Stone’s Sheep Situation in Stone’s Sheep Situation in NE BCNE BCNE BCNE BC

Presentation of Preliminary ResultsPresentation of Preliminary Results

March 07, 2005 Conference CallMarch 07, 2005 Conference Call

Jonah KeimJonah KeimAXYS E i t l C lti LtdAXYS E i t l C lti LtdAXYS Environmental Consulting Ltd.AXYS Environmental Consulting Ltd.

The Literature ReviewThe Literature Review

CategoryCategory BighornBighorn ThinhornThinhorn TotalTotalExisting ResearchExisting Research 2424 2424HabitatHabitat 55 1919 2525PopulationPopulation 33 1414 1818PredationPredation 44 1313 1818PredationPredation 44 1313 1818HealthHealth 11 1616 1818Disturbance & Disturbance & ManagementManagement

2222 1313 4141

TotalTotal 3737 105105 154154

Existing Research Existing Research ----comprehensive, multicomprehensive, multi--year, baseline collectionsyear, baseline collections

6 projects identified:6 projects identified:-- K Parker: UNBC ongoingK Parker: UNBC ongoingK. Parker: UNBC ongoingK. Parker: UNBC ongoing-- Peace Williston: ongoingPeace Williston: ongoing

S i 1983S i 1983-- Seip 1983Seip 1983-- Hoefs and Cowan 1979Hoefs and Cowan 1979-- Luckhurst 1973Luckhurst 1973-- Geist 1971Geist 1971Geist 1971Geist 1971

Existing ResearchExisting ResearchExisting ResearchExisting ResearchStone’s sheep study plan Stone’s sheep study plan –– baseline study baseline study

bj ibj iobjectives:objectives:1.1. To define habitat use and selection by Stone’s SheepTo define habitat use and selection by Stone’s Sheep2.2. To assess health of northern sheep herdsTo assess health of northern sheep herds3.3. To quantify levels and causes of mortality in sheep, To quantify levels and causes of mortality in sheep,

adults and juvenilesadults and juvenilesadults and juvenilesadults and juveniles4.4. To assess population status of sheepTo assess population status of sheep55 To determine movements and resource selection byTo determine movements and resource selection by5.5. To determine movements and resource selection by To determine movements and resource selection by

predatorspredators6.6. To define the influence of factors in optimumTo define the influence of factors in optimum6.6. To define the influence of factors in optimum To define the influence of factors in optimum

foraging strategiesforaging strategies

Existing Research,Existing Research,what have we gained?what have we gained?

Obj. 1Obj. 1HabitatHabitat

Obj. 2Obj. 2HealthHealth

Obj. 3Obj. 3MortalityMortality

Obj. 4Obj. 4Population Population

Obj. 5Obj. 5PredatorsPredators

Obj. 6Obj. 6Foraging Foraging yy pp

StatusStatusg gg g

StrategiesStrategies

Depth of Depth of High to High to Nil to Nil to Low to Low to LowLow Moderate Moderate High to High to ppUnderstandingUnderstanding(Summary of (Summary of all projects)all projects)

ggVV--HighHigh LowLow ModerateModerate to Lowto Low

ggVV--HighHigh

p j )p j )

Research projects were assessed against the 6 objectives for p j g junderstanding learned: Nil, Low, Moderate, High, V-High

Population StatusPopulation StatusPopulation StatusPopulation Status

data from 15 ground and aerial inventoriesdata from 15 ground and aerial inventoriesdata from 15 ground and aerial inventories data from 15 ground and aerial inventories between 1969 and 2004 were acquired; between 1969 and 2004 were acquired; survey objectives, survey effort, survey survey objectives, survey effort, survey y j , y , yy j , y , yarea, and survey intensity variedarea, and survey intensity varied

All data was for areas in or in close All data was for areas in or in close proximity to the Besa Prophet Preproximity to the Besa Prophet Pre--tenure tenure p y pp y parea or the Sulphur 8 Mile Prearea or the Sulphur 8 Mile Pre--tenure areatenure area–– Excluding Peace Williston Study.Excluding Peace Williston Study.

Data Data –– how far back did we really how far back did we really look? look?

Population demographics Population demographics p g pp g p0.7

n = 12 n = 8

0.5

0.6n 12 8

0 3

0.4

0.2

0.3

0

0.1Sulphur8 Mile Besa Prophet

Lamb:Ewe Ram:Ewe

Total Count of Sheep Total Count of Sheep ObservationsObservations

PrePre--tenure Areatenure Area YearYear CountCount

S8MS8M 19771977 997997S8MS8M 19771977 997997

S8MS8M 20042004 888888

Besa ProphetBesa Prophet 19941994 536536

Besa ProphetBesa Prophet 20022002 543543pp

Compulsory Inspection Data Compulsory Inspection Data ––Region 7BRegion 7B

400 9 5

300

350

400

9

9.5

200

250

ter

Kill

s

8

8.5

orn

Age

100

150Hun

7

7.5

Ho

0

50

197197197197198198198198198198198198198198199199199199199199199199199199200200200200200

6.5

7Hunter Kills Avg. Age Linear (Avg. Age)

76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

Year

Compulsory Inspection Data Compulsory Inspection Data ––MU 7MU 7--42 (Besa Prophet)42 (Besa Prophet)

Compulsory Inspection Data Compulsory Inspection Data ––MU 7MU 7--54 (S8M)54 (S8M)

40

30

35

40

s

N R T

15

20

25

nter

Kill

s

5

10

15

Hun

0 1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

20046 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4

Year

Weather and ProductivityWeather and Productivity20 1.5

Weather Index Horn Growth Index

10

151

0

5

0

0.5

-10

-5-0.5

-15

10

-1

-20 19711972197319741975197619771978197919801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999

-1.5

Habitat Habitat ––Management is most often applied from Management is most often applied from

a spatial perspectivea spatial perspectivep p pp p p

There are learnings There are learnings --take from what we know: take from what we know: –– Sheep Behaviour Sheep Behaviour -- V. High Habitat Fidelity V. High Habitat Fidelity –– Topography is a key (slope, aspect, ET) Topography is a key (slope, aspect, ET)

d i id i i–– Forage productivityForage productivity

–– Apply WLAP model for Winter Range and Apply WLAP model for Winter Range and confirm use from existing inventory dataconfirm use from existing inventory dataconfirm use from existing inventory data. confirm use from existing inventory data. Digitize historical geoDigitize historical geo--referenced data. referenced data.

Winter Habitat ModelWinter Habitat ModelAnalysis from K. ParkerAnalysis from K. Parker

Confirm Use from Existing Confirm Use from Existing DDData Data

HealthHealthHealthHealth

We do not have enough data on Stone’s HealthWe do not have enough data on Stone’s HealthWe do not have enough data on Stone s Health.We do not have enough data on Stone s Health.To date, nothing out of the expected range of To date, nothing out of the expected range of variability has been observed from recent looks atvariability has been observed from recent looks atvariability has been observed from recent looks at variability has been observed from recent looks at serum samples and from parasite surveys in MK.serum samples and from parasite surveys in MK.Awareness Awareness –– domestic sheep and goats.domestic sheep and goats.p gp gIncorporate a suitable long term sampling protocol Incorporate a suitable long term sampling protocol –– consider trying the outfitter sample collection consider trying the outfitter sample collection y g py g psystem used in NWT by Dr. E. Jenkins system used in NWT by Dr. E. Jenkins

PredationPredationPredationPredation

Conflicting data on relationships between wolvesConflicting data on relationships between wolvesConflicting data on relationships between wolves Conflicting data on relationships between wolves and sheep:and sheep:–– Opportunistic kills at low levels Opportunistic kills at low levels –– sheep are not a major sheep are not a major pppp p jp j

prey source for wolves (Carey / Heofs)prey source for wolves (Carey / Heofs)–– Sheep population levels have cycled with wolf controls Sheep population levels have cycled with wolf controls

(Elli t B d)(Elli t B d)(Elliot, Bergerud)(Elliot, Bergerud)–– The question::: What about the multiple prey factor?? The question::: What about the multiple prey factor?? ––

Parker?Parker?–– None of the existing research studies specifically None of the existing research studies specifically

highlight predation as a major population driver highlight predation as a major population driver

Disturbance & Access Disturbance & Access ManagementManagement

Sheep are sensitive to aerial disturbancesSheep are sensitive to aerial disturbancesSheep are sensitive to aerial disturbancesSheep are sensitive to aerial disturbances–– heliheli--recreation needs to be consideredrecreation needs to be consideredAerial Telemetry and wildlife capture has been shown to Aerial Telemetry and wildlife capture has been shown to y py p

displace Mtn. Goats and caribou and to influence study displace Mtn. Goats and caribou and to influence study results.results.

Sh h d ll i h i d i l di bSh h d ll i h i d i l di bSheep have done well with industrial disturbances Sheep have done well with industrial disturbances (mines) but do not do well with increased hunting (mines) but do not do well with increased hunting pressure and other results of increased accesspressure and other results of increased accesspressure and other results of increased access. pressure and other results of increased access. -- Access controls are the major factor to be addressed. Access controls are the major factor to be addressed.

From Problem Analysis to From Problem Analysis to S t d S l tiS t d S l tiSuggested Solutions Suggested Solutions

11 Use what we have already learnedUse what we have already learned1.1. Use what we have already learnedUse what we have already learned1.1. Digitize historical geoDigitize historical geo--referenced datareferenced data2.2. Traditional use data collections Traditional use data collections 3.3. Start a data libraryStart a data library4.4. Apply habitat models Apply habitat models

2.2. We need long term data for population level We need long term data for population level g p pg p passessments assessments –– stronger monitoring system neededstronger monitoring system needed

3.3. We need better data collections to assess health factors We need better data collections to assess health factors for Stone’s sheep for Stone’s sheep –– monitoring systemmonitoring system

4.4. WE need to be able to monitor and to test the impacts WE need to be able to monitor and to test the impacts of previous current and future management practicesof previous current and future management practicesof previous, current, and future management practices of previous, current, and future management practices against indicators for sheep against indicators for sheep –– Adaptive Management. Adaptive Management.