Stressed by Strife: ASEAN from Pattaya to Preah Vihear

Dr. Thitinan Pongsudhirak

Associate Professor and Director Institute of Security and Int’l Studies

Faculty of Political Science

Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok

Visiting Scholar, CDDRL-Humanities Center, 26 April 2010

Presentation outline

1. Southeast Asia as a region

2. Southeast Asia as an organization

3. Domestic strife and regional effects

4. Premises and prospects

1. Southeast Asia as A Region1.1 Comparative politics of Southeast Asia 570 million people (ASEAN Sec figure);

GDP: $1.5trn 11 countries (ASEAN + East Timor) All post-colonial, except Siam/Thailand Multi-ethnic; multi-religious; multi-lingual All influenced by overseas Chinese All affected by Japan’s Co-Prosperity

Sphere in WWII Postwar independence movements and

interstate conflicts in the region

1. Southeast Asia as A Region (cont.)

1.2 Diverse and disparate regime types Absolute monarchy: Brunei Constitutional monarchy: Cambodia,

Malaysia (federal), Thailand Socialist: Laos and Vietnam Military authoritarian: Burma/Myanmar Republic: Indonesia, Philippines,

Singapore, (East Timor)

1. Southeast Asia as A Region (cont.)1.3 Vibrant economic development tamed tigers?; formerly ASEAN Four; Asian

Values?; East Asian Miracle 1997-98 economic crisis; recovery and new

trajectory1.4 Political change and continuity: A mixed

bag of democratization and autocracy Indonesia/Malaysia/Philippines/Thailand/

Singapore/Cambodia Brunei/Laos/Vietnam/Burma-Myanmar1.5 Internal conflicts and insurgencies in

Indonesia, Philippines and Thailand

2. Southeast Asia as An Organization

2.1 International relations of Southeast Asia2.2 Evolution and development: Malphilindo; ASA; SEATO; ASEAN Why ASEAN?: Konfrontasi; major

powers/national development; ethnic and power balance

2.3 ASEAN as longest regional vehicle after 42 years; Cold War during 1967-87; economic exuberance in 1987-97; APEC (1989); AFTA (1992); ARF (1994)

2.4 No War in ASEAN; just border tensions and skirmishes

2. Southeast Asia as An Organization (cont.)

2.5 Expansion: Brunei (1984); Vietnam (1995); Laos and Burma/Myanmar (1997); Cambodia (1999)

2.6 Miracle-Meltdown; Chiang Mai Initiative (CMI) under ASEAN Plus Three (APT) from 1998

2.7 GWOT (2001-08); Second Front; Separatist insurgencies

2.8 ASEAN Charter (December 2008); legal entity; 3 pillars in APSC, AEC and ASCC; ASEAN Community by 2015

2. Southeast Asia as An Organization (cont.)

2.9 Underlying dynamics of charter: Maintaining relevance ASEAN charter as codification of

norms Non-interference with democratizing

principles (Article 1: 7) ASEAN Intergovernmental

Commission on Human Rights (AICOHR); People-centered ASEAN?

A personal encounter

3. Domestic strife and regional effects Perennial Burma/Myanmar albatross;

ASSK’s confinement; elections in 2010 Indonesia’s frustration Vietnam’s domestic concerns Cambodia’s posture Singapore’s imperative Malaysia’s growing polarization Philippines’ constraints Thailand’s nadir

3. Domestic strife and regional effects (cont.)

Thai crisis and Thai chairmanship of ASEAN in mid 2008-09; two years for 4th East Asia Summit (EAS)

From Pattaya to Preah Vihear Preah Vihear v. Phra Viharn Hun Sen-Thaksin and Hun Sen-Abhisit Thailand’s founding pillar to weakest

link (ASSK’s comment and 16th summit machinations in April 2010)

3. Domestic strife and regional effects (cont.)

ASEAN at 42; a midlife crossroads ASEAN Plus Three; China’s orbit East Asian Community; Japan’s timid

vision East Asia Summit (ASEAN+6) East Asia Summit Plus US and

Russia? Australia’s Asia-Pacific Community

3. Domestic strife and regional effects (cont.) APEC; ARF (no PD); AFTA (largest

markets still external) Trends in bilateral FTAs Trilateral Summit in NEAsia; Six-Party

Talks (SPT) sometimes efficacious ASEAN Defense Ministers’ Meeting

(ADMM) Shangri-La Dialogue Asian Six in G-20 An architectural search for regional order

4. Premises and prospects

Centrality without performance? Evolution of the “ASEAN Way” Interests, institutions and identity Domestic constraints on regionalism Implications for the US (hub-spokes no

more?) Glass half-empty or half-full Shallow and patchy integration (e.g.

NTS) but won’t go away