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from the mobile from the mobile internet to the internet to the
ubiquitous internetubiquitous internet
YonseiYonsei University Graduate Global IT and University Graduate Global IT and Telecommunications Telecommunications ProgrammeProgramme
Geneva, 24 July 2006
Lara SrivastavaITU New Initiatives Programme Director
Strategy and Policy UnitThe views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the ITU or its Membership.
Lara Srivastava can be contacted at [email protected]
©IT
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industry transitionsfrom local thinking to global thinkingfrom physical distance to virtual proximityfrom stable markets to fast-paced innovationfrom stringent regulation to increasing forbearancefrom low-speed to high-speedfrom frequent information flow to perpetual information flowfrom sometimes-on to always-onfrom fixed to mobile
NA
SA
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One mobile phone for every three human beings…
0
500
1'000
1'500
2'000
2'500
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
fixed linesmobile subscribers
2.14 billion mobile
1.28 billion fixed (est.)
Source: ITU
67% m
ore mobile
!
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… and one person out of every 6 is an internet user
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
95 96 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 050
5
10
15
20
25
30
35Mobile subscribersInternet usersMobile penetrationInternet penetration
Users (millions) and penetration per 100 pop.
the two giants of the ICT industry:Mobile andthe Internet
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Not surprisingly there is much excitement about combining the two
A merger of:mobile (wireless) technologiesand information and data communications serviceswith the flexibility of IP networks
Convergence of:terminalsnetworksservices and applicationscorporate structures
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What drives it? User requirements
on-the-go access to information communication & file sharingthirst for multimedia
Market trendsthe mobile revolutionrapid take-up of internet and broadbandincreased use of portable and palmtop computers, and multimedia devices
Technological Innovationhigh speed, cost effective mobile systemsintegrated computing applicationssmall, powerful, application-rich user devices
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Early mobile internet: Mobile messaging mania!
Korea: mid-2005 – 90 million text messages sent a dayUnited States: youth sending around 1.6 billion text messages a month (mid-2005), but with convergence of TV and messaging in formats such as ‘American Idol,’ analysts predict this to increase to 2.5 billion messages a month, over 30 billion messages sent a year. United Kingdom: 2005 saw 29 billion SMS sent, compared with ~20 billion in 2003
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Phenomenal SMS growth in the giant of the mobile world
SMS messages in China (millions)
440 6'07540'400
103'000
172'600
300'000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005Source: MIC
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and MMS begins to take off…(e.g. UK SMS vs MMS per user)
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
2003 Q1 2003 Q2 2003 Q3 2003 Q4 2004 Q10.000
0.100
0.200
0.300
0.400
0.500
0.600
MMS messages per userSMS messages per user
Source: OFCOM, Operators
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money in the pocket: certainly…but whose pocket?By some estimates, the total SMS revenues in 2005 were about 75 Billion USD. Compare this to:
Global box office ~ 25-30 billion USD (US only 9 billion). Global music industry revenues ~ 35 billion.Videogaming, consoles and all software ~ 40 billionSMS outdoes them all
However, SMS is still priced above cost!Operators have in fact been increasing the retail price of SMS instead of decreasing it (e.g. roaming premiums introduced after SMS became “popular”)How will this encourage future services?
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the numbers on affordability
Source: ITU World Information Society Report
0.060.07
0.10
0.140.16
Americas Asia Africa Europe Oceania
Average price of an SMS, in US$, 2005
cheap-to-produce services, e.g. SMS, priced well-above cost in some regions
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Cos
t (U
SD)
mobile basket23%
2003 2003 20032005 2005 2005
20 hours' Internet access25%
broadband($/100 kbps) 40%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Cos
t (U
SD)
mobile basket23%
2003 2003 20032005 2005 2005
20 hours' Internet access25%
broadband($/100 kbps) 40%
Average cost of ICT usage worldwide, in US$, 2003-2005
price of mobile services hasn’t decreased at same rate as broadband, internet
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Europe seeing the impact of the lack of affordability
(the case of Sweden)
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meanwhile, in Japan, digital music is more popular over mobiles than PCs!
Internet activities with a personal computer in Japan (2005)
55.4%
54.4%
50.2%
39.7%
21.7%
19.1%
16.3%
15.1%
10.6%
10.0%
8.8%
7.1%
4.0%
2.5%
2.4%
Acquisition of information about goods, services, companies, shops, etc.
Communication and/or information exchange w ith off ices, friends, etc.
Acquisition of new s and/or w eather forecast
Purchase and/or dealing of merchandise and/or services
Acquisition of information about central and/or local governments
Acquisition and/or audition of (animated and/or still) graphical digital content
Acquisition and/or audition of musical digital content
Application for quiz campaign and/or lottery, reply to questionnaire
No response
Participation in on-line games (netw orking games)
Internet banking
Job hunting
Other responses
E-application, tax return and/or report tow ard central/local governments
Correspondence course over internet (e-learning)
Internet activities with a mobile phone in Japan (2005)
69.5%
26.2%
25.1%
13.3%
11.2%
8.6%
6.8%
3.1%
1.9%
1.5%
1.5%
0.2%
0.0%
1.2%
22.4%
Communication and/or information exchange w ith off ices, friends, etc.
Acquisition and/or audition of musical digital content
Acquisition of new s and/or w eather forecast
Acquisition of information about goods, services, companies, shops, etc.
Acquisition and/or audition of (animated and/or still) graphical digital content
Purchase and/or dealing of merchandise and/or services
Application for quiz campaign and/or lottery, reply to questionnaire
Participation in on-line games (netw orking games)
Internet banking
Acquisition of information about central and/or local governments
Job hunting
Correspondence course over internet (e-learning)
E-application, tax return and/or report tow ard central/local governments
Other responses
No response
Source: MIC
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Much has to do with the success of services like i-mode
April 2002: 32 million subscribers December 2005: 85.6 subscribers
Growth of i-mode subscribers 2000-2002
Source: http://www.nttdocomo.com
Growth of i-mode subs 2004-2006
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mobile internet penetration
Penetration rates of internet-enabled mobile phones (Sept 2004)
94.1%
89.0%
33.5%
28.2%
22.1%
21.7%
21.4%
20.0%
18.9%
14.8%
Japan
Korea
United States
Austria
Finland
Netherlands
Hong Kong, China
Australia
Italy
Germany
Source: MIC, 3G mobile, as cited in ITU New Initiatives Programme, The Regulatory Environment for Future Mobile Multimedia Services, 2006
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key factors for making the internet mobile
• Avoiding the replication of the fixed-line internet access experience• awareness of issues such as screen size• understanding the user
• Harmonization of content– Open source, open access
• e.g. Japan
• Cultural and locally-relevant content• Affordable, cost-based pricing• Appropriate policy/regulatory framework
• including the protection of IP rights ….and….
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Growth of W-CDMA and CDMA 20001x
Users
Countries with networks
Growth of IMT-2000 worldwide(in millions of users, year-end)
269m
134m
78m
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2003 2004 2005
Growth 71%
Growth 100%
Number of countries with 3G/IMT-2000 services
1 418
41
68
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
78
2005
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W-CDMA subscriber growth (Jan 2005 – December 2005)
44.42 million W-CDMA subs worldwide at year-end 2005
Source: 3G today
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IMT-2000:W-CDMA, CDMA 2000 1x, CDMA 2000 1x EV-DO
IMT-2000 Subscribers:324 million “IMT-2000” users in total in March 2006
A head start for CDMA 2000?CDMA2000 1x seems to have a head start on W-CDMA for nowCDMA 2000 1x was a more natural shift from 2G cdmaOne - the jump from GSM to W-CDMA was a more substantial upgrade another reason cited is the high licensing fees for 3G in Europe (UMTS)
Classification:Although ITU includes CDMA2000 in the IMT-2000 family, it can be said that it is more appropriate to refer to CDMA 2000 1x EV-DO when talking about mobile broadbandthere are more W-CDMA subs than CDMA 1x EV-DO
of which 86.2 million W-CDMA (56.1) & 1x EV-DO (30.1) only
Speeds: W-CDMA: Average 250-300 kbit/s, theoretical 2 Mbit/sW-CDMA HSDPA: Average 2 Mbit/s, theoretical 14 Mbit/sCDMA 2000 1x: Average 60-100 kbit/s, theoretical 153 kbit/sCDMA 2000 1x EV-DO: Average 400-800 kbit/s, theoretical 2.4 Mbit/s
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as high-speed networks are deployed, services will diversify
Global mobile entertainment revenues (in USD millions)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Music Games Gambling Video Personalisation Adult Total
Source: Informa
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…and costs will drop
Source: Nokia, as cited by UMTS Forum
but that question remains: are/will retail prices drop sufficiently?
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the trade-off? mobility and speed
high-speed
high-mobility
low-mobility
low-speed
- xDSL- FTTH - Wi-Fi
- 2G, e.g. GSM - 2.5G- early 3G
Mobile Broadband:3G +Mobile-Fi? WiMax ?
Body/personalarea networks
e.g .- RFID
- Zigbee
still largely untapped markets !
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mobile broadband untapped revenue opportunities
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In addition to 3G+, new developments for mobile data
include: 802.16 & 802.20
IEEE 802.16 or WiMaxWorldwide Interoperability for Microwave accessCapacity: max 70 Mbit/s over 50 km
IEEE 802.20 also known as “Mobile-Fi”Optimized for high-mobility environments
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End-user devices: the mobile still dominates – why?
Economies of scale2 billion and growing
Wide Appealyoung, old, male, female, rich, poor…
Size and portabilitySmaller than the laptop
Emotional Attachmentmany can’t leave home without it
Fashion and identityAccessory, personal diary, status symbol
Physical proximityAt day, at night, standing still, on the move
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complementary strategies …
IMT-2000
WLANtype
Cellular2nd gen.
Short RangeConnectivity
WirelinexDSL
otherentities
DigitalBroadcast
return channele.g. cellular
download channel
New RadioInterface
Services andApplications
IP based Core Network
IMT-2000
WLANtype
Cellular2nd gen.
Short RangeConnectivity
WirelinexDSL
otherentities
DigitalBroadcast
return channele.g. cellular
download channel
New RadioInterface
Services andApplications
IP based Core Network
Source: ITU WP 8F
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mobile, portable…
what’s next – the ubiquitous internet?
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Ubiquitous Networks and Ubiquitous Computing
Ubiquitous computingEmbedding computational power into everyday items “intelligence” moves to the edges
e.g. smart objects/structures, intelligent appliances
Ubiquitous networksalways-on, anyone, everywhere network accessGiving network access to “anything”In this way, everything becomes ‘networked’NGN networks will most likely be the core/backbone infrastructure for deploying ubiquitous networks
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short-range technologies key to ubiquitous networking
typically in the “low-mobility, low speed” areaSome replace wires, other serve to multiply network connectionsExamples:
BluetoothUltra Wide BandZigbeeRFID (radio frequency ID)
Sensors
Mobile:2G/2.5G
Ubiquitous
e.g. PAN
Wireless:WLAN
High mobility
Low mobility
Low speed High speed
Portable:3G & others
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the radio revolution densest radio systems in the world are terrestrial radio and cellular …but we are soon entering a new era:
the ratio of radios to humans is nearing 1 to 1in which this ratio could exceed 1000 to 1
radios would be all around us, becoming “ambient” in the environment , through technologies like RFID … thereby radically transforming technology access
Making it “indistinguishable” from daily life
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RFID and sensors at the core of this revolution
RFIDThrough systems including tags and readers, RFID can identify and track itemsRFID tags can be very small (~ a grain of rice and even smaller) Networked RFID allows for smaller and smaller things to be connected
SensorsSensors and networks of sensors can complement RFID by enabling the collection of additional and relevant data, e.g. temperature, pressure, presence of bacteria etc…
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growth of radio & sensors
Adoption of wireless sensor networks (2004 -2010)
0
1
10
100
1'000
10'000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Sales
Price
Units
Source: ITU Internet Reports 2005: The Internet of Things, adapted from Harbor Research
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
USD millions
supply chain
other
transport
pharmaceutical
retail
Source: ITU Internet Reports 2005: The Internet of Things, adapted from Juniper Research
RFID Growth (Western Europe)
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more convergence: mobile RFIDMobility is a natural extension of RFID deployment
Ability to track and monitor everyday things using a device one would carry anywaydata verification at the point of delivery and real-time data transfer (where fixed readers can’t reach) extends the reach of the “ubiquitous internet”
The integration of RFID capabilities in mobile phone is already underway, e.g .
the release a couple of years ago of Nokia mobile RFID kit for business, and the imminent release of the consumer phonethe US DoD planning to purchase mobile RFID devicesstandardization is advancing in forums such as NFC
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radio tags expanding the network
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creating smart spaces for a ubiquitous internet
Source: Ubiquitous ID Center
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Some important challenges ahead
Pricing, affordability and new billing models Fostering competitiveservices and healthy content marketHarmonization of regulatory approachesSpectrum coordination, flexibilityStandards for mobile ubiquity (RFID, NFC etc.)
Network integrity/securityGovernance of resources Privacy and data protection
ITU Internet Reports 2005THE INTERNET OF THINGS
Over 200 pages of analysis, including statistical annex
www.itu.int/internetofthings/
THE ITU NEW INITIATIVES PROGRAMMEResearch & policy analysis (reports, workshops)on a wide range of topics since 1999
www.itu.int/ni
ITU Internet Reports 2006
digital.lifedigital.life
Coming in December 2006!
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International Telecommunication Union
Lara SrivastavaITU New Initiatives Programme Director
t h a n k s