Status and RoadmapVehicle Emission StandardSupporting the Implementation and Advancement of Vehicle Emission Policies in Southeast AsiaFebruary 23-24, 2016, Opal Room, Crowne Plaza Ortigas Pasig City, Metro Manila, Philippines

Ahmad Safrudin• Executive Director KPBB• Secretary for Working Group of Vehicular Emissions Standard Development – Ministry of Environment

Republic of Indonesia

KPBBSarinah Building 12th Floor, Jalan MH Thamrin # 11 Jakarta Indonesia 10350Phone: +62-21-3190 6807 Fax: +62-21-315 3401e-mail: puput@kpbb.org, www.kpbb.org

Outline

• Background

– Air Quality

– Vehicular Emission Reduction Strategy

– Fuel Quality

• Cost Effective of Emission Reduction

• Roadmap Low Emission Vehicle

• Conclusion

Air Quality

Modeled using ATMoS dispersion model and WRF meteorological fields

Air Pollution and Its Health EffectCase: Jakarta - 2010

• Total population of Jakarta is 9,607,787• 57.8% of the Jakarta population were suffered by

various air pollution-related diseases : – 1,210,581 people suffered by asthmatic

bronchiale (compared with 500,000 population founded by Ostro 1994);

– 173,487 people with bronchopneumonia; – 2,449,986 with ARI; – 336,273 people with pneumonia; – 153,724 people with COPD, and; – 1,246,130 people with coronary artery diseases.

• Total direct health cost IDR 38.5 trillions ~ USD 3.1 billions

Bandung Jakarta Serpong Yogyakarta Palangkaraya Pekanbaru Semarang Surabaya Ambon Jayapura Bali Makassar

Maksimum 23.08 21.71 20.88 48.93 10.32 45.00 23.25 26.38 11.52 7.13 14.74 14.29

Mean 11.88 13.54 11.96 13.48 4.77 18.60 14.49 16.40 6.16 3.76 9.44 6.35

Minimum 3.79 7.54 1.36 3.51 0.42 6.72 2.12 7.03 3.73 0.98 3.44 1.55

Bandung Jakarta Serpong Yogyakarta Palangkaraya Pekanbaru Semarang Surabaya Ambon Jayapura Bali Makassar

Maksimum 53.2 73.3 50.1 61.1 25.9 148.6 618.4 51.3 25.4 15.8 31.4 35.5

Mean 33.4 46.4 26.0 22.9 12.1 60.8 54.5 29.9 14.7 9.6 22.5 17.5

Minimum 15.9 27.0 4.4 5.9 6.4 16.7 9.0 13.5 8.4 4.4 7.4 8.3

Bandung Jakarta Serpong Yogyakarta Palangkaraya Pekanbaru Semarang Surabaya Ambon Jayapura Bali Makassar

Maksimum 4.85 4.72 3.32 4.31 2.47 4.33 6.17 5.69 2.44 1.82 3.56 3.22

Mean 2.87 3.20 2.21 2.70 1.20 3.04 2.93 3.39 1.79 0.58 2.29 1.83

Minimum 1.16 0.00 0.42 0.64 0.09 1.14 0.38 1.65 1.06 0.17 1.04 0.44

Vehicular Emission Reduction Strategy

Vehicular Emission Reduction Strategy

Air Pollution and GHG Control

Vehicular Emissions

Driving Behaviour Using of Vehicle Speed

Fuel Quality

•Lower Emission V ehicle•Fuel Economy Vehicle•I/M•Engine Charateristic

Vehicle Technology

Traffic and Transport Management

Emissions Standard

Law Enforcement

TDM

Mass Public Transport

ERP Parking Management

Eco-drivingEco-riding

Mass Public Transport and NMT

•ULG•Low Sulfur Fuels•Clean & Renewable Fuels•Fuel Economy

Green Freight and

Logistic

Vehicular emission control would be implemented as holistic approach: clean fuel/low sulfur fuel, vehicle technology, traffic management, and enforcement.

Fuel Quality

Fuels Types and Its Market Share

Gasoline - Series RON

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

AM

BO

N

BA

LIK

PA

PA

N

BA

ND

A A

CEH

BA

ND

AR

LA

MP

UN

G

BA

ND

UN

G

BA

NJA

RM

ASI

N

BEK

ASI

BEN

GK

ULU

BO

GO

R

DEN

PA

SAR

DEP

OK

GO

RO

NTA

LO

JAK

AR

TA B

AR

AT

JAK

AR

TA P

USA

T

JAK

AR

TA S

ELA

TAN

JAK

AR

TA T

IMU

R

JAK

AR

TA U

TAR

A

JAM

BI

JAYA

PU

RA

JAYA

PU

RA

KEN

DA

RI

KO

TA B

ATA

M

KU

PA

NG

KU

PA

NG

MA

KA

SSA

R

MA

LAN

G

MA

MU

JU

MA

NA

DO

MA

NO

KW

AR

I

MA

TAR

AM

MED

AN

PA

DA

NG

PA

LAN

GK

A R

AYA

PA

LEM

BA

NG

PA

LU

PA

NG

KA

L P

INA

NG

PEK

AN

BA

RU

PO

NTI

AN

AK

SAM

AR

IND

A

SEM

AR

AN

G

SOR

ON

G

SUR

AB

AYA

SUR

AK

AR

TA

TAN

GER

AN

G

TAN

JUN

G P

INA

NG

YOG

YAK

AR

TA

Chart Title

2005 2006 2007 2008 2010 2011 2012

Gasoline - Series Sulfur

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

AM

BO

N

BA

LIK

PA

PA

N

BA

ND

A A

CEH

BA

ND

AR

LA

MP

UN

G

BA

ND

UN

G

BA

NJA

RM

ASI

N

BEK

ASI

BEN

GK

ULU

BO

GO

R

DEN

PA

SAR

DEP

OK

GO

RO

NTA

LO

JAK

AR

TA B

AR

AT

JAK

AR

TA P

USA

T

JAK

AR

TA S

ELA

TAN

JAK

AR

TA T

IMU

R

JAK

AR

TA U

TAR

A

JAM

BI

JAYA

PU

RA

JAYA

PU

RA

KEN

DA

RI

KO

TA B

ATA

M

KU

PA

NG

KU

PA

NG

MA

KA

SSA

R

MA

LAN

G

MA

MU

JU

MA

NA

DO

MA

NO

KW

AR

I

MA

TAR

AM

MED

AN

PA

DA

NG

PA

LAN

GK

A R

AYA

PA

LEM

BA

NG

PA

LU

PA

NG

KA

L P

INA

NG

PEK

AN

BA

RU

PO

NTI

AN

AK

SAM

AR

IND

A

SEM

AR

AN

G

SOR

ON

G

SUR

AB

AYA

SUR

AK

AR

TA

TAN

GER

AN

G

TAN

JUN

G P

INA

NG

YOG

YAK

AR

TA

2005

2006

2007

2008

2010

2011

2012

Diesel Fuel 48 - Series Cetane Index

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

AM

BO

N

BA

LIK

PA

PA

N

BA

ND

A A

CEH

BA

ND

AR

LA

MP

UN

G

BA

ND

UN

G

BA

NJA

RM

ASI

N

BEK

ASI

BEN

GK

ULU

BO

GO

R

DEN

PA

SAR

DEP

OK

GO

RO

NTA

LO

JAK

AR

TA B

AR

AT

JAK

AR

TA P

USA

T

JAK

AR

TA S

ELA

TAN

JAK

AR

TA T

IMU

R

JAK

AR

TA U

TAR

A

JAM

BI

JAYA

PU

RA

JAYA

PU

RA

KEN

DA

RI

KO

TA B

ATA

M

KU

PA

NG

KU

PA

NG

MA

KA

SSA

R

MA

LAN

G

MA

MU

JU

MA

NA

DO

MA

NO

KW

AR

I

MA

TAR

AM

MED

AN

PA

DA

NG

PA

LAN

GK

A R

AYA

PA

LEM

BA

NG

PA

LU

PA

NG

KA

L P

INA

NG

PEK

AN

BA

RU

PO

NTI

AN

AK

SAM

AR

IND

A

SEM

AR

AN

G

SOR

ON

G

SUR

AB

AYA

SUR

AK

AR

TA

TAN

GER

AN

G

TAN

JUN

G P

INA

NG

YOG

YAK

AR

TA

2005

2006

2007

2008

2010

2011

2012

Standar Nasional

Diesel Fuel 48 - Series Sulfur

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

AM

BO

N

BA

LIK

PA

PA

N

BA

ND

A A

CEH

BA

ND

AR

LA

MP

UN

G

BA

ND

UN

G

BA

NJA

RM

ASI

N

BEK

ASI

BEN

GK

ULU

BO

GO

R

DEN

PA

SAR

DEP

OK

GO

RO

NTA

LO

JAK

AR

TA B

AR

AT

JAK

AR

TA P

USA

T

JAK

AR

TA S

ELA

TAN

JAK

AR

TA T

IMU

R

JAK

AR

TA U

TAR

A

JAM

BI

JAYA

PU

RA

JAYA

PU

RA

KEN

DA

RI

KO

TA B

ATA

M

KU

PA

NG

KU

PA

NG

MA

KA

SSA

R

MA

LAN

G

MA

MU

JU

MA

NA

DO

MA

NO

KW

AR

I

MA

TAR

AM

MED

AN

PA

DA

NG

PA

LAN

GK

A R

AYA

PA

LEM

BA

NG

PA

LU

PA

NG

KA

L P

INA

NG

PEK

AN

BA

RU

PO

NTI

AN

AK

SAM

AR

IND

A

SEM

AR

AN

G

SOR

ON

G

SUR

AB

AYA

SUR

AK

AR

TA

TAN

GER

AN

G

TAN

JUN

G P

INA

NG

YOG

YAK

AR

TA

2005

2006

2007

2008

2010

2011

2012

Standar

Nasional

Euro 4 Standard

Gap Fuel Quality and Vehicle Engine Requirement

9588

3-7

2939

10

1,00

5,91

4,91

2,47

1,47 1,00

200

10

Gap

190

RU5 Euro4

Able to be fulfilled BY the arrangement of

the MOGAS blending conposition 1

Able to be fulfilled BY implementing

Treating Process Unit Technology

Naphtha Hydrotreating Unit which able to

reduce Sulfur content at the Heavy

Naphtha, would be processed further by

Platforming Unit 2

RON

Aromatic

Content

Benzene

Oxygenat

e

Sulphur

1. Cause increasing of excess naphtha 5 MBSD, currently excess Naphtha is exported to RU VI Balongan with total 20 MBSD.

2. Light Naphtha could not be the feed for unit NHT, and share the majority Sulfur on MOGAs blending.

Regular GasolineVS Gasoline Spec for Euro 4 Standard

Gap

Source: Pertamina, processing 2015

91-

Diesel Stripper Product (HCU) & LGO

(CDU V) is comply to Euro 4 Spec

Able to be improved by implementing

Treating Process Unit Technology.

Sulphur

Density at

15 oC

Rec.

95%v

1. Diesel Fuel Product at RU V is a blending among the components such as LGO & HGO (CDU IV & V), LVGO (HVU II & HVU III), and

Diesel Stripper (HCU)

Gap

50

2,000

1950

8338396

345375

30

Euro4

Able to be improved by managing the

operational arrangement and blending

component of Diesel Fuel.

Cetane

Number

48 5 53

Regular Diesel FuelVS Diesel Fuel Spec for Euro 4 Standard

Cost Benefit and Cost EffectiveEmission Standard

Forecasting of Vehicle number 2030

Best method : ARIMA(1,2,1) Best method : ARIMA(1,2,1)

Error measure (RMSE) : 232634.60 Error measure (RMSE) : 176449.44

Best method : ARIMA(2,2,1) Best method : Double Exponential Smoothing

Error measure (RMSE) : 69296.34 Error measure (RMSE) : 787400.81

Total population: 19 million cars and 59 million of motor cycles, 2013

Domestic Vehicle Production and Selling2009 – June 2015

Cost Benefit and Effective2005-2030

Cost Benefit Cost Effective

• Implementing Emission Standard/Euro 4 by 2021 (Option 1) would be gain Total Economic Benefit IDR 1,970 T (health cost, production saving and fuel saving).

• Acceleration on implementing Euro 4 Standard by 2016 (Option 9) would be improve double Total Economic Benefit to be IDR 3,973 T and cut the cost of emissions reduction by 21.30%.

1. Current Vehicle Standard:• Euro 2 Standard for Car and Motor Cycle since 2007• Euro 3 Standard for Motor Cycle (August 2013)• Fuel Economy Standard (2013):

– 1 L for min 20 KM and or CO2 emission max 118 gr/KM => LCGC (Fiscal Incentive: Luxury Tax Exemption)– 1 L for 20 - 28 KM and or CO2 emission max 118 – 85 gr/KM => LCEV (Fiscal Incentive: Under Discussion)

2. Conformity of Production:• Annual evaluation mandatory to the emissions standard

3. Policy Dialog on Roadmap Vehicle Emission Standard – Euro 4:• High level meetings• Workshop Consultative meetings in the range on September – December 2013• Assessment “preparedness of domestic refineries to adopt low sulfur fuel for Euro 4 Standard by 2016

gradually”• Consensus and draft Regulation on Vehicle Emission Standard-Euro 4 Standard (big cities by 2016 and

national-wide 2018).

4. Vehicle Emission Standard – Euro 4 by 2016 Gradually:• Base on current capacity of domestic refinery • Start to supply fuels with appropriate quality to support implementation Euro 4 Standard in the big

cities (October 2016).

5. Signed MOU Pertamina with partners on Dec 2014:• US$ 25 Billions (Sinopec, JX Nippon Oil and Energy, Saudi Aramco)• 1,04 – 1,68 millions BBL/day of fuels for Euro 4 Standard or higher by 2019/2020.

Roadmap Low Emission Vehicle

Conclusion

• Air pollution is still threaten and suffer people especially in the urban areas with high density of traffic, with PM as dominant parameter.

• Fuel quality is still not comply to vehicle standard, especially Sulfur content .

• Need to improve fuel quality with lower Sulfur content, and other appropriate fuel properties to adopt lower emission standard-Euro 4.

• Consensus to implement Euro 4 Standard gradually would be started in big cities by October 2016, and nationally 2018.

• Acceleration program of Vehicle Emission Standard – Euro 4 by 2016 (from 2021/proposal of Ministry of Energy) would be gain double economic benefit (health cost, production saving and fuel saving).

Next Steps

1. Escort the availability of fuels which comply to the Euro 4 Standard of Vehicle (the status of low price of crudes is a opportunity).

2. Implement and enforce vehicle emission standard (Euro 4) refer to the approved timeline.

3. Continue to conduct the conformity of production (COP) as annual evaluation of the vehicle emission standard mandatory, and disclose the result.

4. Start to discuss the possibility Euro 6 Standard by 2021.5. Continue on assisting the new refinery design to be addressed to

produce fuels with spec for Euro 6 Standard by 2019/2020. 6. Continue the public campaign on clean fuel and vehicle.7. Continue to assist with the research, policy dialog, policy draft, as

legal drafting as integrated advocacy process.

Thank YouKPBB

Sarinah Building 12th Floor, Jalan MH Thamrin # 11 Jakarta Indonesia 10350

Phone: +62-21-3190 6807 Fax: +62-21-315 3401

e-mail: kpbb@kpbb.org, www.kpbb.org

Skype: a_safrudin; puput@kpbb.org; 0816897959

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