreign Exchange Contracts as at 11/04/2009

Term Notional Per Month (US $MM)

Exchange Rate (USD to CAD)

01OCT09 – 30NOV09 6 1.2743%

01DEC09 – 31DEC09 5.5 1.1134%

01JAN10 – 31DEC10 4.5 1.1206%

Note: All counterparties are Canadian banks in our syndicate.

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Exceptional Relative Valuation2010E EV/DACF

Source: CIBC WM – priced as at 03DEC09

2.0x

3.0x

4.0x

5.0x

6.0x

7.0x

8.0x

9.0xA B C D

NAE

.UN E F G H I

Ave

rage J K L

EV/D

ACF

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49

Sell-side Research

Market PerformFirstEnergy CapitalJill T. Angevine

OutperformMacquarie CapitalLeon Knight

BuyTD SecuritiesGreg Shaw

Analyst Firm Recommendation

Gordon Tait BMO Capital Markets Restricted

Kyle Preston CanaccordAdams Buy

Robert Pare CIBC World Markets Outperform

Menal Patel National Bank Financial Restricted

Jeff Martin Peters & Co. Sector Outperform

Kristopher Zack Raymond James Outperform

Fergal Kelly RBC Capital Markets Outperform

Jeremy Kaliel Scotia Capital Sector Outperform

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50

Corporate Information

MANAGEMENT

Andrew Wiswell President & CEO

Keith Steeves VP Finance & CFO

Marlon McDougall VP Operations & COO

John Koyanagi VP Business Development

INVESTOR RELATIONS

Clayton Paradis Manager, Investor Relations

Local: (403) 294-3620Toll-free: (888) 223.8792E-mail:[email protected]

TRUSTEE AND TRANSFER AGENT

Computershare Trust Company of Canada

AUDITOR

KPMG

ENGINEERING CONSULTANTS

McDaniel & Associates

LEGAL COUNSEL

Bennett Jones

STOCK EXCHANGE LISTING & SYMBOL

Toronto Stock Exchange NAE.UN

EXECUTIVE OFFICE1000 – 550 6th Avenue SW, Calgary, Alberta, T2P 0S2

Website: www.nal.ca