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Strategy: winning in the post crisis world
Investor Day 2010 - 16 September - London and New YorkAditya Mittal
11
Disclaimer
•Forward-Looking Statements This document may contain forward-looking information and statements about ArcelorMittal and its subsidiaries. These statements include financial projections and estimates and their underlying assumptions, statements regarding plans, objectives and expectations with respect to future operations, products and services, and statements regarding future performance. Forward-looking statements may be identified by the words “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “target” or similar expressions. Although ArcelorMittal’s management believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, investors and holders of ArcelorMittal’s securities are cautioned that forward-looking information and statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties, many of which are difficult to predict and generally beyond the control of ArcelorMittal, that could cause actual results and developments to differ materially and adversely from those expressed in, or implied or projected by, the forward-looking information and statements. These risks and uncertainties include those discussed or identified in the filings with the Luxembourg Stock Market Authority for the Financial Markets (Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier) and the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) made or to be made by ArcelorMittal, including ArcelorMittal’s Annual Report on Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2009 filed with the SEC. ArcelorMittal undertakes no obligation to publicly update its forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise.
2
Today’s Agenda
• The future of our business• Strategy: winning in the post crisis world • Costs: protecting and developing our competitive advantage• Mining: building a world-class business
3
Strategic priorities
• Balance sheet strength• Maintain and improve cost-competitive position• Exploit our mining resource base• Execute organic growth opportunities in emerging markets
44
Strategic priority 1:Maintain balance sheet strength
5
Our credit metrics are strong; We are comfortable with the current net debt level
Balance sheet strength
• Moody’s: Baa3 • Standard & Poor’s: BBB • Fitch: BBB
Credit ratings
Net Debt (US$ billion)
• We remain committed to a strong balance sheet with good liquidity
• A solid investment grade rating is important to ArcelorMittal and remains a priority
• While our balance sheet offers flexibility, we are comfortable with the current net debt level of ~US$ 20 billion
• Credit metrics are improving with increased profitability
• We have significant support from a high quality bank group and proven access to debt capital markets
Balance sheet strengths
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
4Q 20
061Q
2007
2Q 20
073Q
2007
4Q 20
071Q
2008
2Q 20
083Q
2008
4Q 20
081Q
2009
2Q 20
093Q
2009
4Q 20
091Q
2010
2Q 20
10
0.0x
0.5x
1.0x
1.5x
2.0x
Net Debt (USDbn) - LHS Net Debt / Average EBITDA* - RHS
1.4x
* Based on yearly average EBITDA since January 1, 2004.
Commercial paper, 10%
Bond, 15%
Bank loans and others,
75%
Bond, 56%
Bank loans and others,
29%
Convertible, 8%
Commercial paper, 7%
6
New highly successful three-tranche dollar bond issued in the amount of US$ 2.5 billionin August further extended debt maturity profile to 5.4 years
Liquidity and debt maturity profile
Commercial paper (CP) expected to be rolled over
Pro-forma debt maturities* (US$ billion)
* As of June 30, 2010, pro forma for US$ 2.5 billion US bond issue in august 2010 and repayment of EUR 600 million 5.25% Eurobond in September 2010** After US$ 2.5 billion Yankee bond issued in August 2010
Debt structure September 2008
Debt structure June 2010**
Approximately US$ 13.1 billion of successful capital markets refinancing in 2009Successful extension of the maturity profile from 2.6 years at end Q3 2008 to 5.4 years after recent US bond issue
0
1
2
3
4
5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2039
Bonds Term Loans Convertibles Other Commercial Paper
3.13.8 3.8
3.2
1.31.51.6
1.21.9
0.1
1.61.0
7
Uses of surplus cash
Maintain assets
Organic growth
Selective M&A
Further reduce debt
Maintain our facilities and upgrade where necessary
Organic growth: mining development; emerging market footprint
M&A: selective strategic acquisitions; larger deals should be equity funded
Net Debt: surplus cash to reduce debt further
Surplus cash will be used to further reduce gross debt
88
Strategic priority 2:Maintain competitive position
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
US
A
Asi
a ex
Chi
na
Chi
na
CIS
Sou
th A
mer
ica
Eur
ope
575Mt0 Cumulative capacity
ArcelorMittal regional weighted average costs
9
Competitive position
• Competitive does not just mean low-cost
• More important is being competitive in target markets
Competitive on costs Competitive on quality Competitive on service
• We occupy a better-than-average cost position in the regions we are serving
• We have one of the largest R&D budgets in the steel industry; this supports our product quality and innovation
• We have a strong relationship with customers which reflects in our service quality
We have a strong competitive position today, but we can always improve
Source: World Steel Dynamics (WSD) structural cost curve
Regional average HRC cash cost 2009 ($/tonne)
ArcelorMittal global weighted average
Mid
dle
Eas
t/Afri
ca
10
Competitive position
• We are investing to improve our assets. Projects approved/completed over past 6 months:– LCA: Steelton new reheat furnace– LCE: new wire rod mill at Duisburg– AACIS: continuous caster for long products
at Kryviy Rih– FCE: upgrade of PCI facilities at Gent– LCE/FCE: build PCI facility at Blast Furnace
#2 of Dąbrowa Górnicza, Poland
• We achieved US$3 billion of management gains ahead of target; we aim to achieve a further US$2 billion by end-2012
We are investing to improve our assets; we target further management gains savings
Management gains realised and 2012 target (US$bn)
3.03.3
3.84.2 4.3
5.0
3.0
0.3
0.5
0.40.1
0.5
0.2
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
2Q 10 Mgtgain
Input Cost Yield &Quality
Energy SG&A Fixed cost Others 2012Target
1111
Strategic priority 3:Exploit mining resource base
Canada42%
Kazakhstan20%
Liberia13%
Ukraine10%
Brazil7%
USA3%
Other5%
• ArcelorMittal has a world-class iron ore reserve and resource base
• Our strategy is to commercially develop this to maximise the value for our shareholders
• We have spent time and money proving out our resource base
• We are now standardising the classification of the mining asset base
* Final resource estimates expected 2011
Geographical split of estimated iron ore resources* 2009
12
Our vast iron ore resource base provides significant growth options
Exploit our mining resources
* Final resource estimates expected 2011. The above preliminary estimates are based on surveys conducted to date and include inferred resources which, as of the date hereof, are still considered too speculative geologically to have the economic considerations applied to them that would enable them to be categorized as mineral reserves. The potential quantity and grade is conceptual in nature; there has been insufficient exploration to date to define a mineral resource; and it is uncertain if further exploration will result in the above targets being delineated as a mineral resource. There is no certainty that the above preliminary assessments will be realized.
Estimated iron ore resources of 19 billion
tonnes in 2009*
1313
Strategic priority 4:Execute organic growth options
Execute organic growth options
Source: WSA and ArcelorMittal estimates
Market position and market share estimates by region
No 1 inNorth America
No 1 in South America
No 1 inWestern Europe
No 1 in EasternEurope and CIS
No 1 in Africa
ArcelorMittalOthers
Emerging markets continue to offer the best organic growth potential for ArcelorMittal
• Superior demand growth potential
• We have the platform and experience:
already the steel market leader in Latin America, CIS and Africa
• ArcelorMittal focus areas for growth are Brazil and India
• We also have JV projects in the Middle East and China
Industrial and commercial network focus on market sustainability and growth opportunity
14
Brazil – remains highly attractive market• Structurally low cost
– Abundant natural resources– Short distances from plants to markets and ports
• Strong macro fundamentals - Significant growth through 2020– May become the seventh largest economy in 2011* – Steel demand driven by strong domestic market and
infrastructure development• Government infrastructure investments of $150bn over next 3yrs• Large projects for offshore oil exploitation (Pre Salt), iron ore mine
expansion and energy• US$14 billion in subsidies + US$ 30 billion investment for
affordable housing• World Cup 2014, Olympics 2016
• Import pressures rising – Exchange rate appreciation; State tax incentives; Higher selling prices– Historical participation of imports ~ 6%-7% of consumption should rise
to 20% in 2010, according to estimates of IABr
• Brownfield and greenfield expansions required to satisfy consumption growth of 8.9% CAGR 2010-15 (long prods)
Brazil may become the seventh largest economy in 2011
15* Source: Economist Intelligence Unit
Brazil – we have platform for growth
• We are already the No. 1 steel producer in Brazil.
– Advanced management methods with highly skilled labour force
– Modern and updated facilities– High performance plants are recognized as a benchmark
within the group– Largely self-sufficient in coke– We own iron ore mines with high potential
• Downstream and market orientation
– Commercial team and planning and logistic structure promote strong downstream integration through distribution centres
– Enhanced value added mix and services within the portfolio– Very strong brand
Share of Brazil Crude Steel Output*
Source: IABr
* Twelve months to March 2010
Strong leadership position in Brazil
CSN15%
ArcelorMittal Brazil34%
Others5%
Gerdau24%
Usiminas22%
16
Brazil – growth plans in place
• Brazilian long products capacity expansions:– 2010: Monlevade project from 1200 ktpy to 2400
ktpy (US$1.2 billion capex) – 2011*: AM Cariacica from 600 to 800 ktpy (under
evaluation)– 2013*: AM Juiz de Fora from 1000 ktpy to 2200
ktpy (under evaluation)
• Brazilian flat products business has excess primary capacity so the rolling mill at Tubarao will be expanded, or a new rolling mill built
• We expect to develop at least one vertically integrated greenfield project by 2020, utilising our iron ore resources
We are growing our Brazilian long product capacity and plan to increase in flats
ArcelorMittal Brazil industrial network
17* Planned project implementation dates
Brazil
Argentina
Bolivia
Paraguay
Chile Uruguay
Peru
ColombiaVenezuela
Ecuador
2300 km
Monlevade
Juiz de Fora
Cariacica
Tubarao
Vega Du sol
India – our old strategy
• India is an attractive market: – We expect India’s steel demand to triple to
>150mt by 2020– Balance ArcelorMittal's portfolio by establishing
presence in one of the most growth-oriented markets in the world
• Pre-crisis we planned 2 mega-greenfield projects at Jharkhand (JH) and Orissa (OR)
• We have made progress upstream – Karampada iron ore mineral and land licences
awarded in Jharkhand – Thermal coal mines in JH and OR
• Our plans have been slowed due to:– High tribal influence– We are gaining ground on land acquisition in JH,
but remains very slow in OR
18
India’s steel demand could triple by 2020 – we will be a part of that growth
Source: ArcelorMittal estimates
Jharkhand 1
2Orissa
Mumbai
Chennai
Bangalore
NEW DELHI
Kolkata
India – our new strategy• We now plan smaller steps: 1.5-3 Mtpa modules
• In areas with easier access to land (Karnataka) and proximity to strong consumption centers
reduced implementation risk
• Expertise of local partner is invaluable. Uttam Galva stake gives us:– Access to its large downstream network (we are
already largest importer of steel into India)– Partner in developing service centres for
auto/appliances using AM feedstock– JV partner for potential greenfield in Western
India
• Karnataka greenfield project: – Land acquisition expected to be completed by
end of this year– We are also expecting to get some mining
leases in Karnataka as well
• Jharkhand greenfield project: land acquisition is progressing well
19
Smaller modular sites planned between 1.5 – 3.0 million tonnes per annum
Karnataka
WesternIndia JVpotential
Orissa
Jharkhand
1
23
4
ChinaPakistan
Major steel markets
1
23
4
ChinaPakistan
Major steel markets
India – a summary of our new strategy
20
We now have greater visibility on our growth plans in India
Considering important factors beyond iron-ore:Logistics, proximity to the markets, infrastructure, execution timeSocial factors, business friendlinessEstablishing downstream to support our global network of mills
More Comprehensive
Approach
Doable plan of 9 MTPA by 2020Western India – Construction can start in Dec 2010. Production start ~2013Karnataka – Land acquisition can complete by 2010. Production start ~2015Jharkhand – Process of land acquisition commenced. Production start ~2016
Higher Certainty
Project locations well spread across East, West and South IndiaReduced exposure to MaoistsMix of captive and partially bought-out iron-ore projects
Better Risk Spread
AMI – Established presence in Indian SubcontinentAMDS – AM Dhamm, Chennai; Stockholding operations in Mumbai, ChennaiAuto SSC – in JV with UG
Brand Presence
Considering important factors beyond iron ore:• Logistics, proximity to the markets, infrastructure, execution time• Social factors, business friendliness• Establishing downstream to support our global network of mills
More Comprehensive
Approach
Opportunities by 2020:• Western India - Construction could start in 2011• Karnataka - Land acquisition could be completed this year• Jharkhand - Process of land acquisition commenced
Higher Certainty
• Project locations well spread across East, West and South India• Mix of captive and partially bought-out iron ore projectsBetter Risk Spread
• AMI - Established presence in Indian Subcontinent• AMDS - AM Dhamm, Chennai; Stockholding operations in Mumbai, Chennai • Auto SSC – in JV with Utam Galva
Brand Presence
2121
Recap
22
Re-cap
• Our balance sheet is strong – our debt level is comfortable and we do not expect it to change significantly
• We are cost-competitive and we have plans in place to improve our position further
• Investing in our mining assets to exploit our resource base is apriority
• Our strategy in India has changed; we are now on the ground selling branded steel; our first domestic production is expectedby 2013
• Brazil remains a huge growth market and we have opportunities to expand upstream and downstream