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FOR INSTITUTIONAL AND PROFESSIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY/NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION
GR
A17
JB
Attractive asset characteristics for insurers
1
Yield
Protection from rising rates
Diversification
Long-term liability matching
Low volatility of returns
FOR INSTITUTIONAL AND PROFESSIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY/NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION
GR
A17
JB
Basel III
2
Source: SwissTraveling.com
FOR INSTITUTIONAL AND PROFESSIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY/NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION
GR
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JB
Loans to small companies and infrastructure projects
Small/Medium-Sized Company Loans
Infrastructure Loans
Yield 10-11% 4.75% Floating rate Yes Yes Position in capital structure Senior secured Senior secured Average duration of loan 2 years 12 years Credit rating BB/B equivalent A-
3
Source: Representative characteristics based on loans observable in the market, JP Morgan Asset Management December 2012
FOR INSTITUTIONAL AND PROFESSIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY/NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION
GR
A17
JB
INFRASTRUCTURE LOANS
4
FOR INSTITUTIONAL AND PROFESSIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY/NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION
GR
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Loans to projects which represent the essential building blocks of society
5
Education Primary school serving favorable demographic Availability payments based on maintaining facilities in good working condition
Road Essential transportation artery for important community Unitary payments based on maintaining highway availability and elimination of congestion
Housing
Elderly housing in space-constrained market Availability payments based on maintaining site availability
Energy distribution Meter installation and servicing contract Contracts with monopoly utilities through life of loans
Healthcare facility
Core UK infrastructure Unitary payment based on maintaining facility to specific standards
Street lighting Street lighting installation and maintenance Payments from government based on installation milestones and availability thereafter
FOR INSTITUTIONAL AND PROFESSIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY/NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION
GR
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JB
Seasoned senior secured infrastructure loans
n Senior secured infrastructure loans offer attractive risk-adjusted returns – A rated credit characteristics with yields at BBB / BB spread levels – Avoid the risky “build” phase of a project
n Weak bank balance sheets and increasingly stringent capital requirements for long dated infrastructure loans have created an opportunity for insurance companies
6
Images for illustrative purposes only
FOR INSTITUTIONAL AND PROFESSIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY/NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION
GR
A17
JB
Credit spreads have risen and are sustainable around 250 to 300 bps
7
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Bas
is P
oint
s
Margins over LIBOR for long term (7+ years) infrastructure project finance debt, 6-month rolling average
Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management estimate; Dealogic; New Issues only
Bas
el II
Pub
lishe
d
U.S
. Ado
pted
B
asel
II
Fina
l Pac
kage
Bas
el II
Pu
blis
hed
Fina
l Tex
t of B
asel
III
Fram
ewor
k Pu
blis
hed
FOR INSTITUTIONAL AND PROFESSIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY/NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION
GR
A17
JB
Spreads for infrastructure debt are generally between BB and BBB quality corporate debt
8
Source: Barclays Capital; Dealogic; J.P. Morgan Asset Management estimate, 4Q 2012
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Jan-
00
May
-00
Sep
-00
Jan-
01
May
-01
Sep
-01
Jan-
02
May
-02
Sep
-02
Jan-
03
May
-03
Sep
-03
Jan-
04
May
-04
Sep
-04
Jan-
05
May
-05
Sep
-05
Jan-
06
May
-06
Sep
-06
Jan-
07
May
-07
Sep
-07
Jan-
08
May
-08
Sep
-08
Jan-
09
May
-09
Sep
-09
Jan-
10
May
-10
Sep
-10
Jan-
11
May
-11
Sep
-11
Jan-
12
May
-12
Sep
-12
Bas
is P
oint
s
A BBB BB Infrastructure
Margins over LIBOR for long term (7+ years) global corporate bonds and new issue infrastructure project finance debt
FOR INSTITUTIONAL AND PROFESSIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY/NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION
GR
A17
JB
Project finance default rates have been relatively low
n Infrastructure default rates are comparable to BBB rated corporate debt
n Project finance debt exhibits a declining annual default rate
9
Cumulative default rates for the period 1990–2010, broken down by industry
Source: Moody’s Special Report, Default and Recovery Rates for Project Finance Bank Loans, 1983–2010, January 31, 2012. The above chart is shown for illustrative purposes only . Past outcomes are not indicative of future outcomes.
0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00%
10.00% 12.00% 14.00%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Cum
ulat
ive
defa
ult r
ate
Years from issue
Infrastructure Manufacturing Media & Telecom Metals & Mining Oil & Gas Power Average Moody's Baa (or BBB equivalent) Moody's Ba (or BB equivalent)
Annual default rate from year 5
0.00%
0.10%
0.20%
0.30%
0.40%
0.50%
0.60%
0.70%
5 6 7 8 9 10
Ann
ual d
efau
lt ra
te
Infrastructure
Moody's Baa (or BBB equivalent)
FOR INSTITUTIONAL AND PROFESSIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY/NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION
GR
A17
JB
Recovery rates have been high
n In default, senior infrastructure PPP/PFI debt has had excellent average recoveries of approximately 90%
n Infrastructure PPP/PFIs, which represent over 50% of the infrastructure debt market, exhibit median recovery rates exceeding 97%
n Prudent selection of projects enhances recovery rates
10
Average
Median
Infrastructure 80% 93%
PPP/PFI 88% 95%
Infrastructure PPP/PFI 90% 97%
Senior Secured Corporate Debt 62% 72%
Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management estimate; 2001–2009 cumulative recovery rates, S&P Loss Stats Database. The above table is shown for illustrative purposes only . Past outcomes are not indicative of future outcomes. “”PPP” is “Public private partnership” and “PFI” is “Private finance initiative”
Infrastructure Infrastructure PPP/PFI
PPP/ PFI
Recovery rates
FOR INSTITUTIONAL AND PROFESSIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY/NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION
GR
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JB
Credit losses approximate A-rated corporate bonds
11
Average 5-yr cumulative credit loss rates for global corporate bonds and new issue infrastructure project finance debt
49 56
119
0
100
200
300
A Infrastructure Baa Ba
Bas
is p
oint
s
690
Sources: Moody’s and J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Based on average cumulative default rates and recovery rates between 1982 and 2010 as reported by Moody’s in Special Report, Corporate Default and Recovery Rates, 1920-2010, Feb 28, 2011. The above chart is shown for illustrative purposes only . Past outcomes are not indicative of future outcomes.
FOR INSTITUTIONAL AND PROFESSIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY/NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION
GR
A17
JB
Portfolio purchased at a price that yields more than 300 bps above LIBOR
12
Education 17%
Energy distribution
10%
Energy from waste plant
9% Hospital
9%
Road 16%
Stadium 12%
University accomodation
18%
Waste treatment
plant 9%
Credit Asset type CountryGBP par amount
purchased Legal maturity
Loan 1 Road England 19,746,338 03-31-36Loan 2 Waste treatment plant England 20,000,000 03-31-34Loan 3 Education N. Ireland 20,000,000 03-31-35Loan 4 Hospital England 20,000,000 06-30-35Loan 5 Education N. Ireland 16,405,950 05-31-35Loan 6 Energy distribution England 10,535,696 12-31-23Loan 7 Energy distribution England 11,474,592 11-30-23Loan 8 Energy from waste plant England 20,000,000 09-30-30Loan 9 Road England 15,111,031 09-30-32Loan 10 University accomodation England 20,000,000 08-31-39Loan 11 University accomodation England 20,000,000 08-31-39Loan 12 Stadium England 25,140,366 09-30-23
Total 218,413,972
-
200
400
600
800
-
10
20
30
40
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040 Cum
ulat
ive
amou
nts
GB
P m
illio
ns
Ann
ual a
mou
nts
GB
P m
illio
ns
Portfolio principal and interest payments
Principal repayment (annual) Loan margin interest (annual)
Libor interest (annual)* Cumulative principal and interest
*Forward Libor curve as of August 2012. Source: JPMAM representative transaction from 2012. The above data is shown for illustrative purposes only . Past outcomes are not indicative of future outcomes.
FOR INSTITUTIONAL AND PROFESSIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY/NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION
GR
A17
JB
Infrastructure loans purchased on behalf of investors: A UK tranche as part of a $1.5 billion investment program
13
Education (2) Regional colleges serving favorable demographics Availability payments based on maintaining facilities in good working condition
Roads (2) Essential transportation arteries for important metropolises Unitary payments based on maintaining highway availability and elimination of congestion
University accommodation (2) University accommodation at two leading UK universities Availability payments based on maintaining accommodation to specific standards
Energy distribution (2) Meter installation and servicing contract Contracts with monopoly utilities through life of loans
Waste plants (2) Waste treatment facility and energy from waste plant in fast-growing regions Plants have deliver-or-pay contracts with local authorities through life of loans
Stadium (1) Unique, world-class sports stadium Long-term staging contracts with sports authorities and long-term revenue contracts with seat and box holders
Hospital (1) Leading hospital in space-constrained market Unitary payment based on maintaining hospital availability
FOR INSTITUTIONAL AND PROFESSIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY/NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION
GR
A17
JB
SME LOANS
14
FOR INSTITUTIONAL AND PROFESSIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY/NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION
GR
A17
JB
Small/mid-sized companies have significant refinancing needs
15
Source: JP Morgan Asset Management 2012
Maturity Schedule of Small/Mid-Cap vs. Large Cap (% of outstanding)
4.6%
10.5%
15.7% 15.4%
18.1%
15.5%
9.1%
5.2% 6.0%
2.4% 4.7%
12.2% 10.9%
15.3% 16.0% 15.2%
6.2%
17.2%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 or later
$300 million or less more than $300 million
FOR INSTITUTIONAL AND PROFESSIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY/NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION
GR
A17
JB
Pricing of opportunities is attractive on absolute and relative basis
16
** Net Leverage Ratio = (Debt through the relevant tranche, less cash) / EBITDA. *** Net Loan-to-Value through the relevant tranche. 1 Source: LCD’s Leveraged Lending Review – 3Q12 (B+/B Institutional Loans – Quarterly). 2 Source: LCD’s Leveraged Lending Review – 3Q12. 3 Source: CS High Yield Index as of 9/28/12. 4 Indicative terms based on current portfolio. Opinions, estimates, forecasts, and statements of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice.
n Current returns for middle market direct lending remain attractive in both absolute terms and on a risk-adjusted basis
– Unlevered yields generally in the 9 -13%+ range, including LIBOR floors and origination fees
– Typical security leverage of 3-4x Debt/EBITDA* and loan-to-value of 30-50%***
n Pricing dynamics should remain attractive in the medium term, with a growing opportunity in the European market
n Multiple opportunities with companies in attractive sectors such as Industrials & Business Services, Consumer Goods and Services, Technology, and Healthcare
Indicative Pricing vs. the Public Market
Leveraged Loans
High Yield Bonds
Direct Lending4
Spread L+4.5%¹ 8.1%³ L+7.5%-9.5%
LIBOR Floor 0.8%¹ 0.0%³ 1.25%-1.75%
Yield from Discount/Fees (OID) 0.9%² 1.3%³ 3.0%
FOR INSTITUTIONAL AND PROFESSIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY/NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION
GR
A17
JB
Loans to small companies and infrastructure projects
Small/Medium-Sized Company Loans
Infrastructure Loans
Yield 10-11% 4.75% Floating rate Yes Yes Position in capital structure Senior secured Senior secured Average duration of loan 2 years 12 years Credit rating BB/B equivalent A-
17
Source: Representative characteristics based on loans observable in the market, JP Morgan Asset Management December 2012
FOR INSTITUTIONAL AND PROFESSIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY/NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION
GR
A17
JB
18
This document is intended solely to report on various investment views held by J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Opinions, estimates, forecasts, and statements of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. We believe the information provided here is reliable but should not be assumed to be accurate or complete. The views and strategies described may not be suitable for all investors. References to specific securities, asset classes and financial markets are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations. Indices do not include fees or operating expenses and are not available for actual investment. The information contained herein employs proprietary projections of expected returns as well as estimates of their future volatility. The relative relationships and forecasts contained herein are based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical data and capital markets theory. These estimates have certain inherent limitations, and unlike an actual performance record, they do not reflect actual trading, liquidity constraints, fees or other costs. References to future net returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. The forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.
Real estate, infrastructure and hedge fund investing may be subject to a higher degree of market risk because of concentration in a specific industry, sector or geographical sector. Real estate, infrastructure and hedge fund investing may be subject to risks including, but not limited to, declines in the value of real estate, risks related to general and economic conditions, changes in the value of the underlying property owned by the trust and defaults by borrower.
The value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate and your investment is not guaranteed. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please note current performance may be higher or lower than the performance data shown. Please note that investments in foreign markets are subject to special currency, political, and economic risks. Exchange rates may cause the value of underlying overseas investments to go down or up. Investments in emerging markets may be more volatile than other markets and the risk to your capital is therefore greater. Also, the economic and political situations may be more volatile than in established economies and these may adversely influence the value of investments made.
All case studies are shown for illustrative purposes only and should not be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. They are based on current market conditions that constitute our judgment and are subject to change. Results shown are not meant to be representative of actual investment results. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of the likely future performance of an investment. Any securities mentioned throughout the presentation are shown for illustrative purposes only and should not be interpreted as recommendations to buy or sell. A full list of firm recommendations for the past year is available upon request.
Notice to U.K. residents: This document is only directed to persons believed by JPMorgan Asset Management (U.K.) Limited to be investment professionals as defined in Article 19 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, high net worth companies, unincorporated associations and other persons as defined in Article 49 of that Order and to others to whom it can lawfully be distributed or given, inside the United Kingdom, without approval by an authorised person. Persons who do not have professional experience in matters relating to investments should not rely on it and any other person should not act on such information.
This document is issued in the U.K. by JPMorgan Asset Management (U.K.) Limited and has been approved solely for the purposes of section 21(2)(b) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by JPMorgan Asset Management (U.K.) Limited which is authorised and regulated in the U.K. by the Financial Services Authority. Registered in England No. 01161446. Registered address: 125 London Wall, London EC2Y 5AY.
J.P. Morgan Asset Management