Storage Systems Market Analysis

Dec 04

Storage Market & Technologies

World Wide Disk Storage Systems Market Analysis

Company Rev $M share% Rev $M share% Rev $M share%

HP* 1,790.40 7.6% 4201.1 21.1% 5219.8 25.7%

IBM 3,473.20 14.8% 3771.8 19.0% 4295.7 21.2%

EMC 3,803.20 16.2% 2400.4 12.1% 2524.2 12.4%

Sun Microsystems 1,382.90 5.9% 1440 7.2% 1295.3 6.4%

Dell 902.10 3.8% 974.1 4.9% 1283.4 6.3%

Hitachi 1,567.00 6.7% 1196.7 6.0% 1248.3 6.2%

Network Appliance 545.20 2.3% 520.3 2.6% 576 2.8%

Fujitsu 846.50 3.6% 599 3.0% 543.9 2.7%

NEC 505.50 2.2% 375.9 1.9% 334.6 1.6%

Fujitsu Seimens 233.60 1.0% 272.5 1.4% 286.3 1.4%

Other 8,414.40 35.9% 4151.4 20.9% 2671.9 13.2%

Total 23,464.0 19,903.2 20,279.4YonY Market Growth -15.2% 1.9%

Total External Storage Systems Rev 17,195.1 73.3% 13,097.1 65.8% 13,590.9 67.0%

YonY Market Growth -23.8% 3.8%

OEM Storage Systems Revenue 782.6 3.3% 1,204.3 6.1% 1,597.3 7.9%

YonY Growth % 53.9% 32.6%

% share of External Storage Systems 4.6% 9.2% 11.8%

* For 2Q02-4Q02, HP is reported as the combined entity of HP and Compaq. The data for these companies was reported

separately in 1Q02 and all prior years.

Source: IDC, 2004 & Company Data

Wor ldwi d e D i s k Storage S y s tems Revenu e b y Sup p l i e r , 2001-2003 2001 2002 2003

External Storage Systems Market Structure

Total External Storage Systems Rev 17,195.1 13,097.1 13,590.9% YonY Growth -23.8% 3.8%

External RAID 14,151.6 82.3% 11,512.4 87.9% 12,272.6 90.3%

External JBOD 3,043.5 17.7% 1,584.7 12.1% 1,318.3 9.7%

Direct Attached Storage 9,357.5 54.4% 5,931.9 45.3% 5,503.6 40.5%

% YonY Growth -36.6% -7.2%

Total External Networked Systems Rev 7,837.6 45.6% 7,165.2 54.7% 8,087.3 59.5%

% YonY Growth -8.6% 12.9%

FCSAN 4,873.8 28.3% 4,901.1 37.4% 5,886.7 43.3%

% YonY Growth 0.6% 20.1%

NAS 1,731.2 10.1% 1,511.1 11.5% 1,483.6 10.9%

% YonY Growth -12.7% -1.8%

Escon/Ficon SAN 1,232.6 7.2% 753.0 5.7% 717.0 5.3%

% YonY Growth -38.9% -4.8%

Source: IDC, 2004

Market Segmentation%of External

StorageMarket%of External

StorageMarket%of External

StorageMarket

2001 2002 2003

Revenue Revenue Revenue

External Storage Revenue growth projections

High Capacity Low Cost Drive Summary

Long Term Trends for RAID Technology

Raid Commoditization Basic function well understood

RAID, Failover / Fail Back, Drive rebuild, Cache Several low cost vendors with “Good Enough Solutions” Prices and Costs falling steadily

Raid Offload Basic feature function being pushed into silicon Single chip solutions coming from several vendors

Ivivity, Istor, Aristos Removes RAID engine as bottleneck

Firmware features now in silicon Huge improvement in I/O rates Performance under failure

None shipping in Volume yet

Large Disk Drive RAID rebuild issues – RAID 6 & RAIDn Rebuild times on failure can be measured in days Probability of a second failure relatively high Two failures with traditional RAID protection loses whole data set New Algorithms required

RAID Algorithms

Measure of cost

Measures of performance

Protection against failure

Total number of disks for N data disks

Ratio of total:data (for N=8)

Disk ops per write

Relative throughput 70R:30W (for N=8)

Relative throughput with one disk failed

Relative throughput per disk

JBOD

none N 1 1W 1 - 1

RAID-5 any one disk

N+1 1.125 2(R+W) 0.59 0.39 0.52

RAID-1/10 any one disk

2N 2 2W 1.54 1.47 0.77

RAID-6 any two disks

N+2 1.25 3(R+W) 0.5 0.36 0.4

RAID-51 any three disks

2N+2 2.25 2(R+W)+2W 0.9 0.65 0.4

RAID-5&0 any two disks

2N+1 2.125 2(R+W)+1W 0.97 0.78 0.46

Triple mirror

any two disks

3N 3 3W 1.89 1.85 0.63

Data Disk 1 Data Disk 2 Data Disk 3 Data Disk 4 Horizontal

Parity Disk Diagonal Parity Disk

Data1 Data2 Data3 Data4 Parity DParity1 Data Data1 Data2 Data3 Parity4 DParity2 Data4 Data Data1 Data2 Parity3 DParity3 Data3 Data4 Data Data1 Parity2 DParity4

Market Overview and Trends

Forecasted SCSI to SAS transition drivers Ability to use SATA or SAS depending upon need Parallel vs Serial Architecture Cable Length and bulk Low cost infrastructure Performance

2Gb to 4 Gb transition drivers Ease of Migration (2Gb / 4Gb interchange Performance increase Faster Controllers Faster drives

Enclosure trends 2U 3.5” and 2.5” High density

Long Term Trends RAID commoditization Raid offload AS and new architectures

SCSI to SAS Transition

Adoption Curve - SCSI to SASIDC View

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Time

Un

its

(000

's)

SCSI

SAS

Internal Drives Internal Arrays MainstreamEntry RAID

IDC View:

Gradual take up of SAS in a low cost server environment.

Adoption into arrays by late 05 in direct attach environments.

Entry RAID systems emerge Q4 2006

SAS becomes the mainstream by Q2 2007, with SCSI still commanding a presence.

Very gradual and cautious take up of SAS

Drive Vendor View:

SAS drives begin to ramp in Q4 2004.

By Q1/2 2005, SAS drives are common in internal arrays and driving a rapid take up.

Entry RAID systems are implemented in volume by late 2005

SAS becomes the mainstream by early 2006

A rapid adoption of SAS due to the performance and cost saving benefits over Parallel SCSI.

Adoption Curve - SCSI to SAS Drive Vendor View

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Time

Un

its (

000's

)

SCSI

SAS

Internal Drives Mainstream

Internal Arrays

Entry RAID

FC Disk Adoption Curve

0

5000

10000

15000

Date

Un

its

(000

's) 1GB/s

2GB/s

4GB/s

8GB/s

Total FC

1GB/s 1200 200 0

2GB/s 1608 3745 4800 1541 0

4GB/s 0 4625 7145 8109 3905

8GB/s 0 500 5895

Total FC 2808 3945 4800 6166 7145 8609 9800

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

FC trends – 2Gb to 4Gb

Total FC Numbers 2002 – 2007 from IDC.

Volumes for total year not per QTR eg: 4GB FC 2004 is Zero 2005 is 4,625

Breakdown by FC Interface speed Xyratex view

Early Mid Late

?

Enclosures

2U Enclosures Will likely be the standard for 3.5” SAS enclosures

Lower cost per unit Lower increment of capacity Similar to 14/16 on a per slot cost basis

Expected to be the standard for 2.5” enterprise systems Very high I/O density (5 to 6k I/Ops) Very low cost per slot (Similar overall cost to 3U wit 2x the slot count) High storage density, With 144GB drives over 4TB in 2U

Internal Rack JBOD 2.5” will be 1U with 10 or 12 drives

High Density Enclosures coming from several vendors All have design compromise Top Loader (Xyratex, ATA Beast) Front loader (multiple drives per carrier) Power issue for non-SATA drives for greater than 40 drives High density for storage Some cost per slot savings

Emerging 1U / 2U Storage Appliance Market

Carrier

Carrier

Carrier

Carrier

Carrier

Carrier

Tyan SMDCM3289

Carrier

Carrier

Carrier

Carrier

Carrier

Carrier

Carrier

Integrated Server / Storage Products Network attachment GbE Block and File Management Systems

1U Enclosures 4 SATA Drives, ATX (P4) Motherboard,

IPMI, GbE, Dual Inlet Power. 1/2 TB storage solution

2U Enclosures 12 SATA Drives, E-ATX (Dual Xeon)

Motherboard, IPMI, GbE, Dual redundant Power

4/6TB storage solution

Over 25 bids in progress 2005 Revenue and Investment

Opportunity

Storage Sub Systems Classes

3.5in Drives

SATA via SAS or FC

8, 12, 14 & 16 3.5in

FC/SATA/SAS/SCSI2.5in Drives

SAS & FC

Traditional

General Purpose

High Performance

Bulk

Storage

“Not All Data Is Equal”

Storage Systems

can now be tailored

to the Application

Capacity

SCSI

SSA

FCAL

SATA

SAS

Connectivity

Capability

SCSI

SSA

FC

iSCSI

SAS

Management

RAID

HA

Compression

Encryption

STRATEGY 1: Move along X-axis

Best of Breed Disk Enclosures

STRATEGY 2: Move along Y-axis

Best of Breed Interconnectivity

STRATEGY 3: Move along Z-axis

Best of Breed Capabilities

C3 Strategy:

Capacity, Connectivity and Capability

Modular Design Strategy: Capacity, Connectivity, Capabilities; C3

“The Box” is changing to meet new requirements

Basic IT Infrastructure

Lots of different boxes often connected together

Multiple interconnect fabrics to develop, install and manage

Basic IT infrastructureDedicated Processor Systems, External Dedicated Fabrics, Networked Storage

“The Box” is changing to meet new requirements

“The Box” is changing to meet new requirements

Next Generation IT infrastructureBlade Processor Systems, Internal fabrics, High Density Networked Storage

High Density

Networked

Storage

System

Shared I/O

To LAN, WAN &

Storage

High Bandwidth

Interconnect

High Density Processor

Blades

A New Type of Box – Integrated System Issues

Blade ServerUtility Computing

Modules

Shared I/O & Clustering

Switch

Shared IO Modules

High DensityStorage

Sub Systems

Power Density 2KW to 10KW per Rack Thermal Management

Increased Device Density

Server Systems to Blades 3.5” to 2.5” Disk Drives

EMI / RFI Constraints High Density Ultra High Speed Devices 10 - 30 Gb/sec channels for blades 4 -10 Gb/sec for Disk Drives 3 -10 Gb/sec for I/O

A New Type of Box – Integrated System

Scalable ‘in the box’ storage and servers Highly integrated solutions

Emerging new middleware

Repurposing of processor tasks Low Latency requirements High Performance Interconnect

Shared storage I/O & Storage

Resiliency versus Redundancy options

New Distributed Storage Environments Information Life Cycle Management Object Based Storage Grid Architectures

Blade ServerUtility Computing

Modules

Shared I/O & Clustering

Switch

Shared IO Modules

High DensityStorage

Sub Systems

RS-1600 Current Module Options

2Gb FC-AL JBOD I/O2 loops of 8 DrivesSFP Connections

Enclosure ManagementSES

1Gb FC-AL JBOD I/O1 loop of 16 DrivesDB9 Connections

Enclosure Management

SES

1Gb FC-FC RAID

FFx128-512MB Cache

Dual Host SFP DB9 Expansion

RS232 RAID Mgt Encl Management

SES

2Gb FC-FC RAID

FFx2128-512MB Cache

2 Host SFP Expansion SFP RS232 RAID Mgt

Ethernet RAID Mgt*Encl Management

SESBattery Cache Backup

2Gb FC-FC RAID

X24128-512MB Cache

2 Host SFP 2 Expansion SFP RS232 RAID Mgt

Ethernet RAID MgtEncl Management

SESBattery Cache

Backup

2Gb FC-FC RAID

IFT 5251F128-512MB Cache

2 Host SFP Expansion SFP RS232 RAID Mgt

Ethernet RAID MgtEncl Management

SESBattery Cache

Backup

The Xyratex X24 Controller

X24 RAID 5 4x 16 drives

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

0.5 2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 512 1024

Block size in Kbs

Mb

s / S

ec

seq read

seq w rite

ran read

ran w rite