Strategic Environmental and Sustainability Assessment of

WP4 T4.2 – SESA stakeholder engagement workshop – 6th May 2014 1
Strategic Environmental and Sustainability Assessment of electricity highways in Europe
Methodology Which conditions the different grid architectures must have to satisfy and assure sustainable results?
Phase 1 Understand context and strategic focus
Phase 2
develop guidelines
Opportunities Risks
TECHNOLO GY DEVELO
Uncertainties
Options
Main strategic options for the grid
Grid Design and Implementation
Patterns based on: • Main assumptions and priorities • Physical, technological and
management implications • What differentiates scenarios
Provide: ü Divers of discussion ü What EH2050 is aiming at
4 Strategic Themes identified:
• Generation and Regional Balance
• Storage • Transmission • International Strategy
Deployment Plan Task 4.3 – Draft 3th September 20137
Table&1&(&The&strategic&problem,&based&on&WP1&report&considering&boundaries,&particularly&WP1.4& Governance issues, legal and institutional framework
o Links, and cooperation, across sectoral public and private organizations, and governmental organizations: responsibilities, contributions – institutional design
o Relationships within and cross countries o Need for legal and regulatory harmonization to ensure equity across member-countries, equitable engagement
and benefits; emphasis on international agreements (climate) o Need to ensure responsibility in each member-country
Social equity and consumption behaviour
o Education and awareness of communities/population for the importance of sustainable behaviour o Ensure equity in access to energy (prices, technologies, social opportunities/costs) o Changes in lifestyles and consumption behaviour o Energy consumptions in Europe and in each MS, as well as sources of energy and type of consumption
(transports, heating and electricity) o EU2050 demographic trends and implications to the energy sector o Invest on research and development
Energy security
o Energy sources and energy dependency (Europe, Eastern countries, Northern Africa) o Climate change effects on energy efficiency, grid vulnerability and adaptation measures o Europe true potential concerning renewable energy sources o Invest on research and development
Environmental issues
o Climate change effects on biodiversity and ecosystem services, natural protected areas and change in natural values
o Landscape fragmentation o Climate change impacts o Energy efficiency measures o Mitigation policies and resulting production and consumption changes
Economic issues
o Central issue in the capacity for project implementation and pathways to take forward o EU28 and each MS GDP trends o Employment generation and economic role of energy based activities o National and international investment initiatives and risk analysis of programmed activities o Land value associated to programmed projects
Technological issues
o Advantages and disadvantages of centralized or decentralized processes o Assess available technologies and technologies in development, as well as sources and production methods.
Consider interconnectivity and sustainability of grids/technologies (smart and sustainable)
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Key drivers and trends • Supply safety and system feasibility • Market dynamics, EU Competitivity and consumption prices • Legal and regulatory framework • Natura resources preservation • Energy efficiency and CO2 emmisions reduction • Integration of renewable sources • Climate change • Public acceptance • Integration with non-EU countries and reduction of dependency on
foreign countries/regions • Coordination between EU member states and agents • Development of new technologies
Priority policies
Strategic objective
Possible values
Commercial availability of centralized storage (except PSP)
H / M /L
H / M / L
Deployment of decentralized RES L / M / H
Deployment of centralized storage L/ M / H
Deployment of centralized storage L / M
Deployment of nuclear plants L / M
Deployment of fossil fuel plants with CCS L / M / H
Deployment of fossil fuel plants without CCS
L / M
Increase of energy efficiency (include DSM)
M / H
L / M / H
10
GDP growth L / M / H
Land Use concerns L/ M /H
Transnational initiatives M / H Electricity imports / foreign relations
L / M
M/ H
Demographics L / M Societal perceptions and responses to Nuclear, Shale gas, decentralized units
L / M / H
Energy efficiency behaviours
L / M /H
M / H
M / H
L / M /H
Energy/ electricity imports
M / H
L / M /H
What are we assessing ? EH2050 Strategic Options
Theme Strategic Option
Energy Mix G3 - Dominant RES
G4 - RES non-dominant
Nuclear and Fossil
Energy Flow
G7 - High to very high flows from South and North to Central Europe
G8 - High to medium flows from North to Central Europe
G9 - Low energy flows
STORAGE S1 - Centralised Hydro
What are we assessing ? EH2050 Strategic Options
Theme Strategic Option
T2 – HVDC Underground and submarine transmission
T3 – HVAC Overhead transmission
T4 – HVDC Overhead transmission
IS2 – Relevant import from North Africa
OPTIONS RENEWABLE GENERATION • Photovoltaic • CSP • Wind offshore • Wind onshore • Geothermal • Hydro without reservoir • Hydro with reservoir • Biomass • Biogas • Marine technologies THERMAL GENERATION • Gas turbines • Hard coal generation • Lignite generation • Nuclear power (Gen IV, SNMR) • Oil for power generation • Fossil fuels with CCS • Combined heat and power
UNCERTAINTIES • Investment costs (min/max) • Operational costs (min/max) • Efficiency • Environment variables and
regulations • Technology breakthroughs • RES variability • Contribution to system flexibility • Scale-up and replication • Contribution to system services • Reliability • Manufacturing capabilities • R&D effort
Technologies of Generation 1. Identification of Technological & RDD uncertainties and options
OPTIONS CENTRALISED STORAGE • Pumped-hydro storage • CAES, AA-CAES • Batteries Lead-acid, Lithium ion, NiCd, NaS • Redox flow batteries • Flywheel • Other power storage • Hydrogen storage • Molten salt (CSP plants) • Power to gas (P2G) • Pumped Heat Energy Storage • Liquid Air Energy Storage DECENTRALISED STORAGE • Batteries • Redox Flow Batteries • Other power storage (SMES,
supercapacitator, flywheel) • Hydrogen storage
regulations • Technology breakthroughs • RES variability • Contribution to system flexibility • Scale-up and replication • Contribution to system services • Reliability • Manufacturing capabilities • R&D effort
1. Identification of Technological & RDD uncertainties and options
Technologies of Storage
OPTIONS I. ELECTRICITY CONSUMING TECHNOLOGIES RESIDENTIAL sector • Cold appliances • Washing and drying • Cooking appliances • Lighting • Water heating • Stand-by and electronic appliances • Space heating • Space cooling, ventilation TERTIARY (end-uses) sector • Space and water heating • Cooking appliances • Circulators, etc. • Computers, etc. etc.
UNCERTAINTIES • Cost of deployment of
ICT/smart appliances • Controllability of ICT devices at
large scale • Minimum DSM thresholds • Energy efficiency potential • Electrification of heating and
transport • Replacement rates of
customers’ places) • Technologies used by the concentrator,
aggregator, DSO & TSO
Technologies of Demand 1. Identification of Technological & RDD uncertainties and options
OPTIONS PASSIVE TRANSMISSION • HVAC over head lines • HVDC over head lines • HVAC Cables (submarine and underground) • HVDC Cables (submarine and underground) • Upgrading of existing routes • Combination of HVAC/HVDC routes • High Temperature Conductors (revamping of
existing transmission systems) • Gas insulated lines • Supra-conductor • High Temperature Superconducting (HTS)
cables
controlability • Technology breakthroughs • Environment variables and
regulations • Reliability of technologies • Scaling laws • Standardisation • System services • Manufacturing capabilities • HMI for operator (only for
Active transmission) • R&D effort
ACTIVE TRASMISSION • CSC (Current Source Converters for HVDC) • VSC (Voltage Source Converters for HVDC) • Offshore substations design • Phase Shift transformers • FACTS • Transformers with tap changer • System level protection and control • Substation level protection and control • Other HV substation equipment
Technologies of Transmission
• Social Equity • Biodiversity, landscape and Ecosystem services • Vulnerabilities
CDF 1 – Social perception and
acceptance
CDF 2 - Energy security and technologies
• International competitiveness • Market dynamics and regional equity
CDF 3 - Geo-Political Economy and regional
equity
CDF 4 - European Regional Governance
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Vision, goals, objec!ves
Priori!za!on: success factors
Cri!cal decision factors
Themes that represent priorities for strategic decisions to ensure sustainable
outcomes in the long run!
CDF ASSESSMENT CRITERIA
Main strategic options for the grid
CDF, Assessment criteria and indicators
Boundaries (WP1)
• Guidelines for future planning and implementation (2014 – 2050) • Planning & Management • Monitoring • Governance
Uncertainties
Options
Critical Trends (examples) • CDF1 - Social acceptance an acceptability
– Increasing fuel poverty across Europe – Public support for RES greater than fossil fuels and nuclear energy – Water and climate regulation ecosystem services decreasing with reduction of agro-ecosystems and wetland total area – Forest-related ecosystem services is increasing – Increased climate vulnerability of coastal areas and southern Europe
• CDF2 - Energy security and technologies – Overall improvements in electricity and heat generation efficiency by conventional technologies – Growing number of CCS pilot projects – Decreasing power outage duration – 3/4 of EU’s hydro pumped storage capacity installed in 8 countries; – Rising energy import dependency, mostly from the East
Critical Trends (examples) • CDF3 - Geo-Political Economy and regional equity
– Increasing harmonisation of the European energy market – Increase in the number of MS using renewable energy policy support measures – Attempts to increase equal access to funding for structural investments across Europe
• CDF4 - European Regional Governance – Development of common rules (network codes) – Increasing regional cooperation between TSO under the European Regional Initiative; – Cooperation mechanisms insufficiently used, threatening market integration – High allocation of support schemes for coal and oil products
Examples of Risks & Opportunities
CDF1 – Social Perception and Acceptance
Strategic Option (-) Risk / (+) Opportunity
(-) Uneven distribution of some of the environmental costs (e.g. landscape, biodiversity) associated with large scale centralised RES based system [Social equity]
(-) Increasing vulnerability to extreme climatic events, depending on infrastructure location and specific local climate change impacts [Vulnerabilities]
G2 – Decentralized and small scale RES
(+) Help promote increased awareness of energy usage and relationships with climate change and other sustainability issues, potentially encouraging greater uptake of greener behaviours [Social Equity]
G4 – RES non- dominant
(-) Could face problems of public acceptance and acceptability as nuclear and thermal generation technologies are not favoured by EU citizens [Social equity]
(+) May have a smaller land take footprint per unit of energy produced. Reduce energy development related pressure on land resources, the availability of land use/management options [Biodiversity, landscape and ecosystem services]
G5 – Nuclear and fossil without CCS near existing capacity
(+) Thermal and nuclear generation technologies sited close to demand with no loss of efficiency producing a constant supply of electricity, helping to maintain fair access to energy system benefits across Europe [Social Equity]
S1 – Centralised Hydro
CDF2 - Energy Security and Technologies
G1 – Centralized and large scale RES (-) Long distance transmission might result in high energy losses and requires higher consumption of raw materials for cabling [Energy Efficiency]
(-) Contrary to European macro-policies that favour an increase in distributed generation from small producers (EU Policy) [Energy Security]
G3 – Dominant RES (-) Inhibit the development of technologies not related to RES such as CCS and flexible gas technologies [Innovation and Tech. Development]
(+) Promotion of low-carbon economy and RES incorporation goals [Energy Efficiency]
G7 - High to very high flows from South and North to Central Europe
(-) Central Europe is left in a vulnerable situation, dependent on regional energy imports [Energy Security]
G9 - Low energy flows (+) Reduce vulnerability to supply disruptions, power outages and political instability increasing EU’s global and regional/local energy security [Energy Security]
S1 – Centralised Hydro (-) Limits future options by inhibiting technological development of other storage technologies [Innovation and Tech. Development]
S2 – Decentralised DSM (+) Reduce vulnerability to supply disruptions [Energy Security]
CDF3 - Geo-Political Economy and Regional Equity
G1 – Centralized and large scale RES (-) Unbalanced dependence on market access to energy supply, electricity price and real estate value [Market dynamics and regional equity]
(+) Viability/ease of management in terms of EU energy export and import potential and the development of energy trade agreements with third countries [International competitiveness]
(-) Discourage international trade initiatives and access to international energy markets (EU Policy) [International competitiveness]
G4 – RES non-dominant (-) Vulnerable to external market and political volatility due to energy import reliance (e.g. Russian gas and uranium) [International competitiveness]
G7 – High to very high flows from South and North to Central Europe
(-) Threatens regional equity [Market dynamics and regional equity]
(+) Support to greater energy market integration [Market dynamics and regional equity]
G9 – Low energy flows (+) Energy self sufficiency at MS and local levels [Market dynamics and regional equity]
CDF4 - European Regional Governance
(-) Centralization and large scale RES may determine regional imbalances and provoke unsustainability, because of biased competitive internal market of electricity (EU Policy) [Policies and Politics]
(-) Discourage small producers and local generation and a decreased empowerment and engagement of small scale energy initiatives [Responsibilities and Competences]
(+) Determine cross-border regulatory mechanisms (harmonized trades and subsidies rates) [Policies and Politics]
(+) Public coordination and cooperation through new context-influenced public policies to RES [Policies and Politics]
G3 – Dominant RES (+) Promote national strategies for European coordination in energy issues [Responsibilities and Competences]
G5 – Nuclear and fossil without CCS near existing capacity
(-) Success depends on regional security coordination among stakeholders [Responsibilities and Competences]
Examples of Guidelines
CDF Risk / Opportunity SO Guidelines
Planning and Management Monitoring Governance
1 (+) Small scale production of forest biomass likely to be compatible with multiple benefits for landscapes, ecosystems and ecosystem services
G2 Energy forestry to be delivered as part of an integrated approach to land management, adhering to the principles of multifunctional forestry
Conservation status of habitats and species of European interest
Engage the relevant stakeholders involved in forestry to share responsibility
2 (+) Decentralised generation may improve the energy system’s robustness to extreme climatic events, security issues and other risks thus contributing energy security
G2 Incorporate local generation and local / distributed storage with centralized solutions to reduce vulnerability. Adopt local policies for climate adaptation
Energy system’s vulnerability to climate change
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Examples of Guidelines
CDF Risk / Opportunity SO Guidelines
Planning and Management Monitoring Governance
1 (-) RES non-dominant strat. could face problems of public acceptance and acceptability as nuclear and thermal generation technologies are not favoured by EU citizens
G4 ? ? Engage the relevant public, at multiple scales, to find innovative ways of turning problems into opportunities.
2 (-) Central Europe is left in a vulnerable situation, dependent on regional energy imports
G7 Need adequately distributed and dimensioned storage to compensate
? ?
3 (-) High energy flows threaten regional equity
G7 Ensure that price/market coupling projects and agreements are developed in conjunction with energy system infrastructure improvements
? Greater regulation of pan-European electricity market

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Strategic Environmental and Sustainability Assessment of