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Oleksandr Zhemoyda
Association “Ukrainian Agribusiness Club”
Status Quo and Future Challenges for Ukrainian Agricultural Production
www.ucab.ua
Increasing of Consumption
Protein Consumption
Added Value
Biofuel
Specialization
“Hidden” Supply
Food Security
Competitiveness
Export
Consumption of basic food products in Ukraine (incl. non-tradable use)
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15,2
37,7
51
51,7
113
145
135
300
202,3
11,6
50
47,7
68,2
141
102,5
131
272
373,2
0 100 200 300 400
Oil
Sugar
Fruits, berries and grapes
Meat and meat Products
Bakery
Vegetables
Potato
Eggs
Milk and Dairy
1990 kilo per capita 2011 kilo per capita
Wheat Surplus
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www.ucab.uaSource: Fan Y., Ren S., Cai H, Cui H., 2014. The state's role and
position in international trade: A complex network perspectives.
Communities of the International Trade Network
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0
2
4
6
8
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12
14
16
18
20
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Ukraine World
Ag Trade to GDP Ratio
Export Destinations
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Ukrainian AgriFood Export, 2003
Ukrainian AgriFood Export, 2013
• Good Trade Links• Deep Historical and Cultural Links
External Markets -Export Outlook
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Main markets Main Items
Trade balance Prospects for trade
64% of export revenue made by corn (23%), wheat (11%), oilseeds (7%),
sunflower oil (19%) and protein meal (5%)
The foreign trade turnover for agricultural and food in 2013 was 25,2 bill. USD,
export - 17,0 bill.USD, import - 8,2 bill. USD.
Positive Trade Balance - 8,8 bill. USD
Share in total Ukrainian export – 26.8 %, in import – 10.7 %
Russia11%
Egypt9%
India6%
Spain5%
The Netherlands
4%
Other65%
The main export markets for the next period with the high certainty will be the
Asian, African and EU.
The main export items –corn, wheat, sunflower oil and soybean.
Potentially –vegetables and fruits, dairy and poultry meat.
Ukraine is a No 1 global exporter of Sunflower oil, No 3 exporter of Cereal, Top-5 Exporter or Producer of Oilseeds, Sugar beet and Honey
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Density of trade relations under the EU agricultural market
a) EU – 15
a) "Old Europe" Group b) "Mediterranean Group" c) "Nordic" Group d) CEEC Group
Geographical indications
Historical indication
a) EU – 10
Source: Kvasha K., Ryabchenko O., Kvasha S., Dibrova A., Zhemoyda O.
Changes in Trade Orientation, 2001-2013
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Export from UkraineAverage
SharePlace Change
Russian Federation 23,75311 1 =
Egypt 4,281252 4 3
India 2,690816 8 5
Spain 5,327996 2 -2
Netherlands 3,083083 6 1
Turkey 2,958041 7 1
Italy 2,50744 10 3
Poland 2,310926 12 4
Iran 2,498251 11 2
France 1,885694 13 3
Import to UkraineAverage
SharePlace Change
Russian Federation12,55868 1 =
Germany7,169024 2 =
Turkey4,541626 6 3
Poland5,524649 5 1
USA 6,17885 4 =
Brazil 6,75702 3 -4
Ecuador2,580309 10 3
Norway3,923969 8 =
France2,974322 9 =
Netherlands3,980127 7 -3
The main export markets – Annual Growth (2009-2013)
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0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 4 4,5
China
Japan
Spain
Iran (Islamic Republic of)
Italy
Egypt
Poland
India
Netherlands
Turkey
Israel
Belarus
France
ROW
Russian Federation
Republic of Moldova
Syrian Arab Republic
Saudi Arabia
The main importing countries - Annual Growth (2009-2013)
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0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1 1,2 1,4 1,6
Iceland
Spain
India
Italy
Ecuador
United Kingdom
Turkey
France
Hungary
Indonesia
United States of America
Georgia
China
Germany
Russian Federation
Norway
Poland
Netherlands
Brazil
EU markets
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Purpose
• Export Diversification
• Consuming Market (over 508 mln consumers)
• Nish vs. SpecializationMeans
• Market recognition
• Quality Increasing
• Regional Leadership
Compliance growth rate of imports from Ukraine the Total growth of imports to the EU market,%
www.ucab.uaSources: UCAB
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
Animal/veg fats&oils&fract boild oxid
Oil-cake and other solid residues
Maize (corn) nes
Sugar beet seed, for sowing
Potato flakes
Spirits obtained by distilling grape wine orgrape marc
Flours and meals of oil seeds or oleaginousfruits,
Refined sugar, in solid form, nes
Oil-cake and other solid residues
Cereal groats and meal nes Ukrainian Total
Items with significant Ukrainian share
in Import to EU, 2013
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HS 2012
Import to EU,
total, mln.
euro
Import from
Ukraine, mln.
euro
Share of
Ukraine in
total import, %
230620Linseed oil-cake & other solid residues, whether or not
ground or pellet1.8 1.5 80.4%
100590 Corn 2380.3 1453.9 61.1%
110319 Cereal groats and meal nes 1.1 0.6 56.9%
230630Sunflower seed oil-cake & other solid residues, whether/not
ground/pellet691.5 385.7 55.8%
151211 Sunflower-seed or safflower oil, crude 702.7 385.5 54.9%
100790 Grain sorghum (excl. for sowing) 73.6 32.3 43.9%
140490 Vegetable products nes 142.2 60.0 42.2%
120510Low erucic acid rape or colza seeds "yielding a fixed oil which
has an1667.6 678.1 40.7%
100829 Buckwheat, millet and canary seed 15.5 5.1 33.2%
DC FTA – challenges and opportunities
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Signing of the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the EU (both
political and economic parts) the European Union sends strong signals to
investors and creates favorable conditions for the development of the economy
of Ukraine.
DCFTA will facilitate the adaptation of Ukrainian legislation to the EU
regulatory norms and as the result – to assist the Ukrainian Agribusiness
became more efficient and clear for investors and partners.
Hopefully, Ukrainian Agribusiness will experience full benefits of the access to
European markets after the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area is
established.
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Trade Matrix Based on Trade Density and Trade Orientation
(Share of Ukrainian export in Total country group Volume of Import, %)
BSEC ASEAN CEEC CIS EUROPE GUAAM
1 Live animals 4,42748
2 Meat and edible meat offal 3,42467 10,8413
3 Fish, crustaceans, molluscs, aquatic invertebrates nes
4 Dairy products, eggs, honey, edible animal product nes 10,6224 9,5764 15,0184
5 Products of animal origin, nes
6 Live trees, plants, bulbs, roots, cut flowers etc
7 Edible vegetables and certain roots and tubers 3,02057 7,31323
8 Edible fruit, nuts, peel of citrus fruit, melons 1,09119 3,59302
9 Coffee, tea, mate and spices
10 Cereals 21,2041 3,33424 4,36306 3,96469 7,76819 3,16796
11 Milling products, malt, starches, inulin, wheat gluten 20,0518 10,1103 38,8744
12 Oil seed, oleagic fruits, grain, seed, fruit, etc, nes 15,2162 1,62831 8,20144 5,84611 5,3221 10,1125
13 Lac, gums, resins, vegetable saps and extracts nes
14 Vegetable plaiting materials, vegetable products nes 69,5096 19,892
15 Animal,vegetable fats and oils, cleavage products, etc 13,899 2,96238 11,7975 2,20978 36,7732
16 Meat, fish and seafood food preparations nes 16,2635
17 Sugars and sugar confectionery 18,8095 3,96469 20,7993
18 Cocoa and cocoa preparations 10,6281 21,828 24,8735
19 Cereal, flour, starch, milk preparations and products 13,7899 16,2635 26,6233
20 Vegetable, fruit, nut, etc food preparations 14,4146 1,58624 11,2273 10,409
21 Miscellaneous edible preparations 7,40472 16,1316
22 Beverages, spirits and vinegar 15,3989 8,1224 14,6258
23 Residues, wastes of food industry, animal fodder 27,2833 2,86188 8,892 2,02338 7,14047
24 Tobacco and manufactured tobacco substitutes 20,726 11,6538 41,2331
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Growth of Ukrainian Supply and World Demand – Export Capability
Growth of Ukrainian Demand and World Supply – Import Requisite
World Market Share in Export World Market Share in Import
Trends in domestic and international market segments
Annual Growth of World Import and Ukrainian Export, 2009-2013, %
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-10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Fish, crustaceans, molluscs
Edible vegetables and certain roots
Edible fruit, nuts, peel of citrus fruit, melons
Beverages, spirits and vinegar
Lac, gums, resins, vegetable saps and extracts nes
Live trees
Cocoa and cocoa preparations
Dairy products, eggs, honey
Tobacco and manufactured tobacco
Products of animal origin
Milling products
Meat, fish and seafood
Coffee, tea
Live animals
Sugars and sugar confectionery
Oil seed
Animal,vegetable fats and oils
Cereal, flour
Cereals
Vegetable, fruit, nut
Miscellaneous edible
Residues, wastes of food industry
Meat and edible meat offal
Vegetable plaiting materials
'03
'07
'08
'22
'13
'06
'18
'04
'24
'05
'11
'16
'09
'01
'17
'12
'15
'19
'10
'20
'21
'23
'02
'14
World Import Ukrainian Export
Synthesis conclusion
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Dependency form geographical and historical relations in export is strong BUT less
than the previous decade, and a change in the orientation of trade from the former Soviet
Union markets to the European and Asian destinations have been already held.
World Demand and Ukrainian Supply oncoming will contributes the further Export
orientation, lag growth rate of domestic exports growth rate of world imports of certain
commodity groups (03,04,05,06,07,08,13,18,24) leaves room for domestic exporters
The significant share of Ukrainian products imports to the EU and other neighboring
economic unions and associations demonstrates an opportunity for further development.
