Strategies for Transitioning to Low-carbon Freight

Vehicles

NCST/STEPS Webinar

30 April 2015

www.steps.ucdavis.edu

Lew Fulton

STEPS Director

H2

Sustainable Transportation Energy Pathways (STEPS)

New STEPS/NCST report due out May 2015

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Fuel Cell Vehicle

Modeling Program

1998-2002FCV

Technology

Hydrogen Pathways2003-2006FCVs & H2

Fuel Pathway

STEPS2007-2010Fuel/Vehicle

Pathway Analyses &

Comparisons

NextSTEPS2011-2014Scenarios & Transition Strategies

1998----------------------------------------------------------------------------2014-------------------2018

STEPS is the leading global forum of low-carbon

transportation stakeholders

STEPS32015-2018

Critical Transition Dynamics

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STEPS: Generate visions of fuel and vehicle futures grounded in technical

and economic realities, a strong knowledge base for companies making

long-term technology investments, and sophisticated analyses of future

policies.

• The leading experts on modeling and analysis of alternative fuel transitions

• Preparing scientific analysis and convening policy and business decision makers

• Training next generation leaders in transportation and energy

STEPS program issues white papers that answer critical questions on low

carbon, alt. fuel transitions: How will/won’t these transitions unfold?

White Paper Draft Release Public Release Leaders

Biofuels April MayLew Fulton, Nathan Parker, Steve Kaffka, Geoff Morrison

Electric Vehicles May June Tom Turrentine, Ken Kurani

Hydrogen June AugustJoan Ogden, Chris Yang, Mike Nicholas, Lew Fulton

Natural Gas January February Amy Jaffe, Rosa Dominguez

Low-carbon Freight April 2015 May 2015 Lew Fulton

Integrative Scenarios for Low C Sustainable Futures

2015 2015Joan Ogden, Lew Fulton, Sonia Yeh, Chris Yang

CCS 2015 2015Joan Ogden, Nils Johnson, Nathan Parker

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Scope of talk:

• Truck characteristics, technology options, GHG reduction potential, costs

• Comparison across fuels, present and future

• 80-in-50 GHG scenarios for the US and California

• Policy implications

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Research Team/Acknowledgments

• Lew Fulton

• Marshall Miller

• Many data inputs provided by Andrew Burke, Lin Zhu, Hengbeng Zhao

• TOP-HDV Model originally built by Ben Sharpe, who provided help in updating his model for the current study

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EIA AEO 2015: truck energy use rising

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Intent and Focus of Study

• Accept goal of 80% reductions in GHGs by 2050 in US and CA, apply goal to trucking sector

• Focus on advanced vehicles (driveline efficiency gains), new propulsion technologies (e.g. fuel cells) and very-low GHG fuels

• Outside scope of study

– Programs/policies to reduce VMT

– Intelligent Transportation Systems (e.g. automation, traffic management), ICT for logistics

• Biofuels

– Included biodiesel and renewable diesel

– Did not include RNG (currently studying potential), though recognize it’s potential importance

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Punchlines first – what it could look like to achieve an 80%

reduction in GHG in trucking...

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• US biofuels use in Mixed case would be about a doubling of todays levels for all

purposes and must provide at least 80% reductions in GHG compared to base fuel

• Hydrogen use in the ZEV case would be about twice U.S. production for all

purposes and must be deeply decarbonized, e.g. from “waste” wind/solar power

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California (left axis) US (right axis)

Trucking sector includes many different truck types…

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Truck Type Description or example

Average Mileage/year

Relative fleet size

Long haul Class 8 long distance travel

Very high ~100,000

Medium

Short haul Class 7,8 regional travel

High~50,000

Low

Heavy-duty vocational

Refuse truck Medium 20,000 – 30,000

Medium

Medium-duty vocational

Trash compactors, bucket trucks

Medium 20,000 – 30,000

Medium

Medium-duty urban Delivery trucks (UPS, FedEx)

Medium 20,000 – 30,000

High

Buses Transit buses, shuttles, coaches

Medium ~30,000

Medium

Heavy-duty vans and pickup trucks

Class 2B and 3, > 8,500 lbs. GVWR

Medium 20,000 – 30,000

Very high

…and technologies/fuels

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Vehicle Technology

Commercial status Efficiency, Range, and Vehicle Cost

Barriers/issues

Conventional diesel/gasoline

Presently dominate all truck types

(baseline technology) Relatively heavy emitters of GHGs

Hybrid, plug-in hybrid

Commercial in heavy-duty pickups and buses. Expected to play a significant role in all types

Increase in efficiencyIncreased rangeIncreased cost

Reduce GHGs but reductions are modest compared to fuel cell and electric

LNG/CNG Commercial in almost all types. Significant market in buses, MD urban.

Similar or slight decrease in efficiencyLikely decrease in rangeNear-term Increase in cost

At best, modest reductions in GHGs except with RNG. Infrastructure not fully mature.

Fuel cell Extensively tested in buses and cars. Timeline for commercialization in other vehicle types could be 10-20 years

Large increase in efficiencyDecreased rangeIncrease in cost

Hydrogen infrastructure lacking. Fuel cells will likely have a shorter life than diesel engines for the foreseeable future.

Battery electric Near commercial in some applications, mainly medium duty urban

Large increase in efficiencySignificant decrease in rangeIncrease in cost

Range of vehicle is short. Vehicles with significant annual mileage may not be able to adopt. Battery life may not last expected truck life. .

Trucks vary by efficiency and range…

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Diesel Hybrid Diesel

Diesel Max Tech LNG Fuel cell / LH2

2014 2014 2030 2030 2014 2030 2014 2030

MPG (diesel equiv) 6.5 6.9 9.3 11.2 6.5 9.3 10.9 13.3

Gal/100 miles (own fuel units) 15.3 14.5 10.7 8.9 15.3 10.7 9.2 7.5

Approximate fuel storage requirement (volumetric gals for 500 mile range) 77 73 54 45 140 100 300 225

Sources: Burke and Zhu (2014), Zhou et al (2013), Calheat (2013)

New long-haul Heavy Duty trucks as an example

How we estimated life-cycle costs

• We made estimates of vehicle/fuel costs only for long and short haul heavy-duty trucks

• Estimates for 2014 and (roughly) 2030

• Assumed cost reductions as a function of R&D, scale, learning –thus our 2030 cost numbers reflect these, if they don’t happen costs would be higher

• Even near term costs assume high volume production for new technologies and fuels

• Costs are amortized over 15 years (with 15 years of fuel use) – this could occur over multiple owners

• Societal discount rate 4% used

• We have only made point estimates but acknowledge a high degree of uncertainty/variability

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Long-haul truck lifecycle costs: near term and long term

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Using a societal cost approach, fuel costs dominate

Short-haul HDT lifecycle costs

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Electrics possible but battery costs will be key

Fuel requirements and assumptions

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• By 2030, much lower GHG feedstock production/fuel supply pathways

must be well on their way to replacing current higher GHG pathways,

with >80% reductions per unit of fuel by 2050

• California has a significantly cleaner grid than the US average, so has a

“head start” for both electricity and hydrogen decarbonization

2014 2030 2050

Hydrogen100% from natural

gas reforming

50% from NG, 50%

from electrolysis

from grid electricity

100% from very low

carbon electricity

Electricity Average grid mix

Average grid mix,

significantly

decarbonized

Grid must be almost

completely

decarbonized

BiofuelMostly soy-based

biodiesel

Renewable diesel,

50% from cellulosic

pathways

100% very low GHG

renewable diesel

CO2 emissions over HDT vehicle life

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Differences across technologies, fuels, duty cycles, years

CO2 costs applied over HDT vehicle life

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Shown with a $50/ton carbon value – not a game changer

Truck scenarios using TOP-HDV

• Scenarios – fleet stock, VMT by truck type through 2050. Modify sales of new technologies and fuels year by year to reach goals.

• Two paths – ZEVs (FCs and BEVs) and biofuels/ZEV mix

• Benefits/issues

– ZEVs

• Significantly reduces both greenhouse gases and criteria pollutants (critical in CA)

• Vehicles initially expensive; for FCEVs no hydrogen infrastructure

• Requires electricity or hydrogen produced renewably (wind, solar)

– Biofuels/ZEV mix

• Does not require new vehicle (fuel is drop-in ready)

• Not clear how much low carbon biofuels are available (also more difficult to estimate actual carbon emissions)

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80-in-50 ZEV Scenario

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Massive changes between 2030 and 2050

Comparison of ZEV and Mixed paths

(HD Trucks for CA shown here)

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Mixed Scenario: Lower ZEVs but advanced biofuels w/80% GHG reduction must

reach very high blend share by 2050

ZEV scenario: FCEVs must dominate the market by 2035

ZEV scenario sales must ramp up very quickly after 2025…

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Punchlines revisited – what it could look like to achieve an

80% reduction in GHG in trucking...

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• Maximum vehicle efficiency improvement is a critical underpinning for

fuel substitution, cuts fuel demand even in the face of rising truck travel

• Hydrogen, electricity and biofuels must themselves be deeply

decarbonized by 2050

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2010 2050High ZEV

2050Mixed

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Hydrogen

Electricity

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Biofuels

Diesel fuel

California (left axis) US (right axis)

Truck policy and research implications

• National and CA efficiency/GHG standards will hopefully help offset truck travel growth to keep CO2 stable

• It would take major, rapid shifts in propulsion systems and fuels to hit an 80-in-50 target

• Do we need ZEV mandates for trucks? Fiscal measures a possible alternative

• More research:

– Truck buyer decisions and response to fiscal decisions – vehicle choice modelling for trucks?

– “Robustness” analysis on both costs and GHG intensities is needed

– For CA, regional disaggregation would be useful – which trucks are operating where? Bring in values of NOx/PM

– UC Davis spatial model of trucks in CA is in development

– Role of VMT reduction and efficiency via ICT, logistics, modal shift, etc.

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Backup Slides

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Truck technology costs are critical

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Diesel Hybrid Natural Gas

(LNG/CNG)

Biofuels Fuel Cell Electricity

2014 2030 2014 2030 2014 2030 2014 2030 2014 2030 2014 2030

Long Haul

160 160 185 177 224/183

187/ 183

160 160 255 216 NA NA

ShortHaul

145 145 170 162 209/168

172/ 168

145 145 240 201 466 309

Sources: primarily Burke and Zhu (2014), Zhou et al (2013); and analysis undertaken for this paper

And future cost reductions are uncertainPurchase costs for long haul trucks, thousand US dollars

We built up costs using component analysis

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2,014 2,030 2,014 2,030 2,014 2,030 2,014 2,030 2,014 2,030

Base truck ("glider") cost

Long Haul 145,000 145,000

Short Haul 130,000 130,000

Component costs

Fuel storage 1,000 1,000 32,684 18,158 1,000 1,000 23,331 11,666

Engine 9,000 9,000 20,000 10,000 9,000 9,000

Battery 7,500 3,750 200,000 100,000

Fuel cell 26,250 16,450

Motor 7,000 5,600 24,000 19,200 24,000 19,200

Accessories 2,000 2,000

Total component costs 10,000 10,000 52,684 28,158 26,500 21,350 73,581 47,316 224,000 119,200

Component cost markup 15,000 15,000 79,025 42,236 39,750 32,025 110,372 70,973 336,000 178,800

(1.5x technology costs)

Total Purchase Cost

Long Haul 160,000 160,000 224,025 187,236 184,750 177,025 255,372 215,973

Short haul 145,000 145,000 209,025 172,236 169,750 162,025 240,372 200,973 466,000 308,800

Fuel Cell BEVDiesel LNG Hybrid

Sources: primarily Burke and Zhu (2014), Zhou et al (2013); and analysis undertaken for this paper

With some heroic assumptions…

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2014 2030 Units

Fuel Cell 35 kg 1167 kWh 20 10 $/kWh

350 kW 75 47 $/kW

BEV 400 kWh 500 250 $/kWh

Hybrid 15 kWh 500 250 $/kWh

LNG 150 gallons 3632 kWh 9 5 $/kWh

Characteristics

Cost per kW or kWh

Fuel cost assumptions are important

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Fuel Fuel cost per dge, circa 2014

Projected cost, 2030

Source/comments

Diesel $3.45 $3.73 AEO 2014Liquid natural gas (LNG)

$2.75 $3.21 Based on UCD NG model estimates. Infrastructure must be built out and has high near-term capital cost;

Biodiesel (2014)Renewablediesel (2030)

$5.26 $3.87 NREL, 2013; near term oil-seed FAME biodiesel; long term drop-in fuel from cellulosic feedstorck with advanced process such as Fisher-Tropsch or upgraded pyrolysis oil

Liquid Hydrogen (LH2) from natural gas

$5.92 $4.39 LH2 derived from natural gas reforming, followed by liquefaction;

LH2 from electrolysis

$11.08 $6.97 Electrolysis: near term from electricity mix, long term with 50% renewables or waste hydrogen, followed by liquefaction

Electricity $3.82 $4.07 EIA average U.S. retail price

What will it take to cut CO2 80% by 2050 for trucks?

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Baseline long haul: Hybrids and NG

Scenarios across all truck types

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Baseline: steady growth to 2050, hybrids and NG

Scenarios across all truck types

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Baseline GHG emissions decline slowly over time

Scenarios across all truck types

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80-in-50 GHG emissions decline rapidly over time