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DISS. ETH NO. 17314
INTERMEDIATE STEPS TOWARDS THE 2000-
WATT SOCIETY IN SWITZERLAND:
AN ENERGY-ECONOMIC SCENARIO ANALYSIS
A dissertation submitted to
ETH ZÜRICH
for the degree of
Doctor of Science
presented by
Thorsten Frank Schulz
Dipl.-Ing., University of Stuttgart, Germany
born 13.01.1977
citizen of Germany
accepted on recommendation of
Prof. Dr. Alexander Wokaun, examiner
Prof. Dr. Konrad Hungerbühler, co-examiner
Mr. Socrates Kypreos, co-examiner
Zürich 2007
iii
What gets us into trouble is not what we don't know.
It's what we know for sure that just ain't so.
Mark Twain
iv
v
Acknowledgment
I want to thank all those people who have helped in achieving all that has been
reflected in this thesis. I want to thank them for their direct and indirect support
throughout my 3 ½ years stay that the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI). For me it has
been a privilege to be a member of the PSI Energy Economics Group. First of all, I
would like to thank my direct supervisor and Head of the Energy Economics Group
Socrates Kypreos for giving me the opportunity to join his group, for introducing me
to the secrets of MARKAL and for sharing his enormous experience in the complex
area of energy modelling. I am sincerely thankful to my doctoral advisor Prof. Dr.
Alexander Wokaun, for accepting me as a PhD student, for valuable discussions, for
his guidance and support to this work. I also want to thank Prof. Dr. Konrad
Hungerbühler, who kindly agreed to co-examine this thesis and provided me with
helpful suggestions and comments.
My very special thanks goes to Dr. Leonardo Barreto for numerous fruitful
discussions, for his feedbacks, directions, encouragements and his careful reading of
various reports, papers as well as this work. I greatly benefited from inputs and
discussions with Dr. Stefan Hirschberg, Head of the Laboratory for Energy Systems
Analysis. I am deeply indebted to Dr. Martin Jakob from the Centre for Energy Policy
and Economics (CEPE) for providing me detailed information on marginal-cost
curves and reduction potentials of dwelling houses. I want to thank Dr. Nico Bauer,
for his constructive critique and introduction to MATLAB and CPLEX. I also like to
thank my friends as well as all present and past members of the Energy Economics
Group who contributed in different ways to complete this work: Timur Gül, Dr. Daniel
Krzyzanowski, Dr. Bertrand Magné, Dr. Peter Rafaj, Ulrich Reiter, Dr. Michael
Spielmann. I am grateful to Pasquale Lauria, Ingo and Ulrich Löffler, Florian Nagel
and Jürgen Schuol for being around when I needed them and for sharing the funnier
moments of our lives. Finally I want to thank Dr. Mark Howells for advising me to join
the Energy Economics Group.
The financial support of the Swiss National Science Foundation in the context of the
NCCR-Climate project is gratefully acknowledged.
I dedicate this work to my family.
vi
vii
Table of contents
Acknowledgment .........................................................................................................v
Table of contents ....................................................................................................... vii
Nomenclature/abbreviations ........................................................................................x
Abstract .................................................................................................................... xiii
Kurzfassung...............................................................................................................xv
1 Introduction .......................................................................................................... 1
1.1 Motivation .................................................................................................. 1
1.2 Scope of the analysis................................................................................. 2
1.3 Methodology .............................................................................................. 3
1.4 Structure of the thesis................................................................................ 4
2 The 2000-Watt society ......................................................................................... 6
2.1 Description of the 2000-Watt society ......................................................... 6
2.2 Literature review ........................................................................................ 7
2.3 The 2000-Watt society from today’s perspective ......................................11
2.4 Some energy definitions ...........................................................................11
3 Defining the baseline...........................................................................................13
3.1 Structure and main assumptions of the Swiss-MARKAL model (SMM)....13
3.2 Renewable energy potential and nuclear energy......................................15
3.3 Energy and emission balances of the baseline scenario ..........................18
3.3.1 Primary-energy balances .................................................................18
3.3.2 Final-energy balances ......................................................................20
3.3.3 Electricity production and consumption ............................................22
3.3.4 CO2 emissions..................................................................................24
3.4 Description of the residential sector..........................................................25
3.4.1 Base year calibration........................................................................26
3.4.2 Future projection ..............................................................................27
3.5 Description of the transportation sector ....................................................48
3.5.1 Base year calibration........................................................................49
3.5.2 Future projection ..............................................................................53
3.5.3 Detailed final-energy consumption ...................................................56
viii
4 Evaluating intermediate steps towards the 2000-Watt society ............................59
4.1 Primary-energy balances of the 3500-Watt society ..................................59
4.2 The role of end-use sectors in the 3500-Watt society...............................63
4.3 Importance of alternative future scenarios with carbon (CO2) restrictions 74
4.4 Energy balances of the 3500-Watt society with a 10% per decade CO2
restrictions ................................................................................................79
4.5 Conclusions ..............................................................................................90
5 Complementary analyses....................................................................................92
5.1 Sensitivity analysis on discount rates .......................................................93
5.2 The influence of fuel-cells price and stack sizes on hydrogen cars ..........94
5.3 The influence of renewable energy-conversion equivalents on the
production of electricity .............................................................................95
5.4 Partial equilibrium with elastic demands ...................................................98
5.5 Assessing wood-based synthetic-fuel technologies................................101
5.5.1 Oil price sensitivity analysis............................................................103
5.5.2 Oil price and subsidy sensitivity analysis of the methanation plant 107
5.5.3 Investment cost sensitivity analysis of the methanation plant ........108
5.5.4 The comparison of Fischer-Tropsch and methanation plants.........110
5.5.5 Remarks on the methantion plant ..................................................111
6 Conclusions and recommendations ..................................................................113
6.1 The 2000-Watt society: Results from the Swiss MARKAL model ...........113
6.1.1 Primary energy consumption and final energy implications............114
6.1.2 Technological change and CO2 emissions.....................................116
6.1.3 Additional total system costs ..........................................................119
6.1.4 The influence of discount rates ......................................................120
6.1.5 Partial equilibrium with elastic demands.........................................121
6.2 Lessons learned .....................................................................................121
6.3 Outlook on future research .....................................................................122
References ..............................................................................................................124
List of figures ...........................................................................................................133
List of tables ............................................................................................................137
Appendix 1: Technological description of room-heating technologies .....................138
ix
Appendix 2: Technological description of passenger cars .......................................139
Appendix 3: Biomass technology description ..........................................................140
Appendix 4: Final-energy calibration of the Swiss MARKAL model (SMM) to SFOE
and IEA statistic of the year 2000......................................................................141
Appendix 5: Oil-price sensitivity...............................................................................142
Appendix 5.1: Primary-energy balances..................................................................144
Appendix 5.2: Final-energy balances ......................................................................148
Appendix 5.3: Electricity balance.............................................................................162
Appendix 5.4: Total system costs ............................................................................164
Curriculum Vitae ......................................................................................................170
x
Nomenclature/abbreviations
Bio-SNG Synthetic natural gas from biomass (wood)
bvkm Billion Vehicel Kilometres
bvkm / a Billion Vehicle Kilometres per Year
CEPE Centre for Energy Policy and Economy
CH4 Methane
CHP Combined heat and power
CORE Federal Energy Research Commission
CO2 Carbon Dioxide
CRF Capital Recovery Factor
DETEC Department of the Environment, Transport, Energy and Communications
DMD Demand
dr discount rate
EAWAG Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology
EEG Energy Economics Group at the Paul Scherrer Institute
EMPA Swiss Federal Laboratries for Materials Testing and Research
eq. Equivalent
ERFA Energy Reference Floor Area - Sum of the Heated Floor Areas
ETH Swiss Federal Institute of Technology
ETSAP Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme
FC Fuel Cell
FE Final Energy
FT Fischer-Tropsch
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GEST Swiss Overall Energy Statistics
GHG Greenhouse Gas
H2 Hydrogen
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
IEA International Energy Agency
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
kW kilo-Watt (1000 Watt)
Lt Litre
m meter
xi
MARKAL Market Allocation
MC Marginal Cost
MFH Multi-Family Houses
Mt Million tones
N2O Nitrous oxide
O&M Operation and Maintenance
P Power [W/s]
PE Primary Energy
PEC Primary Energy per Capita
PJ Peta Joule
PSI Paul Scherrer Institute
RES Reference Energy System
RC1 Residential Cooling
RCD Residential Cloth Drying
RCW Residential Cloth Washing
RDW Residential Dish Washing
REA Residential Other Electric
RH Room Heating
RH1 Room-Heating Single-Family Houses existing building
RH2 Room-Heating Single-Family Houses new building
RH3 Room-Heating Multi-Family Houses existing buildings
RH4 Room-Heating Multi-Family Houses new buildings
RHW Residential Hot Water
RK1 Residential Cooking
RL1 Residential Lighting
RRF Residential Refrigeration
s second
SATW Swiss Academy of Engineering Science
SFH Single-Family Houses
SFOE Swiss Federal Office of Energy
SMM Swiss MARKAL model
TAD Domestic Aviation
TAI International Aviation
TP Time Period
xii
TRB Bus
TRM Trucks
TRT Passenger Cars
TRW Two Wheelers
TTP Rail
TWD Domestic Navigation
TWI International Navigation
UED Useful Energy Demand
v velocity [m/s]
W Watt
W/Cap Watt per Capita
WSL Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research
xiii
Abstract
In future, the sustainable development of the Swiss energy sector under the umbrella
of the 2000-Watt society is of major interest. Thereby the vision of a primary energy
per capita (PEC) consumption of only 2000 Watts should ideally fulfil many targets
such as improving the energy efficiency of the Swiss energy sector, reducing the
dependency on fossil energy carriers, promoting renewable energies and contributing
to the climate-change strategies. This dissertation aims at finding realistic targets for
the vision of the 2000-Watt society until 2050. It looks at various combinations of
PEC and CO2 targets and estimates the additional costs to be paid by the Swiss
society. The assessment is conducted with the Swiss MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation)
model. Swiss MARKAL represents a bottom-up energy-systems model that provides
a detailed representation of energy supply and end-use technologies. It projects
future technology investments and offers an integrated analysis of primary,
secondary, final and end-use energy for Switzerland.
The analysis reveals that the 2000-Watt society should be seen as a long-term goal.
In the year 2000, the PEC consumption was about 5000 Watts per person with 44.4
Mt of energy-related CO2 emissions. For all contemplated scenarios independent of
the oil price, a PEC consumption of 3500 Watts per capita is feasible in the year
2050. However, strong PEC consumption targets can reduce CO2 emissions to an
equivalent of 5 % per decade at maximum. For stronger CO2 emission-reduction
goals, corresponding targets must be formulated explicitly. The opposite approach of
tightening only CO2 targets will reduce the PEC consumption to values between 4900
and 4500 Watts per capita, depending on the oil price in the year 2050. Therefore, a
CO2 reduction alone does not sufficiently move into the direction of a 2000-Watt
society.
The major changes required concern energy-transformation and energy-demand
technologies. Electricity will play, more than ever, an important role in a service-
oriented society in the future. The production of electricity will increase from a today’s
level of 57 TWh to at least 70 - 85 TWh in 2050. Dwelling houses and the vehicle
fleet have to undergo a complete transformation until 2050 if we want to reduce
energy consumption and lower CO2 emissions. Less heat consumption and more
heat pumps as well as natural gas and hydrogen engine drives for cars would be the
choice in the future.
xiv
Such a transformation comes at a cost; even intermediate steps are associated with
sizeable expenses. At an oil price of 75 US$2000/bbl in 2050, the additional costs to
reach a 3500-Watt society amount to about 20 billion US$2000 (~33 billion CHF2000). A
Kyoto-for-ever target (i.e. 5 % CO2 reduction per decade) costs about 15 billion
US$2000 (~25 billion CHF2000) or 5 billion US$2000 (~8 billion CHF2000) less. If a 10 %
CO2 reduction per decade is envisaged additional to the 3500 Watts per capita
target, the extra costs amount to about 40 billion US$2000 (~67 billion CHF2000),
despite potentially associated technological and cost synergies. If the main argument
in favour of the 3500-Watt society was CO2 reduction, then the PEC target is
questionable.
By following pure energy-efficiency strategies with the only objective to reduce the
PEC consumption, we do not meet up to possibly-desired climate-change strategies.
A moderate fossil import dependency and the enhanced use of renewable energies
are supported mainly by CO2 reduction targets. Despite the fact that this study shows
only potential cost-effective pathways but does not unfold necessary incentives of
how to adopt these pathways, the study clearly shows: The transition of the current
energy system is difficult and all targeted changes will not happen on their own. We
need goal-oriented measures from decision-makers such that people change their
behaviour and invest in more efficient and cleaner technologies rather sooner than
later.
Keywords: 2000-Watt society, MARKAL, Switzerland, energy, economy
xv
Kurzfassung
Eine nachhaltige Entwicklung des schweizerischen Energiesystems mit der Vision
einer 2000-Watt Gesellschaft könnte in der Zukunft von grossem Interesse sein. Die
Vision einer 2000-Watt Gesellschaft (also einer Gesellschaft mit einem
Primärenergieverbrauch von 2000 Watt pro Kopf) sollte idealerweise der Erreichung
mehrerer Ziele dienen: der Steigerung der Energieeffizienz des schweizerischen
Energiesektors, der Minderung der Abhängigkeit von fossilen Energieträgern und der
Unterstützung von erneuerbaren Energien und Klimaschutzzielen.
Die vorliegende Studie versucht, realistische Ziele für die Vision der 2000-Watt
Gesellschaft bis in das Jahr 2050 aufzuzeigen. Dazu werden verschiedene
Kombinationen von Primärenergie- und CO2-Minderungszielen untersucht, sowie
anfallende zusätzlichen Kosten berechnet, welche von der Gesellschaft für die
Erreichung eines jeden Zieles getragen werden müssen. Die Ergebnisse der
Dissertation wurden mit Hilfe des Energiesystemmodells Swiss MARKAL (MARKet
ALLocation) erarbeitet. Swiss MARKAL ist ein bottom-up (von unten nach oben
aufbauendes) Energiesystemmodell für die Schweiz. Es beinhaltet eine detaillierte
Abbildung von Energiebereitstellungs- und Energieverbrauchstechnologien, so dass
zukünftige Investitionen abgeschätzt werden können. Zudem bietet das Modell eine
ganzheitliche Bilanzierung von Primär-, Sekundär-, End- und
Nutzenergieverbräuchen für die gesamte Schweiz.
Die Analyse verdeutlicht, dass die 2000-Watt Gesellschaft nur als ein Langzeitziel
gesehen werden sollte. Im Jahr 2000 lag der Primärenergieverbrauch bei ca. 5000
Watt pro Person mit einem resultierenden energiebezogenen CO2-Ausstoss von 44.4
Mt. Unabhängig vom Ölpreis ist für alle untersuchten Szenarien eine
Verbrauchssenkung auf 3500 Watt möglich. Allerdings vermögen selbst starke
Primärenergieabsenkungen den CO2-Ausstoss nur um maximal 5 % pro Dekade zu
senken. Für stärkere CO2-Minderungsziele müssen diese explizit vorgegeben
werden. Wenn ausschliesslich CO2-Minderung als Ziel vorgegeben wird, senkt sich
der Primärenergieverbrauch, abhängig vom erwarteten Ölpreis im Jahr 2050,
lediglich auf 4900 bis 4500 Watt pro Person. Die Verfolgung von strikten CO2-Zielen
allein führt nicht zu der Erreichung des Ziels einer 2000-Watt Gesellschaft.
Die grössten Veränderungen in den untersuchten Szenarien betreffen sowohl
Energieumwandlungs- als auch Nutzenergietechnologien. In der Zukunft wird
xvi
Elektrizität eine immer wichtigere Rolle einnehmen. Die Produktion von Elektrizität
wird sich vom heutigen Niveau von ca. 57 TWh auf mindestens 70 – 85 TWh
steigern. Haushaltssektor und Fahrzeugflotte bedürfen einer vollständigen
Erneuerung, falls Energieverbrauch und CO2-Emissionen merklich gesenkt werden
sollen. Weiterhin sind die Reduzierung des Wärmebedarfs und der vermehrte
Einsatz von Wärmepumpen nötig. Auch die Nutzung von Erdgas- and
Wasserstoffautos wird in der Zukunft essentiell sein.
Jede umfassende Änderung des Energiesystems ist verbunden mit Kosten. Dazu
zählt auch eine schrittweise Annäherung an eine 2000-Watt Gesellschaft bis 2050.
Bei einem Ölpreis von 75 US$2000/bbl in 2050 betragen die Kosten ca. 20 Milliarden
US$2000 (~33 Milliarden CHF2000) um eine 3500-Watt Gesellschaft zu erzielen. Die
Kosten für ein Kyoto-für-immer Ziel (5 % CO2-Minderung pro Dekade) betragen im
Vergleich dazu nur ca. 15 Milliarden US$2000 (~25 Milliarden CHF2000), und sind damit
um 5 Milliarden US$2000 (~8 Milliarden CHF2000) geringer. Falls das übergreifende Ziel
ist, die CO2-Emissionen um 10 % pro Dekade zu senken und zudem eine 3500-Watt
Gesellschaft zu erreichen, liegen die Extrakosten bei ca. 40 Milliarden US$2000 (~67
Milliarden CHF2000), trotz potenzieller Technologie- und Kostensynergien. Somit ist
das Ziel der 3500-Watt Gesellschaft fragwürdig, falls das Hauptargument der
Primärenergiereduktion die Minimierung der CO2-Emission sein sollte.
Wenn Energieeffizienzmassenahmen mit dem alleinigem Ziel verbunden sind, die
Primärenergie zu senken, kommen wahrscheinlich wünschenswerte
Klimaschutzziele zu kurz. Moderate Importe von fossilen Energieträgern und die
verstärkte Nutzung von erneuerbaren Energien unterstützen CO2-Minderungsziele
erheblich. Obwohl die Studie nur potenzielle kosteneffektive Wege aufzeigt, ohne
nötige Anreize für diese Wege zu erörtern, wird dennoch ein Sachverhalt deutlich:
die Umwandlung des existierenden Energiesystems ist mit grossen
Herausforderungen verbunden. Zielgerichtete Umwandlungen werden nicht von
alleine passieren. Die Schweiz braucht daher genau diese zielgerichteten
Massnahmen ausgehend von Entscheidungsträgern, so dass die Bevölkerung Ihr
(Kauf-)verhalten ändert und in effizientere und saubere Technologien investiert. Je
früher Massnahmen in Angriff genommen werden, umso nachhaltiger werden die
Ergebnisse sein.
Stichwörter: 2000-Watt Gesellschaft, MARKAL, Schweiz, Energieökonomie
Introduction 1
1 Introduction
1.1 Motivation
In the last 50 years, an increasing demand for energy has boosted the consumption
especially of oil, natural gas and electricity drastically.[1] Besides all economical
benefits due to this high energy consumption, it also entailed several negative
aspects. Today, Switzerland is strongly dependent on imported fuels, which are
essential for today’s lifestyle. Many of those fuels are extracted in politically instable
countries e.g. Iran, Iraq or Saudi Arabia. Looking at the proved oil reserves, by far
most of them are located in Middle East countries.[2] Political tension could increase
and the question “who is eligible to use these resources” could probably be raised.
In 2002, Switzerland ratified the Kyoto protocol and committed to reduce CO2
emissions by 10 % of the 1990 levels by 2010.[3] Although the Swiss electricity
sector is basically CO2 free at the moment, other end-use sectors such as the
residential and transportation sectors emit significant amounts of CO2. Additionally,
due to probable strong demand increase of electricity, Switzerland is heading
towards an electricity gap around 2020.[4] If investments in fossil based electricity
plants cover this gap, CO2 is likely to increase further. If no measures are taken,
fulfilling the Kyoto and additional CO2 reduction targets will prove unlikely. The recent
IPCC report on climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability attracts major
international attention.[5] The report states: “Negative impacts [for Europe] will
include increased risk of inland flash floods, and more frequent coastal flooding and
increased erosion ... mountainous areas will face glacier retreat, reduced snow cover
and winter tourism, and extensive species losses.” The effect for Switzerland could
be dramatic if nothing will be done.[6]
Besides possible political tension and climate-change issues, the main question of a
globally fair-balanced energy consumption arises. Switzerland and to a large extend
the whole western world, currently uses much more energy than the world average.
On the one hand, the USA consume 12000 Watts per capita, Western-Europe 6000
Watts per capita and Switzerland still 5000 Watts per capita. On the other hand, in
Africa and in some Asian countries the PE consumption is less than 650 Watts per
capita.[7] Overall, 2000 Watts is the average world-wide energy consumption.
Therefore, many people claim that a 2000-Watt society should be seen as the long-
term goal to achieve a fair and sustainable development.[8]
Introduction 2
Controversial disputes will be ongoing. The focus could be on reducing energy
consumption by increasing the overall energy efficiency. The focus could also be on
lowering CO2 emissions by investing into renewable-energy technologies and
reducing the fossil import decency at the same time. It could also be on a
combination of targets. However, one fact is clear: Concrete measures have to be
taken if Switzerland wants to contribute to a clean and ecologically sustainable
environment. The challenge is to combine measures with a financially-flourishing
economy. Additional costs to undertake these measures need to be discussed
openly.
1.2 Scope of the analysis
This dissertation primarily aims at evaluating intermediate steps towards the 2000-
Watt society in Switzerland. The analysis quantifies possible reductions of primary-
energy per capita (PEC) use until 2050 and estimates the costs of such reduction
targets. Numerous energy balances and technological outlooks are documented:
• Primary energy per capita balances
• Final energy consumption balances by fuel and sector
• Residential heating technology projections
• Passenger car projections
• Electrical power station projections
• CO2 emissions projections
• Additional total system costs
Comprehensive sensitivity analyses has been performed to provide a full picture and
to test the robustness of the obtained results. The tested sensitivities comprise:
• Crude oil prices of 50 to 125 US$2000/bbl in the year 2050
• CO2 emission reduction targets of 5 and 10 % per decade, starting from the
Swiss-Kyoto target in 2010
• Discount rates of 3 and 5 %
• The influence of fuel-cell prices and stack sizes on hydrogen cars
• The influence of renewable energy-conversion equivalents on the production of
electricity
Introduction 3
• Comparison of the results to an analysis with an elastic demand responses
• Influence of oil prices and subsidies on the production of synthetic natural gas
(bio-SNG) from wood in a methanation plant
This dissertation conducts the first fully-integrated energy-system analysis (see
chapter 2), linking all Swiss energy sectors (energy production and energy-demand
sectors) in one modelling framework. Using this framework, the author analyses
various PEC reduction targets (including a combination of CO2 targets), derives all
energy and emissions balances and calculates the additional costs necessary to
change the structure and composition of the Swiss energy system.
1.3 Methodology
The questions surrounding the 2000-Watt society were addressed using a cost-
optimization modelling framework. A MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) model provides
this framework. It represents a bottom-up energy-systems model that provides a
detailed representation of energy supply and end-use technologies (see chapter 3).
The family of MARKAL models has been developed by the Energy Technology
Systems Analysis Programme (ETSAP) that was established as an Implementing
Agreement of the International Energy Agency (IEA).[9] It is well documented and
described by the following publications: [10-12]. MARKAL models have been applied
for several national and multi-national case studies.[13,14] The original version of the
Swiss MARKAL model (SMM) has first been developed as a joint effort between
Energy Economics Group (EEG) at the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI) and the
University of Geneva. Afterwards a number of improvements were implemented at
PSI. SMM has a time horizon of 50 years (from 2000 until 2050) with 5-year time
steps.
Due to the complexity of the task, the analysis was carried out step wise:
Step 1: Debugging and year-2000 calibration
The model was debugged, which included eliminating infeasibilities, linking
disconnected energy flows, removing non-existing energy flows and technologies,
etc. Primary and final-energy balances were recalibrated to official year-2000
statistics. The year 2000 is the base year of SMM (the starting year of the modelling
Introduction 4
framework). The year 2005, the second year of the modelling time horizon, has also
been calibrated to official statistics where and so far it was possible.
Step 2: General assumptions
General model assumptions were checked and overhauled where necessary. The
main assumptions include amongst others: Discount rates, potentials of energy
carriers, fuel and electricity imports and exports, population, GDP.
Step 3: Implementation of new biomass technologies
New biomass technologies were implemented into the modelling framework. As a
result, the assessment on the production of synthetic natural gas (bio-SNG) from
wood in a methanation plant was conducted.
Step 4: Renewal of the transportation and residential sector
The transportation and residential sectors were completely overhauled. In the first
phase two stand-alone models were developed before embedding them into the
SMM framework. The residential sector also includes demand reductions due to
energy-saving options (i.e. improved insulation of houses). The energy-saving
options were implemented in the model based on marginal-cost curves.
Step 5: Improved result evaluation
A modelling framework has been developed in VEDA and MATLAB to guarantee a
faster and more precise result evaluation.
Step 6: 2000-Watt society Analysis
The 2000-Watt society has been evaluated as a full-scale energy-system analysis.
1.4 Structure of the thesis
The document has been organised as follows. At first we define the objective of the
2000-Watt society and present a literature overview, before providing technical
background information. Afterwards we present all results of the analyses, and
summarize conclusions.
Introduction 5
Chapter 2: The 2000-Watt society
This chapter presents the definition and goals of the 2000-Watt society and explains
the importance of the concept. After providing a literature review, the chapter rounds
off by elaborating the 2000-Watt society from a today’s perspective.
Chapter 3: Defining the baseline
This chapter defines and elaborates the assumption of the “business-as-usual” or
baseline scenario. Additionally, it explains in detail how the transportation and
residential sectors are modelled and how energy-saving options were implemented in
SMM. It also provides a detailed overview of all relevant energy balances and CO2
emissions.
Chapter 4: Evaluating intermediate steps towards the 2000-Watt society
This chapter illustrates the main results of the document. It explains the result of the
2000-Watt society analysis, suggests a future technology mix in the year 2050 and
illustrates corresponding costs. The chapter contains an extensive sensitivity analysis
on various oil prices and CO2 targets.
Chapter 5: Complementary analyses
This chapter analyzes additional scenarios not yet covered in chapter 4. It presents
sensitivity analyses on discount rates, fuel cell prices and renewable energy-
conversion equivalents and evaluates the results using an elastic demand approach.
In that sense, the chapter fulfils the purpose of testing the robustness of the results.
Additionally it depicts an analysis assessing the production of synthetic natural gas
(bio-SNG) from wood in a methanation plant. The results of this analysis are
published in the journal ENERGY.[15]
Chapter 6: Conclusions and recommendations
This chapter draws conclusions based on all results evaluated within the scope of the
analysis and gives recommendations for the future development of the Swiss energy
system.
The 2000-Watt society 6
2 The 2000-Watt society
2.1 Description of the 2000-Watt society
In 1960, Switzerland was a 2000-Watt society. Today, more than four decades later,
the consumption has increased drastically. Due to all ecological and possible
economical (i.e. energy security) problems associated with a continuing increase of
energy consumption, important questions arise such as: What is a sustainable
energy consumption? How much energy should the developed world consume and
how much should developing countries consume to achieve an ecologically and
economically sustainable environment? One idea is to keep the total world wide
average energy consumption constant by achieving a (strong) economic
development at the same time. 2000 Watts is the average world-wide energy
consumption.[16]
The vision of a 2000-Watt society aims at consuming not more than 2000 Watts per
capita of primary energy (PE). In physics Watt is the unit of power and corresponds
to Joules (the SI unit1 of energy) per second. Therefore, the 2000 Watts target can
also be converted into an annual-energy consumption target or a consumption of
energy in a specific year. Assuming 365.25 days per year (including the leap year),
2000 Watts corresponds to 63.1 GJ per capita and year. What are the implications of
2000 Watts from a Swiss perspective? Given a population of 7.2 million for
Switzerland [18] and 366 days in the year 2000, 2000 Watts corresponded to 456 PJ
(per year) of PE. The Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SOFE) states a PE
consumption of 1132 PJ [1] (around 5000 Watts) in 2000. Therefore, for Switzerland
a 2000-Watt society implies to reduce the PE consumption by a factor of 2.5.
Figure 1 illustrates a possible pathway towards the 2000-Watt society in Switzerland
(the figure fulfils just an illustrative purpose).[7] The x-axis shows the time scale and
the y-axis the PE consumption per capita. In 2000, about 3000 Watts per capita
originate from fossil energy sources and 2000 Watts per capita from hydro power and
other renewable resources as well as nuclear fuels. From the middle of the last
century until now a large increase in consumption was typical for Switzerland,
comparable to the consumption of all developed countries. In the long-term the
present consumption might be seen as a peaking consumption. The vision is that due
1 International System of Units (SI is addreviated from the French Système international d'unités).[17]
The 2000-Watt society 7
to technological energy-efficiency improvements and fuel switching, the PE
consumption and especially its fossil share reduces significantly.
Figure 1: A possible development towards the 2000-Watt society.[7]
2.2 Literature review
This section presents overview of the most important literature about the 2000-Watt
society and closely related issues. Generally the present literature can be divided into
technical-feasibility studies and political scenario outlooks.
In 1985, Goldemberg et al. published a paper claiming that further living-standard
improvements are possible without increasing the per-capita use of energy above
present levels.[19] Having a focus on developing countries, they argued that for a PE
consumption of 1000 to 1200 Watts per capita, the “physical quality of life” could
reach the quality of industrialized countries if high-quality energy carriers and cost-
opportunities of more efficient technologies would be exploited. Further increases
would accomplish only marginal improvements of the quality. Compared to the
general assumption that energy consumption is the prerequisite for economic and
social development, Goldemberg opened ground for a highly controversial debated
issue. In 1994 and 1995, Goldemberg and Johansson also published reports about
“Energy as an Instrument for Socio-Economic Development” investigating “Energy
Needs for Sustainable Human Development”. They indicated that the vision of a
The 2000-Watt society 8
2000-Watt per capita society is likely to be technically (and eventually economically)
feasible.[20,21]
In 1997, von Weizsäcker et al. developed the formula „Factor 4“ as a new direction
for technological progress with the aim to double prosperity and to halve the resource
consumption in Germany.[22] Thereby, the efficient use of resources is the most
important instrument to achieve a sustainable development. This efficient use could
also be profitable to society. The book contains a variety of examples on how to
revolutionize productivity in the use of energy. It gives details how markets and taxes
can be organized to remove perverse incentives and to reward efficiency. The
benefits could be enormous.
A first onset to quantify possible PE scenarios in Switzerland was done by Kesselring
and Winter in 1994 taking up the term “2000-Watt society”.[23] They developed a first
technical-feasibility study with means of an energy-efficient transmission, minimizing
non-renewable and maximizing renewable energy sources. In 1998, the ETH-Rat2
postulated the idea of the 2000-Watt society emphasizing that such a society could
be achieved by the middle of the 21st century in Switzerland.[24] This was the starting
point for a number of analyses with a Swiss focus. The major analyses are briefly
described in the following paragraphs.
In 1999, the Swiss Academy of Engineering Science (SATW) analysed the possibility
of reducing the fossil energy consumption by 50 % compared to 1990 levels.[25] The
academy concluded that to reduce the consumption by 40 % until 2020 utilizing
energy-efficiency improvements is feasible. The reduction by 50 % would be possible
during the second half of the 21st century. In 2001, Spreng and Semadeni highlighted
the ecological and social aspects of a 2000-Watt society and defined the energy-
consumption per capita to be an indicator of sustainability.[26,27]
In 2002 and 2004 Jochem published two reports examining the question whether a
reduction of the per capita energy demand in Europe by two thirds is technically
feasible within 50 years, still achieving additional economic growth.[28,29] Enormous
efforts in R&D and a total turnover of the existing capital stock would be needed.
Technological progress and investments in low-energy houses, transportation and
2 The ETH Board is the strategic unit elected by the Swiss Federal Council to manage the ETH domain. It defines the domain's strategic direction and allocates the funding provided by the Swiss Confederation to the six institutions. The Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Zurich and Lausanne (ETHZ and EPFL), The Paul Scherrer Insitute (PSI), the Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL), the Swiss Federal Laboratries for Materials Testing and Research (EMPA) and Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology (Eawag) belong the the ETH domain.
The 2000-Watt society 9
power systems and industrial processes seem to be of major importance. In 2004,
other interesting studies were published in the context of a 2000-Watt society.
Marechal et al. [30] scrutinized “Energy in the Perspectives of a Sustainable
Development”, SATW [31] gave an outlook on renewable energy and EMPA on
reduction potentials of dwelling houses.[32]
In 2005, two important reports were published. In the energy-research strategy report
from Boulouchos et al., the authors acknowledged the 2000-Watt society as a
benchmark for sustainability. However, facing climate change, a per capita CO2
emission-reduction target would be more meaningful.[33] Koschenz and Pfeiffer
analysed the reduction potential in the residential sector in detail.[34] The authors
distinguish between realistic, ambitious and maximum-possible reductions in the
residential sector. While the total consumption by 2050 could be reduced by a factor
of 1.8 (44 %), 2.2 (55 %) and 5.1 (80%), respectively, the fossil consumption could
follow further reductions by a factor of 2.4 (85 %), 4.5 (78 %) and 14 (93 %),
respectively. Remarkably, neither Boulouchos et al. nor Koschenz and Pfeiffer
proposed specifically the year 2050 as the time horizon for the 2000-Watt society and
therefore support less ambitious targets than Jochem.
In the ETH annual report 2005 the 2000-Watt society is described as follows:
“Sustainability is the strategic target of energy research, as defined in the article on
energy in the Swiss Constitution. The associated vision of a 2000-Watt society
symbolizes the aspiration of achieving economic growth as planned, while using
distinctly less primary energy and clearly reducing CO2 emissions.”[35] The ETH-Rat
hopes that “the slogan of a 2000-Watt society ... will become engraved in people’s
minds and win them over to the long-term goal of reducing per capita energy
consumption to one third of today’s level, without lowering the standard of living.” In
this report a particular target date when the 2000-Watt society should be achieved is
not specified.
Of special importance is the Federal Energy Research Commission (CORE)3
roadmap from Bürer and Cremer. The report is a contribution to identifying promising
technologies in order to achieve the four objectives formulated by the Roadmaps
3 The Federal Energy Research Commission (CORE) acts as consultative body for the Federal Council and the Department of the Environment, Transport, Energy and Communications (DETEC). It defines the federal energy research concept, reviews and supports Swiss energy research programmes, comments on other energy research activities by the federal government and provides information concerning findings and developments in the area of energy research.[36]
The 2000-Watt society 10
Working Group4 in the context of the 2000-Watt society. It aims at supporting priority
setting in energy-research programmes and defines various possible futures for the
Swiss energy supply and demand by 2050.[37,38]
In 2006, additional relevant studies have been published. Most of them focused on
the residential sector. Worth mentioning are the dissertation from Kost about “Long-
term energy consumption and CO2 reduction potential in the Swiss residential sector”
[39] and the “Guidepost towards the 2000-Watt society” from Ellipson.[40] Kost
published his findings together with Siller and Imboden.[41] They conclude that
ambitious targets are necessary to reach the 2000-Watt society by 2050. In the
residential sector it is of foremost importance to reduce the specific heat demand of
existing buildings and to substitute heating and hot water systems by less carbon
intensive ones. Nevertheless, they argue that there might be more technical and
economical flexibilities than the 2000-Watt society if the target is to stabilize global
warming, due to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, at 2°C above pre-industrial
temperatures.
The question remains: What is the recommended approach of the Swiss Federal
Offices? The Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) has been publishing energy
perspectives in collaboration with external experts ever since the mid-1970s. Thereby
the aim has been to list options for planning a long-term and sustainable energy
policy that meets the principal requirements of supply security, protection of the
environment, economic viability and social acceptance.[42] In 2004, work has been
commenced on the preparation of so-called Energy Perspectives up to 2035.
Detailed results were published in a Management Summary at the end of February
2007.[43] Several accompanying documents to the final report (Scenarios I to IV,
economic impacts, analysis and evaluation of electricity supply and digressions) will
be published in the course of spring 2007. In particular, Scenario IV “Towards a
2000-Watt society” aims at reducing the PE consumption and strives for a reduction
of CO2 emission by half.[8] The results will be a basis for political debate on the
nature and content of Switzerland’s future energy and climate policies.[42]
4 The formulated objectives are a) no use of fossil fuels for heating requirements in the building sector b) a reduction of the energy consumption in the building sector by half c) an increase of the share of biomass in the energy supply while using its full ecological potential d) a reduction of the vehicle fleet’s average fossil fuel consumption down to 3 litres per 100 km.[37]
The 2000-Watt society 11
2.3 The 2000-Watt society from today’s perspective
From today’s perspective, it is still uncertain until when the vision of the 2000-Watt
society should be reached in Switzerland. However, it becomes more likely that the
formulation of the 2000-Watt society will include a combination of other targets. The
target of a 2000-Watt society alone probably comes too short when talking about
climate-policy issues because it does not distinguish between fossil and renewable
resources. In March 2007, the SFOE published the Swiss Federal Energy Research
Master Plan for the years 2008 to 2011.[44] This Master Plan, which could be seen
as the most prominent but non-binding energy plan, strives for the 2000-Watt society
as a prospective target in the second half of this century. Beside the target 2000
Watts, the plan also aims at the reduction of CO2 emission to an equivalent 1 ton per
person and year, similarly to the latest Energy Perspectives report (synthesis report
[45]) published in January 2007.
In the context of the 2000 Watts debate, one important issue was missing and is
addressed now. What are the additional costs to the society? Furthermore, all studies
published before are energy-sector specific or a combination of energy-sector
specific studies. This dissertation conducts a fully-integrated energy-system analysis
for the first time. Thereby, the author links all energy sectors (energy-production and
energy-demand sectors) using energy carriers (energy flows) in one modelling
framework. The interlinked energy sectors depict the energy system. Using this
framework, the author calculates concrete targets (including a combination of CO2
targets) for the year 2050 and derives the additional costs necessary to change to
structure and composition of the Swiss energy system. This way, the dissertation
enriches the existing literature on the 2000-Watt society.
2.4 Some energy definitions
For information purposes, energy (stored in energy carriers) can be classified into
different categories. The main categories are primary energy, final energy and useful
energy and are defined in [46].
Energy: Energy can be defined as the ability of a physical system to do work. Energy
can be stored in a system, transferred from one into another system or transformed
from one into another form. Energy cannot be created and energy cannot be
destroyed. The standard energy unit is Joule [J].
The 2000-Watt society 12
Energy carrier: A substance is considered an energy carrier if it stores energy that
can be used directly or after several conversion steps. For instance the energy
carrier coal can be burnt and the released heat transformed into electricity, which is
used in electrical devices.
Primary energy: The energy content of an energy carrier, which has not been
transformed in any way, for instance the energy content of crude oil in the ground
before any processing is done.
Final energy: The energy content an end-user obtains minus the non-energetic use,
the conversion losses and the own use in the conversion sector is defined as final
energy. In other words, it is the energy before the last transformation to its end use,
for instance the electricity needed to heat a room.
Useful energy: It is the energy an end-user needs for a specific purpose, for
instance the heat in a room or the lighting demand. Thus, it is the final energy minus
the transformation losses of end-use devices. Useful energy is sometimes also called
energy service.
Defining the baseline 13
3 Defining the baseline
3.1 Structure and main assumptions of the Swiss-MARKAL model
(SMM)
This dissertation analyzes the Swiss energy-system for the 2000-Watt society using
the Swiss-MARKAL model (SMM). SMM is a bottom-up energy-systems model that
provides a detailed representation of energy supply and end-use technologies. In this
section we describe the structure of the Swiss energy-system as it is modelled in
SMM and elaborate the main assumption needed to understand the model results.
Thereby, a special emphasis is put on the residential and transportation sector.
Oil
Natural Gas
Biomass
Other Renewables
Uranium
Coal
Refinery
Power Plants
Hydrogen Production
Heat Plants
Fischer-Tropsch
T&DCompressed Nat. Gas
Nat. GasBiomass
Residential(heating, lighting
cooking, appliances, etc)
Commercial/Services(heating, lighting,
appliances, etc)
IndustrialSector
Nat. Gas
Biomass
T&D
T&D
T&D
T&D
T&D
T&D
Transport(Cars, trucks,
railways, aircraft,etc)
Methanation,etc
T&D
AgricultureSector
Hydro
T&D
Figure 2: A simplified version of the Reference Energy System (RES) used in the energy-system Swiss-MARKAL
model. T&D is an abbreviation for transmission and distribution.
The backbone of the MARKAL modelling approach is the so-called Reference
Energy System (RES). The RES represents currently available and possible future
energy technologies and energy carriers. From the RES, the optimization model
chooses the least-cost energy-system, representing energy technologies and flows
for a given time horizon and given end-use energy demands. Figure 2 presents a
simplified version of the RES used in the SMM model. It illustrates energy flows in
Switzerland from production to the end-uses. Five main end-use sectors have been
Defining the baseline 14
considered, namely agriculture, commercial, industrial, residential and transportation.
All sectors are partitioned into sub-categories representing specific uses. The specific
uses are for example heating, domestic appliances and transportation modes. For
the purpose of simplicity, only the most relevant technologies and flows represented
in the model are included in Figure 2.
In following paragraphs we describe the main model assumptions. In this analysis, a
time horizon of 50 years (from 2000 until 2050) with five-year time steps has been
chosen. For the baseline scenario a discount rate of 3 % is used in all calculations (a
discount-rate sensitivity analysis is conducted in an additional section). The currency
units used in this report are US dollars of the year 2000 [US$2000]. Costs and
potential of resources as well as costs, potential and technical characteristics of the
technologies are time dependent. Overall, the base year of the model has been
calibrated to officially published Swiss energy statistics [1,47,48] and to IEA statistics
[49] of the year 2000, respectively. The statistics are choosen depending on the
quality and the level of detail of the obtained data.
The population projection used in our scenarios correspond to the scenario ‘A-Trend’
reported by [18]. It is based on a continuation of recent historical trends and middle
values for fertility rates, immigration flows and life expectancy. In ‘A-Trend’ scenario,
the population of Switzerland increases from about 7.2 million inhabitants in 2000 to
about 7.4 million inhabitants in 2030. Afterwards, the population experiences a slight
decline reaching about 7.1 million inhabitants in 2050. The GDP projection used here
corresponds to the scenario reported by [50]. The GDP is assumed to increase by
nearly 50 % from the year 2000 to the year 2050.
Another important assumption concerns the prices of oil and natural gas resources
for which moderate increments are assumed in the first half of the 21st century in this
scenario (see Table 1). The crude oil price is assumed to constantly increase from
4.6 US$2000/GJ (equivalent to 29US$2000/bbl) in the year 2000 to 8 US$2000/GJ
(equivalent to 50 US$2000/bbl) in the year 20505. Natural gas is assumed to be linked
to the crude oil price. Hence the price increases from 3.3 US$2000/GJ in the year 2000
to 5.7 US$2000/GJ in the year 20506. Given the large uncertainty that surrounds the
development of the price of fossil energy resources, a sensitivity analysis needs to be
5 In the model crude oil is refined among others to diesel, gasoline, kerosene, and heavy fuel oil. To calculate the end-user price for crude oil products additional variable cost for the operation of the refinery of 2.3 US$2000/GJ and the distribution costs for diesel and gasoline of 1.23 US$2000/GJ have to be added. 6 The transmission cost of natural gas are assumed to be 1.00 US$2000/GJ.
Defining the baseline 15
conducted for most results. Moreover, two important assumptions relate to the
distribution of costs and taxes. The model includes distribution costs for all fossil
recourses. However, the model does not contain taxes for any fuel use. The
implication of this assumption is explained in chapter section 5.5 where subsidies are
used as a policy measure.
Table 1: Prices for fossil energy resources as assumed in this study. For a better understanding, the oil price is
given both in US$/GJ and in US$/bbl.
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Natural Gas (US$/GJ)
3.3 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.3 4.5 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.5 5.7
Crude Oil (US$/GJ)
4.6 5.0 5.3 5.6 6.0 6.3 6.7 7.0 7.3 7.7 8.0
Crude Oil (US$/bbl)
29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 50
3.2 Renewable energy potential and nuclear energy
When it comes to the projection of the future energy consumption, it is of major
importance to define reliable renewable energy potentials. In 2005, the Paul Scherrer
Institute (PSI) published a report for the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE),
estimating cost and potentials of new renewable energies in Switzerland [51]. The
renewable energy supply options7 considered in the report were defined by SFOE
according to their future importance. The renewable technologies and their
corresponding potential investigated are: small hydro, wind energy, photovoltaics,
solar thermal and solar chemical generation, geothermal and wave power. Generally
speaking, the renewable potential in Switzerland is very large in comparison to the
energy demand. However, this is rather based on theoretical (maximum available
resources) than on technical and economical grounds. Therefore, in the following
paragraphs we provide estimations on the technical potential of renewable energy
sources.
Electricity generation from small hydro power poses an economical and ecological
interesting option. However, the questions about the maximum hydro-power potential
is complex to answer. They comprise issues such as the physical potential along a
river, hydro-power plants worthy to be upgraded, potential (but not yet built) power
stations, etc. Presently about 3400 GWh/yr (12.2 PJ) electricity is generated from
small hydro power stations (<10 MW). This could be raised to 5600 GWh/yr (20.2 PJ)
7 The options considered in the report refer to potential to produce electricity. However, especially the theoretical potential for biomass refers to the total potential, which can also be utilized by other non-electricity production options.
Defining the baseline 16
in the year 2050 for an average generation cost of about 10-25 Rp/kWh
(1 € = 155 Rp). The maximum technically realistic achievable potential for water
purification and wastewater plants is fairly small. Their additional potential is around
155 GWh/yr (0.6 PJ). In recent decades there have been many studies about the
total unused potentials of hydro power including large hydro power stations (>10
MW). The latest study was published by SFOE in 2004.[52] The study sees a total
potential for additional expansion of 7570 GWh/yr, or about 14 % of the total present
electricity production.
The current use of wind power is negligible in Switzerland, about 2.98 GWh/yr
(0.01 PJ) in 2000. However, various studies have shown that the realistic technical
potential from wind parks is around 1150 GWh/yr (4.1 PJ) by 2050, divided into 96
locations. Additionally individual turbines could produce 2850 GWh/yr (10.3 PJ).
Whereas present generation cost of wind power plants are between 12-15 Rp/kWh, a
cost reduction to 11.6-13.8 Rp/kWh may be expected by 2050. Compared to other
renewable energies wind power undergoes regular recurring objection based on
protection of landscape and nature claims.
The available wood potentials may be estimated in many ways, for example by
establishing the theoretical8 or ecological9 potentials. In this report we have used the
theoretical-potential approach corresponding to the ‘A’ category (natural-wood
assortments from forestry including hedges and biomass from fruit-growing10).[53]
Hence, in the year 2000 we assume the total wood potential to be in the range of 96
PJ/year, and rising to about 103 PJ/year by the end of the analysis timeframe 205011.
In order to better represent the real market conditions, following literature source [53],
we have assumed that the wood price is dependent on its availability. In SMM we
modelled three price categories ‘high price’, ‘medium price’ and ‘low price’ In the year
2000 the medium price for wood is 5.23 US$2000/GJ, the low and high price is
respecticely 10 % lower and higher. Therefore, an increasing demand for wood
consequently raises its price, as soon as the feedstock of e.g. low-priced wood is
exhausted. Low price and high price biomass make up 40 % of wood available (equal
8 The theoretical potential is defined in [53] as ‘based on wood grown in productive land surfaces and residues from secondary production and human consumption that be reutilized’. 9 The ecological potential is defined in [53] as ‘ecological net-production potential respectively the share of biomass that can be used for energetic treatment without material utilization’. 10 In [53] natural wood assortments from forestry, including hedges and biomass from fruit-growing, are described in the category ‘Waldholz, Feldgehölze, Hecken’. 11 [54] considers the total energetic biomass potential to be 180 PJ in Switzerland. Hence the potential we use in this report is a rather conservative assumption.
Defining the baseline 17
shares). The medium-priced wood is available for the remaining potentital of 60 % in
Switzerland.
In recent years the photovoltaic capacity has grown by 15.3 % per year. At the end of
2003, the total installed capacity was about 21 MW. However, in future times the
potential will be limited by the availability of roof-surfaces and the increased
construction times. Due to those two limitations, for the report we only assume the
technical available potential for very well suited roofs (quality factor > 90 %), which
adds up to a maximum of 13.7 TWh/yr (49.3 PJ).
Switzerland has a large potential for geothermal energy from deep hot rock.
However, to estimate the technical potential we need to reduce the uncertainties
concerning the quality of the geothermal resource and the cost of drilling and the cost
of generating electricity and heat. SFOE is currently developing a “Deep Heat Mining”
in Basel with a thermal capacity of 20 MW, an annual electricity production of
20 GWh and an annual heat production of 80 GWh. A similar project is planned for
Geneva but exact potential estimations do not exist so far. Therefore, in the course of
this study we assume a conservative (and quite uncertain) potential of about
1388 GWh/a or about 5 PJ in 2050. However, possible earthquakes like in Basel may
pose certain threads to geothermal projects in Switzerland.[55]
Other important elements of our scenarios are related to the future role of nuclear
power plants within the Swiss energy system and electricity imports. In this scenario,
we have assumed that the electricity generation from nuclear power plants remains
at maximum at its year-2000 levels for the entire time horizon. The generation of
electricity could be lower but can not be higher. This presupposes a possible
replacement of nuclear plants scheduled to be decommissioned in the next decades
but it does not assume the introduction of any new nuclear power plants. It must be
recognized, however, that the future role of nuclear energy in Switzerland will
depend, among other factors, on addressing the issues of higher nuclear safety,
disposal of nuclear waste, proliferation resistance of fuel and public acceptance and
the related political decisions on these topics. As for the imports and exports of
electricity, we have assumed that from the year 2010 onwards exports will become
equal to imports. Under this assumption, Switzerland remains independent from
neighbouring EU countries in terms of its electricity supply in the long-term.
Defining the baseline 18
3.3 Energy and emission balances of the baseline scenario
In order to give an adequate context to our analysis we describe the main
characteristics of the baseline scenario in this section. Scenarios in general can be
refered to as alternative images of how the future might unfold. They are an
appropriate tool to analyze how driving forces may influence future outcomes and to
assess the associated uncertainties.[56] The baseline scenario portrayed here
depicts future trends in the energy system of Switzerland without any radical political,
technical or social change. In this sense, it represents a plausible middle-of-the-road
development of the Swiss energy system. In addition to the baseline scenario, we
analyse complementary scenarios in the next chapters. In these complementary
scenarios we assign different values for key variables such as oil and gas import
prices and introduce CO2 or primary energy constraints, among others. On the one
hand, they help examining the impact of uncertainties in baseline assumptions and,
one the other hand, they allow conducting what-if analysis. Hence, they give
assistance to a decision-making process. In the following paragraphs we give insight
to the trends in primary, final and electric-energy consumption and the CO2
emissions in the baseline scenario.
3.3.1 Primary-energy balances
Figure 3 represents the primary energy consumption in Switzerland for the baseline
scenario up to the year 2050. In the figure, the efficiency of a hydro power plant is
assumed to be 80 % and the efficiency of a nuclear power plant is assumed to
remain constant at 33 %. These values correspond to those used by the Swiss
energy statistics for the computation of the primary-energy equivalent of the
electricity generation of these two technologies.[1] Although electricity is not a
primary-energy source, the graph includes the net imports (i.e. imports minus
exports) of electricity to Switzerland to account for the completeness.
Defining the baseline 19
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Pri
ma
ry E
ne
rgy
Co
ns
um
pti
on
[P
J]
ElectricityRenewablesHydro PowerNuclear PowerGasOilCoal
Energy carriers:
Figure 3: Primary-energy consumption in the baseline scenario for the period 2000 to 2050.
In this baseline scenario, primary energy consumption remains relatively stable at
around 1200 PJ over the time horizon, slightly decreasing towards the year 2050. Oil
continues to hold an important share of the Swiss primary energy mix but its
consumption experiences a sizeable decline due to the increasing oil price and
efficiency improvements in the transportation sector. Natural gas, on the other hand,
experiences a significant increase. The contribution of nuclear energy and hydro
power remain approximately constant. Other renewable energy sources play only a
modest role in this scenario.
Figure 4 shows the primary energy per capita consumption. Literature values are
presented for the years 1910 until 2000 and baseline projections for the years 2000
until 2050. Until the year 1950, the per capita consumption was very stable at around
1000 W/cap. From 1950 until 1985, we can see a strong increase in the per capita
consumption to nearly 4700 W/cap. After the year 1985, a stabilisation of the strong
increase is noticeable; the per capita consumption only increases moderately
thereafter. This trend is confirmed by the baseline projection of SMM. In the year
2050, we reach a per capita consumption of about 5300 W/cap for the baseline-
scenario projection.
Defining the baseline 20
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Pri
mary
En
erg
y C
on
su
mp
tio
n p
er
Cap
ita [
Watt
/Cap
ita]
Literature values Baseline projection
Figure 4: Primary-energy per capita consumption for the period 1910 to 2050. The figure shows literature
values [18,57,58] for the time period 1910 until 2000 and values of the baseline projection for the time period
2000 until 2050.
3.3.2 Final-energy balances
The final-energy consumption of the base year has been calibrated to officially
published Swiss energy statistics [1] and to IEA statistics [49] of the year 2000,
respectively, depending on the quality of the obtained data. Relevant statistics as
well as the model calibration for final-energy consumption of the year 2000 are
presented in the appendix 4.
Figure 5 and Figure 6 show the final-energy consumption by sectors and by energy
carriers for the baseline scenario.12 The total final-energy consumption increases
only marginally from about 885 PJ in 2000 to about 925 PJ in 2050. Oil products,
natural gas and electricity dominate the final-energy mix over the whole time horizon.
While natural gas and electricity increase in absolute terms, the overall consumption
of oil products reduces over time. The consumption of biomass and waste remains
stable over the time horizon. Other energy carriers play a minor role in the primary
energy mix. In terms of sectors, the largest consumer of final energy remains the
transportation sector. The share of this sector in the final-energy consumption of
12 Final energy is defined as the energy that is available to the consumer.
Defining the baseline 21
Switzerland amounts to approximately 32% in the year 2050. Overall the sector
consumption remains at constant levels in the baseline scenario.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Fin
al
En
erg
y C
on
su
mp
tio
n [
PJ]
Other RenwablesWasteDistrict heatWoodCoalGasOil ProductsElectricity
Energy carriers:
Figure 5: Final-energy consumption by energy carriers in the baseline scenario for the period 2000 to 2050.
Note that in the figure Other Renewables refer to the use of solar energy, biogas and
ambient heat following [1]. Non-energy use covers use of other petroleum products
such as white spirit, paraffin waxes, lubricants, bitumen and other products. It also
includes the non-energy use of coal (excluding peat). These products are shown
separately in final consumption under the heading non-energy use. It is assumed that
the use of these products is exclusively non-energy use. Other non-specified
includes all fuel use not elsewhere specified (e.g. military fuel consumption with the
exception of transport fuels in international marine bunkers and consumption in the
above-designated categories for which separate figures have not been provided).
[59]
Defining the baseline 22
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Fin
al
En
erg
y C
on
su
mp
tio
n [
PJ]
IndustryTransportationResidentialCommercialAgricultureNon-Energy UseOther non-specified
Sectors:
Figure 6: Final-energy consumption by sectors in the baseline scenario for the period 2000 to 2050.
3.3.3 Electricity production and consumption
Figure 7 presents the electricity generation mix under the baseline scenario. 13 Net
imports of electricity are included (negative values mean that Switzerland is exporting
electricity).14 With the assumptions made in this scenario, no major structural
changes in electricity generation take place during the first half of the 21st century.
Electricity generation grows gradually and remains largely CO2-free. Conventional
nuclear and hydro power plants provide the bulk share of production. Nuclear-based
electricity production remains at the year-2000 levels over the whole time horizon.15
This implies a replacement or life extension of the nuclear power plants expected to
be decommissioned in the coming decades. Hydroelectric generation, on the other
hand, experiences an increase, mainly due to the tapping of the available small hydro
potential.16 Natural gas-based cogeneration facilities and wind turbines make some
13 The category ‘Conventional Thermal and Others’ includes non-hydro electricity auto-production from the railways system and the industry.[60] Hydro-based auto-production from the railways system and the industry is included under the category “Hydro Power”.[60] 14 Our analysis assumes that in the long term net imports/exports of electricity are reduced to zero. 15 In this scenario, an upper bound on electricity generation from nuclear power has been imposed. At most, the electricity production levels of the year 2000 can be reached. 16 [51] estimates that the additional potential for small hydro power plants in Switzerland amounts to approximately 5.6 TWh/year.
Defining the baseline 23
inroads towards the end of the time horizon but they remain minor contributors to the
Swiss electricity generation mix.
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Ele
ctr
icit
y P
rod
ucti
on
[T
Wh
/year]
Wind TurbinesBiomass CogenerationNatural Gas CogenerationConventional Thermal and OthersHydro PowerNuclear PowerNet Imports
Electricity production technologies:
Figure 7: Electricity production in the baseline scenario for the time period 2000 to 2050.
Figure 8 shows the correlation between electricity consumption and GDP for the time
period from 1980 to 2050, whereby the time period from 1980 to 2000 reflects
statistical values and the time period from 2000 to 2050 SMM values of the baseline
scenario. This correlation is based on the assumption that the energy demand is
equal to the GDP to the power of α . In a linearized form this can be expressed as
)ln()ln( GDPndEnergyDema ⋅= α or bxy +⋅= α . Thereby, α represents the gradient
of slope or the income elasticity of demand (for electricity). If α is 1 GPD is directly
proportional to the electricity consumption. If α greater than 1 the electricity demand
increases faster than GPD and if it is smaller the electricity demand increases slower.
The figure is divided into a left part, representing historic literature values, and a right
part, representing the baseline energy consumption (baseline projection) of
Switzerland. The historic as well as the projected GPD is taken from the Swiss
Federal Statistical Office.[61] Having some fluctuations for the α values for certain
time periods, overall the figure shows a relative constant slope. Despite an indicated
decline of the slope after the year 2040, the income elasticity of electricity demand is
around one. Note, that this fit is used as a qualitative trend assessment without
considering price effects and price elasticises with natural gas and oil.
Defining the baseline 24
y = 1.2326x - 10.651
y = 0.8847x - 6.2065
y = 0.9948x - 7.6192
y = 0.7938x - 5.0045
y = 1.2076x - 10.445y = 0.6141x - 2.6081
y = 0.3397x + 1.0283
4.8
4.9
5.0
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.5
5.6
12.5 12.6 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.4
1980-1990
1990-2000
2000-2010
2010-2020
2020-2030
2030-2040
2040-2050
ln (electricity demand)
ln (GDP)
Literature values Baseline projection
Literature values
Literature values
Baseline projection
Baseline projection
Baseline projection
Baseline projection
Baseline projection
Time periods:
Figure 8: Correlation between electricity consumption and GDP for the time period 1980 to 2050. The time
period 1980 to 2000 reflects literature values [57,58,61] and the time period 2000 to 2050 SMM values of the
baseline-scenario projection.
3.3.4 CO2 emissions
In this baseline scenario, the total energy-related CO2 emissions are reduced from
about 44.8 million tons of CO2 (Mt) in the year 2000 to 42.6 Mt of CO2 in the year
2050 (see Figure 9). This small reduction is mainly due to changes in the Swiss
energy system, triggered by the sustained increasing oil price signal. Note, however,
that the effects of the oil price alone do not lead to any substantial reduction in CO2
emissions. The emission shares of the various sectors stay relatively constant. The
transportation sector is by far the largest CO2 polluter, followed by the residential
sector. The one sector with increasing CO2 emissions is the electricity sector.
Because of the cap on nuclear energy, increasing demand for electricity is covered
by natural gas CHP plants. The Swiss CO2 law and the achievement of the Swiss
Kyoto targets have not been considered in this baseline scenario.
Defining the baseline 25
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
CO
2 E
mis
sio
n [
Mt] Transport
ResidentialIndustryCommercialAgricultureUpstreamElectricity
Sectors:
Figure 9: Energy-related CO2 emissions per sector in Switzerland for the period 2000 to 2050 in the baseline
scenario.
3.4 Description of the residential sector
The residential sector is a central end-use energy sector in Switzerland when it
comes to final-energy consumption and energy-saving potentials. With a final-energy
consumption of more than 230 PJ in the year 2000, the sector is the second largest
energy consumer after the transportation sector. The biggest challenge in the
residential sector is the long life-time of the building stock. Once a building has been
refurbished or built, it takes several decades before new investments in
refurbishment (e.g. advanced energy-saving insulation-measures or heating
systems) will possibly be made. Therefore, when it comes to reducing energy
consumption, it is most important to combine refurbishment actions with actions
directly related to energy-saving measures.
In total we distinguish 13 demand segments in the residential sector, see Table 2.
The most important segment in terms of energy consumption is ‘Residential Heating’
(RH). RH is a special category due to the complexity of energy saving potentials.
This is why we divided the segment into four separate demand segments: Single and
Multi Family Houses (SFH and MFH) for existing and new buildings. In the model we
refer to dwellings constructed before the year 2000 as existing buildings, and
Defining the baseline 26
dwellings constructed after the year 2000 as new buildings. For our modelling
exercise this differentiation provides a detailed representation of the RH sector.17
Table 2: Demand segments of the residential sector.
Description Abbreviation
Cooling RC1
Cloth Drying RCD
Cloth Washing RCW
Dish Washing RDW
Other Electric18
REA
Room-Heating Single-Family Houses (SFH) existing building RH1
Room-Heating Single-Family Houses (SFH) new building RH2
Room-Heating Multi-Family Houses (MFH) existing buildings RH3
Room-Heating Multi-Family Houses (MFH) new buildings RH4
Hot Water RHW
Cooking RK1
Lighting RL1
Refrigeration RRF
3.4.1 Base year calibration
Table 3 shows the final-energy consumption of each residential demand segment for
the year 2000 as it is modelled in SMM and compares it to International Energy
Agency (IEA) and the Swiss Overall Energy statistics (GEST)19. The model
calculates a total final-energy consumption of 232.1 PJ. According to IEA statistics
for the year 2000, 234.6 PJ of final energy was consumed in the residential sector of
Switzerland. This value is of the same magnitude as the consumption in GEST.
GEST state a final energy consumption of 230.6 PJ.20 Based on the total final-energy
consumption and consumption shares taken from [62] and [63], the final-energy
consumption of each demand segment is calculated.
Table 3: Final-energy consumption 2000 in [PJ] – split by demand segments and fuels.
Description Model Code
Coal Oil
Products Gas Biomass
Other Renewables
Electricity Heat Total
Cooling RC1 1.8 1.8
Cloth Drying RCD 1.4 1.4
Cloth Washing RCW 4.6 4.6
Dish Washing RDW 1.7 1.7
Other Electric REA 11.5 11.5
Heating SFH exiting RH1 0.2 50.5 15.1 3.8 1.5 7.7 78.8
17 In reality existing buildings represent a manifold building stock with various insulation qualities (building code). For instance, dwellings constructed 50 years ago have less thermal insulation compared to dwellings constructed 10 years ago. New buildings in 10 years time will also be constructed with improved insulation thicknesses depending on the investor’s willingness and possibilities to pay. 18 The demand segment Other Electric represents devices such as television sets, computers, stereos sets, etc. 19 GEST is the abbreviation for Schweizerische Gesamtenergiestatik (Swiss Overall Energy Statistics). 20 This corresponds to 240 PJ with adjustments for heating degree days.
Defining the baseline 27
buildings
Heating MFH existing buildings
RH3 0.2 56.9 17.1 4.3 1.7 4.3 4.3 88.9
Hot Water RHW 14.0 5.1 0.4 0.2 6.9 0.8 27.4
Cooking RK1 0.6 0.1 5.3 6.0
Lighting RL1 5.6 5.6
Refrigeration RRF 4.4 4.4
MARKAL Total 0.4 121.5 37.9 8.5 3.5 55.1 5.1 232.1
GEST Total 0.1 121.0 36.3 8.6 3.4 56.6 4.6 230.6
IEA Total 0.4 124.3 36.3 8.8 3.5 56.6 4.6 234.6
References: [1], [62], [49], [63]
As can be seen in the table, space heating (Heating) is the sub-sector with the by far
highest final-energy demand, consuming more than 70 % of the total final energy.
The second largest sector is hot water, followed by other electrical devices. Looking
at the fuel consumption, the residential sector is highly dependent on fossil fuels. Oil
and gas products nearly provide 70 % of the total final-energy consumed. Space
heating and hot water are the main consumers of fossil products, whereas all other
demand segments mainly consume electricity. Looking at the 2000-Watt society, the
main goal is to reduce the high dependency of oil and gas products and to install
energy-saving measures to reduce the space heating demand.
3.4.2 Future projection
In this section, we illustrate information important to understand the future energy
consumption of the residential sector. Special emphasis is put on the demand
segment Residential Heating (RH). In detail, the section describes the future
residential heating technologies, demand projections and the implementation of
energy saving options. Additionally the section focuses on other than RH demand
projections and provides a final-energy consumption overview.
3.4.2.1 Residential-heating technologies
Table 4 portrays all heating technologies optional in the model. We decided to
provide an as large variety of heating technologies as possible.
Table 4 shows the heating technologies available for every heating demand segment
(RH1 to RH4 – see Table 3). Note that district-heating technologies are limited to
MFH since their application to SFH in the Swiss context appears to be rather small. A
detailed technology description can be found in the appendix 1.
Defining the baseline 28
Table 4: Future heating technologies.
RH1 RH2 RH3 RH4
Biomass (Wood)21
� � � �
Oil � � � �
Natural Gas � � � �
Heat Pump – Sole � � � �
Oil Solar � � � �
Natural Gas Solar � � � �
Pellets � � � �
Heat Pump – Air � � � �
Pellets – Solar � � � �
Heat Pump – Water � � � �
District Heat � �
3.4.2.2 Demand projection of the residential-heating sector
As mentioned above, in SMM we distinguish 14 different demand segments. In this
section we focus on the four most important demand segments, the RH demands.
RH is separated into SFH and MFH as well as existing and new buildings. In the
model we refer to dwellings constructed before the year 2000 as existing buildings
and dwellings constructed after the year 2000 as new buildings. Assuming future
specific RH demands and Energy Reference Floor Areas (ERFA)22, the absolute
demand values for space heating can be projected using the general formula:
[ ] [ ] [ ]22// mMioERFAamMJDemandHeatingRoomSpecificaTJEnergyUsefulDemand ⋅==
A first estimation of ERFA was done by Wüest & Partner in the year 1994 [65] (see
[32]). In recent years this projection has been updated several times [32]. In order to
estimate ERFA projections several sources tried to link construction investments with
the economic situation and the population development [62,66]. Figure 10 shows the
latest ERFA projection including extrapolations by the author (PSI Projection). The
author’s projections were necessary because all literature references available only
provide ERFA values up to the year 2035, while SMM analyses future scenarios until
2050.
21 Biomass (wood) is a aggregation for Chemineés fireplaces and other stoves, such as tiled stove. Residential heating systems based on pellet firing are aggregated in a separate category. 22 ERFA is defined in SIA 380/1 as the sum of all overground and subsurface floor areas subject to heating and air-conditioning.[64]
Defining the baseline 29
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
[Mio
m2]
Prognos 2005 PSI Projection BFE 2002
Figure 10: ERFA comparison.
References: [62], [66], [67], [68], author’s assumptions
Existing buildings:
As described above, the model defines four RH demands for existing and new
buildings. In order to project the future ERFA for existing buildings, base year
demand splits of SFH and MFH, specific RH demands and demolition rates are
assumed. In the year 2000 we assume that 46 % of the total ERFA belongs to SFH
and 54 % to MFH (based on [69]), which results in 187 [Mio m2] ERFA for SFH and
222 [Mio m2] for MFH. To calculate the energy demand of existing buildings, the
ERFA of each house type (SFH and MFH) has to be multiplied with the specific RH
demand [MJ/m2]. [69] assumes a specific RH demand of 384 [MJ/m2] for SFH and of
364 [MJ/m2] for MFH in the year 2000. Taking these assumptions into account, we
calculate an energy demand of 72 [PJ/a] for SFH and of 80 [PJ/a] for MFH in 2000.
Furthermore, we assume that the specific RH demand of existing remains constant
over the whole time horizon in the reference scenario. The model is then able to
implement energetic improvements depending on the constrained scenarios. Hence,
energetic improvements of the annual energy consumption of each house are fully
covered by the energy-saving options described below. Due to the future demolition
Defining the baseline 30
rates, the demand decreases to 70 [PJ/a] and 74 [PJ/a] respectively until 2050, see
Figure 12. The splits and the demolition rates are assumed by [63] and [69]. The
demolition rates and the resulting ERFA for exiting buildings are both depicted in
Figure 11.
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
RH1 RH3 RH1 Projection RH3 Projection
Demolition Rate of Existing Buildings.
Reference: [69] and own calculations
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
250
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
[M
io m
2]
RH1 RH3
ERFA Existing Buildings.
Reference: [69] and own calculations
Figure 11: Demolition rate and ERFA existing buildings. 23
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
[PJ/a
]
RH1 RH3
Figure 12: Energy demand existing buildings SFH (RH1) and MFH (RH3).
23 RH1 refers to SFH and RH3 to MFH.
Defining the baseline 31
New buildings
To estimate demand projections for new buildings, we need to predict ERFA values
and specific RH demands for SFH and MFH new buildings. To calculate these values
a different approach is required than it is used for existing buildings. A subtraction of
the total ERFA (Figure 10) from the future ERFA for existing buildings (Figure 11)
provides the ERFA of new buildings. The result of this calculation is displayed in
Figure 13. For new buildings the demolition rate is very small, less than 1 % in 50
years. Hence, for simplification we assumed that all newly constructed buildings have
a life time of at least 50 years. Considering the time horizon of 50 years of SMM, the
error from this simplification is negligible.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
[Mio
m2]
RH2 RH4
Figure 13: ERFA new buildings SFH (RH2) and MFH (RH4).
Several references are available, which describe the development of specific RH
demands [MJ/m2] of new buildings ([62], [67], [32], [64], [70] and [71]). Following [62]
with additional assumptions made by the author, we obtain average specific RH
demands for SFH and MFH (see Figure 14) built in the future. The average specific
RH demand in this figure relates to a newly constructed house at the period of time
indicated in the figure. The values do not relate to the specific vintaged demand of all
new buildings in a future period. The specific vintaged demand would refer to a
Defining the baseline 32
mixture of new buildings constructed prior to a certain period of time t-1 and the
newly constructed buildings at that period of time t.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
[MJ/m
2a] RH2
RH2 ProjectionRH4RH4 Projection
Figure 14: Average specific room-heating demand of new buildings built in a future period of time.
References: [62], own assumptions
The energy demand of new buildings is calculated according to the following formula:
20502005)( 11 ≤≤∀+−⋅= −− tDMDERFAERFASDDMD ttttt
DMD: Demand of New Buildings
SD: Specific Room Heating Demand
ERFA: Energy Reference Floor Area
t: Time Period
Using this formula we estimate the room heating demand of new buildings, displayed
in Figure 15.
Defining the baseline 33
0
5
10
15
20
25
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
[PJ/a
]
RH2 RH4
Figure 15: Room-heating demand new buildings energy saving options.
3.4.2.3 Implementation of energy-saving measures
Marginal Conservation Cost curves for the Swiss RH sector were first developed by
Jakob and Jochem [67,72] and made available to PSI for this study. Marginal Costs
(MC) describe the additional prices for better sealed insulations and the unit of the
corresponding energy efficiency yield. In other words, MC relate the additional
annualized investment costs of an energy-efficiency measure (or a set of measures)
to the energy-demand reduction of this measure. [72] explains the MC of an energy-
saving measure using the formula below. For developing a cost curve, it is most
important to define a reference development because all additional investments and
their associated energy savings are based on this reference. For our analysis this
reference development corresponds to the specific RH demand described in the
previous chapter.
1,,
11
−
−−
−
−=
∆
∆≅=
nEnergynEnergy
nnnn
EnergyEnergy
EEDD
InvCostaInvCosta
D
CapCost
dD
dCapCostmc
)...1( Nn∀
mcEE : Marginal Cost of Energy Efficiency Conservations in Buildings
CapCost: Capital Cost of Energy Efficiency Conservations in Buildings
InvCost: Investment Cost of Energy Efficiency Conservations in Buildings
Defining the baseline 34
DEnergy: Energy Demand of a Building
n and n-1: Energy Demand Level of the Building considered
N: Maximum Number of Saving Measures Considered
a: Annuity Factor
For the implementation we distinguish between existing buildings (RH1 and RH3)
and new buildings (RH2 and RH4). For existing buildings we have assumed the
specific RH demand of the year 2000 to be constant for the whole model horizon and
included options to reduce this demand. In this case all conservation measures
introduced are completely dependent on the model optimization results. The specific
RH demand without reductions is called the reference specific RH demand. For new
buildings we have assumed a constant building-code improvement for the whole time
horizon (the energy efficiency of each house increase, therefore, the specific RH
demand decrease). Hence, we implement two specific MC curves for existing
buildings, one for SFH and another for MFH. For new buildings we additionally
implement MC curves for each time period analysed in the model.
Existing buildings
Before being able to implement the MC curves for SFH and MFH in the model, each
curve has to be calibrated to the starting year 2000. The basis for each existing
building MC curve calibration is four separate curves reflecting the year of
construction of existing buildings. We distinguish between houses being built before
1947 (type I), between 1947 and 1975 (type II), between 1975 and 1985 (type III) as
well as between 1986 and 2000 (type IV). Note that buildings constructed after 2000
are referred to as new buildings in the model.
Figure 16 depicts the reference MC curves for SFH and MFH. On the x-axis the
specific RH demand in [MJ/m2a] is portrayed and on the y-axis the MC in [CHF/kWh].
The graphs show that specific MC curves also include very low quality building
codes, which are not relevant for the base year 2000. Hence, the starting point of the
curve (conservation measures) had to be calibrated such that it corresponds to the
specific energy of existing houses in the year 2000. For doing so, the ranked specific
energy demand of each house type is multiplied with its ERFA (year 2000), see
formula below. The resulting value is compared to the RH demand calculated in the
Defining the baseline 35
previous section (72 PJ for SFH). Once the calculated value matches the RH
demand, the starting point of the reference specific MC curve is obtained and can be
used in our analysis. The same procedure is used to calculate the specific MC
demand of SFH and MFH.
bo o
b
tbt QhEBFDMDRH � ⋅=0,_
otDMDRH _ : RH demand for the time period t0 [PJ/a]
0,tbEBF : Reference Energy Area [Mio m2]
boQh : Specific energy demand of each house type [MJ/m2a] for the baseline
to: First year of the time horizon (year 2000)
b: Building category by construction period
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
[MJ/m2a]
[CH
F/k
Wh
]
Before 19471947 -19751976 - 19851986 - 2000
Qhmin
Qh0
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
[MJ/m2a]
[CH
F/k
Wh
] Before 1947
1947 -1975
1976 - 1985
1986 - 2000
Qhmin
Qh0
Figure 16: Marginal-cost curves for SFH (left) and MFH (right) existing buildings.
Each marginal cost curve has a highest value ( oQh ), reflecting the ‘specific energy
demand of each house type [MJ/m2a] for the reference case’ and a lowest value
( minQh ) reflecting the ‘specific energy demand of each house type [MJ/m2a] for best
possible renovation’. However, it can also adopt any value between the reference
case and the best possible option ( nQh ). Figure 16 shows the values oQh and
minQh for buildings constructed before 1947. Having this in mind, we can calculate the
theoretical maximum demand reduction of each house type using the formula below.
Note that the same calculation can be done for SFH and MFH.
booQhERFADMDRHDMDRH
b
tbttred min,,max_ 0__ � ⋅−=
otredDMDRH ,max__ : Theoretical maximum reduced RH demand [PJ/a]
Defining the baseline 36
With regards to the renovation procedure, in reality, houses can be grouped into
three different house types: houses for renovation, houses for maintenance and (so-
called) sleeping houses. Houses for renovation refer to houses, which, due to a
renovation, increase their energy efficiency. This renovation is an energetic
renovation. This means that the building code (e.g. the isolation of roofs, walls or
windows) is improved. Once the building code is improved and a house demands
less energy for heating, the building code remains untouched until a renovation is
needed again (when the end of the building-code lifetime is reached). Houses for
maintenance refer to those houses, which are renovated but not energetically
improved. The building code remains the same and the consumption of the house
remains constant. Sleeping houses refers to those houses which are not renovated
at all. In this case the owner of the house could decide to invest into a renovation at
any time.
In the baseline scenario, we guarantee that only houses subject to renovation can
improve their energy efficiency (the building code) and demand less energy for
heating. Therefore, we assume a renovation cycle or renovation rate for existing
buildings. In other words, we need to find the maximum share of houses to be
renovated for every time period. This renovation rate also corrects the theoretical
maximum reduced RH demand as calculated in the last section. Using the renovation
rate (renb,t) we can calculate the cumulative reduced energy demand until 2050,
using the formula below. In words, the renovation rates multiplied with total amount of
ERFA give us the total amount of ERFA that can be renovated during each modelling
period. Multiplying these values with the specific energy use (new specific energy
use due to renovation subtracted from the reference case) reveals the cumulative
energy savings in [PJ/a]. Table 5 depicts the renovation rate of existing buildings.
� �=
−⋅⋅=2050
20050,, )(_
t b
ntbtbcum bbQhQhrenERFADMDRH
RH_DMDcum: Cumulative reduced energy demand [PJ/a]
renb,t: Renovation rate [%]
Defining the baseline 37
Table 5: Five-year period renovation rates of existing buildings [%].
SFH –Existing Buildings [%]
Before 1947 1947 – 1975 1975 - 1985 1985-2000 Year
4.0% 4.5% 4.0% 1.0% 2005
4.0% 4.5% 4.0% 1.0% 2010
3.5% 4.0% 5.0% 3.0% 2015
3.5% 4.0% 5.0% 3.0% 2020
3.0% 3.5% 4.5% 3.0% 2025
3.0% 3.5% 4.5% 3.0% 2030
2.5% 3.5% 3.5% 2.5% 2035
2.5% 3.5% 3.5% 2.5% 2040
2.5% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2045
2.5% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2050
MFH – Existing Buildings [%]
Before 1947 1947 - 1975 1975 - 1985 1985-2000 Year
4.6% 6.6% 4.6% 1.2% 2005
4.6% 6.6% 4.6% 1.2% 2010
3.6% 5.0% 5.7% 3.2% 2015
3.6% 5.0% 5.7% 3.2% 2020
3.0% 4.0% 5.2% 3.7% 2025
3.0% 4.0% 5.2% 3.7% 2030
2.6% 3.5% 3.9% 3.3% 2035
2.6% 3.5% 3.9% 3.3% 2040
2.5% 3.4% 2.6% 2.1% 2045
2.5% 3.4% 2.6% 2.1% 2050
Reference: [69]
For the implementation in SMM, the MC curves were changed as follows. The
implementation procedure is illustrated Figure 17. The picture on the top left
represents a simplified MC curve as illustrated in Figure 16. The curve has three
steps; hence it can be improved by energy reduction measures three times. The first
step on the right-hand side represents the MC for the reference specific energy
demand of 400 [MJ/m2a]. This energy demand can be reduced to 300, 200 and 100,
which results in higher marginal costs (climbing up the MC curve). Note that a MC
curve, as depicted by the top left picture, exists for each of the four house types b. In
a first conversion step, the values of the specific RH demand, Qh, were multiplied
with the ERFA for each time period and with the corresponding renovation rates, see
top left picture and equation below. Since the MC curves were multiplied with the
ERFA of each time period, we obtained MC curves for time period. Each curve has
the same MC.
btb ntbtbn QhrenERFAQh ⋅⋅= ,,,'
Defining the baseline 38
tbnQh
,'
: Energy demand of each house type for each Energy Demand Level in
[PJ/a]
bnQh : Specific energy demand of each house type for each Energy Demand
Level in [MJ/m2a]
n: Energy Demand Level of the Building considered
Afterwards, the MC curves were normalized by calculating the difference of each MC
curve step; see lower picture of Figure 17 and equation below Figure 17. The MC
curve represents the additional (to the marginal costs for providing residential heat)
marginal costs nbMC , necessary to achieve a specific additional demand reduction.
Hence, according to our example, if the marginal costs increase by 0.2, we achieve a
demand reduction by 0.2 PJ/a.
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
0 100 200 300 400 500
Qh [MJ/m2a]
MC
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
Qh' [PJ/a]
MC
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
Qh [PJ/a]
MC
Figure 17: Marginal-cost curves implementation for SFH existing buildings used for the model implementation.
tbnn QhQhQhtbtb ,0 ''
,,−=
nnbnb MCMCMC ,0,, −=
tbnQh
,: Normalized energy demand
Defining the baseline 39
nbMC , : Normalized marginal costs
So far we have obtained MC curves for each building type b and each five-year time
period t. Each MC curve consists of steps representing a specific building code
improvement. Once the MC curves are implemented into SMM, investments in
building code improvement reduce the energy demand in the model. Taking into
account the renovation rates, we keep in mind that only a certain percentage of not
renovated ERFA can be renovated every five year time period. Thus, every five-year
time period, a specific percentage of non-renovated ERFA can undergo renovation.24
In SMM the implementation was realized using the so-called end-use process. An
end-use process satisfies each demand for energy by providing useful energy. In
case of an end-use process with an MC curve implementation, this demand is
reduced. Therefore, the MC costs had to be converted into investment cost (see
formula below). This guarantees that an investment in an improved building code
remains over the full life time of this building code. Renovations for example made in
period 2010-2015 prevail for the rest of the time horizon. In the following time periods
the model can decide whether or not it wants to renovate more not yet renovated
ERFA, which can again reduce the energy demand.
CRF
MCINV =
, with 1)1(
)1(
−+
⋅+=
t
t
dr
drdrCRF
INV: Investment Costs
MC: Marginal Costs
dr: Discount Rate
t: Life time
New buildings
With regards to new buildings we assume that only one specific average house type
can be built in every future modelling period (t = 2005, 2010, … 2050). For this
24 Note that in reality the quality of each renovation differs from house to house. In MAKRAL, when we talk about renovation and resulting building code improvements consuming less energy, we refer to the average improvements valid for a specific house building stock.
Defining the baseline 40
average house type we assume a constant improvement of energy demand over
time (see Figure 14). For example, the average SFH build in the year 2005 demands
270 [MJ/m2a] and in 2050 it demands 174 [MJ/m2a]25. These specific RH demand
values correspond to thick black line displayed in Figure 18. For the MC curve this
implies that not all saving options, which were available in the year 2005, are still
available in the year 2050. The options necessary for the reduction from 270
[MJ/m2a] to 174 [MJ/m2a] are already taken into consideration in the building code of
future houses. Moreover, the MC of the first energy saving step of the future MC
curve (starting at 174 [MJ/m2a]) has to begin at a new MC costs level (anInvCostn –
an-1InvCostn-1). This is due to the fact that the first MC step is the reduction from the
new reference consumption (DEnergy,n = 174 [MJ/m2a]) to the first improved
consumption (DEnergy,n - DEnergy,n-1). In other words, the MC curve of the year
2005 has to be cut horizontally (the MC have to be levelled to the reference value)
and vertically (the already taken saving measures of the reference development have
to be subtracted). This principle is shown in Figure 18 by the dotted MC curve.
Figure 18: Marginal-cost curve of new buildings SFH – sketch.
Reference: [69]
25 Values of the specific energy use corresponds to the PROGNOS assumptions of [62].
Defining the baseline 41
For implementation of the MC curves in SMM, the specific MC curve [MJ/m2a] is
converted to absolute values [TJ/a] by multiplying with the additional amount of
ERFA [Mio m2] built during each time period. In other words, for every time period t
the new specific MC is multiplied with the ERFA constructed during that time period
(ERFAt – ERFAt-1). Note that the MC curve obtained by this calculation only
corresponds to the dwelling constructed in the time period t. The following equation
describes the MC curve calculation of new buildings.
�=
−−⋅=2050
20051)(
t
tttt ERFAERFASMMCMCC
MCC: Marginal Cost Curve [TJ/a]
SMMC: Specific Marginal Cost Curve [MJ/m2a]
ERFA: Energy Reference Floor Area
t: Time Period
The implementation in SMM is done using end-use demand processes just like it is
done for existing buildings. Using this implementation the model can decide to either
use the building code shown in Figure 18 (according to [62]) or invest in dwellings
with an even more sophisticated building code. Once an investment is done, the
building code of a house will remain as is until the end of the time horizon.
3.4.2.4 Growth rates
In MARKAL a growth rate reflects the maximum annual growth of total installed
capacity in a period. The capacity growth is described by two parameters, GROWTH
and GROWTH_TID. GROWTH is a decimal fraction representing the maximum
annual growth. For example, a 10 % per annum growth rate is specified as 1.1. This
parameter has to be specified for each modelling time period. The second parameter,
GROWTH_TID, is the so-called seed value. It refers to the maximum amount of
capacity, which can be built in the initial period (the period of the first possible
investment). Usually GROWTH_TID corresponds to a very small capacity size. The
formula below describes how growth rates are implemented in the model code.
TIDGROWTHGROWTHCAPCAP tettet _)(,1, +⋅≥ −
Defining the baseline 42
GROWTH: Maxium Growth Rate
GROWTH_TID: Seed Value
In SMM it was necessary to add growth constraints to new technologies for the
heating sectors. Depending on the demand category, we define different
technological growth rates. For the demand categories that represent existing
buildings (RH1 and RH3) we define two growth rates. For technologies already
existing in the base year we assumed a maximum annual growth rate of 5 %, while
for new technologies we assumed a maximum annual growth rate of 10 % per year.
For demand categories that represent new houses (RH2 and RH3) we assume one
maximum annual growth rate of 10 % for all technologies.
3.4.2.5 Other residential-demand segments
The demand projection of Other residential demand segments (ORDS) were
estimated based on the Trend Ia26 scenario from PROGNOS.27[62] Thereby, in a first
step, we matched each SMM demand segment with the residential categories used
in [62]. In a second step, we estimated the future energy demands (useful energy
consumptions) based on the final-energy consumption of PROGNOS and the
efficiencies of each technology.[62,63,74]
Table 6 shows the estimated demand projections used in SMM. Table 2 enfolds all
demand segments including residential heating: Cooling (RC1), Cloth Drying (RCD),
Cloth Washing (RCW), Dish Washing (RDW), Other Electric (REA), Heating SFH
Existing Buildings (RH1), Heating MFH Existing Buildings (RH2), Hot Water (RHW),
Cooking (RK1), Lighting (RL1), Refrigeration (RRF), Heating SFH New Buildings
(RH3) and Heating MFH New Buildings (RH4). As can be seen in the table, most
demand segments increase slightly. The demand segment Other Electric (REA)
experiences a steep increase up the 30 PJ, which reflects the increased use of
devices such as computers, televisions sets, etc.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
x
26 The Swiss Federal Office of Energy has released Energy-Perspective (Energieperspektiven) reports with several different scenario trends.[73] The scenario Trend Ia represents a reference development without any additional implementation of the already adopted environmental and political measurements and instruments. PROGNOS is responsible for the Energy-Perspectives for the residential end-use sector.[62] 27 PROGNOS calculates energy demands based on an ex-post (buildings constructed between 1880 and 2000) and an ex-ante (buildings constructed between 2001 and 2050) analysis. Relevant assumptions for this analysis are population development, GDP, amount of households, etc.
Defining the baseline 43
Table 6: End-use demand of residential demand segments [PJ].
Code28
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
RC1 5.14 5.9 6.8 7.7 8.7 10.2 11.7 12.4 12.7 12.9 13.0
RCD 1.44 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8
RCW 4.56 5.0 5.3 5.5 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8
RDW 1.66 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9
REA 11.51 13.3 15.2 17.3 19.5 22.9 26.2 27.8 29.1 29.8 30.1
RH1 71.41 71.8 71.6 71.6 71.4 71.3 71.0 70.9 70.8 70.6 70.5
RH3 80.19 80.6 80.1 79.6 79.0 78.2 77.0 76.4 75.8 75.2 74.6
RHW 18.73 18.7 18.4 18.1 17.9 17.7 17.4 17.1 16.9 16.7 16.4
RK1 6.01 6.4 6.7 6.8 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9
RL1 10.23 11.0 11.8 12.4 12.5 12.4 12.1 11.3 10.5 9.7 8.6
RRF 4.43 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.1 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.4
RH2 0.00 3.9 7.3 10.0 12.4 14.6 16.4 18.0 18.8 19.6 20.2
RH4 0.00 3.3 6.1 9.4 12.5 15.2 17.7 19.5 20.6 21.5 22.3
3.4.2.6 Detailed final-energy consumption
This section describes the final-energy consumption over the whole time horizon.
The final-energy consumption is a result of the base-year calibration and the demand
projection elaborated earlier. However, it is also influenced by other factors, the so-
called Adratios. Adratios are user-defined constraints between processes, such as
capacity, investment or activity29 relations, which are not directly coded in MARKAL.
MARKAL provides the option to define maximum (UP), equality (FX) or minimum
(LO) relations. For example, an adratio relation could define the maximum share of
diesel for final-energy consumption that can be used in the residential heating sector.
Generally speaking, they allow for a gradual transition between energy carriers in
specific sectors. For more detailed information we refer to [10,11].
In SMM we defined adratio relations on the activity (fuel consumption) of various
demand categories. Here, activity refers to the final-energy fuel-share of a set of
technologies. These relations should be understood as estimates of future
thresholds. Table 7 illustrates all adratios used in the model. The table defines two
categories (I and II) for every demand segment (RHW, RK1, etc.). These categories
represent either fuels (e.g diesel, electricity, etc.) or technology devices
(Incandescent lighting, etc.). Looking at the adratios in SMM, category I is put in
relation to category II. To give an example: In the demand segment RH1 Biomass is
28 The description of the acronyms is displayed in Table 3. 29 The activity of a process reflects how much fuel is either being consumed or produced by a process. If the activity of a process is put in relation to other processes, the modeler defines a relationship of fuel being produced or consumed by one technology or a set of technologies in comparison to a larger group of technologies. Thereby, the one technology or a set of technologies must be a part of the larger group of technologies.
Defining the baseline 44
put into relation to all other fuels (All). Furthermore, biomass should have at least a
(minimum) share of 4 %. In other cases, we also defined fixed or upper (maximum)
shares as indicated in the column “Type”.
Table 7: Adratios residential sector.
Category I Category II Type 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Hot Water (RHW)
Natural Gas All Maximum 0.20 0.23 0.26 0.30 0.35 0.41 0.47 0.54 0.63 0.73
Diesel All Minimum 0.46 0.36 0.26 0.16 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Electricity All Maximum 0.23 0.27 0.31 0.36 0.42 0.48 0.56 0.64 0.75 0.86
Cooking (RK1)
Electricity All Minimum 0.88 0.83 0.78 0.73 0.68 0.63 0.58 0.53 0.48 0.43
Lighting (RL1)
Incandescent All Minimum 0.70 0.65 0.55 0.45 0.35 0.25 0.15 0.05 0.00 0.00
Fluorescent All Maximum 0.08 0.10 0.13 0.17 0.21 0.27 0.35 0.44 0.56 0.72
Halogen All Maximum 0.08 0.10 0.13 0.17 0.21 0.27 0.35 0.44 0.56 0.72
Room-Heating Single-Family Houses Existing Building (RH1)
Biomass All Minimum 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03
Natural Gas All Maximum 0.20 0.23 0.27 0.31 0.36 0.42 0.49 0.56 0.65 0.75
Room-Heating Multi-Family Houses Existing Building (RH2)
Diesel All Minimum 0.32 0.29 0.25 0.19 0.10 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Electricity All Minimum 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05
Biomass All Minimum 0.06 0.06 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Room-Heating Single-Family Houses New Building (RH3)
Biomass All Minimum 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03
Natural Gas All Maximum 0.20 0.23 0.27 0.31 0.36 0.42 0.49 0.56 0.65 0.75
Room-Heating Multi-Family Houses New Building (RH4)
Diesel All Minimum 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Electricity All Minimum 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05
Biomass All Minimum 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Reference: [11,75], [62] own assumption
Section 3.3.2 already gave a general overview of the final energy consumption by
fuel and sector. In this section we additionally provide a more detailed outlook of the
final-energy consumption for every residential demand segment30. Figure 19 provides
an overview of each demand segment and the corresponding fuel usage. For
instance, the first demand segment, Cooling (RC1), shows a strong increase in the
consumption of electricity. A more differentiated picture draws the segment Heating
Single Family House New Buildings (RH1). The segment is dominated by (diesel
heating) oil and natural gas. The use of oil decreases whereas the use of natural gas 30 Note that SMM is a cost-minimization model. When interpreting future results, the reader should keep in mind that future is not ‘simulated’ but that technologies are chosen based on the lowest total system-costs. Hence, SMM advices how the technology mix should look like in a cost-optimal solution. This also applies to the reference case displayed here.
Defining the baseline 45
increases at the same time. Compared to RC1 where in fact electricity covers the
total energy demand, in the RH1 segment many other fuels still play a significant
role, namely biomass, electricity, etc. Note, the last picture on the right hand side of
Figure 19 shows the total consumption by fuel of the residential heating sub-sector (it
adds up RH1 to RH4).
Cooling (RC1)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
BiomassElectricity
Cloth Drying (RCD)
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Electricity
Cloth Washing (RCW)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Electricity
Dish Washing (RDW)
1.5
1.55
1.6
1.65
1.7
1.75
1.8
1.85
1.9
1.95
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Electricity
Other Electric (REA)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Electricity
Heating SFH Existing Buildings (RH1)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
BiomassCoalElectricityNatural GasOilOther
Heating MFH Existing Buildings (RH2)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
BiomassElectricityNatural GasOilOther
Heating SFH New Buildings (RH3)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
BiomassCoalElectricityNatural GasDistrict HeatOilOther
Defining the baseline 46
Heating MFH New Buildings (RH4)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
BiomassElectricityNatural GasDistrict HeatOil
Hot Water (RHW)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
BiomassElectricityNatural GasDistrict HeatOilOther
Cooking (RK1)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
BiomassElectricityNatural Gas
Lighting (RL1)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Electricity
Refrigeration (RRF)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Electricity
Total Residential Heating
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
BiomassCoalElectricityNatural GasDistrict HeatOilOther
Figure 19: Final-energy consumption of residential demand segments.
The following two figures show the detailed final-energy consumption of the
residential heating sub-sector by technology and the total final-energy consumption
of the residential sector. Figure 20 illustrates the final-energy consumption of the
heating sector. The heating sector continues to be dominated by oil and gas heating
systems. However, there is a strong tendency to switch from oil to gas heating
systems after the year 2025. The electrical consumption does not play a major role in
the heating sector. On the one hand this is due to a decreasing importance of
electrical resistance technologies. On the other hand this is due to the high
efficiencies of electrical heat pumps. All other heating technologies, especially
biomass stoves and district heating systems, remain to have a comparatively small
importance in the heating sector.
Defining the baseline 47
Also shown in Figure 20 is the amount of saved energy due to a better isolation of
roofs, windows, etc and the increase of the useful-energy demand. The energy
savings increase constantly over time. In 2050, the final-energy consumption due to
energy savings is lowered by 24 PJ or 15 %. Most saved energy originates from
isolating existing houses, about 70 %. New houses already have well improved
energy saving standards, hence additional savings play a smaller role. The increase
of useful-energy demand is represented by the black line. The demand increases
gradually by 24 %. Considering that the final-energy consumption remains about
constant over whole the time horizon, the demand increase indirectly represents the
energy-efficiency improvement of the baseline scenario due to improved heating
technologies.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Fin
al-
En
erg
y C
on
su
mp
tio
n [
PJ]
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
En
erg
y D
em
an
d [
per
Un
it]
Other Heating Biomass Stoves District Heating
Electrical Resistance Heat Pump Electric Gas Heating
Oil Heating Saved Energy Energy Demand
Residential heating technologies (including saved energy & energy demand):
Figure 20: Detailed final-energy consumption of the residential heating sector [PJ]. Also depicted in the figure
is the saved energy (grey area) due to improved insulation of roofs, windows, etc and the increase of the useful-
energy demand. The energy demand (solid line) is illustrated in [per Unit], relative to the year 2000.31
Figure 21 illustrates the total final energy consumption by energy carriers, summed
over all demand segments. We see that the residential sector remains to be
dominated by fossil fuel and electricity. However, a fuel switch is taking place from
diesel heating (oil) to natural gas. Other fuels, such as biomass, remain at small
levels.
31 For the amount of final-energy saved, the author converted the useful-energy demand reduction to the final-energy equivalents. For the conversion an efficiency of 100 % is assumed.
Defining the baseline 48
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Fin
al-
En
erg
y C
on
su
mp
tio
n [
PJ]
OtherOilDistrict HeatNatural GasElectricityCoalBiomass
Energy carriers:
Figure 21: Final-energy consumption of the residential sector [PJ] by energy carriers for all demand
categories.
3.5 Description of the transportation sector
In this section we describe the base-year calibration and future projection of the
transportation sector and provide a detailed outlook of the final-energy consumption
by all transportation modes until 2050. Next to the residential sector described above,
the transportation sector is of major importance when it comes to fuel (especially
fossil fuel) consumption and energy-saving potentials. According to [1] the
transportation sector is the largest energy consumer with about 303 PJ in 2000. This
corresponds to 35 % of the total final-energy consumption in the sector. The main
challenge for the future transportation sector is to switch firstly from today’s standard
cars to highly efficient cars consuming 5lt/100 km or less. Secondly, a transformation
from internal combustion engines (ICE) using gasoline and diesel to hybrid and fuel-
cell (FC) cars using natural gas and eventually hydrogen must be realized. Next to
the heating sectors, the transportation sector offers the second largest potential to
reduce the energy consumption by introducing fuel switching and technological
changes.
In SMM, we distinguish between nine different demand segments for the
transportation sector, see Table 8. The demand of each segment is either modelled
Defining the baseline 49
in [PJ] or in [bvkm/a]32. Aviation and navigation transportation modes have the unit
[PJ]. Road transportation modes have the energy-demand unit [bvkm/a].
Table 8: Demand segments of the transportation sector.
Description Abbreviation Demand Unit / a
Domestic Aviation TAD PJ
International Aviation TAI PJ
Bus TRB Bvkm
Trucks TRM Bvkm
Passenger Cars TRT Bvkm
Two Wheelers TRW bvkm
Rail TTP PJ
Domestic Navigation TWD PJ
International Navigation TWI PJ
3.5.1 Base year calibration
In this section, we illustrate the base-year calibration of the year 2000. The statistical
values of the base-year calibration is based on the Swiss Overall Energy statistic.[1]
The statistic defines the total final-energy consumption of the transportation sector for
the year 2000. However, this statistic has specific limitations because it does not
elaborate on a consumption split between different transportation modes such as
passenger car, busses, truck, etc. It only states the summation of the whole
transportation sector. More detailed information can be found in the Swiss Federal
Energy Perspectives, an analysis conducted by INFRAS.[76] INFRAS models the
transportation sector with corresponding future scenarios until 2035. However, it is
essential to note one important difference between the Swiss Overall Energy statistic
and the Energy Perspectives. The Swiss Overall Energy statistic is balanced
according to the Sales Principle whereas the Energy Perspectives determine and
project energy consumptions based on the Territorial Principle (also called
Consumption Principle). A third allocation method of importance is the so-called
Inhabitant Principle. All three allocation principles can be described as follows:
• Sales Principle: This principle determines the amount of energy carriers (fuels)
sold in a country and estimates the resulting emissions. All energy carriers and
emission are allocated to this country. For instance, the emissions resulting from
gasoline tanked in Switzerland but consumed in Germany are allocated to Swiss
32 [bvkm/a] is an abbreviation of billion vehicle kilometres per year.
Defining the baseline 50
emissions. The Swiss Overall Energy Statistic uses this principle to allocate all
resources.[77]
• Territorial or Consumption Principle: This principle determines the amount of
energy carriers (fuels) which are consumed in Switzerland. According to this
principle gasoline bought in Switzerland but consumed in Germany account to
Germany. The resulting emissions are also allocated to Germany. INFRAS uses
this principle to allocate resources.[78]
• Inhabitant Principle: This principle distinguishes between Swiss inhabitants and
foreigners. It determines the amount of energy carriers (fuels) consumed by
Swiss inhabitants in Switzerland and abroad.[78]
In SMM, we use the sales principle based on Swiss Overall Energy Statistic.
Because some statistical data for the model calibration originates from INFRAS,
statistical adjustments are necessary to estimate the fuel-consumption shares of the
road transportation sector. All principles define exactly who consumes which energy
carriers and where those energy carriers are consumed, hence, we can also
correlate the statistics to another. Using specific assumptions, we can convert
statistics based on the territorial to statistics based on the sales principle. To obtain
the statistical values for the sales principle from the territorial principle, we have to
take into account the so-called ‘tank tourism’. Generally, because of differences in
fuel prices, a recognizable amount of people from abroad travel to Switzerland to
tank gasoline and a recognizable amount of Swiss inhabitants travel abroad to tank
diesel. For the statistical conversion we have to subtract the amount of fuel tanked
abroad but driven in Switzerland and add the amount of fuel tanked in Switzerland
but driven abroad. The method applied in this context is explained below.
For a first modal final-energy consumption split, we used the total final-energy
consumption of the transportation sector as described by the Swiss Federal Office of
Energy.[1,76] In total the transportation sector consumed 303 PJ in the year 2000. In
a first step the total consumption was separated into Rail, Road, Air and Navigation
modes using IEA statistics.[49] With a share of 74 % road transport is the major
consumer followed by air traffic having a share of 23 %. In the statistics, air transport
is determined using the sales principle and includes domestic and international
aviation. Fuel consumption by international aviation refers to fuel tanked in
Switzerland and used for international flight connections. Table 9 shows the final-
Defining the baseline 51
energy fuel consumption of the transportation sector. It distinguishes transportation
modes as well as fuels for the year 2000.
Table 9: Fuel consumption of the transportation sector in [PJ] in 2000.
Gasoline Kerosene Diesel Electricity Total
Rail 0.6 9.5 10.1
Road 169.0 54.8 223.8
Air 0.3 68.0 68.2
Navigation 0.5 0.5
Total 169.3 68.0 55.9 9.5 302.6
References: [49,76,79]
Having obtained the total road-transport consumption, we split the consumption into
four different modes: Cars (also referred to as Passenger Cars), Motorcycles, Buses
and Freight. In SMM, the final-energy consumption estimates for every transportation
mode and fuel underlies the equation below. Values for Stock of Vehicles, Kilometres
per Vehicles Travelled per Annum and Average Efficiency of Vehicles in 2000 are
mainly based on values from INFRAS, see Table 10, Table 12 and Table 13. As
mentioned above, INFRAS uses the territorial principle to estimate fuel consumption
whereas Swiss Overall Energy statistic uses the sales principle. Therefore, it was
necessary to exogenously adjust the stock of vehicles. In the model we carried out
stock changes as illustrated in Table 11. These changes guarantee the correct
allocation of fuel tanked abroad but driven in Switzerland and fuel tanked in
Switzerland but driven abroad. The Conversion Factors of the energy unit [PJ] to [Lt]
of gasoline and diesel are depicted in Table 14. Finally, Table 15 shows the results of
the obtained modal road split. The total road consumption adds up to 224 PJ. Cars,
with a share of 75 %, are the largest consumer, followed by freight transport with a
share of 23 %. Passenger-car transportation also constitutes the major consumer of
the whole transportation sector having a share of 55 %.
10⋅⋅⋅⋅= CFFCKVASVFEC
FEC: Final Energy Consumption [PJ]
SV: Stock of Vehicles [1000 cars] (adjusted by Tank Tourism)
KVA: Kilometres per Vehicle per Annum [Vkm/a/car]
FC: Fuel Consumption [Lt/100km]
CF: Conversion Factor [PJ/Lt]
Defining the baseline 52
Table 10: Stock of vehicles [1000 Vehicles].
Cars Motorcycles Busses Freight Total
Diesel 142 6.0 152
Gasoline 3402 731 0.4 160
LPG (not included) 1
Total 3545 731 6 312 4595
References: [76,80,81]
Table 11: Changes of stock of vehicles due to tank tourism [1000 Vehicles].
Cars
Gasoline +10%
Diesel -10%
Trucks
Gasoline +10%
Diesel -30%
Table 12: Kilometres per vehicle travelled per annum [Vkm/ Vehicle / a].
Cars Motorcycles Busses Freight
Diesel 18400 49000 25251
Gasoline 13900 2744 49000 14582
LPG (not included) 17500
References: [82]
Table 13: Average efficiency of vehicles 2000 [Lt/100km].
Cars Motorcycles Busses Freight
Diesel 7.73 - 24.91 24.43
Gasoline 8.76 1.70 28.56 31.26
LPG (not included) 7.73 - - -
Total
References: [76]
Table 14: Conversion factors PJ to Lt for different fuels.
Fuel PJ to Lt
Diesel 26833603
Gasoline 28618008
LPG 38976268
Defining the baseline 53
Table 15: Total final-energy consumption vehicles in [PJ].
Gasoline Diesel Total
Car 160.5 6.8 167.2
Motorcycles 1.2 0.0 1.2
Bus 0.2 2.7 3.0
Freight 7.2 45.2 52.4
Total 169.0 54.7 223.8
3.5.2 Future projection
For a better understanding of the future energy-demand projections in SMM, we
provide relevant information about available future transportation modes and
resulting future-demand projections.
3.5.2.1 Passenger cars
In the year 2000, passenger cars consist of two categories, gasoline cars and diesel
cars. The two car modes were powered by internal combustion engines (ICE). In the
last two years, alternatives engines drew increasing public attention, foremost the
hybrid cars. New hybrid cars combine a gasoline ICE with an electric engine. While
some car manufactures develop highly efficient ICE as a direct competitor to the
hybrid cars, other manufactures develop revolutionary engine concepts with
hydrogen fuel cells. Apparently, the future offers many plausible combinations of
exciting engines and new concepts. In SMM we have included many of those
options, which could be realistic from today’s perspective. Appendix 2 includes a list
of all future passenger cars including a description of important cost and efficiency
data. Future cars in SMM include:
Gasoline Cars: Internal Combustion Engine
Electric Hybrid
Hybrid Fuel Cell
Diesel Cars: Internal Combustion Engine
Electric Hybrid
Compressed Natural Gas Cars: Internal Combustion Engine
Electric Hybrid
Hydrogen Cars: Internal Combustion Engine
Electric Hybrid
Defining the baseline 54
Fuel Cell
Hybrid Fuel Cell
100%
105%
110%
115%
120%
125%
130%
135%
140%
145%
150%
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Pa
ssen
ger
Cars
Dem
an
d In
cre
ase [
%]
Figure 22: Demand increase of passenger cars in [%].33
The demand projection of passenger cars is based on useful-energy demand
[bvkm/a] of the calibration year 2000 multiplied with the demand projections form
INFRAS [83]34. The useful-energy demand can be obtained by the average car
efficiency of each diesel and gasoline cars [bvkm/PJ] and the corresponding final-
energy consumption [PJ]. In the year 2000, the useful-energy demand was 58.8
[bvkm/a]. INFRAS projects the demand for passenger cars until 2035. From 2035
until 2050, the demand was projected using a logarithmic extrapolation. Over the
whole time horizon the passenger car demand increases by 42 % (see Figure 22).
3.5.2.2 Other transportation modes
Besides passenger cars the SMM model has several additional transportation modes
(demand categories) representing rail, road, air and navigation. The useful-energy
demand of each transportation mode is calculated in the same way it was done for
passenger cars, multiplying the average car efficiency and the corresponding final-
33 The value for the year 2005 has been adjusted slightly to better match the Swiss final-energy consumption statistics of the year 2005.[60] 34 INFRAS calculates future-energy demands based on bottom-up modeling and macro-economic assumptions such as GDP and population growth.
Defining the baseline 55
energy consumption. Note that for road transport the useful-energy unit (demand
unit) is [bvkm/a] while for all categories the demand unit is [PJ/a]. The demand driver
for each category is either the GDP or the population development. Only for the
category Two Wheeler, the demand projection was taken directly from INFRAS.
Table 16 shows energy demand in the year 2000 and the basis for the demand
projection. Figure 23 shows the demand projection for the transportation modes.
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
150%
160%
170%
180%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Oth
er
Tra
nsp
ort
ati
on
Mo
del
Dem
an
d I
ncre
ase [
%]
Population GDP GDP times Population INFRAS (2-Wheelers)
Figure 23: Demand increase of other transportation modes in [%].
Table 16: Demand segments of other transportation modes.
Demand Demand in 2000 Demand Unit / a Projection Basis
Domestic Aviation 3.20 PJ GDP and Population
International Aviation 64.76 PJ GDP and Population
Buses 0.28 bvkm GDP and Population
Trucks 4.38 bvkm GDP
Two Wheeler 1.20 bvkm INFRAS [83]35
Rail 10.13 PJ GDP
Domestic Navigation 0.22 PJ Population
International Navigation 0.29 PJ GDP and Population
35 INFRAS calculates future-energy demands based on bottom-up modeling and macro-economic assumptions such as GDP and population growth.
Defining the baseline 56
3.5.3 Detailed final-energy consumption
This section describes the final-energy consumption of the transportation sector over
the whole time horizon. The section also elaborates on the so-called adratios. As
mentioned above, adratios are user-defined constraints between processes, such as
capacity, investment or activity36 relations, which are not directly coded in MARKAL.
Table 17 illustrates all adratios used in the transportation sector. Again, the table
defines two categories (I and II) for every demand segment (TRT, TRB and TRM).
Category I is put in relation to category II. To give an example: In the demand
segment passenger cars (TRT), gasoline ICE cars are put into relation to diesel ICE
cars. They show minimum share of 94 % for the year 2005. Note that only ICE cars
are constrained by adratios. All other cars are not constrained; hence the choice of
new car models is totally flexible.
Table 17: Adratios transportation sector.
Category I Category II Type 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Passenger Cars (TRT)
Gasoline ICE Diesel ICE Minimum 0.94 0.89 0.84 0.79 0.74 0.70 0.66 0.62 0.58 0.54
Buses (TRB)
Diesel ICE Gasoline ICE Minimum 0.81 0.79 0.77 0.75 0.73 0.71 0.69 0.67 0.65 0.63
Natural Gas ICE All Maximum 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80
Trucks (TRM)
Gasoline ICE Diesel ICE Minimum 0.12 0.11 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03
Natural Gas ICE All Maximum 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80
Reference: [63,83] own assumption37
Figure 24 provides an overview of each demand segment and the corresponding fuel
use in the transportation sector. For instance, the demand segment passenger cars
shows a strong increase in the consumption of diesel. At the same time, the
consumption of gasoline decreases and has a share of only 34 % in 2050. Apart from
passenger cars, almost all transportation modes show a clear-cut final-energy
consumption until 2050. Fuel switching to natural gas or even hydrogen does not
take place in the baseline scenario. The aviation demand-segments are still
36 The activity of a process reflects how much fuel is either being consumed or produced by a process. If the activity of a process is put in relation to other processes, the modeler defines a relationship of fuel being produced or consumed by one technology or a set of technologies in comparison to a larger group of technologies. Thereby, the one technology or a set of technologies must be a part of the larger group of technologies. 37 ICE is the abbreviation for Internal Combustion Engine.
Defining the baseline 57
dominated by aviation gasoline, rail by electricity and trucks by diesel (oil). Only
buses show a doubling in the use of gasoline while diesel remains at constant levels.
Domestic Aviation (TAD)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Aviation GasolineJet Kerosene
International Aviation (TAI)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Jet Kerosene
Busses (TRB)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
DieselGasoline
Trucks (TRM)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
DieselGasoline
Passenger Cars (TRT)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
DieselGasoline
Two Wheelers (TRW)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Gasoline
Rail (TTP)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
DieselElectricity
Domestic Navigation (TWD)
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Diesel
Defining the baseline 58
International Navigation (TWI)
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Diesel
Figure 24: Final-energy consumption of transportation demand segments.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Fin
al-
En
erg
y C
on
su
mp
tio
n [
PJ]
ElectricityGasolineDieselJet KeroseneAviation Gasoline
Energy carriers:
Figure 25: Total final-energy consumption of the transportation sector.
Shown in Figure 25, the transportation sector remains to be dominated by oil
products. However, fuel switching takes place. While the shares of gasoline
decrease, the shares of diesel increase simultaneously. Electricity only has a little
share and alternative fuels are not of importance in the baseline.
Evaluating intermediate steps towards the 2000-Watt society 59
4 Evaluating intermediate steps towards the 2000-Watt
society
This chapter describes the main results of the 2000-Watt society analysis. During the
first half of the 21st century, only intermediate steps towards this goal can be
achieved. Until 2050, a 3500-Watt Society can be reached at maximum under the
assumption that end-use demands are inelastic to prices.38 Reaching already this
intermediate step is associated with a considerable transformation of the Swiss
energy system as we know it today and sizeable costs. Therefore, the 2000-Watt
society should be seen as a long-term goal which could possibly be reached only
during the second half of the century with radical technological changes and very
efficient energy systems. Note that the unit [Watt] in this context refers to Watt per
capita. In the following text use the abbreviation [kW/Cap], which refers to 1000
Watts per Capita.
The chapter is divided into five sections. Section 4.1 illustrates overall results of
primary-energy balances and highlights costs and CO2 emissions associated with
achieving specific consumption targets. Section 4.2 elaborates final-energy
consumption of the 3500-Watt society in detail. The section especially focuses on the
residential and transportation sectors. Section 4.3 discusses the importance of
additional scenarios with CO2 restrictions as well as combined kW/Cap and CO2
limiting scenarios. Section 4.4 scrutinizes in detail the effects of a combined scenario
targeting a 3.5 kW/Cap consumption in 2050 and a 10% CO2 reduction per decade39.
The last section draw conclusion on the obtained results.
4.1 Primary-energy balances of the 3500-Watt society
This section illustrates the overall results using Primary Energy (PE) balances. In
doing so, the author compares various scenarios using sensitivity analyses on
Primary Energy per Capita (PEC) consumptions and oil prices in the year 2050. The
sensitivity on PEC includes a non-limited PEC consumption and PEC consumption
targets of 5.0, 4.5, 4.0 and 3.5. Note that all PEC targets are implemented specifically
for the 2050. In order to avoids excess cost penalties at earlier time periods, in all
other time periods before the year 2050 no kW/Cap targets are implemented. The
38 The evaluation of a partial equilibrium model allows further primary-energy per capita reductions as the consumer response to price changes is reflected. This is discussed in the next chapter. 39 See Figure 40: CO2 emission targets for details.
Evaluating intermediate steps towards the 2000-Watt society 60
model then is free to choose the investment level needed to reach the goal without
any premature phasing-out of existing capacities. The sensitivity on oil prices
comprises values of 50, 75, 100 and 125 US$2000/bbl in the year 2050.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Pri
mary
En
erg
y p
er
Cap
ita [
kW
/Cap
]
No kW/Cap target
5.0 kW/Cap target
4.5 kW/Cap target
4.0 kW/Cap target
3.5 kW/Cap target
Figure 26: Primary energy per capita [kW/Cap] development for various kW/Cap targets in the year 2050 at an
oil price of 75 US$2000/bbl in the year 2050.
Figure 26 shows the development of primary energy per capita (PEC) for various
kW/Cap targets at on oil price of 75 US$2000/bbl in 2050. The lowest consumption that
can be reached until 2050 is a PEC of consumption of 3.5 kW/Cap. A more stringent
target cannot be realized as of 2050. As depicted in the figure, the strongest
technological changes occur towards the end of the time horizon. The figure can be
separated into two time phases. The first phase starts in the year 2010 and lasts until
2040. The second phase mirrors the time period 2040 and 2050. In the first phase,
initial technological change must be triggered. Compared to the first phase, the
second phase is the more important one. In the second phase, profound chances40
must be undertaken in order to realize substantial reduction targets. Results for other
oil prices than 75 US$2000/bbl are illustrated in the appendix 5.1. Increasing oil prices
impact the PEC consumption only moderately to negligibly. For the non-kW/Cap-
constrained scenarios, we can observe overall PEC reduction of about 10 %
40 The profound changes are due to strong efficiency gains in the end-use sector and the replacement of nuclear power stations.
Evaluating intermediate steps towards the 2000-Watt society 61
depending on the oil prices. On the contrary, oil price changes have only a negligible
impact on the PEC for all scenarios with a 3.5 kW/Cap target.
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
No kW/Cap target(5.17 kW/Cap)
5.0 kW/Cap target 4.5 kW/Cap target 4.0 kW/Cap target 3.5 kW/Cap target
Pri
mary
En
erg
y [
kW
/Ca
pit
a]
RenewablesHydroNuclearNatural Gas OilCoal
Energycarriers:
Figure 27: Total primary-energy consumption for an oil price of 75 US$2000/bbl in the year 2050.
Figure 27 depicts the PEC consumption for an oil price of 75 US$2000/bbl in 2050.41 In
2050, the PEC consumption amounts to 5.17 kW/Cap for the non-constraint
scenario. All other scenarios are bounded by kW/Cap targets. At maximum a
reduction to 3.5 kW/Cap (32 %) can be achieved. Comparing the non-constraint
scenario, with the increasingly constrained kW/Cap scenarios, we see a very small
but gradual reduction of fossil energy (coal, oil and natural gas). The scenario which
gets out of the line is the 4.0 kW/Cap scenario with a strong increase in fossil energy,
especially natural gas, consumption. Even more striking is the decommissioning of
nuclear-power plants. In 2045, the last power station, Beznau II, will be
decommissioned without any nuclear replacement in the 4.0 and 3.5 kW/Cap
scenarios.42 Due to this decommissioning of nuclear-power plants combined with
investments in (high efficient) gas-turbines power stations, the overall efficiency of
the Swiss energy system can be reduced significantly and PEC consumptions of 4.0
and even 3.5 are obtained. After all, this replacement is also one of the main reasons
for the strong PEC reductions after 2040, as shown in the previous figure. The side- 41 The results for all other oil prices are shown in the appendix. 42 Nuclear power plants usually have an expected life time of 40 years. Decommissioning dates of Swiss nuclear plants and technical information about new nuclear power stations can be found in [4].
Evaluating intermediate steps towards the 2000-Watt society 62
effect is raising CO2 emissions for the 4.0 KW/Cap target, see Figure 28. Also note
that we do not recognize an intensified use of renewable energies as they also
assume low conversion efficiencies like nuclear.43
No limit5
4.54
3.5
050
075
100
125
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
[Mt] CO2
[kW/Cap] Primary energy target 2050
[US$2000/bbl]
Oil price 2050
45-5040-4535-4030-3525-3020-2515-2010-155-100-5
Figure 28: CO2 Emissions of different scenarios in the year 2050.
Figure 28 illustrates the CO2 emissions of all contemplated scenarios. The x-axis
depicts the kW/Cap target, the y-axis the oil price in the year 2050 and the z-axis the
emissions in the year 2050. To understand the figure, we could for instance take the
‘not limited kW/Cap’ value at an oil price of 50 US$2000/bbl as a starting point and look
at various scenarios. The CO2 emissions in the starting point are 42.6 Mt. Going
along the x-axis we reach more stringent kW/Cap targets at an oil price of 50
US$2000/bbl. Going along the y-axis we reach higher oil prices for ‘not limited kW/Cap’
values. We can also go along the x and the y-axis to reach combined kW/Cap targets
for higher oil price. The point opposite to the starting point depicts a kW/Cap target of
3.5 for an oil price of 125 US$2000/bbl. All points connected together produce an area
as shown in the figure.
The figure shows that only for high oil prices (125 US$2000/bbl) or strong kW/Cap
constraints, a CO2 emission reduction to about 31 to 33 Mt CO2 can be reached in
2050. This reduction is approximately equivalent (little higher) compared to the 5 %
43 Renewable energies refer to biomass, wind, geothermal, solar, etc. Hydro power is not included in this category but listed separately.
Evaluating intermediate steps towards the 2000-Watt society 63
per decade emission decrease (as illustrated in Figure 40, section 4.3). For all other
oil prices and kW/Cap constraints, the emissions are higher. Moreover, to reach
strong emission reductions, such as a 10 % per decade reduction, additional
measures are needed.
4.2 The role of end-use sectors in the 3500-Watt society
In this section the technological options to achieve a 3500-Watt society are
described. In doing so, we firstly look at the general transformations of all end-use
sectors. Secondly we scrutinize the technological modification of the residential and
transportation sectors in detail.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Fin
al-
En
erg
y C
on
su
mp
tio
n [
PJ]
No kW/Cap target
5.0 kW/Cap target
4.5 kW/Cap target
4.0 kW/Cap target
3.5 kW/Cap target
Figure 29: Total Final-energy consumption [PJ] developments for various kW/Cap targets and an oil price of 75
US$2000 in 2050.
Figure 29 presents the development of total final-energy (FE) consumption for
various kW/Cap PEC constraints. All trajectories account for an oil price of 75
US$2000/bbl in the year 2050. Compared to the PEC consumption development, the
FE consumption resembles a relatively smooth and constant transition over time. The
stronger the PEC target, the more energy-efficiency measures are implemented in all
end-use sectors. Especially for the 3.5 kW/Cap scenario drastic but gradual
technological changes are undertaken.
Evaluating intermediate steps towards the 2000-Watt society 64
Buildings and transportation are the most energy consuming end-use sectors in
Switzerland. Each of the sectors has a different reduction potential. All energy
reductions added up attain the reduction displayed in the previous figure. The largest
reduction experiences the residential sector, closely followed by the commercial
sector. In both sectors the major reduction is accomplished by reducing heating
losses. In the transportation sector we realize rather moderate but noteworthy
efficiency gains. In the industrial and other sectors44 rather small efficiency gains are
estimated. Looking for instance at an oil price of 75 US$2000/bbl and 3.5 kW PEC use,
the residential sector reduces the final-energy consumption by 81 PJ (~ 9 % of the
total FE consumption), the commercial sector by 63 PJ (~ 7 %), the transportation
sector by 50 PJ (~ 6 %), the industrial sector by 25 PJ (~ 3 %) and all other sectors
by 4 PJ (< 1 %) in relation to the non-kW/Cap constraint scenario.
The PEC use shows rather modest oil-price sensitivities for strong kW/Cap targets.
The same modest sensitivity accounts for the FE consumption. Looking at the FE
consumption reduction over time, we recognize a maximum FE-consumption
difference in the year 2030. However, this difference becomes increasingly smaller in
time periods after 2030. In the year 2050, when the 3.5 kW/Cap target is reached,
the oil price ceases to have influence on the energy and technology mix. A 3.5
kW/Cap target demands technologies of such high efficiencies that even high oil
prices do not impact the mix further. Total FE consumption developments over time
as well as detailed sectorial and fuel consumptions for other oil prices in 2050 are
attached in the appendix 5.2.
In the remaining part of this section we focus on the technological changes of the
residential and transportation section. As mentioned above, these two sectors are of
major importance when Switzerland targets the 3500-Watt society in the year 2050.
The residential sector
The residential sector has the largest energy saving potential of all end-use sectors
in Switzerland. The consumption is heavily dependent on the oil price and on the
kW/Cap target to be achieved. Figure 30 illustrated the final-energy consumption of
the residential sector for different oil prices and the kW/Cap targets in 2050. The x-
axis depicts the kW/Cap target, the y-axis the oil price in the year 2050 and the z-axis
44 Other Sectors comprice the agriculture, non-energy use and other non-specified energy sectors.
Evaluating intermediate steps towards the 2000-Watt society 65
the total-FE consumption. To understand the figure, we could again exemplarily
choose the ‘not limited kW/Cap’ value at an oil price of 50 US$2000/bbl as our starting
point and look at various scenarios. The final-energy consumption in the starting
point is 237 PJ. Going along the x-axis we reach stronger kW/Cap targets at an oil
price of 50 US$2000/bbl. Going along the y-axis we reach higher oil prices for ‘not
limited kW/Cap’ values. We can also go along the x and the y-axis to reach combined
kW/Cap targets for higher oil price. The point opposite to the starting point depicts a
kW/Cap target of 3.5 for an oil price of 125 US$2000/bbl. All points connected together
produce an area as shown in the figure.
At maximum, the consumption can be reduced to about 102 PJ. This reduction is
optimal for a high kW/Cap constraint of 3.5, independent of the oil price. Compared
to a non-kW/Cap constrained future at an oil price of 75 US$2000/bbl, this would imply
a reduction of 80 PJ or 45 %. Note ‘the stronger the PEC reduction target the less
dependent is the consumption on the oil price’ also accounts for the residential
sector.
No limit5
4.54
3.5
50
75
100
125
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
Fin
al-
En
erg
y C
on
su
mp
tio
n [
PJ]
[kW/Cap]
Primary energy target 2050
[US$2000/bbl]
Oil price 2050
225-250200-225175-200150-175125-150100-12575-10050-7525-500-25
Figure 30: Total final-energy consumption of the residential sector in 2050.
The residential sector consists of various demand segments as described in the
chapter 3, heating, cooling, cooking etc. With regards to the utilization of energy-
reduction potentials, the most important segment is residential heating (RH). The RH
consumption for various oil prices and kW/Cap targets in the year 2050 is depicted in
Evaluating intermediate steps towards the 2000-Watt society 66
Figure 31. Again, the figure has three axes. The x-axis illustrates the kW/Cap target,
the y-axis the oil price in the year 2050 and the z-axis the total-FE consumption. The
maximum reduction at an oil price of 75 US$2000/bbl is 70 PJ. At this oil price, this FE
reduction of the RH sector corresponds to 85 % of the total FE reduction of the whole
residential sector. As shown in the previous figure, the more stringent the kW/Cap
targets, the less elastic is the final-energy consumption to the oil price. For a 3.5
kW/Cap target, the final-energy consumption of RH is about 43 PJ.
The reduction of FE is strongly correlated to the reduction of CO2 emissions in the
residential sector. Putting side by side the non-kW/Cap limited scenario and the 3.5
kW/Cap target scenario for an oil price of 75 US$2000/bbl, we identify a CO2 emission
reduction of little more than 85 %. With CO2 emissions of only 0.8 Mt in the 3.5
kW/Cap scenario, the residential sector is basically CO2 free in 2050.
No limit5
4.54
3.5
50
75
100
125
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Fin
al-
En
erg
y C
on
su
mp
tio
n [
PJ]
[kW/Cap]
Primary energy target 2050
[US$2000/bbl]
Oil price 2050
140-160120-140100-12080-10060-8040-6020-400-20
Figure 31: Total final-energy consumption of the residential heating sector.
Energy, specifically RH, can be reduced by switching to more efficient technologies
or by investing into energy efficiency devices. For this purpose energy saving
options, using the marginal abatement approach, were implemented in the model,
see chapter 3. Figure 32 shows the total amount of saved energy coming from
energy-saving measures for various scenarios. The figure has three axes. The x-axis
illustrates the kW/Cap target, the y-axis the oil price in the year 2050 and the z-axis
the total amount of useful energy saved. Note that kW/Cap targets and oil prices are
Evaluating intermediate steps towards the 2000-Watt society 67
in reversed order compared to previous figures. At an oil price of 50 US$2000/bbl
without any kW/Cap constraints, the useful energy reduction amounts to 25 PJ or
about 13% of the total useful-energy demand. This demand includes RH for new and
existing buildings as well as SFH and MFH. In the most constrained scenarios, with a
kW/Cap target of 3.5, the useful-energy reduction nearly doubles to more than 45 PJ.
As can be seen in the figure an oil price increase alone already has a strong
influence on the amount of energy reduced. In comparison, a significant kW/Cap
target, impacts the amount of reduced energy due to the implementation of energy
saving measure even more drastically.
No limit5
4.54
3.5
50
75
100
1250
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Fin
al-
En
erg
y S
avin
gs [
PJ]
[kW/Cap]
Primary energy target 2050
[US$2000/bbl]
Oil price 2050
45-5040-4535-4030-3525-3020-2515-2010-155-100-5
Figure 32: Final-energy savings of the residential sector in 2050.
Using the following two figures, we elaborate in detail the structural changes
necessary to achieve the energy saving reduction illustrated in the last figure. We
choose an oil price of 75 US$2000/bbl in the year 2050. Based on this oil price, we
choose two scenarios, one without any kW/Cap target and one with a kW/Cap target
of 3.5. Figure 33 and Figure 34 show the specific energy demand of all house types
modelled for the two scenarios. Looking at the figure, we can identify two main
results. Firstly, average new buildings consume much less energy than average
existing buildings. The entire existing building stock in Switzerland encompasses a
specific energy demand between 350 and 400 MJ/m2, which improves gradually over
time. On the contrary, new buildings should have high insulation standards.
Evaluating intermediate steps towards the 2000-Watt society 68
Depending on the scenario and the house type, the specific energy demand ranges
between 140 and 200 MJ/m2 in the year 2010. Note that due to modelling constraints,
we consider house built in the year 2005 as new houses.45 In our scenarios, an
average new building should ideally demand less than half of the energy of the
average existing building.
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ecif
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Existing SFHExisting MFHNew SFHNew MFH
Figure 33: Specific-heating demand of an average residential house for an oil price of 75 US$2000/bbl and
without a primary energy constraint.
Secondly, we notice a major difference between the two scenarios with respect to
possible demand reductions of the various house types. Whereas the average
demand of existing buildings is additionally reduced by about 20 PJ (e.g. existing
SFH reduces from 340 MJ/m2 to 320 MJ/m2), the average demand is additionally
reduced by around 60 PJ for new buildings (e.g. new SFH reduces from more than
170 MJ/m2 to less than 115 MJ/m2). Yet, the additional reduction of 20 PJ implies a
tremendous effort to improve the existing building stock insulation because, on the
one hand, only about 30 % of the existing building stock can be renovated in 50
years and because, on the other hand, the absolute reduction is much higher (e.g for
existing SFH of less than 400 MJ/m2 to less than 320 MJ/m2).
45 Note that due to modelling constraints, we consider houses built in the year 2005 as new houses.
Evaluating intermediate steps towards the 2000-Watt society 69
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Existing SFHExisting MFHNew SFHNew MFH
Figure 34: Specific-heating demand of an average residential house for an oil price of 75 US$2000/bbl and a
primary energy constraint of 3.5 kW/Cap.
Figure 35 depicts the over-time final-energy consumption of the RH sector for an oil
price of 75 US$2000/bbl and a kW/Cap target of 3.5. The consumption reduces from
nearly 168 PJ to 44 PJ, or about 74 %. While in the first 25 year fossil technologies
still dominate the RH sector, in the second quarter of the century, fossil energy loses
importance drastically. Heat pumps and district heating systems start to dominate the
market more and more. In 2050, the penetration of these technologies is strong
enough such that fossil based-technologies lose all their market shares. The RH
sector is basically CO2 free. In the figure, we can also see the amount of saved
energy due to an increasing utilization of energy-saving option. Note that the
depicted amount of saved energy just fulfils an illustrative purpose and is estimated
using an useful to final energy conversion factor of 100%.
Evaluating intermediate steps towards the 2000-Watt society 70
0
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Other Heating Biomass Stoves District Heating Electrical Resistance
Heat Pump Electric Gas Heating Oil Heating Saved Energy
Residential heating technologies (including saved energy):
Figure 35: Detailed final-energy consumption of the residential heating sector [PJ] for an oil price of 75
US$2000/bbl and a primary energy target of 3.5 kW/Cap in 2050.
Figure 36 compares the per unit increase/decrease of useful-energy demand (UED),
final energy (FE) consumption and ERFA (Energy Reference Floor Area). In
Switzerland a sizeable amount of new buildings will be constructed. As a result the
ERFA constantly increases over time. On the contrary, we see the UED decreasing
over time. Instalments of energy-saving measurements in Swiss households
constantly rise. Each energy-saving instalment (energy conservation in buildings)
reduces the specific energy demand, which in the end reduces the total UED.
Without any installations of energy-saving measures, the energy demand would
increase proportionally to the ERFA. At the same time, the final-energy consumption
reduces drastically to about 25 % of the consumption in the year 2000. Additionally to
the reduced demand, investments into high-efficient end-use technologies and fuel
substitution show an effect here, see previous figure.
Evaluating intermediate steps towards the 2000-Watt society 71
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per
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%]
Energy Demand Final Energy Consumption ERFA
Figure 36: Comparison of energy demand, final energy consumption and ERFA for an oil price of 75
US$2000/bbl and a primary energy target of 3.5 kW/Cap in 2050.
The transportation sector
The second end-use sector the author contemplates in detail is the transportation
sector. Again, at first we illustrate a general consumption overview before going into
details of the passenger car sector being the major energy consumer.
Figure 37 shows the total final-energy consumption in the year 2050 for various oil
prices and kW/Cap targets. For no kW/Cap target scenarios, the FE consumption
remains relatively stable. Only for very high oil prices, we see a reduction of the total
consumption.46 Therefore, despite oil-price increases the total efficiency of the
transportation sector does not improve significantly. The contrary effect is observed
looking at severe kW/Cap targets. Reaching a FE consumption of about 250 PJ, the
sector undergoes an energy-efficiency improvement of around 20 %. Note that in
general we witness a notably lower energy reduction over time in the transportation
sector compared to the residential sector.
46 Note that the price elasticity assumed to be zero for this particular analysis.
Evaluating intermediate steps towards the 2000-Watt society 72
No limit5
4.54
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]
[kW/Cap]
Primary energy target 2050
[US$2000/bbl]
Oil price
2050
300-320280-300260-280240-260220-240200-220
Figure 37: Final-energy consumption of the transport sector in 2050.
The same energy-reduction effect, we observe for the total FE consumption in the
transportation sector, we also see looking at passenger cars, see Figure 38. For high
oil prices, without any kW/Cap targets, the consumption reduced by only 10 PJ.
Scenarios with (or combination with) high kW/Cap targets undergo consumption
reductions to less than110 PJ.
Reaching stringent kW/Cap targets imply on the one hand energy-consumption
reductions and on the other hand a complete modernisation of the present
passenger-car fleet. Figure 39 shows the detailed implication of a 3.5 KW/Cap target
for an oil price of 75 US$2000/bbl. Currently we see a domination of gasoline and
partially diesel fuelled internal-combustion-engines (ICE) cars. Over time this
domination declines and we can identify three distinct effects. Firstly, gasoline fuelled
cars are reduced to marginal amounts. Secondly, ICE cars are replaced by the hybrid
technology. Hybrid diesel and hybrid natural gas cars have the largest market shares
in 2050. Gasoline hybrid cars only play a minor role due to the comparatively low
efficiency. Thirdly, hydrogen cars start to take off, having an initial market penetration
in 2045.
Evaluating intermediate steps towards the 2000-Watt society 73
No limit5
4.54
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[kW/Cap]
Primary energy target 2050
[US$2000/bbl]
Oil price
2050
130-140120-130110-120100-11090-10080-9070-8060-70
Figure 38: Final-energy consumption of passenger cars in 2050.
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Hydrogen Fuel CellHydrogen HybridNatural Gas HybridGasoline HybridGasoline ICEDiesel HybridDiesel ICE
Engine drives:
Figure 39: Detailed final-energy consumption of passenger cars [PJ] for an oil price of 75 US$2000/bbl and a
primary energy target of 3.5 kW/Cap in 2050.47
47 ICE refers to Internal Combustion Engine.
Evaluating intermediate steps towards the 2000-Watt society 74
4.3 Importance of alternative future scenarios with carbon (CO2)
restrictions
The results presented so far emphasise on the evaluation of the intermediate steps
towards the 2000-Watt society for various oil prices. The question remains how
beneficial in terms of CO2 emissions and costs the vision of a 2000-Watt society is for
Switzerland? Therefore, in this section we analyse alternative CO2-restricting
scenarios and compare these to the results presented above. These CO2 restrictions
are implemented in combination with kW/Cap restrictions as well as without a
kW/Cap target (only CO2 emissions are limited). In this section, the author elaborates
and draws conclusions based on this all-embracing sensitivity analysis on kW/Cap
and CO2 targets as well as based on costs to the society.48 Results are focused on
selected but comprehensive PEC energy balances due the amount of data generated
by the model. Detailed results can be found in the appendix 5.
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Past emissionsBaseline emissionsKyoto target reduction5% reduction constraint10% reduction constraint
Swiss Kyoto target in 2010
Figure 40: CO2 emission targets.
48 Costs in this context refer to the discounted sum of the annual costs minus revenues. They are calculated as follows: Investment costs + Costs for sunk material during construction time + Variable costs + Fix operating and maintenance costs + Surveillance costs + Decommissioning costs + Taxes – Subsidies - Recuperation of sunk material - Salvage value.
Evaluating intermediate steps towards the 2000-Watt society 75
Figure 40 depicts CO2 emissions49 of the baseline scenario and of the CO2 restricted
scenarios. In the baseline scenario (‘Baseline Emissions’), the emissions increase to
more than 45 Mt in 2005 and in 2010 and decrease thereafter. According to the
baseline scenario, in the year 2050 Switzerland will reach the CO2 emission level of
the year 1990. However, even by reaching this target, Switzerland still fails to
achieve the Swiss Kyoto commitments - a 10 % reduction of the 1990 levels by
2010.[3] Additionally, the figure illustrates two policy scenarios with constraints on
CO2 emissions. In all scenarios, the author assumes that Switzerland meets the CO2
Kyoto target in the year 2010. Afterwards, a reduction of 5 and 10 % per decade is
assumed. The 5 % per decade reduction is comparable to a ‘Kyoto forever’ emission
reduction. In the following paragraphs we refer to the scenarios as 5 % and 10 %
reduction scenarios.
Figure 41 shows on the left-hand side the baseline scenario with an oil price of 50
US$2000/bbl in the year 2050. This scenario excludes any CO2 and any kW/Cap
constraints. The baseline is compared to two additional scenarios, the first with a 3.5
kW/Cap constraint, the second with a CO2 reduction target (limit) of 5 %. The
baseline PEC consumption is 5.34 kW/Cap. Switzerland is dominated by fossil fuels
and nuclear as well as hydro power. Fossil fuels, with a total share of 55 %, are the
largest contributor to the PEC consumption. Renewables only play a subordinate role
with a share of less than 6 %.
The implementation of a 3.5 kW/Cap Society, without any CO2 constraints, results in
a PEC reduction of 35 %. However, this constraint (cost-optimally) shows only a
moderate decrease of fossil fuels from 2.91 to 2.35 kW/Cap, or 19%. The energy
system still largely depends of fossil fuels. Despite that the total amount of fossil-
energy use slightly decreases, the share of fossil increases to 67 %. Neither
renewable energies (renewables) nor nuclear power are supported by this target.
Energy-efficiency improvements and the implementation of energy saving measures
play an important role. A positive aspect is the obtained CO2 emissions by reducing
the PEC consumption to 3.5 kW/Cap. The emission reduction nearly corresponds to
a 5 % reduction scenario.
49 In this context CO2 emissions are energy-related CO2 emissions as presented by the Swiss Federal Office of Energy [1]. The reader should bear in mind that the energy-related CO2 emissions of the year 2000 have been calibrated to the figures reported by [1], i.e. 44.4 Mt CO2. Therefore, they differ from the CO2 emissions estimated by FOEN [3] following the principles of the CO2 law and the Kyoto protocol.
Evaluating intermediate steps towards the 2000-Watt society 76
Targeting a CO2 reduction of 5 % (per decade) leads to a much higher PEC
consumption compared to the kW/Cap scenario. The consumption reduces only
slightly from 5.34 to 4.88 kW/Cap. Thereby, the reduction of fossil fuels is similar to
the 3.5 kW/Cap scenario. In comparison to the kW/Cap scenario, we see a larger use
of oil products and a reduced use of natural gas. Furthermore, renewables are
supported by this scenario to a large extent. The amount of renewable energies
consumed nearly doubles compared to the baseline. This compensates for the higher
use of oil and oil products. Nuclear energy remains constant like in the baseline
scenario.
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No CO2 limit No CO2 limit CO2 reduction of 5% perdecade
Pri
mary
En
erg
y [
kW
/Cap
ita
]
Other RenewablesHydroNuclearNatural Gas OilCoal
Energy carriers:
Figure 41: Primary energy per capita [kW/Capita] for an oil price of 50 US$2000/bbl in 2050.
Looking at the illustrated scenarios, we come to the following conclusion. If the aim is
to reduce emissions moderately (by 5 % per decade) and (by doing so) the
dependency on fossil fuels, there are two options to accomplish this target.50 The first
option is to target a reduction of the PEC consumption. By increasing the overall
efficiency of the energy system, the emissions obtained nearly correspond to the 5 %
reduction scenario. In this scenario, the PEC consumption is lowered by about 35 %
and the final-energy consumption by about 18 %. Note that the high PEC reduction
levels are also due to switching from nuclear reactors to (high efficient) gas turbines.
50 This target also resembles a ‘starting point’ to become independent of fossil fuel. To achieve a noticeable independence more severe objectives must be targeted.
Evaluating intermediate steps towards the 2000-Watt society 77
The second option is to enforce a CO2 emission limits of 5 %. The effect is a stronger
utilization of biomass technologies and the introduction of new nuclear-energy plants,
provided there is an appropriate political support. The overall energy-efficiency of
Switzerland must also be improved in this scenario; nevertheless, not to the same
extend as in the 3.5kW/Cap scenario.
An important question circles around the additional costs to achieve the energy
consumption associated with the illustrated scenarios. In the model the additional
cost is expressed as the ‘additional total discounted energy-system cost’. To achieve
a CO2 reduction as enforced by the 5 % reduction scenario is cheaper than to realize
a 3.5 kW/Cap society in 2050, see appendix 5.4. If the two targets were to be
combined (a 5 % CO2 reduction and a 3.5 % kW/Cap society), the costs to reach this
combined target is even higher. In fact it would be cheaper to reach a 10 % CO2
reduction, without a kW/Cap target, than to reach the combined 5 % CO2 and 3.5
kW/Cap target.51 Therefore, by just looking at the costs a kW/Cap is questionable.
Influence of the oil price
In the following paragraphs, we look at the influence of oil prices on the results
obtained so far. In order to get a clear picture, we compare several scenarios in
Figure 42. On the one hand, we contrast the baseline scenario with a scenario
having the same assumptions, except for a higher oil price. In other words, the two
scenarios do not include CO2 reductions and do not include kW/Cap targets. They
can be referred to as the ‘no constraint’ scenarios. On the other hand, we contrast
two ‘high constrained’ scenarios. These scenarios have both a strong CO2 reduction
target of 10 % as well as a 3.5 kW/Cap target. Again the difference between the two
scenarios is the oil price of 50 and 100 US$2000/bbl respectively.
On the one hand, the ‘no constraint’ scenarios reveal an apparent difference when
the results are compared to each other. When the oil price increases from 50 to 100
US$2000/bbl we see a reduction of the primary-energy consumption of 7%. Especially,
the fossil consumption reduces by 18% and use of the renewable energies increases
by 46%. On the other hand, the ‘high constrained’ scenarios show only relative
insignificant changes of the energy system when we compare these to the changes
of the ‘no constraint’ scenarios. For an oil price increase from 50 to 100US$2000/bbl,
51 This result is obtained independently of the oil price, as explained below.
Evaluating intermediate steps towards the 2000-Watt society 78
we can identify an increase in the use of gas by 4% and a reduction of oil and oil
products by 3%. Generally the conclusion can be drawn, the more constrained
scenarios are (CO2 and kW/Cap) the less influential is the oil price on the Swiss
energy system.
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3.5 kW/Cap target 3.5 kW/Cap target
No CO2 limit No CO2 limit CO2 reduction of 10%per decade
CO2 reduction of 10%per decade
Oil Price of 50US$2000
Oil Price of100US$2000
Oil Price of 50US$2000
Oil Price of100US$2000
Pri
mary
En
erg
y [
kW
/Cap
ita]
Other RenewablesHydroNuclearNatural Gas OilCoal
Energy carriers:
Figure 42: Primary energy per capita [kW/Cap] consumption for oil prices of 50 and 100US$/bbl2000, no and
10% per decade CO2 reductions as well as no and 3.5kW/Cap primary energy constraints.
Influence of the carbon (CO2) constraint
As seen in Figure 41, the results augment an intensified use of renewables and a
constant contribution of nuclear energy for moderate CO2 constraints. On the
contrary, kW/Cap targets rather favour energy-efficiency measures. The question
remains, what is the influence of strong CO2 constraints? This can be best explained
by looking at combined CO2 and kW/Cap targets, see Figure 43. The figure depicts
the PEC consumption for an oil price of 75 US$2000/bbl52, a 3.5 kW/Cap target and
intensifying CO2 limits. In the kW/Cap scenario without CO2 limits, the results nearly
reach a 5 % CO2 reduction automatically as explained above. This is the reason why
the first two scenarios on the left hand side of the figure show similar results.
However, if Switzerland aims at more profound emission reductions in the 2050, we
52 For strong scenario constraints the obtained results are only little sensitive to the price of oil in the year 2050.
Evaluating intermediate steps towards the 2000-Watt society 79
see substantial changes of the Swiss energy system. Compared to the non-CO2
constrained scenario, in the 15 % CO2 reduction scenario the amount of renewables
increases by a factor of 3.5. Nuclear energy becomes increasingly indispensable.
The use of fossil fuels, especially natural gas, reduces significantly. Fossil energies
reduce from 2.35 to 1.36 kW/Cap, which is equivalent to a 42 % reduction. Thus,
even at the kW/Cap constraint of 3.5, CO2 emissions can still be reduced by
switching to cleaner technologies. However, this is only possible at a sizeable cost
(see total-system cost increase in appendix 5.4).
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CO2 reduction of10% per decade
CO2 reduction of15% per decade
Pri
ma
ry E
ne
rgy
[k
W/C
ap
ita
]
Other RenewablesHydroNuclearNatural Gas OilCoal
Energy carriers:
Figure 43: Primary energy per capita [kW/Cap] consumption for an Oil Price of 75 US$/bbl2000, various CO2
limits and a primary per capita constraint of 3.5kW/Cap.
4.4 Energy balances of the 3500-Watt society with a 10% per
decade CO2 restrictions
In the last section we saw that PE fuel-consumption shares vary depending on the
CO2-reduction target even if the total PE consumption is constrained to the same
level. Therefore, in this section we examine the effects of combined kW/Cap and CO2
targets in detail. For the analysis we exemplary choose an oil price of 75 US$2000/bbl
in the year 2050. Additionally we selected the strongest possible kW/Cap constraint
in the year 2050 (3.5 kW/Cap) and a CO2 target equivalent to a 10 % reduction (per
Evaluating intermediate steps towards the 2000-Watt society 80
decade). The results obtained by this analysis are compared with scenario results of
the previous sections.
Primary-energy balances
Figure 44 compares the over time PEC consumptions of the 3.5 kW/Cap and 10 %
CO2-reduction scenarios to the reference case. The reference case has neither CO2
nor kW/Cap targets. In 2050, the reference case has a PEC consumption of 5.32
kW/Cap, while both other scenarios reach 3.5 kW/Cap. Despite the fact that both
kW/Cap limited scenarios have the same PEC consumptions in 2050, the PEC
consumptions of the two scenarios vary significantly in earlier time periods. The 10 %
CO2 reduction scenario has a lower consumption before 2050. Investments into more
efficient technologies are necessary already during the first quarter of the century.
Moreover, despite the equal amount of PEC consumption of the two kW/Cap target
scenarios in the year 2050, the fuel consumption shares differ largely. In order to
reach high CO2 reductions and strong kW/Cap target, the energy mix consists of
more renewable energies and nuclear power as well as less fossil fuels, see
appendix 5.1. Oil products are substituted by natural gas to a large extent.
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No CO2 limit and no No kW/Cap target "reference case"
No CO2 limit with a 3.5 kW/Cap target
CO2 reduction of 10% per decade with a 3.5 kW/Cap target
Figure 44: Primary energy per capita [kW/Cap] development for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets in the year
2050 at an oil price of 75 US$2000/bbl in the year 2050.
Evaluating intermediate steps towards the 2000-Watt society 81
Final-energy balances and the end-use sectors
The FE consumption development between 2000 and 2050 shows similar effects
compared to the PEC consumption. In the year 2050 the FE consumption of both 3.5
kW/Cap scenarios is around 650 PJ. However in earlier time periods, the scenario
with a 10 % CO2 reduction target has a lower total FE consumption. Looking at the
FE fuel share, we see a shift of fuels. Especially the use of oil products reduces,
while the use of natural gas and renewable energies increases, see appendix 5.2.
This is the direct consequence of technological changes in the end-use sectors,
which can be best illustrated by looking at the residential and transportation sector
and more specifically at the RH technologies and the passenger car modes.
Figure 45 shows the FE consumption of the RH sector for the 3.5 kW/Cap and 10 %
CO2 reduction scenario. Already during the first quarter of the century, we observe
strong reductions of the FE consumption. Compared to the scenario without any CO2
reduction targets (see previous section), in the year 2020 the consumption amounts
to less than 100 PJ instead of 132 PJ. The amount of fossil-heating systems reduces
drastically. Ten year later, the RH heating sector is independent of oil heating
systems. The rising market penetration of heat pumps and district-heating systems is
unavoidable. Additionally, the amount of saved energy originating from improved
insulation standards is higher. Using a useful to final conversion efficiency of 100%,
the amount of saved energy grows from 44 to 53 PJ in 2050.
Figure 47 depicts the reduction of FE consumption and compares it to the per unit
increase/decrease of energy demand and ERFA (Energy Reference Floor Area).
While the ERFA constantly increases over time, the energy demand and the FE
decrease remarkably. Compared to Figure 36 (an analysis of the scenario with a 3.5
kW/Cap target but without CO2 reduction goals), the energy demand reduces further
to 89% of the current (year 2000) energy demand. To reach this target, significant
energy-saving measures must be taken as soon as possible in Switzerland.
Evaluating intermediate steps towards the 2000-Watt society 82
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Other Heating Biomass Stoves District Heating Electrical Resistance
Heat Pump Electric Gas Heating Oil Heating Saved Energy
Residential heating technologies (including saved energy):
Figure 45: Detailed final-energy consumption of the residential heating sector [PJ] for an oil price of 75
US$2000/bbl, a primary energy target of 3.5 kW/Cap in 2050 and a CO2 reduction target of 10 %.
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Figure 46: Comparison of energy demand, final energy consumption and ERFA for an oil price of 75
US$2000/bbl, a primary energy target of 3.5 kW/Cap in 2050 and a CO2 reduction target of 10 %.
Comparably to the changes in the RH sector, the passenger car sub-sector also
undergoes structural changes when CO2 emissions are limited additional to the 3.5
Evaluating intermediate steps towards the 2000-Watt society 83
kW/Cap target. As anticipated, we observe only small energy-efficiency gains of 3%
in the year 2050 compared to the non-CO2 limited scenario. The 3.5 kW/Cap already
promotes high efficiency gain without CO2 limits. Yet, the additional CO2 restriction
fosters an earlier and more profound readiness for marketing of natural gas and
hydrogen cars. In the year 2020 natural gas (ICE and Hydrid) cars have a total share
of 15 % consuming 24 PJ of FE in total. Simultaneously, the share of gasoline
decreases. High efficient diesel ICE and hybrid cars increase their shares until 2040.
Especially diesel and natural gas hybrid cars will play an important role in 2050.
Knowing that cars fuelled by hydrogen largely represent a future technology for the
second half of this century, the hybrid and fuel cell versions have a stronger and in
addition earlier market penetration. Five year earlier than in the non-CO2 limited
scenario, in the year 2040, we view the first introduction of hydrogen cars.
0
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H2 Hybrid Fuel CellH2 Fuel CellH2 HybridNatural Gas HybridNatural GasGasoline HybridGasoline ICEDiesel HybridDiesel ICE
Engine drives:
Figure 47: Detailed final-energy consumption of passenger cars [PJ] for an oil price of 75 US$2000/bbl and a
primary energy target of 3.5 kW/Cap in 2050 and a CO2 reduction target of 10 %. 53
Electricity balances
A prime example for an efficient substitution of fossil energy with electricity is heat
pumps. Also in industrial processes electricity can often substitute oil products and
53 ICE refers to Internal Combustion Engine. H2 refers to Hydrogen Cars.
Evaluating intermediate steps towards the 2000-Watt society 84
natural gas. As can be seen in Figure 48, strong CO2 reductions increase the
electricity production and therefore the share of electricity in end-use sectors rises. A
CO2 reduction equivalent to 10 % per decade results in an electricity production
increase of more than 30 % compared to the year 2000. Excluding the amount of
electricity which was exported in 2000, we observe an increase of more than 45 % by
2050. In any case, the electricity production will increase from a today’s level of 57
TWh to 70 -85 TWh in 2050 even with a PEC consumption reduction to 3.5 kW/Cap,
which is mainly due to the extensive use of heat pumps in buildings (see Figure 46).
Current debates on nuclear power increasingly rise public awareness of whether or
not Switzerland should invest in new nuclear power station or alternative natural gas
CHP plants.[84,85] Analyzing this aspect from a cost-optimal point of view, we obtain
specific results. Without any CO2 and PEC constraints, nuclear power is visibly the
most competitive option for electricity production. The same results are attained by
implementing CO2 reduction targets. However, the option of nuclear power
disappears for strong PEC constraints. The reason is the comparably low efficiency
of nuclear power stations. Conventional and especially co-generation plants produce
electricity (and heat) with much higher efficiencies. While co-generation plants can
have an overall efficiency of up to 75 %, conventional electricity generation
technologies have efficiency around 50 %. [86,87]. However, existing nuclear power
stations have an efficiency of only 33% which might be increased to 44% in the
future, depending on the reactor type.[51,88]
The figure also shows that the technology mix for the production of electricity may be
not only determined by defining a CO2 reduction and PEC target separately. An
effective measure against climate change is especially the 10 % CO2 reduction
combined with a PEC target. This target demands massive investments in renewable
energies and a continuing reliance on nuclear energy. At the same time, the hydro
power potential should be used to the full possible extent.
Evaluating intermediate steps towards the 2000-Watt society 85
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90Year 2000 Year 2050 Year 2050 Year 2050 Year 2050
No kW/Cap target(5.17 kW/Cap)
No kW/Cap target(4.83 kW/Cap) 3.5 kW/Cap target 3.5 kW/Cap target
No CO2 limit CO2 reduction of10% per decade No CO2 limit
CO2 reduction of10% per decade
Ele
ctr
icit
y P
rod
ucti
on
[T
Wh
]Solar Power
Wind Turbines
BiomassCogenerationNatural GasCogenerationThermalCogenerationBiomass Thermal
ConventionalThermal and OthersNuclear Power
Hydro Power
Net Imports
Electricity production technologies:
Figure 48: Electricity production [TWh] for an oil price of 75 US$2000/bbl and various CO2 emission and
primary energy targets.
Renewable technologies54
Sustainability is an attempt to provide the best outcomes for the human and natural
environments both now and into the indefinite future.[90] In this context renewable
energies and their conversion products are indispensable and should be used to the
maximum possible extent. Nevertheless, sustainability does not include financial
aspects; hence renewable-energies products generated in a sustainable manner are
most often cost-effective only under a specific framework of regulations. From a
macroeconomic cost-optimal point of view the exploitation of renewable energies in
Switzerland varies strongly – with the exception of hydro power. Of all renewable
technologies hydro power is the most cost-effective technology. In all scenarios the
total additional hydro-power potential is fully used. Figure 49 illustrates the PE
consumption of renewable energies for various oil prices and CO2 emission reduction
targets.
The consumption of renewable energies rises in all scenarios compared to 2000
levels. Moderate increases of 32 % until 2050 are realized for the non CO2 and non
54 Resources that are regenerative or for all practical purposes cannot be depleted.[89]
Evaluating intermediate steps towards the 2000-Watt society 86
kW/Cap limited scenario, see column two. The strongest increase we observe for a
CO2 limit of 10 %. In this scenario, the PE consumption of renewable energies rises
by more than 75 % compared to 2000 levels. In total renewable energies add up to a
PE-consumption share of more than 40 %. Major contributors responsible for this
increase are wood (biomass) for the production of electricity and solar-thermal
energy for the production of hot water in the residential sector.
In essence, a PEC target corresponds to an energy-efficiency target. This energy-
efficiency target also has an influence on the use of renewable energies, as can be
seen by looking at column four. The PEC consumption target of 3.5 kW/Cap
arguments only marginal renewable-energy increases compared to the year 2000.
While we still observe a relatively small increase in the use of solar-thermal energy
and hydro power, all other renewable energy technologies cannot gain any shares.
The combination of strong kW/Cap targets and strong CO2 target fosters the
utilization of renewable energy, especially wood. More than 45 % of PE has a
renewable-energy origin. Therefore we identify a significant correlation between the
use of renewable energies and CO2 targets and virtually no correlation between the
use of renewable energies and PEC targets.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
No CO2 limit 10% CO2 limit No CO2 limit 10% CO2 limit
No kW/Cap target(5.17 kW/Cap)
No kW/Cap target(4.83 kW/Cap)
3.5 kW/Cap target 3.5 kW/Cap target
Year 2000 Year 2050 Year 2050 Year 2050 Year 2050
Pri
mary
-En
erg
y C
on
su
mp
tio
n [
PJ]
OtherWindWasteWoodSolar ThermalHydro Power
Energy carriers:
Figure 49: Primary energy consumption [PJ] of renewable energy technologies for various CO2 and kW/Cap
limits and an oil price of 75 US$2000/bbl.
Evaluating intermediate steps towards the 2000-Watt society 87
As identified in the previous figure, wood (biomass) technologies are the major new-
renewable-energy source. Hydropower by far still has the largest renewable shares
but wood is the renewable energy fuel, which registers the largest increases.
Figure 50 shows the PE consumption of biomass from 2000 to 2050 for an oil price of
75 US$2000/bbl, a 3.5 kW/Cap as well as a 10 % CO2 reduction target. The figure
shows two peaks for the use of wood, the first in 2015 and the second in 2050.
According to the scenario assumption, in 2010 the Kyoto target (a CO2 reduction of
10 % compared to 1990) must be met. This target can only be met with a drastic
increase in the use of biomass to mainly satisfy the increasing electricity demand. A
CO2 compensation in other sectors, such as the residential or transportation sector,
are theoretically also possible but imply a too significant and too expensive
replacement of already exiting technologies in a short period of time. After the peak
consumption in 2015, the wood consumption declines because of investments in
more cost-effective and more efficient technologies to satisfy the constantly
increasing CO2 reduction. A transition time until 2025 is sufficient for investments in
less CO2 consuming technologies available at lower costs. Towards the middle of the
century the wood consumption peaks again due to the magnitude of CO2 reduction of
10 % per decade. In 2050, the full wood potential in Switzerland is used.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Pri
mary
-En
erg
y C
on
su
mp
tio
n [
PJ]
Combustion
Room and Building Heating: Chimeny, stove, oven
Room and Building Heating: Pellet
Other Uses
Technologicaluses:
Figure 50: Primary energy consumption [PJ] of wood technologies for an oil price of 75 US$2000/bbl. A 3.5
kW/Cap target and 10 % CO2 reduction are applied.
Evaluating intermediate steps towards the 2000-Watt society 88
Cost analysis
The cost analysis in MAKRAL type of model is based on total-system costs.[91]
Total-system costs refer to the discounted sum of the annual costs minus revenues.
In a simplified way, they are calculated as follows:
Investment costs
+ Costs for sunk material during construction time
+ Variable costs
+ Fix operating and maintenance costs
+ Surveillance costs
+ Decommissioning costs
+ Taxes
- Subsidies
- Recuperation of sunk material
- Salvage value
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
5.2 kW (NoLimit)
4.9 kW (NoLimit)
4.8 kW (NoLimit)
3.5 kW target 3.5 kW target 3.5 kW target
No CO2 limit CO2 reductionof 5 % per
decade
CO2 reductionof 10 % per
decade
No CO2 limit CO2 reductionof 5 % per
decade
CO2 reductionof 10 % per
decade
Ad
dit
ion
al T
ota
l-S
yste
m C
osts
[b
illio
n U
S$
20
00]
Figure 51: Total-system-costs increase for an Oil Price of 75US$2000/bbl.
In the context of this analysis we show the additional total system-costs. Additional
because the costs shown here refer to cost increases of each specifically constrained
scenario (CO2 or kW/Cap) compared to a reference case. The reference case
Evaluating intermediate steps towards the 2000-Watt society 89
represents the non (CO2 or kW/Cap) constrained scenario at a specific oil price.
Figure 51 shows the total-system cost increases for various scenarios at an oil price
of 75 US$2000/bbl in 2050. The figure is separated into two parts. The columns on the
left hand side show costs of the reference case and CO2 constrained scenarios. The
columns on the right hand side show costs of 3.5 kW/Cap constrained scenarios in
combination with various CO2 targets.
Obviously structural changes of the energy system cost large amounts of money. A
CO2 reduction of 5 % per decade involves costs of more than 15 billion US$2000. To
achieve more ambitious CO2 targets result in a cost increase of nearly 25 billion
US$2000. The same cost-increase effects can be also observed at higher oil prices,
see appendix 5.4. However, for high oil prices more stringent CO2 targets can be
obtained at lower cost. More efficient (less CO2 consuming technologies) already
become competitive in the reference case without any specified CO2 target. For
instance at an oil price of 125 US$2000/bbl, the costs to achieve a 10 % reduction
amount to 16 billion US$2000.
Scenarios with combined CO2 and kW/Cap also show similar price increases but at a
higher cost level. The combined scenario with a 5 % CO2 reduction has higher costs
than the 10 % CO2 reduction of without any kW/Cap targets. Moreover to reach very
high CO2 targets in combination with a 3.5 kW/Cap target rises the costs in total to 40
billion US$2000. Moreover, note also that the combined 3.5 kW/Cap and 10 % CO2
reduction scenario costs less than the two signal constraint scenarios 3.5 kW/Cap
and 10 % CO2 added up - about 43 billion US$2000. This difference is an indicator for
technological synergies of combined-targets scenarios.
When does Switzerland have to take action to achieve specific (political) targets?
The answer to the question largely depends on the type of target. According to our
definition of the CO2 limits, Switzerland has to meet her voluntarily Kyoto
commitments in 2010.[92] Therefore, strict CO2 targets require taking action as soon
as possible, which is reflected by high cost increases at the same time, see Figure
52. Surprisingly, these large investments pay out towards the middle of the century
having even smaller costs than the reference case. On the contrary, a long term
target such as the 3.5 kW/Cap society requires major investments towards the
middle of the century. As mentioned above, the combined CO2 and kW/Cap
scenarios are the most expensive ones. Moreover, in order to reach these targets
high investments are necessary in virtually all time periods.
Evaluating intermediate steps towards the 2000-Watt society 90
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Total
Ad
dit
ion
al T
ota
l-S
yste
m C
osts
[b
illio
n U
S$
20
00]
No kW/Cap target and 10 % CO2 limit 3.5 kW/Cap target and no CO2 limit 3.5 kW/Cap target and 10 % CO2 limit
Figure 52: Annual total-system-costs increase for an oil price of 75US$2000/bbl.
4.5 Conclusions
The vision of a 2000-Watt society should be seen as a long-term goal. During the first
half of the century only intermediate steps towards the 2000-Watt society can be
achieved. The analysis shows that until 2050, a 3500-Watt society can be reached at
maximum. Even this intermediate step is associated with a considerable
transformation of the Swiss energy system. The major transformation concerns
energy-transformation and energy-demand technologies. With regards to energy-
transformation technology the issue arises whether Switzerland should invest in
nuclear energy or high-efficient gas-fired CHP plants. By merely looking at the PEC
consumption target, CHP plants are favoured with the burden of increase of CO2
emissions. With regards to energy-demand technologies drastic transformation are
required.
In detail we investigated transformation changes in two end-use sectors, the
residential and transportation sector. The residential sector has the largest energy
reduction potential. The total FE consumption of this sector could reduce to about
100 PJ in 2050. At an oil price of 75 US$2000/bbl, this implies a reduction of 45 %.
Major energy reductions are achieved in the RH sub-sector. Although this sub-sector
remains to be the main consumer by looking at the consumption shares in 2050, RH
Evaluating intermediate steps towards the 2000-Watt society 91
consumes only 43 PJ. This is only possible because of major investments in energy
saving measures as well as fuel and technology switches to heat pumps and district
heating systems. The transportation sector has a smaller but still remarkable energy
reduction potential of 20 % in 2050. Passenger cars, which remain to be the largest
consumers, undergo a sustainable fuel and technology transformation as well. While
this sub-sector consumes more than 160 PJ FE in 2000, the consumption is reduced
to around 110 PJ in 2050. Natural gas and diesel hybrid as well as high-efficient
diesel ICE cars would be the technological choice of the future. Additionally,
hydrogen cars would have an initial market penetration.
Supporting a 3500-Watt society is an energy-efficiency target. This energy-efficiency
target has restrictions in connection with CO2 emissions reductions. A 3500-Watt
society reduces CO2 emissions by nearly (little less than) 5 % per decade. More
stringent emission reductions require the formulation of extra CO2 goals. Because of
this reason, we investigated combined scenarios on CO2 emissions and PEC
consumption in more detail. These scenarios show that, as the constraints on PEC
consumption and CO2 emissions become more stringent, the contribution of nuclear
and renewable energy become increasingly indispensable. Additionally, investments
into high-efficient and at the same time less CO2 consuming end-use technologies
are necessary relatively soon from now. Such technologies are for instance fuel cells
and solar-water heaters as well as excellent energy-saving measures.
The transformation of the energy system is not cost-free. The additional costs to
reach a 3500-Watt society, including CO2 targets, amounts to 20 to 40 billion
US$2000. If the main reason to reach a 3500-Watt society was CO2 reduction, then the
target is be questionable. The costs to reach significant CO2 reductions (but
excluding a PEC constraint) are with 15 to 25 billion US$2000 much cheaper.
Switzerland has a multiple choice of future pathways. Depending on the target
behind a political decision, each choice must be evaluated thoroughly. However, if
the target is to aim at high CO2 reduction, investments into clean technologies must
be made rather sooner than later.
Complementary analyses 92
5 Complementary analyses
Although each policy instrument studied so far has been tested using a sensitivity
analysis, a more extensive parametric analysis can provide insights into the
robustness of the results. This is particularly important for key parameters that can
significantly influence outcome of the model. Nevertheless, despite the fact that a full
and comprehensive parametric analysis was beyond the scope of this thesis, a
sensitivity study on the impacts of discount rates (dr) is analysed here. This analysis
is done in section 5.1.
The future costs of hydrogen fuel-cell cars are uncertain. The retail price of fuel-cells
largely depends on the price of the fuel cells and their stack size. Therefore, we
reassessed the passenger cars sector and especially the penetration of hydrogen
fuel-cell cars using optimistic assumptions. This is done in section 5.2.
The primary-energy content of most renewable energies can be defined in several
ways and varies depending on the particular statistic. To overcome this dilemma, we
investigated different energy-conversion equivalents for renewable energies. This
analysis is done in section 5.3.
The objective of the modelling approach so far was to find a least-cost solution by
minimising the total system costs and to satisfy exogenously specified levels of
energy-service demands. However, if the demands are inelastic, the model cannot
capture the consumer’s price-induced feedbacks. From an all-embracing policy-
making point of view it is desirable that the modelling framework captures both the
flows and prices of energy commodities such that the amount of energy service
demanded corresponds to the money the consumer would be willing to pay.[93] In a
MARKAL-class model a feedback between prices and demand can be evaluated by
a partial-equilibrium analysis with elastic demands. This analysis is done in section
5.4.
In future, new biomass technologies can gain significant importance in the Swiss
energy sector. The conversion of biomass into high quality, flexible final-energy
carriers constitutes a convenient vehicle to add value to wood as an energy resource.
As a result of its neutral CO2 emissions, biomass-based energy carriers can
contribute to substitute carbon-intensive fossil fuels in the energy markets. At the
same time, greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced and benefits in terms of
security of energy supply can be achieved. Therefore, we assess the economic
Complementary analyses 93
conditions under which new biomass technologies become competitive. The focus of
this assessment is on the production of synthetic natural gas (bio-SNG) from wood in
a methanation plant. This analysis is done in section 5.5.
5.1 Sensitivity analysis on discount rates
For long-term policy making the choice of discount rate (dr) determines the present
value of these policy-induced costs (or benefits). In addition, a low dr decreases
annualized payments of investments and therefore favours capital-intensive
investments. Given the controversial issues about dr [94], we scrutinize a low dr of 3
% and a high dr of 5 %. The discount rate of 3 % is also used in the baseline
scenario. Note that MARKAL class models define two types of dr, DISCOUNT and
DISCRATE. DISCOUNT refers to the overall long-term dr for the whole economy and
must be defined for all scenarios. It is mainly used to report the discounted costs
(e.g. total system costs) to the base year. DISCRATE is associated with an individual
technology (or all technologies in a sector) and is manly used for the calculation of
the Capital Recovery Factor (CRF)55 to determine the annual payments for
investments.[96] The low and high dr values are used for both model parameters.
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
dr 5 % dr 3 % dr 5 % dr 3 %
No kW/Cap target(5.34 kW/Cap)
No kW/Cap target(5.17 kW/Cap)
3.5 kW/Cap target 3.5 kW/Cap target
Pri
mary
En
erg
y C
on
su
mp
tio
n [
kW
/Cap
ita]
RenewablesHydroNuclearNatural GasOilCoal
Energycarriers:
Figure 53: Primary energy per capita [kW/Cap] consumption for an oil price of 75 US$2000/bbl with discount
rates (dr) of 3 and 5 % as well as no kW/Cap target and a 3.5 kW/Cap target.
55 The CRF is the ratio of a constant annuity to the present value of receiving that annuity for a given length of time.[95]
Complementary analyses 94
Figure 53 illustrates the PE consumption of non kW/Cap constrained scenarios on
the left-hand side and of 3.5 kW/Cap constraint scenarios on the right-hand side. The
non-constrained scenarios show a relatively small but notable difference in the PE
consumption. By decreasing the dr from 5 to 3 % the PE consumption reduces by
little more than 3 %. At the same time the amount of oil and gas consumed in 2050 is
less due to investments in more capital-intensive and energy-efficient technologies.
In turn, the total CO2 emissions reduce by 7 % (from 40.3 to 37.7 Mt). On the
contrary the 3.5 kW/Cap constraint scenarios show in essence no difference in total
PE consumption. This effect is nicely reflected by the CO2 emissions in 2050. The
emissions differ by less than 0.3%. A strong kW/Cap constraint already demands
such capital-intensive technologies that a low dr does not show any effect.
We conclude that the dr changes have only little effect on the PE consumption,
hence on future-investment choices in Switzerland. This statement becomes even
more valid for strong kW/Cap (and CO2 targets). 3.5 kW/Cap scenarios have the
same PE consumption shares in 2050, independent of the dr used.
5.2 The influence of fuel-cells price and stack sizes on hydrogen
cars
The retail price of fuel-cells largely depends on the price of the fuel cells and their
stack size. Considering the uncertainties in fuel-cell prizes and the variety of stack
sizes, we analysed two different fuel-cell prices and stack sizes for hydrogen-driven
passenger cars. In the baseline scenario, we assumed a fuel-cell price of around 700
US$2000/kW (600 €2003/kW) in 2010, which reduces to around 115 US$2000/bbl (100
€2003/kW) until 2050.[97,98] The stack size is 80 kW. For the sensitivity run, we
assumed that the price reduces by half as well as a stack size of 50 kW. Additionally,
for the sensitivity run we assumed a PEC target of 3.5 kW/Cap and a CO2 reduction
of 10 % per decade.
The results of the baseline run are elaborated in section 4.4 in detail. In the beginning
of the century, we observed a domination of gasoline and partially diesel fuelled
internal-combustion-engines (ICE) cars. This domination declined over time,
gasoline-fuelled cars reduced to marginal amounts and ICE engines were replaced
by the hybrid technology. Hybrid diesel and hybrid natural gas cars had the largest
market shares in 2050. However, although hydrogen cars started to penetrate in
2045, this penetration remained at rather marginal levels. On the contrary, when fuel-
Complementary analyses 95
cells can be produced at lower costs the penetration of hydrogen cars increases.
This effect is supported by installing smaller-sized engines in light-vehicle passenger
cars, see Figure 54. Hydrogen fuel-cell cars reach readiness of marketing already in
the year 2030. In 2050, hydrogen fuel-cell cars could have a share of up to 21%
under these assumptions.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Fin
al-
En
erg
y C
on
su
mp
tio
n [
PJ]
H2 Hybrid Fuel CellH2 Fuel CellH2 HybridNatural Gas HybridNatural GasGasoline HybridGasoline ICEDiesel HybridDiesel ICE
Engine drives:
Figure 54: Final-energy consumption of passenger cars at an oil price of 75US2000/bbl, 3.5 kW/Cap primary
energy and a CO2 reduction constraint of 10 % per decade. Fuel stack price is assumed to be 300US$/kW in
2010 and the size of one fuel cell is 50 kW.
We can summarize that the market penetration and the readiness for marketing of
hydrogen fuel-cell cars largely depends on the price of fuel cells and the size
installed in each car. If it is possible to produce light-vehicles at low costs, hydrogen
cars could reach significant market shares in the second quarter of the 21st century.
5.3 The influence of renewable energy-conversion equivalents on
the production of electricity
Primary energy is defined as the energy content of an energy carrier, which has not
been transformed by any means. This definition causes a dilemma when looking at
renewable energies. Most renewable energies such as wind, photovoltaic or
hydropower are characterized by a substantial difference compared to all other fossil
energy carriers (biomass being the only exception). While fossil energy carriers and
Complementary analyses 96
biomass have specific (measureable) energy contents, e.g. [MJ/toncoal] or [MJ/m3Gas],
other renewable energies are characterised by energy flows, e.g. wind velocity [m/s]
(Pwind ~ v3 [99]) or solar radiation [kW/m2] (Psolar = 1.366 kW/m2 [100]). Therefore, to
be mathematically correct, the primary-energy use of fossil energy carriers can not
be added to the primary-energy use of renewable energy.
To overcome this dilemma, primary-to-final energy-conversion equivalents are
introduced for statistical purposes. These equivalents could for instance relate to the
technical efficiency or to fossil or other equivalents56. The 2004 Swiss renewable
energy statistics still defined various conversion factors for different renewable
energy technologies (e.g. hydropower 80 %, photovoltaic 11 % and wind 41 %).[102]
The 2005 Swiss renewable energy statistics have been changed to IEA regulation
using an energy-conversion equivalent to 100 % for renewable energy technologies
[59,103]. So far, in SMM, we have used the fossil equivalent for renewable energy
technologies according to the standard MARKAL conversions.[101] Only for hydro
power we used the conversion equivalent of 80 % according to the older SOFE
accounting scheme.
Because of various possible energy-conversion equivalents, which could be used for
an analysis, in this section we studied the effects of a renewable energy-conversion
equivalent of 100 % (including hydro power and excluding biomass) and compared
the results to our previous scenarios. An energy-conversion equivalent of 100 %
implies that the final use of energy is equivalent to the primary use of energy. The
new scenario results are labeled ‘100 eq.’, while the previous results are labeled
‘fossil eq.’ and are shown in Figure 55.
The figure depicts the production of electricity, comparing three scenario sets. The
first set, depicted by the first two columns on the left-hand side, refers to a 10 % CO2
reduction per decade limit. The second set, the two columns in the middle, reflects
the 3.5 kW/Cap target. The third set, the two columns on the right-hand side, shows
combined CO2 reduction and kW/Cap targets. In all scenarios the demanded
electricity and therefore the choice of technologies in the end-use sectors remain
similar. The total production of electricity alters only by small amounts. The significant
difference is the choice of electricity-production technologies to satisfy the demand
for electricity.
56 The fossil-fuel equivalent for non-fossil sources is taken as the reciprocal of the average efficiency of the fossil fuel power plants, and is used for reporting the primary-energy equivalent of renewable and nuclear energy production of electricity.[101]
Complementary analyses 97
In the first scenario set, switching from the fossil-equivalent scenario to the 100 %
equivalent scenario decreases the attractiveness of biomass technologies in favour
of wind turbines. In the second set, we observe a strong decrease in natural gas
thermal production, which is replaced by solar and wind technologies. In the third
scenario set both natural gas thermal and biomass are substituted by solar and wind
technologies. Additionally, remarkable is the penetration of nuclear energy in this
scenario set.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
No kW/Captarget
No kW/Captarget
3.5 kW/Captarget
3.5 kW/Captarget
3.5 kW/Captarget
3.5 kW/Captarget
10 % CO2 red. 10 % CO2 red. No CO2 limit No CO2 limit 10 % CO2 red. 10 % CO2 red.
fossil eq. 100% eq. fossil eq. 100% eq. fossil eq. 100% eq.
Ele
ctr
icit
y P
rod
ucti
on
[T
Wh
]
Solar Power
WindTurbinesBiomass CHP
Natural GasCHPThermalCogenerationBiomassThermalNatural GasThermalNuclearPowerHydro Power
Electricity production technologies:
Figure 55: Electricity production for a fossil equivalent and a 100% conversion equivalent of renewable energy
technologies (expect for biomass technologies) at an oil price of 75US2000/bb in 2050. Various scenarios
compare combinations of a 3.5 kW/Cap primary energy and a CO2 reduction constraint of 10 % per decade.
The effect of switching from biomass and natural gas thermal technologies to solar
and wind technologies directly relates to the higher energy-conversion equivalent of
100 % compared to the fossil equivalent of 33 %. The 100 % equivalent clearly
argues in favour of the competitiveness of renewable energies. Fossil but also
biomass technologies, with much lower efficiencies than 100 %, are disadvantaged.
This is particularly illustrative in the second scenario set, i.e. the 3.5 kW/Cap
scenarios.
The third scenario set, where both CO2 and the kW/Cap targets have to be fulfilled at
the same time, shows an additional effect. In the previous two scenario sets either
biomass or natural gas was replaced. In the third set both technologies are replaced
Complementary analyses 98
with renewable energy technologies, both having 100 % energy-conversions
equivalents. Hence, for the same amount of final-energy less primary energy is
consumed (note that also the energy-conversion equivalent for hydro was increased
from 80 to 100 % as well). In turn this gives space for nuclear energy with a relative
low energy-conversion equivalent of 33 %. Nuclear energy is also favoured by the
strong CO2 target of 10 % per decade.
5.4 Partial equilibrium with elastic demands
A partial equilibrium MARKAL model with elastic demands adopts a concept where
end-use demands are not fixed but elastic to their own prices. The equation below
illustrates this characteristic. D0 and P0 refer to Demands and Prices in an initial
scenario without elastic demands (the demands are exogenously defined). For a
given price elasticity, the demand Dt can be reduced when the corresponding price Pt
increases (scenario with elastic demands). Thereby the elasticity reflects the
relationship between changes in quantity of a good demanded and changes in its
price. In Swiss-MARKAL, we assume an elasticity of 0.3 for all demands.[104]
Figure 56: Partial equilibrium model with elastic demands (based on [101,104]).
α
���
����
�=��
�
����
�
tt P
P
D
D 00
Complementary analyses 99
D: Demand
P: Price
α : Elasiticity
Index 0: Initial Scenario without elastic demands
Index t: Scenario with elastic demands
This relationship can be also explained using Figure 56 illustrating the price and
quantity (demand) relationship in a simplified manner. The initial equilibrium point Eq0
reflects the optimal solution of an initial scenario without elastic demands. In the
scenario with elastic demands the model can chose any (base on the elasticity)
solution on the demand curve by reducing the quantity (demand for a good). As a
result we obtain a new equilibrium point Eqt with the consumer surplus (B) and the
producer surplus (A). Note that the Swiss-MARKAL model with elastic demands does
not capture the entire macroeconomic feedback associated with the applied energy-
policy instruments. This would require coupling of the model to a macro-economic
model, (e.g., the MACRO module).[105] More information can be found in [93,104].
Figure 57 shows the PEC consumption of three scenarios with and without elastic
demands for an oil price of 75 US$2000/bbl in 2050. The first column on the left shows
the PEC without elastic demands. As illustrated in Figure 27, in this scenario
Switzerland mainly depends on fossil (natural gas and oil) fuels and hydro power.
Evaluating the same scenario using an elastic demand approach (centre column), we
attain different PEC consumption shares. The amount of fossil fuels reduces from
67 % to 53 %. Remarkable is also the utilization of nuclear energy with a share of
16 %.
How can this change in the PEC consumption be explained? We firstly take a look at
the demand reduction in the end-use markets. Exemplarily choose the residential
heating (RH) and passenger car sectors. The demand reduction in the RH sector
adds up to 8 % – 14 % compared to the demand in scenario without elastic
demands. Thereby MFH reduce demand by 12 % - 14 % and SFH by 8 % - 10 %.
The demand reduction in the passenger cars sector adds up to 7 %. These
reductions lead to a lower consumption of fossil fuels, which is reflected in the PEC
balance. Secondly, the demand reduction and consequently the consumption of less
fossil fuels open the possibility for the production of energy with lower-efficient
Complementary analyses 100
technologies. Note that the total PEC consumption is limited in all scenarios.
Therefore, instead of producing electricity by high-efficient gas power stations,
electricity is produced by less efficient but also less costly nuclear power stations.
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
3.5 kW/Cap target 3.5 kW/Cap target 3.0 kW/Cap target
no elastic demands elastic demands elastic demands
Pri
mary
En
erg
y [
kW
/Cap
ita]
Other RenewablesHydroNuclearNatural GasOilCoal
Energy carriers:
Figure 57: Primary energy per capita [kW/Cap] consumption for an oil price of 75 US$2000/bbl with and with
elastic demand calculations.
A second issue of interest would be to define the maximum possible PEC reduction
taking into consideration specific price elasticities and resulting demand reductions.
Obviously, although the demand for energy reduces due to high energy prices, there
is still a limit to the possible demand reduction. This limit and the corresponding PEC
fuel shares are illustrated by the third column in the figure. At maximum, we can
reduce the PEC consumption to 3 kW/Cap. The PEC consumption cannot be
reduced any further by 205057. The 3 kW/Cap target can be obtained by reducing
additional demand for electricity, which in turn lowers the PEC consumption of
nuclear energy and natural gas. However, note that even by achieving a 3 kW/Cap
using elastic demands, new investment in nuclear power station or the extension of
their decommissioning time are favourable.
57 In the analysis we lowered the PEC consumption target step wise by 0.5 kW/Cap. A PEC consumption of 2.5 is not feasible.
Complementary analyses 101
5.5 Assessing wood-based synthetic-fuel technologies
In future, new biomass technologies can gain significant importance in the Swiss
energy sector. Therefore, this section assesses the economic conditions under which
new biomass technologies become competitive. The focus of this assessment is on
the production of synthetic natural gas (bio-SNG) from wood in a methanation plant.
In addition to a reference scenario, the effects of increasing oil and gas prices, the
effects of allocating subsidies to the methanation plant and the effects of competition
between the methanation plant and a biomass-based Fischer-Tropsch (FT) synthesis
are evaluated. An additional sensitivity analysis is performed by varying investment
costs of the methanation plant. Note that this section of the dissertation was
conducted with an older version of the Swiss-MARKAL model, status January 2005.
The main difference between the latest version and the version January 2005 is the
absence of energy-saving option in the residential heating sector. However, the
scope of the thesis did not allow a new analysis with the latest version of the model.
For this assessment, each wood-based energy process is embedded in a process
chain that is linked to the energy production, transmission and distribution (T&D)
systems of Switzerland. Figure 58 to Figure 60 depict three types of biomass-process
chains examined in this paper. The first type includes processes that produce fuels
for the transportation sector, namely bio-SNG and FT liquids (Figure 58). The second
type includes processes related to combined heat and power (CHP) production from
wood (Figure 59). The third type includes technologies that use wood to produce
heat only (Figure 60). The technological data description is attached in appendix 3.
Methanation
Fischer-TropschSynthesis
Natural Gas T&D
DieselT&D
CNG ICE Car
Diesel ICE Car
Wood Chips
Figure 58: Wood-based process chains for bio-fuel production from wood considered in the SWISS-MARKAL
model. CNG stands for compressed natural gas and ICE stands for internal combustion engine.
Complementary analyses 102
Wood Chips
Methanation
Wood CHP (<2 MW)Gasification
Wood CHP (<2 MW)Combustion
Wood CHP (>2 MW)Gasification
Wood CHP (>2 MW)Combustion
Natural Gas Distributed CHP
Short-DistanceDistrict Heating
Long-DistanceDistrict Heating
Electricity
Heat
Electricity
Electricity
Electricity
Heat
Heat
Short-DistanceDistrict Heating
Electricity
Figure 59: Wood-based process chains for combined heat and power (CHP) production considered in the
SWISS-MARKAL model. For simplicity, transmission and distribution processes are not shown in the diagram.
Wood Chips
Methanation
Wood Chip Heating (50 kW)
Wood Pellets Production
Wood Chip Heating (300 kW)
Wood Chip Heating (1000 kW)
Co-Combustion in Gas Turbine
Short-DistanceDistrict Heating
Heat
Gas HeatingSFH
Heat
Wood Pellet HeatingSFH
Heat PumpSFH
Heat
Heat
Figure 60: Wood-based process chains for heat production considered in the SWISS-MARKAL model. The
abbreviation SFH stands for Single Family Houses. For simplicity, transmission and distribution processes are
not shown in the diagram.
Complementary analyses 103
As mentioned above, a special attention is given to the wood-methanation
technology to produce bio-SNG and the FT synthesis to produce FT liquids, some of
which can be used in the same way as conventional diesel.[106,107] The specific
costs of the methanation plant and FT synthesis technologies, especially the
investment costs, strongly depend on the size of the plant. In this assessment the
costs of the methanation plant are based on a plant size of 100 MW, whereas the
costs of the FT synthesis are based on a plant size of 400 MW. Because of the
differences in the economies of scale, the specific investment costs of the FT plant
are slightly lower than those of the methanation plant. This in turn directly influences
the generation costs of the energy carrier produced. Since Switzerland is a small
country, we consider a 400 MW FT plant not as appropriate for Switzerland, but we
include the FT facility to test the competitiveness in respect to the methanation plant
in a separate section (section 5.5.4).
5.5.1 Oil price sensitivity analysis
Future oil prices are uncertain and difficult to predict.[108,109] Therefore, the price
levels chosen in the scenarios analyzed here are illustrative and do not represent the
endorsement of any particular oil price projection by the authors. Figure 61 shows the
market share (primary energy use) of wood-based energy-technologies when oil and
gas prices increase. In our scenarios the oil prices increase linearly from 28
US$2000/bbl in 2000 to 100 US$2000/bbl, 110 US$2000/bbl, 120 US$2000/bbl and 130
US$2000/bbl in the year 2050 (OIL100 to OIL130 represents the oil prices 100
US$2000/bbl to 130 US$2000/bbl in 2050). The figure displays the primary-energy use
of wood for the final year of the modelling horizon, 2050. The methanation plant
produces heat with an efficiency of 10 % and bio-SNG with an efficiency of 55 %. In
relation to that, the results indicate how much wood is used for the production of heat
and bio-SNG. The figure also shows in which sectors the produced bio-SNG is used.
Complementary analyses 104
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
OIL 100 OIL 110 OIL 120 OIL 130
Pri
mary
En
erg
y C
on
su
mp
tio
n [
PJ]
Methanation Plant (bio-SNG: Transportation Sector)Methanation Plant (bio-SNG: Residential Sector)Methanation Plant (Heat: All Sectors)Wood CHP (>2 MWel) Gasification
Biomass technologies:
Figure 61: Primary-energy use of wood by different technologies for oil prices between 100 and 130 US$2000/bbl
in the year 2050. The Fischer-Tropsch synthesis is not included as an option.
Figure 61 labels the use of biomass by current technology standards as conventional
technologies. In the year 2000, conventional technologies use biomass of 20 PJ (or
about 20 % of the total theoretical wood potential) in Switzerland.58 In our analysis
these conventional technologies are limited by an upper ceiling of 20 PJ, i.e. as in the
current use of wood. Hence, in this part of the analysis the technologies under
investigation (Figure 58 to Figure 60) compete for the remaining amount of wood,
which adds up to at least 80 PJ.
In Scenario OIL 100, where the oil price reaches 100 US$2000/bbl in the year 2050,
only the production of heat and electricity in a Combined Heat and Power (CHP)
biomass plants is competitive in Switzerland. The first large (more than 2 MW) CHP
gasification plant will be built in 2040. Thereafter the amount of wood converted to
electricity and heat increases to about 6 PJ in 2050 (about 6 % of the total wood
potential of Switzerland). In this scenario, neither the methanation plant nor any other
biomass technology under investigation has the potential to penetrate the market.
In the scenario OIL 110, the amount of wood used in CHP plants is much higher than
in the previous case (about 25 PJ). The first investment will be made in the year
58 In the year 2000, the use of wood can be separated into single room heating systems (27 % of the total), building heating systems (25 %), automatic firing (38 %) and special firing (9%).[48,110]
Complementary analyses 105
2030. Additionally to the CHP plant, the methanation plant becomes competitive. It
should convert a total of 1.5 PJ wood into bio-SNG and heat carriers in 2050. In this
case, wood is converted in the methanation plant into bio-SNG, which is used in the
residential sector.
In scenario OIL 120, four distinct effects take place. Firstly, CHP plants already start
to be competitive in 2025 and methanation plants become competitive as of 2045.
Secondly, the amount of wood converted in CHP plants to heat and electricity
increases from 25 to about 29 US$/PJ. Thirdly, methanation plants increase their
competitiveness on the Swiss market. By the year 2050, about 40 PJ of wood are
converted to bio-SNG and heat. This time by far the largest share of bio-SNG is used
in the transportation sector. Fourthly, the residential sector cannot solidify its
importance. Moreover, if the oil price increases further to 130 US$2000/bbl in the year
2050, the trends outlined in scenario OIL120 are in general terms confirmed.
The results of the analysis suggest that methanation plants may become competitive
at high prices of oil. Thus, provided that oil reaches a threshold price, favourable
market conditions may appear for methanation plants to successfully penetrate the
market. The threshold price of oil corresponds to the year in which the methanation
plants start to penetrate the market and to the value of oil price at that year. This
threshold is around the value of 110 US$2000/bbl. Hence, the results from this part of
the analysis indicate that if the oil price reaches 110 US$2000/bbl or more, the
methanation plants will be competitive enough to penetrate the market. However, if
the oil price is below the threshold of 110 US$2000/bbl, the methanation plants would
require supporting policy measures to enter the market.
Figure 62 shows the final-energy consumption by fuel in the transportation sector in
the year 2050. We identify a clear shift from oil products to natural gas and bio-SNG.
Oil products dominate the final-energy mix in the transportation sector in the baseline
scenario and virtually no gaseous energy carriers (natural gas or bio-SNG) are
consumed. In the scenarios OIL100 to OIL130, this has changed significantly. The
share of natural gas and bio-SNG increased to about 19 to 37 %, depending on the
scenario.59 Generally speaking, under the assumption of increasing oil and gas
prices, natural gas substantially increases its role in the transportation sector. With a
high increase in oil and natural-gas prices in scenarios OIL120 to OIL130, a fraction
59 The increasing participation of natural gas and bio-SNG at the final-energy level is mainly driven by the introduction of gas-powered cars in the passenger car sub-sector. For an analysis of the conditions under which gas-powered vehicles can penetrate the Swiss market, see [111].
Complementary analyses 106
of this natural gas is replaced by bio-SNG. In the scenario OIL120 and OIL130, 5 %
and 9 % of the gas transported in gas pipelines is bio-SNG.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Basecase OIL 100 OIL 110 OIL 120 OIL 130
Fin
al
En
erg
y C
on
su
mp
tio
n [
PJ
]
bio-SNGNatural GasElectricityFT-DieselDieselGasolineAvi. Gasoline
Energycarriers:
Figure 62: Final-energy consumption by fuel of the transport sector for oil prices between 100 and 130
US$2000/bbl in the year 2050.
On average in the above described scenarios, the emissions are about 40.5 Mt CO2
or 16 % lower than the emissions in the baseline scenario (oil price of 50 US$2000/bbl
in 2000). The reduction is influenced by two factors, namely fuel switching to cleaner
fuels and investments in more efficient technologies. In total, the reduction amounts
to 3.2 %, 6.3 %, 8.7 % and 9.3 % for the scenarios OIL100, OIL110, OIL120 and
OIL130. A switch away from oil and gas production to electricity and heat is
identified.
These results illustrate the potential synergies that can exist between bio-SNG and
natural gas. Specifically, the development of an infrastructure for transmission and
distribution of natural gas and the promotion of gas-based technologies in the
transportation sector can be beneficial for the introduction of bio-SNG. In its turn, bio-
SNG can contribute to a hedging strategy against substantial oil and gas-price
increases and to “greening” of natural gas by reducing CO2 emissions.
Complementary analyses 107
5.5.2 Oil price and subsidy sensitivity analysis of the methanation
plant
In this section we analyse various subsidy levels to investigate an earlier market
penetration of the methanation plant at less drastic increases in the fossil resource
prices. Thereby, the focus is only on the penetration of the methanation plant – all
other biomass technologies are not analysed in detail in this section. Figure 63
shows the result of this analysis. The three-dimensional graph shows the crude oil
price in [US$/bbl] in the year 2050 on the x-axis, the level of subsidy in [US$/GJ] on
the y-axis and the primary-energy consumption of biomass for the methanation plant
in [PJ] on the z-axis. The primary consumption of biomass is the indicator for the
competitiveness of the methanation plant. The graph can be read starting from the
point representing an oil price of 50 US$2000/bbl and a subsidy level of 0 US$2000/GJ.
This point represents the baseline described in the previous section. Starting from
this point we could move along the x-axis and reach higher oil price keeping the
subsidy level constant at 0 US$/GJ. At an oil price of 110 US$2000/bbl we observe a
first market penetration of the methanation plant. Increasing the oil price further
results in a higher biomass consumption. In other words, the competitiveness of the
methanation plant increases.
Additionally, we could keep the oil price constant at 50 US$2000/bbl and increase the
subsidy level, going along the y-axis, or we could choose any in-between scenario
selecting a specific oil price and a specific level of subsidy. At an oil price of 50
US$2000/bbl, the subsidy needs to reach 6 US$2000/GJ (3.24 Rp/kWh) for the
methanation plant to reach a competitive level. If, for example, the oil price is 80
US$2000/bbl in 2050, the subsidy level must be 3 US$2000/GJ. The competitiveness of
all in-between scenarios for various oil prices is indicated by the ‘Market Penetration
Threshold’-line in the figure. In other words, the ‘Market Penetration Threshold’
illustrates the oil price and the corresponding subsidies necessary for the
methanation plant to be an economically attractive investment option in the energy
sector. For all other combinations of oil prices and subsidy levels (e.g. 70 US$2000/bbl
and 2 US$2000/PJ) below the ‘Market Penetration Threshold’, the plant is not an
economically-viable option. The figure also shows an upper plain for very high oil
prices and subsidies. This plain indicates that the maximum potential of biomass is
used in Switzerland.
Complementary analyses 108
0
1
2
34
56
78
910
5060
7080
90100
110120
130
0
20
40
60
80
100
Primary Energy
Consumption [PJ]Biomass for Methanation
Subsidy
[US$2000/GJ]
Oil price in 2050
[US$2000/bbl]
Baseline
Market
Penetration
Threshold
Figure 63: Market penetration of the methanation plant for different oil prices and subsidies levels. The market
penetration in the figure corresponds to the use of biomass for the Methanation processes expressed in [PJ].
As proven in this section, the introduction of subsidies helps to foster the market
penetration of the methanation plant at oil prices below 110 US$2000/bbl. Such
subsidies directly support an earlier market penetration, while a carbon tax is an
indirect support for the market penetration of the methanation plant. In a simplified
form, the equation for the methanation plant to be competitive can be expressed as
Oil Price + Carbon Tax + Subsidies ≥ 110 US$2000/bbl.
5.5.3 Investment cost sensitivity analysis of the methanation plant
The robustness of the result obtained so far can be analysed by conducting a
sensitivity analysis on the investment costs for various oil prices. Figure 64 illustrates
the results of the sensitivity analysis. The three-dimensional graph depicts the
percent change of investment cost on the x-axis, the crude oil price in [US$2000/bbl] in
the year 2050 on the y-axis and the primary-energy consumption of biomass for the
methanation plant in [PJ] on the z-axis. The percent investment cost changes are
altered between -10 % and +10 % of the investment costs used for all other
scenarios. The figure also illustrates the starting point of the analysis: 0 % in
investment costs and an oil price of 110 US$2000/bbl. This starting point corresponds
to the same biomass consumption values shown in scenario OIL110 in Figure 61 and
Complementary analyses 109
where the ‘Market Penetration Threshold’ line crosses the ‘Oil Price’ axis in Figure
63.
105
0-5
-10100
105
110
115
120
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Primary Energy
Consumption [PJ] Biomass for Methanation
Changes of Investment Costs [%]
Oil Price
[US$2000/bbl]
Starting Point
Figure 64: Market penetration of the methanation plant for different investment cost (high, medium, low). The
market penetration in the figure corresponds to the use of biomass for the Methanation processes expressed in
[PJ].
The figure puts forwards the conclusion that changes in the oil price have a stronger
effect than changes in investments costs. The change in investment costs only
influences the results when the oil price is at 110 US$2000/bbl. On the one hand, at an
oil price of 110 US$2000/bbl in 2050, the consumption of biomass (hence the market
competitiveness) decreases when the investments cost become 5 % more
expensive. On the other hand, when the investment cost decrease by 5 %, the
consumption of biomass shows a large increase. For all other oil prices (100, 105,
115, 120 US$2000/bbl) the investment-cost changes investigated here have no impact
on the consumption of biomass. On the contrary, the oil-price changes in the year
2050 shows a differentiated result. When the oil price reaches 105 US$2000/bbl, we
do not observe any consumption of biomass, hence investment in the methanation
plant is not economical, independent of the changes in investment costs. However,
for an oil price of 115 US$2000/bbl, we see biomass consumption of about 40 PJ for all
assumed investment costs. Therefore, the threshold for the market penetration of the
Complementary analyses 110
methanation plant at around 110 US$2000/bbl is confirmed, independent of the
scrutinized investment-cost fluctuations.
5.5.4 The comparison of Fischer-Tropsch and methanation plants
In the last section we examined the competitiveness of the methanation plant and the
FT Synthesis. For this analysis we assumed more moderate changes in the oil-price
development and lower subsidies on methanation plants compared to the scenario
sets described in the sections above. For all scenarios an oil price of 80 US$2000/bbl
in the year 2050 and a bio-SNG subsidy level of 4 US$/GJ (2.16 Rp/kWh) is chosen.
Moreover, the analysis in this section also differs regarding the presence or absence
of the modality (single product or co-production) of the FT facility.
Figure 65 presents a summary of the primary-energy use of wood for the year 2050.
As can be seen, when no investments can be made in the FT synthesis, the results
clearly augment the production of bio-SNG. About 70 PJ of wood is converted to
energy in methanation plants and about 84 % of the produced bio-SNG is used in the
transportation sector. Bio-SNG in the transportation sector substitutes conventional-
fuel cars such as diesel and gasoline cars whereas the amount of gas-driven cars
increases proportionally. However, if investments in a FT facility are allowed and if
this facility can co-produce electricity, it becomes more competitive than the bio-SNG
plant60. It is important to note that this is only possible because the by-product
electricity is dispatched to the Swiss electrical grid and can be sold to consumers.
Electricity, compared to heat produced by the methanation plant, can be sold at
higher prices and therefore the choice of investment is in favour of the FT synthesis.
Because of the large amount of FT liquids, the amount of diesel cars in the
transportation sector increases and the share of conventional gasoline cars drops
significantly compared to the baseline scenario. Generally, these scenarios favour
the FT synthesis, but the competitiveness of the FT synthesis plant is strongly
dependent on the possibility of selling the co-product electricity and the creation of
the infrastructure for a 400 MW plant.
60 The subsidies on bio-SNG remain at 5 US$/GJ (2.7 Rp/kWh).
Complementary analyses 111
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
without Fischer-Tropsch with Fischer-Tropsch with Fischer-Tropsch
as a co-production plant producing only FT diesel
Pri
mary
En
erg
y C
on
su
mp
tio
n [
PJ]
Fischer-Tropsch SynthesisMethanation Plant (bio-SNG: Transportation Sector)Methanation Plant (bio-SNG: Residential Sector)Methanation Plant (Heat: All Sectors)
Biomass technologies:
Figure 65: Primary-energy use of wood for an oil price of 80 US$2000/bbl in 2050 and bio-SNG subsidies of
4 US$/GJ.
5.5.5 Remarks on the methantion plant
The scenarios examined the influence of such key factors as increases in the price of
fossil fuels (oil and natural gas), introduction of subsidies for bio-SNG production and
selected combinations of these factors. The results of our research suggest that with
present cost estimates, bio-SNG is still not competitive when compared to currently
dominating energy-generation technologies. In order to allow for a successful market
penetration, cost reductions of methanation plants are required. Alternatively, high
prices of oil and natural gas as well as subsidies for methanation plants would enable
their introduction. The robustness of the results for the methanation plant was
scrutinized using a sensitivity analysis for the methanation plant investments costs
for various oil prices. Additionally we investigated the competition of methanation
plants with Fischer-Tropsch (FT) installations.
If no supporting policy measures are undertaken the oil price needs to reach about
110 US$2000/bbl for bio-SNG to be competitive with conventional fuels. Using the
sensitivity analysis for investment costs of the methanation plant confirms this result.
If oil is traded at 50 US$2000/bbl in 2050, a subsidy of 6 US$/GJ is necessary to
initialize a market penetration. Nonetheless, the most plausible scenario is reached
Complementary analyses 112
by a combination of increasing oil prices and subsidies promoting the market
penetration of bio-SNG. Thus, if the oil price reaches values around 80 US$2000/bbl in
2050 and subsidies of 3 to 4 US$/GJ support the market penetration of bio-SNG, the
fuel can have a significant impact on the Swiss energy system.
The results of our analysis also suggest that a potential and very promising market
for bio-SNG is the transportation sector. Unlike the residential sector where
numerous alternative cost-effective technologies are already present, the
transportation sector contains a vast market segment where bio-SNG technologies
can take the leading role. Up to 37 % of the total fuel for transportation could be
coming from a combination of natural gas and bio-SNG in 2050. At the same time,
this scenario also introduces more efficient vehicle technologies. Hence, the
synergetic use of natural gas and bio-SNG in the transportation sector can increase
significantly and reduce the total final-energy consumption in this sector.
The penetration of bio-SNG also depends on the competition with other alternative
wood-based energy-technologies. Our analysis suggests that a biomass-fired facility,
co-producing FT liquids and electricity, can be a more cost effective alternative than
a facility co-producing bio-SNG and heat (not considering the logistic, environmental
and public-acceptance issues that would be raised by a FT facility). The results of our
analysis highlight the importance of exploring additional co-production strategies for
bio-SNG, i.e. together with electricity.
Conclusions and recommendations 113
6 Conclusions and recommendations
The overall goal of the dissertation was the assessment of intermediate steps
towards the 2000-Watt society in Switzerland. The concept of a 2000-Watt society
aims at consuming not more than 2000 Watts per capita (2 kW/Cap) of primary
energy society. For the analysis the cost-optimization Swiss MARKAL model (SMM)
is used. This energy-system model provides a detailed representation of all energy
technologies and energy flows in Switzerland. In the course of the dissertation, the
author provides insights into four main questions:
1) How much can the primary-energy per capita (PEC) consumption be lowered
until 2050? We tried to find an upper reduction potential of the PEC consumption
until 2050.
2) What are the cost-optimal technical choices until 2050? Each contemplated
scenario suggests a set of technologies. In particular we analysed electricity-
generation technologies, residential-heating systems (including energy saving
measures) and the development of the Swiss car fleet.
3) Will energy-related CO2 emissions reduce substantially? The emissions
reductions are compared to specific targets of only reducing CO2 emissions as
well as combinations of PEC and CO2 reduction targets.
4) What are the costs of reducing PEC consumption? By subtracting costs of each
constrained scenario from the baseline scenario, we found the additional costs
associated with each scenario policy.
6.1 The 2000-Watt society: Results from the Swiss MARKAL
model
This section illustrates the results obtained from the modelling analysis. The four
main results can be summarized as follows:
1) The PEC consumption target of 2000 Watts per capita should be seen as a long-
term goal. During the first half of the century only intermediate steps towards the
2000-Watt society can be achieved (see section 6.1.1).
2) To achieve already intermediate steps requires a transformation of the energy
use as we know it today. Thereby, the generation of electricity plays a key role.
The contribution of nuclear energy and renewable energies is indispensable. In
the residential sector the use of heat pumps and investments in energy-saving
Conclusions and recommendations 114
options will be necessary. In the transportation sector, hybrid diesel and natural
gas cars will initiate important structural changes (see section 6.1.2).
3) All PEC consumption targets until 2050 can reduce CO2 emissions to an
equivalent of 5 % per decade at maximum. Less strong PEC targets have even
higher emissions. For significant CO2-emission reductions, targets must be
formulated explicitly (see section 6.1.2).
4) This transformation is associated with sizeable costs. Following PEC targets is
more expensive than following strict CO2 reduction targets (see section 6.1.3).
6.1.1 Primary energy consumption and final energy implications
In the baseline scenario, without any limits on PEC consumption and an assumed oil
price of 75 US$2000/bbl, the consumption amounts to 5.2 kW/Cap in the year 2050. In
comparison to today’s consumption of around 5.0 kW/Cap, we see a small
consumption increase. Considering the strong demand increases in most energy
sectors, this small increase in fact reflects large technological energy-efficiency
improvements. However, these energy-efficiency improvements do not come close to
what would be necessary under the umbrella of a 2000-Watt society. Without any
political measures or incentives, the target of a 2000-Watt society is far away from
reality.
Before looking directly at the 2000-Watt society, a sensitivity analysis on oil prices is
conducted. We investigate results for one case with a lower oil price of 50
US$2000/bbl and two cases with higher oil prices of 100 and 125 US$2000/bbl in 2050.
At a lower oil price, the PEC consumption increases to 5.3 and at higher oil prices the
PEC consumption decreases to 5.0 and 4.9 kW/Cap, respectively. The higher the oil
price the more economical it is to invest in better energy-efficient technologies, the
PEC (or kW/Cap) consumption decreases. However, even for expensive oil prices
the PEC consumption remains at high levels.
In order to find the maximum possible PEC reduction a detailed analysis is
conducted. For all levels of oil prices, specific PEC reduction targets are
implemented. Starting at 5.0 kW/Cap, the target is lowered stepwise by 0.5 kW/Cap
until the possible maximum reduction is reached. For all scenarios, independent of
the oil price, a PEC consumption of 3.5 kW/Cap could be achieved – the maximum
reduction is confirmed.
Conclusions and recommendations 115
Note that all PEC targets, such as the 3.5 kW/Cap target, are implemented only for
the year 2050 without any intermediate targets. The model is then free to choose the
investment level required to reach the goal without any premature phasing-out of
existing capacities. This approach avoids excess cost penalties at earlier time
periods. By looking at the PEC evolution over time, we can distinguish two
development phases. The first phase starts in the year 2010 and lasts until 2040. The
second phase mirrors the time period of 2040 until 2050. In the first phase, initial
technological changes must be triggered. Compared to the first phase, the second
phase is the more important one. In the second phase, profound changes must be
undertaken in order to realize substantial reduction targets.
With respect to issues of global climate change, we investigate reasonable CO2
emissions targets and combine them with the contemplated PEC objectives. The
sensitivity analysis defines CO2 reductions of 5 % and 10 % per decade, starting from
the Swiss-Kyoto commitment in 2010. Compared to today’s energy-related CO2
emissions, this implies a reduction of 30 and 45 % respectively. By tightening only
CO2 targets, the PEC consumption reduces to values between 4.9 and 4.5 kW/Cap,
depending on the oil price in the year 2050. Compared to present consumption, this
implies a reduction of only 10 % at maximum. Hence, a CO2 reduction alone does not
sufficiently move into the direction of a 2000-Watt society. However, a combination of
CO2 and PEC consumption targets is possible. Independent of the contemplated CO2
reduction, a 3.5 kW/Cap target can be reached and still reflects the lower
consumption limit in the year 2050. Considering that strong CO2 targets can be
reached without significantly lowering the consumption of energy, the goal of the
2000-Watt society remains a questionable instrument to achieve climate-change
mitigation goals.
Implications for the final energy consumption
The energy-reduction constraints on PEC consumption influence the whole energy
system of Switzerland. On the one hand, this is reflected by a reduction of the PEC.
On the other hand, it is reflected by the final-energy (FE) consumption. In the
baseline scenario, the FE consumption in the year 2050 amounts to 871 PJ. Again
this consumption is highly dependent on the oil price if no additional CO2 or kW/Cap
goals are targeted. For the lower oil price of 50 US$2000/bbl the consumption
Conclusions and recommendations 116
increases by 6 %, whereas for higher oil prices of 100 and 125 US$2000/bbl the
consumption reduces by 6 and 8 % respectively.
For combined CO2 and PEC scenarios with strong targets, we also observe a
decrease of FE consumption. Investments in energy-efficiency options in the FE
sector take place to a large extend. Thereby, the highest investments in efficient
technologies are made when these combined CO2 and PEC targets are applied. For
significant CO2 reduction targets only, the FE consumption reduces by 16 % to about
735 PJ. For significant combined kW/Cap and CO2 targets, the FE consumption
reduces by more than 26 % to less than 650 PJ in 2050.
The energy use of Switzerland is divided into five end-use sectors, each having
several sub-sectors: Residential, transportation, industry, commercial and agriculture.
All sectors have a different share of FE energy consumption and all sectors show
different reduction levels. The most important sectors are the residential and the
transportation sectors. These sectors are scrutinized in more detail within the scope
of this analysis. The residential sector shows the highest energy reductions
compared to all other sector. The total FE consumption of this sector is reduced to
about 100 PJ in 2050. At an oil price of 75 US$2000/bbl, this implies a reduction of
45 %. Major energy reductions are achieved in the residential heating (RH) sub-
sector. Although this sub-sector remains to be the main consumer of energy, RH
consumes only 43 PJ in 2050. The obtained reductions in the transportation sector
are lower compared to the residential sector. Still, we observe significant reductions.
Passenger cars remain to be the largest consumers in the transportation sector.
While passenger cars use more than 160 PJ of FE in 2000, the consumption could
reduce to around 110 PJ in 2050.
6.1.2 Technological change and CO2 emissions
The analysis showed that during the first half of the century only intermediate steps
towards the 2000-Watt society can be achieved. Even these intermediate steps are
associated with a considerable transformation of the Swiss energy system in terms of
both final-energy production and energy-demand technologies.
Conclusions and recommendations 117
Final energy production: Electricity
At the moment, the Swiss production of electricity is dominated by hydro und nuclear
power and is nearly CO2 free. In future, electricity will play an even more important
role in a service-oriented society than today. Electricity can efficiently substitute other
energy carriers, especially fossil energy carriers. Because of this, a CO2 free
electricity production will be of major concern for an overall effective reduction of CO2
emissions in the future. A prime-example for an efficient substitution of fossil energy
carriers with electricity is heat pumps. Electricity can also substitute for oil products
and natural gas in many industrial processes. The question to be answered is:
Should Switzerland invest in nuclear-energy technologies, highly-efficient gas-fired
combined-heat-and-power (CHP) plants or renewable energies? Depending on the
examined target, we observe different results.
Strong CO2 reductions increase the electricity production and therefore the share of
electricity in end-use sectors rises. A CO2 reduction equivalent to 10 % per decade
results in an electricity-production increase of more than 30 % in 2050 compared to
the year 2000. Excluding the exported amount of electricity, we observe an increase
of more than 45 % by 2050. For a 3500-Watt society in 2050, a large amount of
energy-efficiency investments must be undertaken. Therefore, the increase in
electricity production is not as strong as in the CO2 reduction scenarios. In any case,
the electricity production will increase from a today’s level of 57 TWh to 70 - 85 TWh
in 2050, even with a PEC consumption reduction to 3.5 kW/Cap.
Without any CO2 and PEC constraints, nuclear power is the most competitive option
for the production of electricity. We attain the same results by implementing CO2
reduction targets. However, the option of nuclear power disappears for strong PEC
constraints. CHP plants are favoured taking into account an increase of CO2
emissions. The reason is the comparably low efficiency of nuclear power stations. Of
importance are also assumptions on primary-to-final energy-conversion equivalents
of renewable energy technologies. Assuming an conversion equivalent of 100 %,
such as in the newest SFOE statistics, the results favor renewable technologies
compared to fossil-fuel technologies for PEC and combined PEC and CO2 reduction
targets. Nevertheless, the electricity-production structure is crucial for the CO2
emission balance of Switzerland. All affordable and efficient measures against
Conclusions and recommendations 118
climate change require the use of new renewable energies as well as nuclear power.
At the same time the hydro-power potential must be used to its full extent.
Energy demand technologies: Residential heating and passenger cars
We investigated transformation changes in two end-use sectors, namely the
residential and transportation sector. Especially dwelling houses and the vehicle fleet
have to undergo significant transformations until 2050 if we want to reduce energy
consumption and lower CO2 emissions at the same time. Less heat consumption and
more heat pumps as well as novel engine drives for cars would be the choice in the
future.
Today, more than 80 % of residential heat in private houses is generated by burning
diesel and natural gas. We can largely avoid these heating systems even if the
expected sum of the Heated Floor Areas (Energy Reference Floor Area - ERFA)
increases by 40 % until 2050. Building energy-efficient houses and renovating
houses based on the Swiss MINERGIE standards could reduce the energy demand
to less than 40 % compared to today’s consumption. At the same time, by using heat
pumps and district heat from centralised biomass and natural gas CHP plant,
Switzerland would depend on fossil energy sources for room heating only to a very
small degree. This would also lower the CO2 emission in the residential sector by
about 10 million tones, which is about 20 % of today’s Swiss CO2 emissions.
Buying more and more cars and driving more kilometres every year but at the same
time wanting to reduce CO2 emissions, the structure of today’s car fleet needs to
change substantially. The car fleet would need to have drastically lower CO2
emissions per driven vehicle-kilometre compared to today’s fleet. Hybrid engines
could replace currently dominating gasoline and diesel internal-combustion engines.
They mark the most cost-effective replacement option, lowering CO2 at the same
time. Gasoline cars, with relative high fuel consumption, would have no future in a
3500-Watt society. Besides diesel cars, natural gas cars would penetrate the market
as natural gas could be used in an efficient manner, also having lower CO2
emissions. However, for a market penetration of natural gas cars, the development of
an infrastructure supporting natural gas fuelling stations is indispensable.
For strong PEC and CO2 reduction target, we also observe a first penetration of
hydrogen cars (with hybrid and fuel-cell engines) in 2045. Even if the volume of traffic
Conclusions and recommendations 119
increases by 40 % until 2050, we could achieve a FE reduction of one third and
reduce CO2 emissions by 5 million tones by following the technological pathway
described before. However, the penetration of hydrogen fuel-cell cars largely
depends on the price of fuel-cells and the stack size installed in passenger cars. The
initial date for market penetration could already be around 2030 when the cost of
fuel-cells is lower and light vehicles with an engine size of 50 kW are offered. In
2050, a market share of up to 21 % is possible.
6.1.3 Additional total system costs
The transformation of the energy system is not cost-free. Whereas less stringent
PEC targets are still relatively cheap, strong targets are more expensive. At an oil
price of 75 US$2000/bbl in 2050, the additional costs to reach a 3500-Watt society
amount to about 20 billion US$2000 (~33 billion CHF2000)61. The costs are additional to
the baseline costs at the same oil price and represent cumulative discounted costs.
These costs should be compared to a Kyoto-for-ever target (i.e. 5 % CO2 reduction
per decade), which has about the same CO2 emissions in 2050. The costs to reach a
Kyoto-for-ever are about 15 billion US$2000 (~25 billion CHF2000) or 5 billion US$2000
(~8 billion CHF2000) less, see Figure 67.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
5.2 kW (NoLimit)
4.9 kW (NoLimit)
4.8 kW (NoLimit)
3.5 kW target 3.5 kW target 3.5 kW target
No CO2 limit CO2 reductionof 5 % per
decade
CO2 reductionof 10 % per
decade
No CO2 limit CO2 reductionof 5 % per
decade
CO2 reductionof 10 % per
decade
Ad
dit
ion
al T
ota
l-S
yste
m C
osts
[b
illi
on
US
$2
00
0]
Figure 66: Total-system-costs increase for an Oil Price of 75US$2000/bbl.
61 In the year 2000, the average exchange rate was 1.68846 CHF to 1 US$.[112]
Conclusions and recommendations 120
As mentioned above, strong CO2 targets must be formulated explicitly. If a 10 % CO2
reduction per decade is envisaged additional to the 3.5 kW/Cap target, the extra
costs amount to about 40 billion US$2000 (~67 billion CHF2000). The costs also highly
depend on the oil price in the year 2050. Whereas for lower oil prices the additional
costs increase to more than 45 billion US$2000 (~75 billion CHF2000), for higher oil
prices they reduce to about 35 billion US$2000 (~59 billion CHF2000). However, despite
of possible cost and technology synergies of combined PEC and CO2 targets, to
comply with strong CO2 target is less expensive. A 10 % per decade CO2 reduction
costs between 15 and 30 billion US$2000 (~25 and 50 billion CHF2000), depending on
the oil price in 2050. Therefore, if the main argument in favour of the 3500-Watt
society was CO2 reduction, then the PEC target is questionable.
6.1.4 The influence of discount rates
For long-term policy making the choice of discount rates determines the present
value of these policy-induced costs and benefits. Given controversial issues about
discount rates, we study a low discount rate of 3 % (also used in the baseline
scenario) and a high discount rate of 5 %. These different discount rates are applied
to two scenario sets. The first scenario set represents non-constrained scenarios
where neither PEC consumption nor CO2 are limited. The second scenario set
represents PEC constraint scenarios where a PEC consumption target of 3.5
kW/Cap is applied.
The non-constrained scenarios show a relatively small but notable difference in the
PE consumption. By decreasing the discount rate from 5 % to 3 % the PE
consumption reduces by little more than 3 %. At the same time the amount of oil and
gas consumed in 2050 is less due to investments in more capital-intensive and
energy-efficient technologies. In turn, the total CO2 emissions reduce by 7 % (from
40.3 to 37.7 Mt). On the contrary, the 3.5 kW/Cap constraint scenarios show in
essence no difference in total PE consumption. This effect is reflected in the CO2
emissions in 2050. The emissions differ by less than 0.3%. We can conclude that the
discount-rate changes have only little effect on the PE consumption and on future-
investment choices in Switzerland. Especially, a strong kW/Cap constraint already
demands such capital-intensive technologies that a low discount does not show an
additional effect in favour of these technologies.
Conclusions and recommendations 121
6.1.5 Partial equilibrium with elastic demands
The partial equilibrium version of MARKAL assumes elastic end-use demands to
their own prices. The core issue of this analysis is whether or how much more can
the PEC consumption be reduced in comparison to the non-elastic demand
evaluation?
Evaluating the 3.5 kW/Cap PEC-consumption target using an elastic-demand
approach, we attain different PEC consumption shares compared to the evaluation
without elastic demands. The amount of fossil-fuel consumption reduces and nuclear
energy gains share. For high oil prices, all energy demands, such as residential
heating (RH) and driven kilometres of passenger cars, reduce. These reductions lead
to a lower consumption of fossil fuels and are reflected in the PEC balance. As a
result, the production of energy with lower-efficient technologies is possible. Note that
the total PEC consumption is still limited to 3.5 kW/Cap. Therefore, instead of
producing electricity by high-efficient gas power stations, electricity is produced by
less efficient but also less costly nuclear power stations.
Although the demand for energy reduces due to high energy prices, there is still a
limit to the possible demand reduction. At maximum, we can reduce the PEC
consumption to 3.0 kW/Cap in 2050. The 3.0 kW/Cap target can be obtained by
reducing additional demand for electricity, which in turn lowers the PEC consumption
However, note that even by achieving a 3.0 kW/Cap using elastic demands, new
investment in nuclear power station or the extension of their decommissioning time is
favoured.
6.2 Lessons learned
Even by following strict energy-efficiency strategies with the only objective to reduce
the primary-energy per capita (PEC) consumption, a 2000-Watt society can only be
achieved after the year 2050. At the moment one flight from Zürich to Los Angeles
per person and year covers half the limit of a 2000-Watt society. Using the
technologies at hand by the middle of the century, we could lower the primary-energy
consumption to 3500 Watts per capita (or to 3000 Watts taking into account
consumer’s behaviour to price changes) at maximum. The transition of the current
energy system to a 2000-Watt society is highly ambitious. All targeted changes will
not take place on their own. We would need goal-oriented measures from politics
such that people change behaviour and invest in more efficient and cleaner
Conclusions and recommendations 122
technologies. Already existing energy-efficiency labelling such as MINERGIE,
energho or Eco-Driver® should be just a beginning. Additional labelling or even
banning of inefficient technologies or subsidizing “intelligent technologies” (e.g.
electronic control engineering in houses and for road and rail transportation) would
be advantageous. At the same these measures would induce innovation from which
the Swiss industry could profit.
To consume less energy is surely important but does it make sense to put everything
on one card: reduction of PEC consumption? By only reducing the PEC
consumption, Switzerland does not reach the destination of a climate-friendly energy
consumption and a sustainable reduction of CO2 emissions in 2050. The import
dependency on fossil-energy carriers and resulting CO2 emissions remain critical.
Renewable energies do not encounter a breakthrough. Therefore, it would be
necessary to combine total PEC consumption targets with upper limits on CO2
emissions. However, despite possible technological synergies, combined PEC and
CO2 targets are available only at very high costs.
Reducing CO2 emissions should actually be the overriding goal, although the energy
consumption is higher. Due to climate political issues, CO2 emissions should reduce
by 50 % until 2050 at least. Therefore, the emissions must reduce by 10 % if not 15
% per decade, assuming that Switzerland reaches the Kyoto target in 2010. This
overriding goal would also make the Swiss air cleaner, without penalizing renewable
energies by a cap on the total energy consumption. Assuming that local pollutants
are proportional to the consumption of fossil fuel, a CO2 reduction by half also has
significant co-benefit on local air quality without direct end-of pipe solutions. The
earlier necessary changes are initiated the easier it will be to reach long-distance
targets.
6.3 Outlook on future research
The results presented here have illustrated some guidelines on how to achieve
intermediate steps towards the 2000-Watt society. For the analysis the cost-
optimisation model Swiss MARKAL (SMM) is used and ready to answer further
research questions. However, due to modelling and time limitations many aspects
were generalized and based on assumption. Two areas of further research emerge
from this study. The first area addresses issues relating to enhancing the modelling
Conclusions and recommendations 123
framework. The second area addresses issues relating to extending the scope and
profoundness of the selected policy-portfolio analysis.
SMM could be coupled to a macro-economic model.[105] This way, the bottom-up
representation of the energy system in SMM could better take into account
parameters such as national income, unemployment, inflation, investment or
international trade. Additionally, in view of the currently observed fluctuating energy
prices, uncertainties of energy prices could be incorporated.[113] The impact of
uncertain energy prices on the supply structures and the interaction with measures in
the demand sectors could be of prime interest. The feedbacks from the behaviour of
complex systems could be analysed using system dynamics models. For instance,
the transportation sector is governed not only by most cost-effective options.
Customer behaviour remains critical. Especially access to the fuelling network and
available vehicle options are very important issues.[111] System dynamics models
can help to analyze these important issues.
Additional policy analysis could also offer numerous possibilities to verify and extend
results and conclusions. Despite the variety of sensitivity analyses conducted here,
an extended systematic sensitivity analysis might provide additional insights. The
parameters which could be used for an additional sensitivity are: technology specific
discount rates of future investments, price elasticises of demand sectors, efficiencies
and costs of relevant future technologies and costs and potentials of energy carriers.
Other areas of interest could be internalizing external costs or accounting for grey
energy and other greenhouse gases (GHG).
References 124
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List of figures 133
List of figures
Figure 1: A possible development towards the 2000-Watt society [7] .................................................... 7 Figure 2: A simplified version of the Reference Energy System (RES) used in the energy-system
Swiss-MARKAL model. T&D is an abbreviation for transmission and distribution. ....................... 13 Figure 3: Primary-energy consumption in the baseline scenario for the period 2000 to 2050.............. 19 Figure 4: Primary-energy per capita consumption for the period 1910 to 2050. The figure shows
historic values for the time period 1910 until 2000 and values of the baseline projection for the time period 2000 until 2050. [17,55,56] ......................................................................................... 20
Figure 5: Final-energy consumption by fuels in the baseline scenario for the period 2000 to 2050..... 21 Figure 6: Final-energy consumption by sectors in the baseline scenario for the period 2000 to 2050. 22 Figure 7: Electricity production in the baseline scenario for the time period 2000 to 2050................... 23 Figure 8: Correlation between electricity consumption and GDP for the time period 1980 to 2050. The
time period 1980 to 2000 reflects statistical values and the time period 2000 to 2050 SMM values of the baseline scenario. ................................................................................................................ 24
Figure 9: Energy-related CO2 emissions per sector in Switzerland for the period 2000 to 2050 in the baseline scenario. .......................................................................................................................... 25
Figure 10: ERFA comparison ................................................................................................................ 29 Figure 11: Demolition rate and ERFA existing buildings. ..................................................................... 30 Figure 12: Energy demand existing buildings SFH (RH1) and MFH (RH3).......................................... 30 Figure 13: ERFA new buildings SFH (RH2) and MFH (RH4). .............................................................. 31 Figure 14: Average specific room-heating demand of new buildings built in a future period of time.... 32 Figure 15: Room-heating demand new buildings energy saving options ............................................. 33 Figure 16: Marginal-cost curves for SFH (left) and MFH (right) existing buildings ............................... 35 Figure 17: Marginal-cost curves implementation for SFH existing buildings used for the model
implementation............................................................................................................................... 38 Figure 18: Marginal-cost curve of new buildings SFH – sketch ............................................................ 40 Figure 19: Final-energy consumption of residential demand segments ............................................... 46 Figure 20: Detailed final-energy consumption of the residential heating sector [PJ]. Also depicted in
the figure is the saved energy (grey area) due to improved insulation of roofs, windows, etc and the increase of the (useful-) energy demand. The energy demand (solid line) is illustrated in [per Unit], relative to the year 2000....................................................................................................... 47
Figure 21: Final-energy consumption of the residential sector [PJ] by fuel for all demand categories. 48 Figure 22: Demand increase of passenger cars in [%] ......................................................................... 54 Figure 23: Demand increase of other transportation modes in [%]....................................................... 55 Figure 24: Final-energy consumption of transportation demand segments.......................................... 58 Figure 25: Total final-energy consumption of the transportation sector ................................................ 58 Figure 26: Primary energy per capita [kW/Cap] development for various kW/Cap targets in the year
2050 at an oil price of 75 US$2000/bbl in the year 2050............................................................... 60 Figure 27: Total primary-energy consumption for an oil price of 75 US$2000/bbl in the year 2050........ 61 Figure 28: CO2 Emissions of different scenarios in the year 2050........................................................ 62 Figure 29: Total Final-energy consumption [PJ] developments for various kW/Cap targets and an oil
price of 75 US$2000 in 2050 ............................................................................................................ 63 Figure 30: Total final-energy consumption of the residential sector in 2050......................................... 65 Figure 31: Total final-energy consumption of the residential heating sector......................................... 66 Figure 32: Final-energy savings of the residential sector in 2050......................................................... 67 Figure 33: Specific-heating demand of an average residential house for an oil price of 75 US$2000/bbl
and without a primary energy constraint........................................................................................ 68 Figure 34: Specific-heating demand of an average residential house for an oil price of 75 US$2000/bbl
and a primary energy constraint of 3.5 kW/Cap ............................................................................ 69 Figure 35: Detailed final-energy consumption of the residential heating sector [PJ] for an oil price of 75
US$2000/bbl and a primary energy target of 3.5 kW/Cap in 2050................................................... 70 Figure 36: Comparison of energy demand, final energy consumption and ERFA for an oil price of 75
US$2000/bbl and a primary energy target of 3.5 kW/Cap in 2050................................................... 71 Figure 37: Final-energy consumption of the transport sector in 2050................................................... 72 Figure 38: Final-energy consumption of passenger cars in 2050 ......................................................... 73 Figure 39: Detailed final-energy consumption of passenger cars [PJ] for an oil price of 75 US$2000/bbl
and a primary energy target of 3.5 kW/Cap in 2050...................................................................... 73 Figure 40: CO2 emission targets ........................................................................................................... 74 Figure 41: Primary energy per capita [kW/Capita] for an oil price of 50 US$2000/bbl in 2050 ............... 76
List of figures 134
Figure 42: Primary energy per capita [kW/Cap] consumption for oil prices of 50 and 100US$/bbl2000, no and 10% per decade CO2 reductions as well as no and 3.5kW/Cap primary energy constraints. 78
Figure 43: Primary energy per capita [kW/Cap] consumption for an Oil Price of 125 US$/bbl2000, various CO2 limits and a primary per capita constraint of 3.5kW/Cap........................................... 79
Figure 44: Primary energy per capita [kW/Cap] development for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets in the year 2050 at an oil price of 75 US$2000/bbl in the year 2050 ................................................ 80
Figure 45: Detailed final-energy consumption of the residential heating sector [PJ] for an oil price of 75 US$2000/bbl, a primary energy target of 3.5 kW/Cap in 2050 and a CO2 reduction target of 10 % 82
Figure 46: Comparison of energy demand, final energy consumption and ERFA for an oil price of 75 US$2000/bbl, a primary energy target of 3.5 kW/Cap in 2050 and a CO2 reduction target of 10 % 82
Figure 47: Detailed final-energy consumption of passenger cars [PJ] for an oil price of 75 US$2000/bbl and a primary energy target of 3.5 kW/Cap in 2050 and a CO2 reduction target of 10 %. .......... 83
Figure 48: Electricity production [TWh] for an oil price of 75 US$2000/bbl and various CO2 emission and primary energy targets................................................................................................................... 85
Figure 49: Primary energy consumption [PJ] of renewable energy technologies for various CO2 and kW/Cap limits and an oil price of 75 US$2000/bbl. .......................................................................... 86
Figure 50: Primary energy consumption [PJ] of wood technologies for an oil price of 75 US$2000/bbl. A 3.5 kW/Cap target and 10 % CO2 reduction are applied. .............................................................. 87
Figure 51: Total-system-costs increase for an Oil Price of 75US$2000/bbl ............................................ 88 Figure 52: Annual total-system-costs increase for an oil price of 75US$2000/bbl .................................. 90 Figure 53: Primary energy per capita [kW/Cap] consumption for an oil price of 75 US$2000/bbl with
discount rates (dr) of 3 and 5 % as well as no kW/Cap target and a 3.5 kW/Cap target .............. 93 Figure 54: Final-energy consumption of passenger cars at an oil price of 75US2000/bbl, 3.5 kW/Cap
primary energy and a CO2 reduction constraint of 10 % per decade. Fuel stack price is assumed to be 300US$/kW in 2010 and the size of one fuel cell is 50 kW. ................................................. 95
Figure 55: Partial equilibrium model with elastic demands (based on [98,99])..................................... 98 Figure 56: Primary energy per capita [kW/Cap] consumption for an oil price of 75 US$2000/bbl with and
with elastic demand calculations ................................................................................................. 100 Figure 57: Wood-based process chains for bio-fuel production from wood considered in the SWISS-
MARKAL model. CNG stands for compressed natural gas and ICE stands for internal combustion engine. ......................................................................................................................................... 101
Figure 58: Wood-based process chains for combined heat and power (CHP) production considered in the SWISS-MARKAL model. For simplicity, transmission and distribution processes are not shown in the diagram................................................................................................................... 102
Figure 59: Wood-based process chains for heat production considered in the SWISS-MARKAL model. The abbreviation SFH stands for Single Family Houses. For simplicity, transmission and distribution processes are not shown in the diagram. ................................................................. 102
Figure 60: Primary-energy use of wood by different technologies for oil prices between 100 and 130 US$2000/bbl in the year 2050. The Fischer-Tropsch synthesis is not included as an option........ 104
Figure 61: Final-energy consumption by fuel of the transport sector for oil prices between 100 and 130 US$2000/bbl in the year 2050. ....................................................................................................... 106
Figure 62: Market penetration of the methanation plant for different oil prices and subsidies levels. The market penetration in the figure corresponds to the use of biomass for the Methanation processes expressed in [PJ]. ........................................................................................................................ 108
Figure 63: Market penetration of the methanation plant for different investment cost (high, medium, low). The market penetration in the figure corresponds to the use of biomass for the Methanation processes expressed in [PJ]. ....................................................................................................... 109
Figure 64: Primary-energy use of wood for an oil price of 80 US$2000/bbl in 2050 and bio-SNG subsidies of 4 US$/GJ. ................................................................................................................ 111
Figure 65: Total primary-energy consumption development for various kW/Cap targets and an oil price of 50 US$2000/bbl .......................................................................................................................... 144
Figure 66: Total primary-energy consumption development for various kW/Cap targets and an oil price of 75 US$2000/bbl .......................................................................................................................... 144
Figure 67: Total primary-energy consumption development for various kW/Cap targets and an oil price of 100 US$2000/bbl ........................................................................................................................ 145
Figure 68: Total primary-energy consumption development for various kW/Cap targets and an oil price of 125 US$2000/bbl ........................................................................................................................ 145
Figure 69: Primary-energy consumption per fuel in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets and an oil price of 50US$2000/bbl ............................................................................................................. 146
Figure 70: Primary-energy consumption per fuel in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets and an oil price of 75 US$2000/bbl ............................................................................................................ 146
List of figures 135
Figure 71: Primary-energy consumption per fuel in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets and an oil price of 100 US$2000/bbl .......................................................................................................... 147
Figure 72: Primary-energy consumption per fuel in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets and an oil price of 125 US$2000/bbl .......................................................................................................... 147
Figure 73: Total final-energy consumption [PJ] developments for various kW/Cap targets and an oil price of 50 US$2000/bbl ................................................................................................................. 148
Figure 74: Total final-energy consumption [PJ] developments for various kW/Cap targets and an oil price of 75 US$2000/bbl ................................................................................................................. 148
Figure 75: Total final-energy consumption [PJ] developments for various kW/Cap targets and an oil price of 100 US$2000/bbl ............................................................................................................... 149
Figure 76: Total final-energy consumption [PJ] developments for various kW/Cap targets and an oil price of 125 US$2000/bbl ............................................................................................................... 149
Figure 77: Final-energy consumption per sector in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets and an oil price of 50 US$2000/bbl ............................................................................................................ 150
Figure 78: Final-energy consumption per sector in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets and an oil price of 75 US$2000/bbl ............................................................................................................ 150
Figure 79: Final-energy consumption per sector in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets and an oil price of 100 US$2000/bbl .......................................................................................................... 151
Figure 80: Final-energy consumption per sector in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets and an oil price of 125 US$2000/bbl .......................................................................................................... 151
Figure 81: Final-energy consumption per fuel in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets and an oil price of 50 US$2000/bbl ................................................................................................................. 152
Figure 82: Final-energy consumption per fuel in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets and an oil price of 75 US$2000/bbl ................................................................................................................. 152
Figure 83: Final-energy consumption per fuel in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets and an oil price of 100 US$2000/bbl ............................................................................................................... 153
Figure 84: Final-energy consumption per fuel in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets and an oil price of 125 US$2000/bbl ............................................................................................................... 153
Figure 85: Final-energy consumption residential sector in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets and an oil price of 50 US$2000/bbl ................................................................................................ 154
Figure 86: Final-energy consumption residential sector in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets and an oil price of 75 US$2000/bbl ................................................................................................ 154
Figure 87: Final-energy consumption residential sector in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets and an oil price of 100 US$2000/bbl .............................................................................................. 155
Figure 88: Final-energy consumption residential sector in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets and an oil price of 125 US$2000/bbl .............................................................................................. 155
Figure 89: Final-energy consumption residential heating in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets and an oil price of 50 US$2000/bbl ................................................................................................ 156
Figure 90: Final-energy consumption residential heating in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets and an oil price of 75 US$2000/bbl ................................................................................................ 156
Figure 91: Final-energy consumption residential heating in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets and an oil price of 100 US$2000/bbl .............................................................................................. 157
Figure 92: Final-energy consumption residential heating in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets and an oil price of 125 US$2000/bbl .............................................................................................. 157
Figure 93: Final-energy consumption transportation sector in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets and an oil price of 50 US$2000/bbl .................................................................................... 158
Figure 94: Final-energy consumption transportation sector in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets and an oil price of 75 US$2000/bbl .................................................................................... 158
Figure 95: Final-energy consumption transportation sector in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets and an oil price of 100 US$2000/bbl .................................................................................. 159
Figure 96: Final-energy consumption transportation sector in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets and an oil price of 125 US$2000/bbl .................................................................................. 159
Figure 97: Final-energy consumption passenger cars in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets and an oil price of 50 US$2000/bbl ....................................................................................................... 160
Figure 98: Final-energy consumption passenger cars in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets and an oil price of 75 US$2000/bbl ....................................................................................................... 160
Figure 99: Final-energy consumption passenger cars in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets and an oil price of 100 US$2000/bbl ..................................................................................................... 161
Figure 100: Final-energy consumption passenger cars in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets and an oil price of 125 US$2000/bbl .............................................................................................. 161
Figure 101: Electricity production per fuel in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets and an oil price of 50 US$2000/bbl .......................................................................................................................... 162
List of figures 136
Figure 102: Electricity production per fuel in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets and an oil price of 75 US$2000/bbl .......................................................................................................................... 162
Figure 103: Electricity production per fuel in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets and an oil price of 100 US$2000/bbl ........................................................................................................................ 163
Figure 104: Electricity production per fuel in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets and an oil price of 125 US$2000/bbl ..................................................................................................................... 163
Figure 105: Total system costs increase for an oil price of 50 US$2000/bbl......................................... 164 Figure 106: Total system costs increase for an oil price of 75 US$2000/bbl......................................... 164 Figure 107: Total system costs increase for an oil price of 100 US$2000/bbl....................................... 165 Figure 108: Total system costs increase for an oil price of 125 US$2000/bbl....................................... 165 Figure 109: Total system costs increase over time for various CO2 targets and an oil price of 50
US$2000/bbl ................................................................................................................................... 166 Figure 110: Total system costs increase over time for various CO2 targets and an oil price of 75
US$2000/bbl ................................................................................................................................... 166 Figure 111: Total system costs increase over time for various CO2 targets and an oil price of 100
US$2000/bbl ................................................................................................................................... 167 Figure 112: Total system costs increase over time for various CO2 targets and an oil price of 125
US$2000/bbl ................................................................................................................................... 167 Figure 113: Total system costs increase over time for various CO2 targets, a 3.5 kW/Cap target and an
oil price of 50 US$2000/bbl ............................................................................................................ 168 Figure 114: Total system costs increase over time for various CO2 targets, a 3.5 kW/Cap target and an
oil price of 75 US$2000/bb ............................................................................................................. 168 Figure 115: Total system costs increase over time for various CO2 targets, a 3.5 kW/Cap target and an
oil price of 100 US$2000/bb ........................................................................................................... 169 Figure 116: Total system costs increase over time for various CO2 targets, a 3.5 kW/Cap target and an
oil price of 125 US$2000/bbl .......................................................................................................... 169
List of tables 137
List of tables
Table 1: Prices for fossil energy resources as assumed in this study. For a better understanding, the oil price is given both in US$/GJ and in US$/bbl. .......................................................................... 15
Table 2: Demand segments of the residential sector ............................................................................ 26 Table 3: Final-energy consumption 2000 – split by demand segments and fuels ................................ 26 Table 4: Future heating technologies .................................................................................................... 28 Table 5: Five-year period renovation rates of existing buildings [%]..................................................... 37 Table 6: End-use demand of residential demand segments [PJ].......................................................... 42 Table 7: Adratios residential sector ....................................................................................................... 44 Table 8: Demand segments of the transportation sector ...................................................................... 49 Table 9: Fuel consumption of the transportation sector in [PJ] in 2000 ................................................ 51 Table 10: Stock of vehicles [1000 Vehicels].......................................................................................... 52 Table 11: Changes of stock of vehicles due to tank tourism [1000 Vehicles] ....................................... 52 Table 12: Kilometres per vehicle travelled per annum [Vkm/ Vehicle / a] ............................................. 52 Table 13: Average efficiency of vehicles 2000 [Lt/100km] .................................................................... 52 Table 14: Conversion factors PJ to Lt for different fuels ....................................................................... 52 Table 15: Total Final-energy consumption vehicles.............................................................................. 53 Table 16: Demand segments of other transportation modes ................................................................ 55 Table 17: Adratios transportation sector ............................................................................................... 56
Appendix 138
Appendix 1: Technological description of room-heating technologies
Oil Natural Gas Heat Pump Pellets Biomass Pellets / Oil / Natural Gas / District Heat
Sole Air Water Solar Solar Solar
Room-Heating Single-Family Houses Existing Building (RH1)
INVCOST [mUS$2000/PJ/a] 297.0 288.6 412.6 334.9 438.4 379.9 424.5 475.5 410.0 364.1 -
FIXOM [mUS$2000/PJ/a] 7.4 9.8 12.7 10.3 11.5 13.7 13.7 14.7 9.4 10.8 -
η [%] 0.98 0.99 3.40 2.60 4.00 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.98 0.99 -
Room-Heating Single-Family Houses New Building (RH2)
INVCOST [mUS$2000/PJ/a] 298.9 295.4 422.6 342.7 441.2 389.0 427.2 487.0 419.9 372.9 -
FIXOM [mUS$2000/PJ/a] 7.8 9.1 9.7 10.0 9.9 15.3 13.7 16.3 9.8 10.1 -
η [%] 0.98 0.99 3.40 2.60 4.00 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.98 0.99 -
Room-Heating Multi-Family Houses Existing Buildings (RH3)
INVCOST [mUS$2000/PJ/a] 101.8 100.2 214.3 138.1 185.0 130.4 158.0 164.6 148.0 131.5 228.2
FIXOM [mUS$2000/PJ/a] 2.1 4.5 6.4 4.8 5.6 9.8 9.8 10.8 3.1 5.5 4.1
η [%] 0.98 0.99 3.60 2.80 4.00 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.98 0.99 0.86
Room-Heating Multi-Family Houses New Buildings (RH4)
INVCOST [mUS$2000/PJ/a] 103.4 101.6 217.3 140.0 187.8 132.2 160.4 166.9 150.1 133.3 231.7
FIXOM [mUS$2000/PJ/a] 2.6 4.5 6.4 5.0 5.6 10.9 10.9 11.9 3.6 5.5 4.1
η [%] 0.98 0.99 3.60 2.80 4.00 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.98 0.99 0.86
References: [114], [115], [116], [117], [69], own assumptions
INVCOST: Investment Costs; FIXOM: Fixed Costs; η: �Efficiency
Appendix 139
Appendix 2: Technological description of passenger cars
Investment costs O&M Costs Efficiency Fuel Engine
[mil. US$2000/bil. v-km] [mil. US$2000/bil. v-km] [bil. v-km/PJ]
Gasoline Internal Combustion Engine 1292.2 25.8 0.53
Electric Hybrid 1410.3 28.2 0.61
Hybrid Fuel Cell 5297.3 105.9 0.62
Diesel Internal Combustion Engine 1053.2 21.1 0.56
Electric Hybrid 1135.3 22.7 0.68
Compressed Natural Gas
Internal Combustion Engine 1340.8 26.8 0.52
Electric Hybrid 1401.6 28.0 0.68
Hydrogen Internal Combustion Engine 1551.5 31.0 0.60
Electric Hybrid 1595.8 31.9 0.67
Fuel Cell 4341.1 86.8 1.06
Hybrid Fuel Cell 4414.2 88.3 1.19
References: [97,98]
bil.: billon
mil.: million
v-km: vehicle kilometers
Appendix 140
Appendix 3: Biomass technology description
Technology Electric Efficiency [%]
Thermal Efficiency [%]
Capacity [MW]
Investment Costs
[CHF/kW]
Fixed O&M Costs [CHF/kW]
Variable O&M Costs [Rp/kWh]
Plant Factor [hours/year]
Methanation 55 (bio-SNG) 10 100 1583 55.4 0.198 8000
Fischer-Tropsch (FT) Synthesis 10 45 (FT
Diesel) 400 1553 54.3 0.194 8000
Decentralized CHP 40 40 0.5 1500 52.5 0.375 4000
Wood CHP (<2MWe) Gasification 25 50 8 2000 70 0.5 4000
Wood CHP (<2MWe) Combustion 12 65.3 0.45 7815 273.5 1.95 4000
Wood CHP (>2MWe) Gasification 43.3 42.9 138.5 2200 77 0.55 4000
Wood CHP (>2MWe) Combustion 12.4 63.2 26.6 596 20.9 0.149 4000
Gas heating in SFH - 100 10 1500 52.5 0.75 2000
Wood chips heating (50 kWth) - 80 0.05 1700 59.5 0.85 2000
Wood chips heating (300 kWth) - 80 0.3 750 26.25 0.375 2000
Wood chips heating (1000 kWth) - 80 1.0 500 17.5 0.25 2000
Pellet heating in SFH - 95 0.01 2500 87.5 1.25 2000
Wood chips + Nat. Gas Combustion 45 - 75 2000 70 0.25 8000
References : [51,118-121]
Appendix 141
Appendix 4: Final-energy calibration of the Swiss MARKAL model (SMM) to SFOE and IEA
statistic of the year 2000
SFOE [1] Oil Products Electricity Gas Coal Wood / Charcoal District heat Waste Other renewable energies Total
Residential 121.0 56.6 36.3 0.1 8.6 4.6 0.0 3.4 230.6 Industry 41.5 65.1 31.9 5.6 7.0 5.6 11.4 0.4 168.5 Commerce 51.7 53.8 21.2 0.0 3.5 3.0 4.4 2.1 139.6 Transport 293.3 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 302.8 Non-Energy Use 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other non-specified 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Agriculture 3.0 3.6 5.8 0.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.4 13.9
Total 510.4 188.5 95.2 5.9 20.0 13.3 15.7 6.3 855.3
IEA [49] Oil Products Electricity Gas Coal Wood / Charcoal District heat Waste Other renewable energies Total
Residential 124.3 56.6 36.3 0.5 8.9 4.6 0.0 3.5 234.6 Industry 42.5 65.1 37.5 10.1 6.8 5.6 11.3 0.3 179.3 Commerce 56.3 53.8 21.2 0.0 3.4 3.0 0.0 0.6 138.3 Transport 286.0 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 295.5 Non-Energy Use 18.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.1 Other non-specified 4.5 0.0 4.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.8 Agriculture 6.1 3.6 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 11.0
Total 537.8 188.6 99.1 10.6 20.0 13.3 11.3 4.8 885.5
SMM Calibration Oil Products Electricity Gas Coal Wood / Charcoal District heat Waste Other renewable energies Total Residential 121.5 55.1 37.9 0.4 8.5 5.1 0.0 3.5 232.1 Industry 44.8 63.9 36.9 5.7 7.4 5.3 12.3 0.0 176.3 Commerce 52.5 55.2 20.4 0.0 3.3 3.1 0.0 0.5 135.0 Transport 293.3 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 302.8 Non-Energy Use 16.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.4 Other non-specified 4.7 5.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.1 Agriculture 5.7 3.4 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 10.5 Total 538.9 187.2 100.6 6.2 20.1 13.5 12.3 4.4 883.2
Unit: [PJ]
Appendix 142
Appendix 5: Oil-price sensitivity
The results present here comprise various model results, including primary-energy
consumption, final-energy consumption, electricity consumption and total-system
costs. Each result is illustrated for oil prices of 50, 75, 100 and 125 US$2000/bbl in the
year 2050. In detail, the following results presented comprise:
Appendix 5.1: Primary Energy Balances
• Total primary-energy consumption development for various kW/Cap targets
• Primary-energy consumption per energy carrier in 2050 for various kW/Cap
and CO2 targets
Appendix 5.2: Final Energy Balances
• Total final-energy consumption developments for various kW/Cap targets
• Final-energy consumption per sectors in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2
targets
• Final-energy consumption per energy carriers in 2050 for various kW/Cap and
CO2 targets
• Final-energy consumption residential sector in 2050 for various kW/Cap and
CO2 targets
• Final-energy consumption residential heating in 2050 for various kW/Cap and
CO2 targets
• Final-energy consumption transportation sector in 2050 for various kW/Cap
and CO2
• Final-energy consumption passenger cars in 2050 for various kW/Cap and
CO2 targets
Appendix 5.3 Electricity Balance
• Electricity production in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets
Appendix 5.4: Total System Costs
• Total system costs increase for an oil price of 100US$2000/bbl
• Total system costs increase over time for various CO2 targets
Appendix 143
• Total system costs increase over time for various CO2 targets and a 3.5
kW/Cap target
Appendix 144
Appendix 5.1: Primary-energy balances
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Pri
mary
En
erg
y p
er
Cap
ita [
kW
/Cap
]
No kW/Cap target
5.0 kW/Cap target
4.5 kW/Cap target
4.0 kW/Cap target
3.5 kW/Cap target
Figure 67: Total primary-energy consumption development for various kW/Cap targets and an oil price of 50
US$2000/bbl.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Pri
mary
En
erg
y p
er
Cap
ita [
kW
/Cap
]
No kW/Cap target
5.0 kW/Cap target
4.5 kW/Cap target
4.0 kW/Cap target
3.5 kW/Cap target
Figure 68: Total primary-energy consumption development for various kW/Cap targets and an oil price of 75
US$2000/bbl.
Appendix 145
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Pri
mary
En
erg
y p
er
Cap
ita [
kW
/Cap
]
No kW/Cap target
5.0 kW/Cap target
4.5 kW/Cap target
4.0 kW/Cap target
3.5 kW/Cap target
Figure 69: Total primary-energy consumption development for various kW/Cap targets and an oil price of 100
US$2000/bbl.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Pri
mary
En
erg
y p
er
Cap
ita [
kW
/Cap
]
No kW/Cap target
5.0 kW/Cap target
4.5 kW/Cap target
4.0 kW/Cap target
3.5 kW/Cap target
Figure 70: Total primary-energy consumption development for various kW/Cap targets and an oil price of 125
US$2000/bbl.
Appendix 146
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
5.3
kW
(N
o L
imit)
4.9
kW
(N
o L
imit)
4.9
kW
(N
o L
imit)
5.0
kW
5.0
kW
5.0
kW
4.5
kW
4.5
kW
4.5
kW
4.0
kW
4.0
kW
4.0
kW
3.5
kW
3.5
kW
3.5
kW
0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10%
Pri
mary
En
erg
y [
kW
/Cap
ita
]
RenewablesHydroNuclearNatural Gas OilCoal
Energycarriers:
PEC target
CO2 limit
Figure 71: Primary-energy consumption per energy carriers in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets and
an oil price of 50US$2000/bbl.
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
5.2
kW
(N
o L
imit)
4.9
kW
(N
o L
imit)
4.8
kW
(N
o L
imit)
5.0
kW
5.0
kW
5.0
kW
4.5
kW
4.5
kW
4.5
kW
4.0
kW
4.0
kW
4.0
kW
3.5
kW
3.5
kW
3.5
kW
0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10%
Pri
mary
En
erg
y [
kW
/Cap
ita
]
RenewablesHydroNuclearNatural Gas OilCoal
Energycarriers:
PEC target
CO2 limit
Figure 72: Primary-energy consumption per energy carriers in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets and
an oil price of 75 US$2000/bbl.
Appendix 147
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
5.0
kW
(N
o L
imit)
4.9
kW
(N
o L
imit)
4.7
kW
(N
o L
imit)
5.0
kW
5.0
kW
5.0
kW
4.5
kW
4.5
kW
4.5
kW
4.0
kW
4.0
kW
4.0
kW
3.5
kW
3.5
kW
3.5
kW
0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10%
Pri
mary
En
erg
y [
kW
/Cap
ita]
RenewablesHydroNuclearNatural Gas OilCoal
Energycarriers:
PEC target
CO2 limit
Figure 73: Primary-energy consumption per energy carriers in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets and
an oil price of 100 US$2000/bbl.
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
4.9
kW
(N
o L
imit)
4.8
kW
(N
o L
imit)
4.6
kW
(N
o L
imit)
5.0
kW
5.0
kW
5.0
kW
4.5
kW
4.5
kW
4.5
kW
4.0
kW
4.0
kW
4.0
kW
3.5
kW
3.5
kW
3.5
kW
0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10%
Pri
mary
En
erg
y [
kW
/Cap
ita]
RenewablesHydroNuclearNatural Gas OilCoal
Energycarriers:
PEC target
CO2 limit
Figure 74: Primary-energy consumption per energy carriers in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets and
an oil price of 125 US$2000/bbl.
Appendix 148
Appendix 5.2: Final-energy balances
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
To
tal F
inal-
En
erg
y C
on
su
mp
tio
n [
PJ]
No kW/Cap target
5.0 kW/Cap target
4.5 kW/Cap target
4.0 kW/Cap target
3.5 kW/Cap target
Figure 75: Total final-energy consumption [PJ] developments for various kW/Cap targets and an oil price of 50
US$2000/bbl.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Fin
al-
En
erg
y C
on
su
mp
tio
n [
PJ]
No kW/Cap target
5.0 kW/Cap target
4.5 kW/Cap target
4.0 kW/Cap target
3.5 kW/Cap target
Figure 76: Total final-energy consumption [PJ] developments for various kW/Cap targets and an oil price of 75
US$2000/bbl.
Appendix 149
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Fin
al-
En
erg
y C
on
su
mp
tio
n [
PJ]
No kW/Cap target
5.0 kW/Cap target
4.5 kW/Cap target
4.0 kW/Cap target
3.5 kW/Cap target
Figure 77: Total final-energy consumption [PJ] developments for various kW/Cap targets and an oil price of
100 US$2000/bbl.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Fin
al-
En
erg
y C
on
su
mp
tio
n [
PJ]
No kW/Cap target
5.0 kW/Cap target
4.5 kW/Cap target
4.0 kW/Cap target
3.5 kW/Cap target
Figure 78: Total final-energy consumption [PJ] developments for various kW/Cap targets and an oil price of
125 US$2000/bbl.
Appendix 150
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
5.3
kW
(N
o L
imit)
4.9
kW
(N
o L
imit)
4.9
kW
(N
o L
imit)
5.0
kW
5.0
kW
5.0
kW
4.5
kW
4.5
kW
4.5
kW
4.0
kW
4.0
kW
4.0
kW
3.5
kW
3.5
kW
3.5
kW
0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10%
Fin
al-
En
erg
y C
on
su
mp
tio
n [
PJ
]
IndustrialTransportResidentialCommercialAgricultureOther non-specifiedNon-Energy Use
Sectors:
PEC target
CO2 limit
Figure 79: Final-energy consumption per sectors in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets and an oil price
of 50 US$2000/bbl.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
5.2
kW
(N
o L
imit)
4.9
kW
(N
o L
imit)
4.8
kW
(N
o L
imit)
5.0
kW
5.0
kW
5.0
kW
4.5
kW
4.5
kW
4.5
kW
4.0
kW
4.0
kW
4.0
kW
3.5
kW
3.5
kW
3.5
kW
0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10%
Fin
al-
En
erg
y C
on
su
mp
tio
n [
PJ
]
IndustrialTransportResidentialCommercialAgricultureOther non-specifiedNon-Energy Use
Sectors:
PEC target
CO2 limit
Figure 80: Final-energy consumption per sectors in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets and an oil price
of 75 US$2000/bbl.
Appendix 151
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
5.0
kW
(N
o L
imit)
4.9
kW
(N
o L
imit)
4.7
kW
(N
o L
imit)
5.0
kW
5.0
kW
5.0
kW
4.5
kW
4.5
kW
4.5
kW
4.0
kW
4.0
kW
4.0
kW
3.5
kW
3.5
kW
3.5
kW
0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10%
Fin
al-
En
erg
y C
on
su
mp
tio
n [
PJ
]
IndustrialTransportResidentialCommercialAgricultureOther non-specifiedNon-Energy Use
Sectors:
PEC target
CO2 limit
Figure 81: Final-energy consumption per sectors in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets and an oil price
of 100 US$2000/bbl.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
4.9
kW
(N
o L
imit)
4.8
kW
(N
o L
imit)
4.6
kW
(N
o L
imit)
5.0
kW
5.0
kW
5.0
kW
4.5
kW
4.5
kW
4.5
kW
4.0
kW
4.0
kW
4.0
kW
3.5
kW
3.5
kW
3.5
kW
0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10%
Fin
al-
En
erg
y C
on
su
mp
tio
n [
PJ
]
IndustrialTransportResidentialCommercialAgricultureOther non-specifiedNon-Energy Use
Sectors:
PEC target
CO2 limit
Figure 82: Final-energy consumption per sectors in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets and an oil price
of 125 US$2000/bbl.
Appendix 152
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
5.3
kW
(N
o L
imit)
4.9
kW
(N
o L
imit)
4.9
kW
(N
o L
imit)
5.0
kW
5.0
kW
5.0
kW
4.5
kW
4.5
kW
4.5
kW
4.0
kW
4.0
kW
4.0
kW
3.5
kW
3.5
kW
3.5
kW
0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10%
Fin
al-
En
erg
y C
on
su
mp
tio
n [
PJ
]
RenewablesWoodCoalGasElectricityOilWasteHeat
Energycarriers:
PEC target
CO2 limit
Figure 83: Final-energy consumption per energy carriers in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets and an
oil price of 50 US$2000/bbl.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
5.2
kW
(N
o L
imit)
4.9
kW
(N
o L
imit)
4.8
kW
(N
o L
imit)
5.0
kW
5.0
kW
5.0
kW
4.5
kW
4.5
kW
4.5
kW
4.0
kW
4.0
kW
4.0
kW
3.5
kW
3.5
kW
3.5
kW
0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10%
Fin
al-
En
erg
y C
on
su
mp
tio
n [
PJ
]
RenewablesWoodCoalGasElectricityOilWasteHeat
Energycarriers:
PEC target
CO2 limit
Figure 84: Final-energy consumption per energy carriers in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets and an
oil price of 75 US$2000/bbl.
Appendix 153
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
5.0
kW
(N
o L
imit)
4.9
kW
(N
o L
imit)
4.7
kW
(N
o L
imit)
5.0
kW
5.0
kW
5.0
kW
4.5
kW
4.5
kW
4.5
kW
4.0
kW
4.0
kW
4.0
kW
3.5
kW
3.5
kW
3.5
kW
0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10%
Fin
al-
En
erg
y C
on
su
mp
tio
n [
PJ
]
RenewablesWoodCoalGasElectricityOilWasteHeat
Energycarriers:
PEC target
CO2 limit
Figure 85: Final-energy consumption per energy carriers in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets and an
oil price of 100 US$2000/bbl.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
5.2
kW
(N
o L
imit)
4.9
kW
(N
o L
imit)
4.8
kW
(N
o L
imit)
5.0
kW
5.0
kW
5.0
kW
4.5
kW
4.5
kW
4.5
kW
4.0
kW
4.0
kW
4.0
kW
3.5
kW
3.5
kW
3.5
kW
0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10%
Fin
al-
En
erg
y C
on
su
mp
tio
n [
PJ
]
RenewablesWoodCoalGasElectricityOilWasteHeat
Energycarriers:
PEC target
CO2 limit
Figure 86: Final-energy consumption per energy carriers in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets and an
oil price of 125 US$2000/bbl.
Appendix 154
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
5.3
kW
(N
o L
imit)
4.9
kW
(N
o L
imit)
4.9
kW
(N
o L
imit)
5.0
kW
5.0
kW
5.0
kW
4.5
kW
4.5
kW
4.5
kW
4.0
kW
4.0
kW
4.0
kW
3.5
kW
3.5
kW
3.5
kW
0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10%
Fin
al E
ne
rgy
Co
ns
um
pti
on
[P
J]
Energy SavingsRenewablesHeatWoodGasElectricityOil
Energycarriers & savings:
PEC target
CO2 limit
Figure 87: Final-energy consumption residential sector in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets and an oil
price of 50 US$2000/bbl.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
5.2
kW
(N
o L
imit)
4.9
kW
(N
o L
imit)
4.8
kW
(N
o L
imit)
5.0
kW
5.0
kW
5.0
kW
4.5
kW
4.5
kW
4.5
kW
4.0
kW
4.0
kW
4.0
kW
3.5
kW
3.5
kW
3.5
kW
0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10%
Fin
al
En
erg
y C
on
su
mp
tio
n [
PJ]
Energy SavingsRenewablesHeatWoodGasElectricityOil
Energycarriers & savings:
PEC target
CO2 limit
Figure 88: Final-energy consumption residential sector in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets and an oil
price of 75 US$2000/bbl.
Appendix 155
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
5.0
kW
(N
o L
imit)
4.9
kW
(N
o L
imit)
4.7
kW
(N
o L
imit)
5.0
kW
5.0
kW
5.0
kW
4.5
kW
4.5
kW
4.5
kW
4.0
kW
4.0
kW
4.0
kW
3.5
kW
3.5
kW
3.5
kW
0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10%
Fin
al E
ne
rgy
Co
ns
um
pti
on
[P
J]
Energy SavingsRenewablesHeatWoodGasElectricityOil
Energycarriers & savings:
PEC target
CO2 limit
Figure 89: Final-energy consumption residential sector in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets and an oil
price of 100 US$2000/bbl.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
4.9
kW
(N
o L
imit)
4.8
kW
(N
o L
imit)
4.6
kW
(N
o L
imit)
5.0
kW
5.0
kW
5.0
kW
4.5
kW
4.5
kW
4.5
kW
4.0
kW
4.0
kW
4.0
kW
3.5
kW
3.5
kW
3.5
kW
0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10%
Fin
al E
ne
rgy
Co
ns
um
pti
on
[P
J]
Energy SavingsRenewablesHeatWoodGasElectricityOil
Energycarriers & savings:
PEC target
CO2 limit
Figure 90: Final-energy consumption residential sector in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets and an oil
price of 125 US$2000/bbl.
Appendix 156
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
5.3kW(No
Limit)
4.9kW(No
Limit)
4.9kW(No
Limit)
5.0kW
5.0kW
5.0kW
4.5kW
4.5kW
4.5kW
4.0kW
4.0kW
4.0kW
3.5kW
3.5kW
3.5kW
0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10%
Fin
al
En
erg
y C
on
su
mp
tio
n [
PJ]
BiomassOtherOilHeatNatural GasElectricity
Energy carriers:
PEC target
CO2 limit
Figure 91: Final-energy consumption residential heating in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets and an
oil price of 50 US$2000/bbl.
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
5.2kW(No
Limit)
4.9kW(No
Limit)
4.8kW(No
Limit)
5.0kW
5.0kW
5.0kW
4.5kW
4.5kW
4.5kW
4.0kW
4.0kW
4.0kW
3.5kW
3.5kW
3.5kW
0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10%
Fin
al E
nerg
y C
on
su
mp
tio
n [
PJ
]
BiomassOtherOilHeatNatural GasElectricity
Energy carriers:
PEC target
CO2 limit
Figure 92: Final-energy consumption residential heating in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets and an
oil price of 75 US$2000/bbl.
Appendix 157
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
5.0kW(No
Limit)
4.9kW(No
Limit)
4.7kW(No
Limit)
5.0kW
5.0kW
5.0kW
4.5kW
4.5kW
4.5kW
4.0kW
4.0kW
4.0kW
3.5kW
3.5kW
3.5kW
0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10%
Fin
al
En
erg
y C
on
su
mp
tio
n [
PJ]
BiomassOtherOilHeatNatural GasElectricity
Energy carriers:
PEC target
CO2 limit
Figure 93: Final-energy consumption residential heating in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets and an
oil price of 100 US$2000/bbl.
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
4.9kW(No
Limit)
4.8kW(No
Limit)
4.6kW(No
Limit)
5.0kW
5.0kW
5.0kW
4.5kW
4.5kW
4.5kW
4.0kW
4.0kW
4.0kW
3.5kW
3.5kW
3.5kW
0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10%
Fin
al
En
erg
y C
on
su
mp
tio
n [
PJ]
BiomassOtherOilHeatNatural GasElectricity
Energy carriers:
PEC target
CO2 limit
Figure 94: Final-energy consumption residential heating in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets and an
oil price of 125 US$2000/bbl.
Appendix 158
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
5.3kW(No
Limit)
4.9kW(No
Limit)
4.9kW(No
Limit)
5.0kW
5.0kW
5.0kW
4.5kW
4.5kW
4.5kW
4.0kW
4.0kW
4.0kW
3.5kW
3.5kW
3.5kW
0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10%
Fin
al
En
erg
y C
on
su
mp
tio
n [
PJ]
HydrogenGasElectricityOil
Energy carriers:
PEC target
CO2 limit
Figure 95: Final-energy consumption transportation sector in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets and an
oil price of 50 US$2000/bbl.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
5.2kW(No
Limit)
4.9kW(No
Limit)
4.8kW(No
Limit)
5.0kW
5.0kW
5.0kW
4.5kW
4.5kW
4.5kW
4.0kW
4.0kW
4.0kW
3.5kW
3.5kW
3.5kW
0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10%
Fin
al
En
erg
y C
on
su
mp
tio
n [
PJ]
HydrogenGasElectricityOil
Energy carriers:
PEC target
CO2 limit
Figure 96: Final-energy consumption transportation sector in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets and an
oil price of 75 US$2000/bbl.
Appendix 159
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
5.0kW(No
Limit)
4.9kW(No
Limit)
4.7kW(No
Limit)
5.0kW
5.0kW
5.0kW
4.5kW
4.5kW
4.5kW
4.0kW
4.0kW
4.0kW
3.5kW
3.5kW
3.5kW
0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10%
Fin
al
En
erg
y C
on
su
mp
tio
n [
PJ]
HydrogenGasElectricityOil
Energy carriers:
PEC target
CO2 limit
Figure 97: Final-energy consumption transportation sector in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets and an
oil price of 100 US$2000/bbl.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
4.9kW(No
Limit)
4.8kW(No
Limit)
4.6kW(No
Limit)
5.0kW
5.0kW
5.0kW
4.5kW
4.5kW
4.5kW
4.0kW
4.0kW
4.0kW
3.5kW
3.5kW
3.5kW
0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10%
Fin
al
En
erg
y C
on
su
mp
tio
n [
PJ]
HydrogenGasElectricityOil
Energy carriers:
PEC target
CO2 limit
Figure 98: Final-energy consumption transportation sector in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets and an
oil price of 125 US$2000/bbl.
Appendix 160
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
5.3kW(No
Limit)
4.9kW(No
Limit)
4.9kW(No
Limit)
5.0kW
5.0kW
5.0kW
4.5kW
4.5kW
4.5kW
4.0kW
4.0kW
4.0kW
3.5kW
3.5kW
3.5kW
0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10%
Fin
al
En
erg
y C
on
su
mp
tio
n [
PJ]
HydrogenNatural GasGasolineDiesel
Energycarriers:
PEC target
CO2 limit
Figure 99: Final-energy consumption passenger cars in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets and an oil
price of 50 US$2000/bbl.
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
5.2kW(No
Limit)
4.9kW(No
Limit)
4.8kW(No
Limit)
5.0kW
5.0kW
5.0kW
4.5kW
4.5kW
4.5kW
4.0kW
4.0kW
4.0kW
3.5kW
3.5kW
3.5kW
0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10%
Fin
al
En
erg
y C
on
su
mp
tio
n [
PJ]
HydrogenNatural GasGasolineDiesel
Energycarriers:
PEC target
CO2 limit
Figure 100: Final-energy consumption passenger cars in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets and an oil
price of 75 US$2000/bbl.
Appendix 161
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
5.0kW(No
Limit)
4.9kW(No
Limit)
4.7kW(No
Limit)
5.0kW
5.0kW
5.0kW
4.5kW
4.5kW
4.5kW
4.0kW
4.0kW
4.0kW
3.5kW
3.5kW
3.5kW
0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10%
Fin
al
En
erg
y C
on
su
mp
tio
n [
PJ]
HydrogenNatural GasGasolineDiesel
Energycarriers:
PEC target
CO2 limit
Figure 101: Final-energy consumption passenger cars in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets and an oil
price of 100 US$2000/bbl.
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
4.9kW(No
Limit)
4.8kW(No
Limit)
4.6kW(No
Limit)
5.0kW
5.0kW
5.0kW
4.5kW
4.5kW
4.5kW
4.0kW
4.0kW
4.0kW
3.5kW
3.5kW
3.5kW
0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10%
Fin
al
En
erg
y C
on
su
mp
tio
n [
PJ]
HydrogenNatural GasGasolineDiesel
Energycarriers:
PEC target
CO2 limit
Figure 102: Final-energy consumption passenger cars in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets and an oil
price of 125 US$2000/bbl.
Appendix 162
Appendix 5.3: Electricity balance
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
5.3
kW (
No
Lim
it)
4.9
kW (
No
Lim
it)
4.9
kW (
No
Lim
it)
5.0
kW
5.0
kW
5.0
kW
4.5
kW
4.5
kW
4.5
kW
4.0
kW
4.0
kW
4.0
kW
3.5
kW
3.5
kW
3.5
kW
0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10%
Ele
ctr
icit
y P
rod
ucti
on
[T
Wh
]
Biomass CogenerationNatural Gas CogenerationSolar PowerWind TurbinesBiomass ThermalConventional Thermal and OthersNuclear PowerHydro Power
Electricity production technologies:
PEC target
CO2 limit
Figure 103: Electricity production in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets and an oil price of 50
US$2000/bbl.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
5.2
kW (
No
Lim
it)
4.9
kW (
No
Lim
it)
4.8
kW (
No
Lim
it)
5.0
kW
5.0
kW
5.0
kW
4.5
kW
4.5
kW
4.5
kW
4.0
kW
4.0
kW
4.0
kW
3.5
kW
3.5
kW
3.5
kW
0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10%
Ele
ctr
icit
y P
rod
ucti
on
[T
Wh
]
Biomass CogenerationNatural Gas CogenerationSolar PowerWind TurbinesBiomass ThermalConventional Thermal and OthersNuclear PowerHydro Power
Electricity production technologies:
PEC target
CO2 limit
Figure 104: Electricity production in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets and an oil price of 75
US$2000/bbl.
Appendix 163
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
5.0
kW (
No
Lim
it)
4.9
kW (
No
Lim
it)
4.7
kW (
No
Lim
it)
5.0
kW
5.0
kW
5.0
kW
4.5
kW
4.5
kW
4.5
kW
4.0
kW
4.0
kW
4.0
kW
3.5
kW
3.5
kW
3.5
kW
0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10%
Ele
ctr
icit
y P
rod
ucti
on
[T
Wh
]
Biomass CogenerationNatural Gas CogenerationSolar PowerWind TurbinesBiomass ThermalConventional Thermal and OthersNuclear PowerHydro Power
Electricity production technologies:
PEC target
CO2 limit
Figure 105: Electricity production in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets and an oil price of 100
US$2000/bbl.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
4.9
kW (
No
Lim
it)
4.8
kW (
No
Lim
it)
4.6
kW (
No
Lim
it)
5.0
kW
5.0
kW
5.0
kW
4.5
kW
4.5
kW
4.5
kW
4.0
kW
4.0
kW
4.0
kW
3.5
kW
3.5
kW
3.5
kW
0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10%
Ele
ctr
icit
y P
rod
ucti
on
[T
Wh
]
Biomass CogenerationNatural Gas CogenerationSolar PowerWind TurbinesBiomass ThermalConventional Thermal and OthersNuclear PowerHydro Power
Electricity production technologies:
PEC target
CO2 limit
Figure 106: Electricity production in 2050 for various kW/Cap and CO2 targets and an oil price of 125
US$2000/bbl.
Appendix 164
Appendix 5.4: Total system costs
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
5.3
kW (
No
Lim
it)
4.9
kW (
No
Lim
it)
4.9
kW (
No
Lim
it)
5.0
kW ta
rget
5.0
kW ta
rget
5.0
kW ta
rget
4.5
kW ta
rget
4.5
kW ta
rget
4.5
kW ta
rget
4.0
kW ta
rget
4.0
kW ta
rget
4.0
kW ta
rget
3.5
kW ta
rget
3.5
kW ta
rget
3.5
kW ta
rget
0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10%
Ad
dit
ion
al T
ota
l-S
yste
m C
osts
[b
illio
n U
S$
20
00]
Series1
PEC target
CO2 limit
Figure 107: Total system costs increase for an oil price of 50 US$2000/bbl.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
5.2
kW (
No
Lim
it)
4.9
kW (
No
Lim
it)
4.8
kW (
No
Lim
it)
5.0
kW ta
rget
5.0
kW ta
rget
5.0
kW ta
rget
4.5
kW ta
rget
4.5
kW ta
rget
4.5
kW ta
rget
4.0
kW ta
rget
4.0
kW ta
rget
4.0
kW ta
rget
3.5
kW ta
rget
3.5
kW ta
rget
3.5
kW ta
rget
0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10%
Ad
dit
ion
al T
ota
l-S
yste
m C
osts
[b
illio
n U
S$
20
00]
Series1
PEC target
CO2 limit
Figure 108: Total system costs increase for an oil price of 75 US$2000/bbl.
Appendix 165
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
5.0
kW (
No
Lim
it)
4.9
kW (
No
Lim
it)
4.7
kW (
No
Lim
it)
5.0
kW ta
rget
5.0
kW ta
rget
5.0
kW ta
rget
4.5
kW ta
rget
4.5
kW ta
rget
4.5
kW ta
rget
4.0
kW ta
rget
4.0
kW ta
rget
4.0
kW ta
rget
3.5
kW ta
rget
3.5
kW ta
rget
3.5
kW ta
rget
0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10%
Ad
dit
ion
al T
ota
l-S
yste
m C
osts
[b
illio
n U
S$
20
00]
Series1
PEC target
CO2 limit
Figure 109: Total system costs increase for an oil price of 100 US$2000/bbl.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
4.9
kW (
No
Lim
it)
4.8
kW (
No
Lim
it)
4.6
kW (
No
Lim
it)
5.0
kW ta
rget
5.0
kW ta
rget
5.0
kW ta
rget
4.5
kW ta
rget
4.5
kW ta
rget
4.5
kW ta
rget
4.0
kW ta
rget
4.0
kW ta
rget
4.0
kW ta
rget
3.5
kW ta
rget
3.5
kW ta
rget
3.5
kW ta
rget
0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10%
Ad
dit
ion
al T
ota
l-S
yste
m C
osts
[b
illio
n U
S$
20
00]
Series1
PEC target
CO2 limit
Figure 110: Total system costs increase for an oil price of 125 US$2000/bbl.
Appendix 166
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Total
Ad
dit
ion
al T
ota
l-S
yste
m C
osts
[b
illio
n U
S$2000]
5 % CO2 limit 10 % CO2 limit
Figure 111: Total system costs increase over time for various CO2 targets and an oil price of 50 US$2000/bbl.
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Total
Ad
dit
ion
al T
ota
l-S
yste
m C
osts
[b
illio
n U
S$2000]
5 % CO2 limit 10 % CO2 limit
Figure 112: Total system costs increase over time for various CO2 targets and an oil price of 75 US$2000/bbl.
Appendix 167
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Total
Ad
dit
ion
al T
ota
l-S
yste
m C
osts
[b
illio
n U
S$2000]
5 % CO2 limit 10 % CO2 limit
Figure 113: Total system costs increase over time for various CO2 targets and an oil price of 100 US$2000/bbl.
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Total
Ad
dit
ion
al T
ota
l-S
yste
m C
osts
[b
illio
n U
S$2000]
5 % CO2 limit 10 % CO2 limit
Figure 114: Total system costs increase over time for various CO2 targets and an oil price of 125 US$2000/bbl.
Appendix 168
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Total
Ad
dit
ion
al T
ota
l-S
yste
m C
osts
[b
illio
n U
S$2000]
no CO2 limit 5 % CO2 limit 10 % CO2 limit
Figure 115: Total system costs increase over time for various CO2 targets, a 3.5 kW/Cap target and an oil price
of 50 US$2000/bbl.
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Total
Ad
dit
ion
al T
ota
l-S
yste
m C
osts
[b
illio
n U
S$2000]
no CO2 limit 5 % CO2 limit 10 % CO2 limit
Figure 116: Total system costs increase over time for various CO2 targets, a 3.5 kW/Cap target and an oil price
of 75 US$2000/bbl.
Appendix 169
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Total
Ad
dit
ion
al T
ota
l-S
yste
m C
osts
[b
illio
n U
S$2000]
no CO2 limit 5 % CO2 limit 10 % CO2 limit
Figure 117: Total system costs increase over time for various CO2 targets, a 3.5 kW/Cap target and an oil price
of 100 US$2000/bbl.
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Total
Ad
dit
ion
al T
ota
l-S
yste
m C
osts
[b
illio
n U
S$2000]
no CO2 limit 5 % CO2 limit 10 % CO2 limit
Figure 118: Total system costs increase over time for various CO2 targets, a 3.5 kW/Cap target and an oil price
of 125 US$2000/bbl.
Curriculum Vitae 170
Curriculum Vitae
Name: Thorsten Frank Schulz
Date of birth: January 13th, 1977
Place of birth: Darmstadt, Germany
Nationality: German
Academic qualifications
PhD studies in Energy Policy Assessment
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH) Zurich, Switzerland 01/2004 – 06/2007
• Degree: Dr. sc. ETH Zürich
• Topic: Intermediate Steps towards the 2000-Watt Society in Switzerland:
Graduate studies in Environmental Engineering
University of Stuttgart, Germany 10/1997 – 09/2003
• Degree: Dipl.-Ing.
• Topic: Integrated Environmental and Climatic Strategies for the South African Electricity Sector
Abitur
Justus-Liebig-School, Darmstadt, Germany 09/1995 – 06/1997
• German university entrance degree
High School Graduation Diploma
Crocus Plains Regional Secondary School, Brandon, Canada 08/1994 – 07/1995
• Year 12 certificate
Scholarships
Country-Foundation Baden-Württemberg Scholarship 04/2003 – 08/2003
• Research exchange to the Energy Research Centre (ERC), University of Cape Town
German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) Scholarship 02/2001 – 12/2001
• Academic student exchange to the Energy Research Centre (ERC), University of Cape Town
(UCT), South Africa
(UCT), South Africa
An Energy-Economic Scenario Analysis
Curriculum Vitae 171
Selected Publications and Technical Reports Schulz T.F., Kypreos S. Barreto L., Wokaun A.: Intermediate Steps towards the 2000-Watt Society in Switzerland: An energy-economic scenario analysis. Energy Policy (2007), submitted, July 2007. Bauer C., Schulz T.F., Hirschberg S., Jermann M., Wokaun A.: The 2000-Watt-Society: Standard or guidepost?. Energie-Spiegel, Facts for the Energy Decisions of Tomorrow, Nr. 18, ISSN 1661-5115, Paul Scherrer Institute, Villigen, Switzerland, April 2007. Schulz T.F., Barreto L., Kypreos S. Sticki S.: Assessing wood-based synthetic natural gas technologies using the SWISS-MARKAL model. Energy (2007), doi:10.1016/j.energy.2007.03.006, March 2007. Barreto L., Schulz T.F., Kypreos S.: Impact of CO2 Constraints on the Swiss Energy System: A long-term Analysis with the Swiss-MARKAL Model. Contribution to the NCCR-Climate WP4 Report to the Swiss Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN) on "Climate Vulnerability and Policy in a Post-Kyoto World". Energy Economics Group, Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis, The Energy Departments, Paul Scherrer Institute, Villigen, Switzerland, January 2007. Schulz T.F., Kypreos S.: Country Report for Switzerland, Description of the Swiss-TIMES model for the New Energy Externatlities Development for Sustainability (NEEDS). Final Country Report for Research Stream 2a: Energy systems modelling and internalisation strategies, including scenario building. Energy Economics Group, Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis, The Energy Departments, Paul Scherrer Institute, Villigen, Switzerland, December 2006. Wokaun A., Kypreos S., Barreto L., Krzyzanowski D.A., Rafaj P., Schulz T.F.: Strategies for a Cost-Efficient Climate Protection Policy (in German). Boxenstopp – der Tagungsband, 17. May 2005. NFS Klima, Schweizer Klimaforschung, Bern, Switzerland, 2005. Stucki S., Vogel F., Biollaz S., Schulz T.F., Bauer C.: SFOE Energy Perspectives Biomass, Renewable Energy, and new Nuclear Plants: Potentials and Costs, BFE Energieperspektiven Biomasse, Erneuerbare Energien und neue Nuklearanlagen: Potenziale und Kosten (in German). PSI Scientific Report Nr. 05-04, ISSN 1019-0643. Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI) for the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE), Villigen, Switzerland, May 2005. Schulz T.F., Barreto L., Kypreos S., Wokaun A.: Steps Towards a 2000 Watt Society. PSI Scientific Report 2004, Volume V, ISSN 1423-7342. Energy Economics Group, General Energy Research Department, Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI), Villigen, Switzerland, March 2005. Schulz T.F.: Integrated Environmental and Climatic Strategies for the South African Electricity Sector. Master Thesis, Diplomarbeit. Energy Research Centre (ERC), University of Cape Town (UCT), South Africa and Institute of Energy Economics and Rational Use of Energy (IER), University of Stuttgart, Germany, September 2003.
Selected Conference Proceedings Schulz T.F., Barreto L., Kypreos S., Stucki S.: Assessing Wood-Based Synthetic Natural Gas (Bio-SNG) Technologies. Poster presentation at the NCCR Climate Summer School, Grindelwald, Switzerland, 27 August – 1 September 2006. Schulz T.F, Barreto L., Kypreos S., Stucki S.: Assessing Wood-Based Synthetic Natural Gas Technologies using the Swiss-MARKAL model. International Energy Workshop organized by Research Centre (ERC) University of Cape Town, Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) Stanford University, International Energy Agency (IEA) and the International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA), Cape Town, South Africa, 27-29 June 2006. Schulz T.F., Kypreos S., Barreto L., Wokaun A.: Steps towards the 2000 Watt Society in Switzerland. Energy Technology System Analysis Programme (ETSAP) Workshop, Florence, Italy, 11. November 2004.