Upload
others
View
0
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Statisticalbulletin:
UKtrade:January2016ThetotalvalueofUKimportsandexportsofgoodstogetherwithindicesofvolumeandprice,includinganearlymonthlyestimateofthevalueoftradeinservices.
Contact:KatherineKent
Releasedate:11March2016
Nextrelease:8April2016
Tableofcontents1. Mainpoints
2. MainfiguresforJanuary2016
3. UnderstandingandworkingwithUKtradestatistics
4. SummaryoflatestUKtradestatistics
5. Longer-termperspective
6. ValueofUKtradeingoods
7. Tradeingoods–analysisbyarea
8. Tradeingoods–geographicalanalysis
9. Volumeoftotaltradeingoods,excludingoilanderratics
10. Exportandimportpricesfortradeingoods(notseasonallyadjusted)
11. Tradeinoil
12. Tradeinservices
13. WheretofindmoreinformationaboutUKtradestatistics
14. Revisionstotradestatistics
15. Accuracyofthestatistics
16. Otherqualityinformation
17. Recordssheet
18. Backgroundnotes
19. Methodology
MainpointsUKtradeshowsimportandexportactivityandisamaincontributortotheoveralleconomicgrowthoftheUK.Alldataareshownonaseasonallyadjusted,balanceofpaymentsbasis,atcurrentpricesunlessotherwisestated.
TheUK’sdeficitontradeingoodsandserviceswasestimatedtohavebeen£3.5billioninJanuary2016,anarrowingof£0.2billionfromDecember2015.Thenarrowingisattributedtotradeingoodswherethedeficithasnarrowedfrom£10.5billioninDecember2015,to£10.3billioninJanuary2016.
ThenarrowingofthetradeingoodsdeficitbetweenDecember2015andJanuary2016reflectedadecreaseinimportsof£0.2billionto£33.2billionattributedtofallsinunspecifiedgoodsandfuels.However,excludingoilanderraticsthetradeingoodsdeficitwidenedby£0.5billionbetweenDecember2015andJanuary2016.
Inthe3monthstoJanuary2016,theUK’sdeficitontradeingoodsandserviceswasestimatedtohavebeen£11.8billion;awideningof£3.5billionfromthe3monthstoOctober2015.
Betweenthe3monthstoOctober2015andthe3monthstoJanuary2016,thetradeingoodsdeficitwidenedby£1.5billionto£32.3billion.Thiswideningreflectsa£2.3billionfallinexportsofgoods(ofwhich,chemicalsfellby£1.2billion)partiallyoffsetbya£0.8billionfallinimportsofgoods.
Betweenthe3monthstoOctober2015andthe3monthstoJanuary2016,thetradeinservicessurplusnarrowedby£2.0billionto£20.5billion.DownwardsrevisionstoexportsofservicessincetheDecember2015UKtradepublicationhaveresultedinalargerannualtotaltradedeficitof£36.6billionin2015.
1.
MainfiguresforJanuary20162.
Table1:BalanceofUKtradeingoodsandservices,January2015andNovember2015toJanuary2016
£billion
Balanceoftradein
goods Balanceoftradein
services
Totaltrade
balanceEU Non-EU Total
2015 Jan -7.2 -3.9 -11.1 7.9 -3.2
Nov -8.0 -3.5 -11.6 6.9 -4.7
Dec -7.4 -3.0 -10.5 6.8 -3.7
2016 Jan -8.1 -2.2 -10.3 6.8 -3.5
Source:OfficeforNationalStatistics
Figure1:BalanceofUKtrade,January2014toJanuary2016
Source:OfficeforNationalStatistics
UnderstandingandworkingwithUKtradestatisticsShortguidetoUKtradeUKtradeshowstheextentofimportandexportactivityandisanimportantcontributortotheoveralleconomicgrowthoftheUK.Tradeismeasuredthroughbothimportsandexportsofgoodsand/orservices.Dataaresuppliedbyover30sourcesincludingseveraladministrativesources,HerMajesty’sRevenueandCustoms(HMRC)beingthelargest.
Thismonthlyreleasecontainstablesshowingthetotalvalueoftradeingoodstogetherwithindexnumbersofvolumeandprice.Figuresareanalysedbybroadcommoditygroup(valuesandindices)andaccordingtogeographicalarea(valuesonly).Inaddition,theUKtradestatisticalbulletinalsoincludesearlymonthlyestimatesofthevalueoftradeinservices.
3.
Thisbulletinfocusesontradeingoodsduetothecoverageandcomprehensivenessoftheadministrativedatasourcesavailableforgoodsasitiseasiertoquantifyandmeasure.Tradeinservicesismoredifficulttomeasure,andsourcedataisprovidedmainlyonaquarterlyorannualbasisprincipallyfromITIS(InternationalTradeinServicessurvey).Monthlyestimatesarederivedusingthisquarterlydata;thereforethedataarelessrobustonamonthlybasiscomparedwithgoods.
Asmoreinformationbecomesavailableontradeinservicesthisbulletinwillfocusonthevalues,volumesandgeographicbreakdownona3monthlycycledescribedbelow:
Month Tradeinservicesdetail
March,June,
October,December
Focusontheestimatedquarterlychangeinexportsand
importsofservicesbythemaintypesofservice
January,April,July,
OctoberFocusontradeinservicesinvolumeterms
February,May,
October,November
FocusontradeinserviceswithEUandselectednon-EU
countries
OurwebsiteTheUKtradeguidanceandmethodologywebpagescannowbefoundonourwebsite.ThesehavebeendevelopedtoprovidedetailedinformationaboutthemethodsusedtoproduceUKtradestatistics.Anyrecentuserrequestedtradedataareincludedonourwebsite.
UnderstandingUKtradeWemakeeveryefforttoprovideinformativecommentaryonthedatainthisrelease.Wherepossible,thecommentarydrawsonevidencefromothersourcesofinformationtohelpexplainpossiblereasonsbehindtheobservedchanges.However,insomeinstancesitcanprovedifficulttodrawoutdetailedreasonsformovements;consequently,itisnotpossibleforalldatamovementstobefullyexplained.
Tradestatisticsforanyonemonthcanbeerratic.Forthatreason,itisrecommendedtocomparethelatest3monthsagainstthepreceding3monthsandthesame3monthsofthepreviousyear.
Whenexaminingthetradeingoodsdata,oiland“erratics”,whicharehighvalue,lowvolumeproducts,areremovedfromsomeanalysisastheyareextremelyinfluentialontradeingoodsasawhole.Thereforewepublishdatainclusiveandexclusiveofthesecategories.Wealsoprovideaseparateanalysisofoilbecauseitissubjecttoerraticpricefluctuationsandthereforevolumedataisprovidedinmetrictonnesaswellasvalue(£million).
Strengthsandweaknessesofthedata
Strengths
Qualityoftradeingoodsdata
Thequalityofthesourcedatafortradeingoodsishighintermsofthetimeliness,comprehensivenessandcoverageandthislevelofqualitycompareswellinternationally.Thedataareusedacrossgovernment,businessandacademiaandfeedintoanumberofotheroutputsandpublications;includingGDPandbalanceofpayments.TheBankofEnglandusethetotalfigurestomakepolicydecisions,whereasgovernmentdepartmentssuchastheForeignandCommonwealthOfficeareinterestedintheindividualcountrydetail.
Wehavefrequentcommunicationwithoursupplierstodiscussquality,includingregularmeetings,telephoneconversationsandemailcorrespondence.Servicelevelagreementsareinplacetodefinethelevelofqualityexpectedinthedatareceivedandthesearereviewedannually.Datasuppliershavetheirowninternalqualityassuranceprocessestomeetthequalitystandardsoutlinedintheservicelevelagreementsandweworkcloselywiththemtounderstandthese.Suppliersarerequiredtoadviseusofanychangestothecollectionorprocessingofthedatatoensureourexpectationsarestillmet.
Whendataisreceivedbythetradeteamweconductourowninitialqualityassurance.Furtherqualityanalysisisthenconductedatseveralstagesofprocessing;thisisdetailedinaprocessmapandqualityassuranceplan.Ifthereareanyqualityconcernsweworkcloselywiththesuppliertoaddressthese.
Wehaveregulardiscussionswithusersonthequalityofourdataandprovidecomprehensiveexplanationsoftheterms,methodologyandprocessesweuse.Eurostat(http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat)isanimportantcustomerinfluenceandhelpsimprovethequalityofourdatathroughtaskforcemeetingsandbyproducingqualityguidelines(http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/3888793/6182577/KS-TC-14-009-EN-N.pdf/fc46caf3-5c6d-4359-af64-af0a0952e231).
Timelinessofpublications
TheUKtradepublicationisverytimely(generally40daysaftertheperiodtowhichitrefers),helpingtoinformpolicyandtoassessUKeconomicperformance.
Weaknesses
Qualityandtimelinessoftradeinservicesdata
Wheretradeingoodshasonemaindatasupplier,therearealargenumberofsuppliersoftradeinservicesdata.Additionally,anumberarevoluntary,soitcanbedifficulttoestablishandmaintainthesamequalityassuranceprocessesandrelationshipswiththesebusinessesorsuppliers.
Duetothecollectionmethodsandcomplexitiesofquantifyingtradeinservices,dataislesstimelythantradeingoodsestimates.Thedataisprocessedquarterly,somonthlyforecastsaremadetoprovideacompletetradetotal.
Monthlyvolatility
Tradestatisticsforanyonemonthcanbeerratic.Forthatreason,werecommendcomparingthelatest3monthsagainstthepreceding3monthsandthesame3monthsofthepreviousyear,howeverwealsorecognisetheimportancetousersofanearlyestimateoftradethereforewecontinuetoproduceamonthlyestimate.
UKtradeNationalStatisticssuspensionDuetoaseriesoferrorsduring2014,theUKStatisticsAuthoritysuspendedtheNationalStatisticsdesignationofUKtrade(http://www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/reports---correspondence/correspondence/letter-from-sir-andrew-dilnot-to-john-pullinger-141114.pdf)on14November2014.TheAuthority'sreassessmentofUKtrade(http://www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/assessment/assessment/assessment-reports/index.html)againsttheCodeofPracticeforOfficialStatisticshasbeencompleted.WearecommittedtomeetingtherequirementsandregainingNationalStatisticsstatusforUKtradeassoonaspossibleandwillkeepyouinformedofprogress.WeaimtopublishaUKtradedevelopmentplaninthenearfuture;detailingplannedimprovementstotheUKtradestatisticalcompilationprocessandassociatedmethodology.
OneoftherecommendationsofthereassessmentwastoconsultwithusersontheuseofUKtradestatistics.Theresultsofthisuserengagementsurvey(http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/about-ons/get-involved/consultations-and-user-surveys/consultations/uk-trade-survey/feedback-from-consultations-on-ons-uk-trade-outputs.doc)canbefoundonourwebsite.
Toprovidefeedbackonthebulletinpleasecontactusviaemailtrade@ons.gsi.gov.uk
Thetradedevelopmentplan(https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/articles/uktradedevelopmentplan/2016)hasnowbeenlaunchedforconsultation.Weareseekingfeedbackby27May2016,anycommentsorfeedbackshouldbedirectedtotheUKtradeinbox([email protected]).
DefinitionsandexplanationsAglossaryoftermsispublishedintheUKtradeGlossary(http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/method-quality/specific/economy/uk-trade/uk-trade-glossary.pdf)andtheUKBalanceofPayments-ThePinkBook,2015(http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/bop/united-kingdom-balance-of-payments/2015/index.html).
UseofthedataUKtradeisamaineconomicindicatorduetotheimportanceofinternationaltradetotheUKeconomy.Itisalsoaverytimelystatistic,providinganearlyindicatorofwhatishappeningmoregenerallyintheeconomy.
Inaddition,itisamajorcomponentof2othermaineconomicindicators:UKgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)andtheUKbalanceofpayments.ThismeansthatthereisathreefoldpotentialforUKtradestatisticstoinformthegovernment’sviewoftheUKeconomy,aswellastheviewsofothers,suchaseconomists,cityanalysts,academics,themediaandinternationalorganisations.
NotesontablesRounding:Thesumofconstituentitemsintablesdoesnotalwaysagreeexactlywiththetotalsshownduetorounding.
Symbols:..Notapplicable-Nilorlessthanhalfthefinaldigitshown.
SummaryoflatestUKtradestatisticsMonthlyanalysis
4.
ThedeficitontradeingoodsandservicesinJanuary2016was£3.5billioncomparedwithadeficitof£3.7billioninDecember2015.Thetradepositionreflectsexportsminusimports;thenarrowingofthedeficitwasattributedtoadecreaseinimportsbetweenDecember2015andJanuary2016.
BetweenDecember2015andJanuary2016,totalexportswerebroadlyunchangedat£41.4billion,withexportsofgoodsfallingby£11.0millionandexportsofservicesrisingby£42.0million.Totalimportsdecreasedby£0.2billionto£44.8billionoverthesameperiod,primarilyduetoadecreaseof£0.2billioninimportsofgoods.
Thedeficitontradeingoodswas£10.3billioninJanuary2016;narrowingby£0.2billionfromDecember2015.Thisnarrowingreflectedadecreaseinimports(down£0.2billionto£33.2billion).Themostsignificantfallsinimportswereinunspecifiedgoodsandfuels,partiallyoffsetbyrisesinimportsofchemicalsandmachineryandtransportequipment.
Byarea,betweenDecember2015andJanuary2016,exportsofgoodstocountrieswithintheEUwerebroadlyunchanged,increasingby£12.0millionto£10.9billion.ImportsofgoodsfromcountrieswithintheEUroseby£0.7billion;importsofchemicals,particularlymedicinalandpharmaceuticalproducts,increasedby£0.3billion.Theriseinimportsresultedinadeficitof£8.1billionwithEUcountries,thelargestmonthlydeficitonrecord.
ExportsofgoodstocountriesoutsidetheEUwerebroadlyunchangedoverthesameperiod(down£23.0millionfromDecember2015).ImportsfromcountriesoutsidetheEUfellby£0.8billionbetweenDecember2015andJanuary2016;thiswaspredominantlyduetotradeinnon-monetarygold.ThesemovementsresultedinthetradeingoodsdeficitwithcountriesoutsidetheEUnarrowingby£0.8billionto£2.2billion.
3monthlyanalysisBetweenthe3monthstoOctober2015andthe3monthstoJanuary2016,thetotaltradedeficit(goodsandservices)widenedby£3.5billionto£11.8billion.
Thedeficitontradeingoodswidenedby£1.5billion.Exportsofgoodsfellby£2.3billion,to£68.8billionreflectinga£1.2billiondecreaseintheexportofchemicalsanda£0.4billionfallinoilexports,thesedecreaseswerepartiallyoffsetbyanincreaseintheexportofaircraftof£0.5billion.Importsofgoodsfellby£0.8billion,mainlyreflectinga£1.3billiondecreaseinoil.
Betweenthe3monthstoOctober2015andthe3monthstoJanuary2016,theUK’sdeficitontradeingoodswiththeEUwidenedby£1.7billiontoarecord£23.6billion.ExportsofgoodstoEUcountriesfellby£1.3billionduetoexportsoffuels,whichfellby£0.9billion.ImportsfromtheEUincreasedby£0.5billion,mainlyreflectinganincreaseinimportsofchemicals(£0.4billion).
Therewasatradeingoodsdeficitwithnon-EUcountriesof£8.8billioninthe3monthstoJanuary2016,narrowingby£0.2billionfromthe3monthstoOctober2015.ExportsofgoodstocountriesoutsidetheEUfellby£1.0billion,reflectinga£1.1billiondecreaseinchemicals.ImportsofgoodsfromcountriesoutsidetheEUfellby£1.2billion.Thisdecreasewasmainlyduetoa£1.6billiondecreaseinfuels;ofwhich,£1.0billionwasoil.
AnnualanalysisIn2015,theUK’stradedeficitforgoodsandserviceswas£36.6billion,awideningof£2.2billionfrom2014.Thiswideningreflectsafallinexportsof£2.3billion;attributedentirelytoexportsofgoods,whichfellby£8.2billionannually.Exportsofservicespartiallyoffsetthisfallwithanannualincreaseof£5.9billion.Totalimportsfellby£0.1billionin2015.Importsofgoodsfell£6.0billionfromthepreviousyearbutwasalmostentirelyoffsetbya£5.9billionincreaseinimportsofservices.
Longer-termperspectiveInternationalcomparisonsTheperformanceof,andcontributionfrom,exportsandimportsremainanimportantindicatorofeconomicperformanceandthestructureofaneconomy.Growthofinternationaltradeisalsoanimportantindicatorofhowtheglobaleconomyisfunctioningandperforming.WhileUKnettrade(thebalanceofexportsandimports)hasaveraged-2.1%ofgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)between2010and2014;exportsandimportsofgoodsandservicesindividuallyaccountedforaround30%and32%ofGDPrespectively.TheshareoftheUK’snetexports,asapercentageofGDP,isnegativebecausetheUKtendstorunatradedeficit–importstendtoexceedexportsintheUK.
Figure2showsexportandimportsasapercentageofGDP,withG20countriesrankedintermsofthesizeoftheirexportsrelativetoGDP.Itshowswhichcountriesaremoreexport(andimport)intensiveinthestructureoftheireconomicoutput,andthatSouthKorea,SaudiArabiaandGermanyhaveexportsharesthatareabovemanyoftheotherG20economies.TheUKisaroundthemiddleofthegroupintermsoftheratioofexportstoGDP.
5.
Figure2showsthatmorethanhalfoftheG20economiesreportednegativebalancesontradein2014(dots),withTurkeyhavingthelargesttradedeficit,asapercentageofGDP,at-4.4%.However,becauseTurkey’stradedeficitimprovedcomparedwith2013,itmadeapositivecontributiontoGDPgrowthin2014–thesecondhighestcontributionamongsttheG20at1.6percentagepointsafterRussia(1.8percentagepoints).Russia,GermanyandSouthKoreahadthestrongesttradesurpluses(exportsexceedingimports)oftheG20economies,indicatingthateconomicactivityandgrowthintheseeconomiesismoreexport-orientated.
TheUK’stradebalancewasthefourthlowestintheG20shownin2014at-1.9%ofGDP.Althoughstillindeficitin2014,thetradedeficitimprovedby0.2percentagepointswhencomparedwithits2010to2014averageandimprovedby0.1percentagepointsfrom2013.
Figure2:TradeingoodsandservicesforselectedG20economiesasapercentageofGDP(nationalcurrency,currentprices,%)
2014
Source:OrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment
Figure3showsG20countries’tradepositionsincurrentprices,inUSdollars(adjustedusingconstant(purchasingpowerparity)(PPP's).ThisindicatesthatthemainG20tradingeconomiesareChina,theUSAandGermany.TheUK’sexportsareineighthpositionamongsttheselectedG20economiesinthechart,indicatingthatitisanimportantplayeringlobaltradeflowsbutbecauseofthesizeofitseconomyrelativetotheUSA,ChinaandGermanyitwillinherentlybelower.Figure2,whichadjustednettradeforthesizeofeacheconomybycomparingnettradewithGDP,indicatesthattradeisstillanimportantelementwithintheUK’seconomyandthattheUKisanimportanttradingeconomygivenitsrelativesizeinG20economies.
Figure3:TradeingoodsforselectedG20economies(currentprices,USdollars,constantpuchasingpowerparity(PPP))
2014
Source:OrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment
ValueofUKtradeingoodsMonthlycommentary
6.
InJanuary2016,theUK’sdeficitontradeingoodswas£10.3billion,narrowingby£0.2billionfromDecember2015.
Exportswerebroadlyunchangedat£22.9billioninJanuary2016.
Importsdecreasedby£0.2billion(0.5%)to£33.2billioninJanuary2016,from£33.3billioninDecember2015.Indetail:
aircraftfellby£0.2billion(26.8%)to£0.7billion
unspecifiedgoodsfellby£0.8billion(67.9%)to£0.4billion
thesedecreaseswerepartiallyoffsetbyincreasesinchemicals whichroseby£0.3billion(5.8%)to£4.7billionandroadvehicleswhichroseby£0.3billion(6.1%)to£4.4billion
3monthlycommentaryInthe3monthstoJanuary2016,thedeficitontradeingoodswas£32.3billion,wideningby£1.5billionfromthe3monthstoOctober2015.
Exportsdecreasedby£2.3billion(3.2%)to£68.8billioninthe3monthstoJanuary2016,comparedwith£71.1billioninthe3monthstoOctober2015.Indetail:
chemicals fellby£1.2billion(8.7%)to£12.1billion
oilfellby£0.4billion(9.3%)to£4.3billion
thesedecreaseswerepartiallyoffsetbyanincreaseinaircraftwhichroseby£0.5billion(17.8%)to£3.3billion
Importsdecreasedby£0.8billion(0.8%)to£101.1billioninthe3monthstoJanuary2016,comparedwith£101.9billioninthe3monthstoOctober2015.Indetail:
oilfellby£1.3billion(18.4%)to£5.7billion
this decreasewaspartiallyoffsetbyincreasesinunspecifiedgoodswhichroseby£0.9billion(46.5%)to£1.8billionandchemicals whichroseby£0.4billion(3.0%)to£13.5billion
Atthemaincommoditylevel,thedataareshowninTable2.
Table2:ChangeinUKmaincommodityvalue,January2016
£million
Monthlychange
1
3monthlychange2
Exports Imports Exports Imports
Oil(seesectionon"tradeinoil") -103 -60 -436 -1,292
Cars +223 +84 -114 -134
Consumergoodsotherthancars -72 +125 -114 +123
Intermediategoods +81 +256 +28 +7
Capitalgoods +69 +95 -452 -296
Chemicals +179 +253 -1,156 +388
Semi-manufacturedgoodsotherthan
chemicals-24 +50 -30 +6
Source:OfficeforNationalStatistics
Notes:
1MonthlychangeisJanuary2016comparedwithDecember2015.
23monthlychangeisNovember2015toJanuary2016comparedwithAugust
toOctober2015.
Figure4:ValueofUKtradeingoods,January2014toJanuary2016
Source:OfficeforNationalStatistics
Figure5:ValueofUKtradeingoodsexcludingoil,January2014toJanuary2016
Source:OfficeforNationalStatistics
WheretofinddataaboutUKtradeingoodsThevalueoftradeingoodsfiguresareavailableinTable1andcommodityfiguresareavailableinTables8,9and10ofthepublicationtablesUKtradedataset(https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/datasets/publicationtablesuktrade).
Tradeingoods–analysisbyareaInJanuary2016,thedeficitontradeingoodswithEUcountrieswidenedby£0.7billionto£8.1billion.Thedeficitontradeingoodswithnon-EUcountriesnarrowedby£0.8billionto£2.2billion(Figure6).
7.
Figure6:BalanceofUKtradeingoods-EUandnon-EUcountries,January2014toJanuary2016
Source:OfficeforNationalStatistics
Inthe3monthstoJanuary2016,thedeficitontradeingoodswithEUcountrieswidenedby£1.7billionto£23.6billion.Overthesameperiod,thedeficitontradeingoodswithnon-EUcountriesnarrowedby£0.2billionto£8.8billion.
EUanalysisBetweenDecember2015andJanuary2016,exportstotheEUincreasedby£12.0million(0.1%)to£10.9billion.ThiswasattributedtoanincreaseinexportstoGermanyof£0.2billionandFranceof£0.1billion.TheseincreaseswereoffsetbydecreasesinexportstoBelgiumandLuxembourg(combined)andtheIrishRepublicof£0.1billioneach.
BetweenDecember2015andJanuary2016,importsfromtheEUincreasedby£0.7billion(3.7%)to£18.9billion.ThiswasattributedtoincreasesinimportsfromtheNetherlandsof£0.3billionandBelgiumandLuxembourg(combined),Denmark,Italy,Slovakia,SpainandSwedenof£0.1billioneach.TheseincreaseswereoffsetbydecreasesinimportsfromGermanyandtheIrishRepublicof£0.1billioneach.
Betweenthe3monthstoOctober2015andthe3monthstoJanuary2016,exportstotheEUdecreasedby£1.3billion(3.7%)to£32.7billion.ThiswasattributedtodecreasesinexportstoFranceof£0.4billion,totheIrishRepublicof£0.3billion,toBelgiumandLuxembourg(combined)andtheNetherlandsof£0.2billioneach.
Betweenthe3monthstoOctober2015andthe3monthstoJanuary2016,importsfromtheEUincreasedby£0.5billion(0.8%)to£56.2billion.ThiswasattributedtoincreasesinimportsfromFranceof£0.4billion,theNetherlandsof£0.3billionandfromBelgiumandLuxembourg(combined)of£0.2billion.TheseincreaseswereoffsetbydecreasesinimportsfromGermanyof£0.7billionandSwedenof£0.2billion.
Atthecommoditylevel,thedataareshowninTable3.
Table3:ChangeinUKmaincommodityvalue(EU),January2016
£million
Monthlychange
1
3monthlychange2
ExportsImports Exports Imports
Oil(seesectionon"tradeinoil") -16 -5 -580 -258
Cars -14 -40 -184 -284
Consumergoodsotherthancars -47 +91 +120 +381
Intermediategoods +22 +186 +88 +194
Capitalgoods -9 +170 -260 -37
Chemicals +123 +348 -28 +402
Semi-manufacturedgoodsotherthan
chemicals-11 -5 -104 +106
Source:OfficeforNationalStatistics
Notes:
1MonthlychangeisJanuary2016comparedwithDecember2015.
23monthlychangeisNovember2015toJanuary2016comparedwithAugust
toOctober2015.
Non-EUanalysisBetweenDecember2015andJanuary2016,exportstonon-EUcountriesdecreasedby£23.0million(0.2%)to£12.0billion.ThiswasattributedtodecreasesinexportstoSwitzerlandof£0.4billion,toSaudiArabiaandSouthKoreaof£0.2billioneachandtoRussia,MalaysiaandNorwayof£0.1billioneach.ThesedecreaseswereoffsetbyanincreaseinexportstotheUSAof£0.6billion.
BetweenDecember2015andJanuary2016,importsfromnon-EUcountriesdecreasedby£0.8billion(5.6%)to£14.2billion.ThiswasattributedtodecreasesinimportsfromtheUSAof£0.5billion,fromCanadaof£0.3billionandfromAlgeria,Australia,SaudiArabiaandTurkeyof£0.1billioneach.
Inthe3monthstoOctober2015andthe3monthstoJanuary2016,exportstonon-EUcountriesdecreasedby£1.0billion(2.7%)to£36.1billion.ThiswasattributedtodecreasesinexportstotheUSAof£1.5billionandtheUnitedArabEmiratesof£0.2billion.ThesedecreaseswereoffsetbyincreasesinexportstoChinaof£0.6billionandtoSwitzerlandof£0.4billion.
Betweenthe3monthstoOctober2015andthe3monthstoJanuary2016,importsfromnon-EUcountriesdecreasedby£1.2billion(2.7%)to£44.9billion.ThiswasattributedtodecreasesinimportsfromChinaof£0.7billion,fromIndiaof£0.3billionandfromNigeria,SaudiArabia,SwitzerlandandtheUnitedArabEmiratesof£0.2billioneach.ThesedecreaseswereoffsetbyanincreaseinimportsfromCanadaof£1.0billion.
Atthecommoditylevel,thedataareshowninTable4.
Table4:ChangeinUKmaincommodityvalue(non-EU),January2016
£million
Monthlychange
1
3monthlychange2
ExportsImports Exports Imports
Oil(seesectionon'tradeinoil') -87 -55 +144 -1,034
Cars +237 +124 +70 +150
Consumergoodsotherthancars -25 +34 -234 -258
Intermediategoods +59 +70 -60 -187
Capitalgoods +78 -75 -192 -259
Chemicals +56 -95 -1,128 -14
Semi-manufacturedgoodsotherthan
chemicals-13 +55 +74 -100
Source:OfficeforNationalStatistics
Notes:
1MonthlychangeisJanuary2016comparedwithDecember2015.
23monthlychangeisNovember2015toJanuary2016comparedwithAugust
toOctober2015.
WheretofinddataaboutUKtradeingoods–analysisbyareaTradeingoodsbyareafiguresareavailableinTable2andvalueoftradeingoodswithselectedEUandnon-EUtradingpartnerfiguresareavailableinTables11and12ofthepublicationtablesUKtradedataset(https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/datasets/publicationtablesuktrade).
Tradeingoods–geographicalanalysisMonthlyanalysisTheUSAremainstheUK’stopexportpartnerwithexportsof£3.9billioninJanuary2016,increasingby£0.6billionwhencomparedwithDecember2015.
GermanyremainstheUK’stopimportpartnerwithimportsof£4.8billion,decreasingby£0.1billionwhencomparedwithDecember2015.Anecdotalevidencesuggeststhisdecreasewasduetoafallintheimportofaircraft.
TherewererecordhighimportsfromtheCzechRepublic,RomaniaandSlovakia.ImportsfromtheCzechRepublicincreasedby9.2%to£0.5billion,fromRomaniaby3.5%to£0.1billionandfromSlovakiaby46.9%to£0.2billion.
Table5:ChangeinUKmonthlytradewithsignificantpartnercountries,January2016comparedwithDecember2015
8.
Exports(£million) Imports(£
million)
January
2016
1
month
January
2016
1
month
value change value change
1USA 3,914 +620 1Germany 4,807 -101
2Germany 2,533 +168 2 China 2,965 -47
3 France 1,439 +76 3Netherlands 2,846 +250
4Netherlands 1,423 -1 4 USA 2,493 -489
5 IrishRepublic 1,292 -115 5 France 2,022 +18
6 China 1,073 +6 6Belgiumand
Luxembourg1,942 +100
7Belgiumand
Luxembourg932 -64 7 Italy 1,369 +72
8 Spain 708 -46 8 Spain 1,239 +105
9 Italy 705 +18 9Norway 1,114 +138
10 Switzerland 437 -374 10 IrishRepublic 1,034 -124
Source:OfficeforNationalStatistics
Notes:
1Significanttradingpartnersdefinedastop10exportmarketsandimport
sources2015(seeattachedtable14).
2USAincludesPuertoRico.
Figure7:SignificantUKpartnercountries,1monthbalances,January2016
Source:OfficeforNationalStatistics
3monthlyanalysisInthe3monthstoJanuary2016,theUSAremainedtheUK’stopexportpartnerwithexportsof£10.9billion,decreasingby£1.5billionwhencomparedwiththe3monthstoOctober2015.Anecdotalevidencesuggeststhisisduetoafallintheexportoffuels.
Inthe3monthstoJanuary2016,GermanyremainedtheUK’stopimportpartnerwithimportsof£14.9billion,decreasingby£0.7billionwhencomparedwiththe3monthstoOctober2015.Anecdotalevidencesuggeststhisisduetoafallintheimportofchemicals.
Inthe3monthstoJanuary2016therewererecordhighimportsfromBelgiumandLuxembourg(combined)andtheCzechRepublic.ImportsfromBelgiumandLuxembourg(combined)increasedby3.8%to£5.6billionandfromtheCzechRepublicby4.2%to£1.3billion.
Table6:ChangeinUK3monthlytradewithsignificantpartnercountries1,3monthlychangeinNovember2015toJanuary2016comparedwithAugusttoOctober2015.
Exports(£million) Imports(£million)
November2015
toJanuary2016
3
month
change
November
2015to
January2016
3
month
change
1 USA 10,938 -1521 1Germany 14,870 -695
2 Germany 7,531 +8 2 China 8,964 -700
3 Netherlands 4,191 -224 3 USA 8,553 -92
4 France 4,161 -400 4Netherlands 7,976 +324
5Irish
Republic4,072 -275 5 France 6,342 +443
6 China 3,117 +588 6Belgiumand
Luxembourg5,630 +207
7Belgiumand
Luxembourg2,946 -171 7 Italy 3,988 +115
8 Spain 2,180 -72 8 Spain 3,627 -87
9 Italy 2,084 -102 9Irish
Republic3,290 +13
10 Switzerland 1,903 +369 10Norway 3,188 -89
Source:OfficeforNationalStatistics
1Significanttradingpartnersdefinedastop10exportmarketsandimport
sources2015(seeattachedTable14).
2USAincludesPuertoRico.
Figure8:SignificantUKpartnercountries,3monthlybalances,November2015toJanuary2016
Source:OfficeforNationalStatistics
WheretofinddataaboutUKtradeingoods–geographicalanalysisTradeingoodsbyareafiguresareavailableinTable2andvalueoftradeingoodswithselectedEUandnon-EUtradingpartnerfiguresareavailableinTables11and12ofthepublicationtablesUKtradedataset(https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/datasets/publicationtablesuktrade).
Volumeoftotaltradeingoods,excludingoilanderraticsBetweenDecember2015andJanuary2016,thevolumeofexportsincreasedby0.7%:
carsroseby7.9%
9.
basicmaterials roseby6.3%
chemicals roseby4.1%
food,beveragesandtobaccoroseby3.7%
BetweenDecember2015andJanuary2016,thevolumeofimportsincreasedby3.2%:
food,beveragesandtobaccoroseby20.8%
basicmaterials roseby6.9%
intermediategoodsroseby4.9%
Inthe3monthstoJanuary2016,thevolumeofexportsdecreasedby4.2%whencomparedwiththe3monthstoOctober2015:
chemicals fellby9.8%
capitalgoodsfellby5.0%
Inthe3monthstoJanuary2016,thevolumeofimportsdecreasedby0.5%whencomparedwiththe3monthstoOctober2015:
capitalgoodsfellby2.6%
Atthecommoditylevel,thedataareshowninTable7.
Table7:ChangeinUKmaincommodityvolume,January2016
Monthlychange1 3monthlychange2
Exports
percentage
change
Imports
percentage
change
Exports
percentage
change
Imports
percentage
change
Food,beverages
andtobacco+3.7 +20.8 +2.5 +5.0
Basicmaterials +6.3 +6.9 -2.4 -0.8
Semi-manufactured
goods;ofwhich+2.1 +1.9 -6.7 +1.9
Chemicals +4.1 +2.8 -9.8 +2.8
Finished
manufactured
goods;ofwhich
-1.8 +0.9 -0.6 +0.3
Cars +7.9 +1.9 -2.6 +1.4
Consumergoods
otherthancars-8.0 +0.9 -1.1 +0.9
Intermediate
goods+2.0 +4.9 -0.3 -0.6
Capitalgoods +2.1 +0.9 -5.0 -2.6
Source:OfficeforNationalStatistics
Notes:
1MonthlychangeisJanuary2016comparedwithDecember2015.
23monthlychangeisNovember2015toJanuary2016comparedwithAugust
toOctober2015.
Wheretofinddataaboutvolumeoftotaltradeingoods,excludingoilanderratics
Thevolumeoftotaltradeingoods,excludingoilanderraticsfiguresareavailableinTable3ofthepublicationtablesUKtradedataset(https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/datasets/publicationtablesuktrade).
Exportandimportpricesfortradeingoods(notseasonallyadjusted)InJanuary2016,comparedwithDecember2015,exportpricesincreasedby0.6%andimportpricesincreasedby0.2%.Excludingtheoilpriceeffect,exportpricesincreasedby1.5%andimportpricesincreasedby1.3%.
Inthe3monthstoJanuary2016,whencomparedwiththe3monthstoOctober2015,exportpricesincreasedby0.1%andimportpricesdecreasedby1.3%.Excludingtheoilpriceeffect,exportpricesincreasedby1.2%andimportpricesremainedunchanged.
Figure9:UKtradeingoodsexportandimportprices,January2014toJanuary2016
Source:OfficeforNationalStatistics
10.
Wheretofinddataaboutexportandimportpricesfortradeingoods(notseasonallyadjusted)Theexportandimportpricesfortradeingoods(notseasonallyadjusted)figuresareavailableinTable3ofthepublicationtablesUKtradedataset(https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/datasets/publicationtablesuktrade).
TradeinoilInJanuary2016,thebalanceoftradeinoilwasindeficitby£0.5billion,adecreaseof£43.0millionwhencomparedwithDecember2015.Oilexportsdecreasedby£0.1billionto£1.3billionandoilimportsdecreasedby£0.1billionto£1.8billion.
Inthe3monthstoJanuary2016,thebalanceontradeinoilwasindeficitby£1.5billion,narrowingby£0.9billionwhencomparedwiththe3monthstoOctober2015.Oilexportsdecreasedby£0.4billionto£4.3billionandoilimportsdecreasedby£1.3billionto£5.7billion.
Figure10:BalanceofUKtradeinoil,January2014toJanuary2016
Source:OfficeforNationalStatistics
WheretofinddataabouttradeinoilThetradeinoilfiguresareavailableinTables1and7ofthepublicationtablesUKtradedataset(https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/datasets/publicationtablesuktrade).
11.
TradeinservicesInJanuary2016,theUK’sestimatedsurplusontradeinserviceswas£6.8billion.
ExportsinJanuary2016wereestimatedtohavebeen£18.5billionandimports£11.7billion.
Figure11:ValueofUKtradeinservices,January2014toJanuary2016
Source:OfficeforNationalStatistics
Informationontradeinservicesismainlyobtainedfromquarterlysurveys,insomecasesunderpinnedbylargerannualsurveys.Thismeansthatthedataforthelatestmonthsareuncertain.
InQuarter4(OctobertoDecember)2015,thesurplusontradeinserviceswas£20.9billion;financialservicesandotherbusinessserviceswerethelargestcontributorswithasurplusof£9.9billionand£8.1billionrespectively.
For2015,thesurplusontradeinserviceswas£88.7billion;financialservicesandotherbusinessserviceswerethelargestcontributorswithasurplusof£40.0billionand£29.5billionrespectively.
12.
Analysisbyvolume(chainedvolumemeasureCVM)BetweenQuarter3(JulytoSeptember)2015andQuarter4(OctobertoDecember)2015,exportsofservicesdecreasedby£0.5billionto£54.5billion.Themaincontributorstothedecreaseweretravelservices(£0.3billion)andotherbusinessservices(£0.3billion).Forthesameperiod,theimportofservicesincreasedby£0.3billionto£34.8billion,themaincontributorstothisincreaseweretravelservices(£0.4billion)andtransportservices(£0.3billion).Theseincreaseswerepartiallyoffsetbyadecreaseinotherbusinessservicesof£0.5billion.
BetweenQuarter4(OctobertoDecember)2014andQuarter4(OctobertoDecember)2015,exportsofservicesincreasedby£1.2billion.Withinexports,thelargestincreasewasseeninotherbusinessservicesof£2.3billion,thiswaspartiallyoffsetbydecreasesintravelservicesandfinancialservicesof£0.8billionand£0.7billionrespectively.Forthesameperiod,importsincreasedby£4.2billion,reflectingincreasesintravelservices,transportservicesandfinancialservicesof£2.3billion,£1.1billionand£0.8billionrespectively.
ExportsofservicesbyCVMin2015was£216.9billion,withotherbusinessservicesandfinancialservicesbeingthelargestcontributorswith£64.4billionand£45.5billionrespectively.ImportsofservicesbyCVMin2015was£168.0billion,withtravelservicesandotherbusinessservicesbeingthelargestcontributorswith£53.2billionand£42.2billionrespectively.
Figure12:UKtradeinservicesexports,chainedvolumemeasure,Quarter4(OctobertoDecember)2014toQuarter4(OctobertoDecember)2015
Source:OfficeforNationalStatistics
Figure13:UKtradeinservicesimports,chainedvolumemeasure,Quarter4(OctobertoDecember)2014toQuarter4(OctobertoDecember)2015
Source:OfficeforNationalStatistics
Afurtherbreakdownofnon-EUcountriescanfoundintheQuarter3(JulytoSeptember)2015UnitedKingdomEconomicAccounts(http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa1-rd/united-kingdom-economic-accounts/q3-2015/index.html).
RevisionsInthisrelease,periodsfromJanuary2015areopenforrevision.
BetweentheDecember2015andJanuary2016UKtradepublication,the2015surplusfortradeinserviceshasbeenreviseddownby£1.6billion,whichreflectedadownwardrevisionof£1.2billioninexportsandanupwardrevisionof£0.4billioninimports.Themaincontributorsforthedownwardrevisioninexportswereinsuranceservices(£1.2billion),financialservices(£1.1billion)andtravelservices(£0.8billion).Thesewereoffsetbyanupwardrevisionintheexportofotherbusinessservicesof£2billion.Themaincontributorsfortheupwardrevisioninimportsweretransportservices(£4.1billion)andotherbusinessservices(£1.8billion),partiallyoffsetbydownwardrevisionsinfinancialservices(£3.3billion),insuranceservices(£1.2billion),constructionservices(£0.6billion)andgovernmentservices(£0.4billion).
BetweentheDecember2015andJanuary2016UKtradepublication,theQuarter4(OctobertoDecember)2015surplusfortradeinserviceshasbeenreviseddownby£1.5billion,whichreflectsadownwardrevisionof£1.0billioninexportsandanupwardrevisionof£0.6billioninimports.Themaincontributorstothedownwardrevisioninexportsweretravelservices(£0.6billion),telecommunication,computerandinformationservices(£0.4billion),financialservices(£0.4billion)andinsuranceservices(£0.2billion),offsetbyupwardrevisionsintheexportofotherbusinessservices(£1.0billion).Themaincontributorstotheupwardrevisioninimportswastransportservices(£1.3billion)andotherbusinessservices(£0.4billion),offsetbydownwardrevisionsintheimportoffinancialservices(£1billion).
Pleasenotethatthemajorityofrevisionstoservicesdatawithinthispublicationareduetoforecastswhichhavebeenreplacedbyactualdataandpartialestimates;improvedsupplierresponseratesforearlierquartershavealsocontributedtothechanges.
WheretofinddataabouttradeinservicesThetradeinservicesfiguresareavailableinTable1CONT.ofthepublicationtablesUKtradedataset(https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/datasets/publicationtablesuktrade).
WheretofindmoreinformationaboutUKtradestatisticsOtherregularlypublishedUKtradereleasesSupplementaryquarterlydataanalysedbyproductaccordingtotheUKtradeingoodsbyclassificationofproductbyactivity(CPA2008)arealsoavailable.
13.
Thelatestreleaseon18DecembercoveredtheperiodQuarter3(JulytoSeptember)2015(http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/uktrade/uk-trade-in-goods-analysed-in-terms-of-industry/q3-2015/index.html)andthedataisconsistentwithUKtradeNovember2015(http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/uktrade/uk-trade/november-2015/stb-uk-trade--november-2015.html)andcontainedrevisionsbackto1998followingmethodologicalchangesacrossNationalAccounts.Followinganinternalreviewofourpublicationsandawidersurveyofusers(http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/about-ons/get-involved/consultations-and-user-surveys/consultations/uk-trade-survey/feedback-from-consultations-on-ons-uk-trade-outputs.doc)thereisnolongerastatisticalbulletinassociatedwiththerelease.Insteadwehaveprovidedalonger-termcommentaryalongsidethedatatables.
Thecompleterunofdatainthetablesofthisstatisticalbulletinarealsoavailabletoviewanddownloadinotherelectronicformatsfreeofchargeusingourtimeseriesdatawebsiteservice.Userscandownloadthecompletestatisticalbulletininachoiceofzippedformats,orviewanddownloadtheirownselectionsofindividualseries.
HMRevenueandCustoms(HMRC)publishOverseasTradeStatistics(https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/Pages/MonthlyTimetableofReleases.aspx)onthesamedayaswereleasetheUKtradedataeachmonth.TheseaggregateestimateswilldifferslightlyfromthosethatarepublishedbyusaspartoftheBalanceofPayments(http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/bop/united-kingdom-balance-of-payments/2014/index.html)(BoP),asthe2setsofdataarecompiledtodifferentsetsofrules.TheBoPpublicationshowsahighlevelpictureofUKtradeingoods,whereastheOTSpublicationshowsadetailedpictureoftheUK’stradeingoodsbycommodityandpartnercountry.
RecentlypublishedreportsonUKtradetopicsTheEconomicReview(http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/economic-review/february-2016/art-economic-review-february-2016.html#tab-Trade)published02March2016includesanalysisoftradewithEUandnon-EUcountries.
On29January2016annualInternationaltradeinServicessurveyresults(http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/itis/international-trade-in-services/2014/index.html)for2014werepublished.Thisreleasegivesinformationontheindustryofthebusinessesengagedintradeinservices.
HistoricarticlespublishedonUKtradeOn30October2015wepublishedtheannualBalanceofPaymentsPinkBook2015(http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/bop/united-kingdom-balance-of-payments/2015/index.html)whichaswellascontainingmoredetailedinformationontradealsoprovidedanoverviewofthetradedeficitinrelationtothecurrentaccountdeficit.
InourEconomicReview(http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/economic-review/september-2015/art---economic-review-sept-2015.html)publishedon3October2015thereisfurthercommentaryonUKexportperformance(http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/economic-review/september-2015/art---economic-review-sept-2015.html#tab-Exports-).
On1October2015,wepublishedanarticleontheeconomicperformanceoftheUK’smotorvehiclemanufacturingindustry(http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/abs/annual-business-survey/car-production/sty-car.html).
On26June2015,wepublishedashortstoryontheimportanceofEUtoUKtradeandinvestment(http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/international-transactions/outward-foreign-affiliates-statistics/how-important-is-the-european-union-to-uk-trade-and-investment-/index.html).
On9June2015,wepublishedashortstoryontheimportanceofChinatotheUKeconomy(http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/international-transactions/outward-foreign-affiliates-statistics/how-important-is-china-to-the-uk-economy-/sty-china.html),includingthevalueoftheUKtradewithChina.
On6February2015,wepublishedanarticleontheRotterdameffect(http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/uktrade/uk-trade/december-2014/sty-trade-rotterdam-effect-.html)anditspotentialimpactontheUKtradeingoodsestimates.
On23January2015,wepublishedashortstoryexploringthereasonsbehindtheUKtradedeficit(http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/uktrade/uk-trade/november-2014/sty-record-trade-surplus-in-services-partly-offsets-record-trade-deficit-on-goods.html).
Publisheduserrequesteddataandanalysis
AdditionalstatisticaldataandanalysesforUKtradestatisticsthathavenotbeenincludedinourstandardpublicationsareavailableundertheEconomysectionofthepublisheduserrequesteddataandanalysispagesonourwebsite.
Methodologicalarticles
DetailedmethodologicalnotesarepublishedintheUKBalanceofPayments-ThePinkBook,2015(http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/bop/united-kingdom-balance-of-payments/2015/index.html).
RevisionstotradestatisticsTradeingoodsrevisionsInthisrelease,periodsfromJanuary2015areopenforrevision.
TherevisionstotradeingoodsfromJanuary2015reflectreviseddatafromHerMajesty’sRevenueandCustomsandotherdatasuppliers,revisedestimatesoftradingassociatedwithVATMTICfraud,latersurveydataontradepricesandare-assessmentofseasonalfactors.
RevisionstononmonetarygoldDuetothetimingofourgoldsurveydata,thenonmonetarygoldestimateinthelatestUKTradedatasetisforecast.Thiswillberevisedwhenmoreaccuratedatabecomesavailable.
TradeinservicesrevisionsInthisrelease,periodsfromJanuary2015areopenforrevision.
TheNationalaccountsrevisionpolicy(http://www.ons.gov.uk/methodology/methodologytopicsandstatisticalconcepts/revisions/revisionspoliciesforeconomicstatistics)canbefoundonourwebsite
14.
AccuracyofthestatisticsAccuracy:Tradeingoodsfiguresforthemostrecentmonthsareprovisionalandsubjecttorevisioninthelightof:
latetraderdata,revis ionstotradepricesandrevisedestimatesoftradingassociatedwithVATMTICfraud
revis ionstoseasonaladjustmentfactorswhicharere-estimatedeverymonth
Tradeinservicesestimateshavebeenderivedfromanumberofmonthlyandquarterlysources.Forcomponentswherenomonthlydataareavailable,estimateshavebeenderivedonthebasisofrecenttrends.Theresultsshouldbeusedwithappropriatecaution,astheyarelikelytobelessreliablethanthosefortradeingoods.
15.
Reliability:Revisionstodataprovideoneindicationofitsreliability.Table8showssummaryinformationonthesizeanddirectionoftherevisionsthathavebeenmadetothedatacoveringa5-yearperiod.Astatisticaltesthasbeenappliedtotheaveragerevisiontofindoutifitisstatisticallysignificantlydifferentfromzero.Anasterisk(*)showsthatthetestissignificant.
Table8:Revisionsanalysis,UKtrade,January2016
£million
Revisionsbetweenfirstpublicationandestimates12
monthslater
Valuein
latest
period
Averageoverthe
last5years(mean
revision)
Averageoverthelast5years
withoutregardtosign(average
absoluterevision)
Totaltrade
exports
(IKBH)
41,386 1018* 1030*
Totaltrade
imports
(IKBI)
44,845 873* 874*
Totaltrade
balance
(IKBJ)
-3,459 137 761
Source:OfficeforNationalStatistics
OtherqualityinformationUKtradere-assessment
16.
TheUKStatisticsAuthoritysuspendedtheNationalStatisticsdesignationofUKtrade(http://www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/reports---correspondence/correspondence/letter-from-sir-andrew-dilnot-to-john-pullinger-141114.pdf)on14November2014.TheAuthority'sre-assessmentofUKtrade(http://www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/assessment/assessment/assessment-reports/index.html)againsttheCodeofPracticeforOfficialStatisticshasbeencompleted.
Oneoftherecommendationsofthere-assessmentwastoconsultwithusersontheuseofUKtradestatistics.Theresultsofthisuserengagementsurvey(http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/about-ons/get-involved/consultations-and-user-surveys/consultations/uk-trade-survey/feedback-from-consultations-on-ons-uk-trade-outputs.doc)canbefoundonourwebsite.
HMRCmethodologychangeforgasandrevisionstopastyearsHMRCtradestatisticsareamendingthemechanismforthedatasourceusedinthecompilationofNaturalGastradedwithnon-EUpartners(http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/uktrade/uk-trade/may-2015/information-note--hmrc-methodology-changes-and-revisions-to-gas.html).Wewillimplementtheserevisionsinaphasedapproach.Moredetailscanbefoundonourwebsite.
EMUenlargementAsof1January2015,LithuaniajoinedtheEuropeanMonetaryUnion(EMU).ThereforetheEMUtotalsinthisUKtradereleaseincludeLithuania.
EMUcoverageThecoverageofEMUcountrieswasextendedtocoverCyprusandMaltafromOctober2008,SlovakiafromJanuary2009,EstoniafromJanuary2011,LatviafromJanuary2014andLithuaniafromJanuary2015.SomeEUandnon-EUbreakdownsofcommoditydataforchainedvolumemeasureswhichareavailableonrequestmaybelessreliablethanthecurrentpricedata.PleaseconsultKatherineKenton+44(0)1633455829ifyouareconsideringusingthem.
DatahavebeencombinedfortheUnitedStatesandPuertoRicoandforDubai,AbuDhabiandSharjah(theUnitedArabEmirates)fromJanuary2009onwards.EstimatesareseparatelyavailablefortheUnitedStatesandDubaiuptotheendof2008onrequest.
Erratics
Non-monetarygoldisnowincludedintheerraticsseries;alongwithships,aircraft,preciousstonesandsilver.IncompliancewiththeBPM6changes,non-monetarygoldwhichisheldasastoreofwealthisnowrecordedwithintradeingoods.
DeflationItiscommonforthevalueofagroupoffinancialtransactionstobemeasuredinseveraltimeperiods.Thevaluesmeasuredwillincludeboththechangeinthevolumesoldandtheeffectofthechangeofpricesoverthatyear.Deflationistheprocesswherebytheeffectofpricechangeisremovedfromasetofvalues.
Chain-linkedindices(chainedvolumemeasures),whichareindexedtoformthevolumeseriesinthisbulletin,differfromfixedbaseindicesinthatthegrowthfromoneyeartothenextisestimatedbyweightingthecomponentsusingthecontributiontovalueoftradeintheimmediatelyprecedingyear(effectivelyre-basingeveryyear).Thisseriesofannuallyre-weightedannualgrowthsisthen“chain-linked”toproduceacontinuousseries.
Theimpliedpricedeflators,derivedbycomparingcurrentpricedatatochainedvolumemeasuresdataarenotthesameasthepriceindicespublishedinthisstatisticalbulletin,becausetheformerarecurrentweightedwhilethelatterarebase(2012)weighted.
ChangesintradeassociatedwithVATMTICfraudmeanthatcomparisonsofvolumeandprices(bothincludingandexcludingtradeassociatedwithVATMTICfraud)shouldbetreatedwithagreatdealofcaution.
InterpretingthedataInmonthswherequarterlyand3-monthlyendingpercentagechangesforindexdatacoincide,theremaybesmalldifferencesbetweenthedataformethodologicalreasons.Quarterlydataaretheindexedformofanunderlyingconstantprice(forvolumeindices)orconsistentquantity(forpriceindices)series.3-monthendingdataaretheaverageoftheindexdatainthatperiod.
SeasonaladjustmentSeasonaladjustmentaimstoremoveeffectsassociatedwiththetimeoftheyearorthearrangementofthecalendarsothatmovementswithinatimeseriesmaybemoreeasilyinterpreted.
RecordssheetTheUKtraderecordinformationforJanuary2016(https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/datasets/uktraderecordssheet)canbeaccessedonourwebsite.
17.
Backgroundnotes1. Thismonth’srelease
What'snew-tradedevelopmentplan
Thetradedevelopmentplan(https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/articles/uktradedevelopmentplan/2016)hasnowbeenlaunchedforconsultation.Weareseekingfeedbackby27May2016,anycommentsorfeedbackshouldbedirectedtotheUKtradeinbox([email protected]).
2. SpecialeventsAnarticleoutliningtheONSpolicyonspecialevents(http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/method-quality/general-methodology/special-events-group/index.html)isavailableonourwebsite.
3. CodeofPracticeforOfficialStatisticsNationalStatisticsareproducedtohighprofessionalstandardssetoutintheCodeofPracticeforOfficialStatistics(http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/the-national-statistics-standard/code-of-practice/index.html).Theyundergoregularqualityassurancereviewstoensurethattheymeetcustomerneeds.Theyareproducedfreefromanypoliticalinterference.
4. SummaryqualityreportAqualityandmethodologyinformationreportforthisstatisticalbulletinandassociateddatacanbefoundonourwebsite.
5. PublicationpolicyAlistoftheorganisationsgivenpre-publicationaccesstothecontentsofthisbulletincanbefoundonourwebsite.
6. Detailsofthepolicygoverningthereleaseofnewdataareavailable(http://www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/assessment/code-of-practice/index.html)orfromtheMediaRelationsOfficeemail:media.relations@ons.gsi.gov.uk.TheseNationalStatisticsareproducedtohighprofessionalstandardsandreleasedaccordingtothearrangementsapprovedbytheUKStatisticsAuthority.
18.
ContactdetailsforthisstatisticalbulletinKatherineKenttrade.in.goods@ons.gsi.gov.ukTelephone:+44(0)1633455829
MethodologyUKtradeQMI(https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/qmis/uktradeqmi)
19.