Stock Market Sentiment & Technical Indicatorsptmbook.yardeni.com/pub/peacockbullbear.pdf · Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical Yardeni Research, Inc. September

Stock Market Indicators:Fundamental, Sentiment,

& TechnicalYardeni Research, Inc.

September 25, 2017

Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683

[email protected]

Joe Abbott732-497-5306

[email protected]

Debbie Johnson480-664-1333

[email protected]

Mali Quintana480-664-1333

[email protected]

Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com

thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents

September 25, 2017 / Stock Market Sentiment & Technical Indicators www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Fundamental Stock Market Indicator 1-2Global Growth Barometer 3Economic Surprise Index 4Investors Intelligence Sentiment 5Bull/Bear Ratio Over 3.0 6Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 7Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 & Over 3.0 8AAII Sentiment 9Bull/Bear Ratio vs. Consumer Confidence 10S&P 500 Put Call Ratio 11Volatility 12Volume 13Dow Theory 14S&P 500 Moving Averages 15-16S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index & 200-dma 17S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index Minus 200-dma 18S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index Relative to S&P 50019

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1820

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100

120

140

160

200

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800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

26009/25

12/31

YRI FUNDAMENTAL STOCK MARKET INDICATOR and S&P 500 INDEX

S&P 500 Index

YRI Fundamental StockMarket Indicator*

* Average of Consumer Comfort Index and Boom-Bust Barometer, which is CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims,four-week moving average.Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Department of Labor, and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

yardeni.com

Figure 1.

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201840

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60

70

9/16

9/16

YRI BOOM-BUST BAROMETER & CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX

Boom-Bust Barometer*

Consumer Comfort Index

* CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims, four-week moving average.Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Department of Labor.

yardeni.com

Figure 2.

Fundamental Stock Market Indicator

Page 1 / September 25, 2017 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com


2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018600

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250

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450

550

650

750

850

9/25

9/25S&P 500 INDEX & INDUSTRIAL COMMODITY PRICES

S&P 500 Index

CRB Raw IndustrialsSpot Index

Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Commodity Research Bureau.

yardeni.com

Figure 3.

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018600

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2000

2200

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2600

700

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200

100

9/16

9/25S&P 500 INDEX & INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS

Initial Unemployment Claims(thousands, sa, four-week moving average,inverted scale)

S&P 500 Index

Source: US Department of Labor and Standard & Poor’s.

yardeni.com

Figure 4.

Fundamental Stock Market Indicator



2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018650

850

1050

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2050

2250

2450

2650

650

850

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1450

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1850

2050

2250

2450

2650

9/25

9/25YRI GLOBAL GROWTH BAROMETER (on S&P 500 basis) & S&P 500

YRI Global Growth Barometer* (1006.9)

S&P 500 Index (2496.7)

* Average of Brent crude oil and CRB raw industrials spot price index times 2 and divided by 10. Average then multiplied by 10 and 200 added.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Commodity Research Bureau.

yardeni.com

Figure 5.

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018600

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25

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125

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175

200

9/22

9/25

US STOCK PRICES vs. BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE

Brent Crude Oil Price*(dollars per barrel)

S&P 500 Index

Source: Financial Times and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.* Nearby futures price.

yardeni.com

Figure 6.

Global Growth Barometer



2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

9/25

S&P 500 INDEX vs. CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX(percent)

S&P 500 minus its200 day-moving average

Economic Surprise Indexyardeni.com

Source: Wall Street Journal and Citigroup.

Figure 7.

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

9

11

13

15

17

19

9/21

9/25

S&P 500 P/E vs. CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX(percent)

Economic Surprise Index

S&P 500 Forward P/E*

yardeni.com

Source: Standard & Poor’s, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, and Citigroup.* Average weekly price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.

Figure 8.

Economic Surprise Index



Figure 9.

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 200

1

2

3

4

5

0

1

2

3

4

5

Ratio Sep 5 2.59 Sep 12 2.33 Sep 19 2.66

9/19

INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BULLS & BEARS

RatioBull/Bear Ratio

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2010

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Bulls Bears Sep 5 49.5 19.1 Sep 12 47.1 20.2 Sep 19 50.5 19.0

9/19

PercentageBullsBears

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 205

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Correction Sep 5 31.4 Sep 12 32.7 Sep 19 30.5

9/19

PercentageCorrection Camp

yardeni.com

Source: Investors Intelligence.

Investors Intelligence Sentiment



87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

180020002200240026002800

200

400

600

800

1000

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1400

1600

180020002200240026002800

S&P 500 INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF3.0 OR MORE*

(ratio scale)

9/25

yarden

i.com

* Red shaded areas indicate Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or greater than 3.0.Source: Standard & Poor’s and Investors Intelligence.

Figure 10.

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 201600

5600

9600

13600

17600

21600

25600

1600

5600

9600

13600

17600

21600

25600

DOW JONES INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF3.0 OR MORE*

(ratio scale)

9/25

yarden

i.com

* Red shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or greater than 3.0.Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors Intelligence.

Figure 11.

Bull/Bear Ratio Over 3.0



87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

180020002200240026002800

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180020002200240026002800

S&P 500 INDEX vs BULL/BEAR RATIOOF 1.0 OR LESS*

(ratio scale)

9/25

yarden

i.com

* Green shaded areas indicate Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0.Source: Standard & Poor’s and Investors Intelligence.

Figure 12.

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 201600

5600

9600

13600

17600

21600

25600

1600

5600

9600

13600

17600

21600

25600

DOW JONES INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIOOF 1.0 OR LESS*

(ratio scale)

9/25

yarden

i.com

* Green shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0.Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors Intelligence.

Figure 13.

Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0



87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-40

-20

0

20

40

-40

-20

0

20

40

S&P 500 % FROM 200-DMAvs.

BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 3.0 OR MORE*

9/25

* Red shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or more than 3.0.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

yarden

i.com

Figure 14.

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-40

-20

0

20

40

-40

-20

0

20

40

S&P 500 % FROM 200-DMAvs.

BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 1.0 OR LESS*

9/25

* Green shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

yarden

i.com

Figure 15.

Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 & Over 3.0



Figure 16.

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20180

25

50

75

100

0

25

50

75

100

9/20

AAII SENTIMENT INDEX FOR STOCKS

AAII Bull Ratio*

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20180

1

2

3

4

5

0

1

2

3

4

5

9/20

AAII Bull/Bear Ratio

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20180

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Latest Readings Bulls Bears Sep 13 41.3 22.0 Sep 20 40.1 27.2

9/20

Bulls

Bears

* AAII Bull Ratio is the percent of bulls over the percent of bulls plus percent of bears.Source: American Association of Individual Investors (AAII).

yardeni.com

AAII Sentiment



2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201820

40

60

80

100

120

140

.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

9/19

BULL/BEAR RATIO & CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

Bull/Bear Ratio(4-week average)

Consumer ConfidenceExpectations Index

yardeni.com

Source: New York Board of Trade, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and the Conference Board.

Figure 17.

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201820

30

40

50

60

70

.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

9/19

BULL/BEAR RATIO & CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX

Bull/Bear Ratio(4-week average)

Consumer Comfort Index

yardeni.com

Source: New York Board of Trade, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and Bloomberg.

Figure 18.

Bull/Bear Ratio vs. Consumer Confidence



96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

2.75

3.00

3.25

3.50

3.75

.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

2.75

3.00

3.25

3.50

3.75

9/22

S&P 500 PUT/CALL(weekly data)

Average = 1.616(1996-2010)

Source: Chicago Board of Options Exchange.

yardeni.com

Figure 19.

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

9/22

S&P 500 PUT/CALL(4-week ma)

Average = 1.624(1996-2010)

Source: Chicago Board of Options Exchange.

yardeni.com

Figure 20.

S&P 500 Put Call Ratio



2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20180

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

9/25

VIX: S&P 500

Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange.

yardeni.com

Figure 21.

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20180

20

40

60

80

100

0

20

40

60

80

100

9/25

VIX: NASDAQ 100

Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange.

yardeni.com

Figure 22.

Volatility



1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20182

4

6

8

10

12

2

4

6

8

10

12

9/22

NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE WEEKLY VOLUME(billion shares, 4-week moving average)

52-week moving average

Source: Wall Street Journal and Haver Analytics.

yarden

i.com

Figure 23.

Volume



2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20182000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

22000

24000

9/25DOW JONES STOCK AVERAGES(ratio scale)

Industrials (DJIA)

Transportation (DJTA)

Source: The Wall Street Journal.

yardeni.com

Figure 24.

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

800

1050

1300

1550

1800

2050

2300

2550

2800

3050

3300

3550

9/25S&P 500 STOCK INDEXES(ratio scale)

Industrials Composite*

Transportation Composite

* S&P 500 excluding Financials, Transports, and Utilities.Source: Standard & Poor’s.

yardeni.com

Figure 25.

Dow Theory



2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

28003000

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

28003000

9/25-56.8% (510)

-16.0% (69)

-19.4% (154)

-9.8% (27)

-9.9% (59)

-7.7% (61)

-7.4% (27)

-12.4% (94)

* Dips are declines of less than 10%. Corrections are declines of 10% to 20%. Bear markets are declines of 20% or more. Number of days in parentheses.

S&P 500 INDEX: 2008-2017*(log scale)

S&P 500 (2496.66)

200-day moving average (2384.08)

50-day moving average (2469.98)

Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

yardeni.com

Figure 26.

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018-45

-40

-35

-30

-25

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0

5

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0

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15

20

25

30

9/25

S&P 500 INDEX(as a percent of 200-day moving average)

% from 200-day moving average (4.6)


yardeni.com

Figure 27.

S&P 500 Moving Averages



2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018600

800

1000

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1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

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1200

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2000

2200

2400

26009/25S&P 500 INDEX*

Latest price: 2496.6650-dma: 2470.33200-dma: 2387.62

* Ratio ScaleSource: Standard & Poor’s.

(+) Latest price is 1.1% above the 50-dma.(+) Latest price is 4.4% above the 200-dma.

yardeni.com

Figure 28.

73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

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25

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-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

9/22

S&P 500 INDEX TECHNICALSTHE DEATH CROSS & THE GOLDEN CROSS(50-dma relative to 200-dma, percent, weekly)

(3.3)

Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

yardeni.com

Figure 29.

S&P 500 Moving Averages



Figure 30.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18600

1100

1600

2100

26003100

9/25S&P 500*(price indexes)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18125

250

375

500625750

9/25INDUSTRIALS

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18100

300

500

700900

9/25CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY*

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18175

375

575

7759751175

9/25INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18175

275

375

475

575675

9/25CONSUMER STAPLES

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18100

175

250

325

4009/25MATERIALS

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18300

450

600

750

900

9/25

ENERGY

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1840

90

140

190240290

9/25REAL ESTATE

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1875

200

325

450575700

9/25

FINANCIALS

Includes Real Estatethrough September 2016

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1875

115

155

195

235

9/25

TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18225

400

575

750

9251100

9/25HEALTH CARE


200-day moving average* S&P 500 sector price indexes on ratio scales.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18100

150

200

250

300350

9/25UTILITIES

yardeni.com

S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index & 200-dma



Figure 31.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

9/25

S&P 500(price index as percentage of 200-dma)

% from 200-dma (4.6)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

9/25

INDUSTRIALS

(6.0)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

9/25

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

(1.6)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

9/25

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

(7.3)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-30

-15

0

15

30

9/25

CONSUMER STAPLES

(-0.4)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

9/25

MATERIALS

(6.6)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

9/25

ENERGY

(0.3)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-75

-50

-25

0

25

50

9/25

REAL ESTATE

(1.4)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

9/25

FINANCIALS

Includes Real Estatethrough September 2016

(5.4)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-40

-20

0

20

40

9/25


(0.1)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-30

-15

0

15

30

9/25

HEALTH CARE

(7.3)


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-40

-20

0

20

40

9/25

UTILITIES

(3.8) yardeni.com

S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index Minus 200-dma



Figure 32.

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.15

.20

.25

.30

.35

9/25

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY(as a ratio of S&P 500 Index)

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.18

.20

.22

.24

.26

9/25

INDUSTRIALS

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.15

.20

.25

.30

.35

9/25

CONSUMER STAPLES

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.20

.25

.30

.35

.40

.45

.50

9/25

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.1

.2

.3

.4

.5

.6

9/25

ENERGY

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.10

.15

.20

.25

9/25

MATERIALS

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.1

.2

.3

.4

9/25

FINANCIALS

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.06

.08

.10

.12

.14

.16

9/25


02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.25

.30

.35

.40

.45

9/25

HEALTH CARE


02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.08

.10

.12

.14

.16

.18

.20

9/25

UTILITIES

yardeni.com

S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index Relative to S&P 500



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Stock Market Sentiment & Technical Indicatorsptmbook.yardeni.com/pub/peacockbullbear.pdf · Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical Yardeni Research, Inc. September