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STRATEGIC EQUITY CAPITAL PLC
Q4 Update 2016
2
Notice to recipients This document is given to the recipient on condition that the recipient accepts that it is not a client of GVQ Investment Management Limited (“GVQIM”) and that hence, none of the client protections applicable to GVQIM’s clients are in fact in force or available, and GVQIM is not providing any financial or other advice to it.
This document has been issued by GVQIM in the UK solely for the purposes of section 21 of the UK Financial Services and Markets Act 2000. GVQIM, whose registered office is at 12-13 St. James’s Place, London SW1A 1NX, is registered in England: No 4493500 and is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority.
The information contained in this presentation is not intended to make any offer, inducement, invitation or commitment to purchase, subscribe to, provide or sell any securities, service or product or to provide any recommendations for financial, securities, investment or other advice or to take any decision. You are encouraged to seek individual advice from your personal, financial, legal and other advisers before making any investment or financial decisions or purchasing any financial, securities or investment related service or product.
The investments referred to in this presentation are only suitable for investors who are capable of evaluating the merits and risks of such investments and who have sufficient resources to be able to bear any losses which may arise from that investment (taking into account the fact those losses may be equal to the whole amount invested).
The information contained in this presentation is provided for general information and is not comprehensive and has not been prepared for any other purpose. Any financial, securities or investment related service or product referred to may not be available to all customers or in all cases; may be available only where specifically requested and agreed upon; may be associated with certain specific fees and conditions and may be materially different than as described.
Risk considerations:
You should remember that the value of investments, and the income from them, may go down as well as up, and is not guaranteed, and investors may not get back the amount of money invested. Past performance cannot be relied on as a guide to future performance. Exchange rate changes may cause the value of overseas investments or investments denominated in different currencies to rise or fall.
In addition, there is no guarantee that the market price of shares will fully reflect their underlying net asset value and it is not uncommon for the market price of such shares to trade at a substantial discount to their net asset value.
The unconstrained, long term philosophy and concentrated portfolios resulting from GVQIM’s investment style can lead to periods of significant short term variances of performance relative to comparative indices. GVQIM believes that evaluating performance over rolling periods of no less than three years, as well as assessing risk taken to generate these returns, is most appropriate given the investment style and horizon. Properly executed, GVQIM believes that this investment style can generate attractive long term risk adjusted returns.
These are not all the risks of an investment in Strategic Equity Capital Plc shares (“Strategic Equity Capital” or “SEC”). Investors should take advice from their own independent, professional financial advisers before making an investment decision and are responsible for ascertaining any income tax or other tax consequences which may affect their acquisition of any investment. FE Crown Rating : 4 crown rating issued July 2016 Morningstar RatingTM for 3 and 5 Years: 5 star rating first issued October 2013 Money Observer: Rated Fund as at 31st March 2016 Runner Up 2016, Winner 2015, Highly Commended 2014: Money Observer Trust Awards. Category: Best UK Equity Trust Highly Commended 2016, Winner 2015, Highly Commended 2014: Moneywise Investment Trust Awards . Category: UK Smaller Companies Winner 2015 and 2014: What Investment Trust Awards . Category: Best UK Investment Trust Winner 2015: Investment Adviser 100 Club Awards . Category: UK Smaller Companies Winner 2015: Grant Thornton Quoted Company Awards . Category: Fund Manager of the Year Winner 2014: PLC Awards . Category: Fund Manager of the Year Winner 2014: Investment Week, Investment Company of the Year Awards . Category: UK Smaller Companies Highly Commended 2012: Money Observer Trust Awards . Category: Best UK Smaller Companies Trust Winner 2011: Investment Trust Magazine . Category: Best Small Companies Trust
3
Contents
Q4 update 2016
• Summary & highlights 5
• Performance 7
• Detailed portfolio analysis 13
Outlook 17
Appendix 30
Q4 UPDATE 2016
5
Q4 2016 Executive summary • Net assets per share increased by 1.2%1 over the period, with net cash averaging 15.2% over Q4
• FTSE Smaller Companies ex Investment Trusts Index increased by 4.6% in Q4 2016. We estimate that the IA
UK Smaller Companies sector increased by 4.2%1
• Lack of exposure to resources stocks has contributed to the NAV lagging broader markets over the last year • Net cash balance decreased from 17.0% to end the period at 11.2%
• Recommended bid for longstanding portfolio company E2V at a 48% premium from US trade peer Teledyne.
Completion expected mid March 2017
• Forecast portfolio earnings growth continues to exceed the FTSE Smaller Companies Index, despite much lower financial gearing of the portfolio. Portfolio also less geared than equivalent AIM companies1
• Portfolio rating has reduced both Year on Year and Quarter on Quarter. Rating even lower ex E2V and Tribal
(former subject to agreed bid; latter on recovery multiple)
• We believe that there is significant earnings “self-help” within the portfolio, as well as companies which are trading on considerable discounts to precedent M&A multiples
Share price & discount • Average discount of c.10.8%1 over the quarter, ending the period at c.11.4%
As at 31st December 2016 Source: 1. Bloomberg; Capita; Factset; iii; Trustnet & GVQIM Note: IA = Investment Association – UK Smaller Company OEICs Past performance is no guarantee of future performance and the value of investments can go down as well as up
6
Q4 2016 Highlights
Investment highlights1: • Net assets per share increased by 1.2%, compared with the 4.6% rise in the FTSE Smaller Companies (ex
investment trusts) index
• 11.2% net cash at the end of December reflects top up investments made in November and early December. >5% points of cash deployed
• Portfolio forward earnings growth marginally increased from 12.7% to 13.0% over the quarter. Portfolio p/e rating has reduced by 0.8x to 16.4x
• Takeover of E2V provides clean exit at a reasonable price. Excellent long term investment, which we have been highly engaged with. Cash will arrive in late March 2017
• Portfolio companies generally trading well. News flow limited but typically positive Unaudited financial highlights1: • Net assets of 225.1p per share2
• Average discount in Q4 2016 was 10.8% compared to a discount of 7.5% in Q3 20163
As at 31st December 2016 Source: 1. Bloomberg, Capita, GVQIM. 2. NAV unaudited. 3. Bloomberg Past performance is no guarantee of future performance and the value of investments can go down as well as up
Net investment of c.5% points over the quarter in existing holdings. E2V takeover provides capital for 2017
7
Long term track record
As at 31st December 2016 Source: IA; Bloomberg; Capita; iii data Note: 1. FTSE Small Cap, FTSE 250 and IA data rebased to SEC start NAV June 2009. 2. CAGR: compound annual growth rate Past performance is no guarantee of future performance and the value of investments can go down as well as up
CAGR2
FTSE Small Cap ex IT 15.8%
Strong cumulative performance since process improvements in June 2009. No use of gearing or derivatives
FTSE 250 ex IT 16.2%
SEC NAV 22.7%
IA UK Smaller Companies 15.8%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun 13 Jun 14 Jun 15 Jun 16
Cumulative rebased total returns1
8
1.2
6.3
12.0
19.8
4.6
12.5
7.4
19.4
4.2
8.1 6.8
15.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
3 months 1 year 3 years 5 years
Total return %
SEC NAV performance against comparator index1 & IA Sector2
SEC NAV Total Return FTSE Small Cap x IT Total Return¹ IA UK Smaller Companies
Medium and long term outperformance
As at 31st December 2016 Source: Unaudited Bloomberg; Capita; IA; GVQIM Note: 1. Comparator index FTSE Small Cap ex Investment Trusts Total Return. 2. IA data aggregates performance of some 53 smaller company open ended funds Past performance is no guarantee of future performance and the value of investments can go down as well as up
Annualised
Strong medium and long term annualised absolute and relative performance
Average Net Cash 15.2% 12.7% 11.1% 9.8%
9
2016 small cap market returns were narrow
• Significant index impact from the resource sectors, and for the FTSE Small Cap ex Investment Trusts Index (“SMXX”), Melrose PLC
• The resource sectors do not fit our investment criteria – and we have never invested in these sector
• Following a very poor 2015 for the shares of mid cap resource companies, a number were
– demoted from the FTSE250 to become very large weights in the SMXX from early 2016 – included for the first time in the broader small cap index – the Numis Smaller Companies Index (“NSCI”)
• Extremely strong rebounds in the share prices of some of these companies had a disproportionate impact on
the returns of the smaller companies indices. e.g. – SMXX – of the c.10.6%1 capital return for the year (total return 12.5%), Mining and Oil & Gas sectors
combined contributed more than 5.7% points – 54% of the total index return from sectors which began 2016 as c.10% weights3 in the SMXX index
– NSCI - of the 11.1%2 total index return in 2016, Mining and Industrial Metals & Mining delivered 4.2% points and 1.8% points, and total returns of 145% and 237% respectively. All other sectors delivered a return of 5.1% points of the 11.1% total return (46%), and began the year compromising 3.6% of the NSCI index by value
• In addition, Melrose, as a single stock, generated a very significant proportion of the 2016 SMXX annual
return (c.2% points of the total SMXX annual return of 12.5%) over the three months it was a member of the SMXX index due to unusual circumstances
As at 31st December 2016 1Liberum Capital; 2Numis Securities 3 Peel Hunt NB: Resource sectors (Oil & Gas & Mining) comprised 7.6% of SMXX at the beginning of 2015 and between 12 and 13% at the beginning of Jan 20143
Past performance is no guarantee of future performance and the value of investments can go down as well as up
10
Q4 performance attribution
Company Total return three months to 31st December 2016 (%)
Contribution to return (bps) GVQIM Comment
Top 5 contributors
e2v Technologies 16.9% 156 Slightly weak interims followed by recommended bid approach
Wilmington 7.0% 56 In line Q1 trading statement
EMIS 2.8% 27 CEO retirement announced
Tribal 3.2% 22 US peer Jenzabar continues to purchase shares
Harworth Group 6.2% 16 Positive newsflow on site disposals
Bottom 5 contributors
IFG Group -6.3% -43 Cut in base rates reduces interest income. CEO changes
Servelec Group -3.6% -29 Announces award of oil and gas automation contract
Goals Soccer -4.9% -26 No newsflow
Equiniti Group -2.1% -18 Shares depressed by share placing
Clinigen Group -1.3% -14 Shares were weak into the end of the year – forced seller?
Total 1.2% Average net cash position 15.2%
FTSE Small Cap Ex IT 4.6%
As at 31st December 2016 Source: Attribution estimates based on FactSet Portfolio Analysis and GVQIM Past performance is no guarantee of future performance and the value of investments can go down as well as up
E2V realisation. Clinigen shares were very weak in the last few days of the year on no news
11
Case study – E2V Technologies
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16
E2V share price FTSE Small Cap ex IT FTSE Electricals & Electronics
Review of company with new IAP* member
Longstanding CEO leaves
New Chairman appointed New CEO joins
GVQIM governance engagement
Site visit with IAP member
• Initial investment thesis
- Support balance sheet repair - High IP business, trading at trough
sales, margins, rating - Operational upside
• Following review with new IAP member in
late 2011, decision taken to lengthen investment horizon and engage:
- Whilst good return made to date, the IAP member & SW concluded that the business was still underperforming its potential
- New Chairman and CEO were appointed in 2013
• New CEO initiated a significant change
process
- Strategic focus/simplification - Significant people and culture change - Focus on customer - Operational improvement
• Attracted bid from longstanding suitor and trade peer Teledyne Technologies Inc
IRR of around 40% (no gearing) during hold of >7 years We believe that fundamental research and corporate engagement have driven returns
Share price
As at 31st December 2016 Source: GVQIM, Bloomberg * Industrial Advisory Panel Note: Capital return only. FITSE Small Cap ex IT and FTSE Electricals and Electronics sectors rebased to SEC’s initial purchase price of E2V shares
Share price performance since first SEC investment
Bid from Teledyne
12
Q4 saw purchases significantly exceed disposals
Investment highlights • £8.5m purchases of existing holdings • £4.3m additional investment in Equiniti, some of which
was via institutional placing
• IFG (£1.1m), E2V (£0.8m – between interims and bid approach), Harworth (£0.8m), EMIS (£0.7m), Servelec (£0.7m)
• No new investments made
Realisation highlights • £0.5m disposals
• Mainly continued profit taking in Gooch & Housego
(£0.3m)
As at 31st December 2016 Source: GVQIM Past performance is no guarantee of future performance and the value of investments can go down as well as up
Investments mainly made during a period of weak share prices of portfolio companies in November and early December
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Q3
05
Q3
06
Q3
07
Q3
08
Q3
09
Q3
10
Q3
11
Q3
12
Q3
13
Q3
14
Q3
15
Q3
16
Moving annual total purchases and sales as % of NAV
Purchases Disposals
Purchases buoyed by SEC’s share issuance
13
Highly concentrated and unconstrained portfolio
As at 31st December 2016 Source: GVQIM Note: *“Other”: UK listed companies which are not eligible for inclusion in indices either due to liquidity or dual listed with only standard list on the LSE, with market cap. of £150-£350m Past performance is no guarantee of future performance and the value of investments can go down as well as up
Concentration
1 Top 10 76.0%
2 Rank 11 - 15 11.8%
3 Smaller holdings 1.0%
4 Net cash 11.2%
Sector exposure by value
1 Technology – software & services 24.7%
2 Support Services 16.3%
3 Electronics 12.9%
4 Healthcare 8.5%
5 Media 7.8%
6 Financials 7.8%
7 Consumer Services 4.2%
8 Industrials 3.1%
9 Property 2.7%
10 Unlisted 0.9%
11 Net cash 11.2%
Value by market cap band
1 <£50m 0.1%
2 £50m - £100m 5.6%
3 £100m - £200m 22.7%
4 £200m - £300m 15.3%
5 £300m - £500m 9.1%
6 > £500m 35.2%
7 Unlisted 0.9%
8 Net cash 11.2%
Value by index membership No. Holdings
1 Small Cap 39.1% 5
2 Aim 32.4% 8
3 Other* 16.4% 3
4 Unlisted 0.9% 1
5 Net cash 11.2%
1 2
3
4
5
6
7 8
1
2
3 4
1
2
3
4 5
E2V was 10.0% of the portfolio at the year end, a Top 10 holding & >£500m market cap Will turn into cash in mid March 2017 due to the takeover
1
2
3 4
5
6
7 8
9 10
11
14
Portfolio valuation – ex Harworth and Vintage
Portfolio weighted average
Portfolio weighted median
FTSE UK Small Cap ex investment trusts
FTSE UK Small Cap ex
investment trusts ex resources
FTSE AIM ex resources
Number of securities 15 15 149 138 603
Market capitalisation (£m) 401 489 327 326 101
Consensus EV/EBITDA FY1 10.4x 8.3x 6.5x* 7.3x* 11.2x
Consensus price earnings FY1 16.4x 16.2x 12.6x* 12.4x* 16.4x
Consensus FY1 earnings growth 13.0% 11.0% 11.8%* 10.9%* 12.9%
Consensus dividend yield FY1 2.4% 2.6% 3.1%* 3.7%* 2.4%
Price/book FY1 3.0x 2.8x 1.4x n/a n/a
Price/sales FY1 1.8x 2.0x 0.7x n/a n/a
Price/cash flow 14.4x 14.4x n/a n/a n/a
Debt to EBITDA 0.1x -0.1x 1.7x 1.6x 1.0x
GVQIM cash flow yield FY11 9.0% 9.1% n/a n/a n/a
Overseas sales as % 40.3% 26.0% n/a n/a n/a
As at 31st December 2016 for SEC; as at 1st January 2017 for Index data Source: Factset portfolio analysis; Bloomberg; Peel Hunt; *Index is ex loss makers – i.e. valuation and yield is flattered. Harworth Estates & Vintage excluded from analysis Note: 1. GVQIM cashflow yield: (12m forward Cash EBITDA minus maintenance capex)/(market capitalisation plus 12m forward net debt) Past performance is no guarantee of future performance and the value of investments can go down as well as up
Portfolio average metrics closer to AIM than FTSE Small Cap. Price to cashflow metrics look attractive Portfolio ratings more attractive ex E2V (subject to bid premium) and Tribal (high p/e recovery rating)
15
Top 10 holdings1
Company Vintage Sector
GVQIM Funds %
of company
Return potential2
Progress vs thesis
GVQIM CF
yield3 NTM4
Net debt/ EBITDA
NTM4 12 month catalysts Market
leader2
Equiniti 2016 Support Services >5% High Ahead 9.5% 2.1x Delivery of organic growth and cashflow. M&A? Becomes more broadly owned Yes in niches
e2v technologies 2009 Electronics >5% N/A In line 9.1% -0.1x N/A – recommended bid from Teledyne Inc Yes - niche
Servelec 2013 Technology >5% Medium Behind 9.8% -0.2x Work begins on oil & gas platform 2; clarity on prospects for healthcare market
Yes – UK niches
Clinigen 2014 Healthcare >3% Medium Ahead 8.3% 0.4x Article 31 for Cardioxane lifted. Delivery of organic growth Yes – niche
Wilmington 2010 Media >5% Medium In line 10.4% 0.8x Overseas growth; de-gearing; M&A Yes - niche
Tribal 2014 Support Services >5% High Behind 4.0% -0.8x Update on improvement plan Yes - UK
EMIS 2014 Technology >3% Medium Ahead 8.3% -0.4x Traction in secondary care business Yes – UK
4imprint 2006 Support Services <3% Medium Ahead 7.4% -0.5x Continued US growth Yes - US niche
IFG Group 2015 Financials >5% High In line 12.2% -2.2x Initiatives to recover margin. In H2, cross sell of GIA and ISAs into SIPP client base
#2 in high end SIPPs
Goals Soccer 2012 Consumer Services >5% High Behind 9.9% 1.5x New pitch capex and soft comps drive recovery in L4L sales growth Yes - UK
As at 31st December 2016. Source: GVQIM analysis; Capita Note: 1. Top 10 holdings representing c.71% of NAV. 2. In the opinion of GVQIM. 3. GVQIM cashflow yield: (12m forward Cash EBITDA minus maintenance capex)/(market capitalisation plus 12m forward net debt). 4. NTM: Next Twelve Months Past performance is no guarantee of future performance and the value of investments can go down as well as up
Equiniti most geared but due to de-gear materially
16
Investment pipeline considerations
• Valuations seem polarised in the small cap market – Quality growth with momentum mostly expensive, or very expensive. De-ratings severe when news
disappoints – Many “value” stocks cheap for a reason (e.g. contingent liabilities/non-earnings cash leakage) – Many stocks trade at, or above, precedent M&A multiples – less margin of error; less chance of M&A – Recovery situations can price in a good deal of recovery before certainty of delivery
• Liquidity remains low – Sub £400m market cap companies see either small retail buying/selling, or reasonably sizeable block trades – We have seen situations where: • a marginal change in buying/selling sentiment can have a disproportionate impact on pricing • spreads have widened materially • share prices are “stuck” – limited market making activity – “buyers and sellers stand-off” • even moderate overhangs/buying demand (in the case of the latter – particularly IHT qualifying AIM quoted
companies) causing individual stock volatility which is often untradeable – Difficult to see a positive catalyst for better liquidity in 2018 with MIFID2 – large stakes akin to a private
investment! • Some interesting IPOs – but caution and significant DD required; little interesting secondary issuance
• We remain wary of investing in companies with material pension schemes and deficits, due to the potential
poison pill this creates. This continues to limit the investable universe
As at 31st December 2016 Source: GVQIM
We retain a preference for reasonably priced quality growth, with self-help. Ideally non-cyclicals
OUTLOOK
18
Outlook summary • Positives
– Fall in Sterling is good for UK companies with overseas earnings – Market volatility is likely to lead to more mispricing and opportunities – M&A levels picked up notably in Q4 2016, with long awaited activity from overseas trade buyers – US banking sector appears stable (and much better than EU) – UK banks and UK corporates much better capitalised than in 2008
• Negatives
– Brexit impact, process and outcome is unclear, and will remain so for some time – Global macro risks remain unresolved: Eurozone/EU; Chinese shadow banking & equity bubble; public
sector indebtedness and persistent budget deficits – Potential for a European Banking crisis – Geopolitical risks remain e.g. Iraq/Syria/ISIL; North Korea; Russia; US President change – Liquidity in companies <£400m market cap remains poor – Aggressive re-rating (on low volumes) of some IHT qualifying AIM growth stocks – “crowded trades”
• The big “known-unknowns”
– How will equity ratings react if, as expected, US interest rates tighten • Bull case – “great rotation” – capital moves from bonds to equities • Bear case – all asset classes de-rate as the risk free rate rises – Is this equity cycle prolonged due to QE, and we are mid cycle? Or are we in the final stages of a typical 8-9
year cycle?
As at 31st December 2016 Past performance is no guarantee of future performance and the value of investments can go down as well as up
Trying to time when the music stops is impossible. Supports selective investment approach, a strong balance sheet and being prepared for volatility
19
The investment cycle – where are markets now?
Market Phase Bottom Early Stage Recovery Mid-Stage Bull Market Peak of Bull Market Bear Market
General vertical direction (but not horizontal direction) of asset price movements Investment Style
Value
Growth/Momentum
Balance Sheet
Fundamentals 20%
Improving but ignored 30%
Solid underlying performance
40% Sweet summer growth
20% Optimistic, Long-duration
projections
30% Over awareness of
deteriorating conditions
Valuation 20%
Attractive, but no takers 50%
Abundant bargains
30% Willingness to
pay up
20% Revised models justify
stretching
20% Shocked recognition of outlandish prices paid
Psychology/ Technical
60% Exhaustion, disbelief and
demoralization
20% Doubt, reflection and conversion
30% Faith, hope and charity
60% Euphoria, greed and
extrapolation
50% Fear, panic and loathing
As at 31st December 2016 Source: Morgan Stanley Securities; GVQIM
Does QE mean this equity cycle is longer/just different? How does slowing growth impact the cycle?
20
Earnings growth, cashflow and M&A to drive returns
Source: GVQIM © GVQ Investment Management Past performance is no guarantee of future performance and the value of investments can go down as well as up
Growth Corporate Activity
Value De-gearing
• SEC portfolio valuation lower than Dec-15 – materially lower ex E2V and Tribal
• We are not assuming wholesale re-ratings
• Some holdings trade at material discounts to sum-of-parts value
• Low teens digit aggregate earnings growth for portfolio
• Portfolio growth broadly in line with the market, despite portfolio’s much lower financial gearing
• Portfolio de-gearing continues at an estimated 4% p.a.
• Additional 2.4% dividend yield
• Potential for more activity given FX , niche nature, and (arguably) overcapitalisation of portfolio companies. Negligible poison pills
• Corporate debt in general is low. Larger companies gearing up again via M&A
We continue to target double digit annualised returns from the portfolio over the medium term
SEC portfolio
21
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Mar
08
Sep
08
Mar
09
Sep
09
Mar
10
Sep
10
Mar
11
Sep
11
Mar
12
Sep
12
Mar
13
Sep
13
Mar
14
Sep
14
Mar
15
Sep
15
Mar
16
Sep
16
12m forward EPS growth by FTSE index ex investment trusts March 2008 to date2
FTSE 100 Mid 250 Small Cap
12-month forward EPS1 growth projections
As at 31st December 2016 Source: 1. EPS = earnings per share 2. Peel Hunt Note: Index excludes loss makers Past performance is no guarantee of future performance and the value of investments can go down as well as up
FTSE All Share earnings projections have materially improved over the quarter, driven primarily by FTSE 100 companies, the principal beneficiaries of the on-going weakness of Sterling
22
How SEC’s portfolio dynamics compare to the market
Index Average market
cap
12m forward p/e
12m forward eps growth
12m forward dividend yield
Growth & yield
PEG ratio PE/(growth + yield)
Net debt/ EBITDA
FTSE 100 £16.4bn 14.6x 9.2% 3.8% 13.0% 1.6x 1.1x 1.6x
FTSE 250 £1.7bn 14.4x 10.1% 3.4% 14.5% 1.4x 1.0x 1.3x
FTSE Small Cap £326m 12.4x 10.9% 3.7% 14.6% 1.1x 0.8x 1.6x
FTSE AIM £101m 16.4x 12.8% 2.4% 15.2% 1.3x 1.1x 1.0x
SEC portfolio £401m 16.4x 13.0% 2.4% 15.4% 1.3x 1.1x 0.1x
SEC portfolio ex E2V & Tribal
£403m 15.1x 12.2% 2.4% 14.6% 1.2x 1.0x 0.2x
As at 31st December 2016 for SEC and index data from Peel Hunt Source: Peel Hunt; Capita; Factset; GVQIM Note: *Indices presented exclude resources, as well as non-dividend payers and loss makers Past performance is no guarantee of future performance and the value of investments can go down as well as up
FTSE100 growth rates may be buoyed by the depreciation of Sterling, given the level of overseas earnings Portfolio metrics similar to FTSE AIM, ex debt, despite average company being 4x size (and more liquid?)
Valuation and growth metrics of key indices ex oil, miners and ex loss makers and non-dividend payers*
23
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%20
03
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
'Lit' trades
'Dark' + 'Lit'
As at 31st December 2016 Source: Liberum, Bloomberg Note: *Assuming 100% of daily volume Past performance is no guarantee of future performance and the value of investments can go down as well as up
% of free float traded / month – FTSE 250 % of free float traded / month – FTSE Small Cap
0%
5%
10%
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
'Lit' trades
'Dark' + 'Lit'
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
FTSE 100 FTSE 250 FTSE Small Cap AIM 100
10% least liquid
10% most liquid
Index average
Days to sell 10% of a stock*
0.2 2.1
16.9
34.4
0
20
40
60
FTSE 100 FTSE 250 FTSE SmallCap
AIM 100
Days to trade £50m* (average)
FTSE Small Cap liquidity remains low
FTSE 250 liquidity almost 4x that of Small Cap – and unlike Small Cap is back to 2006/7 levels
24
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Value of acquisitions as % of index starting mkt cap
FTSE 100 (LHS) FTSE 250 (LHS) Small Cap (LHS)
Small Cap M&A levels picked up materially in Q4
As at 31st December 2016 Source: Liberum Past performance is no guarantee of future performance and the value of investments can go down as well as up
M&A still appears below trend. Notable bids from overseas trade buyers in Q4 2016
25
FTSE Small Cap Calendar Year 2016 downgrades
As at 31st December 2016 Source: Peel Hunt; GVQIM Note: Index excludes loss makers
Aggregate sector earnings disappointed again other than financial services
-53.1 -25.3
14.3 12.2
28.6
10.0
23.5 18.8
10.2
-56.2 -81.0
3.0 8.3
-5.7 -1.8
23.7
-6.7 -1.7
-25
-15
-5
5
15
25
eps growth
eps growth by sector CY2016
13.3 11.8 13.1 12.5 15.9
11.4 11.3
18.8
13.3 13.7 13.4 13.9 13.2
24.9
10.2 12.4
21.9
13.7
0
5
10
15
20
25
Oil & Gas Basic Materials Industrials ConsumerGoods
Healthcare ConsumerServices
FinancialServices
Technology FTSE SmallCap Ex oils,
mining
p/e P/E rating by sector CY2016 Dec-15 Dec-16
26
Only moderate market re-rating over the year
5.4
7.5
10.3
16.6
14.7
-0.4
2.6
-1.7
-2.7
10.7
-10 0 10 20 30
FTSE100
FTSE250
FTSE Small Cap
FTSE Fledgling
FTSE AIM
As at 2nd January 2017 1CY = Calendar Year Source: Peel Hunt; GVQIM analysis
1.7
1.7
1.6
1.3
1.0
1.9
1.5
1.8
1.6
1.1
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
15.3
16.5
13.3
12.2
17.4
15.9
15.7
13.7
11.0
18.0
0 5 10 15 20 25
CY1 2016 eps growth CY 2016 net debt/EBITDA CY 2016 p/e rating
General trend of companies gradually gearing up, despite aggregate earnings misses
Implications • Another year of aggregate earnings disappointments, combined with gearing exceeding expectations except the FTSE250, which
also de-rated on an aggregate basis • FTSE100 relative re-rating compared with the rest of the market, especially on an ungeared basis
FTSE Indices data, ex resources and loss makers
27
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
Dec
02
Dec
03
Dec
04
Dec
05
Dec
06
Dec
07
Dec
08
Dec
09
Dec
10
Dec
11
Dec
12
Dec
13
Dec
14
Dec
15
Dec
16
£m Monthly net flows of UK smaller companies funds Dec-02 to Nov-16
UK Smaller Companies OEIC flows
As at 30th November 2016 Source: Investment Association Note: Total AUM in the IA UK Smaller Companies Sector in November 2016 was £12.0bn © GVQ Investment Management Past performance is no guarantee of future performance and the value of investments can go down as well as up
Outflows continued unabated through Q4
-2,500
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
Dec
02
Dec
03
Dec
04
Dec
05
Dec
06
Dec
07
Dec
08
Dec
09
Dec
10
Dec
11
Dec
12
Dec
13
Dec
14
Dec
15
Dec
16
£m Cumulative net flows of UK smaller companies funds Dec-02 to Nov-16
28
UK profit warnings
As at 31st December 2016 Source: Ernst & Young Past performance is no guarantee of future performance and the value of investments can go down as well as up
Profit warnings were down marginally YoY in Q3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160#
UK profit warnings per quarter Q1 1999 – Q3 2016
2015 2016 1999 2002 2001 2000 2010 2003 2004 2006 2007 2008 2009 2005 2011 2012 2013 2014
29
Growth in number of smaller companies has paused
As at 31st December 2016 Source: Numis Securities; Bloomberg Past performance is no guarantee of future performance and the value of investments can go down as well as up
Number of constituents of smaller companies index remains well below the middle of the last cycle Given buoyant market ratings, why is this so low? Perhaps more companies IPO and stay on AIM
438
316
277 263 269
250 241 228 201
163 164 154 135 136
151 155 149
0
100
200
300
400
50020
00
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Constituents of the FTSE Small Cap ex Investment Trusts Index
APPENDIX
31
Performance
As at 31st December 2016 Source: 1. GVQIM; Capita; Bloomberg; Trustnet. 2. Preliminary estimates based on Trustnet & Morningstar data Past performance is no guarantee of future performance and the value of investments can go down as well as up
2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009
Share Price Total Return -1.6% 14.2% 32.6% 61.4% 25.6% 9.4% 35.1% 252.1%
NAV Total Return 6.3% 12.1% 18.0% 46.0% 21.3% 3.9% 37.1% 63.8%
FTSE Small Cap ex Investment Trusts Total Return 12.5% 13.0% -2.7% 43.9% 36.3% -15.2% 16.9% 57.7%
IA UK Smaller Companies 8.1%2 14.7% -1.7% 37.4% 22.5% -9.0% 30.8% 50.1%
Share price return in 2016 impacted by the widening of the discount
Calendar Year Annual performance1
32
There are strict criteria for inclusion in our funds
Note: *Growth at a reasonable price © GVQ Investment Management
GVQIM’s research process aims to identify high quality coveted assets with attractive cash flows
Turnaround Distress
A
B
C
A
B
C
Asse
t qua
lity Asset quality
Investment focus
Speculative growth Fair valued GARP* Under valued Recovery
Avoid
Avoid Avoid
33
How we identify coveted assets
Qualitative Quantitative
• Niche market leaders
• Orderly end markets, with some growth
• Sustainable business model/franchise/uniqueness
• Overseas earnings
• Able to pass on price increases
• Intellectual property
• Operational know-how
• High barriers to entry
• High and/or improving ROCE
• Strong cash conversion
• Limited capex or working capital investment needed to finance growth
• Recurring revenues/profits/cashflows
• Ideally achieving, or has potential to achieve double digit operating profit margin
• Realisable surplus tangible fixed assets and/or working capital
Source: GVQIM © GVQ Investment Management
We believe coveted assets retain value even in tough times, and are more likely to be acquired
We look for characteristics which GVQIM believes potential acquirers value highly
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Our Black List screens out companies with fundamental business risks
Operational
• Excessive reliance on a single product, customer, supplier or distributor
• The primary driver of profitability cannot be influenced by management (e.g. resources)
• Inherently low margins
• Structurally declining markets
Financial
• Poor accounting systems or controls
• Weak cash flows – especially when reported profits look good!
• Excessive gearing
Governance
• Controlling shareholder with misaligned interests
• Below average/deteriorating governance practices
• Stakeholders unwilling to engage constructively
Source: GVQIM © GVQ Investment Management
We have learnt what to avoid from previous experiences
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Types of market purchases we consider
Source: GVQIM © GVQ Investment Management
Self help Broken growth Quality GARP
Time
Share price
Target buying point Target buying point Target buying point
• Typically low growth businesses • Some element of engagement
required to stimulate performance improvement
• Long term investments
• Momentum stocks, which have gone wrong. Over rated transitions to under rated
• Base investment case attractive even assuming moderate growth
• Often attract corporate suitors
• Quality, growing, high margin “value compounders”
• Temporary out of favour with investors -> opportunity to buy at a discount to fair value
Became relatively over valued in our opinion in late 2015
Shunned by momentum investors. Some interesting opportunities
Identified via deep research. Require corporate engagement to unlock value
36
Contact details
For further information regarding the SEC please contact the GVQ Investment Management marketing team below, or visit the Company’s website: www.strategicequitycapital.com For general enquiries, please contact: GVQ Investment Management Limited 12-13 St. James’s Place, London, SW1A 1NX Tel +44 (0)20 3824 4500 Fax +44 (0)20 3824 4539 Email: [email protected] www.gvqim.com Secretary and Registered Office PATAC Limited 21 Walker Street, Edinburgh, EH3 7HX T: +44 (0)131 538 6608 www.patplc.co.uk