24
NYSE: DVN devonenergy.com State of the Oil and Gas Industry April 2016

State of the Oil and Gas Industry...Leverage the EnLink advantage —Largely eliminates midstream capital requirements —Cash distributions: ≈$270 million annually Maintain Financial

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    1

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: State of the Oil and Gas Industry...Leverage the EnLink advantage —Largely eliminates midstream capital requirements —Cash distributions: ≈$270 million annually Maintain Financial

NYSE: DVNdevonenergy.com

State of the Oil and Gas Industry

April 2016

Page 2: State of the Oil and Gas Industry...Leverage the EnLink advantage —Largely eliminates midstream capital requirements —Cash distributions: ≈$270 million annually Maintain Financial

Notices

2

Safe HarborSome of the information provided in this presentation includes “forward‐looking statements” as defined by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Words such as “forecasts," "projections," "estimates," "plans," "expectations," "targets,"  and other comparable terminology often identify forward‐looking statements. Such statements concerning future performance are subject to a variety of risks and uncertainties that could cause Devon’s actual results to differ materially from the forward‐looking statements contained herein, including as a result of the items described under "Risk Factors" in our most recent Form 10‐K.

Cautionary Note to Investors The United States Securities and Exchange Commission permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only proved, probable and possible reserves that meet the SEC's definitions for such terms, and price and cost sensitivities for such reserves, and prohibits disclosure of resources that do not constitute such reserves. This presentation may contain certain terms, such as resource potential, risked or unrisked resource, potential locations, risked or unrisked locations, exploration target size and other similar terms. These estimates are by their nature more speculative than estimates of proved, probable and possible reserves and accordingly are subject to substantially greater risk of being actually realized. The SEC guidelines strictly prohibit us from including these estimates in filings with the SEC. Investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 10‐K, available from us at Devon EnergyCorporation, Attn. Investor Relations, 333 West Sheridan, Oklahoma City, OK 73102‐5015. You can also obtain this form from the SEC by calling 1‐800‐SEC‐0330 or from the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov.

Page 3: State of the Oil and Gas Industry...Leverage the EnLink advantage —Largely eliminates midstream capital requirements —Cash distributions: ≈$270 million annually Maintain Financial

2009 Asset Portfolio

3

Brazil• 12 Offshore Blocks• Polvo Development

Azerbaijan• ACG Development

China• 5 Offshore Blocks• Panyu Development

GOM ShelfGOM Deepwater

U.S. Onshore• Barnett Shale• Permian Basin• Cana Woodford• Arkoma Woodford• Granite Wash• PRB CBM• Washakie• Bear Paw• Groesbeck• Carthage• Haynesville/Bossier

Canadian ConventionalHeavy Oil

Page 4: State of the Oil and Gas Industry...Leverage the EnLink advantage —Largely eliminates midstream capital requirements —Cash distributions: ≈$270 million annually Maintain Financial

2016 Asset PortfolioA Leading North American E&P

4

Heavy Oil

Barnett Shale

Rockies Oil

Anadarko Basin

Oil Assets

Liquids‐Rich Gas Assets

Eagle Ford

Permian Basin

Deep inventory of opportunities

₋ High‐quality Permian Basin, Anadarko Basin and Rockies positions

₋ Prolific Eagle Ford assets₋ World‐class heavy‐oil projects₋ Top‐tier liquids‐rich gas plays

Focused and balanced asset portfolio

₋ Proved reserves: 2.2 billion BOE₋ Net production: 681 MBOED in Q4₋ Upstream revenue: 68% oil in Q4

Page 5: State of the Oil and Gas Industry...Leverage the EnLink advantage —Largely eliminates midstream capital requirements —Cash distributions: ≈$270 million annually Maintain Financial

Approach to Current Environment

5

Protect the balance sheet

— Committed to investment‐grade credit ratings

— Balance capital investment with cash flow

— Upstream asset sales to reduce debt

Preserve financial flexibility

— Cash and credit facility availability: >$5 billion(1)

— No significant near‐term debt maturities

Leverage the EnLink advantage

— Largely eliminates midstream capital requirements

— Cash distributions: ≈$270 million annually

Maintain Financial Strength and Flexibility

(1) Pro Forma for the Felix transaction that closed January 2016 and equity offering that occurred in February 2016.

Page 6: State of the Oil and Gas Industry...Leverage the EnLink advantage —Largely eliminates midstream capital requirements —Cash distributions: ≈$270 million annually Maintain Financial

Significant Financial Flexibility

6

>$5 billion of liquidity(1) (credit facility maturing in late 2019)

Only financial covenant: debt‐to‐capitalization ratio <65% (24% at 12/31/15)

No significant debt maturities until December 2018

$350 $125

$750$700

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Debt Maturities – Next 5 Years(12/31/15, $ Millions)

Liquidity

Pro Forma Liquidity(1)($ Millions)

>$5,000

Cash

CreditFacility

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

(1) Pro Forma for the Felix transaction that closed January 2016 and equity offering that occurred in February 2016.

Page 7: State of the Oil and Gas Industry...Leverage the EnLink advantage —Largely eliminates midstream capital requirements —Cash distributions: ≈$270 million annually Maintain Financial

Disciplined Capital Allocation

7

2016 Outlook

E&P capital reduced by ≈75%

— Focused on top U.S. resource plays 

— Preserve operational continuity

Prepared to dynamically allocate capital

— Minimal service contracts >12 months

— No long‐term project commitments

— Leases held by production

Expect to reduce costs by >$1 billion annually

— Targeting operating and G&A cost savings of ≈$800 million annually

— Adjusted dividend saves ≈$300 million annually

Annualized Cost Savings

2016 E&P Capital Guidance$900 million ‐ $1.1 Billion

STACK33%

Delaware Basin20%

Eagle Ford20%

Heavy Oil18%

7%2%Rockies

Barnett

Dividend

G&A

Operating Costs

Value

>$1 Billion

$300 ‐ $400 MM

≈$300 MM

$400 ‐ $500 MM

Page 8: State of the Oil and Gas Industry...Leverage the EnLink advantage —Largely eliminates midstream capital requirements —Cash distributions: ≈$270 million annually Maintain Financial

Devon TodayA Leading North American E&P

8

Premier asset portfolio

Platform for sustainable growth

Delivering superior execution

Investment grade credit

Disciplined capital allocation

Page 9: State of the Oil and Gas Industry...Leverage the EnLink advantage —Largely eliminates midstream capital requirements —Cash distributions: ≈$270 million annually Maintain Financial

The Current Landscape

Page 10: State of the Oil and Gas Industry...Leverage the EnLink advantage —Largely eliminates midstream capital requirements —Cash distributions: ≈$270 million annually Maintain Financial

Supply and Demand Basics

10

Q1 ‘16 Global supply: 96.4 MMBD

U.S., 20%

China, 12%

India, 5%

Other Non‐OECD, 35%

Other OECD, 38%

Global Oil Demand

Q1 ‘16 Global demand: 94.8 MMBD

U.S., 13%

Russia, 12%

Saudi Arabia, 11%

Other OPEC, 30%

Other Non‐OPEC, 34%

Global Oil Supply

Page 11: State of the Oil and Gas Industry...Leverage the EnLink advantage —Largely eliminates midstream capital requirements —Cash distributions: ≈$270 million annually Maintain Financial

Crude Oil PricesForecast exceeds WTI futures

11

$100

$62

$79

$95 $94 $98$93

$49

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F

WTI NYMEX Crude Oil Price

WTI Annual Avg.  Futures at 4/13/2016 Consensus

Financial Crisis

OPEC Reduces Quota

Arab Spring

OPEC Quota increase

Iraq Supply FearsIEA Lowers Demand Forecast

Iran Deal Reached China Noise

Iran Supply Fears

OPEC Maintains Quota

Production freeze talk

Page 12: State of the Oil and Gas Industry...Leverage the EnLink advantage —Largely eliminates midstream capital requirements —Cash distributions: ≈$270 million annually Maintain Financial

Iran Production

U.S. DollarIncreased Demand

Where Are Crude Prices Today?

12

Lowering Prices Raising Prices

OPEC Production

2015 Hedges

GOM Startup ProjectsMacro & 

China Economy CAPEX 

Reductions

MegaprojectDelaysDrilling 

Efficiencies & Cost

Increased Global 

Militancy

Page 13: State of the Oil and Gas Industry...Leverage the EnLink advantage —Largely eliminates midstream capital requirements —Cash distributions: ≈$270 million annually Maintain Financial

‐43%

‐100%

‐80%

‐60%

‐40%

‐20%

0%

20%

Year‐on‐Year (2015‐2016) Change in Capex

Capex Guidance Weighted Average

North America E&P Capex Guidance

‐100%

‐80%

‐60%

‐40%

‐20%

0%

20%

Year‐On‐Year (2014‐2015) Change in Capex

Capex Guidance Weighted Average

CAPEX down over 65% in two years

Page 14: State of the Oil and Gas Industry...Leverage the EnLink advantage —Largely eliminates midstream capital requirements —Cash distributions: ≈$270 million annually Maintain Financial

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr

2014 2015 2016

Baker Hughes Land Rig Count vs. WTI Pricing

WTI (NYMEX) (r‐axis) Baker Hughes Land Rig Count

U.S. Onshore Rigs vs. WTI Pricing

Rig Count down 75% since January 2014

Page 15: State of the Oil and Gas Industry...Leverage the EnLink advantage —Largely eliminates midstream capital requirements —Cash distributions: ≈$270 million annually Maintain Financial

U.S. Production Forecasts

15

9.18

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

Jan 15

Feb 15

Mar 15

Apr 1

5

May 15

Jun 15

Jul 15

Aug 15

Sep 15

Oct 15

Nov 15

Dec 15

Jan 16

Feb 16

Mar 16

Apr 1

6

May 16

Jun 16

Jul 16

Aug 16

Sep 16

Oct 16

Nov 16

Dec 16

Jan 17

Feb 17

Mar 17

Apr 1

7

May 17

Jun 17

Jul 17

Aug 17

Sep 17

Oct  17

Nov 17

Dec 17

EIA U.S. Production Forecasts (MMBOD)Jan. '15 Apr. '16

9.69

8.11

7.79

Page 16: State of the Oil and Gas Industry...Leverage the EnLink advantage —Largely eliminates midstream capital requirements —Cash distributions: ≈$270 million annually Maintain Financial

Major Projects on Hold

• Nearly 70 major oil projects shelved worldwide in 2015

• Those projects worth $380 billion

• 27 billion Boe affected

16

Page 17: State of the Oil and Gas Industry...Leverage the EnLink advantage —Largely eliminates midstream capital requirements —Cash distributions: ≈$270 million annually Maintain Financial

Crude OilNon‐OPEC, Non‐U.S. Production

17

‐1.0

‐0.8

‐0.6

‐0.4

‐0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

‐1.0

‐0.8

‐0.6

‐0.4

‐0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Non‐OPEC, Non‐U.S. Production Growth Y/Y (MMBD)

Mexico North Sea Australia Russia

Malaysia Brazil Colombia Yemen

Canada Rest of Non‐OPEC, Non‐US Total (r axis)

Page 18: State of the Oil and Gas Industry...Leverage the EnLink advantage —Largely eliminates midstream capital requirements —Cash distributions: ≈$270 million annually Maintain Financial

OPEC Production

18

30

31

31

32

32

33

33

OPEC Production (MMBD)

Page 19: State of the Oil and Gas Industry...Leverage the EnLink advantage —Largely eliminates midstream capital requirements —Cash distributions: ≈$270 million annually Maintain Financial

Global Oil Demand

19

85

87

89

91

93

95

97

99

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F

Global Oil Demand (MMBD)

Page 20: State of the Oil and Gas Industry...Leverage the EnLink advantage —Largely eliminates midstream capital requirements —Cash distributions: ≈$270 million annually Maintain Financial

Crude OilOECD Inventory

20

1Q132Q13

3Q134Q13

1Q14

2Q14

3Q14

4Q14

1Q15

2Q15

3Q15

4Q15

1Q16

2Q163Q16

4Q161Q17

2Q17

3Q174Q17

1Q18

2Q18

3Q184Q18

1Q19

(200)

(100)

0

100

200

300

400

500

OECD Commercial Inventories Relative to the Five‐Year Average (MMBbl)

Increasing inventory; 

oversupplied$25‐$35

Returning to balance$40‐$50

Normalizing inventory levels

$65‐$70

Need supply growth equal to demand growth

$70+

Significant inventorydraws$50‐$60

Page 21: State of the Oil and Gas Industry...Leverage the EnLink advantage —Largely eliminates midstream capital requirements —Cash distributions: ≈$270 million annually Maintain Financial

How About Natural Gas?

21

• Minimal dry gas drilling

• Significant identified resources

• LNG export facilities come online 2016‐20

• Wildcards– Globally 

– Increased utilization and transition away from coal

– Megaprojects investments

– Weather, weather, weather0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Jan‐12

May‐12

Sep‐12

Jan‐13

May‐13

Sep‐13

Jan‐14

May‐14

Sep‐14

Jan‐15

May‐15

Sep‐15

Jan‐16

May‐16

Sep‐16

Jan‐17

May‐17

Sep‐17

U.S. Dry Gas Production (BCFD)Total Dry Marcellus/Utica (r‐axis)

Page 22: State of the Oil and Gas Industry...Leverage the EnLink advantage —Largely eliminates midstream capital requirements —Cash distributions: ≈$270 million annually Maintain Financial

Natural Gas 2015/16 Heating SeasonNot supportive of gas prices

22

 1,000

 1,500

 2,000

 2,500

 3,000

 3,500

 4,000

10‐Year Avg. 5‐Year Avg. 2011/12: "Winter that wasn't" 2015‐16

Total Season Heating Degree Days

Page 23: State of the Oil and Gas Industry...Leverage the EnLink advantage —Largely eliminates midstream capital requirements —Cash distributions: ≈$270 million annually Maintain Financial

Natural GasInventory

23

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49

U.S. Natural Gas Storage (TCF)5 Yr. Range 5 Yr. Avg. 2015 2016

Page 24: State of the Oil and Gas Industry...Leverage the EnLink advantage —Largely eliminates midstream capital requirements —Cash distributions: ≈$270 million annually Maintain Financial

Summary

• Time (and higher commodity prices) heals all wounds– Crude oil supply and demand fundamentals improving, although lack of investment will yield a multi‐year effect

– Natural gas is quietly going from bearish to bullish– Cash flow will be directed towards the balance sheet first and then drill bit

– Service companies will need to resurrect margins– Investment horizon risk pared back

• A couple key items that could further delay recovery– Battle of influence in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia vs Iran– Global macro health effects on demand

24